RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE ROMANIAN ENERGY SECTOR IN AN [631048]

RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE ROMANIAN ENERGY SECTOR IN AN
INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN EUROPEAN CONTEXT
Ph.D. student: [anonimizat], Romanian Academy, Calea Victoriei, Bucharest, Romania
[anonimizat]

Abstract . In the current European context, the development of the renewable energy sector stays under the sign
of the subsidies from the state. The renewable energy sector is developing fast but needs subsidies to be
competitive. The renewable technology is not matu re enough and cannot compete with the classic power plants
technology based on fossil fuel. The European energy sector is in a process of restructuring aiming to a carbon
free and clean energy. The energy transition aims to reduc e the greenhouse emission i n order to limit the global
warming to maximum 2°C until 2030.
As part of the European Union, Romania has its role in the battle with decarbonazition and has to participate to
the reduction of greenhouse emissions by contributing at the European Energy Uni on common targets.
The management process to be developed is the government. State policy implementation involves a laborious
undertaking planning objectives in the context of available technologies early and accentuation of competition in
the energy mark et.

Keywords: state policy , energy security, energy union, renewable energy, greenhouse emission, energy security
risks, green certificate scheme .
JEL Classification : Q21, Q28 , Q54 , M38

1. Introduction

One of the 10 priorities of the European Commission is Energy Union and Climate that aims to make energy
more secure, affordable and more sustainable [1]i. The European Energy Union ensures that Europe has a
climate -friendly energy. The Energy Union is abo ut the diversification of supplies and connections; as well as
about being a driver to the modernisation of the economy and investing in jobs and growth for the benefits of
businesses and citizens, while fighting climate changesii.[2]
The EU's Energy Union strategy is made up of 5 closely related and mutually reinforcing dimensions [1, 2]iii,iv:
1. Energy Security, Solidarity and trustv [3] focuses on the diversification of energy sources, suppliers and
routes, making better, more efficient use of energy produced within the EU conduct to a stro nger energy security
in Europe. Also, a better cooperation among Member States help Europe have a stronger role in global energy
markets.
2. A fully integrated internal energy marketvi [4] aims that energy should flow freely across the EU, without
any technical or regulatory barriers, using interconnectors. In this way the energy providers can freely compete
and provide the best energy prices. A fully integrated internal energy market can be achieved by connecting
markets and upgrading their software.
3. Improved Energy Efficiency aims at securing energy supply by moderating energy demand. Consuming less
energy in order to reduce pollution and pr eserve domestic energy sources will reduce the EU's need for energy
imports. The energy efficiency measures are successfully applied in the buildings and transport sectors. In order
to meet the 2030 target, energy efficiency is sustained by directives and programs such as Energy Efficiency
Directive, EPBD, Energy Labelling & Ecodesign, Strengthened financial instruments, Heating and Cooling.
4. Decarbonisation of the economyvii [5] by renewing the EU Emissions Trading System, pushing for a global
deal for climate change in Paris in December 2015 and encouraging private investment in new infrastructure and
technologies are the most important steps. Regarding this aim, the Commission envis ions the EU as the global
hub for developing next -generation renewable energies.
5. Research, innovation and competitiveness is focused on renewabl e energy and energy storage and in
supporting breakthroughs in low -carbon technologies by coordinating resear ch and helping to finance projects in
partnership with the private sector which are main drivers of the European energy market competitiveness.
In order to maintain a global leadership Europe needs to focus on becoming world leader in RES & energy
storage, empowering consumers, having efficient energy systems, sustainable transport systems and additional
priorities like CCS and safe nuclear energy.
The new electricity market design foundation of 2030 framework Europe is going to move from today's 16%
(27.5% of its electricity requirements coming from RES) to at least 27% renewables share (around 50% of RES
produced electricity). This new electricity market design needs to make this happen at the lowest cost by
removing the remaining obstacles to better integrate renewables into the internal market. [4]

On 25 February 2015, the Commission adopted "A Framework Strategy for a Resilient Energy Union with a
Forward -Looking Climate Change Policy". The publication of this strategy created a new momentum to bring
about the transition to a low -carbon, secure and competitive economy and to deliver on one of the 10 priorities of
the Juncker Commission [6]viii.

