HAL Id: tel-00996394 [620138]

HAL Id: tel-00996394
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00996394
Submitted on 26 May 2014
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The influence of cognitive, learning and social
interaction skills of investors on the price formation
mechanism : an analysis helped by the conception of an
financial market simulator
Lucian Daniel Stanciu-Viziteu
T o cite this version:
Lucian Daniel Stanciu-Viziteu. The influence of cognitive, learning and social interaction skills of in-
vestors on the price formation mechanism : an analysis helped by the conception of an financial market
simulator. Business administration. Université de Grenoble, 2013. English. ￿NNT : 2013GRENG008￿.
￿tel-00996394￿

Université Joseph Fourier / Université Pierre Mendè s France /
Université Stendhal / Université de Savoie / Grenob le INP THÈSE
Pour obtenir le grade de
DOCTEUR DE L’UNIVERSITÉ DE GRENOBLE
Spécialité : Sciences de Gestion
Arrêté ministériel : 7 août 2006

Présentée par
Lucian Daniel STANCIU-VIZITEU

Thèse dirigée par Ollivier TARAMASCO

préparée au sein du Laboratoire Centre d’Etudes et de
Recherches Appliques a la Gestion
dans l'École Doctorale de Sciences de Gestion

L’influence des processus cognitif,
d’apprentissage et d’interaction sociaux
des investisseurs sur le processus de
formation des prix : une analyse grâce à
la conception d’un simulateur de marché
financier

Thèse soutenue publiquement le « 5 Juin 2013 » ,
devant le jury composé de :
Monsieur Pascal LOUVET
Professeur a l’IAE de Grenoble (Président du jury)
Monsieur Olivier BRANDOUY
Professeur a l’Université Paris 1 (Rapporteur)
Monsieur Ollivier TARAMASCO
Professeur a l’ENSIMAG Grenoble (Directeur de Thèse )
Monsieur Ion STANCU
Professeur a ASE Bucarest, Roumanie (Rapporteur)
Monsieur Hervé ALEXANDRE
Professeur a l’Université Paris Dauphine (Examinate ur)

❯◆ș❱❊❘❙ș❚❨ ❖❋ ●❘❊◆❖❇▲❊
❉❖❈❚❖❘❆▲ ❙❈❍❖❖▲ ❖❋ ▼❆◆❆●❊▼❊◆❚
❙❚❯❉ș❊❙
P ❍ ❉ ❚ ❍ ❊ ❙ ș ❙
t♦ ♦❜t❛✐♥ t❤❡ t✐t❧❡ ♦❢
P❤❉ ♦❢ ❙❝✐❡♥❝❡
♦❢ t❤❡ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ ●r❡♥♦❜❧❡
❙♣❡❝✐❛❧t② ✿ ❋ș◆❆◆❈❊
❉❡❢❡♥❞❡❞ ❜ ②
▲✉❝✐❛♥ ❉❛♥✐❡❧ ❙t ❛♥❝✐✉✲❱✐③✐t❡✉
❚❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ♦♥
t❤❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
♠❛r❦❡ts
❚❤❡s✐s ❆❞✈✐s♦r✿ ❖❧❧✐✈✐❡r ❚ ❛r❛♠❛s❝♦
♣r❡♣❛r❡❞ ❛t ❈❊❘❆● ▲❛❜♦r❛t♦r② ✱ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ❚ ❡❛♠
❞❡❢❡♥❞❡❞ ♦♥ ✺ ❏✉♥❡✱ ✷✵✶✸
❏✉r② ✿
❘ ❡✈✐❡✇❡rs ✿ ș♦♥ ❙t ❛♥❝✉ ✲ ❆❙❊ ✭❘♦✉♠❛♥✐❡✱❇✉❝ ❤❛r❡st✮
❖❧❧✐✈✐❡r ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✲ ❯♥✐✈ ❡rs✐t ② P ❛r✐s ✶
❆ ❞✈✐s♦r ✿ ❖❧❧✐✈ ❡r ❚ ❛r❛♠❛s❝♦ ✲ ❊◆❙ș▼❆ ● ✭●r❡♥♦❜❧❡✮
❊①❛♠✐♥❛t♦rs ✿ P ❛s❝❛❧ ▲♦✉✈❡t ✲ ș❆❊ ✭●r❡♥♦❜❧❡✮
❍❡r✈ ❡ ❆❧❡①❛♥❞r❡ ✲ ❯♥✐✈ ❡rs✐t ② P ❛r✐s ❉❛✉♣❤✐♥❡

❆❝❦♥♦✇❧❡❞❣♠❡♥ts
❚❤❛♥❦ ②♦✉✦
❋✐rst ♦❢ ❛❧❧ ș ✇♦✉❧❞ ❧✐❦❡ t♦ t❤❛♥❦ t❤❡ ♣❡♦♣❧❡ t❤❛t t♦♦❦ t❤❡ t✐♠❡ t♦ r❡❛❞ ❛♥❞ ♦✛❡r
❤✐♥ts ❢♦r ✐♠♣r♦✈✐♥❣ ♠② ✇♦r❦✱ ❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧❧② t❤♦s❡ t❤❛t ❛❝❝❡♣t❡❞ ❛ ♣♦s✐t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞❡❢❡♥s❡
❥✉r②✿ ✬r♦❢✳ ❖❧❧✐✈✐❡r ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ✬r♦❢✳ ș♦♥ ❙t❛♥❝✉✱ ✬r♦❢✳ ❍❡r✈❡ ❆❧❡①❛♥❞r❡ ❛♥❞ ✬r♦❢✳
✬❛s❝❛❧ ▲♦✉✈❡t✳
șt ❤❛s ❜❡❡♥ t❤r❡❡ ✭❛♥❞ ❛ ❤❛❧❢ ✮ ②❡❛rs s✐♥❝❡ ș st❛rt❡❞ t❤✐s ✇♦r❦✳ ❚❤❛t ✐s r❡❛❧❧②
❛ ❧♦♥❣ t✐♠❡ ✭ș ♥♦✇ ❤❛✈❡ s♦♠❡ ❣r❡② ❤❛✐r✮ ❛♥❞ ❞✉r✐♥❣ t❤✐s ♣❡r✐♦❞ ș ❤❛✈❡ ♠❡❡t ❛ ❧♦t
♦❢ ♣❡♦♣❧❡ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❤❡❧♣❡❞ ♦ s❤❛♣❡ ♠② ✐❞❡❛s ❛❜♦✉t ❤♦✇ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✇♦r❦s✱ ❛♥❞ ❛❜♦✉t t❤❡
✇♦r❧❞ ✐♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✳ ❍❡r❡ ✐t ❣♦❡s✿ t❤❛♥❦ ②♦✉ ✬❛s❝❛❧ ▲♦✉✈❡t ❢♦r tr✉st✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❤❡❧♣✐♥❣
♠❡ ❞✐s❝♦✈❡r t❤❡ ❜❡st ✐♥ ♠②s❡❧❢✱ t❤❛♥❦ ②♦✉ t♦ t❤❡ ♣❡♦♣❧❡ ✇❤♦ ❞❡❝✐❞❡❞ ș ✇❛s ✇♦rt❤
❣❡tt✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❞♦❝t♦r❛❧ s❝❤♦❧❛rs❤✐♣✱ ❛ ❜✐❣ t❤❛♥❦s t♦ ♠② ♦✣❝❡ ❜✉❞❞✐❡s ✭❋ r❛♥❦✱ ș♥❣r✐❞✱
▲❛✉r❛✱ ❆❧✐✱ ❙❛r❛❤✱ ❈②r✐❡❧❧❡✱ ❏❡ss✐❝❛✱ ❖♠❛r✱ ❩❛❦ ❛r✐❛✱ t❤❡ s❤❛r❦s✱ ❡t❝✳✮ ✲ ✐t ✇❛s ❛ ❧♦t
♦❢ ❢✉♥✳ ❚❤❛♥❦ ②♦✉ ❈❤❛r❧❡s✱ ▼❛r✐❡✲❈❤r✐st✐♥❡✱ ❙❛r❛❤✱ ❇❡r♥❛r❞✱ ❋❧♦r❡♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❇r✐❣✐tt❡
❢♦r ②♦✉r ♣r❡❝✐♦✉s ❤❡❧♣✳ ❚❤❛♥❦s t♦ ♠② ❢❡❧❧♦✇ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r✲❣❡❡❦s ▼❛①✐♠❡✱ ▲✐♦♥❡❧ ❛♥❞
❋ r❛♥❝♦✐s ✲ ②♦✉ ✉♥❞❡rst♦♦❞ ♠❡ ✇❤❡♥ ♥♦ ♦♥❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❞❡♣❛rt♠❡♥t ❞✐❞ ✭❜❡❝❛✉s❡
t❤❡② ❝♦✉❧❞♥✬t✮✳ ❆ s♣❡❝✐❛❧ t❤❛♥❦ ②♦✉ t♦ ▼❛r❝♦ ●❛❧❜✐❛t✐ ✇✐t❤ ✇❤♦♠ ș ✇♦r❦❡❞ ❛t t❤❡
❊❈❇ ✲ ②♦✉ r❡❛❧❧② ♠❛❞❡ ♠❡ ❡♥❥♦② r❡s❡❛r❝❤✳ ❚❤❛♥❦ ②♦✉ t♦ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ❘♦♠❛♥✐❛♥ ♣❡♦♣❧❡
ș ♠❡t ✐♥ ●r❡♥♦❜❧❡ ✲ ✐t r❡❛❧❧② ❤❡❧♣❡❞ ♠❡ ❢❡❡❧ ❝❧♦s❡r t♦ ❤♦♠❡✳ ❆♥❞ t❤❛♥❦ ②♦✉ ❦✐♥❞
r❡❛❞❡r ❢♦r t❛❦✐♥❣ t❤❡ t✐♠❡ t♦ ❧♦♦❦ t❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤✐s ❞♦❝✉♠❡♥t✳ ș r❡❛❧❧② ❤♦♣❡ ✐t ✇✐❧❧ ♦✛❡r
②♦✉ s♦♠❡ ✐♥t❡r❡st✐♥❣ ✐♥s✐❣❤ts ✐♥t♦ t❤❡ ✇♦r❧❞ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳
✬❙✿ ♦❤ ②❡s✱ ș ❦❡♣t t❤❡ ❜❡st ❢♦r t❤❡ ❡♥❞✳ ❚❤❛♥❦ ②♦✉ ❖❧❧✐✈✐❡r ❚ ❛r❛♠❛s❝♦ ✲ ș ❝♦✉❧❞
♥♦t ❤❛✈❡ ❤❛❞ ❛ ❜❡tt❡r ❛❞✈✐s♦r✳ ș ❧❡❛r♥❡❞ ❛ ❧♦t ♦❢ t❤✐♥❣s ❢r♦♠ ②♦✉ ❛♥❞ ș ❤♦♣❡ ②♦✉
❡♥❥♦②❡❞ t❤✐s ❡①♣❡r✐❡♥❝❡ ❛s ♠✉❝❤ ❛s ș ❞✐❞✳ ❚❤❛♥❦ ②♦✉ ▼❛r✐❛ ❢♦r ②♦✉r s✉♣♣♦rt ❛♥❞
❢♦r ♦✛❡r✐♥❣ ♠❡ ❛ ❤❛♥❞❢✉❧ ♦❢ ✐♥✈ ❛❧✉❛❜❧❡ ❧✐❢❡ ❧❡ss♦♥s✳ ▲❛st❧② ✱ t❤❛♥❦ ②♦✉ ●♦❞ ❢♦r ❣✐✈✐♥❣
♠❡ str❡♥❣t❤ ❛♥❞ ❤❡❧♣✐♥❣ ♠❡ ✜♥✐s❤ t❤✐s ✇♦r❦✳

✐✐
❆❜str❛❝t
❲ ❡ ❝♦♥str✉❝t ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r s✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❚ r❛❞✐♥❣ ✐♥ t❤✐s
♠❛r❦❡t ✐s ♥♦t ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✉s✳ ❚❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❢♦r♠❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦✳ ❚❤❡
♠♦❞❡❧❧❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs r❡❝❡✐✈❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ t❤❡② ❛tt❡♠♣t t♦ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ t❤❡✐r
✇❡❛❧t❤✳ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥t tr❛❞❡rs✱ ❢r♦♠ ♥♦✐s❡ t♦ ❝❤❛rt✐st ❛♥❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞✱ ❝♦❡①✐st ✐♥ t❤❡ s❛♠❡
♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❲ ❡ s❤♦✇ ❤♦✇ st②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❢♦r♠❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ♣r❡s❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❝❤❛rt✐sts ♦r ❛
s✐♠♣❧❡ ❧❛❣ ✐♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ Pr✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❝❛♥ ❛r✐s❡ ✇❤❡♥ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡
❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡❞ ❜② t❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧ tr❛❞❡rs✳ ș♥t❡r❡st✐♥❣❧② ✇❡ s❤♦✇ t❤❛t ✇❡❧❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
❝❛♥ ❡❛r♥ ♠♦r❡ ✐❢ t❤❡ ❛❞♦♣t✱ ✐♥ s♣❡❝✐❛❧ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥s✱ ❛ t❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧ str❛t❡❣② ✳ ❯s✐♥❣ ♦✉r
r❡s✉❧ts ✇❡ ♣r♦♣♦s❡ ❛ ♥❡✇ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❢♦r ♠❛r❦❡t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✧s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ❡✣❝✐❡♥t
♠❛r❦❡ts✧✳ ▼♦r❡♦✈❡r✱ ✇❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ t❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t ♦❢ ✧str❛t❡❣②✲str♦♥❣ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡ts✧✳
❑❡②✇ ♦r❞s ❝♦♠♣✉t❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✱ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡ts✱ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✱ ♠✉❧t✐✲❛❣❡♥t✱ s✐♠✉✲
❧❛t✐♦♥✱ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✱ st②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts✱ r✐s❦ ♠❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t

❈♦♥t❡♥ts
✶ ❘❡s✉♠❡ ❞❡ t❤❡s❡ ✺
✷ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ✶✶
✷✳✶ ❈♦♥ t❡①t ❛♥❞ ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶
✷✳✷ ș♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❝♦♥❝❡♣ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹
✷✳✸ ❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s t❤❡② ❝❛✉s❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻
✷✳✹ ❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✈s✳ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽
✷✳✺ ❘❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✵
✷✳✻ ❘❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ▼❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✶
✷✳✼ ❆ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✱ ❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❧✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤✐s st✉❞② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✸
✷✳✽ ❘❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ❛♥❞ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✺
✷✳✽✳✶ ❲❤❛t ✐s ❛♥ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r❄ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✻
✷✳✽✳✷ ❆r❡ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♣r❡s❡♥ t ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts❄ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✼
✷✳✾ ❆ ✈ ❡r② s❤♦rt ❤✐st♦r② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✾
✷✳✶✵ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✵
✸ ❖❜ ❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞② ✸✸
✸✳✶ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✹
✸✳✷ ❆s②♠♠❡tr② ❛♥❞ q✉❛❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✻
✸✳✸ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✽
✸✳✹ ❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✾
✸✳✺ Pr✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✶
✸✳✻ Pr✐❝❡ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✸
✸✳✼ ❈❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤❡s t♦ st✉❞②✐♥❣ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✼
✸✳✽ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✽
✹ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✺✶
✹✳✶ ❈♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✶
✹✳✷ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✻

✷ ❈♦♥ t❡♥ ts
✹✳✷✳✶ ❉❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✻
✹✳✷✳✷ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✻
✹✳✷✳✸ ❆ ❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ♦❢ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✾
✹✳✸ ❚ ♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✶
✹✳✸✳✶ ◆♦t❛❜❧❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✷
✹✳✸✳✷ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✽
✹✳✸✳✸ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ t✐♠❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✾
✹✳✸✳✹ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✾
✹✳✸✳✺ ❇✐❛s ✐♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss✐♥❣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✵
✹✳✸✳✻ ❘✐s❦ ❛♥❞ t✐♠❡ ♣r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✶
✹✳✸✳✼ ❆❣❡♥ t ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✶
✹✳✸✳✽ ❆❣❡♥ t str❛t❡❣② ❜✐❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✸
✹✳✸✳✾ ❖r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✸
✹✳✹ ❈r✐t✐❝s ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛s ❛ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ❢♦r
r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✹
✹✳✹✳✶ ❊q✉✐✈ ❛❧❡♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛♥❞ ❛
♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✻
✺ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮ ✼✾
✺✳✶ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r✱ ❡♥ ✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥ t ❛♥❞ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✾
✺✳✷ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✶
✺✳✸ ❖r❞❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✹
✺✳✸✳✶ ❖r❞❡rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✹
✺✳✸✳✷ ❖r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✻
✺✳✹ ❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts✱ t❤❡✐r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✶
✺✳✹✳✶ ❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ t ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✶
✺✳✹✳✷ ❚❤❡ ❜✐❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✸
✺✳✹✳✸ ❚❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✹
✺✳✺ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ❝♦♥✜❣✉r❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✷
✻ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ✶✵✺
✻✳✶ ❖r♦ ♦❢ ♦❢ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t ✈ ❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥s ✲ ❇❡♥❝ ❤♠❛r❦ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✺

❈♦♥t❡♥ts ✸
✻✳✷ ❇✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✸
✻✳✷✳✶ ❇✐❛s❡s ✐♥ ✈ ♦❧✈✐♥❣ ❧❛❣s ✐♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✹
✻✳✸ ❱ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ✧st ②❧✐③❡❞✧ ❢❛❝ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✾
✻✳✹ ❇✉❜❜❧❡s✿ ❤♦ ✇ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ❣r♦ ✇ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✳ ✶✸✽
✻✳✺ ❙✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✼
✼ ❚❤❡ s❤❛r❦ ❣❛♠❡✿ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ✇✐t❤ ❜♦✉♥❞❡❞ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t② ✶✼✸
✼✳✶ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✸
✼✳✷ ❚❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✺
✼✳✸ ❘❡s✉❧ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✾
✼✳✹ ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✸
✽ ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s ✶✽✺
✽✳✶ ❖✉r ❝♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✺
✽✳✷ ▼❛✐♥ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✼
❆ ❆♣♣❡♥❞✐① ✷✵✶
❆✳✶ ❆r❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❡t❤✐❝❛❧❧② ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t❄ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✵✶
❆✳✷ ❈❡♥ tr❛❧ ▲✐♠✐t ❚❤❡♦r② ❢♦r ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✵✺
❆✳✸ ❙✐❣♥❛❧ t♦ ♥♦✐s❡ ❘❛t✐♦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✵✺
❇✐❜❧✐♦❣r❛♣❤② ✷✵✼

❈❤❛♣t❡r ✶
❘❡s✉♠❡ ❞❡ t❤❡s❡
❊♥tr❡ ❏✉✐♥ ✷✵✵✼ ❡t ◆♦✈❡♠❜r❡ ✷✵✵✽✱ ❧❡s ❝✐t♦②❡♥s ❛♠ér✐❝❛✐♥s ♦♥t ♣❡r❞✉✱ ❡♥ ♠♦②❡♥♥❡✱
✉♥ q✉❛rt ❞❡ ❧❡✉rs ❛✈♦✐rs ♥❡ts✳ ▲❡ t♦t❛❧ ❞❡s ❛❝t✐❢s ❞❡s ❢♦♥❞s ❞❡ ♣❡♥s✐♦♥ ❛ ❝❤✉té ❞❡ ✷✷✪
✭♣❡rt❡ ❞❡ ✶✳✸ ♠✐❧❧✐❛r❞s ❞❡ ❞♦❧❧❛rs✮✳ ▲❛ ♣❡rt❡ s✉❜✐❡ ♣❛r ❧❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ✐♥t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥❛✉①
❡st ❞✉ ♠❡♠❡ ♦r❞r❡ ❞❡ ❣r❛♥❞❡✉r✳ ❯♥❡ ✈✐s✐♦♥ ❝②♥✐q✉❡✱ ✈♦✐r❡ s✐♠♣❧✐st❡✱ ❝♦♥s✐st❡ ❛ ❞✐r❡
q✉❡ ❝❡tt❡ ré❝❡♥t❡ ❝r✐s❡ ❡st ❧❡ rés✉❧t❛t ❞❡ ❧✬❡①♣❧♦s✐♦♥ ❞✬✉♥❡ ❜✉❧❧❡✱ ❡♥ ❛✉tr❡s t❡r♠❡s
❝❡❧❧❡✲❝✐ ét❛♥t ❧✐é❡ ❛ ✉♥ r❡t♦✉r ❞❡s ♠❛r❝❤és ❛ ❧✬❡✣❝✐❡♥❝❡✳ ❉❛♥s ♥♦tr❡ tr❛✈ ❛✐❧✱ ♥♦✉s
♣r♦✉✈♦♥s q✉❡ ❧✬✐❞é❡ ❞✬❡✣❝✐❡♥❝❡ ❡st ✐♥❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ♣♦✉r ❞é❝r✐r❡ ✉♥ ♠❛r❝❤é ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡r✳ ❆
♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ♥♦s rés✉❧t❛ts ♥♦✉s ♣r♦♣♦s♦♥s ❧❛ t❤é♦r✐❡ ❞❡s ♠❛r ❝❤és ♣ ❛r❢♦✐s ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ✳
❯♥ ♠❛r❝❤é ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡r ❡st ❝♦♠♣♦sé ❞❡ ♥♦♠❜r❡✉s❡s ❝♦♠♣♦s❛♥t❡s ❤étér♦❣❡♥❡s ❡t
❝♦♠♣❧❡①❡s✳ ❏✉sq✉✬❛ ré❝❡♠♠❡♥t✱ ❧❡s ét✉❞❡s ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡r❡s s❡ s♦♥t ❛♣♣✉②é❡s s✉r ❞❡s ❜❛s❡s
t❤é♦r✐q✉❡s t❡❧s q✉❡ ❧✬❤♦♠♦❣é♥é✐té ❞❡s ❡s♣ér❛♥❝❡s ❞❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs✱ ❧❡✉r r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐té
♦✉ ❧✬❛❝❝❡s ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❡ ❛ ❧✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ▲❛ ré❛❧✐té ❞❡s ♠❛r❝❤és ❛✐♥s✐ q✉❡ ❧✬é✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ❞❡s
♦✉t✐❧s ❞✬❛♥❛❧②s❡ ♦♥t ♦✉✈❡rt ❧❛ ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐té ❞✬ét✉❞✐❡r ❧❡s ♠❛r❝❤és ❞❛♥s ✉♥ ❝❛❞r❡ ♠♦✐♥s
❝♦♥tr❛✐❣♥❛♥t ❡t ♣❧✉s ré❛❧✐st❡✳ ❈♦✉r ♠♦❞é❧✐s❡r ✉♥ ♠❛r❝❤é ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡r✱ ♥♦✉s r❡♠♣❧❛ç♦♥s
❧❡ ❧❛♥❣❛❣❡ ♠❛t❤é♠❛t✐q✉❡ ♣❛r ❧❡ ❧❛♥❣❛❣❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐q✉❡✳ ❆✐♥s✐✱ ♥♦✉s ❛✈♦♥s s✐♠✉❧é ✉♥
♠❛r❝❤é ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡r ❛✈❡❝ t♦✉s s❡s ❝♦♠♣♦s❛♥t❡s ✿ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❡t ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❞❡s ♣r✐①✳
❉❛♥s ♥♦tr❡ ♠❛r❝❤é s✐♠✉❧é✱ ♥♦✉s ❛✈♦♥s ✉♥ s❡✉❧ ❛❝t✐❢ r✐sq✉é q✉✐ ❛ ✉♥❡ ✈ ❛❧❡✉r
❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧❡ Vt✱ ❛✈❡❝ ❞❡s r❡♥t❛❜✐❧✐tés ♥♦r♠❛❧❡♠❡♥t ❞✐str✐❜✉é❡s✳ ❈❡tt❡ ✈ ❛❧❡✉r ❢♦♥❞❛✲
♠❡♥t❛❧❡ ❡st ✉♥ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t t❤é♦r✐q✉❡ q✉✐ ♥♦✉s ❛✐❞❡ ❛ ❝♦♥str✉✐r❡ ✉♥ ✢✉① ❞✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❛✈❡❝ ✉♥ s❡♥s ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡r✳ ❖♥ ❞é✜♥✐t ❧✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❢❛✐t❡ ❝♦♠♠❡ It=Pt−Vt+1 ✳ ❆
♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❧✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ It ❧❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs✱ ✈✐❛ ❧❡✉rs ♦r❞r❡s✱ ✈♦♥t ❝ré❡r ❧❡ ♥♦✉✈❡❛✉①
♣r✐① ❞❡ ♠❛r❝❤é Pt+1 q✉❡ ❧✬♦♥ ♣❡✉t ❝♦♥s✐❞ér❡r ❝♦♠♠❡ ❧✬❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡ ♠❛r❝❤é ❞❡ ❧❛
✈ ❛❧❡✉r ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ Vt+1 ✳ ❚ ❡♥❛♥t ❝♦♠♣t❡ ❞❡ ❧✬❤étér♦❣é♥é✐té ❞❡s ✐♥t❡r♣rét❛t✐♦♥s ❡t
❞❡s ❜✐❛✐s ❞❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs✱ ❝❤❛❝✉♥ ✈ ❛ r❡❝❡✈♦✐r ✉♥❡ ✈❡rs✐♦♥ ♠♦❞✐✜é❡ ❞❡ ❧✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
♣❛r❢❛✐t❡✳ ❆✐♥s✐ ❧✬✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉r ① ✈ ❛ r❡❝❡✈♦✐r ❧✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ Ix,t=ax∗It+bx ✳ ▲❡s
♣❛r❛♠❡tr❡s ax ❡tbx ♥♦✉s ♣❡r♠❡tt❡♥t ❞❡ ❝ré❡r ✉♥❡ ❧❛r❣❡ ✈ ❛r✐été ❞❡ ❝♦♠♣♦rt❡♠❡♥ts
❞❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ✿ ax> ✶ ré✈❡❧❡ ❞❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs q✉✐ ♦♥t ❧❛ t❡♥❞❛♥❝❡ ❞✬❡①❛❣ér❡r
❧✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ bx> ✵ ✐♥❞✐q✉❡ ❞❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ♦♣t✐♠✐st❡s ❡t bx<0 ❞❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs
♣❡ss✐♠✐st❡s✳
▲❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ♠♦❞é❧✐sés ❞❛♥s ♥♦tr❡ s②st❡♠❡ ♣❡✉✈❡♥t ✉t✐❧✐s❡r ✉♥❡ ❞❡ ❝❡s ❞❡✉①
str❛té❣✐❡s✿ ✉♥❡ str❛té❣✐❡ ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧❡ ✭✐♥❢♦r♠é❡✮ ♦✉ ✉♥❡ str❛té❣✐❡ ❝❤❛rt✐st❡ ✭♥♦♥✲
✐♥❢♦r♠é❡✮✳ ▲❛ str❛té❣✐❡ ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧❡ ✐♠♣❧✐q✉❡ q✉❡ ❧✬✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉r s✉♣♣♦s❡ q✉❡ ❧❡ ♣r✐①
❡st ❜♦♥ s✬✐❧ ❡st ❞❛♥s ✉♥ ✐♥t❡r✈ ❛❧❧❡ ❛✉t♦✉r ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈ ❛❧❡✉r ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧❡✳ ▲✬✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉r

✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✶✳ ❘❡s✉♠❡ ❞❡ t❤❡s❡
✈ ❛ ❡st✐♠❡r ❧❛ ✈ ❛❧❡✉r ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧❡ ❡♥ ✉t✐❧✐s❛♥ t ❧❡ ♣r✐① ❞❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é ❡t ❧✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
r❡ç✉❡ ❛✐♥s✐✿ Ex,t(Vt+1) =Pt+Ix,t. ✳ ❊♥ ♣❛ss❛♥ t ❞❡s ♦r❞r❡s✱ ❝❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❡s♣ ❡r❡♥ t
❣❛❣♥❡r ✉♥❡ r❡♥ t❛❜✐❧✐té ♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠ rmin ✱ q✉✐ ❡st ❧❡ r❡✢❡t ❞❡ ❧✬❛ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥ ❛✉ r✐sq✉❡ ❡t ❞❡
❧✬❡s♣ ér❛♥❝❡ ❞❡s ❣❛✐♥s r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ❛ ❝ ❤❛q✉❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉r✳ ❉♦♥❝✱ ❧✬✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉r ① ✱ q✉✐ ✉t✐❧✐s❡
✉♥❡ str❛té❣✐❡ ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧❡✱ ✈ ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞ér❡r q✉❡ ❧❡ ♣r✐① ❞❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é ❡st ❜ ♦♥ q✉❛♥❞ ✐❧ ❡st
❞❛♥s ❧✬✐♥ t❡r✈ ❛❧❧❡ [L,H] ♦✉
[L=Ex,t(Vt+1)∗(1−rmin);H=Ex,t(Vt+1)∗(1+rmin)]
❆✐♥s✐ ❧✬✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉r ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛ ✈ ❡♥❞r❡ s❡s ❛❝t✐❢s✱ ❛✉ ♣r✐① ♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠ ❍✱ q✉❛♥❞
Pt> H ❡t ✐❧ ✈ ❛ ❛❝ ❤❡t❡r ❞❡s ❛❝t✐❢s✱ ❛✉ ♣r✐① ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ▲✱ q✉❛♥❞ Pt< L ✳ ❯♥
t❡❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉r ❡s♣ ❡r❡ ♣r♦✜t❡r ❞❡s ❡rr❡✉rs ❞✬é✈ ❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥ ❞✉ ♠❛r❝ ❤é✳ ▲✬✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉r
❝ ❤❛rt✐st❡✱ ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠é✱ ❡s♣ ❡r❡ ♣r♦✜t❡ ❞❡s t❡♥❞❛♥❝❡s ❞❡s ♣r✐①✳ ❯♥❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st❡ r❡❣❛r❞❡
❧❡s r❡♥ t❛❜✐❧✐tés ♣❛ssé❡s ❡t s✬✐❧ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ❧❛ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❞✬✉♥❡ t❡♥❞❛♥❝❡ ✐❧ ✈ ❛ ❡ss❛ ② ❡r ❞✬❡♥
♣r♦✜t❡r✳ ✸ ❛r ❡①❡♠♣❧❡✱ s✬✐❧ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ q✉❡ ❧❡s tr♦✐s ❞❡r♥✐❡r❡s r❡♥ t❛❜✐❧✐tés ♦♥ t été ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡s
(Rt∗Rt−1∗Rt−2>0) ✱ ❧❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st❡ ✈ ❛ ❛❝ ❤❡t❡r ❞❡s ❛❝t✐❢s ❡♥ ❡s♣ ér❛♥ t q✉❡ ❧❛ t❡♥❞❛♥❝❡
♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ ✈ ❛ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡r✳ ❚ ♦✉s ❧❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❝ ❤❛rt✐st❡s ♦♥ t ❞❡✉① r❡❣❧❡s ❞❡ ❧♦♥❣✉❡✉rs
▲✱ ✉♥❡ ❞✬❛❝ ❤❛t ❡t ✉♥❡ ❞❡ ✈ ❡♥ t❡✱ q✉✐ s♦♥ t ❞❛♥s ❞❡s sér✐❡s ❞❡ t ②♣ ❡ [a1,a2,..,aL] ❡t
[v1,..vL]✳ ▲❡s ♣❛r❛♠❡tr❡s ai ❡tvi ♣ ❡✉✈ ❡♥ t ♣r❡♥❞r❡ ❧❡s ✈ ❛❧❡✉rs ④✐♥❞✐✛ér❡♥ t❡✱ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡✱
♥é❣❛t✐✈ ❡⑥✳ ❈❤❛q✉❡ r❡❣❧❡ ❡st ❝♦♠♣❛ré ❛ ✈ ❡❝ ❧❛ r❡♥ t❛❜✐❧✐té ♣❛ssé❡✱ ai ♦✉vi ❡st ❝♦♠♣❛r❡
❛ ✈ ❡❝Rt−i+1 ✳ ◗✉❛♥❞ ✉♥❡ r❡❣❧❡ ❞✬❛❝ ❤❛t✴✈ ❡♥ t❡ ❡st ❛❝t✐✈ é❡ ❧❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st❡ ✈ ❛ ❛❝ ❤❡t❡r✴✈ ❡♥✲
❞r❡ s❡s ❛❝t✐❢s ❛✉ ♣r✐① Pt∗(1±N(µc,σc)) s♦♥ t ❞❡s ♣❛r❛♠❡tr❡s q✉✐ ❝❛r❛❝tér✐s❡♥ t ❧❡s
❡s♣ ér❛♥❝❡s ❞❡ ❣❛✐♥s ❞❡s ❝ ❤❛rt✐st❡s✳ ✸ ❛r ❡①❡♠♣❧❡✱ ❧❛ r❡❣❧❡ ❞✬❛❝ ❤❛t ❬♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡✱ ✐♥❞✐❢✲
❢ér❡♥ t✱ ♥❡❣❛t✐❢ ❪ ✈ ❛ ❡tr❡ ❛❝t✐✈ é❡✱ ❡t ❧❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st❡ ✈ ❛ ❛❝ ❤❡t❡r✱ q✉❛♥❞ ❧❡s r❡♥ t❛❜✐❧✐tés
♣❛ssé ✈ ♦♥ t ❡tr❡ ❞✉ t ②♣ ❡ [Rt>0,Rt−2<0] ✳
▲❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ✈ ♦♥ t ❡♥ ✈ ♦ ② ❡r ❧❡✉rs ♦r❞r❡s✱ ♣ ❡♥❞❛♥ t ✉♥❡ ♣ ér✐♦ ❞❡ ❞❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣✱ ❡t
❝❡❧❧❡s✲❝✐ ✈ ♦♥ t ❡tr❡ ❡♥r❡❣✐strés ❞❛♥s ✉♥ ❝❛r♥❡t ❞✬♦r❞r❡✳ ❆ ❧❛ ✜♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣ ér✐♦ ❞❡ ❞❡
tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❧❡ ❝❛r♥❡t ❞✬♦r❞r❡ ❡st ❢❡r♠é ❡t ❧❡ ♥♦✉✈ ❡❛✉① ♣r✐① ❞❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é ❡st ❞é❝♦✉✈ ❡rt✳ ❈❡
♣r✐① ❡st tr♦✉✈ é ❛ ❧❛ s✉✐t❡ ❞✬✉♥❡ ♣r♦ ❝é❞✉r❡ q✉✐ ❝♦♥s✐st❡ ❛ ❞ét❡r♠✐♥❡r ❧❡ ♣r✐① q✉✐ ✿
✶✳ ▼❛①✐♠✐s❡ ❧❡ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ❞❡s tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥s rés♦❧✉
✷✳ ▼✐♥✐♠✐s❡ ❧❡ ♥♦♠ ❜r❡ ❞❡s tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥s ♥♦♥ rés♦❧✉ ❛ ❧❛ ✈ ❡♥ t❡ ♦✉ ❛ ❧✬❛❝ ❤❛t
✸✳ ▼✐♥✐♠✐s❡ ❧❛ ♣r❡ss✐♦♥ ❞❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é s♦✐t ❛ ❧❛ ✈ ❡♥ t❡ s♦✐t ❛ ❧✬❛❝ ❤❛t✳ ❈❡tt❡ ♠ét❤♦ ❞❡
❛ss✉r❡ q✉✬✉♥ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ❞✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❡st ✐♥ té❣ré ❞❛♥s ❧❡ ♣r✐① ❡t ❝❡tt❡ ❞❡r♥✐❡r❡
♥✬✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉✐t ♣❛s ❞❡s ❜✐❛✐s s✉♣♣❧é♠❡♥ t❛✐r❡s✳
❉❛♥s ❝ ❤❛q✉❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❧❡s ❞♦♥♥é❡s ❞✬❡♥ tré❡ s♦♥ t r❡♣rés❡♥ té❡s ♣❛r q✉❡❧q✉❡s
♣❛r❛♠❡tr❡s ❝❛r❛❝tér✐st✐q✉❡s ✿
✶✳ ❧❡ ♥♦♠ ❜r❡ ❡t ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❞❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❡♥ tr❡ ❧❡s ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t❡s t ②♣ ❡s
✷✳ ❧❡ ♥♦♠ ❜r❡ ❞❡ ❥♦✉rs ❞❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥
✸✳ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈ ❛❧❡✉r ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧❡ ❞❡ ❧✬❛❝t✐❢ RFt∼N(µV,σV)

✼
✹✳ ❧✬✐♥ t❡r✈ ❛❧❧❡ ❞❡s ❜✐❛✐s ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡s ❞❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛✉① ax∈[amin,amax]
❡tbx∈[bmin,bmax]
✺✳ ❧✬✐♥ t❡r✈ ❛❧❧❡ ❞❡s r❡♥ t❛❜✐❧✐té ♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠ ❡s♣ éré❡ rx,min∈[rmin,rmax]
✻✳ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❞❡s ❡s♣ ér❛♥❝❡s ❞❡s ❣❛✐♥s ❞❡s ❝ ❤❛rt✐st❡s ❛ ✈ ❡❝ ♠♦ ② ❡♥♥❡ µc∈
[µmin,µmax] ❡t ✈ ❛r✐❛♥❝❡ σc∈[σmin,σmax]✳
◆♦tr❡ ♦✉t✐❧ ❞❡ r❡❝ ❤❡r❝ ❤❡✱ ❧❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡✉r ❞❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤és ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡rs ❞é♥♦♠♠é ▲❯▼❆✱
♥♦✉s s❡rt ❛ ❡①♣❧✐q✉❡r ❧❡s ❧✐❡♥s ❞❡ ❝❛✉s❛❧✐té ❡♥ tr❡ ❧❡s ❞✐✛ér❡♥ t❡s str❛té❣✐❡s ❞❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐s✲
s❡✉rs ❡t ❧❛ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡s ♣r✐① ❞❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é✳
◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ❞❡ r ❡ ❝❤❡r ❝❤❡ ★✶ ✿ ◗✉❡❧ ❧❡ ❡st ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❞❡s str ❛té ❣✐❡s
❞✬✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡♠❡♥t q✉✐ ♣ ❡✉✈❡♥t ♣r ♦ ❞✉✐r ❡✱ ♣ ♦✉r ❞❡ ❧♦♥❣✉❡s ♣ ér✐♦ ❞❡s✱ ❞❡s ♣r✐① ❜✐❛✐sés❄
❈❡tt❡ ♣r❡♠✐❡r❡ q✉❡st✐♦♥ ❞❡ r❡❝ ❤❡r❝ ❤❡ ♣ ♦rt❡ s✉r ❧❛ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐té q✉✬✉♥ ♠❛r❝ ❤é ♣ ❡✉t
r❡st❡r ❞❛♥s ✉♥ ét❛t ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♣ ❡♥❞❛♥ t ❞❡s ❧♦♥❣✉❡s ♣ ér✐♦ ❞❡s✱ ♠❡♠❡ ❛ ✈ ❡❝ ❧❛ ♣rés❡♥❝❡
❞✬✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs r❛t✐♦♥♥❡❧s ❡t ♣❛r❢❛✐t❡♠❡♥ t ✐♥❢♦r♠és✳ P ♦✉r ♣ré✈ ❡♥✐r ❧❡s é✈ ❡♥ t✉❡❧❧❡s
❝r✐t✐q✉❡s ❞✬❡✣❝✐❡♥❝❡✱ ♥♦✉s ♥♦✉s s♦♠♠❡s é❣❛❧❡♠❡♥ t ❞❡♠❛♥❞é s✐ ✉♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉r ❜✐❛✐sé
♣ ❡✉t s✉r✈✐✈r❡ ❞❛♥s ✉♥ ♠❛r❝ ❤é ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡r✳ ❙✐ ❧✬♦♥ tr♦✉✈ ❡ q✉✬✐❧ ♣ ❡✉t s✉r✈✐✈r❡✱ tr❡s
❧♦♥❣t❡♠♣s✱ ❛❧♦rs ♥♦✉s ❛ ✈ ♦♥s ❧❡s ❜❛s❡s ♣ ♦✉r ❞✐s❝✉t❡r ❞✬✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝❡ ❞❡s ♠❛r❝ ❤és✳
◆♦✉s ❛ ✈ ♦♥s ❞é❝♦✉✈ ❡rt q✉❡ ❧❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❜✐❛✐sés ♣ ❡✉✈ ❡♥ t ❝ré❡r ✉♥ ♠❛r❝ ❤é ❛ ✈ ❡❝
❞❡s ♣r✐① ❜✐❛✐sés ♣ ❡♥❞❛♥ t ❞❡ ❧♦♥❣✉❡s ♣ ér✐♦ ❞❡s ❞❡ t❡♠♣s✳ ❊♥ ❢♦♥❝t✐♦♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥
❞❡s ❜✐❛✐s ❞❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs✱ ❧❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é ♣ ❡✉t ❛ ✈ ♦✐r ❞❡s ♣r✐① s✉r ♦✉ s♦✉s é✈ ❛❧✉és ❛ ✈ ❡❝
❞❡s ♠❛❣♥✐t✉❞❡s ♣❧✉s ♦✉ ♠♦✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t❡s✳ ▲❛ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ♥é❝❡ss❛✐r❡✱ ❛✜♥ ❞✬❛ ✈ ♦✐r ✉♥
♠❛r❝ ❤é ❛ ✈ ❡❝ ❞❡s ♣r✐① ❜✐❛✐sés ❡st q✉❡ ❧❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❛ ✈ ❡❝ ❞❡s ❜✐❛✐s ♣ ❡✉✈ ❡♥ t ❞ét❡♥✐r
❧❛ ♣❧✉♣❛rt ❞❡s ❛❝t✐❢s ❡♥ ❝✐r❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥ s✉r ❧❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é✳
◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ❞❡ r ❡ ❝❤❡r ❝❤❡ ★✷ ✿ ❯♥ ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉r ❜✐❛✐sé ♣ ❡✉t✲✐❧ s✉r✈✐✈r ❡ ❞❛♥s ✉♥
♠❛r ❝❤é ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡r❄
◆♦s rés✉❧t❛ts ♠♦♥ tr❡♥ t q✉❡ ❧❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❜✐❛✐sés ♣ ❡✉✈ ❡♥ t s✉r✈✐✈r❡✱ ♣ ❡♥❞❛♥ t
❧♦♥❣t❡♠♣s✱ ❞❛♥s ❧❡s ♠❛r❝ ❤és✳ ș❧ ❡st ❝❡♣ ❡♥❞❛♥ t ♥é❝❡ss❛✐r❡ q✉❡ ❧❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é ♥❡ r❡tr♦✉✈ ❡✱
tr♦♣ s♦✉✈ ❡♥ t✱ s♦♥ ét❛t ❞✬❡✣❝✐❡♥❝❡✳
◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ❞❡ r ❡ ❝❤❡r ❝❤❡ ★✸ ✿ ▲ ❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❜✐❛✐sés ♣ ❡✉✈❡♥t✲✐❧s ❣❛❣♥❡r ❞❛✲
✈❛♥t❛❣❡ q✉❡ ❧❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ♥♦♥ ❜✐❛✐sés ❄
❙✐ ❧✬✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉r ❜✐❛✐sé ♣ ❡✉t s✉r✈✐✈r❡ ❡t ❧❡s ♠❛r❝ ❤és ♣ ❡✉t ❡tr❡ ❜✐❛✐sés ❛❧♦rs ♦♥
♣ ❡✉t s❡ ❞❡♠❛♥❞❡r s✐ ❞❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❜✐❡♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠és ♦♥ t ✐♥ tér❡t ❛ ♣❛ ② ❡r ♣ ♦✉r ✉♥❡
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝♦rr❡❝t❡✳ ❙✐ ♦♥ tr♦✉✈ ❡ q✉❡ ❧✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝♦rr❡❝t❡ ♥✬❡st t♦✉❥♦✉rs ♣❛s
r❡♥ t❛❜❧❡ ❛❧♦rs ❝♦♠♠❡♥ t ♣ ❡✉t✲♦♥ ❡s♣ ér❡r q✉✬✉♥ ♠❛r❝ ❤é ♣ ❡✉t ❡tr❡✱ ❛✉tr❡♠❡♥ t q✉❡ ♣❛r
❛❝❝✐❞❡♥ t✱ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t❄
❊♥ ❡✛❡t✱ ♥♦✉s ♦❜s❡r✈ ♦♥s q✉❡ ❧♦rsq✉❡ ❧❡s ❛❝t✐❢s s♦♥ t s✉ré✈ ❛❧✉és ❛❧♦rs ❧❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐s✲
s❡✉rs ❜✐❡♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠és ✈ ♦♥ t ❛ ✈ ♦✐r t❡♥❞❛♥❝❡ ❛ ❧❡s ✈ ❡♥❞r❡✳ ❙✐ ❧❡s ♣r✐① r❡st❡♥ t é❧❡✈ és✱ ❧❡s
✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❜✐❡♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠é❡s ✈ ♦♥ t ♣ ❡r❞r❡ ❧❡s r❡♥ t❛❜✐❧✐tés q✉✬✐❧s ♣ ♦✉✈ ❛✐❡♥ t ❛ ✈ ♦✐r ❡♥
❣❛r❞❛♥ t ❧✬❛❝t✐❢✳

✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✶✳ ❘❡s✉♠❡ ❞❡ t❤❡s❡
◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ❞❡ r ❡ ❝❤❡r ❝❤❡ ★✹ ✿ ◗✉❡❧ ❧❡s s♦♥t ❧❡s ❝ ♦♠♣ ♦rt❡♠❡♥ts ❞❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐s✲
s❡✉rs ❛ ❧✬ ♦r✐❣✐♥❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡ ❜✉❧ ❧❡s ❡t ❞❡s ❡✛❡ts st②❧✐sés ❄
❉❛♥s ✉♥ ♠❛r❝❤é ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡r ♥♦✉s ♦❜s❡r✈♦♥s✱ ♣❡✉t✲❡tr❡ tr♦♣ s♦✉✈❡♥t✱ ❞❡s
♣❤é♥♦♠❡♥❡s ✐♠♣♦ss✐❜❧❡s ❛ ❡①♣❧✐q✉❡r ❛✈❡❝ ❧❡s ❝♦♥❝❡♣ts t❤é♦r✐q✉❡s ❝❧❛ss✐q✉❡s✳ ❥❛r♠✐
❡✉①✱ ♥♦✉s r❡❣❛r❞♦♥s ❞❡ ♣rés ❧❡s ❡✛❡ts ❞❡s ❛✉t♦❝♦r❡❧❧❛t✐♦♥s ♥♦♥ ❧✐♥é❛✐r❡s ❞❡s ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐tés
✭♦✉ ❧❛ ❧♦♥❣✉❡ ♠é♠♦✐r❡ ❞❡s ♠❛r❝❤és✮ ❡t ❧❡s ❜✉❧❧❡s ❞❡s ♣r✐①✳ ❊st✲❝❡ q✉❡ ❝❡s ♣❤é♥♦♠❡♥❡s
s♦♥t ❞❡s ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥ts ♦✉ ♦♥t✲✐❧s ❧❡✉rs r❛❝✐♥❡s ❝❛✉s❛❧❡s ❞❛♥s ❧❡s ❞✐✛ér❡♥t❡s str❛té❣✐❡s ❞❡s
✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❄
❖♥ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ q✉❡ ❧❡s ❢❛✐ts st②❧✐sés ♣❡✉✈❡♥t ❡tr❡ ❝ré❡s ❞❛♥s ✉♥ ♠❛r❝❤é ❛✈❡❝ ❞❡s
❞✐✛ér❡♥t❡s ♣r♦♣♦rt✐♦♥s ❞✬✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❜✐❡♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠és ❡t ❞✬✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❜✐❛✐sés✳ ▼❛✐s
❝❡s ❡✛❡ts s♦♥t ❛✉ss✐ ✈✐s✐❜❧❡s q✉❛♥❞ ❞❛♥s ✉♥ ♠❛r❝❤é ✐❧ ② ❛ q✉❡ ❞❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❜✐❡♥
✐♥❢♦r♠és✱ ♠❛✐s ❛✈❡❝ ❞❡s ❞é❧❛✐s ❞✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳
◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ❞❡ r ❡ ❝❤❡r ❝❤❡ ★✺ ✿ ❊st✲❝ ❡ q✉❡ ❧❡ ❙ș❚❍ ♣ ❡✉t ❜ ❛ttr ❡ ❨❖❉ ❆ ❄ ◗✉✐ ✈❛
s✉r✈✐✈r ❡ ❧❡ ♣❧✉s ❄
❈❡tt❡ ❞❡r♥✐❡r❡ q✉❡st✐♦♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❡r❝❤❡ r❡ss♦rt ♥❛t✉r❡❧❧❡♠❡♥t ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡s ♣r❡♠✐❡rs
rés✉❧t❛ts✳ ❙✐ ❧❡s ♠❛r❝❤és ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡rs r❡st❡♥t ❜✐❛✐sés ♣❡♥❞❛♥t ❞❡ ❧♦♥❣✉❡s ❞✉ré❡s ❛❧♦rs
❧❛ ❜♦♥♥❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ é❝♦♥♦♠✐q✉❡ ♥✬❛ ♣❛s ❢♦r❝❡♠❡♥t ❛♣♣♦rté❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡♥t❛❜✐❧✐té✳ ❙✐
❞❡s ❜✉❧❧❡s s♣é❝✉❧❛t✐✈❡s ♣❡✉✈❡♥t ❡tr❡ ❝réé❡s✱ ♠❡♠❡ ❡♥ ♣rés❡♥❝❡ ❞✬✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❜✐❡♥
✐♥❢♦r♠és✱ ❛❧♦rs ❝❡s ❞❡r♥✐❡rs ♣❡✉✈❡♥t✲✐❧s ❡♥ ♣r♦✜t❡r ❄ ❯♥ ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉r ❜✐❡♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠é
✈ ❛✱ ♥♦r♠❛❧❡♠❡♥t✱ ✈❡♥❞r❡ s❡s ❛❝t✐❢s r✐sq✉és ❞❡s q✉✬✐❧s s♦♥t s✉ré✈ ❛❧✉és✳ ❆✐♥s✐✱ ✐❧ ♣❡✉t
♣❡r❞r❡ ❧❛ ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐té ❞❡ s♣é❝✉❧❡r s✉r ✉♥❡ ❜✉❧❧❡✳ ◆♦✉s ❛✈♦♥s ❝♦♥ç✉ ✉♥❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉r✱
❜✐❡♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠é✱ q✉✐ ♣❡✉t ✈♦❧♦♥t❛✐r❡♠❡♥t ❝❤❛♥❣❡r ❡♥tr❡ ✉♥❡ str❛té❣✐❡ ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧❡
✭❛♣♣❡❧é ❨❖❉❆✮ ❡t ✉♥❡ str❛té❣✐❡ ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠é❡ ✈✐s❛♥t ❛ ♦❜t❡♥✐r ❧❡ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❞❡ ♣r♦✜t✳
❖♥ ❛♣♣❡❧❧❡ ❝❡t ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉r ❙ș❚❍ ❝❛r✱ ♠❡♠❡ s✬✐❧ s❛✐t q✉✬✉♥ ❛❝t✐❢ ❡st s✉ré✈ ❛❧✉é✱ ✐❧ ♣❡✉t
♠❡♠❡ ❛❧✐♠❡♥t❡r ✉♥ tr❡♥❞ ❞❡ ♣r✐① ❝r♦✐ss❛♥t✳ ❙♦♥ s❡✉❧ ✐♥tér❡t ❡st ❧❡ ♣r♦✜t ❡t ❧✬❡✣❝✐❡♥❝❡
❞❡ ♠❛r❝❤é ♥✬❡st ♣❛s ✉♥❡ ❞❡ s❡s ♣r✐♦r✐tés✳
◆♦s rés✉❧t❛ts ♠♦♥tr❡♥t q✉❡ ❧❡ ❙ș❚❍ ♣❡✉t t✐r❡r ♣❧✉s ❞❡ ♣r♦✜t q✉❡ ❧✬✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉r
❨❖❉❆✳ ❈❡tt❡ ❞✐✛ér❡♥❝❡ ✈✐❡♥t ❞✉ ❢❛✐t q✉❡ ❧❡ ❙ș❚❍ ✈ ❛ ♣r❡♥❞r❡✱ ❞❡ t❡♠♣s ❡♥ t❡♠♣s✱
❞❡ ❧✬❛r❣❡♥t ♣r♦✈❡♥❛♥t ❞❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❜✐❛✐sés ♦✉ ❝❤❛rt✐st❡s✳
◆♦tr❡ tr❛✈ ❛✐❧ ♥♦✉s ❛♠❡♥❡ ❛ ❝♦♥❝❧✉r❡ q✉❡ ❧❡s ♠❛r❝❤és ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡rs✱ t❡❧s q✉✬✐❧s s♦♥t
❛✉❥♦✉r❞✬❤✉✐✱ s♦♥t ❞❡s ❝♦♥❝♦✉rs ❞❡ ❜❡❛✉té✳ ❈❡tt❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ❡st s✉♣♣♦rté❡ ♣❛r ❧❡
❢❛✐t q✉✬✉♥ ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉r ❛✈❡❝ ❧✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❢❛✐t❡ ♣❡✉t ❣❛❣♥❡r ♠♦✐♥s q✉✬✉♥ ❛✉tr❡
✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉r✱ ❛✈❡❝ ❧❛ ♠❡♠❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ q✉✬✐❧ ✈ ❛ ❡ss❛②❡r ❞✬✐♠✐t❡r ❞✬❛✉tr❡s str❛té❣✐❡s
✭q✉❛♥❞ ❝❡❧❧❡s✲❝✐ ✈♦♥t ❞♦♠✐♥❡r ❧❛ ♠❛r❝❤é✮✳ ❆✐♥s✐ ♦♥ ✈♦✐t q✉✬✐❧ ♥✬② ❛ ♣❛s t♦✉❥♦✉rs
❞✬✐♥tér❡t ❛ s♣é❝✉❧❡r ❡♥ ❢❛✈❡✉r ❞✬✉♥ ♣r✐① ❞❡ ♠❛r❝❤é ❝♦rr❡❝t ✭r❡❧❛t✐✈❡♠❡♥t ❛✉① ❢♦♥✲
❞❛♠❡♥t❛✉① é❝♦♥♦♠✐q✉❡s ❞❡ ❧✬❛❝t✐❢ s♦✉s✲❥❛❝❡♥t✮✳ ❥♦✉r t✐r❡r ❧❡ ♣❧✉s ❞❡ ♣r♦✜t✱ ❧❡s
✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❞♦✐✈❡♥t ✉t✐❧✐s❡r ❡t ♣r♦✜t❡r ❞❡s str❛té❣✐❡s ❞♦♠✐♥❛♥t❡s✳
◆♦✉s ♣♦st✉❧♦♥s ❧❛ t❤é♦r✐❡ ❞❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤és ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡r❡s ♣❛r❢♦✐s ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t❡s ✳ ❙❡❧♦♥
♥♦tr❡ t❤❡♦r✐❡✱ ❧❡s ♠❛r❝❤és ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡rs s❡ tr♦✉✈❡♥t ❞❛♥s ✉♥ ♠♦✉✈❡♠❡♥t ❝♦♥t✐♥✉ ❡♥tr❡
❞❡✉① ét❛ts ❞✬éq✉✐❧✐❜r❡ ✐♥st❛❜❧❡ ✿ ✉♥ ét❛t ❞✬❡✣❝✐❡♥❝❡ ❡t ✉♥ ét❛t ❞✬✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡
✭❧❡ ♣r✐① ❞❡ ♠❛r❝❤é ❛ ❛❧♦rs ❛✉❝✉♥❡ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈❡ ❛✈❡❝ ❧❡s ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛✉① ❞✬❛❝t✐❢

✾
s♦✉s✲❥❛❝❡♥ t✮✳ ❈❡ ♠♦✉✈ ❡♠❡♥ t ❡st ❝❛✉sé ♣❛r ❧❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❝ ❤❡r❝ ❤❛♥ t ❞❡s ♣r♦✜ts
s✉♣♣❧é♠❡♥ t❛✐r❡s ❡t ❛❞❛♣t❛♥ t ❧❡✉rs str❛té❣✐❡s ✭♣❧✉s ♦✉ ♠♦✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠é❡s ❡♥ ❢♦♥❝t✐♦♥ ❞✉
❝♦♥ t❡①t❡ ❞❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é✮✳ ❙✉✐t❡ ❛ ❝❡tt❡ t❤❡♦r✐❡✱ ♥♦✉s ♣r♦♣ ♦s♦♥s ❝♦♠♠❡ ♥♦✉✈ ❡❛✉ ♠❡s✉r❡
❞❡ r✐sq✉❡ ❧❡ ♥✐✈ ❡❛✉ ❞✬❡✣❝✐❡♥❝❡ ❞✬✉♥ ♠❛r❝ ❤é✳ ❈❡ ♥✐✈ ❡❛✉ ❞✬❡✣❝✐❡♥❝❡ ❞❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é ♣ ❡✉t
❡tr❡ ♠❡s✉ré✱ ✐♥❞✐r❡❝t❡♠❡♥ t ❡t ❛ ✈ ❡❝ ❧✬❛✐❞❡ ❞❡s s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡✉rs ❞❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é✱ ❡♥ ❡st✐♠❛♥ t ❧❡s
♣r♦♣ ♦rt✐♦♥s r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡s ❞❡s ❞✐✛ér❡♥ t❡s str❛té❣✐❡s ✉t✐❧✐sé❡s ❞❛♥s ❧❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é✳

❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷
ș♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥
❈♦♥t❡♥ts
✷✳✶ ❈♦♥ t❡①t ❛♥❞ ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶
✷✳✷ ș♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❝♦♥❝❡♣ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹
✷✳✸ ❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s t❤❡② ❝❛✉s❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻
✷✳✹ ❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✈s✳ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽
✷✳✺ ❘❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✵
✷✳✻ ❘❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ▼❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✶
✷✳✼ ❆ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✱ ❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❧✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤✐s st✉❞② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✸
✷✳✽ ❘❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ❛♥❞ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✺
✷✳✽✳✶ ❲❤❛t ✐s ❛♥ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r❄ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✻
✷✳✽✳✷ ❆r❡ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♣r❡s❡♥ t ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts❄ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✼
✷✳✾ ❆ ✈ ❡r② s❤♦rt ❤✐st♦r② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✾
✷✳✶✵ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✵
✷✳✶ ❈♦♥t❡①t ❛♥❞ ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t✐♦♥
❚❤❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ✷✵✵✽✲✷✵✶✷ ♦✛❡rs ❛ ❧❛♥❞s❝❛♣❡ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝r✐s✐s✿ ❢r♦♠ ❞❡❜t ❝r✐s✐s t♦ ❜❛♥❦
❝r✐s✐s ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ✇✐t❤ st❛t❡ ❞❡❜t ❝r✐s✐s✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❡✈❡♥ts ✇❡r❡ ❡♥❝♦✉r❛❣❡❞ ❛♥❞ s✉st❛✐♥❡❞ ❜②
♣♦❧✐t✐❝❛❧✱ ❧❡❣❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❢❛❝t♦rs ❜✉t t❤❡② ✇❡r❡ ❞✐r❡❝t❧② ❝❛✉s❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥t
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳
❚❤❡ ❡♣✐❝ ❢❛❧❧ ♦❢ ▲❡❤♠❛♥ ❇r♦t❤❡rs ❜❛♥❦✶✱ ✐♥ ❆✉❣✉st ✷✵✵✼✱ r❡✈❡❛❧❡❞ t❤❡ s②st❡♠✐❝
❢r❛❣✐❧✐t② ♦❢ t❤❡ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s②st❡♠✳ ❚❤❡ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ❜❛♥❦✐♥❣ s②st❡♠ s✉✛❡r❡❞ ✐♠♣♦r✲
t❛♥t ✇r✐t❡✲❞♦✇♥s ❛♥❞ ❧❡❛❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥st✐t✉t✐♦♥s ♦♥ t❤❡ ❜r✐♥❦ ♦❢ ❜❛♥❦r✉♣t❝② ✳ ❇❛♥❦s
t❤❛t t♦♦❦ t♦♦ ♠✉❝❤ r✐s❦ ❛♥❞ ❧♦st ✇❡r❡ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ t♦ ✜❧❡ ❢♦r ❜❛♥❦r✉♣t❝② ✳ ș♥ ♠♦st
❝♦✉♥tr✐❡s✱ t❤❡ ❜❛♥❦r✉♣t❝② ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ♠❛✐♥ ❜❛♥❦s ✐♠♣❧✐❡❞ ❛ t❡♠♣♦r❛r② s②st❡♠✐❝ ❞✐s✲
tr❡ss t♦ t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠② ✲ ❞✉❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝② ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡s ♦♥ t❤❡ r❡✈♦❧✈✐♥❣ ❧✐♥❡s
♦❢ ❝r❡❞✐ts ♦✛❡r❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ❜❛♥❦✐♥❣ s❡❝t♦r✳ ✬❚ ♦♦ ❜✐❣ t♦ ❢❛✐❧✬ ❜❛♥❦s ❛r❡ s❛✈❡❞ ❢r♦♠
❜❛♥❦r✉♣t❝② ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❛✐❞ ♦❢ st❛t❡ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧✳ ❙t❛t❡ s♣♦♥s♦rs❤✐♣ ❤❛s ❡♥❞❡❞ t❤❡ ❜❛♥❦✐♥❣
✶❋✐♥❞ ✐♥ t❤✐s ❧✐♥❦ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡s t♦ ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ❥✉❞✐❝✐❛❧ r❡♣ ♦rt ♦♥ t❤❡ ❜❛♥❦r✉♣t❝② ♦❢ t❤❡
▲❡❤♠❛♥ ❇r♦t❤❡rs ❜❛♥❦ ✲ ❤ tt♣✿✴✴❜❧♦❣s✳✇s❥✳❝♦♠✴❞❡❛❧s✴✷✵✶✵✴✵✸✴✶✶✴❧❡❤♠❛♥✲❜r♦t❤❡rs✲❤❡r❡s✲❛✲❝♦♣ ②✲
♦❢✲t❤❡✲❝♦✉rt✲❡①❛♠✐♥❡rs✲r❡♣ ♦rt✴

