The European Agency for Safety and Health at [618482]

The European Agency for Safety and Health at
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doi:10.2802/39554
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ISBN 978-92-9191-966-6
Safety and health at work is everyone’s concern. It’s good for you. It’s good for business.Green jobs and
occupational safety and health:
Foresight on new and emerging risks
associated with new technologies by 2020
Report
TE-RO-12-003-EN-CGreen jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020ISSN 1831-9343
European Agency for Safety and Health at Work

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Green jobs and
occupational safety and health:
Foresight on new and emerging risks
associated with new technologies by 2020
Report

Based on a report by:
Authors:
Sam Bradbrook, Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL)
Martin Duckworth, SAMI Consulting
Peter Ellwood, HSL
Michal Miedzinski, Technopolis Group
Joe Ravetz, SAMI Consulting
John Reynolds, SAMI Consulting
Cartoon artist: Joe Ravetz in collaboration with John Reynolds, SAMI Consulting
Project management:
Emmanuelle Brun and Xabier Irastorza, EU-OSHA
Cover pictures: (from left to right)
Kim Hansen, Post-processing by Richard Bartz and Kim Hansen
Felix Kramer (CalCars)
U.S. Air Force photo/Airman 1st Class Nadine Y. Barclay
This report was commissioned by the European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA). Its contents, including any opinio ns
and/or conclusions expressed, are those of the author(s) alone and do not necessarily re /f_lect the views of EU-OSHA.
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Cataloguing data can be found at the end of this publication.
Luxembourg: Publications O ffice of the European Union, 2013
ISBN 978-92-9191-966-6
doi:10.2802/39554
© European Agency for Safety and Health at Work, 2013
Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.
Printed in Luxembourg
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EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 3Contents
Figures and tables 6
Executive summary 7
1. Introduction 19
1.1. Context 20
1.2. New and emerging risks 20
1.3. Green jobs 21
1.4. Introduction to scenarios 22
1.5. Project phases and structure of the report 23
1.6. Acknowledgements 23
2. Methodology 25
2.1. Project initiation 26
2.2. Project Phase  1: Contextual drivers of change 26
2.2.1. WP 1.1: Review of existing information on contextual drivers of change 26
2.2.2. WP 1.2: Consolidation of the list of contextual drivers of  change 27
2.2.3. WP 1.3: Selection of key contextual drivers 28
2.3. Project Phase  2: Key technologies 28
2.3.1. WP 2.1: Review of existing information on technological innovations 29
2.3.2. WP 2.2: Consolidation of the list of technological innovations 29
2.3.3. WP 2.3: Selection of key technologies 30
2.4. Project Phase  3: Scenarios 31
2.4.1. WP 3.1: Scenario development 31
2.4.2. Technology workshops 31
2.4.3. WP 3.2: Testing and consolidating the scenarios 32
3. Phase  1: Contextual drivers of change 33
3.1. Consolidated driver set 34
3.2. Selection of key contextual drivers 38
4. Phase  2: Key new technologies 39
4.1. Results of the literature review 40
4.2. Consolidation of the list of technological innovations 40
4.2.1. Interview programme 40
4.2.2. Internet questionnaire 43
4.2.3. Comparison between the interview programme and Internet survey results 43
4.2.4. Consolidated list of technologies 43
4.3. Workshop on the selection of key technologies 44
4.3.1. Energy technologies 44
4.3.2. Non-energy technologies 44
4.3.3. Voting on selected technologies 45
4.4. Selection of the key technologies for Phase  3 47

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
4 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work5. Phase  3: Scenarios 49
5.1. Introduction to the three scenarios 50
5.2. Constructing the base scenarios 50
5.2.1. Analysing the drivers of change 50
5.2.2. Choosing scenario axes 50
5.2.3. Defining the scenario space 52
5.2.4. Defining the Scenarios 53
5.2.5. Allocating the remaining drivers 55
5.3. Base scenarios 57
5.3.1. Win-Win (Base scenario) 57
5.3.2. Bonus World (Base scenario) 59
5.3.3. Deep Green (Base scenario) 61
5.3.4. Social context of work in the base scenarios 62
5.4. Exploration of new and emerging OSH risks through the scenarios — Validating
and extending the scenario tool 64
5.4.1. Wind energy 64
5.4.2. Green construction 70
5.4.3. Bioenergy and energy aspects of biotechnology 76
5.4.4. Waste management and recycling 81
5.4.5. Green transport 87
5.4.6. Green manufacturing, robotics and automation 93
5.4.7. Domestic and small-scale energy systems 100
5.4.8. Batteries and energy storage 106
5.4.9. Energy transmission and distribution 110
5.4.10. OSH factors common across technologies 113
6. Consolidation and testing of  the scenarios 117
6.1. OSH challenges and  opportunities 118
6.2. Consolidation workshop exercises 121
6.3. Conclusions from the consolidation workshop 125
7. Scenario presentation 127
7.1. Introduction to scenarios 128
7. 2. Win-Win 128
7. 3. Bonus World 135
7.4. Deep Green 142
7. 5. Using the scenarios 149
8. Conclusions 151
8.1. New and emerging challenges for OSH in green jobs 152
8.2. The foresight and scenario-building process 153
9. References 154

EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 5Annexes 159
Annex 1: Participants at project kick-off meeting 160
Annex 2: Literature sources for contextual drivers of change 161
Annex  3: Drivers of change for green jobs and potential health and safety risks in green jobs 171
Annex  4: Participants in Phase  1 Interview programme 177
Annex  5: Participants in Phase  2 Interview programme 178
Annex  6: Consolidated list of technologies 179
Annex  7: Phase  2 Workshop participants 195
Annex  8: Attendance at Phase  3 Technology workshops 196
Annex  9: Participants at Phase  3 Policy workshop 203
Annex  10: Phase  2 Interview results 204
Annex  11: Phase  2 Internet survey results 206
Annex  12: Scenario  4 208

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
6 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkFigures and tables
Figure  1: The three scenario axes 10
Figure  2: Combined responses from interviews and the Internet survey: preferred technology for Phase  3 44
Figure  3: Four scenarios plotted by Economic growth v  Green values axes 52
Figure  4: Three-dimensional view of scenario axes 53
Figure  5: Green innovation shown as a  proportion of total innovation 53
Table  1: Key technology innovations for Phase  3 9
Table  2: Green recovery in the US 22
Table  3: Ranking of drivers after voting exercise 38
Table  4: Technologies (left hand column) and sectors (top line) resulting from the literature review show
significant overlaps 41
Table  5: Results of the workshop votes, initial conclusions, interviews and Internet survey 48
Table  6: Plausible high and low outcomes for economic growth in Europe 50
Table  7: Clusters of drivers, and associated LOW and HIGH outcomes 51
Table  8: Summary of the base scenario definitions 52
Table  9: Summary of remaining scenario definitions 53
Table  10: Outcomes of remaining drivers 55
Table  11: Allocation of remaining drivers to scenarios 56
Table  12: Social context of work across the three scenarios 63
Table  13: Technology developments: Wind energy 64
Table  14: Technology developments: Construction 71
Table  15: Technology developments: Bioenergy 76
Table  17: Technology developments: Transport 88
Table  18: Technology developments: Manufacturing 94
Table  19: Technology developments: Domestic and small-scale energy 101
Table  20: Technology developments: Batteries and energy storage 106
Table  21: Technology developments: Energy transmission and distribution 113
Table  22: Summary of OSH issues identified as ‘cross-technology’ 114
Table  23: Priority OSH challenges and opportunities by scenario 121
Table  24: Potential OSH policies supported within each scenario 123
Table  25: Potential OSH policies that are scenario-dependent 123

Executive summary

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
8 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkIntroduction
This report describes the project ‘Foresight of new and emerg –
ing risks to occupational safety and health associated with new
technologies in green jobs by 2020’, carried out for the European
Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA).
The outcome of the exercise is a  set of scenarios covering a  range
of new technologies in green jobs and the impact they could
have on workers’ health and safety. They are intended to inform
EU policymakers, Member States’ governments, and trade unions
and employers, so that they can take decisions to shape the future
of occupational safety and health (OSH) in green jobs towards
safer and healthier workplaces.
The project was conducted by a  consortium of the UK Health and
Safety Laboratory, SAMI Consulting and the Technopolis Group.
Project phases and
structure of the report
This project was conducted over three phases and the methodol –
ogy for each of these is described in Chapter  2.
t
The /f_irst phase was to select the key contextual drivers for
new and emerging OSH risks associated with new technolo –
gies in green jobs by 2020. These drivers were used to de /f_ine
the base scenarios. The descriptions of the drivers and the
results of the selection process are provided in Chapter  3.
t
The second phase selected key technologies that could cre –
ate new and emerging OSH risks in green jobs. The data and
results of this phase are in Chapter  4.
t
The third phase of the project developed the scenarios .
Three base scenarios were developed and then used through
a series of technology workshops to explore the respective
development of the key technologies and the new and
emerging OSH risks to which they could lead in each of the
three base scenarios. The information gathered informed the
production of the full scenarios. The scenario development
and the results of the technology workshops are described
in Chapter  5. The scenarios were tested and consolidated in
a further workshop, which also served to demonstrate how
the scenarios can be used to develop policy options address –
ing the emerging OSH challenges identi /f_ied. The results of
this workshop are set out in Chapter  6.
The three scenarios are presented in Chapter  7 together with
guidance on their use.
The conclusions drawn from the process and /f_indings are set
out in Chapter  8.Contextual drivers of change
Sixteen key drivers were identi /f_ied as having the greatest impor –
tance for the creation of the green economy in Europe up to
about  2020:
t
environment: carbon emissions, e ffects of climate change
(temperature rise, natural disasters), shortage of natural
resources (e.g. fossil fuels and water);
t
government incentives: policies, grants, loans, and subsidies
for green activities;
t
government controls: taxes, carbon pricing, duties, and
legislation;
t
public opinion: the public’s views on climate change and its
causes;
t
public behaviour: demand for green products, support for
recycling;
t
economic growth: the state of European economies and avail –
ability of resources to tackle environmental issues;
t
international issues: e ffect of globalisation on the EU and other
economies, and its e ffect on competition for scarce natural
resources, driving the need for green activities;
t
energy security issues: need for energy security, desire to
reduce the dependency on energy imports;
t
renewable energy technologies: progress in their develop –
ment and availability;
t
fossil fuel technologies: development of technologies to allow
continued use of fossil fuels (carbon capture and storage and
clean coal technologies);
t
nuclear energy: the extent of its use, and whether it is regarded
as ‘green’;
t
electricity distribution, storage and use: development of tech –
nology to allow increased decentralised renewable electricity
generation;
t
energy e fficiency improvements: energy-e fficient new build –
ings, retro /f_itting of old ones, promotion of energy-e fficient
public transport, less energy-demanding manufacturing, etc.;
t
growth in waste and recycling driven by resource shortages,
public opinion and legislation;
t
other technologies: availability of non-energy technologies,
such as nanotechnologies and biotechnologies; and

Executive summary
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 9Table 1: Key technology innovations for Phase  3
Technology Subtopics
Wind energy (industrial
scale)Onshore and o ffshore
Green construction
technologies (buildings)Energy e fficiency measures: new build and retro /f_it (insulation, heat retaining windows, ventilation
with heat recovery, energy-e fficient lighting); renewable energy (solar thermal and cooling,
geothermal heating and cooling, advanced monitoring systems, photovoltaic, wind energy, feed-in
to grid, combined heat and power); new techniques (o ff-site construction/prefabrication); new
materials (low-carbon cements, nanomaterials); increasing use of information and communications
technology (ICT) and robotics and automation
Bioenergy and the
energy applications of
biotechnologyBiofuels (diesel, ethanol, etc.), biomass combustion, biomass-co- /f_iring (see also clean coal
technologies), anaerobic digestion (biogas production), land /f_ill gas utilisation, biomass gasi /f_ication,
pyrolysis
Biocatalysts, engineered cell factories, plant biofactories, novel process conditions/industrial-
scale-up, biore /f_ining and very-large-scale bioprocessing (VLSB), meso-scale manufacture,
agricultural technologies, synthetic biology, genetic modi /f_ication
Waste processing Collection, sorting and processing of waste for recycling or for energy production; recycling of
materials and components
Green transport Electric, hybrid and biofuel road vehicles, battery technology, hydrogen and fuel cells, electri /f_ication
of railways, biofuels in aircraft, novel materials in aircraft, improved e fficiency of internal
combustion engines (ICE), intelligent transport systems (ITS), refuelling/recharging infrastructure
Green manufacturing
technologies and
processes, including
robotics and automationAdvanced manufacturing techniques, distributed manufacture (personal fabrication — 3D printing
and rapid manufacture/rapid prototyping), lean methods, biotechnologies, green chemistry,
nanomaterials
Use in manufacturing, agriculture, construction and other industries
Electricity transmission,
distribution and storage,
and domestic and small-
scale renewable energySmart grid, smart metering, distributed generation, combined heat and power, smart appliances
Batteries, /f_lywheels, supercapacitors, superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES), hydrogen,
pumped hydro, compressed air energy storage (CAES), liquid nitrogen and liquid oxygen energy
storage
Battery types: lead-acid, lithium-ion, sodium sulphur (zebra), sodium nickel chloride
Decentralised energy generation technologies: wind, solar thermal and solar photovoltaic,
bioenergy, geothermal energy, combined heat and power, fuel cells
Nanotechnologies and
nanomaterialsA very wide range of potential applications, including improved batteries, engine additives, new
composite materials, materials used in construction (e.g. pavements/bricks/asphalts that capture
environmental pollutants, nanocoatings/nanopaints transforming solar energy into electricity,
‘green’ antifouling nanocoatings), agriculture and forestryt
demographics and the workforce: a  growing, ageing popu –
lation and changing lifestyles may drive the need for more
energy demand and/or more energy e fficiency; the age –
ing workforce may result in skill loss, and in di fferent OSH
needs but also bene /f_its; the ageing workforce, as well as
the impact of climate change may lead to more migrant
workers.
Key new technologies
Phase  2 of the project was to identify and describe the key new
technologies that may be introduced in green jobs by 2020,
which may lead to new and emerging risks in the workplace. Descriptions of all the key technologies, including preliminary
information, the potential for development and health and safety
aspects are presented in Chapter  4. The development of these
key technologies in each scenario and the exploration of their
impact on OSH was considered as part of the Phase  3 technology
workshops (Chapter  5).
Some of the technologies initially identi /f_ied were related to spe –
ci/f_ic industries (e.g. carbon capture and storage) while others were
cross-cutting technologies that impacted on many sectors and
many of the other technologies identi /f_ied (e.g. nanotechnologies
or robotics automation and arti /f_icial intelligence).
The key technologies /f_inally selected for exploration in the sce –
narios in Phase  3 are shown in Table  1.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
10 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkConstruction of the scenarios
Each of the 16 drivers was reviewed and the uncertainty inherent
within that driver over the period to 2025 was identi /f_ied. A  period
beyond 2020 was chosen so that risks, the early signs of which
might emerge in 2020, could be identi /f_ied.
Twelve of the 16 drivers and associated outcomes were seen to fall
naturally into three broad clusters around the following themes:
t
economic growth: this includes both the external impact
of global growth and growth in Europe and determines the
availability of funding for green activities;
t
green values: this relates to the willingness of people and
organisations to change their behaviour to achieve green
outcomes and the willingness of governments to implement
regulatory and /f_iscal policies to promote green activities; and
t
innovation in green technology — the development and
exploitation of green technologies, which will deliver reduced
resource use, less pollution and fewer environmental impacts.
These clusters de /f_ine the scenario axes that form the framework
for generating the base scenarios. The remaining four drivers
(nuclear energy, demographics and the workforce, energy secu –
rity issues and international issues) were later incorporated into
the scenarios.
Each cluster of drivers (economic growth, green values, innova –
tion in green technology) was associated with a  single axis de /f_in-
ing its state, which could be combined to de /f_ine a  base scenario
(Figure  1).
Figure 1: The three scenario axes
AxisScenarios
Win-Win Bonus
WorldDeep
Green
Economic growth High High Low
Green values Strong Weak Strong
Rate of innovation
in green
technologiesHigh Medium  − Medium  +
The /f_irst two axes (economic growth and green values) were
treated as independent axes. The third axis, the rate of innova –
tion in green technologies, depends to some extent on the values
chosen for the /f_irst two. This axis is linked to economic growth,
which will in /f_luence the total level of innovation, and to green culture and energy e fficiency, which will in /f_luence the green
proportion of the innovation. It was considered that the level
of green innovation was likely to be slightly lower in the Bonus
World scenario than in the Deep Green scenario. These levels were
therefore speci /f_ied as ‘Medium  −’ and ‘Medium  +’ respectively.
Although these two scenarios have similar rates of innovation in
green technology, the nature of this technology would be quite
different. In Bonus World, it is driven by a  pro/f_it motive, while
in Deep Green, it is implemented to achieve a  green outcome.
This was used to generate a  set of base scenarios for the Phase  3
technology workshops, in which the potential developments of
the key technologies and the associated new and emerging OSH
risks were explored. This information was then added to the base
scenarios to generate the /f_inal scenarios. This process and the
results are described in Chapter  5.
A /f_inal workshop was held in order to test and re /f_ine the scenarios
by presenting them to a  range of policymakers as well as OSH
and technology experts, and by using them in exercises aimed at
demonstrating the potential value of scenarios in policymaking
and strategic planning.
Workshop participants were allotted to a  single scenario for the
duration of the workshop. After a  short initial exercise to famil –
iarise them with their scenario, they were asked to undertake
the following tasks:
1. select the key OSH challenges and opportunities from Phase  2
in each scenario;
2. develop speci /f_ic policy options for each scenario to address
the respective challenges and opportunities selected, and
how they would be implemented in the speci /f_ic scenario
considered;
3. review these policies across the three scenarios, and test their
relevance and robustness (so-called wind-tunnelling) as well
as how they would be implemented in all scenarios.
These activities are described in Chapter  6.
The scenarios produced
Scenarios are tools to generate discussion and insight into dif –
ferent elements of the future, rather than predictions. The sce –
nario narratives produced are not evidence-based conclusions,
but rather are based on assumptions and their possible conse –
quences. Other scenarios are equally possible and there is no right
or wrong choice, since the future may contain elements of each
scenario. The full scenarios are presented in Chapter  7. Shorter
versions of the scenarios looking back from 2025 (the year 2025
was chosen in order to stretch thinking so that changes after
2020, the early signs of which might be evident by 2020, would
be included) are now described.

Executive summary
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 11Win-Win
High economic growth
Looking back from 2025, after a  slow start in 2012, growth
across the EU and OECD returned to the levels prior to the eco –
nomic crash of 2008. Developing countries also experienced
high growth similar to that in the /f_irst decade of the century.
High green values
Advances in climate science started to show how vulnerable
we are becoming to climate change. Growing public concerns
encouraged governments to introduce green policies, including
those leading to deep and progressive cuts in carbon emissions.
There was strong approval for green behaviour by corporations
and individuals. This was reinforced by concerns over resource
shortages (food, commodities, minerals, water and energy.)
High level of innovation in green technologies
Green growth has increasingly been seen as vital for a  sustain –
able future. Corporate pro /f_its and access to /f_inance have sup –
ported high levels of investment in new business opportunities
and infrastructure. The rate of technological developments
has accelerated with high levels of innovation. A  high propor –
tion of the innovation has been aimed at achieving a  green
outcome and generating future pro /f_its.
Society and work
Most people in the EU now feel prosperous and place a  higher
value on the preservation of the environment, human life
and well-being. The strong economy allows governments to
address the increasing demands for welfare and to invest in
education.
There is high employment and many new jobs and new prod –
ucts are now being created over ever-shorter timescales, which
can lead to new hazards and risks if not designed with OSH
taken into consideration.
Occupational safety and health
Overview
In a buoyant economy, funds are available for investment in
safety, but the high pace of innovation and the rapid roll-out of
new technologies and new products, and the creation of new
jobs requiring new skills mean that a  wider population faces
new risks over shorter timescales. It is, therefore, important
that OSH assessments are undertaken early in the develop –
ment cycle of a  technology or product so that the pace of
development doesn’t leave OSH behind.
Wind energy
The risks are multiplied manyfold in o ffshore wind farms, which
have the potential to become very dangerous worksites. With
so many large turbines in ever-deeper water, ever further from safe haven, access issues are the dominant OSH consideration.
Working sites are more widely dispersed, with lower pro /f_it
margins to pay for safety than in the oil and gas industries.
Construction is hazardous and with the large numbers of
turbines come skill shortages as wind competes with other
technologies for quali /f_ied sta ff. Specialist vessels are required
to handle large turbines in deep water, and there are still issues
over foundation strategies (especially as the seabed is di fferent
for each turbine in a  wind farm), transport of foundations from
yards, and longer-term issues over removal of foundations.
Novel turbine designs have brought engineering unknowns. In
the hostile environment, maintenance is demanding, although
more reliable electronic infrastructure monitoring devices help
to minimise unpredicted maintenance and improved quality of
equipment has helped reliability. The need for workers to live
so far o ffshore is leading to work organisation issues and psy –
chosocial problems. New composites and nanomaterials used
for the manufacture of wind turbines have possibly introduced
new health hazards for workers involved in manufacturing,
maintenance, decommissioning and recycling.
Green construction and building retro /f_itting
Off-site automated construction of modular buildings has
improved on-site safety as far fewer tasks are undertaken
on site. However, as building moves into factories, new risks
emerge as workers are exposed to novel substances increas –
ingly used in construction material (e.g. phase change materi –
als, heat storage chemicals, novel surface coatings, nanoma –
terials and /f_ibrous composites).
On-site issues arise from mixing automated with traditional,
manual activities. There are risks during the connection of
services (e.g. water and electricity) to prefabricated modules
but, with the correct design, these should be negligible. There
are also electrical risks as old and new buildings have to be
integrated into the smart grid, incorporating smart appliances,
energy storage technologies, etc. In increasingly crowded cit –
ies, the trend of developing basements has led to increasing
underground congestion with associated OSH implications
due to working in con /f_ined spaces, the risk of collapsing struc –
tures or drilling into existing cabling.
Combinations of new energy sources in buildings (e.g. pho –
tovoltaics (PV), geothermal and biomass) bring new hazards
and unexpected accidents — in particular as there are many
new players entering the sector.
With a  high level of new build, there is a  large quantity of
old building materials from demolition to deal with, exposing
workers to hazards. Retro /f_itting of existing buildings exposes
workers to increasing roof work as they install solar panels and
small-scale wind turbines, with the risk of falls and exposure
to lead and asbestos as they disturb old structures.
Bioenergy
The storage and handling of biomass expose workers to physi –
cal, chemical and biological risks and to risks from /f_ire and

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
12 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Workexplosion. High temperatures, and sometimes high pressures,
are used in pyrolysis (350–550  °C) and gasi /f_ication (over 700  °C).
There is also a  potential issue with the increased variability in
the constitution of gas derived from biomass compared to
fossil fuels. Third-generation biofuels have the potential to
give rise to new biological risks. There may also be operational
risks associated with the scaling-up of third-generation biofuel
production from demonstration plant to commercial scale.
With the widespread adoption of bioenergy, many workers are
potentially at risk. Agriculture increasingly turns to biomass
production and work in forestry is likely to intensify. Waste
products from biomass can be toxic (e.g. wood ash contains
heavy metals and is strongly alkaline).
Waste management and recycling
The political pressure to recycle means that workers are poten –
tially exposed to a  very large range of materials: increasing
volumes of waste result in di fficulties in identifying the prov –
enance and composition of waste. However, improvements
in labelling, tracking and auditing of materials are helping in
the identi /f_ication process.
Workers have to deal with hazardous waste, not just valuable
waste, including material from urban mining and recycling of
industrial waste. Nanomaterials are also increasingly appear –
ing in waste as their use in manufacturing becomes more
widespread. However, the increasing use of robots to sort
and handle waste helps improve workers’ health and safety.
The zero-waste economy entails dealing with the most di fficult
tail end of the waste stream: such wastes in concentrated form
are hazards that need special handling.
Green transport
Maintenance of complex networks coupled with skills short –
ages presents an important OSH challenge. Most new vehicles
are electric or hybrid. Rapid recharging or battery swaps may
present hazards, as will the maintenance of electri /f_ied vehicles
(EV). As electric vehicles are increasingly maintained by inde –
pendent garages rather than specialists, there are electrocu –
tion risks since workers are not familiar with the high voltages
involved. Risks of /f_ire or explosion are particularly high during
quick charging of EV and after accidents. Driverless vehicles
and platooning (the grouping of vehicles that behave e ffec-
tively as one) have improved safety for those who travel as
part of their work. However, there is a  risk of over-reliance on
the technology. Absolute reliability is therefore crucial, with
fail-safe modes in the event of accidents, problems or failures.
Green manufacturing, robotics and automation
Increased automation has improved OSH, in some respects,
by removing workers from some hazardous tasks but, at the
same time, the growth in the use of collaborative uncaged
robots has introduced other potential risks.Growing complexity and increasing ICT in automated man –
ufacturing has brought human-machine interface issues.
Some types of robot malfunction may be di fficult to detect
until it is too late and may, therefore, put workers’ safety at
risk. Growth in ‘just-in-time’ and ‘lean’ approaches facilitated
by /f_lexible manufacturing systems have put additional pres –
sure on workers, leading to psychological risks. Workers are
resorting to enhancement technologies in order to keep pace
with developments and with their colleagues as well as with
robots. There are potential unknown long-term health e ffects
of new green materials and nanocomposites with a  lower car –
bon footprint.
Domestic and small-scale renewable energy
The speed and diversity of change has resulted in skill short –
ages and, therefore, competency issues for work in renewable
energy technologies. There are many new energy technologies
where speci /f_ic knowledge is needed but has not yet been fully
developed, and where ‘old’ OSH knowledge and safe working
practices are not always directly transferable. New entrants
to the industry are not always su fficiently familiar with the
risks and new combinations thereof. Small and medium-sized
enterprises (SMEs) are increasingly using their land to produce
electricity as a  sideline and may use their own workers, or sub –
contractors, to install or maintain their renewable energy sys –
tems ad hoc, although such workers are not skilled in this type
of work. The increasing adoption of solar PV has introduced
risks for emergency workers accessing roof spaces that remain
live even after the mains supply has been cut.
Batteries and energy storage
Hydrogen has grown in popularity as an energy carrier, includ –
ing its use as a  fuel for vehicles, bringing transport and storage
issues. Batteries are the main means of electricity storage, with
potential risks of /f_ire and explosion, exposure to hazardous
chemicals and electrocution from high voltages. Based on
their experience from lead-acid batteries, people generally
have a  false perception that new batteries are safe. As for large
offshore installations, speci /f_ic OSH regulation is in place for
deep-sea energy storage, which, although a  relatively low-tech
concept, involves high voltages and power levels in a  complex
environment ,complicating installation and maintenance work.
Energy transmission and distribution
The complexity of the SuperSmart Grid (SSG) makes it di fficult
to maintain top-down control of the grid and, consequently, of
related OSH issues. The key OSH risk arises from increased live
working to cope with the rapid pace of change. The dangers
from electric shock, burns, /f_ire and explosion are well known,
but now involve di fferent people in di fferent situations. The
increase in electricity storage is an added dimension. The pres –
sure of work can lead to the use of inexperienced sta ff.

Executive summary
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 13Bonus World
High economic growth
Looking back from 2025, after a  slow start in 2012, growth across
the EU and OECD returned to the levels prior to the economic
crash of 2008. Developing countries also experienced high growth
similar to that of the /f_irst decade of the century. High growth has
led to high prices for natural resources, including energy.
Weak green values
After 2012, economic growth was the priority and some envi –
ronmental degradation was considered to be an unavoidable
consequence of strengthening EU economies. When faced
with the costs, people have not valued greenness su fficiently
for governments or business to have an incentive to deliver it.
Government support for green practices is limited to charg –
ing for the visible externalities of production (noise, pollution,
land /f_ill, tra ffic congestion, etc.).
Medium levels of innovation in green technologies (directed
towards pro /f_its)
Most consumers and businesses choose green products and
services only if they are better or cheaper than the alternatives.
Innovations in green technologies are limited to those areas
that show a  positive /f_inancial return.
High total levels of innovation
There are continuing advances in technology that are adopted
into new products and processes. High levels of capital invest –
ment mean that capital-intensive technologies can be rolled
out quickly. Corporate pro /f_itability and access to /f_inance have
supported high levels of investment in infrastructure. The envi –
ronmental consequences of increased use of resources are
seen as acceptable and necessary.
Energy sciences continue to deliver improvements in e ffi-
ciency and low-carbon energy, but it is now clear that serious
and unacceptable compromises would be needed to achieve
a zero-carbon future.
Society and work
Most people in the EU now feel more prosperous than in 2012.
They value economic well-being more than the environment,
but are prepared to pay for a  pleasant environment in the
vicinity where they live.
Businesses are focused on generating current and future
pro/f_its. New jobs are being introduced at a  relatively fast rate
and there are high levels of employment. There is also high
mobility of workers, while inequalities mean that low-skilled
workers are readily exploited.
Higher income levels and corporate pro /f_its have provided the
tax revenues that allow European governments to pay for sus –
tainable welfare programmes.Human performance-enhancing drugs are being routinely
used in work settings.
Occupational safety and health
Overview
In a healthy economy, funds are available to invest in OSH and
make infrastructure and business processes safe, but OSH is
of relatively low importance to most governments. Employers
see OSH as important in terms of its impact on pro /f_its.
New jobs and new products may bring new hazards and the
rapid roll-out of new technologies means that a  wide popula –
tion is exposed to these with short timescales for determining
their possible health and safety impacts.
OSH by regulation is more e ffective than OSH by education.
As in Win-Win, there are skills shortages associated with the
high pace of innovation. This leads to a  polarisation of the work –
force with regard to skills, with less-skilled workers more readily
found in jobs with poorer, more hazardous working conditions.
Wind energy
With smaller turbines, predominantly located onshore, con –
struction and maintenance are not as hazardous as in the other
two scenarios; however, the proximity to population centres
brings potential risks to a  larger population, including work –
ers. Much of the maintenance work is contracted out, so it is
more di fficult to keep an eye on work organisation and there is
a risk of passing of blame and no due diligence by the ultimate
owner. Cost pressures may lead to increased risk-taking. Many
of the workers are migrants with low skill levels and a  poor OSH
culture. The decommissioning of old wind farms that were not
designed to enable safe dismantling puts workers at high risk.
New composites and nanomaterials used in the manufacture
of wind turbines have possibly introduced new health hazards
for workers in manufacturing, maintenance, decommission –
ing and recycling. On the plus side, the use of standardised
designs has reduced complexity and made maintenance more
straightforward.
Green construction and building retro /f_itting
Off-site automated construction of modular buildings has
improved on-site safety as far fewer tasks are undertaken on
site. There are risks during the connection of services (e.g.
water and electricity) to prefabricated modules but, with cor –
rect designs, these should be negligible. However, as building
moves into factories, new risks emerge as workers are exposed
to novel substances.
On site, there are electrical risks as old and new buildings
have to be integrated into the smart grid, incorporating smart
appliances, energy storage technologies, etc. In increasingly
crowded cities, the trend of developing basements has led to
increasing underground congestion.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
14 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkWith a  high level of new build, there is a  large quantity of build –
ing materials from demolition to deal with. Compared with
Win-Win, newer buildings are being demolished – exposing
workers to new hazards from modern materials. Demolition
waste is sent to land /f_ill rather than recycling. Retro /f_itting of
existing buildings exposes workers to increasing roof work as
they install solar panels after they became economically viable,
with the risk of falls and exposure to lead and asbestos as they
disturb old structures. The lack of adequate ventilation when
retro /f_itting insulation has become an issue, as this type of work
may attract construction workers who are used to outdoor work
and, hence, not aware of the need for proper indoor ventilation.
Bioenergy
As with Win-Win, storage and handling of biomass exposes
workers to physical risks, to chemical and biological risks,
and risks from /f_ire and explosion: these may be mitigated by
automation. Even where biomass is handled automatically,
the boilers it fuels are a  source of smoke and dust. With small
subcontractors working under price pressures, work has inten –
si/f_ied with a  resulting increase in risks. Third-generation bio –
fuels produced from organisms created by synthetic biology
are a  potential source of biological risks.
Waste management and recycling
With a  high level of innovation, but a  lack of attention to recy –
clability, the waste-handling process can be dangerous. There
is some use of automation for handling waste, but only where
it is cheaper, rather than for OSH considerations. The rapid
rate of innovation means that new materials appear and /f_ind
their way into waste before OSH can be considered. This is
a throwaway society, so a  high number of workers are involved
in handling waste and are, therefore, potentially exposed. In an
increasingly complex world driven by pro /f_it, combined expo –
sure can be an issue. High charges for waste disposal may lead
to more in-house e fforts by the waste producer to deal with
waste, transferring risks from professional waste operators to
the waste producer: for example, business owners (including
microenterprises and SMEs, as well as private individuals) using
small-scale digesters, waste compactors or incinerators.
Green transport
As with Win-Win, maintenance and recharging of electric vehi –
cles have become important hazards as they have become
increasingly widespread and work has moved away from special –
ist suppliers and maintainers to independents. The risks arising
from the growth in electric vehicles is not con /f_ined to the vehicle
itself. Vehicle batteries that have reached the end of their life for
vehicle service are being used to store electricity in buildings. As
well as the normal /f_ire and explosion risks associated with batter –
ies, there is, therefore, the added complication of batteries used
for energy storage that are degraded, decaying, unlabelled and
of unknown provenance and design. Automation of vehicles is
proving to be positive for the OSH of drivers, although there is an issue of over-reliance on the technology. The technology needs
to be absolutely reliable with fail-safe modes in case of incidents.
Green manufacturing, robotics and automation
As in Win-Win, increased automation has improved OSH
by removing workers from some hazardous tasks. At the
same time, the growth in the use of collaborative robots has
introduced other potential risks. Increasing complexity and
increasing use of ICT in automated manufacturing has brought
human-machine interface issues. Safety (as opposed to health)
is increasingly engineered into processes, driven by the desire
to avoid lost production, while employers are less interested
in longer-term health issues. Decentralised manufacturing
systems such as 3D printing or other rapid manufacturing
techniques can lead to new groups of workers being exposed
to manufacturing hazards (e.g. harmful dusts, chemicals or
laser light) yet not being adequately trained to deal with them.
There may be new occupational diseases caused by exposure
to new materials. Without exposure registers, diseases are dif –
/f_icult to trace back to jobs as no one stays on the same produc –
tion line for their entire career any more.
Domestic and small-scale renewable energy
In the period before solar PV reached grid parity, the sud –
den withdrawal of subsidies led to panic in the rush to meet
deadlines, resulting in work done in a  hurry thus introducing
OSH risks including work-related psychosocial risks. The use
of cheaper imported products, sometimes of poorer quality
or even counterfeit, has led to increased risks, especially when
installation is carried out by new entrants to the sector or by
householders themselves.
Batteries and energy storage
Novel battery designs continue to appear, bringing potential
risks from chemicals, carcinogenic metals, dusts, /f_ibres, nano –
materials and /f_ire. The waste treatment of batteries raises issues
around recycling, degradation and /f_ire risk. It is challenging to
determine the precise contents of any particular battery type
as this information is often treated as a  trade secret. Batteries
used as building energy stores are a  hazard as people don’t
recognise the risks of overcharging. Hydrogen is used as an
energy carrier but it is di fficult to handle and there are risks
of /f_ire and explosion and risks from its cryogenic liquid form.
Energy transmission and distribution
There are risks from power cuts as cost pressures have led
to a  reduction in spare generating capacity. The risks arise
from sudden darkness and the loss of power, especially with
moving machinery, and other safety-critical situations. The
pressure to squeeze more capacity out of the system leads to
novel solutions, but this reduces safety margins. Substitution
of copper cabling with aluminium, again driven by cost as
copper becomes increasingly expensive, has introduced an
increased risk of sparking and joint failure.

Executive summary
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 15Deep Green
Low economic growth
Since 2012, there has been little economic growth within the
EU and some countries are still facing sovereign debt prob –
lems. The BRICs have not returned to the former high growth
rates and are currently growing at about 5  % per annum. Other
developing countries are growing at a  rate broadly in line with
the growth of their populations.
Strongly green values
Green values have strengthened over the last decade and
there is widespread and strong approval for green behaviour
by corporations and individuals. This has given governments
a mandate to legislate for deep and progressive cuts in carbon
emissions. Reduced growth is seen as a  price worth paying for
a green future.
Advances in climate science have shown just how vulnerable
the human race will be to climate change. There are growing
public concerns about the loss of ecosystems and resource
shortages.
Medium innovation in green technologies (directed toward
greenness)
The concerns about a  green future have driven progress on
improvements in e fficiency and the target of a  zero-carbon future.
There are continuing advances in technology, but restricted
levels of capital investment mean that capital-intensive tech –
nologies have been slow to be rolled out. Commercial success
depends on having appropriately green products and services.
There have been signi /f_icant local small-scale innovations to
address green issues, many directed toward self-reliance.
Energy sciences continue to deliver improvements in e ffi-
ciency and low-carbon energy, but it is clear that serious com –
promises will need to be made to achieve a  zero-carbon future.
Medium total innovation
The priority has been to direct innovation towards achieving
a green future.
Society and work
Over the last decade, the key priority has been to move towards
a green future, at the expense of growth and other social objec –
tives. As a  result, there is now higher unemployment and lower
corporate pro /f_its. The reduced tax base has restricted the abil –
ity of EU governments to pay for increasing welfare demands.
The greening of the economy and society has introduced
many new processes and enterprises, creating new green jobs.
Businesses are focused on survival and reducing costs, and
workers are concerned about joining the signi /f_icant number
of the unemployed.Innovation continues to deliver improvements in e fficiency
and reduced carbon outputs but it is clear that serious com –
promises need to be made to achieve a  zero-carbon future.
Despite the di fficulties, a  green future is generally seen as
worth the sacri /f_ices.
Occupational safety and health
Overview
Low economic growth has tempted employers to cut corners,
making investment in safer and healthier infrastructure more
difficult. A  tendency towards decentralised, more local and
smaller enterprises (in particular microenterprises and self-
employment) makes it more di fficult to reach workplaces to
disseminate good OSH practices and to control OSH conditions.
With emphasis on reduced consumption of energy and physical
goods, most new jobs are in the service sector. Many new small
businesses, often with skills de /f_icits, are set up to meet these
needs. A  make-do-and-mend approach leads to refurbishment
rather than replacement, so there are risks associated with the
use of old equipment. In this scenario, there are more di fficult
‘dirty’ manual jobs (in repair, maintenance, waste sorting, etc.)
than in the other scenarios with more innovation and automa –
tion. But the relatively slow roll-out of some new technologies
and products gives more time to assimilate new hazards and
risks. There are many new green processes and enterprises, all
of which require new OSH procedures and training.
Wind energy
End-of-life issues and maintenance are the key OSH considera –
tions. The economy requires the upkeep of older installations
and there is pressure to keep systems running whatever the
weather. Older wind turbines have not been upgraded with
safety or ergonomic features, such as lifts, because of cost pres –
sures: as a  result, the physical risks associated with climbing
and working in towers has become signi /f_icant, especially as
increasing numbers of older workers are unable to retire.
Green construction and building retro /f_itting
With relatively little new build, the main risks to workers come
from exposure to new materials during refurbishment and the
handling of waste from refurbishment (including asbestos),
and from the retro /f_itting of renewable energy technologies,
involving work at height and electrical connections to the
grid. Retro /f_itting also exposes workers to dust and hazardous
chemicals. The lack of adequate ventilation may be an issue,
in particular as this type of work may attract unskilled work –
ers, including ‘do-it-yourself’ installers, unaware of the risks.
Bioenergy
The risks from /f_ire and explosion and exposure to chemicals
and biohazards are similar to those in the other scenarios,
but the emphasis on local production and use — with many
small-scale producers  — creates risks that are more di fficult to
regulate. New players, less familiar with the risks of handling

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
16 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Workfuel (e.g. farmers producing low quantities, or companies start –
ing to use their own waste as an energy source, for example in
the textile or food industry)  may be particularly at risk. There
may also be problems with the quality of their products and,
therefore, safety issues, as well as the impact on gas network
pipelines from biogas or syngas not meeting the required gas
speci /f_ication.
Waste management and recycling
Overall, waste volumes are down as a  result of strong green val –
ues and the economic situation, but there is still legacy waste
to deal with and construction waste volumes from refurbish –
ment are high. There is an emphasis on local handling of waste
at the small-scale — meaning a  potentially weaker culture of
OSH and more di fficulties in controlling OSH risks in a  decen –
tralised system — and there is a  high manual component, with
a relatively low level of automation. The quality of the waste
stream has improved, but land /f_ill mining is increasing as the
costs of raw materials climb, so workers risk being exposed to
safety hazards as well as unknown health hazards. Greater use
of biomass in this scenario brings exposure to dust, allergens
and other toxins. Reused items may compromise safety and
health (e.g. steel made from recycled metals containing lead).
Green transport
As in Win-Win and Bonus World, the maintenance and charg –
ing of electric vehicles are key OSH concerns. However, driven
by the need to economise and by strong green values, there
has been an increase in two-wheeled vehicles for personal
transport and goods as well as for service deliveries, exposing
those who travel for their work to risk of injury and accidents.
Many ‘mobility self-entrepreneurs’ have seen a  job opportu –
nity in this growing area of the transport sector. However,
the self-employed tend to have less of a  culture of OSH and
less access to OSH services such as OSH medical surveillance,
labour inspectorate services; in addition, they are generally
not covered by worker protection legislation.
Green manufacturing, robotics and automation
There has been less adoption of automation than in the
other scenarios, so old OSH issues may persist as manufac –
turers make do with ageing infrastructure and machinery. The
increasing tendency to outsource maintenance services to
small companies has increased risks to maintenance workers
who have to deal with a  wide range of equipment to extend its
life. The intermittent nature of renewable energy (reliant as it
is on wind and sunlight, for example) means that shift working
has increased, resulting in increased health and psychosocial
issues and other risks such as accidents. Exposure to new mate –
rials in SMEs and microenterprises involved in decentralised
manufacture (e.g. 3D printing) has brought potential exposure
risks to more workers. Process integration means that indus –
trial processes previously performed in di fferent locations (e.g.
manufacturing and recycling) are brought together, increas –
ing the range of risks on a  single site. This requires new skills and technical knowledge. However, there is a  lack of skills as
manufacturing is brought back into the EU as a  result of global
changes, and the loss of corporate memory and experience is
exposing new workers to risks.
Domestic and small-scale renewable energy
A diversity of distribution systems and non-standard instal –
lations is resulting in electrical risks to maintenance workers.
The combination of technologies (e.g. combined heat and
power (CHP) and solar thermal) is adding to the complexity
and, therefore, the risk. Similarly, unsophisticated, perhaps do-
it-yourself, domestic installations are also potentially hazard –
ous. Small-scale bioenergy generation gives rise to risks of /f_ire
and explosion and exposure to toxic substances. Distributed
supply, especially from small clusters of houses or small busi –
nesses, is di fficult to regulate. The emergency services are at
risk when they attend non-standard installations. Emerging
technologies generally may be responsible for long-latency
effects, yet to emerge.
Batteries and energy storage
Batteries give rise to electrical risks and risks from toxic chemi –
cals and /f_ire. Greener batteries may be more hazardous as envi –
ronmental regulations limit the range of materials allowed.
Interconnected mixtures of energy storage technologies
devices, especially those assembled by do-it-yourself enthu –
siasts, bring unexpected risks in themselves, to maintenance
workers and to the emergency services. Hydrogen is used for
energy storage, introducing risks of /f_ire and explosion and
risks from its cryogenic liquid form.
Energy transmission and distribution
OSH issues include the di fficulty in maintaining top-down
control of the grid as distributed generating sources increase.
Major work to upgrade the grid has been undertaken, intro –
ducing increased live working. Life-extended systems bring
more risks than new systems. Biogas distribution has brought
risks of intoxication, su ffocation, explosion and quality issues.

Executive summary
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 17Conclusions
The scenarios produced are descriptions of possible future
‘worlds’ for green jobs. It is important to recognise that they are
not projections or forecasts, but a  tool for exploring the future
and the critical uncertainties — those factors that will be most
important in shaping the future but whose direction of develop –
ment is uncertain. The value comes not only from the scenarios
themselves but also from the insights and discussions that they
generate.
During this work, it became apparent that many of the current
assumptions about future green jobs are based on an optimis –
tic outcome, a  Win-Win scenario. But the possibility that these
targets are not met should be taken into account: for example
by looking at the alternative scenarios produced in this project
(and others). The scenarios produced could equally be applied
to a  broad range of other technologies and other aspects asso –
ciated with green jobs, so long as the underlying assumptions
remain valid. They should be used with care when considering
OSH for jobs beyond the scope of this project; they may have to
be extrapolated to do this, although much of the data on drivers
and technologies could be applied to a  broader range of jobs.
It also became clear that ‘green jobs’ encompass a  broad range of
workplaces in di fferent sectors, with di fferent working conditions,
working processes and workers’ groups involved. The scenarios
also revealed the impact of the socio-economic context and the
strategies and policies adopted on technology developments and
working conditions, and how this may give rise to a  variety of OSH
issues. Therefore, when devising a  prevention strategy for green
jobs, the speci /f_icities of the di fferent types of green jobs and the
diversity of the workforce have to be taken into account. Still, as
diverse as green jobs may be, a  number of common challenges
were highlighted:
t
decentralised work processes: as workplaces are getting
more dispersed and more di fficult to reach, monitoring and
enforcement of good OSH conditions and safe working prac –
tices is likely to become more challenging;
t
a growing use of subcontracted work, as well as an increase in
self-employment, micro and small enterprises: such structures
may have less awareness of OSH and a  less-developed culture
of OSH, as well as fewer resources available for OSH and less
access to OSH services;
t
new skills and the need for adequate worker training: there
are many new green technologies and working processes
where speci /f_ic knowledge is needed but has not yet been fully
developed; there are also (new combinations of) ‘old’ risks
but found in new situations equally requiring new (combina –
tions of) speci /f_ic skills; the job opportunities in green jobs may
attract new entrants extending beyond their original skills
areas and unaware of these new challenges;t
skill shortages and polarisation of the workforce, with
low-skilled workers pushed to accept poorer working condi –
tions and more di fficult jobs;
t
increased automation, which may improve OSH but also
bring human-machine interface issues as well as issues of
over-reliance on the technology;
t
con/f_licts between green objectives and OSH, with the risk of
OSH being overlooked; and
t
novel, difficult-to-characterise and potentially hazardous
materials that will need to be closely monitored over their
entire life cycle for potential (unknown, long-latency) health
hazards: this will be increasingly challenging as no one stays
in the same job for life, making it di fficult to link health e ffects
to occupational exposure.
With regard to prevention, at the workplace level, risk assess –
ment remains the key to devising adequate prevention measures
that take into account the speci /f_icity of the green job considered
and the workers involved. At the development stage of any new
technology, product or process, well upstream of their introduc –
tion into workplaces, a  systematic, prior assessment of OSH over
the entire life cycle is needed. Thus, integrating prevention into
design is more e fficient than retro /f_itting OSH and needs to start
now to ensure safe green jobs in the future. This requires the
cooperation of various actors at the level of policy, research and
development (R  & D) and the workplace across several disciplines,
including OSH, environmental protection and from the di fferent
sectors in which green jobs are developing. Technology develop –
ers, designers and architects should also be included in the pro –
cess. The scenarios have proven to be a  powerful tool to support
such cooperation. This, together with the new insights on new
and emerging OSH risks generated in the scenarios, allows more
robust strategies and policies to be developed. This is key to the
creation of green jobs o ffering decent, safe and healthy working
conditions and, thus, assisting the development of a  smart, sus –
tainable and inclusive growth of the green economy in line with
the EU 2020 strategy (European Commission, 2010).

1. Introduction

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
20 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work1.1. Context
This report describes a  project undertaken for the European
Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA) to develop sce –
narios of the future in order to anticipate new and emerging risks
to occupational safety and health associated with a  range of new
technologies in green jobs. This foresight will be used by EU-OSHA
to inform EU policymakers, Member States’ governments, trade
unions and employers, so that they can make better decisions in
order to shape the future of occupational safety and health (OSH)
in green jobs leading to safer and healthier workplaces.
Working environments are continuously changing with the intro –
duction of new technologies, substances and work processes,
changes in the structure of the workforce and the labour market,
and new forms of employment and work organisation. New work
situations bring new risks and challenges for workers and employ –
ers, which, in turn, demand political, administrative, technical
and regulatory approaches to ensure high levels of safety and
health at work.
In OSH policy and practice, attention has too often focused on
reacting to existing risks and problems. Over the last 50 years,
many OSH hazards have evolved relatively slowly. The combina –
tion of the accelerating pace of technology change and potential
moves towards a  green economy mean that it will be increasingly
important to anticipate new and emerging risks. The need for
forward-looking e fforts to identify future risks was underlined in
the Community strategy 2002–06, Commission of the European
Communities, 2002, which called on EU-OSHA to ‘set up a  risk
observatory’ and to ‘anticipate new and emerging risks’ in order
to tackle the continuously changing world of work and the associ –
ated new risks. The second Community strategy 2007–12 (Com –
mission of the European Communities, 2007) has further identi –
/f_ied a  series of problems, which arise from the current changes in
society and workplaces and, in particular, from the fact that ‘the
nature of occupational hazards is changing in tandem with the
acceleration of innovation’. This strategy emphasises ‘risks associ –
ated with new technologies’ as an area where risk anticipation
should be enhanced.
At the same time, the European Union is committed to a  20 %
reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels
(or by 30  %, ‘if the conditions are right’)  (1), a 20 % increase in
energy e fficiency, and to increasing the market share of renew –
able energy by 20  % by 2020 (European Commission, 2010). In
its meeting in March 2009, the Environment Council emphasised
‘that the economic crisis and the policy measures in response to
it provide an opportunity to achieve necessary economic reforms
and, at the same time, to speed up reforms towards a  safe and
sustainable low-carbon and resource-e fficient economy’ and
‘reaffirmed the importance of environmental technologies as
(1) ‘Provided that other developed countries commit themselves to comparable
emission reductions and that developing countries contribute adequately
according to their responsibilities and respective capabilities’ (European Com –
mission, 2010).one of the fastest growing markets and a  means to both reduce
pressure on the environment and improve energy and resource
efficiency, as well as to strengthen competitiveness and support
job creation’ (Council of the European Union, 2009).
Green jobs were therefore selected as the priority area for this sce –
nario development project because of their importance for Europe
2020 — A  strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth (Euro –
pean Commission, 2010). Indeed, meeting the EU’s objective of
a 20 % increase in renewable energy alone has the potential to
create more than 600  000 jobs in the EU. Adding the 20  % target
on energy e fficiency, it is well over one million new jobs that are
at stake. If green jobs are not decent, safe and healthy jobs, many
workers will be a ffected in the future. The impetus to ‘green’ the
economy, associated with a  strong emphasis on innovation in
this area, provides an opportunity to anticipate potential new
risks in these developing green jobs and make sure their design
integrates workers’ safety and health.
The decision to use a  scenario-building approach project arose
out of the workshop ‘Shaping the future of OSH — A  workshop
on foresight methodologies’ hosted by EU-OSHA’s European Risk
Observatory (ERO) in October 2008  (2). The ERO wished to build
on earlier forecast exercises, comprising Delphi studies in four
different risk areas  (3), which had produced useful summaries and
prioritisation of key risks as assessed by experts. However, it was
felt that in order to consider likely occupational health and safety
risks further into the future, an alternative technique should be
used. The scenario-building approach was selected as a  suitable
vehicle to provide a  forward look.
1.2. New and emerging risks
EU-OSHA de /f_ines an ‘emerging OSH risk’ as any occupational risk
that is both ‘new’ and ‘increasing’.
‘New’ means that:
t
the risk did not previously exist and is caused by new pro –
cesses, new technologies, new types of workplace, or social
or organisational change;
t
a long-standing issue is newly considered as a  risk due to
a change in social or public perceptions; or
t
new scienti /f_ic knowledge allows a  long-standing issue to be
identi /f_ied as a  risk.
(2) More information is available online ( http://osha.europa.eu/en/seminars/
shaping-the-future-of-osh-a-workshop-on-foresight-methodologies ).
(3) EU-OSHA’s expert forecasts were carried out in the following four areas: Emerg –
ing physical risks to OSH (EU- OSHA, 2005); Emerging biological risks (EU-OSHA,
2007a); Emerging psychosocial risks (EU-OSHA, 2007b); and Emerging chemi –
cal risks (EU-OSHA, 2009).

Introduction
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 21The risk is ‘increasing’ if the following conditions are met:
t
the number of hazards leading to the risk is growing;
t
the likelihood of exposure to the hazard leading to the risk is
increasing (the level of exposure is rising and/or the number
of people exposed is increasing); or
t
the e ffect of the hazard on workers’ health is getting worse
(the health e ffects are getting more serious and/or the num –
ber of people a ffected is rising).
1.3. Green jobs
There are many de /f_initions of ‘green jobs’. Green jobs used to
be considered as those involved with protecting biodiversity
and the natural environment, but they now include areas such
as low-carbon jobs, energy e fficiency, and carbon /f_inance. They
can also go beyond ‘direct’ green employment into the supply
chain, even though they may not supply green industries. Nuclear
energy might be green to some, in the context of its low-carbon
credentials, but not to others (Bird and Lawton, 2009). Some com –
mentators distinguish ‘green jobs’, which contribute to improving
or preserving the environment, from ‘green-collar jobs’, which are
green jobs that are also ‘decent’ jobs in that they are good for the
worker as well as the environment. Others talk about ‘greening
the workplace’. The US Blue Green Alliance describes a  green job
as ‘a blue-collar job with a  green purpose’ (Blue Green Alliance,
2009). Although this is the view of a  particular group, when we
come to consider our remit of new and emerging risks in green
jobs, the blue-collar label might not be too far adrift.
Pollin et al. (2008), break green jobs into three categories:
t
direct jobs: /f_irst round of job changes resulting from changing
outputs in target industries;
t
indirect jobs: subsequent job changes resulting from chang –
ing inputs required to accommodate the above; and
t
income-induced jobs: additional jobs created by changes in
household incomes and expenditures resulting from both
above.
Pollin et al. present a  list of typical jobs that might be associated
with various green activity areas ( Table  2: Green recovery in the
US) (Pollin et al., 2008).
Different de /f_initions or interpretations of these terms will suit
the purposes of those using them. Politicians, for example, will
be eager to take a  broad approach to the de /f_inition in order to
boost the numbers of those apparently in green jobs. In the OSH
arena, we need to be more critical in our de /f_inition, focusing on
potential risk and prevention rather than in /f_lating numbers.An often-quoted de /f_inition of green jobs is that used by the
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP, 2008):
‘We de /f_ine green jobs as work in agricultural, manufacturing,
research and development (R  & D), administrative, and service
activities that contribute substantially to preserving or restor –
ing environmental quality. Speci /f_ically, but not exclusively, this
includes jobs that help to protect ecosystems and biodiversity;
reduce energy, materials, and water consumption through high
efficiency strategies; decarbonise the economy; and minimise or
altogether avoid generation of all forms of waste and pollution’ .
The European Commission (European Commission, 2012) ‘under –
stands “green jobs” as covering all jobs that depend on the envi –
ronment or are created, substituted or rede /f_ined (in terms of skills
sets, work methods, pro /f_iles greened, etc.) in the transition pro –
cess towards a  greener economy’ and adds that ‘this broad de /f_i-
nition is complementary and not opposed to the one by UNEP’
(quoted above).
For the purpose of collecting employment data, Eurostat de /f_ined
the Environmental Goods and Services Sector (EGSS) (Eurostat,
2009) which is more limited than the previous de /f_inition. The sec –
tor consists of a  ‘heterogeneous set of producers of technologies,
goods and services’ that do the following:
t
measure, control, restore, prevent, treat, minimise, research
and sensitise environmental damages to air, water and soil
as well as problems related to waste, noise, biodiversity and
landscapes: this includes ‘cleaner’ technologies, goods and
services that prevent or minimise pollution; and
t
measure, control, restore, prevent, minimise, research and
sensitise resource depletion: this results mainly in resource-
efficient technologies, goods and services that minimise the
use of natural resources.
Eurostat also stipulates that these technologies and products (i.e.
goods and services) must satisfy the end-purpose criterion: they
must have an environmental protection or resource management
purpose as their prime objective.
These de /f_initions usefully describe the areas of work potentially
covered by the green label but, in terms of jobs, including as they
do administrative jobs, they give huge scope to green jobs. At
the kick-o ff meeting for this project, EU-OSHA’s European Risk
Observatory (ERO) clari /f_ied its requirements and interpretation
of the above de /f_initions in the context of this project. It advised
that the aim was to investigate new types of risk related to new
technologies within green jobs. So the primary interest was in
those working with or directly affected by the new technologies,
rather than those merely associated indirectly with the new tech –
nologies. ‘White-collar’ jobs in a  green industry were not of inter –
est. New combinations of risk were of interest: for example in the
installation of solar panels, where electrical risks combine with
the risk of working at height. Jobs in green industries where the
risks are the same as other jobs, for example the transport of green

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
22 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Workgoods, were not of interest. Novelty was of more interest than the
increase or decrease in known risks. Focusing attention in this way
made the task more manageable and, potentially, more useful.
Table 2: Green recovery in the US
Strategies for green
economic investmentRepresentative jobs
Building retro /f_itting Electricians, heating/air conditioning installers, carpenters, construction equipment operators,
roofers, insulation workers, carpenters’ assistants, industrial truck drivers, construction managers,
building inspectors
Mass transit/freight rail Civil engineers, railway track layers, electricians, welders, metal fabricators, engine assemblers,
bus drivers, dispatchers, locomotive engineers, railroad conductors
Smart grid Computer software engineers, electrical engineers, electrical equipment assemblers, electrical
equipment technicians, machinists, team assemblers, construction labourers, operating
engineers, electrical power line installers and repairers
Wind power Environmental engineers, iron and steel workers, millwrights, sheet metal workers, machinists,
electrical equipment assemblers, construction equipment operators, installation assistants,
labourers, construction managers
Solar power Electrical engineers, electricians, industrial machinery mechanics, welders, metal fabricators,
electrical equipment assemblers, construction equipment operators, installation assistants,
labourers, construction managers
Advanced biofuels Chemical engineers, chemists, chemical equipment operators, chemical technicians, mixing
and blending machine operators, agricultural workers, industrial truck drivers, farm product
purchasers, agricultural and forestry supervisors, agricultural inspectors
Source: Pollin et al., 2008.
1.4. Introduction to scenarios
Michael Porter de /f_ined scenarios used in strategy as ‘an internally
consistent view of what the future might turn out to be — not
a forecast, but one possible future outcome’ (Porter, 1985). Sce –
narios are descriptions of how ‘the world’ or issues being consid –
ered might look in the future: they are not predictions or forecasts.
They are based on an analysis of drivers of future change. The
most important uncertainties about the future should have dif –
ferent outcomes in each scenario.
A good scenario is engaging and compelling, has an internal logic
and consistency and describes a  credible path to the future. The
contents of the scenarios are not to be taken as conclusions, or
statements that the future would, indeed, be as described in the
scenarios, but merely as descriptions of how it could be. There
are many more possibilities, and the future will most probably contain a  part of some or of all of these. Envisaging these di ffer-
ent situations is simply an instrument to trigger discussion on
how to be prepared for these di fferent elements and di fferent
possibilities of the future.
Scenarios are important because the future is uncertain and,
largely, unknowable. While policies are often driven by an ‘o ffi-
cial’ view of the future, scenarios integrate an analysis of drivers
of change, critical uncertainties and predetermined elements.
They can be used for detailed analysis of future issues in order
to inform decisions to be made today. They also provide a  space
(the future) removed from the constraints of the present, to allow
stakeholders to talk about the future together.
Scenarios can be more engaging than statistics or policy papers
to describe strategic issues and they can be an important tool for
organisational learning.

Introduction
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 231.5. Project phases and structure
of the report
This two-year project was conducted between 2010 and 2012
over three phases and the methodology for each of these is
described in Chapter  2.
Phase  1 was to select the key contextual drivers for new and
emerging OSH risks associated with new technologies in green
jobs by 2020. These drivers are the major forces or trends that will
shape the future environment for workers in green jobs. Those
that will have the greatest impact on the range of di fferent future
environments were used to de /f_ine the scenarios. The drivers and
the results of the selection process are set out in Chapter  3.
Phase  2 was to identify key new technologies that could contrib –
ute to creating new and emerging risks in green jobs by 2020.
These were reviewed to select the nine key technologies where
there would be the most signi /f_icant new and emerging OSH risks.
The data and results of this are contained in Chapter  4.
Phase  3 saw the development of the base scenarios using the key
contextual drivers of change from Phase  1. These base scenarios
were then used through a  series of workshops to explore the
respective development of the key technologies from Phase  2
and their impact on OSH in each of the scenarios. The information generated through this process was then integrated into the base
scenarios to produce the full scenarios. The descriptions of the
base scenarios, the process of their development and the tech –
nology developments and their OSH implications are set out in
Chapter  5.
The scenarios were tested and consolidated in a  consolidation
workshop during which it was also demonstrated how the sce –
narios can be used to support OSH policymaking: the conclusions
and the results of the consolidation workshop are in Chapter  6.
The final set of scenarios and guidance on their use are in
Chapter  7.
The conclusions are in Chapter  8.
1.6. Acknowledgements
The project was conducted by a  consortium of the UK Health and
Safety Laboratory, SAMI Consulting and the Technopolis Group.
Emmanuelle Brun and Xabier Irastorza of EU-OSHA worked closely
with the consortium and made a  very valuable contribution to
the project. We are also grateful for the signi /f_icant contributions
that have been made by experts and policymakers who have been
interviewed, responded to surveys and attended workshops.