2. European energy targets

As regards climate change, the long term goal agreed in the context of the UNFCCC is to limit the global
average temperature increase to below 2°C compared to pre -industrial levels, which guides the EU's climate
action. In line wit h scientific findings reported by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the
fourth Assessment Report, the European Council stated in 2009 that the EU's objective, in the context of
necessary reductions by developed countries as a group, is to reduce GHG emissions by 80 -95% in 2050
compared to 1990. The European Council also endorsed the objective to ensure that global emissions reach a
peak by 2020 and are reduced by at least 50% compared to 1990 in order to increase the chances of avoiding
climate change. [10]
The Commission proposes new rules for consumer centred clean energy transition . [7] ix
On several occasions , the European Council has encouraged the Commission to review and develop legislation
related i.a. to renewables to underpin the agreed 2030 target. The European Parliament has also called upon the
Commission to present the renewable energy legislation and to increase even further the ambition level to at least
30%. [14]
The European Parliament, in its Resolutions on "A policy frame work for climate and energy in the period from
2020 to 2030" and on "the Renewable energy progress report", has favoured a binding Union 2030 target of at
least 30% of total final energy consumption from renewable energy sources, stressing that that target should
be implemented by means of individual national targets taking into account the individual situation and potential
of each Member State. [14]
The European Commission wants the EU to lead the clean energy transition, not only adapt to it. For this re ason
the EU has committed to cut CO 2 emissions by at least 40% by 2030 while modernising the EU's economy and
delivering on jobs and growth for all European citizens. The proposals have three main goals: putting energy
efficiency first, achieving global le adership in renewable energies and providing a fair deal for consumers.
Consumers are active and central players on the energy markets of the future. Consumers across the EU will in
the future have a better choice of supply, access to reliable energy price comparison tools and the possibility to
produce and sell their own electricity [8]. [x].
The 2016 -2017 winter package will boost the clean energy transition by modernising our economy [9][xi].The
Commission's “Clean Energy for All Europeans” proposals are designed to show that the clean energy transition
is the growth sector of the future [ x].
The package of measures will keep the European Union competitive as the clean energy transition is changing
the global energy markets.
A 30% energy efficiency target, efficient buildings, c larified ecodesign framework and measures, smarter
finance to help Europe grow while meeting its climate goals easier. The proposal for an EU level binding target
of at least 30% by 2030 will reduce the EU's fossil fuel import bill. It will translate to jo bs and higher gross
domestic product [11].xii
Renewable electricity, cleaner heating and cooling, decarbonised transport, empowered consumers and at least
27% renewables in the EU will bring clean energy for all Europeans. Renewables are at the centre of th is
package. The transformation of global power markets is ongoing. According to the International Energy Agency,
renewable energy surpassed coal as main source of power capacity in 2015. In 2030, half of the EU's electricity
generation will come from renew ables. By 2050 our electricity should be completely carbon -free. Renewables
will play a major role in the transition to a clean energy system. Europe has set itself a target to collectively
reach a share of at least 27% renewables in the final energy consu mption by 2030. It has spearheaded global
efforts to fight climate change, and has been leading global efforts with a commitment to cut emissions by at
least 40% by 2030. It has successfully turned solar and onshore wind technologies from niche technologie s into
central players in the European power sector. This has also helped global access to cheaper and clean
technology. The Renewable Energy Directive, together with the proposals on the New Electricity Market Design
and governance, will set a regulatory framework that leads to investor certainty and allows a level playing field
for all technologies without jeopardising our climate and energy targets. [14]
In order to better accommodate the rising share of renewables, wholesale markets have to further develop and in
particular provide adequate rules allowing shorter term trading to reflect the necessities of variable generation.
Renewables producers will be able to earn revenues from the market, including system service markets that are
required to main tain grid stability and security. By introducing trading closer to the time of delivery well –
integrated short -term electricity markets will also reward flexibility in the market both for generation, demand or
storage. [14]