✶✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥
❝r✐s✐s ❜ ② ❛ s✉❜t❧❡ tr❛♥s❢❡r ♦❢ r✐s❦✿ ❢r♦♠ ❜❛♥❦s t♦ st❛t❡s✳ ❙✐♥❝❡ ✷✵✶✵ ❝♦✉♥ tr✐❡s ❤❛ ✈ ❡
s✉✛❡r❡❞ ❢r♦♠ ❛ s♦ ✈ ❡r❡✐❣♥ ❞❡❜t ❝r✐s✐s t❤❛t s♣✐❧❧❡❞ ✐ts ❡✛❡❝ts ✐♥ t♦ ♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❡s✳
❈♦✉♥ tr✐❡s ❧✐❦ ❡ ❙♣❛✐♥✱ șt❛❧② ✱ ❇ ♦rt✉❣❛❧✱ șr❡❧❛♥❞ ❛♥❞ ●r❡❡❝❡ ❡①♣ ❡r✐❡♥❝❡ ❤✐❣❤ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ♦❢
✉♥❡♠♣❧♦ ②♠❡♥ t ❛♥❞ ❧❛❝ ❦ ❛❝❝❡ss t♦ ❝r❡❞✐ts ❛t ❛✛♦r❞❛❜❧❡ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❚❤❡ ✧ r✐s❦✲❢r❡❡✧ st❛t❡
❛ss❡t ✐s ❝ ❤❛❧❧❡♥❣❡❞ ❛♥❞ ✐ts s♦ ❝✐❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❡✛❡❝ts ❛r❡ ② ❡t t♦ ✉♥❢♦❧❞✳
❆ ❝ ❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❣r❛ ✈✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝✉rr❡♥ t ❡✈ ❡♥ ts✱ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ ❞✉t ② t♦
✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❛♥❞ ♣r❡✈ ❡♥ t t❤❡ s②st❡♠✐❝ ❝❛✉s❡s t❤❛t ❧❡❛❞ t♦ s✉❝ ❤ ❝r✐s✐s✳ ❚❤❡ ❡①♣r❡ss✐♦♥
✬s✉❜♣r✐♠❡ ❝r✐s✐s✬ ✐s ❛❞✈ ❡rt✐s❡❞ ❛s ❛ s✉✐t❛❜❧❡ ❝✉❧♣r✐t ❢♦r t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❧❞✬s ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❛♥❞
❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❡✈ ❡♥ ts✳ ❚❤✐s ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥ r❡❢❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦❢ ♠❛ss✐✈ ❡ ✬s✉❜♣r✐♠❡✬
❞❡❜t ✐♥s♦❧✈ ❡♥❝② ✳ ș♥s♦❧✈ ❡♥❝② ✐s ❝♦♠♠♦♥ t♦ ❡✈ ❡r② ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✐ts ❝♦st ✐s
r❡✢❡❝t❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❋ ♦r s✉❜♣r✐♠❡ ❞❡❜t✱ t❤❡s❡ ❝♦sts ✇ ❡r❡ r❡✢❡❝t❡❞ ✐♥ ❧♦ss❡s
❛♥❞ ♥♦t ✐♥ ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❚❤❡ ❝❛t❛❧②st ❢♦r t❤❡ ❡♥♦r♠♦✉s ❣r♦ ✇t❤ ♦❢ s✉❜♣r✐♠❡ ❞❡❜t
♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❢♦✉♥❞ ✐♥ ❯❙ ❧❛ ✇s ❞❡s✐❣♥❡❞ t♦ ❡♥❛❜❧❡ t❤❡ ❆♠❡r✐❝❛♥ ❞r❡❛♠ t♦ t❤❡
❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❆♠❡r✐❝❛♥✳ ❍✐st♦r② ♦✛❡rs ❝♦✉♥ t❧❡ss ❡①❛♠♣❧❡s ♦❢ ❧❛ ✇s✱ ❞❡s✐❣♥❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ♥♦❜❧❡
✐♥ t❡♥ t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ❢❛✐t❤✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✉❧t✐♠❛t❡❧② ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♣r❡❞❛t♦r② ❛♥❞ ❝♦✉♥ t❡r✲❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞
❡✛❡❝ts✳ ❚❤❡ ❯❙ ❈♦♠♠ ✉♥✐t ② ❘❡✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❆ ❝t ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ t❤❡ ❧❡❣❛❧ ✐♥❝❡♥ t✐✈ ❡s ❢♦r
s✉❜♣r✐♠❡ ❞❡❜ts✳ ❚❤❡ ❯❙ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s②st❡♠ ❡①♣❧♦✐t❡❞ t❤✐s ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t ② ✳
❘❛♣✐❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❧❡❞ t♦ ❛ ❤♦✉s✐♥❣ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ❛♥❞ ❛♥ ❛♠♣❧✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ s✉❜♣r✐♠❡
❞❡❜t✳ ❊①♣ ♦rt✐♥❣ t❤✐s ❞❡❜t ✇ ❛s t❤❡ ♥❡①t st❡♣ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❯❙ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s②st❡♠✳ ●❧♦❜❛❧
❝♦♥ t❛❣✐♦♥ ❜ ② s✉❜♣r✐♠❡ ❞❡❜t ✇ ❛s ❡♥❛❜❧❡❞ ❜ ② t ✇ ♦ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✿
✶✳ ❚❤❡ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✬s✉❜♣r✐♠❡✬ ❞❡❜t ✐♥ t♦ s❡❧❧❛❜❧❡ ❛ss❡ts ✭❆❇❙✮
✷✳ ❚❤❡ ❛❝q✉✐s✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ❛ss❡t ❜❛s❡❞ s❡❝✉r✐t✐❡s ❜ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❢r♦♠ ♦✉ts✐❞❡ t❤❡
❯♥✐t❡❞ ❙t❛t❡s✱ ❛t ♦ ✈ ❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡s✳
❈♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ✶✮ ✐s ❛ ♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❧❡❣❛❧ ♠❛tt❡r✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✬✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥♥♦ ✈ ❛t✐♦♥✬✱ ❛♥❞ ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡
❝❛t❛❧②st ❢♦r ❝♦♥ t❛❣✐♦♥✳ ❈♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ✷✮ ✐s r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②
♦❢ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❆ ❝q✉✐r✐♥❣ ❛♥ ② ❛ss❡t✱ ♥♦ ♠❛tt❡r t❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ✐ts ❢✉t✉r❡
❝❛s❤ ✢♦ ✇s✱ ✐s ❛ ❝♦rr❡❝t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ♣❛✐❞ ❥✉st✐✜❡s t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s
❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤ ✢♦ ✇s✳ ●❧♦❜❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♦ ✈ ❡r♣❛✐❞ ❯❙ ❞❡❜t s❡❝✉r✐t✐❡s ❛♥❞ s✉✛❡r❡❞ ❞❡✈✲
❛st❛t✐♥❣ ❧♦ss❡s ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡s❡ ❛ss❡ts s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞ t❤❡✐r r❡❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❜❛❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ ts
❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ✇ ❡r❡ ❡♥❛❜❧❡❞ ❜ ② t ✇ ♦ ❢❛❝t♦rs✿
❆ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❞✐❞ ♥♦t ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ♣r✐❝❡ ❆❇❙ s❡❝✉r✐t✐❡s
❇ ș♥st✐t✉t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❡♥ t❡r❡❞ t❤❡ ❆❇❙ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛♥❞ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ② t♦ ❢✉r✲
t❤❡r ❡♥❛❜❧❡ t❤❡ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ❆✳
❲ ❡ ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ t❤❛t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ❆✱ t❤❡ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❛ss❡t ❜❛❝ ❦ ❡❞ s❡❝✉r✐t✐❡s✱ ✐s t❤❡
❡ss❡♥ t✐❛❧ ❢❛❝t♦r t❤❛t tr✐❣❣❡r❡❞ t❤❡ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ✷✵✵✼ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝r✐s✐s ❛♥❞ ❛❧❧ ♦❢ ✐ts ❝♦♥s❡✲
q✉❡♥❝❡s✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣✱ ✐♥ t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇ ❡r❡ ❡❛❣❡r t♦ ❜✉② ❯❙ ♠♦rt✲
❣❛❣❡ ❜❛❝ ❦ ❡❞ ❆❇❙✳ ❚❤✐s ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❡♥❝♦✉r❛❣❡❞ ❯❙ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥st✐t✉t✐♦♥s t♦ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡
t❤❡✐r ❡✛♦rts t♦ ✇ ❛r❞s t❤❡ ♠♦rt❣❛❣❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❆❧❧ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ ts ✐♥ t❤❡ ❯❙ ❞❡❜t ♠❛r❦ ❡t

✷✳✶✳ ❈♦♥ t❡①t ❛♥❞ ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t✐♦♥ ✶✸
✇❡r❡ ✐♥t❡r❡st❡❞ t♦ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡ ❛ ❤♦✉s❡ ❧♦❛♥ ❛♥❞ t♦ r❡s❡❧❧ ✐t ❢♦r ❛ ❝♦♠♠✐ss✐♦♥✳ ❚❤❡ ❯❙
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s❡❝t♦r ❛❝t❡❞ ❛s ❛♥ ✐♥t❡r♠❡❞✐❛r② ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❞❡❜t ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛♥ts ✭❯✳❙✳ ❢❛♠✐❧✐❡s✮
❛♥❞ t❤❡ ✐♥t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❞❡❜t s❡❧❧❡rs✳ ❊✈❡♥ ✐❢ ❯❙ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡s ❦♥❡✇ t❤❡s❡ ❝r❡❞✐ts
✇♦✉❧❞ ❣♦ ❜❛❞✱ t❤❡② ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❡❞ t❤❡✐r ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❜❡❝❛✉s❡✿ ❛✮ ❯❙ ❧❛✇s ♣❡r♠✐ts s✉❜♣r✐♠❡
❞❡❜t ✭❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ✶✮ ❛♥❞ ❜✮ s✉❝❤ ❞❡❜t ✇❡r❡ s♦❧❞ ✐♥ ✐♥t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✭❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥
❇✮✳ ❆ ❝♦rr❡❝t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❆❇❙ ❞❡❜t ✇♦✉❧❞ ❤❛✈❡ st♦♣♣❡❞ t❤❡ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝r❛s❤
♦❢ t❤❡ ❯❙ ❤♦✉s✐♥❣ ♠❛r❦❡t✳
❲ ❡ ❜❡❧✐❡✈❡ r✐s❦ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ✇❛s t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ✬s✉❜♣r✐♠❡
❝r✐s✐s✬✳ ❨ ❡t✱ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❤❛s ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ❢♦r♠s✿ r❡t✉r♥ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣✱ r✐s❦ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✲
✐♥❣✱ ❡t❝✳ ❚❤❡ ✷✵✵✶ ș❚ ❜✉❜❜❧❡✱s❡❡ ✭ ▼♦rr✐s ❛♥❞ ❆❧❛♠ ✱ ✷✵✶✷ ✮ ❢♦r ❞❡t❛✐❧s✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛❧s♦
♦r✐❣✐♥❛t❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❯♥✐t❡❞ ❙t❛t❡s✱ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ ❛s ❛ ❝❧❡❛r ❝❛s❡ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡t ❢✉t✉r❡
❝❛s❤ ✢♦✇ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣✳ ❙✉❝❤ ❡✈❡♥ts ❤❛✈❡ ❧♦♥❣ ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥s ✭♠❡❛s✉r❛❜❧❡ ✐♥ ②❡❛rs✮ ❛♥❞
✐t ✇♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ❤❛r❞ t♦ ❛r❣✉❡ t❤❛t t❤❡② ❞♦ ♥♦t ✐♥✈ ❛❧✐❞❛t❡ t❤❡ ✐❞❡❛ ♦❢ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡ts✳
❉✉❡ t♦ t❤❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥t ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛♥❞ s♦❝✐❛❧ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s ✇❡
❤❛✈❡ ❞❡✈♦t❡❞ t❤✐s ✇♦r❦ t♦✇❛r❞s s❤❡❞❞✐♥❣ ♠♦r❡ ❧✐❣❤t ❛❜♦✉t ♠❛r❦❡t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s✳
ș♥ t❤✐s t❤❡s✐s✱ ✇❡ s❤♦✇ ❤♦✇ ❛♥❞ ✇❤❡♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ♠✐s♣r✐❝❡ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡
♥✉♠❡r♦✉s st✉❞✐❡s ❧♦♦❦ ❛t ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ❧❡✈❡❧ ❝❛✉s❡s✱ ❧✐❦❡ ♠❛❝r♦ ❡❝♦♥♦♠② ♦r ♣♦❧✐❝✐❡s✱ ✇❡
❢♦❝✉s ♦♥ t❤❡ ❧✐♥❦s ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❛♥❞ ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❖✉r st✉❞②
❞r❛✇s ✐ts t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❢♦✉♥❞❛t✐♦♥s ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ✜❡❧❞ ♦❢ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ❇❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧
✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❝r❡❛t❡s ❛ ❦♥♦✇❧❡❞❣❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞
✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ❆s ❛ t♦♦❧ ❢♦r ❛♥❛❧②s✐s✱ ✇❡ ❞❡s✐❣♥ ❛♥❞ ✉s❡ ❛ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
♠❛r❦❡t s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r✳ ❚❤✐s t♦♦❧ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡s t❤❡ ✢❡①✐❜✐❧✐t② ❛♥❞ ❢r❡❡❞♦♠ t♦ ♠❛❦❡ ❤②♣♦t❤❡s✐s
♦♥ t❤❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❧❡✈❡❧ ❛♥❞ t♦ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝ts ❛t ❛♥ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ❧❡✈❡❧✳
❆s ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ t✐t❧❡ ♦❢ ♦✉r t❤❡s✐s✱ ✇❡ ❧♦♦❦ ❛t ✇❤❡♥ ❛♥❞ ❤♦✇ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❧❡✈❡❧
❜✐❛s❡s ❝❛♥ ❛✛❡❝t t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❇❡❢♦r❡ ✇❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥✱ ✐♥
❞❡♣t❤✱ t❤❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝ts ♦❢ ♦✉r st✉❞② ✇❡ ✇✐❧❧ ✜rst ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ ♥♦t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❜✐❛s ❛♥❞ ❤♦✇ ✐t
r❡❧❛t❡s t♦ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ❆ ✧ ❜✐❛s✧ ✐s ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ❛s ❛ s②st❡♠❛t✐❝ ❞❡♣❛rt✉r❡ ❢r♦♠ ❛ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡
♣♦✐♥t✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t ♦❢ ❜✐❛s ✐s r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥t t♦ t❤❡ ♥❛t✉r❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡ ✐t
♣♦✐♥ts t♦✳ ❲ ❡ ❝❛♥ ❞✐st✐♥❣✉✐s❤ ❛ ❣r❡❛t ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡s ❧✐❦❡ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❜✐❛s✱ s♦❝✐❛❧
❜✐❛s✱ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧ ❜✐❛s✱ ♠❡❛s✉r❡♠❡♥t ❜✐❛s✱ r✐s❦ ❜✐❛s✱ ❡t❝✳ ❲ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❢♦❝✉s ♦♥ ♦♥❡ ✐♥
♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r✱ t❤❡ ♠♦st r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥t t♦ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡s❡❛r❝❤✿ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s✳
ș♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✱ ❛♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❤❛s ❛ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s ✐❢ ❤✐s ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ♥♦t t❤♦s❡ ♦❢ ❛
♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦r✳ ❆ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❝❛♥ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t ❛❧❧
t❤❡ ❛✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞✱ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ❤❡ ❝❛♥ ❞❡❞✉❝❡ t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t
r❛t✐♦♥❛❧❧② ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✳ ❯s✐♥❣ t❤✐s ❝♦rr❡❝t ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦r
tr✐❡s t♦ ♣r♦✜t ✇❤❡♥ ♠❛r❦❡ts ♠✐s♣r✐❝❡ ❛ss❡t✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳✸ ✇❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥
❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳

✶✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥
✷✳✷ ș♠♣♦rt❛♥t ❝♦♥❝❡♣ts
ș♥ t❤❡ ❝♦✉rs❡ ♦❢ t❤✐s t❤❡s✐s ✇ ❡ ✉s❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♣ts t❤❛t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣s✱
❞❡♣ ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ t❤❡ r❡❛❞❡r✬s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥ t❡①t✳ ❚ ♦ ♠✐t✐❣❛t❡ t❤❡ r✐s❦ ♦❢ ♠✐s✐♥✲
t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ✇ ❡ ♣r❡s❡♥ t ❛♥❞ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ❤❡r❡ ♦✉r ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞✐♥❣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦st ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t
❝♦♥❝❡♣ts ✇ ❡ ✉s❡✳
❚❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✱ ♦r ✐♥ tr✐♥s✐❝ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ r❡❢❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ♣r❡s❡♥ t
✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✳ ș♥ ❛ ✉s✉❛❧ ❝♦♥ t❡①t✱ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ✭❧✐❦ ❡ ❛ st♦ ❝ ❦✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ♣r♦ ❥❡❝t ♦r
r❡❛❧✲❡st❛t❡✮ ✐s s✉♣♣ ♦s❡❞ t♦ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ ❝❛s❤✲✢♦ ✇s t♦ ✐t✬s ♦ ✇♥❡r✳ ș♥ r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ✇❤♦ ✉s❡ ✬❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s✬✱ tr② t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✉s✐♥❣ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t❡❞ ❝❛s❤ ✢♦ ✇ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s ✭s❡❡ ❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❛❜ ♦✉t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥✲
t❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t❡❞ ❝❛s❤ ✢♦ ✇s ✐♥ ✭ ●r❛❤❛♠ ❛♥❞ ❉♦ ❞❞ ✱ ✶✾✺✶ ✮✮✳ ș♥ ♦✉r st✉❞②
✇ ❡ r❡❢❡r t♦ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ❛s ❛ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t t❤❛t ❤❡❧♣s
✉s ❜✉✐❧❞ ♦✉r ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳ ❚❤✐s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❤❡❧♣s ✉s ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✢♦ ✇✳
❲❤❡♥ ✇ ❡ ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ❤❛s ❛ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✇ ❡ ❞♦ ♥♦t ♠❛❦ ❡
❛♥ ② ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ♦r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✳
❊✣❝✐❡♥❝② t❤❡♦r② ✐s ❛ ❤✐❣❤❧② ❞❡❜❛t❡❞ s✉❜ ❥❡❝t ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝s✳ ș♥
♦✉r ✇ ♦r❦ ✇ ❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r t❤❡ ✭ ❋ ❛♠❛ ✱ ✶✾✼✵ ✮ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②✿ ✧❆ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝ ❤
♣r✐❝❡s ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ✧❢✉❧❧② r❡✢❡❝t✧ ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t✧✳ ❚❤✐s ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥✱
❛s ✐t ✐s ♦❢t❡♥ r❡❢❡r❡❡❞ t♦ ✐♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ t❤❡♦r② ✱ ❛❧s♦ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❡ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡①✲
♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s✳ ș♥ ♦✉r ❝❛s❡✱ ✇❤❡r❡ ✇ ❡ s♣ ❡❝✐❢② ❛ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥ tr✐♥s✐❝✷✭♦r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧✮
✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✱ ✇ ❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t t♦ ❜ ❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐❧❧
❢♦❧❧♦ ✇ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❡rr♦r ❢❛❝t♦r ✭✇✐t❤ ③❡r♦ ♠❡❛♥✮✳ ș❢ ♥♦t ♠❡♥ t✐♦♥❡❞
♦t❤❡r✇✐s❡✱ ✇ ❡ ✉s❡ t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❞ ✧❡✣❝✐❡♥ t✧ ✭✇❤❡♥ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✮ ❛s ❛ s❤♦rt ❢♦r♠
❢♦r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✭❛s ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ❋ ❛♠❛ ✱ ✶✾✼✵ ✮✮✳
ș♥ t❤✐s ✇ ♦r❦ ✇ ❡ r❡❢❡r t♦ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✳ ❲ ❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ❛s s♣ ❡❝✲
✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ❛♥ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t str❛t❡❣② t❤❛t ✐♠♣❧✐❡s ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❣♦ ❛❣❛✐♥st t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ❛ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ s❤♦ ✇✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ✐s
♦ ✈ ❡r♣r✐❝❡❞✳ ș❢ t❤✐s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜✉②s t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ✇ ❡ r❡❢❡r t♦ ❤✐s ❛❝t✐♦♥ ❛s s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡✳ ❲ ❡
❞♦ ♥♦t ✐♠♣❧② t❤❛t s✉❝ ❤ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ♥♦t r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♦r ♥♦t ♣r♦✜t✲❞r✐✈ ❡♥✳ ❚❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡rs❡ ♦❢
❛ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡✱ ✐♥ t❤✐s ❝♦♥ t❡①t✱ ❛♥ ❛r❜✐tr❛t✐♦♥ ❛❝t✐♦♥✳ ❲ ❡ r❡❢❡r t♦ ❛
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❛s ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧✐st ✱ ♦r ❛s ❤❛ ✈✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❛r❜✐tr❛t✐♦♥ str❛t❡❣② ✱ ✐❢ ❤❡ ❛❝ts
✐♥ ❛❝❝♦r❞❛♥❝❡ t♦ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❤❡ ❤♦❧❞s✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ❜ ❡❢♦r❡✱ ❛ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧✐st
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✇✐❧❧ s❡❧❧ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❤❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡rs✱ ❢r♦♠ ❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ t♦ ❜ ❡ ♦ ✈ ❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞✳
❚❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♣ts ♦❢ r✐s❦ ♣r❡♠✐✉♠ ❛♥❞ r✐s❦ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛r❡ ❝❧❡❛r❧② ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡✱ s❡❡ ✭ ❱ ❛❧❞❡③ ✱ ✷✵✵✼ ✮✳ ❘✐s❦ ♣r❡♠✐✉♠ ✐s ❛ s✉❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ✇ ❡✐❣❤ t t❤❛t
❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ♣❧❛❝❡s ♦♥ ❤✐s ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s ❢r♦♠ ❛ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t✳ ❆ r✐s❦ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥
✐s ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✬s ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✬s r✐s❦✳ ❚ ♦ s✐♠♣❧② ♦✉r ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✇ ❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ t❤❡
❝♦♥❝❡♣t ♦❢ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ ✱rmin ✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐s ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r s✉❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳
✷❚❤✐s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐s ♥♦t ❦♥♦ ✇♥ ❞✐r❡❝t❧② ❜ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❍✐♥ ts ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛r❡
r❡✈ ❡❛❧❡❞ t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss✳

✷✳✷✳ ș♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❝♦♥❝❡♣ts ✶✺
❆ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ ♦❢ ❛♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡s ❤✐s r✐s❦ ♣r❡♠✐✉♠ ❛s ✇❡❧❧ ❛s ❤✐s
❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✬s r✐s❦✳ ❲❤❡♥ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r✐♥❣ ❛♥ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ❛❝t✐♦♥✱ ❛♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r
✇✐❧❧ ✉s❡ ❤✐s ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ ❛ ❣♦♦❞ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t✳
❆ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t r❛t❡ ✐s ✉s❡❞ t♦ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ ♣r❡s❡♥t ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣❛②♠❡♥ts✳ ș♥
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t❤❡♦r② ✱ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ❛ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ♠❡t❤♦❞s t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥t r❛t❡ ♦❢ ✭❡①✲
♣❡❝t❡❞✮ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s ♦❢ ❡q✉✐t② ✱ s✉❝❤ ❛s t❤❡ ❈❆P▼ ✭ ❙❤❛r♣❡ ✱ ✶✾✻✹ ✮✳ ❲ ❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r
t❤❛t ❛ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✇❤❡r❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ ❜♦t❤ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥t
r❛t❡s ✐s ♥♦t ♣❛rs✐♠♦♥✐♦✉s✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ✇❡ ♣r♦♣♦s❡ ❛♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❝❡ss ❢r♦♠ ✇❤✐❝❤
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❞✐r❡❝t❧② ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t❡❞ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s ✳
ș♥ t❤✐s ✇❛② ✱ ✇❡ ❛✈♦✐❞ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ✐♥❤❡r❡♥t t♦ ♠❡t❤♦❞s ❢♦r s❡♣❛r❛t❡❧② ❡s✲
t✐♠❛t✐♥❣ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥t r❛t❡s✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦✉r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♣r♦❝❡ss ✐s ❜✐❛s❡❞
✭❞✉❡ t♦ ✐♥✈❡st♦r s✉❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈❡ ❝❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s✮ ♦✉r ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤ ❞♦❡s ♥♦t ♥❡❝❡ss❛r✐❧② ✐♠♣❧②
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥t r❛t❡s ♥♦r ♦❢ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s✳

✶✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥
✷✳✸ ❇❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s t❤❡② ❝❛✉s❡
❚❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ♣✉r♣♦s❡ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✐s t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ❛❧❧♦❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧✳ ș♥✈❡st♦rs
✉s❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛s ❣✉✐❞❡s t♦ ✐♥✈❡st t❤❡✐r ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠♦st ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ✈❡♥t✉r❡s✳
❘❡❢❡rr✐♥❣ t♦ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡ts✱ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛ st♦❝❦✱ ✐♥ t❤❡♦r② ✱ ✐s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞
t♦ ❜❡ t❤❡ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥t❡❞ s✉♠ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝❛s❤ t❤❛t ✇✐❧❧ ✢♦✇ t♦ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ st♦❝❦✳ ❆
st♦❝❦✬s t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ✭❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ♦r ✐♥tr✐♥s✐❝✮ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❡①♣r❡ss❡❞ ❛s✿
Ft=n/summationdisplay
i=1CFt+i
(1+rt+i)t+i✭✷✳✶✮
✇❤❡r❡ ❈❋ ✐s ❛ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤ ✢♦✇ ✭❡✐t❤❡r ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞ ♦r r❡s❡❧❧ ♣r✐❝❡✮✳ ❆♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❤❛s
t♦ ❦♥♦✇ t❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛❧❧ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤✲✢♦✇s ❛♥❞ ❛♣♣r♦♣r✐❛t❡ r❛t❡s ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥ t♦ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡
t❤✐s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ st♦❝❦✳ ș♥ r❡❛❧✐t② ✱ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ♠❛❦❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ✇❤❛t
❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤✲✢♦✇s ❛♥❞ r❛t❡s ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡✳ ❋ ♦r s✐♠♣❧✐❝✐t② ✭❜✉t ✇✐t❤♦✉t r❡str❛✐♥✐♥❣
t❤❡ ❜r❡❛❞t❤ ♦❢ ♦✉r r❡s✉❧ts✮ ❧❡t ✉s s✉♣♣♦s❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ r❛t❡ ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥ ✐s ❝♦♥st❛♥t ✐♥ ❛❧❧
t✐♠❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞✱
ri=r,∀i ✭✷✳✷✮
ș♥ t❤✐s ❝♦♥t❡①t✱ ❛♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❧♦♦❦s ♦♥❧② ❢♦r t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♥❡❡❞❡❞ t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡
❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤ ✢♦✇s ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ st♦❝❦✱ ❛s ✐♥ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠✉❧❛ ✷✳✸ ✳
Einvestor(Ft) =n/summationdisplay
i=1Einvestor(CFt+i,Information )
(1+r)t+i✭✷✳✸✮
❆♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r✬s ❛❜✐❧✐t② t♦ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤ ✢♦✇s ✐s ❧✐♠✐t❡❞ ♦♥❧② ❜② ❤✐s
✐♥t❡❧❧✐❣❡♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞✐♥❣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢❛❝t♦rs t❤❛t ❣♦✈❡r♥ t❤❡ ♣❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❛ ❝♦♠✲
♣❛♥② ✱ ❛ss✉♠✐♥❣ ❡q✉❛❧ ❛❝❝❡ss t♦ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ◆❛t✉r❛❧❧② ✱ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ❧❡✈❡❧s
♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❦♥♦✇❧❡❞❣❡✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡✐r ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❛ st♦❝❦✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
❛r❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t✳ ❯s✐♥❣ t❤❡✐r ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s✱ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝♦♠❡ t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛♥❞ tr②
t♦ s❡❧❧ ♦r ❜✉② ❢♦r ❛ ♣r♦✜t✳ șrr❡❧❡✈ ❛♥t ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠ ✐t ✐s
❝♦rr❡❝t t♦ s❛② t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✬ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡❞ ❡①♣❡❝t❛✲
t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ st♦❝❦✬s ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✭s❡❡ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ❜❡❧♦✇ ✇❤❡r❡ fpm st❛♥❞s ❢♦r ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ❛♥❞ ♠ ✐s t❤❡ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇❤♦ tr❛❞❡ t❤❛t st♦ ❝ ❦ ❛t ♠♦♠❡♥ t t✮
Pt=fpm(E1(Ft),E2(Ft),…,Em(Ft)) ✭✷✳✹✮
❊q✉❛t✐♦♥ ✷✳✹ ❛♥❞ ✐ts r❡s♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ✐s ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ❞❡❜❛t❡ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ✐♥ ♠♦ ❞❡r♥
✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ❆ ❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② t❤❡♦r② ✭ ❋ ❛♠❛ ✱ ✶✾✼✵ ✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧
❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s t❤❡♦r② ✭ ▼✉t❤ ✱ ✶✾✻✶ ✮ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐❧❧ q✉✐❝ ❦❧② ❛♥❞ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ✐♥ t❡❣r❛t❡ ✐♥✲
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t♦ ♣r✐❝❡s s♦ t❤❡② ❛❝❝✉r❛t❡❧② r❡✢❡❝t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳ ❚❤✐s ❧✐♥❡ ♦❢
t❤❡♦r② ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t ✐♠♣❧② t❤❛t ❡❛❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❤❛s ❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ r❛t❤❡r t❤❛t
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❝❛♥ s♦♠❡❤♦ ✇ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠ ❛❧❧ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ t♦ ❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞✱
✉♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞✱ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥✳

✷✳✸✳ ❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s t❤❡② ❝❛✉s❡ ✶✼
Pt=Ft+εtE(εt) = 0 ✭✷✳✺✮
❈♦♥ tr❛r② t♦ t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❢♦✉♥❞❛t✐♦♥✱ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❛s✲
s❡rts t❤❛t ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ✷✳✺ ✐s ♥♦t tr✉❡ ❛♥❞ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥ t❧② ❢❛r ❢r♦♠
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳ ❚❤❡ ❜❛s✐❝ ❛ss❡rt✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ st❛t❡s t❤❛t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❛r❡ ♥♦t ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✱ ❛♥❞ t❤✐s ❢❛❝t ❝❛♥ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s✳ ❲ ❡ r❡✲
❢❡r ② ♦✉ t♦ ✭ ❉❡ ❇♦♥❞t ❛♥❞ ❚❤❛❧❡r ✱ ✶✾✽✼ ✮ ♦r ✭ ❈♦ ✈ ❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❙❤ ✉♠ ✇ ❛ ② ✱ ✷✵✵✺ ✮ ❢♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡s
❛♥❞ ❞✐s❝✉ss✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ tr❛✐ts ❛✛❡❝t✐♥❣ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳
ș♥ ♦✉r t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❝♦♥ t❡①t✱ ✇ ❡r❡ ✇ ❡ s✉♣♣ ♦s❡ t❤❡ ❛♣r✐♦r✐ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
♠❛r❦ ❡t✸✱ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r t❤❛t ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ st❛t❡s t❤❛t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡
♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥ t❧② ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✭✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✮✳ ❚❤✐s ✐❞❡❛ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❡①♣r❡ss❡❞
✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s ✷✳✻ ✭❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❛t ❛❧❧ r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮
❛♥❞ ✷✳✼ ✭❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥ t❧② ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ r❡❣❛r❞s t♦ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮ ✿
Pt/negationslash=Ft+εt ✭✷✳✻✮
Pt=Ft+εtE(εt)/negationslash= 0 ✭✷✳✼✮
▲♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ❛❣❛✐♥ ❛t ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ✷✳✹ ✇ ❡ s❡❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❢♦r♠❡❞✱ t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❛
❞❡❞✉❝t✐✈ ❡ ♣r♦ ❝❡❞✉r❡ ✭❝❛❧❧❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r② ♠❡t❤♦ ❞✮✱ ❜ ② ❝♦♠ ❜✐♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s
♦❢ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥ ts✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ t ✇ ♦ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ❝♦♠❡ t♦ ♠✐♥❞✿
✶✳ ❈❛♥ ✭❜✐❛s❡❞✮ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡❄
✷✳ ș❢ ✶✮ ✐s tr✉❡✱ ✐♥ ✇❤❛t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ❞♦ t❤❡s❡ ❜✐❛s❡s ♣ ❡rs✐st❄
❚ ♦ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡ t❤❡ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✐❛s❡s ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t♦ t❤✐♥❦ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♣ ❡rs♣ ❡❝✲
t✐✈ ❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝❧✐❡♥ t ♦❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✿ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✳ ❲❤❡♥ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ s❡r✈✐❝❡s
♦❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ ♠♦st ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❡①♣ ❡❝t t♦ ❜✉② ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ❛t ✭❛t ♠♦st✮ ✐t✬s ❢❛✐r
✭❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧✮ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❡①♣ ❡❝ts t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐❧❧ q✉✐❝ ❦❧②
❢♦❧❧♦ ✇ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❣♦ ❡s ✉♣ ♦r ❞♦ ✇♥✳ ș♥ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
✇✐t❤ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡s✱ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❜❛r❡ t❤❡ r✐s❦ ♦❢ ♦ ✈ ❡r♣❛ ②✐♥❣ ❢♦r ❛ss❡ts ❛♥❞✴♦r s❡❧❧✲
✐♥❣ ❛ss❡ts ❛t ❧❡ss t❤❛♥ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❋ ♦r s♦♠❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ s✉❝ ❤ r✐s❦s ❛r❡
✉♥❛❝❝❡♣t❛❜❧❡ s✐♥❝❡ t❤❡② ♦♥❧② tr❛❞❡ t♦ ♣r❡s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡✐r ❝❛♣✐t❛❧✳ ❈♦♥s❡q✉❡♥ t❧② ❜✐❛s❡❞
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❡①❤✐❜✐t ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡s ♦r ♥♦ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❛t ❛❧❧✳ ▲ ❛r❛❞♦ ①✐❝❛❧❧② ✱ s♦♠❡
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs str✐✈ ❡ t♦ ❡♥ t❡r ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✇❤❡♥ ❛ss❡ts ❛r❡ ✉♥❞❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❡①✐t ✇❤❡♥ ❛ss❡ts
❜ ❡❝♦♠❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ✈ ❛❧✉❡❞ ✭♦r ❡✈ ❡♥ ❜ ❡tt❡r✱ ♦ ✈ ❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞✮✳ ș❞❡❛❧❧② ✱ s♦♠❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇ ♦✉❧❞
♣r❡❢❡r ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✇✐t❤ t ✇ ♦ ❝②❝❧✐❝❛❧ st❛❣❡s✿ ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ st❛❣❡ ✭✇❤❡r❡ ❛ss❡ts ❛r❡ ✉♥❞❡r ♦r
♦ ✈ ❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞✮ ❛♥❞ ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t st❛❣❡ ✭✇❤❡r❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ✇ ♦✉❧❞ r❡✢❡❝t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✮✳
ș♥ s✉❝ ❤ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♠❛❦ ❡ r❡t✉r♥s ❜ ② ♣r♦✜t✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ❝❧♦s✐♥❣
✸P❧❡❛s❡ r❡❢❡r t♦ s❡❝t✐♦♥ ✷✳✷ ❢♦r ❛ ❝❧❡❛r ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✇❤❛t ✇ ❡ ❛ss✉♠❡ ❜ ② ❛ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳

✶✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥
t❤❡✐r ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥s ✇❤❡♥ ❛ss❡ts ❛r❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ♣r✐❝❡❞✳ ș♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✇✐t❤ ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ t❧② ❜✐✲
❛s❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝❛♥♥♦t ♠❛❦ ❡ ❡①❝❡ss✐✈ ❡ ♣r♦✜ts ✉s✐♥❣ ❤✐s ✐♥s✐❣❤ ts ✐♥ t♦
❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧s✳
✷✳✹ ❇❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✈s✳ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡ts
❆ ❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t t❤❡♦r② ✱ ❛♥ ② ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❜✐❛s ♣ ♦s❡s ♥♦ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s t♦ t❤❡
♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛♥❞ ✐ts ❡✛❡❝t ✐s ♦♥❧② t❡♠♣ ♦r❛r② ✳ ❚❤❡ t❤❡♦r② st❛t❡s t❤❛t s♠❛rt ❛♥❞ ❛❞❛♣t❛❜❧❡
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs q✉✐❝ ❦❧② ❞❡t❡❝t t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♣r♦✜t ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t ② ✱ ❝r❡❛t❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❜✐❛s✱ ❛♥❞
♣✉t ✐♥ ♣❧❛❝❡ ❛ str❛t❡❣② t❤❛t ✇✐❧❧ ♣ ❡r♠✐t t♦ ♣r♦✜t ♦✉t ♦❢ t❤✐s ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✳ ❲❤❡♥
❡♥♦✉❣❤ ♠♦♥❡② ✐s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ str❛t❡❣② t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♣r♦✜t ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ❞✐s❛♣♣ ❡❛r✳
❚❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤✐s ♣r♦ ❝❡ss ♦❢ r❛♣✐❞ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥✱ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜✐❛s❡s q✉✐❝ ❦❧② ❞✐s❛♣♣ ❡❛r✳ ❚❤✐s
t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❛ss❡rt✐♦♥ ✐s tr✉❡ ❜✉t ✐♥❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡✳ ❚❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts t❤❡♦r② ✐❣♥♦r❡s t❤❡
✇ ❛ ② ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✐s ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② r❡st♦r❡❞✳ ❚❤❡ t❤❡♦r② ✐♠♣❧✐❝✐t❧② ❛ss✉♠❡s t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ❡①❝❡❧❧❡♥ t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ q✉✐❝ ❦❧② r❡✈ ❡❛❧s ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s✳ ❚❤✐s
❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ❛❧s♦ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❡ ❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣❡❛❜❧❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ t❧② ♠♦♥✐t♦r ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
❛♥❞ ❧♦ ♦❦ t♦ ❡①♣❧♦✐t ❛♥ ② ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✳ ș♥ ❢❛❝t✱ t❤❡② ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st t❤❡✐r ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ❛s
❧♦♥❣ ❛s t❤❡② ❞♦♥✬t ❞❡t❡❝t ❛♥ ② ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✳ ❲❤✐❧❡ ♥♦t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐♥❣✱ s✉❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
✇ ♦✉❧❞ ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ✐♥❝✉r t❤❡ ❝♦sts ❢♦r t❤❡✐r ❡①❝❡❧❧❡♥ t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❙♦✱ t❤❡s❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
✇ ♦✉❧❞ r❡q✉✐r❡ ❡✈ ❡r② ♥❡✇ ♣r♦✜t ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t ② ✭❛r✐s✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s✮ t♦
♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ ❣❛✐♥s t♦ ❝♦ ✈ ❡r✿ t❤❡ ❝♦st ♦❢ t❤❡ str❛t❡❣② ✱ t❤❡ ❝♦st ♦❢ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❜ ♦✉❣❤ t ❛♥❞ ❛ s✉✣❝✐❡♥ t r✐s❦ ♣r❡♠✐✉♠ ❢♦r ❡♥❣❛❣✐♥❣ t❤❡✐r ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ❛❣❛✐♥st
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✬s ❜❧✉♥❞❡r✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ t❤❡s❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♥❡✈ ❡r ❡♥❣❛❣❡ t❤❡✐r ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ t♦ ❝♦rr❡❝t
s♠❛❧❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s s✐♥❝❡ s✉❝ ❤ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t ❜ ❡ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡✳ ș♥st❡❛❞✱ t❤❡②
✇ ❛✐t ✉♥ t✐❧ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣s ❛ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✭❞❡♣ ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ t❤❡
t❤r❡❡ ❢❛❝t♦rs ♠❡♥ t✐♦♥❡❞ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡✮ ❛♥❞ ♦♥❧② t❤❡♥ ❞♦ t❤❡② t❛❦ ❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥✳ ❙✉❝ ❤ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✱ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♣❛rt ♦❢ ✇ ❡❧❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ❝❛♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ✭❜ ② ✐♥❛❝t✐♦♥✮ t❤❡
❛♣♣ ❡❛r❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣✳
ș♥ t❤❡✐r ❢❛♠♦✉s ❛rt✐❝❧❡✱ ✬ ❖♥ t❤❡ ș♠♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t② ♦❢ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❧② ❊✣❝✐❡♥t ▼❛r✲
❦❡ts ✬✱ ✭ ●r♦ss♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❙t✐❣❧✐t③ ✱ ✶✾✽✵ ✮ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ ❛ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❜❛s✐s ❢♦r t❤✐s ♣❛r❛❞♦ ①
❛♥❞ ❝♦♥❝❧✉❞❡ ❜ ② s❛ ②✐♥❣ t❤❛t ✧ ❜ ❡ ❝ ❛✉s❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❝ ♦st❧②✱ ♣r✐❝ ❡s ❝ ❛♥♥♦t ♣ ❡r❢❡ ❝t❧②
r ❡✢❡ ❝t t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐s ❛✈❛✐❧❛❜❧❡✱ s✐♥❝ ❡ ✐❢ ✐t ❞✐❞✱ t❤♦s❡ ✇❤♦ s♣ ❡♥t r ❡s♦✉r ❝ ❡s
t♦ ♦❜t❛✐♥ ✐t ✇♦✉❧❞ r ❡ ❝ ❡✐✈❡ ♥♦ ❝ ♦♠♣ ❡♥s❛t✐♦♥ ✧✳ ❲ ❡ ❛❞❞ t♦ t❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s ♦❢ ✭ ●r♦ss✲
♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❙t✐❣❧✐t③ ✱ ✶✾✽✵ ✮ ❛♥❞ s❛ ② t❤❛t ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❤❛s t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✉s✐♥❣ ❤✐s
❝❛♣✐t❛❧ t♦ ❡✐t❤❡r ❣♦ ❛❣❛✐♥st ❛♥ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❝t ✭r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ t♦ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✬s ♣ ❡rs♦♥❛❧ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s✮
♠❛r❦ ❡t tr❡♥❞ ♦r t♦ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t❡ ❛♥❞ ❣♦ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✭❡✈ ❡♥ ✇❤❡♥ ❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
s❛ ②s t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ✐s ♠✐s♣r✐❝❡❞✮✳ ș♥ ❜ ♦t❤ ❝❛s❡s t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ♠❛❦ ❡s ❛ ❣❛♠ ❜❧❡✿ ❡✐t❤❡r t❤❡
♠❛r❦ ❡t ✧ ✇ ❛❦ ❡s ✉♣✧ ❛♥❞ ❤❡ ♣r♦✜ts ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡s ✐♥ t❤❡
✇r♦♥❣ ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ♣r♦✜ts ❢r♦♠ ❣♦✐♥❣ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ tr❡♥❞✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ✈✐❡✇✱ ✇ ❡
❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥s ✇❤❡♥ ❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣❡❛❜❧❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞❡❝✐❞❡ t♦ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇ t❤❡
✬✐♥❝♦rr❡❝t✬ ♠❛r❦ ❡t tr❡♥❞✳ ❚❤✐s ✬ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ s♣ ❡ ❝✉❧❛t✐✈❡ ✬ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❛♠♣❧✐✜❡s t❤❡ ♠♦♠❡♥✲
t✉♠ ❢♦r t❤❡ tr❡♥❞✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ❡✈ ❡♥ ♠♦r❡ t❤❡ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✳ ❲❤❡♥ t❤✐s ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥s✱

✷✳✹✳ ❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✈s✳ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✶✾
♣r✐❝❡s ❜ ❡❝♦♠❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ❛♥❞ ❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣❡❛❜❧❡ ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♦rs st❛rt ❛ ❝❧❛ss✐❝ ❣❛♠❡ ♦❢ ❝❛t ❛♥❞ ♠♦✉s❡✳ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ♦♣ ❡♥ ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥s ❧♦ ♦❦
❢♦r s✐❣♥s t❤❛t ♦t❤❡r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ t✉r♥ ❛❣❛✐♥st t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜ ② r❡✈ ❡❛❧✐♥❣ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
t❤❛t ❡♥❝♦✉r❛❣❡s ♦t❤❡rs t♦ ❝❧♦s❡ ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t❡ ♦♥ t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s✳
ș♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❞r✐✈ ❡♥ ❛♥ ②♠♦r❡ ❜ ② ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭str✐❝t❧② r❡✲
❧❛t❡❞ t♦ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s r❡❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮ ❜✉t r❛t❤❡r ❜ ② ✐♥❞✐❝❛t♦rs ♦❢ ❤♦ ✇ ♠❛♥ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡
✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ r✐❞❡ ✭♦r ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡ t♦✮ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t tr❡♥❞✳ ❚❤✐s ✐❞❡❛ ✐s ♥♦t ♥❡✇ s✐♥❝❡ ✐t r❡s❡♠✲
❜❧❡s ❛ ❑❡②♥❡s✐❛♥ ❜ ❡❛✉t ② ❝♦♥ t❡st ✇❤❡r❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs tr② t♦ ❣✉❡ss ❡❛❝ ❤ ♦t❤❡rs ✐♥ t❡♥ t✐♦♥s✳
❲❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠♦ ✈ ❡s ❛ ✇ ❛ ② ❢r♦♠ ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t st❛t❡✱ ✐♥ t♦ ❛ st❛t❡ ✇❤❡r❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
✐s ❝♦♥ tr♦❧❧❡❞ ❜ ② ❛❞✲❤♦ ❝ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s ❛♥❞ ♠♦♠❡♥ t✉♠ ❛❝t✐♦♥s✱ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥
❡❛s✐❧② ❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣ ✐♥ t♦ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✳ ș♥ t❤❡s❡ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥s✱ r✐s❦ ❝❛♥ ❣r❡❛t❧② ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ s✐♥❝❡ ❜ ♦t❤
✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ❛♥❞ ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s✳
❙♦♠❡ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ❛r✐s❡✿
• ❍♦ ✇ ♦❢t❡♥ ❝❛♥ t❤❡s❡ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❡✈ ❡♥ ts ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥❄
• ❍♦ ✇ ❧♦♥❣ ❞♦ ❡s ✐t t❛❦ ❡ t♦ r❡t✉r♥ t♦ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②❄
• ❈❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♣r♦✜t ❢r♦♠ t❤❡s❡ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s ❜ ② ♥♦t ❛❝t✐♥❣ ❛❣❛✐♥st t❤❡♠❄
❚❤❡s❡ ❛r❡ s♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ✇ ❡ ❛♥s✇ ❡r ✇✐t❤ t❤✐s t❤❡s✐s✳
❆s✐❞❡ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝ ✐♥ t❡r❡st✱ t❤❡ ❛♥s✇ ❡rs t♦ t❤❡s❡ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛♥ ✐♠✲
♣ ♦rt❛♥ t r❡❣✉❧❛t♦r② ✐♠♣❛❝t✳ ❇② ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ s②st❡♠✐❝ ❝❛✉s❡s ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❡✣✲
❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s✱ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ♦r❣❛♥✐③❡rs ❛♥❞ r❡❣✉❧❛t♦rs ❝❛♥ ✐♠♣ ♦s❡ ♥❡✇ ♦♣ ❡r❛t✐♥❣ r✉❧❡s
❛♥❞ r❡❣✉❧❛t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ❧✐♠✐t ♦r st♦♣ t❤❡s❡ ❜✐❛s❡s✳ ș❞❡♥ t✐❢②✐♥❣ s✉❝ ❤ ❢❛❝t♦rs ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡s
♥❡✇ ✇ ❛ ②s t♦✿
✶✳ ❆ ❝❝✉r❛t❡❧② ❝♦♠♠ ✉♥✐❝❛t❡ t♦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s
✭❜ ❡tt❡r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮
✷✳ ❉❡✈ ❡❧♦♣ ♥❡✇ r✐s❦ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s t♦ ❛ss❡s ♣ ♦t❡♥ t✐❛❧ ❧♦ss❡s ✭❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧② ❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧② ❢♦r
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇❤♦ ❝❛♥♥♦t s✉♣♣ ♦rt ♠ ✉❝ ❤ r✐s❦✮
✸✳ ❈❤❛♥❣❡ t❤❡ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ✧❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✧ ✐♥ t♦ ✧ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡ts ✧✳
❚❤✐s ❝❛♥ ❤❡❧♣ ✐♥st✐t✉t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♠❛❦ ❡ ❜ ❡tt❡r r✐s❦ ❛ss❡ss♠❡♥ ts ♦♥ ❜ ❡❤❛❧❢ ♦❢
t❤❡✐r ❝❧✐❡♥ ts✳
✹✳ ❉❡✈ ❡❧♦♣ ❜ ❡tt❡r ✇ ❛ ②s t♦ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r ❛♥❞ s✐❣♥❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s ✭✐♠♣r♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡
❛ttr❛❝t✐✈ ❡♥❡ss ❛♥❞ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✮✳
❆s ❛r❣✉❡❞ ❜ ❡❢♦r❡✱ ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤r♦✉❣❤✲♦✉t ♦✉r st✉❞② t❤❛t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✧ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s✧
❛r❡ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ❢♦r s♦♠❡ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✐t ✐s r❡❛s♦♥❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t
✐t ✐s ✐♥ t❤❡ ✐♥ t❡r❡st ♦❢ s✉❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t♦ ♣r❡s❡r✈ ❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✐♥ t❤❡✐r ❛❝t✉❛❧
st❛t❡✿ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ❛♥❞ ♦ ❝❝❛s✐♦♥❛❧❧② ✈❡r② ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥t ✳

✷✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥
✷✳✺ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
❲ ❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠♦st ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ❝❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝ ♦❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐s ✐ts
❛❜✐❧✐t② t♦ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ♣r✐❝❡ ❛ss❡ts✳ ▼✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts ✐s ❞✉❡ t♦ ❛ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❢❛❝t♦rs
❧✐❦❡✿ ❧❛❝❦ ♦❢ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ✱ ❧❛❝❦ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦r ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r✳ ș♥ r❡❣❛r❞s t♦ t❤❡ ✜rst
t✇♦ ❢❛❝t♦rs ✭❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ❛♥❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮ t❤❡ r❡❝❡♥t t❡♥ ②❡❛rs ❤❛✈❡ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
♠❛r❦❡ts ✇✐t❤ t❡❝❤♥♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ t♦♦❧s ✭❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ❡❧❡❝tr♦♥✐❝ ♠❛r❦❡ts✱ ❛❧❣♦r✐t❤♠✐❝ tr❛❞✲
✐♥❣✱ ❡t❝✮ t❤❛t ❡♥❛❜❧❡✱ ❛s ♥❡✈❡r s❡❡♥ ❜❡❢♦r❡✱ t❤❡ ❢❛st ❛♥❞ r❡❧✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❝❝❡ss t♦ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❛♥❞ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ✳ ș♥ t❤✐s st✉❞② ✇❡ ❢♦❝✉s ♦♥ t❤❡ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥s❤✐♣ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦r
❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r✳ ❲ ❡ ❛ss✉♠❡ ❛❝❝❡ss t♦ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ❛♥❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❝♦♥st❛♥t ❛♥❞ ❡q✉❛❧ ❢♦r
❛❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳
ș♥ ♦✉r st✉❞② ♦❢ t❤❡ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥s❤✐♣s ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐♥❡✣✲
❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s ✇❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ❛♥s✇❡r✐♥❣ ✜✈❡ r❡s❡❛r❝❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s✳
❘ ❡s❡ ❛r ❝❤ ◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ★✶ ✿ ❲❤❛t ♠✐① ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛✈✐♦rs ♣r ♦ ❞✉❝ ❡s ❝ ♦♥✲
s✐st❡♥t❧② ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝ ❡s❄
❇② ❛♥s✇❡r✐♥❣ t❤✐s q✉❡st✐♦♥ ✇❡ s❤♦✇ ❤♦✇ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ❜✐❛s❡s ❝❛♥ ❛✛❡❝t ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡
♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ șt ✐s ✐♥t✉✐t✐✈❡ t♦ s❛② ✱ ❢♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ t❤❛t ✐❢ ❛❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♦♣t✐♠✐sts
t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❛♥ ✐ts ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✇❡ ❛❧s♦
s❤♦✇ ✐❢ ✐t ✐s r❡❛❧✐st✐❝ t❤❛t s✉❝❤ ❛ ♠✐① ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡s ❝❛♥ ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② ❛♣♣❡❛r ✐♥ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♠♦st ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛r❡ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ t♦ ❛❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇❡ s❡❡❦ t❤♦s❡
❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇❤♦ s✉r✈✐✈❡ ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳
❘ ❡s❡ ❛r ❝❤ ◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ★✷ ✿ ❈❛♥ ❛ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦r✭s✮ s✉r✈✐✈❡ ✐♥ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r✲
❦❡t❄
ș❢ t❤❡ ❛♥s✇❡r t♦ q✉❡st✐♦♥ ✷ ✐s ②❡s t❤❛♥ ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ ♣r♦✈❡♥ t❤❛t ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❝❛♥
♣❡rs✐st ✐♥ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❲ ❡ ❛r❡ st✐❧❧ ❧❡❢t ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ✐ss✉❡ ♦❢ ❤♦✇ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r
❝❛♥ ❛♣♣❡❛r ✐♥ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ❖♥❡ ❝❛♥ ❛r❣✉❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✉♥❞❡r❣♦ ❡①t❡♥s✐✈❡ ♣r❡♣❛r❛t✐♦♥s✱
❜❡❢♦r❡ ❡♥t❡r✐♥❣ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✱ t♦ ❞✐s❝♦✈❡r ❛♥❞ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡ t❤❡✐r ❜✐❛s❡s✳ ▼♦r❡♦✈❡r
✇❡ ❝❛♥ s✉♣♣♦s❡ t❤❛t ❛❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝♦♥st❛♥t❧② ❧♦♦❦ t♦ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡ t❤❡✐r ♦✇♥ ❜✐❛s❡s✳ ❲ ❡
❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦ ❛ss✉♠❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝♦♥st❛♥t❧② ❛❞❥✉st t❤❡✐r ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥
♦r❞❡r t♦ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡✐r ♣r♦✜ts✳ ș♥ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ s✉❝❤ ♣✉r❡ ♣r♦✜t ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈❡✱ ♦♥❡ ❝❛♥ ❛r❣✉❡ ❛♥
✐♥✈❡st♦r ❝❛♥ ✈♦❧✉♥t❛r✐❧② ❝❤♦♦s❡ t♦ ❜✐❛s ❤✐s ❜❡❧✐❡❢s ♦r ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✐❢ ❤❡ ❝❛♥ ♠❛❦❡ ❛ ❜✐❣❣❡r
♣r♦✜t✳ ș♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡ts ♣r♦✈✐❞❡ ❛♥ ❛♣♣r♦①✐♠❛t❡❧② ✼✪ r❡t✉r♥ ♣❡r ②❡❛r✱ ♦♥
t❤❡ ❧♦♥❣ t❡r♠ ✭✐♥ s♣✐t❡ ♦❢ ②❡❛rs ✇✐t❤ ❤✉❣❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝r✐s❡s✮✳ ❨ ❡t st♦❝❦ ♣r✐❝❡s s♦♠❡✲
t✐♠❡s r✐s❡ ✈❡r② ❢❛st ❛♥❞ ✈❡r② ❤✐❣❤✳ ❙✉❝❤ ♠♦♠❡♥ts ♦✛❡r ♣r♦✜t ♦♣♣♦rt✉♥✐t✐❡s ♠✉❝❤
❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❛♥ ✼✪✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ♦♥ ❛ ♣✉r❡ ♣r♦✜t ❜❛s✐s✱ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈❡s t♦ ✬r✐❞❡✬
❛♥❞ ❝❛s❤ ✐♥ ♦♥ ❛❜♥♦r♠❛❧✱ s❤♦rt✲t❡r♠✱ ♠❛r❦❡t ♦♣♣♦rt✉♥✐t✐❡s✳ ❚ ♦ ❡❛r♥ s✉❝❤ r❡t✉r♥s✱
♥♦t ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧s ♦❢ t❤❡ tr❛❞❡❞ ❛ss❡ts✱ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ♦❢t❡♥
✉s❡ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ♥♦t s♦❧❡❧② ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧s ✭❤❡♥❝❡ t❤❡ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧
tr❛❞✐♥❣✮✳
❘ ❡s❡ ❛r ❝❤ ◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ★✸ ✿ ❈❛♥ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❡ ❛r♥ ♠♦r ❡ t❤❛♥ ♥♦♥✲❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥✲
✈❡st♦rs❄ ș❢ ②❡s✱ ✐♥ ✇❤❛t ❝ ♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s❄

✷✳✻✳ ❘❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ▼❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ✷✶
ș❢ ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r s✉r✈✐✈ ❡s ❛♥❞ ❡❛r♥s ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♣r♦✜ts ✐♥ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ ✇ ❡
❡①♣ ❡❝t ♦t❤❡r r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ ts t♦ ♠✐♠✐❝ s✉❝ ❤ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs✳ ❚❤❡ ♠♦r❡
❜✐❛s❡❞ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ ts ❡♥ t❡r ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t t❤❡ ♠♦r❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t❡❞
❢r♦♠ ✐t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✢♦ ✇✳ ❇✉t ❛❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇ ❛♥ t t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ ♣r♦✜ts s♦
t❤❡② ❡①♣ ❡❝t ♣r✐❝❡s t♦ r✐s❡✳ ▲❛❝ ❦✐♥❣ ✭♦r ♥♦t ✉s✐♥❣✮ t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ♦❢ ✬❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝
r❡❛❧✐t ② ❝ ❤❡❝ ❦s✬ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❛♥ ② ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❜❛❝ ❦✐♥❣✳ ș♥❝r❡❛s❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡s
❝❛♥ ✉❧t✐♠❛t❡❧② ❧❡❛❞ t♦ ♠♦♠❡♥ ts ✇❤❡r❡ ♥♦ ✬❜✐❣❣❡r ❢♦ ♦❧✬ ❡①✐sts✳ ș♥ s✉❝ ❤ ❝❛s❡s✱ tr❛❞✐♥❣
❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❡♥❞ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✇✐❧❧ st❛rt ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ❢♦r♠❡❞ ❜ ② ♦t❤❡r
❣r♦✉♣s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭✉s✉❛❧❧② r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♥♦♥✲❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✮✳
❘ ❡s❡ ❛r ❝❤ ◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ★✹ ✿ ❲❤❛t ❛r ❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♠✐❝r ♦ ❝ ♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ❢♦r t❤❡ ❡♠❡r✲
❣❡♥❝ ❡ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝ ❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s❄
▲❛st❧② ✱ ✇ ❡ st✉❞② t ✇ ♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ t ✇ ♦ s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧ ❦✐♥❞s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✿ ❨ ♦ ❞❛
❛♥❞ ❙✐t❤✳ ❇♦t❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛♠❛③✐♥❣ ❝❛♣❛❝✐t✐❡s ❢♦r ❛♥❛❧②s✐♥❣ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛✲
t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❢♦r ❝♦♠♣✉t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ② ❛ss❡t✳ ❨ ♦ ❞❛ tr✐❡s t♦
♣r♦✜t ❢r♦♠ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❛❝t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ❝❧♦s❡ t❤❡ ❣❛♣ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡
❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ș♥ ♦♣♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥✱ ❙✐t❤ ❧♦ ♦❦s ❢♦r ♣r♦✜t ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t✐❡s ✇✐t❤♦✉t
r❡❣❛r❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ✇ ♦r❦ ✇ ❡ s❤♦ ✇
✇❤✐❝ ❤ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ t ✇ ♦ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ❨ ♦ ❞❛ ♦r ❙✐t❤✱ s✉r✈✐✈ ❡s ✐♥ ❛ ❝♦♠♣ ❡t✐t✐✈ ❡ ✜♥❛♥✲
❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ș❢ t❤❡ ❙✐t❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r s✉r✈✐✈ ❡s t❤❡♥ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ r❡✐♥❢♦r❝❡ t❤❡ ✐❞❡❛ t❤❛t ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t❡❞ ❢r♦♠ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ r❡❛❧✐t✐❡s✳ ❘❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ✶
s❡❡❦s t❤❡ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✱ ❛t ❛♥ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✱ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t✐♦♥ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧s✳ ❘❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ✺ ❧♦ ♦❦s ❢♦r ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs
t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳
❘ ❡s❡ ❛r ❝❤ ◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ★✺ ✿ ❈❛♥ ❨ ♦ ❞❛ ❜ ❡ ❛t ❙✐t❤❄ ❍♦✇ ❝ ❛♥ ❧✐✈❡ ❧♦♥❣❡r✱ ❨ ♦ ❞❛ ♦r
❙✐t❤❄
❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡s❡ ✜✈ ❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ❤❡❧♣s ✉s ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❤♦ ✇ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ❝❛♥ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛♥ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥❞✐r❡❝t❧② ♦♥ t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t
❛❧❧♦ ❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ✐♥ ♦✉r ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❡s✳
✷✳✻ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ▼❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣②
❖✉r r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ❣♦❛❧ ✐s t♦ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ ❧✐♥❦s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛ t❤❡
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❚ ♦ ❛♥s✇ ❡r t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ✉s✐♥❣
❛ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② t❤❛t ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❛ ✬❣❡♥❡r❛t✐✈ ❡ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤✬ ✭ ❊♣st❡✐♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✻ ✮✳ ❲ ❡ ✜rst ❞❡✜♥❡
❛ ❤ ②♣ ♦t❤❡s✐s ❛ss❡rt✐♥❣ ❛ ❝♦♥♥❡❝t✐♦♥ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❛ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❛♥❞ ❛♥ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤❡ ❤ ②♣ ♦t❤❡s❡s ✇ ❡ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❛❧❧ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇
t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ str✉❝t✉r❡✿
❍✿ ❙✉♣♣ ♦s❡ t❤❛t ❝ ♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s X1…Xn ❛r ❡ r ❡s♣ ❡ ❝t❡ ❞ ✭❛t t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ ❛
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✮✳ ❚❤❡♥ ❝ ♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s Y1…Ym ✇✐❧ ❧ ❡♠❡r ❣❡ ❛t t❤❡ ❛❣❣r ❡ ❣❛t❡ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢
t❤❛t ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✳

✷✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥
❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ✇❡ ❧♦♦❦ ❛t t❤❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✬♣✉③③❧❡✬ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✧ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣✧✳ ș♥
t❤✐s ❝❛s❡ t❤❡ ❛♥❛❧②s❡❞ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t② ✭❨✮ ✐s t❤❡ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s✳ ❚ ♦ ❞❡t❡r✲
♠✐♥❡ t❤❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧ ❝❛✉s❡s✴❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ✇❡ t❡st ❤②♣♦t❤❡s✐s
s✉❝❤ ❛s✿
❍✶✿ ș♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐t❤ ✸✵✪ ♦♣t✐♠✐st✐❝ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭ X1✮ ❛♥❞ ✼✵✪ r ❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
✭X2✮ ✇❡ ✇✐❧ ❧ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ♦❢ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ✭ Y1✮✳
❙♦❧✈✐♥❣ t❤✐s ❤②♣♦t❤❡s✐s ✇✐❧❧ ✐♠♠❡❞✐❛t❡❧② s❤♦✇ ❛ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ❡✛❡❝t ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ♦✉r
♣r❡♠✐s❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❞❡s✐r❡❞ ❡✛❡❝ts✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦✉r ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❡♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t ✐s ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐st✐❝
❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛❜❧❡ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ♥❡①t ♠❛❦❡ ❝❧❛✐♠s ❛❜♦✉t ❝❛✉s❛❧✐t② ✳
❚ ♦ t❡st s✉❝❤ ❛ ❤②♣♦t❤❡s✐s ✇❡ ✉s❡ ❛ t♦♦❧ ♥❛♠❡❞ ✬❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r✬✳ ❆♥ ❛❣❡♥t
❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ✐s ❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♣r♦❣r❛♠ t❤❛t s✐♠✉❧❛t❡s t❤❡ ❛❝t✐✈✐t② ♦❢ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ❝♦♠✲
♣♦♥❡♥ts ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✿ t❤❡ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇❤♦ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ s❡♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs✱ t❤❡ ❝❧❡❛r✐♥❣ ❤♦✉s❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s
❞✐s❝♦✈❡r② ✳ ❙t❛rt✐♥❣ ❢♦r ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ♠✐❝r♦ ❧❡✈❡❧ s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ✭❛s✲
s✉♠♣t✐♦♥s X1…Xn ✮ t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ❝♦♠♣✉t❡s✱ ✐♥ ❛ ❞❡❞✉❝t✐✈❡ ♠❛♥♥❡r✱ t❤❡ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s
♦❢ r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥t ♠❛❝r♦s❝♦♣✐❝ ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡s Y1…Ym ✭❧✐❦❡ ♣r✐❝❡s✱ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥ ✈♦❧✉♠❡s✱ r❡t✉r♥s✱
❡t❝✮✳
❲ ❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧✐♥❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥♣✉t ❞❛t❛ Xi ✐♥t♦ ♦✉t♣✉t ❞❛t❛ Yi ✐s
❛ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐st✐❝ ♣r♦❝❡ss✳ ❆♥ ❛❣❡♥t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ✐s ❡q✉✐✈ ❛❧❡♥t t♦ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧
❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ❧✐❦❡✿ ❢ ✭X1…Xn ✮ ❂ ✭Y1…Ym ✮
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐s ❛ ❤✐❣❤❧② ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠ ✐t ✐s ❡①tr❡♠❡❧② ❤❛r❞ t♦
❝r❡❛t❡ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❝❛♣❛❜❧❡ ♦❢ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ ✐t ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ✳ ❋ ♦r t❤✐s r❡❛s♦♥✱
✐♥st❡❛❞ ♦❢ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡ ✇❡ ✉s❡ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♣r♦❣r❛♠ ❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡✳ ❚❤✐s ❧❛♥✲
❣✉❛❣❡ ❤❛s t❤❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t② t♦ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠ ✐♥ ❛ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ ❛♥❞ ✐♥t✉✐t✐✈❡ ❢❛s❤✐♦♥✳
❲ ❡ ♣r♦♣♦s❡ ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠ t❤❛t ❤✐❣❤❧✐❣❤ts t❤❡ ❛❞✈ ❛♥t❛❣❡s ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✲
✉❧❛t♦r✿
• ●✐✈❡♥ ❛ tr ❡ ❡ ❧❡ ❛❢ ✭❧✐❦❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✜❣✉r ❡ ❜ ❡❧♦✇✮ ♣❧❡ ❛s❡ ❞✐s❝ ♦✈❡r ✇❤❛t s♣ ❡ ❝✐❡s ♦❢ tr ❡ ❡
✐t ❜ ❡❧♦♥❣s t♦✳

✷✳✼✳ ❆ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✱ ❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❧✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤✐s st✉❞② ✷✸
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✷✳✶✿ ●❧♦❜❛❧ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ♠❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣②
❯s✐♥❣ ❛ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤✱ ❛ r❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✇♦✉❧❞ ❛♥❛❧②③❡ t❤❡ ❝❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ♦❢ t❤❡
❧❡❛❢ ❛♥❞ ✜♥❞ ♣❛tt❡r♥s s✐♠✐❧❛r t♦ ♦t❤❡r ❦♥♦✇♥✲♦r✐❣✐♥ ❧❡❛❢s✳ ❚❤✐s ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤ ✇♦✉❧❞
✐❞❡♥t✐❢② ❧❡❛❢s ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ♥♦t ❝❛✉s❛❧✐t②✿ ✐❢ t✇♦ ❧❡❛❢s ❧♦♦❦s t❤❡ s❛♠❡
t❤❡② ❜❡❧♦♥❣ t♦ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ t②♣❡ ♦❢ tr❡❡✳ ❯s✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤✱
✇❡ s❡❛r❝❤ ❢♦r ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t tr❡❡ s❡❡❞s ❛♥❞ ❣r♦✇ ❡♥t✐r❡ tr❡❡s ❢r♦♠ t❤❡✐r s❡❡❞s✳ ❲❤❡♥
t❤❡ ❣r♦✇♥ tr❡❡s ❛r❡ ♠❛t✉r❡ ✇❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ ❞✐r❡❝t❧② t❤❡✐r ❧❡❛❢s ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣❛r❡ t❤❡♠ t♦
♦✉r ✉♥❦♥♦✇♥ ❧❡❛❢✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ✇❛② ✇❡ s❤♦✇ ❛ ❝❛✉s❛❧ ❧✐♥❦ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❛ tr❡❡ s❡❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❛
❧❡❛❢✳ ș♥ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t t❤❡ ✬ ❧❡ ❛❢s ✬ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t ✉♥❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛ ✭❧✐❦❡ t❤❡
♦♥❡s ♣r❡s❡♥t❡❞ ✐♥ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ s❡❡❞s ❛r❡ t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❧❡✈❡❧ s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❛
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ✭❧✐❦❡ t❤❡ ❉◆❆ str✐♥❣s ♦❢ ❛ tr❡❡ s❡❡❞✮✳
✷✳✼ ❆ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✱ ❛❞✈ ❛♥t❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❧✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤✐s
st✉❞②
❚❤✐s ❝❤❛♣t❡r ❡①♣❧❛✐♥s t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✱ ❛❞✈ ❛♥t❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❧✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♦✉r
st✉❞② ✳ ❊❛❝❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✐s ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ✐♥ ♠♦r❡ ❞❡t❛✐❧ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t ❝❤❛♣t❡rs✳
▼❛✐♥ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♦✉r st✉❞②✿
• ▼❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ♦♥❧② ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ♦r❞❡rs ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ✣❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛✲
t✐♦♥ ❡①✐sts ❛♥❞ ✐t ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❞✐s❝♦✈❡r❡❞ ❜② ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ș♠♣❧✐❝✐t❧② ✱ ✇❡ ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t
❛❧❧ ♦t❤❡r ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛r❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ✭❜♦♥❞ ♦r ❞❡r✐✈ ❛t✐✈❡s ♠❛r❦❡ts✮ ❛♥❞ ❞♦ ♥♦t ❛✛❡❝t
t❤❡ ❛ss❡ts ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇❡ st✉❞② ✳
• ❚❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠ ❞♦❡s ♥♦t ♣r♦❞✉❝❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❲ ❡ ❛❝❦♥♦✇❧✲
❡❞❣❡ t❤❛t ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡t ❞❡s✐❣♥ ❢❡❛t✉r❡s✱ ❧✐❦❡ t✐❝❦ s✐③❡ ♦r ♦r❞❡r ❧✐❢❡✲t✐♠❡✱ ❝❛♥