2. Methodology

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
26 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkThis chapter outlines the methodology adopted for the project.
2.1. Project initiation
A project initiation meeting was held in Buxton, United King –
dom, in January 2010. This involved the project team, EU-
OSHA and /f_ive invited experts (Annex  1). The purpose was to
ensure  that there was a  common understanding of the require –
ments of the project and included clarifying the de /f_initions of
the terms ‘new and emerging risks’, ‘new technologies’ and
‘green jobs’.
The overall scope of the project was discussed and the approach
to be adopted for Phase  1 was agreed. This included the
production of a  one-page project brief that was used to inform
those who were eventually involved in some way during the
project.
There was also an initial review of potential contextual drivers
of change, which helped to prioritise the literature reviews in
Phase  1 — Contextual drivers of change.
2.2. Project Phase 1:
Contextual drivers of change
Phase  1 of this project concerned the identi /f_ication of contex –
tual drivers of change that could contribute to creating new and
emerging OSH risks associated with new technologies in green
jobs. This phase comprised three Work Packages (WP).
t
WP 1.1: Review of the literature on contextual drivers of
change resulting in an initial list of drivers
t
WP 1.2: Consultation exercise carried out by interviews with
experts and by an Internet-based exercise to consolidate the
list of drivers
t
WP 1.3: Voting exercise to prioritise the drivers and produce
a list of suitable key drivers to be used in generating a  set of
scenarios in Phase  3 of the project
The results of Phase  1 are presented in Chapter  3: more detailed
information on Phase  1 is available in the report on Phase  1 of
the project (EU-OSHA, 2011a).
2.2.1. WP 1.1: Review of existing information on contextual
drivers of change
The aim of WP  1.1 was a  review of existing information (fore –
sight, forecasts, studies, surveys, scienti /f_ic reviews, statistics, etc.)
in order to identify contextual drivers of change.Literature review methodology
An initial literature review was carried out by the Health and
Safety Executive’s Library and Information Service (LIS), which
has access to a  wide range of subscription databases. Searches
were carried out on the following databases:
t
Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts (ASSIA): a  data –
base covering social services, psychology, sociology and
health information;
t
EBSCO Host: a  portal for e-journals published by numerous
publishers — it includes the tables of contents of 26  000
journals;
t
International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS):
online source covering social science /f_ields including eco –
nomics, social policy and social services, political science, law,
accounting and /f_inance, health and psychology, international
relations and sociology;
t
OSH-ROM containing bibliographic databases including:
CISDOC (International Labour Office); NIOSHTIC (United
States National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health);
HSELINE; MHIDAS (US Major Hazard Incident Data Service);
RILOSH (Ryerson International Labour, Occupational Safety
and Health Index, Canada); MEDLINE OEM; and
t
other (charged) databases: enviroline ; Environmental Engi –
neering; Ei Compendex®; BIOSIS (Thomson Reuters); The Econ –
omist ; Management Contents; Management and Marketing
Abstracts; Wilson Applied Science & Technology Abstracts;
New Scientist ; NTIS (US National Technical Information Ser –
vice); and CAB.
Searches that focused speci /f_ically on ‘drivers’ for green or envi –
ronmental jobs produced little in the way of leads, presumably
because drivers themselves are not the primary focus of most of
the literature on green jobs and may not appear in keywords.
Opening the search to green jobs generally increased the num –
ber of hits dramatically, but with less discrimination. There is
a large amount of material available on green jobs, much of it
fairly recent. Most of the references found to be most useful were
published from 2007 onwards.
The formal searches carried out by LIS yielded over 350 hits. The
project team sifted these on the basis of age, geographical cover –
age, accessibility of the material and relevance as indicated by
the title or abstract, where available.
The formal searches were supplemented by independent searches
by the project team, relying largely on the Internet and covering
a range of sources and websites of relevant organisations. In addi –
tion, information on environmental drivers from earlier work by
team members was made available. The academic press did not
yield a  lot of relevant information, perhaps because of the new –
ness of the area and the long lead-in time typical for academic
journals. The most useful sources proved to be reports by and for

Methodology
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 27government departments and other bodies, written from global,
European and national perspectives. These are listed in Annex  2.
The results from the searches were analysed and 69 drivers were
selected and used to produce a  short report, which was supplied
as brie /f_ing material to participants in WP  1.2. The initial list of
drivers is presented in Annex  3.
2.2.2. WP 1.2: Consolidation of the list of contextual drivers
of change
The aim of WP  1.2 was to consolidate the /f_indings of WP  1.1, using
the expertise of key people who may be aware of contextual driv –
ers of change not yet described in published material. The con –
solidation stage was based on two consultation exercises.
Interview programme
The /f_irst consultation exercise was a  programme of telephone
interviews with 25 experts. The selection of interviewees was
intended, as far as possible, to identify people from a  range of
organisations, with a  variety of backgrounds and experience in
order to bring a  range of views to the exercise. The interviewees
are listed in Annex  4. In addition to the views obtained from the
interviews, a  written response was received from the European
Trade Union Institute (ETUI).
Interviews were based on the ‘SAMI 7-Questions’ technique,
which was developed by SAMI Consulting and is now widely used
in scenario-building exercises (Ringland, 2006). The questions are
designed to be ‘open’ so as to give interviewees the freedom to
develop ideas in a  relaxed setting.
Interviewees were advised that interviews would be non-attribut –
able, so comments could not be linked to any individual. There –
fore, they were invited to give their own views and not necessarily
those of their organisation.
The following question set was used.
Question  1
Having read the literature review of contextual drivers of change,
what do you see as the main drivers identi /f_ied in the document
and a ffecting new and emerging risks to occupational safety and
health associated with new technologies in green jobs by 2020?
t
Is there anything additional that was not in the literature
review that you feel is a  relevant driver?
t
Are there any drivers that don’t belong?
t
Are there any drivers you disagree with?
t
Which drivers are most likely to drive new technology?Question  2
Clairvoyant
If you could spend some time with someone who knew the out –
come, a  clairvoyant or oracle if such existed, what would you want
to know? What are the critical issues?
Question  3
An optimistic outcome
Optimistic but realistic — What would be a  good outcome and
what would be the signs?
Question  4
A pessimistic outcome
How could the environment change to make things more dif –
/f_icult? What could go wrong?
Question  5
Looking back
Looking back 10 years, what successes can we build on and what
failures can we learn from?
Question  6
Looking forward
What decisions need to be made in the near term to achieve the
desired long-term outcome?
Question  7
Epitaph
If you had a  mandate, without constraints, what more would you
need to do?
Interview transcripts were structured, where possible, in short
paragraphs dealing with a  single issue to allow coding and sorting
to produce a  workbook. Individual paragraphs were sorted into
appropriate sections to allow key issues to emerge.
Internet questionnaire
The second consultation exercise, run alongside the interview
programme, consisted of an Internet-based questionnaire. Par –
ticipants were asked to select the drivers that in their views were
most important from the 69 drivers listed in Annex  3.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
28 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkA questionnaire was created in SNAP Survey software  (4) which
has been used by the Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) for
numerous surveys.
The questionnaire contained the 69 drivers and their descriptions.
Participants were asked to use drop-down menus to select their
top three drivers from each of the categories: Societal; Techno –
logical; Economic; Environmental; and Political. In addition, space
was made available for free-text comments.
The questionnaire was publicised through articles in the Health
and Safety Executive’s (HSE) Science and Research Outlook news –
letter (HSE, 2012) and in EU-OSHA’s OSHmail newsletter (EU-
OSHA, 2010). In addition, the existence of the questionnaire was
picked up by independent websites such as Hazards (O’Neill,
2010), which gave further publicity to the questionnaire (O’Neill,
2010). Overall, about 50  000 people were potentially exposed to
the questionnaire. Given the very large potential audience for
the questionnaire, the number of replies received, at 49, could
be considered rather surprising. However, it was not untypical for
an unsolicited survey of this type and su fficient responses were
obtained to provide useful information. Also, many recipients
of the OSHmail newsletter receive it in a  language other than
English, so they might have been unwilling to undertake a  ques –
tionnaire in English.
Responses were obtained from 17 countries, mostly in Europe, but
also from Australia, Bangladesh, Cameroon and the United States.
Respondents included health and safety professionals, directors,
trade union representatives and others whose interests in green
jobs ranged from professional to ‘self-taught eco-warrior’. Of
those who provided information, 19 were from the public sec –
tor/government; 18 from the private sector; 3 were academics; 2
came from trade unions; and 1 from the voluntary sector.
The free-text comments made by participants in this exercise
were added to the workbook.
Following a  review of the workbook and the results from the Inter –
net questionnaire, 16 groups of drivers were identi /f_ied.
2.2.3. WP 1.3: Selection of key contextual drivers
The aim of WP  1.3 was to select the key contextual drivers from
the consolidated set of 16 groups of drivers produced in WP  1.2.
Selection of the key drivers was achieved through a  simple voting
exercise using the External Communities area of the HSE’s web –
site. Short versions of the driver descriptions were reproduced in
the voting table, with the longer descriptions available if required.
Participants were invited to give each driver from the consoli –
dated list a  score of between 1 and 7 in terms of its importance
to the creation of a  green economy in Europe by 2020 (1  = low
(4) More information about SNAP Survey software is available online ( http://www.
snapsurveys.com/ ).importance, 7  = high importance). The drivers were ranked by
taking the mean of the scores awarded to each driver.
Those invited to vote comprised the following:
t
the 25 interviewees in WP  1.2;
t
the /f_ive members of the project team;
t
the Director of EU-OSHA and the two Project Managers from
EU-OSHA’s ERO;
t
government, employer and trade union representatives from
EU-OSHA’s former ERO Advisory Group (EROAG)  (5);
t
a selection of 12 of those who responded to the Internet sur –
vey in WP  1.2.
Responses were received from 37 of the 50 invited to participate.
2.3. Project Phase 2:
Key technologies
The aim of Phase  2 of the project was to identify and describe the
key technological innovations that may be introduced in green
jobs by 2020 and that may lead to new and emerging risks in
the workplace. This phase comprised three Work Packages (WP).
t
WP 2.1: Review of existing material on technological innova –
tions that may be introduced in green jobs by 2020 and may
impact, positively or negatively, on workers’ safety and health
t
WP 2.2: Consultation exercise using the expertise of key peo –
ple who may be aware of important technological innovations
not yet described in published material; this was carried out
by interviews with experts and by an Internet-based survey
to consolidate the list of technologies
t
WP 2.3: Selection of the key technologies from the results
of WP  2.2 to be studied in Phase  3; the selection was based
on all the data from Phase  2 and informed by a  workshop of
invited experts
The results of Phase  2 are presented in Chapter  4: more detailed
information on Phase  2 is available in the report on Phase  2 of
the project (EU-OSHA, 2011b).
(5) The ERO Advisory Group (EROAG) was replaced by the Prevention and
Research Advisory Group (PRAG) in the course of the project.

Methodology
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 292.3.1. WP 2.1: Review of existing information on technological
innovations
The aim of WP  2.1 was to undertake a  review of existing informa –
tion in order to identify technological innovations that may be
introduced into green jobs.
An initial literature review was carried out by the Health and
Safety Executive’s Library and Information Service (LIS), which
has access to a  wide range of subscription databases. Searches
were carried out using the following database services:
t
OSH-ROM containing bibliographic databases including:
CISDOC (International Labour Office); NIOSHTIC (United
States National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health);
HSELINE; MHIDAS (US Major Hazard Incident Data Service);
RILOSH (Ryerson International Labour, Occupational Safety
and Health Index, Canada); and MEDLINE OEM;
t
Web of Science® (Thomson Reuters) — a  bibliographic data –
base containing Science Citation Index, Social Sciences Cita –
tion Index and Arts and Humanities Citation Index;
t
Dialogue, of which the databases searched were CAB
Abstracts; Biosis Previews; NTIS (US National Technical
Information Service); Wilson Applied Science & Technology
Abstracts; Ei Compendex®; New Scientist ; and
t
STN (online database service), the following databases
searched were: Healsafe; Environmental Engineering
Abstracts; Abstracts in New Technologies and Engineering.
Given the emphasis on new technologies, searches were limited
to the period after 2005.
Searches speci /f_ically for new technologies in green jobs were not
particularly fruitful. Searches for ‘new technologies’ tended to
be dominated by nanotechnologies. Overall, the searches listed
above provided 108 hits, of which 47 related to nanotechnologies.
In addition to using database services, LIS carried out Internet
searches using a  range of keywords derived from earlier results.
Roadmaps were targeted in particular as it was expected that
these might provide a  guide to the potential for development
of technologies; health and safety impacts of technologies were
also targeted.
The searches carried out by LIS were supplemented by independ –
ent searches by the project team, relying largely on the Internet,
covering a  range of sources and websites of relevant organisa –
tions. In addition, information on technologies from earlier work
by team members was included.
The Internet searches by LIS and the project team yielded a  fur-
ther 205 hits.The project team sifted the hits on the basis of relevance as indi –
cated by the title or — where available — the abstract, to identify
those most likely to provide relevant information.
The results from the searches were analysed and used to produce
a short report describing 26 technologies or technology areas,
which was supplied as brie /f_ing material to participants in WP  2.2.
2.3.2. WP 2.2: Consolidation of the list of technological
innovations
The aim of WP  2.2 was to consolidate the results of WP  2.1 using
the expertise of key people who might also be aware of addi –
tional technological innovations not yet described in published
material.
The consolidation stage was based on two consultation exercises.
Interview programme
The /f_irst consultation exercise comprised telephone interviews
with 26 selected individuals. The selection of interviewees was
designed to provide a  mixture of OSH experts and technol –
ogy experts. In addition, a  mixture of those experts consulted
in Phase  1 (to provide some continuity) and of new consultees
was selected. It was not practicable to consult experts for each
of the technologies and, in any case, our view was that technol –
ogy experts with a  broader background would be better capable
of comparing and contrasting the di fferent technologies. Those
interviewed are listed in Annex  5.
Interviewees were advised that interviews would be non-attrib –
utable, so comments could not be linked to any individual. Inter –
viewees were also advised that we were seeking their views as
experts, rather than the o fficial views of their organisation.
The following question set was used.
Question  1
Having read the report, are there any technologies, particularly
new and emerging technologies that are missing from the report
that are relevant, or could be relevant in the next 10 years, to
green jobs? (The technology itself need not necessarily be green,
if it contributes to green jobs.)
Question 2
Are there any technologies/sectors in the report that you think
don’t belong — that are not relevant to green jobs?
Question  3
Of the technologies/sectors that are in the report or that we have
discussed, which do you think will develop most quickly over the
next 10 years and how?

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
30 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkQuestion  4
Which technologies/sectors do you think have the most signi /f_i-
cance, either positive or negative for OSH? What are the hazards
to workers? Do you have any views on the size of the impact (num –
bers of people a ffected, severity of harm, exposure situations)?
Question  5
How do you think that those technologies/sectors (if not already
covered in Question  4) will develop and what are the uncertainties
that might a ffect that development?
Question  6
Thinking outside the areas we have already discussed, in what
circumstances (e.g. jobs or sectors not yet in existence) do you
think we might encounter new technologies in green jobs? Be
as speculative or outrageous as you like.
Question  7
If you had to choose just one of the technologies we have talked
about for inclusion in the scenarios, which one would you choose?
Question  8
Closing discussion: How did you /f_ind the report/the interview
experience? Do you have any comments on the /f_indings? Are
there any other points you would like to make?
Internet questionnaire
The second consultation exercise was run alongside the interview
programme. It consisted of an Internet-based questionnaire in
the External Communities area of the HSE website, to which 42
responses were received.
Participants were asked to score each technology on a  scale of 1
to 7 (where 7 is high) for their potential for technical development
and for their potential impact on OSH. In addition, a  free-text com –
ments box was available for each technology. At the end of the
questionnaire, participants were asked for any further comments
and whether they thought there were any other new technologies
that could take place in green jobs by 2020 that should be added
to the list. They were also asked, ‘If you were to select one of the
technologies described in this survey for our investigation into the
risks to workers’ safety and health caused by new technologies
in green jobs, which one would you choose?’
The questionnaire was publicised through articles in the Health
and Safety Executive’s Science and Research Outlook newsletter
(HSE, 2012) and in EU-OSHA’s OSHmail newsletter (EU-OSHA,
2011c). Overall, about 50  000 people were potentially exposed
to the questionnaire.
The results from the interview programme and the Internet
consultation exercise were used to compile a  report containing a consolidated list of 34 technologies or technology areas, which
was used to inform participants in WP  2.3. The consolidated list
is presented in Annex  6.
2.3.3. WP 2.3: Selection of key technologies
The aim of WP  2.3 was to select the key technologies to be
explored in the workshops in the scenario work of Phase  3 of the
project from the consolidated list of 34 technologies from WP  2.2.
The information gathered during the interview programme and
the Internet consultation in WP  2.2 was supplemented by dis –
cussions and exercises at an expert workshop held in Manches –
ter, United Kingdom, in May 2011. The experts invited covered
a range of technology areas and OSH. All members of EU-OSHA’s
former ERO Advisory Group (EROAG) were also invited. Some of
the attendees had earlier been interviewed in WP  2.2. The work –
shop participants are listed in Annex  7.
The workshop began with two introductory presentations: the
/f_irst on the origins of the project and the second on its design.
The remainder of the workshop was structured around three
sessions. The /f_irst two sessions, in the same format, were aimed
at producing a  shortlist, based on the importance for OSH, of
18 main technologies (out of the 34 resulting from WP  2.2) to
be considered for possible inclusion in Phase  3 of the project.
Nine energy-related technologies and nine non-energy-related
technologies were needed for the shortlist. The third session
was devoted to selecting the top technologies, from those 18
preselected, to be explored in more depth in the workshops in
Phase  3 of the project.
Energy technologies
The /f_irst session, on energy technologies, started with a  presenta –
tion by Dr Lee Kenny of the UK HSE who called on her recent expe –
rience in the HSE’s Emerging Energy Technologies programme
to cover a  wide range of energy-related topics and technologies
from both technical and OSH angles.
Delegates were then asked, in groups of two or three, to arrange
cards bearing descriptions of each of the energy technologies
(Annex  6, 1–16) in order in terms of their potential impact on OSH
in green jobs, while at the same time bearing in mind the aim
of the exercise, which was to select technologies that would be
relevant to explore in the scenarios in Phase  3. They were allowed
to merge technologies if they wished, but not to disaggregate
them. After the initial placement of the cards, there was discus –
sion, aided by a  facilitator, during which adjustments were made
to the order of the cards until a  /f_inal order was reached.
Delegates then worked in three groups to construct timelines
showing expected developments in each of the nine selected
technologies between 2010 and 2025, and to list what they
thought would be the key dependencies (factors that might
affect the direction or rate of development of the technology) and
uncertainties (those factors that might a ffect the development of
the technology whose in /f_luence or own progress is uncertain).

Methodology
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 31The year 2025 was chosen rather than 2020 as in the project title,
in order to stretch thinking so that changes after 2020, the early
signs of which might be evident by 2020, could be included. Each
group worked on three technologies.
Non-energy technologies
This session started with a  presentation from Dr Mike Pitts, Chem –
istry Innovations Ltd, who covered a  wide range of topics suitably
illustrated with many interesting examples.
The prioritisation exercise and the construction of timelines for
the non-energy technologies (Annex  6, 17–34) followed the same
methodology as for the energy technologies.
Voting
In the /f_inal session, delegates voted on the 18 topics selected
from the energy and non-energy exercises. The timelines and
sheets listing the uncertainties/dependencies for each technol –
ogy were posted around the room. A  spokesperson from each
group summarised the main points of their discussion to the
plenary session. Delegates then studied the outputs from all the
groups and then voted for the eight technologies they would
like to see go forward into Phase  3. Each delegate had to select
their top technology (green vote) and seven others (red votes).
Each delegate had to vote for at least two energy technologies
and two non-energy technologies, and could not cast more than
one vote for any single technology. This was followed by a  plenary
discussion of the results.
The final selection of the key technologies for the Phase  3
workshops was made by the project team in consultation with
EU-OSHA.
2.4. Project Phase 3: Scenarios
2.4.1. WP 3.1: Scenario development
A set of base scenarios was developed by the project team for the
Phase  3 technology workshops. They were based on an analysis
of the 16 drivers of change from Phase  1 that were identi /f_ied
as having the greatest importance for the creation of a  green
economy in Europe by 2020. They were combined into three
groups covering green values, the economy and innovation.
These three groups of drivers were mapped on three axes to cre –
ate the scenario framework, in which the base scenarios were
then developed.
The process of scenario development and the three resulting sce –
narios (Win-Win, Bonus World and Deep Green) are described in
more detail in Chapter  5.2.4.2. Technology workshops
Seven workshops were held to consider the key technologies
identi /f_ied in Phase  2.
The objectives of the workshops were to explore the develop –
ment pathways for each technology across the scenarios and
the respective OSH implications. Invitees included a  mixture of
technical experts and OSH experts as well as members of EU-
OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG). Details
of technology workshop participants are given in Annex  8. The
following workshops were held.
1. Wind energy — Manchester, 28 and 29  September 2011
2. Green construction (buildings) — Manchester, 29 and 30  Sep-
tember 2011
3. Bioenergy and the energy applications of biotechnology —
Tallinn, 5 and 6  October 2011
4. Waste and recycling — Tallinn, 6 and 7  October 2011
5. Green transport — Brussels, 2 and 3  November 2011
6. Green manufacturing technologies and processes, and robot –
ics and automation — Brussels, 3 and 4  November 2011
7. Domestic and small-scale renewable energy, energy storage
and batteries, and energy transmission and distribution —
Bilbao, 9–11 November 2011
Nanomaterials, also identi /f_ied as a  key technology in WP  2.2, were
considered in all workshops, as a  horizontal issue. The workshops
began in the late afternoon with an introduction to the project.
This was followed by a  presentation on the technology and a  ple-
nary exercise to develop the most optimistic technology pathway,
assuming high green values, high economic growth and a  high
level of innovation directed towards new technologies in green
jobs. (This is the Win-Win scenario.) The /f_inal session on the /f_irst
evening was a  presentation and discussion of the three scenarios.
More information on the scenarios is presented in Chapter  5.
At the start of the second day, participants were divided into two
scenario groups (Bonus World and Deep Green). It was important
to have a  cross section of technology experts and OSH experts as
well as representatives from industry, trade unions and govern –
ment in each group, as a  key objective was to use the scenarios
to explore the relationship between technology developments
and OSH.
After some time to enable each group to become familiar with
their scenario and consider the key issues in it, each group gener –
ated a  technology timeline for its scenario to 2025. The timelines
were extended beyond 2020 so that issues that may start emerg –
ing in 2020 were also captured. The groups drew on their own
knowledge and used the most optimistic timelines in the context

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
32 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Workof their scenario, as well as data provided on the technology,
as sources of additional ideas. They also considered ‘horizontal’
technology issues, such as nanomaterials.
Following feedback on the two technology pathways, each group
considered the possible OSH implications of each pathway. In
addition to the technology development pathway, the groups
kept in mind the context of the scenarios, including social condi –
tions and industrial structure. Following broad discussion of the
OSH issues in the scenario the groups considered those that had
the following characteristics:
t
highest impact (severity and number a ffected);
t
highest uncertainty (wide range of outcomes); and
t
most surprising (not currently anticipated)
The /f_inal exercise was to return to the most optimistic technology
pathway (Win-Win) developed the previous evening. Following
a review of the pathway, the OSH implications were considered,
repeating the exercise previously carried out for the other two
scenarios. In most cases, individual high impact, high uncertainty
or most surprising OSH implications were considered by a  tech –
nology expert and an OSH expert working as a  pair.
Each workshop concluded with a  plenary discussion of the three
technology pathways and the most important OSH implications
for green jobs in each of the three scenarios.
The combined workshop on energy technologies followed the
same process, commencing late afternoon on the /f_irst day and
ending at the start of the afternoon on the third day.
The data captured in these workshops is recorded in Section  5.4.
These data were also integrated into the base scenarios to gener –
ate the full scenarios presented in Chapter  7.
2.4.3. WP 3.2: Testing and consolidating the scenarios
The full scenarios were tested and consolidated and their poten –
tial use for policymaking demonstrated at a  workshop in London
on 7 and 8  March 2012 (Chapter  6). This was attended by mul –
tidisciplinary representatives of employers, trade unions, rep –
resentatives of EU Member States’ governments, the European Commission and the OSH organisations listed in Annex  9. Prior to
the workshop, participants were sent a  copy of the base scenarios
and the technology pathways, and resulting OSH issues identi /f_ied
in technology workshops.
The workshop started in the early evening of 7  March 2012 with
presentations on the background to the project and the three
scenarios. The participants were then divided into three repre –
sentative groups, one for each scenario, for the exercises on the
next day. On 8  March, the workshop started with a  presentation
of a selection of OSH issues from the technology workshops. Par –
ticipants had also been given (the previous evening) a  report on
the technology and OSH detail from the technology workshops
for the scenario they would be working with. In a  preliminary
exercise, each group was asked to review its scenario and consider
potential OSH media headlines in about 2025. The purpose of
this was to immerse the participants in their respective scenarios.
In the /f_irst main exercise, participants reviewed the key OSH issues
and checked for any gaps or omissions, drawing on the report on
the results of the technology workshops. They then prioritised the
OSH issues in terms of which had the greatest impact and were
most likely to occur.
The second exercise was to develop policies to address the key
OSH issues in each scenario. These were required to include poli –
cies that related particularly to the conditions in each scenario.
The implementation of the policy was also considered, includ –
ing supply-side and demand-side measures, any obstacles to be
overcome, the resources required and the timescale.
The third exercise involved ‘wind-tunnelling’ each policy against
the other two scenarios. This was to test the robustness of a  policy
across the three scenarios, including their relevance and potential
differences in implementation, and was conducted by each group
presenting a  policy and the other two groups considering them in
their scenario. The policies were ranked in each scenario and the
resource and implementation requirements recorded.
A cross-scenario matrix of the ‘wind-tunnelling’ results was built
up during the exercise and was considered as part of the conclud –
ing plenary discussion.
The process and results of this workshop are described in
Chapter  6.

3. Phase 1: Contextual drivers of change

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
34 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkThe aim of project Phase  1 was to identify key contextual drivers
of change that could contribute to creating new and emerging
OSH risks associated with new technologies in green jobs within
10 years. The methodology applied in Phase  1 is described in
Section  2.2: more detailed information is available in the report
on Phase  1 of the project (EU-OSHA, 2011a).
3.1. Consolidated driver set
Following a  literature review of global, European, and national
studies (Annex  2), a  consolidated list of contextual drivers of
change was produced by means of interviews with 25 selected
experts and an Internet questionnaire. The data from each of
these stages are presented in the report on Phase  1 of the pro –
ject (EU-OSHA, 2011a). Based on these analyses, the following
consolidated set of 16 drivers of change was determined:
t
environment;
t
government incentives;
t
government controls;
t
public opinion;
t
public behaviour;
t
economic growth;
t
international issues;
t
energy security issues;
t
renewable energy technologies;
t
fossil fuel technologies;
t
nuclear energy;
t
electricity distribution, storage and use;
t
energy e fficiency improvements;
t
growth in waste and recycling;
t
other technologies; and
t
demographics and the workforce.
Each of these drivers is now examined in detail.
Environment
The state of the environment is inevitably the key driver of green
activities, either in terms of short-term issues such as pollution, or longer-term issues such as increasing carbon dioxide emissions and
climate change, generally considered to be due to human activity.
Scienti /f_ic and media reports on climate change and other environ –
mental issues will drive public opinion, which may, in turn, in /f_lu-
ence politicians and industry to act. Increasingly extreme weather
and other observable physical e ffects of climate change such as
temperature rises and natural disasters that may be attributable
to climate change will further drive public opinion, strengthen –
ing the position of pressure groups and potentially in /f_luencing
government policies.
Climate change may lead to water shortages in parts of the world,
such as southern Spain, so activities to store water and to use less
will become increasingly important. Desalination might become
more important. Climate change may drive the need for more
efficient and/or more local food production. This could lead to an
increase or decrease in jobs, depending on the solutions adopted.
Increasing energy costs could lead to a  decrease in the transport
of food, resulting in more local food production.
Other environmental concerns including famine, pollution, man-
made disasters (especially those related to the energy sector),
the depletion of natural resources other than fossil fuels (e.g.
the increasing demand for minerals and other commodities by
emerging economies) will add to the issues previously described.
Government incentives
Government incentives for green activities are likely to have
a strong in /f_luence on the creation of green jobs. Examples of gov –
ernment incentives, which can be /f_inancial or enabling, include
the following.
t
Governments having clear and stable energy policies and
taking a  long-term view to create a  favourable climate for
investment will make investment in new technologies more
attractive.
t
Government investment in research and development would
likely boost the creation of green jobs; actions would include
developing clear criteria to prioritise research in order to
target funding towards environmentally friendly activities,
developing energy-research capabilities and promoting the
development of technology clusters.
t
Many companies developing green technologies are SMEs
that need capital to invest in green technologies and insur –
ance cover for speculative ventures. Governments o ffering
technical assistance or innovative /f_inancing for private invest –
ment (e.g. by underwriting) may encourage venture capitalist
/f_irms to recognise that green technology development can
give signi /f_icant business opportunities.
t
Simplifying planning controls for green activities, implemen –
tation of waste collection and recycling schemes is another
approach likely to boost green employment.

Phase 1: Contextual drivers of change
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 35t
Governments may also offer loans, subsidies, rewards or
favourable tax regimes for the following:
ș retro /f_itting energy-e fficiency measures in existing buildings;
șcar scrappage schemes that replace older, polluting vehi –
cles with more carbon-e fficient vehicles;
șreduced tolls for energy-e fficient vehicles;
șrecycling;
șless energy-dependent, less material-dependent and less
waste-generating manufacturing processes and products;
and
șlocally generated electricity; for example, feed-in-tari ffs
for solar energy were very successful in Germany and
Spain, and have had signi /f_icant impact since their intro –
duction in the United Kingdom in April 2010.
t
Many observers fear that a  shortage of skills will hamper the
development of green activities and, therefore, green jobs.
Action to encourage education in science, technology, engi –
neering and mathematics, to identify the skills gaps and to
provide relevant training will promote the creation of green
jobs. Skill levels are important to health and safety.
t
Where jobs in other sectors may be lost as a  result of the crea –
tion of green jobs, action to retrain and redeploy displaced
staff may reduce the risk of opposition to green job creation.
The key to the growth of the green sector is the extent to which
incentives are successful in encouraging the creation of green jobs.
Government controls
As an alternative to incentives for undertaking green activities,
governments can impose controls on polluting activities. These
controls include regulation, taxing of high carbon and pollut –
ing activities (e.g. aviation and motoring) and, in some cases, the
removal of ‘perverse’ subsidies on fossil fuel use.
Examples include:
t
land /f_ill taxes to encourage reduction in waste and an increase
in recycling;
t
carbon pricing and carbon trading, for example the EU’s Emis –
sions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS);
t
extended producer responsibility laws (requiring companies
to take back products at the end of their useful life) for all
types of products;
t
a requirement for eco-labelling of consumer products to
ensure that consumers have access to the information they need to make responsible purchases; this will encourage man –
ufacturers to design and market more eco-friendly products;
t
emissions targets;
t
developing green building regulations, such as the Directive
on the Energy Performance of Buildings (2003), energy con –
servation standards, or other requirements for new green
buildings or retro /f_its of existing buildings;
t
higher levels of tax for the most polluting vehicles, develop –
ing energy-e fficiency standards for appliances; vehicles, etc.;
t
requirements for biofuel content of diesel fuel;
t
proportionate health and safety legislation.
Public opinion
Public opinion on environmental issues — in particular climate
change, and the extent to which the public believe that human
activities contribute to climate change — will in /f_luence politicians
and businesses. Pressure groups and campaigns will in /f_luence
governments, while commercial pressures will have more impact
on producers.
If people believe that CO2 emissions play a  major part in global
warming, then they will be increasingly likely to support low-
carbon energy sources. However, the general public’s growing
intolerance of risk, coupled with their inability to properly assess
risk, may lead to reluctance to adopt new (green) technologies.
A major accident involving new technologies such as carbon cap –
ture and storage (CCS) could seriously hold back development.
On the other hand, the public may favour newer renewable and
sustainable technologies over older, dirtier technology. Improved
risk communication might a ffect people’s attitudes.
Public opinion on other environmental issues and opposition to
activities that damage the environment could drive the creation
of green jobs in environmental protection. However, shortages
of essential natural resources could eventually result in con /f_lict
between our material needs and protection of the environment.
Public opinion and competitiveness issues could drive corporate
social responsibility programmes leading to companies making
efforts to operate more e fficiently and sustainably.
Public behaviour
Public opinion in favour of green activities will in /f_luence the
creation of green jobs. But, unless consumers demonstrate their
support for green activities through demand for green products
(e.g. by their use of energy e fficiency measures, changing their
travelling patterns (using fuel-e fficient vehicles, electric vehicles
or choosing public transport), and supporting recycling schemes),
the incentive for manufacturers to o ffer environmentally friendly
products will be diminished.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
36 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkEconomic growth
European economic growth will be a  signi /f_icant factor in the crea –
tion of green jobs. The state of European economies will have
a signi /f_icant e ffect on the availability of resources with which to
tackle environmental issues. On the one hand, a  healthy economy
and the availability of capital for investment could give business
the con /f_idence to invest in new technologies, driving the crea –
tion of green jobs. On the other hand, many governments may
see the need to boost their economies in the wake of the global
recession as an opportunity to green their economies by targeting
environmentally sound activities. It may be that the costs involved
in major engineering projects will be lower over the next few
years as contractors compete for business in a  reduced market.
Green activities may offer commercial opportunities outside
Europe for European companies. The global market for environ –
mental products and services (e fficiency, recycling, water sanita –
tion and e fficiency and sustainable transport) is reported to be
currently EUR  1 000 billion, and could reach EUR  2 200 billion by
2020. Any future growth of the EU could lead to potentially big –
ger markets for green technology. The availability of a  sizeable
domestic market for green products and services and a  require –
ment for local content will make developments more attractive
to potential investors.
International issues
Globalisation, itself driven in part by the availability of cheap
transport, is now leading to ever-increasing demand for energy
and natural resources as emerging economies, bene /f_iting from
global trade, increase their own use.
Increasing competition for natural resources from emerging
economies and increasing use at home will lead to greater
efforts in areas such as recycling, more e fficient production
and reduction of waste. In addition, competition from emerging
economies in production drives cost-cutting in Europe, resulting
in greater e fficiency.
Emerging economies such as China and India are growing more
quickly than OECD countries and their economic in /f_luence will
increase accordingly. This is leading to increasing political in /f_lu-
ence as seen in, for example, China’s ability to a ffect decisions
on carbon targets at the Copenhagen Climate Change Confer –
ence in 2009.
The current global economy has been enabled by, among other
factors, increasingly liberal trade conditions. Continuation or
re-emergence of recession could drive a  return to protection –
ism. This could a ffect prices and availability of natural resources,
including energy.
The continuing instability of the Middle East, Russian control of
gas pipelines, etc., gives rise to concerns about fossil fuel security.
Continuing con /f_licts or acts of terrorism that increase instability
will cause fears about oil supplies.Energy security issues
The need or desire for energy security, in particular reduced
dependency on imported oil and gas, is undoubtedly a  major
driver, alongside climate change, in the search for alternative
energy sources and improved energy e fficiency.
As easy-to-reach oil and gas resources decline and demand
increases, there will be increasing pressure to improve fuel e ffi-
ciency and to seek alternative, renewable fuel sources. In addi –
tion to its transport and heating uses, oil is a  feedstock for many
industrial processes and so shortage and increasing prices will
drive e fficiency improvements and use of alternative sources,
such as biomass.
In addition to concerns about reserves of available oil and gas,
the ongoing risks of con /f_lict and unrest in some of the source
countries is another factor in the desire for independence from
imported energy.
Renewable energy technologies
The availability and a ffordability of renewable energy technolo –
gies (e.g. wind, wave and solar energy, and biofuels) leading to
increasing uptake of these technologies will drive the creation
of green jobs. As the cost of energy from renewable sources
decreases, whether as a  result of technological innovation or as
a result of subsidies and incentives, its popularity and rate/extent
of adoption will increase. As renewable technologies develop,
they will introduce new OSH risks, some known and some, as
yet, unknown.
Fossil fuel technologies
Reliance on fossil fuels will continue for some years. The develop –
ment and availability of technologies, for example CCS (including
geoengineering approaches such as ambient air carbon capture
and ocean seeding) and clean coal technologies, to allow the
continued use of fossil fuels, will become increasingly important.
Successful testing and development of CCS and clean coal tech –
nologies will result in increasing numbers of jobs in this sector,
although numbers by 2020 may not be great. It is not universally
agreed that such jobs qualify as green jobs. Since the technologies
aim to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide in order to combat
climate change, their role is, indeed, environmental protection.
However, it might also be argued that they are not sustainable,
long-term solutions and that they may just be shifting risks or
creating other environmental risks.
Nuclear energy
Nuclear energy was not considered to be environmentally friendly
when originally introduced. However, in the face of increasing
carbon emissions, a  different view might be taken. One signi /f_icant
environmental group has changed its view on nuclear energy.

Phase 1: Contextual drivers of change
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 37Whether or not nuclear energy is considered to be green itself,
the extent of its use will a ffect the numbers of other green jobs.
Electricity distribution, storage and use
As distributed generation of electricity by renewable sources such
as wind turbines, small-scale hydroelectricity and combined heat
and power increases, ageing grids may be unable to handle two-
way tra ffic or cope easily with the /f_luctuating output from renew –
able sources. A  smart grid will need to be developed, alongside
better ways of storing electricity (e.g. improved battery technol –
ogy, hydrogen, electric vehicles).
Development of smart grid technology and other associated tech –
nologies, resulting in more e fficient use of power, would lead to
green jobs. The development of a  smart grid will require a  cor-
responding development in information and communication
technology (ICT) to control the grid.
Introduction of these new technologies for distribution, storage
and use of electricity may bring new risks.
Energy e fficiency improvements
Opportunities for green jobs will be created in the construction
of new energy-e fficient buildings, in retro /f_itting energy-e fficiency
measures to older buildings, in less energy-demanding manufac –
turing and in the adoption of more e fficient means of transport
— either alternatives to fossil fuel or making more use of public
transport.
These, in turn, will be driven by increased awareness of the ben –
e/f_its, reducing or subsidised prices, policies and standards on
energy e fficiency and public procurement policies.
Growth in waste and recycling
Continued growth in waste management and recycling, driven
by environmental concerns and shortages and prices of natural
resources, will lead to increasing employment in this sector. Inter –
national pressures and public opinion could mean that it may no
longer be acceptable to export waste to developing countries.
Increasing transport and labour costs overseas will also contribute
to this trend. Jobs in this sector are often low-quality jobs carried
out by vulnerable workers. Risks can include manual handling
during collection and sorting, potential exposure to dangerous
objects, hazardous chemicals that may become concentrated dur –
ing processing, biohazards, toxic or /f_lammable gases, etc. What
we are manufacturing now will become waste during the next 10
years. Examples include solar panels that contain toxic chemicals,
low-energy light bulbs that contain mercury and nanomaterials.
Land /f_ill mining is now being carried out as a  way of recovering
valuable materials from previously discarded waste. Food waste
is increasingly being directed to anaerobic digestion.Other technologies
Developing technologies other than energy technologies may
in/f_luence health and safety risks in green jobs, as indicated in
the following.
t
Nanotechnologies: It is likely that nanotechnologies will
contribute to green issues in various ways (e.g. changes in
manufacturing resulting in saving of natural resources, novel
materials, desalination, changes in food production, and car –
bon nanotubes in new battery designs). New materials and
nanoparticles may bring health and safety risks as well as
environmental risks.
t
Biotechnologies: The use of synthetic biology and genetic
modi /f_ication techniques to generate desired traits in crops
and animals may have health and safety implications. Genetic
testing could be used to identify those at particular risk from
toxic substances.
t
Climate change mitigation technologies: These include
coastal defences, reinforcing of buildings, water manage –
ment, harvesting, and adapting agriculture in the direction
of agroforestry. E fforts to protect and make the most e fficient
use of land could lead to increased food production and green
jobs and may bring new risks.
t
Sustainable manufacturing/green chemistry: Manufac –
turing making use of low-carbon technologies, renewable
and non-toxic materials, recycling and low waste has strong
green credentials, but new manufacturing methods and new
or substitute substances may bring changes in health and
safety risks.
Demographics and the workforce
The increasing population, both worldwide and in Europe, is likely
to increase the use of energy and natural resources, driving the
need for ever-more energy e fficiency, sustainable development,
recycling and other steps to reduce and manage the environmen –
tal impact of human activity.
Changing lifestyles may also a ffect the use of energy and other
resources: increasing urbanisation of populations and the grow –
ing number of single households are likely to increase energy use.
Increasing numbers of older people in the general population and
in the workforce will have an impact on energy use and the poten –
tial for health and safety issues. Older people tend to use more
energy in the home, but less on transport. Older workers may
be more susceptible to speci /f_ic risks in the workplace (e.g. from
new technologies and substances, and to risks of musculoskeletal
disorders). However, older workers also present some strengths:
they are generally more dedicated to the workplace; have fewer
sickness absences; stay in jobs longer; and have stronger skills
and greater experience and maturity.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
38 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkAs many post-war baby boomers reach retirement, there may be
a loss of essential skills in the workplace and a  resulting threat to
health and safety in work generally, including green jobs.
A shortage of the skills necessary in some green jobs means that
migrant labour is used to /f_ill vacancies: migrant workers can be
at greater risk of accidents and work-related ill health than local
staff owing to language and cultural issues. They are also typi –
cally more often employed in more risky jobs, in more precarious
conditions, and may receive less training.
Climate change might modify migration patterns (e.g. owing to
water shortages in some regions of the world) and new popula –
tions of migrant workers with di fferent characteristics might be
found in the EU, or the migration /f_low might also be modi /f_ied.
3.2. Selection of key contextual
drivers
The results of the voting on the key contextual drivers (from the
survey described in Section  2.2.3 ) are shown in Table  3. A score
of 1 means a  low level of importance and 7 a  high level of impor –
tance to the creation of green jobs. There were no ‘runaway’
winners. The following drivers were considered most important:
the state of, and impact on, the environment; government inter –
ventions; the state of the economy; the availability of renewable energy and energy-e fficiency technologies; and public opinion.
At the other end of the scale, fossil fuel technologies and nuclear
energy were considered the least important.
A number of key uncertainties surrounding the creation of green
jobs also arose from Phase  1. They include the following.
t
The pace and direction of a  change to a  low-carbon econ –
omy — Which technologies will succeed and what will be
the energy mix by 2020?
t
The e ffect that political and social attitudes will have — Will
governments rise to the challenge and take the appropriate
steps?
t
What will the future market conditions and funding models
be as the world climbs out of recession?
t
How will the increasing in /f_luence of the emerging economies
affect Europe?
t
How will all the previous points a ffect working conditions, and
will a  truly sustainable economy be achieved, where decent,
healthy and safe working conditions are provided for the
diverse workforce?
The results of Phase  1 were taken forward to Phase  3 to generate
the base scenarios (Chapter  5).
Table 3: Ranking of drivers after voting exercise
Ranking DriverMean
ScoreRanking DriverMean
Score
1= Government controls 5.81 9 Other technologies 4.81
1= Government incentives 5.81 10 Energy security issues 4.70
3 Environment 5.62 11 Electricity distribution, storage and use 4.62
4 Renewable energy technologies 5.54 12 Public behaviour 4.51
5 Economic growth 5.27 13 International issues 4.35
6= Energy e fficiency improvements 5.21 14 Demographics and the workforce 4.15
6= Public opinion 5.21 15 Fossil fuel technologies 3.97
8 Growth in waste management
and recycling5.03 16 Nuclear energy 3.59

4. Phase 2: Key new technologies

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
40 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkThis chapter describes the work carried out in Phase  2, the aim of
which was to identify key new technologies that could contribute
to creating new and emerging OSH risks in green jobs by 2020.
The methodology used is described in Section  2.3: more detailed
information about Phase  2 is available in the report on Phase  2 of
the project (EU-OSHA, 2011b).
4.1. Results of the literature
review
Information on emerging technologies, their potential health
and safety implications, and their potential for development was
extracted from approximately 40 selected references.
In deciding which technologies to include, it was important to
remember that the aim of the project was ‘new and emerging
technologies in green jobs’. Thus, it is the jobs that are green, not
necessarily the technologies. Therefore, the selection of emerg –
ing technologies was necessarily in /f_luenced by their relevance to
work sectors in which green jobs are to be found. The focus was
also on those areas that are large enough to be signi /f_icant and
with the potential for variability to lead to useful contributions
to scenarios.
The following sectors were selected: energy; transport; manu –
facturing; construction; agriculture, forestry and food; waste,
recycling and environmental remediation; and medicine and
healthcare technologies.
In identifying technologies, it was important to classify them at
the right level to take forward to scenarios — not so narrow as to
limit possibilities for interesting technology development path –
ways, but not so broad as to be unmanageable. The result was
that, for the most part, technological areas were identi /f_ied, each
of which may contain several related technologies.
In some cases, a  sector was classi /f_ied as a  technology area. This
was a  pragmatic approach and is consistent with the approach
taken by European Technology Platforms, which treat several
industrial sectors as discrete technology areas (CORDIS, 2012).
Inevitably, there was some duplication and some technologies
appeared in more than one area. Table  4 provides a  list of the 26
technology areas and sectors identi /f_ied, and the links between
them. Only signi /f_icant links are indicated in Table  4. Thus, for
example, while transport and construction have relevance in
some way to all sectors and technologies, we have noted only
links where new technologies contribute to transport or construc –
tion rather than the contribution of transport and construction
to other sectors.
Unsurprisingly, in the context of this report, energy technologies
made up a  considerable proportion of the technologies identi /f_ied.This table includes only the initial 26 technologies identi /f_ied by
the literature search. After the interview programme and Internet
survey (Section 4.2.1), 34 technologies were taken forward to the
Phase  2 workshop (Annex  6).
4.2. Consolidation of the list of
technological innovations
4.2.1. Interview programme
Twenty-six experts, listed in Annex  5, were interviewed by the
project team (for the methodology, see Section  2.3.2).
In response to Question  1 on whether there are any technologies,
particularly new and emerging technologies, missing from the
report, interviewees made several suggestions. Some of these
were additions or amendments to technologies already in the
list, while others were potential candidates for addition to the list.
Two interviewees suggested that extraction technologies should
feature in the list. A  signi /f_icant proportion of the world’s energy
goes into extracting minerals, some of which are essential to the
other technologies in the list. Improved e fficiency in extraction
techniques would make a  valuable contribution to reducing
energy use. This suggestion was taken on board.
“Better mineral extraction technologies. Rare minerals are fun –
damental to many of the other technologies listed. It’s a  very
energy-intensive industry. Some 3–5  % of the world’s electric –
ity goes into smashing up rocks so savings would be helpful.
Despite recycling, we have to accept that we will still need to
access natural resources.”
The omission of the health sector was noted. Alongside that, the
absence of the convergent technologies (sometimes known as
NBIC — Nano, Bio, Information and Cognitive sciences) and their
application to human performance enhancement attracted com –
ment. In an earlier draft of the report, ‘medicine and healthcare
technologies’ had been included, but then it was removed, as it
would have an impact on a  wider range of jobs than just green
jobs. The same challenge could be levelled at robotics and ICT.
For this reason, this category and NBIC were reinstated for dis –
cussion at the workshop. However, the related ‘singularity’ was
not included — the ‘point at which we see sudden technological
change so rapid and profound it represents a  rupture in the fabric
of human history’ — because this was seen as likely to occur well
beyond 2020.
Photonics — the technology of transmission, control, and detec –
tion of light (photons), as in /f_ibre optics and optoelectronics —
was suggested as an additional technology. Like other ‘new’
technologies, it has been in existence for some years, but is now
developing quickly and /f_inding increasing applications. It con –
tributes, for example, to ICT and to laser manufacturing. Like ICT,

Phase 2: Key new technologies
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 41Table 4: Technologies (left hand column) and sectors (top line) resulting from the literature review show signi /f_icant overlapsEnergy
Transport
Manufacturing
Construction
Agriculture,
forestry and food
Waste, recycling
and environmental
remediation
1. Wind energy technologies 9 99 9
2. Marine energy technologies 9 99
3. Solar energy technologies 9 99 9 9
4. Bioenergy technologies 99 9 9 9
5. Geothermal technologies 9 99 9
6. Hydroelectricity technologies 9 9
7. Carbon capture and storage technologies 9 9
8. Clean coal technologies 9
9. Other fossil fuel technologies 9
10. Nuclear technology 9
11. Electricity transmission technologies 9 9 9 9
12. Electricity storage technologies 99 9
13. Battery technology 99 9
14. Hydrogen and fuel cell technologies 99 9
15. Domestic and small-scale energy applications 99 9 9
16. Biotechnologies 9 99 9 9
17. Green chemistry 9 9 9
18. Novel materials 9999 9
19. Nanotechnologies and nanomaterials 9 99 9 9
20. Robotics, automation and arti /f_icial intelligence 9999 9 9
21. Information and communication technologies 9999 9 9
22. Green transport technologies 9
23. Green manufacturing technologies 9 9 9
24. Green construction technologies 99
25. Agriculture, forestry and food technologies 9 9
26. Waste, recycling and environmental remediation technologies 9 9 9

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
42 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Workits applications will be relevant to green jobs, but not limited to
them. Again, this was included for discussion at the workshop.
Other comments included the following.
t
“More should be included on the risks to the self-employed
and the public from domestic and small-scale novel energy
technologies.” This was added to the description in the con –
solidated technology list.
t
“Solar PV and concentrating solar power should be separated
as they rely on di fferent technology and present di fferent
risks.” This was included in the consolidated technology list.
t
“Waste and recycling could be separated. They are quite dif –
ferent and usually carried out by di fferent people.” Waste and
recycling are often taken together, but the point was made
that waste management and recycling are often carried out
by di fferent people with di fferent skills. Furthermore, recy –
cling is becoming increasingly sophisticated. Therefore, they
were separated in the consolidated technology list and the
reaction of the workshop to this was awaited. As a  conse –
quence, environmental remediation was given its own cat –
egory and geoengineering was added.
t
“The use of carbon dioxide as a  new source for plastics.” This
was added to the description of green chemistry in the con –
solidated technology list.
t
“Eco-tourism. This is not a  technology, but will be a  source
of green jobs.” This was not added to the list as it is not
a technology.
t
“Clean coal and CCS should be merged and CCS should
include transport.” Transport of CO2 is identi /f_ied in the list of
technologies. CCS was not merged with clean coal, as CCS is
not limited to coal and can be applied to other areas, such as
cement manufacture.
t
“Energy storage should include the use of molten salts and
molten graphite.” This was added to the description in the
consolidated technology list.
t
“What about the cloud?” This was made explicit in the ICT
category.
t
“Hydroelectricity could include micro-scale as well as large-
and small-scales (i.e. at the level of individual households).”
This was added to the description in the consolidated tech –
nology list.
t
“In addition to the electricity grid, what about the pipe –
line grid for hydrogen, CO2, lique /f_ied natural gas, biofuels,
biogas, etc.?” This was not added. Although there are issues
(e.g. regarding the transport of hydrogen and the injection
of biomethane into the existing gas pipeline systems), no generic information on pipelines was found. Perhaps, this is
best dealt with under the individual substances.
t
“Manufacturing should mention formulation technologies
as well as fabrication. Formulation has its own di fferent skill
set.” This was added to the description in the consolidated
technology list.
Question  2 on whether any of the technologies listed did not
belong attracted relatively few responses.
Two interviewees had reservations about the inclusion of nuclear
power. While its low-carbon credentials were recognised, they
felt its full life cycle aspect was inconsistent with green status.
Similarly, the inclusion of coal and other fossil fuel technologies
was also called into question by two interviewees.
The responses to Question  3 on the technologies with the great –
est potential for development by 2020 and Question  4 on the
technologies with implications for occupational safety and health
are presented graphically in Figure  6 and Figure  7 respectively
in Annex  10.
The top eight technologies identified from the responses to
Question  3 were: wind energy; solar energy; nanotechnologies;
marine energy; battery technologies; bioenergy; biotechnolo –
gies; and ICT.
The top six technologies identi /f_ied from the responses to Ques –
tion  4 were: nanotechnologies; wind energy; biotechnologies;
solar energy; robotics and automation; and ICT. Nuclear energy,
marine energy, green chemistry, transport and construction
shared sixth place.
Given the way the information was harvested from the interviews,
the responses have limited statistical signi /f_icance (these were not
votes but citations extracted from the interview notes), but they
are interesting nonetheless.
Question  5 was not applicable in most cases.
Interviewees found Question  6 challenging. This question  asked
how they think that those technologies/sectors not already cov –
ered in Question  4 will develop and what are the uncertainties
that might a ffect that development. Some referred to existing
jobs, but there were several novel suggestions. Three di fferent
uses of outer space were identi /f_ied by three interviewees: the
use of space to carry out hazardous processes, colonisation of
the moon and space tourism.
“One activity is space tourism. It is coming. There may be risks
to the environment here. It might create some green jobs.”
Moving in another direction, working in the deep oceans was sug –
gested. However, it was decided not to include space and deep

Phase 2: Key new technologies
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 43oceans as they are unlikely to represent signi /f_icant numbers of
jobs by 2020 and are not necessarily ‘green’.
Other suggestions included employment in ‘energy storage gar –
dens’. Again, this was not considered likely to be signi /f_icant by
2020 and was, therefore, not included.
The responses to Question  7 on the preferred technology for
inclusion in Phase  3 are presented in Figure  2, combined with the
responses from the Internet survey. The clear favourite was nano –
technologies, with wind energy, bioenergy, CCS, domestic and small-
scale energy applications, and waste and recycling all equal second.
“Recycling. And, by that, I  really mean advanced processes
that preserve the performance qualities of materials. We’re
not talking about what they call ‘downcycling’ where you take
materials into a  lower grade application, where you reuse the
material without preserving the value of it. We should design
products in the /f_irst place with the end of life in mind, so they
are easier to take apart and recover the valuable components.”
4.2.2. Internet questionnaire
The purpose of the Internet questionnaire was to expose the
above results to a  wider audience than could be reached by
the interview programme alone. Although the survey could not
gather the depth of information o ffered by interviews, it provided
a source of endorsement of the /f_indings of the interviews and the
opportunity to identify any omissions.
Completed responses were obtained from 38 people from 21
countries, mostly in Europe, but including the United States. This
is a reasonable response for a  survey of this type (OECD, 2012).
Respondents included predominantly health, safety and envi –
ronment professionals and R  & D professionals. Of those who
provided information: 10 were from the public sector/govern –
ment; 11 from the private sector; 9 research or academics; 3 trade
unions; and 5 others or not stated. Nearly all had a  professional
interest in green jobs, with: 14 working in health, safety and envi –
ronment; 15 in research and development; 4 in management; 1
in policy; and 4 in other or undisclosed professions.
Not all respondents replied to all the questions on technologies,
with the number of scores /f_luctuating between 31 and 38.
The mean scores given to each technology for its potential for
development to 2020 and its potential impact on occupational
safety and health are shown in Figure  8 and Figure  9 respectively
in Annex  11.
The scores show much less separation between the technologies
than was observed in the interviews, owing to the structure of
the survey (each respondent could score all the technologies),
but the top eight technologies for development potential were:
waste and recycling; construction; solar energy technologies; ICT;
wind energy; transport technologies; domestic and small-scale
energy applications; and electricity transmission.The top eight for potential impact on OSH were: nuclear energy;
waste and recycling; nanotechnologies; bioenergy; biotechnol –
ogies; hydrogen and fuel cells; construction technologies; and
clean coal technologies.
In response to the question ‘If you could pick just one technology
for Phase  3, which one would you choose?’, nanotechnologies
and wind energy came /f_irst and second, with waste and recycling
and carbon capture and storage third and fourth respectively.
Electricity transmission, nuclear energy and green chemistry were
joint /f_ifth. These results are shown in Figure  2.
In addition to the quantitative information, a  considerable num –
ber of comments were added in the free-text boxes made avail –
able. These comments were added to the workbook prepared
from the interview responses.
4.2.3. Comparison between the interview programme and
Internet survey results
The quantitative results obtained from the interview programme
and the Internet survey were not intended, in themselves, to
determine the future of the project. Rather, they were intended to
inform the participants in the workshop that would close Phase  2
of this project.
Comparison of the top eight technologies with potential for
development showed three matches between the interviews
and the Internet survey: wind energy, solar energy and ICT.
Comparison of the top eight technologies with potential for OSH
impact showed four matches: nanotechnologies, biotechnolo –
gies, solar energy and nuclear energy.
Perhaps the most informative result was that nanotechnologies
and wind energy were /f_irst and second in both exercises as the
respondents’ top choice for inclusion in Phase  3. The combined
responses are shown in Figure  2.
4.2.4. Consolidated list of technologies
Overall, the feedback from the interview programme and the
Internet consultation, which exposed the technologies identi –
/f_ied during the literature search carried out in WP  2.1 to a  range
of experts from varying disciplines and organisations, was that
the list of technologies produced from the literature review was
very comprehensive. However, some suggestions for additional
technologies and changes to some of the entries were made and
a consolidated list of 34 technologies was produced.
This is shown in Annex  6, which includes information on potential
developments and typical health and safety hazards associated
with the technologies listed.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
44 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work4.3. Workshop on the selection
of key technologies
4.3.1. Energy technologies
Using the methodology described in Section  2.3.3, delegates
selected the top 9 of the 16 energy technologies. There were
differing opinions about the placing of nuclear energy and clean
coal technologies. Although it was agreed that they had signi /f_i-
cant impact on OSH, there was disagreement about the green
credentials of these technologies and on the usefulness of hav –
ing Phase  3 technology workshops focused on these. However,
it was emphasised that not having a  workshop dedicated to
these technologies in Phase  3 does not mean that they are not
important components of the future and should not be part of
the ‘landscape’ of the scenarios produced, but simply that there
would be no workshop speci /f_ically dedicated to them in Phase  3.
Eventually, they were discarded for the Phase  3 workshops. The
top nine energy-related technologies selected were (Annex  6,
reference no. in brackets):t
wind energy (industrial scale) (1);
t
solar energy (industrial scale) (3);
t
bioenergy (industrial scale) (5);
t
carbon capture and storage (7);
t
electricity transmission (11);
t
electricity storage (12);
t
battery technology (14);
t
hydrogen and fuel cells (15);
t
domestic and small-scale applications of emerging energy
technologies (16).
4.3.2. Non-energy technologies
In a similar prioritisation exercise for non-energy technologies,
delegates merged nanotechnologies and nanomaterials with
novel materials, extractive technologies with environmental
remediation, and waste management with recycling.Figure 2: Combined responses from interviews and the Internet survey: preferred technology for Phase  3
0246810121416Votes
Technology
Website Interviews 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 25 24 26
Key: 1.  Wind energy; 2.  Marine energy; 3.  Solar energy; 4.  Bioenergy; 5.  Geothermal energy; 6.  Hydroelectricity; 7.  Carbon capt ure and storage; 8.  Clean coal; 9.  Other fossil fuel
technologies; 10.  Nuclear energy; 11.  Electricity transmission; 12.  Electricity storage; 13.  Battery technology; 14.  Hydrogen and fuel cells; 15.  Domestic and small-scale energy;
16. Biotechnologies; 17.  Green chemistry; 18.  Novel materials; 19.  Nanotechnologies and nanomaterials; 20.  Robotics, automation and artificial intelligence; 21.  ICT; 22.  Transport
technologies; 23.  Manufacturing technologies; 24.  Construction technologies; 25.  Agriculture, forestry and food; 26.  Waste, recycling and environmental remediation

Phase 2: Key new technologies
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 45The nine technologies judged to be the most important were the
following (Annex  6, reference no. in brackets):
t
biotechnologies (17);
t
nanotechnologies and green nanomaterials/novel materials
(20/23);
t
robotics and arti /f_icial intelligence (21);
t
green transport technologies (25);
t
green manufacturing technologies (26);
t
green construction technologies (27);
t
extractive technologies/environmental remediation (28/32);
t
agriculture, forestry and food (29); and
t
waste management and recycling (30/31).
4.3.3. Voting on selected technologies
Feedback from Session  1 (selection of nine energy-related tech –
nologies) and Session  2 (selection of nine non-energy-related
technologies) (Section 2.3.3 ) now follows.
Wind energy (industrial scale)
The current model of large-scale onshore and o ffshore wind farms
is intended to continue over the decade, with wind supplying 20  %
of electricity demand by 2020. There was some uncertainty as to
whether the speed of the roll-out would meet this target. For exam –
ple, in the United Kingdom, 32  000 o ffshore turbines will need to be
built by 2020 to meet targets. This will require about 40 transfers of
workers to o ffshore sites every day, with the risk of transport acci –
dents. O ffshore accommodation will need to be built. Dependencies
for progress were political support, local acceptance (onshore), feed-
in tari ffs and funding and development of the grid. Big companies
would be the major player. A  comparison was drawn between OSH
issues of o ffshore wind and those of o ffshore oil industries.
Solar PV (industrial scale)
The materials used are complex and expensive, so development
was seen as fairly /f_lat in the absence of a  ‘step change’ technologi –
cal development, with increasing uptake of existing technology.
Uncertainties and dependencies included government incentives
such as feed-in tari ffs, availability of key elements and cost versus
other renewables.
Bioenergy (industrial scale)
There is a  diversity of producers and technologies, with companies
struggling to identify the best. Performing risk assessments in
this area is challenging. There are quality issues with biogas for injection into the grid. Biogas has low energy density, so large
quantities are needed, leading to transport and storage issues. It
is better for the plant to be near the source. Other issues include
skills, incentives and the cost of energy. Many SMEs will be produc –
ing energy (e.g. biodiesel) in addition to their core activities, with
consequent OSH challenges.
Carbon capture and storage
The demonstration of large-scale capture, large-scale storage and
small-scale transport should occur towards 2020. Large-scale roll-
out may possibly arrive in the early 2020s. Issues to be dealt with
include cross-border matters, ownership of risk, maintenance,
integrity and decommissioning.
Electricity transmission
Developments are expected in materials (e.g. cables), super –
conductors to reduce losses, high voltage to low voltage trans –
formation, the introduction of direct current (DC) to the grid,
increasing European interconnection and smart meters in most
homes by 2020. Uncertainties discussed were standards for equip –
ment, increasing microgeneration and the need for cooperation
between countries. OSH issues included domestic and small-scale
installation, including do-it-yourself installations, skills shortages,
and the danger of working on live equipment as two-way grid
connections may not be under the control of the installer, and
the pressure of targets leading to a  ‘tail-end dash’.
Electricity storage technologies
There are many competing technologies with no clear winner.
Progress will be evolutionary, not revolutionary. Political and
economic support are needed to guarantee a  /f_inancial return.
How will storage be paid for? Competencies and skills will be
important.
Battery technology
Government support and the EU Batteries Directive are driving
development. New materials are leading to improved lifetimes,
capacities and charge cycles. Electric cars will be the major applica –
tion, with the need for replacement/recharging stations (car bat –
teries may be leased and exchanged rather than recharged in the
car). Cars could be used for energy storage. Large-scale recycling
will be necessary. Disruption could be caused by lithium shortages.
Hydrogen and fuel cells
Hydrogen is a  ‘step change’ technology, and there is investment
from governments in hydrogen, but electric cars receive more,
and are a  major competitor. Increasing energy costs in the future
could make a  difference. Cheaper ways to make and store hydro –
gen are needed and government support for development of
the infrastructure is unlikely without government funding. New
materials are needed to improve the e fficiency and lifetime of
fuel cells.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
46 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkDomestic and small-scale applications of emerging energy
technologies
A range of technologies is involved — solar, hydrogen, wind, and
geothermal. There is a  major role for self-employed contractors/
small companies and/or self-installation. Accreditation and control
over installers will be important, as will the structure of the labour
market. Other factors include skills, knowledge, incentives, payback
time, the cost of oil and electricity and development of the grid.
Biotechnologies
Developments will include high-value niche products, further
development of biore /f_ining, more e fficient yeasts and bacteria,
combined plant with biotechnology, biomass CHP, nanotechnol –
ogy and energy. Uncertainties surround ‘traditional’ industry adapt –
ing to new feed-stocks and new production processes, competition
between food versus biofuels for land use, siting of infrastructure
near the source of raw materials and the price of oil as a  driver.
Nanotechnologies and green nanomaterials/novel materials
Increasing applications are being seen and more are expected,
although these are constrained by limitations on bulk manufac –
ture. Health implications are not well researched yet, and there is
no legislation speci /f_ically on nanomaterials. Exposure will grow
with increasing potential for OSH issues to arise.
Robotics and arti /f_icial intelligence
A move from industrial to service applications (agriculture, mili –
tary, medical) and then domestic applications over the period
to 2020 was discussed. Uncertainties were the availability of
appropriate standards and legislation, economic aspects and
the human-machine interface (e.g. how people interact safely
with free-roaming and autonomous robots).
Green transport technologies
The major issues are alternative fuels and an increasing role for IT
— /f_low control, congestion management, many-to-many freight
journey bids, interactive cars, driverless cars, driver aids. Other
factors are road pricing and ownership models.
Green manufacturing technologies
There is expected to be less mass manufacture but more mass cus –
tomisation, using adaptable processes, /f_lexible technologies and
an adaptable skills base with a  constant churning of skills. There
will be more smart goods, IT-enabled goods, pervasive comput –
ing and smart packaging. The human-machine interface will be
important. The e ffects of recycling legislation will see these costs
internalised in the price of goods.
Green construction technologies
There will be growth in prefabrication, the use of new materi –
als and new processes, varying across Europe. Retro /f_itting will be a  growth area, covering insulation, energy generation and
storage. Progress will be dependent on economic growth and
political incentives. The potential role of migrant workers was
mentioned.
Extractive technologies and environmental remediation
No clear view on developments in this area was expressed. Public
opinion will be important, as will economic aspects. Who will
undertake land /f_ill mining? How will it be controlled? Workforce
skills will be important.
Agriculture, forestry and food
Better yields of food will be needed. Increased introduction of
robot technologies will be seen, which can identify and discrimi –
nate between weeds and crops and use accurate targeting of
chemicals, thereby reducing use and exposure. There may be
public fears, leading to bioenergy/fuel and GM debates. Trace –
ability of produce will be important. There will be an increasing
role for big companies.
Waste management and recycling
Increasing activity is expected as raw material costs rise and exist –
ing plants work below capacity. Legislation is also a  driver. There
is expected to be more food waste collection, more incineration,
and more digesters. More items will be designed for recycling (i.e.
easier to dismantle). Manufacturers will have the responsibility to
recycle: there will be more closed-loop businesses. In addition,
waste disposal is turning into a  new branch of the energy sector.
Associated hazards include impure gas production, explosion
risks if the organisms used do not produce the gas intended,
dangerous substances, con /f_ined spaces and musculoskeletal
disorders (MSDs).
In the /f_inal session of the workshop, delegates were asked to
select their top technology (green vote) and seven others (red
votes) out of this list of 18. Each delegate had to vote for at least
two energy technologies and two non-energy technologies, and
could not cast more than one vote for any single technology.
The voting exercise was followed by a  plenary discussion, which
reviewed the outcome of the vote and considered the implica –
tions for Phase  3 of the project. The result of the voting exercise
was intended to inform the decision on which technologies to
take forward to Phase  3. It was not an election in the sense that
the top scoring technologies would automatically proceed. With
a relatively small number of participants, the green votes alone
would be unlikely to give statistically signi /f_icant results, but might
be useful in a  tiebreak situation. The /f_inal decision would be taken
by the project team and EU-OSHA, taking into account the voting,
the earlier interviews and Internet survey and the need to have
a useful range of technologies with the potential to trigger useful
discussions in Phase  3 and to provide adequate variation between
outcomes in the di fferent scenarios.