Renewable energy will be increasi ngly market -based, untapped potential needs to be exploited, and certainty and
visibility for investors ensured. New rules will allow renewable electricity generators to earn increasing shares of
their revenues from the market. The clean energy package wil l also guide the design for national support by
setting out framework principles to facilitate a cost -effective, market -oriented and Europeanised approach. These
principles include cross border opening of support schemes, non -retroactivity and long t erm vi sibility for the
support. [14]
The Commission's proposals will set a regulatory framework that allows a level playing field for all technologies
without jeopardising our climate and energy targets. The new regulatory framework will make sure that
renewable s can participate fully in the electricity market, but also that the market related provisions do not
discriminate against renewables. Priority dispatch will remain in place for existing renewable installations,
small -scale renewable installation and, proj ects demonstrating innovative technologies. Other installations,
independent from the technology applied, will be subject to non -discriminatory third -party access rules. In
addition, curtailment of renewables should be done last. [14]
The Commission propos es a robust Energy Union Governance to ensure that the Energy Union Strategy
objectives across all five dimensions, and in particular the 2030 energy and climate targets, are met. A
partnership is put in place with Member States to monitor the progress tow ards the 2030 target. [14]
This governance system leads to a process of regular surveillance in which the Commission assesses the
National Energy and Climate Plans to be developed by Member States. In case the Commission detects that there
are gaps in particular as regards renewables and energy efficiency, it can propose the necessary measures to
avoid and fill any such emerging gap. [14]
Consumers are the drivers of energy transition. New technologies like smart grids, smart homes, increasingly
competi tive roof -top solar panels and battery storage solutions make it possible for energy consumers to become
active players on the market. [14]
The Renewables Directive will enable consumers to self -consume renewable energy without facing undue
restrictions, a nd ensure that they are remunerated for the energy they sell into the grid. [12]xiii

3. Energy security risk

Energy supply is defined as “secure” if it is adequate, affordable and reliable. The European Commission defines
energy security in its Green Paper as the “uninterrupted physical availability of energy products on the market, at
a price which is affordable for all consumers (private and industrial)”. [15]
Two broad themes can be identified that are relevant to energy security, whether for current syst ems or for the
planning of future renewable energy systems: availability and distribution of resources, and variability and
reliability of energy supply. Given the interdependence of economic growth and energy consumption, access to a
stable energy supply is a major political concern and a technical and economic challenge facing both developed
and developing economies, since prolonged disruptions would create serious economic and basic functionality
problems for most societies. [16]
Energy security risks ca n be categorised as [15]:
a) Energy market instabilities caused by unforeseen changes in geopolitical or other external factors, or
compounded by fossil fuel resource concentration;
b) Technical failures such as power “outages” (blackouts and brownouts) caused by grid or generation plant
malfunction; and
c) Physical security threats such as terrorists, sabotage, theft or piracy, as well as natural disasters (earthquakes,
hurricanes, volcanic eruptions, the effects of climate change etc.).
The impact and perception of energy security risks differ across countries.
In order to prevent significant impacts from energy insecurity, governments can diversify their energy sources.
In the long term, the potential for fossil fuel scarcity and decreasing quality of fossil reserves represents an
important reason for a transition to a sustainable worldwide renewable energy system. [16]
Renewable energy can contribute to the security of supply of all these energy forms and in addition reduce
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissio ns when displacing fossil fuels. This makes it all the more important to pursue
policies for research, development and deployment (RD&D) that can progressively reduce the costs of
renewables so that, with appropriate credit for carbon saving, they can be e stablished as technologies of choice.
Concerns about limited availability and distribution of resources are also a critical component of energy security
in the short term. All else being equal, the more reliant an energy system is on a single energy source , the more
susceptible the energy system is to serious disruptions. Examples include disruptions to oil supply, unexpectedly
large and widespread periods of low wind or solar insolation (e.g., due to weather), or the emergence of
unintended consequences of any supply source. [16]
Dependence on energy imports, whether of fossil fuels or the technology needed for implementation of
renewable energy, represents a potential source of energy insecurity for both developing and industrialized
countries. [16]