✷✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥
✐♠♣❛❝t t❤❡ ❞✐ss✐♣❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t♦ ♣r✐❝❡s✱ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s♦♠❡ ✉♥ ✇ ❛♥ t❡❞
✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡s ♦♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✭❛s r❡♣ ♦rt❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ❈❤✐❛r❡❧❧❛ ❛♥❞ ș♦r✐ ✱ ✷✵✵✷ ✮✮✳
• ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ❛s ❛ ❣r♦✉♣✱ ❧❡❛r♥ ♣❛ss✐✈ ❡❧② t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❛♥ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥❛r② ♣r♦ ❝❡ss✿ ❜❛❞
str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❧♦s❡ ♠♦♥❡② ✇❤✐❧❡ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❡❛r♥ ♠♦♥❡② ✳
• ❆ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❢♦r ❛ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ❡①✐sts✳ ❲ ❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧
❛♥❞ ✉s❡ s✉❝ ❤ ❛ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ t♦ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ❛ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ s❡r✐❡s✳
• ❚❤❡ ♦♥❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ ♦✉r tr❛❞❡❞ ❛ss❡t ✐s ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥✲
❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❖t❤❡r ❡✈ ❡♥ ts ❧✐❦ ❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s❤♦ ❝ ❦s✱ r✉♠♦rs✱ ♦r ♠❛❝r♦ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝
❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ❛❧❧ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡❞ ✐♥ t❤✐s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✭✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐s ❛s✲
s✉♠❡❞ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t✮✳
• ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦ ♥♦t s❡♣❛r❛t❡❧② ❡st✐♠❛t❡ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t r❛t❡s ❛♥❞ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s✳ ❚❤❡②
❞✐r❡❝t❧② ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t❡❞ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s✳ ❚❤✐s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ❞♦ ❡s
♥♦t ✐♠♣❧② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✉s❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t r❛t❡s ♦r ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s✳
• ❲ ❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡ ❛♥❞ ❛♥❛❧②③❡ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ st♦ ❝ ❦ ❛♥❞ ♥♦ ♦t❤❡r
✐♥ t❡r❧✐♥❦ ❡❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✭♦♣t✐♦♥s ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ ❜ ♦♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ ❡t❝✮ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ✇ ❡ ❛ss✉♠❡
t❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇✐♥❣✿
✶✳ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❛✛❡❝t❡❞ ❜ ② ❡✈ ❡♥ ts ❢r♦♠ ♦t❤❡r ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
✷✳ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❢♦ ❝✉s t❤❡✐r ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ♦♥❧② ♦♥ t❤❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ st♦ ❝ ❦
✸✳ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❡q✉❛❧ ❛❝❝❡ss t♦ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ②
❖♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ♦❢ ♦✉r st✉❞② ✐s t❤❛t ✇ ❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t❤❡♦r✐❡s
t❤❛t ❛r❡ s✉st❛✐♥❡❞ ❜ ② ❛ ❞❡❞✉❝t✐✈ ❡ ♣r♦ ♦❢✳ ❚❤✐s ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡s t❤❡ s❝✐❡♥ t✐✜❝ ❢r❛♠❡✇ ♦r❦ ❢♦r
❝❧❡❛r ❛♥❞ ♣r❡❝✐s❡ ❝❛✉s❛❧ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥s✳
❲ ♦r❦✐♥❣ ✇✐t❤ ❛ t♦ ♦❧✱ ❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r✱ t❤❛t ✐s ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ❝♦♥ tr♦❧❧❛❜❧❡ ✇ ❡
❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❢❛❝t♦rs✳ ș♥ ❛ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧
❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤ ✇ ❡ ❛ss✉♠❡ ❛ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✬❝❡t❡r✐s ♣❛r✐❜✉s✬ ❜✉t ✐t ✐s ❤❛r❞ t♦ ✈ ❡r✐❢② s✉❝ ❤ ❛♥
❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥✳ ❲✐t❤ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤ ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ t♦ st♦♣ ♦r ❛❧❧♦ ✇ t❤❡
✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛♥ ② st❛t❡ ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡✳ ❚❤ ✉s ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ♠❛❦ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ✐♥❢❡r❡♥❝❡s ❛❜ ♦✉t
✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥s ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ✈❡r✐t❛s ❝ ❡t❡r✐s ♣ ❛r✐❜✉s ♠❡t❤♦ ❞✳
❲❤❡♥ t❡st✐♥❣ ❛ t❤❡♦r② ✱ ♦✉r ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ ♣r♦ ✈ ❡s ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ✬tr✉t❤✬ ♣r♦♣ ❡rt ② ♦❢
❛ t❤❡♦r❡♠✳ ❆ ❝❧❛ss✐❝ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ ✐♠♣❧✐❝✐t❧② ❛ss✉♠❡s t❤❛t ✐❢ ❛ ♣❤❡✲
♥♦♠❡♥♦♥ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡❞ ❜ ② ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s t❤❛♥ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤✐s
♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥♦♥ ✐♥ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ t❤❡ ❈❛♣✐t❛❧ ❆ss❡t Pr✐❝✐♥❣ ▼♦ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦✲
✈✐❞❡s t❤❡ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❜❛s✐s ❢♦r ♠❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ r✐s❦ ❛♥❞ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♥❣ r❡t✉r♥s✳ ș♥ t❤❡♦r② t❤❡
❈❆P▼ ✐s tr✉❡ ② ❡t ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ t❡sts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s❤♦ ✇♥ t❤❛t ✐ts ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡❞
✐♥ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❚❤ ✉s✱ ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ r❡❛s♦♥s ✇❤ ② ❈❆P▼ ✐s ♥♦t ✈ ❛❧✐❞❛t❡❞ ✐♥ r❡❛❧✐t ② ✐s
❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t st❛t❡s ✐t ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❛tt❛✐♥❛❜❧❡ ✐♥ r❡❛❧✐t ② ✳
❲ ❡ ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠♦st ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡ ♦❢ ♦✉r st✉❞② ✐s t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ②
♦❢ ♣r♦ ✈✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❛tt❛✐♥❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ tr✉❡ t❤❡♦r✐❡s ✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ ❢♦r ❛tt❛✐♥❛❜✐❧✐t ② t♦ ❜ ❡

✷✳✽✳ ❘❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ❛♥❞ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✷✺
r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥ t ✐♥ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s②st❡♠ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t st❛t❡ ❤❛s t♦ ❜ ❡ ❛❝ ❤✐❡✈ ❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ r❡❛s♦♥❛❜❧❡ t✐♠❡
❢r❛♠❡✳ ș❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥ t❡❣r❛t❡s ♥❡✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛tt❡r ♦❢ ② ❡❛rs t❤❛♥
t❤❡ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ tr✉❡ st❛t❡ ♦❢ ✬❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②✬ ✐s ♥♦t ❛tt❛✐♥❛❜❧❡ ✐♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❚❤✐s ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t
♥❡❝❡ss❛r✐❧② ✐♠♣❧② t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐s ♥❡✈ ❡r ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t✱ r❛t❤❡r ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ q✉❛❧✐t ②
♦❢ ✬♥♦✐s② ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②✬ ❛s ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ ❜ ② ❙r♦❢✳ ❍❡r✈ ❡ ❆❧❡①❛♥❞r❡ ✐♥ t❤✐s ❞♦ ❝t♦r❛❧ t❤❡s✐s
✭ ❍❡r✈ ❡ ✱ ✶✾✾✹ ✮✳
❖✉r st✉❞② ❛❧s♦ ❤❛s ❛ ❢❡✇ ❞✐s❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s✳ ❋ r♦♠ ❛ s❝✐❡♥ t✐✜❝ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇ t❤❡r❡
❛r❡ t ✇ ♦ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛t✐❝ ✐ss✉❡s ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ✇ ❡ ✉s❡✿ t❤❡ ❛❝❝✉r❛❝② ♦❢ ♦✉r ❜❛s✐❝
❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✐❞✐t ② ♦❢ ♦✉r ❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r✳ ▼♦st ♦❢ ♦✉r ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s
❛r❡ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡s t♦ ♣❛tt❡r♥s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ t♦ t❤❡ r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢
t❤❡s❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs✳ ❚❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ✇ ❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ s❝✐❡♥ t✐✜❝
✈ ❛❧✐❞✐t ② ✐♥ ♣s②❝ ❤♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ st✉❞✐❡s✳ ❨ ❡t✱ ♦✉r ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs ❛r❡ ❛♥ ✐❞❡❛❧✐st✐❝
r❡✢❡❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✇ ❛ ② r❡❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♠❛❦ ❡ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s✳ ❈♦♥s❡q✉❡♥ t❧② ✱ ✐❢ s♦♠❡ ♦❢ ♦✉r
❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ✢❛ ✇ ❡❞ ♦✉r r❡s✉❧ts ❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦ ❜ ❡ ❢❛❧s❡✳
❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ ✉s❡❞ s✉❝❝❡ss❢✉❧❧② t♦ s♦❧✈ ❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s✳
❲ ❡ ♠❡♥ t✐♦♥ ✐ts ✉s❡ ❜ ② t❤❡ ❆♠❡r✐❝❛♥ ◆❆❙❉ ❆ ◗ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥ ✶✾✾✼✳ ❚❤❡ ♠❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥ t
♦❢ ◆❆❙❉ ❆ ◗ ✇ ❛♥ t❡❞ t♦ r❡❞✉❝❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t t✐❝ ❦ s✐③❡ ❢r♦♠ ✶✴✽ t♦ ✶✴✶✻✳ ș♥ t✉✐t✐✈ ❡❧② ✱ ✐t
s❡❡♠s ❝♦rr❡❝t t❤❛t ✐❢ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ♠♦ ✈ ❡ s♠♦ ♦t❤❡r t❤❛♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t q✉❛❧✐t ② ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ✐♠♣r♦ ✈ ❡❞✳
❚ ♦ ❛ ✈ ♦✐❞ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈ ❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡❛❝t✐♦♥s✱ ◆❆❙❉ ❆ ◗ ❝♦♠♠✐ss✐♦♥❡❞ t❤❡ ❝r❡❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛♥
❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇❤❡r❡ t❤✐s r❡❣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❝♦✉❧❞ ❜ ❡ t❡st❡❞✳ ❚❤❡
r❡s✉❧ts ✇ ❡r❡ s✉r♣r✐s✐♥❣❧② ❝♦✉♥ t❡r✲✐♥ t✉✐t✐✈ ❡✳ ❚❤❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞ t❤❛t ❛ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡
✐♥ t✐❝ ❦ s✐③❡ ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ❤✐♥❞❡r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✬s ❛❜✐❧✐t ② t♦ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ✐♥❡✈✐t❛❜❧②
✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ❜✐❞✲❛s❦ s♣r❡❛❞s✳ ❚❤❡ ◆❆❙❉ ❆ ◗ ❜ ♦❛r❞ ❞❡❝✐❞❡❞ ♥♦t t♦ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡ t✐❝ ❦ s✐③❡✱
♣r♦❜❛❜❧② s❛ ✈✐♥❣ ❛ ❧♦t ♦❢ ♠♦♥❡② ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss✳
✷✳✽ ❘❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t② ❛♥❞ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t②
❚❤r♦✉❣❤♦✉t t❤✐s ✇ ♦r❦ ✇ ❡ r❡❢❡r t♦ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛♥❞ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✳ ❚❤❡ ♣✉r♣ ♦s❡ ♦❢
t❤✐s ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✐s t♦ ♦✛❡r ✐♥s✐❣❤ ts ❢♦r t❤❡ ❛♥s✇ ❡rs t♦ t❤❡s❡ t ✇ ♦ q✉❡st✐♦♥s✿
✶✳ ❲❤❛t ✐s ❛♥ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r❄
✷✳ ❆r❡ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♣r❡s❡♥ t ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts❄
șt ✐s ♥♦ ✇ ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛❝❝❡♣t❡❞ t❤❛t s♦♠❡ tr❛❝❡s ♦❢ ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ ✬✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ②✬ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ s❡❡♥
✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛♥❞ t❤❛t t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ♠♦r❡ ❛♥❞ ♠♦r❡ st✉❞✐❡s ♦♥ t❤✐s t♦♣✐❝✳ șt ✐s
✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t t♦ ♥♦t✐❝❡ t❤❛t ❡✈ ❡♥ t❤♦✉❣❤ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ s❡❡ ❛♥ ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ r❡❝❡♥ t
❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡ t❤❛t ❢♦ ❝✉s❡s ♦♥ ✬❜✐❛s❡s✬ ❛♥❞ ✬✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ②✬ t❤❡r❡ ✐s ♥♦t ❝❧❡❛r ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♠♦♥
❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✇❤❛t ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ♠❡❛♥s ❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦ t♦ ✇❤♦♠ ✐t r❡❢❡rs✳ ș♥ ✭ ❘✉✲
❜✐♥st❡✐♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✶ ✮ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦r ❛r❣✉❡s t❤❛t ❛✱ ✈ ❛❣✉❡✱ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐s
♦❢ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✇❤♦ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇s t❤❡ ❛①✐♦♠s ♦❢ ✭ ❙❛ ✈ ❛❣❡ ✱ ✶✾✺✹ ✮✳ ❚❤✐s ✈✐❡✇✱ ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② s❤❛r❡❞
❜ ② ♠♦st r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs✱ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t ❛ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r tr✐❡s t♦ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ ❤✐s ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞

✷✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥
✉t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ✉s✐♥❣ ✉♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞ s✉❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ ❦ ❡② ❡❧❡♠❡♥ t ♦❢
t❤✐s ✈✐❡✇ ♦♥ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✐s t❤❛t ♦❢ ✉♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞ s✉❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s✱ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✐s
✐♠♠❡❞✐❛t❡❧② t❤♦✉❣❤ t ♦❢ ❛s t❤❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r t❤❛t ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡s ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ✉s✐♥❣ ❜✐❛s❡❞
s✉❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s✳ ❚❤✐s ❧✐♥❡ ♦❢ t❤♦✉❣❤ t✱ ♣✐♦♥❡❡r❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❦s ✭ ❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥ ✱
✶✾✼✸ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❚ ✈ ❡rs❦② ✱ ✶✾✽✹ ✮✱ ❤❛s ❝r❡❛t❡❞ ❛ ♥❡✇ ✜❡❧❞ ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❝❛❧❧❡❞
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ❚❤✐s t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✜❡❧❞ ❢♦ ❝✉s❡s ♦♥ t❤❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r② ❛♥❞ ❛♥❛❧✲
②s✐s ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ s✉❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦ ♦♥ t❤❡ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥s ❢r♦♠ t❤❡
❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ✳ ❉✉❡ t♦ t❤❡s❡ t ✇ ♦ ✇ ❛ ②s✱ ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞
t❤❡ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥s ❢r♦♠ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥✱ ♦❢ ♠❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r✐♥❣
✬✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ②✬ ✇ ❡ ✐♥❢❡r t❤❛t r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ✈✐❡✇ ❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦
t❤❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜✉t ❛❧s♦ ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ♠❡❛♥s ♦❢ ❛❝ ❤✐❡✈✐♥❣ t❤❡s❡
♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s✳
✷✳✽✳✶ ❲❤❛t ✐s ❛♥ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r❄
❆ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ❛s ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t❤❛t t❛❦ ❡s ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ t ✇✐t❤
❛❝ ❤✐❡✈✐♥❣ ❤✐s ✐♠♠❡❞✐❛t❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳ ș♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡✱ ✐t ✐s ♦❢t❡♥ ✐♠♣❧✐❡❞ t❤❛t
t❤❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐s t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤
❛♥❞ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✐s ♠❡❛s✉r❡❞ ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❞♦♥❡ t♦ r❡❛❝ ❤ t❤✐s
❣♦❛❧✳ ❚❤✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❧✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥✱ ♦❢ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✱ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ t❤❡ ❝❛✉s❡
♦❢ ♠❛♥ ② ❢❛❧s❡✲♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ r❡s✉❧ts ✐♥ ❥✉❞❣✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❆s t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡
♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧ ❛t❤❧❡t❡s✱ ✇❤♦ ❞♦ s♣ ♦rts ❢♦r ❛ ❧✐✈✐♥❣✱ ❛♥❞ ❛♠❛t❡✉r ❛t❤❧❡t❡s✱ ✇❤♦ ❞♦ s♣ ♦rts
❢♦r ♣❧❡❛s✉r❡✱ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ✇✐t❤ ❝❧❡❛r ♠♦♥❡t❛r② ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s✱ ❛♥❞
❛❧s♦ ♥♦ ✈✐❝❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ t♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st ♦r tr❛❞❡ ❥✉st ❢♦r t❤❡ t❤r✐❧❧ ♦❢ s❡❡✐♥❣
t❤❡ ✉♣✬s ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❋ r♦♠ t❤✐s ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇✱ ✇ ❡ ❛r❣✉❡ t❤❛t ✐t ✐s ♥♦t ❡❛s② t♦
✜♥❞ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t❤❛t ✐s ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ❤✐s ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳ ▲❡t ✉s ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t
❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✱ ✇✐t❤ ♥♦ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❡❞✉❝❛t✐♦♥✱ ❜✉②s st♦ ❝ ❦s✳ ❍✐s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ✐s
❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❝ ❤❛rts ✭♦r ♥❛♠❡s✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣✉r❝ ❤❛s❡❞ q✉❛♥ t✐t✐❡s ❞❡♣ ❡♥❞ ♦♥ t❤❡
st♦ ❝ ❦s✬ ♣r✐❝❡ q✉♦t❡s✳ ș♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♦❢ ♠❛①✐♠✐③✐♥❣ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢
✇ ❡❛❧t❤✱ s✉❝ ❤ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✳ ❲❤❡♥ ❛s❦ ❡❞✱ ♠♦st ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ❦✐♥❞s
♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs s❛ ② t❤❛t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♥❡✈ ❡r ❤❡❛r❞ ❛❜ ♦✉t ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ❛♥❞ ♣r♦❜❛❜❧② ♥❡✈ ❡r
✉s❡❞ t❤✐s ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ❛♥ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳ ▼♦st ❧✐❦ ❡❧② t❤❡s❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇ ❛♥ t❡❞ t♦ ❧❡❛r♥ ❛❜ ♦✉t
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛♥❞ ♠❛ ②❜ ❡ ❣❛✐♥ s♦♠❡ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤✳ ș♥ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ t❤✐s ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✱ ✇ ❡ s❛ ②
t❤❛t t❤✐s t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐s r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ❤❡ ✐s ❞♦✐♥❣ ❛❝t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ❤❡❧♣ ❤✐♠ ❧❡❛r♥
♠♦r❡ ❛❜ ♦✉t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛♥❞ t❤❛t ❝❛♥ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡ ♦✛❡r ❛ r❡t✉r♥✳ ș♥ ❡①tr❡♠✐s✱ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ s❛ ②
t❤❛t s♦♠❡♦♥❡ t❤❛t ❝♦♠♠✐ts s✉✐❝✐❞❡ ✐s r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❤✐s ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ✭♦❢ ♥♦t
❧✐✈✐♥❣ ❛♥ ②♠♦r❡✮✳ ❲✐t❤ t❤✐s ✐♥ ♠✐♥❞✱ ✐t ✐s ❤❛r❞ t♦ ✜♥❞ s♦♠❡♦♥❡ t❤❛t ✐s ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥
r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❤✐s ♣ ❡rs♦♥❛❧ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s✳ ș♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❛t
✇ ❛♥ t t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ st❡❛❞② r❡t✉r♥s✱ ♦t❤❡rs t❤❛t ✇ ❛♥ t ♥♦t t♦ ❧♦s❡ ♠♦♥❡② ✱ ❛ ❣r♦ ✇✐♥❣ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r
♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❛t ✇ ❛♥ t t♦ ❜ ❡ ❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ♦r ✐♥ ❧✐♥❡ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡✐r r❡❧✐❣✐♦✉s ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s✱ s♦♠❡ ✭✐❢ ♥♦t
♠❛♥ ②✮ t❤❛t ✇ ❛♥ t t♦ ❣❡t ✈ ❡r② r✐❝ ❤ ✭❛s q✉✐❝ ❦ ❛s ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡✮ ❛♥❞ st✐❧❧ ♠❛♥ ② ♦t❤❡r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
✇✐t❤ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s✳ ❙♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s ❝❛♥♥♦t ❡✈ ❡♥ ❜ ❡ q✉❛♥ t✐✜❡❞ ❛♥❞
♠❡❛s✉r❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❤❛r❞ t♦ r❛♥❦ ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈ ❡ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♦❢

✷✳✽✳ ❘❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ❛♥❞ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✷✼
✉t✐❧✐t ② ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥✳ ❋ r♦♠ t❤✐s ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇✱ t❤❡ ✈ ❛st ♠❛ ❥♦r✐t ② ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♠❛❦ ❡
r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡✐r ♦ ✇♥ s✉❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s✳ ș♥ ❛♥ ❛tt❡♠♣t t♦
❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ❛♥❞ ❥✉st✐❢② t❤❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ♦♥❡ s❤♦✉❧❞ ❦ ❡❡♣ ✐♥ ♠✐♥❞ t❤❛t ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❝❛♥ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ❜ ❡ ❜ ❡tt❡r ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❜ ② ❛ ♠✐① ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❛t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t
♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s ✭❛♠♦♥❣ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❢♦✉♥❞✮ r❛t❤❡r t❤❛♥ ❜ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❞♦✐♥❣ ✉♥♣r❡❞✐❝t❛❜❧❡ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✇❤✐❧st ❛❧❧ ❤❛ ✈✐♥❣ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ s✐♥❣❧❡ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈ ❡
♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳
❲ ❡ ❛r❣✉❡❞ t❤❛t ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ r❡❣❛r❞❡❞ ❛s r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ❤✐s ♣ ❡rs♦♥❛❧
♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈ ❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ t❤❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥
♦❢ t❛❦✐♥❣ ♦♥ ♠♦r❡ r✐s❦ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❢♦r ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t❤❛t ❤❛s t❤❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♦❢
♠❛❦✐♥❣ ❛ ❧♦t ♦❢ ♠♦♥❡② ✈ ❡r② ❢❛st ✭✇❤✐❧❡ ❞✐sr❡❣❛r❞✐♥❣ r✐s❦✮✳ ș❢ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✬s ❛❝t✐♦♥s
❛r❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❤✐s ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ✇ ❡ s❛ ② t❤❛t t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐s r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥
r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ❤✐s ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳ șt ✐s ✐♥ t✉✐t✐✈ ❡ t❤❛t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦♥✬t ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ❞♦ t❤❡ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧
❛❝t✐♦♥s ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡✐r ❣♦❛❧s✳ ❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t❤❛t ✇ ❛♥ ts t♦ ♠❛✐♥ t❛✐♥
t❤❡ ♣✉r❝ ❤❛s✐♥❣ ♣ ♦ ✇ ❡r ♦❢ ❤✐s ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ s❤♦✉❧❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st ✐♥ ❛ ❜ ♦♥❞ ♦r ♦t❤❡r s❡❝✉r✐t ② t❤❛t
❣✉❛r❛♥ t❡❡s ❛ r❡t✉r♥ ❡q✉❛❧ t♦ ❛t ❧❡❛st t❤❡ ❛♥♥ ✉❛❧ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ r❛t❡✳ ❆ ❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣❧② ✱ t ✇ ♦
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❛t ❜✉② ❜ ♦♥❞s ✇✐t❤ ❛ ✺✪ r❡t✉r♥ ❛♥❞ r❡s♣ ❡❝t✐✈ ❡❧② ❛ ✸✪ r❡t✉r♥ ❛r❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧
♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✲✇✐s❡ ② ❡t ✇❤❛t ❝❛♥ ✇ ❡ s❛ ② ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡✐r ❛❝t✐♦♥s✲✇✐s❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ②❄ ❖r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞
t❤❛t t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✬ ❝♦✉♥ tr② ❤❛s s❤♦ ✇♥ ❛ ✈ ❡r② st❛❜❧❡ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ r❛t❡ ❛t ❛r♦✉♥❞ ✷✪ ♣ ❡r
② ❡❛r✱ ✇ ❡ s❛ ② t❤❛t ❜ ♦t❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥✲✇✐s❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✳ ș❢ ✇ ❡ ❝♦♠♣❛r❡ t❤❡s❡ t ✇ ♦
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ❛♥♦t❤❡r ♦♥❡ t❤❛t ❜✉②s ❛ ❣♦ ✈ ❡r♥♠❡♥ t ❜ ♦♥❞ ✐♥❞❡①❡❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ ♦✣❝✐❛❧
✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥✲r❛t❡✱ ✇❤❛t ❝❛♥ ✇ ❡ s❛ ② ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ❛❝t✐♦♥s❄ ș♥ ♦✉r ✈✐❡✇✱
✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ s❛ ② t❤❛t ❛❧❧ t❤r❡❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥✲✇✐s❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✱ t❤♦✉❣❤ ❛r❣✉♠❡♥ ts ❝❛♥
❜ ❡ ♠❛❞❡ ❛❜ ♦✉t ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ♦♥❡ ✐s ❜ ❡tt❡r ✲ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❛❝t✐♦♥ ✐s ♠♦r❡ ✧ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✧✳
❲ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ❛s ❜ ❡✐♥❣ r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s ✲ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✲
✇✐s❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✱ ❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✇❤❡♥ r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ ❛❝t✐♦♥s s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ t♦ ❛♥ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡
✲ ❛❝t✐♦♥✲✇✐s❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✳ ❖♥❡ ❝❛♥ s❡❡ t❤❛t ❛♥ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✲✇✐s❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✇✐❧❧
♠❛❦ ❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ r❛♥❦ ❡❞ ❛s ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ✬♠♦r❡✬ ♦r ✬❧❡ss✬ ❝❧♦s❡ t♦ t❤❡ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ ♦❜✲
❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥✳
✷✳✽✳✷ ❆r❡ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♣r❡s❡♥ t ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts❄
❚❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts t❤❡♦r② ✭❊▼❚✮✱ ✜rst ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ❋ ❛♠❛ ✱ ✶✾✼✵ ✮✱ s❛ ②s t❤❛t
✐♥ ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛❧❧ ♥❡✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ✐♠♠❡❞✐❛t❡❧② ❛♥❞ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ✐♥ t❡❣r❛t❡❞
✐♥ t♦ ♣r✐❝❡✳ ș♥ ♦t❤❡r ✇ ♦r❞s✱ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❝♦rr❡❝t ❛♥❞ ❛♥ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝❛♥♥♦t ♠❛❦ ❡
❛❜♥♦r♠❛❧ ♣r♦✜ts ✭♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✮✳ ❚❤✐s t❤❡♦r② ❞♦ ❡s
♥♦t ✐♠♣❧② t❤❛t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛r❡ ♣ ♦♣✉❧❛t❡❞ ❜ ② s♦♠❡ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ❜✉t ✐♥st❡❛❞
✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈ ❡ ✬r❛t✐♦♥❛❧❧②✬ ❛s ❛ ✇❤♦❧❡✳ ❲❤❡♥ r❡❢❡rr✐♥❣ t♦
✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✱ t❤❡ ❊▼❚ ❞❡❢❡♥❞❡rs ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ t❤❛t ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❝❛♥♥♦t s✉r✈✐✈ ❡ ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♥❝❡✱ ❛s ♣ ♦✐♥ t❡❞ ♦✉t ✐♥✐t✐❛❧❧② ✐♥ ✭ ❋ r✐❡❞♠❛♥ ✱ ✶✾✺✸ ✮✱ t❤❡②
✇✐❧❧ ❡①❤❛✉st t❤❡✐r ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ❜❛❞ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s✱ ❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧② ❜ ② ❜✉②✐♥❣ ❛t ❤✐❣❤
♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❛t ❧♦ ✇ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ș♥ t✉✐t✐✈ ❡❧② t❤✐s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ♠❛❦ ❡s ✐♠♠❡❞✐❛t❡ s❡♥s❡✿

✷✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥
r❡♣ ❡❛t❡❞❧② ❜✉②✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❛t ❛ ❧♦ss ✇✐❧❧ ❡①❤❛✉st ♦♥❡✬s ✇ ❡❛❧t❤✳ ❆ t ❛ s❡❝♦♥❞ ❧♦ ♦❦✱
✇ ❡ s❛ ② t❤❛t ✐t ✐s ♥♦t ✈ ❡r② ♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡ t♦ s❡❡ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t❤❛t ✇✐❧❧ ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ❜✉② ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧
❛t ❛ ❧♦ss✳ șt ✐s s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ❧✐❦ ❡❧② t❤❛t ❛❢t❡r ❜✉②✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✱ ❡✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ ✐t ✐s ♦ ✈ ❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞
❛t t❤❡ ♠♦♠❡♥ t ♦❢ ❜✉②✐♥❣✱ ✐ts ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❣♦ ✉♣ ❡✈ ❡♥ ♠♦r❡✳ ❆ r✐s✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡ ❣✐✈ ❡s ❛♥
✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t❤❡ ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t ② ♦❢ ❝❧♦s✐♥❣ ❤✐s ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♣r♦✜t ✲ t❤❛t ❝♦✉❧❞
❤❡❧♣ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ ❡❛r❧✐❡r ❧♦ss❡s✳ șt ✐s ♥♦t ❧✐❦ ❡❧② t❤❛t ❛❧❧ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
✇ ♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t ❝❧♦s❡ ♦✉t ❛ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ ♦r t❤❛t ❛♥ ♦ ✈ ❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞ ❛ss❡t ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t
❜ ❡❝♦♠❡ ❡✈ ❡♥ ♠♦r❡ ♦ ✈ ❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞✳ ș♥❞❡❡❞✱ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ♥ ✉♠❡r♦✉s ❛rt✐❝❧❡s t❤❛t ❜✉✐❧❞ ❛♥❞
t❡st ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ✇✐t❤ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ♣r❡s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡✐r ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s
❝♦♥ tr♦❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ș♥ ✭ ❉❡ ▲♦♥❣ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✶✾✾✶ ✮ ✇ ❡ s❡❡ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts ♦❢ ❛ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦
❛❧❧♦ ❝❛t✐♦♥ ❜ ② ♥♦✐s❡ tr❛❞❡rs ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❝t ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t r❡t✉r♥ ✈ ❛r✐❛♥❝❡s✳ ❚❤❡
❛✉t❤♦rs s❤♦ ✇ t❤❛t t❤❡s❡ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛❝t✐♦♥✲✇✐s❡ tr❛❞❡rs ✭✐♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✬♥♦✐s❡✬
tr❛❞❡rs✮ ❝❛♥ ❡❛r♥ ❤✐❣❤❡r ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s t❤❛♥ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ s✐♠✐❧❛r r✐s❦
❛ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ t❤❡② ❝❛♥ ❡✈ ❡♥ ❛rr✐✈ ❡ t♦ ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳
❯s✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✬ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s✱ ✭ ❊✈ ❛♥s ❉✳ ❛♥❞ ◆❡tt❧❡ ✱ ✷✵✵✸ ✮
❛r❣✉❡s t❤❛t ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❝❛♥ ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② ❜ ❡ ❛♥ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥❛r② ❞❡s✐❣♥ ❢❡❛t✉r❡ r❛t❤❡r
t❤❛♥ ❛ ✢❛ ✇ ♦❢ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥✲♠❛❦✐♥❣✳ ❚❤✐s st✉❞② s❤♦ ✇s t❤❛t ✉♥❞❡r ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❝♦♥✲
❞✐t✐♦♥s ✉♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✉s✐♥❣ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ♦✉t✲
♣ ❡r❢♦r♠❡❞ ❜ ② ❛❣❡♥ ts ✇✐t❤ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ❜✐❛s❡s t❤❛t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ ❞♦ ❝✉♠❡♥ t❡❞ ✐♥ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧
st✉❞✐❡s✳ ❚❤❡ ✐❞❡❛ ♦❢ ✬✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✬ ❛❣❡♥ ts s✉r✈✐✈✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❛ ❝♦♠♣ ❡t✐t✐✈ ❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐s ❝♦✉♥ t❡r✲
✐♥ t✉✐t✐✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ✐t ✐♠♠❡❞✐❛t❡❧② r❛✐s❡s ❝r✐t✐❝s✳ ❲ ❡ t❤✐♥❦ t❤❛t ♠♦st ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝r✐t✐❝ ❢♦r t❤❡
s✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ♦❢ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✐s ❞✉❡ t♦ ❝♦♥❢✉s✐♦♥ ✐♥ t❡r♠s✳ ❲ ❡ ❧♦ ♦❦ ✜rst ❛t t❤❡ ♦r✐❣✐♥s ♦❢
❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥❛r② r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛♥❞ t❤❛♥ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ✇❤ ② t❤❡s❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t ❞♦♥✬t ❛♣♣❧② ✐♥
r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳
❈❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✬r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ②✬ ❤❛s ❜ ❡❡♥ ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ❛s ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❛♥
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ♦♥❡ s❤♦✉❧❞ t❛❦ ❡ ✇❤✐❧st tr②✐♥❣ t♦ ❛❝ ❤✐❡✈ ❡
t❤❡ ❣♦❛❧ ♦❢ ♠❛①✐♠✐③✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ❤✐s ✇ ❡❛❧t❤✳ ❚❤❡ ♣✐♦♥❡❡r✐♥❣ ✇ ♦r❦
♦❢ ✭ ▼✉t❤ ✱ ✶✾✻✶ ✮✱ ✭ ❘❛❞♥❡r ✱ ✶✾✼✷ ✮ ✱✭ ▲✉❝❛s✱ ❘♦❜ ❡rt ❊ ✱ ✶✾✼✽ ✮ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♣✉t t❤❡ ♥♦t✐♦♥ ♦❢
r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ t❤❡ ❝❡♥ t❡r ♦❢ ❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ș♥ ♦r❞❡r ❢♦r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t♦
♣ ♦rtr❛ ② ❛♥❞ ❡①♣❧♦✐t r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s t❤❡② ♠ ✉st ❜ ❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r t❤❡ tr✉❡
❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ✐♥ t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠ ② ✲ ♦t❤❡r✇✐s❡✱ ❛s ♣ ♦✐♥ t❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ●✐❧❜ ♦❛ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱
✷✵✵✾ ✮ t❤❡r❡ ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t ♠ ✉❝ ❤ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ❜ ❡❤✐♥❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ❇❛ ② ❡s✐❛♥ r✉❧❡ ✐♥ ♠❛❦✐♥❣
❛ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ✭❢♦ ♦t♥♦t❡ ✲ ❜ ❡tt❡r ♥♦t ❞❡❝✐❞❡ ❛t ❛❧❧✮✳ ❚ ♦ ❞❡❢❡♥❞ t❤✐s ✐❞❡❛✱ ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❦♥♦ ✇✐♥❣ ✭♦r ❣❡tt✐♥❣ t♦ ❦♥♦ ✇✮ t❤❡ tr✉❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ♦❢ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✱ ✭ ❆❧❝ ❤✐❛♥ ✱
✶✾✺✵ ✮✱ ✭ ❊♥❦ ❡ ✱ ✶✾✺✶ ✮✱ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❋ r✐❡❞♠❛♥ ✱ ✶✾✺✸ ✮ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❛r❣✉❡❞ t❤❡ ✐❞❡❛ ♦❢
♥❛t✉r❛❧ s❡❧❡❝t✐♦♥ ✭♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s❡❧❡❝t✐♦♥ ❤ ②♣ ♦t❤❡s✐s✮✳ ș♥ ❛ s✐♠✐❧❛r ✇ ❛ ② ✱ ✭ ❈♦ ♦t♥❡r ✱
✶✾✻✹ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❋ ❛♠❛ ✱ ✶✾✻✺ ✮ ❛r❣✉❡❞ t❤❛t ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ✬❜❛❞✬ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢
✭♦r ✇✐t❤ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s✮ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ❞r✐✈ ❡♥ ♦✉t ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✭t❤❡② ✇✐❧❧ ❧♦ ♦s❡ t❤❡✐r
♠♦♥❡② ❛♥❞ ✇✐❧❧ ♥♦t ❜ ❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❣❡t ♥❡✇ ♦♥❡s✮ ❜ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s✳
❆ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞ t❤❛t t❤✐s ❤ ②♣ ♦t❤❡s✐s ♦❢ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ s❡❧❡❝t✐♦♥
✭♦r ♠❛r❦ ❡t s❡❧❡❝t✐♦♥✮ ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ❤♦❧❞✳ ✭ ❉❡ ▲♦♥❣ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✶✾✾✶ ✮ ❤❛s s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞
t❤❛t ✉s✐♥❣ ♣❧❛✉s✐❜❧❡ ❜✐❛s❡s✱ ♥♦✐s❡ tr❛❞❡rs ❝❛♥ s✉r✈✐✈ ❡ ❛s ❛ ❣r♦✉♣✱ ❡❛r♥ ❤✐❣❤❡r r❡t✉r♥s

✷✳✾✳ ❆ ✈ ❡r② s❤♦rt ❤✐st♦r② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✷✾
t❤❛♥ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ❡♥ ❜ ❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ ✐♥ t❡r♠s ♦❢ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤✱
✐♥ t❤❡ ❧♦♥❣ r✉♥✳ ❙✐♠✐❧❛r❧② ✱ ✭ ❇❧✉♠❡ ❛♥❞ ❊❛s❧❡② ✱ ✷✵✵✶ ✮ ❛r❣✉❡s t❤❛t ✐♥ ❛♥ ✐♥❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡
♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ❝❛♥ s✉r✈✐✈ ❡✳ ❚❤✐s r❡s✉❧t✱ ❛s ❛r❣✉❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t
❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡♥❡ss ✐s ♥❛t✉r❛❧✳
❆s ✇ ❡ ♣ ♦✐♥ t❡❞ ♦✉t ✐♥ t❤❡ ✜rst ♣❛rt ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛rt✐❝❧❡✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t
♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s ✐♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛♥❞ t❤❡✐r ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡✐r ♣ ❡rs♦♥❛❧
♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s ❛♥❞ ♥♦t ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ❛ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈ ❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳ ❙♦✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ❛♣♣❛r❡♥ t❧②
✬✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✬ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs ♣ ❡rs✐st ✐♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❡✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ t❤❡✐r ❣♦❛❧s ❛r❡ ♥♦t t❤♦s❡ ♦❢ ✉t✐❧✐t ②
♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♦r t❤❡✐r ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ t♦ t❤❡ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈ ❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳ ș♥
r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧ ♠❛♥❛❣❡rs ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞s ❛r❡ ❜ ❡♥❝ ❤♠❛r❦ ❡❞ ♦♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
✐♥❞❡①❡s ♦r r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ t♦ ♦t❤❡r s✐♠✐❧❛r ♠❛♥❛❣❡rs ♦r ❢✉♥❞s✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ♠♦♥❡② ❝♦♥ tr♦❧❧❡❞
❜ ② ✬❧❡ss✲♣ ❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣✬ ♠❛♥❛❣❡rs ✢♦ ✇ t♦ ✬♠♦r❡✲♣ ❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣✬ ♠❛♥❛❣❡rs✳ ❲❤❡♥ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r
❛ss❡ts ❛r❡ ♦ ✈ ❡r♣r✐❝❡❞✱ s♦♠❡ ❢✉♥❞s ❝❛♥ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❡①❝❡ss r❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞ ❛ttr❛❝t ♠♦r❡ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧
✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐s ❧♦st ❜ ② ❢✉♥❞s t❤❛t ♠❛ ② ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❤❛❞ t❤❡ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈ ❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ ✐♥ ✭ ❨ ❛♥ ✱
✷✵✵✽ ✮ ✐t ✐s ❛r❣✉❡❞ t❤❛t ❡✈ ❡♥ ✇❤❡♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♦r ❢✉♥❞s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈ ❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡
❛❝❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡❞ ❜ ② s✉❜✲♦♣t✐♠❛❧ ❛❝t✐♦♥s✱ t❤❡✐r ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥❛r② ❞✐s❛♣♣ ❡❛r❛♥❝❡ ❢r♦♠ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
✇✐❧❧ t❛❦ ❡ ❛ ❧♦t ♦❢ t✐♠❡ ✲ ❧♦♥❣ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ ❢♦r ♥❡✇ ❣❡♥❡r❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ s✐♠✐❧❛r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t♦ ❡♥ t❡r
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❍❛ ✈✐♥❣ ❛r❣✉❡❞ t❤❛t s♦♠❡ ❢♦r♠s ♦❢ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ❝❛♥ ♣ ❡rs✐st ✐♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱
✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ♥❡①t ❞✐s❝✉ss ❛❜ ♦✉t ♠♦ ❞❡❧❧✐♥❣ t❤✐s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✐♥ t♦ ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ st✉❞✐❡s✳
✷✳✾ ❆ ✈❡r② s❤♦rt ❤✐st♦r② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts r❡s❡❛r❝❤
❖✉r st✉❞② ✉s❡s t❤❡ t♦ ♦❧s ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣✉t❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ✐s ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ t❤❡♦r② ♦❢
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ❚❤✐s ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ♣r❡s❡♥ ts ❛ s❤♦rt ❤✐st♦r② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤
❛♥❞ ❤✐❣❤❧✐❣❤ ts t❤❡ ♣❧❛❝❡ ♦❢ ♦✉r ✇ ♦r❦ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡r♥ ❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t❤❡♦r✐❡s✳
❖♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡❛r❧✐❡st ♠♦ ❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✇ ❛s ❝r❡❛t❡❞ ✐♥ ❆♥ t ✇ ❡r♣✱ ❇❡❧❣✐✉♠ ✐♥
✶✺✸✶✳ ș♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❧❡♥❞❡rs ❛♥❞ ❜r♦❦ ❡rs ♠❡❡t t❤❡r❡ t♦ ❡①❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ❣♦ ✈ ❡r♥♠❡♥ t✱ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②
❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❞❡❜t ♥♦t❡s✳ ❙✐♥❝❡ t❤❛♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❝♦♥st❛♥ t❧② ❣r♦ ✇♥
❛♥❞ ❡✈ ♦❧✈ ❡❞✳ ❚❤❡ t♦t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❧❞✬s ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦✱ ❝♦♠♣r✐s✐♥❣ ❡q✉✐t ② ♠❛r❦ ❡t
❝❛♣✐t❛❧✐③❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ♦✉tst❛♥❞✐♥❣ ❜ ♦♥❞s ❛♥❞ ❧♦❛♥s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡❞ ❢r♦♠ ✧✩✶✼✺ tr✐❧ ❧✐♦♥
✐♥ ✷✵✵✽ t♦ ✩✷✶✷ tr✐❧ ❧✐♦♥ ❛t t❤❡ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ ✷✵✶✵✱ s✉r♣ ❛ss✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣r ❡✈✐♦✉s ✷✵✵✼ ♣ ❡ ❛❦✧
❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ ❛ r❡♣ ♦rt ❜ ② t❤❡ ▼❝❑✐♥s❡② ●❧♦❜❛❧ ș♥st✐t✉t❡ ❢r♦♠ ❆✉❣✉st ✷✵✶✶✳ ș❢ ✇ ❡
t❛❦ ❡ ✐♥ t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥ t t❤❡ ❢❛❝t t❤❛t t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❧❞✬s ●❉❖ ✐♥ ✷✵✶✵ ✇ ❛s ✩✼✹✳✺✹ tr✐❧❧✐♦♥ ✇ ❡
❝❛♥ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ t❤❡ ✈✐t❛❧ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ♠❛❣♥✐t✉❞❡
✐♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t ② ✱ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❝♦♠❡ ❛ ❝r✐t✐❝❛❧ ✐♥❢r❛str✉❝t✉r❡ ♦❢ ♦✉r
s♦ ❝✐❡t ② ✳ ❈♦♥s❡q✉❡♥ t❧② ✱ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛r❡ ❛♥❞ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ ❢♦r ❛ ❧♦♥❣ t✐♠❡ t❤❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t
♦❢ ❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤✳
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♥❛t✉r❡ ♦❢ ❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❢♦ ❝✉s❡s ♠❛✐♥❧② ♦♥ ♣❛st ♦❜s❡r✲
✈ ❛t✐♦♥s✱ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ❤❛s ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ❧♦ ♦❦ ❡❞ t♦ ❛♥❛❧②s❡✱ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t ❛♥❞ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣♠❡♥ ts✳ ❇❡❢♦r❡ ✶✾✺✵✱ ♠♦st ♦❢ t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❦ ❞♦♥❡ ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✇ ❛s
❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐✈ ❡✳ ❚❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ s♦♠❡ ♥♦t❛❜❧❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs✱ ❜ ❡❢♦r❡ ✶✾✺✵✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❡♥❣❛❣❡❞ ✐♥ ♠♦r❡

✸✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥
❛①✐♦♠❛t✐❝ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤❡s t♦ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ❆♠♦♥❣ t❤❡s❡ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ♠❡♥ t✐♦♥ ✭ ❋✐s❤❡r ✱
✶✾✷✺ ✮ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥s ❛ t❤❡♦r② ♦❢ ✐♥ t❡r❡st r❛t❡s ❛♥❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥ t❡r♥❛❧ r❛t❡ ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥✱
✭ ❲✐❧❧✐❛♠s ✱ ✶✾✸✽ ✮ t❤❛t ♠♦ ❞❡❧❧❡❞ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛s ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t❡❞
❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤ ♣❛ ②♠❡♥ ts ✭❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s✮ ♦r ✭ ❇❛❝ ❤❡❧✐❡r ✱ ✶✾✵✵ ✮ t❤❛t ♣✉❜❧✐s❤❡❞ ✐♥ t❤✐s ❞♦ ❝✲
t♦r❛❧ t❤❡s✐s ❛ t❤❡♦r② ♦♥ r❛♥❞♦♠ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♣r✐❝❡ ♠♦ ✈ ❡♠❡♥ ts ❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦ s❡t t❤❡ ❢r❛♠❡✇ ♦r❦
♦❢ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❛❜str❛❝t✐♦♥ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ t❤❡ ❲✐❡♥❡r ❙r♦ ❝❡ss✳
❆❢t❡r ✶✾✺✵ t❤❡ ♥❡♦ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❡r❛ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❜ ❡❣❛♥✳ ❚❤❡ ❜ ❡❣✐♥♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ t❤✐s ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞
✇ ❛s ♠❛r❦ ❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❦s ♦❢ ✭ ▼❛r❦ ♦ ✇✐t③ ✱ ✶✾✺✷ ✮ ♦♥ ❙ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❚❤❡♦r② ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡❞ ❜ ②
✭ ❚ ♦❜✐♥ ✱ ✶✾✺✻ ✮ ✇✐t❤ ❤✐s t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❡①t❡♥s✐♦♥s ♦♥ t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ❢r♦♥ t✐❡r ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧
♠❛r❦ ❡t ❧✐♥❡✳ ❆❧t❤♦✉❣❤ r❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥❛r② ❛t t❤❡✐r t✐♠❡✱ t❤❡s❡ t❤❡♦r✐❡s ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡❞ ♠❡t❤✲
♦ ❞s ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ✈ ❡r② str✐❝t ❤ ②♣ ♦t❤❡s✐s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❤❛r❞ t♦ ❜ ❡ ♠❡❡t ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳
❖t❤❡r r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs ❜❛s❡❞ t❤❡✐r ✇ ♦r❦ ♦♥ ❛ ♥❡✇ ❢♦✉♥❞✐♥❣ t❤❡♦r② ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ t❤❡
❈❛♣✐t❛❧ ❆ss❡t ❙r✐❝✐♥❣ ▼❡t❤♦ ❞✳ ❚❤❡ ❈❆❙▼✱ ❝r❡❛t❡❞ s❡♣❛r❛t❡❧② ❜ ② ✭ ❙❤❛r♣ ❡ ✱ ✶✾✻✹ ✮✱
✭ ▲✐♥ t♥❡r ✱ ✶✾✻✺ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ▼♦ss✐♥ ✱ ✶✾✻✻ ✮✱ ♦✛❡rs ❛ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ ❢♦r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t♦ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ s❡❝✉r✐t✐❡s✳
❊✈ ❡♥ t♦ ❞❛ ② t❤❡ ❈❆❙▼ ✐s ❞❡❜❛t❡❞ ❛♥❞ ♥ ✉♠❡r♦✉s st✉❞✐❡s ♦✛❡r ♣r♦ ♦❢ ❢♦r ♦r ❛❣❛✐♥st
t❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✐❞✐t ② ♦❢ t❤✐s t❤❡♦r② ✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♥♦♥✲❛①✐♦♠❛t✐❝ q✉❛❧✐t ② ♦❢ s♦ ❝✐❛❧ s❝✐❡♥❝❡s
✐♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✐♥ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r✱ ❛ t❤❡♦r② ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❛r❣✉❡❞ ❜ ♦t❤ ✇ ❛ ②s ✇✐t❤♦✉t
❛♥ ② ♦♥❡ ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❞❡❝❧❛r❡ ❛ ❝❧❡❛r ✇✐♥♥✐♥❣ ❛r❣✉♠❡♥ t✳ ❊✈ ❡♥ s♦✱ t❤❡ ❈❆❙▼ ❤❛s ❛t
✐ts ❝♦r❡ ❛ s❡t ♦❢ str♦♥❣ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❧✐❦ ❡✿ ❛❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛♥❞ r✐s❦✲❛ ✈ ❡rs❡
❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ❜r♦❛❞❧② ❞✐✈ ❡rs✐✜❡❞ ❛❝r♦ss ❛ r❛♥❣❡ ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ ts✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✱ ❛♥❞
❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧② t❤❡ ♦♥❡ ✐♠♣❧②✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ r❡❝❡♥ t❧②
s❝r✉t✐♥✐③❡❞ ❜ ② ❛ s❡r✐❡s ♦❢ st✉❞✐❡s ✐♥ t❤❡ ✜❡❧❞s ♦❢ ♣s②❝ ❤♦❧♦❣② ❛♥❞ s♦ ❝✐♦❧♦❣② ✳ ❙✐♥❝❡ t❤❡
✬✼✵ ② ❡❛rs✱ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs ❧✐❦ ❡ ❉❛♥✐❡❧ ❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❆♠♦s ❚ ✈ ❡rs❦② ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤✲
✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈ ❡ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❡rr♦rs ♠❛❞❡ ❜ ② ❤ ✉♠❛♥s ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss ♦❢ r✐s❦②
❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ♠❛❦✐♥❣✳ ș♥ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ t❤❡ ◆♦❜ ❡❧ ❙r✐③❡ ❢♦r ❊❝♦♥♦♠ ② ❛ ✇ ❛r❞❡❞ ✐♥ ✷✵✵✷ ❢♦r ✭ ❑❛❤✲
♥❡♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❚ ✈ ❡rs❦② ✱ ✶✾✼✾ ✮ ✇ ♦r❦ ♦♥ ✧Pr ♦s♣ ❡ ❝t ❚❤❡ ♦r②✧ ✱ ✇ ❡ s❡❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝
❝♦♠♠ ✉♥✐t ② ❛❝ ❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣❡❞ t❤❡ ✐♥❝♦♥s✐st❡♥❝✐❡s ♦❢ s♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❢♦✉♥❞✲
✐♥❣ t❤❡♦r✐❡s✬ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ r❡❛❧✐t✐❡s ♦❢ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r
✐♥ r✐s❦✲r❡❧❛t❡❞ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❋ r♦♠ t❤❡s❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r✐❡s ❛ ♥❡✇ ✜❡❧❞ ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✇ ❛s
❝r❡❛t❡❞✱ ♥❛♠❡❧② ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ❋ ♦r ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡ r❡✈✐❡✇ ♦♥ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧
✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✇ ❡ r❡❝♦♠♠❡♥❞ t❤❡ ✇r✐t✐♥❣s ♦❢ ✭ ❍✐rs❤❧❡✐❢❡r ❛♥❞ ❚ ❡♦❤ ✱ ✷✵✵✸ ✮✱ ✭ ❇❛r❜ ❡r✐s ❛♥❞
❚❤❛❧❡r ✱ ✷✵✵✸ ✮✱ ✭ ❙✉❜r❛❤♠❛♥ ② ❛♠ ✱ ✷✵✵✽ ✮✳
✷✳✶✵ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ❝❤❛♣t❡r
ș♥ t❤✐s ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✇ ❡ ♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ t❤❡ s♦ ❝✐❛❧ ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝♦♥ t❡①t t❤❛t ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t❡s ♦✉r
st✉❞② ✳ ❆s ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡❞ ❜ ② ♦✉r r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s✱ ✇ ❡ ❡①♣❧♦r❡ t❤❡ ❝❛✉s❛❧ ❧✐♥❦s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ s❡r✐❡s ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❲ ❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ t❤❡
♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ✇ ❡ ✉s❡✱ ❞❡t❛✐❧✐♥❣ ✐ts ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✱ ❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s✳ ❲ ❡
❡♥❞ t❤✐s ✜rst ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✇✐t❤ ❛ s❤♦rt ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ❛❝t✐♦♥✲✇✐s❡ r❛t✐♦✲
♥❛❧✐t ② ❛♥❞ ❛ s❤♦rt ❤✐st♦r② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤✳ ❚❤❡ ♦r❣❛♥✐s❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ r❡st ♦❢ t❤❡
❞♦ ❝✉♠❡♥ t ✐s ❛s ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇s✳

✷✳✶✵✳ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✸✶
ș♥ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷ ✇ ❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t ✇ ❡ st✉❞②✿ ❤♦ ✇ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❢♦r♠ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ❤♦ ✇ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝♦♥str✉❝t t❤❡✐r ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ s❡♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs✳
❲ ❡ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡ ✇✐t❤ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ♣r♦ ♦❢ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✬♣✉③③❧❡s✬ ✇ ❡ s❡❡❦ t♦ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥✳ ș♥
t❤❡ ❧❛st ♣❛rt ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✇ ❡ ❞✐s❝✉ss t❤❡ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❢♦✉♥❞❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♦✉r r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤✳
ș♥ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✸ ✇ ❡ ❣✐✈ ❡ ✐♥✲❞❡♣t❤ ❞❡t❛✐❧s ❛❜ ♦✉t ✇❤❛t ✐s ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ❛♥❞ ✇ ❡ r❡✈✐❡✇ t❤❡ r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥ t ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡✳ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹ ♣r❡s❡♥ ts t❤❡
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✇ ❡ ❜✉✐❧t ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❝✉ss❡s t❤❡ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ✉s❡❞ ❢♦r t❡st✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❝❛❧✐❜r❛t✐♦♥✳
❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺ ♣r❡s❡♥ ts s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ r✉♥s ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ ❛♥s✇ ❡rs t♦ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡s✲
t✐♦♥s✳❈❤❛♣t❡r ✼ ♣r❡s❡♥ ts ❛ ❝❛s❡✲st✉❞② ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♦✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ❛s ❛ t♦ ♦❧ ❢♦r
r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s✳ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✽ ❞r❛ ✇s t❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s✱ r❡st❛t❡s ♦✉r
✜♥❞✐♥❣s ❛♥❞ ♦✛❡rs ❤✐♥ ts t♦ ❢✉t✉r❡ ✇ ♦r❦✳

❈❤❛♣t❡r ✸
❖❜❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞②
❈♦♥t❡♥ts
✸✳✶ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✹
✸✳✷ ❆s②♠♠❡tr② ❛♥❞ q✉❛❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✻
✸✳✸ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✽
✸✳✹ ❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✾
✸✳✺ Pr✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✶
✸✳✻ Pr✐❝❡ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✸
✸✳✼ ❈❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤❡s t♦ st✉❞②✐♥❣ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✼
✸✳✽ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✽
ș♥ t❤✐s ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✇ ❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s t❤❛t ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡ t❤❡ s②st❡♠
✇ ❡ st✉❞②✿ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❲ ❡ ✈✐❡✇ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❧✐❦ ❡ ❛ s②st❡♠
❝♦♠♣ ♦s❡❞ ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ❡❧❡♠❡♥ ts✿ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ s♦✉r❝❡s✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ♦r❞❡rs✱ ♣r✐❝❡
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠s ❛♥❞ tr❛♥s♠✐ss✐♦♥ ♠❡❞✐❛✳ ▲♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ♦♥❧② ❛t ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱
✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ✈✐❡✇ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛s ❛ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s s②st❡♠ t❤❛t ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡s ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t
s♦✉r❝❡s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ✈✐❛ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❡rs ✭t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✮✱ ✐♥ t♦ ❛♥ ♦✉t♣✉t ❝❛❧❧❡❞
t❤❡ ✬♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✬✳
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❋✐❣✉r❡ ✸✳✶✿ ●❧♦❜❛❧ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣②

✸✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✸✳ ❖❜ ❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞②
ș♥ t❤✐s ✇ ♦r❦ ✇ ❡ ❢♦ ❝✉s ♦♥ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ ♣❛rt ♦❢ t❤✐s s②st❡♠✿ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱
✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♠❛❞❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t ❤♦ ✇ ♦t❤❡r ♣❛rts ♦❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇ ♦r❦s✳ ❚❤❡
❢♦❧❧♦ ✇✐♥❣ ♣❛r❛❣r❛♣❤s ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡ ♦✉r ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥s ❝♦♥st✐t✉t❡ t❤❡
❜❛s✐s ♦❢ ❛ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r t❤❛t ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡s ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳
✸✳✶ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s
❚❤❡ ❜❛s✐❝ ✐♥❣r❡❞✐❡♥ t t❤❛t ❢✉❡❧s ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❲ ❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ♦♥❧②
t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ r❡❣❛r❞✐♥❣ ♦♥❡ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ❛ss❡t ❢r♦♠ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✭❡①✿ ❛ st♦ ❝ ❦✮✳
❖✉r ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❡①t❡♥❞❡❞ t♦ s✉♣♣ ♦rt ♠ ✉❧t✐♣❧❡ ❛ss❡ts ❛♥❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ s♦✉r❝❡s✳
❆ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②✬s st♦ ❝ ❦ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐s ❝♦♠♣✉t❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❛❝t✉❛❧✐s❡❞ ❢✉t✉r❡
❝❛s❤ ✢♦ ✇s t❤❛t ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ r❡❧❡❛s❡❞ t♦ st♦ ❝ ❦❤♦❧❞❡rs ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②✬s ❛ss❡ts ✭s❡❡
❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ✷✳✶ ✮✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤ ✢♦ ✇s ❛r❡ ❡st✐♠❛t❡❞✱ ❜ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ✉s✐♥❣ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ t❤❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❛s♣ ❡❝ts ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②✿
• ❊❝ ♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✿ ✇❤❛t ❞♦ ❡s t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ♣r♦ ❞✉❝❡✱ ❛t ✇❤❛t ❝♦sts ✭✜①❡❞
❛♥❞✴♦r ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡✮
• ▼❛r❦❡t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✿ ✇❤❛t ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②✬s
♣r♦ ❞✉❝ts
• ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✿ ❤♦ ✇ ✐s t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ✜♥❛♥❝❡❞✱ ✐s ✐t ✐♥ ❞❡❜t✱ ✇❤❛t ✐s t❤❡
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ✐t ✇✐❧❧ ❣♦ ❜❛♥❦r✉♣t ✐❢ s♦♠❡t❤✐♥❣ ✉♥❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥s
• ▼❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✿ ❤♦ ✇ ❞♦ ♠❛♥❛❣❡rs ✉s❡ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②✬s ❛ss❡ts❄ ❆r❡
t❤❡② ❞♦✐♥❣ t❤❡✐r ❜ ❡st t♦ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②✬s ♥❡t ♣r♦✜ts❄ ❆r❡ t❤❡② s❡❧❧✐♥❣
t❤❡✐r ♣r✐✈ ❛t❡ st♦ ❝ ❦s ✭✐♥s✐❞❡r tr❛❞✐♥❣✮❄
❑♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣❡ ♦❢ ❛❧❧ t❤❡s❡ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ✉s❡❞ t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❢✉t✉r❡
❝❛s❤ ✢♦ ✇s✳ ❚❤❡ s❤❡❡r ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ♥❡❝❡ss❛r② t♦ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ♦♥❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ✱
✐s ✐♠♣r❡ss✐✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ✐t ✐s ♥♦t ❡❛s② ❢♦r ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t♦ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❛♥❞ ❦ ❡❡♣ ✉♣ ✇✐t❤ ❛❧❧
t❤❡ r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥ t ❞❡t❛✐❧s ♥❡❡❞❡❞ ❢♦r ❝♦rr❡❝t ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ s♦♠❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs r❡❧② ♦♥
❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈ ❡ s♦✉r❝❡s ♦❢ ✬❤✐❣❤❡r✲❧❡✈ ❡❧✬ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❧✐❦ ❡✱ s❡❡ ✭ ❆❜r❡✉ ❛♥❞ ▼❡♥❞❡s ✱ ✷✵✶✶ ✮
♦r ✭ ❇❡❜ ❝③✉❦ ✱ ✷✵✵✸ ✮ ❢♦r r❡✈✐❡✇s✿
• ❆♥❛❧②st✬s r❡♣ ♦rts ❛♥❞ r❡❝♦♠♠❡♥❞❛t✐♦♥s
• ✸ ❡❡r ♦♣✐♥✐♦♥s
• ❚ ❡❝ ❤♥✐❝❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②sts✱❛s r❡♣ ♦rt❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ❇❛rr② ❛♥❞ ❏❡♥♥✐♥❣s ✱ ✶✾✾✷ ✮✱ ✇✐t❤ s♦❧✐❞ ✜♥❛♥✲
❝✐❛❧ ❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣❡✱ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ r❡❣✉❧❛r ❡st✐♠❛t❡s ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡s✬ st♦ ❝ ❦ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳ ❚❤❡✐r ❥♦❜ ✐s t♦

✸✳✶✳ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✸✺
❞✐❣❡st ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ t♦ ✇r✐t❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t r❡♣ ♦rts ❛♥❞ r❡❝♦♠♠❡♥❞❛✲
t✐♦♥s✳ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♦❢t❡♥ ✉s❡ t❤❡s❡ r❡❝♦♠♠❡♥❞❛t✐♦♥s t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ t❤❡✐r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s
❛♥❞ ✉♣ ❞❛t❡ t❤❡✐r ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦s✳ ❚❤❡ ❛❝❝✉r❛❝② ♦❢ ❛♥❛❧②st r❡❝♦♠♠❡♥❞❛t✐♦♥s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ♠✐s✲
❧❡❛❞✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ✐s ❛ ❝❛t❛❧②st ❢♦r t❤❡ ❞✐st♦rt✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ◆✉♠❡r♦✉s r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤
st✉❞✐❡s ❢♦ ❝✉s❡❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ s✉❝ ❤ r❡❝♦♠♠❡♥❞❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ t❤❡② s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞ t❤❛t
❛♥❛❧②st ♦♣✐♥✐♦♥s ❝❛♥ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s ❜❛❞ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✳ ❋ ♦r ❛
❣♦ ♦ ❞ r❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②sts✬ r❡❝♦♠♠❡♥❞❛t✐♦♥s ✇ ❡ s✉❣❣❡st❡❞
r❡❛❞✐♥❣ ✭ ❘❛♠♥❛t❤ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✻ ✮✳
❆s ❛♥ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈ ❡ t♦ ❛♥❛❧②st r❡❝♦♠♠❡♥❞❛t✐♦♥s✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✉s❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦✲
✈✐❞❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡✐r ♣ ❡❡rs✱ s❡❡ ✭ ❈❤❛♥❣ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✵ ✮✳ ș♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡ t❤✐s
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✬♠✐♠❡t✐❝✬✱ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐❣♥♦r❡s ♦t❤❡r s♦✉r❝❡s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛✲
t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❜❛s❡s ❤✐s ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ♦♥ t❤❡ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛♥♦t❤❡r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✳ ❙✉❝ ❤ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r
✐s ❥✉st✐✜❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ❢❛❝t t❤❛t s♦♠❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭❡①✿ ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ♠❛♥❛❣❡rs t❤❛t ❞✐s❝❧♦s❡ t❤❡✐r
r❡s✉❧ts✮ s❤♦ ✇ ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ t❧② ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♣ ❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡✳ șt s❡❡♠s ♥❛t✉r❛❧ t❤❛t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs s❡❡❦
t♦ ✐♠✐t❛t❡ t❤❡ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❝♦♥st❛♥ t ✇✐♥♥❡rs ✭❛♥❞ ❤♦♣ ❡ t♦ ❛❝ ❤✐❡✈ ❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ r❡s✉❧ts✮✳
❚❤✐s ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❝❛♥ ❧❡❛❞✱ ✐♥ ❡①tr❡♠✐s✱ t♦ ♣r✐❝❡s ✇❤✐❝ ❤ r❡✢❡❝t t❤❡ ♦♣✐♥✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ s✐♥✲
❣❧❡ ❣r♦✉♣ ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ❛r❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧s✳ ❚❤✐s ✇ ❛s t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ✷✵✵✶ ș❚ ❜✉❜❜❧❡✱ ✇❤❡♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ ❛♥❛✲
❧②sts ✇❤❡r❡ ❜✐❞❞✐♥❣ ✉♣ ♣r✐❝❡s ❢♦r t❡❝ ❤♥♦❧♦❣② st❛rt✲✉♣s ✇❤❡♥ t❤♦s❡ ❜✉s✐♥❡ss ❞✐❞ ♥♦t
r❡s♣ ❡❝t ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❜❛s✐❝ ❛❝❝♦✉♥ t✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❛✉❞✐t r❡q✉✐r❡♠❡♥ ts✳ ❙♦♠❡ ❛♥❛❧②sts ❛♥❞ ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♦rs ❞❡❢❡♥❞❡❞ t❤❡✐r ✈✐❡✇s ❜ ② q✉♦t✐♥❣ t❤❡♦r✐❡s ♦♥ ❤♦ ✇ t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ ✬♥❡✇✬ ❡✈ ❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥s
t❤❛t ❥✉st✐✜❡❞ t❤❡ ❤✐❣❤ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✬❞♦t✲❝♦♠✬ ❜✉❜❜❧❡✱ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
❞✐❞ ♥♦t ♠❛♥❛❣❡ t♦ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ✐♥ t❡❣r❛t❡ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♣r✐❝❡s✳ ș♥st❡❛❞✱❛s ❛♥❛❧②③❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ❙❤❛r♠❛ ✱ ✷✵✵✾ ✮✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❢♦ ❝✉s❡❞ ♦♥ ❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r
s♦✉r❝❡ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❣❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ s❤♦rt✲t❡r♠ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ❡✈ ❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ st♦ ❝ ❦s ❜✉t ❛
✇r♦♥❣ ❡✈ ❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❧♦♥❣✲t❡r♠ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳
❊✈ ❡♥ ✇❤❡♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ q✉❛❧✐t ② ✐s ❛❜✉♥❞❛♥ t✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ st✐❧❧ ✭❛♥❞ ❞♦✮ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡
t♦ ✐❣♥♦r❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜ ♦✉t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧s ❛♥❞ ❡♥❣❛❣❡ ✐♥ ✬t❡❝ ❤♥✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s✬✳ ✬❚ ❡❝ ❤✲
♥✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s✬✱ ❛s t❤♦r♦✉❣❤❧② ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ▲♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✵ ✮✱ ❝♦♥s✐sts ♦❢ ❛ s❡t ♦❢
♠❡t❤♦ ❞s t❤❛t ❤❡❧♣ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ ❛♥ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♣r✐❝❡
❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❤✐st♦r✐❝❛❧ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳
❚❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✐s t❤❛t ♣r✐❝❡s r❡✢❡❝t ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧②
❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ❛❧❧ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤ ✉s✱ ❧♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ❛t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧s ✐s ♥♦t ✉s❡✲
❢✉❧ ❢♦r ♠❛❦✐♥❣ ❡①❝❡ss ♣r♦✜ts✳ ❚ ❡❝ ❤♥✐❝❛❧ tr❛❞❡rs ❞♦ ♥♦t ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛r❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t
❛♥❞ t❤❡② ❢♦ ❝✉s ♦♥ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r✐♥❣ tr❡♥❞s ❛♥❞ ♣❛tt❡r♥s ✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❯s✐♥❣ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♠❡t❤✲
♦ ❞s t❤❡② tr② t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ ♣r♦✜ts ♦✉t ♦❢ r❡♣ ❡❛t✐♥❣ ♣❛tt❡r♥s✳ ș❢ ❛ ✬tr❡♥❞✬ ♦r ♣❛tt❡r♥ ✐s
❞❡t❡❝t❡❞ ❜ ② ❛ s✉✣❝✐❡♥ t ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ t❡❝ ❤♥✐❝✐❛♥s t❤❡♥✱ t❤r♦✉❣❤ s❤❛r✐♥❣ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
♦r ✐♥❞❡♣ ❡♥❞❡♥ t❧② ✱ t❤❡r❡ ✐s ❛ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ② t❤❛t t❤❡✐r ❝♦♠ ❜✐♥❡❞ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✇✐❧❧ ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② ❝r❡✲
❛t❡ ❛ tr❡♥❞ ✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ✲ r❡❛❧✐③✐♥❣ ✇❤❛t ✐s ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❛ ✬s❡❧❢✲❢✉❧✜❧❧✐♥❣ ♣r♦♣❤❡❝②✬✳ ✭ ❋ ❡r♥❛♥❞❡③
❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✾ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❏♦r❞❛♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✻ ✮ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ❛❝❝♦✉♥ ts ♦❢ s✉❝ ❤ ♣r♦♣❤❡❝✐❡s✳