Phase 2: Key new technologies
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 47The results of the workshop vote and the outcome of the plenary
discussion at the workshop, together with data from the inter –
views and the Internet survey, are shown in Table  5.
Results of workshop voting
The 10 highest scoring technologies (total of green and red votes)
at the workshop were:
t
waste and recycling ……………………………………………………………….. 12
t
construction technologies ……………………………………………………. 11
t
nanotechnologies and nanomaterials ………………………………… 10
t
agriculture, forestry and food ………………………………………………. 9
t
transport technologies ………………………………………………………….. 9
t
biotechnologies ……………………………………………………………………… 8
t
manufacturing technologies ………………………………………………… 8
t
energy transmission ………………………………………………………………. 8
t
wind energy …………………………………………………………………………….. 7
t
bioenergy ………………………………………………………………………………… 7
In the /f_inal workshop discussion, the following points were made.
t
There was some surprise that energy topics did not feature
as prominently as had been expected. This could be a  conse –
quence of the way energy technologies had been considered
individually, whereas other areas had been treated as sectors
or technology groupings. Thus, the energy vote had been split.
t
The distinction between energy transmission (see Annex  6,
No. 12 for more details of the aspects it includes) and energy
storage (Annex  6, No.  13) was not helpful and these could
be merged. If this were done, then domestic and small-scale
applications of energy technologies (Annex  6, No.  16) should
be included also. Battery technology (Annex  6, No.  14) had
been introduced as a  separate topic because it was felt that it
was such an important topic, but it would, in any case, be part
of energy storage. Thus, a  combined energy topic comprising
Nos  12, 13, 14 and 16 was proposed. However, it was felt that
this combined topic would need a  longer workshop than for
the other technologies in Phase  3.
t
Construction technologies should focus on buildings, rather
than infrastructure in order to give greater emphasis to
energy e fficiency measures.
t
Robotics, automation and arti /f_icial intelligence, while not
a high scorer in its own right, could usefully be considered
alongside manufacturing technologies.
t
Wind energy and solar energy were judged to be of medium
priority. The low score obtained by solar energy was surprising.t
Carbon capture and storage, hydrogen and fuel cells, and
extractive technologies/environmental remediation obtained
low scores in the workshop vote, the interviews and the Inter –
net survey and were, therefore, not selected for Phase  3.
4.4. Selection of the key
technologies for Phase 3
The /f_inal selection of the key technologies for the Phase 3 work –
shops was made by the project team in consultation with EU-
OSHA. The following additional points were agreed.
t
Wind energy had failed to make the top eight in the work –
shop but ranked among the top nine (equal with bioenergy)
and had, in addition, been cited often as high priority in the
Phase  1 interviews and scored well in the Phase  2 interviews
and the Internet survey.
t
Bioenergy had not made the top eight in its own right, but
ranked among the top nine (equal with wind energy) and
could be merged with biotechnologies in a  single topic deal –
ing with energy applications of biotechnologies.
t
Nanotechnologies and nanomaterials scored highly at the
workshop, in the interviews and in the Internet survey. How –
ever, it was felt that such a  broad topic, featuring as it does
in many of the other technologies and technology areas, and
whose applications and OSH implications are already the sub –
ject of a  large body of research and conferences, would not
be well served in a  single workshop of the format planned for
Phase  3. In fact, it was felt it was such a  major and transversal
issue actually found in almost all other technologies/techno –
logical applications selected for the Phase  3 workshops, that
it should be addressed in each of these workshops in rela –
tion to the speci /f_ic sector and applications they will address.
Indeed, as mentioned previously, not having a  workshop on
a speci /f_ic technology does not mean that it is not an impor –
tant component of the future and of the scenarios produced
in this project.
t
Agriculture, forestry and food, although scoring highly at
the workshop, had hitherto attracted little interest. It would,
therefore, not be the focus of a  speci /f_ic workshop in Phase  3.
Thus, a  /f_inal list for the Phase  3 workshops was compiled:
t
waste and recycling technologies;
t
green construction technologies (buildings);
t
green transport technologies;
t
bioenergy and the energy applications of biotechnology;

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
48 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Workt
green manufacturing technologies and processes/robotics
and automation;
t
decentralised domestic and small-scale energy generation;
energy storage, including batteries; and energy transmission
and distribution (longer workshop);t
wind energy;
t
nanomaterials as a  horizontal issue to be considered in all
workshops.
Table 5: Results of the workshop votes, initial conclusions, interviews and Internet survey
Technology*First choice
workshop votes
(green votes)Other
workshop votes
(red votes)Workshop conclusions
on inclusion for
Phase  3 workshopsInterview
votesInternet
survey votes
(1) Wind energy (Industrial
scale)0 7 Undecided 2 6
(3) Solar photovoltaic
(Industrial scale)1 1 Undecided 0 0
(5) Bioenergy (Industrial scale) 3 4 Yes 0 0
(8) Carbon capture and
storage0 2 No 3 2
(12) Energy transmission 0 8 Yes (combine with 13,
14 and 16)0 2
(13) Energy storage and
recovery4 2 Yes (combine with 12,
14 and 16)0 0
(14) Battery technology 0 4 Yes (combine with 12,
13 and 16)1 0
(15) Hydrogen and fuel cells 0 4 No 0 1
(16) Domestic and small-scale
energy1 4 Yes (combine with 12,
13 and14); also linked
to construction2 1
(17) Biotechnologies 1 7 Yes 2 1
(20) Nanotechnologies and
nanomaterials2 8 Yes 7 8
(21) Robotics, automation and
arti/f_icial intelligence0 4 (Aspects to be
considered with 26)1 1
(25) Transport technologies 0 9 Yes 0 1
(26) Manufacturing
technologies1 7 Yes (to include aspects
of 21)0 0
(27) Construction technologies
(buildings)1 10 Yes 0 0
(28 and 32) Extractive
technologies; environmental
remediation0 3 No N/A N/A
(29) Agriculture, forestry and
food0 9 Yes 0 1
(30 and 31) Waste
management and recycling1 11 Yes 2 4
NB: * Numbers in brackets refer to the technology description in Annex  6.

5. Phase 3: Scenarios

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
50 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work5.1. Introduction to the three
scenarios
The following sections describe three scenarios for evaluating
the OSH implications of new and emerging technologies in the
context of the ‘changing world’, taking into account the scien –
ti/f_ic, societal and economic context. They have been developed
speci /f_ically to explore green jobs in Europe.
Each full scenario consists of a  base scenario (Section  5.3), supple –
mented with descriptions of how the nine technologies identi /f_ied
in Phase  2 might have developed within that scenario and what
are the OSH implications (Section  5.4).
During the construction of the scenarios, the year 2025 was con –
sidered rather than 2020 as in the project title, in order to stretch
thinking during the construction of the scenarios so that changes
happening after 2020, the early signs of which could emerge in
2020, would be considered.
5.2. Constructing the base
scenarios
The base scenarios were built on an analysis of the 16 key driv –
ers of future change identi /f_ied in Phase  1 as having the greatest
importance to shaping the future of green jobs in Europe. They
were developed in an iterative process as they were used and
tested in the Phase  3 workshops, and the feedback from these
workshops then served to re /f_ine the description of the base sce –
narios presented in Section  5.4.
5.2.1. Analysing the drivers of change
The /f_irst step in generating the base scenarios was to select the
scenario axes, which de /f_ine the framework for generating the
scenarios.
To select the axes, each of the 16 drivers was taken in turn and the
uncertainty inherent identi /f_ied within that driver over the period
to 2025. As an illustration, consider the driver of economic growth:
Economic growth — the state of European economies will
affect the availability of resources with which to tackle envi –
ronmental issues and to invest in new technologies
The pattern of economic growth over the time frame could vary
signi /f_icantly:
t
there could be steady economic growth across the EU;t
there could be wild swings of activity with economic booms
and busts; or
t
Europe could grow strongly whilst the rest of the world stag –
nated, or vice versa.
The possible variations are large, and the scenario-generation
process requires some simpli /f_ication. Here, it was assumed that
overall economic growth was more or less uniform across Europe,
and that economic growth elsewhere in the world followed the
same steady pattern as growth in Europe.
Under this simpli /f_ied assumption, the main uncertainty is now
whether overall economic growth (both in Europe and glob –
ally) would be high or low over that period (Table  6). These two
outcomes are given as two possible end points to the economic
growth driver.
We repeated this exercise and assigned two plausible ‘High’ and
‘Low’ outcomes for each of the 16 drivers.
5.2.2. Choosing scenario axes
On examination, 12 of the 16 drivers and associated outcomes
were seen to fall naturally into three broad clusters centred on
three themes;
t
economic growth;
t
green culture and energy e fficiency; and
t
innovation in green technology.
Each of the 12 drivers was therefore assigned two possible out –
comes consistent with the following ‘High’ and ‘Low’ state for
each cluster ( Table  7):
t
high economic growth, and low economic growth;
t
strong green values (Green), and weak green values (Brown);
and
t
fast innovation in green technologies (High-tech) and slow
innovation (Low-tech).
Each cluster was associated with a  single axis, the extremities of
which were de /f_ined by the ‘Low’ and ‘High’ states of the cluster.
These axes could then be combined to de /f_ine the base scenarios.
The other four drivers (nuclear energy, demographics, energy
security, and international issues) did not fall into these three
clusters but were later included in the scenarios by matching plau –
sible outcomes with the emerging scenario stories (Section  5.2.5 ).

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 51Table 6: Plausible high and low outcomes for economic growth in Europe
Low growth and sovereign
debt problemsEconomic growth — the state of European economies
will a ffect the availability of resources with which to tackle
environmental issues and to invest in new technologiesHigh growth
Table 7: Clusters of drivers, and associated LOW and HIGH outcomes
LOW outcome Driver HIGH outcome
Low growth Economic High growth
Low growth
(in Europe and globally)
sovereign debt problemsEconomic growth — the state of European economies
will a ffect the availability of resources with which to tackle
environmental issues and to invest in new technologiesHigh growth
(in Europe and globally)
‘Brown’
Weak green valuesGreen culture/energy e fficiency‘Green’
Strong green values
Indi fference to climate change:
seen as not man-made
Public does not support
energy-e fficient practicesPublic opinion — the public’s awareness and views on climate
change and the extent to which they believe human activity
is responsible, views on other environmental matters and
attitudes to riskPanic over climate change:
seen as man-made
Public supports energy-
efficient practices
Consumers do not demand
green productsConsumer behaviour — whether consumers demonstrate
their support for green activities through their demand for
green products, by their use of energy e fficiency measures,
changing their travelling patterns, supporting recycling
schemes, etc.Consumers demand green
products
Environmental degradation
No one caresEnvironment — carbon dioxide emissions and the physical
effects of climate change, including natural disasters and the
shortage of natural resources other than energy (e.g. water)
and the need to manage them better, which may drive public
opinion and in /f_luence government policiesEnvironmental recovery
Public concern (activism)
Laissez-faire
Ineffective, wasteful
interventionsGovernment incentives — having clear and stable energy
policies to encourage investment, promoting R  & D, and
offering grants, subsidies, loans, technical assistance and other
inducements to promote green activitiesEffective intervention
Stable e ffective policies
Low-carbon taxes
Lax pollution regulations and
emissions taxesGovernment controls — taxes, carbon pricing, removal of
subsidies and increased duties on fossil fuels, legislation and
other instruments to penalise polluting activitiesHigh-carbon taxes
Strict pollution regulations
and emissions taxes
Increasing energy use and
intensity
Waste of energyEnergy e fficiency improvements — the construction of
energy-e fficient buildings, the retro /f_itting of insulation in
older buildings and the promotion of public transport and less
energy-demanding manufacturingEfficiency measures
embraced
Declining energy
consumption
Insulation
No increase in recycling
activityGrowth in waste management and recycling — driven by
declining natural resources, environmental legislation and
public opinion, this sector is likely to continue to grow: this is
a dangerous sector in which to workMore and more recycling
Legislation
Less land /f_ill

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
52 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkLOW outcome Driver HIGH outcome
Low tech Innovation in green technology High tech
Little progress Renewable energy technologies — progress in the
development, and the availability, of renewable energy
technologiesSubstantial progress
No take-up
Lack of investment
Outside the EUOther technologies — technologies other than energy
technologies that may o ffer environmental advantages may
also bring health and safety risks (e.g. nanotechnologies,
biotechnologies, green chemistry, and sustainable
manufacturing)Investment
Development
Progress
within EU
Low levels of investment
Lack of storage
Little /f_lexibility to handle local
generationElectricity distribution, storage and use — the development
and availability of technology to cope with increased use
of electricity in buildings and vehicles, with distributed
generation and with the variability of output from renewable
sourcesTransformed intelligent grid
Energy storage
Local generation
CCS doesn’t work
Clean coal doesn’t workFossil fuel technologies — the development and availability
of technologies to allow continued use of fossil fuels within
carbon limitsCCS works
Clean coal works
5.2.3. Defining the scenario space
Economic growth and green values axes
After much debate, the two axes of Economic growth and Green
values were de /f_ined as starting points. Selecting ‘Low’ or ‘High’ values for each of these two axes generated four scenarios, shown
in Table  8 with their eventual names.
This combination gives a  classic ‘scenario cross’ layout with four
scenarios that can be plotted graphically (Figure  3).
Figure 3: Four scenarios plotted by Economic growth v  Green
values axes
SCENARIO 1
Strongly green
culture and valuesSCENARIO 2
Rapid innovation
in green technology
SCENARIO 4
No progress over
a lost decadeSCENARIO 3
Strong global
growthEconomic growthGreen values Weak Very strong
High growth Low growthTable 8: Summary of the base scenario de /f_initions
AxisScenarios
Win-Win Bonus
WorldDeep
GreenScenario
4
Economic
growthHigh High Low Low
Green
valuesStrong Weak Strong Weak

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 53Adding the green technology/innovation axis
In theory, each of the four boxes in Figure  3 would be associated
with two end points on the technology axis, giving eight scenarios
in all, but some of these combinations were not consistent. For
example, if the human race were both to achieve high economic
growth and live by strong green values, then a  step change in
the rate of innovation in green technologies would be needed.
Similarly, a  world of low growth and uncaring green values is
unlikely to be associated with a  lot of new green technologies.
Plotting possible combinations of the three axes on a  cube gave
four potential and coherent scenarios, shown as orange dots in
Figure  4. It was found that the Deep Green and Bonus World sce –
narios were more realistic if a  medium level of innovation was
assumed but, of course, the nature of that innovation would be
very di fferent in each world.
Figure 4: Three-dimensional view of scenario axes
Green
Low
growthLow High Innovation
Econo my High
growthGreen
Cultu re
Brown
These four potential scenarios were then considered jointly with
EU-OSHA to determine their respective value in assessing the new
and emerging risks to OSH associated with new technologies
in green jobs by 2020. Based on this, it was decided not to use
Scenario  4 (low growth, low green culture and low innovation),
as there would have been relatively few new and emerging risks
from new technologies in green jobs as a  result of low innova –
tion and low green values. The development of Scenario  4 was
therefore curtailed early in Phase  3 but, for completeness of the
project, an early draft development is described in Annex  12.
Additionally, it was discussed that the level of Green Innova –
tion was likely to be slightly higher in Deep Green than in Bonus
World. These levels were, therefore, speci /f_ied as ‘Medium  +’ and
‘Medium  −’ respectively. (Note that these descriptions are subjec –
tive assessments, and not quanti /f_ied measures.) This gave a  /f_inal
de/f_inition of the three remaining scenarios (Table  9).Table 9: Summary of remaining scenario de /f_initions
Axis Win-WinBonus
WorldDeep
Green
Economic growth High High Low
Green values Strong Weak Strong
Rate of innovation
in green
technologiesHigh Medium  − Medium  +
Figure  5 shows how, in three of the scenarios, the level of green
innovation is a  variable proportion of the total innovation. Overall,
levels of innovation in society are related to long-term economic
growth. Because each scenario is di fferent, not only the level but
also the focus of green innovation will be di fferent.
Figure 5: Green innovation shown as a  proportion of total
innovation
For
pro/f_itFor
green
growthFor
green
futureOther innovation
Green innovation
Bonus world Win-win Deep green
NB: This is a  purely diagrammatic representation.
5.2.4. Defining the Scenarios
At the end of this iterative process, the three axes, and the place
that each scenario occupies on each axis, were de /f_ined. This was
the starting point for creating the scenario storyline. But note
that in developing the scenario narrative, the simple de /f_initions
for each axis were in /f_luenced by the e ffects of interactions with
the other axes to create a  different story in each case.
Note again that the scenario narratives presented are not evi –
dence-based conclusions, but based on assumptions and their
possible consequences. Other stories are equally possible. In the
end, there is no right or wrong choice, since the future may con –
tain elements of each scenario. Scenarios are tools to generate
discussion and insight into di fferent elements of the future, rather
than predictions.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
54 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkEconomic growth
Economic growth includes the external impact of both global
growth and growth in Europe.
High growth
Europe and other OECD states return to an average real growth
rate of 3  % per year (OECD, 2012). India and China maintain their
growth of 8–10  % per year, while the rest of the world maintains
the high growth rates achieved in the /f_irst decade of the century
of around 6  % per year.
There are high and growing levels of overall consumption and
mobility. There are high levels of overall innovation (but not nec –
essarily ‘green’ innovation).
High levels of investment in infrastructure mean that any new
technologies are rolled out at a  high rate.
Low growth
Europe and other OECD countries achieve little or zero economic
growth in real terms. The BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and
China) su ffer a retrenchment after the boom years of 2000–10,
and revert to the more usual boom-bust cycles of emerging mar –
kets, averaging half their previous rates of growth at around 5  %
per year. The rest of the world manages growth that more or less
keeps pace with growing populations, so that incomes per capita
are static in real terms.
Low levels of investment in infrastructure mean that even the
technology that is available is not yet widely installed (e.g. in
buildings and energy networks). There are low levels of overall
innovation.
Unquali /f_ied workers cut back on spending and are more likely to
stay put. If their skills are in demand, they are more likely to seek
opportunities outside Europe.
Green values
Green values relate to attitudes, the willingness of people and
organisations to change their behaviour to achieve green out –
comes, and the willingness of governments to implement regula –
tory and /f_iscal policies to promote green activities.
Strong green values
Growing public panic over climate change and other environmen –
tal threats gives governments a  mandate to legislate for deeply
green measures. Green behaviour by corporations and individuals
is strongly approved of by the general population.
Advances in science and improved environmental models show
just how vulnerable the human race will be to climate change
and the loss of ecosystems services.Repeated resource shortages (e.g. food, commodities, minerals,
water, energy) drive home the Green message.
Weak green values
Environmental degradation is seen as an unavoidable result of
progress. Advances in science and improved environmental mod –
els show that climate change and the loss of ecosystems services
will not have major consequences in the next 50 years anyway.
Fossil fuel energy and other resources remain available at a  price
that encourages investment in new sources of supply.
Innovation in green technologies
The third axis is the rate of innovation in green technologies,
a measure of development and exploitation of green technolo –
gies that will deliver the following:
t
reduced resource use, especially of non-renewable resources;
t
less pollution; and
t
fewer environmental impacts.
This axis is in /f_luenced by both green values and economic growth,
so the interactions between them must be taken into account in
the scenario storylines. Because each scenario is di fferent, not only
the level, but also the focus of green innovation will be di fferent
and, later, will be adapted case by case.
High rate of innovation in green technologies
The trajectories of green technologies accelerate as more and
more young engineers and scientists qualify around the world,
and developments in every /f_ield are published and propagated
immediately.
Energy science continues to deliver, and the path to a  zero-carbon
future is now clear, even though the installed base is quite low
so far.
Moore’s Law continues at its previous rate, where the number of
components on an integrated circuit doubles every 18 months,
using ever-less energy and materials per unit of processing power.
Biosciences continue to develop at an increasing rate, and start to
deliver new green chemistries and processes, medical treatments,
improved crop yields, and other unimagined bene /f_its.
New buildings are smart, and energy grids have local generation
and storage capabilities.
Medium rate of innovation in green technologies
Science continues to deliver advances in green technologies but,
as always, it takes some time for new discoveries to be incorpo –
rated into new products and processes and yet more time for
them to be implemented worldwide.

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 55Energy sciences continue to deliver, but it is still not clear how or
whether a  zero-carbon future can be achieved without serious
compromises.
Improvements in integrated circuits continue, but at a  slower
rate than Moore’s Law. The number of components on an inte –
grated circuit now doubles every 3 years. Biosciences continue
to develop, and are starting to deliver new green chemistries
and processes, some medical treatments, improved crops, and
other bene /f_its, but the time taken from concept to roll-out is still
very long.
Some new buildings are smart, and energy grids are starting to
get local generation and storage capabilities.
Low rate of innovation in green technologies (used in Annex  12:
Scenario  4)
Green and other technology is taking longer and longer to deliver
on its promises.
In energy sciences, new battery and PV technologies are devel –
oped, but only by using ever-rarer minerals that are not available in the necessary volumes. CCS and clean coal are not yet proven,
and there are serious and growing doubts if they would ever work.
After several disasters, the nuclear power industry is in a  state of
retrenchment.
Improvements in integrated circuits continue, but at a  much
slower rate than Moore’s Law, as integrated circuits reach their
physical limits. Chip components are now doubling only every
5 years. Biosciences continue to produce new /f_indings and new
organisms, but many products from living systems are self-lim –
iting, in the same way that overuse of antibiotics provokes the
development of resistance.
5.2.5. Allocating the remaining drivers
The remaining four drivers were allocated to the three scenarios
in a similar manner. In an iterative process, we de /f_ined plausible
alternative outcomes for each driver, as shown in Table  10.
The most plausible outcome was then allocated to each scenario,
adjusting the outcome to best match the emerging scenario sto –
ryline ( Table  11).
Table 10: Outcomes of remaining drivers
Outcome A Other drivers not included in the scenario axes Outcome B
No new nuclear Nuclear energy — whether or not nuclear energy is regarded
as green, the extent of its availability will a ffect the creation of
green jobsBig nuclear programme
(With either traditional
designs, or new designs that
are inherently safer)
Static populations
(in Europe)Demographics and the workforce — increasing population
and changing lifestyles (e.g. increasing urbanisation) will
drive the need for energy and, therefore, the need for green
activities: ageing of the population may result in a  loss of skills
with a  resulting increase in riskHigh migration
Ready supplies of energy (at
a price)Energy security issues — the need for energy security and the
desire to reduce dependency on imported energy will drive
energy e fficiency and the growth of renewable energy sourcesConcern over supply
Incentives to diversify
Free trade International issues — globalisation and the extent to which
it grows or possibly recedes in the wake of the recession will
affect competition for scarce natural resources, driving the
need for green activitiesProtectionism

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
56 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkTable 11: Allocation of remaining drivers to scenarios
DRIVEROutcome in
Win-WinOutcome in
Bonus WorldOutcome in
Deep Green
Nuclear energy — whether or not nuclear
energy is regarded as green, the extent of its
availability will a ffect the creation of green jobsBig nuclear programme
started (with new
designs that are
inherently safer)Big nuclear programme
started (with traditional
designs)No new nuclear
Demographics and the workforce — increasing
population and changing lifestyles (e.g.
increasing urbanisation) will drive the need
for energy and therefore the need for green
activities: ageing of the population may result in
a loss of skills with a  resulting increase in riskStatic populations
(in Europe)High migration
(especially immigration
of poorly quali /f_ied
people into Europe)Medium migration
(especially ‘brain drain’
emigration out of
Europe)
Energy Security Issues — the need for energy
security and the desire to reduce dependency on
imported energy will drive energy e fficiency and
the growth of renewable energy sourcesConcern over supply
Incentives to diversifyReady supplies of
energy (but at high
prices re /f_lecting
competition for
resources)Concern over supply
Incentives to diversify
International issues — globalisation and the
extent to which it grows or possibly recedes in
the wake of the recession will a ffect competition
for scarce natural resources, driving the need for
green activitiesFree trade Free trade Protectionism

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 575.3. Base scenarios (6)
Summary of base scenarios
Win-Win
High economic growth  —
Strongly green values  — High
green innovation
Green growth is sustainable, by combining economic, social and
environmental goals. Green activities are seen as a  major con –
tribution to economic growth rather than simply as a  cost; and
technology has delivered on its promise to make green growth
affordable and achievable. A  high proportion of jobs are green
and they are valued for both their economic and green outcomes.
Bonus World
High economic growth  — Low
green values — Medium green
innovation
Despite claims of green principles, people have, in general, pre –
ferred the route of short-term material a ffluence when faced
with the cost of going green. Green jobs are in areas where they
achieve the required /f_inancial returns. Technology has helped
the world to be more e fficient in its use of resources, but this
efficiency has merely translated into increased levels of material
consumption. Carbon emissions and resource use are still rising.
Deep Green
Low economic growth  —
Strongly green values  — Medium
green innovation
Green production and consumption are valued by the public suf –
/f_iciently for governments to have an incentive to deliver them,
even at the cost of short-term economic growth. Green invest –
ment and green activities are seen as costs that must be borne,
and compromises in lifestyle are seen as necessary. A  high propor –
tion of jobs are green and the bene /f_its they produce are valued.
Technology is helping to deliver a  green future.
5.3.1. Win-Win (Base scenario)
High growth — Strongly
green values — High green
innovation
Green growth is sustainable. Green activities are seen as a  major
contribution to economic growth rather than as a  cost.
(6) Picture credits: Wikimedia Commons users: Kirk, Licence CC BY-SA 2.5; Állatka;
Ton1, Licence CC BY-SA 3.0.Description
Summary
Greenness is valued by people su fficiently for governments and
business to have an incentive to deliver it; and technology has
delivered on its promise to make green growth achievable. The
path to a  sustainable and low-carbon future is now clear.
High growth means that green investment is a ffordable and
is being made. This necessary investment includes: new green
infrastructure (buildings, energy systems, transport networks);
green production methods (sustainable sourcing, whole life cycle
design, low resource use, etc.); and green consumption patterns
(valuing low impact products and services).
High economic growth
People in Europe are now about 50  % richer in real terms than
they were in 2012. For 15  years, OECD states have enjoyed steady
economic growth equal to the average in the decade before the
2008 economic crisis (i.e. 2.8  % real growth per year) (OECD, 2012).
India and China have maintained historical growth rates (8–10  %
per year); other developing countries have maintained the high
growth rates achieved in the /f_irst decade of the century (of around
6 % per year).
Corporate pro /f_itability and access to /f_inance have supported
high levels of investment in infrastructure, so that much of the
present infrastructure has been renewed relatively recently or
is newly built.
New technologies are rapidly rolled-out and become widely avail –
able soon after they have been developed.
Strongly green values
People, in general, strongly approve of green behaviour by cor –
porations and by individuals.
Advances in climate science have shown just how vulnerable the
human race will be to climate change, and growing public con –
cerns have given governments a  mandate to legislate for deep
and progressive cuts in carbon emissions.
Similarly, improvements to environmental models have high –
lighted the cost of losing other ecosystems services ( /f_isheries,
soil, etc.), reinforcing wider environmental concerns. Repeated
concerns over resource shortages (e.g. food, commodities, miner –
als, water, energy) have driven home the Green message.
High innovation in green technologies
The trajectory of technology has accelerated as more and more
young engineers and scientists qualify around the world. Devel –
opments in every /f_ield are published rapidly and propagated in
minimal timescales.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
58 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkEnergy science has transformed energy e fficiency and carbon
footprints; and the path to a  zero-carbon future is now clear, even
though this has not yet been achieved.
Other drivers
Energy policy in Europe is driven by concerns over supply. As
part of the urge to diversify energy sources, renewable energy
systems are widespread and a  nuclear programme has been
started with new inherently safer designs, but no new reactors
are yet operating.
Global trade is very easy and free from restrictions.
The population is highly mobile, but total overall immigration
into Europe is roughly balanced by emigration out of Europe.
Implications
Development of new technology
In the Win-Win scenario, achieving both high economic growth
and green outcomes requires extensive and high-quality innova –
tion in green technologies.
Innovation is directed towards the profit motive, whilst still
achieving green outcomes.
Scienti /f_ic research and technological invention are driven mainly
by the prospect of making money, with the expectation that com –
mercial success will depend on o ffering green products and ser –
vices. New products are green by design because they would not
have a  market if they were not green.
Technological developments are adopted into new products and
services by companies who see a  new market for them. Greenness
and sustainability are designed into these from the start. Consum –
ers buy them because they o ffer new functions and opportunities
for consumption that they didn’t have before and deliver lower
costs and lower resource footprints.
Government support for innovation is driven by the promise of
new green jobs and environmentally sound sustainable economic
growth.
Implications for green jobs
There are many green jobs.
Governments assign a  high economic value to externalities (e.g.
pollution and carbon taxes, and by valuing ecosystem services),
which supports green jobs.
Companies actively seek out, and achieve, the economic bene /f_its
of waste-free processes. They calculate a  positive economic busi –
ness case for environmentally sound activities and Corporate Social
Responsibility (CSR). They apply project discount rates that give
a higher value to the long-term sustainability of the enterprise.The choices consumers make encourage green employment, and
governments have a  mandate to regulate in favour of green jobs
and even to subsidise them.
The greening of economies has introduced many new processes
and enterprises into what are now green jobs.
Implications for society and work
… of high economic growth:
t
high and growing levels of overall economic activity but with
increased e fficiency and reduced resource footprints;
t
high levels of employment and higher corporate pro /f_its pro –
vide the tax revenues that allow European governments to
address the increasing demands for welfare;
t
people feel prosperous; and
t
businesses focus on investment to generate future pro /f_its.
… of strongly green values:
t
people value the environment and nature;
t
green attitudes are likely to coincide with preferences for self-
reliance, holistic wellness and self-care; and
t
the greening of society introduces many new processes and
enterprises across the economic spectrum.
… of a  high rate of green innovation:
t
new jobs and new products are being introduced all the time,
at a rapid rate.
Implications for OSH
… of high economic growth:
t
as people are richer, cost-bene /f_it analysis will assign a  higher
economic value to the preservation of human life and of well-
being; and
t
the economy can a fford the investments needed to make
infrastructure and business processes safer and more
accessible.
… of strongly green values:
t
environmental hazards are seen by society as of particular
concern, especially if released into the general environment,
rather than contained in the place of use;
t
if preferences for self-reliance, holistic wellness and self-
care are translated to the OSH arena, the most effective

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 59OSH interventions may be self-regulation, education and
co operation; and
t
new processes and enterprises across the economic spec –
trum, introduced by the greening of society, all require new
OSH procedures and training.
… of a  high rate of green innovation:
t
the high pace of innovation is transforming the nature of
work and of working lives in many ways that have an equally
transformative e ffect on OSH;
t
extensive new skills are needed to develop, produce, install,
maintain and dispose of new innovations;
t
rapid roll-out of new technologies, new products, and the
new jobs linked to these, if not designed taking OSH into
consideration, mean that a  wider population may be exposed
to potential new hazards and risks in shorter timescales; OSH
assessments need to be done ever earlier in product develop –
ment cycles in order to catch issues before they have been
rolled out globally; there is an opportunity to improve OSH
by designing in safety from the start.
5.3.2. Bonus World
(Base scenario)
High growth — Weak green
values — Medium green inno –
vation (−)
Despite the green rhetoric, most people will prefer the route of short-
term material a ffluence when faced with the unavoidable cost of
going green.
Description
Summary
When faced with the costs, people do not value greenness suf –
/f_iciently for governments or business to have an incentive to
deliver it. People have always preferred economic growth, and
new technology has, in general, not delivered ways to achieve
growth in a  sustainable manner.
Technology has helped the world to be more e fficient in its use of
resources, but this e fficiency has merely translated into increased
consumption. Carbon emissions are still rising everywhere, as is
the use of resources.
Companies pursue profits. They undertake environmentally
sound activities and implement green processes only when eco –
nomically advantageous. Governments need corporate pro /f_its
and a  strong economy to deliver their social programmes.High economic growth
People in Europe are now (in 2025) about 50  % richer in real
terms than they were in 2012. For 15 years, OECD states have
enjoyed steady economic growth equal to the average in the
decade before the 2008 economic crisis (i.e. 2.8  % real growth per
year) (OECD, 2012). India and China have maintained historical
growth rates (8–10  % per year); other developing countries have
maintained the high growth rates achieved in the /f_irst decade of
the century (of around 6  % per year).
Corporate pro /f_itability and access to /f_inance have supported high
investment in infrastructure, so that much of the present infra –
structure has been renewed relatively recently or is newly built.
There is a  high level of investment in innovation and new tech –
nologies are rapidly rolled out and quickly become widespread.
Weak green values
Some environmental degradation is seen as less important than
economic growth and an unavoidable consequence of progress.
Fossil fuel energy and other resources have remained available
at prices high enough to have encouraged investment in new
sources of supply. The environmental consequences of increased
use of resources (minerals, food, energy, etc.) are seen as accept –
able and necessary.
Green measures and environmentally sound business practices
are still seen as desirable, but funds for green investment are
limited to those areas that show a  positive accounting return,
such as reduced resource use in industrial processes and better
insulation in new buildings.
Government support for green practices is limited to charging
for the visible externalities of production (e.g. noise, pollution,
land /f_ill, congestion).
Most consumers choose green products and services only if they
are better or cheaper than the alternatives.
Medium innovation in green technologies (directed towards
pro/f_its)
Science continues to deliver advances in technology that are
adopted into new products and processes. High levels of capi –
tal investment mean that capital-intensive technologies can be
rolled out quickly.
Energy sciences continue to deliver improvements in e fficiency
and low-carbon energy, but it is now clear that serious and unac –
ceptable compromises would be needed to achieve a  zero-carbon
future.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
60 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkOther drivers
Energy policy in Europe is driven by high energy prices and the
expected economic return from any investment. Large com –
mercial nuclear power programmes have started, using proven
designs, but no new reactors are yet operating.
Global trade is very easy and free from restrictions.
Migration is running at quite a  high level, with high overall levels
of immigration of poorly quali /f_ied people into Europe.
Implications
Development of new technologies
Innovation is directed towards the profit motive. Scientific
research and technological invention are driven mainly by the
prospect of making money.
Technological developments are adopted into new products and
services by companies who see a  pro/f_itable market for them. Con –
sumers buy them because they o ffer new functions and opportu –
nities for consumption that they didn’t have before.
Government support for innovation is driven by the promise of
new jobs and economic growth.
In Bonus World, there is a  high level of overall innovation, but this
is driven by a  pro/f_it motive, so the level of innovation in green
technologies is constrained.
Implications for green jobs
Governments have no mandate to regulate in favour of green
jobs, let alone to subsidise them. They impose relatively low
charges for proven externalities of production: and low charges
for land /f_ill and low-carbon taxes are seen as being appropriate
and proportionate. These undermine the economics of some
green jobs in recycling and alternative energy. However, this is
counterbalanced by high prices of raw materials and of energy
that support the economics of green jobs in recycling and in mak –
ing e fficient use of resources.
There are a  limited number of green jobs, but there is a  high vol –
ume of waste in Bonus World that needs to be dealt with. Green
jobs only exist where they are self- /f_inancing — where they are
economically pro /f_itable in their own right.
Green jobs cannot depend on consumers choosing products or
services just because they are green.
Implications for society and work
… of high economic growth:
t
high and growing levels of overall consumption and of travel;t
high levels of employment and higher corporate pro /f_its have
provided the tax revenues that allow European governments
to pay for sustainable welfare programmes;
t
most people feel prosperous; and
t
businesses focus on investing to generate future pro /f_its.
… of weak green values:
t
people value progress and economic well-being; the envi –
ronment and nature are important but less so than making
money.
… from a  medium rate of innovation:
t
new jobs and new products are being introduced at a  rela-
tively fast rate.
… from combinations of factors:
t
high inequalities mean that low-skilled workers (often immi –
grants) are readily exploited; and
t
human performance-enhancing drugs are being used in work
settings.
Implications for OSH
In a world based around the pro /f_it motive, employers will tend
to assess OSH in terms of its return on investment and impact
on pro /f_its.
Bonus World is less idealistic (less green) and more mindful of the
/f_inancial liabilities of OSH failures. OSH interventions are more
likely to be most e ffective through regulation (i.e. by raising the
cost to the company of unsafe working practices).
Implications for OSH
… of high economic growth:
t
the economy can a fford the investments needed to make
infrastructure and business processes safer and more acces –
sible; and
t
rapid roll-out of new technologies and new products means
that a  wide population is exposed to possible new hazards
and risks in short timescales; there will be increased potential
OSH risks and skills shortages associated with high rates of
change.
… of weak green values:
t
if weak green values are re /f_lected in less voter concern for
other people, OSH may be an area of relatively low priority
for governments.

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 61… of a  medium rate of green innovation (but high rate of global
innovation):
t
new jobs and new products linked to general high rate of inno –
vation may well bring new hazards and risks if not designed tak –
ing OSH into consideration: there is an opportunity to improve
OSH by designing in safety and health from the start; and
t
new technology and newer equipment may also be bene /f_icial
to OSH, in particular with regard to safety.
5.3.3. Deep Green
(Base scenario)
Low growth — Strong green
values — Medium green (+)
Sustainability and greenness are valued by people more than eco –
nomic growth.
Description
Summary
Greenness is valued by people su fficiently for governments to
have an incentive to deliver it, even at the cost of lower economic
growth. Green activities are seen as a  cost that must be borne.
Technology is helping to deliver a  green future.
Governments have introduced high taxes on pollution and car –
bon and other externalities that impact on corporate pro /f_its. They
have chosen to prioritise the limited available funds towards
green measures.
Overall, consumption is less than it would have been otherwise.
Low economic growth implies reduced use of resources and
reduces the growth of greenhouse gases and pollutants.
Funds for green investment are limited and green outcomes are
achieved more by changes in behaviour by corporations and indi –
viduals leading to a  reduced utilisation of resources.
Low economic growth
People in Europe are now only relatively as rich as they were in 2012.
OECD countries have achieved little or zero economic growth in real
terms, and many are still facing sovereign debt problems. The BRIC
countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) su ffered a  retrenchment
after the boom years of 2000–10, and reverted to the more usual
boom-bust cycles of emerging markets, averaging half their earlier
rates of growth (at around 5  % per year). Other developing countries
manage growth that more or less keeps pace with their growing
populations, so that incomes per capita are static in real terms.
Strongly green values
People, in general, strongly approve of green behaviour by cor –
porations and by other individuals.Advances in climate science have shown just how vulnerable the
human race will be to climate change. Growing public concerns
have given governments a  mandate to legislate for deep and
progressive cuts in carbon emissions.
Similarly, improvements to environmental models have high –
lighted the cost of losing other ecosystem services ( /f_isheries, soil,
etc.), reinforcing wider environmental concerns. Repeated con –
cerns over resource shortages (e.g. food, commodities, minerals,
water, energy) have driven home the Green message.
Medium innovation in green technologies (directed towards
Greenness)
Science continues to deliver advances in technology but restricted
levels of capital investment mean that capital intensive technolo –
gies can be slow to roll-out.
Energy sciences continue to deliver improvements in e fficiency
and low-carbon energy, but it is clear that serious compromises
will need to be made to achieve a  zero-carbon future.
Other drivers
Energy policy in Europe is driven by concerns over supply as fos –
sil fuel use is reduced, but the Green agenda means that no new
nuclear reactors have been built in Europe.
Global trade is suffering from tit-for-tat trade sanctions and
protectionism.
Migration is running at a  moderate level, especially ‘brain drain’
emigration out of Europe.
Implications
Development of new technologies
In Deep Green, the overall level of investment in all new technolo –
gies is constrained by low economic growth. Of what investment
there is, a  high proportion is directed towards green technologies.
Innovation is directed towards green outcomes. The desire is
still to make money but commercial success depends on having
appropriately green products and services. New products are
green by design because they would not have a  market if they
were not green.
Scienti /f_ic research and technological invention are mainly driven
by the prospect of saving money or resources; and of delivering
green outcomes that satisfy market demands.
Technological developments are adopted into products and ser –
vices by companies who see a  market for them. Consumers buy
them because they o ffer the same functionality at lower cost, or
have a  lower resource footprint. They also seek products with
extended working lives and scope for repair and refurbishment
during use.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
62 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkGovernment support for innovation is driven by the promise of
green jobs and a  sustainable economy.
Implications for green jobs
There are many green jobs. Consumers make choices that encour –
age green employment and governments have a  mandate to
regulate and to subsidise green jobs.
The greening of the economy and society has introduced many
new processes and enterprises into what are now green jobs.
Companies actively seek out, and achieve, the economic bene /f_its
of waste-free processes. They calculate a  positive economic busi –
ness case for environmentally sound activities and environmen –
tal aspects of CSR. They apply project discount rates that give
a higher value to the long-term sustainability of the enterprise.
Implications for society and work
… of low economic growth:
t
people are careful with their spending and are less inclined
to travel;
t
higher unemployment and lower corporate profits have
undermined the tax base that used to allow European gov –
ernments to pay for comprehensive welfare programmes;
t
people fear for their jobs; and
t
businesses focus on survival and reducing costs.
… of strong green values:
t
people value the environment and nature;
t
Green attitudes are likely to coincide with preferences for self-
reliance, holistic wellness and self-care;
t
the greening of the economy and society has introduced
many new processes and enterprises across the economic
spectrum; with the emphasis on reduced consumption of
energy and physical goods, most new jobs are in the service
sector.
… of a  medium rate of green innovation:
t
new jobs and new products are being steadily introduced.
Implications for OSH
… of low economic growth:
t
in a world of low growth, businesses may be tempted to cut
costs on OSH;t
lower growth limits the capacity to invest in new infrastruc –
ture and to make business processes safer and more acces –
sible; and
t
the slower roll-out of new technologies and new products
means that there is more time to assimilate new hazards and
new risks; but there may be less funding available for OSH
research.
… of strongly green values:
t
environmental hazards are seen by society as of particular
concern, especially if released into the general environment,
rather than contained in the place of use;
t
environmental issues tend to be given priority over OSH;
t
if preferences for self-reliance, holistic wellness and self-care
are translated to the OSH arena, the most e ffective OSH inter –
ventions may be self-regulation, education and cooperation;
and
t
new processes and enterprises across the economic spec –
trum, introduced by the greening of society, all require new
OSH procedures and training.
… of a medium rate of green innovation:
t
new jobs and new products may well bring new hazards and
risks if not designed taking OSH into consideration;
t
new skills will be needed to develop, produce, install, main –
tain and dispose of new green products and systems;
t
there is an opportunity to improve OSH by designing in safety
and health protection from the start; and
t
there are more di fficult, ‘dirty’ manual jobs (in repair, mainte –
nance, waste sorting, etc.) than in other scenarios with more
innovation and automation.
5.3.4. Social context of work in the base scenarios
Table  12 summarises how the social context of work may vary
between scenarios.
Note that these are general trends. These factors may vary widely
between industries, or even in di fferent sectors of the same indus –
try, and will vary in time as an industry or a  technology develops.
These factors were tested and re /f_ined as part of the workshops
in Phase  3.

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 63Table 12: Social context of work across the three scenarios
Factor Win-Win Bonus World Deep Green
Attitudes to risk
(blame culture
v responsibility)Greenness suggests a  greater
sense of corporate and personal
responsibilityBlame culture
The motivation for good OSH
practices is the risk of being sued or
prosecutedGreenness suggests a  greater
sense of corporate and personal
responsibility
Attitudes to risk/
OSH (employers)Caring for the environment
suggests caring for sta ff too, and
will /f_it with CSRPursuit of pro /f_it treats reducing
risks as a  costLow economic growth and high
unemployment suggests some
employers may be prepared to
cut corners
Attitudes to risk/
OSH (workers) Workers demand safe working:
a priority of unions is to improve
conditionsSkilled workers demand safe
working: a  priority of unions is to
improve conditions
Unskilled workers need jobs, even if
they are riskyWorkers need jobs, even if they
are risky: a  priority of unions is to
protect employment
Size of /f_irms
Structure of
companies
Industrial
structureLots of small start-ups, across the
economy, doing new things in
new green ways
Tendency towards global
business and marketsLots of small start-ups, across the
economy, doing new things in new
ways
Tendency towards global business
and markets
Non-green jobs could be ‘exported’
Businesses’ interest in making pro /f_it
could lead to worsened working
conditions for workersSmaller innovative start-ups
within green industries, and in
the greening of the rest of the
economy
Tendency towards localised
business
Migration High growth suggests high
mobility
Workers drawn to countries with
high growth
Total overall immigration into
Europe is roughly balanced by
emigration out of EuropeHigh growth suggests high mobility
Workers drawn to countries with
high growth
High levels of immigration of
poorly quali /f_ied people into EuropeLow growth suggests low
mobility and low levels of
migration; but prolonged
recession will stimulate out-
migration through a  wish to /f_ind
a better life elsewhere
Need for new
skillsNeed new skills to produce
new things and operate new
technologies and processes, in
green ways, across the economy
Potential exists for polarisation
between skilled and unskilled
workforceNew skills are needed to produce
new things and operate new
technologies and processes, across
the economy
Potential exists for polarisation
between skilled and unskilled
workforceNeed new skills to operate
new processes, within green
industries, and in green
activities in other industries, but
rate of innovation is slower than
in other scenarios
Structure of the
economyEver-increasing production
and consumption, but with
a reducing environmental
footprintEver-increasing production and
consumption, with growing
environmental footprintProduction and consumption
of services rather than making
and consuming more and more
physical goods
Labour market Growth suggests fuller
employment
Workers can /f_ind alternative jobs
more easily
Balance of power with the
workersGrowth suggests fuller
employment
Skilled workers can /f_ind alternative
jobs easily
Unskilled workers are exploitedLow growth suggests
unemployment
Balance of power lies with the
employers
Government and
regulationEducation, supported by funding,
plays an important role in the
enforcement of OSHEnforcement of OSH primarily
through regulationsEducation plays an important
role in enforcement of OSH
The Green agenda is seen by
governments as more important
than OSH

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
64 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work5.4. Exploration of new and
emerging OSH risks through
the scenarios — Validating
and extending the scenario
tool
Section  5.4 reports on the results of the seven technology work –
shops, each addressing one of the nine key technology areas
selected in Phase  2 (nanomaterials being addressed as a  hori –
zontal issue in all workshops). This Section covers both what was
said in each workshop and the conclusions that were drawn from
this discussion in post-workshop analysis.
The objective of the workshops was to develop the full scenarios
by looking at the development of the technologies and the OSH
implications in each base scenario. Each workshop lasted 2  half-
days except the workshop dedicated to decentralised domestic
and small-scale energy systems, batteries and energy storage, and
energy distribution and transmission, which /f_illed 2 entire days.
A full OSH assessment for each technology in each base scenario
in the time frame of a  single workshop was outside the scope of
the project: that would have required signi /f_icantly more time and
resources. However, important insights on possible future OSH
challenges were obtained. The workshops also demonstrated
the value of scenarios in promoting an OSH dialogue between
different groups of stakeholders.In each workshop, the programme included a  plenary session
to consider the development pathway for the focus technol –
ogy in the Win-Win base scenario and group work to consider
the same in the Bonus World and Deep Green base scenarios.
The groups assessed the most important OSH implications in
their scenario and then, together, did the same for Win-Win.
The workshops /f_inished with a  review of the implications for
OSH of the whole picture.
In post-workshop analysis, OSH implications identi /f_ied in the
workshop were compared with existing OSH source material
reviewed by HSL included in the OSH brie /f_ing for workshop par –
ticipants, to show where the scenario approach had led to new
insights into new and emerging risks, and to ensure that other
known issues not picked up in the workshops were included in
the mix.
In each workshop, there was a  mix of people with technology
and/or OSH backgrounds from relevant industries and trade
unions, national agencies and academics with expertise in each
area. They were joined by representatives of EU-OSHA and its
Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), as well as gov –
ernment representatives, various Directorates-General of the
European Commission and the International Labour Organisation
(ILO). Details of each workshop, including a  list of participants,
are given in Annex  8.
5.4.1. Wind energy
Comparison of technology developments across scenarios
Table 13: Technology developments: Wind energy
Technology developments Win-Win Bonus World Deep Green
Amount of wind power Extensive Limited, depending on the price
of energyLots of wind power but less
than Win-Win
Locations Deep water o ffshore, in
addition to traditional sitesOnshore, closer to cities
Planning rules relaxedMostly onshore
Less ambition and less
offshore pioneering than
Win-Win
Turbines Big turbines (up to 20  MW)
Specialised marine designsStandard turbine designs to
minimise cost per unit output
(5–7  MW)Smaller turbines (3–5  MW)
Grid connection Extensive interconnectors
Continental supergridDirect connections to areas of
greatest consumptionStorage bu ffers rather than
the supergrid
Existing wind farms Sites are repowered Decommissioning issues,
as uneconomic sites are
abandonedOld turbines kept going as
long as possible
Wind farm operators Continued government
subsidiesFirms can go bust
Consolidation of industry
participants and subcontracting
of maintenance and operationsContinued government
subsidies

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 65Wind energy in Win-Win
Technology and societal context
In Win-Win in 2025, continued political support and funding have
contributed to explosive growth in wind energy. There are many
wind farms in Europe. More and more installations are coming on
stream. O ffshore wind farms are being constructed in ever-deeper
water, with designs speci /f_ic to the marine environment.
Installed capacity in 2020 comfortably met the European Wind
Energy Association (EWEA) targets (dating from 2009) of 230  GW
wind power capacity (EWEA, 2012), including 40  GW o ffshore
wind. In 2025, the industry is now well on course to beat its 2009
target for 2030 of 400  GW of installed capacity in Europe, of which
150 GW will be located o ffshore, producing a  substantial propor –
tion of Europe’s electricity.Economies of scale have been realised on several dimensions.
Growing numbers of turbines have cut manufacturing costs: there
is now considerably more experience in construction and ever-
larger turbines have become possible.
Managing the /f_low of energy from these systems has been made
easier through a  continental-scale supergrid, with a  variety of
energy storage capabilities, and better localised wind forecasts
to predict power output levels.
In 2025, the very largest turbines now have 20  MW of capac –
ity. These have become possible through better manufacturing
techniques and new monitoring and control processes to ensure
safe operation. Most of these are destined for o ffshore sites, with
better foundations in shallower water, and /f_loating installations
allowing wind farms to be installed in much deeper locations.
Workshop discussion on OSH — Wind energy in Win-Win
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop ApplicabilityScope for new and
emerging risks
Deep-water o ffshore sites
Here, the main issues are the scale of operations and the distance from safe
haven. The situation is similar to the oil and gas industries, but with more widely
dispersed working sites and lower pro /f_it margins to pay for safety. Workers need
accommodation vessels and feeder boats. Mother vessels need facilities on board for
emergencies and methods for safely disembarking feeder vessels. Turbine worksites
need welfare facilities for the sta ff. Specialist vessels are required to handle such large
turbines in deep water, and there are still issues over foundation strategies (especially
as the seabed is di fferent for each turbine in a  wind farm), transport of foundations
from yards, and longer-term issues over removal of foundations. Greatest volumes
and deepest
waters in Win-WinNew challenging
wind farm
locations,
especially in
Win-Win
Availability of skilled manpower
New technologies will need people with skills, and long timescales are needed to
achieve competence. For a  university student to become a  quali /f_ied engineer, and
for them to gain relevant experience and training, will, typically, take 10 years. And
cross-border transfers bring risks around skills equivalence, varying attitudes to OSH
culture, and language di fficulties. The high economic growth and innovation of Win-
Win makes increased competition for skills particularly important for this scenario.Applies to all
scenarios, but
greatest in Win-
Win with the
fastest innovation
in green
industriesGrowing issue with
implications for
OSH
(Section  5.4.10
OSH factors
common across
technologies)
New access technologies (e.g. airships)
As o ffshore wind farms move to deeper water and more distant locations, operators
will still need to access them in an economically e fficient way. They will adopt
procedures and knowledge from o ffshore oil and gas industries (and specialised
personnel) and develop their own unique procedures, all of which will require
specialist OSH supervisions.Greatest numbers
and deepest
waters in Win-WinNew access routes
(e.g. helicopter or
airship platforms)
Better reliability
Over time, maintenance will get smarter with more reliable electronic devices. The
aim will be to minimise unpredicted maintenance.Especially Win-
Win and Bonus
WorldPositive for OSH
Size of turbines
The scale of the lifting operation needed to raise towers and turbines is a  signi /f_icant
hazard. Also, the higher the turbine, the more challenging it is to rescue workers
in case of emergency (e.g. /f_ire or medical). This is relevant to all scenarios, but the
biggest turbines feature in Win-Win, with its high level of government support for
wind energy and innovation.Biggest turbines
in Win-WinNew turbine
designs and
assembly
processes

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
66 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkWind energy in Bonus World
Technology and societal context
In Bonus World in 2025, high economic growth and resource scar –
city have pushed up energy prices to the point where the cheaper
forms of wind energy in favourable locations can generate elec –
tricity for a  cost that is comparable with other sources of supply.
In this scenario, there is no funding or green tari ff to support
the development of more expensive wind farms. Only the low –
est cost sites have been developed, as these are the only ones
to be economically viable, with su fficient pro /f_its to cover their
cost of capital.
These sites are nearly all onshore, and many are located nearer
to cities and other communities, which are the areas of highest
demand. Luckily for the wind energy industry, the low green val –
ues of Bonus World mean that planning rules and environmental impact assessments have been relaxed somewhat, which permits
more wind farm locations near habitation and in areas of out –
standing natural beauty.
Because of the need to be price competitive, designs of turbines
have focused on cost-e fficiency and low-cost maintenance. The
very largest turbines envisaged in 2012 were never built, and the
industry has e ffectively standardised on 5–7  MW turbines. Stand –
ard designs based on common platforms (like some models of
car) have helped to keep costs down, and innovative maintenance
regimes, such as new access methods, have been introduced —
again, to keep costs down.
In Bonus World, wind farms are owned by large companies, but
they tend to outsource maintenance to the lowest bidder.
In the early years of the decade, there was a  rush to develop wind
farms and install turbines before the deadlines were reached for
the reduction and withdrawal of subsidies.
Workshop discussion on OSH — Wind energy in Bonus World
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop ApplicabilityScope for new and
emerging risks
Government deadlines
The imperative to install and commission as many turbines as possible
ahead of government deadlines for subsidy withdrawal is likely to be
a big underlying driver of risk as it may be associated with OSH being
overlooked.Most immediate in Bonus
World, but applies to all
scenariosRelevant to OSH
policymaking
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common across
technologies)
Cost pressures
In this scenario, there is always the risk of cutting corners to save costs,
especially with regard to foundations, which are di fficult to inspect
after installation and may never be tested by extreme weather events. Bonus World Not new
Subcontracting of maintenance
Together with cost-cutting, this has led to increased risk-taking and
the use of migrant workers with low skills and a  poor safety culture.
There is a  passing of blame and no due diligence by the ultimate
owners. Applies most particularly
to Bonus WorldGrowing cost pressures as
subsidy regime moves to
price competition
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common across
technologies)
Standardised designs
These are likely to converge on the lowest cost option and may have
fewer health and safety features installed (e.g. lifts eliminating the
physical work associated with climbing up the tower), to save costs.
Standard designs will, however, have great bene /f_its in improved
familiarity and applicability of OSH lessons to other sites.All scenarios, but
especially Bonus WorldStandardisation is likely
to be positive overall for
OSH
Legacy issues
As subsidies for wind power are withdrawn in Bonus World, old wind
farms are not repowered as it would not be economic to do so. Design
action is needed now to enable eventual safe dismantling at end of life.All scenarios, but most
urgent in Bonus WorldDesign action needed
now to enable eventual
safe dismantling or
refurbishment
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common across
technologies)

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 67Workshop discussion on OSH — Wind energy in Bonus World
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop ApplicabilityScope for new and
emerging risks
Manufacturing risks
There is uncertainty over where the turbines would be manufactured.
Manufacturing within the EU brings all the associated OSH risks back
into the jurisdiction of EU Member States.Depends on supply chain
con/f_iguration, but local
manufacturing of wind
mills is most likely in Deep
GreenNot new, but may grow
in EU Member States,
as more turbines are
manufactured in Europe
Politics/funding
Targets need to be coordinated across Europe and reviewed after
a time to check that they are realistic and achievable. OSH depends on
funding and political support. OSH should be a  part of the licensing
programme, and should be a  factor in who wins the funding. Using the lever of
licensing conditions will
be much easier in Win-
Win and Deep Green with
their high subsidies than it
would be in Bonus World
with lower subsidies and
reduced pro /f_it marginsGrowing issue if subsidies
are reduced
Knowledge of new materials
New materials are increasingly being used for new applications.
They have the potential for major unexpected impacts on health
and environment. Understanding of the materials is required at all
stages of the product life cycle: production; construction; operation,
maintenance; prolonging operational life; decommissioning; and
disposal.
New composites will be used for the manufacture of wind turbine
blades and will eventually need to be disposed of. Nanomaterials are
being used in applications including anticorrosive and antifouling
coatings for o ffshore and onshore use. Maintenance access to o ffshore
wind turbines means that workers climb turbines and clamber onto
them from boats. Antifouling paints and similar materials on wind
turbines may, therefore, carry a  much higher risk of contact exposure
than for other applications such as oil platforms and ships´ hulls,
where there are other routes of access. Greatest use of new
materials and least care for
health and environment in
Bonus World, but applies
most in Win-Win with its
greater growth and fast
innovation in the wind
industryNew risks
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common across
technologies)
Novel access mechanisms
Novel access mechanisms such as helicopters are used to access the
turbines (especially o ffshore). Most relevant to the high
innovation scenarios
such as Bonus World and,
most especially, Win-Win
with its fast growth and
innovation in the wind
industryNew access routes (e.g.
helicopter or airship
platforms)
Ice throw
There are risks of ice throw, which could injure workers and the public,
especially where turbines are located near population centres. This is
a well-recognised risk.Relevant in all three
scenarios, but may a ffect
a larger population in
Bonus World due to the
proximity of wind farms to
population centresNot new, but a  new siting
policy in Bonus World
Metal theft
The risks to the workforce from the consequences of metal theft
could be a  big issue. Live cables left exposed are an obvious hazard
and thefts of cable could result in power cuts leading to safety risks
as industrial processes are interrupted. Theft could also damage the
(electrical) installations and result in risks to workers, in particular
maintenance workers. Theft of other metal items could similarly cause
safety risks.Greatest in Bonus World,
with high prices and pro /f_it
motives: risks occur in
many green jobsNot new, but a  growing
risk across many
technologies including
wind, batteries, domestic
energy, etc.
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common across
technologies)

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
68 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkWind energy in Deep Green
Technology and societal context
In Deep Green in 2025, the lack of capital constrains the develop –
ment of wind energy, despite the strong green values and political
support. The installed base of wind energy in Europe (110  GW) is
modest compared to Win-Win, but more extensive than in Bonus
World. Projects tend to be smaller, with in /f_ill developments. There
are cost hurdles to o ffshore developments, so that fewer of the
deeper o ffshore sites that had been envisaged in 2012 have been
built.
The usual turbine size is relatively small at 3–5  MW. The latest
designs have converged on direct drive generators and trans –
formers in the nacelle rather than the base.Rather than investing in a  full electrical supergrid to support
wind power, wind farms typically use storage bu ffers (e.g. nearby
upgraded hydroelectric schemes) to cope with fluctuations in
power.
Make-do-and-mend attitudes encourage owners to refurbish
older wind farms rather than rebuilding, though, in some places,
1 MW turbines have been replaced with 3  MW on the same towers
as the technology has improved.
The wind energy industry has been beset by corporate failures
and consolidation. The priority of the remaining big players is to
drive down costs and minimise the investment needed to deliver
wind energy.
With high unemployment, people are more likely to accept per –
sonal risks.
Workshop discussion on OSH — Wind energy in Deep Green
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop ApplicabilityScope for new and
emerging risks
Pressures to maintain equipment
The drive to maintain equipment, even in extreme weather conditions, could
expose maintenance workers to hostile and dangerous conditions.More extreme sites
in Win-Win; greater
cost pressures in
Deep Green and
Bonus WorldMay a ffect an
increasing number
of workers in the
sector
High voltages
With transformers in the nacelle, high-voltage electrical connections running
down the tower at typically 32  kV are a  clear risk to safety and require safe
systems of work using keys and tokens.All scenarios,
depending on
turbine designHazards from new
turbine designs
need full OSH
assessment
End-of-life issues
The OSH uncertainties revolve around the long term as wind farms reach the end
of their design life. Life-extension would require more maintenance, which is the
most dangerous activity. There has been very little experience of long-lasting
wind farms, especially as older farms have, in the past, usually been repowered
/f_irst. There will be a  need for inspection regimes including, for example, non-
destructive testing of the towers, to ensure the continued safe operation of old
wind farms. All scenarios, but
refurbishment most
likely in Deep GreenDesign action
needed now to
enable eventual
safe dismantling or
refurbishment
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
Physical risks
Climbing high towers always brings a  risk of falling as well as a  high physical load
on the body linked to musculoskeletal disorders. This might be an increasing
challenge to address as the workforce is ageing but needs to be kept at work
for longer with retiring age being postponed. It also makes recovery di fficult in
the event of emergency. The risks are made worse as features such as lifts have
become less common, due to cost pressures.All scenarios, but
more maintenance
activity and fewer
access technologies
to the wind tower
nacelle in Deep
GreenNot a  new issue, but
growing number
of installations and
workers involved

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 69Complementary information from desk research and Phase  2 technology workshop on OSH issues for wind energy
Workshop brie /f_ing on OSH issues
The brie /f_ing material for the wind energy workshop, based on desk research by HSL, as well as the discussions in the Phase  2 tech-
nology workshop (Section  4.3), highlighted the following OSH factors.
General
Diverse range of duty holders: the industry will involve many new entrants as the market expands rapidly. There is the potenti al for
gaps in knowledge and the availability of appropriate standards and guidance as OSH tries to keep up with developments.
Engineering unknowns: as novel designs appear, and ever more challenging locations are developed, construction, access, mainte –
nance, and life cycle issues may appear.
Anomalies in the regulatory regime resulting in inconsistencies across the energy sector: there may be issues surrounding the i nter –
faces across regulatory boundaries (e.g. licensing, OSH, environment). In the case of o ffshore wind, there could be major re gulatory
gaps outside territorial waters.
There could be technical issues surrounding the interface problems with infrastructure still to be resolved, with regard to the trans –
mission network, for example.
Competency and skills: if target levels of new installations are reached, there are likely to be massive shortages of skilled p ersonnel
(industry and regulators). New and inexperienced workers could be at risk.
Access issues, with boats and helicopter, especially in bad weather: evacuation from tower platforms in the event of /f_ire.
Psychosocial risks from isolated working, especially o ffshore.
Chemical and biological
Exposure to chemicals and dust could occur, for example:
t
during the manufacture of turbine blades — (epoxy) resins, styrene, solvents;
t
while sanding components (e.g. when maintaining installations); and
t
during decommissioning and recycling.
In addition, there is evidence of the growth of microorganisms in the nacelles.
Construction and maintenance related
Building of wind turbines is complex. O ffshore wind arrays are the world’s largest construction projects, up to 200  km o ffshore. They
have major infrastructure needs: subsea cables, ports, substations and accommodation platforms.
Risks include:
t
structural failure, such as blade throw if blades fracture, or tower collapse; risks to workers and the public if near buildings;
t
working at height;
t
working over water, risks from jack-up barge stability; diving risks;
t
electrocution during installation, maintenance; connection to the transmission network;
t
heavy lifts — dropped or swung loads — crane, derrick and hoist safety;
t
risks during eventual decommissioning; and
t
working in con /f_ined spaces, as when undertaking maintenance, for example.
Source: UK Health and Safety Laboratory Futures Team and additional sources (HSE, 2010b; RenewableUK, 2010; O’Neill, 2009; Seifert et al., 2003; Bradbrook et al., 2010).