Nevertheless, the implications of renewables for energy supply security differ between the electricity, heat and
transport sectors. [15]
For electricity, introducing a broad portfolio of renewable energy – hydro, geothermal, bioenergy, solar and wind
energ y – generating plants into the system, and establishing a decentralised power generation system can provide
more security, especially where many small to medium generating plants can be located close to the load. [15]
Renewables can reduce geopolitical sec urity risks by contributing to fuel mix diversification.
Their risks are different from those of fossil fuel supply risks, and they can reduce the variability of generation
costs. Biomass can be an exception although imported bioenergy feedstocks usually d iversify import portfolios.
The advantage of renewables is that they can address environmental as well as security objectives. [15]
Energy efficiency improvements through demand side management and technological innovation can cost –
effectively mitigate the large -scale impact of energy supply disruptions in the electricity and heat sectors, and to
a limited degree in the transport sector too. Demand side management and energy efficiency measures can
reduce dependence on conventional fuels for the production of electricity, heat and transport fuels. [15]
However, renewable energy can also make a contribution to increasing the reliability of energy services, in
particular in remote and rural areas that often suffer from insuffi cient grid access. Irrespective, a diverse
portfolio of energy sources, together with good management and system design (for example, including
geographical diversity of sources where appropriate) can help to enhance security. [16]
Also, economic development has been strongly correlated w ith increasing energy use and growth of greenhouse
gas emissions. Renewable energy can help decouple that correlation, contributing to sustainable development.
Access to modern energy services, whether from renewable or nonrenewable sources, is closely co rrelated with
measures of development, particularly for those countries at earlier development stages. [16]
Countries at different levels of development have different incentives and socioeconomic sustainable
development goals to advance renewable energy . The creation of employment opportunities and actively
promoting structural change in the economy are seen, especially in industrialized countries, as goals that support
the promotion of renewable energy. [16]

4. Romanian renewable energy sector

The grow th of renewable energy sources ( RES) has come in correlation with the onset of substantial
government support schemes which began in the 1990s and have increased at an accelerated pace over the 2000s
and 2010s. The growing prices for conventional energy together with the steady price decrease for renewable
technologies contributed to an investment boom in RES of about 1 trillion dollars globally [13]. But renewable
energy has considerable associated costs and difficulties.
Wind farms, solar parks, and other kinds of RES were developed insofar as they could rely on support schemes.
They have not yet reached the stage of economic maturity to withstand market forces by themselves. Second,
RES produce sizeable quantities of elec tricity, but mostly in a discontinuous manner; neither wind nor sunlight
generate the kind of continuous and predictable power that hydrocarbon fired or nuclear power plants do.
Romania has rich resources and diverse renewable energy distributed throughou t the country.
They will be exploited more widely as performance -price ratio of the technologies will improve the maturation
of new generations of equipment and facilities related. The electricity mix of Romania is and will be balanced
and diversified, as you can see in the below figure. [17]