✸✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✸✳ ❖❜ ❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞②
✸✳✷ ❆s②♠♠❡tr② ❛♥❞ q✉❛❧✐t② ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❋ r♦♠ t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s ❡①❛♠♣❧❡s ✇❡ s❛✇ t❤❛t ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❢❛❝❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❧❛r❣❡ ✈♦❧✉♠❡
♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ș❢ ✇❡ ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝❛♥✱ ♦♥ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡✱ ❡①tr❛❝t t❤❡ r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥t
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇❡ s❤♦✉❧❞ ❛❧s♦ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r t❤❡ ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t② t❤❛t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s
❧❛❝❦ ✐♥ q✉❛❧✐t② ♦r ♣r❡❝✐s✐♦♥✳
❖♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ t❤❡♦r✐❡s st❛♥❞✐♥❣ ❜❡❤✐♥❞ t❤❡ ✐❞❡❛ t❤❛t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧②
✐♥❢❡rr❡❞ ❢r♦♠ ❛ ✈ ❛r✐❡t② ♦❢ s♦✉r❝❡s ✐s t❤❡ ❝❡♥tr❛❧ ❧✐♠✐t t❤❡♦r② ✱ s❡❡ ✭ ❉✉❞❧❡② ✱ ✶✾✾✾ ✮ ❢♦r
❛♥ ❡①❤❛✉st✐✈❡ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝❡♥tr❛❧ ❧✐♠✐t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧s ❛♥❞ ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❚ ♦ s❡❡
❤♦✇ t❤✐s t❤❡♦r② ✇♦r❦s ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇❡ ♣r♦♣♦s❡ t❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✿ ș♠❛❣✐♥❡
❛ ❤✉♥❞r❡❞ ♣❡♦♣❧❡ t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ ❛ tr❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❥❛r ✜❧❧❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ❛♥ ✉♥❦♥♦✇♥ ♥✉♠❜❡r
♦❢ ♣❧❛st✐❝ ❜❛❧❧s✳ ❊❛❝❤ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✐s ❛s❦❡❞ t♦ ❧♦♦❦ ❛t t❤❡ ❥❛r ✭✇✐t❤♦✉t ♦♣❡♥✐♥❣ ✐t✮ ❛♥❞
❣✐✈❡ ❛♥ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❜❛❧❧s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ✐♥s✐❞❡✳
Estimations
N ballsN+e1
N+emCentral limit
N
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✸✳✷✿ ❊st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝♦rr❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❝❡♥tr❛❧ ❧✐♠✐t t❤❡♦r②
❚❤❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡rs ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❜❛❧❧s ✉s✐♥❣ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤❡s✿ ❝♦✉♥t✐♥❣✱
♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ✉s✐♥❣ ✈♦❧✉♠❡s✱ ❣✉❡ss❡s✱t❤✉♠❜ r✉❧❡s ♦r ♦t❤❡r ♠❡t❤♦❞s✳ ❚❤❡r❡✲
❢♦r❡ t❤❡s❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞✳ ❚❤❡ ✐❞❡❛ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝❡♥tr❛❧ ❧✐♠✐t t❤❡♦r②
✐s t❤❛t ✐❢ ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ ❛ s✉✣❝✐❡♥t ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t ❛♥❞ ✐❞❡♥t✐❝❛❧❧② ❞✐str✐❜✉t❡❞
❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s✱ ✐♠♣❧②✐♥❣ t❤❛t ♣❡♦♣❧❡ ❞♦ ♥♦t ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✐❞❡❛s✱ t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢
t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ♥♦r♠❛❧❧② ❞✐str✐❜✉t❡❞ ❛♥❞ ✐t✬s ♠❡❛♥ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ t❤❡ tr✉❡
♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❜❛❧❧s ✐♥ t❤❡ ❥❛r ✭◆✮✳ ș♥ ♦t❤❡r ✇♦r❞s✱ ❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ t❤❡ ❝❡♥tr❛❧ ❧✐♠✐t t❤❡♦r② ✱
✇❡ ❡①♣❡❝t t♦ ❤❛✈❡ ❛ s✐♠✐❧❛r ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ♣❡♦♣❧❡ t❤❛t ✇✐❧❧ ✉♥❞❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡ ◆ ❛s ♣❡♦♣❧❡ t❤❛t
♦✈❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡ ◆✳ ▼♦r❡♦✈❡r✱ ❢♦r t❤✐s t❤❡♦r② t♦ ❤♦❧❞✱ ✐t ✐s ❝r✉❝✐❛❧ t❤❛t ❡❛❝❤ ❡✈ ❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥ ✐s
✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t✳ ș♥ ❆♣♣❡♥❞✐① ❆✳✷ ✇❡ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡ ❛ ♣r♦❣r❛♠♠✐♥❣ ❝♦❞❡ t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ♣r♦✈❡ t❤❡
❛❜♦✈❡ ❢❛❝ts✳
❲ ❡ ❦♥♦✇ t❤❛t ❞✉❡ t♦ ♠✐♠❡t✐❝ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r✱ s❡❡ ✭ ❈✐♣r✐❛♥✐ ❛♥❞ ●✉❛r✐♥♦ ✱ ✷✵✵✾ ✮✱

✸✳✷✳ ❆s②♠♠❡tr② ❛♥❞ q✉❛❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✸✼
✭ ❈❤❛♥❣ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✵ ✮ ❢♦r ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡ r❡✈✐❡✇s✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦♥✬t ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ♠❛❦ ❡ ✐♥❞❡♣ ❡♥✲
❞❡♥ t ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t ❛ss❡t ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s✳ ❋ ♦r t❤✐s r❡❛s♦♥✱ t❤❡ ❜❛s✐❝ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s
❢♦r t❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✐❞✐t ② ♦❢ ❝❡♥ tr❛❧ ❧✐♠✐t t❤❡♦r② ❛r❡ ♥♦t ♠❡❡t ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝
st✉❞✐❡s✱ ❛s r❡♣ ♦rt❡❞ ✐♥ ✭ ❑✐r♠❛♥ ✱ ✶✾✾✷ ✮✱ ✉s✉❛❧❧② ✉s❡ t❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t ♦❢ ❛ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❛✲
t✐✈ ❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧✳ ❚❤❡ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛st ❞♦✉❜t ♦♥ s✉❝ ❤ s✐♠♣❧✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ r❡❛❧
s②st❡♠s✳
❚❤❡ ♠✐♠❡t✐❝ ❛♥❞ ❛s②♠♠❡tr✐❝❛❧ ❜✐❛s✐♥❣ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦r ✐ts ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ✐s
✉❜✐q✉✐t♦✉s ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s②st❡♠s✳ ❚❤✐s ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✐s ❢♦✉♥❞ ✇✐t❤ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ♠❛♥❛❣❡rs ❛s
✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②sts✳ ❈♦♠♣❛♥ ② ♠❛♥❛❣❡rs✱ ❛s r❡♣ ♦rt❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ❑②❧❡ ✱ ✶✾✽✺ ✮ ♦r ✭ ❇r❛♥✲
❞♦✉② ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✵ ✮✱ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ✐♥❝❡♥ t✐✈ ❡s t♦ ❛❜✉s❡ ✐♥s✐❞❡r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦r ❞❡❢♦r♠ ✜♥❛♥✲
❝✐❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❛❝❝♦✉♥ t✐♥❣ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss ❦♥♦ ✇♥ ❛s ✧✇✐♥❞♦ ✇✲❞r❡ss✐♥❣✧✱
❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ♠❛♥❛❣❡rs ❝❛♥ r❡♣ ♦rt ✐♥✢❛t❡❞ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡rs ❝♦♥❝❡r♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣ ❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞
✇ ❡❧❧✲❜ ❡✐♥❣ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡s✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ♣r❛❝t✐❝❡s✱ ❛❧s♦ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✧❝r❡❛t✐✈ ❡✧ ❛❝❝♦✉♥ t✐♥❣✱
❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❧❡❞ t♦ ♠✐s♣r✐❝❡❞ st♦ ❝ ❦s ❛♥❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧❧② ❡♥❛❜❧❡❞ t❤❡ r✐s❡ ❛♥❞ ❢❛❧❧ ♦❢ ♥ ✉♠❡r♦✉s
❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡s ❧✐❦ ❡ ❊◆❘ ❖◆✶✱ ▲❡❤♠❛♥ ❇r♦t❤❡rs ♦r ❲ ♦r❧❞❈♦♠✳ ❆ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ r❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ s✉❝ ❤
♦ ❝❝✉rr❡♥❝❡s✱ ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s t❤❡✐r ❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❝♦♥ t❡①t✱ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ r❡❛❞ ✐♥ ✭ ❆♠❛t ❛♥❞ ●♦ ✇t❤♦r♣ ❡ ✱
✷✵✵✹ ✮ ♦r ✭ ❇❡❛ttr✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ ●r♦s❛♥ ✉ ✱ ✷✵✶✶ ✮✳
❲ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t♦ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r t❤❛t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥✱ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ♠❡❛s✉r❡✱ t❤❡
q✉❛❧✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡② r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r t❤❡② ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❢❛❝t t❤❛t t❤❡r❡
✐s ❛♥ ❛s②♠♠❡tr② ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛♥❞
♠❛♥❛❣❡rs✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ t❤❡ ✭♣ ❡r❝❡✐✈ ❡❞✮ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ q✉❛❧✐t ② ❛♥❞ ❛s②♠♠❡tr②
❝❛♥ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t ✐♥ t❤❡♠s❡❧✈ ❡s s♦✉r❝❡s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳
EstimationsF+e1
F+emPriceCompany
fundamental
value
F
Non-fundamental
estimations G1…kMarket price
formation
Financial information
and analyst interpretationsInvestor interpretations and actions
Fundamental F
Mesures of information
quality
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✸✳✸✿ ❚ r❛♥s❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t♦ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s
❆s ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✸✳✸ ✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❢❛❝❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ♠ ✉❧t✐♣❧❡ s♦✉r❝❡s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t
✶❘❡❛❞ ✭ ❇❛rr❡✈ ❡❧❞ ✱ ✷✵✵✷ ✮ ❢♦r ❞❡t❛✐❧❡❞ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥s ❛❜♦✉t t❤❡ ❝r❡❛t✐✈❡ ❛❝❝♦✉♥ t✐♥❣ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s ✉s❡❞
✐♥ t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ♦❢ ❊◆❘❖◆

✸✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✸✳ ❖❜ ❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞②
❝❛♥ s❤❛♣ ❡ t❤❡✐r ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s✳ șt ✐s ❡❛s② t♦ ✐♠❛❣✐♥❡ ❛ s❝❡♥❛r✐♦ ✇ ❡r❡ ❛ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ❝❛♥ ❛r✐s❡
❞✉❡ t♦ ♣ ♦ ♦r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚ ♦ ❛ ✈ ♦✐❞ s✉❝ ❤ ✇r♦♥❣ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥s✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✉s✉❛❧❧②
❛tt❛❝ ❤ ❛ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ♦❢ r✐s❦ t♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ st♦ ❝ ❦✳ ❚❤✐s ♣ ❡r❝❡✐✈ ❡❞ r✐s❦ ❤❛s ❛
♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t♦r② ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts✿
• ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝ ♦♠♣ ❛♥②
• q✉❛❧✐t② ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
• q✉❛❧✐t② ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡t
❇② ❡st✐♠❛t✐♥❣ r✐s❦ ❢❛❝t♦rs✱ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝❛♥ ❝♦♠♣ ❡♥s❛t❡ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❧❛❝ ❦ ✐♥ t❤❡ q✉❛❧✐t ②
♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ▲✐❦ ❡ ✇✐t❤ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ r✐s❦✲r❡❧❛t❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦
❜ ❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❧❛❝ ❦✐♥❣ ✐♥ q✉❛❧✐t ② ✳
❚❤❡ s✉❜♣r✐♠❡ ❝r✐s✐s ✐s ❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ♦❢ ❛ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠ t❤❛t ❛r✐s❡s ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❧❛❝ ❦
♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜ ♦✉t r✐s❦ ❢❛❝t♦rs✱ s❡❡ ✭ ▲❛♥❞✐❡r ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✶ ✮✱ ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s t❤❡ ❞♦t✲
❝♦♠ ❜✉❜❜❧❡✷✐s ❛♥ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ❢♦r ❜❛❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤✲✢♦ ✇s✳ ș♥
t❤❡ ✜rst ❝❛s❡✱ ♥❡✇ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥♥♦ ✈ ❛t✐♦♥ ♣ ❡r♠✐tt❡❞ t❤❡ ❝r❡❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠♦rt❣❛❣❡✲❜❛❝ ❦ ❡❞
❛ss❡ts t❤❛t ✇ ❡r❡ s♦ ♦♣❛q✉❡ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣❧✐❝❛t❡❞ t❤❛t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t ♠❛❦ ❡ ❣♦ ♦ ❞
❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡✐r r❡s♣ ❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳ ❨ ❡t✱ ❡✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ t❤❡s❡ ❛ss❡ts
✇ ♦✉❧❞ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ♣r✐❝❡ ✐t ✐s ✈ ❡r② ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ❤❛ ✈ ❡
♠✐ss❡❞ ❛♥ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t r✐s❦ ❢❛❝t♦r✿ t❤❡ s②st❡♠✐❝ r✐s❦✳ ❚❤❡ ❝♦❧❧❛♣s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▲❡❤♠❛♥
❇r♦t❤❡rs ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❜❛♥❦ ❛✛❡❝t❡❞ ♥♦t ♦♥❧② t❤❡ ♠♦rt❣❛❣❡✲❜❛❝ ❦ ❡❞ s❡❝✉r✐t✐❡s ♠❛r❦ ❡t
❜✉t t❤❡ ❡♥ t✐r❡ ❆♠❡r✐❝❛♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s②st❡♠✳ ❙♦ ♦♥ ❛❢t❡r✱ ❛ ❝ ❤❛✐♥ ♦❢ ❡✈ ❡♥ ts ✉♥❢♦❧❞❡❞ ❛♥❞
r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs ❛♥❞ r❡❣✉❧❛t♦rs ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❢♦r ♠♦r❡ tr❛♥s♣❛r❡♥❝② ♦♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥st✐t✉t✐♦♥s ❛s
✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s ❢♦r ♠♦r❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝♦❧❧❡❝t✐♦♥ ✐♥ r❡❣❛r❞s t♦ ✬s②st❡♠✐❝ r✐s❦✬✳
❙②st❡♠✐❝ r✐s❦ r❡❢❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ❝♦❧❧❛♣s❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❡♥ t✐r❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s②st❡♠
♦r ♦❢ ❛♥ ❡♥ t✐r❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ șt s❤♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t ❜ ❡ ❝♦♥❢✉s❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ✇ ❡❧❧✲❦♥♦ ✇♥ r✐s❦ ❝❛❧❧❡❞
✬s②st❡♠❛t✐❝ r✐s❦✬ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐s ♥♦t ❞✐✈ ❡rs✐✜❛❜❧❡ ❛♥❞ r❡❢❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ✈✉❧♥❡r❛❜✐❧✐t ② t♦ ❡✈ ❡♥ ts
t❤❛t ❛✛❡❝t ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ♦✉t❝♦♠❡s ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳
❲ ❡ s❛ ✇ ❤♦ ✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜ ♦✉t ❛ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ❛ss❡t ❝♦♠❡s ✐♥ ❤✐❣❤ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡s ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡
✇r♦♥❣❧② ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❡❞✳ ❚❤❡ ♥❡①t ♣❤❛s❡✱ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss ♦❢ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
✐♥ t♦ ♣r✐❝❡s✱ ✐s r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✬ ✐♥t❡r♣r ❡t❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✳
✸✳✸ ș♥✈❡st♦rs
ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡ ✇✐t❤ s❛ ✈✐♥❣s ✭♦r ♠❛♥❛❣✐♥❣ t❤❡ s❛ ✈✐♥❣s ♦❢ ♦t❤❡rs✮ ✇❤♦ ❛r❡ ❧♦ ♦❦✲
✐♥❣ ❢♦r ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t✐❡s t♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st t❤❡✐r ❝❛♣✐t❛❧✳ ❚❤❡② ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛❝❝❡ss t♦ ❛ ✇✐❞❡ r❛♥❣❡ ♦❢
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ s♦✉r❝❡s ❛♥❞ ❜ ② ❝♦♠♣✐❧✐♥❣ t❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡② ♠❛❦ ❡ t❤❡✐r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t
✷❙❡❡ ✭ ❖❢❡❦ ❛♥❞ ❘✐❝ ❤❛r❞s♦♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✶ ✮ ❢♦r ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ r✐s❡ ❛♥❞ ❢❛❧❧ ♦❢ ș♥ t❡r♥❡t st♦ ❝ ❦
♣r✐❝❡s

✸✳✹✳ ❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ✸✾
❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤❡ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss ♦❢ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t♦ ❛♥ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤
r❡✢❡❝ts t❤❡ ❛ttr❛❝t✐✈ ❡♥❡ss ♦❢ ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❛ss❡t✱ ✐s ❞✐✣❝✉❧t ❛♥❞ ♣❛rt✐❛❧❧② s✉❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳
❈❧❛ss✐❝ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ t❤❡♦r✐❡s ♦❢t❡♥ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❤❛r❞ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t ❤♦ ✇
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t ❛♥❞ ✉s❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❯♥ t✐❧ r❡❝❡♥ t❧② ✱ t❤❡s❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡❞
t❤❛t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ❛♥❞ r❡❛❝t ♦♥❧② t♦ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
✭♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ t❤❡② ❞♦♥✬t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ♥♦t ♣ ❡rs✉❛❞❡❞ ❜ ② r✉♠♦rs✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❢♦✉♥❞✐♥❣
st✉❞✐❡s ♦❢ ✭ ❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❚ ✈ ❡rs❦② ✱ ✶✾✼✾ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✶✾✽✶ ✮s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞ t❤❛t
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞✐s♣❧❛ ② ❛ s❡t ♦❢ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s t❤❛t ❛✛❡❝t ❜ ♦t❤ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡②
♣ ❡r❝❡✐✈ ❡ ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s t❤❡✐r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❛❝t✐♦♥s✳ ◆❡①t ✇ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡ t❤❡ ♠♦st ❝♦♠♠♦♥
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s t❤❛t ❛✛❡❝t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳
✸✳✹ ❇❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s
❆ ❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t❤❡♦r② ✱ ❛❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✱ r✐s❦✲
❛ ✈ ❡rs❡✱ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠❡ ✉♣ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛✲
t✐♦♥s✳ șt ✐s ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ t❤❛t s✉❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❡①✐st ❜✉t ✐t ✐s ♥♦t ❧✐❦ ❡❧② t❤❛t ❛❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡s❡ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s✳ ❚ ♦ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ✬♥♦♥✲r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✬ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈ ❡ ♣s②❝ ❤♦❧♦❣✐sts
❤❛ ✈ ❡ ✇ ♦r❦ ❡❞ t♦ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❤♦ ✇ ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡ ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❲ ❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧✐♥❡
t❤❡ ✐❞❡❛ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇✐♥❣ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈ ❡ tr❛✐ts ❛r❡ ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ❛s ❜✐❛s❡s ✐♥ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡
t♦ ❛ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧❧② ❝♦rr❡❝t r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✳ ❘❡❝❡♥ t st✉❞✐❡s✱ s❡❡ ✭ ❉✉♣r❡ ❉✳✱
●✐r❡r❞✲● ♦t✐♥ ș✳ ❛♥❞ ● ✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✻ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❙✳ ❛♥❞ ● ✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✾ ✮✱ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞ t❤❛t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥
✉s❡ ♥♦♥✲❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❜❛s❡❞ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s✱ ❧✐❦ ❡ ❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ♦r s♦ ❝✐❛❧✲r❡s♣ ♦♥s✐❜❧❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s✱ t♦ ❛❞✲
❥✉st t❤❡✐r ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦s✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥♥♦t ❛tt❛❝ ❤ ❛ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r ♦❢ ✬✇r♦♥❣✬ ♦r ✬r✐❣❤ t✬ t♦
s✉❝ ❤ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ q✉❛❧✐t✐❡s✳ ❆❧♦♥❣s✐❞❡ t❤❡ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ❜✐❛s ✇ ❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡✐r
♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ ✐♠♣❛❝ts ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳
❚❤❡ ❝ ♦ ❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❞✐ss♦♥❛♥❝ ❡ ❜✐❛s ✐s r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❛t✐✈ ❡ ❢♦r ❛ ♣ ❡rs♦♥ t❤❛t ✐❣♥♦r❡s ✐♥✲
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐s ❝♦♥ tr❛❞✐❝t♦r② t♦ ❤✐s ❝✉rr❡♥ t ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s✳ ș♠❛❣✐♥❡ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t❤❛t ❤❛s
❜ ♦✉❣❤ t ❛ st♦ ❝ ❦ ❛♥❞ ❢♦r♠❡❞ t❤❡ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢ t❤❛t t❤❡ st♦ ❝ ❦✬s ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✇✐❧❧ r✐s❡ ✭✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✇ ♦✉❧❞
❣✐✈ ❡ ❤✐♠ ❛ ♣r♦✜t✮✳ ❍❛ ✈✐♥❣ ❛ ✬❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈ ❡ ❞✐ss♦♥❛♥❝❡✬ ❜✐❛s t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝❛♥ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s
✐❣♥♦r❡ r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥ t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡s t❤❡ ❝♦♥ tr❛r② t♦ ❤✐s ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s✳ ❙✉❝ ❤ ❛ ❜✐❛s
❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✱ ✇❤❡r❡ ❡✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ ❛❜✉♥❞❛♥ t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❡①✐sts ❛❜ ♦✉t ♣r✐❝❡s ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ♦ ✈ ❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs st✐❧❧ ✐❣♥♦r❡ t❤❡♠ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣
❛t ❤✐❣❤ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❆♥♦t❤❡r ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤✐s ❜✐❛s ✐s s❡❡♥ ✇❤❡♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❡♥❞ t♦ ❤♦❧❞
♦♥ ❢♦r t♦ ♦ ♠ ✉❝ ❤ t✐♠❡ t♦ ❧♦s✐♥❣ st♦ ❝ ❦s ♦r ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡② ❞♦ ♥♦t ❝❛s❤ ✐♥ ✐♥ ♦♥ ✇✐♥♥✐♥❣
st♦ ❝ ❦s✳
❆♥♦t❤❡r ❢❛♠♦✉s ❛♥❞ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❜✐❛s ✐s ❝❛❧❧❡❞ t❤❡ ❤✐♥❞s✐❣❤t ❜✐❛s ✳ ❚❤✐s ❜✐❛s
❛✛❡❝ts ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❛t ❛❧t❡r t❤❡✐r ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s ✐♥ ❢❛❝❡ ♦❢ ♥❡✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤✐s ✐♠♣❧✐❡s
t❤❛t ♥❡✇ ❛♥❞ r❡✈ ❡❛❧✐♥❣ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ ❞r✐✈ ❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t♦ ✐♥st❛♥ t❧② ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ t❤❡✐r
❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s ❛♥❞ ❢♦r❣❡t t❤❡✐r ♦❧❞❡r ♣ ❡rs♣ ❡❝t✐✈ ❡s✳ ❆ tr✐✈✐❛❧ ✇ ❛ ② ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❡①❤✐❜✐t
s✉❝ ❤ ❛ ❜✐❛s ✐s ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡② s❛ ②✿ ✧ ș ❦♥❡✇ ✐t ❛❧❧ ❛❧♦♥❣ t❤❛t ❛ ❝r❛s❤ ✇ ❛s ❞✉❡✧ ✭❡✈ ❡♥
t❤♦✉❣❤ t❤❡② ❞✐❞♥✬t ❡①✐t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜ ❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡ ❝r❛s❤✮✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛

✹✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✸✳ ❖❜ ❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞②
t❡♥❞❡♥❝② t♦ ✈✐❡✇ t❤❡ r❡❛❧✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ r✐s❦② ❡✈ ❡♥ ts ❛s ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ✬❛❧r❡❛❞② ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞✬ t❤❡② t❡♥❞
❜ ❡❝♦♠❡ ♦ ✈ ❡r❝♦♥✜❞❡♥ t ✇✐t❤ t❤❡✐r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t str❛t❡❣② ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡✐r ❛❜✐❧✐t ②
t♦ ♣r❡❞✐❝t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❆s ♠❡♥ t✐♦♥❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ❙❤✐❧❧❡r ✱ ✶✾✽✵ ✮ ✧❤✐♥❞s✐❣❤ t ❜✐❛s ❡♥❝♦✉r❛❣❡s ❛
✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❧❞ ❛s ♠♦r❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❛❜❧❡ t❤❛♥ ✐t r❡❛❧❧② ✐s✧✱ ❊✈ ❡♥ ✐♥ ❢❛❝❡ ♦❢ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t
❧♦ss❡s✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥✱ ❞✉❡ t♦ ❤✐♥❞s✐❣❤ t✱ ✜♥❞ ✇ ❛ ②s t♦ ❞❡❢❡♥❞ t❤❡✐r str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❛♥❞
❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ❜ ❡ r✐❣❤ t ✭♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ t❤❡② ♥❡❡❞ t♦ r❡st
♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✮ ✐t ✐s ♣❧❛✉s✐❜❧❡ t♦ s❛ ② t❤❛t s♦♠❡ ✇✐❧❧ ♣ ❡rs✐st ✐♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❡✈ ❡♥ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡②
s✉✛❡r ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❧♦ss❡s✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ❝♦♥ t❡①t✱ ✐t ✐s ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ t❤❛t ✐♥❝♦rr❡❝t str❛t❡❣✐❡s ♦r
♣r✐❝❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❝❛♥ ♣ ❡rs✐st✱ ❢♦r ❧♦♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s✱ ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳
❈❧♦s❡❧② r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ t❤❡ ❤✐♥❞s✐❣❤ t ❜✐❛s✱ ❛✈❛✐❧❛❜✐❧✐t② ❜✐❛s ✐s ❛❧s♦ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❚❤❡ ✬❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜✐❧✐t ② ❜✐❛s✬ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❡♥❞ t♦ ♦ ✈ ❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡
t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ❛♥ ❡✈ ❡♥ t ✇❤❡♥ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡s ♦❢ r❡❛❧✐③❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡✈ ❡♥ t ❛r❡ ♣r❡s❡♥ t❧②
❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡✳ ❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ✇❤❡♥ s❡❡✐♥❣ ❛ r✐s❡ ✐♥ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r ❛ ❢❡✇ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ❛♥❞ ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♦r ❝❛♥ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❥✉❞❣♠❡♥ t ❛♥❞ ❞r❛ ✇ t❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ t❤❛t ♣r✐❝❡s ✇✐❧❧ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡
t♦ ❣r♦ ✇✳ ș❢ ♣r✐♦r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ ❛ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♣✐❝t✉r❡ ✭♥♦t s✉♣♣ ♦rt✐♥❣ ❣r♦ ✇t❤✮
t❤❛♥ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝❛♥ st✐❧❧ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ❤✐s ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s ✭✐♥ ❢❛ ✈ ♦r ❛ r❛✐s✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡ tr❡♥❞✮ ✐❢ ❤❡ ✐s ❛❧s♦
❛✛❡❝t ❜ ② t❤❡ ✬❤✐♥❞s✐❣❤ t✬ ❜✐❛s ✭✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✇✐❧❧ ❞✐st♦rt ❤✐s r❡❝♦❧❧❡❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♦❧❞❡r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
t❤❛t ♥❡❣❛t❡s t❤❡ ♥❡✇ r❛✐s✐♥❣ tr❡♥❞ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢ ✮✳ ș♥ ❛ ♠♦r❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ ❝♦♥ t❡①t✱ t❤❡ ✬❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜✐❧✲
✐t ②✬ ❜✐❛s ✐s ♦❢t❡♥ tr✐❣❣❡r❡❞ ❜ ② ♥❡✇s ❜✉❧❧❡t✐♥s t❤❛t ❢♦ ❝✉s ♦♥ ❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ ❡✈ ❡♥ t
✭❡①✿ s❤❛r❦ ❛tt❛❝ ❦s✱ ❝❛r ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥ ts✱ ❡t❝✳✮✳ ș❢ ❛ ♥❡✇s ❜✉❧❧❡t✐♥s ✐s r❡♣ ❡❛t❡❞ ❛ ❢❡✇ t✐♠❡s✱
❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛❜❧❡ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇ ❡rs ✇✐❧❧ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ♦ ❝❝✉rr❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡
❡✈ ❡♥ ts ❞✐s♣❧❛ ② ❡❞ ✭♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ❣❡tt✐♥❣ ❛tt❛❝ ❦ ❡❞ ❜ ② ❛ s❤❛r❦✮ ❛s ♠ ✉❝ ❤ ❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❛♥ ✐t
❛❝t✉❛❧❧② ✐s ✐♥ r❡❛❧✐t ② ✳ ❚❤ ✉s t❤❡ ✬❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜✐❧✐t ②✬ ♦❢ ❛ ❢❡✇ r❡♣ ❡❛t❡❞ r❡❛❧✐s❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❛♥ ❡✈ ❡♥ t
✇✐❧❧ ❞✐st♦rt ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡✬s ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❧✐❦ ❡❧✐❤♦ ♦ ❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡✈ ❡♥ t✳ ❚❤❡ ✬❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜✐❧✐t ②✬ ❛♥❞
t❤❡ ✬❤✐♥❞s✐❣❤ t✬ ❜✐❛s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ ✐♥ ✭ ❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✶✾✽✶ ✮✳
ș♥ ♦♣♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s ❜✐❛s✱ s♦♠❡ ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡ t❡♥❞ t♦ ❡①❤✐❜✐t ❛♥ ♦✈❡r✲
❝ ♦♥✜❞❡♥❝ ❡ ❜✐❛s✱ ♦r ❝ ♦♥s❡r✈❛t✐s♠ ❜✐❛s ❛s ✜rst ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ❊❞✇ ❛r❞s ✱ ✶✾✻✽ ✮✳ ❇❡✲
❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤✐s ❜✐❛s✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❡♥❞ t♦ ✉♥❞❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ✇ ❡✐❣❤ t ♦❢ ♥❡✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❛♥❞ ♦ ✈ ❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ♦❧❞❡r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ❤❡ ❢❛♠♦✉s st✉❞②
❛❜ ♦✉t ❝❛r ❞r✐✈ ❡rs✱✭ ❙✈ ❡♥s♦♥ ✱ ✶✾✽✶ ✮✱ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs ❛s❦ ❡❞ ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡ t♦ r❛t❡ t❤❡✐r ❞r✐✈✐♥❣
s❦✐❧❧s r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❞r✐✈ ❡r✳ ❚❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts✱ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧❧② ✐♠♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡✱ s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞
t❤❛t ❛ ❤✐❣❤ ♠❛ ❥♦r✐t ② ♦❢ ❞r✐✈ ❡rs ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ t❤❡♠s❡❧✈ ❡s ❛s ❤❛ ✈✐♥❣ ✬❛❜ ♦✉t✲❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡✬
❞r✐✈✐♥❣ s❦✐❧❧s✳
❚❤❡ r ❡♣r ❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈❡♥❡ss ❜✐❛s ❛✛❡❝ts ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐♦♥ ❜ ② ❛❧❧♦ ✇✐♥❣ ❢♦r ♦ ✈ ❡r✈ ❛❧✲
✉❡❞ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ❛♥ ❡✈ ❡♥ t ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ❡✈ ❡♥ ts t❤❛t ❤❛ ✈ ❡
s✐♠✐❧❛r ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❡✈ ❡♥ t ✇ ❡ ❛r❡ ❧♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ❢♦r✳ ❙✉❝ ❤ ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥
✇✐❧❧ tr✐❝ ❦ ✉s ✐♥ t♦ ♠❛❦✐♥❣ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✐s❛t✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ♦❢ ❛♥ ❡♥ t✐r❡
♣ ♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ♦❢ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ s❛♠♣❧❡✳ ș❢ ✇ ❡ ♣r♦♠♣t ❛ ♣ ❡rs♦♥ t♦
❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ❛ ✬s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧✬ ❝♦✐♥ ❢❛❧❧✐♥❣ ♦♥ ✐ts ❢❛❝❡ ✭✶✮ ♠♦st ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ♣r♦❜✲
❛❜❧② ❛♥s✇ ❡r ✺✵✪✳ ș♥ ❝♦♥ tr❛st✱ ✐❢ ✇ ❡ s❤♦ ✇ ❛ r❡❛❧✐s❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ s❡r✐❡s ♦❢ t♦ss❡s✱ ❧✐❦ ❡
✶✶✵✶✵✶✶✱ ♠♦st ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡ ✇✐❧❧ ✇r♦♥❣❧② ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦✐♥ s❤♦ ✇✐♥❣
✶ ✐s ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ✺✵✪✳ ❚❤❡ s❡q✉❡♥❝❡ ✶✶✵✶✵✶✶✱ ♦❢ r❡❛❧✐s❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❛ ❝♦✐♥ t♦ss✱ ❤❛s t❤❡

✸✳✺✳ Pr✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✹✶
s❛♠❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ❛♣♣ ❡❛r✐♥❣ ❛s ❞♦ ❡s t❤❡ s❡q✉❡♥❝❡ ✶✶✶✶✶✶✶ ✭♦r ❛❧❧ ③❡r♦s✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡s❡
s❛♠♣❧❡s ❝♦♠❡ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ t♦ss ♦❢ ❛ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡❞ ❝♦✐♥✳ ș♥ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱
s✉❝ ❤ ❛ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈ ❡ ❜✐❛s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ r❡s♣ ♦♥s✐❜❧❡ ❢♦r tr❡♥❞ ❝r❡❛t✐♦♥✿ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇❤♦ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ❛
❝❧♦s❡ s❡q✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ r❡t✉r♥s ❝❛♥ ✐♥❢❡r t❤❛t ✐t ✐s ♠♦r❡ ❧✐❦ ❡❧② t❤❛t ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡✱ r❛t❤❡r
t❤❛♥ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈ ❡✱ r❡t✉r♥s ✇✐❧❧ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇✳ ș♥ ❛ ❧❛r❣❡ t✐♠❡✲❢r❛♠❡✱ t❤✐s ❡q✉❛t❡s t♦ t❤❡ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢
t❤❛t ✷✱✸ ❝♦♥s❡❝✉t✐✈ ❡ ② ❡❛rs ✇✐t❤ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ r❡t✉r♥s ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t t❤❡ ♥❡①t ② ❡❛r✬s r❡t✉r♥s
❛r❡ ♠♦r❡ ❧✐❦ ❡❧② t♦ ❜ ❡ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ t❤❛♥ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈ ❡ ✭❢❛❝t t❤❛t ✐s st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧❧② ✐♥❝♦rr❡❝t✮✳ ș♥
✭ ●r✐✣♥ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✶✾✾✸ ✮✱ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ t ✇ ♦ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ❢♦r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✿ ❢♦r❝❡
✭✐♥ t❡♥s✐t ② ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✇ ❛t❝ ❤❡❞ ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡✮ ❛♥❞ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ✇ ❡✐❣❤ t ✭♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢
s✉❝ ❤ ❡✈ ❡♥ t ♦ ❝❝✉rr✐♥❣✮✳ ❚❤❡② ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❛t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❤✐❣❤ ❢♦r❝❡ ✐s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞
❛s ♣ ❡rt✐♥❡♥ t ❡✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ ✐ts st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ✇ ❡✐❣❤ t ✐s ✐♥s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥ t✳
❚❤❡ ✜✈ ❡ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡s ♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ ❝❛♥✱ ✐♥ ✐s♦❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦r ❝♦♠ ❜✐♥❡❞✱ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♠ ✉❧t✐♣❧❡
❡✛❡❝ts ♦♥ t❤❡ ✇ ❛ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♣ ❡r❝❡✐✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t t ②♣ ❡s✳
❇❡s✐❞❡s ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❞✐✈ ❡r❣❡ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ✬r❛✲
t✐♦♥❛❧❧② ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✬ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡
❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤✳
❆❢t❡r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❡❞ t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡② s❡♥❞ t❤❡✐r ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ♦r❞❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡ ❣❛t❤❡r❡❞ ❛♥❞ ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝❡❞ ✐♥ ❛
♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ t❤❛t ❝r❡❛t❡s t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❲❤✐❧❡ t❤✐s ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✐s
❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ❞❡❞✉❝t✐✈ ❡ ✭✉♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❛♥❞ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❛❜❧❡✮ s♦♠❡ ♦❢ ✐ts ✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥s ❝❛♥ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♣r♦✲
♣r✐❡t✐❡s t❤❛t ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ t❤❡ q✉❛❧✐t ② ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ✇ ❛ ②s t❤r♦✉❣❤ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
❜ ❡❝♦♠❡ ♠♦r❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✇ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s
❢♦r t❤❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳
✸✳✺ Pr✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠
❆❢t❡r r❡❝❡✐✈✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t✐♥❣ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs s❡♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥
r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡✐r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ♦r❞❡rs ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡❞ ✐♥ t ✇ ♦ ♠❛✐♥
❝❛t❡❣♦r✐❡s✿
• ▼❛r❦❡t ♦r ❞❡rs ✿ ♦r❞❡rs t❤❛t s♣ ❡❝✐❢② t❤❡ ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥ ✭❜✉②✴s❡❧❧✮ ❛♥❞
t❤❡ ❛♠♦✉♥ t ♦❢ ♠♦♥❡②✴st♦ ❝ ❦s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ✐♥ ✈ ♦❧✈ ❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ tr❛❞❡✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ♦r❞❡rs ✇✐❧❧
❜ ❡ ❡①❡❝✉t❡❞✱ ✐❢ ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡✱ ❛t t❤❡ ❜ ❡st ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✳ ▼❛r❦ ❡t ♦r❞❡rs
✉s✉❛❧❧② ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r ♣r✐♦r✐t ② t❤❛♥ ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡rs✳
• ▲✐♠✐t ♦r ❞❡rs ✿ ♦r❞❡rs t❤❛t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ❛s ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦r❞❡r ✇✐t❤
❡①tr❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠✴♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠ ♣r✐❝❡ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐s ✇✐❧❧✲
✐♥❣ t♦ ❛❝❝❡♣t ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ❜✉②✴s❡❧❧ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❚❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ s❡✈ ❡r❛❧ ✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❧✐♠✐t
♦r❞❡rs ✭❡①✿ ❛❧❧✲♦r✲❝❛♥❝❡❧✱ st♦♣✲❧♦ss❡s✱ t✐♠❡✲❧✐♠✐ts✮ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❤❡❧♣ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❛❦ ❡
✈ ❡r② s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳
❚❤❡s❡ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡ r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡❞ ❛♥❞ ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝❡❞ ✐♥ t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✬s ❡①❡❝✉t✐♦♥ s②st❡♠✳
❚❤✐s s②st❡♠ ❝♦♥s✐sts ♦❢ ❛ s❡t ♦❢ ♣r♦ ❝❡❞✉r❡s t❤❛t ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ♠❛t❝ ❤

✹✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✸✳ ❖❜ ❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞②
♦r❞❡rs ♦❢ ❜✉② ❡rs ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧❡rs✳ ❉❡♣ ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ t❤❡ ❡①❡❝✉t✐♦♥ s②st❡♠ ❤❛s
❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ s❡ss✐♦♥s✿ ❝❛❧❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s❡ss✐♦♥s ♦r ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉♦✉s s❡ss✐♦♥s✳
❲✐t❤ ❝ ❛❧ ❧ ♠❛r❦❡t s❡ss✐♦♥s tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♦ ❝❝✉rs ❛t ✇ ❡❧❧✲s♣ ❡❝✐✜❡❞ t✐♠❡s✳ ❆❧❧ ♦r❞❡rs
❛r❡ ❣❛t❤❡r❡❞ ✐♥ ❛♥ ♦r❞❡r ❜ ♦ ♦❦ ❛♥❞ ❛t s♣ ❡❝✐✜❡❞ ♠♦♠❡♥ ts t✐♠❡s ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s
❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r❡❞ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ r❡q✉✐r❡♠❡♥ ts✱ ✉s✉❛❧❧② ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ✭s❡❡ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r
❢♦r ❛ ❞❡t❛✐❧❡❞ ♣r❡s❡♥ t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ s✉❝ ❤ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r② ♠❡t❤♦ ❞✮✳ ș♥ t❤✐s t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱
t❤❡ tr❛❞❡ ❡①❡❝✉t✐♦♥ s②st❡♠ ✐s ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✬ s✐♥❣❧❡ ♣r✐❝ ❡ ❛✉❝t✐♦♥s ✬✳ ❆❧❧ ♠❛t❝ ❤✐♥❣ tr❛❞❡s ❛r❡
❡①❡❝✉t❡❞ ❛t t❤❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r❡❞ ✉♥✐q✉❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✭❛s ❧♦♥❣ ❛s t❤✐s ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s
❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❜✉② ❛♥❞ t❤❡ s❡❧❧ ♣r✐❝❡s✮✳
❉✉r✐♥❣ ❝ ♦♥t✐♥✉♦✉s s❡ss✐♦♥s tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♦ ❝❝✉rs ❛t ❛♥ ② t✐♠❡ ❞✉r✐♥❣ t❤❡ s❡ss✐♦♥✳ ❆
♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦r❞❡r ✐s ❡①❡❝✉t❡❞ ✐♠♠❡❞✐❛t❡❧② ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❜ ❡st ❝♦✉♥ t❡r♣❛rt ② ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡✳ ❆ ❧✐♠✐t
♦r❞❡r ✐s ❡①❡❝✉t❡❞ ✇❤❡♥ ❛♥♦t❤❡r ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡r ✐s s✉✐t❛❜❧❡ ❛s ❝♦✉♥ t❡r♣❛rt ② ✭♦r ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♦r❞❡r ❛rr✐✈ ❡s✮✳ ❖r❞❡rs t❤❛t ❛r❡ ♥♦t r❡s♦❧✈ ❡❞ ❛r❡ ♣❧❛❝❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜ ♦ ♦❦ ❢♦r ❧❛t❡r
♣r♦ ❝❡ss✐♥❣✳ ❚❤✐s t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ s❡ss✐♦♥ ❛❧❧♦ ✇s tr❛❞❡rs t♦ ❡①❡❝✉t❡ t❤❡✐r ♦r❞❡rs ❢❛st❡r ✭❛♥❞
t❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ q✉✐❝ ❦❧② ♣r♦✜t ♦♥ t❤❡✐r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❡①❡❝✉t✐♦♥ ♣r♦ ❝❡❞✉r❡ ❢♦r tr❛❞❡s
✐♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡ ✐s ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✬❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉♦✉s t ✇ ♦✲s✐❞❡❞ ❛✉❝t✐♦♥s✬✳
❍❛ ✈✐♥❣ r❡✈✐❡✇ ❡❞ t❤❡ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ♦r❞❡rs ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s t❤❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ s❡ss✐♦♥s✱ ✇ ❡
❞✐s❝✉ss t❤❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ❡①❡❝✉t✐♦♥ s②st❡♠s ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡✿
✶✳ ◗✉♦t❡✲❞r✐✈❡♥ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✿ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦♥✬t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣
❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❡❛❝ ❤ ♦t❤❡r✳ ❆ s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧✐③❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣❛rt♥❡r✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠❛❦ ❡r✧✱ ♣❧❛❝❡s
q✉♦t❡s ❛t ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❤❡ ✐s ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ ❜✉② ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❚❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠❛❦ ❡r ♦✛❡rs ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ②
❛♥❞ ✐s t❤❡ ❝♦✉♥ t❡r♣❛rt ② ❢♦r ❡✈ ❡r② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✳
✷✳ ❖r ❞❡r✲❞r✐✈❡♥ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✿ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ tr❛❞❡ ❞✐r❡❝t❧② ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡♠s❡❧✈ ❡s✳
❚❤❡ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡ st♦r❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ ♣❧❛❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ s♦❧✈ ❡❞ ❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t r✉❧❡s✳
❚❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ♥ ✉♠❡r♦✉s ✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♦r❞❡r✲❞r✐✈ ❡♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts t❤❛t ❞✐❝t❛t❡ t❤❡ ✇ ❛ ② ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝ ❤
tr❛❞❡s ❛r❡ ♠❛t❝ ❤❡❞✿
❛✮ ❖r ❛❧ ❛✉❝t✐♦♥s✿ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♣✉❜❧✐❝❧② ❡①♣r❡ss t❤❡✐r ♦✛❡rs ❢♦r ❜✉②✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧✐♥❣
❛❝t✐♦♥s✳ ș♥ ♦♣♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥✱ s❡❛❧❡❞ ❛✉❝t✐♦♥s ❣✐✈ ❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ② t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ ♣r✐✈ ❛t❡
♦✛❡rs ✭✉s✉❛❧❧② ❢♦✉♥❞ ✐♥ r❡❛❧✲❡st❛t❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✮✳
❜✮ ❘ ✉❧❡✲❜ ❛s❡ ❞ s②st❡♠ ❢♦r ♠❛t❝ ❤✐♥❣ ♦r❞❡rs✿ ❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ r✉❧❡s t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡s
❢♦r tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❛r❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r✳ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥ t r✉❧❡s ❛r❡ ✉s❡❞ ❢♦r ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳
❋ r♦♠ t❤❡s❡ ✇ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡ ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥s ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✇ ❡ ❞✐❞♥✬t ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s❧② ♠❡♥ t✐♦♥
✭❧✐❦ ❡ s✐♥❣❧❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦r ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉♦✉s t ✇ ♦✲s✐❞❡ ❛✉❝t✐♦♥s✮✿ ❈r ♦ss✐♥❣ ♥❡t✇♦r❦s✳ ș♥ ❝r♦ss✐♥❣
♥❡t ✇ ♦r❦s tr❛❞❡s ❛r❡ ❡①❡❝✉t❡❞ ❛t ♣r✐❝❡s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ♥♦t ♣r♦ ❞✉❝❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ♦r❞❡rs ❢r♦♠
t❤✐s ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❚❤❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ s❡t ❡❧s❡✇❤❡r❡✱ ✉s✉❛❧❧② ❛♥♦t❤❡r ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❚❤❡s❡
♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛r❡ ✈ ❡r② s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧✐③❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ ❛s ✬❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈ ❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ s②st❡♠s✬✳
❆ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ r❡✈✐❡✇ ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♠✐❝r♦str✉❝t✉r❡ ❛s♣ ❡❝ts ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❢♦✉♥❞
✐♥ ✭ ❍❛rr✐s ✱ ✷✵✵✷ ✮✳ șt ✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t t♦ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ t❤❛t ❡❛❝ ❤ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ s❡r✈ ❡s s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s✳ ❨ ❡t✱ t❤❡s❡ s②st❡♠s ❛r❡ ❛❧❧ ❝♦♥❝❡✐✈ ❡❞ t♦ ✧❝♦r✲
r❡❝t❧②✧ ✭✉♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞✮ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t t❤❡ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s ♦❢ t❤❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳

✸✳✻✳ Pr✐❝❡ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥s ✹✸
✸✳✻ Pr✐❝❡ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥s
❲ ❡ s❛✇ t❤❡ ❡❧❡♠❡♥ts t❤❛t ❛ss✉r❡ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ◆♦✇
✇❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❛♥❞ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ s♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣✉③③❧❡s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❢♦✉♥❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s ♦❢ r❡❛❧
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ❲ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ r❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐♥❣ t❤❡s❡ ✧♣✉③③❧❡s✧ ✉s✐♥❣ ♦✉r ♠♦❞❡❧ ♦❢ ❛
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✳
ș❢ ✇❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ❛♥② ♣r✐❝❡✴r❡t✉r♥ s❡r✐❡s ❢r♦♠ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✱ ✐t ✇♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ✐♥✲
t❡r❡st✐♥❣ t♦ ❝♦♠♣❛r❡ s✉❝❤ ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡
s✉❝❤ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧s r❛r❡❧② ❡①✐sts ✭❧✐❦❡ ❛✉❞✐t❡❞ ♣❡r✐♦❞✐❝ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡♣♦rts✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❤❛✈❡
t♦♦ ❢❡✇ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛t✐♦♥s✮ ✇❡ ❛r❡ ❧❡❢t ✇✐t❤ ❧♦♦❦✐♥❣ ❛t t❤❡ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ♦❢ t❤❡s❡
s❡r✐❡s✳ ❆❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ t❤❡ ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡ts t❤❡♦r② ✱ ❛ss❡ts r❡t✉r♥s
s❤♦✉❧❞ ❤❛✈❡ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥s✳ ș♥st❡❛❞✱ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t r❡t✉r♥ s❡r✐❡s ❡①❤✐❜✐t ❞✐str✐✲
❜✉t✐♦♥s ✇✐t❤ ✬❤❡❛✈② t❛✐❧s✬✱ ❛❧s♦ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❧❡♣t♦❦✉rt✐❝ ✳ ❚❤✐s ❢❡❛t✉r❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣✿
t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ t♦♦ ❢❡✇ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ r❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞ t♦♦ ♠❛♥② ❡①tr❡♠❡ r❡t✉r♥s ❛s ♦♣♣♦s❡❞ t♦ ✇❤❛t
t❤❡ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧ ♣r♦♣♦s❡s✳ ❚ ♦ ✐❧❧✉str❛t❡ t❤✐s ✬✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♦❞❞✐t②✬ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ❧♦♦❦ ❛t
t❤❡ r❡t✉r♥ s❡r✐❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❋ r❡♥❝❤ ❈❆❈✹✵ ✐♥❞❡① ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ✶✾✾✵✲✷✵✶✷✳
−0.10 −0.05 0.00 0.05 0.100 10 20 30Density
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✸✳✹✿ ✭❜❧❛❝❦✮ ❉✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❈❆❈✹✵ r❡t✉r♥s✱ ✭❣r❡❡♥✮ ◆♦r♠❛❧ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥
❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❈❆❈✹✵ ❤❛s ♠♦r❡ ❡①tr❡♠❡ r❡t✉r♥s ✭t❤❡ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ r❡t✉r♥s ✰✴✲
t❤r❡❡ t✐♠❡s ♦r ♠♦r❡ t❤❡ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥✮ t❤❛♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞✳ ❙✐♠✐❧❛r❧② ✱ t❤❡ r❡t✉r♥
❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❤❛s ❧❡ss t❤❛♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ♠❡❞✐✉♠ r❡t✉r♥s ✭❛✈❡r❛❣❡ r❡t✉r♥ ✰✴✲ t✇♦ t✐♠❡s
t❤❡ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥✮ ❛♥❞ ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ r❡t✉r♥s✳ ❖♥❡ ♦t❤❡r r❡t✉r♥
❛♥♦♠❛❧② ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✬❞❛②✲♦❢✲t❤❡✲✇❡❡❦✬✱ ✭ ▲♦✉✈❡t ❛♥❞ ❖ ✱✶✾✾✵ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ▲♦✉✈❡t ❛♥❞ ❉✉❜♦✐s ✱
✶✾✾✻ ✮✱ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t r❡t✉r♥s ❛r❡ ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥t❧② ❤✐❣❤❡r ✐♥ s♦♠❡ ❞❛②s ♦❢ t❤❡ ✇❡❡❦ t❤❛♥ ✐♥
♦t❤❡rs✳ ❉✐s❝♦✈❡r② ♦❢ t❤✐s ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ❧❡❞ t❤❡ ✇❛② t♦ ✐ts ❞✐s❛♣♣❡❛r❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ✐t ✐s ♥♦✇
r❛r❡❧② ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞✳
❆♥♦t❤❡r ✐♥t❡r❡st✐♥❣ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣✉③③❧❡ ❤❛s t❤❡ ♥❛♠❡ ♦❢ ✬ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ✬✳ ❆s
✜rst ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ✐♥ ✭ ▼❛♥❞❡❧❜r♦t ✱✶✾✻✸ ✮✱ t❤❡ ♣✉③③❧❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t ❧❛r ❣❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s t❡♥❞ t♦
❜ ❡ ❢♦❧ ❧♦✇❡ ❞ ❜② ❧❛r ❣❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s✱♦❢ ❡✐t❤❡r s✐❣♥✱ ❛♥❞ s♠❛❧ ❧ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s t❡♥❞ t♦ ❜ ❡ ❢♦❧ ❧♦✇❡ ❞
❜② s♠❛❧ ❧ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ✳❚❤✐s ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥♦♥ ✐s ♣✉t ✐♥t♦ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ❜② t❤❡ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❛ s❧♦✇✲
❞❡❝❛②✐♥❣ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ ♦r sq✉❛r❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s ♦❢ ❛ss❡t

✹✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✸✳ ❖❜ ❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞②
♣r✐❝❡s✳
0 50 100 150 2000.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Lag
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✸✳✺✿ ❆✉t♦ ❝♦rr❡❧♦❣r❛♠ ♦❢ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ ❈❆ ❈✹✵ r❡t✉r♥s
❆s ❞♦ ❝✉♠❡♥ t❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ▲♦✉✈ ❡t ❛♥❞ ❖ ✱ ✶✾✾✸ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ▲♦✉✈ ❡t ❛♥❞ ❖ ✱ ✶✾✾✼ ✮✱ ✐❢ ✇ ❡ ❧♦ ♦❦ ❛t
t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❞✐❝❛t♦r✱ ❈❆ ❈✹✵✱ ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❛t ✐ts s✐♠♣❧❡ r❡t✉r♥s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❛✉t♦✲
❝♦rr❡❧❛t❡❞✱ t❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ❝♦♥✜r♠✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✇ ❡❛❦✲❢♦r♠ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② t❤❡♦r② ✳ ▲♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ❛t ❋✐❣✉r❡
✸✳✺ ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❛t ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r❡t✉r♥s ❛r❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ ❡❛❝ ❤ ♦t❤❡r ✇✐t❤ ❛ str❡♥❣t❤
t❤❛t ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡s s❧♦ ✇❧② ❛♥❞ ❧❛sts ❢♦r ❛❧♠♦st ✷✵✵ ❞❛ ②s✳ ❚❤✐s ♣r♦♣r✐❡t ② ✐s ❛❧s♦ ❝❛❧❧❡❞
✬✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣✬✱ ❛ t❡♥❞❡♥❝② t❤❛t r❡t✉r♥s ❝❛♥ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥ t ❧❡✈ ❡❧s ♦❢ ❧♦ ✇ ♦r
❤✐❣❤ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❧❡✈ ❡❧s✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ❤✐❣❤✴❧♦ ✇ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ✐♠♣❧✐❡s✱ ✇✐t❤ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ s✐❣♥✐✜✲
❝❛♥❝❡✱ ❛ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❤✐❣❤✴❧♦ ✇ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ✇ ❡ s❛ ② t❤❛t t❤❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛t
t✐♠❡ t✰✶ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡✱ ✐♥ ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❞❡❣r❡❡✱ ❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞❛t❛ ❛t t✐♠❡ t✳
❚❤ ✉s t❤✐s ♣r♦♣r✐❡t ② ✐s ❛❧s♦ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❛ ❧♦♥❣✲♠❡♠♦r② ♦❢ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ✱ s❡❡ ✭ ❉✐♥❣ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✶✾✾✸ ✮
❢♦r ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳ ❆s s❤♦ ✇♥ ✐♥ ✭ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✷❛ ✮✱ st ②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts ❧✐❦ ❡
t❤❡ ♦♥❡s ♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ❜ ❡❧♦ ✇✱ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ ❛❧r❡❛❞② r❡♣r♦ ❞✉❝❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧
♠♦ ❞❡❧s ♦r ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠✐❝r♦str✉❝t✉r❡ ❝♦♥str❛✐♥s ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❛r❡ ✉♥❢♦rt✉♥❛t❡❧② ✉♥r❡❛❧✐st✐❝ ✐♥
t❡r♠s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✳ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s ❢♦r ♠❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ❤❛ ✈ ❡
❜ ❡❡♥ ✉s❡❞✱ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♦♥❡s ♠❡♥ t✐♦♥❡❞ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ t♦ ♦t❤❡rs t❤❛t ✉s❡ ❝♦♠♣❧✐❝❛t❡❞ st❛t✐st✐✲
❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ❧✐❦ ❡ ✭ ❍❡r✈ ❡ ✱ ✶✾✾✷ ✮✳ ș♥ ♦✉r st✉❞② ✇ ❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐❣❛t❡ t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧
❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s t❤❛t ❝❛✉s❡ s✉❝ ❤ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣✉③③❧❡s✳
Pr✐❝ ❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❛r❡ ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦st ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ✬♣✉③③❧❡s✬ ♦❢ ♠♦ ❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r✲
❦ ❡ts✳ ❊✈ ❡♥ t❤❡ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ s✉❝ ❤ ❛♥ ❡✈ ❡♥ t ✐s st✐❧❧ ❞❡❜❛t❡❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡r❡ ✐s ♥♦ ✇✐❞❡❧②
❛❝❝❡♣t❡❞ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥✳ ș♥ ✭ ❙t✐❣❧✐t③ ✱ ✶✾✾✵ ✮ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦r ♦✛❡rs t❤✐s ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣✉③✲
③❧❡✿ ✧ t❤❡ ❜ ❛s✐❝ ✐♥t✉✐t✐♦♥ ✐s str ❛✐❣❤t❢♦r✇❛r ❞✿ ✐❢ t❤❡ r ❡ ❛s♦♥ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♣r✐❝ ❡ ✐s ❤✐❣❤ t♦ ❞❛②
✐s ♦♥❧② ❜ ❡ ❝ ❛✉s❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ s❡❧ ❧✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝ ❡ ✇✐❧ ❧ ❜ ❡ ❤✐❣❤ t♦♠♦rr ♦✇✲✇❤❡♥
✧❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧✧ ❢❛❝t♦rs ❞♦ ♥♦t s❡ ❡♠ t♦ ❥✉st✐❢② s✉❝❤ ❛ ♣r✐❝ ❡✲t❤❡♥ ❛ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ❡①✐sts✳ ✧ ș❢
✇ ❡ ❞✐sr❡❣❛r❞ ✐ts ❛❝t✉❛❧ ❝❛✉s❡s✱ t❤❡ ❢❛❝t r❡♠❛✐♥s t❤❛t ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ r❡❝♦❣♥✐③❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ✇❤❡♥
♣r✐❝❡s r❛✐s❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡♥ ❞r♦♣ ❞r❛♠❛t✐❝❛❧❧② ✳

✸✳✻✳ Pr✐❝❡ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥s ✹✺
100150200
December 1988
July 1990
February 1992
September 1993
April 1995
November 1996
June 1998
January 2000
August 2001
March 2003
October 2004
May 2006
December 2007
July 2009
February 2011
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✸✳✻✿ ❯❙ r❡s✐❞❡♥t✐❛❧ r❡❛❧✲❡st❛t❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥❞❡① ✭❙♦✉r❝❡✿ ❙✫✜ ❈❛s❡✲❙❤✐❧❧❡r ❍♦♠❡
✜r✐❝❡ ș♥❞✐❝❡s✮
❖♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦st r❡❝❡♥t ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ✇❛s s❡❡♥ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❯❙ r❡❛❧✲❡st❛t❡
♠❛r❦❡t✱ ❛s ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❜② ✭ ▲❡✈✐t✐♥ ❛♥❞ ❲ ❛❝❤t❡r ✱ ✷✵✶✷ ✮✱ ✇❤❡r❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❦❡♣t r✐s✐♥❣ ❢♦r
t❤❡ ❧❛st t❡♥ ②❡❛rs✱ ❡s❝❛❧❛t✐♥❣ ✐♥ ✷✵✵✼ ✇✐t❤ ❛♥ ❛❜r✉♣t ❣r♦✇t❤ ❛♥❞ ❝r❛s❤ ✭s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡
✸✳✻ ✮✳
❇❡s✐❞❡s t❤❡s❡ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ✬✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣✉③③❧❡s✬ ✇❡ ❞r❛✇ t❤❡ ❛tt❡♥t✐♦♥ t♦✇❛r❞s t✇♦ ♠❛r✲
❦❡t q✉❛❧✐t② ♠❡❛s✉r❡s✿ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ♦❢ r ❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞ s✐❣♥❛❧ t♦ ♥♦✐s❡ r ❛t✐♦ ✳ ❚❤❡ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t②
♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s ✐s t♦❞❛② ❛t t❤❡ ❦❡r♥❡❧ ♦❢ ❛❧❧ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧❧② ❛❝❝❡♣t❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t r✐s❦ ♠❡❛✲
s✉r❡♠❡♥ts✳ ❚❤❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❡ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t t❤❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r ❛r❡ ✐ts r✐s❦ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s✳
ș♥✈❡st♦rs ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ r✐s❦ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡② r❡❝❡✐✈❡✳ ș❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❞♦ ♥♦t ❛❣r❡❡
♦♥ r✐s❦ ❧❡✈❡❧s✱ ♣r✐❝❡s ✢✉❝t✉❛t❡ ✉♥t✐❧ ❛ ❝♦♥s❡♥s✉s ✐s ❢♦✉♥❞✳ ❙♦✱ t❤❡ ♠♦r❡ ♣r❡❝✐s❡ ❛♥❞
❝❧❡❛r t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡ ❡❛s✐❡r ❝❛♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t ❛♥❞ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ r✐s❦✳ ❲✐t❤ t❤❡
❛❞✈❡♥t ♦❢ ❡❧❡❝tr♦♥✐❝ ♠❛r❦❡ts✱ ❤✐❣❤✲s♣❡❡❞ ✐♥t❡r♥❡t ❛♥❞ ❞✐❣✐t❛❧ ♠❡❞✐❛ ✐t ✐s ❝❧❡❛r t❤❛t
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❛✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ✐♥ ❛❜✉♥❞❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ♦♥ ❞❡♠❛♥❞✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ✐♠❛❣✐♥❡
t❤❛t ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡s ✐♥ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ✱ ❞✉❡ t♦ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛s②♠♠❡tr② ♦r ❧❛❝❦ ♦❢ q✉❛❧✐t② ✱ s❤♦✉❧❞
❤❛✈❡ ❞✐s❛♣♣❡❛r❡❞✳ ❚❤❡ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ s❤♦✇s t❤❡ ❝♦♥tr❛r② ✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ♠✐❞❞❧❡ ❣r❛♣❤
✇❡ ❝❛♥ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ❧❡✈❡❧ ❤❛s ❜❡❡♥ st❡❛❞✐❧② ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✐♥ ❧❛st ✶✺
②❡❛rs✳
❚❤❡ s✐❣♥❛❧ t♦ ♥♦✐s❡ r❛t✐♦ ✐s ❝♦♠♣✉t❡❞✱ s❡❡ ❆♥♥❡①❡ ❆✳✸ ❢♦r ❝♦❞❡✱ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠✉❧❛
S=µR
σR✳ ❚❤✐s ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ✐s ✉s✉❛❧❧② ✉s❡❞ ✐♥ ❡♥❣✐♥❡❡r✐♥❣ t♦ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ t❤❡ r❛t✐♦ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥
❛ ❞❡s✐r❡ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ ❛ s✐❣♥❛❧ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ s✉rr♦✉♥❞✐♥❣ ♥♦✐s❡✳ ș♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✇❡ ❦♥♦✇ t❤❛t r❡t✉r♥s
❛r❡ ❧✐♥❦❡❞ t♦ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ✈✐❛ r✐s❦✳ ❚❤❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r r✐s❦s ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ❤❛s✱ t❤❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r s❤♦✉❧❞ ❜❡