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
70 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkOSH discussion for wind energy
Working on wind turbines is potentially dangerous at the best of
times, and the widely distributed nature of the work means that
the monitoring and enforcement of safe working practices are
difficult for both operators and regulators.
The risks are multiplied manyfold in o ffshore wind farms, which
have the potential to become highly dangerous worksites. It will
be necessary to closely monitor processes for installing and main –
taining ever-larger turbines in deep-water o ffshore wind farms.
The potential for OSH risks will continue to grow whatever the
subsidy regime. If generous subsidies continue, ever-larger tur –
bines will be installed in ever-greater depths of water, ever further
from safe haven. If subsidies are reduced, then price competi –
tion will bring pressures to cut corners. Deadlines to qualify for
subsidies will bring urgency to installation work that will bring
unnecessary and avoidable risks.
Developments in the following areas of new technology should
be monitored.
t
New turbine designs may bring new risks (electrical or
ergonomic).
t
New materials and coatings may be an issue. New composites
will be used for the manufacture of wind turbine blades and will
eventually need to be disposed of. O ffshore wind turbines need
maintenance access, so workers climb the towers and clamber
onto them from boats. The risk of contact exposure to antifoul –
ing paints and other materials on wind turbines may, therefore,
be much higher than for other o ffshore applications like oil plat –
forms and ships´ hulls, where there are other routes for access.t
There may be possible new access mechanisms, such as heli –
copters and airships.
The following areas of growing risks should be reviewed.
t
Physical security is an issue, especially if continued high metal
prices increase the risks of theft, which may damage the struc –
ture and put the safety of the installation in question.
t
Ice throw from turbines may put workers at risk in the wind
farm grounds or in the surroundings  (7), especially if planning
regulations allow installations closer to human habitation; ice
throw is also an issue for the general population.
t
Though not likely to lead to major hazards in the 2020 time
frame, turbines designed today should have provision for
safe disposal at end of life. They should also allow for major
maintenance and exchange processes in case governments
in the future require wind turbines to be refurbished and life-
extended instead of simply being demolished.
Note on limitations of OSH analysis
This is a  futures-based view of this technology. The issues consid –
ered above were based on a  single day’s workshop with experts
in technology and/or OSH expertise as well as policymakers, with
the HSL desk research as brie /f_ing. The intention was to illustrate
the power of the scenario method to broaden the discussion and
generate insights. This is not intended to be a  comprehensive
list of OSH issues.
5.4.2. Green construction
Comparison of technology developments across scenarios
(7) According to some accident reports, ice throw has been reported up to 140  m
(Caithness Windfarm Information Forum, 2012).Table 14: Technology developments: Construction
Technology
developmentsWin-Win Bonus World Deep Green
Energy focus High energy e fficiency (innovative
PV and insulation)
Retro /f_it of public buildings
Extending underground for thermal
massHigh insulation (at optimum
economic e fficiency with high
energy prices)Monitoring and control of
household behaviours
Heating and ventilation Low air circulation Air conditioning Low air circulation
Exposure risks Exposure to novel materials Exposure to new materials
through demolition processesExposure from retro /f_itting
and recycling
Building waste Recycled Land /f_ill Recycled
Government regulation High standards Relaxed planning Mandatory retro /f_itting
for energy e fficiency (at
owners’ expense)
Construction activity High levels of new build
Prefabricated modular buildings,
and automated construction
Hyperinsulating materialsHigh levels of new build (with
grandiose but well-insulated
designs)
Hyperinsulating materialsLittle new build
Lots of retro /f_it of energy-
saving measures

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 71Construction in Win-Win
Technology and societal context
In Win-Win in 2025, new buildings are zero-carbon, designed
with heat stores, and built to at least Passivhaus standards (Pas –
sive House Institute, 2012) with comprehensive instrumentation
and monitoring. Provision for electric cars (for recharging and as
energy stores) is part of building design, and roofs include built-
in PV (BIPV). Energy consumption of new buildings has reached
very low levels.
The aim is to have buildings free from hazardous chemicals: /f_in-
ishes with ever-lower levels of formaldehyde and other volatile
organic compounds (VOCs) are now necessary with the reduced
levels of ventilation that are now standard.
Retro /f_itting of the building stock is common. Public buildings are
being retro /f_itted to high energy and resource standards, tend –
ing towards a  zero carbon footprint. Energy usage is controlled by re-engineering building structures and external insulation,
enabled by advances in spray foam insulation.
Hyperinsulating materials (e.g. aerogels and nano-lattice struc –
tures) have been developed, and are in common use in new builds
and retro /f_its.
Modular prefabricated buildings have become mainstream in
new builds, with modules already /f_itted with heating, ventilation,
and air conditioning (HVAC) and other services. There is less waste
and super-insulation is cheaper. Automation (originally in new
building assembly, and now in maintenance and retro /f_itting) has
moved workers away from many hazardous activities.
Every part is designed to be disassembled and recycled. Recycled
materials are used in new construction.
Buildings interact among themselves and with the smart grid.
Workshop discussion on OSH — Construction in Win-Win
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop ApplicabilityScope for new and
emerging risks
Highly skilled workforce
New demanding high-level technologies will need a  highly skilled workforce,
well trained in OSH procedures for the new processes. With competition for
skills between technologies, there is an increasing shortage of skilled workers.
Unskilled, poorly trained workers are more at risk, including for work-related
stress. Is there a  need for incentives for companies to train sta ff?High overall
innovation in Bonus
World, but Win-Win
has the greatest
innovation and
most skills needs
within green jobsGrowing issue with
implications for OSH
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common across
technologies)
Prefabrication of modular buildings and automation
Prefabrication can lead to a  signi /f_icant reduction in risks (particularly on site).
Automation will be applied /f_irst to the prefabrication of modules in factories,
but it will soon migrate to the building site itself.
Installing prefabricated modules does, however, mean handling large loads on
site, with all the associated risks, and does not eliminate all on-site work such as
the preparation of foundations and provision of services to the site. Issues will
arise when mixing automated and traditional manual activities on construction
sites. New accidents will occur due to these innovative techniques, but will
tail o ff as people get used to them and the work processes become better
coordinated. There are theoretical risks (electrocution, gas, drowning, etc.)
during connection of services but, with correct design, these should be minimal.Most likely in Win-
Win and Bonus
World with the
highest pace of
changeVery positive for OSH
as exposure to risks
on site is reduced,
but new risks could
emerge in the factory
New energy sources (PV, geothermal, biomass) bring new hazards and
unexpected accidents. PV leads to risks of electrocution, burns, working at
height, and may incorporate new chemical exposure risks. Geothermal energy
hazards include: exposure to emissions, such as sulphur, from activities such
as trenching; excavation; welding and cutting; falls; steam/hot water from
boreholes.Greatest in Win-Win
and Deep GreenGrowing exposure

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
72 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkConstruction in Bonus World
Technology and societal context
In Bonus World in 2025, there are new construction materials (e.g.
hyperinsulation) and new building technologies. There is a  high
turnover of building stock, with ostentatious designs common.
Most new houses are prefabricated modular designs. Modules
come already /f_itted with HVAC and other services. Automation
(originally in new building assembly, and now in maintenance and
retro /f_itting) has removed workers from many hazards.
Bonus World has high energy prices and, as the most cost-e ffec-
tive energy saving measure, very high levels of insulation have
become the norm. Uninsulated houses are di fficult to sell. As
PV has now become economically viable without subsidy, new
buildings have built-in PV (BIPV) to produce energy, and PV tiles
(incorporating new PV technologies) are being retro /f_itted to older
buildings.Bonus World is an uncaring world, with its focus on the pro /f_it
motive and cutting costs:
t
subcontracting, used to drive down costs, leads to pressure
on subcontractors to cut corners;
t
cities sprawl and planning restrictions are less onerous;
t
buildings (and products) are not designed for recycling;
t
building waste goes to land /f_ill;
t
contaminated waste is exported, or is mixed with clean waste
streams.
There are many home o ffices. Global warming, an ageing popu –
lation, and increased teleworking lead to increased complexity
in climate control systems in residential buildings (e.g. more air
conditioning).Workshop discussion on OSH — Construction in Win-Win
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop ApplicabilityScope for new and
emerging risks
Underground construction/congestion
In densely populated cities, many homes will be extended downwards into
and beyond basements, for living space and thermal storage. This brings risk
of collapse including during (underground) construction, through instability
of structure or ground, and risks from drilling into gas pockets or existing
underground services. There are speci /f_ic OSH implications due to underground
working in con /f_ined spaces (including MSDs and toxic gases).Win-Win and Bonus
World Not new, but growing
in these scenarios
Building energy nodes
Buildings will become integrated into smart grids, mainly by retro /f_itting. This
brings complexity and combinations of risks (e.g. leakages close to electric
storage systems). Innovative storage technologies (e.g. thermochemical e ffects)
may lead to new risks in manufacturing, installation and maintenance. With
combined risks, OSH will need to be considered in designs even more. Workers
will need training in the hazards, in particular in installation and maintenance,
as these are where the workers involved may have a  lower OSH awareness.Mostly Win-Win Growing issue as smart
grids develop
Novel materials
Potential hazards used in construction or surface coatings at the installation
stage include nanomaterials, aerogels, water treatment agents, plastic/concrete
combinations, phase-change materials, /f_ibrous composites, active surfaces, heat
storage chemicals, novel surface coatings, and prefabricated structures. All of
these will need careful assessment for OSH risks before introduction, including
provision for maintenance activity and eventual safe disposal.Greatest exposure in
Bonus World, with
its lower investment
in occupational
health (research)New chemicals with
unknown (long-
latency) health hazards
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common across
technologies)

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 73Workshop discussion on OSH — Construction in Bonus World
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop ApplicabilityScope for new and
emerging risks
Prefabrication of modular buildings
Prefabrication can lead to a  signi /f_icant reduction in risks. Installing
prefabricated modules does, however, mean handling large loads on
site, with all the associated risks, and does not eliminate on-site works
such as the preparation of foundations and provision of services to
the site. Issues will arise when mixing automated and traditional
manual activities on construction sites. There are theoretical risks
(electrocution, gas, drowning, etc.) during connection of services, but
with correct design these should be negligible.Most likely in Win-Win
and Bonus World with
the highest pace of
change Very positive for OSH as
exposure to risks on site
is reduced, but new risks
could emerge in the factory
New demanding high-level technologies
New technologies will need a  well-trained workforce.Bonus World and
Win-WinHigh
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common across
technologies)
Retro /f_itting of insulation
This leads to exposure to dust and dangerous substances such as
lead and asbestos. The lack of adequate ventilation may be an issue,
in particular as this type of work may attract construction workers
used to outdoor work and not aware of the need of proper indoor
ventilation.Greatest exposure
in Deep Green, with
its emphasis on
refurbishment and
make-do-and-mend
philosophy
(also see Section  5.4.7
Domestic and small-scale
energy systems)Not new, but potential for
growing exposure
New construction materials
New construction materials such as phase-changing materials,
hyperinsulation, nanomaterials, give rise to new exposure risks to
dangerous substances.Greatest exposure in
Bonus World, with
its lower concern for
occupational health and
with high innovationNew chemicals with
unknown (long-latency)
health hazards
New risks continually
emerging
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common across
technologies)
Demolition of recent buildings
Demolition will also lead to exposure to new materials (e.g.
nanomaterials and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)).Greatest exposure in
Bonus World with high
turnover rateExposure to new chemicals
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common across
technologies)
Polarisation within the construction industry
More polarisation is expected, with well-run large /f_irms, and poor
SME subcontractors, with OSH issues over migrant workers and self-
employed workers at the end of the subcontractor chain.Greatest in Bonus World Not new, but growing
scope in Bonus World
Work-related stress
Work-related stress and impacts on mental health issues seem
likely in Bonus World from living with employment uncertainty and
intensi /f_ication of work.Greatest in Bonus World Potentially growing issue
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common across
technologies)

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
74 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkConstruction in Deep Green
Technology and societal context
In Deep Green in 2025, the regulation and control of household
behaviour is invasive, backed up by pervasive ICT. This monitors
and enforces home temperature limits and ensures that some
appliances run only at night. Householders are being forced to
retro /f_it homes to new standards (with some subsidies, but mostly
at their own expense). In addition to regulation, there is social
pressure on householders to be green.Retro /f_itting is common. There is less new building in total, but
what there is, is deeply green.
There is widespread use of intelligent networks and ICT to opti –
mise conditions.
With changes of legislation, a  high percentage of materials in
new building is recycled.
Workshop discussion on OSH — Construction in Deep Green
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Refurbishment
The introduction of novel materials into existing buildings will bring risks of
accidents from unfamiliar procedures and unexpected properties of the material,
and may also bring exposure to chemical risks. Refurbishment will also bring
exposure to familiar hazardous materials such as asbestos, lead and dust.
The extended lifetime of products, buildings and infrastructures may mean
emerging risks for workers linked to: dealing with product maintenance; using
(old) products with extended life; recycling and reuse; and waste management
(including exposure to unknown materials).
There is scope to research and develop new approaches to reusing existing
buildings and infrastructure, to reduce the risks and hazards associated with
refurbishment, and the opportunity to create greener and healthier living spaces
and o ffices.Greatest exposure
in Deep Green with
high refurbishment
rateExposure to new
chemicals
Air circulation
Low energy use entails low settings on air circulation and air extraction. There is
a risk of build-up of VOCs, stale air, and sick building syndrome as green building
means minimal fresh air. Most relevant in
Deep Green and
Win-WinIncreasing problem,
especially in o ffice
buildings as well
as houses and,
therefore, a  growing
OSH risk to home-
based workers
Retro /f_itting renewables
Retro /f_itting existing buildings for a  low energy green world brings a  host of
occupational hazards. Roof work involves risks of falls; installing insulation brings
exposure to dust and hazardous chemicals. The lack of adequate ventilation may
be an issue, in particular as this type of work may attract unskilled workers not
aware of the need of proper indoor ventilation. There are always electrical risks,
made worse by the do-it-yourself mentality of the Deep Green Scenario.Greatest exposure in
Deep Green
(Also see
Section  5.4.7
Domestic and
small-scale energy
systems)Not new, but
potential for
growing exposure
Waste handling
Demolition and the separation of waste for recycling leads to MSDs, physical
risks and chemical hazards. Hazardous construction materials need to be
properly labelled to allow adequate waste treatment and minimise workers’
exposure to dangerous substances. When buildings are demolished, all
construction waste is mixed together and it is, therefore, challenging to
recognise and separate construction material containing hazardous material
from the rest.All scenarios, but
mainly Bonus World
with high turnover
of building stock and
less environmental
concern regarding
material and waste
labellingHigh

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 75Complementary information from desk research and Phase  2 technology workshop on OSH issues for green construction
Workshop brie /f_ing on OSH issues
The brie /f_ing material for the construction workshop, based on desk research by HSL, as well as the discussions in the Phase  2 tech –
nology workshop (Section  4.3), highlighted the following OSH factors.
Risks
t
A range of physical hazards  — in particular, the combination of known risks in new situations, such as installation of renewable
energy equipment at heights, electric shock or electrocution from the installation of new technology such as feed-in to smart
grids. There is a  risk of /f_ire from fuel cells or battery storage systems.
t
Exposure to hazardous materials used for insulation. For example, aerogel insulation blankets are made mostly of synthetic
amorphous silica embedded in a  fabric blanket and the handling of these blankets will produce dust, exposure to which can
cause irritation to eyes, skin and respiratory tract.
t
Risk of exposure to dangerous substances (e.g. asbestos, lead, dust) during retro /f_itting activities.
t
Use of nanomaterials and new materials and potential risks from dangerous substances used in new construction materials (e.g.
when polishing or grinding nano-containing bricks/paints), including in maintenance and demolition activities.
t
OSH conditions worsening as OSH is not visible enough or emphasised in ‘green building’ (e.g. ‘green building’ certi /f_ication).
Bene /f_its
t
Off-site construction has the potential to reduce accidents on site, although lifting prefabricated sections or modules may be
hazardous. Moving work o ff-site into the factory could cause additional risks there to replace on-site risks.
t
Robotics and automation can improve safety through developing and deploying machines for dangerous jobs, such as excava –
tion and construction in hazardous environments, although there may be new risks from increasing use of robots.
t
The use of Radio Frequency Identi /f_ication Tags (RFIDs) in construction workers’ shoes can help avoid collisions with moving plan t.
Source: UK Health and Safety Laboratory Futures Team and additional sources (RI Committee on Occupational Safety and Health, 2009; Kan th, 2010; Schulte and Heidel,
2009; Taylor, 2009).
OSH discussion for green construction
Construction makes up a  signi /f_icant proportion of all CO2 emis –
sions (e.g. in the United Kingdom, 47  % of emissions are estimated
to result from the manufacture, distribution, building, occupation,
refurbishment and demolition of buildings), so any reduction in
emissions from the building/occupation life cycle has the poten –
tial to make a  signi /f_icant impact on overall emissions.
Impact on the building stock can be made either through energy-
efficient new build or retro /f_itting existing buildings. Given the
relatively slow rate at which the building stock is replaced, ret –
ro/f_itting is likely to be signi /f_icant for years to come, in any of the
scenarios, but is greatest in Deep Green where new build is at
its lowest.The increasing use of off-site building techniques will, while
reducing the use and wastage of materials, also o ffer health and
safety bene /f_its.
Speci /f_ic examples of OSH issues include the following.
t
Off-site and modular construction moves many elements
of construction into a  factory environment where work is
more controlled. This reduces the amount of time workers
spend on site and so limits the risk of site-based accidents
and ill-health, although there will be new challenges on site
(e.g. increased transport and lifting of large components).
But o ff-site construction could transfer some risks into the
factory (e.g. handling of large components and exposure to
new materials such as composites).

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
76 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Workt
Increasing use of robotics and automation could improve
safety during manufacturing and construction, but the
human-machine interface needs to be monitored in the light
of increasing /f_lexibility and autonomy of robots.
t
There is a  risk associated with exposure to new materials and
substances in construction — including composites, pheno –
lics and nanomaterials (e.g. aerogels).
t
Retro /f_itting of insulating materials and small-scale renewable
energy devices could expose workers to a  range of dust and
hazardous materials, including asbestos.
t
Retro /f_itting could increase the incidence of existing hazards
(e.g. falls from height, slips, MSDs) but, in some cases, in new
situations (e.g. retro /f_itting of renewable energy systems on
house roofs by relatively inexperienced workers), these could
expose workers to electrical risks also. If retro /f_itting becomes
mandatory, there could be substandard work by unquali /f_ied
tradesmen trying to o ffer low-cost installations.
A signi /f_icant shift towards o ff-site and modular building will mean
that traditional construction activities will start to be replaced by
what is essentially manufacturing. This will require di fferent skills
and there may be signi /f_icant training needs as existing construc –
tion workers adapt to the change, especially if an ageing workforce /f_inds the change to be challenging. At the same time, automation
in construction could be an opportunity for the increasing ageing
workforce who may be more vulnerable to the repetitive manual
handling of (heavy) loads in traditional construction activities.
However, it should be monitored to ensure that the OSH bene /f_its
from o ff-site construction are not countered by a  corresponding
rise in risks in the factory setting, either because new substances
are used or because existing activities that were previously carried
out in the open air are now undertaken indoors.
The risks linked to many new players entering the sector alongside
the introduction of novel energy systems should be considered.
Note on limitations of OSH analysis
This is a  futures-based view of this technology. The issues consid –
ered above were based on a  single day’s workshop with experts
in technology and/or OSH expertise as well as policymakers, with
the HSL desk research as brie /f_ing. The intention was to illustrate
the power of the scenario method to broaden the discussion and
generate insights. This is not intended to be a  comprehensive
list of OSH issues.
5.4.3. Bioenergy and energy aspects of biotechnology
Comparison of technology developments across scenarios
Table 15: Technology developments: Bioenergy
Technology developments Win-Win Bonus World Deep Green
Production Biomass production across EUHigh volumes of diverse
biomass waste streams to
mine for their energy contentLocal supplies preferred
Waste recycling and energy
recovery
Energy utilisationCombined Heat and Power
(CHP) to extract maximum
energySmall local CHPReduced consumption of
energy
BiogasWidespread, fed into the
national gas supplyMethane digesters and
pyrolysisWidespread, fed into the local
gas supply
Biofuels Second and third generationSecond and third generation
through advanced genetically
modi /f_ied organisms (GMOs)Energy intensive biomass
Volume of bioenergy use High Medium Medium
Biofuel de /f_initions
First-generation biofuels are based on starches and sugars, and other food crops, which are fermented to produce alcohols.
Second-generation biofuels use other bacteria to produce usable fuels from cellulose, lignin, and other non-food agricultural w aste.
Third-generation biofuels is a  term used loosely to describe the use of genetically modi /f_ied algae or bacteria to produce enhanced
volumes of biofuels from non-food agricultural waste, or directly photosynthesised from sunlight.

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 77Bioenergy in Win-Win
Technology and societal context
In Win-Win in 2025, biomass is grown across the EU. Legisla –
tion supports the maximum extraction of energy from biomass
sources, including its heat content. The objective becomes a  zero-
waste economy.
Rural biomass is shipped to cities after torrefaction (heat treat –
ment to dry the material and increase its energy density) so that
the heat can be used in CHP systems. Garden material is used for
heating homes and all the energy embedded in municipal waste
and from manufacturing processes is recovered.Biogas production has developed so that 20  % of gas in the mains
is now biogas. Most agricultural waste is biodigested anaerobi –
cally to product methane. Waste water is used for its nutrient
content to fertilise biogas production.
Biomass power generation uses a  mixture of very large (400  MW)
and e fficient small-scale CHP plants in towns where the heat can
be used. Some existing coal- /f_ired plants have been converted to
run on biogas. Where these plants have also been enabled for
CCS, they now run with negative carbon emissions.
Second-generation biofuels, produced e fficiently with genetically
modi /f_ied bacteria, are common in transport, and third-generation
fuels have been developed.
Workshop discussion on OSH — Bioenergy in Win-Win
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Biohazards
There may be unknown biohazards from biotechnology, especially from new
third-generation biofuel organisms operating at room temperature. Most important in
Win-Win and Bonus
WorldNew
Agricultural handling and storage risks
There are new and emerging ‘agricultural risks’ as agriculture turns to bioproducts.
Work in forestry is likely to intensify.All scenarios, but
especially Win-Win
and Deep GreenNot new, but
growing in
importance
Third-generation biofuels
Algal fuels may give rise to new hazards: new organisms, fuel compounds, and the
by-products of production.Most important in
Win-Win and Bonus
WorldHigh
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
Zero-waste economy
The zero-waste economy entails dealing with the most di fficult tail end of the
waste stream (e.g. a  completely closed cycle means bringing wood ashes back to
the forest, but these contain heavy metals).
Such wastes in concentrated form are hazards that need special handling before it
is spread out and diluted to safe levels. Even wood ash is strongly alkaline.Most applicable to
Win-WinRapidly increasing
risk of diminishing
ecological return
Bioenergy processing
Risks exist from the operation and maintenance of bioenergy technologies.
Temperatures can range up to 370  °C, pressures up to 5  bar.
Chemicals can pose exposure risks. Digesters give rise to methane risks of
explosion and su ffocation.
With smaller recycling and bioenergy plants, the associated hazards are diverse
and distributed, and, therefore, more di fficult to monitor and regulate.Most applicable to
Deep Green and
Win-WinNot new, but
growing in
importance

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
78 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkBioenergy in Bonus World
Technology and societal context
In Bonus World in 2025, second-generation biofuels (liquid fuels
and chemical feedstocks from lignin and cellulose) have become
common, aided by rapid innovations in genetic modi /f_ication and
synthetic biology.
Techniques from advanced medical biotechnology have been
applied to bioenergy. Even without green incentives, this technol –
ogy has become available to develop life forms that produce third-
generation biofuels, though their widespread adoption has been
dependent in this world on continuing high oil and energy prices.
This world focuses on energy-e fficient technologies and resource
efficiency, with a  whole life cycle approach. Biomass sources  —
forestry and agriculture, and agricultural waste — get used through the most cost-e fficient route. There is plenty of biomass
waste to harvest for its energy potential, and it is incinerated
where necessary or pro /f_itable to do so, and is left in the /f_ield (or
goes to land /f_ill) where not.
Coal, natural gas and oil power stations persist, supplemented by
lots of small-scale biofuels and biomass CHP generating plants.
Methane digesters and pyrolysis are used to generate biogas. In
this world, there are many energy-containing waste streams to
harvest and exploit, usually in lots of small, localised CHP systems.
There are plenty of jobs in producing and harvesting biomass for
energy and chemical feedstock.
The biomass industry separates into big agribusinesses with many
small subcontractors.
Workshop discussion on OSH — Bioenergy in Bonus World
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Storage and handling of biomass
Storage and handling of biomass products is not risk free. There are physical
risks in handling, storage and harvesting, and exposure risks from leakage,
chemical and biological emissions from the decay process, and moulds, which
vary with the biomass type. These are mitigated by automation.All scenarios Not new, but
growing in
importance
Work design
Good design of work processes and machinery is needed to minimise
ergonomic risk factors and associated risks. Indoor air quality and ventilation are
important when processing biomass, given the likelihood of airborne irritants.All scenarios, but
especially Deep Green,
with its low-tech, less
automated approach Not new, but
growing in
importance
Intensi /f_ication of work
With small subcontractors under price pressure, work is likely to intensify.Greatest in Bonus
WorldPotentially growing
issue
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
Risks from waste
Waste streams can contain toxic chemicals, heavy metals, biohazards, vermin
infestations, and radioactivity (e.g. caesium in ash). These are not new, but will
increase in a  bioenergy-based economy.All scenarios, but
especially in Deep
Green Not new, but
growing in
importance
Nature of third-generation biofuels
Questions arise over the safety of the main fuel product (e.g. ethanol,
biopropanol, and biodiesel) and any by-products (e.g. methanol) and
contaminants that may be generated in the production process. Most important in Win-
Win and Bonus WorldHigh and new
Behaviour of new organisms/synthetic biology
These could pose unknown biohazards, especially third-generation biofuel
organisms operating at room temperature.Most important in Win-
Win and Bonus WorldNew
Biomass boilers
Even with automatic handling of biomass, there are hazards associated with
biomass boilers. There are respiratory hazards from smoke and dust, requiring
boilers to be closed and the area to have proper ventilation. Exposure to dust
may also put maintenance workers at risk. In addition, (wood) ash is strongly
alkaline, with associated dermal hazards when maintaining and cleaning the
boiler. There may be other risks during maintenance and cleaning.Applicable to all
scenariosNot new, but
increasing use

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 79Bioenergy in Deep Green
Technology and societal context
Deep Green is characterised by an industrial paradigm shift
towards symbiosis: ‘Your waste is my resource’. This leads to
big changes in ways of sourcing energy and managing waste.
Local waste is recycled or, at least, its energy content is recovered
locally.
Energy conservation reduces demand for energy, but biomass
production has increased, with consequences for both spatial
planning and land use.
Local procurement becomes important with local biogas from
land /f_ill, and local community biodiesel. The focus is on local installations in small towns and rural areas and there is plenty of
labour in this scenario to collect energy crops. There is rising use
of biofuels and biodiesel. Animal fats and food waste are used
as heavy fuel oils.
There has been little spillover from high-value biotechnology,
but green biotech is still cutting costs and increasing the energy
intensity of bioenergy crops. Non-food energy crops become
viable in Europe and production rises.
In 2025, there is a  very diversified energy system. There are
some big biomass power stations, for economies of scale, and
small plants for heat in district and community heating systems.
Existing coal- /f_ired electricity plants are being retro /f_itted to burn
biomass.
Workshop discussion on OSH — Bioenergy in Deep Green
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Unpleasant working conditions
Unpleasant working conditions result from handling biomass (even with
better ventilation and personal protection equipment).All scenarios Not new, but growing
in importance
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
Respiratory problems
Respiratory problems resulting from exposure to dust during cleaning and
internal operations of biofuel boilers etc.Especially in Deep
Green, with its low-
tech, less automated
approachNot new
Diverse risks
Diverse risks exist that are di fficult to monitor and regulate from
decentralised installations, including micro-CHP and biogas, with risks of
leaks and explosion.All scenarios, but
greatest in Win-Win
and possibly Deep
GreenGrowing issue
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
Long-term health implications
There are uncertain OSH impacts from the use of biofuels and new biomass,
because of exposure to dangerous substances and/or biohazards.Greatest in Deep
GreenNot new
Biohazards
Biohazards linked to work with new bacteria developed in bioengineering.Most important in
Win-Win and Bonus
WorldNew
Biomass storage
Biomass storage brings risks from high temperatures, /f_ire, explosions, and
exposure to biohazards.All scenarios, but most
applicable to Deep
GreenNot new, but
increasing occurrence
Risk from handling biomass
Asphyxiation in con /f_ined spaces or exposure to carbon monoxide and
aldehydes when feedstocks are imported to docks, transported and stored.
Respiratory allergies may result from handling degraded biomass fuel.
Risks also exist of exposure to VOCs, dusts, moulds and endotoxins during
handling/storage.All scenarios, but most
applicable to Deep
GreenNot new, but
increasing occurrence

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
80 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkComplementary information from desk research and Phase  2 technology workshop on OSH issues for bioenergy
Workshop brie /f_ing on OSH issues
The brie /f_ing material for the bioenergy workshop, based on desk research by HSL, as well as the discussions in the Phase  2 technol –
ogy workshop (Section  4.3), highlighted the following OSH factors:
t
storing dry biomass presents a  /f_ire risk;
t
small biomass particle sizes, particularly after size reduction prior to combustion or pyrolysis/gasi /f_ication, when dispersed i n air
can give rise to a  risk of explosion;
t
biomass material may not store well and may produce hazardous VOCs, dusts, moulds and endotoxins, which can be a  risk to health;
t
there is a  risk of biomass self-heating, due to microbiological processes, which can also be a  /f_ire risk;
t
biomass processes can involve the production or use of /f_lammable gases and liquids being handled at high temperatures and,
sometimes, moderate pressures: other gases that can be produced, such as CO2 and CO, have the potential to harm health;
t
there is increased collection and distribution of biomass;
t
collection of biomass material from woodland involves forestry occupations, which have a  high injury and fatal accident rate;
t
increasing numbers of new entrants come into the bioenergy sector, particularly from the waste and agriculture sectors and
other sectors producing organic waste: many will be SMEs and they may lack expertise in constructing and operating biomass
equipment;
t
the variable quality of biofuels (e.g. methane from biomass) may produce hazards if injected into the gas grid.
Source: UK Health and Safety Laboratory Futures Team and additional sources (HSE, 2010b; Bradbrook et al., 2010; Christiansen et al., 2009; Bradbrook, 2009a; Nicol
et al., 2011).
OSH discussion for bioenergy
The volume of biofuel production and use could be scenario-depend –
ent, with varying degrees of emphasis on local production and use:
for example, biofuel production is higher in Deep Green. Third-gen –
eration (algal) biofuels are likely to become of increasing importance
as the technology develops and is introduced closer to 2020.
OSH organisations may need to consider the following hazards.
Major hazards
Risks from biogas, biodiesel and bioethanol production include:
t
explosion and /f_ire risk from large-scale biofuel production;
t
/f_ire and explosion caused by electrical equipment sparking
in an explosive atmosphere, such as one /f_illed with methane;
t
pressure vessel explosion;t
impact on gas network pipelines from biogas or syngas not
meeting the required gas speci /f_ication; and
t
the potential for large-scale accidents caused by the ‘dom –
ino e ffect’, where a  minor initial incident can lead to a  cata –
strophic situation.
Risks from biomass used in co- /f_iring with coal include:
t
large-scale stores of biomass feedstock can self-heat and
combust spontaneously;
t
exposure to dusts, moulds, endotoxins and VOCs;
t
the co-milling of coal and biomass can lead to explosion and
rapid, intense combustion;
t
worker exposure to acidic gases during removal (H2S, CO2 and
COS are typical gas impurities);
t
exposure to microorganisms and metal residues; and

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 81t
possible longer-term health risks from exposure to chemicals
in feedstock and those used in biofuel production and chemi –
cals from waste streams.
Smaller-scale occupational and workplace hazards
Hazards may be primarily due to the fact that bioenergy is being
used in a  more decentralised and innovative way, with a  large
number of small-scale projects within communities and schools.
Risks in biogas, biodiesel and bioethanol production include the
following:
t
risks of asphyxiation in con /f_ined spaces (e.g. anaerobic digesters);
t
exposure to chemicals and solvents, such as methanol used
in the production of fuel, and plant clean-up;
t
exposure to CO2 generated during the fermentation process
and volatile by-products from microbiological processes;
t
/f_ire, burn and explosion risk from the manufacture of bio –
fuels; and
t
operational risks associated with the scaling-up of third-
generation biofuel production from demonstration plant to
commercial scale.
Risks in biomass combustion include the following:
t
impaired functioning and, ultimately, asphyxiation as a  result
of inhalation of CO and aldehydes produced during storage
and transportation of feedstocks;
t
respiratory allergies resulting from degraded biomass feed –
stock; and
t
hazards common to importing, transporting and storage of
biomass feedstocks — exposure to VOCs, lack of oxygen in
con/f_ined spaces, exposure to dusts, moulds and endotoxins.
A risk common to both biofuel production and biomass combus –
tion is that new players, less familiar with the risks of handling
fuel, may be particularly at risk. Such new players may be farm –
ers producing low quantities, or companies starting to use their
own waste as an energy source, for example in the textile or food industry. There may also be problems with the quality of their
products and, therefore, safety issues.
Hazards common to major hazards and smaller-scale production
of biofuels and biomass combustion include the following:
t
increased collection of wood from woodlands (forestry activi –
ties have a  very high rate of injury and fatal accidents);
t
the high temperatures and, sometimes, high pressures used in
pyrolysis (350–550  °C) and gasi /f_ication (over 700  °C) — there is
also a  potential issue with the increased variability in the consti –
tution of gas derived from biomass compared with fossil fuels;
t
potential land-use planning issues from the use of biogas, for
example land /f_ill generators; and
t
increased collection, transport and use of large amounts of ani –
mal waste for energy production, giving rise to potential risks
of slips and trips, falls into slurries/manures, exposure to fumes,
microbiological exposure, methane explosions and /f_ires.
Note on limitations of OSH analysis
This is a  futures-based view of this technology. The issues consid –
ered above were based on a  single day’s workshop with experts
in technology and/or OSH expertise as well as policymakers, with
the HSL desk research as a  brie /f_ing. The intention was to illustrate
the power of the scenario method to broaden the discussion and
generate insights. This is not intended to be a  comprehensive list
of OSH issues.
5.4.4. Waste management and recycling
Comparison of technology developments across scenarios
De/f_inition of ‘waste’
In the workshop, usage of the word ‘waste’ varied. It was
sometimes used to mean only material that cannot be reused
or recycled. But, in some cases, ‘waste’ was being recycled,
so, strictly speaking, it was not waste at all, though of course
it did come out of a  waste stream. This report uses the terms
intractable waste and waste stream when necessary to distin –
guish between the two.
Table  16: Technology developments: Waste management and recycling
Technology developments Win-Win Bonus World Deep Green
Volumes of waste streams Low, through recycling Higher Low, through generating less
Waste stream handling Robots/automation Low-cost workers Local workers
Industrial symbiosis Widespread Only where pro /f_itable Widespread
Philosophy Recycle Don’t bother Reduce and reuse
Value capture High, through technology Throwaway society Low-tech recycling

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
82 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkWaste management and recycling in Win-Win
Technology and societal context
In Win-Win in 2025, recycling has become a  political necessity.
Regulations require the use of recycled materials rather than new
materials wherever possible and forbid the destruction of waste
at the end of its use. The aim of government disposal policy is
zero waste, and land /f_ill is greatly reduced.
A philosophy of industrial symbiosis (Your waste is my feedstock)
means that a  market is created for by-products that would oth –
erwise be treated as waste. Society adopts a  whole life cycle
(cradle to cradle) approach to production that minimises waste,
and punitively high gate fees for land /f_ill reinforce this message.
There is a  high level of knowledge in society about how to deal
with waste, and extended producer responsibility (e.g. in terms
of materials used) forces manufacturers to minimise the life cycle
costs of their activities.Building codes encourage new construction materials and
concretes from waste. New materials and products (e.g. plastic-
bamboo composites and high-pressure pressed plastics) are only
introduced if there is a  system available to treat them at the end
of the life cycle.
Techniques such as gasi /f_ication and pyrolysis are used to extract
energy from waste streams, and even aerobic composting is dis –
couraged because it dissipates embodied energy; it should be
replaced by anaerobic digestion.
All metals are recycled and rare earth elements are recovered from
devices at the end of their life. Automated sensing of waste items
improves to the point that robotic disassembly of discarded items
becomes common. By 2025, 70  % of industrial waste is recycled.
Businesses proactively seek out resources in waste streams and
earlier land /f_ill sites are widely mined to recover useful materials.
By 2025, the use of raw materials per unit of GDP is many times
lower than it was in 2012.
Workshop discussion on OSH — Waste and recycling in Win-Win
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Nanomaterial release
The release of new materials such as nanomaterials during mechanical operations
in waste treatment is possible. There is a  lack of knowledge of the health and
safety e ffects of these nanomaterials and how they change during the life cycle
(e.g.  graphene). OSH research is needed in this area, as it is on the whole area of
waste management. All scenarios, but
mainly Win-Win
and Bonus World,
with their higher
innovation ratesNew risks
continually
emerging
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
Certi /f_ication and standardisation
There is a  need for control mechanisms for the waste operator for the entire process
from accepting inputs, through processing and the production of (waste and non-
waste) by-products. These control mechanisms need to be both voluntarily audited
and legally enforced.
The system of certi /f_ication and audit should be reviewed and re-evaluated
periodically. And a  long-term study is required of the whole waste system including
waste management.More of an issue
in Bonus World
with its lower
environmental
valuesNot new
Labelling and identifying hazardous substances after use
There appears to be a  gap in the legislation concerning the traceability and marking
or labelling of hazardous substances after they have been used. The problem stems
from hazard labelling becoming lost. For example, some hazardous products have
warning notices on the outer packaging only. Under the current system, houses
being demolished have unlabelled and unknown materials in them. It is important
to have better mechanisms for workers to recognise dangerous substances and new
labelling standards such as special colours or RFID (Radio Frequency Identi /f_ication)
chips to help recycling workers to recognise hazardous materials. Better labelling
would help everybody to understand risks more easily. All scenarios, but
mainly Bonus
World with
high innovation
and less
environmental
concernHigh

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 83Workshop discussion on OSH — Waste and recycling in Win-Win
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Urban mining and recycling of industrial waste
Because more industrial waste has to be recycled in this scenario, more hazardous
waste will have to be treated. Depending on the nature of the waste, this can include
persistent organic pollutants (POPs), Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dioxins,
heavy metals, asbestos and nanomaterials. It is di fficult to determine the precise
content of hazardous substances in the waste, and the implementation of adequate
prevention measures as well as provision of OSH training of recycling workers is
made more di fficult due to lack of information.
In the short-term, new ways of detecting and sorting waste streams are needed so
that hazardous waste is handled correctly. It is important that recycled material is
not more hazardous than virgin material. In the longer term, better equipment is
needed for urban mining, including robots, and more OSH education all along the
value chain from design to recycling.All scenarios
on principle in
Win-Win and
Deep Green,
and through
economic returns
in Bonus WorldGrowing activity
and, therefore,
exposure
Robotic disassembly
The use of robots in waste processing and recycling would be highly bene /f_icial in
OSH terms as it means that workers will be less exposed to manual handling and
exposure to dangerous substances from waste. The technology would need to
be developed to ensure at least the same e fficiency as manual work in terms of
recognition and separation of waste.
There will still be risks from activities such as maintenance (until the longer-term
development of maintenance and self-cleaning robots). Win-Win and
Bonus WorldBene /f_icial to OSH
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
Waste management and recycling in Bonus World
Technology and societal context
Bonus World in 2025 is a  high-consumption world producing
lots of waste that could be avoided. It is a  throwaway society.
Products are not necessarily designed for recycling, and metals
are only recycled where valuable. There are lots of innovative new
products and, consequently, new waste problems.
Firms respond to incentives. Waste processing, where it happens,
is driven by the high prices of raw materials and the high cost of
space for land /f_ill. Industrial symbiosis (heat and waste reused
by others) is only used where pro /f_itable. Recycling is practised
only where it makes money, but all waste streams are seen as
a potential resource that could be sold to someone.Waste streams are separated, and the energy in dry waste is recov –
ered. Much waste is sorted automatically (but only where this
is cheaper than manual labour). High-value waste is recycled in
the EU; lower-value waste is exported. Everything else goes to
land /f_ill, where it is treated as a  future resource for mining and/
or a  biogas energy store. This includes incinerator ash, digester
residue, and hazardous wastes.
Households pay for waste disposal by volume, leading to the
installation of domestic compactors, incinerators and digesters,
all to save waste charges.
In construction, most demolition waste goes to land /f_ill (except
where it is cost-e ffective to use it in new construction). Previously
installed house insulation has become an intractable waste in itself.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
84 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkWorkshop discussion on OSH — Waste and recycling in Bonus World
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Rapid innovation
Rapid innovation leads to new materials and new processes with the increased risk
of not taking the time to integrate OSH into R  & D and design, or to gain expertise on
how to safely use them.
In this scenario, high levels of innovation involve new products that are not designed
for recycling, so adding to the risks faced by the workers who have to handle them in
the waste.Bonus World New products
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
Long-latency hazards
There is a  real risk of unrecognised long-latency hazards, such as carcinogens, from
new materials when at the waste treatment stage of their life cycle.Greatest use of
new materials
with less
investment in
research on
health hazards
on Bonus WorldNew risks
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
Throwaway society
In Bonus World, a  rich society with high economic growth becomes a  throwaway
society with high volumes of waste to deal with. The sheer volume of waste and the
number of jobs needed to deal with it increases exposure to OSH risks (e.g. chemical
exposure, MSDs, and accidents) if no adequate work organisation and prevention
measures are in place. The risk of leachate from land /f_ill is also increasing. Bonus World High
Complex world
Combined exposure to hazardous substances will become more common in an
increasingly complex world. The growing number of existing and used substances
and complex working processes, generating diverse by-products that are di fficult to
identify, leads to more a  complex exposure situation.Greatest in
Bonus WorldNew combinations
of hazards
Charges for disposal
High charges for disposal of waste in this scenario will lead to domestic action to cut
costs. Domestic digesters bring gas and explosion risks; compactors, the risk of crush
injury; incineration, issues over air quality and soot. These diverse sources will be
very di fficult to control. Homeworkers and workers in SMEs will be exposed to similar
hazards.All scenarios, but
with di ffering
motivations in
eachNot new, but
growing usage
May a ffect growing
numbers of
homeworkers and
workers in SMEs
Waste management and recycling in Deep Green
Technology and societal context
The deep green values of Deep Green, coupled with low eco –
nomic activity, longer product life cycles and products designed
for ease of repair and recycling mean that waste volumes are
much reduced and the waste is less hazardous. There are much
lower volumes of intractable waste, so the OSH risk is reduced.
Waste streams are dealt with locally. A  systems view is taken of
waste, with integrated waste systems, and integrated waste treat –
ment value chains. Industrial symbiosis is the prevailing philoso –
phy (Your waste is my input). Plastics, metals, and textiles are
recycled, with jobs in collecting, sorting and recycling waste. Laws mandate the full recirculation of nutrients and energy recovery,
and land /f_ill sites are mined for their resources.
In the longer term, biological waste streams are used to generate
biogas, and biomass, energy.
All biomass waste is used productively — but hazardous waste
still has to be incinerated (e.g. hospital waste and glass /f_ibres).
The reduced volumes of waste mean that, overall, there are fewer
green jobs in the waste sector. But there are still green jobs in
the waste sector, in engineering and design and testing, and in
working to prevent waste and waste issues. There are also green
jobs in such /f_ields as mining land /f_ill sites and recycling, as well
as in handling intractable waste.

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 85Workshop discussion on OSH — Waste and recycling in Deep Green
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the
workshopApplicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Systems
The main issue is the importance of the design of systems, not just
the design of products.All scenarios, but most lacking in
Bonus WorldHigh
Reducing volumes
With a  focus on the waste hierarchy, the quality of waste streams
has improved over time. But there is the inheritance of previous
waste still to be dealt with, and hazardous waste still has to be
handled and incinerated (hospital waste, glass /f_ibres, etc.). With
much lower volumes, the OSH risk is reduced.Deep Green Positive for OSH
Land /f_ill mining
There is a  trend to recover materials from previously dumped waste
— there is a  great need for information on what these materials may
contain. Land /f_ill mining could be very messy and hazardous.All scenarios on principle in Win-
Win and Deep Green, and through
economic returns in Bonus WorldGrowing activity
and, therefore,
exposure
Construction jobs
In construction, there will be high volumes of recycled construction
materials, and risks from retrieving electrical cables and metals on
site. All scenarios
Greatest in Win-Win, with its
combination of high growth and
green practices, but also high in
Bonus World with high turnover
rate of building stock and high
metal prices
Most construction waste in Deep
Green is from retro /f_itting and
refurbishmentGrowing risks
Small companies separating and sorting their own waste
With small companies (e.g. in construction) processing their own
waste, there are greater OSH risks because of a  lower level of
awareness of those risks, fewer resources to dedicate to OSH risk
management and worker training, etc.All scenarios, but greatest in Deep
GreenGrowing risks
Biomass
Greater use of biomass in this scenario brings greater risk of
exposure to dust, allergens, moulds and other toxins, as does more
composting of organic waste streams. Especially Deep Green Not new, but
growing in
importance
Greenery creates waste problems
Green values and green activities create their own waste problems.
Reused materials may be of variable quality and be contaminated.
New light composite materials to reduce energy use may not
be recyclable and, therefore, add to the volume of waste to be
incinerated or sent to land /f_ill. Biomass brings its own biohazards
such as moulds and respiratory issues.Win-Win and Deep Green New products and
materials
Dealing with the dirtiest waste streams
Dealing with the dirtiest waste streams brings OSH issues as
people process the most di fficult tail end of the waste stream in
concentrated form.Win-Win and Deep Green Growing risk in
these scenarios

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
86 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkComplementary information from desk research and Phase  2 technology workshop on OSH issues for waste and recycling
Workshop brie /f_ing on OSH issues
The brie /f_ing material for the waste and recycling workshop, based on desk research by HSL, as well as the discussions in the Phase  2
technology workshop (Section  4.3), highlighted the following OSH factors:
t
increased collection and separation of organic waste in Europe, such as food and nappies, which may lead to increased exposure
to bacteria and fungi as well as sensitising agents;
t
risks from novel waste treatments, which are under development, such as the separation of brominated /f_ire retardants from
waste electrical equipment;
t
risks from novel energy-generating processes, which are under development, such as arc plasma power;
t
health risks from chemical exposure in ‘downstream’ processes for recycling batteries, /f_luorescent lighting, cathode ray tubes
(e.g. mercury exposure or /f_ire risks);
t
exposure to nanomaterials and other novel materials in waste;
t
the impact of increasing segregation of waste, which could lead to greater concentration of potentially harmful materials;
t
the increasing economic value of extracting precious or potentially rare earth metals from waste electronic material (especiall y
after the implementation of WEEE recycling regulations) means increased levels of recycling in Europe and increased risk of
chemical exposure: for example, there are plans to open up land /f_ill to extract valuable materials in Belgium;
t
potential chemical exposure from recycling of devices that have previously been sent to land /f_ill, such as LCD TVs, lithium-ion
batteries and low-energy light bulbs;
t
high risk of human-large vehicle collisions during collection or on-site handling of waste or recyclable material;
t
MSDs — for example from repetitive manual handling (of heavy loads), carpal tunnel syndrome, injuries from collection and sort –
ing/picking activities, or hearing damage from very noisy recycling activities (e.g. from equipment use or recycling of glass); and
t
handling of construction waste: volumes may change as e fforts to reduce construction waste are implemented.
Another key issue is the nature of the waste-handling workforce. Work in the recycling and waste management sector may require only
low levels of skills and be poorly paid and so be likely to employ migrant workers. Migrant language and literacy barriers coul d lead
to communication problems and, along with di ffering attitudes to health and safety, could lead to increased risk in the sector. With
society ageing, older workers will naturally be present in this sector, as in most others. Some jobs in the waste and recycling sector will
be physically demanding, and this will exert a  greater physical toll on the older worker. Additionally, in some roles in this sector, there
will be exposure to dust, microbiological agents and chemicals, and little is known about the e ffect of this exposure on ageing workers.
Source: UK Health and Safety Laboratory Futures Team and additional sources (Schulte and Heidel, 2009; HSE, 2007; HSE, 2009b; O’Neill, 2009; Brentnall, 2006).
OSH discussion for waste and recycling
The volumes of waste and the way it is handled may be scenario-
dependent. Issues that OSH organisations need to be aware of
include the following.
t
The increasing diversity and growth of the recycling and
waste management sector will increase in the hazards and
risks in the sector. There are many examples of expansion in
the recycling of plastics, paper, glass, aggregates and other
materials for the construction industry.t
Waste management and the recycling of older waste could
lead to worker exposure to unknown hazardous substances
because of poor traceability . Land /f_ill mining may be particu –
larly hazardous in this respect. There may also be a  /f_ire and
explosion risk from methane generated from the breakdown
of biological material underground in the land /f_ill area being
mined.
t
There will potentially be risks from workplace exposure to
new materials , including nanomaterials, in new products,
but they may be better documented and controlled. How –
ever, increasing segregation of waste could lead to greater
concentrations of hazardous materials.

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 87t
The increasing use of automation for waste sorting and han –
dling has the potential to reduce risks to workers. As products
are increasingly designed with eventual dismantling and recy –
cling in mind, risks to workers may reduce.
t
Well-known risks from waste and recycling will continue to
be signi /f_icant and will grow, along with the corresponding
increase and diversity of the sector. These risks include, for
example, risks of being run over by a  large vehicle, physical
injuries, MSDs from handling waste products and risks from
the interaction with large-scale processing equipment such as
balers, boilers, crushers, chippers, compactors and shredders.
t
Other well-known risks that will increase along with the
expansion of the sector include exposure to biohazards (e.g.
when handling putrescible waste, sorting textiles or disman –
tling cars and exposure to toxic materials such as mercury
and lead (e.g. while breaking up items such as computers
and televisions).
t
Due to the increasing worldwide shortage of raw materials
and the rising cost of energy, there will be a  large expansion
in the recovery of metals, polymers and glass . This may lead
to a  corresponding increase in workplace exposure to the
chemical processes used in these recovery processes.
t
A signi /f_icant number of new companies are entering the
waste management sector as well as existing waste manage –
ment companies diversifying into other areas of the sector
(e.g. waste metal processing companies are expanding into
the recycling of end-of-life vehicles and lithium-ion battery
recycling plants have started to appear).
t
The impact of increasing segregation of waste could lead
to a  greater concentration of potentially harmful microbes,
chemicals and dust (e.g. the increasing separation of food
waste in Europe will lead to more collection and handling of
putrescible waste coupled with an increase in worker expo –
sure to these harmful materials).
t
Due to the increased complexity of the recycling and waste
sector across Europe, there will be greater reliance on
multiple contractors and multiple contractor interfaces .
This is likely to increase the risk of accidents due to poor
communication.
t
Novel processes are being developed, commercially intro –
duced, or becoming widespread in Europe. Each of these
will have speci /f_ic hazards associated with them. Examples
include the anaerobic digestion of organics with /f_ire/explo –
sion risk due to the methane produced and the separation of
brominated /f_ire retardants from waste electrical equipment,
with potential exposure to toxic or carcinogenic substances.t
The expansion or introduction of processes have been driven
by the introduction of European legislation on recycling ,
some of which will have increasing targets in the next 5–10
years, such as the European Battery Directive and the Waste
Electrical and Electronic Equipment Directive (WEEE). Addi –
tionally, the increase in recycling has been driven by the
increasing cost of land /f_ill in Europe. Now, a  large number of
companies are recycling waste electronics and batteries.
t
Household items and electronics that are currently used will
become waste that is likely to be recycled in the near future
This means there will be changes in the waste stream , which
could lead to an increase in hazards (e.g. the switch from
incandescent bulbs to low-energy light bulbs has increased
the risk to workers from exposure to mercury). OSH organisa –
tions will need to be aware of changes in the waste stream
and associated changes in workplace hazards.
t
The priority should be to integrate OSH into the conception
of the entire waste treatment process and work organisation.
t
Certification and standards (for the waste operator for
the entire waste process) could help improve safety, but
it is important that standards promote the principle of
de signed-in safety .
Note on limitations of OSH analysis
This is a  futures-based view of this technology. The issues consid –
ered above were based on a  single day’s workshop with experts
in technology and/or OSH expertise as well as policymakers, with
the HSL desk research as brie /f_ing. The intention was to illustrate
the power of the scenario method to broaden the discussion and
generate insights. This is not intended to be a  comprehensive
list of OSH issues.
5.4.5. Green transport
Vehicle engine nomenclature
EV: electric vehicle
PHEV: plug-in hybrid electric vehicle
ICE: internal combustion engine
PV: photovoltaic
V2G: vehicle to grid (energy transfer)
Platooning: Vehicles travelling closely together under auto –
matic control

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
88 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkComparison of technology developments across scenarios
Table 17: Technology developments: Transport
Technology developments Win-Win Bonus World Deep Green
Cars Most new cars are EV or PHEVMany new cars are electric
Some use gas fuel cell powerWidespread use of bicycles
and electric bicycles
Engines Fuel cellsHighly e fficient petrol and
diesel, for PHEVMix of electric and
life-extended internal
combustion models
Self-driving vehiclesSome self-driving autonomous
vehicles
Self-driving vehicles can form
themselves into platoons  (8) on
motorways and highways to
save energyMotorway platooning led by
professional driver
In emergencies, platooning
cars can stop and park
themselvesHuman drivers (but reduced
distances driven)
Road infrastructureMajor change — electric
recharging and grid; support
for automationRoad infrastructure to
support automationVery limited or no
infrastructure investments
Public transportElectric land transport
Biofuelled aircraftAutomated trains
High speed rail Growing rail use
Public transport plays a  key
role: heavily subsidised and,
sometimes, free
Multimodal city transport
Private transportReduced demand for business
travelOverall growth in travel
Growing air travel and sea
transportSeverely curtailed transport
demand
TeleworkingIncreased levels (primarily to
save energy)Increased levels (primarily to
avoid congestion)Increased levels (primarily to
reduce overall consumption)
FreightElectric for short runs (50  km)
Road-rail for long distancesElectri /f_ied or biodiesel trucks
Electri /f_ied or biodiesel rail
Hybrid diesel vansWide role for green two-
wheeled deliveries in cities
Trucks retain internal
combustion technology
(8) Platooning is where a  convoy of automated vehicles follow a  driven lead
vehicle.Transport in Win-Win
Technology and societal context
In Win-Win in 2025, new cars are mostly electri /f_ied with fully
electric city runabouts and, for long-distance use, plug-in electric
hybrids with highly e fficient biopetrol and biodiesel engines. The
few remaining non-electric vehicles use biofuels or gas, though
some use hydrogen.
Over time, technology has made the running of an electric car
more convenient and energy e fficient:t
rapid recharging (at a  rate of 50–100  kW) has become
widespread;
t
intelligent congestion charging manages the road space to
reduce the time and energy costs of congestion;
t
control technology allows platooning (closely-spaced vehi –
cles following each other automatically) on motorways;
t
new materials keep the weight and energy consumption low;
and

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 89t
ICT systems allow people to make informed choices about
when and how to travel with maximum convenience and
minimum energy consumption.
Finally, self-driving vehicles have become available. Driverless
transport has evolved through the sequence of subway trains
(before 2012); suburban trains (2015); trams (2020); buses (2020);
cars on motorways (2020); and cars in towns (2025). Cars have been
automated to the level of motorway platooning: self-driving auton –
omous cars should be able to extricate themselves from a  platoon
and stop and park themselves, in particular in case of emergency.
Elsewhere, small city delivery trucks, and public transport (includ –
ing buses) have been electri /f_ied; long-distance freight transport
has shifted to multimodal road-rail transport; and the develop –
ment of e ffective video-conferencing systems has reduced the
need for business travel.
Transport in Bonus World
Technology and societal context
In Bonus World in 2025, consistently high oil prices have led to
a big new nuclear power programme (which is only just coming on stream after many years), and continued use of fossil fuels
for electricity generation and transport. Concern for energy use
is driven by the high cost. The focus is on lighter more e fficient
transport solutions.
EVs are sometimes used as city runabouts, but PHEVs have quickly
become a  large share of all new cars sold, powered by highly
efficient, clean and economical diesel and petrol engines.
The demand for transport continues to grow, across all modes,
and congestion in the air and on the roads gets ever worse, coun –
tered to some extent by congestion pricing and road charging.
Urban trains and, /f_inally, trams have been automated. Cars have
been automated to the level of motorway platooning led by
a professional driver. The requirement for motorway automa –
tion was for the car to drive along the motorway and be able to
stop and park itself safely if the driver does not take control again
at the end of the automated section.Workshop discussion on OSH — Transport in Win-Win
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Maintenance in high capacity environments
The Win-Win scenario requires complex and sophisticated transportation networks.
The complex mixture of novel materials (e.g. composites, alloys and polymer-based
materials) and novel systems may have OSH implications. Construction and rapid
upgrade of infrastructure will have an impact on OSH, especially with a  possibly less
skilled workforce early on in the contractor supply chain. Attention and resources
will be needed to provide safe maintenance capacity. Greatest in Win-Win
and Bonus WorldNot new, but
growing as
sophistication
of transport
infrastructure grows
Self-driving cars and other vehicles
In the context of people driving for their work or commuting, this development
is potentially very positive for OSH, though it brings a  risk of over-reliance on
the technology. Absolute reliability will be essential, with fail-safe modes in the
event of accidents, problems, incidents and failures. Mostly Win-Win and
Bonus WorldNew risks
Electric vehicles and quick charging of electric vehicles
With such high energy densities, there may be an increasing risk of explosion or
/f_ire. This will be particularly high during rapid recharging, and after accidents.
In the short term, the key consideration will be lack of training and familiarity
with maintenance workers and in the emergency services to deal with these
new situations. Over time, the number of people exposed will increase, but
experience in safer design and level of skills in safe use will increase also.
Charging infrastructure may be a  prime source of electrical risk for maintenance
workers especially if damaged or vandalised.All scenarios, but
greatest in Win-WinRapidly growing
exposure
Teleworking and teleconferencing
This has positive implications in reduced travel stress and time, and may give
workers more control over their working day. But it may also lead to more
difficulties for employers in ensuring good working environments (e.g. in
employees’ homes), isolation from colleagues, and less separation of private
home and working life. Organisations will need to get used to new working
practices and learn how to manage sta ff appropriately and /f_lexibly.Likely in all scenarios:
in Win-Win (to save
energy), in Bonus
World (to avoid
congestion), and Deep
Green (to reduce
overall consumption)Growing strongly
Domestic hazards
will become an OSH
concern

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
90 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkWorkshop discussion on OSH — Transport in Bonus World
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Electric vehicle maintenance
New and unfamiliar systems in electric vehicles will initially be maintained by
specialist repairers, but these will migrate to general repairers over time, requiring
extensive training in safe procedures.Mostly Win-Win
and Deep GreenGrowing risks
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
Automation
Automation in transport leads to a  reduced role for humans and will be very positive
for safety in the long term, although it brings the issue of over-reliance on the
technology and of its absolute reliability. Self-driving vehicles need to ensure safety
for workers in the roadway.Greatest in Win-
Win and Bonus
WorldNew processes bring
risk, but automation
is likely to be
positive for OSH
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
Reuse of EV batteries
The biggest OSH impact from EVs may not be in vehicles at all. Batteries degrade
over time, so old batteries that no longer perform adequately in EVs will be replaced.
But they will still have electrical storage capability (perhaps 50  % of new capacity).
This means that they will be used in static energy storage. So, in an EV world, the
main risks from degraded and decaying and unlabelled EV batteries will be in
energy storage applications for grid boosting or even home electricity demand
management. Risks will be made worse by users not knowing the history of the EV
battery and, maybe, not even knowing the full details of its construction. All scenarios, but
greatest in Win-
Win and Bonus
WorldHigh
Transport in Deep Green
Technology and societal context
In Deep Green in 2025, the focus on transport is e fficiency. Peo –
ple only travel when necessary, and use virtual meeting places
whenever they can. This is a  world of con /f_licting priorities, where
painful choices have had to be made. The deep green philoso –
phy pushes against major changes in infrastructure: the aim has
become to better use what exists. Infrastructure cannot change
quickly; therefore, changes in behaviour were needed to achieve
green goals.
There is no new nuclear power: society sticks, through necessity,
to shifting the generating mix towards renewable energy systems
(RES). There is a  growing role for renewables, but funds for invest –
ment in these are limited.
There has been no substantial shift in the transport mix. There are
some electric cars, but the majority are still internal combustion
engines (ICE). The Green way is to make better use of existing
cars — to prolong their working life. Retro /f_itting of e fficiency
measures such as stop-start ignition and low-resistance tyres
are widespread.Road freight is still ICE, as there have been no great advances in
battery technology that would power more than the smallest
runabouts, or public transport vehicles that can recharge regu –
larly. For long-distance freight, of which there is less, road-rail
intermodal transport is favoured.
But, there are new solutions to the issue of urban mobility, with
many electric bikes and electric buses. Walking or cycling jobs for
the transportation of goods and delivery of services in urban areas
are the norm. Plumbers, electricians and certain maintenance
services, for example, now use cargo bikes to deliver their services
(WHO, 2011). People make their own decisions about transport:
in some remote areas, the norm is also electric for local travel, as
renewable energy to recharge EVs is available locally at less cost
than transporting re /f_ined fossil fuels.
Public transport is heavily subsidised and, sometimes, free.
In the context of Deep Green and low growth, there has been
growth in self-entrepreneurship as more people try to make a  liv-
ing by /f_inding new ‘green’ methods for delivery services.