Gross production structure in 2015
Total production – 65598 GWh

Source: Annual report of TRANSELECTRICA SA -2015

Now, the Romanian renewable energy sector is supported by the green certificate scheme which has been
operating since November 2011. In principle, it awards green certificates (GC) to accredited plants using RES
for each MWh of generation from RES for a period of up to 15 years from first generation under the scheme.
The number of certificates awarded vari es depending on technology. GCs trading value is limited by the law at a
price within a maximum and minimum range in order to protect both investors and consumers. Suppliers redeem
the certificates to discharge a quota obligation based on their share of to tal sales. Green certificates trading is
done on the domestic market of green certificates and is independent of electricity trading. The cost of the
scheme is therefore borne by electricity consumers through increased price of electricity. Electricity fro m RES is
taken primarily on the electricity market. [17]
Demand for green certificates is a function of the quota and the demand for electricity. The latter is driven by
consumer wealth and so can be forecasted, based on projections of GDP, adjusted for e lectricity intensity, which
falls as GDP increases.
This support mechanism resulted in a few years in the sharp rise in investment in new capacity for the production
of renewable energy. Given that short -term impact of uncontrolled increase of electricity bills due to the
contribution to promoting renewable energy affordability raises both the households and consumer industrial,
promotion system has undergone several changes. [17]
The scheme as applied in 2011 had the following changes subsequently institut ed to curb the cost [18]:
Due to an identified risk of overcompensation, wind, solar and hydro plants accedited after December 2013
receive fewer certificates per MWh generated . This in part mitigated for cost reductions in RES technology so
that new plants would not receive a return on capital in excess of that expected for earlier products. [18]
From November 2013 to March 2017, RES -E plant eligible to earn GCs and installed prior to 31 December 2013
have a proportion of the GCs deferred to between 2 017 and 2020. The proportions deferred for each technology
form are as follows:
– 1 GC per MWh for new hydro plant up to 10 MW in capacity
– 1 GC per MWh for wind power plants
– 2 GCs per MWh for solar power plants
This deferred the potential oversupply of certi ficates, but would have affected the cash flow of investments
compared to expectation at the time of investment, reducing the discounted return on capital. The resulting
projected breakdown of GC by category for 2016 is shown in table below. Due to the 12 month validity, unsold
GCs will expire at various points during 2017. While it is possible some of the GCs unsold in 2016 will find a
buyer before expiring in 2017. [18]

Forecast flow of 2016 GCs
Wind Solar Biomass Hydro
GCs awarded 11,357,783 10,061,337 2,128,281 2,254,691
GCs deferred 8,821,560
GCs redeemed 12,566,051
GCs expired (2017) 4,414,480
Source: ECA

The cost of support to suppliers from 2014 was diminished , compared to earlier expectations, by reduction the
quota for suppliers.
The reduction in obligation for energy intensive users essentially transferred the cost obligation towards other
consumers .
These changes have led to imbalances in the functioning of the support scheme and lack of predictability for
future investors.
The a ccess to the current support scheme by green certificates is though coming to an end as of December 31st,
2016.
Romania is aimed at further attracting investment in RES, capitalizing the high natural potential, respectively in
the related industry of ener gy transition. [17]

5. Conclusions

The management process to be developed is the government. State policy implementation involves a laborious
undertaking planning objectives in the context of available technologies early and accentuation of competition in
the energy market.
Romania participates in an extensive process of integration of energy markets in the EU, with the effect of a
more open competition between Member States' national actors. This raises the question of competitiveness in