✹✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✸✳ ❖❜ ❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞②
✐ts r❡t✉r♥s ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s ✐ts ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ✳ ❲ ❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ❙✱ s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✸✳✼ ✱ ❢♦r t❤❡ r❡t✉r♥s
♦❢ t❤❡ ❈❆ ❈✹✵ ✐♥❞❡① ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❛t ✐t ✐s ❞❡❝r❡❛s✐♥❣✳ ș♥ ✇✐♥❞♦ ✇s ♦❢ ✷✺✵ ❞❛ ②s✱ ✇ ❡
❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❛♥❞ ♠❡❛♥ ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❈❆ ❈✹✵ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❞❡①✳
0.01150.01200.01250.01300.01350.01400.0145Volatility of CAC40 returns
−0.02−0.010.000.010.020.030.04Signal to Noise of CAC403/5/1990
6/26/1992
10/10/1994
1/29/1997 5/19/1999 8/21/2001
11/20/2003
2/13/2006 5/19/2008 8/13/2010❋✐❣✉r❡ ✸✳✼✿ ș♥ ✷✺✵ ❞❛②s t✐♠❡✲♣❡r✐♦❞s✿ ✭❛❜♦✈❡✮ ❱ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❈❆❈✹✵✱
✭❜❡❧♦✇✮ ❙✐❣♥❛❧ t♦ ◆♦✐s❡ ❘❛t✐♦ ♦❢ ❈❆❈✹✵ r❡t✉r♥s
❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ s✐❣♥❛❧✲t♦✲♥♦✐s❡ r❛t✐♦ ✐s ❞❡❝r❡❛s✐♥❣✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✲
✐t② ✭❛ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ♦❢ r✐s❦✮ ✐s ❣r♦✇✐♥❣ ♠✉❝❤ ❢❛st❡r t❤❛♥ r❡t✉r♥s t❤✉s r❡♥❞❡r✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡s ❧❡ss
❛♥❞ ❧❡ss ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐✈❡✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♦❢ ✭ ❙✐❧✈❡r ✱ ✷✵✶✷ ✮ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ✐♥ ❞❡t❛✐❧✱ ❛♥❞ ✇✐t❤ ❛
❣r❡❛t ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡s✱ ❤♦✇ ❝❛♥ s✐❣♥❛❧ t♦ ♥♦✐s❡ r❛t✐♦s ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ ❢❛✐❧✉r❡ ♦❢ ♠♦st
✐♥✈❡st✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣✐❡s✳ ❋ r♦♠ ❛♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✈✐❡✇✱ ✇❡ ❛r❡ ❧❡❢t ✇♦♥❞❡r✐♥❣ ✐❢ t❤❡ ♥❡✇
t❡❝❤♥♦❧♦❣✐❡s✱ ❧✐❦❡ ❤✐❣❤ ❢r❡q✉❡♥❝② tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✭s❡❡ st✉❞② ♦❢ ▲✐t③❡♥❜❡r❣❡r ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✷ ✮✮✱
❤❛✈❡ ♠♦r❡ ❧✐❦❡❧② ❤✐♥❞❡r❡❞ t❤❡ q✉❛❧✐t② ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ✐♥✈❡st♦rs r❡❝❡✐✈❡✳ ❆♥♦t❤❡r
❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥ ❝♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ t❤❛t ✐♥st❡❛❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝❤❛♥❣✐♥❣ q✉❛❧✐t② ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ✐t ✐s t❤❡
❝❤❛♥❣✐♥❣ str✉❝t✉r❡ ♦❢ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❡s ✭♠♦r❡ ✐♥t❡r❝♦♥♥❡❝t❡❞✱ ♠♦r❡ ❢r❛❣✐❧❡✱ ✇✐t❤ ✉♥♣r❡✲
❞✐❝t❛❜❧❡ ♣♦❧✐t✐❝❛❧ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡s✮ t❤❛t ❤❛✈❡ ♣r♦✈♦❦❡❞ ❛ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥
♦❢ r✐s❦ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥t❧② ✐♥ t❤❡ ❣r♦✇t❤ ♦❢ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳
❆❧❧ t❤❡s❡ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✬♣✉③③❧❡s✬ ❛r❡ ♣r♦♦❢ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♣r❡❞♦♠✐♥❛♥t ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
r❡s❡❛r❝❤ t❤❡♦r✐❡s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❡♥t✐r❡❧② r❡✢❡❝t❡❞ ✐♥ r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ❆s ✇❡ ♠❡♥t✐♦♥
✐♥ t❤❡ ✜rst ❝❤❛♣t❡r✱ ♠♦st ♠♦❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t❤❡♦r✐❡s ❛r❡ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧❧② ❝♦rr❡❝t ❜✉t
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t st❛t❡s t❤❡② ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡ ❛r❡ ✉s✉❛❧❧② ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈❡✳ ❘❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ❤❛✈❡ ♥♦t ②❡t
❜❡❡♥ r❡❛❝❤❡❞ s✉❝❤ st❛t❡s✳ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤❡rs✱ ✉s✐♥❣ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤❡s✱ ❛r❡ tr②✐♥❣ t♦
❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❜② ♠❛❦✐♥❣ s❧✐❣❤t t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥s t♦ ❛❝❝♦♠♠♦❞❛t❡
t❤❡s❡ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ r❡❛❧✐t✐❡s✳

✸✳✼✳ ❈❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤❡s t♦ st✉❞②✐♥❣ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ✹✼
✸✳✼ ❈❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤❡s t♦ st✉❞②✐♥❣ ♠❛r❦❡t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s
▼❛r❦❡t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s r❡❢❡rs t♦ t❤❡ st✉❞② ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ❚❤❡
t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❢♦✉♥❞❛t✐♦♥s ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♠♦❞❡❧s✱ ✉s❡❞ t♦ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡ s✉❝❤ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s✱ ❛r❡
❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❛ ❢❡✇ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ♣❛r❛❞✐❣♠s✿
• ●♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ t❤❡♦r② ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣❡❞ ❜② ✭ ▼❛r❦♦✇✐t③ ✱✶✾✺✷ ✮
• ❈❛♣✐t❛❧ ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ t❤❡♦r② ✱ ❈❆●▼✱ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣❡❞ ❜② ✭ ❙❤❛r♣❡ ✱✶✾✻✹ ✮
• ❚❤❡ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t② t❤❡♦r② ✐♥✐t✐❛t❡❞ ❜② ✭ ❇❡r♥♦✉❧❧✐ ✱✶✾✺✹ ✮
• ❊✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡t ❤②♣♦t❤❡s✐s ♣r♦♣♦s❡❞ ❜② ✭ ❋ ❛♠❛ ✱✶✾✼✵ ✮
❆s ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s ❝❤❛♣t❡r✱ t❤❡ ❡♥s❡♠❜❧❡ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ t❤❡♦r✐❡s ❤❛s ❜❡❡♥
❢♦✉♥❞ ♥♦t t♦ ❝♦✐♥❝✐❞❡ ✇✐t❤ s♦♠❡ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ♣r♦♦❢ ✭❛❧s♦ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✬st②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts✬✮✳ ●♦♦❞
r❡✈✐❡✇s ♦❢ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ♣✉③③❧❡s ❝❛♥ ❜❡ s❡❡♥ ✐♥ ✭ ❚❤✉r♥❡r ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱✷✵✶✷ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❈♦♥t ✱✷✵✵✶ ✮✳
❚❤❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s t❤❛t r❡st ❛t t❤❡ ❢♦✉♥❞❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ t❤❡♦r✐❡s ❛r❡ r❛t❤❡r str✐❝t ❛♥❞
❛r❡ ♦❢t❡♥ q✉♦t❡❞ ❛s t❤❡ s♦✉r❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞✐s❝r❡♣❛♥❝② ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥
❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t r❡❛❧✐t② ✳ ❚❤❡ ❛❢♦r❡♠❡♥t✐♦♥❡❞ t❤❡♦r✐❡s s❤❛r❡ ❛ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧
❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✿
• ❆❧ ❧ tr ❛❞❡rs ❛r ❡ r ❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✿ ș♥ t❤❡ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢♦✉♥❞✐♥❣ t❤❡♦r✐❡s✱ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s
t❤❛t t❤❡ tr❛❞❡r ❤❛s ♣❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡s t❤❡ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢
❤✐s ✉t✐❧✐t② ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✳
• ❆❧ ❧ tr ❛❞❡rs ❤❛✈❡ ❤♦♠♦ ❣❡♥♦✉s ❡①♣ ❡ ❝t❛t✐♦♥s ✿ ❚❤✐s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t
tr❛❞❡rs s❤❛r❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛❜♦✉t r❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞ r✐s❦s ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❚❤✐s
❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ❝♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ✈ ❛❧✐❞ ✐♥ t✇♦ ✇❛②s✿
✶✳ ❆❧❧ tr❛❞❡rs s❤❛r❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ s✐♥❝❡ t❤❡② ❛r❡ ❛❧❧ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧②
r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ t❤❡② ❛rr✐✈❡ ❛t t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥
✷✳ ❚ r❛❞❡rs ❞♦♥✬t ❤❛✈❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❜✉t t❤❡② ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡♠
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦♥ t❤❡✐r ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ r✐s❦ ❛♥❞ r❡t✉r♥
• ❚ r ❛❞✐♥❣ ♠❡ ❝❤❛♥✐s♠s ❞♦♥ ✬t ❛✛❡ ❝t ♣r✐❝ ❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✿ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥t ♠❡t❤♦❞s ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❧❧♦✇ ❢♦r t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❚❤✐s st❛t❡♠❡♥t ❛❧s♦ ❛ss✉♠❡s t❤❛t
✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ tr❛❞❡s ❞♦♥✬t ❤❛✈❡ ❛♥② ❡✛❡❝t ♦♥ ♣r✐❝❡s✳
• ❚❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐s ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ✿ ❚❤✐s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ❤❛s ♠❛♥② ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❛❝ts ❛s ❛
s❛❢❡t②✲♥❡t ❢♦r t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✳ ❋✐rst❧② ✱ t❤✐s ✐❞❡❛ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t ❛❧❧ ❧❡ss
t❤❛♥ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ s✉♣♣♦s❡❞ t♦ ❜❡ ❞r✐✈❡♥ ♦✉t ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❜❡❝❛✉s❡
t❤❡ ♦t❤❡r r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ♣r♦✜t ♦✛ ♦❢ t❤❡♠✳ ❙❡❝♦♥❞❧② ✱ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛❣❡♥ts
✇✐t❤ ❧❡ss t❤❛♥ ♣❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ❞r✐✈❡♥ ♦✉t ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❜② ❛❣❡♥ts
✇✐t❤ s✉♣❡r✐♦r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤✐r❞❧② ✱ ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐❧❧ ❤❛✈❡ ♦♥❧② r❛t✐♦♥❛❧
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ♣❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐t ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡❤❛✈❡ ❛s ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡t✳

✹✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✸✳ ❖❜ ❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞②
❙♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✜rst ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ st✉❞✐❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✐♥ t❡♥❞❡❞
t♦ s✉♣♣ ♦rt t❤❡s❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t t❤❡♦r✐❡s✳ ◆❡✇ ❛♥❞ ♠♦r❡ ♣ ♦ ✇ ❡r❢✉❧ t❡sts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ r❡✈ ❡❛❧❡❞ ♠❛♥ ②
♠♦r❡ ✐♥❝♦♥s✐st❡♥❝✐❡s ✐♥ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ✭❯♥✮ ❢♦rt✉♥❛t❡❧② s♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ st ②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts
✜rst ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r❡❞ ✭❧✐❦ ❡ t❤❡ ✬❏❛♥ ✉❛r② ❡✛❡❝t✬ ♦r t❤❡ ✬▼♦♥❞❛ ② ❡✛❡❝t✬✮ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❢❛❞❡❞ ❛ ✇ ❛ ②
✭♣r♦❜❛❜❧② ❞✉❡ t♦ ❛r❜✐tr❛❣❡✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❞✐s❛♣♣ ❡❛r❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ s✉❝ ❤ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❢❛❝ts ❤❛s s♣❛r❦ ❡❞
t❤❡ ❞❡❜❛t❡ ❛❜ ♦✉t ✇❤❡t❤❡r st ②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts ❛r❡ ❥✉st ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛ t❤❛t ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡❞
❜ ② t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✭❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ✐♠♠✐♥❡♥ t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②✮ ♦r t❤❛t ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❡ ♥❡❡❞ ❢♦r
r❡✈✐s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❢♦✉♥❞✐♥❣ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳
❘❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❢♦ ❝✉s❡❞ t❤❡✐r ❛tt❡♥ t✐♦♥ ♦♥ t❤❡ ✈ ❡r✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❧❧ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥
❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t❤❡♦r✐❡s✳ ▼✐❝r♦str✉❝t✉r❡ st✉❞✐❡s ❢♦ ❝✉s ♦♥ t❤❡
❧✐♥❦s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠✳ ❊✈✐❞❡♥❝❡✱ ❧✐❦ ❡
✭ ❖✬❍❛r❛ ✱ ✶✾✾✽ ✮✱ ❡①✐sts t❤❛t t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ❝❛♥ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ♦❢ ♠❛r✲
❦ ❡ts✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r t❤❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤r♦✉❣❤♦✉t ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐s ❛♥ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t
❢❛❝t♦r ❢♦r ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✭ ●❧♦st❡♥ ❛♥❞ ▼✐❧❣r♦♠ ✱ ✶✾✽✸ ✮✳
❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✱ ❛♥ ❡♠❡r❣✐♥❣ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ tr❡♥❞✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐❣❛t❡s t❤❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ♦❢
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ❛♥❞ ❤♦♠♦❣❡♥❡✐t ② ✳ ❚❤❡ t ✇ ♦ ♠❛✐♥ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣✐❡s ✉s❡❞ ✐♥ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✲
✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❛r❡ ❡①♣ ❡r✐♠❡♥ t❛❧ st✉❞✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❊①♣ ❡r✐♠❡♥ t❛❧
st✉❞✐❡s ❝♦♥s✐st ♦❢ ❡✐t❤❡r s✉r✈ ❡②s ♦r ❧❛❜ ♦r❛t♦r② ❡①♣ ❡r✐♠❡♥ ts✳ ❚❤❡s❡ st✉❞✐❡s ❛r❡ ✉s❡✲
❢✉❧ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡② ❝❛♥ ❝♦♥ tr♦❧✱ t♦ ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❡①t❡♥ t✱ t❤❡ ❡♥ ✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥ t❛❧ s❡tt✐♥❣s ♦❢
t❤❡ st✉❞✐❡❞ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡✐r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✇❤❡♥ ❢❛❝❡ ✇✐t❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t r❡✲
❧❛t❡❞ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✐♠ ♦❢ t❤✐s t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ st✉❞✐❡s ✐s t♦ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r ❤♦ ✇ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♠❛❦ ❡
❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ✉♥❞❡r r✐s❦✳ ●r♦✉♥❞✲❜r❡❛❦✐♥❣ ❛❞✈ ❛♥❝❡s ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡s❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s ❤❛ ✈ ❡
❜ ❡❡♥ ♠❛❞❡ ❜ ② ◆♦❜ ❡❧ ●r✐③❡ ✇✐♥♥❡r ❉❛♥✐❡❧ ❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥ ✭✐♥ ❛ss♦ ❝✐❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❆♠♦s ❚ ✈ ❡r✲
s❦②✮✳ ❚❤❡✐r ✬♣r♦s♣ ❡❝t t❤❡♦r②✬✱ ✭ ❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❚ ✈ ❡rs❦② ✱ ✶✾✼✾ ✮✱ s❤♦ ✇s ❤♦ ✇ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♣ ❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡♣ ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ ❡♥ ✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ✭❡✳❣✳
❧♦ss❡s✱ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤✮✳ ❆ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ❛rt✐❝❧❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ♦❢ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✐s
✭ ▼✐tr♦✐ ❆ ❞r✐❛♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✼ ✮✳
▼✐❝r♦str✉❝t✉r❡ ❛♥❞ ❡①♣ ❡r✐♠❡♥ t❛❧ st✉❞✐❡s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ ♣r♦ ♦❢ t❤❛t ♠♦st ❛ss✉♠♣✲
t✐♦♥s✱ ✉s❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ❢♦✉♥❞✐♥❣ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s✱ ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❡♥❝♦✉♥ t❡r❡❞ ✐♥ r❡❛❧✲
✐t ② ✳ ❙t✐❧❧✱ t❤❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② t❤❡♦r② st❛t❡ t❤❛t t❤❡s❡ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧
✜♥❞✐♥❣s ❛r❡ ❛ s♦✉r❝❡ ♦❢ ♣r♦✜t ❢♦r r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ s✉r❡ t♦ ❜ ❡ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡❞✳
❚ ♦ t❡st s✉❝ ❤ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✱ ❛ ♥❡✇ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ❤❛s ❜ ❡❡♥ ❞❡✈✐s❡❞✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞
✬❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥✬✳
✸✳✽ ❙✉♠♠❛r②
ș♥ t❤✐s ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✇ ❡ ♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ♦❢ ❛ ❣❡♥❡r✐❝ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱
❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ t❤❡ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t♦ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❋✐rst❧② ✱
✇ ❡ s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞ ❤♦ ✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ q✉❛❧✐t ② ❝❛♥ ❛✛❡❝t t❤❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❙❡❝♦♥❞❧② ✱
✇ ❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ❝❛t❡❣♦r✐❡s ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡s✱ ♦❢ ♣ ❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥✱ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦r ❝♦❣♥✐t✐♦♥✱
✇❤✐❝ ❤ r❡❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs s✉✛❡r ❢r♦♠✳ ❚❤✐r❞❧② ✱ ✇ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡

✸✳✽✳ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ✹✾
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠s t❤❛t ❡①✐st ✐♥ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❲ ❡ ❣❛ ✈ ❡ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡s t♦ st✉❞✐❡s t❤❛t
s❤♦ ✇ ❤♦ ✇ t❤❡s❡ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠s ❛✛❡❝t t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ◆❡①t ✇ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ t❤❡
✬st ②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts✬ ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ♠❛r❦ ❡t q✉❛❧✐t ② ♠❡❛s✉r❡s t❤❛t s❤♦ ✇ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ✐♥❝♦♥s✐st❡♥❝✐❡s
❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ r❡❛❧✐t✐❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❝✉rr❡♥ t ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t❤❡♦r✐❡s✳
ș♥ t❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥✱ ✇ ❡ ♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤❡s ✉s❡❞ ✐♥ ❛♥❛❧②③✐♥❣ t❤❡
❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳

❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹
❆❣❡♥t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦❝❦
♠❛r❦❡ts
❈♦♥t❡♥ts
✹✳✶ ❈♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✶
✹✳✷ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✻
✹✳✷✳✶ ❉❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✻
✹✳✷✳✷ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✻
✹✳✷✳✸ ❆ ❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ♦❢ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✾
✹✳✸ ❚ ♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✶
✹✳✸✳✶ ◆♦t❛❜❧❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✷
✹✳✸✳✷ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✽
✹✳✸✳✸ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ t✐♠❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✾
✹✳✸✳✹ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✾
✹✳✸✳✺ ❇✐❛s ✐♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss✐♥❣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✵
✹✳✸✳✻ ❘✐s❦ ❛♥❞ t✐♠❡ ♣r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✶
✹✳✸✳✼ ❆❣❡♥ t ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✶
✹✳✸✳✽ ❆❣❡♥ t str❛t❡❣② ❜✐❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✸
✹✳✸✳✾ Pr✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✸
✹✳✹ ❈r✐t✐❝s ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛s ❛ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞✲
♦❧♦❣② ❢♦r r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✹
✹✳✹✳✶ ❊q✉✐✈ ❛❧❡♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛♥❞ ❛
♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✻
✹✳✶ ❈♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s
❇❡❢♦r❡ ✇❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❛♥❞ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣✉r♣♦s❡ ❛♥❞ ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉✲
❧❛t♦r ✇❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❜❛s✐s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s ✐t s♦❧✈❡s✳
ș♥ t❤❡ ✇♦r❧❞ ♦❢ ❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝s✱ t❤❡ ❤②♣♦t❤❡s✐s ❛♥❞ ♠❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ r❡❞✉❝t✐♦♥✐s♠✱ ❛s
♥♦t❡❞ ❜② ✭ ◆❛❣❡❧ ✱ ✶✾✻✶ ✮✱✭ ❆♥❞❡rs♦♥ ✱ ✶✾✼✷ ✮✱ ✐s ✇✐❞❡❧② ❛❝❝❡♣t❡❞ ❛s ❛ ✈ ❛❧✐❞ ❛♥❞ ♣r♦❞✉❝✲
t✐✈❡ ♠❡t❤♦❞ ♦❢ r❡s❡❛r❝❤✳ ▼❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ r❡❞✉❝t✐♦♥✐s♠ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡❞✱ ❧♦♦s❡❧② ✱ ❛s

✺✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
t❤❡ ✐❞❡❛ t❤❛t ❛ s②st❡♠✱ ❜ ❡ ✐t ❛ ❤ ✉♠❛♥✱ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t ♦r ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛✱ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❢✉❧❧② ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞
❜ ② ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❧❛ ✇s t❤❛t ❣♦ ✈ ❡r♥ t❤❡ ✐♥♥❡r ❜❛s✐❝ ♣❛rt✐❝❧❡s ♦❢ t❤❛t s②st❡♠✳
❘❡❞✉❝t✐♦♥✐s♠ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ✈✐❡✇ ❛s t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧✱ ✇❤❡♥ ♦♥❡ t❤❡♦r② ❝❛♥ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ❡①♣❧❛✐♥
❛♥♦t❤❡r t❤❡♦r② ✱ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ♦r ♦♥ t♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧✱ ❢♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ✇❤❡♥ ✇ ❡ ✈✐❡✇ t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❧❞
♦❢ ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ❝♦♠♣ ♦s❡❞ ♦❢ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ ♣❛rt ✭❧✐❦ ❡ t❤❡ ❛t♦♠✮✳ ❲ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❢♦ ❝✉s ♦♥ t❤❡
♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❛s♣ ❡❝ts ♦❢ r❡❞✉❝t✐♦♥✐s♠✳
ș♥ ✭ ❆♥❞❡rs♦♥ ✱ ✶✾✼✷ ✮ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦r ❝♦♥❢r♦♥ ts t❤✐s ❤ ②♣ ♦t❤❡s✐s ❛♥❞ s❤♦ ✇s ❛ ❢❡✇ ❡①✲
❛♠♣❧❡s ✇❤❡♥ r❡❛❧✐t ② ♣ ♦✐♥ ts t❤❛t r❡❞✉❝t✐♦♥✐s♠ ✐s ♥♦t ❡♥♦✉❣❤✳ ❲ ❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ ❛ ❢❡✇
❡①❛♠♣❧❡s ♦❢ s②st❡♠s✱ ❝❧♦s❡r t♦ ♦✉r ❞♦♠❛✐♥ ♦❢ ❡①♣ ❡rt✐s❡✱ t❤❛t ❝❛♥♥♦t ❜ ❡ ❢✉❧❧② ✉♥✲
❞❡rst♦ ♦ ❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ r❡❞✉❝t✐♦♥✐st ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡s ✇✐❧❧ ❣✉✐❞❡ t❤❡ r❡❛❞❡r
t♦ ✇ ❛r❞s ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞✐♥❣ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s✱ t❤❡✐r ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s ❛♥❞ ❤♦ ✇ ❝❛♥ ♦♥❡ st✉❞②
t❤❡♠✳
❆ s②st❡♠ ✐s ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ❜ ② ❛ s❡t ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts✱ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡♠✱
❧♦ ❝❛t❡❞ ✇✐t❤✐♥ ❛ ❜ ♦✉♥❞❛r② t❤❛t ❞❡✜♥❡s t❤❡ s✉rr♦✉♥❞✐♥❣s ♦❢ t❤❡ s②st❡♠✳ ❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱
❛ ♣ ♦ ♦❧ t❛❜❧❡ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ ❛s ❛ s②st❡♠ ✭s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✹✳✶ ✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❜❛❧❧s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ s✐❞❡s
♦❢ t❤❡ t❛❜❧❡ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t t❤❡ s②st❡♠✬s ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♦✉t❡r s✐❞❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ t❛❜❧❡ ❛❝t
❛s ❛ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ ❜ ♦✉♥❞❛r② ✳ ❚❤❡ ❜❛❧❧s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ t❛❜❧❡ s✐❞❡s ❝❛♥ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ❣✉✐❞❡❞ ❜ ②
❛ ♠✐① ♦❢ ❢♦r❝❡s✿ ❣r❛ ✈✐t ② ✱ ❢r✐❝t✐♦♥ ✭✇✐t❤ ❛✐r ❛♥❞ t❛❜❧❡✮ ❛♥❞ ❡❧❛st✐❝ ❞❡❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭✇❤❡♥
❜❛❧❧s ❝♦❧❧✐❞❡ ✇✐t❤ ❡❛❝ ❤ ♦t❤❡r ♦r ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ t❛❜❧❡ s✐❞❡s✮✳
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✹✳✶✿ ❘❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❣❡♥❡r✐❝ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ s✉❝ ❤ ❛ s②st❡♠✱ ❛ ♣ ♦ ♦❧ t❛❜❧❡✱ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇s ❦♥♦ ✇♥ r✉❧❡s ✇ ❡ ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❝♦♥str✉❝t
❛♥ ❛♥❛❧②t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ t❤❛t ♣r❡❞✐❝ts t❤❛t st❛t❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ s②st❡♠ ✭♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛❧❧s✱ ❡t❝✳✮✳
ș❢ ✇ ❡ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ s②st❡♠✱ ❜ ② ❤✐tt✐♥❣ ❛ ❜❛❧❧ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❝✉❡✱ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦ ❡❛s✐❧② ♣r❡❞✐❝t
t❤❡ tr❛ ❥❡❝t♦r② ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛❧❧ ❛♥❞ t❤❛t ♦❢ t❤❡ ✜rst ❜❛❧❧s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❛❧s♦ t♦✉❝ ❤❡❞✳ ș♥ ❢❛❝t✱
♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧ ♣ ♦ ♦❧ ♣❧❛ ② ❡rs ❞♦ t❤❡s❡ ❦✐♥❞s ♦❢ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ❛♥❞ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ✇✐♥
♣ ♦ ♦❧ ❣❛♠❡s✳ ❆ s✐♠✐❧❛r s②st❡♠ ✐s r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ ❜ ② ❛ ❝❛r ♦♥ ❛ r♦❛❞✳ ❲ ❡ ❦♥♦ ✇ ❛❧❧

✹✳✶✳ ❈♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s ✺✸
t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ♦❢ ❛ ❝❛r ❛♥❞ ❤♦ ✇ t❤❡② ✇ ♦r❦ ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t ✇✐t❤ ❡❛❝ ❤ ♦t❤❡r✳ ș❢ ✇ ❡
st❛rt t❤❡ ❡♥❣✐♥❡ ❛♥❞ ♣✉s❤ t❤❡ r✐❣❤ t ♣ ❡❞❛❧s t❤❡ ❝❛r ✇✐❧❧ st❛rt ♠♦ ✈✐♥❣ ❢♦r✇ ❛r❞s ✭♦r
❜❛❝ ❦✇ ❛r❞s✮ ✐♥ ❛ ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❞❡♣ ❡♥❞s ♦♥ t❤❡ ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ st❡❡r✐♥❣ ✇❤❡❡❧ ❛♥❞ t❤❡
❣❡❛r s❡❧❡❝t❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❣❡❛r✲s✇✐t❝ ❤✳ ❙♦ ❢❛r✱ ❛ ❝❛r ❧♦ ♦❦s ❧✐❦ ❡ ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ s②st❡♠✳ ❲ ❡ ❝❛♥
❞❡✜♥❡ ❛ ✧s✐♠♣❧❡ s②st❡♠✧ ❛s ❛ s②st❡♠ t❤❛t ❤❛s✱ ❛s ❛ ✇❤♦❧❡✱ ♣r♦♣ ❡rt✐❡s ✭tr❛ ❥❡❝t♦r② ✱
st❛t❡s✱ ❡t❝✳✳✮ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❛r❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡❞ ❢r♦♠ ❦♥♦ ✇✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣r♦♣ ❡rt✐❡s ♦❢ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧
❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts✳ ❆ ♣ ♦ ♦❧ t❛❜❧❡ ❛♥❞ ❛ ❝❛r ❛r❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ ❛s ✧s✐♠♣❧❡ s②st❡♠s✧✳
❲❤❛t ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥s ✐❢ ✇ ❡ ❞❡❝✐❞❡ t♦ ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝❡ ❛ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ❞r✐✈ ❡r ✐♥ t♦ t❤❡ ❝❛r✬s s②st❡♠❄
❆r❡ ✇ ❡ st✐❧❧ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ♣r❡❞✐❝t t❤❡ ❝❛r✬s ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥❄ ❲ ❡ ❝❛♥✱ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ ✇ ❡ ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❡
❧❛ ✇s t❤❛t ❛ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ❞r✐✈ ❡r ♦❜ ❡②s✳ ❯♥❢♦rt✉♥❛t❡❧② ✱ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ♥♦ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s t❤❛t ❝❛♥
♣r❡❞✐❝t t❤❡ ✇ ❛ ② ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❛ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ❞r✐✈ ❡r ❛❝ts✳ ❈♦♥s❡q✉❡♥ t❧② ✇ ❡ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s
❛❜ ♦✉t ❤♦ ✇ ❛ ❞r✐✈ ❡r ✇✐❧❧ ❛❝t✱ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❲ ❡ ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t ❛ ❞r✐✈ ❡r
r❡❞✉❝❡s s♣ ❡❡❞ t♦ ❛ ✈ ♦✐❞ ♦❜st❛❝❧❡s ♦r st❛ ②s ♦♥ t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t s✐❞❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ r♦❛❞✳ ❯s✐♥❣ t❤✐s
♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✇ ❡ ♠❛❦ ❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ r♦❛❞ s②st❡♠✬s st❛t❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱
❦♥♦ ✇✐♥❣ t❤❛t ♣ ♦❧✐❝❡♠❡♥ ♣❧❛❝❡ s❛♥❝t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ✜♥❡s ♦♥ ❞r✐✈ ❡rs t❤❛t ♠✐s❜ ❡❤❛ ✈ ❡✱ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥
❡✈ ❡♥ ♣ ♦st✉❧❛t❡ ❛♥ ✬❡✣❝✐❡♥ t r♦❛❞s✬ t❤❡♦r❡♠✿
✬❆ tr ❛♥s♣ ♦rt❛t✐♦♥ s②st❡♠ ✐s ❝ ❛❧ ❧❡ ❞ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ✐❢ t❤❡ tr✐♣s ♦❢ ❛❧ ❧ ❝ ❛rs ❛r ❡ ❢❛st ❛♥❞
♦♥ t✐♠❡ ✬✳ ❚ ♦ ❡♥s✉r❡ s✉❝ ❤ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✱ r❡❣✉❧❛t♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❝r❡❛t❡❞ tr❛✣❝ ❝♦♥ tr♦❧❧❡rs ✭❡✳❣✳
tr❛✣❝ ♣ ♦❧✐❝❡✱ tr❛✣❝ s✉r✈ ❡✐❧❧❛♥❝❡ ❡q✉✐♣♠❡♥ t✮ t❤❛t ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ s❛♥❝t✐♦♥ ✐rr❡❣✉❧❛r✐t✐❡s✳
ș❢ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ✐rr❡❣✉❧❛r✐t✐❡s ❛r❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡❞ ✭q✉❡✉❡s✱ r♦❛❞❜❧♦ ❝ ❦s✱ ❡t❝✳✮✱ tr❛✣❝ ❝♦♥ tr♦❧❧❡rs
✐♥ t❡r✈ ❡♥❡ ✭✇✐t❤ s❛♥❝t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ✜♥❡s✮ t❤ ✉s ❢♦r❝✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✬♥♦♥✲r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✬ ❞r✐✈ ❡rs t♦ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈ ❡
✇ ❡❧❧ ✐♥ tr❛✣❝✳ ❆ ❝♦r♦❧❧❛r② t♦ t❤✐s t❤❡♦r❡♠ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ t❤❛t ❛❧❧ ❞r✐✈ ❡rs ❛r❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛♥❞
♦❜ ❡② ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② t❤❡ tr❛✣❝ ❧❛ ✇s✳ ❚❤♦s❡ t❤❛t ❛r❡ ♥♦t r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♦r ❞♦♥✬t ♦❜ ❡② r✉❧❡s ❛r❡
q✉✐❝ ❦❧② ✜♥❡❞ ❛♥❞ ♣✉♥✐s❤❡❞ ✉♥ t✐❧ t❤❡② ❞♦ ❜ ❡❝♦♠❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❞r✐✈ ❡rs ♦r t❤❡② ❧♦s❡ t❤❡
r✐❣❤ t t♦ ❞r✐✈ ❡✳
❚❤❡ r❡s✉❧t ♦❢ s✉❝ ❤ ❛ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✐s t❤❛t ✇ ❡ ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ♠✐ss ♦✉t ♦♥ ❛ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ s②st❡♠
st❛t❡s ✭❧✐❦ ❡ tr❛ ✈ ❡❧✐♥❣ ♦♥❧② ✐♥ r❡✈ ❡rs❡✱ s♣ ❡❡❞✐♥❣ ✇❤✐❧❡ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤✐♥❣ ❛♥ ♦❜st❛❝❧❡ ♦r
❝ ❤❛♥❣✐♥❣ ❧❛♥❡s✱ ✢✐♣♣✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❝❛r ✉♣s✐❞❡ ❞♦ ✇♥ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ ❡①❝❡ss✐✈ ❡ s♣ ❡❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ ❝✉r✈ ❡✱
❡t❝✳✮✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ ❡✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ tr❛✣❝ ❝♦♥ tr♦❧ ❤❛s ❜ ❡❡♥ ✐♥ ♣❧❛❝❡ ❢♦r ❛ ❧♦♥❣ t✐♠❡ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧t
✐s ✇ ❡ st✐❧❧ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛❜❧❡ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ♠✐s❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♥❣ ❞r✐✈ ❡rs t❤❛t ♦❢t❡♥ ♣r♦ ✈ ♦❦ ❡
tr❛✣❝ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s✳ ❊✈ ❡♥ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡s❡ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ❢❛❝t♦rs ❛r❡ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡❞✱ tr❛✣❝ ✐s st✐❧❧ ♥♦t
❡✣❝✐❡♥ t s✐♥❝❡ ✇ ❡ ♦❢t❡♥ s❡❡ r♦❛❞ ❥❛♠s✳ ș♥ r❡❛❧ ❧✐❢❡ ❞r✐✈ ❡rs ❛r❡ ♦❢t❡♥ ✈ ❡r② ✧❝r❡❛t✐✈ ❡✧
❛♥❞ s✉r♣r✐s✐♥❣ ✐♥ t❤❡✐r ❛❝t✐♦♥s✱ ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❛t ❛❧❧ ♦r❞❡r❧② ❛♥❞ r❡s♣ ❡❝t❢✉❧ ♦❢ tr❛✣❝ ❧❛ ✇s
✭❛s ♦✉r ✧❡✣❝✐❡♥ t r♦❛❞s✧ t❤❡♦r② ♣r❡❞✐❝ts✮✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♥♦♥✲❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐st✐❝ ♥❛t✉r❡
♦❢ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ t❤✐♥❦✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❛❝t✐♦♥s✱ ✐t ✐s ❛❧♠♦st ✐♠♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛♥ ❛♥❛❧②t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧
♦❢ ❛ ❤ ✉♠❛♥✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥♥♦t ❡❛s✐❧② ♣r❡❞✐❝t t❤❡ st❛t❡ ♦❢ ❛ s②st❡♠ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❤❛s ❛s ❛
❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ t ❛ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ❢❛❝t♦r✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❦✐♥❞ ♦❢ s②st❡♠s✱ ❛♠♦♥❣ ♦t❤❡rs✱ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ ❝♦✐♥❡❞
✧❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s✧✳ ❙❡❡ ✭ ▲✐❝❛t❛ ❛♥❞ ❙❛❦ ❛ ❥✐ ✱ ✷✵✵✽ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❑❛♥❡❦ ♦ ❛♥❞ ❚ s✉❞❛ ✱ ✷✵✵✶ ✮
❢♦r ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥s t♦ t❤❡ t❤❡♦r② ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s✳
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ✧❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s✧ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t ❛ ♥❡✇ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞② ✱ t❤❡② ❞♦♥✬t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛
st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥✳ ❍❡r❡ ❛r❡ ❛ s❡t ♦❢ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ♠❛ ② ❜ ❡tt❡r ❡①♣r❡ss t❤❡ ✐❞❡❛
♦❢ ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠✿

✺✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
• ❆ ❝ ♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠ ✐s ❛ ❤✐❣❤❧② str✉❝t✉r ❡ ❞ s②st❡♠✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ s❤♦✇s str✉❝t✉r ❡ ✇✐t❤
✈❛r✐❛t✐♦♥s ✭◆✳ ●♦❧❞❡♥❢❡❧❞ ❛♥❞ ❑❛❞❛♥♦✛ ✮
• ❆ ❝ ♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠ ✐s ♦♥❡ ✇❤♦s❡ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ✐s ✈❡r② s❡♥s✐t✐✈❡ t♦ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ ❝ ♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s
♦r t♦ s♠❛❧ ❧ ♣ ❡rt✉r❜ ❛t✐♦♥s✱ ♦♥❡ ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝❤ t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜ ❡r ♦❢ ✐♥❞❡♣ ❡♥❞❡♥t ✐♥t❡r ❛❝t✐♥❣
❝ ♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ts ✐s ❧❛r ❣❡✱ ♦r ♦♥❡ ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝❤ t❤❡r ❡ ❛r ❡ ♠✉❧t✐♣❧❡ ♣ ❛t❤✇❛②s ❜② ✇❤✐❝❤ t❤❡
s②st❡♠ ❝ ❛♥ ❡✈♦❧✈❡ ✭❲❤✐t❡s✐❞❡s ❛♥❞ șs♠❛❣✐❧♦ ✈✮
• ❆ ❝ ♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠ ✐s ♦♥❡ t❤❛t ❜② ❞❡s✐❣♥ ♦r ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦r ❜ ♦t❤ ✐s ❞✐✣❝✉❧t t♦
✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❛♥❞ ✈❡r✐❢② ✭❲ ❡♥❣✱ ❇❤❛❧❧❛ ❛♥❞ ș② ❡♥❣❛r✮
• ❈♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s ❛r ❡ s②st❡♠s ✐♥ ♣r ♦ ❝ ❡ss t❤❛t ❝ ♦♥st❛♥t❧② ❡✈♦❧✈❡ ❛♥❞ ✉♥❢♦❧❞ ♦✈❡r
t✐♠❡ ✭❲✳ ❇r✐❛♥ ❆rt❤ ✉r✮✳
• ❈♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s ❛r ❡ ❝ ♦♠♣ ♦s❡ ❞ ♦❢ ✐♥t❡r ❛❝t✐♥❣ ✉♥✐ts✳ ❚❤❡② ❡①❤✐❜✐t ❡♠❡r ❣❡♥t
♣r ♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s✱ t❤❛t ✐s✱ ♣r ♦♣ ❡rt✐❡s ❛r✐s✐♥❣ ❢r ♦♠ t❤❡ ✐♥t❡r ❛❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ✉♥✐ts t❤❛t
❛r ❡ ♥♦t ♣r ♦♣ ❡rt✐❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✉♥✐ts t❤❡♠s❡❧✈❡s ✭❋❧❛❦❡ ●✳❲✳✮
❆❧❧ t❤❡s❡ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ ✐❞❡❛ ❜ ❡❤✐♥❞ t❤❡♠✿ ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠✬s
♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ❛r❡ ❤❛r❞ t♦ ♣r❡❞✐❝t ❜ ② ❦♥♦ ✇✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ♣❛rts ❛♥❞ ❛♣♣❧②✐♥❣ ❛
❝❧❛ss✐❝ ❛♥❛❧②t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳ ❚❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t s✉❜t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s✳ ❈❤❛♦t✐❝
s②st❡♠s ❛r❡ ✈ ❡r② s❡♥s✐t✐✈ ❡ t♦ ✐♥♣✉t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✳ ❉❡♣ ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ t❤❡ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ st❛t❡ t❤❡
s②st❡♠ ❝❛♥ ❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣ ✭♥♦♥✮❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐st✐❝ ♥♦♥✲❡✈✐❞❡♥ t ❢✉t✉r❡ st❛t❡s ✭❧✐❦ ❡ t❤❡ ❇r♦ ✇♥✐❛♥
♠♦ ✈ ❡♠❡♥ t ♦r ❛ ❞♦✉❜❧❡ ♣ ❡♥❞✉❧✉♠✮✳ ❆ ❞❛♣t✐✈ ❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts
t❤❛t ❡✈ ♦❧✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❛❞❛♣t t❤❡✐r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ t❤❡ ♣❛st ❡①♣ ❡r✐❡♥❝❡s
✭❧✐❦ ❡ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ✐♠♠ ✉♥✐t ② s②st❡♠✱ ❜✐r❞ ✢♦ ❝ ❦s✱ ❡t❝✳✮✳
▼♦ ❞❡r♥ s❝✐❡♥❝❡ ❤❛s✱ ✉♥ t✐❧ r❡❝❡♥ t❧② ✱ ✈✐❡✇ ❡❞ ♠♦st s②st❡♠s ❛s ❜ ❡✐♥❣ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❛♥❞ ❤❛s
♠♦ ❞❡❧❡❞ t❤❡♠ ✉s✐♥❣ ❢❡✇ ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛♥❞ ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s str✉❝t✉r❡✳ ❚❤✐s ♠❡t❤♦ ❞
❤❛s ✇ ♦r❦ ❡❞ ❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧② ✇ ❡❧❧ ✐♥ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ s❝✐❡♥❝❡s ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❞❡❛❧ ✇✐t❤ ✉♥✐✈ ❡rs❛❧ ❧❛ ✇s ✭❣r❛ ✈✐t ② ✱
♠♦t✐♦♥✱ ❡♥ tr♦♣ ② ✱ ❡t❝✳✮✳ ❲✐t❤ s✉❝ ❤ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s✱ s❝✐❡♥ t✐sts ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r❡❞ ♥ ✉❝❧❡❛r ❡♥❡r❣② ✱ ❣❛s
♠♦t♦rs ❛♥❞ ❡❧❡❝tr✐❝✐t ② ✳ ❯s✐♥❣ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ r❡❞✉❝t✐♦♥✐st ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇ ✇ ❡ ✐♠♠❡❞✐❛t❡❧②
♥♦t✐❝❡ t❤❛t t ✇ ♦ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ s②st❡♠s✿ ❞✐❛♠♦♥❞s ❛♥❞ ❣r❛✣t✐ ✭✉s❡❞ ✐♥ ♣ ❡♥❝✐❧s✮✳ ❇♦t❤
s②st❡♠s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❜❛s✐❝ str✉❝t✉r❛❧ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ❤❡r❡ ❝❛r❜ ♦♥ ❛t♦♠s✮ ② ❡t ❝❛♥
❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❡①tr❡♠❡❧② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♦ ✈ ❡r❛❧❧ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ str✉❝t✉r❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦♥♥❡❝t✐♦♥s
❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❛t♦♠s ✐s s❧✐❣❤ t❧② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t✳ ❊①t❡♥❞✐♥❣ t❤✐s ✐❞❡❛✱ ✇ ❡ s❡❡ t❤❛t ❡✈ ❡r②t❤✐♥❣
❛r♦✉♥❞ ✉s ✐s ♠❛❞❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❛t♦♠s ❜✉t t❤❡ ♣❛tt❡r♥s ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ✐♥ t❡r❝♦♥♥❡❝t✐♦♥s ❝❛♥
❧❡❛❞ t♦ ✈ ❡r② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♦❜ ❥❡❝ts ✭❡✳❣✳ ✐♥❦✱ ❡❣❣ s❤❡❧❧s✱ ❤❛✐r✱ ♣ ❡tr♦❧✱ ❡t❝✳✳✳✮✳
ș❢ ✇ ❡ r❡❣❛r❞ ❛ s②st❡♠ ❝♦♥s✐st✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❛ ❝ ❤✐❝ ❦ ❡♥ ❡❣❣ ✇ ❡ ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❛t ✐❢ ✇ ❡ ❞♦♥✬t ❡①♣ ♦s❡
t❤✐s ❡❣❣ t♦ ❤❡❛t ✭♦r t♦ t♦ ♦ ♠ ✉❝ ❤ ❤❡❛t✮ ✐t ✇✐❧❧ ❣♦ ❜❛❞ ✭r♦t✮✳ ș♥st❡❛❞✱ ✐❢ t❤❡ ❡❣❣ ✐s
♣r♦♣ ❡r❧② ❤❡❛t❡❞ ✭❝♦♥st❛♥ t t❡♠♣ ❡r❛t✉r❡ ♦♥ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ s✐❞❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡❣❣✮ ✐t ✇✐❧❧ ❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣ ✐♥ t♦
❛ ❧✐✈✐♥❣ ❝ ❤✐❝ ❦ t❤❛t ✇✐❧❧ ❜r❡❛❦ t❤❡ ❡❣❣ s❤❡❧❧✳ ❲❤✐❧❡ ✐t ❧♦ ♦❦s s✐♠♣❧❡✱ ❢r♦♠ ❛ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✐♥❣
♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇ ✐t ✐s ❛ ❞✐✣❝✉❧t ♣r♦❜❧❡♠ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ s❧✐❣❤ t ✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ ❢❛❝t♦r
❧❡❛❞s t♦ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t r❡s✉❧ts ✭❞❡❝♦♠♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ ✈s✳ t❤❡ ❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣♠❡♥ t ♦❢ ❛ ♥❡✇
❧✐❢❡ ❢♦r♠✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❡❣❣ ❛❝ts ❧✐❦ ❡ ❛ ❝ ❤❛♦t✐❝ s②st❡♠ s✐♥❝❡

✹✳✶✳ ❈♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s ✺✺
❛ ✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ ✐♥♣✉t ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ✭❡✳❣✳ t❡♠♣ ❡r❛t✉r❡✮ ❝❛♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ✈ ❡r② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t
r❡s✉❧ts ✐♥ t❤❡ s②st❡♠ ♦✉t♣✉ts✳
❆ ❝ ❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣✐♥❣ t❤❛t ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❤❛s✱ ❛s ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ ts✱ ♠❛♥ ② ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s
✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s✱ ❡❛❝ ❤ ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡♠ ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ❛ ♥♦♥✲❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐st✐❝ s②st❡♠✱ ✇ ❡ s❛❢❡❧② s❛ ② t❤❛t
❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐s ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠✳ ✵r♦❢❡ss♦r ❍❡r✈ ❡ ❆❧❡①❛♥❞r❡ ♠❡♥ t✐♦♥❡❞✱ s❡❡
✭ ❍❡r✈ ❡ ✱ ✶✾✾✹ ✮✱ t❤❡ ♣❤r❛s❡ ✧❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐st✐❝ ❝ ❤❛♦s✧ ✇❤❡♥ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ș♥
t❤❡ tr❛❞✐t✐♦♥❛❧ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ♠♦ ❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✱ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛r❡ ✈✐❡✇ ❡❞ ❛s ✈ ❡r② s✐♠✲
♣❧❡ s②st❡♠s ✇✐t❤ ❤♦♠♦❣❡♥♦✉s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❛t ❝♦♠♣ ❡t❡ ❛♥❞ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❡①❝❡❧❧❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t
❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤✐s ✇ ❛ ② ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ st✉❞②✐♥❣ s②st❡♠s✱ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♣ ❡rs♣ ❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♦❢ ❛♥
✐❞❡❛❧✐③❡❞ ❢r❛♠❡✇ ♦r❦✱ ✇ ❛s ❜ ♦rr♦ ✇ ❡❞ ❢r♦♠ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ s❝✐❡♥❝❡s✳ ș♥ ♦✉r ♦♣✐♥✐♦♥✱ ❛ t❤❡✲
♦r② ❧✐❦ ❡ ❈❆✵▼ ✐s ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② s✉✐t❡❞ ❢♦r t❤❡ st✉❞② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ✧ ✐❞❡♥t✐❝ ❛❧
♣ ❡r❢❡ ❝t❧②✲s♣❤❡r✐❝ ❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t❤❛t tr ❛❞❡ ♥♦♥✲st♦♣ ✉s✐♥❣ ✐♥✜♥✐t❡ r ❡s♦✉r ❝ ❡s ✐♥ ❛ ✈❛❝✉✲
✉♠❡ ❞ t❤❡r♠♦ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝ ❛❧ ❧② st❛❜❧❡ ❡♥✈✐r ♦♥♠❡♥t ✧✳ ❚❤❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠ ✇✐t❤ t❤✐s ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤ ✐s
t❤❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣ ❡❞ t❤❡♦r② ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❛❞❛♣t❡❞ ❛♥❞ ♠❛✐♥ t❛✐♥❡❞ ❛s ✈ ❛❧✐❞
❡✈ ❡♥ ✇❤❡♥ s♦♠❡ ♦❢ ✐ts✬ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ r❡❧❛①❡❞✳ ❆s ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s❡❡♥✱ r❡❧❛①✐♥❣ ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡s
✐s ♥♦t ❛♥ ❛❝❝❡♣t❛❜❧❡ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s ✇❤❡r❡ s❧✐❣❤ t ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡s ♦❢
t❤❡ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ s②st❡♠ st❛t❡s ✭❤❡❛t❡❞ ♦r ♥♦t ❤❡❛t❡❞ ❡❣❣✮ ❝❛♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t
❢✉t✉r❡ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ st❛t❡s✳ ș♥s✐❞❡ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s②st❡♠✱ ❛ s❧✐❣❤ t ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ❛✛❡❝t✐♥❣ ❛ ✈ ❛r✐✲
❛❜❧❡✱ ❢♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ❛ ♥❡✇ ❧❛ ✇ ❧✐❦ ❡ ✬❝♦♠♣✉❧s♦r② s✉❜♣r✐♠❡ ❧♦❛♥s ♦♥ ❜❛♥❦✬s ❛ss❡ts✬✱ ❝❛♥
❝r❡❛t❡ ❡①tr❡♠❡ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ t❤❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ ts ✭r❡❛❧✲❡st❛t❡ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥✱ ❡①✲
❝❡ss✐✈ ❡ ❝♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥✱ ❤✐❣❤❡r ❛♣♣ ❡t✐t❡ ❢♦r r✐s❦✮ ♦r ✐♥s✐❞❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✬s str✉❝t✉r❡ ✭❞❡❜t
s❡❝✉r✐t✐③❛t✐♦♥✱ ❛ss❡t ♣❛❝ ❦ ❛❣✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ r❡♣❛❝ ❦ ❛❣✐♥❣✮✳ ❙✉❝ ❤ s②st❡♠✐❝ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡s✱ tr✐❣❣❡r❡❞
❜ ② s♠❛❧❧ ✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥♣✉ts✱ ❝❛♥♥♦t ❜ ❡ ❝❛♣t✉r❡❞ ✐♥s✐❞❡ ❛❜str❛❝t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝ ✭st♦ ❝ ❤❛s✲
t✐❝✮ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ❤♦♠♦❣❡♥♦✉s ♠♦ ❞❡❧s✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡② ❛❞❛♣t t♦ ♥❡✇ ✐♥♣✉ts
❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥s ✇✐t❤ ♥❡✇ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t✐❡s✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ r❡❛❝t ❛♥❞ ❝r❡❛t❡ ♥❡✇
♥♦♥✲❡✈✐❞❡♥ t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ❢♦r ❡✈ ❡r② ♥❡✇ ✐♥♣✉t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤✐s ❝♦♥✲
st❛♥ t ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ ts ✐♥ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛♥ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ st❛t❡ ✭❡✳❣✳
❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t✮ ♠❛ ② ♥♦t ❡✈ ❡♥ ❜ ❡ r❡❛❝ ❤❛❜❧❡ ✭♦r ❛t ❧❡❛st ♥♦t ✐♥ ❛ t✐♠❡ s❝❛❧❡ ♦❢ ✐♥ t❡r✲
❡st✮✳ ✭ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ✷✵✵✺❛ ✮ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥s ❤♦ ✇ ❝♦♠♣❧❡①✐t ② ❣♦ ✈ ❡r♥s ❛♥❞ s❤♦✉❧❞ ❜ ❡ t❛❦ ❡♥ ✐♥ t♦
❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤❡♥ ❧♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ❛t ❝r✐t✐❝❛❧ ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❧❞ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳
❉✉❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❤♦♠♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s ❛♥❞ r❡❛❝t✐✈ ❡ ♥❛t✉r❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ✐♥s✐❞❡ ❛ ❝♦♠✲
♣❧❡① s②st❡♠✱ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ♦❢ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ❛r❡ ♦❢t❡♥ ♥♦t ✈ ❡r② ✉s❡❢✉❧✳ ❚❤❡
❝♦♥❝❡♣t ♦❢ ♠ ✉❧t✐✲❛❣❡♥ t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❡♠❡r❣❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤✐s ♥❡❡❞ ♦❢ ♠❛❦✐♥❣ ❜ ❡tt❡r ♠♦ ❞❡❧s
♦❢ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s✳ ❇② ❝r❡❛t✐♥❣ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ s②st❡♠ ✇❤❡r❡ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡
r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡❧② s✐♠♣❧❡ r✉❧❡s ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t ✇✐t❤ ❡❛❝ ❤ ♦t❤❡r ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ r❡❝r❡❛t❡ s②st❡♠✲✇✐❞❡
♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s t❤❛t r❡s❡♠ ❜❧❡ t❤♦s❡ ♦❢ r❡❛❧ s②st❡♠s✳
❆♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❛ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ t♦ ♦❧ t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ♦❢
❛ r❡❛❧ s②st❡♠ ✉s✐♥❣ s✐♠♣❧❡ r✉❧❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s✳ șt ✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t t♦ ♥♦t❡
t❤❛t ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ s②st❡♠ ❝❛♥ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ s②st❡♠ q✉❛❧✐t✐❡s ♦❢ ❛ r❡❛❧ s②st❡♠✳
❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤✐s ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r❡❞ t❤❛t ❜✐r❞s ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ❢♦❧✲
❧♦ ✇ t❤r❡❡ s✐♠♣❧❡ r✉❧❡s t♦ ❢♦r♠ t❤❡ ❱✲s❤❛♣ ❡❞ ✢♦ ❝ ❦ ❛rr❛♥❣❡♠❡♥ ts ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ❞✉r✐♥❣
♠✐❣r❛t✐♦♥ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s✳

✺✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
ș♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱ t❤❡ ❣♦❛❧ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✐s t♦ ✜♥❞ s❡ts ♦❢ ♠✐❝r♦
s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥ r✉❧❡s ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ❤♦ ✇ t❤❡s❡ r✉❧❡s ❛✛❡❝t t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ❝ ❤❛r✲
❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✿ ♣r✐❝❡s✱ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡s✱ ♠✐❝r♦str✉❝t✉r❡ q✉❛❧✐t ② ❛♥❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧
❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✳ ❈❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤❡s ❢♦r st✉❞②✐♥❣ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ r❡❣❛r❞❡❞ ❛s
❡q✉❛t✐♦♥✲❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s✳ ❙✉❝ ❤ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ✉s✉❛❧❧② ♠❛❦ ❡ ❤❛r❞ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❧✐❦ ❡ t❤❛t ❛❧❧
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞✱ t❤❛t t❤❡② ❛r❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✭❛s ♦♣♣ ♦s❡❞ t♦ ❜ ♦✉♥❞❡❞
r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✇ ❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ✐♥ t❤✐s ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r✮✳ ❆❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✐♥❣ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡s ❛ r✐❣✲
♦r♦✉s ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ ❢♦r r❡❧❛①✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ t❡st✐♥❣ t❤❡s❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✭❡✳❣✳ ❧✐♠✐t❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱
❜ ♦✉♥❞❡❞ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ♦r ♦❜s❡r✈✐♥❣ ❢❛r ❢r♦♠ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ st❛t❡s✮✳
✹✳✷ ❆❣❡♥t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥
✹✳✷✳✶ ❉❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts
❆♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✐s ❛ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ t♦ ♦❧ t❤❛t s❤♦ ✇s t❤❡ ❡♠❡r❣❡♥ t ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ♦❢ ❛
s②st❡♠ st❛rt✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ s②st❡♠✬s ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts✳ ❇② ✉s✲
✐♥❣ t❤✐s t♦ ♦❧✱ ✇ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ♦❢ ❛ s②st❡♠✱ ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s t❤❡✐r
✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥s✱ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡ t❤❡ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡s❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ❛t ❛♥ ②
❧❡✈ ❡❧ ♦❢ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t✐♦♥✳ ❋ r♦♠ ❛ ❜r♦❛❞❡r ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇✱ ❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ❛❧❧♦ ✇s
✉s t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡ ✐♥✲✈✐tr♦ ❡①♣ ❡r✐♠❡♥ ts ♦❢ ❧❛r❣❡ s②st❡♠s ✭❧✐❦ ❡ r❡♣r♦ ❞✉❝✐♥❣ ❛ ❝✐t ②✬s tr❛♥s✲
♣ ♦rt❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥❢r❛str✉❝t✉r❡✮✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ♠❛♥♥❡r ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❝❛✉s❛❧✐t ②
❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ✐♥♣✉ts✱ s❡ts ♦❢ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ r✉❧❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ s②st❡♠✳
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛r❡ ❛ ❣❡♥❡r✐❝ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ t♦ ♦❧ ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❧♦ ♦❦ ❛t ✐ts
❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s ❢❛❝❡❞ ❜ ② s♦ ❝✐❛❧ s❝✐❡♥❝❡✱ ❛♥❞ ❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧② ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ș♥
❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✱ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ❞✐st✐♥❣✉✐s❤ ❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ❜r❛♥❝ ❤ ♦❢ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❛❣❡♥ t
❜❛s❡❞ ❝♦♠♣✉t❛t✐♦♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✱ t❤❛t tr② t♦ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ❡♠❡r❣❡♥ t ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛ ✉s✐♥❣ ♠ ✉❧t✐✲
❛❣❡♥ t t♦ ♦❧s✳ ●♦ ♦ ❞ ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♣ts✱ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤❡s ❛♥❞ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s ♦❢
❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❝♦♠♣✉t❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✱ ❛r❡ ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❢r♦♠ ✭ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✻❜ ✮✱
✭ ❊♣st❡✐♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✻ ✮✱✭ ❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦ ♦ ✱ ✷✵✶✷ ✮✱ ✭ ❉❡r✈ ❡❡✉ ✇ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✼❛ ✮✱ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❇❡❛✉✜❧s ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱
✷✵✵✾ ✮✳
✹✳✷✳✷ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s
❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♠❛ ② ❜ ❡ ✉s❡❞ ✐♥ ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ✇❤❡r❡ ❡♠❡r❣❡♥ t ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛ ❛r❡
❢♦✉♥❞✳ ❲❤❡♥ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s✐♥❣ s✉❝ ❤ ❛ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ t♦ ♦❧✱ ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t♦ s❡❛r❝ ❤ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛t✐❝
❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ♦❢ t❤❡ s②st❡♠s t❤❛t ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ❜ ❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧❡❞✿
✶✳ ❙✐♠♣❧❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣✐♥❣ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s ❞♦ ♥♦t ✇ ♦r❦✳ ❙②st❡♠s ❡①❤✐❜✐t t❤❡ ♠♦st
✐♥ t❡r❡st✐♥❣ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r✐t✐❡s ✐♥ ❡①tr❡♠❡ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣✐♥❣ ♠❛ ② ❤✐❞❡ s✉❝ ❤
❡✈ ❡♥ ts✳
✷✳ ș♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs ❝❛♥♥♦t ❜ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ ❜ ② s✐♠♣❧❡ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥s ♦r ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t✐❛❧
❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s✳ ș♥st❡❛❞✱ t❤❡s❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs ❛r❡ ❜ ❡st ♠♦ ❞❡❧❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥✲❛❝t✐♦♥

✹✳✷✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✺✼
r✉❧❡s ✭❡①✿ t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞s ❢♦r ❝ ❤❛♥❣✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣❛tt❡r♥ ♦❢ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✱ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ✐♥♣✉t ✲
s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ❛❝t✐♦♥✱ r❛r❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs ♦r ❜ ♦rr♦ ✇✐♥❣ ♦❢ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❢r♦♠ ♦t❤❡r ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉✲
❛❧s✮✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❡①❤✐❜✐t ♥♦♥✲❧✐♥❡❛r ✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ ❤❛ ✈ ❡
♠❡♠♦r② ✳ ✭ ❍✉❛♥❣ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✵ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ✷✵✵✺❜ ✮ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❛♥ ❛tt❡♠♣t ❛t
❡①♣❧❛✐♥✐♥❣ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ✉s✐♥❣ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❛♥❞ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈ ❡ ❤❡t❡r♦✲
❣❡♥❡✐t ② ✳
✸✳ ❈♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ♦❢ t❤❡ s②st❡♠s ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t ❧♦ ❝❛❧❧② ✱ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ♥♦♥✲❤♦♠♦❣❡♥♦✉s t♦♣ ♦❧♦✲
❣✐❡s ✭❧✐❦ ❡ ❛ s❝❛❧❡✲❢r❡❡ t♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ✲ s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✹✳✷ ✮✳ ❙❧✐❣❤ t ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s ✐♥ t❤❡
s②st❡♠✬s t♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ❧❡❛❞s t♦ ✈ ❡r② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡❞ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs ❡✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ t❤❡ ✐♥✲
❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s ❛r❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡✳
✹✳ ❚❤❡ ❡♠❡r❣❡♥ t ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ s②st❡♠ ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❡✈✐❞❡♥ t ✐❢ ✇ ❡ ❧♦ ♦❦ ❛t ✐ts ✐♥❞✐✲
✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥s✳
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✹✳✷✿ ✭❆✮ ❈❡♥ tr❛❧✐③❡❞ ✭❇✮ ❙❝❛❧❡✲❢r❡❡ ✭❈✮ ❈❧♦s❡❧② ❞✐str✐❜✉t❡❞ ✲ ●r❛♣❤s ✇✐t❤
❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t t♦♣ ♦❧♦❣✐❡s ♦❢ ❝♦♥♥❡❝t✐♦♥s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❡♥ t✐t✐❡s ♦❢ ❛ s②st❡♠
ș♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✹✳✷ ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤r❡❡ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ t♦♣ ♦❧♦❣✐❡s t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ✉s❡❞ t♦ ♠♦ ❞❡❧
✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥ ♣❛tt❡r♥s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ♦❢ ❛ s②st❡♠✳ ❚❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥
❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡♥ ✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ✇❤❡♥ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥✐♥❣ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs✳ ❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥
❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ❛ ♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❜❛♥❦✐♥❣ s❡❝t♦r ❛s ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ♦r❣❛♥✐③❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ❝❡♥ tr❛❧✐③❡❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✭s❡❡
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✹✳✷ ❆✮✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡✱ t❤❡ ❝❡♥ tr❛❧ ♥♦ ❞❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛♥❦✐♥❣ s❡❝t♦r ❝❛♥ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t
t❤❡ ❝❡♥ tr❛❧ ❜❛♥❦✳ ❲✐t❤ t❤✐s r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❛t✐♦♥ ✐t ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ❜ ❡ ❡❛s② t♦ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r t❤❛t t❤❡
♦♥❧② s♦✉r❝❡ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝♦♥ t❛❣✐♦♥ ✭♦r ❝❛s❝❛❞✐♥❣ ❜❛♥❦r✉♣t❝②✮ ✐s t❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡ ❝❡♥ tr❛❧
❜❛♥❦✳ ❋ ♦r ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ s✐♠♣❧✐❝✐t ② ✱ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ❧✐❦ ❡ t❤❡ ❊r❞♦s ❘❡②♥✐✶r❛♥❞♦♠ ❣r❛♣❤✲
♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ✉s❡❞✳ ❊✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ t❤❡s❡ r❛♥❞♦♠ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ❛r❡ ♠♦r❡ s✐♠♣❧❡ t♦ ❤❛♥❞❧❡ t❤❡② ❞♦
✶s❡❡ ✭ ❊r❞♦✬s ❛♥❞ ❘❡♥ ②✐ ✱ ✶✾✻✵ ✮ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♦r✐❣✐♥❛❧ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❊r❞♦s✲❘❡②♥✐ r❛♥❞♦♠ ❣r❛♣❤
♠♦ ❞❡❧