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 91Workshop discussion on OSH — Transport in Deep Green
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Two-wheeled vehicles
Increased use of bicycles may lead to more accidents. Two-wheeled vehicles (e.g.
cargo bikes) are used for the transport of people and goods, including mail and other
deliveries, takeaway food, parcels and bigger items, as well as for delivery of services.
‘Mobility entrepreneurs’ may bring a  reduced OSH culture and have lower access to
OSH services. Deep green Growing risk
Human-ICT interfaces
Human-ICT interfaces can give rise to complex risks. There are greater risks if the
ICT system fails, and the over-reliance on ICT can lead to loss of skills that would be
necessary in the event of such a  failure.Greatest in
Bonus WorldGrowing risks
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
EV electrical risks
Higher voltages in EVs lead to high maintenance risks if the safe working procedures
described by the manufacturers in the user guide are not followed. Electrical
risks also arise from charging stations. Risks are also linked to the combination of
electricity and water (in the case of rain or /f_looding) and there are technological
challenges linked to energy storage. The risks are predominantly to technicians
and service workers working at service stations, but possible risks to wider groups if
charging stations are not well maintained.All scenarios,
but greatest in
Win-WinRapidly growing
exposure
Growth of self-entrepreneurs in green transport and deliveries
The self-employed tend to have a  lower awareness of OSH risks, less access to OSH
services such as OSH medical surveillance, and poorer links to labour inspectorate
services. They are generally not covered by worker protection legislation.Deep Green Increasing
occurrence
Complementary information from desk research and Phase  2 technology workshop on OSH issues for transport
Workshop brie /f_ing on OSH issues
The brie /f_ing material for the transport workshop, based on desk research by HSL, as well as the discussions in the Phase  2 technol –
ogy workshop (Section  4.3), highlighted the following OSH factors.
t
The electri /f_ication of road transport is occurring over the next 10 years in Europe. The risks associated with this include elec –
trocution and /f_ire risk from vehicles and necessary infrastructure, such as charging points, battery swap depots and smart grid
connections. Batteries used in vehicles have a  high voltage and amperage. There will be additional electrical risks during bat –
tery removal, car maintenance, and to emergency services after a  road accident. Safety may not be a  priority when designing
these systems: Will there be su fficient knowledge of technology and its safe use? There will be a  need for provision of robust
training in the refuelling, and maintenance, of electric vehicles.
t
Electri /f_ied rail networks across Europe have been, and will continue to be, introduced in order to reduce carbon emissions.
The risks associated with this will come from construction activities, electrocution and /f_ire risks during building of infrastructure
as well as risks from trains during track preparation and maintenance.
t
New vehicle fuels such as Liqui /f_ied Petroleum Gas (LPG), or natural gas may be introduced in the EU Member States to reduce
carbon and particulate emissions. There may be risks associated with the use of unfamiliar new fuels in vehicles: LPG, for exam –
ple, has di fferent properties to petrol, and a  different refuelling procedure. There will also be risks from /f_ire and explosion due
to increased distribution of these fuels. The aviation industry is aiming for biofuel to make up 10  % of fuel by 2017: there may
be risks associated with this change.
t
There will be increasing numbers of hydrogen vehicle pilots and demonstrations , such as the over 150 hydrogen vehicles used
at the London 2012 Olympics. There will be /f_ire and explosion risks from all stages of the hydrogen process from distribution
through to refuelling and its use. In the future, it is possible that major infrastructure developments will be needed to distr ibute
hydrogen for transport either alone or mixed with natural gas (as ‘Hythane’), through existing or new pipeline networks. If so,
the risks and hazards associated with this approach will need to be considered. In the nearer future, for transport applicatio ns,
there will be a  need to distribute hydrogen in some form direct to the end-user, analogous to the operation of petrol stations
at present. Hydrogen has also been suggested as a  possible (although not very likely) fuel for aircraft as well as road vehicles.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
92 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Workt
Use of ‘intelligent’ vehicle aids that have been, and are being, developed include automatic braking, fatigue monitoring and
vehicle-to-vehicle communication. ‘Road trains’ or platooning is being developed by Volvo as part of the Safe Road Trains for
the Environment (Sartre) project. The technology allows a  car to automatically monitor the car in front and mimic its actions
during long-haul drives on pre-planned routes. The platoon will be led by a  professional driver. These technologies should
make workplace driving safer. However, there may be risks from over-reliance on vehicle technology (e.g. not enough attention
being paid to the road, or a  driver following a  satellite navigation system regardless of where it leads him — even into a  river!).
These technologies could also fail, which may lead to accidents.
t
‘Intelligent’ transport infrastructure in cities can be used as a  more e fficient way to control tra ffic, thus reducing the time that
vehicles are stationary and reducing energy use. Process-safety software to run such systems needs to be robust and reliable,
to avoid accidents.
t
Internet shopping is increasing further and means that organisations can reduce their carbon footprint, as fewer people have
to drive to the store. This will lead to more delivery vehicles on the road, many on tight schedules (aiming for ‘just-in-time’
delivery), which can increase the risk of an accident. Additionally, there are likely to be increased levels of MSDs from drivers
having to lift heavy items on their own.
t
There will be an increase in European Lique /f_ied Natural Gas (LNG) imports . LNG vessels and terminals are increasing in size
and number. There are hazards from /f_ire, explosion, /f_ireball and late ignition of a  vapour cloud. The scale of the hazard from
a large LNG deep-water port spill is around 3  km for /f_ire and about 5  km for a  vapour dispersion explosion risk.
t
Use of novel materials and substances , including nanomaterials, in all kinds of vehicles may bring the risk of worker exposure
in manufacturing and use, or risks from the performance of such materials and substances.
Source: UK Health and Safety Laboratory Futures Team and additional sources (HSE, 2010b; Grant, 2010; Umair, 2011).
OSH discussion for transport
Although there is a  lot of potential for change in transport, includ –
ing rail, air and shipping, the workshop tended to focus on electric
and hybrid road vehicles, perhaps re /f_lecting those areas where
there is currently most activity. This, in turn, focused primarily on
cars and vans, as trucks were considered unlikely to be suitable
for electri /f_ication in the near to medium term.
Issues that may be of concern to OSH organisations include
emissions targets and the price of oil, which are likely to drive an
increase in the number of electric and hybrid vehicles. Electric
vehicles are likely to present signi /f_icant electrical risks to workers
and the wider public from the high voltages involved. Drivers and
workers involved in maintenance will initially be unfamiliar with
the high voltages (approximately 360–500  V), instead being used
to the 12  V batteries associated with current internal combustion
engines. Hence, there may be electrical risks in:
t
maintenance, as electrical vehicle maintenance moves away
from specialist providers to smaller independent garages as
EVs become more widespread;
t
recharging, either by cable or through battery replacement;
and
t
rescue after accidents.
This means that there is a  need to raise awareness of the potential
hazards of high-voltage batteries in vehicles and the associated
infrastructure. Groups of workers most at risk are independent
mechanics and rescue workers. There also needs to be suit –
able accredited training for the mechanics who will service and maintain hybrids and EVs, and for personnel involved in battery
recharge or swap systems.
A rise in the number of EVs or hybrid vehicles due to government
incentives or cheaper prices is likely to lead to a  corresponding
increase in the number of vehicles being scrapped (as was seen
across Europe with the scrappage scheme to stimulate the Euro –
pean car market). European end-of-life legislation for vehicles
means that more vehicles will be dismantled and recycled with
a corresponding increase in the number of potential workplace
exposures to hazardous chemicals, materials and microbes.
There may be risks from exposure to new materials in manufacture
and re /f_inishing as lighter, more e fficient vehicles are designed and
manufactured. For example, the increasing use of carbon /f_ibre
may pose a  health risk to workers manufacturing these vehicles.
Use of intelligent computer systems in cars will increase and
become mainstream, initially to provide driver assistance, such
as lane departure or blind spot warning system. This technology
will lead to semi-automated driving, initially with platooning on
motorway systems and, maybe by 2020, eventually to fully auto –
mated driving in city centres.
The volume of travel may be scenario-dependent: the cost to
travel to work versus the advances in telecommunication tech –
nology and its quality for telecommuting and meetings and the
environmental bene /f_its this will bring will be important.
The increasing cost of fuel and European legislation on city air
quality will increase the number of bicycles and motorised two-
wheeled vehicles on city roads (e.g. motor scooter sales have

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 93increased in the United Kingdom recently). There will be increased
accident and injury risks to workers using two-wheeled travel to
commute or for business, rather than four-wheeled vehicles, but
there will be fewer cars and large vehicles in city centres, so this
may mitigate the risk. There are likely to be more electrical tram
systems installed in European cities as a  result of legislation and
high fuel prices. There are likely to be safety risks (mostly collision-
related) to people not familiar with trams and their movements.
There will be explosion, /f_ire and burn hazards associated with the
greater storage and distribution of hydrogen if hydrogen vehicle
uptake becomes signi /f_icant over the next 10 years, particularly
as individuals are not familiar with the di fferences in refuelling,
operation and hazards associated with this technology. Again,
/f_ire, ambulance and police personnel are unlikely to know that
a vehicle involved in an accident is hydrogen fuelled, or how
to deal with it. There may also be OSH hazards associated with
hydrogen if land-use planning is not carried out (e.g. placing
a hydrogen refuelling station or storage facility close to residen –
tial, business premises or in some other inappropriate location).
Increasing imports of LPG and LNG for vehicles will increase the
risk of /f_ire and explosions at associated o ffshore, port and storage
facilities. Additionally, any switch to greater use of LPG and LNG
in vehicles is likely to lead to unfamiliarity with the new refuelling
systems, infrastructure and operations, which may increase the
risk to individuals from /f_ire, burns and explosions.
Sophisticated transportation networks, with a  complex mixture
of multiple systems and modes of transport, may have increased
risks. This increased risk will be due to the combination of OSH
risks from all the forms of transport within the multimodal sys –
tem  — trains, cars and road freight.Construction and the rapid upgrade of infrastructure to support the
electri /f_ication of rail and road transport will have implications for
OSH, due to the combinations of risk. These include the hazards asso –
ciated with construction activities along with electrical hazards. This
work may be carried out by a  less-skilled, possibly migrant, workforce
used early on in the contractor supply chain. Poor communication,
language issues and, potentially, di fferent OSH cultures could lead
to increased risks. Attention by OSH professionals and stakeholders
along with monitoring, training and resources will be needed to
provide a  safe maintenance capacity for this extensive work.
Note on limitations of OSH analysis
This is a  futures-based view of this technology. The issues consid –
ered above were based on a  single day’s workshop with experts
in technology and/or OSH expertise as well as policymakers, with
the HSL desk research as brie /f_ing. The intention was to illustrate
the power of the scenario method to broaden the discussion and
generate insights. This is not intended to be a  comprehensive
list of OSH issues.
5.4.6. Green manufacturing, robotics and automation
Comparison of technology developments across scenarios
Manufacturing is one of the key drivers in the future of green jobs.
New manufacturing techniques (including robotics) will allow
new products to be made and old products to be produced with
less energy and less waste of material inputs.
Similarly, new techniques such as 3D printing and small-scale
production will reduce transport costs to the place of use, and
may be more energy e fficient. Novel enzymes and other biotech –
nology production methods will allow manufacturing of many
products at lower temperatures and with less energy than today.
Table 18: Technology developments: Manufacturing
Technology developments Win-Win Bonus World Deep Green
Demand for manufactured
goodsHigh High Reduced levels of manufacturing
Level of automation High Very high Low
Con /f_igurationDistributed local
productionAutomated self-
assembling plantsNearer point of use
Attitudes to safetyAutomate away the risks
to humansOnly where lack of safety
has a  /f_inancial costUnemployed workers more ready
to accept risky jobs because of high
unemployment rates
Design philosophyWhole life cycle
Design for dismantlingBuilt-in obsolescence
Fashion drivenReduced energy and material reliance
Repair and reuse
Attitudes to chemicals used
in manufacturingLow impact chemicals
More care with chemicals
and materialsDon’t care Less use of chemicals
Process philosophy ‘Green tech’High tech
More innovation and
advanced robotics‘Slow tech’

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
94 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkManufacturing in Win-Win
Technology and societal context
In Win-Win in 2025, mass customisation and /f_lexible manufactur –
ing systems, such as 3D printing, have changed the industrial
ecology, with distributed local production within integrated sup –
ply chains.
High levels of automation mean that many processes are per –
formed within autonomous manufacturing cells. Much of the
manufacturing industry is roboticised. Intelligent robots collabo –
rate between themselves and work closely with humans. But even
with self-diagnosing equipment, high levels of skills are needed
for maintenance. These skills are in short supply, even with con –
tinuous training on the job. There is always work for highly skilled
personnel.Work layouts are redesigned towards smart working environ –
ments (using modelling or simulation techniques).
Bioautomation combines humans and robots and materials and
structures. This ranges from arti /f_icial limbs to electronic implants:
initially, these were used in healthcare to address disabilities (e.g.
replacing limbs or supplementing damaged neural pathways).
Sustainable design has become the prevailing design philoso –
phy, with whole life cycle assessment of products and processes.
Products are designed for eventual dismantling.
Many new materials and nanocomposites that are used are
lighter, have higher performance, and a  lower carbon footprint.
Workshop discussion on OSH — Manufacturing in Win-Win
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Smart robots
Intelligent robots working closely with humans make the safety of the interaction
paramount. Some types of robot malfunctions may be di fficult to detect until it is too
late and may put workers’ safety at risk. The same technology will make it possible for
protective equipment, for humans, to adapt itself to the needs and dangers of each
situation.High in Win-Win
and greatest in
Bonus WorldRapidly growing
hazard
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
New materials
Many new materials and nanocomposites are lighter, have higher performance,
and a  lower CO2 footprint. There is strong pressure to use them in Win-Win, despite
the unknown (long-term) potential health risks both in manufacturing and in
downstream uses. And, if they are recyclable, as they should be, then there will also
be possible health risks in the waste treatment sector.
Regulators should develop an appropriate legislative framework, and invest more in
research and health assessments of new materials and new processes. These should
be piloted before going full scale. On the other hand, new materials may be safer
substitutes for hazardous substances.Greatest use of
new materials
overall in Bonus
World
Greatest
innovation
in green jobs
(including use of
new materials) in
Win-WinNew risks
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 95Workshop discussion on OSH — Manufacturing in Win-Win
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Reduction of batch sizes to one
As economic batch sizes are reduced from the millions typical of ‘mass production’
to one, manufacturing supply chains will recon /f_igure, with manufacturing much
closer to the point of use. This will lead to the decentralisation and reduction in size
of manufacturing systems, and wider distribution of chemicals amongst possibly
untrained workers.
More distributed small-scale production equipment may give rise to lower severity
but higher frequency of exposure, and risks may be more di fficult to control. All
novel technologies and procedures may cause OSH issues, and need careful OSH
assessment. Risks associated with recon /f_iguration of equipment will increase.High in Win-Win
and greatest in
Bonus WorldRapidly growing
hazard
Disassembly of manufactured goods
The dismantling of manufactured goods, especially when driven by WEEE directives,
brings MSDs, eye strain, and exposure to dangerous substances, along with other
risks, if work processes are not well designed, and control measures not put in place.
In Win-Win, there is the greatest demand for safe, green and pro /f_itable systems for
disassembling electronic goods. Eventually, disassembly should be fully roboticised,
avoiding human contact with the dangers of discarded manufactured goods.Worst manual
handling in
Deep Green
Automation in
Win-Win and
Bonus WorldAutomation would
be bene /f_icial to OSH
Non-ionising radiation
There are potential health risks from radiation from increased use of microwaves,
lasers, etc., and exposure to electromagnetic /f_ields (EMF) from use of Wi-Fi
connections between humans and machines.Most applicable
in high-
innovation
scenariosLow
Manufacturing in Bonus World
Technology and societal context
In Bonus World in 2025, there are high levels of overall innova –
tion (not necessarily ‘green’). Many new materials and processes
have been invented and used in production. Moore’s Law has
continued to operate: ICT o ffers ever-higher processing power.
Many processes have been computerised and automated. The
evolution of the ‘Internet of Things’ continues. Human workers
and robots work in close proximity and often collaboratively.
Production lines have become /f_lexible and self-adapting. Materi –
als are moved around automatically: even the machinery is moved
automatically as plants are designed to self-assemble.
Mass customisation and /f_lexible manufacturing systems, such as
3D printing, have changed the industrial ecology, with distributed
local production within integrated supply chains. Localised plants
mean distributed hazards (e.g. a  wider distribution of chemicals
amongst possibly untrained workers).The economies of scale of mass production are preserved even
with batch sizes of one. There is customised local production and
even manufacturing while delivering.
Biotechnology is being used in many manufacturing processes.
Manufacturing needs very skilled workers and technicians, with
no jobs for the unskilled. Most ‘manufacturing’ jobs are in knowl –
edge-based marketing, design, etc., as other jobs are automated.
Adaptable workers need a  wider education, not just focused train –
ing. Poor education is the cause of an economic bottleneck.
Human performance-enhancing drugs are being used in work
settings, including manufacturing, because of the highly competi –
tive work environments and job intensity.
Subcontracting is an integral part of a  managed process, so atti –
tudes to OSH within subcontractors re /f_lect those of the main
manufacturer: reduction of risks is seen as a  cost.

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96 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkWorkshop discussion on OSH — Manufacturing in Bonus World
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Safety
Safety is engineered into manufacturing systems because of the otherwise high
cost of accidents in terms of lost production. Short-term safety will be high, even
in smaller local production sites but, without legislation, there will be less focus on
long-term health issues that do not disturb production.Bonus World Not new
Long-term health
Employers in this world will only care about long-term health issues (as opposed to
production-costing accidents) if they are legally liable. Legislation or government
mandate is needed for OSH organisations or labour inspectorates to impose such
liabilities. Such organisations will need to demonstrate the economic case for
ensuring protection from long-term health risks, so that employers accept liability.
Health surveillance programmes should be more comprehensive, and records are
needed of exposure in the past (i.e. from 2012), supplemented by longitudinal
studies. But /f_lexibility and diversity of production leads to di fficulty in linking e ffects
to processes: nobody spends 30 years on the same production line any more.Greatest in Bonus
WorldScenario-
dependent: in Deep
Green, the focus will
be on long-term
environmental
health; in Win-Win,
more e fforts will
be made for the
early assessment of
health e ffects of new
materials
Bioautomation and human implants
With an ageing population working later in life, OSH risk assessments may have
to accommodate developments in human performance-enhancing technologies
such as implants in the body to operate bionic limbs. These may lead to issues with
biocompatibility, and issues with privacy and personal life. As functionality and
person-machine interconnections increase, it will be necessary to monitor for initial
signs of unrecognised OSH issues and new physical and mental health conditions
from this highly arti /f_icial situation.Greatest in Bonus
World, possibly
high as well in
Win-WinNew
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
Human-Machine Interfaces (HMIs)
Machines, materials and people will need to interact. It is not known how humans
will react to the continuous high cognitive load of HMIs. Chips in humans allow
inputs directly into the brain (e.g. to allow the control of machinery, IT equipment
or bionic limbs, or to treat depression). These may lead to health or safety issues as
yet unknown (e.g. biocompatibility, but also susceptibility to magnetic or electric
/f_ields, as well as blurred boundaries between professional and private life). Greatest in Bonus
World, possible as
well in Win-WinUncertain risk that
needs research
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
Uncaged robots
Uncaged robots will be an issue as boundaries between robot space and human
space become blurred in the industrial environment (and outside it). It may bring
safety issues. It will, therefore, be essential to integrate OSH during development.
Robots will have sensors to detect humans. Chips on people proving their level,
past training and current state of awareness will be used as ‘authority to operate’.
Unchipped persons will be sensed and cause the machinery to shut down.Greatest in Bonus
World, also
possibly high in
Win-WinRapidly growing
hazard
Robot maintenance
Procedures will be needed for the safe maintenance of robots, and there will also
be issues of cyber security and privacy, potentially contributing to stressGreatest in Bonus
World, also
possibly high in
Win-WinRapidly growing
hazard
New occupational diseases
What exposure will there be to chemicals and new materials, and to new processes
and procedures in the future? Without exposure registers, diseases are di fficult to
trace back to jobs as no one stays on the same production line for their entire career
any more.Greatest in the
high innovation
Bonus WorldScope for new
physical risks (e.g.
new MSDs), as well
as exposure to
chemicals
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 97Workshop discussion on OSH — Manufacturing in Bonus World
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Exposure to new chemicals and potentially harmful substances
Exposure to new chemicals and potentially harmful substances (e.g. composites,
nanomaterials, smart materials, polymer gels, intelligent polymers) where OSH
information about these may be lacking, and exposure poorly controlled, may make
dissemination of information on risks and prevention di fficult in SMEs.Greatest use of
new materials
overall in Bonus
World
Greatest
innovation
in green jobs
(including use of
new materials) in
Win-WinNew risks
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
Manufacturing in Deep Green
Technology and societal context
In Deep Green in 2025, there is lower consumption of mass-
produced goods and, consequently, a  manufacturing sector of
reduced size. Some o ffshore production has returned to Europe,
with more point-of-need manufacturing. Manufacturing focuses
on reducing energy and materials use. The target is zero-land /f_ill,
zero-emission factories.
Highly automated working environments are generally safer by
design, but in Deep Green there is less new automation than in
other scenarios, and more ageing plants and industrial infrastruc –
ture (including ageing robots and assembly lines). The march of
technology slows, except for green technologies (green products
and green processes). Green public procurement supports inno –
vation in this area.But legacy bottlenecks still exist, as new systems take time to
be adopted (e.g. in 2012, laser welding was faster, but many
manufacturers still used spot welding, as they had invested in
the equipment and skills.)
There are more decentralised, low-investment, low-margin manu –
facturing sectors, which need maintenance and servicing. Decen –
tralised repair and maintenance services have become common
again as there is a  strong focus on reuse. These are negative in /f_lu-
ences on OSH in manufacturing.
With heavily subsidised or free public transport, fewer cars are
used or sold, and there is an increase in deliveries to home
addresses. New vehicles are not the mainstay of manufacturing
industry that they once were.
Workshop discussion on OSH — Manufacturing in Deep Green
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Process integration
Process integration may bring new OSH risks due to the bringing together
of industrial processes previously performed in di fferent locations, such
as manufacturing and recycling. This requires new skills and technical
knowledge in the workforce that now has to undertake this work.Greatest in Win-Win
and Deep GreenNot new processes, but
unfamiliar
Lack of skills in the manufacturing sector
Bringing back manufacturing to the EU may mean demand for
manufacturing jobs, but OSH is often tacit knowledge passed on in
a master-apprentice relationship, so this might be in short supply following
the decline of manufacturing in recent years.Skills shortages
may be a  feature
of all scenarios,
but in the context
of manufacturing
returning to the EU will
be signi /f_icant in Deep
GreenGrowing issue with
implications for OSH
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common across
technologies)
Ageing manufacturing infrastructure
In absence of new investments, ageing manufacturing infrastructure
may have signi /f_icant OSH implications (e.g. due to corrosion or material
fatigue).Greatest in Deep Green Not new

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
98 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkWorkshop discussion on OSH — Manufacturing in Deep Green
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Low OSH culture
New small service companies that supply the greater maintenance load in
Deep Green may have a  low OSH culture, and /f_ind it di fficult to access OSH
information and expertise.Greatest in Deep Green Not new
Less automation
Less automation in Deep Green may in /f_luence OSH. The time lag in the
adoption of new technologies may mean that old OSH issues persist.Greatest in Deep Green Automation is very
positive for OSH
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common across
technologies)
Unpredictable night shifts
There could be an increasing move towards such shifts as the pattern
of electricity prices change. Electricity from renewable energy sources
(e.g. wind energy) will bring lower energy costs during the night for
many nights in the year. Night shift work is commonly associated with an
increased accident rate. Shift work that involves circadian disruption is
classi /f_ied as probably carcinogenic to humans by the International Agency
for Research on Cancer (IARC, 2010).Applicable to Win-Win
but greatest in Deep
GreenEmerging issue
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common across
technologies)
Maintenance and recycling of imported equipment and products
Unknown or unlabelled imported materials mean that the appropriate
prevention measures to ensure their safe maintenance and recycling may
not be in place as a  result of a  lack of information.More imported
products in the more
globalised worlds
of Bonus World in
particular, and Win-Win,
but higher maintenance
and recycling in Deep
Green and Win-WinNot new
Complementary information from desk research and Phase  2 technology workshop on OSH issues for manufacturing, robotics
and automation
Workshop brie /f_ing on OSH issues
The brie /f_ing material for the manufacturing, robotics, and automation workshop, based on desk research by HSL, as well as the
discussions in the Phase  2 technology workshop (Section  4.3), highlighted the following OSH factors.
t
More sophisticated pre-programmed robots have been developed that have greater dexterity and /f_lexibility and are able to
perform more complex tasks than earlier models. These robots are entering workplaces that have not previously contained
robots (e.g. autonomous forklift trucks in warehouses). These have obvious OSH implications if workers get in the way or
uncaged autonomous machinery develops a  fault.
t
These robots are increasingly operating in much closer proximity to workers acting as assistants when previously they would
have been behind gates or fences. This has the potential to lead to an increased risk of human injury from robot collision/
strike. These robot assistants have been described as ‘cobots’, which can be de /f_ined as ‘A robot for direct physical interaction
with a  human operator, within a  shared workspace.’ Vision-based protective devices to distinguish the worker from a  cobot
and from the products being manufactured are currently being developed in order to ensure a  good teaming of the human-
machine system and, therefore, the operators’ safety. Additionally, the rapidly decreasing cost of 3D vision systems, such as
the Microsoft Kinect system, means low-cost robots with vision systems are being developed.
(9) Immediate or anaphylactic hypersensitivity.

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 99t
Robots are becoming more ‘intelligent’ and, hence, more complex , and the more complex a  device becomes, the more dif –
/f_icult it might be to achieve a  safe design. Crucially, researchers developing robots might not always have safety as a  priority,
so safety may not have been adequately considered by the time the robot is available commercially.
t
Advanced materials and processes used, especially in high-tech electronics, may be harmful to human health or be car –
cinogenic (e.g. novel metal compounds and polymers such as cadmium telluride used in thin- /f_ilm solar panel manufacture).
There is a  potential exposure risk during manufacture and disposal. There may be greater concern for the integrity of the high-
tech product than the worker’s health (e.g. in semiconductor manufacture where a  number of hazardous chemicals are used).
Other risks may include exposure to harmful /f_ibres or resins, such as epoxy resins during the manufacture of composites, the
use of which is increasing.
t
There is increasing use of carbon nanotubes in manufacturing ; recent data have shown that if certain carbon nanotubes are
inhaled they can cause in /f_lammation and /f_ibrosis in the lungs. It is also not clear if inhaled carbon nanotubes cause adverse
health e ffects in other parts of the body.
t
There is a  potential for dangerous wastes , produced from new processes, which may present chemical or biological hazards.
t
Rapid manufacturing or 3D printing has been described as being at a  ‘tipping point’. This can lead to new groups of workers
being exposed to manufacturing risks though increasing use of such machines for manufacture in SMEs, retail and education
as rapid manufacturing is introduced into courses. There is the potential for operator exposure to harmful dusts, chemicals or
laser light.
t
There are risks associated with increasing numbers of industrial biotech and green chemistry plants . There are potential
health and safety risks from breaches in reaction vessels in chemical or biological processes, including potential explosion, /f_ire
and electrical risks. There are risks during the collection and distribution of feedstocks for the plant (e.g. risks related to the
release of harmful dust, explosion, and /f_ire from wood chips). Chemical plants will need to be altered in order to accommo –
date biological feedstocks; there may be risks associated with plant construction and alteration. There may also be processing
changes (e.g. temperature and pressure) which could pose additional risks.
t
Novel enzymes are being increasingly manufactured which can act as sensitising agents (e.g. cleaning products). Potential
routes of exposure are inhalation, skin, eye, and by mouth, during manufacture and at point of use. The potential hazards
include type 1 hypersensitivity  (9) or irritation of the respiratory tract from inhalation; in certain individuals, allergic contact
dermatitis can also occur after contact with some enzymes.
t
More powerful portable laser systems are being produced at lower costs and so becoming increasingly more accessible.
Potential operator risks in using photonics equipment include electrical and /f_ire risks, substances hazardous to health (laser
marking fumes, grinding coolant mist) and lasers, which can damage eyes and skin.
t
Shift work has increased in Europe for economic reasons . Shift work enables employers to make the maximum use of plant,
which can reduce production costs and increase output. Shift work has also increased for social reasons: changes in living
and working patterns have created a  demand for goods and services outside traditional working hours. Shift work is often
introduced in organisations with manufacturing processes, which — for technical or economic reasons — must operate for
long periods or even continuously. According to the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), their current evalu –
ation is that, on the basis of ‘limited evidence in humans for the carcinogenicity of shift work that involves night work’ and of
evidence from experimental animal data, ‘shift work that involves circadian disruption is probably carcinogenic to humans.’
The IARC also concluded that there is evidence for an association with breast cancer and shift work that involves night work.
Increasing numbers of women are performing shift work. There are other health e ffects associated with shift work, including
gastrointestinal tract disorders, cardiovascular disorders and metabolic disturbances.
t
Increasing numbers of migrant workers and workers subcontracted in manufacturing may mean that health and safety
messages are not adequately communicated due to language barriers in an international workforce. Workers from a  different
country may adopt their home culture of health and safety, which may be inadequate for the work being performed.
Source: UK Health and Safety Laboratory Futures Team and additional sources (Bradbrook, 2007; HSE, 2010a; Bömer, 2003; HSE, 2009a; Bre ntnall, 2007; SDA, 2005).

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
100 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkOSH discussion for manufacturing, robotics and automation
Parts of the manufacturing sector are likely to undergo signi /f_icant
change over the next few years as advanced manufacturing tech –
niques o ffer greater /f_lexibility, allowing small production runs and
mass customisation to become economically viable. Advanced
materials will enable the design of properties to suit individual
applications. These developments, which o ffer increased e ffi-
ciency, lower energy use and reduced waste, will also change
the OSH landscape for workers in the sector.
The following OSH issues in particular need to be considered:
t
new processes and materials leading to potential exposure
to new (green) substances, including nanomaterials, or sub –
stances used or emitted (including dust) from new (green)
manufacturing processes;
t
the extent of chemical use and the potential for exposure as
manufacturing is distributed to smaller units as a  result of
rapid manufacturing techniques (3D printing);
t
the di fficulty in monitoring OSH in distributed manufacturing
taking place in smaller businesses;
t
the increasing use of lasers in techniques such as rapid man –
ufacturing; the potential physical risks from human-robot
interaction as robots gain increasing autonomy and become
free-roaming;
t
potential psychosocial risks: șthe high cognitive load of the HMI, ‘lean’ production and
just-in-time principles all have the potential to contribute
to job intensity and pressure and to result in psychosocial
problems;
șthe potential e ffect of renewable energy, with its intermit –
tent nature currently, on shift work in those companies
that take interruptible supplies, resulting in more unpre –
dictable working hours;
t
workers possibly resorting to human performance-enhancing
technologies as they feel the need to keep up with co-work –
ers, and maybe even with robots (this could also be a  feature
of other sectors); and
t
a focus on safety as opposed to health in competitive scenar –
ios owing to the greater impact of accidents on productivity
(this could also be a  feature of other sectors).
Note on limitations of OSH analysis
This is a  futures-based view of this technology. The issues consid –
ered above were based on a  single day’s workshop with experts
in technology and/or OSH expertise as well as policymakers, with
the HSL desk research as brie /f_ing. The intention was to illustrate
the power of the scenario method to broaden the discussion and
generate insights. This is not intended to be a  comprehensive
list of OSH issues.
5.4.7. Domestic and small-scale energy systems
Comparison of technology developments across scenarios
Table 19: Technology developments: Domestic and small-scale energy
Technology developments Win-Win Bonus World Deep Green
Feed-in tari ffs High Low High
Domestic heating focus CHP gas  and  heat pumps Insulation Biofuels/incineration
PV Subsidised and widespread Not viable until 2020–25 Subsidised
Smart meters In all homes Backlash against smart meters Slow roll-out
Energy productionMedium
From alternative sourcesHigh
From coal and gasLow

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 101Workshop discussion on OSH — Domestic and small-scale energy in Win-Win
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Competence of renewables workers
The design, installation, operation, maintenance and removal of renewable energy
installations (PV, micro-CHP, etc.), requires training and experience to recognise risks
and to take the appropriate safety measures. These activities may attract workers
not adequately trained in the new combinations of skills necessary to perform these
jobs (e.g. electricians working at height and roofers who have to work as electricians).
The owners of the buildings where such renewable energy systems are installed may
not be competent to select contractors to install and maintain equipment, or might
choose the cheapest ones, who may cut corners on OSH.All scenarios Growing issue
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
Risks for emergency workers
There will be risks for emergency workers accessing roof spaces with live electrical
systems even after the power to a  building has been cut.Common to all
scenariosVery high
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
Speed and diversity of change
The speed and diversity of change in Win-Win is a  challenge for OSH. There are many
new technologies, where speci /f_ic knowledge is needed and standards have not yet
been fully developed. ‘Old’ OSH knowledge may not be directly transferable to these
new technologies and, therefore, not very helpful, and applying ‘old’ procedures may
even be risky.Greatest
innovation in
green jobs in
Win-WinNew risks
Efficient and cheap PV
Efficient and cheap PV technology leads to widespread adoption of PV systems:
this brings physical and electrical hazards, and problems with sustainability of
components and panels.Greatest in Win-
Win and Deep
GreenNot new, but
extensive growth
Decentralised systems
Old risks will acquire a  new nature with decentralised systems and the risks associated
with the complexity of grid, maintenance, decommissioning and retro /f_itting.All scenarios,
but greatest in
Win-Win and
Deep GreenGrowing
SMEs become energy producers
Short-term risks may derive from SMEs using their own workers, or subcontracted
workers, to install or maintain their renewables installations (when these workers are
unskilled or partly skilled). With such installations often near other houses or other
businesses, it may also put these at risk.Win-Win and
Deep GreenNot new, but
growing occurrenceDomestic and small-scale energy in Win-Win
Technology and societal context
In Win-Win in 2025, taxes on fossil fuel energy are high enough to
change the behaviour of the population. Government incentives
reduce payback time for renewable energy to the extent that
companies and individuals invest heavily in alternative energy
technologies.
Domestic gas installations rapidly standardise on highly e fficient
fuel cell micro-CHP systems, backed up by small ground-sourced
and air-sourced heat pumps.
New forms of PV (both paint and nano-based) have sharply
reduced the cost of PV systems. Already widespread through
subsidy, PV had achieved grid parity in the south of the EU by 2020, and now, in 2025, this is being achieved in the north. This is
leading to even higher demand for further domestic installations.
In the north of the EU, large-scale wind energy had achieved grid
parity by roughly 2020, leading to more and more generation of
intermittent wind energy from proliferating wind farms.
Domestic, commercial and public buildings have solar panels.
Companies with roof space for PV and yard space for turbines
generate energy as a  secondary business, as farms already gener –
ate wind, solar, biogas, and biodiesel.
Smart meters are installed in nearly all homes and small business
premises. They are used to monitor and manage smart appliances
and electricity demand in response to the requirements of the
grid and availability of electricity generation capacity.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
102 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkDomestic and small-scale energy in Bonus World
Technology and societal context
In Bonus World in 2025, there were strong reactions against new
energy technologies when the costs become apparent to the
public. Feed-in tari ffs had been cut back sharply in 2013 and
horror stories about poor people being forced to upgrade their
domestic wiring after the old meter had been taken out led to
strong reactions against smart meters.
Power still comes from coal and gas, with less green energy over
the course of this scenario, but alternative energy became com –
petitive with fossil fuels by around 2020–25. PV reached grid par –
ity in southern Europe by 2020.
Network operators encourage some distributed generation,
but only in particular areas as a  means of saving on the costs of
upgrading the network. Blackouts are common as governments balk at the cost of investing in smart grids and storage facilities.
PV and CHP became popular for their energy security: domestic
systems are now designed to provide some electricity even if
there is a  power cut.
In Bonus World, increased consumption has led to resource short –
ages and high oil prices. Fuel prices have increased more quickly
than wealth. Poor people have to cut back on domestic heating
to save money, and fuel poverty has become an election issue.
With the cost of energy rising, house insulation (the most cost-
efficient energy measure) is important. Well-insulated homes
command higher prices.
Many teleworkers work from home in Bonus World to avoid
congestion on the roads, and there is a  need for housing with
adequate temperature control and energy systems to re /f_lect this
occupational usage.
Workshop discussion on OSH — Domestic and small-scale energy in Bonus World
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
PV energy reaches grid parity
There is widespread adoption of PV after PV systems eventually achieve economic
viability without subsidy. PV installations (high in 2012) e ffectively ceased after
feed-in tari ffs were slashed. A  great deal of knowledge about safe practice was
lost and had to be relearned when the attainment of grid parity led to renewed
widespread installation.The use of PV
is greatest in
Win-Win and
Deep Green,
but the loss
of experience
linked to change
in feed-in tari ffs
is speci /f_ic to
Bonus WorldNot new, but
extensive growth in
exposure to hazards,
especially after PV
systems eventually
achieve economic
viability
Sudden withdrawal of subsidies
In Bonus World, 2012 levels of government support for alternative energy were
withdrawn, often at short notice. This led to high levels of preventable OSH risk in the
short term as installers rushed to complete the backlog of orders before the deadline.Bonus World High levels of
unnecessary and
preventable OSH
risk
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
Psychosocial risks
A world of pro /f_it motive and high competition can lead to psychological pressures at
work and work-related stress. This OSH factor applies generally within Bonus World.Bonus World Not new, but
growing, particularly
under Bonus World
scenario
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
Imports of products
Imports of (cheaper) components and whole systems for the domestic and small-
scale renewable energy market give rise to higher risk of counterfeit, unsafe products.
Examples include cables with adulterated copper and with ine ffective /f_lame-
retardant properties. Even if components sourced from the Internet are certi /f_ied, the
system they are used in may not be safe.All scenarios, but
more likely in
Bonus WorldNot new, but may
grow and become
more widespread

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 103Domestic and small-scale energy in Deep Green
Technology and societal context
In Deep Green in 2025, taxes and charges on classic nuclear and
fossil fuels have been increased, and renewable energy sources
have reached grid parity. Renewable energy has become com –
petitive. New energy capacity is mainly decentralised, but smart
meters have been rolled out relatively slowly.
Low-carbon buildings are seen as more desirable and are valued
more than older ‘business as usual’ buildings.
There is more use of biogenerated energy resources (biofuels),
and many more small-scale energy schemes (e.g. biogas digesters, local hydroelectricity, waste incineration and domestic CHP). Do-
it-yourself approaches to energy systems are common. Many non-
standard do-it-yourself systems have been built with diverse parts
from various sources.
There is an urge to use existing equipment: a  ‘make-do-and-
mend’ mentality, with less emphasis on high-tech to achieve
results.
With emphasis on reduced consumption of energy and physi –
cal goods, most new jobs are in the service sector (e.g. repairing
services to extend the life of goods). Many new small businesses,
often with skills de /f_icits, arise to meet these needs.
Workshop discussion on OSH — Domestic and small-scale energy in Deep Green
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Electrical risks
Distributed generation gives rise to electrical risks, as many more sources
of voltage can give rise to electric shock even when the mains current is
disconnected. All scenarios, but
greatest in Win-Win
and Deep GreenNot new, but
growing
Solar PV
There is potential exposure to chemicals from PV systems during manufacture,
installation, repair, accidental damage, and during disposal or recycling. Risks
of electrocution and falls from height are always present when installing and
maintaining. Fire /f_ighters may be at risk from PV, which continues to produce
electricity even when the mains supply is turned o ff.Greatest in Win-Win
and Deep GreenNot new, but
extensive growth in
exposure to hazards
Non-standard installations
Diversity of systems and non-standard installations, including do-it-yourself
systems, give rise to risks to maintenance workers. A  strong regulatory
framework is needed to address these risks.Deep Green Not new, but
growing in this
scenario
Bioenergy
The generation of bioenergy gives rise to risks of /f_ire, explosion, toxic substances,
and biological hazards (in small-scale/domestic settings and elsewhere).Deep Green and
Win-WinNot new, but
growing
Mixing of risks
Combining and mixing technologies such as CHP, solar, thermal, may bring as
yet unknown risks from novel combinations.All scenarios, but
greatest in Win-Win
and possibly Deep
GreenGrowing issue
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
Decentralised systems
Old risks will acquire a  new nature with decentralised systems and the risks
associated with the complexity of grid, maintenance, decommissioning,
retro /f_itting, etc.All scenarios, but
greatest in Win-Win
and Deep Green Growing
Emerging technologies
New technologies may bring new risks. Long-latency e ffects may take years to
appear and it will be a  challenge to monitor such OSH situations and link health
effects to exposure. Many new areas of green technologies will be established by
innovators and entrepreneurs who may not assign the same priority to OSH as
large, established corporations.Greatest use of new
materials in Bonus
World, but Win-Win
has the greatest
innovation and
most use of new
technology within
green jobsNew risks

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
104 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkWorkshop discussion on OSH — Domestic and small-scale energy in Deep Green
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Emergency services
Emergency services will be confronted with di fferent unknown risks due to
differing combinations of energy sources, devices and systems.All scenarios, but
greatest in Win-Win
and Deep GreenNot new, but
growing
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
Distribution of risk
Alternative energy systems are distributed in nature, in small business premises
and on houses, with much wider exposure to risk (including to the general
public). This distribution makes it much more di fficult to control the quality of
installation work and therefore to control the risks, and more di fficult to enforce
good OSH practices.Deep Green and
Win-WinNot new
Unsophisticated domestic installations
Early domestic installations are likely to be installed by enthusiasts and be
assembled to their own designs. Examples include domestic production of /f_irst-
generation biodiesel with potential exposure to /f_ire, explosions and burns from
corrosive leaks.
Such unsafe installations may put maintenance workers at risk. Also, the transfer
of building ownership brings particular exposure as people may be unaware of
the risks they inherit with a  building and, therefore, the necessary information
for its safe maintenance is lost. Over time, these risks should reduce as people
become more used to these new systems.Most likely in Deep
Green scenarioGrowing risk
Local battery energy stores
It is possible that building occupiers will be tempted to use expired EV battery
packs (typically 5  kWh, weighing 50–60  kg) in their garages or basements as
energy bu ffers to store PV output and/or avoid peak-time electricity. There
would be risks of short circuiting, /f_ire, explosion, and hazardous fumes. Systems
may not be professionally connected, potentially putting maintenance and
electricity workers at risk, and people don’t currently recognise the risks of using
big batteries.
Over time, it is expected that the risks from leakage and degradation and the risk
of internal short circuits will increase. Bulk local electricity storage may need to
be restricted to locations outside the home where /f_ires would be less dangerous.All scenarios New; the risks are
to the building
occupiers and
any workers or
contractors that
they employ
Small local initiatives
In Deep Green, small clusters of householders or occupiers of other buildings
might build their own ecosystems (e.g. mini-CHP, biodigesters, or PV systems).
A small cluster of households is probably the least safe size for this sort of
activity, with no central authority or ‘keyholder’ responsible for safe operation.
With a  single building, there is a  clear responsibility, even if the building owner
has no training. Larger schemes at community scale would have a  central point
of control.Most likely in Deep
Green scenario
May not be strictly
applicable to
occupational safety
and healthEmerging risk

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 105Complementary information from desk research and Phase  2 technology workshop on OSH issues for domestic and small-scale
energy
Workshop brie /f_ing on OSH issues
The brie /f_ing material for the domestic and small-scale energy workshop, based on desk research by HSL, as well as the discussio ns
in the Phase  2 technology workshop (Section  4.3), highlighted the following OSH factors:
t
shortage of su fficient skilled workers for installation and maintenance of distributed generation systems;
t
electrical risks, falls from height and manual handling issues during the installation, connection, maintenance and dismantli ng
of roof-mounted micro-wind turbines or solar panels;
t
burns from cryogenic hydrogen storage, electrical risks from fuel cells, explosion/ /f_ire risk from handling and using hydrogen
or methane;
t
‘/f_lashover’ burns, falls and electrocution during installation, connection and maintenance of new power sources;
t
exposure to toxic chemicals and metals (e.g. cadmium — a  known carcinogen) during solar panel manufacture, disposal and
recycling, and possibly installation and maintenance in case of leakage;
t
potential exposure to epoxy resins, styrene and other hazardous chemicals/solvents during micro-wind turbine manufacture;
t
risk of exposure to asbestos during retro /f_itting activities;
t
risks to /f_ire /f_ighters from roof-mounted solar cells: limited access to the property, cells remaining live, and exposure to chemi –
cals if leakage occurs; and
t
possibly poorer quality and attendant safety risks of cheaper components bought online.
Source: UK Health and Safety Laboratory Futures Team and additional sources (Bradbrook et al., 2010; Bradbrook, 2009b; Bradbrook, 2009 c).
OSH discussion for domestic and small-scale energy
The uptake of renewable energy technologies will be a ffected
by the extent of government subsidies and will, therefore, be
scenario-dependent until, and unless, actual costs become com –
petitive with other sources. The role of solar energy and other
renewable sources versus insulation will also be scenario-depend –
ent and dependent on location. There may be new players, such
as SMEs and farmers, selling energy.
OSH issues could include the following.
t
The risk of poor quality installations as new players enter the
market, people undertake do-it-yourself installations (per –
haps sourcing parts on the Internet), and as systems are put
in quickly to meet deadlines, could lead to electrical and /f_ire
risks, maintenance issues, perhaps at heights, and risks from
gas. There could be particular risks where installers extend
beyond their original skills areas. For example, someone who
previously installed gas boilers might also install solar thermal
systems, working at heights on roofs, extending their bounda –
ries to new technologies in new situations.t
There are risks to the emergency services in dealing with such
installations. For example, solar panels remain live as long as
there is daylight, but /f_ire crews often break through the roofs
of houses to gain access. Various sprays are on the market,
claiming to ‘switch o ff’ the panels, but this remains an area
of concern.
t
Connection to the grid is an issue, as electricians have to cope
with two-way /f_lows in cables and smart metering.
t
Particular risks adhere to clusters of buildings combining
renewable technologies but with no clear responsibility for
safe operation.
Note on limitations of OSH analysis
This is a  futures-based view of this technology. The issues consid –
ered above were based on a  single day’s workshop with experts
in technology and/or OSH expertise as well as policymakers, with
the HSL desk research as brie /f_ing. The intention was to illustrate
the power of the scenario method to broaden the discussion and
generate insights. This is not intended to be a  comprehensive
list of OSH issues.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
106 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work5.4.8. Batteries and energy storage
Comparison of technology developments across scenarios
Batteries and energy storage in Win-Win
Technology and societal context
In Win-Win in 2025, several bulk energy storage solutions for
transmission grids have proved practical, and are being progres –
sively implemented. These include: large-scale molten salt stor –
age systems (50  MW); hydrogen; wind twinning  (10); and ‘virtual
storage’ by demand-side management in intelligent domestic
and industrial buildings. Experiments are continuing with deep-
sea energy storage. Static battery technologies for energy storage
include sodium-sulphur, /f_luorine and vanadium /f_low batteries.
On the smaller distribution network scale, micro compressed air
energy storage (CAES), battery storage, compact thermochemical
storage, and /f_lywheels are used.
Domestic-scale battery energy storage is common as older EV bat –
teries are used as static energy stores: more than 90  % of retired
EV batteries are used in this way.
(10) Matching demand to supply by making electricity prices high when there is
little wind and low when it is windy.In the longer term, the problem of intermittency of wind genera –
tion is being addressed as buildings are designed to include high
thermal mass, /f_ive-day domestic heat stores (for hot water), and
limited seasonal energy storage.
Connections across Europe and upgrades to capacity mean that
European hydroelectric systems are able to supply all of the Euro –
pean electricity demand for several days at a  time.
Batteries and energy storage in Bonus World
Technology and societal context
In Bonus World in 2025, the grid has maintained its substantially
one-way architecture with electricity generation mostly through
coal, nuclear, gas (fuel cells, CHP), and combined cycle gas turbine
(CCGT). PV has only recently grown strongly after grid parity was
achieved.
With less intermittent and distributed generation, there is much
less need for bulk energy storage (except for pumped hydro facili –
ties for load balancing).Table 20: Technology developments: Batteries and energy storage
Technology developments Win-Win Bonus World Deep Green
Bulk energy storageLNG tankers and biomass at
CCS power stationsCoal heapsHarvested biomass
Local wood stores
Bulk electricity storage
(transmission network scale)Many technologies prove
practical
Supergrid connects European
hydroelectric capacityLittle need for bulk storage
(except pumped hydro)‘Virtual storage’ (i.e. load
balancing by behaviour
change at national scale)
Little investment in bulk
electricity storage
Local electricity storageMany technologies prove
practical
Local heat storesSpecialised applications to
save grid upgrade costs‘Virtual storage’ (i.e. load
balancing by behaviour
change at local scale)
BatteriesLots of new battery
technologies
Widespread availability of
used EV batteries
Vehicle to Grid (V2G)
applications (e.g. where
vehicle batteries are used to
store surplus electricity from
the grid overnight)Fewer new battery
technologies
Limited spread of EV, in
favour of PHEVSlower development of
battery technology
Designed on green principles

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 107Storage applications tend to be specialised and limited. Energy
storage is used in distribution networks for load balancing
to avoid the cost of upgrading the network, and flywheels
and supercapacitors limited to specialised public transport applications. Electric vehicle development has favoured PHEVs,
with their lower energy storage requirements and therefore lim –
ited V2G capability.Workshop discussion on OSH — Batteries and energy storage in Win-Win
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Hydrogen as an energy carrier
In the future, the promise is that hydrogen can be used as an energy store and
converted back to electricity as needed. Hydrogen is di fficult to handle, di fficult
to access, and expensive to produce. In 2012, work is mostly centralised in large
companies with chemical engineering expertise, so OSH is controlled. But in the
future, as hydrogen becomes more widely used, risks arising from its transport and
storage and use by less experienced workers and even the public, in the case of
vehicles, may increase.All scenarios,
depending
on means of
generating
hydrogenNot new, but
possibly much wider
use if hydrogen
economy developed
New battery technology
Each new battery technology will bring its own speci /f_ic risks of exposure to chemicals
and /f_ire/explosion during manufacture, use, degradation, and disposal. Based on
their experience from lead-acid batteries, people generally have a  false perception
that new batteries are safe.All scenarios,
but greatest in
Win-WinNew battery
designs bring new
speci /f_ic chemical
and degradation
characteristics
Deep-sea energy storage
This works by pumping water out of a  large solid chamber on or below the seabed to
store energy. This is a  relatively low-tech concept, with no new technology involved.
It would need specialist OSH regulation like any other large o ffshore installation, but
with the added complication of high voltages and power levels, which adds risks to
installation and maintenance work.Most likely /f_irst
in Win-WinOSH should be
considered even
in the early design
stage of this
technology
Workshop discussion on OSH — Batteries and energy storage in Bonus World
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Fire risks of EV batteries
There is a  /f_ire risk related to EV batteries in vehicles (and in buildings if
charging is undertaken indoors). The industry hopes that a  solution will be
found to this problem, but no resolution is foreseen in the short term. All scenarios, but
greatest in Win-Win,
with greater use of EVsNew, depending on
battery design
Waste treatment of batteries
Dealing with life-expired batteries raises a  number of OSH issues
(e.g. exposure to toxic or caustic chemicals) mostly around recycling,
degradation and /f_ire risk. It can be di fficult to determine the contents of
any particular battery type: the precise contents are often treated as trade
secrets. All scenarios, but mainly
Win-Win and Bonus
World with their higher
innovation ratesNew risks continually
emerging
(Section  5.4.10 OSH
factors common
across technologies)
Battery composition
New battery technologies are continually being developed. Potentially,
there is exposure to hazardous chemicals, carcinogenic metals, dangerous
dusts, /f_ibres, nanoparticles, and noxious fumes.Greatest use of new
battery materials in
Bonus World, but Win-
Win has the greatest use
of batteries, especially
within green jobsNew risks

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
108 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkWorkshop discussion on OSH — Batteries and energy storage in Bonus World
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Local energy stores
Householders or small business owners may start to keep large batteries
as energy stores. These are di fferent from the batteries to which they are
accustomed; they hold much more charge — perhaps 5  kWh stores of
energy. People don’t recognise the risks from overcharging, or accidental
discharge. Decentralised systems are harder to monitor for OSH.All scenarios New; the risks are
to the owner of the
building and any
workers or contractors
that they employ
Hydrogen as an energy carrier
In the future, the promise is that hydrogen can be used as an energy store
and converted back to electricity as needed. Hydrogen is di fficult to handle,
difficult to access, and expensive to produce. In 2012, work is mostly
centralised in large companies with chemical engineering expertise, so OSH
is controlled, but in the future, as hydrogen becomes more widely used,
risks arising from its transport and storage and use by less experienced
workers and even the public, in the case of vehicles, may increase.All scenarios, depending
on means of generating
hydrogenNot new, but possibly
much wider use if
hydrogen economy
developed
Batteries and energy storage in Deep Green
Technology and societal context
In Deep Green in 2025, there is lower energy use, less acceptance
of environmentally invasive technologies, and less demand for
novel battery technologies. There is a  surge in biomass and biogas
energy production, with harvested biomass used as energy store.
There has been slower progress in batteries. The need to use
fewer toxic materials and to produce items that are more easily recycled is a  constraint on battery development. EV batteries are
reused for static energy storage as performance degrades.
Behaviour changes drive many energy requirements, with more
use of (electric) public transport rather than private transport, and
with people trying to use energy when it is available so energy
demand more closely matches supply (so-called virtual storage).
There is less emphasis on major engineering solutions, and more
on progress by incremental developments, with more of a  life
cycle approach taken, using fewer toxic materials.
Workshop discussion on OSH — Batteries and energy storage in Deep Green
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Battery technology
Batteries bring well-known risks including electrical risks, toxic chemicals and /f_ire.
There are severe risks to the emergency services. Greener batteries may be more
hazardous, as manufacturers are constrained in their choice of materials that can be
used in them. This is exacerbated by the habit of reusing and extending the working
life of equipment.All scenarios,
but greatest in
Deep Green with
more use of old
equipmentNew battery
designs bring new
speci /f_ic chemical
and degradation
characteristics
Device combinations
Combinations of di fferent devices bring risks to maintenance workers and
emergency services. Do-it-yourself systems by enthusiasts would be a  particular
hazard.Greatest in Deep
GreenNot new, but
scope for growing
importance
Hydrogen
The use of hydrogen as a  long-term energy store in vehicles and buildings or
domestic settings, bring risks of /f_ire and explosion. There are issues in transport
and distribution, with possibly cryogenic storage temperatures and possibly high
pressures. In 2012, work is mostly centralised in large companies with chemical
engineering expertise, so OSH is controlled, but in the future, as hydrogen becomes
more widely used, risks arising from its transport and storage and use by less
experienced workers and even the public, in the case of vehicles, may increase.All scenarios,
depending
on means of
generating
hydrogenNot new, but
possibly much
wider use if
hydrogen economy
developed.