electricity and ancillary services in Romania in a regional context, the impact on cross -border flows and
profitability generating capacity holders.
By developing strategies, policy -making and regulatory decisions, the state holds powerful levers for steering
investment of resources by the mix of electricity in order to meet its strategic objectives and obligations
(legislation, treaties and international agreements). [17]
Development and implementation of support schemes for renewable energies requires economic realism,
including the evolution of technologies, taking into account international competitiveness of industrial
consumers and affordability for households. The objectives targeted by Romania have been met without over –
compensating producers, but the lack of stab ility or a low level of the support schemes may jeopardize the
support of an appropriate pace of investment.
The GC scheme began with a probably over -generous payout to generators, based on expectations of high IRRs,
likely compounded by higher wholesale m arket price expectations. This led to high generator expectations and
rapid investment. This inevitably had a cost to be borne by consumers. [18]
Subsequent policy adjustments to reduce the impact on consumers had the effect of negatively impacting
generator cash flows, with an additional adverse effect of many certificates being unsaleable, because demand
had reduced faster than supply. [18]
In terms of policy measures, this means playing off reasonable expectations of generators against reasonable cost
expectations of consumers. The negative cash flows faced by generators generally in recent years (which is
unevenly split with some generators facing a disportionate share of unsold GCs and so a much worse income
than others) will almost certainly hav e to be alleviated to the extent that policy changes against their reasonable
expectations were instituted, but this can only be done at the expense of consumers (or taxpayers). [18]
The most likely policy combinations will see improved cash flow for gener ators, but at a reduced return as
compared to initial expectations; for consumers it would be through delaying payments into later years.
Achieving positive but steady cash flows requires a combination of increasing the quota and either forced
banking of c ertificates (through deferred trading of them) or voluntary banking by extending the tradable life of
certificates. The “targeted obligation” methodology in combination with extended reinsertion of deferred GCs
indicates positive cash flows are just about achieved from 2017 or 2018 for all technology and year -of-
accreditation groups with the exception of wind plant accredited in 2014 and 2015 (comprising under 12% of
wind capacity). Even this case, however, requires a substantial increase in the impact of t he GC scheme as a
proportion of consumer bills, peaking at over 11% in 2017, while real MIRRs for many technology -year groups
remain under 4.5%. [18]
The key policy issues in the Romanian electricity sector are based on t hree fundamental strategic objectiv es:
security, affordability and emissions. [19]
The s ecurity of supply – both short term and long term, must maintain a balanced, diversified power mix for the
foreseeable future and strengthen/ modernise the grid (transmission and distribution), expand in terconnection
capacity . [19]
The affordability – competitive price for industry/ services; affordable price for households . This means a
competitive, liquid, efficient power market – based also on functional natural gas market . Also, a g radual
decommissioning of the remaining old, inefficient power plants/ CHPs , market -based investments in new
capacities, with limited state interference are necessary . Other important aspects to take into account are the
careful prioritisation and timing of grid investments, avoiding excessive cost and grid tariffs and predictable and
equitable taxation and subsidies in the electricity sector. [19]
Emissions – fair contribution to EU GHG targets; limit air, water and soil pollution, while preserving
biodiversity l ike future of RES – gradual expansion of hydro, wind, solar PV and biomass/ biogas, future of
nuclear energy – Cernavoda 3 &4 (CANDU 6 technology), extension of lifetime for 1&2, future of natural gas –
gradually taking over from coal, balancing friend of RES alongside hydro and future of lignite and sub –
bituminous coal – declining competitiveness in regional market (ETS). [19]
Romania is bound in its power sector development by EU commitments and it needs to consider long term
electricity scenarios. [19]
The issues related to network development are essential in a regional perspective – EU financing for
interconnections between all countries in the region in order to ensure security of supply.
Also there are issues related to regional market coupling and in tegration – Regional market for ancillary services/
balancing, including demand side management. [19]
However, it is essential to first ensure a competitive level playing field through environmental compliance –
same standards for SOx, NOx, dust, Hg and pa rticipation in the ETS market by all countries, with similar, if any,
derogations. [19]

References:

[1] PRIORITY Energy Union and Climate, https://ec.europa.eu/priorities/energy -union -and-climate_en
[2]Vice -President Maroš Šefčovič, Visegrád Group Presidents' Summit in Rzeszów,
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[3]European Council Conclusions on the Energy Union, 19th of March 2015,
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2015/
[4] Marie Donnelly, Iceland Geothermal Conference – IGC 2016, http://slideplayer.com/slide /10816925/ ;
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[10]Commission proposes new rules for consumer centred clean energy transition ,
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[11] The Vice -President for Energy Union Maroš Šefčovič speech;
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[13] Achieving global leadership in renewable energies, http://europa.eu/rapid/press -release_MEMO -16-
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[ 14] Proposal for a D irectiv of the European Paliament and of the Council on the promotion of the use of energy
from renewable sources (recast) http://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/1_en_act_part1_v7_1.pdf
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International Energy Agency , April 2007
[16] Jayant Sathaye, Oswaldo Lucon, Atiq Rahman, John Christensen, Fatima Denton , Renewable Energy in the
Context of Sustainabl e Development , University of Dayton, 2011
[17] Romania’s Energy Strategy 2016 – 2030
[18] Submitted to Ministry of Energy of Romania and EBRD by: Economic Consulting Associates , Potential
Changes to the Romanian RES Legislation , October 2016
[19] Energy Policy Group (EPG) presentation , Key policy issues in the Romanian electricity sector , SEERmap
project meeting , Belgrade, 22 -23 September 2016