✺✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
♥♦t ♠❛♥❛❣❡ t♦ ❝❛♣t✉r❡ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡①✐t ② ♦❢ r❡❛❧ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥ ♣❛tt❡r♥s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❜❛♥❦s✳
ș♥ r❡❛❧ ❜❛♥❦✐♥❣ s❡❝t♦rs✱ ❛s r❡♣ ♦rt❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ●❛❧❜✐❛t✐ ❛♥❞ ❙♦r❛♠❛❦✐ ✱ ✷✵✵✽ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ●❛❧❜✐❛t✐
❛♥❞ ❙t❛♥❝✐✉✲❱✐③✐t❡✉ ✱ ✷✵✶✸ ✮✱ ❜❛♥❦ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ❜ ❡tt❡r ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ ❜ ② ✱ s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡
✹✳✷ ❇✱ s❝❛❧❡✲❢r❡❡ ♥❡t ✇ ♦r❦s ✭s♦♠❡ ❜❛♥❦s t❡♥❞ t♦ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♠ ✉❝ ❤ ♠♦r❡ ❝♦♥♥❡❝t✐♦♥s t❤❛♥
♦t❤❡r ❜❛♥❦s t❤ ✉s ❝r❡❛t✐♥❣ ♠♦r❡ ♣ ♦✐♥ ts ♦❢ ❝♦♥ t❛❣✐♦♥✮✳ ❖❢ ❝♦✉rs❡✱ s❝❛❧❡✲❢r❡❡ ♥❡t ✇ ♦r❦s
❛r❡ ✈ ❡r② ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ❛♥❞ ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ♦❢ ❛ s②st❡♠s ✭❤❡r❡ t❤❡ ❜❛♥❦s✮
❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ tr❛✐t ♦❢ ♣r❡❢❡r❡♥ t✐❛❧ ❛tt❛❝ ❤♠❡♥ t✳ ✣r❡❢❡r❡♥ t✐❛❧ ❛tt❛❝ ❤♠❡♥ t ❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦
❜ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡❞ ✐♥ s♦ ❝✐❛❧ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥s❤✐♣s✱ ✇❤❡r❡ ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡ t❡♥❞ t♦ ❝❧✉st❡r ❛r♦✉♥❞ ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥
✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✭❧✐❦ ❡ t❤❡ ❢❛t❤❡r ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢❛♠✐❧②✮✳ ❖t❤❡r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡s ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥❝❡
♦❢ t♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ❛♥❞ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s ❛r❡ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ ✐♥ ✭ ❙♠❛❧❞✐♥♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱
✷✵✶✷ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❉❡r✈ ❡❡✉ ✇ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✼❜ ✮✳
❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ ✐♥ ✉s❡ s✐♥❝❡ t❤❡ ❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣♠❡♥ t ♦❢ ♠♦ ❞❡r♥ ❝♦♠✲
♣✉t❡rs✳ ❙♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs✬ ❡❛r❧✐❡st ✉s❡s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✜❡❧❞ ♦❢ ❛✉t♦♠♦❜✐❧❡
tr❛✣❝ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s✳ ❙❡❡ ✭ ❙❤❡♥ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✶ ✮ ♦r ✭ ▼❡✐st❡r ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✵ ✮ ❢♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡s ♦❢
r❡❛❧ ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ s✉❝ ❤ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs✳ ❚❤r♦✉❣❤ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s✱ ❝✐t ② ♦✣❝✐❛❧s ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡
✐♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ st♦♣✲❧✐❣❤ t t✐♠✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥✐♥❣✱ r♦✉♥❞❛❜ ♦✉ts✱ ♣r✐♦r✐t ② ♦r ♦♥❡✲
✇ ❛ ② ❧❛♥❡s✳ ❚❤❡s❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s s❤♦ ✇ tr❛✣❝ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✐♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧ st❛t❡s ✭♥♦r♠❛❧ ❞r✐✈✐♥❣
❤♦✉rs✮ ❜✉t ❛❧s♦ ✐♥ ✉♥st❛❜❧❡ st❛t❡s ✭♣ ❡❛❦ ❤♦✉rs✱ ✇❤❡♥ ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡ ❣♦✴r❡t✉r♥ ❢r♦♠ ✇ ♦r❦✮✳
❙✉❝ ❤ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ♦❧ ♣ ❡r♠✐ts ❝✐t ② ♣❧❛♥♥❡rs t♦ t❡st ❛♥❞ ❛❞❛♣t str❡❡t ♣ ♦❧✐❝✐❡s ❜ ❡❢♦r❡
✐♠♣❧❡♠❡♥ t✐♥❣ t❤❡♠ ♦♥ t❤❡ str❡❡ts✳ ș♥ ♠❡❞✐❝✐♥❡✱ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ✉s❡❞ t♦
♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s s✉❝ ❤ ❛s t❤❡ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ✐♠♠ ✉♥❡ s②st❡♠✱ ✐♥✢❛♠♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛✲
♥✐s♠s ♦r t❤❡ s♣r❡❛❞ ♦❢ ❜❛❝t❡r✐❛ ❛♥❞ ✈✐r✉s❡s ✭s❡❡ ✭ ✣ ❛r❛♥❥❛♣ ❡ ❛♥❞ ❙❛❞❛♥❛♥❞ ✱ ✷✵✶✵ ✮ ❢♦r
❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ r❡✈✐❡✇✮✳ ș♥ ❝♦♠♠❡r❝✐❛❧ ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s✱ ❛❣❡♥ ts ❛r❡ ✉s❡❞ t♦ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❧♦❣✐st✐❝ ❛♥❞
s✉♣♣❧② ❝ ❤❛✐♥s ♦r ❝♦♥s✉♠❡r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✳ ș♥ ❝✐✈✐❧ ❝♦♥str✉❝t✐♦♥s✱ ❛❣❡♥ t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛r❡
✉s❡❞ t♦ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡ ♠♦ ✈ ❡♠❡♥ t ♦❢ ❝r♦ ✇❞s ✐♥s✐❞❡ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣s✳ ❚❤❡s❡ r❡s✉❧ts ✇✐❧❧ ✐♠♣r♦ ✈ ❡
❡✈ ❛❝✉❛t✐♦♥ s❛❢❡t ② ✱ ❛s ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ❇♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✾ ✮✱ ❢♦r ❢✉t✉r❡ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣s ✭s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡
✹✳✸ ✮✳

✹✳✷✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✺✾
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✹✳✸✿ ❙✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✢♦✇ ♦❢ ♣❡♦♣❧❡ ❡✈ ❛❝✉❛t✐♥❣ ❛ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣
❖♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦r❡ r❡❝❡♥t ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠✉❧t✐✲❛❣❡♥t s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ✐♥ t❤❡ ✜❡❧❞
♦❢ s♦❝✐❛❧ s❝✐❡♥❝❡s ❛♥❞ ❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧❧② ✐♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ❖✐❧ ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ♥❛t✉✲
r❛❧ r❡s♦✉r❝❡s ♣r♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❝❡ss❡s ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ♠♦❞❡❧❡❞ ✐♥ s✉❝❤ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs✳ ș♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✱
❛❣❡♥t s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs ❛r❡ ♥♦✇ ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ t♦♦❧s s✉♣♣♦rt✐♥❣ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✐♥
✐ts ♣❛t❤ t♦✇❛r❞s r❡❝r❡❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♠❛♥♥❡r ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝❤ r❡s❡❛r❝❤❡rs t❤✐♥❦ ❛♥❞ ✈✐❡✇ ✜♥❛♥✲
❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐sts ❛r❡ ❛❧r❡❛❞② ✉s✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs ❢♦r ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t
♣✉r♣♦s❡s✿ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ st❛t❡s✱ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦❢
❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ♠❛❝r♦❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ♣♦❧✐❝✐❡s ❛♥❞ r❡❝❡♥t❧② t♦ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ s②st❡♠✐❝ r✐s❦s✳ ❚❤✐s ❛♣✲
♣r♦❛❝❤ ✐♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s✱ ✉s✉❛❧❧② ✐♥❝❧✉❞✐♥❣ ❣❛♠❡ t❤❡♦r② ✱ ✐s ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s✳
✭❋ ❡✐❝❤t✐♥❣❡r ✱ ✶✾✾✶ ✮✱✭ ❇❡❛✉✜❧s ❛♥❞ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ✷✵✵✺ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❊♣st❡✐♥ ❛♥❞ ❆①t❡❧❧ ✱ ✶✾✾✻ ✮
❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ❡❝♦♥♦♠② ✱ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ ♠❡t❤♦❞s t❤❛t s❤♦✉❧❞
❜❡ ✉s❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❤♦✇ t❤❡s❡ ❝❛♥ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ♣✉③③❧❡s t❤❛t ✇❤❡r❡ ♥♦t ②❡t s♦❧✈❡ ✉s✐♥❣ tr❛❞✐t✐♦♥❛❧
r❡s❡❛r❝❤ t♦♦❧s✳
ș♥ ❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡s❡❛r❝❤✱ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs ❛r❡ ✉s❡❞ t♦ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❡
❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❡♥❛❜❧❡ ✭♦r ♥♦t✮ ♠❛r❦❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✱ s❡❡ ✭ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✻❛ ✮✱
t❤❡ ♣♦❧❛r✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ✇❡❛❧t❤✱ s❡❡ ✭ ❇♦tt❛③③✐ ❛♥❞ ❆♥♦✉❢r✐❡✈ ✱ ✷✵✵✹ ✮ ♦r t❤❡ ❛❣❣r❡✲
❣❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥t♦ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❋ ♦r ❛♥ ❡①❝❡❧❧❡♥t r❡✈✐❡✇ ✇❡ r❡❝♦♠♠❡♥❞ ✭ ❚ ❡s❢❛ts✐♦♥ ✱
✷✵✵✻❜ ✮✱✭ ❊♣st❡✐♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✻ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦♦ ✱ ✷✵✶✷ ✮✳ ✭ ❇✳ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✽ ✮ ♠❛❦❡s ❛ ♠♦r❡ ❣❡♥✲
❡r❛❧ ❛ss❡ss♠❡♥t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡①✐t② ❛s♣❡❝ts ♦❢ ♠♦❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s②st❡♠s t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❜❡
❜❡tt❡r ✉♥❞❡rst♦♦❞ ✇✐t❤ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ t♦♦❧s✳
✹✳✷✳✸ ❆ ❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ♦❢ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡
❈❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ♠❡t❤♦❞s t❤❛t t❡st ♠❛r❦❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ❤❛✈❡ t❤❡ ♠❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ✐ss✉❡ ❝❛❧❧❡❞
t❤❡ ❥♦✐♥t ❤②♣ ♦t❤❡s✐s ♣r ♦❜❧❡♠ ✳ ❚❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ✐❞❡❛ ♦❢ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✐s t❤❛t ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s

✻✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
r❡✢❡❝t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ❛♥❞ t❤✐s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ t❡st❡❞ ♦♥❧② ✐❢ ✇ ❡ ❛❝t✉❛❧❧②
❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ ❛ ♠♦ ❞❡❧
❢♦r t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✭✇❤✐❝ ❤ t❤❡② ❛ss✉♠❡ ✐s ❝♦rr❡❝t✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡♥ r❡s♦❧✈ ❡ t♦ s❡❡ ✐❢ t❤❡
♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❝♦♥ ✈ ❡r❣❡s t♦ t❤❡ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧❧② ❝♦rr❡❝t ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ♦r ♥♦t✳ ❚❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✐❞✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡
❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② t❡st ✐s ❧✐♥❦ ❡❞ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✐❞✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡ ❥♦✐♥ t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳ ș♥ ❛♥
❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ t❤❡ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ ✉s❡❞ t♦ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ t❤❡ st♦ ❝ ❦✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐s ❛①✐♦♠❛t✐❝❛❧❧② ❝♦rr❡❝t✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡r ❤❛s t♦ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡ ✇ ❛ ②s ✐♥
✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ❝❛♥ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ❛♥ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ♦✉t♣✉t ✭❧✐❦ ❡ t❤❡
♣r✐❝❡✮ ❡✈ ❡♥ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡② ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳
❲ ❡ ❧✐st ❛♥❞ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ s♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦st ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✲
✉❧❛t♦r r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤✿
• ❆tt❛✐♥❛❜✐❧✐t② ✿ ❆s ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ ✐♥ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳✼ ✱ ❛ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② st❛t❡ ✐♥ ❛
♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠❛ ② ❜ ❡ tr✉❡ ❜✉t ♥♦t ♥❡❝❡ss❛r✐❧② ❛tt❛✐♥❛❜❧❡ ✭❛t ❧❡❛st ♥♦t ♦♥ t✐♠❡ s❝❛❧❡s
♦❢ ✐♥ t❡r❡st✮✳ ❯s✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ s❤♦ ✇ ❤♦ ✇✱ st❛rt✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ❛
♣❧❛✉s✐❜❧❡ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t st❛t❡✱ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❝❛♥ r❡❛❝ ❤ ✭st❡♣ ❜ ② st❡♣✮ ❛♥
❡✣❝✐❡♥ t st❛t❡ ✭✐❢ ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡✮✳
• ❈❛✉s❛❧✐t② ✿ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐st✐❝ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧②
♦❜s❡r✈ ❛❜❧❡✱ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❛❝❝✉r❛t❡ ✬❝❡t❡r✐s ♣❛r✐❜✉s✬ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡
t❤❡ ❝❛✉s❛❧ ❧✐♥❦s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ♠✐❝r♦ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ t❤❡✐r ❞❡s✐r❡❞ ❛❣❣r❡✲
❣❛t❡ st❛t❡s✳
• ❋❧❡①✐❜✐❧✐t② ✿ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡ ✉s❡❞ ✐♥ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
✭❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♣r♦❣r❛♠♠✐♥❣ ❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡✮ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥s ✭❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧② t❤♦s❡
✉s❡❞ ❢♦r ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✮ ✐s ❡❛s✐❧② ♠♦ ❞✐✜❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❛❞❛♣t❡❞ t♦
❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♥❡❡❞s✳ ❚❤✐s ✢❡①✐❜✐❧✐t ② ❛❧❧♦ ✇s r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs t♦ ❡❛s✐❧② ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥s
♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭♦r ♦❢ ♦t❤❡r ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts✮ t♦ ❜ ❡tt❡r r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t t❤❡ r❡❛❧✐t✐❡s
♦❢ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛♥❞ t❤❡✐r ❝♦♥ t❡①t✳
• ◆♦r♠❛t✐✈❡ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞✐♥❣ ✿ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧❡❞ t♦ ❛❞❛♣t ❛♥❞
r❡❛❝t t♦ t❤❡ ❡♥ ✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥ t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ✭❡✳❣✳ t❛①❡s✱ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥ ❝♦sts✮ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥
♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❡♠❡r❣❡♥ t ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✉♥❞❡r ❛ ❞✐✈ ❡rs❡ s❡t ♦❢ ♥♦r♠s ❛♥❞
r❡❣✉❧❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ♠❛❦ ❡ ✬s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞✬ ❡①♣ ❡r✐♠❡♥ ts ✇✐t❤ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t
r❡❣✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ✐❢ t❤❡ ❞❡s✐r❡❞ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ r❡s✉❧ts ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❛❝ ❤✐❡✈ ❡❞ ❛♥❞
✐♥ ✇❤❛t t✐♠❡ ❢r❛♠❡s✳
• ❚ r ❛♥s♣ ❛r ❡♥❝② ✭❖❜s❡r✈❛❜✐❧✐t②✮ ✿ ❚❤r♦✉❣❤✲♦✉t ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts
❛♥❞ t❤❡✐r st❛t❡s ❛r❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛❜❧❡✳ ❚❤✐s ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡s t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ♦❜✲
s❡r✈✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥ tr♦❧❧✐♥❣ ✈ ❡r② s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ♣❛rts ♦❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳
❆ ❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ ✭ ❈❛♠♣❜ ❡❧❧ ✱ ✷✵✵✵ ✮✱ ✧❇❡❤❛✈✐♦r ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ❝ ❛♥♥♦t ❜ ❡ t❡st❡ ❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛❣✲
❣r ❡ ❣❛t❡ ❝ ♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❜ ❡ ❝ ❛✉s❡ r ❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✉t✐❧✐t②✲♠❛①✐♠✐③✐♥❣ ✐♥✲
✈❡st♦rs ♥❡✐t❤❡r ❝ ♦♥s✉♠❡ ❛❣❣r ❡ ❣❛t❡ ❝ ♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ✭s♦♠❡ ✐s ❛❝ ❝ ♦✉♥t❡ ❞ ❢♦r ❜② ♥♦♥st❛♥✲
❞❛r ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✮ ♥♦r ❤♦❧❞ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ✭✐♥st❡ ❛❞ t❤❡② s❤✐❢t ✐♥ ❛♥❞ ♦✉t ♦❢ t❤❡

✹✳✸✳ ❚ ♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✻✶
st♦ ❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡t✮✧ ✳ ❙♦✱ ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ t❡st s✉❝ ❤ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ✇ ❡ r❡q✉✐r❡ ❞❡t❛✐❧❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ ❡❛❝ ❤ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ t✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ s✉❝ ❤ ♣r✐✈ ❛t❡ ✐♥✲
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❝♦♥✜❞❡♥ t✐❛❧ ❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t❡ ✐s ✉s✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs✳ ș♥ ❛
❧❛❜ ♦r❛t♦r② s❡tt✐♥❣✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❝❛♥ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ q✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈ ❡ ❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣❡ ❛❜ ♦✉t
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s✳ ❚ ♦ ♦❜t❛✐♥ q✉❛♥ t✐t❛t✐✈ ❡ r❡s✉❧ts ✇ ❡ ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ❧✐♥❦ s✉❝ ❤
❛ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✇✐t❤ r❡❛❧ ❞❛t❛ t❤❛t ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ✉s❡❞ ❢♦r t❤❡ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ ♠✐❝r♦✲s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡
♠♦ ❞❡❧✬s ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts✳
❆❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛❧s♦ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❧✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥s ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✇ ❡ ♠ ✉st t❛❦ ❡
✐♥ t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥ t✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ✇ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡ ❛♥ ❡♥ t✐r❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ ❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✇✐❧❧ ✉♥❛ ✈ ♦✐❞❛❜❧②
❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ ❤✐❣❤ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✳ ❙✐♥❝❡ s♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛r❡ ❤❛r❞ ✭❡✈ ❡♥
✐♠♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡✮ t♦ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ✐♥ r❡❛❧✐t ② ✱ ✇ ❡ ❛r❡ ❢♦r❝❡❞ t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✳ ▲✐❦ ❡ t❤❡
❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ❛r❡ t❤❡ ❜❛s❡ ♦❢ ❛ t❤❡♦r② ✱ ♦✉r ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛r❡ t❤❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s
✇ ❡ ♠❛❦ ❡ ✇✐t❤✐♥ ♦✉r ❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳ ❚❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✐❞✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✐s ❛ ❝r✉❝✐❛❧
❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ❢♦r t❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✐❞✐t ② ♦❢ ♦✉r r❡s✉❧ts✳
✭ ❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦ ♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✶ ✮✱ ✭ ❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦ ♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✵ ✮ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ✐♥ ❞❡t❛✐❧ ❛♥❞ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡
❡①❛♠♣❧❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ✐ss✉❡s t❤❛t ♠ ✉st ❜ ❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ ✇❤❡♥ ❝r❡❛t✐♥❣ r❡❛❧✐st✐❝ ❛❣❡♥ t
❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳
❘♦❜✉st♥❡ss ❝ ❤❡❝ ❦s ❛♥❞ ❝♦ ❞❡ ✈ ❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ ❛r❡ r❡q✉✐r❡❞ t♦ ❡♥s✉r❡ t❤❛t r❡s✉❧ts ♦❢
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ♥♦t t❤❡ ♣r♦ ❞✉❝t ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛♥❝❡ ♦r ❞❡s✐❣♥❡r ✐♥ t❡r✈ ❡♥ t✐♦♥✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ ✇❤❡♥
❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ ♠✐❝r♦✲❧❡✈ ❡❧ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ✭✐♥ ✈ ❡st ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✱ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❣❡♥❡r❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❞✐ss❡♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥✮ ✐t ✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t t♦ r❡st ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ♥♦t ✉s❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s
t❤❛t ❞✐r❡❝t❧② ✐♥❝♦r♣ ♦r❛t❡ t❤❡ ❝❛✉s❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ s❡❛r❝ ❤❡❞✲❢♦r ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛✳ ❚❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ❞✐✛❡r✲
❡♥ t ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤❡s t♦ t❡st✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ✉s❡❞✳ ✭ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ❛♥❞ ▼❛t❤✐❡✉ ✱ ✷✵✵✼ ✮ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡
❛ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t✉❛❧ ❢r❛♠❡✇ ♦r❦ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❡✈ ❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❡❝ ❤♥✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❛♥❞ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞
tr❛❞✐♥❣✳
✹✳✸ ❚ ♦♣♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs
❚ ♦ ❜ ❡tt❡r ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❛♥❞ ❞✐st✐♥❣✉✐s❤ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛✲
t♦rs ✭❆❇❋▼❙✮ ✇ ❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ ❛ t❛①♦♥♦♠ ② ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡s t❤❡ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❞❡s✐❣♥ ❡❧❡♠❡♥ ts
♦❢ ❛♥ ❆❇❋▼❙✳ ❲ ❡ st❛rt❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ s❤♦rt ❝❧❛ss✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡❞ ❜ ② ▲❡❇❛r♦♥ ✐♥ ✭ ❚ ❡s✲
❢❛ts✐♦♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✻❛ ✮✳ ❲ ❡ ❡①♣❛♥❞ t❤✐s t ②♣ ♦❧♦❣② ✇✐t❤ ♥❡✇ ❝❧❛ss✐✜❡rs t❤❛t s❤❡❞ ♠♦r❡ ❧✐❣❤ t
♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ❞❡s✐❣♥ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❆❇❋▼❙✳
❆♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ ts ❛♥ ❛❜str❛❝t ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r✐③❡❞
✈ ❡rs✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ șts ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ✐s t♦ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❛♥❞ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ ❛❝❝❡ss t♦
t❤❡ ❝❛✉s❛❧ ❧✐♥❦s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❡❧❡♠❡♥ ts ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✭♦r ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ❜ ❡✲
❤❛ ✈✐♦r✮ ❛♥❞ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ s❡❝✉r✐t✐❡s ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❚❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤✐s s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞
s②st❡♠ ✇ ❡ ♦❜t❛✐♥ ♥❡✇ ❤ ②♣ ♦t❤❡s❡s ❢♦r t❤❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✲ ❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧②
❢♦r t❤❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❜ ② st❛♥❞❛r❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s ❛♥❞ ♠♦ ❞✲
❡❧s✳ ❲ ❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ ❛ ♥❡✇ s❡t ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s t♦ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡ ❛♥❞ ❞✐st✐♥❣✉✐s❤ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥
❆❇❋▼❙✳ ❊❛❝ ❤ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s r❡♣r❡s❡♥ ts ❛ ❜❛s✐❝ ❞❡s✐❣♥ q✉❡st✐♦♥ t❤❛t ♦♥❡

✻✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
♠✉st ❛♥s✇❡r ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ❜✉✐❧❞ ❛ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r✳ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤❡rs tr② t♦ ❜✉✐❧❞ ♣❛rs✐♠♦♥✐♦✉s
♠♦❞❡❧s ♦❢ t❤❡ r❡❛❧✐t② ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❆❇❋▼❙ t❤❡② str✉❣❣❧❡ t♦ ✜♥❞ ❛ s♠❛❧❧
♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs t❤❛t ❝♦♥tr♦❧s t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ❜✐❣ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ r❡❛❧ ❢❡❛t✉r❡s
♦❢ ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ✭ ▼❛t❤✐❡✉ ❛♥❞ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ✷✵✶✵ ✮✱✭ ❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱
✷✵✶✶ ✮✱✭ ❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✵ ✮ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡ ❤✐♥ts ❢♦r ❛ ❣❡♥❡r✐❝ ♠♦❞❡❧ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r✲
❦❡ts t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ r ❡ ❛❧✐st✐❝ ♠❛r❦❡t s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s✳
❇② ❞❡❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✱ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs t❡♥❞ t♦ ❜❡❝♦♠❡ ♠♦r❡ ❛❜✲
str❛❝t✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ✇❛② ✱ t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ❞❡s✐❣♥ ✐❣♥♦r❡s ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ❛s♣❡❝ts ✇❤✐❝❤
♠❛② ❜❡ ❝r✉❝✐❛❧ ❢♦r ❝r❡❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❧✐♥❦ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ r❡❛❧
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✳
✹✳✸✳✶ ◆♦t❛❜❧❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs
❲ ❡ ♣r❡s❡♥t t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ❝❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ♦❢ s✐① ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs
t❤❛t ❤❛✈❡ ❜❡❡♥ ♦❢t❡♥ q✉♦t❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡✳
❚❤❡ ✬❙❛♥t❛ ❋❊✬ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡t✱ ✭ ▲❡❜❛r♦♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✷ ✮ ❜✉✐❧t ❜② ❇❧❛❦❡ ▲❡❇❛r♦♥✱
❆rt❤✉r ❲✳❇ ❛♥❞ ❈❛❧♠❡r ❘✱ ✐s ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✜rst ♠✉❧t✐✲❛❣❡♥t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs✳ ❆s
✐♥✐t✐❛❧❧② ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs✱ ✬❛♥ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t❛❧ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r s✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡t✬✱
t❤❡✐r ♠♦❞❡❧ ✇❛s ❝r❡❛t❡❞ t♦ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ❛♥❞ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ♦❢
♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ❝r❡❛t❡❞ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇❤❡r❡ ♠✐♥✐✲❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♣r♦❣r❛♠s✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞
❛❣❡♥ts✱ ❝♦✉❧❞ ✐♥✈❡st t❤❡✐r ✇❡❛❧t❤ ✐♥ ❛ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❝♦♥s✐st✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❛ r✐s❦✲❢r❡❡ ❜♦♥❞ ✭✇✐t❤ ❛
❝♦♥st❛♥t r❡t✉r♥✮ ❛♥❞ ❛ r✐s❦② st♦❝❦ t❤❛t ❤❛s ❛ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❢♦❧❧♦✇s ❛♥ ❛✉t♦r❡❣r❡s✲
s✐✈❡ ♣r♦❝❡ss✳ ❆❣❡♥ts ❛r❡ ❛ss✉♠❡❞ t♦ ❜❡ ♠②♦♣✐❝ ✇✐t❤ ♦♥❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ❝♦♥st❛♥t ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡
r✐s❦ ❛✈❡rs✐♦♥ ✭❈❆❘❆✮ ❛♥❞ s❤❛r✐♥❣ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r✐s❦ ❛✈❡rs✐♦♥ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥t✳ ❚❤❡
❛❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥ts ❤❛✈❡ ❛s ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈❡ t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞
✉t✐❧✐t② ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠✿
ˆEi
t(−e−γ∗Wi
t+1) ✭✹✳✶✮
✇❤❡r❡γ ✐s t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ts s❤❛r❡❞ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r✐s❦ ❛✈❡rs✐♦♥ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥t✱ ❛♥❞ Wi
t+1 ✐s ❛❣❡♥t✬s
✐ ❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ ✇❡❛❧t❤ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t ♣❡r✐♦❞✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t ✇❡❛❧t❤ ❛t t✐♠❡ t✰✶ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡s
❤✐s ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t ❛t t✐♠❡ t✱ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤✐s ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥
❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ❛❣❡♥t✳ ❚❤❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s ✐♥ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ts✬ ❞❡♠❛♥❞s ❛r❡ s❡t ❜② t❤❡✐r ❢♦r❡❝❛st ♦❢ t❤❡
❢✉t✉r❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ st♦❝❦✬s ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞✳ ❚ ♦ ♠❛❦❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r✐❝❡s✱
❛❣❡♥ts ♠❛✐♥t❛✐♥ s❡ts ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✬❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥✲❢♦r❡❝❛st✬ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛r❡ r✉❧❡s t❤❛t
♠❛♣ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ✭❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ♦r t❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮ t♦ ❛ ❢♦r❡✲
❝❛st r✉❧❡ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♠❛r❦❡t st❛t❡✳ ❯s✐♥❣ ❣❡♥❡t✐❝ ❛❧❣♦r✐t❤♠s ❛❣❡♥ts ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡ ❛♥❞
❝r❡❛t❡ s✉❝❤ ❢♦r❡❝❛st✐♥❣ r✉❧❡s ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ♠❛❦❡ ❛❝❝✉r❛t❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r✐❝❡s✳
❚❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s s❡t ❡♥❞♦❣❡♥♦✉s❧② ❜② ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ❝❧❡❛r✐♥❣ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠ t❤❛t r❡s♦❧✈❡s
❛❣❡♥t ❞❡♠❛♥❞s ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ❛ ✜①❡❞ s✉♣♣❧② ♦❢ st♦❝❦s✳ ❖❜s❡r✈✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ t✐♠❡
s❡r✐❡s✱ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ❝♦♥❝❧✉❞❡ t❤❛t s✉❝❤ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ♠♦❞❡❧ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡s s✐♠✐❧❛r st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧
♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ✇✐t❤ t❤♦s❡ ♦❢ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s ✭❡✳❣✳ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ✱ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❛❜✐❧✐t②✮✳

✹✳✸✳ ❚ ♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✻✸
▼♦r❡ ✐♥t❡r❡st✐♥❣❧② ✱ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♣♦✐♥t ♦✉t t❤❛t t❤❡ ❤♦r✐③♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥t ❢♦r❡❝❛sts ✭t❤❡
❧♦♥❣❡r t❤❡ ❜❡tt❡r✮ ✐s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ✐♥ ❛❝❤✐❡✈✐♥❣ ♦r ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤✐♥❣ ❛ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧❧② ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞
❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠✳ ❚❤✐s ♠❛r❦❡t ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐s ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✜rst ❝♦♠♣❧✐❝❛t❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧s ♦❢
❛ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❊✈❡♥ ✐❢ t❤❡❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ♠❛♥❛❣❡s t♦ q✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈❡❧② r❡♣❧✐❝❛t❡ s♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣✉③③❧❡ ✇❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡❞ ✐♥ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✱ ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ t♦ ❜❡ ❛✇❛r❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t②
t❤❛t t❤❡s❡ ❢❡❛t✉r❡s ❛r❡ ❡♠❜❡❞❞❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧s✿ t❤❡
❛✉t♦r❡❣r❡ss✐✈❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❢❛❝t t❤❛t ❛❣❡♥ts✬ ❞❡♠❛♥❞s ✭❛♥❞ ❝♦♥✲
s❡q✉❡♥t❧② ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r✐❝❡s✮ ❛r❡ ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ts✬ ❢♦r❡❝❛sts ♦❢ ❢✉t✉r❡ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t②
✭✇❤✐❝❤ ✐s s✐♠♣❧✐✜❡❞ t♦ ❡q✉❛❧ ♣❛st ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t②✮✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ❞❡s✐❣♥ ♦❢ ♦✉r ♠❛r❦❡t ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ ❛❝✲
t✐✈❡❧② ❧♦♦❦❡❞ ♥♦t t♦ ♠❛❦❡ ❛♥② ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❞✐r❡❝t❧② ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ t❤❡ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s
♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ✇❡ ❛r❡ ❧♦♦❦✐♥❣ ❢♦r✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ✇r✐tt❡♥ ❛ s❡q✉❡❧ ❛rt✐❝❧❡✱ ✭ ▲❡❜❛r♦♥ ✱
✷✵✵✷ ✮ ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝❤ t❤❡② ❞r❛✇ ❛tt❡♥t✐♦♥ t♦ s♦♠❡ t❤❡ ✐ss✉❡s t❤❛t ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ❜❡ ✐♠♣r♦✈❡❞ ✐♥
t❤❡✐r ♠❛r❦❡t ❞❡s✐❣♥✳
❆ ❚❖▼✷✐s ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s♦❢t✇❛r❡ t♦♦❧✱ t❤❛t ♦✛❡rs ❛ ❣❡♥❡r ❛❧ ❡♥✈✐r ♦♥♠❡♥t ❢♦r ❛❣❡♥t✲
❜ ❛s❡ ❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ st♦ ❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✳ ❆ ❚❖▼ ✐s ♠❛✐♥t❛✐♥❡❞ ❜② ❛ ❥♦✐♥t r❡s❡❛r❝❤ t❡❛♠ ❛t
t❤❡ ▲✐❧❧❡ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ ❋ r❛♥❝❡✸❛♥❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ❙❛r✐s ✶ ❙❛♥t❤❡♦♥ ❙♦r❜♦♥♥❡✹✳
❯♥❧✐❦❡ ♦t❤❡r ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs ✇❡ ♣r❡s❡♥t✱ ❆ ❚❖▼ ✐s ♠♦r❡ ❣❡♥❡r✐❝ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ ❜❡
❛❞❛♣t❡❞ t♦ ❛ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t r❛♥❣❡ ♦❢ r❡s❡❛r❝❤ ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❆ ❚❖▼ ❤❛s t❤❡ ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t② t♦
s✐♠✉❧❛t❡ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✇✐t❤ ♠❛r❦❡t ♠❛❦❡rs ♦r ✇✐t❤ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦s✳ ▼♦r❡♦✈❡r
❆ ❚❖▼ ✇❛s ❞❡s✐❣♥❡❞ t♦ ❛❝❝♦♠♠♦❞❛t❡ ♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦s ❢♦r ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ♦♥❡ ❛ss❡t✱ ♠❛❦✐♥❣
✐t ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢❡✇ ❝✉rr❡♥t s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs ✇✐t❤ t❤✐s ❝❛♣❛❝✐t② ✳ ❋ r♦♠ t❤❡✐r ❝♦❧❧❛❜♦r❛t✐♦♥
✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ◆❨❙❊✲❊✉r♦♥❡①t✱ t❤❡ ❆ ❚❖▼ ❝r❡❛t♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ❞✉♣❧✐❝❛t❡❞ t❤❡ ❊✉r♦♥❡①t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣
♠❡t❤♦❞s ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s✱ ❛s t❤❡ r❡❛❧ st♦❝❦ ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s✱
st❛rt✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♦r❞❡rs ♦❢ ❛ r❡❛❧ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❙✉❝❤ ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t✐❡s
❛r❡ ❡♥❤❛♥❝❡❞ ❜② ❆ ❚❖▼✬s ❝❛♣❛❝✐t② ♦❢ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♥❣ ❡①tr❛✲❞❛② ❛♥❞ ✐♥tr❛✲❞❛② ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✉s
tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣❡r✐♦❞s✳ ❆ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ st✉❞✐❡s✱ ❧✐❦❡ ✭ ❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦♦ ✱✷✵✶✷ ✮✱ ✭ ❉❡r✈❡❡✉✇
❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✼❜ ✮ ♦r ✭ ❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✵ ✮✱ ❤❛✈❡ ❜❡❡♥ ❝♦♥❞✉❝t❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❆ ❚❖▼✳ ❆
❣♦♦❞ r❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ❆ ❚❖▼✬s ❝❛♣❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❢♦✉♥❞ ❛t ✭ ▼❛t❤✐❡✉ ❛♥❞ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱✷✵✶✷ ✮✳
ș♥ ✷✵✵✶✱ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐st ▼❛r❝♦ ❘❛❜❡rt♦ ❛♥❞ ❤✐s ❝♦❧❧❡❛❣✉❡s ♣✉❜❧✐s❤❡❞ ❛♥ ❛rt✐❝❧❡ ❞❡✲
s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ t❤❡✐r ●❊◆❖❆ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡t✱ ✭ ❘❛❜❡rt♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱✷✵✵✶ ✮✳ ❆s t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs
♠❡♥t✐♦♥✱ t❤❡ ❛✐♠ ♦❢ t❤✐s ♠♦❞❡❧ ✇❛s t♦ ✬ ♦✛❡r ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞✐♥❣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❦♥♦✇♥
st②❧✐③❡ ❞ ❢❛❝ts ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s✱ ✐✳❡✳✱ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❢❛t t❛✐❧s ✐♥ t❤❡
❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ s❤♦rt t❡r♠ r ❡t✉r♥s ✬✳ ❚❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡s ❛❣❡♥ts t❤❛t ❞♦♥✬t r❡❝❡✐✈❡
❛♥② ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ♠❛❦❡ ♦✛❡rs t♦ s❡❧❧✴❜✉② ✱ ✐♥ ❡✈❡r② r♦✉♥❞✱ ✇✐t❤ ❛
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② ♦❢ ❙✴✭✶✲❙✮✳ ❖r❞❡rs s❡♥t t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❛r❡ ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡rs ✇✐t❤ ♣r✐❝❡s ❜❛s❡❞
♦♥ ❛ ❢♦r♠✉❧❛ ❧✐❦❡
Pi=p(h)∗Ni(µ,σi)σi=k∗σ(Ti) ✭✹✳✷✮
✇❤❡r❡p(h) ✐s t❤❡ st♦❝❦✬s ♣r✐❝❡ ❛t t✐♠❡ t ❛♥❞ σ(Ti) ✐s t❤❡ st♦❝❦✬s ❤✐st♦r✐❝❛❧ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✲
✷❆ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❢♦r ❧✐♠✐t❡❞ t❡st✐♥❣ ❛t ❤ tt♣✿✴✴❛t♦♠✳✉♥✐✈✲❧✐❧❧❡✶✳❢r
✸❚ ❡❛♠ ❙▼❆ ❈ ▼✉❧t✐✲❛❣❡♥t ❙②st❡♠s ❛♥❞ ❇❡❤❛✈✐♦rs
✹❤ tt♣✿✴✴✇✇✇✳✉♥✐✈✲♣❛r✐s✶✳❢r✴

✻✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
✐t ② ✳ ❆ t ❡❛❝ ❤ ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✱ ❛❣❡♥ ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❞❡♠❛♥❞s t♦ ❜✉② ♦r s❡❧❧ st♦ ❝ ❦s✳ ❚❤❡
r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r❡❞ ❛t t❤❡ ✐♥ t❡rs❡❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ s✉♣♣❧② ❝✉r✈ ❡s✳
❚❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❡①❤✐❜✐ts✱ ✉♥❞❡r ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✱ t❤❡ st ②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts ❢♦✉♥❞ ✐♥ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r✲
❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❚❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts ❛r❡ ♥♦t r♦❜✉st t♦ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ s✐③❡✿ ❛ ❣r❡❛t ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ ts
❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡ t❤❡ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ❢❡❛t✉r❡✳ ❆s ✐t ✇ ❛s t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s❧②
♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ ❙❛♥ t❛ ❋ ❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r✱ t❤❡ ●❊◆❖ ❆ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠❛❦ ❡s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✭❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡r
♣r✐❝❡s ❝♦♠♣✉t❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❤✐st♦r✐❝❛❧ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ②✮ t❤❛t ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡ t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞
r❡s✉❧ts✳
❚❤❡ ❜✉✐❧❞❡rs ♦❢ t❤❡ ●❊◆❖ ❆ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♠❛❞❡ ✐♠♣r♦ ✈ ❡♠❡♥ ts t♦ t❤❡✐r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r✱
✐♥ t ✇ ♦ ♥❡✇ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥s ●❆❙▼✲✷ ❛♥❞ ●❆❙▼✲✸✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ❧❛st ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥✱ ❛✉t❤♦rs ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐❣❛t❡
t❤❡ r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ str❡♥❣t❤ ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❛❣❡♥ t str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✭❜❛s❡❞ ♦r ♥♦t ♦♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❡❝♦✲
♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮✳ ❚❤❡② ❞r❛ ✇ ❛♥ ✐♥ t❡r❡st✐♥❣ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥✱ t❤❛t ❛ str❛t❡❣②✬s s✉❝❝❡ss
❞❡♣ ❡♥❞s✱ ♦♥ r❡❛s♦♥❛❜❧❡ t✐♠❡ s❝❛❧❡s✱ ♦♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✳
ș♥ ✭ ❇r♦ ❝ ❦ ❛♥❞ ❍♦♠♠❡s ✱ ✶✾✾✽ ✮ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ ❛ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❆ ❞❛♣t✐✈ ❡
❇❡❧✐❡❢ ❙②st❡♠✳ ❚❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✉s❡s ❛ r✐s❦ ❢r❡❡ ❛ss❡t ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❝♦♥st❛♥ t r❡t✉r♥ ❛♥❞ ❛ r✐s❦②
❛ss❡t t❤❛t ♣❛ ②s ❛ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞ ✇✐t❤ ș ș❉ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳ ❙✐♠✐❧❛r t♦ t❤❡ ❙❛♥ t❛ ❋ ❡ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ❛❣❡♥ ts
✐♥ t❤✐s ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❛r❡ ❤♦♠♦❣❡♥♦✉s ✐♥ t❤❡✐r ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥❛❧ ✈ ❛r✐❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡② ❛❧❧ tr② t♦ ♠❛①✲
✐♠✐③❡ ❛ ♠ ② ♦♣✐❝ ♠❡❛♥✲✈ ❛r✐❛♥❝❡ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✳ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❢r♦♠ ♦t❤❡r ♠♦ ❞❡❧s✱ t❤❡s❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts
❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t
❞❡♣ ❡♥❞ ♥♦t ♦♥❧② ♦♥ t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡② ♣ ❡r❝❡✐✈ ❡ ❜✉t ❛❧s♦ ♦♥ t❤❡✐r ♦ ✇♥
♣❛st ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡rr♦rs ✭❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ ♣ ❡r❝❡✐✈ ❡❞ ❝♦rr❡❝t ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
r❡❛❧✐③❛t✐♦♥✮✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ❢r❛♠❡✇ ♦r❦ ♦❢ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s✱ ❛❣❡♥ ts ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ✈✐❡✇ ❡❞ ❛s ❜ ❡❧♦♥❣✐♥❣ t♦ ❞✐❢✲
❢❡r❡♥ t t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✭❡✳❣✳ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧✐sts✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ t❤❛t ♣r✐❝❡s
r❡t✉r♥ t♦ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧s✱ ♦r tr❡♥❞✲❝ ❤❛s❡rs t❤❛t ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡s t❤❛♥ t♦ tr❡♥❞✮✳ ❚❤❡
❛❞❛♣t✐✈ ❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ t r❡s✐❞❡s ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t t♦ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ t♦ s✇✐t❝ ❤ ❜ ❡✲
t ✇ ❡❡♥ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✭❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ t♦ ♥♦♥✲❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧✮ ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡
❤✐s ✇ ❡❛❧t❤✳ ❚❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ s♦♠❡ ❝❧✉❡s t♦ ❤♦ ✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❛tt❛✐♥❡❞✳
ș♥ ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❝❛s❡ ♦❢ ❤♦♠♦❣❡♥♦✉s ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s t❤❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐s ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t✳
❲❤❡♥ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s ❛r❡ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s ❞❡♣❛rt✉r❡s ❢r♦♠ ❝♦rr❡❝t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥ t
❛♥❞ ✐t ✐s ♥♦t ♦❜ ✈✐♦✉s t❤❛t s✉❝ ❤ ❞❡♣❛rt✉r❡s ❝❛♥ ❞✐s❛♣♣ ❡❛r ✐♥ ❛ r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥ t ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✱ ♦r ❛s
t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ✐t✿ t❡①t✐t✧t❤❡ ❛♥s✇ ❡r t♦ t❤✐s q✉❡st✐♦♥ s❡❡♠s t♦ ❜ ❡ ♥♦t ❛s ♦❜ ✈✐♦✉s
❛s ♦♥❡ ♠✐❣❤ t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❣✉❡ss❡❞✧✳ șt ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❛r❣✉❡❞ t❤❛t s✐♥❝❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐s ♥♦t ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡
✭❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❛❣❡♥ ts ❝❛♥♥♦t ❜ ♦rr♦ ✇ ♠♦♥❡② ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧ st♦ ❝ ❦s s❤♦rt✮ t❤❛t ❛r❜✐tr❛❣❡ ❛r❡
❧✐♠✐t❡❞✳ ❚❤✐s ❛r❣✉♠❡♥ t ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ♠❛❞❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❢❛ ✈ ♦r ♦❢ ❛♥ ② tr❛❞✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣② ✳ ș❢ ❛ ❣r♦✉♣
t❤❛t ❤♦❧❞s ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢ ❛❜ ♦✉t ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ❜ ♦rr♦ ✇ ❛♥❞ tr❛❞❡ t♦ ♠♦ ✈ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡s
t♦ ✇ ❛r❞s t❤❡✐r ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢ t❤❛♥ t❤❡✐r str❛t❡❣② ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ♣ ♦ ✇ ❡r❢✉❧ ✭❛t ❧❡❛st ✇❤✐❧❡ t❤❡✐r s✉♣♣❧②
♦❢ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ❡♥❞✉r❡s✮✳ ❙✉❝ ❤ ❛ str❛t❡❣② ✇✐❧❧ s✉r✈✐✈ ❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛♥❞ ♥♦t ♥❡❝❡ss❛r✐❧②
t❤❡ str❛t❡❣② t❤❛t ✐s ✧❝♦rr❡❝t✧✳
❆♥♦t❤❡r ✐♥ t❡r❡st✐♥❣ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❤❛s ❜ ❡❡♥ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡❞ ❜ ② ✐♥ ✭ ▼❛t❛ss✐♥✐
❛♥❞ ❋ r❛♥❝✐ ✱ ✷✵✵✶ ✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t t❤❛t ❤❛s ♥♦
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳ ❚ r❛❞✐♥❣ ✐s ❞♦♥❡ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉♦✉s❧② t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❛ ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡r ❜ ♦ ♦❦
✇❤❡r❡ t❤❡ ❜ ❡st ❜✐❞ ✐s ❡①❡❝✉t❡❞ ❛❣❛✐♥st t❤❡ ❜ ❡st ❛s❦ ✭✐❢ ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡✮✳ ❆❣❡♥ ts ❡❛❝ ❤ ❤❛ ✈ ❡

✹✳✸✳ ❚ ♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✻✺
❢❡✇ r❛♥❞♦♠❧② ❞r❛ ✇♥ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✿ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ❣❛✐♥ ❛♥❞ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ❛❝❝❡♣t❡❞
❧♦ss ❜ ❡❢♦r❡ s❡❧❧✐♥❣ t❤❡✐r ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❛ t✐♠❡ t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞ t❤❛t ♣r♦♠♣ts ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t t♦
❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ❤✐s ✐❞❡❛ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ✭✇ ❛✐t t♦ ❧♦♥❣ ❢♦r ❛♥ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ❣❛✐♥ t♦ r❡❛❧✐③❡
❛♥❞ ✐t ✐s ♥♦t ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡✮✳ ❲❤❡♥ s❡♥❞✐♥❣ ❛♥ ♦r❞❡r✱ tr❛❞❡rs ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜❛s❡❞
♦♥ t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ♦❢ t❤r❡❡ s♦✉r❝❡s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✿ ♣ ❡❡r ♣r✐❝❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s✱ ✐♥ t❡r♥❛❧
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❛ss✉r❡s t❤❛t ❛ ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡ ✐s ♠❛✐♥ t❛✐♥❡❞ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❜✐❞s ❛♥❞ ❛s❦s✮
❛♥❞ ❤✐st♦r✐❝❛❧ tr❡♥❞s ❡①tr❛♣ ♦❧❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤✐s ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✐s ❛❜❧❡ t♦ r❡♣r♦ ❞✉❝❡ ❢❛t t❛✐❧s ❛♥❞
✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣✳ ❲❤✐❧st t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ s❡❡♠s r❡❛❧✐st✐❝✱ ❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧② ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ✉s❛❣❡
♦❢ st♦♣ ❛♥❞ ❣❛✐♥ ❧✐♠✐ts✱ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts ❛r❡ ♥♦t r♦❜✉st ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝❡rt❛✐♥
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❝❛♥ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ t❤❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ t❤❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s✳
ș♥ ✭ ▲❡✈② ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✵ ✮ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ t❤❡②
❝❛❧❧ ✬♠✐❝r♦s❝♦♣✐❝ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥✬ ♦❢ ❛ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♠♦ ❞❡❧ t❤❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r
♦❢ t ✇ ♦ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✿ ✬r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✬ ✭❘ș✮ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❝♦♥ ✈ ❡r❣❡s t♦
t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ❛♥❞ ✬❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✬ ✭❊▼❘✮ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡
❛❧r❡❛❞② r❡✢❡❝ts ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❆❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ r✐s❦ ❛ ✈ ❡rs❡ ❛♥❞
✇ ❛♥ t t♦ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ✇ ❡❛❧t❤✳ ❚ ♦ s✐♠♣❧✐❢② t❤✐♥❣s✱ t❤❡
❛✉t❤♦rs ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t ❛❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇ ❛ ♣ ♦ ✇ ❡r ✉t✐❧✐t ② ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠✿
U(W) =W1−α
1−α✭✹✳✸✮
✇❤❡r❡α ✐s t❤❡ r✐s❦ ❛ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r✱ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❢♦r ❛❧❧ ❛❣❡♥ ts✳ ❆❧❧ ❛❣❡♥ ts ♠❛①✐✲
♠✐③❡ t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤✐s ✉t✐❧✐t ② ❜ ② ✜♥❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦rt✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ t♦ ❦ ❡❡♣ ✐♥
r✐s❦✲❢r❡❡ ❝♦♥st❛♥ t r❡t✉r♥ ❛ss❡t ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t ✭✇❤✐❝ ❤ ♣❛ ②s ❛ r❛♥❞♦♠ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞
✇✐t❤ ❛ ❦♥♦ ✇♥ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ❞❡♥s✐t ② ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✮✳ ❆❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤✐s ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ❞✐s✲
tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ❜✉t t❤❡② ❢♦r♠ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r✐❝❡✳ ❙✐♥❝❡
❘ș ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ❞✐✈ ❡r❣❡ ❢r♦♠ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧s ✭❜✉t ❛❧s♦ t❤❛t t❤❡s❡ ♣r✐❝❡s
✇✐❧❧ q✉✐❝ ❦❧② ❝♦♥ ✈ ❡r❣❡ ❜❛❝ ❦ t♦ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧s✮ t❤❡② ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡
●♦r❞♦♥ ❣r♦ ✇t❤ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✿
Et(Pt+1) =Ft+1=Et+1(Dt+2)
rf−g✭✹✳✹✮
❋ r♦♠ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ✹✳✹ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❦♥♦ ✇♥ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥✱ ❘ș ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝♦♠♣✉t❡
t❤❡✐r ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✳ ❇② ❞❡r✐✈✐♥❣ t❤✐s ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡
❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s ❢♦r ❡❛❝ ❤ ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✳ ș♥ ❝♦♥ tr❛st✱ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤✐♥❦ ❛ss❡ts ❛r❡
❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ♣r✐❝❡❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ♥♦ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t✐❡s t♦ ✜♥❞ ✬❜ ❛r ❣❛✐♥ ❛ss❡ts✬ ✳ ❚❤ ✉s t❤❡s❡
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❧♦ ♦❦ ♦♥❧② t♦ ♠❛✐♥ t❛✐♥ t❤❡ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ r✐s❦②
❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♥♦♥✲r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t✳ ❚ ♦ ❞♦ t❤✐s✱ t❤❡② ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❡ ❡①✲❛♥ t❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢
r❡t✉r♥s✳ ❙✐♥❝❡ t❤✐s ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✐s ✉♥❦♥♦ ✇♥ t❤❡② ❝♦♥str✉❝t ✐t ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛t✐♦♥s
♦❢ ♣❛st r❡t✉r♥s ✭❡①✲♣ ♦st ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥✮✱ t❤ ✉s s✉♣♣ ♦s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss t❤❛t ❝r❡❛t❡❞ t❤❡
r❡t✉r♥s ✐s st❛❜❧❡✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❞✐✛❡r ✐♥ t❤❡ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ♣❛st r❡t✉r♥s t❤❡②
✉s❡ t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❢✉t✉r❡ r❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞
r❡t✉r♥ ✭❜✉t t❤✐s ✬r❡t✉r♥ ♠❡♠♦r②✬ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❞♦ ❡s♥✬t ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ✭q✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈ ❡❧②✮ t❤❡

✻✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
r❡s✉❧ts✮✳ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥✱ ❛s ❘ș ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦✱ ❛❧s♦ s♣ ❡❝✐❢② ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s ❢♦r ❡❛❝ ❤
♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✳
/summationdisplay
agentDemand agent(Pt+1) =N ✭✹✳✺✮
❚❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❢♦✉♥❞ s✉❝ ❤ t❤❛t t❤❡ s✉♠ ♦❢ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts✬ ❞❡♠❛♥❞s ❡q✉❛❧s
❛ ❝♦♥st❛♥ t s✉♣♣❧② ♦❢ st♦ ❝ ❦s ✭◆✮✱ ❜ ② s♦❧✈✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡✳ ❲✐t❤ t❤✐s✱ r❛t❤❡r
s✐♠♣❧❡✱ ✬♠✐❝r♦s❝♦♣✐❝✬ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡t t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♠❛♥❛❣❡ t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡
♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s t❤❛t r❡♣❧✐❝❛t❡ ❛❧❧ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✬st ②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts✬ ♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ ✐♥ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✳ ș♥ ❛
♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ♦♥❧② r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ st❛❜❧❡ ❛r♦✉♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ❛♥❞
♥♦ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❛r❡ ♣r❡s❡♥ t✳ ș♥ ❛ ♠♦r❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ t❤❛t ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡s ♦♥❧②
✺✪ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♠❡♠♦r② ♦❢ ♠❂✶✵ ♣❛st r❡t✉r♥s✱ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s
s❤♦ ✇s ❛ ❝②❝❧✐❝ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r t❤❛t ✐s s✐♠✐❧❛r ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐t❤ ❜ ♦ ♦♠s ❛♥❞ ❝r❛s❤❡s✳
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✹✳✹✿ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ❢r♦♠ ✭ ▲❡✈② ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✵ ✮✱ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✼ ♣❛❣❡ ✶✻✷✱ s❤♦ ✇✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
❣❡♥❡r❛t❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐t❤ ✾✺✪ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ ✺✪ ✧❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡rs✧✳
❚❤❡s❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜ ♦ ♦♠✲❝r❛s❤ ❝②❝❧❡s ❛♣♣ ❡❛r ✐♥ ❛ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❛❜❧❡ ♠❛♥♥❡r✿
✶✳ ❋✐rst ❛ s❡r✐❡s ♦❢ ❤✐❣❤ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s ♦ ❝❝✉rs
✷✳ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✉♣ ❞❛t❡ t❤❡✐r ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡①✲❛♥ t❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s
✉s✐♥❣ t❤✐s ♥❡✇ ❤✐❣❤ r❡t✉r♥s
✸✳ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡✐r ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ s✐③❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♥❡✇

✹✳✸✳ ❚ ♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✻✼
❤✐❣❤ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❞r✐✈ ❡s t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❤✐❣❤ ✭❧✐❦ ❡ ❛ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ ❢❡❡❞❜❛❝ ❦
❧♦ ♦♣✮✳
✹✳ ❘❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤✐s ♥♦♥✲❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ r❡❞✉❝❡
t❤❡✐r s❤❛r❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t
✺✳ ❆❢t❡r ❛ ❢❡✇ r♦✉♥❞s ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡s✱ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✉s✉❛❧❧② ❤♦❧❞ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ r✐s❦②
❛ss❡ts✳ ❨ ❡t t❤❡ ❤✐❣❤ r❡t✉r♥s r❡❛❧✐③❡❞ ❛t t❤❡ st❛rt✐♥❣ ♣ ♦✐♥ ts ❛✮ ❛♥❞ ❜✮ ❛r❡ ♥♦t
❜ ❡✐♥❣ r❡❛❧✐③❡❞ ❛♥ ②♠♦r❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs st❛rt t♦ r❡✈✐s❡ t❤❡✐r ❡①✲❛♥ t❡
❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s✳
✻✳ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs st❛rt r❡❞✉❝✐♥❣ t❤❡✐r ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ s❤❛r❡s ✐♥ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡
✐ts r❡t✉r♥s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❤✐❣❤ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ ❛♥ ②♠♦r❡✳ ❚❤❡s❡ r❡❜❛❧❛♥❝✐♥❣ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡
t❤❡ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❢❛❧❧ ✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡s✳
✼✳ ❆s ♣r✐❝❡s ❞❡s❝❡♥❞ t♦ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ ❘ș ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs st❛rt r❡❛❧❧♦ ❝❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡
r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t t♦ t❤❡✐r ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ✭s✐♥❝❡ ✐t ✐s ♥♦t ♦ ✈ ❡r♣r✐❝❡❞ ❛♥ ②♠♦r❡✮✳ ❆❢t❡r✇ ❛r❞s✱
t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ s❡tt❧❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❝②❝❧❡ ❝❛♥ r❡♣ ❡❛t ✐ts❡❧❢ ❢r♦♠ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ❛✮✳ ❉✉r✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❝r❛s❤
❛♥❞ ❛ ❢❡✇ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ❛❢t❡r✇ ❛r❞s✱ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦♥✬t t♦✉❝ ❤ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t s✐♥❝❡
t❤❡✐r ❡①✲❛♥ t❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ r❡t✉r♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✐s ❤✐❣❤❧② ♣ ❡ss✐♠✐st✐❝ ❞✉❡ t♦
t❤❡ r❡❝❡♥ t ♣r✐❝❡ ❝r❛s❤✳
❚❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❜ ♦ ♦♠✲❝r❛s❤ ❝②❝❧❡s ❝❛♥ ♦ ❝❝✉r ✐♥ t❤❡ ♦♣♣ ♦s✐t❡ ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥✳ ❲❤❡♥ ✈ ❡r② ❧♦ ✇
❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s ❛r❡ r❡❛❧✐③❡❞ t❤❡ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t ❧♦ ✇ ❡r r❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞ r❡❞✉❝❡ t❤❡✐r
s❤❛r❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t t❤ ✉s ❞r✐✈✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡s ❞♦ ✇♥✳ ❚❤❡ r✐s❡ ✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡s ✇✐❧❧ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇ ✇❤❡♥
♥❡✇ ❤✐❣❤❡r r❡t✉r♥s ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇✳
❚❤✐s ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❝r✐t✐❝✐③❡❞ ❢♦r s❤♦ ✇✐♥❣ ❛ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❛❜❧❡ ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s t❤❛t ❝❛♥✱
✐♥ r❡❛❧✐t ② ✱ ❜ ❡ ❛r❜✐tr❛❣❡❞ ❛ ✇ ❛ ② ✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♠❛❦ ❡ t❡sts ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♣ ♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❊▼❘
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭✺✪ ♦❢ t❤❡ t♦t❛❧✮ ✇✐t❤ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s ♠❡♠♦r② s♣❛♥s ✭✇✐t❤ ❛ ♠❡❛♥ ♦❢ ✹✵ ♣❛st
r❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞ ❛ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✷✵✮✳ ❚❤❡ r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ♠✐① ❝r❡❛t❡s s❡r✐❡s ♦❢
♣r✐❝❡s ✇✐t❤ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❛♥❞ ❝r❛s❤❡s ❜✉t ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❢r❡q✉❡♥❝② ✱ ✐♥ t❡♥s✐t ② ❛♥❞ ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t
❛r❡ ♥♦t ✭❡❛s✐❧②✮ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❛❜❧❡✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡ ✐t ✐s ❞✐✣❝✉❧t t♦ ❝♦♥❝❡✐✈ ❡ ❛ str❛t❡❣② t❤❛t
❝♦✉❧❞ ❞❡t❡❝t ❛♥❞ ❛r❜✐tr❛❣❡ t❤✐s ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ❛❧s♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐❣❛t❡ t❤❡ r❛t✐♦ ♦❢
✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡② s❤♦ ✇s t❤❛t
❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs s✉r✈✐✈ ❡ ✭❛♥❞ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ♣r♦s♣ ❡r✮ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳
ș♥ ✭ ❋ ❛r♠❡r ❛♥❞ ❏♦s❤✐ ✱ ✷✵✵✵ ✮ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ ❛ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
✇❤❡r❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ ✉♥✐ts t❤❛t ♣r♦ ❝❡ss ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ s❤♦ ❝ ❦s ❛♥❞ ❞✐✛✉s❡
t❤❡s❡ ✐♥♣✉ts ✐♥ t♦ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❞✐st♦rt ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ♠♦ ✈ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛ ✇ ❛ ②
❢r♦♠ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s✳ ❚❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡❞ ❜ ② ❋ ❛r♠❡r ❛♥❞ ❏♦s❤✐ ✉s❡s ❛
♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠❛❦ ❡r t❤❛t ❝♦♠♣✉t❡s t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❜ ② tr②✐♥❣ t♦ ❧♦ ✇ ❡r t❤❡ ❡①❝❡ss ♦❢
♦r❞❡rs ✭t♦ ♦ ♠❛♥ ② ❜✉②✴s❡❧❧ ♦r❞❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❣♦ ❡s ✉♣✴❞♦ ✇♥✮✳ ❚❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥ ts✱
✇❤✐❝ ❤ ♣ ♦♣✉❧❛t❡ t❤✐s ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ ❛r❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡❞ ✐♥ t♦ t ✇ ♦ t ②♣ ❡s✿
✶✳ ❚ r❡♥❞ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇ ❡rs ✭♦r ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts✮✿ t❤❡② ❜❛s❡ t❤❡✐r ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ ✐❞❡❛ t❤❛t t❤❡

✻✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ♠♦✈❡s ✐♥ tr❡♥❞s✳ ❚❤❡ ♦r❞❡rs ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ❛❣❡♥ts ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t②
❛♥❞ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s✳
✷✳ ❱ ❛❧✉❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✿ ❚❤❡② ❜❡❧✐❡✈❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ str❛② ❛✇❛② ❢r♦♠ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s
❛♥❞ t❤❡② tr② t♦ ♣r♦✜t ♦✛ t❤❡s❡ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣✳ ❚❤❡② ❛✐♠ t♦ ❜✉② ✉♥❞❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞
❛♥❞ s❡❧❧ ♦✈❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❱ ❛❧✉❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✉s❡ st❛t❡✲❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t tr✐❣❣❡rs ✭♠❛①✲
✐♠✉♠✴♠✐♥✐♠✉♠ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡✐r ♣❡r❝❡✐✈❡❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✮ ❢♦r
❡♥t❡r✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❡①✐t✐♥❣ ♣♦s✐t✐♦♥s✳
❚❤✐s ♠♦❞❡❧ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡s ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ tr❡♥❞ ❢♦❧❧♦✇❡rs✬ r❡❛❝t✐♦♥
t♦✇❛r❞s ♣❡r❝❡✐✈❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦r r❡t✉r♥ tr❡♥❞s✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♣♦✐♥t ♦✉t t❤❛t ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s
♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ tr❡♥❞ ❢♦❧❧♦✇❡rs✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❞✐✛❡r ✐♥ t❤❡ ❧❡♥❣t❤ ♦❢ tr❡♥❞s t❤❡② ❝❛♥ ♣❡r❝❡✐✈❡✱
❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ✐♥t❡r❡st✐♥❣ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s t❤❛t ❧❡❛❞ t♦ t❤❡ st②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs
❢♦❝✉s ♦♥ t❤❡ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ r❡s♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ❛♥❞ ♦❢t❡♥ tr② t♦ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡
❛♥❛❧②t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧s t❤❛t r❡❞✉❝❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r t♦ ❛ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧✳ ❚❤❡②
❝♦♥❝❧✉❞❡ s❛②✐♥❣ t❤❛t ✇❤❡♥ ♥♦♥✲❧✐♥❡❛r✐t② ❛♣♣❡❛rs ✐♥ t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✬ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r t❤❛♥ ❛
✧r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧✧ ❞♦❡s♥✬t ❡①✐st ♦r ❝❛♥ ♣r♦❞✉❝❡ ❛ ❞✐st♦rt❡❞ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s✳ ❇❡✲
❝❛✉s❡ ♠❛r❦❡t r❡t✉r♥s ❤❛✈❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥s s✉❝❤ ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛ ❝❛♥♥♦t ❜❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡❞ ❜②
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❞r✐✈❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛❧♦♥❡✱ ❤❡♥❝❡ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛r❡ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t❡❞ ❜② ♦t❤❡r t②♣❡s
♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭✇❤✐❝❤ s✉r✈✐✈❡✮✳ ❖♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞r❛✇❜❛❝❦s ♦❢ t❤✐s ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐s✱ ❛s ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡❞ ❜②
t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs✱ t❤❡ ❢❛❝t t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♠❛❦❡r ❤❛s ✐♥✜♥✐t❡ ✐♥✈❡♥t♦r② ❛♥❞ ✐s ♥♦t r✐s❦
❛✈❡rs❡✳
❆❢t❡r r❡✈✐❡✇✐♥❣ ❛ ❢❡✇ ♥♦t❛❜❧❡ ♠✉❧t✐✲❛❣❡♥t s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs ✇❡ ❣♦ t❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥
♠❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❞❡s✐❣♥ ✐ss✉❡s ❛ r❡s❡❛r❝❤❡r ✐s ❢❛❝❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ✇❤❡♥ ✇♦r❦✐♥❣ ✇✐t❤ s✐♠✲
✉❧❛t♦rs✳ ❲ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡ t❤❡ ❞❡t❛✐❧s ❛♥❞ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❡❛❝❤ ♥❡❝❡ss❛r② ♣❛rts ♦❢ ❛ s✐♠✉❧❛✲
t♦r✳ ❊❛❝❤ ❞❡s✐❣♥❡❞ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t ✐s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐t ✐♠♣♦s❡s ❡①♣❧✐❝✐t ❛♥❞ ✐♠♣❧✐❝✐t
s✐♠♣❧✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛❜♦✉t t❤❡ st✉❞✐❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡❛❧✐t② ✳
✹✳✸✳✷ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
❖♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✜rst ❝❤♦✐❝❡s t♦ ❜❡ ♠❛❞❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞❡s✐❣♥ ♦❢ ❛ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ✐s ✐♥ t❤❡ t②♣❡ ♦❢
s✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✿ ❛ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡t✱ ❜♦♥❞s ♠❛r❦❡t✱ st♦❝❦ ♦r ❜♦♥❞ ❞❡r✐✈ ❛t✐✈❡s
♠❛r❦❡t ♦r ❛♥♦t❤❡r t②♣❡ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ș♥ r❡❛❧ ❧✐❢❡✱ t❤❡s❡ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛r❡ ♥♦t ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t
❛♥❞ t❤❡② ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ❡❛❝❤ ♦t❤❡r✳ ș❢ ✇❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t❡ ♦♥❧② ♦♥❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇❡ ❛r❡✱ ✐♥ ❛ ✇❛② ✱
❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡s ♦❢ ♦t❤❡r ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ▼♦st r❡s❡❛r❝❤❡rs ❞❡❢❡♥❞ t❤❡♠s❡❧✈❡s
✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❛r❣✉♠❡♥t t❤❛t t❤❡ ❥♦✐♥t ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ♦❢ ❛ ❜♦♥❞ ❛♥❞ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡t ❝❛❧❧s ❢♦r ❛
t♦♦ ❝♦♠♣❧✐❝❛t❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❡①tr❡♠❡❧② ❞✐✣❝✉❧t t♦ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ♠♦❞❡❧✳ ❈♦♥s❡q✉❡♥t❧② ✱ ♠♦st
st✉❞✐❡s ❢♦❝✉s ♦♥ ♦♥❧② ♦♥❡ t②♣❡ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡t ✭✉s✉❛❧❧② st♦❝❦s✮ ❛♥❞ ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t ♦t❤❡r
♠❛r❦❡ts ❤❛✈❡ ♥♦ ♥♦t✐❝❡❛❜❧❡ ❡✛❡❝ts✳
❲ ❡ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ❢♦r t❤❡ ❧❛❝❦ ♦❢ ❛ ❜♦♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡t t❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❝❡ss✳
ș♠♣❧✐❝✐t❧② ✱ ✇❡ s✉♣♣♦s❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝♦♥❝❡r♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ❛ss❡t✬s ❡❝♦✲
♥♦♠✐❝ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ r✐s❦ ✐s ♣❡r❢❡❝t ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ✲ ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥②✬s ❛ss❡t ✈ ❛❧✉❡
✐s ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② r❡✢❡❝t❡❞ ✐♥ t❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❙✐♥❝❡ ♠♦st ❧✐st❡❞ ❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡s ♦✇♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧

✹✳✸✳ ❚ ♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✻✾
✐♥str✉♠❡♥ ts ✭❛♠♦♥❣ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✇ ❡ ♦❢t❡♥ ✜♥❞ ❜ ♦♥❞s ❛♥❞ t❤❡✐r ❞❡r✐✈ ❛t✐✈ ❡s✮ ✇ ❡ ❛r❡ ❛❝t✉✲
❛❧❧② ❛ss✉♠✐♥❣ t❤❛t ❜ ♦♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛r❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ❛♥❞ t❤❛t t❤❡② ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ♣r✐❝❡ t❤❡s❡
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥str✉♠❡♥ ts✳ ❙✐♠✐❧❛r❧② ✱ ✇ ❡ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ t♦ ✐❣♥♦r❡ t❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡s ♦❢ st♦ ❝ ❦ ❞❡r✐✈ ❛✲
t✐✈ ❡s ♦♥ ♦✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ st♦ ❝ ❦s✳ ❖♥❡ s❤♦✉❧❞ ♠❛❦ ❡ t❤❡ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
✇✐t❤ ❛ ✇ ❛r❡♥❡ss ♦❢ t❤❡ s✐♠♣❧✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ r❡❛❧ ✇ ♦r❧❞ ❛♥❞ s❤♦✉❧❞ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ ❛ ❝❧❡❛r
st❛t❡♠❡♥ t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❧✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ❤✐s ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s✳
✹✳✸✳✸ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ t✐♠❡
❚❤❡ ♣ ❡r❝❡✐✈ ❡❞ ♦r❞❡r ♦❢ ❛ s②st❡♠ ❞❡♣ ❡♥❞s ♦♥ ❤♦ ✇ ❛❜str❛❝t ✐ts ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✐s✳ ▲♦ ♦❦✐♥❣
❛t ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ♦♥ ❛ ② ❡❛r❧② ❜❛s✐s ✇ ❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧❧② ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❣r♦ ✇t❤ ❛♥❞ s♠❛❧❧
✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ✳ ▲♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ❛t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ♦♥ ❛ ♠♦♥ t❤❧② ❜❛s✐s ✇ ❡ s❡❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝
✲ ❛t ❧❡❛st ❤✐❣❤❡r ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❧❡✈ ❡❧s✳ ●♦✐♥❣ ❢✉rt❤❡r ❛♥❞ ❧♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ❛t ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦♥ ❛ ❞❛✐❧②
❜❛s✐s ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ✈ ❡r② ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧❡ r❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞ ❢❛st ❝ ❤❛♥❣✐♥❣ tr❡♥❞s✳
❚❤❡ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ t✐♠❡ ✐s ❝r✉❝✐❛❧ ❢♦r ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r✬s ❞❡s✐❣♥ s✐♠♣❧② ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ❛♥❞ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ ts ♦♥ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t t✐♠❡ s❝❛❧❡s✳
❲ ❡ r❛r❡❧② s❡❡ t❡❝ ❤♥✐❝❛❧ tr❛❞❡rs ♦♥ ❛ t✐♠❡ s❝❛❧❡ ❧❛r❣❡r t❤❛♥ t❤❛t ♦❢ ❛ ✇ ❡❡❦✳ ▲✐❦ ❡✇✐s❡ ✇ ❡
❞♦♥✬t ♦❢t❡♥ ❡♥❝♦✉♥ t❡r ✧❜✉② ❛♥❞ ❤♦❧❞ tr❛❞❡rs✧ ♦♥ ❛♥ ✐♥ tr❛✲❞❛ ② t✐♠❡ s❝❛❧❡✳ ❚❤❡ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡
♦❢ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ t✐♠❡ ✇✐❧❧ ♦❢t❡♥ ✐♠♣ ♦s❡ ❝♦♥str❛✐♥ ts ♦♥ t❤❡ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
✭s♦♠❡ ✐♥ tr❛✲❞❛ ② ❜ ♦♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❞♦♥✬t ❡✈ ❡♥ ❡①✐st✮✱ ❛❣❡♥ t str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✭❡♥ t❡r✴❡①✐t t✐♠✐♥❣✮✱
❡①♦❣❡♥♦✉s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭❞❛✐❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❤❛s ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s t❤❛♥ ✇ ❡❡❦❧②
♦r ♠♦♥ t❤❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮✱ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ✇ ❡
❝❛♥ r❡♣r♦ ❞✉❝❡✳ ❚❤✐s ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ t✐♠❡ ✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❛♥❞ ❤❛s t♦ ❜ ❡ ✇ ❡❧❧ ❞❡❢❡♥❞❡❞✳
✹✳✸✳✹ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
Pr✐❝❡s ✭s❤♦✉❧❞ ✐❞❡❛❧✐st✐❝❛❧❧②✮ r❡✢❡❝t ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s t❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡ ♣r♦✲
❝❡ss ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t♦ ♣r✐❝❡✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✢♦ ✇ ✐s ❛ ❝r✉❝✐❛❧
❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ t ❢♦r ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❚❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ t ✇ ♦ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧✲
❛❜❧❡ t♦ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ ts✿ ❡①♦❣❡♥♦✉s ❛♥❞ ❡♥❞♦❣❡♥♦✉s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❊♥❞♦❣❡♥♦✉s
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ✈ ♦❧✈ ❡s ❞❛t❛ ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ str✉❝t✉r❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐ts❡❧❢ ✭♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ ts✱ s❡✲
❝✉r✐t✐❡s str✉❝t✉r❡✱ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s✱ ❡t❝✳✮ ❛♥❞ ✐t ✐s ✉s✉❛❧❧② ✇ ❡❧❧ ❦♥♦ ✇♥ ❜ ② t❤❡
♠❛ ❥♦r✐t ② ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❊①♦❣❡♥♦✉s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ ts t❤❡ ❞❛t❛ ❝♦♥❝❡r♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ s❡✲
❝✉r✐t✐❡s✬ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❙✉❝ ❤ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❤❛s ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❢♦r♠❛ts ❛♥❞
✉s✉❛❧❧② r❡✢❡❝ts ❛ ❞✐st✐❧❧❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ s❤♦ ✇✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❛
❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ✭tr❛♥s❧❛t❡❞ ✐♥ ❛♥ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤ ✢♦ ✇s ❛♥❞ r❡t✉r♥ r❛t❡s✮✳
▼♦st ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs r❡♣❧✐❝❛t❡ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❚❤❡ ❡①♦❣❡♥♦✉s ✐♥✲
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r t❤❡s❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✉s✉❛❧❧② ❝♦♥s✐sts ✐♥ ♣r♦ ①✐❡s ❢♦r t❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
✭❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s✱ ♣r✐❝❡✴❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s✱ ❡t❝✮✳ ❲ ❡ ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ t❤❛t ❛ s❡❝♦♥❞ s♦✉r❝❡ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❛s ❛ ♣r♦ ①② ❢♦r t❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ r✐s❦ ✐s ❡ss❡♥ t✐❛❧ ❢♦r ❛ ♣❛rs✐♠♦♥✐♦✉s r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛
r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❆ss❡ss✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ r✐s❦ ♦❢ ❛ st♦ ❝ ❦ ✭t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ r✐s❦s
♦❢ ❛ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②✮ ✐s ❛t ❧❡❛st ❛s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❛s ❛ss❡ss✐♥❣ ✐ts ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❋ ✉t✉r❡

✼✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
❝❛s❤ ✢♦ ✇s ❛r❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❞❛t❛ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ❛♥❞ ✐ts ❜✉s✐♥❡ss
❡♥ ✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥ t✳ ❚❤✐s ♠❡❛♥s t❤❛t ❛ r✐s❦ ❢❛❝t♦r ✐s ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ❝♦♠♣✉t❡❞ ❛♥❞ ♥❡❝❡ss❛r② ❢♦r
❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②✬s st♦ ❝ ❦✳ ❚❤❡ ❡①♦❣❡♥♦✉s r✐s❦ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡
❛ ♣r♦ ①② ❢♦r ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t r✐s❦ ❢❛❝t♦rs ❧✐❦ ❡ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ② r✐s❦✱ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r✐s❦ ✭r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
❛ss❡ts t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ❤♦❧❞s✮ ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ❜✉s✐♥❡ss r✐s❦✳ ❯s✐♥❣ t ✇ ♦ ✢♦ ✇s ♦❢ ❡①♦❣❡♥♦✉s ✐♥✲
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ r✐s❦ r❡❧❛t❡❞✮ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡tt❡r ❛ss❡ss t❤❡ ❝♦♥✜❞❡♥❝❡ ✐♥ t❡r✈ ❛❧
❢♦r t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❛ s❡❝✉r✐t ② ❛♥❞ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t ✐t✳ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s ✐♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ❝❛♣❛❝✐t✐❡s
✭❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣❡ ❛♥❞ ❧❛❝ ❦ ♦❢ ❜✐❛s✮ ♣r♦ ❞✉❝❡s ♠♦r❡ ❛❝❝✉r❛t❡ ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ r✐s❦ ❡✈ ❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥s✳
❆ ❞❡❜❛t❡ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ♠❛❞❡ ❛❜ ♦✉t ✇❤❡t❤❡r ❛ ✬❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧✬ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❡①✐sts ♦r ♥♦t✳ ș♥
t❤✐s st✉❞② ✇ ❡ ✈✐❡✇ t❤❡ ✬❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✬ ♦❢ ❛ st♦ ❝ ❦ ❛s ❛ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝ ❝♦♥str✉❝t t❤❛t
❤❛s t❤❡ ❣♦❛❧ ♦❢ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞✐♥❣ ❛ s♦✉r❝❡ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳
✹✳✸✳✺ ❇✐❛s ✐♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss✐♥❣
ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t ✇ ♦ ❢♦r♠s✿ q✉❛♥ t✐t❛t✐✈ ❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ st❛t❡✲
♠❡♥ ts✮ ❛♥❞ q✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈ ❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭❧❡tt❡rs t♦ s❤❛r❡❤♦❧❞❡rs✱ ❛♥❛❧②st r❡♣ ♦rts✱ ❡❝♦✲
♥♦♠✐❝ ♥❡✇s✮✳ ◗✉❛♥ t✐t❛t✐✈ ❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❡❞ ❢❛✐r❧② ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡❧② ❜ ② t❤❡
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✳ ❲ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t♦ ❛❞❞r❡ss t❤❡ ✐ss✉❡ ♦❢ q✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈ ❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❝❛♥✱ ❛♥❞ ♦❢t❡♥
✇✐❧❧✱ ❜ ❡ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✇ ❛ ② ✳
❊❛❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥ t ❤❛s ❤✐s ♦ ✇♥ ♠❛♥♥❡r ❛♥❞ ❝❛♣❛❝✐t ② t♦ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳
❙♦♠❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✉s❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ✐ts ♦r✐❣✐♥❛❧ ❢♦r♠ ✇❤✐❧❡ ♦t❤❡rs ❜✐❛s t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
✐♥ ❛❧❧ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♠❛♥♥❡rs✳ ❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ❛❣❡♥ ts t❤❛t ❛r❡ ♦♣t✐♠✐sts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ t❡♥❞❡♥❝② t♦
✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡ ♠❛❣♥✐t✉❞❡ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭❧✐❦ ❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ♦r r✐s❦
❞❡❝r❡❛s❡✮ ❛♥❞ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡ ❜❛❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ș♥ ✈ ❡rs❡❧② ✱ ♣ ❡ss✐♠✐st ❛❣❡♥ ts ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡ ❣♦ ♦ ❞
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ❜❛❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❆ ♠♦r❡ ❝♦♠♣r❡❤❡♥s✐✈ ❡ r❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r
❜✐❛s❡s ✇ ❛s ♠❛❞❡ ✐♥ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✳
❲❤❡♥ ✇ ❡ t❛❧❦ ❛❜ ♦✉t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ✇ ❡ r❡❢❡r t♦ ✐♥ tr✐♥s✐❝ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ♦❢ ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♦rs ✭♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ ❤ ✉♠❛♥s✮ ❛♥❞ ♥♦t t♦ ✈ ♦❧✉♥ t❛r② ❛❝t✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡s✱ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞
s✉❝❝✐♥❝t❧② ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡✱ r❡❢❡r t♦ ✇ ❛ ②s t❤r♦✉❣❤ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛❧t❡r✱ ✐♥ ✈ ♦❧✉♥ t❛r✐❧② ✱ t❤❡ ✐♥✲
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡② ♣ ❡r❝❡✐✈ ❡✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❜✐❛s❡s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✬ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣
♣r♦ ❝❡ss✳ ❖♥❡ ❝❛♥ ❛r❣✉❡ t❤❛t ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ❝❛♥♥♦t ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ✐ts ❡♠♦t✐♦♥❛❧ ❜✐❛s❡s ② ❡t ❛♥
❛❣❡♥ t ❝❛♥ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧❧② ❛❧t❡r t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❤❡ ✉s❡s ❛s t❤❡ ✐♥♣✉t ❢♦r ❤✐s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t
str❛t❡❣② ✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ✇ ❡ s❛ ② t❤❛t t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✬s ❜✐❛s❡s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧❧② ✧✉♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞✧
❜ ② ♠❛❦✐♥❣ ❝♦rr❡❝t✐♦♥s t♦ t❤❡ ❡①♦❣❡♥♦✉s r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ș❢ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡s
t❤❛t ❤✐s ❡② ❡s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s♦♠❡ ❢♦r♠ ♦❢ r❡❢r❛❝t✐♦♥ ❞②s❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ✭❡✳❣✳ ♠ ② ♦♣✐❛✮ ❤❡ ❝❛♥ ✉s❡ ❡①✲
t❡r♥❛❧ ♠❡❛♥s ♦❢ ❝♦rr❡❝t✐♦♥s ✭❧✐❦ ❡ ❣❧❛ss❡s ♦r ❝♦♥ t❛❝t ❧❡♥s❡s✮✳ ❙✐♠✐❧❛r❧② ✱ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r
❦♥♦ ✇s t❤❛t t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❤❡ r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡s ✐s ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✭❜ ② ❤✐♠ ♦r ♦t❤❡rs✮ ❛♥❞ ❤❡ ❝❛♥ ❛♣♣❧②
❛ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss ❢♦r ❝♦rr❡❝t✐♥❣ t❤❡s❡ ❜✐❛s❡s ❜ ❡❢♦r❡ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❞❛t❛ ❢♦r t❤✐s ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦
❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s✳ ❆♥ ♦♣t✐♠✐st✐❝ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t❤❛t ❡①♣ ❡❝ts t❤❡ ❣r♦ ✇t❤ ♦❢ ❛ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ❢♦r ♥❡①t
② ❡❛r t♦ ❜ ❡ ✷✵✪ ❝❛♥ ❝♦rr❡❝t ❤✐s ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ✭♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ ❤❡ ❦♥♦ ✇s ❤❡ ✐s ❛♥ ♦♣t✐♠✐st✮
t♦ ❛ ♠♦r❡ ✬✉♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞✬ ✶✼✪✱ ✶✻✪ ✭♦r ❧♦ ✇ ❡r✮✳

✹✳✸✳ ❚ ♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✼✶
✹✳✸✳✻ ❘✐s❦ ❛♥❞ t✐♠❡ ♣r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡s
❲❤❡♥ ♠♦❞❡❧✐♥❣ ❛♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ✇✐t❤ ❛ s✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞ ❛❣❡♥t ✇❡ ♠❛❦❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛❜♦✉t
❤♦✇ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝r❡❛t❡ t❤❡✐r ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦s✿ ❤♦✇ ♠✉❝❤ ❝❛s❤ ❞♦ t❤❡② ❤♦❧❞ ❛♥❞ ❤♦✇ ♠✉❝❤ ❞♦
t❤❡② ✐♥✈❡st ✐♥ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t✳ ❆♥ ❛❣❡♥t ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ♠♦❞❡❧❡❞ ❛s ❛♥ ♦♣t✐♠✐③❡r ♦❢ ♠❡❛♥✲
✈ ❛r✐❛♥❝❡✱ ♦❢ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t② ♠❛①✐♠✐③✐♥❣ ♦r ♥♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ t✇♦✳ ❚❤❡ r✐s❦ ❛tt✐t✉❞❡ ♦❢
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✐s ♥♦t s✐♠♣❧❡ t♦ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❛♥❞ ♦♥❡ s❤♦✉❧❞ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡ ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ♦♥❡ ❝❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝
r✐s❦ ❛tt✐t✉❞❡s t♦ s✉♣♣♦rt t❤❡ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡✐t② ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♦✉r ♠❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣② ✳ ❘✐s❦
❛✈❡rs✐♦♥ ✐s s❤♦✇♥✱ ✐♥ ✭ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✷❜ ✮✱ t♦ ❜❡ ❛♥ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ❢❛❝t♦r ✐♥ t❤❡
♣❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦r✬s str❛t❡❣② ✳
ș♥ r❡❣❛r❞s t♦ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❤♦r✐③♦♥s✱ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥♦✉s ❢r♦♠ ♠②♦♣✐❝
✭❧♦♦❦✐♥❣ t♦ q✉✐❝❦❧② ❡①✐t ♣♦s✐t✐♦♥s✮ ♦r ❛r❡ r❡❛❞② t♦ ❤♦❧❞ ♣♦s✐t✐♦♥s ❢♦r ❛ ❧♦♥❣❡r✲t❡r♠✳
▼♦❞❡❧✐♥❣ ✐♥✈❡st♦r t✐♠❡ ♣r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡s ✐s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t✱ ❛s ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ✐♥ ✭ ▲❡❇❛r♦♥ ✱✷✵✵✶ ✮✱
❛♥❞ ❛❧❧ ❝❤♦✐❝❡s s❤♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ❝❧❡❛r❧② ❥✉st✐✜❡❞✳ ❆ ❣♦♦❞ ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ✐s t♦ ♣❡r♠✐t ❛ ♠✐① ♦❢
♣r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡s✱ s❤♦rt ❛♥❞ ❧♦♥❣ ❤♦r✐③♦♥ ❢♦r ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t✱ ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❡✐r ❝♦✲❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥✳
❘❡❢❡rr✐♥❣ t♦ r✐s❦ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♠♦st ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs ❞♦♥✬t ❢♦❝✉s ♦♥ r✐s❦ ❛♥❞
✉s❡ ❛ ❝❧❛ss✐❝ ❢♦r♠ ♦❢ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ♠❡❛s✉r❡✳ ❆ ♥❡✇❧② ♣✉❜❧✐s❤❡❞ ♠♦❞❡❧✱ ✐♥ ✭ ❚❤✉r♥❡r
❡t ❛❧✳ ✱✷✵✶✷ ✮ ❢♦❝✉s❡s ♦♥ ❛♥♦t❤❡r ❛s♣❡❝t ♦❢ r✐s❦✿ s②st❡♠✐❝ r✐s❦✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♠♦❞❡❧
❛♥ ❡♥t✐r❡ ✬st②❧✐③❡❞✬ ❡❝♦♥♦♠② ❝♦♥s✐st✐♥❣ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭❡✳❣✳ ❤❡❞❣❡ ❢✉♥❞s✮✱
✉♥✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ ❜❛♥❦s t❤❛t ♣r♦✈✐❞❡ ❝r❡❞✐ts✳ ❚❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞ ❛❣❡♥ts s❡♥❞
❞❡♠❛♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✭t❤❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ t❤❡ ❧♦✇❡r
t❤❡ ❞❡♠❛♥❞✮✳ ❲❤✐❧❡ t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐s ✐♥t❡r❡st✐♥❣✱ ✐♥ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡ t♦ ✐ts ♣✉r♣♦s❡✱ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡
s♦♠❡ ❢❡❛t✉r❡s t❤❛t ♠❛❦❡ ✐t ✉♥r❡❛❧✐st✐❝ ✭❡✳❣✳ t❤❡ ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✉♥✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
✐s ❛ ✇❡❛❦✲♠❡❛♥ r❡✈❡rt✐♥❣ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮✳ ❆s ✇❡ ❞✐s❝✉ss❡❞ ✐♥
❝❤❛♣t❡r ✱ ❛ ♠♦❞❡❧ s❤♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t ❤❛✈❡ ❛s ✐♥♣✉t t❤❡ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s t❤❛t ✇❡ ❞❡s✐r❡ ✐♥ t❤❡
♦✉t♣✉t✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡✱ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❢♦r❝❡❞ ❜② ❞❡s✐❣♥ t♦ r❡✈❡rt t♦ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳
❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ❞r❛✇ ✐♥t❡r❡st✐♥❣ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s ❛❜♦✉t ❤♦✇ t❤❡ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥s ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡✱
❜❛♥❦ ♣r❡❝❛✉t✐♦♥ r❡❣✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ s②st❡♠✐❝ r✐s❦✳ ❲❤❛t ✇❡ s❤♦✉❧❞ r❡t❛✐♥ ✐s t❤❡ ✐❞❡❛
t❤❛t ✧s②st❡♠✐❝ r✐s❦✧ ♠❛② ❜❡ r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥t ✐♥ ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ t❛❦❡♥ ✐♥t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ❜②
✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ❚❤✉s✱ ❛ ♠♦r❡ ❝♦♠♣r❡❤❡♥s✐✈❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♠♦❞❡❧ s❤♦✉❧❞ t❛❦❡ t❤❡
s②st❡♠✐❝ r✐s❦ ❢❛❝t♦r ✐♥t♦ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛t✐♦♥✳
✹✳✸✳✼ ❆❣❡♥ t ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣
❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ r❡✢❡❝ts t❤❡ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ♦❢ r❡❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ❙❡✈❡r❛❧ ♠❡t❤♦❞s
❢♦r ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ❤❛✈❡ ❜❡❡♥ r❡s❡❛r❝❤❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❛❝❦♥♦✇❧❡❞❣❡❞ ❛s ❝♦rr❡❝t✳ ❇❡❢♦r❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥✐♥❣
s♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ♠❡t❤♦❞s ✇❡ ✇❛♥t t♦ ♣♦✐♥t ♦✉t t❤❛t ❛❧❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ♣♦ss❡ss ❛ ❧❛t❡♥t ❢♦r♠
♦❢ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣✿ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥❛r② ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ✭❛❧s♦ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ♣❛ss✐✈❡ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣✮✳ ❇② ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥❛r②
❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ✇❡ ❡①♣r❡ss t❤❡ ❢❛❝t t❤❛t ❛ s②st❡♠ ❜❡❝♦♠❡s ❜❡tt❡r ❛❞❛♣t❡❞ t♦ ✐ts ❡♥✈✐r♦♥✲
♠❡♥t✱ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡❞ t❤❛t ❧❡ss ♣❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❡✈❡♥t✉❛❧❧② ❞✐s❛♣♣❡❛r ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ s②st❡♠✳
❖♥ ❛ ♠✐❝r♦ ❧❡✈❡❧✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t ✐s ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ s②st❡♠✬s ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥❛r② ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ✐❢ ❤❡
✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ❡①❝❧✉❞❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ s②st❡♠ ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ ♦t❤❡r s✉♣❡r✐♦r ❝♦♠♣❡t✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥ts✳ ș♥

✼✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱ t❤❡ ♣ ❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ✐s t❤❡ r❡t✉r♥ r❛t❡✳ ❚❤ ✉s✱
❛❣❡♥ ts t❤❛t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✇✐❧❧✱ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❧♦♥❣ r✉♥✱ ❧♦s❡ ❛❧❧ t❤❡✐r ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ✭♣r♦✲
✈✐❞❡❞ t❤❡ ❣❛♠❡s ✐♥ ③❡r♦✲s✉♠ ♦r t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ✇✐t❤ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❞♦ ✇♥ t✉r♥s✮ ❛♥❞
✇✐❧❧ ❡✈ ❡♥ t✉❛❧❧② ❜ ❡ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❲ ❡ s❛ ② t❤❛t ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❤❛s ❛
❢♦r♠ ♦❢ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥❛r② ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐t ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡s ✉♥❞❡r♣ ❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❚❤❡
♥❡❝❡ss❛r② ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ❢♦r t❤✐s ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥❛r② ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ❛r❡✿
• ❚❤❡ s②st❡♠ ✐s r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡❧② ❝❧♦s❡❞✿ ♥♦t ♠❛♥ ② ♥❡✇✱ ❛♥❞ ❧❡ss ✬❛❞❛♣t❡❞✬ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱
❡♥ t❡r r❡❣✉❧❛r❧② t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ♥❡✇✲❝♦♠❡rs ❜ ❡❝♦♠❡ ❛ ♣r❛ ② ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠♦r❡
✬❛❞❛♣t❡❞✬ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳
• ❚ r❛❞✐♥❣ ✐s ❢r❡q✉❡♥ t✳ ▲♦ ✇ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡s ❞♦♥✬t ♣ ❡r♠✐t ❡①❝ ❤❛♥❣❡s ♦❢ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ❢r♦♠ ❧❡ss
t♦ ❜ ❡tt❡r ♣ ❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣✐❡s✱ ❛t ❧❡❛st ♥♦t ♦♥ ❞❡❝❡♥ t t✐♠❡ s❝❛❧❡s✳
ș♥ t❤❡ ❧♦♥❣ t❡r♠✱ ✐❢ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ✇ ♦r❦s ❛s ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞✱ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐❧❧ r❡❛❝ ❤ ❛ ♣ ♦✐♥ t
✇❤❡r❡ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✇✐❧❧ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ✇ ❡❧❧ ♣ ❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❛❧❧ tr❛❞❡s
✇✐❧❧ ❝❡❛s❡ ✭s✐♥❝❡ ♥♦ ❛❣❡♥ t ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ ❜✉② ❤✐❣❤ ✴ s❡❧❧ ❧♦ ✇✮✳ ❚❤✐s ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡
✐s ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② ✐♠♣❧✐❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t t❤❡♦r② ✳ ❚❤✐s ♣❛ss✐✈ ❡ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ ♦❢ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣
❞♦ ❡s♥✬t r❡q✉✐r❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t♦ ❛❝t✐✈ ❡❧② ❛❞❛♣t t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦♥❧② t❤❡ ♣r❡✈ ❛✐❧✐♥❣
str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✇✐❧❧ ♣ ❡rs✐st ✐♥ t✐♠❡✳
❚❤❡ ♦t❤❡r t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ r❡q✉✐r❡s ✈ ♦❧✉♥ t❛r② ❛❝t✐♦♥ ❢r♦♠ ❛❣❡♥ ts✳ ❚❤✐s t ②♣ ❡
♦❢ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ✐s ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❛❝t✐✈ ❡ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐t r❡q✉✐r❡s ❛❣❡♥ ts t♦ ❛❝t✐✈ ❡❧② ✐♠♣r♦ ✈ ❡
t❤❡✐r str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❢♦r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐♥❣✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ♦❢ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡
s❡✈ ❡r❛❧ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ❛ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡r s❤♦✉❧❞ ❛♥s✇ ❡r ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ❡q✉✐♣ ❤✐s ❛❣❡♥ ts ✇✐t❤ t❤❡
❝❛♣❛❝✐t ② ❢♦r ❛❝t✐✈ ❡ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣✳ ❚❤❡ ✜rst q✉❡st✐♦♥ s❤♦✉❧❞ ❜ ❡ ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ♥❛t✉r❡ ♦❢ t❤❡
♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts✳ ❙❤♦✉❧❞ t❤❡② ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤✱ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢
✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ ♣r♦s♣ ❡❝t t❤❡♦r② ♦r t❤❡✐r ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ t♦ ♠❡❛♥ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ♦❢ t❤❡
♣ ♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥❄ ❙❤♦✉❧❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ r❡t✉r♥s r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ t♦ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s ✭♦r
♥♦♥✲r✐s❦② r❡t✉r♥s✮ ♦r s❤♦✉❧❞ t❤❡② ❥✉st ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r t❤❡✐r ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r❡t✉r♥s❄ ❊❛❝ ❤ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡
♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥s ✐♠♣❧✐❡s ❛♥❞ ♣r♦ ❞✉❝❡s ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❚❤✐s
❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ✐s t❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ❤✐❣❤❧② r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥ t ❛♥❞ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❢♦r t❤❡ ❝♦♥str✉❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♠♦ ❞❡❧✳
❖♥❝❡ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ✐s s❡t ✇ ❡ ❧♦ ♦❦ ❛t ❤♦ ✇ ❛❣❡♥ ts ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② ❧❡❛r♥✳
❚❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ❜❛s✐❝❛❧❧② t ✇ ♦ ❢♦r♠s ♦❢ ❛❝t✐✈ ❡ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣✿ ✐♥♥♦ ✈ ❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥✳ ❋✐rst❧② ✱
✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ✇✐❧❧ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ✐♠✐t❛t❡ t❤❡ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ♦❢ ❜ ❡tt❡r ♣ ❡r✲
❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥ ts✳ ❯♥❞❡r♣ ❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ❞✐s❝❛r❞❡❞ ♠ ✉❝ ❤ ❢❛st❡r ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ♦✲
❧✉t✐♦♥ ✇✐❧❧ t❛❦ ❡ ✐ts ❝♦✉rs❡✳ ❙❡❝♦♥❞❧② ✱ ✐♥♥♦ ✈ ❛t✐♦♥ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t ❛❣❡♥ ts ✇✐❧❧ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ t❤❡
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ♦❢ t❤❡✐r str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✭✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❜✐❛s ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r✱ r✐s❦ ❜✐❛s✱ r✐s❦ ❛ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥✱
tr✐❣❣❡r ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ❢♦r s❡❧❧✐♥❣✴❜✉②✐♥❣✱ ❢r❡q✉❡♥❝② ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣✱ ❡t❝✳✮✳ ❚❤✐s ♣r♦ ❝❡ss ✐♥ ✈ ♦❧✈ ❡s
❡✈ ❡♥ ❢❛st❡r ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❛❞❛♣t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣ ❡t✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣✐❡s✳ ❲❤❡♥ ❛❧❧ ✭♦r ♠♦st✮
❛❣❡♥ ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤✐s ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ❛❜✐❧✐t ② t❤❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜ ❡❝♦♠❡s ❛♥ ❡❝♦s②s✲
t❡♠ ♦❢ ❢❛st ❡✈ ♦❧✈✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣ ❡t✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣✐❡s✳ ❘❡❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❡①❤✐❜✐t ❜ ♦t❤ ❢♦r♠s ♦❢
❛❝t✐✈ ❡ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣✳ ❚❤❡ ❝♦♠ ❜✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ t ✇ ♦ t ②♣ ❡s ♣r♦ ❞✉❝❡s ✐♥ t❡r❡st✐♥❣ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s
✐♥ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳

✹✳✸✳ ❚ ♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✼✸
✹✳✸✳✽ ❆❣❡♥ t str❛t❡❣② ❜✐❛s
▼❛r❦❡ts ❛r❡ ❞r✐✈❡♥ ❜② ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❡①tr❡♠❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ ♣r♦❞✉❝❡ ❡①tr❡♠❡
❡✛❡❝ts ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ❚❤❡ ❤✉♠❛♥ ❜r❛✐♥ ❤❛s ❛ ♣❛rt✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❜r❛✐♥ st❡♠✱ ✇❤✐❝❤
✐s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ ❛ ♣r✐♠✐t✐✈❡ ❜r❛✐♥✳ ❚❤❡ ❜r❛✐♥ st❡♠ ❝❛♥ ✐♥❤✐❜✐t t❤❡ ❝♦rt❡① ✭t❤❡ ❜✐❣ r❛t✐♦✲
♥❛❧ ❜r❛✐♥✮ ❛♥❞ t❛❦❡ ❧✐❣❤t♥✐♥❣ ❢❛st ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ s❡♥❞ ❝♦♠♠❛♥❞s t♦ t❤❡ ❧♦❝♦♠♦t♦r②
s②st❡♠ ✭❧✐❦❡ ❥✉♠♣✐♥❣ ♦✉t ♦❢ t❤❡ ✇❛② ♦❢ ❛ ❝❛r ♦r ❛✈♦✐❞✐♥❣ ❛ ✢②✐♥❣ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✮✳ ❚❤❡s❡ r❡✲
❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ tr✐❣❣❡r❡❞ ❜② ❡①tr❡♠❡ ❡♠♦t✐♦♥s ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛r❡ ✐♥ t✉r♥ ❝❛✉s❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ❞❡t❡❝t✐♦♥
♦❢ ❛♥ ✐♠♣❡♥❞✐♥❣ ❣r❛✈❡ ❞❛♥❣❡r✳
❊①tr❡♠❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❛rr✐✈❡s ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❝❛♥✱ ❛♥❞ ♦❢t❡♥ ❞♦❡s✱ ❝❛✉s❡
❡rr❛t✐❝ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❊①tr❡♠❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥ts✱ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠ ♦❢ ♠♦r❡
t❤❛♥3∗σ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥ ❢r♦♠ ❤✐st♦r✐❝ r❡t✉r♥s ❛r❡ s❡❡♥ ♠♦r❡ ♦❢t❡♥ t❤❛♥ ✇❡ ❡①♣❡❝t ❢r♦♠
t❤❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t❤❡♦r② ✭s❡❡ ❧❡♣t♦❦✉rt✐❝ r❡t✉r♥s✱ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✸✳✻ ✮✳
❚❤❡ r❡❛s♦♥ ❢♦r t❤❡s❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♦✉t❝♦♠❡s ✐s r♦♦t❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✧♥♦t ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧②✧ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧
❛♥❞ r❡♣❡❛t❛❜❧❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳
❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✇❡ ♣r♦♣♦s❡ t❤❛t ❛❣❡♥ts✱ ✐♥ s✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✱ s❤♦✉❧❞ ♣♦ss❡ss
s♦♠❡ ❢♦r♠ ♦❢ tr✐❣❣❡r ❢♦r r❛s❤ ❛♥❞ ❢❛st r❡❛❝t✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤❡s❡ r❡❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ❝❛✉s❡❞ ❜② ❡①✲
♦❣❡♥♦✉s ❢❛❝t♦rs✿ ❧❛❝❦ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ❡①tr❡♠❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ r✉♠♦rs ♦r ❜② ❡♥❞♦❣❡♥♦✉s
❢❛❝t♦rs✿ ❧♦ss ❛✈❡rs✐♦♥ ❧❡✈❡❧✱ ❤✐❣❤ ❝♦♠♣✉❧s♦r② ❝♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥✱ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ♣❡r✐♦❞✳
▼♦st ♠♦❞❡❧s ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t ✐❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♦r ♥♦t ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② r ❛t✐♦♥❛❧ t❤❡② ✇✐❧❧
❜❡❤❛✈❡ ❧✐❦❡ t❤✐s ✐♥ ❛ ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥t ❛♥❞ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❛❜❧❡ ♠❛♥♥❡r✳ ❙✉❝❤ ❡①tr❡♠❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r
❝❛♥ ❜❡tt❡r ❝❛♣t✉r❡ t❤❡ ✉♥♣r❡❞✐❝t❛❜❧❡ ❛♥❞ ✐♥❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐st ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ❖❢
❝♦✉rs❡✱ ✐❢ t❤✐s ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ✐s ✉♥❞❡r♣❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ✐t ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡❞ t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥✳
❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✐t ✐s ❞✐✣❝✉❧t t♦ ❛r❣✉❡ t❤❛t ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝✐♥❣ s✉❝❤ ❛♥ ❡①tr❡♠❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❢❡❛t✉r❡
❝❛♥ ❞✐st✉r❜ ♠❛r❦❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ❢♦r ❛ s✉✣❝✐❡♥t❧② ❧♦♥❣ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ♦❢ t✐♠❡✳
✹✳✸✳✾ Pr✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❚❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠ ✐s ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥ts ♦❢ ❛ s✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❘❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✉s❡ ♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦s t❤❛t ♠❛t❝❤ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞✐♥❣ tr❛♥s❛❝✲
t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ♦✛❡r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜♦✉t ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❞✉r✐♥❣ ❛ t✐♠❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞✳ ❙✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞
♠❛r❦❡ts ✉s❡ ❛ ✈ ❛r✐❡t② ♦❢ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠s t❤❛t ❝❛♥ s✐♠♣❧✐❢② t❤❡ ✉s❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ tr❛❝t❛❜✐❧✐t②
♦❢ t❤❡✐r ♠♦❞❡❧s✳ ✭ ❇♦tt❛③③✐ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✺ ✮ ♠❛❦❡ ❛ ❣♦♦❞ ❝♦♠♣❛r✐s♦♥ ❛❜♦✉t ♠❛r❦❡t ♦r✲
❣❛♥✐③❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❤♦✇ t❤✐s ❝❛♥ ❛✛❡❝t ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❲ ❡ ❛❞❤❡r❡ t♦ t❤❡ ♦♣✐♥✐♦♥ t❤❛t
s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs s❤♦✉❧❞ ✉s❡ tr✉❡ ♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦s ❢♦r ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭❛s ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✭ ❊♣✲
st❡✐♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✻ ✮✱ ♣❛❣❡ ✶✶✾✹✮✳ ❲ ❡ ♠❛❦❡ ❛ ❜r✐❡❢ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ✐♥t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ♠♦❞❡❧s ✉s❡❞
✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳
❖♥❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠ ❝♦♥s✐sts ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ♠❛❦❡r t❤❛t ❛♥♥♦✉♥❝❡s ♣r✐❝❡s
❛t ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛❣❡♥ts s❡♥❞ ❜✉②✴s❡❧❧ ♦r❞❡rs✳ ❈♦♥s❡q✉❡♥t❧② ✱ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❛❞❥✉st❡❞ ♣r♦❣r❡s✲
s✐✈❡❧② t♦ ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡ t❤❡ ❡①❝❡ss ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ♦r s✉♣♣❧② ✱ ❛s ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ ✐♥ ✭ ❋ ❛r♠❡r ❛♥❞ ❏♦s❤✐ ✱
✷✵✵✵ ✮✳ ❆♥♦t❤❡r ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠ ❝♦♥s✐sts ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ts ♠❡❡t✐♥❣ r❛♥❞♦♠❧② ❛♥❞ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❛ss❡ts
❢♦r ❛♥ ❛❞✲❤♦❝ ❛❣r❡❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡ ✭s❡❡ ✭ ❇❡❧tr❛tt✐ ❛♥❞ ▼❛r❣❛r✐t❛ ✱ ✶✾✾✷ ✮ ❢♦r ❛♥ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✮✳

✼✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
❆❧t❤♦✉❣❤ t❤❡s❡ t✇♦ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠s s✐♠♣❧✐❢② t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t ♠♦❞❡❧s t❤❡② ❛❧s♦ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡ s♦♠❡
♠✐❝r♦str✉❝t✉r❡ ❢❡❛t✉r❡s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ♣r❡s❡♥t❧② st✉❞✐❡❞ ✐♥ r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ❚❤❡
♠♦st r❡❛❧✐st✐❝ ♠❡t❤♦❞ ✐s t❤❡ ♦♥❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡❞ ✐♥ ✭ ❈❤✐❛r❡❧❧❛ ❛♥❞ ș♦r✐ ✱ ✷✵✵✷ ✮ ♦r ✭ ❘❛❜❡rt♦
❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✶ ✮✳ ❚❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✉s❡s ❛ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦ t♦ r❡s♦❧✈❡ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ✜♥❞
♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✭s❡❡ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✸✳✷ ❢♦r ❞❡t❛✐❧s ❛❜♦✉t ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
♠❛r❦❡ts✮✳
❚❤❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t t②♣❡s ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠s ❤❛✈❡ ❜❡❡♥ st✉❞✐❡❞
❜② ♠❛♥② r❡s❡❛r❝❤❡rs s✉❝❤ ❛s ✭ ❘❛❜❡rt♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✺ ✮✳ ș♥ t❤❡ t❤r❡❡ ✈❡rs✐♦♥s ✭●❆❙▼
✶✱ ✷ ❛♥❞ ✸✮ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ●❊◆❖❆ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r✱ ❘❛❜❡rt♦ ❛♥❞ ❈✐♥❝♦tt✐ s❤♦✇ ❤♦✇ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t
t②♣❡s ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠s ❝❛♥ ✐♠♣❛❝t t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ❊✈❡♥ ✐❢
t❤✐s ●❊◆❖❆ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ✐s ♦❢t❡♥ q✉♦t❡❞ ✇❤❡♥ ♣r♦✈✐❞✐♥❣ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ✬st②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts✬
❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ✜♥❞✐♥❣s✱ s♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ✈❡rs✐♦♥s ✭♥♦t❛❜❧② ●❆❙▼ ✶✮ ♠❛❦❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ♦♥
t❤❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t❤❛t ✐♠♣❧✐❝✐t❧② ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ s♦♠❡ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ✭❡✳❣✳
❛❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ♦r❞❡rs st♦❝❤❛st✐❝❛❧❧② ❛s ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❤✐st♦r✐❝❛❧ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t②✮✳
✹✳✹ ❈r✐t✐❝s ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛s ❛
♠❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣② ❢♦r r❡s❡❛r❝❤
❆❣❡♥t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs ✇❡r❡ ✜rst ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✶✾✽✵✬s ❛♥❞ t❤❡② ♣r♦✈✐❞❡❞ t❤❡
♠❡❛♥s t♦ ♠♦❞❡❧ s②st❡♠s ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ✧❜♦tt♦♠✲✉♣✧ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤✿ ♠♦❞❡❧ t❤❡ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ ❜❧♦❝❦s ♦❢
❛ s②st❡♠s ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ ✐ts ❡♠❡r❣❡♥t ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡❞ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s✳ ▲✐❦❡ ✇✐t❤ ❛♥② ♥❡✇
❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤✱ t❤✐s ♠❡t❤♦❞ ✇❛s ♠❡❡t ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❧♦t ♦❢ ❝r✐t✐❝ ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❛♣♣r♦✈ ❛❧✱ ❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧❧② ❢r♦♠
t❤❡ ❞❡❢❡♥❞❡rs ♦❢ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ r❡s❡❛r❝❤ ♠❡t❤♦❞s ✭❡✐t❤❡r ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t❛❧ ♦r ♣✉r❡ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧✮✳
ș♥ t❤✐s ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✇❡ r❡✈✐❡✇ ❛♥❞ ❛❞❞r❡ss t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ❝r✐t✐❝s ❢♦r ♦✉r ♠❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣② ✳
✶✳ ✧ ❙✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛r ❡ ✈❡r② ❛❜str ❛❝t ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ♦❢ ❛ r ❡ ❛❧✐t② ❛♥❞ t❤❡② ❝ ❛♥♥♦t
❝ ❛♣t✉r ❡ t❤❡ r ❡ ❛❧✐t② ❛♥❞ ❝ ♦♠♣❧❡①✐t② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✧ ✳
❇② ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥✱ ❛ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐s ❛ s✐♠♣❧✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥♦♥✳ ❆ ♠✉❧t✐✲❛❣❡♥t s✐♠✉✲
❧❛t♦r ❞♦❡s♥✬t tr② t♦ ❝❛♣t✉r❡ t❤❡ ❡♥t✐r❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡①✐t② ♦❢ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❈♦♥tr❛r② ✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t✲
❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❛✐♠s t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛♥ ❛❜str❛❝t r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t t❤❛t ❜❡❤❛✈❡s✱
✐♥ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡✱ ✐♥ ❛ s✐♠✐❧❛r ♠❛♥♥❡r ❛s r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ▼♦r❡♦✈❡r✱ t❤❡ ❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡ ✉s❡❞ ✐♥
❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✭❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡✮ ♣❡r♠✐ts t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣❧❡①
r✉❧❡s ❛♥❞ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦rs ✭✇❤✐❝❤ ✐s ❡①tr❡♠❡❧② ❞✐✣❝✉❧t t♦ ❞♦ ✉s✐♥❣ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❡q✉❛✲
t✐♦♥s✮✳ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥t ❢r♦♠ ♦t❤❡r ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤❡s✱ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦❞❡❧✐♥❣ ♠❛❦❡s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s
♦♥ ❛ ♠✐❝r♦✲❧❡✈❡❧ ❜❛s✐s ✭❡✳❣✳ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r✮ ❛♥❞ ♣❡r♠✐ts t❤❡ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ s✉❝❤
❛♥ ❡♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❡ ❡♠❡r❣❡♥t ♠❛❝r♦✲❧❡✈❡❧ ♣❛tt❡r♥s✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱
❝♦♠♣❧❡① ❛♥❞ ✉♥❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❝❛♥ ❡♠❡r❣❡ ❢r♦♠ ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡✲❞❡✜♥❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r✳
✷✳ ✧ ❆ ❣❡♥t✲❜ ❛s❡ ❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛r ❡ ❝ ♦♠♣✉t❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❜❧❛❝❦✲❜ ♦①❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡✐r
❞❡s✐❣♥❡rs ❝ ❛♥ t✇❡ ❛❦ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✐♥ ♦r ❞❡r t♦ ♦❜t❛✐♥ t❤❡ r ❡s✉❧ts t❤❡②
♥❡ ❡ ❞✳ ❚❤❡r ❡❢♦r ❡✱ t❤❡ r ❡s✉❧ts ❞✐s❝ ♦✈❡r ❡ ❞ ❛r ❡ ♥♦t ♠♦r ❡ t❤❛♥ ✇❤❛t ✇❛s
❛❧r ❡ ❛❞② ❜✉✐❧t ✐♥s✐❞❡ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✧ ✳

✹✳✹✳ ❈r✐t✐❝s ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛s ❛ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ❢♦r
r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✼✺
❚❤✐s ❝r✐t✐❝ ✐s ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② tr✉❡ ❢♦r ❛❧❧ t②♣❡s ♦❢ ♠♦❞❡❧s✳ ❚❤❡ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ✐s
t❤❛t r❡s❡❛r❝❤❡r ✧t✇❡❛❦✐♥❣✧ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❜❡tt❡r ❤✐❞❞❡♥ ✐♥ ❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♣r♦❣r❛♠ ✭❛t ❧❡❛st
✇❤❡♥ ✐t ❤❛s ❛♥ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ❝♦❞❡✮ t❤❛♥ ✐♥s✐❞❡ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧
❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✳ ❚ ♦ ❝♦✉♥t❡r❛❝t s✉❝❤ ✬✈✐s✐❜✐❧✐t②✬ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s✱ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ❛
s✐♠♣❧❡ ❛♥❞ ♣♦✇❡r❢✉❧ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t②✿ r❡♣❡❛t❛❜✐❧✐t② ✳ ❆ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❣r❛♠ ❝❛♥
❜❡ ♠❛❞❡ ♣✉❜❧✐❝ ❛♥❞ t❡st❡❞ ❡❛s✐❧② ❜② r❡s❡❛r❝❤❡rs ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❡♥t✐r❡ ✇♦r❧❞✳ ❇② ♠❛❦✐♥❣
t❤❡ s♦✉r❝❡ ❝♦❞❡ ♣✉❜❧✐❝✱ t❤❡ s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ r❡✈✐❡✇❡❞✳ ❆♥②❜♦❞② ❝❛♥
❥✉❞❣❡ ✐❢ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts ❛r❡ s♦♠❡❤♦✇ ❡♠❜❡❞❞❡❞ ✐♥s✐❞❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ♣❛rts ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❞❡s✐❣♥✳
ș♥ ♦♣♣♦s✐t✐♦♥✱ ❝❧❛ss✐❝ ♠♦❞❡❧s ❝❛♥♥♦t ❛❧✇❛②s ❜❡ t❡st❡❞ ✭❜② ♦t❤❡r r❡s❡❛r❝❤❡rs✮ ❜❡❝❛✉s❡
t❤❡ ❛♥❛❧②③❡❞ ❞❛t❛ ✐s ❝♦♥✜❞❡♥t✐❛❧ ♦r t❤❡ ♠❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣② ✉s❡❞ ✐s ❤✐❣❤❧② ❝♦♠♣❧✐❝❛t❡❞✳
✸✳ ✧ ❇❡ ❝ ❛✉s❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛r ❡ ♥✉♠❡r✐❝ ❛❧ ✇❡ ❝ ❛♥♥♦t ✉s❡ t❤❡♠ t♦ ❡①tr ❛❝t
❣❡♥❡r ❛❧ t❤❡ ♦r✐❡s✳✧
❚❤❡ ♣✉r♣♦s❡ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥t s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ✐s ❝❧♦s❡r t♦ t❡st✐♥❣ t❤❡♦r✐❡s r❛t❤❡r t❤❛♥ ❝♦♥✲
str✉❝t✐♥❣ ♥❡✇ ♦♥❡s✳ ș♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ✉s❡❞ t♦ s❡❡ ✐❢✱ ✐♥
t❤❡ ❧♦♥❣ t❡r♠✱ t❤❡ s✉r✈✐✈♦rs ❢r♦♠ ❛ ♠✐① ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♦♥❧② t❤❡ ♦♥❡s t❤❛t r❡s♣❡❝t
t❤❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✐♠♣❧✐❡❞ ❜② ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ t❤❡♦r② ✭❡✳❣✳ ❈❆✻▼ t❤❡♦r②✮✳ ❆s ❛r❣✉❡❞ ✐♥
❝❤❛♣t❡r ✱ ♦✉r ♠❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣② ♦✛❡rs t❤❡ ♠❡❛♥s t♦ t❡st t❤❡ ❛tt❛✐♥❛❜✐❧✐t② ♦❢ t❤❡ t❤❡♦r❡t✲
✐❝❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✐❞ ✬♠❛r❦❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②✬ st❛t❡✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ r❛t❤❡r t❤❛♥ ❡①tr❛❝t✐♥❣ ♥❡✇ t❤❡♦r✐❡s
✇❡ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡ ❜❡tt❡r ✇❛② t♦ t❡st ❡①✐st✐♥❣ t❤❡♦r✐❡s✳
✹✳ ✬❚❤❡ r ❡s✉❧ts ❛r ❡ ♠❡r ❡❧② ❝❤❛♥❝ ❡ ❛♥❞ r ❡♣r ❡s❡♥t ❛❞✲❤♦ ❝ ❡✛❡ ❝ts ✧ ✳
șt ✐s ♣♦ss✐❜❧❡ t❤❛t ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ r❡s✉❧t ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡❞ ❢r♦♠ ❛ ✈❡r② s♣❡❝✐✜❝ ✭❛♥❞
♠❛②❜❡ ✉♥r❡❛❧✐st✐❝✮ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ ✇♦r❧❞ s❡tt✐♥❣✳ ❚ ♦ ❝♦✉♥t❡r t❤✐s ♣r♦❜❧❡♠ r♦❜✉st♥❡ss t❡sts
❛r❡ ❡♠♣❧♦②❡❞✳ ❇② ✈ ❛r②✐♥❣ ✐♥♣✉t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✭❡✳❣✳ ❛❣❡♥t ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ♠✐①✱ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢
✐♥✈❡st♦rs✱ t✐♠❡ ❢r❛♠❡✮ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ s❡❡ ✐❢ t❤❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ r❡s✉❧t ♣❡rs✐sts ♦r ♥♦t✳ ▼♦r❡♦✈❡r✱
t❡sts ❝❛♥ ❜❡ r❡♣❡❛t❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥✜❞❡♥❝❡ ✐♥t❡r✈ ❛❧s ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡❞ ❢♦r ❡✈❡r② ♦✉t♣✉t
✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡✳
✺✳ ✧ ❆ ❣❡♥t ❜ ❛s❡ ❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ❛r ❡ ♥♦t ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝ ❛❧ ❡ q✉❛t✐♦♥s ❢♦r ✇❤✐❝❤ t❤❡r ❡
❛r ❡ ♥✉♠❡r ♦✉s r✐❣♦r ♦✉s ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s ❢♦r t❡st✐♥❣ ✧
❆ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♣r♦❣r❛♠ ✐s ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ❡q✉✐✈ ❛❧❡♥t ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✳
❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♣r♦❣r❛♠ ❤❛s t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s✱ ❛♥❞ ❛❞✈ ❛♥t❛❣❡s✱ ❛s ❛ ♠❛t❤✲
❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✳ ▼♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ❛ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t ❜❛s❡❞
♠♦❞❡❧ ❝❛♥ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t s❡ts ♦❢ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦rs t❤❛t ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❛❧✇❛②s tr❛❝t❛❜❧❡✳ ❋ ✉rt❤❡r♠♦r❡✱
❝♦♠♣❧❡① ♠♦❞❡❧s ✭❧✐❦❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r✮ ❛r❡ ❡❛s✐❡r t♦ ❡①♣r❡ss ✉s✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞
♠♦❞❡❧ t❤❛♥ ✇✐t❤ ❛ s❡t ♦❢ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥s✳
✻✳ ✧ ❆ ❣❡♥ts ❛r ❡ ♥♦t ❞❡ ❞✉❝t✐✈❡✳ ✧

✼✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
❆❝❦♥♦✇❧❡❞❣✐♥❣ ♣♦✐♥t ✺✱ ✇❡ s❛② t❤❛t ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t✬s ❛❝t✐♦♥ ✐s s✐♠✐❧❛r t♦ t❤❡ ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥
♦❢ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦♥ ❛ s❡t ♦❢ st❛t❡s ✭t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❡♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t st❛t❡s✮✳
❚❤✉s ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t✬s ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r✬s r❡s✉❧ts ❛r❡ ❞❡❞✉❝t✐♦♥s✳ ▼♦r❡♦✈❡r✱
t❤❡ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥♣✉t ❞❛t❛ ✭❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮ ✐♥t♦ ♦✉t♣✉t ✭♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✮
❞❛t❡ ✐s str✐❝t❧② ❞❡❞✉❝t✐❜❧❡ ❛♥❞ r❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡✳ ❲ ❡ ❝❛♥ r❡r✉♥ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤
t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ✐♥♣✉t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛♥❞ ♦❜t❛✐♥ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ r❡s✉❧ts ❡❛❝❤ t✐♠❡✳
✹✳✹✳✶ ❊q✉✐✈ ❛❧❡♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛♥❞ ❛
♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳
ș♥s✐❞❡ ❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♠❛r❦❡t s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥✱ ❛❣❡♥t ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦rs ❢♦❧❧♦✇ s✐♠♣❧❡ r✉❧❡s t❤❛t ❞❡❞✉❝❡
❛♥ ❛❝t✐♦♥ ✭♦r❞❡r✮ ❢r♦♠ ❛ s❡t ♦❢ ❡♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t st❛t❡s ✭✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ st❛t❡s ♦❢ ♦t❤❡r
❛❣❡♥ts✱ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✮✳ ❙✉❝❤ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ✐s ❡♥❝♦❞❡❞ ✐♥s✐❞❡ ❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♣r♦❣r❛♠ ✉s✐♥❣
❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡✳ ❆s ♣r♦✈❡❞ ❜② ❆❧❛♥ ❚ ✉r✐♥❣ ✭s❡❡ ✭ ❘✳❊ ✱ ✶✾✾✺ ✮✮ ❢♦r ❡✈❡r② ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r
♣r♦❣r❛♠ ✐t ❡①✐st ❛♥ ✐s♦♠♦r♣❤✐s♠ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②t✐❝❛❧ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✳ ❇✉✐❧❞✐♥❣
♦♥ t❤✐s ❢❛❝t ✇❡ s❤♦✇ ❤♦✇✱ ❛t ❛♥ ❛❜str❛❝t ❧❡✈❡❧✱ ❛♥ ❡♥t✐r❡ ❛❣❡♥t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ✐s
❡q✉✐✈ ❛❧❡♥t t♦ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧✳ ▲✐❦❡ ♠❛♥② ♦t❤❡rs s②st❡♠s✱ ❡✳❣✳ ✇❡❛t❤❡r s②st❡♠✱
s✉❝❤ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❝❛♥♥♦t ❜❡ ❛❧✇❛②s tr❛❝t❛❜❧❡ ❛♥❞ ✐t ✐s ♦❢t❡♥ ❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ ✇✐t❤
❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ❛♣♣r♦①✐♠❛t✐♦♥s✳
▲❡tf ❜❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❞❡✜♥❡s t❤❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦rs ♦❢ ❛♥ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❛❣❡♥t i ❛si✿
fi:A∗M/mapsto→Order ✭✹✳✻✮
A r❡♣r❡s❡♥ts t❤❡ s❡t ♦❢ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ♣♦ss✐❜❧❡ st❛t❡s ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ts ✭♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦s✱ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈❡s✱
r✐s❦ ✈✐❡✇ ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛t✐♦♥s✮✳ M r❡♣r❡s❡♥ts t❤❡ st❛t❡s ♦❢ t❤❡
♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ❛s ✇❡❧❧ ❛s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜♦✉t ♥❡①t st❛t❡s ✭❤✐st♦r✐❝ ♣r✐❝❡s✱ ✈♦❧✉♠❡s✱
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s✱ ❡t❝✮✳
❚❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❡✈♦❧✈❡s ❢r♦♠ ♦♥❡ st❛t❡ t♦ ❛♥♦t❤❡r ❛♥❞ t❤✐s ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ✐s ♠♦❞❡❧❡❞ ❜②
❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ m ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ❛s✿
m:M∗Ordern/mapsto→M ✭✹✳✼✮
✇❤❡r❡Order r❡♣r❡s❡♥ts t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ s❡t ♦❢ ♣♦ss✐❜❧❡ ♦r❞❡rs t❤❛t ❛r❡ s❡♥t t♦
❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ❛♥❞ n r❡♣r❡s❡♥ts t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ♦r❞❡rs ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ❝❛♥ ♣r♦❝❡ss
❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t✇♦ st❛t❡s✳ ❙✉❝❤ ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ❡①✐sts s✐♥❝❡ t❤❡ ♣r♦❝❡ss ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐s❝♦✈❡r② ✐s
❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐st✐❝ ❛♥❞ ✐t ❞❡♣❡♥❞s ♦♥❧② ♦♥ t❤❡ r❡❝❡✐✈❡❞ ♦r❞❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❧❛st ♠❛r❦❡t st❛t❡✳
❆❢t❡r ❛ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t st❛t❡s t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ts✬ st❛t❡s ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✭t❤❡✐r ✇❡❛❧t❤ ❡✈♦❧✈❡s✮✳
❚❤✐s ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✐s ♠♦❞❡❧❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ❣ ✇✐t❤ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs t❤❛t ❞❡♣❡♥❞ ♦♥ ❡❛❝❤
✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❛❣❡♥t ✐✿
gi:A∗Order∗M/mapsto→A ✭✹✳✽✮

✹✳✹✳ ❈r✐t✐❝s ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛s ❛ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ❢♦r
r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✼✼
❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❡q✉✐✈ ❛❧❡♥t t♦ t❤❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ s❡t ♦❢
❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s ❧✐❦❡
A0
1..n− ❛❣❡♥t ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ st❛t❡s
M0− ♠❛r❦❡t ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ st❛t❡
Mt=m(Mt−1,fi(At−1
i,Mt−1))
At
i=gi(At−1
i,Mt)✭✹✳✾✮
❚❤❡ ✜rst t✇♦ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ t❤❡ s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✭✇❤✐❝❤ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡s
❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t✬s ❡♥❞♦✇♠❡♥ts ✭✇❡❛❧t❤ ❛♥❞ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r✮✳ ❚❤✐s
♣❛rt ❡q✉❛t❡s t♦ t❤❡ s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧❡❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✇❡
♠❛❦❡ ❛❜♦✉t ❛❣❡♥t✬s ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦rs✳ ❚❤❡ ❧❛st t✇♦ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s r❡♣r❡s❡♥t t❤❡ ❝♦✲❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥
♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❛♥❞ ❛❣❡♥t st❛t❡s✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧
❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡ ♦♥❧② ✐❢ t❤❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦rs ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ts ✭❛♥❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮ ❛r❡ ❡❛s✐❧②
tr❛♥s❧❛t❛❜❧❡ ✐♥t♦ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s ✭✇❤✐❝❤ ✐s ♦❢t❡♥ ♥♦t t❤❡ ❝❛s❡✮✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r
s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛❧❧♦✇s ✉s t♦ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ s❡r✐❡s Mt✭♠❛r❦❡t ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s✿ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥✱
✈♦❧✉♠❡s✱ ♣r✐❝❡s✮ ❛♥❞ At✭✐♥✈❡st♦r ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s✿ ❝❛s❤✱ st♦❝❦s✱ r✐s❦ ❛✈❡rs✐♦♥✱ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t
❤♦r✐③♦♥✱ ❡t❝✮ ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❡✐r st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣✳

❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺
❈♦♥tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r
✭▲❯▼❆✮
❈♦♥t❡♥ts
✺✳✶ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r✱ ❡♥ ✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥ t ❛♥❞ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✾
✺✳✷ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✶
✺✳✸ ❖r❞❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✹
✺✳✸✳✶ ❖r❞❡rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✹
✺✳✸✳✷ Pr✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✻
✺✳✹ ❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts✱ t❤❡✐r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✶
✺✳✹✳✶ ❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ t ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✶
✺✳✹✳✷ ❚❤❡ ❜✐❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✸
✺✳✹✳✸ ❚❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✹
✺✳✺ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ❝♦♥✜❣✉r❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✷
✯▲❯▼❆ ✐s ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ♦♥❧✐♥❡ ✭❛❧♦♥❣ ✇✐t❤ ❞❡t❛✐❧❡❞ ✐♥str✉❝t✐♦♥s✮ ❛t
❤ tt♣✿✴✴❝❡r❛❣✳♦r❣✴❧✉❝✐❛♥st❛♥❝✐✉✴▲❯▼❆✴✐♥❞❡①✳❤ t♠❧
✺✳✶ ❙✐♠✉❧❛t♦r✱ ❡♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s
❚❤❡ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r✲❜❛s❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❝r❡❛t❡❞ ✐s ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ▲❯▼❆✳
❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r✬s ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ✐s t♦ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡ ❛ s❡r✐❡s ♦❢ r❡❛❧✐st✐❝ ❞❛✐❧② st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦❡t
♦♣❡♥✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡s ✳ ș♥ ♦t❤❡r ✇ ♦r❞s✱ ✇ ❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡ t❤❡ ❡①tr❛✲❞❛② ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s ✐♥ ❛
st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❚❤✐s ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣ t✐♠❡ ✐s ❥✉st✐✜❡❞ ❜ ② t ✇ ♦ r❡❛s♦♥s✿ ✶✮ ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s
♦❢ ✐♥ tr❛✲❞❛ ② ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉♦✉s tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✐♥❝♦r♣ ♦r❛t❡ ♠ ✉❝ ❤ ♠♦r❡ ♥♦✐s❡ ❛♥❞ ❧❡ss ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❛❜ ♦✉t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s t❤❛♥ ❞✉r✐♥❣ ❡①tr❛✲❞❛ ② tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✭st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ♦❢
t❤❡s❡ ✐♥ tr❛❞❛ ② ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧② r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥ t ❢♦r ♦✉r r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s✮ ❛♥❞
✷✮ ♠♦st ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ st✉❞✐❡s✱ ❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧② r❡❣❛r❞✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r
❜✐❛s❡s✱ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❞❛✐❧② ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s ❛s r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡✳
▲❯▼❆ r❡♣❧✐❝❛t❡s ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❢♦r♠❡❞ ❜ ② t ✇ ♦ ❛ss❡ts✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❛r❡ ❛❝❝❡ss✐❜❧❡
t♦ ❛❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✿ ❛ r✐s❦✲❢r❡❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❛ss❡t ✇✐t❤ ❛ ✵✪ r❡t✉r♥ ❛♥❞ ❛ r✐s❦② ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
❛ss❡t t❤❛t✱ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥✱ ♣❛ ②s ♥♦ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s✳ ❚❤❡ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❛
✵✪ ❜ ♦♥❞ ✐s ♠❛❞❡ ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ s✐♠♣❧✐❢② t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❛♥❞ ✐t ❤❛s ♥♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦♥ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡

✽✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺✳ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮
❞②♥❛♠✐❝s✳ ❖♥❡ ❝❛♥ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r t❤❛t ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✬s ❝❛s❤ ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t ❛❝❝✉♠ ✉❧❛t❡ ✐♥ t❡r❡st
❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♦♥❧② ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ ❣❛✐♥s ❛r❡ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ❣❛✐♥s ❢r♦♠ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐♥❣ ✐♥ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t✳ ❚❤✐s
❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t ❧✐♠✐t ♦✉r r❡s✉❧ts ❛♥❞ ✐t ❤❛s ❜ ❡❡♥ ✉s❡❞ ✐♥ ♦t❤❡r ♣✉❜❧✐s❤❡❞
st✉❞✐❡s ❧✐❦ ❡ ✭ ❋ ❛r♠❡r ❛♥❞ ❏♦s❤✐ ✱ ✷✵✵✵ ✮✳
Price formation
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Order
OrderMarket prices
Fundamental
evolution+Bias
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❋✐❣✉r❡ ✺✳✶✿ ❋❧♦✇ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥s✐❞❡ t❤❡ ▲❯▼❆ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r
❚❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❛❣❡♥ts✮ t❤❛t ❛r❡ ♠♦❞❡❧❧❡❞ ✐♥ ▲❯▼❆ r❡❝❡✐✈❡ ❛ ✢♦✇ ♦❢ ❜✐✲
❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ ✇❛② s♣❡❝✐✜❝ t♦ ❡✈❡r② ❛❣❡♥t✳ ❚❤❡
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ r❡❝❡✐✈❡❞ ❜② ❛❣❡♥ts ✐s ✉s❡❞ t♦ ♠❛❦❡ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ✭❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦
❡❛❝❤ ❛❣❡♥t✬s s✉❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛t✐♦♥s✮✳ ❋ ♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥✱ ❛❣❡♥ts
s❡♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t t♦ ❜✉② ♦r s❡❧❧ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡ts ✭s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✺✳✶ ✮✳ ❆❢t❡r ❛
s❤♦rt ♣❡r✐♦❞ ♦❢ t✐♠❡✱ ❞✉r✐♥❣ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛❧❧ ❛❣❡♥ts ❤❛✈❡ t❤❡ ❝❤❛♥❝❡ t♦ s❡♥❞ t❤❡✐r ♦r❞❡rs t♦
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t✱ t❤❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ❡♥❞s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❞✐s❝♦✈❡r❡❞✳ ❚❤✐s
♣r♦❝❡ss ❧❛sts ❢♦r ❛ ♣r❡❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡❞ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ r♦✉♥❞s ✭✉♥❦♥♦✇♥ t♦ ❛❣❡♥ts✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡
r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ s❡r✐❡s ✭♣r✐❝❡✱ r❡t✉r♥s✱ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t②✮ ❛r❡ ❛♥❛❧②s❡❞✳
❆❣❡♥ts st❛rt ❛ tr❛❞✐♥❣ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❝✉st♦♠✐③❛❜❧❡ ❛♠♦✉♥t ♦❢ ❝❛s❤✱ ♥✉♠❜❡r
♦❢ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡ts✱ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❜✐❛s✐♥❣ ♣r♦♣❡rt✐❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ♠❡t❤♦❞s✳
❆❧❧ ❛❣❡♥ts ✐♥ ▲❯▼❆ ❤❛✈❡ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s t❤❛t ❞♦ ♥♦t ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❝♦✉rs❡ ♦❢ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡
s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✭❡①♣❡❝t ❢♦r t❤❡✐r ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ ❝❛s❤ ❛♥❞ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡ts✮✳ ❚❤✐s ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❞♦ ♥♦t ❛❝t✐✈❡❧② ❛❞❛♣t ✭❧❡❛r♥✮ t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❆❧t❤♦✉❣❤ ✐t ✐s tr✉❡ t❤❛t
♥♦ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❝❤❛♥❣❡s str❛t❡❣② ✭♦r ♦t❤❡r ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✮ ❞✉r✐♥❣ ❛ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥✱
✇❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❛t ❛ ❢♦r♠ ♦❢ ✧❉❛r✇✐♥✐❛♥ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥✧ t❛❦❡s ♣❧❛❝❡✳ ❯♥❞❡r♣❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❧♦s❡ t❤❡✐r ❝❛s❤ t♦ ❜❡tt❡r ♣❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭s❡❡ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✮✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t
❝❤❛♣t❡rs ✇❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ✐♥ ❞❡t❛✐❧ ❡✈❡r② ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t ♦❢ t❤❡ ▲❯▼❆ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ❛♥❞ ✇❡

✺✳✷✳ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✽✶
❝♦♥❝❧✉❞❡ ❜ ② s❤♦ ✇✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts ♦❢ ❛ ❢❡✇ ❜❛s✐❝s t❡st ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t✳
✺✳✷ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
❆ ❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ t❤❡ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ♠♦ ❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥✱ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ✐s ❞❡✜♥❡❞
❛s t❤❡ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t❡❞ s✉♠ ♦❢ ❛❧❧ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣❛ ②♠❡♥ ts t❤❛t ❛r❡ r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✳ ❚ ♦
❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤✐s ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ♠ ✉st ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡s❡
❢✉t✉r❡ ♣❛ ②♠❡♥ ts✱ t❤❡✐r ❛♠♦✉♥ ts ❛♥❞ ❞❛t❡s ♦❢ ❛rr✐✈ ❛❧s✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ♠ ✉st
❛❧s♦ ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t r❛t❡s ❢♦r ❡❛❝ ❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤ ✢♦ ✇s✳ ❚ ♦ s✐♠♣❧✐❢②
t❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠✱ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t✐♥❣ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❢❡❛t✉r❡s ♦r r❡❞✉❝✐♥❣ t❤❡
♠♦ ❞❡❧✬s ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛❜✐❧✐t ② ✱ ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✱ ❛ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②✬s st♦ ❝ ❦✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ♣❛ ②s
♥♦ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s✳ ❚❤ ✉s✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ♦♥❧② ♠❛❦ ❡ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ❣❛✐♥s ❛♥❞ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ ♣✐❡❝❡
♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r ❛♥❞✴♦r ♣r❡❞✐❝t ✲ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❙✐♥❝❡ t❤❡ ❝❛s❤
♦ ✇♥❡❞ ❜ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦ ❡s♥✬t ♦✛❡r ❛♥ ② r❡t✉r♥✱ ✐t ✐s ✬r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✬ ❢♦r t❤❡♠ t♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st ❛❧❧ ♦❢
t❤❡✐r ❝❛s❤ ✐♥ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t ✭♦❢ ❝♦✉rs❡✱ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡② ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ✐t ✐s ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡✮✳ ❆♥❞ ✐♥
♦r❞❡r t♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✱ ❛❣❡♥ ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t♦ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r ❤♦ ✇ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ❤❛s
❡✈ ♦❧✈ ❡❞✳ ❚❤❡② ❞♦ t❤✐s ❜ ② ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t✐♥❣✱ ✈✐❛ t❤❡✐r ♦ ✇♥ ♣ ❡rs♦♥❛❧ ❜✐❛s❡s✱ ❛♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠✳ ❲ ❡ ❝❛❧❧ t❤✐s str❡❛♠ ♦❢ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✳
❚❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❤❛s ❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞ ✐t ✐s ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡❞✱
❢♦r ❡❛❝ ❤ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥✱ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠ ✉❧❛ ❜ ❡❧♦ ✇ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ t ✇ ♦ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs t❤❛t
❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧✬s r❡t✉r♥ ❛♥❞ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥✿
Vt=Vt−1∗eN(µV,σV),∀t >0 ❛♥❞V0=M=P0 ✭✺✳✶✮
✇❤❡r❡M ✐s t❤❡ st❛rt✐♥❣ șP❖ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ st♦ ❝ ❦✱ µV ✐s t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ r❡t✉r♥ ❛♥❞ σV
t❤❡ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧✬s r❡t✉r♥ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ❛♥❞ Po ✐s t❤❡ ✜rst ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♣r✐❝❡ ✭✜①❡❞ ❡①♦❣❡♥♦✉s❧② s✐♠✐❧❛r❧② t♦ ❛♥ șP❖ ♣r✐❝✐♥❣✮✳
❚❤✐s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐s✱ ❧✐❦ ❡ ✐♥ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱ ♥♦t ✈✐s✐❜❧❡ t♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❲ ❡
s❛ ② t❤❛t t❤✐s ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐s ♥♦t ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛❜❧❡ ❛t ❧❡❛st ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ s❤❡❡r ❝♦♠♣❧❡①✐t ② ♦❢
❛ ❧✐st❡❞ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s t❤❡ ❣r❡❛t ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ r❡♠♦t❡ ❡♥ t✐t✐❡s✴❡✈ ❡♥ ts t❤❛t ❝❛♥
❛✛❡❝t✱ ✐♥ ❡✈ ❡r② ♠♦♠❡♥ t✱ t❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ✐♥ ❝♦♠♣✉t✐♥❣ t❤✐s
❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ s✐♠♣❧✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ♠❛❞❡ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ r❡♥❞❡r
t❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ str❡❛♠ ♥♦t ❞✐r❡❝t❧② ✈✐s✐❜❧❡ t♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❚❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts t❤❛t
♣r❡❢❡r ♥♦t ❡✈ ❡♥ t♦ s❡❡❦ t❤✐s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ ♦♥❧② t♦ ♣❧❛ ② ✬t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✬✳
❨ ❡t ❢♦r ♦t❤❡r ❛❣❡♥ ts✱ t❤❛t ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡s s❤♦✉❧❞ r❡✢❡❝t t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✱
❛ str❡❛♠ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ♥❡❡❞❡❞✳
❲ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❝ ❤♦s❡♥ ❛♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠✱ It ✱ t❤❛t ♦✛❡rs ❛ s✐❣♥❛❧ ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ✬❞✐s✲
t❛♥❝❡✬ ✭✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡ t❡r♠s✮ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ❛t t❤❡ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ ❛
tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❛t t❤❡ ❜ ❡❣✐♥♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✿
It=Vt+1−Pt ✭✺✳✷✮

✽✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺✳ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮
❙✐♥❝❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs tr② ✱ ❛t ❧❡❛st ✐♥ t❤❡♦r② ✱ t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ✬r❡❛❧✬ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛ st♦ ❝ ❦ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥
s❛ ② t❤❛tPt r❡♣r❡s❡♥ ts t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✬s ❡st✐♠❛t❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛t t✐♠❡
t✳ ❲ ❡ ❝❛♥ r❡✇r✐t❡ ❢♦r♠ ✉❧❛ ✺✳✷ ❛s✿
It=Vt+1−Em,t(Vt) ✭✺✳✸✮
✇❤❡r❡Em,t st❛♥❞s ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✬s ✭♠✮ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ ❛t t✐♠❡ t✱ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥✲
❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ❛t t✐♠❡ t✳ ▲♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ❛t ✺✳✷ ✇ ❡ s❛ ② t❤❛t t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ r❡❢❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ❛♠♦✉♥ t ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❢r♦♠ t✐♠❡ t t♦
t✰✶✳ ș♥ ♦t❤❡r ✇ ♦r❞s✱ t❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ r❡❢❡rs t♦ ❤♦ ✇ ♠ ✉❝ ❤ t❤❡ r❡❛❧ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
❤❛s ❡✈ ♦❧✈ ❡❞ ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✬s ❧❛t❡st ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳
ș♥ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱ ✺✳✹ ❧♦ ♦❦s ♠♦r❡ ❧✐❦ ❡
It=Ea,t(Vt+1)−Em,t(Vt) ✭✺✳✹✮
✇❤❡r❡Ea,t r❡♣r❡s❡♥ ts t❤❡ ❜ ❡st ❝♦♠ ❜✐♥❡❞ ❡st✐♠❛t❡s ♦❢ ❛♥❛❧②sts✱ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐sts✱ ❡t❝✳ ♦❢
t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②✬s ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ș♥ r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♦♥❧② ❡st✐♠❛t❡s ♦❢ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❡✐t❤❡r ♠❛r❦ ❡t✲❜❛s❡❞ ✭t❤r♦✉❣❤ ♣r✐❝❡✮ ♦r ♥♦♥✲♠❛r❦ ❡t✲❜❛s❡❞ ✭❛♥❛❧②st✱
r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ❛♥❞ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ♦♣✐♥✐♦♥s✮✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ s✉❝ ❤ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ♥♦t
✈ ❡r② ✉s❡❢✉❧ ✐♥ ✐ts❡❧❢ ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❝ ❤♦s❡♥ t♦ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠ r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡❞ ❜ ②
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛s ❛ s❡r✐❡s ♦❢ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡s s✐❣♥❛❧s r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✳
Period 0M=Vo
Period tVtVt+1
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✺✳✷✿ ❚ r❛❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ❛♥❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✢♦ ✇s
❆ t t❤❡ ❜ ❡❣✐♥♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❛ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ t t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ♠♦ ✈ ❡s
✐♥st❛♥ t❧② ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ Vt t♦Vt+1 ✳ ❆❣❡♥ ts ❝❛♥ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❧❛t❡st ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ Pt

✺✳✷✳ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✽✸
❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ It t❤❛t t❡❧❧s t❤❡♠ ❤♦ ✇ ❝❧♦s❡✴❢❛r ✐s t❤✐s ❧❛t❡st ♠❛r❦ ❡t
❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭P t✮ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t Vt+1 ✳ ❉✉r✐♥❣ t❤✐s
tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ t✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t x ✇✐❧❧ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t ✭t❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡✐r ♦ ✇♥ ♣ ❡rs♦♥❛❧ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s✮ t❤❡
❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭ It,x ✮ ❛♥❞ ✉s❡ ❤✐s ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t str❛t❡❣✐❡s t♦ s❡♥❞
♦r❞❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❆ t t❤❡ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✱ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✱ Pt+1 ✱ s❤♦✉❧❞
✐♥ t❤❡♦r② ❜ ❡ ❡q✉❛❧ ✭♦r ✈ ❡r② ❝❧♦s❡✮ t♦ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ Vt+1 ✳ șt
✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t t♦ ✉♥❞❡r❧✐♥❡ t❤❛t ❛t t❤❡ ❜ ❡❣✐♥♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ t✱ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ✐♥st❛♥ t❧② ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡s ❢r♦♠ Vt t♦Vt+1 ✳ ❖♥❧② ❛❢t❡r t❤✐s ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ♦ ❝❝✉rs t❤❡
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠ It✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ❞✉r✐♥❣ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ t
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐❧❧ tr② t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ❛ss❡t✬s ✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ Vt+1 ✳
▲♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ❛t t❤❡ str✉❝t✉r❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ s✐❣♥❛❧✱ ✐t ✐s ❡❛s② t♦ s❡❡ t❤❛t ❛♥
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝❛♥ s✐♠♣❧② ❛❞❞ t❤❡ s✐❣♥❛❧ It t♦ t❤❡ ❧❛st ❦♥♦ ✇♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ Pt ❛♥❞ ♦❜t❛✐♥ t❤❡
♥❡✇ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ Vt+1 ✳ ❲❤✐❧❡ t❤✐s ✐s tr✉❡✱ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✐♥ ♣s②❝ ❤♦❧♦❣② ❤❛s s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞
t❤❛t ❤ ✉♠❛♥s ❝❛♥ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ✈ ❡r② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♣ ❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝ts✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ t❤❡
s❛♠❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠ It ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ♣ ❡r ❝ ❡✐✈❡ ❞ ✭♦r ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❡❞✮ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t❧② ❜ ② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t
❛❣❡♥ ts✳ ❲ ❡ r❡❢❡r t♦ ❛♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ It<0 ✱ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t✐♥❣ ❛ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡ ✐♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ ❛s ✬❜❛❞ ♥❡✇s✬ ❛♥❞ s✐♠✐❧❛r❧② ❛♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ It>0 ✱ s❤♦ ✇✐♥❣ ❛♥ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ✐♥
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❧❛st ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✱ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ r❡❢❡rr❡❞ ❛s ✬❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♥❡✇s✬✳
❚ ♦ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❜ ❡tt❡r t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠ t❤❛t ❛❣❡♥ ts r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡ ✇ ❡ s❤♦ ✇ ✐♥
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✺✳✸ t❤❡ ❝♦✲❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥✳ ❲ ❡ s❡❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t st❛rts ❛t t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ ❛❢t❡r✇ ❛r❞s ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇s t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♠♦r❡ ♦r ❧❡ss ❝❧♦s❡❧② ✳

✽✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺✳ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮
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❋✐❣✉r❡ ✺✳✸✿ ❋ ✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r✲
♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠
❖✉r ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❛ss❡t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❡♥❛❜❧❡s ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t♦ ❢♦❝✉s ♦♥❧② ♦♥ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥✲
t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✳ ❖❢ ❝♦✉rs❡✱ ❧✐❦❡ ✐♥ ❛♥② ♠♦❞❡❧✱ t❤✐s ✐s ❛ s✐♠♣❧✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤✐❝❤
✐s r❛r❡❧② ❢♦✉♥❞ ✐♥ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✇❤❡r❡ ❛ss❡ts ❛♥❞ ❛ss❡t ❝❧❛ss❡s ❛r❡ ✐♥t❡r❧✐♥❦❡❞ ❛♥❞
t❤❡✐r ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❞❡♣❡♥❞s ♦♥ ♠✉❝❤ ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✇❡
s✉♣♣♦s❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠ ❛✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡✱ t❤❡ tr❛❞❡❞ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ ❡♥❝❛♣s✉❧❛t❡s ♥♦t❡ ♦♥❧② ❛ss❡t✲s♣❡❝✐✜❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❜✉t ❛❧s♦ ♠❛❝r♦✲❡♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳
❚❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ♦❜❥❡ ❝t✐✈❡ ♦❢ ♦✉r st✉❞② ✐s ❢♦ ❝✉s❡ ❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ ✇❛②s ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛✲
t✐♦♥✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡s t❤❡ ✈❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✱ ✐s ❝ ♦♥✈❡rt❡ ❞ ❛♥❞ tr ❛♥s❢♦r♠❡ ❞✱ t❤r ♦✉❣❤
t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❝✐s✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ❛❣❡♥ts✱ ✐♥t♦ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝ ❡✳
✺✳✸ ❖r❞❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠
✺✳✸✳✶ ❖r❞❡rs
❉✉r✐♥❣ ❛ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣❡r✐♦❞✱ ❛❣❡♥ts ✉s❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ s❡♥❞ ❧✐♠✐t ♦r ♠❛r❦❡t
♦r❞❡rs t♦ t❤❡ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡ st♦r❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦ ✉♥t✐❧ t❤❡
❡♥❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞✳ ❆t t❤❡ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ ❛ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣❡r✐♦❞✱ t❤❡ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦ ✐s ❝❧♦s❡❞ ❛♥❞
t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐s❝♦✈❡r② ♣r♦❝❡ss ❜❡❣✐♥s✳ ❆s ♣♦✐♥t❡❞ ♦✉t ❜② ❇❧❛❦❡ ▲❡❇❛r♦♥ ✐♥ ✭ ❚ ❡s❢❛ts✐♦♥ ✱
✷✵✵✻❛ ✮t❤❡ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡s t❤❡ ♠♦st r❡❛❧✐st✐❝ ♠❡t❤♦❞ ❢♦r ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳

✺✳✸✳ ❖r❞❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✽✺
❲ ❡ ✜rst ♣r❡s❡♥t t❤❡ str✉❝t✉r❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ♦r❞❡r ❛♥❞ t❤❡♥ s❤♦✇ ❤♦✇ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s
❞✐s❝♦✈❡r❡❞ ❢r♦♠ ❛ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦✳
❆❢t❡r r❡❝❡✐✈✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❛♥❛❧②s✐♥❣ ♥❡✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ❛❣❡♥ts s❡♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❆♥ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ♦r❞❡r ❤❛s ❢♦✉r ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❧✐❦❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ t❛❜❧❡ ❜❡❧♦✇✿
❚❤❡ ✜rst ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r✱ ❆❣❡♥ t ș❉ ✱ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ts ❛♥ ✐❞❡♥t✐✜❡r t❤❛t ✉♥✐q✉❡❧② ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡s
❡❛❝❤ ❛❣❡♥t✳ ❯s✐♥❣ t❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❝❛♥ r❡s♦❧✈❡ ♠❛t❝❤✐♥❣ ♦r❞❡rs ❛♥❞
♠❛❦❡s t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t tr❛♥s❢❡rs ♦❢ ❝❛s❤ ❛♥❞ ❛ss❡ts ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❝♦✉♥t❡r♣❛rts ♦❢ ❛ tr❛♥s✲
❛❝t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤❡ s❡❝♦♥❞ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r✱ ❉✐r❡❝t✐♦♥ ✱ s✐❣♥❛❧s ✇❤❡t❤❡r ❛❣❡♥t ✇❛♥ts t♦ ❜✉② ♦r
s❡❧❧ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❚❤✐s ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ✐s ❛❧s♦ r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥t ❢♦r t❤❡ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ t❤✐r❞ ✭❛♥❞
❢♦✉rt❤ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r✮ t❤❛t ❤❛s ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣s ❞❡♣❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ t❤❡ ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡
♦r❞❡r✳ ❚❤❡ t❤✐r❞ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r✱ ◆✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts ✱ ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡s t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❞❡s✐r❡❞
♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t ✭✐❞❡♥t✐✜❡❞ ❜② ❆❣❡♥t ș❉✮ ✐s ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ ❜✉② ♦r s❡❧❧✳ ❚❤✐s
✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t ✐♥✈♦❧✈❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ ❤❛✈❡ ❤✐s ♦r❞❡r ❡①❡❝✉t❡❞ ✇✐t❤
t❤❡ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ ♦❢ ❛t ♠♦st t❤✐s ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts ♦r ♦❢ ❛ s♠❛❧❧❡r ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❋ ♦r
❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ș❉ ✸✱ s❡❡ ✱ ✇❛♥ts t♦ ❜✉② ✶✵ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❚❤✐s ♦r❞❡r ❝❛♥ ❜❡
❡①❡❝✉t❡❞ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t r❡❝❡✐✈✐♥❣ ✶✱ ✷✱ ✸ ✉♣ t♦ ✶✵ ❛ss❡ts✳
❚❤❡ ❢♦✉rt❤ ❛♥❞ ❧❛st ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r✱ ▼❛①✴▼✐♥ ❛♠♦✉♥ t ✱ ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡s t❤❡ ♠❛①✐✲
♠✉♠✴♠✐♥✐♠✉♠ ♣r✐❝❡ ❛t ✇❤✐❝❤ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t ✐s ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ ❜✉②✴s❡❧❧ ❛ss❡ts✳ ▲♦♦❦✐♥❣ ❛t
t❤❡ ♦r❞❡r ❧✐st❡❞ ✐♥ ✇❡ s❡❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t ✇✐t❤ ș❉ ✺ ✐s ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ s❡❧❧ ✶✺ ❛ss❡ts ❢r♦♠
❤✐s ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❛t ❛ ♠✐♥✐♠✉♠ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ ✽ ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ❛ss❡t✳ ș❢ t❤❡ ♦r❞❡r ✐s ❡①❡❝✉t❡❞✱ t❤❡
❛❣❡♥t ✐s ❣✉❛r❛♥t❡❡❞ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❛t ❧❡❛st ✽ ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ❛ss❡t s♦❧❞✳
ș♥ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✱ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ♥♦✇ ♥✉♠❡r♦✉s ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t✐❡s t♦ ❝✉st♦♠✐③❡ t❤❡✐r
♦r❞❡rs ❧✐❦❡✿
✶✳ ❚ r✐❣❣❡r ♦r❞❡rs ✲ ❛t ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ❛ ♥❡✇ ♦r❞❡r ✐s ❝r❡❛t❡❞ t♦ ❜✉②✴s❡❧❧ ❛ss❡ts
❛t t❤❡ ❜❡st ♣r✐❝❡ ♣♦ss✐❜❧❡✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡ ✉s❡❞ t♦ ❧✐♠✐t ❧♦ss❡s ❛♥❞ t♦ ❝❛s❤ ✐♥
♦♥ ❣❛✐♥s✱ q✉✐❝❦❧② ❛♥❞ s❛❢❡❧② ✳
✷✳ ◗✉❛♥ t✐t ② ♦r❞❡rs ✲ t❤❡② ❛r❡ s✐♠✐❧❛r t♦ ♦✉r ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡② ❤❛✈❡ ❛ q✉❛♥✲
t✐t② r❡str✐❝t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❢♦r❝❡s t❤❡ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ❜❡ ❡①❡❝✉t❡❞ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❡♥t✐r❡ s♣❡❝✐✜❡❞
q✉❛♥t✐t② ✭❜✉②✴s❡❧❧ ❛❧❧ ♦r ❝❛♥❝❡❧ t❤❡ ♦r❞❡r✮✳
✸✳ ❙tr❛t❡❣✐❝ ♦r❞❡rs ✲ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ♦r❞❡rs ❧✐❦❡✿ ❜✉② ♦r s❡❧❧ ✇❤❡♥ ♣r✐❝❡
❣♦❡s ✉♣ ①✪✱ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❡ ♦r❞❡rs t❤❛t s♣❡❝✐❢② ❜✉②✐♥❣ ❛t ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦r s❡❧❧✐♥❣
❛t ❛♥♦t❤❡r ♣r✐❝❡ ✭❛♥❞ ♦♥❧② ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ♦r❞❡rs ✐s ❡①❡❝✉t❡❞✮✳
❚❤❡s❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① ♦r❞❡rs ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❛❝❤✐❡✈❡❞ t❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t s✐♠✲
♣❧❡ ♦r❞❡rs✳ ❚❤❡② ❛r❡ ❝♦♥❝❡✐✈❡❞ t♦ ❛❞❞r❡ss s♣❡❝✐✜❝ ♥❡❡❞s ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ❢♦❝✉s❡❞
❆❣❡♥t ș❉ ❉✐r❡❝t✐♦♥ ◆✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts ▼❛①✴▼✐♥ ❆♠♦✉♥t
✸ ❇✉② ✶✵ ✼✳✺
✺ ❙❡❧❧ ✶✺ ✽
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✶✿ ❚❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥ts ♦❢ ❛ ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡r

✽✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺✳ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮
♦♥ ✐♥ tr❛✲❞❛ ② tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♦♣ ❡r❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❉✉❡ t♦ t❤❡ ♥❛t✉r❡ ♦❢ ♦✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r✱ ❡①tr❛✲❞❛ ②
tr❛❞✐♥❣✱ t❤❡ ♦r❞❡rs ✇ ❡ ✉s❡ ✭❧✐♠✐t ♦r ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦r❞❡rs✮ ❛r❡ s✉✣❝✐❡♥ t t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡ r❡❛❧✐st✐❝
♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s✳
✺✳✸✳✷ Pr✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠
❉✉r✐♥❣ ❡❛❝ ❤ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ ❛❣❡♥ ts s❡♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❆❧❧ t❤❡s❡ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡
r❡❝♦r❞❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜ ♦ ♦❦✳ ❆ t t❤❡ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✱ t❤❡ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r
❜ ♦ ♦❦ st♦♣s ❛❝❝❡♣t✐♥❣ ♥❡✇ ♦r❞❡rs ❛♥❞ ❛ ♣r♦ ❝❡❞✉r❡ ❢♦r ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ❛ss❡t
♣r✐❝❡ ✐s st❛rt❡❞✳ ❆❢t❡r t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❞✐ss❡♠✐♥❛t❡❞ t♦ ❛❣❡♥ ts✱ ❛❧❧
♠❛t❝ ❤✐♥❣ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡ r❡s♦❧✈ ❡❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ r❡♠❛✐♥✐♥❣ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡ ❞✐s❝❛r❞❡❞✱ ❧❡❛ ✈✐♥❣ t❤❡
❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜ ♦ ♦❦ ♣r❡♣❛r❡❞ ❢♦r ❛ ♥❡✇ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✳
❚❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ❢♦✉r st❡♣ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤✳ ❊✈ ❡r② st❡♣ ❤❛s
❛ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ t♦ ❛❝❝♦♠♣❧✐s❤✳ ❆ t ❡❛❝ ❤ st❡♣ ✇ ❡ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ ❛♠♦♥❣ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡s s❡❧❡❝t❡❞
❛t t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s st❡♣ t❤♦s❡ ♣r✐❝❡s t❤❛t s❛t✐s❢② t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳ Pr♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ ❛ st❡♣
♦✛❡rs ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ♦♥❡ ♣r✐❝❡ t❤❛t s❛t✐s✜❡s ✐ts ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ✇ ❡ ✉s❡ t❤✐s ❧✐st ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ❣♦
t♦ t❤❡ ♥❡①t st❡♣✳ ș❢ ✇ ❡ ❛rr✐✈ ❡ ❛t ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ ♣r✐❝❡ q✉♦t❡✱ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ st♦♣s ❛♥❞
t❤✐s s✐♥❣❧❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ✉s❡❞ ❛s t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✳ ș❢ ✇ ❡ r❡❛❝ ❤ t❤❡ ✜♥❛❧ st❡♣ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❤❛ ✈✐♥❣ ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ♦♥❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ ♣r✐❝❡✱ ✇ ❡ ✉s❡ ❛ s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧ ✜①✐♥❣ ♣r♦ ❝❡❞✉r❡
✉s✐♥❣ ❛s r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✳
❆ t t❤❡ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ ❡❛❝ ❤ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ ✇ ❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇✐♥❣
✹ st❡♣s✿
✶✳ ❙t❡♣ ✶ ✇✐❧❧ s❡❧❡❝t ♣r✐❝❡s t❤❛t ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ t❤❡ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ ❡①❡❝✉t❛❜❧❡ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥s✳
❆ t ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✱ t❤❡ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥s ✐s ❣✐✈ ❡♥ ❜ ② t❤❡ ♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥
t❤❡ ❝✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ❜✉② ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧ q✉❛♥ t✐t✐❡s ❞❡♠❛♥❞❡❞✳ ❲ ❡ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠
✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ✇ ❡ s❡❛r❝ ❤ ♣r✐❝❡s t❤❛t ❛❝❝♦♠♣❧✐s❤ t❤✐s ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡✳ ș❢
t❤❡r❡ ✐s ♦♥❧② ♦♥❡ ♣r✐❝❡ t❤❛t ❛❝ ❤✐❡✈ ❡s t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡✱ ✇ ❡ s❡❧❡❝t t❤✐s ♣r✐❝❡
❛s ♦✉r ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r② st♦♣s✳ ș❢ t❤❡r❡ ✐s
♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ♦♥❡ ♣r✐❝❡ t❤❛t ❛❧❧♦ ✇s ❢♦r t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥s
✇ ❡ ❤♦❧❞ t❤✐s ❧✐st ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ♠♦ ✈ ❡ t♦ t❤❡ ♥❡①t st❡♣✳
✷✳ ❙t❡♣ ✷ ✇✐❧❧ s❡❧❡❝t t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡s t❤❛t ♠✐♥✐♠✐③❡ t❤❡ ✉♥✜❧❧❡❞ ♦r ✉♥♠❛t❝ ❤❡❞ q✉❛♥ t✐t✐❡s
❞❡♠❛♥❞❡❞ ❢♦r s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❜✉②✐♥❣✳ ❋ ♦r ❛❧❧ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❛t t❤✐s st❡♣✱ t❤❛t ❛❧❧♦ ✇
❢♦r ❛ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ❡①❡❝✉t❛❜❧❡ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡✱ ✇ ❡ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ ♠✐♥✐♠ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ♦❢ s✉r♣❧✉s✳ ❚❤❡
❧❡✈ ❡❧ ♦❢ s✉r♣❧✉s ✐s t❤❡ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❝✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ❜✉② q✉❛♥ t✐t✐❡s
❛♥❞ ❝✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ s❡❧❧ q✉❛♥ t✐t✐❡s ❛t t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✳ ❯s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠
s✉r♣❧✉s ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ✇ ❡ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡ ♣r✐❝❡s t❤❛t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ s✉r♣❧✉s t❤❛t ✐s ❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❛♥ t❤✐s
♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠✳ ❲ ❡ ❛r❡ ❧❡❢t ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❧✐st ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s t❤❛t ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ ❡①❡❝✉t❛❜❧❡ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡
❛♥❞ ♠✐♥✐♠✐③❡ t❤❡ s✉r♣❧✉s ♦❢ ✉♥r❡s♦❧✈ ❡❞ ♦r❞❡rs✳ ș❢ ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♦♥❧② ♦♥❡ r❡♠❛✐♥✐♥❣
♣r✐❝❡✱ ✇ ❡ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ t❤✐s ♣r✐❝❡ ❛s ♦✉r ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss st♦♣s✳ ș❢
✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ♦♥❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✇ ❡ ♠♦ ✈ ❡ t♦ t❤❡ ♥❡①t st❡♣✳

✺✳✸✳ ❖r❞❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✽✼
✸✳ ❙t❡♣ ✸ ❤❛s t❤❡ ❣♦❛❧ ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ t❤❛t ❛❣r❡❡s ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜✉②✴s❡❧❧
♣r❡ss✉r❡✳ ❚❤❡ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜✉② ♣r❡ss✉r❡✱ ❛t ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✱ ✐s ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡❞ ❜ ②
t❤❡ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ s✐❣♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ s✉r♣❧✉s ♦❢ ♦r❞❡rs✳ ș❢ t❤❡ ❈✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ❇✉② ◗✉❛♥ t✐t ② ✐s
❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ❈✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ❙❡❧❧ ◗✉❛♥ t✐t ② ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ s❛ ② t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡①❡rts
❜✉② ♣r❡ss✉r❡ ❛t t❤✐s ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✳ ❋ ♦r ❡✈ ❡r② r❡♠❛✐♥✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢r♦♠ ❙t❡♣ ✷ ✇ ❡
♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡✐r r❡s♣ ❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r❡ss✉r❡s✳ ș❢ ♦♥❧② ❜✉② ♣r❡ss✉r❡ ❡①✐sts✱ ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣
t❤❛t ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ s✉r♣❧✉s ❛t ❡✈ ❡r② ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✱ ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ s❡❧❡❝t t❤❡ ❤✐❣❤❡st
♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ❛s ♦✉r ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✳ ❙✐♥❝❡ ❛❧❧ t❤✐s r❡s✐❞✉❛❧ ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❢♦r ❜✉②✐♥❣
✇✐❧❧ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✱ ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ s❡❧❡❝t t❤❡ ❤✐❣❤❡st ♣r✐❝❡
❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ♠✐♥✐♠✐③❡ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ❛❢t❡r ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❆❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈ ❡❧② ✱
✐❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r❡ss✉r❡ ✐s ❢♦r s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❛t ❡✈ ❡r② ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✱ ✇ ❡ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ t❤❡ ❧♦ ✇ ❡st
♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ♠✐♥✐♠✐③❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❞r♦♣s ✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ❛❢t❡r t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♣r✐❝❡
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ș❢ ♦♥❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❝ ❤♦s❡♥✱ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r② st♦♣s ❤❡r❡✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ♦❢
t❤❡ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❜ ♦t❤ ❜✉② ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧ ♣r❡ss✉r❡✱ ♦r ✐❢ ❛❧❧ s✉r♣❧✉s ✐s ③❡r♦✱ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥♥♦t
❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ r❡♠❛✐♥✐♥❣ s✉r♣❧✉s❡s ✭✐❢ ❛♥ ②✮ ♦❢ ❜✉②✴s❡❧❧ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡
✐❞❡♥ t✐❝❛❧ ✐♥ ♠❛❣♥✐t✉❞❡ ✭t❤❡② ❛❧❧ s❛t✐s❢② ❙t❡♣ ✷✮ ❛♥❞ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ✐♥ s✐❣♥ ❛♥❞ s♦
❝❛♥ ❜✐❛s t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥ ❛♥ ② ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡ ✇ ❡ ❣♦ t♦ t❤❡ ✜♥❛❧ st❡♣✳
✹✳ ❙t❡♣ ✹ ✇✐❧❧ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡✱ ❛♠♦♥❣ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❢r♦♠ ❙t❡♣ ✸✱ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ t❤❛t ✐s ❝❧♦s❡st t♦ t❤❡
r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡ ♣r✐❝❡✳ ș♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✇❤❡r❡ ✐♥ tr❛❞❛ ② tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♦ ❝❝✉rs t❤❡ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡ ♣r✐❝❡
✐s t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❧❛st ✐♥ tr❛❞❛ ② tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥✳ ❲ ❡ ✉s❡ ❛s r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡ ♣r✐❝❡ t❤❡ ❧❛st
♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✱ ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ Pt✳ ◆❡①t✱ ✇ ❡ ♥❛rr♦ ✇
t❤❡ ❧✐st ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❥✉st ♦♥❧② t ✇ ♦ ♣r✐❝❡s✱ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡s❡ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❧❡s ✿
✶✳ ș❢ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❢r♦♠ ❙t❡♣ ✸ s❤♦ ✇ ❛ s✉r♣❧✉s ♦❢ ③❡r♦✱ ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❤♦❧❞ t❤❡ ♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠
❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❧✐st ♦❢ ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ♣r✐❝❡s✳
✷✳ ș❢ ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ❛ ♠✐① ♦❢ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈ ❡ ♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠ s✉r♣❧✉s❡s✱ ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❤♦❧❞
t❤❡ t ✇ ♦ ♣r✐❝❡s t❤❛t ♠❛r❦ t❤❡ ❝ ❤❛♥❣✐♥❣ ✐♥ s✐❣♥✳ ❆ t t❤✐s ♣ ♦✐♥ t ✐♥ ❙t❡♣ ✹ ✇ ❡ ❛r❡
❧❡❢t ✇✐t❤ ♦♥❧② t ✇ ♦ ♣r✐❝❡s P1 ❛♥❞P2 ✭✇ ❡ ❛ss✉♠❡ P1> P2 ✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡
♣r✐❝❡Pt✳ ❲ ❡ s❡❧❡❝t t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ Pt+1 ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥
Pt+1=

P1:Pt≥P1
P2:Pt≤P2
Pt:Pt∈[P1,P2]✭✺✳✺✮
❚❤✐s ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❡♥s✉r❡s t❤❡ ❜ ❡st ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r ❡✈ ❡r② ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ t ❜ ②
♠❛①✐♠✐③✐♥❣ ❡①❝ ❤❛♥❣❡❞ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ❛♥❞ ❛ ✈ ♦✐❞✐♥❣ t♦ ✐♥❝♦r♣ ♦r❛t❡ ♥❡✇ ❜✐❛s❡s ✐♥ t♦ t❤❡ ♥❡✇
♣r✐❝❡Pt+1 ✳
❆❢t❡r ❝♦♠♣✉t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✱ t❤❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r r❡s♦❧✈ ❡s ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ♦r❞❡rs ✐♥
t❤❡ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜ ♦ ♦❦ ❛t t❤✐s ♥❡✇ ♣r✐❝❡✳ ❆❢t❡r ❛❧❧ ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ r❡s♦❧✈ ❡❞
❛ ♥❡✇ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡❣✐♥✳ ❚ ♦ ❜ ❡tt❡r ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❤♦ ✇ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r❡❞ ✇ ❡
✇✐❧❧ ❣♦ t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✳ ș♥ ✺✳✷ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ s❡❡ ❛♥ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ♦❢ ❛ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r
❜ ♦ ♦❦✳

✽✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺✳ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮
❆❣❡♥t ș❉ ❉✐r❡❝t✐♦♥ ◆✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts ▼❛①✴▼✐♥ ❛♠♦✉♥t
✸ ❇✉② ✶✵ ✶✷
✹ ❇✉② ✼ ✶✶✳✺
✶ ❙❡❧❧ ✶✺ ✶✶
✷ ❙❡❧❧ ✼ ✶✸
✺ ❇✉② ✺ ✶✷✳✺
✻ ❙❡❧❧ ✶✺ ✶✶✳✼✺
✾ ❇✉② ✹ ✶✹
✶✵ ❙❡❧❧ ✹ ✶✵
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✷✿ ❊①❛♠♣❧❡ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦
❆❣❡♥ts ❤❛✈❡ s❡♥t ✽ ♦r❞❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❚❤❡ ❜❡st ❜✉②✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ✶✹✱ ❢♦r ✹
❛ss❡ts✱ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❜❡st s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ✶✵ ❛❧s♦ ❢♦r ✹ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❋ ♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✜rst st❡♣ ✐♥
t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠ ✇❡ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ ❜✉②✴s❡❧❧ q✉❛♥t✐t✐❡s ❛t ❡❛❝❤ ❞✐st✐♥❝t
♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡♥ ✇❡ ❞✐s❝♦✈❡r t❤❡ ❝✉♠✉❧❛t✐✈❡ ❜✉② ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧ q✉❛♥t✐t✐❡s✳
❇❯❨ ❙❊▲▲
❈✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡
❇✉②
◗✉❛♥✲
t✐t ②❇✉② q✉❛♥✲
t✐t② ❛t ♣r✐❝❡✜r✐❝❡ ❙❡❧❧ q✉❛♥✲
t✐t② ❛t
♣r✐❝❡❈✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡
❙❡❧❧ ◗✉❛♥✲
t✐t ②
✺ ✺ ✶✷✳✺ ✵ ✹✶
✶✷ ✼ ✶✶✳✺ ✵ ✹✶
✶✷ ✵ ✶✺ ✵ ✹✶
✶✻ ✹ ✶✹ ✵ ✹✶
✶✻ ✵ ✶✸ ✼ ✹✶
✷✻ ✶✵ ✶✷ ✵ ✸✹
✷✻ ✵ ✶✶✱✼✺ ✶✺ ✸✹
✷✻ ✵ ✶✶ ✶✺ ✶✾
✷✻ ✵ ✶✵ ✹ ✹
✷✻ ✵ ✼ ✵ ✵
✷✻ ✵ ✺ ✵ ✵
✷✻ ✵ ✹ ✵ ✵
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✸✿ ▼❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ✲ ❝♦♠♣✉t✐♥❣ ❝✉♠✉❧❛t✐✈❡ q✉❛♥t✐t✐❡s ❛t ❛❧❧ ♣r✐❝❡
❧❡✈❡❧s
❆s ✇❡ ❝❛♥ s❡❡ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✸ ✱ ♠♦st ❛ss❡ts ❝❛♥ ❜❡ s♦❧❞ ❛t ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❛t ❧❡❛st ✶✸
❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠♦st ❛ss❡ts ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❜♦✉❣❤t ❢♦r ❛ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ ✶✷✳ ❲ ❡ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡
♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❡①❡❝✉t❛❜❧❡ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈❡❧✱ ❛s ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡❞ ✐♥ ❙t❡♣ ✶ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❝❡❞✉r❡✳ ❚❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❡①❡❝✉t❛❜❧❡ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡s t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢
❛ss❡ts t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡❞ ❛❢t❡r ❞✐s❝♦✈❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝❡✳

✺✳✸✳ ❖r❞❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✽✾
❇❯❨ ❙❊▲▲
❈✉♠✉❧❛t✐✈❡
❇✉② ◗✉❛♥✲
t✐t②Pr✐❝❡ ❈✉♠✉❧❛t✐✈❡
❙❡❧❧
◗✉❛♥✲
t✐t②▼❛①✲
✐♠ ✉♠
❱ ♦❧✉♠❡
✺ ✶✷✳✺ ✹✶ ✺
✶✷ ✶✶✳✺ ✹✶ ✶✷
✶✷ ✶✺ ✹✶ ✶✷
✶✻ ✶✹ ✹✶ ✶✻
✶✻ ✶✸ ✹✶ ✶✻
✷✻ ✶✷ ✸✹ ✷✻
✷✻ ✶✶✱✼✺ ✸✹ ✷✻
✷✻ ✶✶ ✶✾ ✶✾
✷✻ ✶✵ ✹ ✹
✷✻ ✼ ✵ ✵
✷✻ ✺ ✵ ✵
✷✻ ✹ ✵ ✵
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✹✿ ❙t❡♣ ♦♥❡ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ✲ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ❝r✐t❡r✐❛
❚❤❡ r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡s✱ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✹ ✱ ❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ❝r✐t❡r✐❛
❛r❡ ✶✶✳✼✺ ❛♥❞ ✶✷✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ✇❡ ❝❛♥♥♦t ♠❛❦❡ ❛♥ ✉♥❜✐❛s❡❞ ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡s❡ t✇♦
♣r✐❝❡s ✇❡ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❡ ✇✐t❤ ❙t❡♣ ✷✳ ș♥ t❤✐s st❡♣ ✇❡ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ ♠✐♥✐♠✉♠ s✉r♣❧✉s✱
♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts t❤❛t ✇✐❧❧ ♥♦t ❜❡ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡❞✱ ❛t ❡✈❡r② ❞✐st✐♥❝t ♣r✐❝❡
❧❡✈❡❧✳

✾✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺✳ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮
❇❯❨ ❙❊▲▲
❈✉♠✉❧❛t✐✈❡
❇✉② ◗✉❛♥✲
t✐t②❣r✐❝❡ ❈✉♠✉❧❛t✐✈❡
❙❡❧❧ ◗✉❛♥✲
t✐t②▼❛①✐♠✉♠
❱ ♦❧✉♠❡▼✐♥✐♠ ✉♠
s✉r♣❧✉s
✺ ✶✷✳✺ ✹✶ ✺ ✲✸✻
✶✷ ✶✶✳✺ ✹✶ ✶✷ ✲✷✾
✶✷ ✶✺ ✹✶ ✶✷ ✲✷✾
✶✻ ✶✹ ✹✶ ✶✻ ✲✷✺
✶✻ ✶✸ ✹✶ ✶✻ ✲✷✺
✷✻ ✶✷ ✸✹ ✷✻ ✲✽
✷✻ ✶✶✱✼✺ ✸✹ ✷✻ ✲✽
✷✻ ✶✶ ✶✾ ✶✾ ✼
✷✻ ✶✵ ✹ ✹ ✷✷
✷✻ ✼ ✵ ✵ ✷✻
✷✻ ✺ ✵ ✵ ✷✻
✷✻ ✹ ✵ ✵ ✷✻
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✺✿ ❙t❡♣ t✇♦ ❛♥❞ t❤r❡❡ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ✲ ♠✐♥✐♠✉♠ s✉r♣❧✉s ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡t
♣r❡ss✉r❡
❆❢t❡r ❝♦♠♣✉t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ s✉r♣❧✉s✱ ❛s ❝❛♥ ❜❡ s❡❡♥ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✺ ✱ ✇❡ st✐❧❧
❝❛♥♥♦t ❞✐s❝r✐♠✐♥❛t❡ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ t✇♦ r❡♠❛✐♥✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡ ❝❤♦✐❝❡s ✭✶✶✳✼✺ ❛♥❞ ✶✷✮ ❜❡❝❛✉s❡
t❤❡s❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❤❛✈❡ ❜♦t❤ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♠✐♥✐♠✉♠ s✉r♣❧✉s ❧❡✈❡❧ ✭✽ ❛ss❡ts r❡♠❛✐♥ ✉♥tr❛❞❡❞✮✳
❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✇❡ ♠♦✈❡ ♦♥ t♦ ❙t❡♣ ✸ ✇❤❡r❡ ✇❡ ❧♦♦❦ ❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r❡ss✉r❡✳ ❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡
t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r❡ss✉r❡ ❢♦r ❜♦t❤ ♣r✐❝❡ ❝❤♦✐❝❡s ✐s ❢♦r s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ✭❛t t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈❡❧s
✶✶✳✼✺ ❛♥❞ ✶✷ ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ ✽ ♠♦r❡ ❛ss❡ts t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❛✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❢♦r s❡❧❧✐♥❣ t❤❛♥ ❢♦r ❜✉②✐♥❣✮✳
❆❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠ ✇❡ ❝❤♦♦s❡ t❤❡ ❧♦✇❡st ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡
♣r✐❝❡s ✭✶✶✳✼✺✮ t❤✉s ❡♥s✉r✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❜❡st ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❧❡❛st ❜✐❛s ❢♦r t❤❡ ♥❡①t tr❛❞✐♥❣
♣❡r✐♦❞✳ ❚❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♣r✐❝❡✱ ✶✶✳✼✺✱ ♥♦✇ s❡r✈❡s ❛s ❛ ❜❛s✐s ❢♦r t❤❡ ❡①❡❝✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❧❧ ❝♦♠♣❛t✐❜❧❡
♦r❞❡rs✳ ❚❤❡ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡ ✜❧❧❡❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡s ❛r❡ ❧✐st❡❞ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✻ ✳

✺✳✹✳ ❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts✱ t❤❡✐r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ✾✶
❆❣❡♥ t
ș❉❖♣ ❡r❛t✐♦♥ ◗✉❛♥ t✐t ②
❡①❝ ❤❛♥❣❡❞❈❛s❤
r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡❞❈♦✉♥ t❡r♣❛rt✐❡s
❆❣❡♥ t ș❉s
✸ ❇✉② ✶✵ ✲✶✶✼✱✺ ✶
✹ ❇✉② ✼ ✲✽✵✱✺ ✶✱✻
✶ ❙❡❧❧ ✶✺ ✶✼✻✱✷✺ ✸✱✹
✷ ❙❡❧❧ ✵ ✵ ♥♦t ✜❧❧❡❞
✺ ❇✉② ✺ ✲✺✼✱✺ ✻
✾ ❇✉② ✹ ✲✹✼ ✻
✻ ❙❡❧❧ ✶✶ ✽✷✺ ✺✱✾ ✭♣❛rt❧② ✜❧❧❡❞✮
✶✵ ❙❡❧❧ ✵ ✵ ♥♦t ✜❧❧❡❞
❆ss❡ts ❊①✲
❝ ❤❛♥❣❡❞✷✻ ❆ss❡ts ♥♦t
❡①❝ ❤❛♥❣❡❞✽
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✻✿ ❚ r❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥ r❡s♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ❛❢t❡r ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r②
❲ ❡ s❡❡ t❤❛t ♠♦st ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡✐r ♦r❞❡rs r❡s♦❧✈ ❡❞✳ ❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ❛❣❡♥ t ✸
❤❛❞ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧❧② ❛♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ❜✉② ✶✵ ❛ss❡ts ❛t ❛ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ ✶✷ ✭s❡❡ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✻ ✮✳❚❤❡
❛❣❡♥ t ❤❛s ❤✐s ♦r❞❡r ❢✉❧✜❧❧❡❞ ❛t ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ ✶✶✳✼✺ ❛♥❞ ❤❡ ♦❜t❛✐♥s ✶✵ ❛ss❡ts ❢♦r ❛ t♦t❛❧
s✉♠ ♦❢ ✶✶✼✱✺✳ ❍✐s ❝♦✉♥ t❡r♣❛rt ② ✱ ❛❣❡♥ t ✶✱ ❛❧s♦ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ✜❧❧s ❤✐s ♦r❞❡r✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ✶ s❡❧❧s
✶✵ ❛ss❡ts t♦ ❛❣❡♥ t ✸ ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s ✺ ❛ss❡ts t♦ ❛❣❡♥ t ✹ t❤ ✉s r❡❝❡✐✈✐♥❣ ✶✼✻✳✷✺ ✐♥ ❝❛s❤✳
❲ ❡ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦✉t t❤❛t ✇✐t❤ t❤✐s ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠✱ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦r❞❡rs ❞♦ ♥♦t
❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛♥ ② ❡✛❡❝t ♦♥ t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r✐❝❡✳ ❋ r♦♠ ♦♥ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇ t❤✐s ✐s ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡
♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦r❞❡rs ❞♦♥✬t ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ ❛♥ ② ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r s❡tt✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ♣r✐❝❡✳
❋ r♦♠ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r❡ss✉r❡ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇ ✐t ✐s ❛r❣✉❛❜❧❡ t❤❛t ❧❛r❣❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦r❞❡rs ❝❛♥
✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❜ ② r❛♣✐❞❧② ❣♦✐♥❣ t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡rs ✐♥ ♦♥❡ ♦r ❛♥♦t❤❡r ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥✳
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♥❛t✉r❡ ♦❢ ♦✉r ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❡♥ ✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥ t✱ t❤✐s ❡✛❡❝t ✐s
✐❣♥♦r❛❜❧❡✳ ș♥ ♦✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r✱ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦r❞❡rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ♣✉r♣ ♦s❡ ♦❢ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞✐♥❣ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ②
t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❤❛ ✈✐♥❣ ❛♥ ② ❞✐r❡❝t ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦♥ ♣r✐❝❡s✳
✺✳✹ ❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ts✱ t❤❡✐r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s
✺✳✹✳✶ ❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ t
❚❤❡r❡ ✐s ♥♦ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❜✉② ❡rs ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧❡rs✳ ❊✈ ❡♥ ✇❤❡♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ♠✐ss✐♥❣
♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❝❛♥ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ t❤❛t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ ❜✉② ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧✳ ❙♦✱ ✇ ❡
❛ss❡rt t❤❛t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ t❤❡ ❜❛s✐❝ ❛♥❞ ♠♦st ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ ❜❧♦ ❝ ❦s ♦❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❈♦♥s❡q✉❡♥ t❧② ✱ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✬s r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥s✐❞❡ ❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉✲
❧❛t✐♦♥✱ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✱ ✐s ♠❛ ②❜ ❡ t❤❡ ♠♦st ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝ ♦❢ ♣❛rt
♦❢ ♦✉r ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳
❆♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ✐s ❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ❛ r❡❛❧ ❧✐❢❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✳ ▲✐❦ ❡ ❛♥ ② ♠♦ ❞❡❧✱ ♦✉r ❛❣❡♥ t

✾✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺✳ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮
✐s ❛ s✐♠♣❧✐✜❡❞ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✳ ❆♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ✐s ❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♣r♦❣r❛♠ t❤❛t r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡s
❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡ts ❛ str❡❛♠ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❯s✐♥❣ t❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ❛♥❞ ❤✐s ♣ ❡rs♦♥❛❧
❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s✱ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ t ♠❛❦ ❡s ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ s❡♥❞s ❛♥ ♦r❞❡r✳ ș♥ ♦✉r
♠♦ ❞❡❧✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡s✱ ❛t t❤❡ st❛rt ♦❢ ❡❛❝ ❤ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✱ t ✇ ♦ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧
str❡❛♠s ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣♠❡♥ ts ✭ It ✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❧❛st ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✭ Pt ✮✳
ș♥ ❛❝❝♦r❞❛♥❝❡ t♦ t❤❡ t❤❡♦r② ❜ ❡❤✐♥❞ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦✉r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✱ ✭ ❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥ ✱ ✶✾✼✸ ✮ ❛♥❞
✭ ❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✶✾✽✶ ✮✱ ♦✉r ❛❣❡♥ ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈ ❡ ❜✐❛s❡s ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❞✐st♦rt t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡② r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡✳ ❚❤ ✉s✱ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✇✐❧❧ ♥♦t ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
str❡❛♠It ✭s❡❡ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ✺✳✷ ✮ ❜✉t ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ str❡❛♠✱
Biasx(It) ✳ ❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ✧♦♣t✐♠✐st✧ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✇✐❧❧ ♦ ✈ ❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✬s ❣r♦ ✇t❤✳
❋ ♦r ❛♥ ❡①tr❛ t ✇✐st ♦❢ r❡❛❧✐t ② ✱ ✇ ❡ ❝r❡❛t❡❞ ❛ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ t❤r♦✉❣❤ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❛❣❡♥ ts ❝❛♥
r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡ ❞❡❧❛ ② ❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ș♥st❡❛❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❧❛t❡st ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ It ✱ s♦♠❡
❛❣❡♥ ts ❝❛♥ r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡ ♦✉t✲❞❛t❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ It−k ✳ ❚❤✐s ❢❡❛t✉r❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s t❤❡ ❢❛❝t t❤❛t
♥♦t ❛❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛❝❝❡ss t♦ t❤❡ ♠♦st ✉♣✲t♦✲❞❛t❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜ ♦✉t
❛♥ ❛ss❡t✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ❝❛♥ r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❧❛t❡st ♥❡✇s ✭ k= 0 ✮✱ ❛ ❞❛ ② ♦❧❞ ♥❡✇s
✭k= 1 ✮ ♦r ❡✈ ❡♥ ♦❧❞❡r ✭ k >1 ✮✳
Investment method
Biased informationt
PortfoliotDecision
Orders
Orders are executed New Portfoliot+1Market order book
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✺✳✹✿ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ♠❛❦✐♥❣
❆❢t❡r ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t✐♥❣ ✭❜✐❛s✐♥❣✮ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠s✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ✇✐❧❧ ✉s❡ ❤✐s ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t str❛t❡❣② t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥✳ ❯s✐♥❣ t❤✐s ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ t
✇✐❧❧ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❛❝t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❜✉②✐♥❣✱ s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ♦r ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣ ❤✐s
❛ss❡ts✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ❝❛s❤ ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ ❛ r❡t✉r♥✱ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ t ✐s ♥♦t ✇ ♦rr✐❡❞ ❛❜ ♦✉t ❛♥
♦♣t✐♠❛❧ r❡♣❛rt✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❤✐s ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❛ r✐s❦② ❛♥❞ ❛ ♥♦♥✲r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t✳ ❆ ❜✉② ♦r

✺✳✹✳ ❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts✱ t❤❡✐r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ✾✸
s❡❧❧ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ✇✐❧❧ ♣r♦♠♣t t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ t t♦ s❡♥❞ ❛♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ❜✉② st♦ ❝ ❦s t♦ t❤❡ ❡①t❡♥ t ♦❢
❤✐s ❝❛s❤ ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣s ♦r t♦ s❡❧❧ ❤✐s ❡♥ t✐r❡ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦✳
❆ t t❤❡ ❜ ❡❣✐♥♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❛ t❡st✱ t❤❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✇✐❧❧ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛ ♠✐① ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ ts t❤❛t ❛r❡
❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❡❞ ❜ ② ❛ s❡t ♦❢ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✳ ❆❣❡♥ ts st❛rt tr❛❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✳ ❆❣❡♥ ts ✇❤✐❝ ❤
✉s❡ ❛❧❧ t❤❡✐r ❝❛s❤ ♦r s❡❧❧ ❛❧❧ t❤❡✐r st♦ ❝ ❦s ❝❛♥♥♦t s❡♥❞ ❛♥ ② ♠♦r❡ ♦r❞❡rs t♦ ❜✉② r❡s♣ ❡❝✲
t✐✈ ❡❧② s❡❧❧ st♦ ❝ ❦s✳ ❈♦♥s❡q✉❡♥ t❧② ✱ ❛❣❡♥ ts t❤❛t ❡①❤❛✉st ❜ ♦t❤ t❤❡✐r ❝❛s❤ ❛♥❞ ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦
♦❢ st♦ ❝ ❦s ✇✐❧❧ ♥♦ ❧♦♥❣❡r ❜ ❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ s❡♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❲ ❡ ❞♦ ♥♦t ❛❧❧♦ ✇ ❢♦r
s❤♦rt✲s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ♦r ❜ ♦rr♦ ✇✐♥❣ s✐♥❝❡ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦❢ ❛❝t✐♦♥s s✉♣♣ ♦rt❡❞ ❜ ② s✉❝ ❤ ❝❛s❤
s♦✉r❝❡s ✇✐❧❧ ❝❛♥❝❡❧ ❡❛❝ ❤ ♦t❤❡r ♦✉t✳
✺✳✹✳✷ ❚❤❡ ❜✐❛s
❚❤❡ ♣ ❡rs♦♥❛❧ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ♦❢ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❜✐❛s❡s✱ ❛r❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ✐♥ ♦✉r ❡♥ ✈✐✲
r♦♥♠❡♥ t ✉s✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❛✣♥❡ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤ ✉s✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t
❂ ✱ ✇✐t❤ ♣ ❡rs♦♥❛❧ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s aP ❛♥❞bP ✇✐❧❧ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
It ❛s
Biasp(It) =aP∗It+bP ✭✺✳✻✮
❉✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❝♦♠ ❜✐♥❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✬s ❜✐❛s ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t ✇ ❡❧❧ ❦♥♦ ✇♥ ❜ ❡✲
❤❛ ✈✐♦✉r❛❧ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭❛s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ s❡❡♥ ✐♥ ✐♥ ✺✳✼ ✳
◆r ❆ ❇ ❈❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝
✶ ✶ > ✵ ❂✉r❡ ♦♣t✐♠✐st✐❝ ✭❞❡❝r❡❛s❡s ❜❛❞ ♥❡✇s
❛♥❞ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡s ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♥❡✇s✮
✷ ✶ < ✵ ❂✉r❡ ♣ ❡ss✐♠✐st✐❝ ✭✐♥❝r❡❛s❡s ❜❛❞ ♥❡✇s
❛♥❞ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡s ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♥❡✇s✮
✸ ❆❂✶ ✵ ✴ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ș♥❢♦r♠❡❞✱ ♥♦t ❜✐❛s❡❞
✹ ❆> ✶ ✯ ❖♣t✐♠✐st✐❝ ✇✐t❤ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♥❡✇s ❛♥❞ ♣ ❡s✲
s✐♠✐st✐❝ ❛❜ ♦✉t ❜❛❞ ♥❡✇s
✺ ✶> ❆> ✵ ✯ ▼♦ ❞❡r❛t❡❞✱ > ❯♥❞❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡s ❣♦ ♦ ❞
❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s ❜❛❞ ♥❡✇s
✻ ✲✶< ❆< ✵ ✯ ❈♦♥ tr❛r✐❛♥✱ ▼♦ ❞❡r❛t❡❞
✼ ❆❂✲✶ ✵ ❈♦♥ tr❛r✐❛♥✱ ✴ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ș♥❢♦r♠❡❞
✽ ❆< ✲✶ ✯ ❖♣t✐♠✐st✐❝ ✇✐t❤ ❜❛❞ ♥❡✇s ❛♥❞ ♣ ❡s✲
s✐♠✐st✐❝ ❛❜ ♦✉t ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♥❡✇s
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✼✿ ❇✐❛s ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛♥❞ ❛ss♦ ❝✐❛t❡❞ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r tr❛✐t
❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ t ✇ ♦ ❜✐❛s ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ♦❢ ❡❛❝ ❤ ❛❣❡♥ t✱ ❆ ❛♥❞ ❇✱ ♣❧❛ ② ❞✐✛❡r✲
❡♥ t r♦❧❡s ✐♥ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐③✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ t✬s ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦✉r❛❧ tr❛✐ts✳ ✴ ❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❆ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ ts
❛ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝ ♦❢ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥✴❞❡✢❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❆♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ✇✐t❤ A >1 ✭♦r
◆r✳ ✹ ✐♥ t❤❡ t❛❜❧❡ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡✮ ✇✐❧❧ ♦ ✈ ❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ r❡❣❛r❞❧❡ss ♦❢ ✐ts s✐❣♥✳

✾✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺✳ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮
ș♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡❞ ❜ ② t❤✐s t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ t✱ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✢✉❝t✉❛t❡ ❛r♦✉♥❞ ❢✉♥✲
❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✇✐❧❧ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❡①❛❣❣❡r❛t❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t✐♦♥s✱ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥
t❤❡✐r ♦ ✈ ❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤ ✉s ✇ ❡ s❛ ② t❤❛t✱ ❛♣r✐♦r✐✱ t❤❡ ✬❆✬ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❤❛s
❛♥ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ✱ ♦r ♠♦r❡ ♣r❡❝✐s❡❧② ♦♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ❡①❝❡ss ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ✳
❚❤❡ s❡❝♦♥❞ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❇✱ t❤❛t ♠♦ ❞❡❧s t❤❡ ✇ ❛ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱
✐♠♣❧✐❡s ❛ ✈ ❡rt✐❝❛❧ s❤✐❢t ✐♥ t❤❡ ❆✯ș t ❧✐♥❡✳ ❋ ♦r ❛ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ ❇ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ s❡❡ ✺✳✼ ✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t
✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ♦♣t✐♠✐st✐❝ ❛❜ ♦✉t ❛❧❧ ♥❡✇s✱ ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ t❤❛t ✐t ✇✐❧❧ ❡♥❤❛♥❝❡ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
✇✐t❤ ❛ ❇ ❛♠♦✉♥ t ❛♥❞ ✐t ✇✐❧❧ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈ ❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❛♠♦✉♥ t✳
ș♥ ✈ ❡rs❡❧② ✱ ❛ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈ ❡ ❇ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ♦❢ ❞❡❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❛♥❞ ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ❜❛❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤ ✉s r❡♥❞❡r✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t t♦ ❜ ❡ ✬♣ ❡ss✐♠✐st✐❝✬✳
❆♥ ✐♥ t❡r❡st✐♥❣ q✉❡st✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❛r✐s❡s ✐s ✐❢ t❤❡s❡ ❜✐❛s❡s ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ✐♥ t✐♠❡✳ ❆♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r
❝❛♥ r❡❛❧✐s❡ t❤❛t ❤✐s ✇ ❛ ② ♦❢ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t✐♥❣ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ✬❜✐❛s❡❞✬ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ tr② t♦ ✧✉♥ ❜✐❛s✧
❤✐♠s❡❧❢✳ ❲ ❡ ❝❛♥ ❞❡✈✐s❡ ❛♥ ❡①t❡♥s✐♦♥ t♦ ♦✉r ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✇❤❡r❡ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ❝❛♥ tr② t♦ ✬✉♥ ❜✐❛s✬
✐ts❡❧❢✳ ❇② tr❛♥s❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ✺✳✻ ✐♥ t♦ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠ ✉❧❛ ❜ ❡❧♦ ✇✱
Bias(It) = (aP∗It+bP−cp)/dp ✭✺✳✼✮
❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t tr✐❡s ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t s❡ts ♦❢ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ❢♦r t❤❡ cp ✱dp ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ❛rr✐✈ ❡ ❛t
t❤❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠✳ ș♥ ♦✉r r❡s✉❧ts ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✇ ❡ ❛r❣✉❡ t❤❛t ❞♦✐♥❣ t❤✐s ❛❝✲
t✐✈ ❡ ✬✉♥ ❜✐❛s✐♥❣✬ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ ✐s ❡q✉✐✈ ❛❧❡♥ t t♦ ❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ✇❤❡r❡ ✉♥❞❡r♣ ❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣
✭✬❜✐❛s❡❞✬✮ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✇✐❧❧ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧❧② ❡①❤❛✉st t❤❡✐r ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ❛♥❞ st♦♣ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✭t❤ ✉s ❞✐s✲
❛♣♣ ❡❛r✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✮✳ ❚❤✐s s❡❧❢✲❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐❧❧ ❧❡❛ ✈ ❡ ♦♥❧② ♣ ❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ✭ ♥♦t
❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✮ ❛❣❡♥ ts t♦ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣✳ ❉✉r✐♥❣ ♦✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✇ ❡ s❡❡ ❡①❛❝t❧② ✇❤✐❝ ❤
❛❣❡♥ ts s✉r✈✐✈ ❡ s✐♥❝❡ ♥♦t ❤❛ ✈✐♥❣ ❛ ❜✐❛s ✐s ♥♦t ♥❡❝❡ss❛r✐❧② ❛ ❣✉❛r❛♥ t❡❡ ❢♦r s✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ✐♥
❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳
✺✳✹✳✸ ❚❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥
❆❢t❡r r❡❝❡✐✈✐♥❣ ♥❡✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ❡①❡❝✉t❡s ❤✐s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣② ❛♥❞ ❣❡♥✲
❡r❛t❡s ♥❡✇ ♦r❞❡rs✳ ❉❡♣ ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ t✬s ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t✐♦♥ ✭❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ② ✱ ♣r♦✜t✱ ❡t❝✳✮ ❛♥❞
♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❝r❡❛t❡❞ ❛ t ②♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✭s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✺✳✻ ✮✳