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 109Complementary information from desk research and Phase  2 technology workshop on OSH issues for batteries and energy
storage
Workshop brie /f_ing on OSH issues
The brie /f_ing material for the batteries and energy storage workshop, based on desk research by HSL, as well as the discussions i n
the Phase  2 technology workshop (Section  4.3), highlighted the following OSH factors.
t
The primary concern with high-voltage electrical storage technologies is electrocution risk. In the near to medium term, there is
likely to be increasing use of electrical storage technologies in the distributed generation and microgeneration areas. The concern
will be electrical safety for installers and other workers in households, communities and SMEs, which will be generating electricity.
t
Fire risks exist with batteries.
t
Health and safety risks could arise from inexperienced tradesmen installing, maintaining or operating electricity storage
technologies that export electricity into the grid or for use locally. There may be issues surrounding the protection of these
individuals from the electricity being generated on site for storage or that is to be exported to the grid.
t
There are potential issues around, skills, competence and accreditation, particularly in relation to electrical safety.
t
Health and safety risks may come from the high-temperature operation of sulphur and zebra batteries, and high temperature and
gas pressure in gravel batteries. On one occasion, a  large sodium-sulphur battery installed at a  wind farm in Japan caught /f_ire.
t
Risks arise from compressed and lique /f_ied gases.
t
Compressed air energy storage (CAES) will have risks related to the integrity of pipelines and storage structures, and to the
associated mechanical equipment. Flywheel technology may also have risks associated with rotating mechanical equipment,
which — if released — could cause signi /f_icant damage.
t
Hydrogen gas is /f_lammable and easily forms an explosive mixture in air. There is a  very wide range of hydrogen-air concentra –
tions that will explode. Additionally, very low ignition energy is needed to ignite a  hydrogen-air mix. Methanol, which can be
used directly by fuel cells, is highly /f_lammable and toxic. LPG and methane, which can be converted into hydrogen using a  high
temperature catalytic reformer, often adjacent to the fuel cell, are also highly /f_lammable.
t
There are implications for safety from all elements of the hydrogen fuel chain from conversion of the primary energy source,
through to possible transport, storage and delivery stages, to use of the hydrogen for power generation.
t
In terms of CHP, currently, there is no accreditation scheme for the installation of CHP devices: this may cause a  problem if
electricity is exported back to the national grid, as this is likely to be beyond the training of most electricians. Additionally, as
hydrogen is prone to leak from systems, those working on CHP hydrogen systems will need to be retrained.
t
In addition to the hazards associated with hydrogen itself, the electrical safety implications of its use in fuel cells need to be
considered. Electrical hazards within fuel cell installations are from the 240  V mains supply and the electrical output of the fuel
cell stack: this can be between 100  V and 400  V, and 500  A.
t
Exposure to potentially toxic nanomaterials and other chemicals during the manufacture, maintenance, disposal and recycling
of hydrogen fuel cells, hydrogen storage systems, batteries and supercapacitors is a  risk.
Source: UK Health and Safety Laboratory Futures Team and additional sources (HSE, 2010b; Bradbrook et al., 2010; HSE, 2003; Littelfuse®, 2005; NGK Insulators, 2011;
Nearing, 2011).
OSH discussion for batteries and energy storage
The main thrust of the workshop was on batteries, with only lim –
ited interest in other forms of storage. Development of battery
technology was scenario-dependent, ranging from signi /f_icant
advances, through emphasis on specialist applications driven
by the need to cut costs, to reliance on behavioural change to
reduce the need for storage.OSH risks from batteries include:
t
exposure to chemicals, including nanomaterials, during
manufacture, use and recycling of batteries;
t
electrical risks to emergency services in EV accidents;
t
/f_ire and explosion risk from batteries in vehicles and in build –
ings — in particular, the possible reuse of aged vehicle bat –
teries in buildings; and

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
110 | EU-OSHA — European Agenc y for Safety and Health at Workt
use by untrained workers, or building occupiers in the case of
batteries used as building energy storage, without adequate
knowledge of the risks of large batteries.
Other forms of energy storage include hydrogen (considered in
Section  5.4.5); /f_lywheels, where a  risk is that of fracture of the
/f_lywheel; and compressed-air energy storage, where risks may
come from the integrity of pipelines. Electrical risks are, of course,
common to all these. There may be as yet unknown risks from
the interconnection of diverse combinations of energy storage
equipment.Note on limitations of OSH analysis
This is a  futures-based view of this technology. The issues consid –
ered above were based on a  single-day workshop with experts in
technology and/or OSH expertise as well as policymakers, with
the HSL desk research as brie /f_ing. The intention was to illustrate
the power of the scenarios method to broaden the discussion and
generate insights. This is not intended to be a  comprehensive
list of OSH issues.
5.4.9. Energy transmission and distribution
Comparison of technology developments across scenarios
Table 21: Technology developments: Energy transmission and distribution
Technology developments Win-Win Bonus World Deep Green
TransmissionCapacity constraints as energy use
grows
SuperSmart Grid across Europe to
balance supply and demandCapacity constraints as
energy use growsCapacity growth limited by
lack of funds for investment
Local focus for networks
Grid architecture Two-wayOne-way from central
generators to distributed
usersTwo-way: local demand
better matched to local
generation
Distribution networkLocal storage and smart meters
used to relieve local capacity issuesOverloaded network at
risk of blackouts
Aluminium cables
commonLocal distribution of locally
generated power
Active local demand
management
Biogas distributed via gas
network
Energy transmission and distribution in Win-Win
Technology and societal context
In Win-Win in 2025, there is a  new two-way electricity grid archi –
tecture. Supply is much more diverse with more renewables
instead of centralised fossil fuels to meet demand. This is backed
up with /f_lexible tari ffs, incentives to use EV batteries as local stor –
age, and smart meters to control it all.
The pattern of supply is highly complex, with changing genera –
tion and demand at multiple levels (transmission, distribution,
use) in the network.Smart meters controlling interruptible loads and local storage are
also used as a  stopgap measure to reduce the need to reinforce
the distribution network.
A SuperSmart Grid (SSG) using high voltage direct current (HVDC)
technology is now transmitting renewably generated electricity
over vast distances between points in North Africa, the Mediter –
ranean, and northern Europe.

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 111Workshop discussion on OSH — Energy transmission and distribution in Win-Win
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Live working in distribution networks
Live working in distribution networks (240  V to 50  kV) will grow with the repowering
of distribution networks and increased use of renewables and of storage. The
dangers of electric shock, burns, /f_ire and explosion are well understood, but will
involve di fferent people, in di fferent applications. The storage of electricity is a  new
dimension.
Safe working requires robust procedures (e.g. lock o ff, tag out, notices, and lock out),
all of which require training and experience.
The issue is the speed of change, with new applications with more services and,
consequently, the employment of new and inexperienced workers and trainees.
There will always be pressure to cut corners on OSH and to use inexperienced sta ff. All scenarios,
but most acute
in Win-Win and
Deep GreenGrowing issue
Blackouts
In Bonus World in 2025, the pro /f_it motive and the need to keep costs down leads
to a reduced margin of spare capacity, making blackouts more common. The risks
arise from sudden darkness and loss of power, especially with moving machinery, in
hospitals, and other life-critical situations. These are a  self-evident OSH issue.Growing risk in
Bonus World and
Deep GreenGrowing risks in
many areas of work
Workshop discussion on OSH — Energy transmission and distribution in Bonus World
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Aluminium cabling
As copper prices rise, other metals like aluminium are used for cables instead. In
reaction with the air, aluminium forms an insulating layer of aluminium oxide: these
have a  greater risk of joint failure and sparking than copper does and this can result in
/f_ire. This is a  particular risk, as seen in the United States in the 1970s when aluminium
cables were used for house wiring. This is likely to be a  growing problem in the long
term in Bonus World as copper reserves are used up and prices rise. All scenarios,
but greatest in
Bonus WorldGrowing risk
Novel solutions to capacity issues
There will be strong economic incentives to develop new ‘smart’ solutions to improve
the capacity of the distribution network without the huge investment of a  wholesale
upgrade. Squeezing more capacity out of the system means that there will inevitably
be less safety margin in the event of control system failure.Bonus World Possibility of new
systemic hazards
emerging
Electrical connection in wind farms between the towers and grid connection
points
In a wind farm, responsibility for the towers is fairly well de /f_ined, as is the premises
of the distribution network operator (DNO) where grid connection is made. The HV
distribution system outside the footprint of the tower that connects these is more
accessible, and responsibility is often less clear between the various subcontractors.All scenarios Not new, but
growing in scaleEnergy transmission and distribution in Bonus World
Technology and societal context
Energy use has grown. There is pressure on distribution networks,
and an urgent need for innovative smart solutions to avoid the
cost of wholesale upgrades. Interconnectors are still being built
but only where there is a  good business case.Copper prices have doubled since 2012 because of grid upgrades,
and the use of aluminium cables has become widespread. The
risk of blackouts is rising, but the political imperative is to keep
the lights on. National nuclear power programmes (cut back after
the Fukushima incident in 2011) have been reinstated.
Distribution monopolies have been broken up to promote
competition.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
112 | EU-OSHA — European Agenc y for Safety and Health at WorkEnergy transmission and distribution in Deep Green
Technology and societal context
The emphasis is on local distribution systems and localised pro –
duction. There is increased demand for small-scale storage, with
increased /f_low in both directions.
The pattern of supply is highly complex, with changing genera –
tion and demand at multiple levels (e.g. transmission, distribu –
tion, use) in the network. With lack of investment, these have led to an unreliable electricity supply with frequent brownouts
and blackouts.
In times of energy surplus, electricity is used to generate gas
(methane and hydrogen) as a  store of energy and as a  medium
to transport energy through the existing gas network.
The capacity of the transmission grid and the distribution grid are
being increased, to accommodate localised production, but low
levels of funds for investment is an obstacle to this.
Workshop discussion on OSH — Energy transmission and distribution in Deep Green
OSH implications within the scenario as identi /f_ied in the workshop Applicability Scope for new and
emerging risks
Control of the grid
It is di fficult to maintain top-down control of the grid as a  result of the new
distributed generation sources.Greatest in Win-
Win and Deep
GreenGrowing issue
Upgrading the grid
Major work will be needed to upgrade the existing grid, bringing electrical risks and
live working, and access issues. Highly trained workers will be needed. Life-extended
systems will have more risks than new ones.All scenarios Not new
Biogas
Storage and distribution of biogas brings risks of intoxication (e.g. from H2S) or of
suffocation, and of explosion. Quality issues, such as impurities, militate against
injection into the gas main.Greatest in Win-
Win and Deep
GreenEmerging risk
Complementary information from desk research and Phase  2 technology workshop on OSH issues for energy transmission and
distribution
Workshop brie /f_ing on OSH issues
The brie /f_ing material for the energy transmission and distribution workshop, based on desk research by HSL, as well as the discu s-
sions in the Phase  2 technology workshop (Section  4.3), highlighted the following OSH factors:
t
‘/f_lashover’ burns, falls and electrocution during the installation, connection and maintenance of new power sources;
t
risk of ‘ /f_lashover’ burns and electrocution owing to the increased need to work on ‘live’ systems as systems become more
complex;
t
construction and excavation risks during cable laying, substation construction and other activities (onshore and o ffshore);
t
risks from the installation, maintenance and use of smart meters: the estimated 200 million smart meters (Williamson, 2012)
to be installed in homes in Europe to 2020 will see an enormous increase in meter installers who may not all have electrical
installer quali /f_ications to the level of quali /f_ied domestic or light industry electricians; they may, therefore, put themselves and
occupiers at risk; they may not be able to certify the connections between the householder system and the new meter; there
are obvious areas of safety concern in blocks of /f_lats sharing a  common smart meter, both in terms of access controls, and
also the connection of a  smart meter to a  number of di fferent electrical installations with di fferent maintenance contractors;
t
electrical risks from self-built installations using cheap components: each component may be CE marked but there may be
safety issues when they are combined by unquali /f_ied people;
t
cyber security — risks from accidental or malicious interference with ICT control of networks; and
t
risks from interruption of supply to users with interrupted supply contracts.
Source: UK Health and Safety Laboratory Futures Team and additional sources (HSE, 2010b; Bradbrook et al., 2010; HSE, 2003; Littelfuse®, 2005).

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 113OSH discussion for energy transmission and distribution
The rate of development of the grid and its nature will be sce –
nario-dependent, ranging from a  fully functional two-way Europe-
wide system to a  more locally focused set-up.
The main hazards from the construction of a  SuperSmart Grid
(SSG) and infrastructure are electrocution, ‘ /f_lashover’ burns and
falls. These hazards will be present in activities such as the con –
nection and maintenance of new power sources; these hazards
will be more likely to occur as the SSG will be hugely complex, so
there will be much more ‘live’ electrical working.
There may be time pressures to build a  new SSG and associated
infrastructure to accommodate the huge future increase in Euro –
pean renewables, both large-scale and distributed. Time pressures
from governments or electric company deadlines, such as cut-o ff
dates for feed-in tari ffs, may lead to installation work being done
in a hurry with a  resulting risk of accidents or poor quality installa –
tion. Owing to the huge engineering task of building a  European
SSG, there will be large amounts of construction and excavation
carried out both on and o ffshore, along with the hazards and
risks associated with cable laying, substation construction and
other activities. These construction OSH risks include blasting/
explosion hazards, entrapment by tunnel or structure collapse,
being struck by heavy equipment and plant, working at height
and in con /f_ined (or hot) conditions, and MSDs. Tight deadlines,
physically strenuous work and long working hours may lead to
psychosocial risks to the workforce.
Large construction projects typically make extensive use of sub –
contractors. Given the huge scale of the task needed to construct
an SSG, multiple subcontractors are likely to be required. There
may be problems with maintaining OSH throughout the work
chain. With a  huge international project such as this, there is the
potential for language barriers and di fferent cultural attitudes
to OSH, which could lead to an increased risk of accidents. Given
the number of people required to build an  SSG, there is likely to
be a  shortage of skilled workers (particularly electrical engineers
and electricians). Hence, less-experienced or skilled individuals
may be used and this may lead to safety issues. There is also the
issue of confusion over which of the many contractors involved
with the SSG will be responsible for the maintenance of any given
grid interface in the system.
The sheer diversity and number of energy providers connected to
the grid and the complexity of the system will give rise to a  greater
number and wider range of OSH risks. For example, o ffshore wind
farms will deliver their electricity to shore by direct current (DC),
rather than the alternating current (AC) used by electricity grids.
DC current activities are more dangerous than AC activities and
there may also be electrical and /f_lashover burn risks at the DC/
AC interface. A  diverse range of microgeneration technologies
and local or community electricity generators, spread over huge
areas of land with millions of two-way connections to the grid,
means that a  vast number of people will be exposed to electri –
cal hazards, including local electrical engineers, maintenance
workers and the general public. Given the lack of experienced personnel in the future, these individuals are likely to be over –
stretched and required to work long hours: this will increase the
risk to their health as well as the risk of an accident, and may a ffect
the safety of the installation and grid connection. Psychosocial
risks are likely too.
The domestic and business end of the grid will be controlled
by smart meters; currently, there are few meters of this type in
Europe, so vast numbers will need to be installed across Europe
in the near future. For example, in the United Kingdom alone, an
estimated 48  million new meters will be installed over the next
5 years. It is very likely that there will be a  shortage of skilled
electricians to install smart meters and meter installers may not
have the required competence or accreditation to install them. It
is unlikely that all installers will be quali /f_ied to the level of domes –
tic or light industry electricians and will, therefore, not be able to
certify the connections between the building system and the new
meter. There may also be a  corresponding increase in the number
of unquali /f_ied ‘cowboy’ meter installers over the next decade.
This will expose both the worker and the public to the risk of
electrocution, burns and /f_ire. There are also safety concerns over
blocks of /f_lats and multiple occupancy work buildings sharing
a common smart meter, both in terms of access controls, and also
the connection of the meter to a  number of di fferent electrical
installations with di fferent maintenance contractors.
Note on limitations of OSH analysis
This is a  futures-based view of this technology. The issues consid –
ered above were based on a  single day’s workshop with experts
in technology and/or OSH expertise as well as policymakers, and
with the HSL desk research as brie /f_ing. The intention was to illus –
trate the power of the scenario method to broaden the discussion
and generate insights. This is not intended to be a  comprehensive
list of OSH issues.
5.4.10. OSH factors common across technologies
This section covers OSH factors that appeared in two or more
workshops, or were otherwise assessed as being applicable across
the technologies (Table  22).
OSH discussion of cross-technology issues
Cross-cutting issues are inevitably more general than those
concerning speci /f_ic technologies, but they are important, often
more so.
Skills and training
EU Member States have ambitious targets for environmental
improvement and the use of low-carbon energy sources. There –
fore, in any scenario, we are likely to see rapid growth in the use
of renewable energy technologies. It is established that workers
are more vulnerable in the early days in a  job. When we have
large numbers of people new to sectors, or people already in
a particular sector who must encounter changes, then risks may
be increased. The classic example is the case of gas /f_itters who

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
114 | EU-OSHA — European Agenc y for Safety and Health at Work/f_ind themselves working on roofs /f_itting solar thermal systems.
Alongside this, we are seeing growth in the numbers of new
entrants, such as small companies and sole proprietors who may
be subcontractors, inexperienced in the new technologies, and
for whom OSH issues may be more challenging. An example is in
the growth of biogas generation in methane digesters.
Economic and time pressures
While poor economic conditions exist, there may be pressure to
do things cheaply and an increasing tendency to subcontract
work. Additional factors such as feed-in-tari ff deadlines or EU
targets can add urgency to the installation of renewable energy
technologies. Cost-cutting and time pressures may have an
adverse e ffect on OSH, which tends not to be seen as a  priority
in these conditions.
Work-related psychosocial risks
Factors such as rapid innovation, the increasing complexity of
systems, the rising use of robots (especially those that interact
with humans), increasing automation, growing reliance on IT
and human-machine interface issues, increased shift working,
and increased remote working, possibly in a  context of eco –
nomic growth and increased job security, or of high competi –
tion depending on the scenario, all have the potential to have
psychosocial impacts on workers.
If the pressures lead to increases in the use of performance-
enhancing technologies, such as drugs, then other health impacts
may follow.
Health and safety risks from exposure to and use of new
materials
A wide range of novel materials, including nanomaterials, are
likely to be introduced and the health risks related to them may
not yet be fully known or understood. Increasingly, materials will
be customised for particular applications. An increase in the range
of these could mean that there is no such thing as a  standard
material, so setting standards will be di fficult. Where materials
are designed for a  particular application, it could be dangerous
if they are wrongly used for another.Examples of new materials include: composites; ceramics; new
nanomaterials; smart materials (e.g. piezoelectric, shape memory,
thermochromic, photochromic and magnetorheological). These
will appear in a  range of sectors, such as construction, manufac –
turing and waste processing. Also, new biological materials will
appear as a  result of developments in biotechnologies. We are
currently seeing genuinely novel materials being developed that
bring genuinely new risks. The biggest impacts may be exposure
at end-of-life through product degradation or waste processing.
In a world where people change jobs more often and a  job for life
is rare, there could be di fficulties in tracking exposure histories
without exposure registers or health surveillance in place, adding
to the risk of long-latency e ffects.
There is a  need for:
t
research on long-term e ffects of material use on health, thor –
ough risk assessment and initial testing before introducing
materials on the market;
t
exposure monitoring; and
t
making better use of existing information (e.g. there is already
a lot of information on biohazards of new materials).
Waste and recycling
Although this has been treated as a  technology in its own right
in this report, it cuts across a  range of industrial sectors. While
technological advances, such as robots that sort waste, could
make jobs in this sector safer by distancing workers from hazard –
ous materials, at the same time, technological developments in
other areas will constantly increase the range of materials and
devices and, therefore, hazards that have to be dealt with. This
could include a  wide range of customised materials or ‘one-o ffs’
with unknown properties that, therefore, present potential risks
to workers in waste management and recycling.
The extent to which any of the above issues are present and the
impact they have is likely to depend on the scenario, but it is likely
that they will all appear to some extent in any scenario.

Phase 3: Scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 115Table 22: Summary of OSH issues identi /f_ied as ‘cross-technology’
OSH factor:
Title and short descriptionApplicabilityScope for new and
emerging risks
New materials have the potential for major unexpected impacts
on health and environment:
t
nanomaterials
t
new insulating materials
t
new composites
t
smart materials
t
new organisms
t
biofuels and by-products.
There is a  real risk of long-latency hazards (e.g. carcinogens):
without exposure registers, diseases are di fficult to trace back to
jobs, as no one stays in the same job until retirement any more.Greatest use of new
materials in Bonus World,
but Win-Win has the
greatest innovation and
use of new materials within
green jobsNew risks
New occupational diseases
What will the health risks be from new materials, processes and
procedures in a  couple of decades’ time? All scenarios, but greatest
in the high-innovation
Bonus WorldScope for new physical risks
(e.g. new MSDs), as well as
chemical and biological
exposure
Diverse risks
Diverse risks that are di fficult to monitor and regulate from
decentralised renewable energy installations, including PV, micro-
CHP and biogas will emerge.All scenarios, but greatest
in Win-Win and possibly
Deep GreenNot new, but possibly
growing occurrence
Rapid innovation
Rapid innovation may lead to a  variety of OSH risks, with new
materials and new processes, and little time to learn how to use
them safely.Rapid innovation in
general in Bonus World,
but greatest innovation in
green jobs in Win-WinNew risks
Automation
Automation is most likely to be very positive for safety in the long
term, but absolute reliability is essential.Greatest in Win-Win and
Bonus WorldNew processes bring risk,
but automation is likely to
be positive for OSH
Human-machine and human-ICT interfaces
Human-machine and human-ICT interfaces can give rise to
complex risks (e.g. ergonomics and high cognitive load) and over-
reliance on ICT.Greatest in Bonus World
but also relevant in
Win-WinGrowing risks
Human performance-enhancing technologies (e.g. drugs,
implants, bionic limbs)
Evidence exists now of the increasing use of drugs by people who
are well, as a  means of enhancing concentration and performance
at work; dramatic developments in bionics and implants.High in Win-Win and
greatest in Bonus WorldHigh, across many sectors
and types of jobs
Stress and mental health
Stress and mental health issues seem likely, given job
uncertainties, increasing complexity and intensi /f_ication of work.Greatest in Bonus World Potentially growing issue
Unpredictable shift working
More unpredictable shift working owing to the intermittent nature
of renewable energy: unpredictable working hours and shift
working are known to have an impact on health and safety.
This depends on development of the grid and electricity storage
technologies.Applicable to Win-Win but
greatest in Deep GreenHigh

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
116 | EU-OSHA — European Agenc y for Safety and Health at WorkOSH factor:
Title and short descriptionApplicabilityScope for new and
emerging risks
End-of-life issues
Refurbishment, demolition, disposal, waste and recycling (e.g.
old wind farms not being repowered; it is required that wind
turbines be refurbished rather than replaced; demolition of recent
buildings with modern new materials in them; robotic disassembly
of manufactured goods; decay of PV panels and ex-EV batteries).All scenarios
Refurbishment greatest in
Deep GreenHigh
Emergency services
The emergency services will be confronted with various unknown
risks due to di ffering combinations of energy sources, devices, and
systems.Common to all scenarios Very high
Metal theft
Metal theft brings OSH risks to a  world where valuable
components are kept on the outside of buildings. Thefts of cable
could result in power cuts leading to safety risks as industrial
processes are interrupted and could leave live cables exposed.
This also brings risks to maintenance workers. Theft of other metal
items could similarly cause safety risks.Greatest in Bonus World,
with high prices and pro /f_it
motives. Risks occur in
many green jobsNot new, but growing risk
across many technologies
including wind, batteries,
and domestic energy
Government deadlines
Government deadlines give rise to unnecessary pressures to cut
corners resulting in less emphasis on OSH.Most immediate in Bonus
World, but applies to all
scenariosRelevant to OSH
policymaking
Subcontracting
Subcontracting can lead to cost-cutting, which, in turn, may result
in less emphasis on OSH issues.Greatest in Bonus WorldNot new, but growing scope
in Bonus World
Availability of skilled manpower
New technologies will need people with skills, and long timescales
are needed to achieve competence. In areas where expansion is
rapid (e.g. renewable energy), there could be a  skills gap. Workers
without su fficient skills and training may be at risk.Greatest in Bonus World
with the highest pace of
change
Most relevant to green jobs
in Win-WinGrowing issue with
implications for OSH
Ageing workforce
People are working longer so the average age of the workforce
is increasing and more people are working beyond state pension
age. This could be in response to the recession, reduced pension
bene /f_its or because they want to. Previously ‘older workers’ have
been considered to be those over 50. Relatively little research
has been done on workers over 65, so OSH risks particular to this
group are not well documented.Common to all scenariosGrowing potential for
OSH risks as workers age,
but there may be as yet
unknown consequences

6. Consolidation and testing
of the scenarios

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
118 | EU-OSHA — European Agenc y for Safety and Health at WorkThe scenarios described in Chapter  5 were tested in a  consolida –
tion workshop held in London, 7 and 8  March 2012. The workshop
was attended by the project team and a  range of policymakers,
technical and OSH experts invited by EU-OSHA.
The aims of the workshop were to: present the scenarios (in their
nearly /f_inal form); use the scenarios to test their coherency and
utility; revise and consolidate the scenarios with the feedback
received; demonstrate their use in supporting policymaking.
Imagery was used to present the scenarios and to help facilitate
the workshop discussion. This can be a  powerful tool to help
people ‘live’ the scenarios and explore elements within them.
Participants were allotted to a  single scenario for the duration of
the workshop. After a  short initial exercise to familiarise them with
their scenario, they were asked to undertake the following tasks:
1. identify the key OSH challenges and opportunities in each
scenario;
2. develop speci /f_ic policy options for each scenario to address
the respective challenges and opportunities, and explore how
they would be implemented; and
3. review the policies across the three scenarios and test their
relevance and robustness in each scenario (wind-tunnelling)
and how they would be implemented in each scenario.
6.1. OSH challenges
and opportunities
In order to provide the workshop participants with a  manage –
able quantity of information given the time constraints of the
workshop, 40 of the OSH issues identi /f_ied during the Phase  3
technology workshops were selected as source material for the
exercises. They were selected by the team as being most suitable
in order to give a  spread of issues judged to be signi /f_icant across
the technologies and sectors and to stimulate discussion with
this workshop audience of policymakers.
This selection suited the purposes of the workshop to test the
scenarios developed and demonstrate their use for policy devel –
opment but, for ‘real’ policymaking, all issues would need to be
taken into account. For other audiences or other purposes, it
may be appropriate to prioritise some other of the OSH issues
described in Chapter  5, or to use the scenarios to generate further
OSH issues as the technologies used in green jobs evolve over
time, and new risks emerge.
The 40 new and emerging OSH risks, challenges and opportu –
nities selected are now summarised. Some of these could be
expected in all futures; some will occur only in certain possible
scenarios. More detail on these issues is contained in the descrip –
tions in Chapter  5.Wind energy
1. Deep-water o ffshore sites
Here, the main issues are the scale of operations and the
distance from safe haven. This will get worse as wind farms
are developed in new and challenging locations open to the
ocean. Safe access for maintenance will also be an issue.
2. Size of the turbines
The biggest turbines (much bigger than anything installed in
2012) will have very high towers; installation involves lifting
very heavy loads with high aerodynamic resistance in some
of the windiest locations on Earth. The largest turbines will
need new turbine designs and assembly processes.
3. End-of-life and legacy issues
The OSH uncertainties revolve around the long term as
wind farms reach the end of their design life. Design action
is needed now to enable eventual safe dismantling or
refurbishment.
Construction
4. Automation of construction
The automation of construction through the prefabrication of
modules in factories and machine handling on site is an oppor –
tunity that potentially could be very positive for OSH. However,
while this could reduce the physically demanding manual con –
struction work, it would increase heavy crane-lifting tasks. There
are risks during the connection of services (water and electricity)
to the prefabricated modules but, with correct designs, these
should be negligible. Furthermore, there is a  possibility that
risks could be transferred from the construction site to the fac –
tory by way of new processes or new materials.
5. Retro /f_itting
Retro /f_itting of renewable energy technologies to old build –
ings leads to exposure to dust, lead, asbestos, and work at
heights. The lack of adequate ventilation in the case of ret –
ro/f_itting indoor insulation may be an issue, in particular as
this type of work may attract unskilled workers (or construc –
tion workers used to outdoor work, not aware of the need of
proper indoor ventilation). These are not new risks, but known
risks in new situations.
6. New construction materials
New construction materials (e.g. phase changing materials,
active surfaces, heat storage chemicals and new insulation)
could result in construction workers, installers and future
refurbishers being exposed to potentially harmful new
substances.

Consolidation and testing of the scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 119Bioenergy
7. Third-generation biofuels
The safety of third-generation biofuels and any by-products
and contaminants is a  potential issue. The variability of by-
products (like methanol in fermentation) will be a  particular
potential hazard.
8. Synthetic biology
Biohazards from new organisms and synthetic biology are
a new risk.
Waste and recycling
9. Zero-waste economy
Delivering a  zero-waste economy means dealing with the
most di fficult tail end of the waste stream in concentrated
form.
10. New materials
The release of new materials such as nanomaterials during
mechanical operations in waste treatment is a  signi /f_icant
future hazard. New risks are continually emerging in this area.
11. Robots in waste processing
The use of robots in waste processing, disassembly and recy –
cling would be highly bene /f_icial in OSH terms.
12. Growth in land /f_ill mining
As raw material costs increase, it will become economically
viable to recover material from land /f_ill sites, with potential
exposure to unknown materials.
Transport
13. Self-driving vehicles
Self-driving vehicles are potentially very positive for OSH,
although they bring the issue of their absolute reliability as
well as of the danger of over-reliance on the technology.
14. Electrical risks from EVs
High voltages in EVs lead to new risks for maintenance and
emergency workers. EVs and charging points bring risks of
electrocution, explosion or /f_ire.15. Two-wheeled vehicles
Increased use of two-wheeled vehicles with their green cre –
dentials for the transport of goods and people may lead to
more accidents.
Manufacturing and robotics
16. Uncaged robots
Intelligent uncaged robots working closely with humans are
a growing hazard.
17. Human performance enhancement
The health and safety implications of human performance
enhancement through robotics (bioautomation and implants)
is an area that may need active consideration by OSH
organisations.
18. Decentralised manufacturing
It will be more di fficult to enforce OSH in a  decentralised
manufacturing ecosystem (using /f_lexible systems, 3D print –
ing, etc.). Decentralised production may also mean smaller
companies, which may have a  weaker OSH culture.
Domestic and small-scale energy
19. Shared eco systems
Small clusters of households with their own shared eco sys –
tems (e.g. mini-CHP, biodigesters, and PV systems) are prob –
ably the least safe size for this sort of activity, with no central
authority or ‘keyholder’ responsible for safe operation.
20. PV
The widespread adoption of PV, when PV eventually reaches
economic viability, will bring growing hazards. Risks of elec –
trocution and falls from height during installation, mainte –
nance and decommissioning are always present, as is poten –
tial exposure to chemicals.
21. Distributed generation
Distributed generation gives rise to electrical risks as many
more sources of voltage can give rise to electric shock even
when the mains current is disconnected.
Batteries and energy storage
22. Hydrogen
As an energy store, hydrogen brings risks of explosion, leak –
age, cryogenic hazards. The use of hydrogen in homes is par –
ticularly risky (though this may not be a  strictly OSH issue).

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
120 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work23. New battery technologies
New battery technologies bring well-known risks including
electrical risks, toxic chemicals and /f_ire. There are severe risks
to the emergency services. The worst hazards may arise in sec –
ondary uses after batteries have degraded and are no longer
suitable for vehicles, for example, but still have a  value as
/f_ixed energy stores.
24. Bulk energy storage
In addition to hydrogen, a  range of potential storage methods
exists (e.g. compressed air, /f_lywheels, and supercapacitors).
Any complex mixture of these technologies may present
particular risks.
Energy transmission and distribution
25. Blackouts
It seems likely that, in the future, there will be an increasing
risk of blackouts. Blackouts lead to dangerous situations in
the workplace.
26. Complex grid
There will be di fficulties controlling a  complex grid (e.g. two-
way transmission, intelligent machines and appliances and
electricity storage issues). It is also expected that there will
be an increase in live electrical working.
Cross-technology (generic) issues
27. Metal theft
Metal theft brings OSH risks (e.g. because of the resulting
interruption in industrial processes or risks during repair oper –
ations) to operatives or to maintenance workers. This risk will
grow in a  world where valuable components are increasingly
kept on the outside of buildings. This is not new, but is a  grow –
ing risk across many technologies including wind, batteries
and domestic energy.
28. Availability of skilled manpower
New technologies will need people with skills, and long
timescales are needed to achieve competence. There is an
increased likelihood of polarisation of the workforce between
skilled and unskilled workers.
29. New materials
New materials have the potential for major unexpected
impacts on health and environment. Nanomaterials, new
insulation, new composites, new organisms, biofuels and
by-products potentially bring new risks. There is the risk of
long-latency hazards (e.g. with carcinogens) and diseases are
difficult to trace back to jobs: no one stays in the same job
until retirement any more.30. Subcontracting
Subcontracting in industry leads to cost-cutting, which may
result in less emphasis on OSH.
31. Government deadlines
Government deadlines (especially to qualify for green sub –
sidies with an installation deadline) give rise to unnecessary
pressures to cut corners, with a  risk of negative impact on
OSH.
32. Work-related stress
Work-related stress resulting in impacts on health seems likely
in some cases, as a  consequence of intensi /f_ication of work
and job insecurity.
33. Older workers
Demographic trends mean we must expect to see a  grow –
ing proportion of older workers in the workforce. This is an
increasingly important issue that will need to be addressed
across all OSH activities and is relevant to all technologies
and scenarios.
34. Decentralised installations
Diverse risks from decentralised installations will be di fficult to
monitor and regulate. These include, for example, decentral –
ised local manufacturing, electricity generation, micro-CHP
and biogas.
35. Innovation
Rapid innovation may lead to a  variety of OSH risks, with new
materials and new processes, with little time to learn how to
use them safely.
36. Automation
Automation and robotics are likely to be positive for safety
in the long term, but absolute reliability is essential and new
processes may bring new risks.
37. Human-ICT and human-machine interfaces
Human-ICT and human-machine interfaces can give rise to
complex risks (e.g. high cognitive load in monitoring and sur –
veillance work, and ergonomic load), and over-reliance on ICT.
38. End-of-life issues
End-of-life issues are a  recurring theme. They can arise during
refurbishment, demolition, degradation, disposal, waste and
recycling. Worker health and safety during future end-of-life
processing needs to be designed into products at their design
and development stage.

Consolidation and testing of the scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 12139. More unpredictable shift working
More unpredictable shift working owing to the intermittent
nature of renewable energy will bring risks as workers have to
adapt their circadian rhythms. Unpredictable working hours
and shift working are known to have an impact on health.
The size of this problem depends on the future develop –
ment of the grid and on electricity generation and storage
technologies.
40. Human performance-enhancing technologies
This includes principally pharmaceuticals, and there is evi –
dence now of increasing use of drugs by people who are well,
in order to, for example, boost concentration at work. In the
future, this will also include implants and bionic limbs as the
dramatic developments in these areas bear fruit. These will
bring a  whole new dimension to issues of liability and blame
for workers’ actions and behaviour.
6.2. Consolidation workshop
exercises
Exercise  1: OSH issues in each scenario
Delegates were asked to consider the list of 40 OSH issues for
green jobs. Working in scenario groups, they were asked to iden –
tify the /f_ive most important issues for their scenario  (11) and to
prioritise them according to which had the greatest impact and
which were most likely to occur. The prioritised OSH issues were
(11) In practice, two groups exceeded this number.to cover both technology-related and generic risks, plus at least
one opportunity. At the start of the exercise, a  check was made
for any gaps or omissions in the above, drawing on participants’
knowledge and the OSH data provided from the technology
workshops.
Table  23 shows which OSH issues were considered to be of high
priority in each scenario. The ‘ H’ symbol denotes which issues
were seen as high priority in each scenario. The pattern of Hs
shows that the high-priority issues varied greatly by scenario
(however, some issues might have been selected here in sce –
narios other than the one where they were /f_irst identi /f_ied in the
technology workshops as the participants were di fferent, and
they had very limited time to become familiar with the di fferences
between the scenarios and select the issues). This variability is
clear evidence to support the strength of the scenario method.
A foresight study that used a  single view of the future — e ffec-
tively a  single scenario — would only pick up on a  limited number
of these key OSH issues. The fact that di fferent scenarios lead to
different choices of priority issues, as in this workshop, demon –
strates their value in considering what the key OSH issues might
be in a  range of possible futures.
Comments generated in the workshop on the selected OSH
issues were fed back into the OSH analysis of each technology
and thereby used to consolidate the scenarios into their /f_inal form.
Exercises 2 and 3: Use and testing of scenarios by developing
priority OSH policies
In order to test the use of the scenarios produced and demon –
strate their value, the second and third exercises took the prior –
ity OSH challenges and opportunities from Table  23. Exercises  2
Table 23: Priority OSH challenges and opportunities by scenario
OSH issue  (*) Win-Win Bonus World Deep Green
Wind energy
3. End-of-life and legacy issues as wind farms reach the end of their design
life; design action needed nowH
Construction
5. Retro /f_itting of renewable energy technologies to old buildings leads to
exposure to dust, lead, asbestos, and work at heightsH
Waste and recycling
9. Zero-waste economy means dealing with the most di fficult tail end of the
waste stream in concentrated formH

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
122 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Workand 3 used them to develop policies to achieve the best possible
outcome for OSH in green jobs in each scenario in 2020. Novel
policies that related to the conditions in each scenario were
encouraged. The expected bene /f_its and implementation of the
policies were also considered, including supply and demand side
measures, any obstacles to be overcome, the resources required
and the timescale.
Exercises  2 and 3 also used the priority OSH challenges and oppor –
tunities to review the policies across the three scenarios to explore
their relevance and robustness in each scenario (wind-tunnelling)
and consider how the policies could be implemented in each
scenario.Policy development is a  complex process that requires sound
evidence and signi /f_icant analysis of options. In the time avail –
able, it was only practical to give initial consideration to a  limited
number of policies in order to demonstrate the value of scenarios.
Though OSH policy generation is beyond the scope of the project,
the results were of interest and are, therefore, included. The ensu –
ing OSH policy initiatives can be divided into two groups: those
that appear to have support in each scenario, and those that are
scenario-dependent.
The text in italic at the end of each of the following boxes
(Tables  24 and 25) indicates the discussion from the wind-tun –
nelling exercise.OSH issue  (*) Win-Win Bonus World Deep Green
10. The release of new materials during mechanical operations in waste
treatment; new risks continually emergingH H
12. Growth in land /f_ill mining, with potential exposure to unknown materials H
Transport
13. Self-driving vehicles are potentially very positive for OSH H
14. Electrical risks in EVs and charging points H
Manufacturing, robotics and automation
16. Intelligent uncaged robots working closely with humans H
18. OSH may be more di fficult to enforce in a  decentralised manufacturing
ecosystemH
Batteries and energy storage
21. Distributed generation gives rise to electrical risks even when the mains
current is disconnectedH
24. Bulk energy storage, especially in complex mixtures H
Cross-technology (generic) issues
28. Availability of skilled manpower H
29. New materials have the potential for major unexpected impacts on health
and environment; risk of long-latency hazardsH H H
32. Work-related stress resulting in impact on health H H
34. Diverse risks from decentralised installations that are di fficult to
monitor and regulate (e.g. decentralised local manufacturing, electricity
generation, micro-CHP and biogas)H
38. End-of-life issues: refurbishment, demolition, disposal, waste and recycling H
(*) Numbers refer to the listing in Section  6.1. Only those selected by workshop participants are shown in Table  23.

Consolidation and testing of the scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 123Table 24: Potential OSH policies supported within each scenario
Workshop discussion on potential OSH policies
Incentivise companies to research future OSH risks
Adopt measures to enable companies to better understand future OSH risks. Areas that need to be better understood include:
new materials; decentralised manufacturing; decentralised energy generation; and how to identify hazards in R  & D related to
green jobs.
This should be implemented by means of incentives for large companies to conduct research to understand OSH risks across the
life cycle of products, technologies and jobs and thereby to promote ‘OSH by design’.
Incentives should include tax breaks. Penalties for non-compliance would include naming and shaming, and loss of corporate
OSH accreditation.
This policy was developed by taking a  Win-Win perspective of the future. It was supported by the Deep Green team, where it was seen as
a potentially useful idea to incentivise companies; however, it was seen as too business-oriented and with not enough focus on citizens
for the Deep Green world. It was supported to a  lesser extent within the Bonus World view, even though there was a  risk that it was to
some extent based on wishful thinking.
Better OSH training in green jobs
This would encourage an OSH culture in green jobs, and lead to stakeholders being better informed and better protected against
emerging risks.
This policy can be implemented by:
t
making OSH a  mainstream element in education for all ages, with OSH apps, OSH games, and OSH on the curriculum;
t
developing, delivering and monitoring green OSH vocational-training schemes; and
t
providing information in a  timely manner (perhaps with a  green OSH database), tailoring information intelligently for the
recipient and ensuring that information can be accessed at all levels of hierarchies and across media technologies.
This policy was developed by taking a  Win-Win perspective of the future. It was supported strongly within the Bonus World view. It was
also supported by the Deep Green team, where some elements of the policy were seen as relevant, but the top-down approach and
absence of bottom-up information collection makes it incomplete and one-sided, with insu fficient focus on the societal dimension.
Life long education in OSH
Introduce a  programme of lifelong education and training in health and safety. This would include schoolchildren, university
students, workers, etc. For example, schoolchildren could be taught to do their own risk assessments for school trips. This should
be made part of the learning experience and preparation for adult life, rather than a  chore for the teacher.
The intention is that good OSH becomes second nature.
This policy was developed by taking a  Bonus World perspective of the future. It was supported strongly within the Win-Win view, but was
only weakly supported by the Deep Green team. In the Deep Green perspective, although seen as valid, it seemed to shift too much of
the OSH responsibility from companies to education, and the absence of the involvement of societal and business stakeholders makes it
a one-sided, traditional approach to education.
Table 25: Potential OSH policies that are scenario-dependent
Workshop discussion on OSH policies
Green OSH standards for industry
Develop a  set of clear green OSH standards for industry (so that ‘green’ also means safe and healthy, being compatible with good
OSH). Relate these standards to technologies, work processes, and new materials.
Implement with a  mix of legislation, industry-led good practice, and awareness-raising campaigns everywhere. Promote the idea
that green OSH standards are part of good corporate social responsibility (CSR).
This policy was developed by taking a  Win-Win perspective of the future, but was seen as di fficult to implement in Deep Green. Green
standards are not a  big issue in Bonus World.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
124 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkNote that the workshop was intended to validate the scenarios
and illustrate the strength of the method. We do not advocate
the adoption of any of the above OSH policies on the strength of
a single day’s workshop, but they do highlight areas that could,
and should, be explored further.
Even the policies that applied to just one scenario should be
explored further. Indeed, in some circumstances, it may be appropriate to implement a  policy that is only relevant to one
scenario, owing to the need to manage a  particular OSH risk. This
is an appropriate policy decision if it is important to avoid the risk
in question. It is also important to note the di fferent implementa –
tion issues across the scenario. This could also lead to adjustments
in the proposed implementation, or noting scenario dependence
and the associated risks.Workshop discussion on OSH policies
Globalise OSH
This would bring about worldwide improvements in OSH practice. Additionally, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) would need
to recognise poor OSH practices as a  legitimate factor in claiming unfair competition. This would mean that companies outside
Europe would not be able to gain competitive advantage by neglecting health and safety at work.
This policy was developed by taking a  Bonus World perspective of the future. It was seen as unfeasible in Win-Win where OSH standards
in Europe would drop from a  high current standard to average global level. It was similarly seen as unfeasible in Deep Green, where any
global dimension would be realised by pursuing a  global OSH culture and where global collaboration would be bottom-up and based
on voluntary agreements.
Internalise the costs of bad OSH practice
Introduce charges and /f_inancial penalties so that employers cannot externalise the costs of bad OSH practice. This would bring
recognition that good OSH pays for itself, and mean that taxpayers do not end up paying for the consequences of bad OSH.
The policy can be implemented by:
t
imposing strict liability on employers for work-related diseases and accidents (backed up by mandatory insurance in all EU
Member States) and making employers pay workers’ hospital bills for work-related injuries or ill health;
t
creating a  lifelong logbook or ‘passport’ recording workers’ personal exposure — in particular, to chemicals to ensure
traceability;
t
ensuring that OSH and environmental agencies work together; and
t
supporting the dissemination of good OSH practice that provides positive economic returns.
This policy was developed by taking a  Bonus World perspective of the future. It was seen as reasonably supported in a  Win-Win world,
but incompatible with a  Deep Green culture where economics is not the main argument for companies to implement good OSH: the
proposed approach did not take into account a  systemic view of the problem.
Holistic OSH policy
Institute one holistic policy to promote OSH through the following three aspects.
1. A bottom-up collaborative approach is required to create an OSH culture, through education and awareness-raising activities.
2. An integrated two-way approach (bottom-up and top-down) is needed to develop OSH intelligence. This includes research on
new and old risks, collecting and monitoring relevant problem-related data, as well as exploring new ways of transferring OSH
knowledge. This would contribute to developing a  better needs-targeted OSH agenda.
3. OSH can be brought more into the mainstream with a  strategy to support an OSH culture by applying OSH intelligence across
different sectors and professions.
The /f_irst aspect, a  bottom-up collaborative approach, can be implemented by means of the following:
t
making OSH fun to learn — innovative OSH education based on ‘edutainment’, using video games, for example;
t
raising awareness of OSH through participative approaches, such as TV/radio programmes that encourage the public to
report OSH issues and propose solutions, or reality shows that feature employers and workers solving OSH problems together
(this would both raise public awareness and generate public pressure on companies and authorities for the OSH case); and
t
introducing OSH awards with high-visibility media, and an o fficial label for recognition of good OSH performance.
The second aspect, an integrated two-way approach, can be implemented by means of the following:
t
coordinating issues requiring joint, large-scale responses; and
t
creating a  key role for national OSH strategies.
This policy was developed by taking a  Deep Green perspective of the future. It was seen as unfeasible in Bonus World (except, perhaps,
for some aspects of OSH intelligence) and either too slow or ine ffective in Win-Win (except for the OSH-mainstreaming element, which
is similar to a  Win-Win policy initiative, although successful implementation of this element in Deep Green would be bottom-up while it
would need to be top-down in Win-Win.)

Consolidation and testing of the scenarios
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 1256.3. Conclusions from the
consolidation workshop
The workshop aimed to: present the scenarios (in their nearly
/f_inal form); use the scenarios to test their coherency and utility;
revise and consolidate the scenarios with the feedback received;
demonstrate their use in supporting policymaking. The conclu –
sions drawn, therefore, concern these aims.
Policies
The objective of this policy workshop was to test the scenarios
for assessing OSH risks and policies. It would not be appropriate
to set policies on the basis of the discussion of the workshop as
more time would be needed to develop proper policy proposals.
More evidence would also need to be gathered (e.g. on the OSH
risks associated with any particular technology).
There were common policies across the scenarios, such as those
on education and training. However, it is important that the differences in implementation in the di fferent scenarios are noted.
OSH policies were also proposed that would only be appropriate
in one scenario, as shown by the ‘wind-tunnelling’ exercise.
In interpreting the ‘wind-tunnelling’, it is important not to assume
that the policy that seems to best apply to all scenarios should
be implemented. There may be good reasons why a  policy that
seems valid in one scenario only should be implemented. In this
case, the options for amending the policy to make it more broadly
applicable may be appropriate. Where policies are not adopted,
the information can be used to inform the future scanning for
risk and help inform risk registers.
The scenarios
The workshop demonstrated how scenarios can lead to a  broader
range of strategic discussions that will ensure more robust analy –
sis of future OSH issues. The workshop con /f_irmed the value of
scenarios as part of the toolkit for OSH policymaking. However,
it is important to remember that the value of scenarios comes
particularly from the discussion and insights generated.

7. Scenario presentation

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
128 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work7.1. Introduction to scenarios
The scenarios following combine the base scenarios (Section  5.3)
and the technology developments from the technology work –
shops (Section  5.4). Their use for the identi /f_ication of emerging
OSH risks and development of policy options to address these
was tested at the policy workshop, which is reported in Chapter  6.
Comments from the policy workshops were used to consolidate
the scenarios into their /f_inal form. The pictures illustrate some
OSH issues identi /f_ied in the technology workshops for each of
the key technologies.
This version of the scenarios is intended for use in future work –
shops or further exploration of emerging OSH risks. They all look
back from 2025 on the development of the scenarios. (The year
2025 was chosen rather than 2020 as in the project title, in order
to stretch thinking so that changes after 2020, the early signs of
which might be evident by 2020, would be included.)
7.2. Win-Win
High economic growth
Looking back from 2025, after a  slow start in 2012, growth across
the EU and OECD returned to the levels prior to the economic
crash of 2008. Developing countries also experienced high levels
of growth similar to the /f_irst decade of the century.
Strong green values
Advances in climate science started to show how vulnerable
we are becoming to climate change. Growing public concerns
encouraged governments to introduce green policies, including
policies leading to deep and progressive cuts in carbon emissions.
There was strong approval for green behaviour by corporations
and individuals. This was reinforced by concerns over resource
shortages (e.g. food, commodities, minerals, water and energy).High levels of innovation in green technologies
Green growth has increasingly been seen as vital for a  sustain –
able future. Corporate pro /f_its and access to /f_inance have sup –
ported high levels of investment in new business opportunities
and infrastructure. The rate of technological developments has
accelerated with high levels of innovation. A  high proportion of
the innovation has been aimed at achieving a  green outcome
and generating future pro /f_its.
Society and work
Most people in the EU now feel prosperous and place a  higher
value on the preservation of the environment, human life and
well-being. The strong economy allows governments to address
the increasing demands for welfare and to invest in education.
There is high employment and many new jobs and new products
are now being created in ever-shorter timescales, which can lead
to new hazards and risks if they are not designed with OSH taken
into consideration.
Win-Win OSH general
In a buoyant economy, funds are available for investments in OSH,
but the high pace of innovation and the rapid roll-out of new
technologies and new products, and the creation of new jobs
requiring new skills mean that a  wider population may face new
risks over shorter timescales. It is, therefore, important that OSH
assessments are undertaken early in the development cycle of
a technology or product so that the pace of development doesn’t
leave OSH behind. If preferences for self-reliance, holistic wellness
and self-care are translated to the OSH arena, the most e ffective
OSH interventions may be self-regulation, education and coop –
eration. The high pace of innovation results in skills shortages and
in a sectoral competition for quali /f_ied sta ff, eventually leading to
a polarisation of the workforce with regard to skills.
Economic growthHolistic human development
Green valuesStrategic investment & rebuilding
Green innovation
Green = growth = prosperity
Other innovation
New frontiers and new applications Cartoon 1: 'Win-win' – context

Scenario presentation
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 129
'Every day we
continue to
re-design the
human-machine
interface…'
'Welcome to the L.Z.C.
Safety & Health @ Work
training module. Today
we look at everyday
hazards…''We scored 8 out of 10
in the last green audit…
how can we do even
better next time?'
'I guess every smart
grid needs a call centre
but it’s still pretty
stressful'Cartoon 2: 'Win-win' – human systems
Wind energy
The target of 230  GW of installed capacity in 2020 (EWEA, 2012)
was met. Now, in 2025, good progress is being made toward the
target (for 2030) of 40 0 GW of installed capacity.
Improved manufacturing techniques and new monitoring and
control processes have helped to contribute to safer operations.
There are now large turbines of up to 20  MW. Large turbines have
been designed speci /f_ically for the marine environment, including
for installation in deeper o ffshore locations.
The foundations in shallower water have improved and the
innovations in deeper water have included /f_loating installations.
Accommodation platforms have also started to appear in wind
farms further o ffshore. The risks are multiplied manyfold in o ffshore wind farms,
which have the potential to become highly dangerous
worksites. With so many large turbines in ever-deeper
water, ever further from safe haven, access issues are the
dominant OSH consideration. Working sites are more widely
dispersed, with lower pro /f_it margins to pay for safety than
in the oil and gas industries. Construction is hazardous and
with the large numbers of turbines come skill shortages
as wind competes with other technologies for qualified
staff. Specialist vessels are required to handle large tur –
bines in deep water, and there are still issues over foun –
dation strategies (especially as the seabed is di fferent for
each turbine in a  wind farm), transport of foundations from
yards, and longer-term issues over removal of foundations.
'Delta Charlie to Base… I repeat… Storm
force winds are forecast… Returning to
the accommodation platform…''I wish the Green Job Policy Team was
here. They would then appreciate the
challenges of working on these large
turbines in this environment'Cartoon 3: 'Win-win' – wind energy

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
130 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkNovel turbine designs have brought engineering unknowns.
In the hostile environment, maintenance is demanding,
although more reliable electronic infrastructure monitor –
ing devices help to minimise unpredicted maintenance and
improved quality of equipment has helped reliability. The
need for workers to live so far o ffshore is leading to work
organisation issues and psychosocial problems. New com –
posites and nanomaterials used for the manufacture of wind
turbines have possibly introduced new health hazards for
workers in manufacturing, maintenance, decommissioning
and recycling.
Green construction and building retro /f_itting
New buildings are zero-carbon, with heat stores, and built to at
least Passivhaus standards (Passive House Institute, 2012), with
low levels of energy consumption, and comprehensive instru –
mentation and monitoring. Hyperinsulating materials (e.g. aero –
gels and nano-lattice structures) have been developed, and are
in increasing use. Every part is designed to be disassembled and
recycled.
Modular prefabricated buildings, with modules pre- /f_itted with
services, are now the norm.
There is a  high level of activity to reduce the carbon footprint
of the existing building stock. This includes external insulation,
facilitated by advances in spray foam insulation.
Buildings interact amongst themselves and the smart grid. PV is
integrated into buildings or painted on and provision is made for
charging electric cars and using them for energy storage.The o ff-site and automated construction of modular build –
ings has improved on-site safety as far fewer tasks are now
undertaken on site. However, as building moves into fac –
tories, new risks emerge as workers are exposed to novel
substances increasingly used in construction material (e.g.
phase change materials, heat storage chemicals, novel sur –
face coatings, nanomaterials and /f_ibrous composites).
On-site issues arise from mixing automated with traditional,
manual activities. There are risks during the connection of
services (e.g. water and electricity) to the prefabricated mod –
ules but, with the correct designs, these should be negligible.
There are also electrical risks as old and new buildings have
to be integrated into the smart grid, incorporating smart
appliances, energy storage technologies, etc. In increasingly
crowded cities, the trend of developing basements has led
to increasing underground congestion with associated OSH
implications due to working in con /f_ined spaces, risk of col –
lapsing structures or drilling into existing cabling.
Combinations of new energy sources in buildings (e.g. pho –
tovoltaics, geothermal and biomass) bring new hazards and
unexpected accidents — in particular as there are many new
players entering the sector.
With a  high level of new build, there is a  large quantity of old
building materials from demolition to deal with, exposing
workers to hazards. Retro /f_itting of existing buildings exposes
workers to increasing roof work as they install solar panels
and small-scale wind turbines, with the risk of falls and expo –
sure to lead and asbestos as they disturb old structures.
'Construction ?? It’s all "prefabrication"
these days. Much less manual work.'
'Yeah, look at this one, carbon epoxy
/f_ibre laminated cement extrusion, with all
services installed. Just hope the "plug and
play" water and electricity connections
are clearly labelled.' Cartoon 4: 'Win-win' – construction

Scenario presentation
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 131Bioenergy
Legislation has been passed to support the objective of a  zero-
waste economy.
Biogas production has developed over the last decade and 20  %
of gas in the mains is now biogas.
Most agricultural waste is biodigested anaerobically to produce
methane. Waste water is used for its nutrient content to fertilise
biogas production.
Bioenergy is produced in large facilities (of 400  MW) and small
CHP plants in towns.
In most cases, biomass is heat treated to dry it and increase its
energy density before transport. The energy embedded in munici –
pal waste and manufacturing processes is now recovered.
Second-generation biofuels, produced with genetically modi /f_ied
bacteria, are now common in transport; and third-generation
fuels have been developed.
The storage and handling of biomass expose workers to
physical, chemical and biological risks and to risks from /f_ire
and explosion. High temperatures, and sometimes high
pressures, are used in pyrolysis (350–550  °C) and gasi /f_ica-
tion (over 700  °C). There is also a  potential issue with the
increased variability in the composition of gas derived from
biomass compared to fossil fuels. Third-generation biofuels
have the potential to give rise to new biological risks. There
may also be operational risks associated with the scaling-up
of third-generation biofuel production from demonstration
plant to commercial scale.With widespread adoption of bioenergy, many workers are
potentially at risk. Agriculture increasingly turns to biomass
production and work in forestry is likely to intensify. Waste
products from biomass can be toxic (e.g. wood ash contains
heavy metals and is strongly alkaline).
Waste management and recycling
The objective is zero waste and 70  % of industrial waste is now
recycled. There is a  market for by-products that would otherwise
be treated as waste: ‘Your waste is my feedstock’. Society adopts
a whole life cycle ‘cradle to cradle’ approach to production that
minimises waste.
Regulations require the use of recycled materials over new materi –
als wherever possible. New types of material and products (e.g.
plastic bamboo composites and high-pressure pressed plastics)
are only introduced if there is a  system available to treat them
at the end of the life cycle. Building codes encourage new con –
struction materials and the manufacture of concretes from waste.
Land /f_ill is expensive and greatly reduced, and existing sites are
now mined to recover useful material.
All metals are recycled and rare earth elements are recovered.
Automated sensing of waste items improves to the point that
robotic disassembly of discarded items is becoming the norm.
Techniques such as gasi /f_ication and pyrolysis are used to extract
energy from waste streams. Aerobic composting is replaced by
anaerobic digestion, as it reduces the loss of embodied energy.
As a  result of these measures, the use of raw materials per unit of
GDP is now many times lower than it was in 2012.
'Well, according to the
diagnostics, there should be
no problem. The automatic risk
assessment shows 99.99% safe…
But something isn’t right…''So …. Have you thought about:
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VOLOPXOT hCartoon 5: 'Win-win' – bioenergy

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
132 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work
'Our automated waste
recovery extraction
and intelligent re-use
technology is the best
available…''But how do we know if
new kinds of hazardous
waste are getting into
new kinds of places?' Cartoon 6: 'Win-win' – waste
The political pressure to recycle means that workers are
potentially exposed to a  very large range of materials:
increasing volumes of waste result in di fficulties in identi –
fying the provenance and composition of waste. However,
improvements in labelling, tracking and auditing materials
are helping in the identi /f_ication process.
Workers have to deal with hazardous waste, not just valuable
waste, including material from urban mining and recycling of
industrial waste. Nanomaterials are also increasingly appear –
ing in waste as their use in manufacturing becomes more
widespread. However, the increasing use of robots to sort and
handle waste helps to improve workers’ health and safety.
The zero-waste economy entails dealing with the most di ffi-
cult tail end of the waste stream: such wastes in concentrated
form are hazards that need special handling.
Green transport
New cars have become mostly electri /f_ied with fully electric city
runabouts. For long-distance use, plug-in electric hybrids with
efficient biopetrol and biodiesel engines have become the norm.
This has been supported by the development of:
t
rapid recharging (at a  rate of 50–100  kW);
t
intelligent congestion charging;
t
control technology for platooning on motorways (closely-
spaced vehicles following each other automatically); and
t
new materials to keep the weight and energy consumption low.
The few remaining non-electric vehicles use biofuels or gas,
though some use hydrogen.The self-driving ability of vehicles has become progressively more
widely available. This evolved through subway trains to suburban
trains to trams to buses and, /f_inally, to cars on motorways. There
is now increasing acceptance of cars in towns. The minimum
requirement for motorway automation was for the vehicles to
drive along the motorway and be able to stop and park safely if
the driver did not take control again at the end of the automated
section.
Elsewhere, small city delivery trucks, and public transport (includ –
ing buses) are electri /f_ied. Multimodal road-rail freight transport
is now used for long distances.
ICT systems allow people to make informed choices about when
and how to travel with maximum convenience and minimum
energy consumption and e ffective video-conferencing systems
have reduced the need for business travel.
Maintenance of complex networks coupled with skills
shortages presents an important OSH challenge. Most new
vehicles are electric or hybrid. Rapid recharging or battery
swaps may present hazards, as will maintenance of electri /f_ied
vehicles. As electric vehicles are increasingly maintained by
independent garages rather than specialists, there are elec –
trocution risks since workers are not familiar with the high
voltages involved. Risks of /f_ire or explosion are particularly
high during quick charging of EV and after accidents. Driver –
less vehicles and platooning (the grouping of vehicles that
behave e ffectively as one) have improved safety for those
who travel as part of their work. However, there is a  risk of
over-reliance on the technology. Absolute reliability is there –
fore absolutely crucial, with fail-safe modes in the event of
accidents, problems or failures.

Scenario presentation
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 133Green manufacturing and robotics
Manufacturing has been transformed by the high levels of inno –
vation, mass customisation and /f_lexible manufacturing systems,
such as 3D printing. High levels of automation mean that many
processes are performed within autonomous manufacturing cells.
Intelligent robots now collaborate between themselves and
work closely alongside humans. Bioautomation, which combines
humans with robotics and materials, has started to move from
healthcare applications (e.g. addressing disabilities) to the work –
place with a  view to boosting workers’ performance.
Sustainable design has become the prevailing philosophy, with
whole life cycle assessment of products and processes. Many
new materials and nanocomposites used are lighter, with better
performance, and with a  lower carbon footprint. Products are
designed for eventual dismantling.
There is now more distributed local production within integrated
supply chains. Even with the high levels of automation and self-diagnosing equipment, high levels of skills are still required.
There are always opportunities for highly skilled personnel.
Increased automation has improved OSH in some respects,
by removing workers from some hazardous tasks. At the
same time, however, the growth in the use of collabora –
tive uncaged robots has introduced other potential risks.
Increasing complexity and increased use of ICT in automated
manufacturing has brought human-machine interface issues.
Some types of robot malfunction may be di fficult to detect
until it is too late and may, therefore, put workers’ safety at
risk. Growth in ‘just-in-time’ and ‘lean’ approaches facilitated
by /f_lexible manufacturing systems have put additional pres –
sure on workers, leading to psychological risks. Workers are
resorting to enhancement technologies in order to keep pace
with developments and with their colleagues as well as with
robots. There are potential unknown long-term health e ffects
of new green materials and nanocomposites with a  lower
carbon footprint.
'Do you think this new
“platoon” technology is
going to be totally safe?' 'How safe is safe? … At
least I can catch up on my
e-mails whenever I want' Cartoon 7: 'Win-win' – transport
'Now that robots or “co-bots” do
most of the work…. What’s there to
worry about ???'
'Boredom … insecurity … Keeping up
with innovation … And, what if they do
not keep out of our way…' +++ THIS HUMAN HAS
A POOR TRAINING
RECORD+++ KEEP
HER UNDER ACTIVE
SURVEILLANCE +++Cartoon 8: 'Win-win' – manufacturing

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
134 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkDomestic and small-scale renewable energy
Companies and individuals have invested heavily in alternative
energy technologies in response to high energy prices. Govern –
ment incentives also encouraged these investments.
Smart meters are now installed in all homes and small business
premises. They are used to monitor and manage smart appliances
and electricity demand in response to the requirements of the
grid and the price of electricity.
Companies with roof space for PV and yard space for turbines
generate energy as a  secondary business. Farms and companies
working with organic materials (e.g. leather and foodstu ffs) gener –
ate wind, solar, biogas, and biodiesel.
Domestic buildings and offices have solar panels and highly
efficient fuel-cell combined heat and power systems. Many also
have small ground-sourced and air-sourced heat pumps. New
buildings are being built with a  high thermal mass to store heat
for typically /f_ive days of hot water.
The speed and diversity of change has resulted in skills short –
ages and, therefore, competency issues regarding renewable
energy technologies. There are many new energy technolo –
gies where speci /f_ic knowledge is needed but has not yet
been fully developed, and where ‘old’ OSH knowledge and
safe working practices are not always directly transferable.
New entrants to the industry are not always su fficiently famil –
iar with the risks and new combinations thereof. SMEs are
increasingly using their land to produce electricity as a  side –
line and may use their own workers, or subcontractors, to
install or maintain their renewable energy systems ad hoc,
although they are not skilled in this type of work. Increas –
ing adoption of solar PV has introduced risks for emergency
workers accessing roof spaces that remain live even after the
mains supply has been cut.Batteries and energy storage
The increase in renewable energy generation has led to the need
for high-capacity energy storage. For transmission networks, sev –
eral bulk energy storage solutions have proved practical, and are
being progressively implemented: large-scale molten salt storage
systems, such as sodium sulphur batteries (50  MW). Other battery
technologies for energy storage include /f_luorine and vanadium
/f_low batteries. Experiments are continuing with deep-sea energy
storage.
Connections across Europe and upgrades in capacity mean that
European hydroelectric systems are able to supply all of the Euro –
pean electricity demand for several days at a  time.
On the smaller distribution network scale, micro-compressed air
energy storage, battery storage, compact thermochemical stor –
age, and /f_lywheels are used.
Domestic-scale battery energy storage is also now common as
‘retired’ electric vehicle batteries are used as static energy stores.
Hydrogen has grown in popularity as an energy carrier,
including its use as a  fuel for vehicles, bringing transport
and storage issues. Batteries are the main means of electricity
storage, with potential risks of /f_ire and explosion, exposure to
hazardous chemicals and electrocution from high voltages.
Based on their experience from lead-acid batteries, people
generally have a  false perception that new batteries are safe.
As for large o ffshore installations, speci /f_ic OSH regulation is
in place for deep-sea energy storage, which, although a  rela-
tively low-tech concept, involves high voltages and power
levels in a  complex environment complicating installation
and maintenance work.
Cartoon 9: 'Win-win' – energy systems
Larger scale wind
turbine arrays seem
to be everywhere
Homes combine
hi-tech systems
with natural cycles
and materials Large e fficient
generators and
storage are part of a
diversi /f_ied energy mix
Smart grid solutions
optimize
supply / demand,
/f_lows and capacities

Scenario presentation
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 135Energy transmission and distribution
Following all the changes to energy generation and managing
demand at transmission and distribution levels, energy supply is
now highly complex. There are two-way grid architectures with
/f_lexible tari ffs, incentives to use storage, and smart meters to
control it all.
A SuperSmart Grid (SSG) using high-voltage direct current (HVDC)
technology is now transmitting renewably generated electricity
over vast distances between points in North Africa, the Mediter –
ranean, and northern Europe.
The complexity of the SSG makes it di fficult to maintain top-
down control of the grid and, consequently, of related OSH
issues. The key OSH risk arises from increased live working to
cope with the rapid pace of change. The dangers from elec –
tric shock, burns, /f_ire and explosion are well known, but now
involve di fferent people in di fferent situations. The increase
in electricity storage is an added dimension. The pressure
to get work done can lead to the use of inexperienced sta ff. 7.3. Bonus World
High economic growth
Looking back from 2025, after a  slow start in 2012, growth across
the EU and OECD returned to the levels prior to the economic
crash of 2008. Developing countries also experienced high growth
similar to that of the /f_irst decade of the century. High growth has
led to high prices for natural resources, including energy.
Weak green values
After 2012, economic growth was the priority and some envi –
ronmental degradation was considered to be an unavoidable
consequence of strengthening EU economies. When faced with
the costs, people have not valued greenness su fficiently for gov –
ernments or business to have an incentive to deliver it. Govern –
ment support for green practices is limited to charging for the
visible externalities of production (noise, pollution, land /f_ill, tra ffic
congestion, etc.).
Medium innovation in green technologies (directed towards
pro /f_its)
Most consumers and businesses choose green products and
services only if they are better or cheaper than the alternatives.
Innovations in green technologies are limited to those areas that
show a  positive /f_inancial return.
High total innovation
There are continuing advances in technology that are adopted
into new products and processes. High levels of capital invest –
ment mean that capital-intensive technologies can be rolled out
quickly. Corporate pro /f_itability and access to /f_inance have sup –
ported high levels of investment in infrastructure. The environ –
mental consequences of increased use of resources are seen as
acceptable and necessary.
Economic growth
Heading for the sky
Green values
Negative outlook Green innovation
Only where pro /f_itable Other innovation
Hi-tech business is boomingCartoon 10: 'Bonus world'- context

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
136 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkEnergy sciences continue to deliver improvements in e fficiency
and low-carbon energy, but it is now clear that serious and unac –
ceptable compromises would be needed to achieve a  zero-carbon
future.
Society and work
Most people in the EU now feel more prosperous than in 2012.
They value economic well-being more than the environment; but
are prepared to pay for a  pleasant environment around where
they live.
Businesses are focused on generating current and future prof –
its. New jobs are being introduced at a  relatively fast rate and
there are high levels of employment. There is also high mobility
of workers and inequalities mean that low-skilled workers are
readily exploited.
Higher income levels and corporate pro /f_its have provided the tax
revenues that allow European governments to pay for sustainable
welfare programmes.
Human performance-enhancing drugs are being routinely used
in work settings.Bonus World OSH Overview
In a healthy economy, funds are available to invest in OSH and
make infrastructure and business processes safe, but OSH is
of relatively low importance to most governments. Employers
see OSH as important in terms of its impact on pro /f_its.
New jobs and new products are bringing new hazards, and
the rapid roll-out of new technologies means that a  wide
population is exposed to them with short timescales for
determining their possible health and safety impacts.
OSH by regulation is more e ffective than OSH by education.
As in Win-Win, there are skills shortages associated with the
high pace of innovation. This leads to a  polarisation of the work –
force with regard to skills, with less-skilled workers more readily
found in jobs with poorer, more hazardous working conditions.
Wind energy
High economic growth and resource scarcity have pushed up
energy prices to the point that, in favourable locations, wind
energy can generate electricity at a  cost that is comparable with
other sources of supply.
Most new wind farms are onshore and many are located nearer to
the areas of highest demand. Planning rules and environmental
impact assessments have been relaxed permitting more wind
farm locations in built up areas.
There are no subsidies or green tari ffs to support the development
of more expensive wind farms. When this support was withdrawn,
'Drilling at 4000m is
easy… no-one can see
anything, so you just
get on with it'
'They call this the
graveyard shift – 7pm
to 7am … lucky we’re
allowed to go to the
toilet at midnight''You seem to
have good job
satisfaction… it also
pays for the new
sports car'
'We’re freezing in
here… Would love to
invest in e fficiency
but that would
reduce this year’s
pro/f_its'Cartoon 11: 'Bonus world'- human systems

Scenario presentation
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 137there was a  rush to develop wind farms before the deadline. Old
wind farms are decommissioned, as repowering would not be
economically viable.
Turbine design has focused on cost-e fficiency, including low-cost
maintenance. The very largest turbines envisaged in 2012 were
never built, and the industry is now mainly installing turbines of
between 5  MW and 7  MW. Standard designs based on common
design platforms (like some models of car) and innovative main –
tenance regimes have helped to reduce costs.
With smaller turbines, predominantly onshore, construction
and maintenance are not as hazardous as in the other two
scenarios, although the proximity to population centres brings
potential risks to a  larger population, including workers. Much
of the maintenance work is contracted out, so it is more dif –
/f_icult to keep an eye on work organisation and there is a  risk of
passing of blame and no due diligence by the ultimate owner.
Cost pressures may lead to increased risk-taking. Many of the
workers are migrants with low skills and a  poor OSH culture.
The decommissioning of old wind farms that were not
designed to enable safe dismantling puts workers at high
risk. New composites and nanomaterials used in the manu –
facture of wind turbines have possibly introduced new
health hazards for workers in manufacturing, maintenance,
decommissioning and recycling. On the plus side, the use
of standardised designs has reduced complexity and made
maintenance more straightforward.
Green construction
There is a  high turnover of building stock, and ostentatious
designs are common. Most new buildings are prefabricated
modular designs with services pre-installed. There is increasing
automation in new building, assembly, and retro /f_itting.In response to high energy prices, high levels of insulation have
become the norm. New buildings now have built-in PV to pro –
duce energy, with PV tiles (incorporating new PV technologies)
for retro /f_its.
Buildings are not designed for recycling and waste goes to land –
/f_ill. Contaminated waste is exported, or mixed with clean waste
streams.
Subcontracting is used to drive down costs, leading to pressures
on subcontractors to cut corners.
The o ff-site and automated construction of modular build –
ings has improved on-site safety as far fewer tasks are under –
taken on site. However, as building moves into factories, new
risks emerge as workers are exposed to novel substances.
On site, there are electrical risks as old and new buildings
have to be integrated into the smart grid, incorporating smart
appliances, energy storage technologies, etc. In increasingly
crowded cities, the trend of developing basements has led
to increasing underground congestion.
With a  high level of new build, there is a  large quantity of
building materials from demolition to deal with. Compared
with Win-Win, newer buildings are being demolished expos –
ing workers to new hazards from modern materials. Demoli –
tion waste is sent to land /f_ill rather than recycling. Retro /f_itting
of existing buildings exposes workers to increasing roof work
as they install solar panels, with the risk of falls and expo –
sure to lead and asbestos as they disturb old structures. The
lack of adequate ventilation when retro /f_itting insulation has
become an issue, as this type of work may attract construc –
tion workers who are used to outdoor work and, hence, not
aware of the need for proper indoor ventilation.
' … relaxed planning
rules allow large energy
companies to put turbines
on apartment blocks…''Think about the pro /f_it we
will make with these…
they could not be more
cost e ffective'Cartoon 12: 'Bonus world'- wind energy

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
138 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkBioenergy
There is plenty of waste to harvest for its energy content, and it
is incinerated where it is pro /f_itable.
Biomass sources (e.g. forest and agriculture, and agricultural
waste) are used through the most cost-e fficient route. Coal, natu –
ral gas and oil-powered stations persist, supplemented by many
small-scale localised biofuel and biomass CHP generating plants.
Second-generation biofuels (liquid fuels and chemical feedstocks
from lignin and cellulose) became common, aided by rapid inno –
vations in genetic modi /f_ication (GM) and synthetic biology.
High energy prices encourage third-generation biofuels, includ –
ing technology transferred from medical biotechnology.Methane digesters and pyrolysis are used to generate biogas.
As with Win-Win, storage and handling of biomass exposes
workers to physical risks, to chemical and biological risks,
and risks from /f_ire and explosion: these may be mitigated
by automation. Even where biomass is handled automati –
cally, the boilers it fuels are a  source of smoke and dust. With
small subcontractors working under cost pressures, work has
intensi /f_ied with a  resulting increase in risks. Third-generation
biofuels produced from organisms created by synthetic biol –
ogy are a  potential source of biological risks.
'Hey, this tube of sealant
says “extremely toxic and
hazardous” … So why are we
not using a safer one?''You better keep quiet if you
want to keep your bonus…'Cartoon 13: 'Bonus world'- construction
Cartoon 14: 'Bonus world'- bioenergy
'So, any idea what’s in silo
number 2 today?''No idea… But we got to get it out of
here before the morning shift'

Scenario presentation
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 139Waste management and recycling
The EU is a  high-consumption, throwaway society. There are lots
of innovative new products, which are not generally designed for
recycling. Waste streams are only seen as a  resource if they can
be sold to someone.
Waste processing is driven by the high prices of energy and raw
materials and the lack of space for land /f_ill. Some waste is sorted
automatically, but only where automation is cheaper than manual
labour. High-value waste is recycled and the energy in dry waste
is recovered.
Large volumes of waste go to land /f_ill, where it is treated as a  future
resource for mining and biogas. Households pay for waste by vol –
ume, leading to the use of domestic compactors, incinerators and
digesters, to save waste charges.
With a  high level of innovation, but a  lack of attention to
recyclability, the waste-handling process can be dangerous.
There is some use of automation for handling waste, but only
when it is cheaper, rather than for OSH considerations. The
rapid rate of innovation means that new materials appear
and /f_ind their way into waste before OSH can be considered.
This is a  throwaway society, so a  high number of workers are
involved in handling waste and are, therefore, potentially
exposed. In an increasingly complex world driven by pro /f_it,
combined exposure can be an issue. High charges for waste
disposal may lead to more in-house e fforts by the waste pro –
ducer to deal with waste, transferring risks from professional
waste operators to the waste producer: for example, busi –
ness owners (including microenterprises and SMEs, as well
as private individuals) may use small-scale digesters, waste
compactors or incinerators.Green transport
Over the last decade, the demand for transport has continued to
grow across all modes. Congestion in the air and on the roads has
increased, despite congestion pricing and road charging.
EVs are sometimes used as city runabouts, but hybrids comprise
the largest proportion of new vehicles sold. There is a  signi /f_icant
demand for fossil fuels for transport and the high cost is an incen –
tive for more e fficient transport solutions.
A market has developed for batteries removed from EVs and
hybrids: they are used for energy storage in buildings.
Urban trains and trams are now mostly fully automated.
As with Win-Win, maintenance and recharging of electric
vehicles have become important hazards as these activities
have become increasingly widespread and work has moved
away from specialist suppliers and maintainers to independ –
ents. The risks arising from the growth in electric vehicles is
not con /f_ined to the vehicle itself. Vehicle batteries that have
reached the end of their life for vehicle service are being used
to store electricity in buildings. As well as the normal /f_ire and
explosion risks associated with batteries, there is, therefore,
the added complication of batteries used for energy storage
that are degraded, decaying, unlabelled and of unknown
provenance and design. Automation of vehicles is proving
to be positive for OSH of drivers, although there is an issue of
over-reliance on the technology. The technology needs to be
absolutely reliable with fail-safe modes in case of incidents.
Cartoon 15: 'Bonus world'- waste
'Have you thought about
investing in automated
land /f_ill resource extraction
and recovery?''Who needs to invest in
automation when you’ve
got all these cheap
workers?'

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
140 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkGreen manufacturing and robotics
There are high levels of overall innovation and many new materi –
als (including nanomaterials); in addition, automated and robotic
processes are being used in production. Biotechnology is increas –
ingly used in manufacturing.
Over the last decade, mass customisation and /f_lexible manu –
facturing systems (e.g. 3D printing) have changed the industrial
landscape, with distributed local production within integrated
supply chains. The economies of scale of mass production have
been preserved, even with batch sizes of one.
Most jobs are knowledge-based and subcontracting is an integral
part of the process.
As in Win-Win, increased automation has improved OSH by
removing workers from some hazardous tasks, but with e ffi-
ciency — rather than safety — as the goal. At the same time,
the growth in the use of collaborative robots has introduced
other potential risks. Increasing complexity and increasing
use of ICT in automated manufacturing has brought human-
machine interface issues, but in the high-pressure environ –
ment of Bonus World, workers are turning to performance-
enhancing drugs and technologies in order to keep up.
Safety (as opposed to health) is increasingly engineered into
processes, driven by the desire to avoid lost production time,
while employers are less interested in longer-term health
issues. Decentralised manufacturing systems such as 3D
printing or other rapid manufacturing techniques can lead
to new groups of workers being exposed to manufactur –
ing hazards (e.g. harmful dusts, chemicals or laser light) yet
not being adequately trained to deal with them. There may
be new occupational diseases caused by exposure to new
materials. Without exposure registers, diseases are di fficult
to trace back to jobs as no one stays on the same production
line for their entire career any more.Domestic and small-scale renewable energy
After 2012, there was increasing public opposition to the costs
of renewable energy. Feed-in tari ffs were cut back, so there has
been limited investment in domestic and small-scale energy over
the last decade. ‘Horror stories’ of poor people being forced to
upgrade their domestic wiring after the electricity meter was
taken out also led to strong reactions against smart meters.
With increasing energy costs, insulation has become increas –
ingly important.
Network operators encourage some distributed generation,
but only in particular areas as a  means of saving on the costs of
upgrading the network.
In the period before solar PV reached grid parity, the sud –
den withdrawal of subsidies led to panic in the rush to meet
deadlines, resulting in work done in a  hurry thus introducing
OSH risks including work-related psychosocial risks. The use
of cheaper imported products, sometimes of poorer qual –
ity or even counterfeit products, has led to increased risks,
especially when installation is carried out by new entrants
to the sector or by householders themselves.
Cartoon 16: 'Bonus world'- transport
'Yes these ex-car batteries should be /f_ine, no service
record but never had any problem…'
'No need for guarantees…
I just need 20 units for the
home system'

Scenario presentation
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 141Batteries and energy storage
The grid has maintained its substantially one-way architecture,
with most electricity still provided by large generators. Due to the
limited level of intermittent and distributed generation, there has
been limited investment in bulk energy storage on the transmis –
sion networks. The exception has been pumped hydro facilities
for load balancing, to avoid the cost of upgrading the networks.
Storage applications on the distribution networks are specialised
and limited. Some energy storage (e.g. /f_lywheels, ultra capacitors,
batteries, compressed air and hydro) is used in the network for
load balancing and to avoid the cost of upgrading the network.
There are also /f_lywheels and supercapacitors for specialised public
transport applications.
Power cuts are a  greater risk due to limited investments in smart
grids and storage facilities. Small capacity storage, such as banks of former EV batteries, are therefore of increasing interest. Domes –
tic PV systems are also designed to provide some electricity if
there is a  power cut.
Vehicle development has favoured hybrids, so their energy stor –
age requirements are limited.
Novel battery designs continue to appear, bringing potential
risks from chemicals, carcinogenic metals, dusts, /f_ibres, nano –
materials and /f_ire. The waste treatment of batteries raises
issues around recycling, degradation and /f_ire risk. It is di fficult
to determine the precise contents of any particular battery
type as this information is often treated as a  trade secret.
Batteries used as energy stores in buildings are a  hazard as
people don’t recognise the risks of overcharging. Hydrogen
is used as an energy carrier but it is di fficult to handle and
there are risks of /f_ire and explosion and risks from its cryo –
genic liquid form.
Cartoon 17: 'Bonus world'- manufacturing
'Hello – how may I
help you??'
'I’ll have a Zpad 4.2 … in
lime green and purple …
and a cup of co ffee while
I wait please'
(….I used to work just in
retail… Now I am expected
to be a manufacturer as
well. I just press the buttons
and hope it is OK! )
Low cost fossil fuel
extraction
Large energy
intensive housing
and transport Short term
industrial systemsCheap and dirty
fossil fuel energyCartoon 18: 'Bonus world'- energy systems

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
142 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkEnergy transmission and distribution
There continues to be significant growth in the demand for
energy. There has been insu fficient investment in the transmis –
sion and distribution networks and smart grid infrastructure: the
need for investment is now a  major issue.
There has been investment in interconnectors, where there is
a strong business case.
Since 2012, copper prices have doubled and the use of aluminium
cables has increased. Metal theft has become an important con –
cern in the energy sector and more broadly.
There are risks from power cuts as cost pressures have led
to a  reduction in spare generating capacity. The risks arise
from sudden darkness and loss of power, especially with
moving machinery, and other safety-critical situations. The
pressure to squeeze more capacity out of the system leads to
novel solutions, but this reduces safety margins. Substitution
of copper cabling with aluminium, again driven by cost as
copper becomes increasingly expensive, has introduced an
increased risk of sparking and joint failure.7.4. Deep Green
Low economic growth
Since 2012, there has been little economic growth within the EU
and some countries are still facing sovereign debt problems. The
BRIC countries have not returned to their former high growth
rates and are currently growing at about 5  % per annum. Other
developing counties are growing at a  rate broadly in line with the
growth in their populations.
Strongly green values
Green values have strengthened over the last decade and there
is widespread and strong approval for green behaviour by corpo –
rations and individuals. This has given governments a  mandate
to legislate for deep and progressive cuts in carbon emissions.
Reduced growth is seen as a  price worth paying for a  green future.
Advances in climate science have shown just how vulnerable the
human race will be to climate change. There are growing public
concerns about the loss of ecosystems and resource shortages.
Medium innovation in green technologies (directed toward
greenness)
The concerns about a  green future have driven progress on
improvements in e fficiency and the target of a  zero-carbon future.
There are continuing advances in technology, but restricted levels
of capital investment mean that capital-intensive technologies
have been slow to be rolled out. Commercial success depends on
having appropriately green products and services.
There have been significant local small-scale innovations to
address green issues, many directed toward self-reliance.Cartoon 19: 'Bonus world'- resource limits
' … thieves will do
anything to get a bit of
copper and zinc out of the
vehicle charging point.'
'The problem for us is you don’t
know which are the live wires'

Scenario presentation
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 143Energy sciences continue to deliver improvements in e fficiency
and low-carbon energy, but it is clear that serious compromises
will need to be made to achieve a  zero-carbon future.
Medium levels of total innovation
The priority has been to direct innovation towards achieving
a green future.
Society and work
Over the last decade, the key priority has been to move towards
a green future, at the expense of growth and other social objec –
tives. As a  result, there is now higher unemployment and lower corporate pro /f_its. The reduced tax base has restricted the ability
of EU governments to pay for increasing welfare demands.
The greening of the economy and society has introduced many
new processes and enterprises, creating new green jobs. Busi –
nesses are focused on survival and reducing costs, and work –
ers are concerned about joining the signi /f_icant number of the
unemployed.
Innovation continues to deliver improvements in e fficiency and
reduced carbon outputs but it is clear that serious compromises
need to be made to achieve a  zero-carbon future. Despite the
difficulties, a  green future is generally seen as worth the sacri /f_ices.
Economic growthMoney is not top priority
Green values
Abundance & diversity
Green innovation
For a green future
Other innovation
Not a priority in itselfCartoon 20: 'Deep green'- context
'Solar panels are great
because they are
‘green’ … You don’t need
skills or quali /f_ications,
just get up there and
do it'
'Everybody loves this
green bicycle delivery
service… but the
trailer gets heavier
and heavier''Welcome to
the community
wind energy
cooperative …'
'We can power the
/f_irm on these out-of-
date ELV batteries…
Remind me – is it the
yellow or blue wire
to white?'Cartoon 21: 'Deep green'- human systems

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
144 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkDeep Green OSH general
Low economic growth has tempted employers to cut cor –
ners, making investment in safer and healthier infrastruc –
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more local and smaller enterprises (in particular micro –
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QHZKD]DUGVDQGULVNV7KHUHDUHPDQ\QHZJUHHQSUR –
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Wind energy
Despite the strong green values and political support, the lack
of capital has constrained the development of wind energy. The
total installed base in the EU has recently passed 100  GW. Few
of the deeper o ffshore sites that were envisaged in 2012 have
been built.Over the last decade, projects have tended to be smaller, with
in/f_ill developments. Most turbines are relatively small: between
3 MW and 5  MW. The latest designs have converged on direct
drive generators and transformers in the nacelle.
The priority of the remaining big wind energy players is to drive
down costs and minimise the investment needed to deliver wind
energy. ‘Make-do-and-mend’ attitudes have encouraged own –
ers to refurbish older wind farms rather than rebuilding them.
Furthermore, as the technology has improved, 1  MW turbines
have been replaced with 3  MW installations on the same towers.
End-of-life issues and maintenance are the key OSH consid –
erations. The economy requires the upkeep of older installa –
tions and there is pressure to keep systems running whatever
the weather. Older wind turbines have not been upgraded
with safety or ergonomic features, such as lifts, because of
cost pressures: as a  result, the physical risks associated with
climbing and working in towers have become signi /f_icant,
especially as increasing numbers of older workers are unable
to retire.
Green construction
There has been limited construction and the building stock has
changed little since 2012. Any construction has been deeply
green and uses a  high proportion of recycled materials.
Householders have been forced to retro /f_it homes to new stand –
ards, with some subsidies, but mostly at their own expense.
Government regulations and controls enforce energy consump –
tion limits, including heating and cooling, in buildings.
'Look at that turbine – way beyond its design life !!
We can only get refurbished spare parts these days…'
'It is exhausting to spend all day
climbing up these old turbines without
lifts… I wish we had new ones'Cartoon 22: 'Deep green'- wind energy

Scenario presentation
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 145With relatively little new build, the main risks to workers
come from exposure to new materials during refurbishment
and the handling of waste from refurbishment (including
asbestos), and from the retro /f_itting of renewable energy
technologies, involving work at height and electrical con –
nections to the grid. Retro /f_itting will also expose workers to
dust and hazardous chemicals. The lack of adequate ventila –
tion may be an issue, in particular as this type of work may
attract unskilled workers, including ‘do-it-yourself’ installers,
unaware of the risks.
Bioenergy
There have been big changes in the ways in which energy is
sourced and waste is managed. The energy content is recovered
from all local waste that is not recycled.
Local procurement is important, with local biogas from land /f_ill.
There is increased use of local community biofuels and biodiesel.
Animal fats and food waste are used as heavy fuel oils.
Biomass production and the associated land use has increased
over the last decade. There has been little spillover from high-
value biotechnology but green biotech has cut costs and
increased the energy intensity of crops. Some former coal power
stations have been converted to burn biomass. The risks from /f_ire and explosion and exposure to chemicals
and biohazards are similar to those in the other scenarios,
but the emphasis on local production and use — with many
small-scale producers — creates risks that are more di fficult
to regulate. New players, less familiar with the risks of han –
dling fuel (e.g. farmers producing low quantities, or compa –
nies starting to use their own waste as an energy source, for
example in the textile or food industry) may be particularly
at risk. There may also be problems with the quality of their
products and therefore safety issues, as well as the impact
on gas network pipelines from biogas or syngas not meeting
the required gas speci /f_ication.
Waste management and recycling
Waste volumes have signi /f_icantly reduced and are less hazardous
as products have longer life cycles and are designed for sustain –
ability and recycling. Waste is also seen as having value: ‘Your
waste is my resource’.
Waste streams are dealt with locally, with very limited use of land –
/f_ill. Plastics, metals, and textiles are recycled, with jobs available
in collecting, sorting and recycling waste. Laws now mandate
the full recirculation of nutrients and energy recovery, and land –
/f_ill sites are mined for their resources. Hazardous waste is still
incinerated.
Overall, waste volumes are down as a  result of strong green
values and the economic situation, but there is still legacy
waste to deal with and levels of construction waste from
refurbishment are high. There is an emphasis on local han –
dling of waste at the small-scale — meaning a  potentially
Cartoon 23: 'Deep green'- construction
'This “retro- /f_it photo-voltaic”
programme is a job for life!'
'Just mind out for the unknown
substances and /f_ibres in your lungs… Or
else you could just slip in the rain & fall
off the ladder /f_irst.'

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
146 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Worklower OSH culture and more di fficulties in controlling OSH risks
in a decentralised system — and there is a  high manual compo –
nent, with a  relatively low level of automation. The quality of the
waste stream has improved, but land /f_ill mining is increasing as
the costs of raw materials climb, so workers risk being exposed
to safety hazards as well as unknown health hazards. Greater use
of biomass in this scenario brings exposure to dust, allergens
and other toxins. Reused items may compromise safety and
health (e.g. steel made from recycled metals containing lead).
Green transport
Over the last decade, the growth in travel has slowed and, in some
cases, travel has reduced. People only travel when necessary, and
use virtual meeting places whenever they can. There is increased
use of subsidised public transport.
There are some electric cars, but the majority of vehicles still use
internal combustion engines. The Green way is to make better use
of existing vehicles and prolong their working life. Retro /f_itting of
efficiency measures, such as stop/start ignition and low-resistance
tyres, is widespread.Road-rail intermodal transport has become the norm for the
reduced levels of long-distance freight.
For urban travel and delivery, there are increasing numbers
of electric bikes and vehicles, recharged from local renewable
energy sources.
As in Win-Win and Bonus World, the maintenance and charg –
ing of electric vehicles are key OSH concerns. However, driven
by the need to economise and by strong green values, there
has been an increase in two-wheeled vehicles for personal
transport and goods as well as for service deliveries, exposing
those who travel for their work to the risk of injury and accidents.
Many ‘mobility self-entrepreneurs’ have seen a  job opportu –
nity in this growing area of the transport sector. The downside
of this is that the self-employed tend to have a  weaker OSH
culture and less access to OSH services, such as OSH medical
surveillance, labour inspectorate services. Furthermore, they
are generally not covered by worker protection legislation.Cartoon 24: 'Deep green'- bioenergy and waste
'Your waste is my resource …
but these wheelbarrows get
heavier and heavier…''HEY – wish we knew what
is being put in here!'
'There’s no vehicle that can’t
be repaired… That is, if you
give it enough love…' 'If you can’t get the spare
parts, you can always bend
some metal into shape…'Cartoon 25: 'Deep green'- transport

Scenario presentation
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 147Green manufacturing
Over the last decade, there has been an increasing level of ageing
manufacturing plants and industrial infrastructure, coupled with
limited investment in automation.
Longer product life cycles and less consumption of mass-pro –
duced goods have reduced the demand for manufacturing. Some
offshore production has returned to the EU.
There is more decentralised point-of-need manufacturing, much
of which has low /f_inancial margins. There are innovations to
reduce the use of energy and materials in ways that only require
low levels of investment.
There is a  strong focus on decentralised maintenance and repair
and reuse: ‘make-do-and-mend.’
There has been less adoption of automation than in the other
scenarios, so old OSH issues may persist as manufacturers
make do with ageing infrastructure and machinery. The
increasing tendency to outsource maintenance services to
small companies has increased risks to maintenance work –
ers who have to deal with a  wide range of equipment when
extending the life of these items. The intermittent nature of
renewable energy means that shift working has increased,
resulting in increased health and psychosocial issues and
other risks such as accidents. Exposure to new materials in
SMEs and microenterprises involved in decentralised point-
of-use manufacture has brought potential exposure risks
to more workers in less well-controlled OSH conditions.
Process integration means that industrial processes previ –
ously performed in di fferent locations (e.g. manufacturing
and recycling) are brought together, increasing the range
of risks on a  single site. This requires new skills and technical
knowledge. However, there is a  lack of skills as manufacturing
is brought back into the EU as a  result of global changes, and
the loss of corporate memory and experience is exposing
new workers to risks.Domestic and small-scale renewable energy
Over the last decade, there has been a  signi /f_icant increase in local
small-scale energy generation: increased taxes on large generat –
ing companies using nuclear power and fossil fuels have made
this cost-competitive.
There is signi /f_icant use of biogenerated energy resources. There is
also a  wide mix of technologies including biogas digesters, local
hydroelectricity, waste incineration and domestic CHP.
There has been a  trend for both businesses and local communi –
ties to generate energy, often using non-standard ‘do-it-yourself’
systems, built with parts from various sources.
A diversity of distribution systems and non-standard instal –
lations is resulting in electrical risks to maintenance workers.
The combination of technologies (e.g. combined heat and
power (CHP) and solar thermal) is adding to the complexity
and, therefore, the risk. Similarly, unsophisticated, perhaps
do-it-yourself, domestic installations are also potentially
hazardous. Small-scale bioenergy generation gives rise to
risks of /f_ire and explosion and exposure to toxic substances.
Distributed supply, especially from small clusters of houses
or small businesses, is di fficult to regulate. The emergency
services are at risk when they attend non-standard installa –
tions. Emerging technologies generally may be responsible
for long-latency e ffects, yet to emerge.
Batteries and energy storage
The surge in biogas and biomass energy production has led to
high levels of storage of harvested biomass as an energy reserve.
Battery developments have been constrained by concerns about
the use of toxic materials and the need for them to be recycled.
The growth in electric vehicles has also been slower than antici –
pated in 2012. Vehicle batteries are used for static storage after
their peak performance has degraded.
'Today it’s plasma TVs – very
hi-tech…. Tomorrow, washing
machines and hoovers. Day
after… Radios and alarm clocks.''Yeah right – who needs the
latest model when you can
/f_ix anything you want?' Cartoon 26: 'Deep green'- manufacturing

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
148 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkIn times of energy surplus, electricity is used to generate gas
(methane and hydrogen) as a  store of energy and as a  medium
to transport energy through the existing gas network.
‘Virtual storage’ has been implemented through measures being
taken to match energy supply and demand. However, this has
been made di fficult by the diverse, localised energy providers
and the relatively slow roll-out of smart meters.
Batteries give rise to electrical risks and risks from toxic
chemicals and /f_ire. Greener batteries may be more hazard –
ous as environmental regulations limit the range of materi –
als allowed. The variety of interconnected systems of tech –
nologies and devices for energy storage, especially those
assembled by do-it-yourself enthusiasts, bring unexpected
risks in themselves, and to maintenance workers as well as
emergency services. Hydrogen is used for energy storage,
introducing /f_ire and explosion risks and risks from its cryo –
genic liquid form.Energy transmission and distribution
There has been a  lack of funds for investment in the electricity
transmission network, which has become less reliable.
There has been greater emphasis on distribution systems. The
complex network of localised energy production has led to
increased bidirectional /f_lows. The diverse range of energy sup –
pliers at multiple levels has made control of the network increas –
ingly di fficult.
As a  result of restricted levels of investment and increasing levels
of localised energy product, the reliability of the electricity supply
has reduced.
OSH issues include the di fficulty in maintaining top-down
control of the grid as distributed generating sources increase.
Major work to upgrade the grid has been undertaken, intro –
ducing increased live working. Life-extended systems bring
more risks than new systems. Biogas distribution has brought
risks of intoxication, su ffocation, explosion and quality issues.
Cartoon 27: 'Deep green'- energy systems
Local bio-gas
with livestock
management
Autonomous
housing with
micro-generationIntegrated
industrial ecology
systems Bio-mass
landscapes with
community power
generation

Scenario presentation
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 1497.5. Using the scenarios
Michael Porter de /f_ined scenarios used in strategy as ‘an internally
consistent view of what the future might turn out to be — not
a forecast, but one possible future outcome’ (Porter, 1985). It is
important that these scenarios are not treated as forecasts, as it
is likely that in 2020 the EU will not be entirely like any of these
scenarios as such; however, there will be elements of all three
scenarios across the EU in 2020. It is not possible to predict which
elements of each scenario will be dominant at that time.
The scenarios are a  tool to help people think about a  broader
range of futures and manage the associated uncertainties. This
can lead to a  better understanding of potential future OSH risks
and strategies to ensure the best possible future outcomes for
OSH. Scenarios can also be used to challenge the ‘o fficial’ view of
the future that often includes signi /f_icant assumptions on issues
that are uncertain but is generally the viewpoint on which policy
development is based. Scenarios provide a  ‘neutral’ space (the
future) removed from the constraints of the present for strategic
discussion, including reviewing existing plans and policies.
The scenarios produced in this project are principally intended
to be used in a  workshop setting as was the case in this project.
There are many types of scenario workshop processes that can
be used. The value of using scenarios comes from the strategic
discussions and the insights generated, so it is important that
these are captured, whatever workshop process is used. Imagery
in the form of ‘visual thinking’ was used to present the scenarios
(Sections  7.2, 7.3 and 7.4) and to help facilitate the workshop
discussions. Visual thinking can be a  powerful tool to help people
‘live’ or immerse themselves in scenarios and explore the pos –
sibilities that lie beyond normal boundaries and assumptions.
Using the scenarios outside the focal question of this
project
The three scenarios developed in this project are designed to
explore future OSH challenges and opportunities associated with
new technologies in green jobs by 2020.The scenarios produced
may also have a  potential value for assessing new and emerging
OSH risks for a  broader range of jobs than green jobs, but care
needs to be exercised in doing so. The area that would need to
be changed most in this case would be the drivers of change
speci /f_ic to green issues.
There are other technologies alongside those /f_inally selected in
Phase  2 that may have a  signi /f_icant impact on OSH in green jobs:
these scenarios can be used without adaptation to analyse these.
One approach would be to follow the process adopted for the
Phase  3 technology workshops. The results of this could then be
added to each base scenario.
Note that the technologies used in green jobs will evolve over
time, and new risks may emerge from these. After some years, it
may be more appropriate to use the base scenarios produced in
this project to generate another set of pathways of technology development, and identify associated potential new OSH issues
that will be more current and more relevant to the audience of
that time.
Use for future risk analysis
It is important that foresight is used to determine new and emerg –
ing OSH risks. If the risk assessment is just based on current data
and trends, important future risks will almost certainly be over –
looked. The advantage of using scenarios is that they challenge
people’s perceptions of the future and enable a  more robust
assessment of the full range of risks, particularly if the risks are
new ones. A  common concern when using scenarios (and other
foresight techniques) is how to compare insights from them with
risks for which there are objective current data. The tendency
is to assign a  higher priority to risks for which there are current
data, and a  lower priority to risks anticipated through foresight.
Looking backwards at how the risks have evolved over a  similar or
longer period can help to inform the judgement required for such
an assessment. High-quality scienti /f_ic advice is also an important
requirement for assessing the respective risks.
These scenarios can be used in workshop settings similar to those
described in Section  5.4 to explore the future OSH risks associated
with green jobs.
Use for policy development
These scenarios can also be used to determine how risks can best
be managed against an uncertain future, including exploration
of the best policies to be adopted. Policy is frequently driven by
an accepted ‘o fficial’ view of the future. This is based around the
things that are known now and assumptions about the future.
Policy development often begins with analysis of the current
issues and a  review of options to deliver agreed targets of busi –
ness plans. By using scenarios to develop policy, the changing
environment in which the policies will be implemented and
the associated uncertainties over the period in question can be
addressed. A  common approach for scenario-based policy devel –
opment is to consider the respective challenges and opportuni –
ties in each scenario. Since the mechanisms for achieving good
OSH outcomes are di fferent across the three scenarios, this can
encourage greater policy innovation and will generally result in
a broader range of policy options than a  more traditional policy
review will provide.
Using scenarios to develop policies should, therefore, result in
a wider range of more robust policies with lower associated risks.
It is very common for organisations to have blind spots on policy
opportunities, or a  resistance towards certain policy directions.
In our experience, using scenarios is an e ffective means of over –
coming these obstacles, which in most cases organisations are
not aware that they have.
Use for policy analysis
The three scenarios can be used to test both existing and potential
policies, including those developed within the scenarios. A  common
approach is ‘wind-tunnelling’, where policies are tested against

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
150 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Workeach scenario, both to see if they achieve the desired bene /f_its and
to test the implementation plans. This enables the robustness of
policies to be tested against di fferent scenarios and di fferent routes
to the best future outcome to be explored. It can also create an
environment for an open debate on the policy options in which
assumptions about the future can be tested and challenged. The
‘wind-tunnelling’ process was used in this project at the policy work –
shop to test and re /f_ine the scenarios, as described in Chapter  6.
Use for stakeholder engagement
This project has considered the implications of the scenarios
for the EU and national governments, trade unions, employer
associations, employers and workers. The OSH implications for
these and other stakeholders will be di fferent across the three sce –
narios. There will be di fferent winners and losers in each scenario
and there are also wide variations within stakeholder groups.
For example, in Bonus World, there are good opportunities for
skilled workers, while the least skilled are liable to be exploited.
The scenarios can be used for stakeholder impact analysis, which
considers how the di fferent scenarios will impact on each relevant
group of stakeholders. These can be groups, or individuals, who
are likely to be a ffected by the scenarios. This process helps to
understand the perspectives and possible responses to di fferent
circumstances or policies.
Scenarios can also be a  valuable tool for engaging stakeholders.
This can lead to stakeholders having a  greater recognition of the issues and a  shared understanding of the options for addressing
the issues. It is often easier for stakeholders with di fferent view –
points to discuss issues and to understand each other’s positions
within the relatively safe, neutral environment of a  future scenario,
than in the present as part of their normal business interaction.
Scenarios can, therefore, also assist in reaching a  consensus. This
process is similar to the application of scenarios to con /f_lict resolu –
tion, such as the Mont Fleur scenarios developed in South Africa
during 1991–92 in the midst of a  deep con /f_lict (GBN, undated).
Given the potentially very di fferent perspectives of OSH across
the di fferent stakeholder groups, the three scenarios produced in
this project can be used to assist with consensus building.
Use for organisational strategy
Like stakeholders, different organisations will face different
opportunities and challenges across the three scenarios. Strate –
gies to maximise success can be developed for each scenario and
tested against the other two scenarios. Current business plans can
also be tested against all three scenarios to determine how robust
they are in a  range of di fferent futures. Then, either the plans can
be modi /f_ied to make them more resilient to di fferent futures or
the risks in the plan can be better understood so that they can
be monitored and managed. This approach is similar to that for
policies described above. In many cases, scenario analysis of an
organisation’s strategy results in a  signi /f_icant change in direction
for the organisation, or reallocation of its resources. A  case study
and further description of the use of scenarios in organisational
strategy can be found in Ringland et al. (2012).

8. Conclusions

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
152 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work8.1. New and emerging
challenges for OSH
in green jobs
‘Green jobs’ is a  generic term encompassing a  broad range of jobs
in di fferent sectors, with di fferent working conditions and work –
ing processes and involving a  diverse workforce. The scenarios
developed in this project have shown that these aspects also vary
with the socio-economic context and the strategies and policies
adopted, and give rise to a  variety of OSH issues. Therefore, when
devising a  prevention strategy for green jobs, the speci /f_icities of
the di fferent types of green jobs have to be taken into account.
A sectoral approach may be appropriate, although, even within
one sector, there will be di fferent types of green jobs with speci /f_ic
conditions to consider. Still, as diverse as green jobs may be, this
project has revealed that they are characterised by a  number of
common challenges.
The /f_irst of these challenges is an increasing trend towards decen –
tralised work processes and the widely distributed nature of work.
Thus, as workplaces become more dispersed and more di fficult to
reach, monitoring and enforcing good OSH conditions and safe
working practices is likely to become more challenging. For exam –
ple, such decentralisation is exactly the case in the generation
of renewable energy with a  diversity of distributed, small-scale
installations. Such energy systems, especially when installed by
new, unskilled entrants in the sector (or by do-it-yourself enthu –
siasts) are likely to be non-standard installations, which may be
dangerous — in particular to maintenance workers. With the large
diversity and number of energy providers connected to the grid,
there may also be di fficulties in controlling a  complex grid linked
to a two-way transmission.
The manufacturing sector is also likely to undergo signi /f_icant
changes as advanced manufacturing techniques, such as 3D
printing, o ffer greater /f_lexibility allowing mass customisation to
become economically viable, possibly resulting in decentralised,
local manufacturing. Increasingly, local manufacturing plants
could mean widely distributed hazards in small units, with new
groups of workers exposed to manufacturing risks. Mass customi –
sation with batch sizes of one could also lead to product safety
and OSH issues, where items are one-o ffs and OSH standards are
difficult to de /f_ine or enforce.
Partly linked to decentralisation, a  growth in the use of subcon –
tracted work (as well as an increase in self-employment, micro and
small enterprises) may be expected, and not only in the energy
and manufacturing sectors. The growing area of green transport,
for example, may be seen as a  job opportunity by ‘mobility self-
entrepreneurs’, using new types of green vehicles such as ‘cargo
bikes’ to deliver people, goods and services. The downside of
these economic structures is that they may have less OSH aware –
ness, a  weaker OSH culture, fewer resources available for OSH,
and less access to OSH services.Greening the economy, therefore, means a  fundamental trans –
formation in terms of business processes and skills sets. There are
many new technologies and working processes where ‘old’ OSH
knowledge is not always directly transferable, and where speci /f_ic
knowledge is needed but has not yet been fully developed. There
are also a  number of ‘old’ risks found in di fferent situations and
combinations requiring new speci /f_ic skills. The installation of PV
elements on roofs, for example, brings together traditional con –
struction risks and electrical risks: workers, therefore, need spe –
ci/f_ic training to perform this job. However, the job opportunities
associated with the rapid greening of the economy may attract
new entrants possibly extending themselves beyond their origi –
nal skills areas and unaware of these new challenges and risks.
A further issue related to skills is the shortage of skilled workers
resulting from the speed of change and the new technologies
competing with each other for highly-quali /f_ied sta ff. This could
result in a  greater polarisation of the workforce, with low-skilled
workers pushed into accepting poorer working conditions in
more di fficult and manual jobs (e.g. in waste collection and sort –
ing, maintenance or repair). Such jobs are likely to increase with
the green ‘make-do-and-mend’ attitude of extending the life of
products — in particular, in the context of low economic growth.
Another challenge is linked to the potential con /f_licts between
the pursuit of green objectives and OSH, with achieving green
outcomes taking priority. For example, indoor /f_inishing construc –
tion work in energy-e fficient, tightly sealed buildings may expose
workers to higher concentrations of dangerous substances. Time
pressures to take green actions generated by economic and politi –
cal factors, such as subsidies and their withdrawal, may addition –
ally contribute to OSH being overlooked.
Besides risks shifting from the environment to workers, there may
also be an increasing level of transfer of OSH risk between jobs. For
example, high waste-disposal charges may lead to more in-house
efforts by the waste producer to deal with waste, thus transfer –
ring risks linked to waste management from professional waste
operators to waste producers. The political pressure to recycle
also means that the range of materials and, therefore, of risks to
which workers are potentially exposed, will be increasingly large.
In general, there could be increasing potential for the release of
novel, difficult-to-identify and potentially hazardous materials
throughout the life cycle of green technologies and products and,
in particular, during end-of-life processing. The rapidly evolving
technologies of PVs, batteries, new construction materials and new
materials such as biomaterials and nanomaterials, will need to be
closely monitored over their entire life cycle for potential (unknown)
health and safety risks — in particular, long-latency health hazards.
This will be increasingly challenging as no one stays in the same
job for life, making it di fficult to trace health e ffects back to jobs.
High levels of innovation and increased automation may improve
OSH by removing workers from some hazardous tasks: for exam –
ple, the o ff-site automated construction of modular buildings is
likely to improve on-site safety as building moves into factories

Conclusions
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 153where good OSH conditions are easier to ensure. However, this
development may also bring human-machine interface issues as
well as issues of over-reliance on the technology, as in the case of
driverless vehicles and platooning in transport, or collaborative
robots in manufacturing.
It is fair to say that many of the risks highlighted in the scenarios
are not new: in many cases, it is the new, di fferent settings and
conditions in which the risks are found, as well as the new com –
binations of ‘old’ risks, and the di fferent groups of workers, pos –
sibly without the adequate OSH training, that bring new OSH
challenges. Measures are, therefore, needed to raise awareness
and train employers and workers in green jobs for these new
and emerging challenges. In any case, whether new or ‘old’ risks,
the workplace risk assessment remains key to devising adequate
prevention measures that take into account the speci /f_icity of the
green job considered and the workers involved.
Finally, all three scenarios highlight the need for a  systematic,
prior OSH assessment of any new technology, product and pro –
cess at a  very early development stage that considers the entire
life cycle, from ‘cradle to cradle’ (i.e. including design, manufac –
ture, transport, installation, operation and maintenance, decom –
missioning, treatment of waste and later reuse). Integrating pre –
vention into the design is more e fficient, as well as cheaper, than
retro /f_itting OSH; this needs to start now for safe future green jobs.
However, this approach requires the intensive cooperation of vari –
ous disciplines and actors at the levels of policymaking, R  & D, and
the workplace, including (sectoral) social partners. In addition to
the OSH community, this should include the key actors in envi –
ronmental protection as well as technology developers, designers
and architects. Throughout this project, the scenarios have proven
to be a  powerful tool to support such cooperation, by encourag –
ing people to think outside their ‘usual box’ in a  neutral context
(the future, removed from the constraints of the present) thereby
facilitating discussion. This has also had the result of e fficiently
mainstreaming OSH into the various disciplines and sectors rep –
resented in the project (environmental protection, public health,
transport, energy, manufacturing and construction). This, together
with the new insights into new and emerging OSH risks generated
in this process, is key to the creation of green jobs o ffering decent,
safe and healthy working conditions and, thus, contributing to the
smart, sustainable and inclusive growth of the green economy
in line with the EU 2020 strategy (European Commission, 2010).
8.2. The foresight and
scenario-building process
This foresight project was designed to develop scenarios that
could be used to consider the potential future impact that a  num –
ber of key new technologies may have on workers’ safety and
health in green jobs. It is important to recognise that the three
scenarios developed during this project are not projections or forecasts but describe possible future ‘worlds’ for green jobs. They
constitute a  tool for exploring the future and the critical uncertain –
ties, thereby allowing the anticipation of potential future chal –
lenges and supporting the development of more robust strategies
to address them.
The scope of the project was challenging, owing to the di fficulty
in de /f_ining green jobs and the associated breadth of the potential
jobs involved. It is also a  sector where there are high levels of inter –
dependence between areas of technology, with energy cutting
across nearly all other areas. There is also a  range of ‘horizontal’
technology issues, such as the application of nanomaterials. As
a result, the project was a  particularly robust test of the foresight
process and the scenarios.
The scenarios produced could equally be applied to a  broad range
of technologies associated with green jobs other than those
selected in Phase  2. It may also be possible to extend their appli –
cation to other aspects of green jobs, so long as the underlying
assumptions remain valid. But they should not be used as such
for considering OSH for jobs outside the scope of green jobs. For
such a  purpose, the greatest area that would need to be changed
would be that of the drivers of change speci /f_ic to green issues.
However, a  signi /f_icant amount of the data on drivers of change
and technologies could be applied to a  broader range of jobs.
The fourth scenario (one of low growth, weak green values and
low levels of innovation in green technologies) was not devel –
oped as part of this project since it was not relevant for exploring
OSH risks from new technologies (because of low innovation) in
green jobs (because of weak green values). However, it could be
used to explore existing or emerging OSH risks in a  context of low
growth; furthermore, aspects of the fourth scenario are present
to varying degrees in parts of Europe.
The workshops in Phase  3 of the project were a  critical element in
achieving the objective of the project. They created opportunities
for experts in OSH and technology to engage in a  valuable dia –
logue and to gain knowledge of each other’s disciplines, thus ena –
bling OSH to be mainstreamed into innovation and technology
development as well as to generate new insights on the impact
of new technologies on OSH. This is essential in order to better
identify future OSH challenges and needs and so better target
actions and allocate resources available for OSH.
At the same time, these workshops showed the value of the sce –
narios in engaging with di fferent groups of stakeholders and in
generating strategic discussions between them. As participants
shared their respective insights, many current assumptions were
tested. It was, for example, apparent that many of the assump –
tions about future green jobs currently being made by govern –
ments, as indicated, for example, by their targets for renewable
energy, are currently based on an optimistic outcome — a  Win-
Win scenario. The possibility that these targets may not be met
should be taken into account by, for example, looking at the
alternative scenarios produced (and others).

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
154 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkPolicy generation and analysis is a  difficult process that requires
signi /f_icant evidence and detailed evaluation. It was not the objec –
tive of this project to rigorously produce and evaluate policies
during the /f_inal workshop (Section  6). However, it was possible
to demonstrate the potential and value of using the scenarios to
support the process of developing and evaluating policies needed
to achieve the best future OSH outcome, and to give participants
experience of this application.In conclusion, the project demonstrated the value of the three
scenarios produced to generate a  strategic discussion and new
insights. The scenarios have proven to be a  robust tool for sup –
porting the anticipation and analysis of future OSH challenges
and opportunities in green jobs as well as the development
of more robust ‘future-proofed’ strategies and policies tested
against di fferent assumptions. We hope that they will be used
by organisations to support the ongoing work in this area.

9. References

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
156 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at WorkBird, J., Lawton, K. (2009), The Future’s Green: Jo bs and the UK
low-carbon transition , Institute for Public Policy Research ( http://
www.ippr.org/images/media/ /f_iles/publication/2011/05/future –
green_1737.pdf ).
Blue Green Alliance (2009), Building the Clean Energy Assembly
Line: How renewable energy can revitalize U.S. manufacturing and
the American middle class (http://www.bluegreenalliance.org/
news/publications/document/BGA-Phase-II-Report-PRINT.pdf ).
Bömer, T. (2003), ‘Vision-based protective devices (VBPD) —
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Annexes

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
160 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work Annex 1: Participants at project kick-o ff meeting
Name Affiliation
Sam Bradbrook Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL), United Kingdom
Emmanuelle Brun European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Øle Busck Aalborg University, Denmark
Kären Clayton Health and Safety Executive (HSE), United Kingdom
Martin Duckworth SAMI Consulting, United Kingdom
Peter Ellwood Health and Safety Laboratory, United Kingdom
Xabier Irastorza European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Ian McCluskey Shell Gas Ltd, United Kingdom
Michal Miedzinski Technopolis Group, Belgium
Andrea Okun National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), United States
John Reynolds SAMI Consulting, United Kingdom
Olivier Salvi French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks (INERIS), France

Annexes
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 161Annex 2: Literature sources for contextual drivers of change
Organisation Title Page Author(s) DateURL,
publication detailsNotes Region
Institute for
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Annexes
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 171Annex 3: Drivers of change for green jobs and
potential health and safety risks in green jobs
SOCIETAL
Demographics
1. Increasing population Increasing population, worldwide as well as in Europe, is likely to increase the use of energy
and natural resources. Thus, population increase drives the need for ever-more e fforts to
improve energy e fficiency, sustainable development, recycling and the environmental
impact of human activity.
2. Ageing population and
workforceIncreasing numbers of older people in the general population and in the workforce will
have an impact on energy use and the potential for health and safety issues. Older people
tend to use more energy in the home, but less on transport. Older workers may be more
susceptible to new technologies and substances in the workplace.
3. Baby boomer retirement
bulge 2010–20As many post-war baby boomers reach retirement, there may be a  loss of essential skills in
the workplace and a  resulting threat to health and safety in work generally, including green
jobs.
4. More women in the
workforceThere may be gender issues associated with new substances and new work processes in
green jobs.
5. Increasing urbanisation Increasing urbanisation of populations may impact on energy use, use of natural resources,
pollution, etc., driving the need for mitigation measures such as energy e fficiency,
renewable energy and recycling.
6. Increasing single living,
driven by family breakdown,
lifestyle choices, increasing
longevitySingle households are likely to be less energy e fficient than multiple occupancy houses,
driving the need for mitigation measures such as energy e fficiency and renewable energy.
7. Increasing levels of obesity Health and safety risks attributable to obesity in general will apply to green jobs and may be
particularly relevant in certain jobs (e.g. in susceptibility to the e ffects of new or substitute
chemicals).
8. Migration Shortage of the skills necessary in some green jobs means that migrant labour is being
used to /f_ill vacancies. Migrant workers can be at greater risk of accidents and work-related
ill health than local sta ff owing to language and cultural issues. They are also typically more
often employed in more risky jobs and in more precarious conditions and bene /f_it less from
training and are, therefore, more at risk. Climate change might modify migration patterns
(e.g. owing to the scarcity of water in some regions of the world) and new populations of
migrant workers with di fferent characteristics might be found in the EU; the migration /f_low
might also be modi /f_ied.
Public opinion
9. Increasing consumer and
investor concerns about
energy and other industry
sectors’ responsibilityPublic opinion and competitiveness issues could drive corporate social responsibility
programmes leading to companies making e fforts to operate more e fficiently and
sustainably. Public opinion, pressure groups and campaigns will in /f_luence governments.
10. Growing intolerance of risk The general public’s growing intolerance of risk, coupled with their inability to properly
assess risk, may lead to reluctance to adopt new (green) technologies. On the other hand,
the general public may favour newer, renewable and sustainable technologies over older,
dirtier technology. Improved risk communication might a ffect people’s attitudes.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
172 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work 11. People’s reaction to climate
change and the extent to
which they regard human
activity as responsibleIf people believe that CO2 emissions play a  major part in global warming, they will be
increasingly likely to support low-carbon energy sources. Climate change deniers will take
a different view. Companies and government will be in /f_luenced by these views.
12. Public opinion on
environmental protection
generallyPublic opinion on environmental protection and opposition to activities that damage the
environment could drive green jobs in protection. However, shortages of essential natural
resources could eventually result in con /f_lict between society’s material needs and the
protection of the environment.
13. Generational attitudes Social scientists de /f_ine di fferent cohorts in society (e.g. baby boomers and Generations X,
Y and Z); each group has di fferent attitudes and approaches to communication (‘digital
migrants’ compared with ‘digital natives’), learning, engagement with politics, etc. Younger
groups may be more questioning and challenging; they will have di fferent attitudes to
environmental issues.
14. Increasing demand for
organic food Increasing demand for organic food is likely to generate more jobs in the production of
organic food.
15. Increasing demand for low-
carbon and environmentally
friendly products and
servicesIncreasing demand for such items and services will drive increases in jobs involved in their
production and delivery.
TECHNOLOGICAL
Technologies for climate change mitigation
16. Carbon capture and storage
(CCS)Successful testing and development of this technology will result in increasing numbers of
jobs in this sector, although numbers by 2020 may not be great. Although this quali /f_ies as
green in that it reduces carbon emissions to the atmosphere, it could be argued that it is not
a long-term sustainable solution.
17. Clean coal technologies Successful testing and development of this technology will result in increasing numbers of
jobs in this sector, although numbers by 2020 may not be great. Although this quali /f_ies as
green in that it reduces pollutant emissions to the atmosphere, it could be argued that it is
not a  long-term sustainable solution.
18. Renewable energy
technologiesDevelopments in renewable energy technologies and/or expansion in these areas would
create jobs. The technologies include: wind, wave, solar PV, solar heating, geothermal
energy, air exchange methods, small-scale hydroelectricity, biofuels and biomass.
19. Other emerging energy
technologiesDevelopments and expansion in novel energy solutions will lead to jobs in those areas (e.g.
combined heat and power, microgeneration, hydrogen and energy storage technologies,
including batteries).
20. Nuclear energy The extent to which nuclear energy contributes to the future energy supplies will a ffect the
demand for energy from other sources, including green energy sources.
21. Smart grid technologies Development of smart grid technology, resulting in more e fficient use of power, would lead
to green jobs. The development of a  smart grid will require the corresponding development
of information and communications technology (ICT) (see below) to control the grid.
22. Development of energy-
efficient transportIncreasing development and production of greener transport technologies (e.g. electric,
hybrid and hydrogen — fuel cell or internal combustion — vehicles).

Annexes
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 173Technologies for climate change adaptation
23. Coastal defences;
reinforcing buildings;
water management;
harvesting; adaptation in
agriculture  — agroforestryEfforts to make the most e fficient use of land could lead to increased food production and
green jobs.
24. Geoengineering Developments in technologies such as ambient air CCS and ocean seeding, designed
to remove carbon from the wider atmosphere as opposed to capture at source, or
management or exploitation of methane gas hydrates, would create jobs in these areas.
Unlikely to be large numbers by 2020. Although these qualify as green in that they reduce
CO2 levels in the atmosphere, it could be argued that they are not long-term sustainable
solutions.
Other environmentally relevant technologies
25. Growth in waste
management and recyclingGrowth in waste management and recycling activities, driven by declining natural
resources, environmental legislation and public opinion. Recycling is a  dangerous sector in
which to work.
26. Developments in
information and
communications
technology (ICT)Increasing use of computers will require more energy. A  lot of software contains redundant
code thus reducing the e fficiency of the computers; more energy-e fficient computers, in
terms of both hardware and better software, will reduce the inevitable increase in energy
use in this area. Computers will be essential for the control of, for example, smart-grid
technology and smart appliances, optimisation of energy use in buildings, and for transport.
27. Development of smart
appliancesAlongside a  smart grid, society will need smart appliances (appliances that can
communicate with energy suppliers and take their own decisions about when to switch on
and o ff in order to use electricity at the best price). In an industrial situation, there could be
risks associated with autonomous machines switching themselves on and o ff.
28. Developments in robotics
and automationRobots will increasingly be used to replace humans in dangerous jobs. They may also
replace humans in green jobs. For example, the use of computerised tractors in farming
already exists. ‘Precision farming’ uses global positioning technology and satellite images to
make the best use of land.
29. Nanotechnologies It is likely that nanotechnologies will contribute to green issues in various ways (e.g.
changes in manufacturing resulting in saving of natural resources, novel materials,
desalination, changes in food production, and carbon nanotubes in new battery designs).
New materials and nanoparticles may bring health and safety risks as well as environmental
risks.
30. Biotechnologies Use of synthetic biology and genetic modi /f_ication techniques to generate desired traits in
crops and animals may have health and safety implications. Genetic testing could be used
to identify those at particular risk from toxic substances.
31. Green chemistry Substitution of chemicals for environmental purposes may inadvertently result in changes
in health and safety risks.
32. Sustainable manufacturing Manufacturing making use of low-carbon technologies (renewable and non-toxic materials,
recycling, low waste) has strong green credentials, but new methods and new or substitute
substances may bring changes in health and safety risks.
Wild card  (12): Major incident involving renewable technology.
(12) Wild cards are low frequency, high-impact events.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
174 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work ECONOMIC
33. European economic growth
to 2020The state of European economies will have a  signi /f_icant e ffect on the availability of
resources with which to tackle environmental issues. Will the European economy grow? Has
the recession ended? Will another global /f_inancial crisis occur? Will the European economy
be favourable to investment in green technologies?
34. Decreasing oil availability
and increasing and more
volatile oil pricesAs easy-to-reach oil resources decline and demand increases, there will be increasing
pressure to improve fuel e fficiency and to seek alternative, renewable fuel sources. In
addition to its transport and heating uses, oil is a  feedstock for many industrial processes
and so shortages and increasing prices will drive e fficiency improvements and use of
alternative sources (e.g. biomass).
35. Decreasing availability of
gas and increasing and
more volatile gas pricesAs easy-to-reach gas resources decline and demand increases, there will be increasing
pressure to improve fuel e fficiency, energy e fficiency in buildings and to seek alternative,
renewable fuel sources. In addition, methane from biomass and novel natural sources (e.g.
gas hydrates) may be introduced.
36. Decreasing price of
renewable energyAs the cost of energy from renewable sources decreases, whether as a  result of
technological innovation or as a  result of subsidies and incentives, its popularity and rate/
extent of adoption will increase.
37. Shortages and increasing
prices of natural resources
(other than energy)Increasing competition for natural resources from emerging economies and increasing use
at home will lead to increased e fforts in areas such as recycling, more e fficient production
and reduction of waste. Companies adopting more sustainable business practices to hold
down costs by reducing waste.
38. Global recession Governments are seeing the need for /f_inancial stimulus to deal with the recession as an
ideal opportunity to green their economies.
39. Globalisation Globalisation leads to increasing movement of goods and people, contributing to global
energy use and, therefore, driving the need for e fficiency. In addition, competition
from emerging economies drives cost-cutting in Europe resulting in greater e fficiency.
Increasingly demanding climate-change regulations a ffecting multinational businesses
could also drive e fficiency gains.
40. Trade liberalism versus
protectionismThe current global economy has been enabled by, among other factors, increasingly liberal
trade conditions. The continuation or re-emergence of recession could drive a  return to
protectionism; this could a ffect prices and availability of natural resources, including energy.
41. Shifts in world economic
powerEmerging economies such as China and India are growing more quickly than OECD
countries and their economic in /f_luence will increase accordingly. This could lead to
increasing political in /f_luence (e.g. China’s ability to a ffect decisions on carbon targets at the
Copenhagen Climate Change Conference in 2009).
42. Employment — need to
create jobs Green jobs tend to be more labour intensive. However, some argue that green policies
cause a  net loss of jobs overall. Others argue that the environmental crisis that could occur
as a result of climate change will threaten more jobs than environmental policies. Every
green job contributes to greening of jobs in other parts of the economy.
43. The attitudes of insurance
companies to developing
green technologiesBusinesses need to be able to get cover for speculative ventures.
44. Creation of a  suitable
/f_inancial climate to enable
investment in green
technologiesBusinesses need to be able to raise capital to invest in green technologies. Many companies
involved in this area are SMEs. Legislation to remove investment uncertainty and the
availability of credit are essential drivers. Recognition by venture capital /f_irms that green
technology development can give signi /f_icant business opportunities. Many companies
driving renewable energy solutions are SMEs. More established companies can use green
technologies to stay at the cutting edge, expand sales and exploit new export markets.
45. Availability of capital for
investmentGovernment action to encourage banks and venture capitalists to back green projects:
government to underwrite borrowing.

Annexes
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 17546. Market opportunities
offered by environmental
productsGlobal market for environmental products and services (e fficiency, recycling, water
sanitation and e fficiency and sustainable transport) is currently EUR  1 000 billion, and could
reach EUR  2 200 billion by 2020.
47. Growth of the EU The growth of the EU will see potentially larger markets for green technology.
48. The need for food security Increasing energy costs could drive decreasing transport of food and increasing local food
production.
49. The need to replace ageing
infrastructureAgeing infrastructure and networks (e.g. electricity grids) need replacement over the
coming decade. New forms of energy generation require new infrastructure. The massive
amount of activity required will a ffect the size and shape of EU workforce: ‘Smart’
infrastructure requires manufacture, installation and maintenance.
50. Availability of a  sizeable
domestic market for green
products and services and
a requirement for local
contentA ready domestic market and a  need for local input will make developments more attractive
to potential investors.
Wild card: New global /f_inancial crisis.
ENVIRONMENTAL
51. Global climate change
initiativesUN initiatives — Kyoto, Copenhagen, etc.
52. EU initiatives European directives and regulations, including: Directive 2009/28/EC of the European
Parliament and of the Council of 23  April 2009 on the promotion of the use of energy from
renewable sources; Directive 2003/30/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of
8 May 2003 on the promotion of the use of biofuels or other renewable fuels for transport;
Directive 2002/91 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16  December 2002
on the energy performance of buildings; Regulation (EC) No 443/2009 of the European
Parliament and of the Council of 23  April 2009 setting emission performance standards
for new passenger cars as part of the Community’s integrated approach to reduce CO2
emissions from light-duty vehicles; Directive 2009/125/EC of the European Parliament and
of the Council of 21  October 2009 establishing a  framework for the setting of ecodesign
requirements for energy-related products (recast).
53. National initiatives The extent to which individual Member States comply with EU initiatives.
54. Increasing responsibility on
producersExtended producer responsibility laws (requiring companies to take back products at the end
of their useful life) for all types of products, and the requirement for eco-labels on all consumer
products to ensure that consumers have access to the information they need to make responsible
purchases, will encourage manufacturers to design and market more eco-friendly products.
Physical e ffects of climate change
55. Increasing frequency of
natural disasters and/or
freak weatherIncreasingly extreme weather will drive public opinion on climate change, strengthening
the position of pressure groups and potentially in /f_luencing government policies.
56. Increasing need to manage
water suppliesClimate change may lead to water shortages in parts of the world such as southern
Spain. Activities to store water and to use less water will become increasingly important.
Desalination might become more important.
57. Food security Climate change may drive the need for more e fficient and/or more local food production.
This could lead to an increase or decrease in jobs, depending on the solutions adopted.
58. Increasing importance of
‘uplands’As climate change a ffects lower-lying areas, higher ground might become more important
in farming and forestry, possibly bringing new challenges.
Wild cards: Release of climate change e-mails; increase in natural disasters/freak weather.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
176 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work POLITICAL
Government interventions
59. Actions to encourage
research and developmentDevelop clear criteria to prioritise research and development needs in order to target
research and innovation budgets towards environmentally friendly activities. Strengthen,
optimise and expand energy research capabilities. Promote the development of technology
clusters.
60. Actions to develop
education and training to
develop the necessary skillsMany observers fear that a  shortage of skills will hamper the development of green
activities and therefore green jobs. Actions to encourage education in science, technology,
engineering and mathematics, to identify the skills gaps and to provide relevant training
will promote the creation of green jobs. Skill levels are important to health and safety.
61. Action to ensure that
regulation enables
rather than sti /f_les the
development of green jobs:
removal of the barriers to
the creation of green jobsEnsuring that the regulatory regime is used in the drive to develop greener technologies,
products, and services and, thus, green jobs: for example, faster and easier planning
procedures for green projects, including land-use policies and planning permission,
building codes, energy e fficiency standards (for appliances, vehicles, etc.), targets for
producing renewable energy, and proportionate health and safety legislation
62. A favourable tax regime for
environmental activitiesTax incentives for green activities: favourable customs duties; taxation of high carbon and
polluting activities (e.g. aviation and motoring); removal of ‘perverse’ subsidies on fossil fuel
activities in some cases; shifting of tax from ‘goods’ to ‘bads’
63. Financial incentives Grants, subsidies and loans, for renewable and low-carbon energy projects, car scrappage
schemes, feed-in tari ffs, etc.
64. Governments to target
recession busting /f_inancial
stimulusMany governments are seeing the need to boost their economies in the wake of the global
recession as an opportunity to green their economies by targeting environmentally sound
activities. In addition to the availability of /f_inance, it may be that costs of major engineering
projects will be lower over the next few years as contractors compete for business in
a reduced market.
65. Carbon markets Fixing the current shortcomings inherent in carbon trading and Kyoto Protocol-related
innovations such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) so that they can become
reliable and adequate sources of funding for green projects and employment; carbon
pricing via EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) (Directive 2009/29/EC of the European
Parliament and of the Council of 23  April 2009 amending Directive 2003/87/EC so as to
improve the greenhouse gas emission allowance trading scheme of the Community).
66. Public sector investment
policiesThe public sector should lead on energy e fficiency by retro /f_itting energy e fficiency
measures to public buildings, using renewable energy systems on public buildings and
ensuring that new public buildings are built to green standards. The public sector should
undertake initiatives to boost public transport and energy-e fficient vehicles to convert local
government /f_leets to alternative vehicles or fuels. Procurement policies should favour green
products and services from local providers.
67. Tax incentives, rebates,
reduced fees or streamlined
planning for private
building owners who
invest in energy e fficiency,
renewable energy, or green
buildingTechnical assistance or innovative /f_inancing for private investment in renewable energy,
efficiency, green building, alternative vehicles or green space; green building codes, energy
conservation ordinances, or other requirements for new green buildings or retro /f_its of
existing buildings; land use and infrastructure policies to support green manufacturing
companies.
68. Existence of adjustment
policiesWhere jobs may be lost as a  result of the creation of green jobs, action to retrain and
redeploy displaced sta ff may reduce the risk of opposition to green job creation.
69. Increased housebuilding to
cope with demandRequirements for new housing to be energy e fficient or even ‘carbon-neutral’ will increase
the number of green jobs in construction.
Wild cards: Global instability disrupts supplies of energy and other resources; terrorism.

Annexes
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 177Annex 4: Participants in Phase 1 Interview
programme
Name Affiliation
Francisco Jesús AlvarezEuropean Commission, Directorate-General EMPL.B.3, Employment, Social A ffairs and
Equal Opportunities, Health, Safety and Hygiene at Work
Member of EU-OSHA’s former European Risk Observatory Advisory Group (EROAG)  (13)
Janet AshersonInternational Organisation of Employers, representing the employers’ representatives of
EU-OSHA’s former European Risk Observatory Advisory Group (EROAG)
Edward Barbier University of Wyoming, United States
Øle Busck Aalborg University, Denmark
Stefano Carosio D’Appolonia S.p.A., Italy
Kären Clayton Health and Safety Executive (HSE), United Kingdom
Bo Diczfalusy International Energy Agency (IEA)
Fruzsina Kemenes  (14) RenewableUK, United Kingdom
Sergio Iavicoli National Institute for Occupational Safety and Prevention (ISPESL), Italy
Ivan Ivanov World Health Organisation (WHO)
Totti KönnöläEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre — Institute for Prospective Technological
Studies (IPTS)
Ian McCluskey Shell Gas Ltd, United Kingdom
Steven Marshall Scottish Power, United Kingdom
Andrea Okun National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), United States
Ian Pearson Futurizon, United Kingdom
Aïda PonceEuropean Trade Union Institute (ETUI), representing the workers’ representatives of
EU-OSHA’s former European Risk Observatory Advisory Group (EROAG)
Jorma Rantanen Formerly Finnish Institute of Occupational Health (FIOSH), Finland
Dietmar ReinertInstitute of Occupational Safety and Health of the German Social Accident Insurance (IFA),
Germany
Michael Renner Worldwatch Institute, United States
Anabella Rosemberg International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC)
Olivier Salvi French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks (INERIS), France
Ana Belén Sánchez International Labour Organisation (ILO)
Klass Soens Federation of Enterprises, Belgium
Jennifer Stack Tecnalia, Spain
Michael Sturm E.ON Climate and Renewables GmbH, Germany
123
(13) The ERO Advisory Group (EROAG) was replaced by the Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG) in the course of the project.
(14) Chris Streatfeild responded for RenewableUK in the WP 1.3 voting exercise.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
178 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work Annex 5: Participants in Phase 2 Interview
programme
Name Affiliation
Francisco Jesús AlvarezEuropean Commission, Directorate-General EMPL.B.3, Employment, Social A ffairs and
Equal Opportunities Health, Safety and Hygiene at Work Unit
Member of EU-OSHA’s former European Risk Observatory Advisory Group (EROAG)  (15)
Camille Burel Europabio, Belgium
Øle Busck Aalborg University, Denmark
David Campbell Scottish Power, United Kingdom
Stefano Carosio D’Appolonia S.p.A., Italy
Kären Clayton Health and Safety Executive (HSE), United Kingdom
Tiina Delmonte and
Barrie ShepherdDoosan Babcock, United Kingdom
Richard Gowland European Process Safety Centre (EPSC)
Christian Jochum European Process Safety Centre (EPSC)
Lee Kenny Health and Safety Executive (HSE), United Kingdom
Jesús López de Ipiña Tecnalia, Spain
Ian McCluskey Shell Gas Ltd, United Kingdom
Massimo Mattucci COMAU, Italy
Andrea Okun National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), United States
Geo ff Pegman RuRobots, United Kingdom
Mike Pitts Chemistry Innovation Ltd, United Kingdom
Daniel PodgórskiCentral Institute for Labour Protection — National Research Institute, Poland
Member of EU-OSHA’s former European Risk Observatory Advisory Group (EROAG),
representing the governments’ group
Aida PonceEuropean Trade Union Institute (ETUI), representing the workers’ representatives of
EU-OSHA’s former European Risk Observatory Advisory Group (EROAG)
Olivier Salvi French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks (INERIS), France
Reto Schneider Swiss Re, Switzerland
Rebekah SmithBusiness Europe
Member of EU-OSHA’s former European Risk Observatory Advisory Group (EROAG)
Jennifer Stack Tecnalia, Spain
Chris Streatfeild RenewableUK, United Kingdom
Michael Sturm E.ON Climate and Renewables GmbH, Germany
Evangelos TzimasEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, JRC.F.6, Institute for Energy and Transport,
Energy systems evaluation Unit
4
(15) The ERO Advisory Group (EROAG) was replaced by the Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG) in the course of the project.

Annexes
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 179Annex 6: Consolidated list of technologies
Technology Subtopics Green credentials Health and safety aspects Potential for developmentReferences
(next section)
Renewable energy technologies
1. Wind energy
(industrial scale
— see domestic
applications)Onshore, o ffshoreRenewable energy
sourcePhysical hazards: falls from height,
manual handling, working in
con/f_ined spaces (exposure to dust,
MSDs owing to awkward postures),
physical load from climbing towers,
electrocution during construction
and maintenance; o ffshore hazards:
lifting, boats, weather, stability
of platforms; machine safety: ice
throw, blade fracture; chemical
risks: exposure to resins, styrene,
etc., during blade manufacture and
maintenance.Large increase in use already under way and likely
to accelerate. Development of larger turbines,
especially o ffshore. Integration with smart grids. New
stackable, replicable and standardised substructures
for large-scale o ffshore turbines such as tripods,
quadrupods, jackets and gravity-based structures.
Floating structures with platforms, /f_loating tripods
or single anchored turbine. Manufacturing processes
for mass production of substructures. Improved
reliability and lifetime through new materials and
designs. Further automation and optimisation of
manufacturing. Innovative logistics for transport and
erection.A1, A2, A3, A4,
A5, A6, A7, A8
2. Marine energyWave, tidal and
in-stream devices,
salinity gradients,
temperature gradients
(ocean thermal energy
conversion, OETC)Renewable energy
sourcePhysical hazards: falls from height,
manual handling, working in
con/f_ined spaces (exposure to dust,
MSDs owing to awkward postures),
electrocution during construction
and maintenance; o ffshore hazards:
lifting, boats, weather, stability
of platforms; chemical risks:
exposure during manufacture and
maintenance of components.Currently, no leading commercial technology.
Many devices at advanced R  & D stage, some
large-scale prototypes at pre-market stage. Further
development of technologies needed alongside grid
connection issues, integration with other developing
technologies to make hybrid systems. New designs
have to overcome large technical challenges in
a harsh marine environment.A1, A2, A9,
A10, A11
3. Solar
photovoltaic
(industrial scale
— see domestic
applications)Direct conversion
of the sun’s rays
to electricity using
semiconductorsRenewable energy
sourcePhysical hazards: falls from height,
manual handling, con /f_ined spaces,
electrocution during construction
and maintenance; exposure to toxic
chemicals and nanomaterials during
manufacture and disposal/recycling. Improvements in solar panel design to improve
energy yield and reduce costs. Emerging
technologies include: advanced inorganic thin-
/f_ilm technologies; organic solar cells; thermo-
photovoltaic cells and systems. Development of solar
desalination.A1, A9, A10,
A12, A13

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
180 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work Technology Subtopics Green credentials Health and safety aspects Potential for developmentReferences
(next section)
4. Concentrating
solar power (CSP)
(industrial scale
— see domestic
applications)Use of the sun’s rays
to heat a  receiver to
create mechanical
energy to generate
electricity, as opposed
to PV, which uses
direct conversion with
semiconductorsRenewable energy
sourceConstruction and maintenance of
industrial-scale installations, electrical
hazards, hazards from concentrated
sunlight. High temperatures in
concentrating sites.Growth in CSP is anticipated. The International
Energy Agency (IEA) Technology Roadmap —
Concentrating Solar Power postulates that CSP could
provide approximately 10  % of global electricity
by 2050. New collector designs for medium
temperatures being developed for industrial heat
demand.A47
5. Bioenergy
(industrial scale
— see domestic
applications)Biofuels (diesel,
ethanol, etc.), biomass
combustion, biomass-
co-/f_iring (see also clean
coal technologies),
anaerobic digestion
(biogas production),
land /f_ill gas utilisation,
biomass gasi /f_ication,
pyrolysisRenewable energy
sourceFire and explosion during production
and use; biogas quality for injection
into the grid; exposure to biological
hazards; exposure to carcinogens,
heavy metals and gases during
thermal processing; asphyxiation;
risks from small-scale manufacture by
inexperienced people; dock-related
hazards during biomass importation,
such as oxygen depletion in con /f_ined
spaces, exposure to hazardous
volatile organic compounds (VOC),
dusts, moulds and endotoxins;
integration of biofuels into the
European re /f_inery network.Develop and optimise feedstock- /f_lexible
thermochemical pathways and biochemical pathways
to promote large-scale sustainable production
and e fficient use. Technological development
of biofuels to 2020 includes: a  wider range of
bioethanol feedstocks (cereal straws, industrial/
municipal/commercial wastes); a  wider range of
biodiesel feedstocks — algae, jatropha and curcas
(monocrops) and used cooking oil/animal fats.
Conversion technologies will improve: biomass
enzymatic conversion (release of sugars in cellulose
and hemicellulose for fermentation) better, cheaper
enzymes, along with the development of enzymes
to ferment pentose and hexose sugars to ethanol
(not currently possible) to increase yield. Increased
efficiency of biomass combustion and anaerobic
digestion. Development of plasma arc gasi /f_ication
(heating biomass in high-voltage electric current).A2, A4, A8, A9,
A14, A15, A16
6. Geothermal
energy
(industrial scale
— see domestic
applications)Ground and air heat
pumps, hot /f_luid, hot
rocks; current use in
Europe is hot water
from deep aquifers
for district heating
and small/medium
shallow geothermal
plants (which can also
be used for thermal
energy storage); recent
new technology is
the exploitation of
low temperature
geothermal sourcesRenewable energy
sourceEmissions (e.g. sulphur, silica), hazards
from activities such as: trenching,
excavation, electrical issues, welding
and cutting, falls; hazards associated
with borehole drilling, piping
steam/hot water, construction and
operational activities; potential for
earthquake/tremor risk from drilling,
pumping activities into deep rock.Main future developments are seen to be
enabling technologies, such as innovative drilling
technologies, resource assessment, utilising low
temperature sources and exploiting supercritical
zones. Increased e fficiency in geothermal
combined heat and power (CHP) technologies and
components. Improved site assessment, exploration
and installation. New geothermal applications:
de-icing/snow melting on roads, runways, seawater
desalination and absorption cooling. Current
transition into new areas, southern Europe and the
Mediterranean (cooling and heating), eastern and
south-eastern Europe, the United Kingdom and
Ireland growing interest. Leading countries currently
Austria, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland.A1, A4, A10,
A17

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7. HydroelectricityLarge-scale, small-scale,
micro-scaleRenewable energy
sourceHazards associated with construction,
operation and maintenance; electrical
hazards, water hazards, moving
machinery, etc.Small hydropower is seen as having real potential in
the new Member States, estimated around 7.7  TWh
by 2020. Technological innovations by 2020 will
concentrate on turbine design looking at low and
very low head turbines, and to make simple, reliable,
efficient turbines with a  guaranteed performance.
Also, improve environmental integration
(submersible turbo generators); increased cost-
efficiency and use of new materials. New generator
designs, including high pole synchronous
generators, have recently been introduced; new
concepts are under development in the areas of
prediction of energy output, scheduled production
and condition monitoring. Integration with other
renewable technologies.A9, A10
Fossil fuel technologies
8. Carbon capture
and storageEnd of pipe  —
precombustion/
post-combustionReduces CO2
emissions/
removes ambient
CO2Presence of large volumes of CO2
requiring compression, transportation
and underground injection;
handling CO2 in its dense (liquid)
or supercritical phase; CO2 escape
due to loss of plant integrity or
embrittlement of equipment caused
by the gas; potential impact injuries
and asphyxiation risk; acute and
chronic health problems caused by
exposure to high CO2 concentrations
(e.g. inhalation may a ffect respiratory,
cardiovascular and central nervous
system); burns/frostbite from liquid
CO2 exposure; exposure to chemicals
and solvents used in carbon capture
(e.g. amines, methanol) which can
cause irritation to eyes, skin and
respiratory tract; presence of toxic,
/f_lammable and explosive substances
(e.g. amines, ammonia, oxygen) in
coal combustion plant as part of CC
process; not conclusive, but may be
the potential for seismic activity as
a result of burying CO2 underground.Proving technical and economic feasibility using
existing technology; develop more e fficient and
cost-e ffective technologies; develop new capture
concepts; transfer CCS to other carbon-intensive
sectors  (e.g. cement, re /f_ineries and iron and
steel); develop alternative transport and storage
technologies to allow broadening of geographical
deployment; zero-emissions platform (ZEP) plant
technology  (up to 12 EU demonstrators by 2015),
commercial by 2020.A2, A8, A9

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9. Clean coal
technologiesOxyfuel combustion,
integrated gasi /f_ication
combined cycle (IGCC),
coal bed methane
extraction, co- /f_iring
with biomass (see
also 5.  Bioenergy),
supercritical coal power
plant, underground
coal gasi /f_ication)Reduces pollutionFire and explosion risk from
/f_lammable gases, failure of pressure
vessels and pipes, spontaneous
combustion of biomass (for co- /f_iring);
exposure to toxic substances during
syngas or /f_lue gas processing.Continued development and testing of the
technologies listed left under ‘Subtopics’ heading.A8, A9
10. Other fossil
fuel technologiesNatural gas, oilNatural gas (with
CCS) reduces
pollution
(compared to
coal).Fire and explosion risk from
/f_lammable gases, failure of pressure
vessels and pipes. Dockside issues
associated with the transport of
lique /f_ied natural gas (LNG); risks from
offshore regassing.Increased LNG imports. Greater gas storage capacity
underground and potentially undersea. Increased
efficiency in use of oil. Conventional power plant
life extension — work on modelling and assessment
tools.A8, A12
Other energy technologies
11. Nuclear energyNuclear /f_ission, nuclear
fusionLow-carbon energy
sourceHazards associated with construction,
operation and maintenance;radiation,
containment issues, waste disposal,
decommissioning; avoidance of
nuclear accident.Fission: life extension of current generation II plants,
mostly by material performance. Development
of generation III designs, which are standardised
designs to decrease costs, construction times, etc.
There are four main types: Light-Water Reactors
(advanced boiling water and advanced pressurised
water reactors (PWR)), Heavy Water Reactors, High-
Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors (HTRs) and Fast
Neutron Reactors (FNRs). Generation IV Reactors are
under development  — six technologies are being
considered by the Generation IV International Forum
(GIF): Gas-Cooled and Lead-Cooled Fast Reactors,
two types of Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs), Sodium-
Cooled Fast Reactors, Supercritical Water-Cooled
Reactors and Very High-Temperature Gas Reactors
(which can co-generate heat/electricity). Small
(under 500 MWe) systems are being developed and
can be independent from large-grid systems; a  range
of technologies are being developed outside Europe
based on PWR, HTR, Liquid-metal Reactors and MSR
Technology. A1, A2, A9
Fusion  — /f_irst commercial plant unlikely before
2040, although there is talk of a  demonstrator in /f_ive
years. Cold fusion (Low energy nuclear reactions) is
yet to be proven, although the US Navy appears to
be having success in this area.A2, A9

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12. Electricity
transmissionSmart grid, smart
metering, distributed
generation, combined
heat and power, smart
appliancesEnables use of
renewable energy
sourcesElectrical safety; construction;
working at height; skills issues; risks
in all sectors consequent on power
cuts during installation: /f_lashover
burns, falls and electrocution
during installation, connection
and maintenance of new power
sources; electrocution owing to more
work on live systems as systems
become more complex; falls when
installing, connecting or repairing
roof-mounted micro wind turbines
or solar panels; construction and
excavation risks during cable-laying,
substation construction and other
activities (onshore and o ffshore);
smart appliances, those that interact
with the grid to make most use of
lower cost electricity, may be prone
to unexpected starting and stopping;
companies with interrupted supply
contracts may be prone to the same
risks.Grid integration techniques for turbine output  —
High-Voltage Alternating Current (HVAC),
High-Voltage Direct Current (HVDC). PV grid
integration and storage technologies. Develop
advanced network technologies to improve security
and /f_lexibility; preparing long-term evolution of
grids. Work on protection, fault detection and
voltage sag algorithms. Inclusion of storage
devices into centralised control systems. European
Supergrid, HVDC, Flexible AC Transmission Systems
(FACTS), new conductors  — Gas Insulated Lines
(GIL) High Temperature Superconduction (HTS)
wires. HVDC and FACTS only viable with suitable ICT
control. North African solar power grid (DESERTEC).
Smart meter roll-out programme. A1, A2, A8, A9,
A11, A18
13. Electricity
storage and
energy recovery
technologiesBatteries (see
also separate
category), /f_lywheels,
supercapacitors,
Superconducting
Magnetic Energy
Storage (SMES),
hydrogen (see also
separate category),
pumped hydro,
Compressed Air Energy
Storage (CAES), liquid
nitrogen and liquid
oxygen energy storageEnables use of
renewable energy
sourcesElectrical hazards; hazards associated
with feed-in technologies (wind,
wave, solar); hazards from batteries,
hydrogen, fuel cells (see separate
categories); hazards from compressed
and lique /f_ied gases; hazards from the
use of molten materials for storage.Continuous improvements in e fficiency and cost
reduction of these technologies. Increasing use of
these technologies. Establishment of specialised
energy storage ‘gardens’?A8, A12

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14. Battery
TechnologyLead-acid, lithium ion,
sodium sulphur (zebra),
sodium nickel chlorideEnables use of
renewable energy
sourcesSome batteries operate at high
temperatures; there are also electrical
risks from the high voltage/currents
of large batteries; some batteries may
catch /f_ire or explode; exposure to
toxic substances during manufacture;
hazards in the recycling of batteries:
chemical, electrical and /f_ire risk
(lithium ion battery /f_ires in the United
Kingdom).For large-scale systems, energy companies are
looking at sodium sulphur (NaS) batteries — long-
life, large (room-sized) batteries, recently deployed
at 1.2  MW. Other potential battery technologies
are all-liquid batteries (long-life, high current)
and gravel batteries (use spare electricity to heat/
pressurise argon, which heats/cools gravel; energy
is stored as a  temperature di fference between two
gravel silos). A  range of smaller-scale batteries are
being developed, such as thin- /f_ilm batteries (solid
state and long storage), lithium manganese oxide
batteries (charge/discharge in 10  minutes), lithium
phosphate-coated lithium ion batteries (shorter
charge/discharge). Nanotechnology will have a  big
impact on battery technology. Developments
include: silicon nanowire electrodes in lithium ion
batteries (triples their capacity), lithium air batteries
(large storage potential, useful for cars); in addition,
novel catalysts are being developed. World market
growth rate of batteries predicted at 7–30  % a year. It
is thought that many emerging battery technologies
could revolutionise battery use, with a  step change
in recharge time and capacity.A2, A38, A39
15. Hydrogen and
fuel cellsHydrogen in fuel
cells, heating
boilers and internal
combustion engines;
generation methods:
thermochemical
electrolytic splitting of
water using renewable
electricity and
waste heat; biomass
biological processes,
algae; other fuel cells
(ethanol, methanol,
methane, diesel,
biogas, LPG)Enables use of
renewable energy
sourcesFire and explosion hazards during
manufacture, distribution, storage
and use; electrical hazards from fuel
cells; if hydrogen use in vehicles is
widespread, the issue of hydrogen
handling by the general public and
workers could present risks.Signi /f_icant developments anticipated to improve
storage of hydrogen, especially in vehicles.
Developments to improve e fficiency of fuel cells and
to reduce costs. Development of domestic hydrogen
CHP systems. If hydrogen is to be successful in
vehicles, a  network of refuelling stations will need to
be developed. Domestic generation of hydrogen and
vehicle refuelling is already under development.A2, A8, A10,
A12

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16. Domestic
and small-scale
applications of
emerging energy
technologiesWind, solar thermal
and solar photovoltaic,
bioenergy, geothermal
energy, combined heat
and power, fuel cellsRenewable
energy sourcesDomestic and small-scale (e.g.
community buildings) applications
of these technologies may bring
a different mix of risks from those
encountered on the industrial scale;
installers will need new skill mixes
(e.g. those who previously worked
only on gas systems who move into
solar thermal installation will have
increased exposure to electrical
work and work at heights); many
installers may be self-employed;
risks to householders; farmers who
produce their own biofuel may be at
risk of /f_ire/explosion; risks to recycling
workers on disposal.Domestic solar and wind applications are seeing
a rapid increase in uptake. Small-scale biofuels
manufacture is increasing. Domestic use of
geothermal systems is relatively low at present.
Extension of solar thermal from water to space
heating. Combi+ systems (heating in winter, cooling
in summer) will have a  large market share by
2020–30.A30, A40
Non-energy technologies
17.
BiotechnologiesBiocatalysts, engineered
cell factories, plant
biofactories, novel
process conditions/
industrial- scale-up,
biore /f_ining and very-
large-scale bioprocessing
(VLSB), meso-scale
manufacture, agricultural
technologies (see also
separate category),
synthetic biology, genetic
modi /f_icationContributes
to green
chemistry,
biofuels, and
improved
agricultural
yieldsPotential for exposure to unknown
hazards from new processes and
materials; distributed manufacture
could increase the potential hazards;
risks to workers from biological
agents at the manufacturing stage,
when these materials are further
used down the user chain, and at the
recycling stage. An area in which considerable development is under
way across a  range of individual technologies with
a wide range of applications.A2, A14
18. Green
chemistryReaction and process
design, novel solvents,
novel catalysis, separation
technology, renewable
feedstocks replace non-
renewable (e.g. CO2 as
a possible new source
for plastics), industrial
biotechnology, materials
technologyGreater
efficiency,
low carbon,
reduces
pollutionPotential for exposure to unknown
hazards from new processes and
materials; substitution of chemicals
for environmental reasons could
result in greater risks to workers;
chemicals obtained from renewable
sources can still be toxic; potential
risks at the recycling stage.Development of novel catalysts, novel solvents,
substitution of environmentally harmful chemicals.A1, A2, A19,
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19. Novel
materialsSmart (multifunctional)
and biomimetic
materials (e.g.
metamaterials),
intelligent polymers
(plastic electronics),
electroactive polymers
(EAPs), shape memory
polymers (SMPs), smart
interactive textiles,
nanomaterials (see also
separate category),
organic light-emitting
diodes (LEDs), organic
light-emitting polymers
(OLEPs)Lighter, stronger
materials
contribute to
energy e fficiency.Potential for toxic or irritant
effects of new materials; risks from
potentially dangerous substances
involved with these novel materials
in manufacturing, and when these
materials are used, processed, or
handled further down the user chain,
and in waste-recycling activities.Developments in a  wide range of classes of new
materials with applications in a  wide range of
sectors.A2, A21
20.
Nanotechnologies
and nanomaterialsA very wide range of
potential applications,
including improved
batteries, engine
additives, new
composite materials,
materials used in
construction (e.g.
pavements/bricks/
asphalt). ‘Capturing’
environmental
pollutants,
nanocoatings/nano-
paints transforming
solar energy
into electricity,
‘green’ antifouling
nanocoatings),
agriculture and
forestry.Contribution to
green sectorsThe particle size of nanomaterials
may a ffect their toxicity and explosive
properties when compared to the
bulk materials; these properties
of nanomaterials are still under
investigation and potentially pose
risks to workers at all stages of their
life cycle.The applications of nanotechnology are expected
to grow very rapidly. There are predictions that
worldwide production could reach 50  000 tonnes
a year during the period 2011 to 2020, with 20  % of
manufactured goods involving nanomaterials.A2, A41, A42,
A43
21. Robotics,
automation
and arti /f_icial
intelligenceUse in manufacturing,
agriculture,
construction and other
industriesFacilitate
introduction,
control and
monitoring
of green
technologiesRisks are mainly those related to the
potential for automated devices to
injure workers, especially during
malfunction and when free-roaming.The use of robots is likely to grow. Increasingly,
robots will be free-roaming and autonomous.A31

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22. Information
and
communication
technologiesIn green jobs terms,
use in monitoring
and control of
energy production
and distribution
(e.g. the smart grid)
in modelling and
optimisation of
systems; increasing
use of networks in
applications such
as intelligent tra ffic
systems, smart grids,
and smart cities; many
wider applicationsFacilitate
introduction,
control and
monitoring
of green
technologies;
reduce the need
for travelNetworks may be susceptible to
interference or hacking (potential
to create major disruption); damage
to safety critical applications could
occur, such as the Stuxnet virus;
increasing use of wireless systems
could increase workers’ exposure to
electromagnetic radiation; there may
be over-reliance on computers in
safety-critical situations; monitoring
systems such as radio frequency
identi /f_ication (RFID) o ffer safety
bene /f_its such as protection for lone
workers, traceability of components,
process control, etc.; the potential
for stress from monitoring and
surveillance; any risks from ‘cloud
computing’ (non-localised software).Continued expansion of computer applications is
inevitable, with growing potential for the safety
bene /f_its and risks described left. The introduction
of quantum computing could see a  step change in
computer power, but this is likely to be some way
off.A32
23. Convergent
technologiesThis term can be
applied to a  range
of technologies, but
is most commonly
used to describe the
co-development of
nanotechnologies,
biotechnologies,
information
technologies and
cognitive sciences
(NBIC).Enhancement
of human
performance
leading to greater
efficiency; tailored
materials o ffering
environmentally
friendly energy
efficiencyUnknown e ffects of enhancement
technologies (e.g. performance-
enhancing drugs, implants, bionic
limbs, exoskeletons); unknown
hazards in the workplace presented
by such technologies. Developments in these technologies continue to
be made. There is evidence of a  change in public
opinion such that enhancement technologies will
become more accepted. Potential developments
include:
· direct human brain-machine connections,
transforming work, sports and art;
· computers and environmental sensors worn as part
of everyday attire;
· more robust, healthy, energetic human body, easier
to repair when necessary;
· practically any structure made of tailored materials,
able to adapt to changing situations, o ffering
energy e fficiency while remaining environmentally
friendly;
· treatments for many physical and mental
disabilities, perhaps completely eradicating some
handicaps such as paralysis or blindness.Interview
programme,
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24. PhotonicsOperations including
emission, transmission,
modulation, signal
processing, switching,
ampli /f_ication and
detection and sensing
of light; more recently,
photonics describes
the use of light to
perform functions
that traditionally fell
within the typical
domain of electronics
(telecommunications,
information processing,
etc.)Improved
efficiency of
processes,
Photonics and
Plastic Electronics
Knowledge Centre
claims ‘massively
reduced energy
consumption’Laser safety, electrical hazardsIncreasing range of applications, including merging
with nanotechnologies. In the European roadmap
for photonics and nanotechnologies (Merging Optics
and Nanotechnologies or MONA), over 50 devices
involving nanophotonics are listed in areas such as
datacoms/telecoms, optical interconnects, displays.Interview
programme,
A44, A45, A46,
A59
25. Transport
technologiesElectric, hybrid and
biofuelled road
vehicles; battery
technology; hydrogen
and fuel cells;
electri /f_ication of
railways; biofuels in
aircraft; novel materials
in aircraft; improved
efficiency of internal
combustion engines
(ICE); intelligent
transport systems,
refuelling/recharging
infrastructureGreater e fficiency,
low carbon,
enables use of
renewable energy
sources, reduces
pollutionHealth and safety issues associated
with contributing technologies:
energy sources, materials, vehicles,
etc.; /f_ire and explosion from fuels;
novel electrical risks from electric and
hybrid vehicles during maintenance
and operation; risks to rescue crews
after accidents; distribution and use
of hydrogen; recharging/battery
exchange hazards.A great deal of work is already under way to
improve the range and performance of electric
and plug-in hybrid road vehicles. If they are to
succeed, a  network of charging points and/or battery
exchange facilities will need to be built. Use of novel
materials to reduce weight. Increasing use of ICT
in vehicles, increasing automation. Driverless cars,
buses and trains with potential for collision risks.A7, A23, A24

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26. Manufacturing
technologiesAdvanced
manufacturing
techniques, distributed
manufacture (e.g.
personal fabrication,
3D printing and
rapid manufacture/
rapid prototyping);
lean methods;
biotechnologies (see
also separate category);
green chemistry (see
separate category),
nanomaterials (see
separate category).Greater e fficiency,
low carbon,
reduced pollutionVery wide range of applications;
potential for exposure to unknown
hazards from new processes and
materials; while many established
manufacturing processes have
robust safety systems, distributed
manufacture could increase the
potential hazards; skills issues
including exposure to chemicals
for unskilled workers; potential for
dangerous waste generated by
new manufacturing technologies/
processes.Signi /f_icant progress anticipated in sustainable
manufacturing, products and services; energy-
efficient manufacturing; key technologies (e.g.
digital technologies, micro and nanoelectronics,
nanotechnologies, plastic electronics, silicon
electronics, industrial biotechnology, photonics,
advanced materials; standardisation; and innovation,
competence development and education). Progress
in rapid manufacturing leading to increasing
customisation — product safety issues. Novel
formulation technologies.A21, A28, A29
27. Construction
technologiesEnergy e fficiency
measures  — new
build and retro /f_it
(insulation, heat-
retaining windows,
ventilation with heat
recovery, energy-
efficient lighting);
renewable energy
(solar thermal and
cooling, geothermal
heating and cooling,
advanced monitoring
systems, photovoltaic,
wind energy, feed-in
to grid, combined
heat and power);
new techniques
(off-site construction/
prefabrication);
new materials (low-
carbon cements,
nanomaterials),
increasing use of ICT
and robotics and
automationUtilise low-
carbon energy
sources, greater
energy e fficiency,
reduced carbon
emissionsA range of hazards. In particular,
the combination of known risks in
new situations (e.g. the installation
of renewable energy equipment
at heights), the installation of new
technology (e.g. feed-in to smart
grids); use of new materials and
potential risks from dangerous
substances used in new construction
materials (e.g. when polishing,
grinding nano-containing bricks and
paints, including in maintenance
and demolishing activities); o ff-site
construction could reduce risks on
site but transfer the risks to other
groups of workers; risk of exposure to
asbestos during retro /f_itting activities.Considerable potential for increased volumes
as requirement for carbon-neutral buildings are
introduced alongside incentives such as feed-
in-tari ffs and renewable heat subsidies. Novel
technologies such as algaetecture (biological
generation of hydrogen on buildings). Application of
carbon capture and storage to cement production.
New insulation and building materials, including
based on nanomaterials such as aerogel nanofoams.A33

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28. Extractive
technologiesQuarries, underground
mines, opencast
mines, mining of
metals, minerals and
aggregatesThis sector is very
energy intensive;
improvements in
efficiency could
make a  signi /f_icant
difference to
carbon emissionsHazards associated with mining and
excavation activities; use of plant and
explosives; working underground;
exposure to chemicals and heat;
greater automation may bring
health and safety bene /f_its to the
industry; there may be an increase
in mining activities in Europe driven
by shortages of rare earth metals,
minerals, metals and coal; old mines
may be reopened in order to extract
more products or as they are now
economical to operate.Metal mining, recovery and reuse of waste heat from
metallurgical slags, use of biomass derived charcoal
instead of coal in the iron and steel industry and use
of by-product slag as ‘green cement’.
Reconstruction of old mines, construction of new
automatic mines, system and unit integration
and system automation. Use of solar power air
conditioners to cool mining structures, reclamation
and treatment of waste water and fuel additives to
minimise carbon emissions from mining equipment
engines.
Aggregates: substitution of primary aggregate for
recycled and secondary aggregate. Developments
in crushing technology (e.g. high productivity with
lower cost, ‘just-in-time’ supply, improved reliability
and availability of plant, crusher automation with
increased throughput, and in-pit crushing).A55, A56
29. Agriculture,
forestry and food
technologiesBiotechnology (e.g.
genetic modi /f_ication,
see separate category);
decarbonisation,
precision farming;
robotics and
automation (see also
separate category);
water conservation;
nanotechnology (see
also separate category)More e fficient
production,
reduced
environmental
impact, reduced
use of fuelsA range of hazards: machinery;
electrical; exposure to chemicals;
biological hazards; exposure to
GMOs. Increasing use of automation (e.g. robotic dairy
farming); novel chemicals for pest controls; new
pests resulting from climate change, changing
weather, increasing size of farms.A34, A35, A36
30. Waste
managementCollection, sorting and
processing of waste for
recycling or for energy
productionReduced
environmental
pollution;
provides material
for recyclingManual handling risks during
collection and sorting; exposure to
chemicals and microorganisms during
collection, sorting and processing; /f_ire
and explosion risks from processing;
new materials, when being collected
as waste, may present a  variety
of unknown risks linked to (new)
dangerous substances they may
contain; land /f_ill mining will increase
exposure to harmful materials.Waste management activities will increase, driven by
government targets to reduce land /f_ill and to meet
increasing requirements to recycle. Land /f_ill mining is
likely to increase.A51, A52

Annexes
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 191Technology Subtopics Green credentials Health and safety aspects Potential for developmentReferences
(next section)
31. Recycling
technologiesRecycling of materials
and componentsRecycling reduces
energy use,
conserves natural
resourcesNew recycling technologies may
introduce new risks; new materials,
when being recycled, may present
a variety of unknown risks linked to
(new) dangerous substances they
may contain.New technologies will be developed to improve
recycling. Greater emphasis on advanced processes
that preserve the performance qualities of materials.
Recycling of novel materials and devices may
present new hazards.A37, A51, A52
32. Environmental
Remediation
TechnologiesExcavation or dredging,
surface enhance
aquifer remediation
(SEAR), pump and
treat, solidi /f_ication
and stabilisation, in
situ oxidation, solar
vapour extraction,
bioremediation,
phytoremediationRestores polluted
areasEnvironmental remediation can
involve the handling of large
quantities of chemicals used in the
process or potential exposure to
pollutants or microorganisms.Novel techniques, introduction of nanotechnology-
based methods.A60
33.
Geoengineering
(other than
industrial CCS)Solar radiation
management (cool
roof, sulphur clouds);
ambient CO2 capture
(e.g. ocean seeding);
arti/f_icial trees (resin
towers that absorb CO2
from the atmosphere);
heat transport (ocean
pipes)Aims to reduce
global warmingUnintended consequences for the
environment; OSH hazards likely to
be associated with construction or
exposure to chemicals involved.Only limited activity to date, with controversy
around, for example, ocean seeding.A48, A49, A50
34. Medicine,
healthcare
and related
technologiesA range of techniques
to aid monitoring
of health indicators;
personalised
treatment; Improved
sensors for exposure
monitoring; ‘lab-on-a-
chip’ applicationsIncreased
efficiency,
improved
worker health;
telemedicine
could reduce the
need for travel;
applicability to
green/non-green
jobs alikeDevelopments in personal medicine,
improved techniques generally, will
lead to improved health and safety;
genetic testing could identify those
workers most at risk from certain
substances; developments such as
performance-enhancing drugs could
either improve or impair health and
safety performance.Continuing rapid developments in detection and
treatment. Personalised treatments. Targeted drug
delivery using nanotechnology. Developments
in bionics, human computer interface leading to
thought controlled prostheses, robotic exoskeletons,
all of which will allow people with disabilities back
into the workplace. Performance-enhancing drugs.A57, A58, A59

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192 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work References for Annex 6
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Annexes
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 195Annex 7: Phase 2 Workshop participants
Name Affiliation
Sam Bradbrook Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL), United Kingdom
Emmanuelle Brun European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU -OSHA)
Stefano Carosio D’Appolonia S.p.A., Italy
Kären Clayton Health and Safety Executive (HSE), United Kingdom
Martin Duckworth SAMI Consulting, United Kingdom
Peter Ellwood Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL), United Kingdom
Pål Evensen Booregaard, Norway
Xabier Irastorza European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Viktor KempaEuropean Trade Union Institute (ETUI)
Member of EU-OSHA’s former European Risk Observatory Advisory Group (EROAG)  (16),
representing the workers’ group
Lee Kenny Health and Safety Executive (HSE), United Kingdom
Ian McCluskey Shell Gas Ltd, United Kingdom
Geo ff Pegman RuRobots, United Kingdom
Mike Pitts Chemistry Innovation Ltd, United Kingdom
Aïda PonceEuropean Trade Union Institute (ETUI)
Member of EU-OSHA’s former European Risk Observatory Advisory Group (EROAG),
representing the workers’ representatives
John Reynolds SAMI Consulting, United Kingdom
Olivier Salvi French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks (INERIS), France
Jennifer Stack Tecnalia, Spain
Chris Streatfeild RenewableUK, United Kingdom
Erkki YrjänheikkiMinistry of Social A ffairs and Health, Finland
Member of EU-OSHA’s former European Risk Observatory Advisory Group (EROAG),
representing the government group
5
(16) The ERO Advisory Group was replaced by the Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG) in the course of the project.

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
196 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work Annex 8: Attendance at Phase 3 Technology
workshops
Wind energy workshop
EU-OSHA Wind energy workshop
Manchester (United Kingdom), 28 and 29  September 2011
Name Affiliation
Emmanuelle Brun European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Emiliya DimitrovaConfederation of Independent Trade Unions of Bulgaria (KNSB/CITUB), Bulgaria
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), representing the
workers’ representatives
Martin Duckworth SAMI Consulting, United Kingdom
Peter Ellwood Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL), United Kingdom
David Goodfellow Nordex, United Kingdom
Donna Heidel National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), United States
Paul Helm DONG Energy, United Kingdom
Julian Hubbard RES Ltd, United Kingdom
Xabi Irastorza European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Lee Kenny Health and Safety Executive (HSE), United Kingdom
Angeliki Koulouri European Wind Energy Association (EWEA)
Stephane Pou ffary ENERGIES 2050, France
John Reynolds SAMI Consulting, United Kingdom
Martin RöhrichConsultant, Czech Republic
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), representing the
employers’ group
Chris Streatfeild RenewableUK, United Kingdom
Steve Window Nordex, United Kingdom

Annexes
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 197Construction workshop
EU-OSHA Construction workshop
Manchester (United Kingdom), 29 and 30  September 2011
Name Affiliation
Emmanuelle Brun European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Stefano Carosio D’Appolonia S.p.A., Italy
Brian Cody Graz University of Technology, Austria
Emiliya DimitrovaConfederation of Independent Trade Unions of Bulgaria (KNSB/CITUB), Bulgaria
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), representing the
workers’ representatives
Martin Duckworth SAMI Consulting, United Kingdom
Peter Ellwood Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL), United Kingdom
Rolf Gehring EFBH (European Federation of Building and Woodworkers)
Donna Heidel National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), United States
Xabier Irastorza European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Carmine Pascale STRESS S.c. a  r.l., Spain
Stephane Pou ffary Energy 2050, France
John Reynolds SAMI Consulting, United Kingdom
Martin RöhrichConsultant, Czech Republic
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), representing the
employers’ group
Maria Zalbide Tecnalia, Spain

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
198 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work Bioenergy workshop
EU-OSHA Bioenergy workshop
Tallinn (Estonia), 5 and 6  October 2011
Name Affiliation
Jan Van den Auweele Laborelec Electrabel, GDF, Belgium
Emmanuelle Brun European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Emiliya DimitrovaConfederation of Independent Trade Unions of Bulgaria (KNSB/CITUB), Bulgaria
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), representing the
workers’ representatives
Martin Duckworth SAMI Consulting, United Kingdom
François EngelsFédération des Artisans (FDA), Luxembourg
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), representing the
employers’ group
Ann Hedlund Dalarna University, Sweden
Meeli Hüüs The Estonian Biomass Association, Estonia
Xabier Irastorza European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Veronika Kaidis Estonian Social Ministry, Estonia
Ülo Kask Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia
Antti Leinonen Bioste Ltd, Finland
Eckhard MetzeCommission for Occupational Health and Safety and Standardisation, Germany
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), representing the
employers’ group
Michal Miedzinski Technopolis Group, Belgium
John Reynolds SAMI Consulting, United Kingdom
Martin RöhrichConsultant, Czech Republic
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), representing the
employers’ group

Annexes
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 199Waste and recycling workshop
EU-OSHA Waste and recycling workshop
Tallinn (Estonia), 6 and 7  October 2011
Name Affiliation
Emmanuelle Brun European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Stefano Carosio D’Appolonia S.p.A., Italy
Emiliya DimitrovaConfederation of Independent Trade Unions of Bulgaria (KNSB/CITUB), Bulgaria
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), representing the
workers’ representatives
Martin Duckworth SAMI Consulting, United Kingdom
François EngelsFédération des Artisans (FDA), Luxembourg
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), representing the
employers’ group
Xabier Irastorza European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Marek Kozlowski University of Wroc ław, Poland
Antti Leinonen Bioste Ltd, Finland
Jaromir Manhart Czech Government Waste Department, Czech Republic
Eckhard MetzeCommission for Occupational Health and Safety and Standardisation (KAN), Germany
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), representing the
employers’ group
Michal Miedzinski Technopolis Group, Belgium
Milos Milunov Bipro, Germany
Aïda PonceEuropean Trade Union Institute (ETUI)
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), representing the
workers’ representatives
John Reynolds SAMI Consulting, United Kingdom
Martin RöhrichConsultant, Czech Republic
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), representing the
employers’ group
Peter Segers European Federation of Waste Management and Environmental Services (FEAD)
Carlo Vandecasteele University of Leuven, Belgium

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
200 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work Transport workshop
EU-OSHA Transport workshop
Brussels (Belgium), 2 and 3  November 2011
Name Affiliation
John Batterbee Energy Technologies Institute (ETI), United Kingdom
Tom Breen Transport for London (TfL), United Kingdom
Emmanuelle Brun European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Eduardo Chagas
(partial attendance)European Transport Workers’ Federation (ETF)
Martin Duckworth SAMI Consulting, United Kingdom
Peter Ellwood Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL), United Kingdom
Xabier Irastorza European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Viktor KempaEuropean Trade Union Institute (ETUI)
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), representing the
workers’ representatives
Uwe Likar Mitsubishsi, Germany
Arne Lindeberg Swedish Transport Administration, Sweden
Maria-Cristina Marolda
(partial attendance)European Commission Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport, MOVE C.2, Maritime
Transport, Ports and Inland Waterways
Martine Meyer Renault, France
Michal Miedzinski Technopolis Group, Belgium
Neal Parton Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL), United Kingdom
Christer Persson WSP Group, Sweden
Aïda PonceEuropean Trade Union Institute (ETUI)
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), representing the
workers’ representatives
John Reynolds SAMI Consulting, United Kingdom
Irene Wintermayr International Labour Organisation (ILO)

Annexes
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 201Manufacturing, robotics and automation workshop
EU-OSHA Manufacturing, robotics and automation workshop
Brussels (Belgium), 2 and 3  November 2011
Name Affiliation
Richard Brook Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL), United Kingdom
Emmanuelle Brun European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Stefano Carosio D’Appolonia S.p.A., Italy
Martin Duckworth SAMI Consulting, United Kingdom
Peter Ellwood Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL), United Kingdom
Xabier Irastorza European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Viktor KempaEuropean Trade Union Institute (ETUI)
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), representing the
workers’ representatives
Vasileios Lakkas Health and Safety Executive (HSE), United Kingdom
Javier Larraneta Tecnalia, Spain
Massimo Mattucci Comau, Italy
Michal Miedzinski Technopolis Group, Belgium
Björn Ostermann German Social Accident Insurance (DGUV), Germany
Aïda PonceEuropean Trade Union Institute (ETUI)
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), representing the
workers’ representatives
John Reynolds SAMI Consulting, United Kingdom
Reijo Tuokko Technical University of Tampere, Finland

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
202 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work Energy workshops — combined attendance
EU-OSHA Energy workshops
Bilbao (Spain), 9–11  November 2011
Name Affiliation
Francisco Jesús AlvarezEuropean Commission, Directorate-General EMPL.B.3., Employment, Social A ffairs and Equal
Opportunities Health, Safety and Hygiene at Work Unit
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG)
Bill Bates Health and Safety Executive (HSE), United Kingdom
Emmanuelle Brun European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Øle Busck Aalborg University, Denmark
Stefano Carosio D’Appolonia S.p.A., Italy
Martin Duckworth SAMI Consulting, United Kingdom
Peter Ellwood Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL), United Kingdom
Sebastian Gallehr Desertec, Germany
Eusebio Rial González European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Xabier Irastorza European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Viktor KempaEuropean Trade Union Institute (ETUI)
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), representing the
workers’ representatives
Guy Marlair French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks (INERIS), France
Aïda PonceEuropean Trade Union Institute (ETUI)
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), representing the
workers’ representatives
Ningling Rao DONG Energy, Denmark
John Reynolds SAMI Consulting, United Kingdom
Katalin Sas European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Elke Schneider European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)

Annexes
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 203Annex 9: Participants at Phase 3 Policy workshop
Name Affiliation
Francisco Jesús AlvarezEuropean Commission, Directorate-General EMPL.B.3, Employment, Social A ffairs and Equal
Opportunities Health, Safety and Hygiene at Work Unit
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG)
Carita Aschan Finnish Institute of Occupational Health (FIOH), Finland
Pavan Baichoo International Labour Organisation (ILO)
Laurent Bontoux European Commission, Directorate-General for Health and Consumers
Sam Bradbrook Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL), United Kingdom
Emmanuelle Brun European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Stefano Carosio D’Appolonia S.p.A., Italy
Eduardo Chagas European Transport Workers’ Federation (ETF)
Colin Connor Health and Safety Executive (HSE), United Kingdom
Martin Duckworth SAMI Consulting, United Kingdom
Peter Ellwood Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL), United Kingdom
Stephen Freeland European Federation of Waste Management and Environmental Services (FEAD)
Jan Kahr FrederiksenConfederation of Professionals in Denmark (FTF), Denmark
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), representing the
government group
David Gee European Environment Agency
Mikko Härmä Finnish Institute of Occupational Health (FIOH), Finland
Xabier Irastorza European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Viktor KempaEuropean Trade Union Institute (ETUI)
Member of EU-OSHA’s Prevention and Research Advisory Group (PRAG), representing the
workers’ group
Angeliki Koulouri European Wind Energy Association (EWEA)
Michal Miedzinski Technopolis Group, Belgium
Ina Neitzner Institute of Occupational Safety and Health of the German Social Accident Insurance (IFA), Germany
Brenda O’Brien European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Palle Ørbæk National Research Centre for the Working Environment (NRCWE), Denmark
Willem Penning European Commission, Directorate-General for Health and Consumers
Joe Ravetz SAMI Consulting, United Kingdom
Dietmar Reinert Institute of Occupational Safety and Health of the German Social Accident Insurance (IFA), Germany
John Reynolds SAMI Consulting, United Kingdom
Katalin Sas European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)
Christa Sedlatschek European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
204 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work Annex 10: Phase 2 Interview results
Figure  6: Results from Phase  2, Interview Question  3: Potential for development by 2020
02468101214Citations
Technology1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 25 24 26Interview Question 3: Potential for development by 2020
Key to Technologies
1. Wind energy 14. Hydrogen and fuel cells
2. Marine energy 15. Domestic and small-scale energy
3. Solar energy 16. Biotechnologies
4. Bioenergy 17. Green chemistry
5. Geothermal energy 18. Novel materials
6. Hydroelectricity 19. Nanotechnologies and nanomaterials
7. Carbon capture and storage 20. Robotics, automation and arti /f_icial intelligence
8. Clean coal 21. ICT
9. Other fossil fuel technologies 22. Transport technologies
10. Nuclear energy 23. Manufacturing technologies
11. Electricity transmission 24. Construction technologies
12. Electricity storage 25. Agriculture, forestry and food
13. Battery technology 26. Waste, recycling and environmental remediation

Annexes
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 205Figure  7: Results from Phase  2, Interview Question  4: Potential impact on OSH by 2020Citations
Technology1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 25 24 26Interview Question 4: Potential impact on OSH by 2020
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Key to technologies
1. Wind energy 14. Hydrogen and fuel cells
2. Marine energy 15. Domestic and small-scale energy
3. Solar energy 16. Biotechnologies
4. Bioenergy 17. Green chemistry
5. Geothermal energy 18. Novel materials
6. Hydroelectricity 19. Nanotechnologies and nanomaterials
7. Carbon capture and storage 20. Robotics, automation and arti /f_icial intelligence
8. Clean coal 21. ICT
9. Other fossil fuel technologies 22. Transport technologies
10. Nuclear energy 23. Manufacturing technologies
11. Electricity transmission 24. Construction technologies
12. Electricity storage 25. Agriculture, forestry and food
13. Battery technology 26. Waste, recycling and environmental remediation

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
206 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work Annex 11: Phase 2 Internet survey results
Figure  8: Results of potential for development scoringMean score
Technology1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 25 24 26Potential for development by 2020
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Key to technologies
1. Wind energy 14. Hydrogen and fuel cells
2. Marine energy 15. Domestic and small-scale energy
3. Solar energy 16. Biotechnologies
4. Bioenergy 17. Green chemistry
5. Geothermal energy 18. Novel materials
6. Hydroelectricity 19. Nanotechnologies and nanomaterials
7. Carbon capture and storage 20. Robotics, automation and arti /f_icial intelligence
8. Clean Coal 21. ICT
9. Other fossil fuel technologies 22. Transport technologies
10. Nuclear energy 23. Manufacturing Technologies
11. Electricity transmission 24. Construction technologies
12. Electricity storage 25. Agriculture, forestry and food
13. Battery technology 26. Waste, recycling and environmental remediation

Annexes
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 207Figure  9: Results of potential for OSH impact scoring
Key to technologies
1. Wind energy 14. Hydrogen and fuel cells
2. Marine energy 15. Domestic and small-scale energy
3. Solar energy 16. Biotechnologies
4. Bioenergy 17. Green chemistry
5. Geothermal energy 18. Novel materials
6. Hydroelectricity 19. Nanotechnologies and nanomaterials
7. Carbon capture and storage 20. Robotics, automation and arti /f_icial intelligence
8. Clean coal 21. ICT
9. Other fossil fuel technologies 22. Transport technologies
10. Nuclear energy 23. Manufacturing technologies
11. Electricity transmission 24. Construction technologies
12. Electricity storage 25. Agriculture, forestry and food
13. Battery technology 26. Waste, recycling and environmental remediationMean score
Technology1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 25 24 26Potential impact on OSH by 2020
0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
208 | EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work Annex 12: Scenario 4
Introduction
The scenario development process generated a  fourth scenario
not further used in Phase  3. This scenario was characterised by low
economic growth, weak green values and low levels of innova –
tion. With few green jobs and fewer new technologies, it was con –
sidered that this scenario would have little value in exploring the
focal question of the project (new and emerging OSH risks from
new technologies in green jobs) and was not considered further.
The development of this scenario was therefore curtailed early in
Phase  3 and the description following is not at the same stage of
completeness as the other three that were retained.
Scenario 4 Definition
Low economic growth
Low ‘Greenness’
Low levels of innovation
Despite the green rhetoric, low economic growth
means that governments do not impose the costs of green poli –
cies on electorates who are focused more on jobs and feeding
their families.
Resource use and carbon emissions are rising slowly in line with
slow economic growth.
Low economic growth
Europe and OECD countries have achieved little or zero eco –
nomic growth in real terms, and are plagued by sovereign debt
problems. The BRIC countries su ffered a  retrenchment after the
boom years of 2000–10, and reverted to the more usual boom-
bust cycles of emerging markets, averaging half their earlier rates
of growth (at around 5  % per year) Other developing countries
manage growth that more or less keeps pace with their growing
populations, so that incomes per capita are static in real terms.
Social and work aspects
People cut back on spending, and are less inclined to travel.
High unemployment and lower corporate pro /f_its has undermined
the tax base that used to allow European governments to pay for
generous welfare programmes.
People fear for their jobs.
Businesses focus on survival and reducing costs.
OSH aspects
Lower economic value assigned to human life, making it more
difficult to justify higher investments in health and safety.
Investments needed to make infrastructure and business pro –
cesses safer and more accessible are a  cost to the economy.
Slower roll-out of new technologies and new products means
that there is more time to assimilate potential new hazards and
new risks.
Low greenness
Environmental degradation is seen as an unavoidable conse –
quence of progress.
Advances in the science and improved environmental models
show that vulnerabilities to climate change and the loss of eco –
systems services will not happen for decades anyway.
Fossil fuel energy and other resources have remained available
at prices high enough to have encouraged investment in new
sources of supply. The environmental consequences of increased
use of resources (minerals, food, energy) are seen as acceptable
and necessary.
Lip service is still paid to green measures and environmentally
sound business practices, but funds for green investment are
limited to those areas that show a  positive accounting return,
particularly reducing resource use in some industrial processes
and better insulation in new buildings.
Social and work aspects
People value progress and economic well-being. They tend not
to value the environment and nature.
There are a  limited number of green jobs. Green jobs that do
exist are self- /f_inancing in that they are economically pro /f_itable
activities.
Consumers tend not to choose green products and services, and
this does not encourage green employment. Governments have
no mandate to regulate in favour of green jobs, let alone subsi –
dise them.
Picture credit: US Environmental Protection Agency, Public domain.

Annexes
EU-OSHA — European Agency for Safety and Health at Work | 209OSH aspects
OSH is seen by employers as most important in terms of its impact
on pro /f_its.
OSH is an area of low priority for governments.
Low levels of innovation
Technology is taking longer and longer to deliver on its promises.
In energy sciences, there have been few really new breakthroughs
in recent years.
Moore’s Law is breaking down as integrated circuits reach their
physical limits; biosciences continue to produce new /f_indings
and new organisms, but many products from living systems are
self-limiting in the way that overuse of antibiotics provoked the
development of resistance.
Many scienti /f_ic breakthroughs that were 10 years away in 2012
are still 10 years away.Reinforcing mechanisms
The promise that new technologies would underpin sustainable
green growth has not materialised, and faced with the choice
between long-term green outcomes and short-term economic
bene /f_its, the short-term view always wins.
High prices for resources (oil, energy, water, minerals, food),
driven by scarcity, and high costs of extraction, act as a  brake on
economic growth.
To reduce budget de /f_icits over the past decade, governments
have cut research budgets, stopped subsidising green industries,
and have systematically attacked excessive pro /f_its in industries
from pharmaceuticals to /f_inancial services.

European Commission
Green jobs and occupational safety and health:
Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020
Report
Luxembourg: Publications O ffice of the European Union
2013 — 209 pp. — 21 x 29.7 cm
ISBN 978-92-9191-966-6
doi:10.2802/39554
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a safer, healthier and more productive place to work.
The Agency researches, develops, and distributes
reliable, balanced, and impartial safety and health
information and organises pan-European aware –
ness raising campaigns. Set up by the European
Union in 1996 and based in Bilbao, Spain, the
Agency brings together representatives from the
European Commission, Member State govern –
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well as leading experts in each of the EU-27 Mem –
ber States and beyond.
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Safety and health at work is everyone’s concern. It’s good for you. It’s good for business.Green jobs and
occupational safety and health:
Foresight on new and emerging risks
associated with new technologies by 2020
Report
TE-RO-12-003-EN-CGreen jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020ISSN 1831-9343
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