Economia neobservata in Romania [609173]

Economia neobservata in Romania
– cauze si consecinte
Ionut Dumitru
Presedinte Consiliul Fiscal, Economist -sef Raiffeisen Bank, Profesor ASE
Bucuresti (FABBV)*

Octombrie 2018

*Opiniile exprimate sunt opinii personale ale autorului si nu implica institutiile cu care este asociat .

• Economia neobservata , economie subterana , ascuns a,
neagra , invizibil a, neoficial a, paralel a, informal a, ilegal a,
gri, din umbr a, etc.

•Activitatea economic a desfasurata în afara legi i sau care nu
este inregistrata in conturil e naționale . Economia neobservata

Ce contine economia neobservata
Conform manualului OECD (editia 2002) privind
masurarea economiei neobservate :
•productia subterana: activitati productive si legale dar
care sunt ascunse deliberat autoritatilor pentru a evita
plata taxelor sau respectarea reglementarilor
•productia ilegala (interzisa prin lege)
•productia sectorului informal – activitati in cadrul
sectorului gospodariilor sau in alte unitati care sunt
neinregistrate
•productia gospodariilor pentru consum final propriu.

Ponderea economiei neobservate in Romania vs
media UE (% in PIB)
Sursa : INS, Medina and Schneider (2018)
611162126313641
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017Romania
Medie UE
Economia neobservata (Institutul
National de Statistica)

Ponderea economiei neobservate in tarile ECE (% in PIB)
Sursa : Medina and Schneider, 2018
10152025303540
Medie UE
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
Romania

Ponderea economiei neobservate in tarile UE (% in PIB,
2015)
Sursa : Medina and Schneider, 2018
32.2
29.4
26.5
23.0 23.0 22.9 22.0 20.8 20.5 20.2
18.7 18.5 17.8 17.8 16.9 16.7 16.6
14.7
13.3
11.7 11.7 11.2 10.5 10.4 9.6 9.0 8.3 7.8 7.8
05101520253035
Cyprus
Malta
Greece
Italy
Croatia
Romania
Spain
Bulgaria
Hungary
Slovenia
Lithuania
Estonia
Portugal
Belgium
Medie UE
Poland
Latvia
Denmark
Finland
Sweden
France
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Luxembourg
Ireland
Austria
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Germany

Cauze ale economiei neobservate
1. Povara taxelor si impozitelor
•Povara fiscala in general si povara fiscala pe
munca in particular (in special cea a contributiilor
la asigurarile sociale ) – factor determinant pentru
marimea economiei ascunse .

Povara fiscala pentru un salariat cu venituri mici (50% din
salariul mediu ), fara copii , 2016
•Povara fiscala (tax wedge) este diferenta dintre costurile totale ale angajatorului si
salariul net al angajatului
31.2 32.5 36.7
9.014.019.024.029.034.039.044.049.0
Ireland
Malta
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Luxembourg
France
Portugal
Spain
EA-19
Denmark
EU-28
Greece
Slovakia
Estonia
Croatia
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Finland
Poland
Belgium
Italy
Lithuania
Romania
Czech Republic
Austria
Sweden
Latvia
Germany
Hungary
Sursa : Comisia Europeana

Costul total al
angajatorului
pentru a plati un
salariu net de 1
euro
Source: The Tax Burden of Typical
Workers in the EU 28—2018 Institut
Économique Molinari, Paris‐ Bruxelles

Cota maxima de impozit pe venit , 2018
57.1 55.8 55.0 53.2 53.0 52.0 51.5 51.1 50.0 50.0 48.0 47.5 47.2 45.8 45.0 43.5 42.6 42.5
39.0
35.0 35.0
32.0 31.4
25.0
20.0
15.0 15.0 15.0
10.0 10.0
8.018.028.038.048.058.068.0
Sweden
Denmark
Greece
Belgium
Portugal
Netherlands
France
Finland
Austria
Slovenia
Ireland
Germany
Italy
Luxembourg
United Kingdom
Spain
EA-19
Croatia
EU-28
Cyprus
Malta
Poland
Latvia
Slovakia
Estonia
Czech Republic
Lithuania
Hungary
Bulgaria
Romania
Sursa : Comisia Europeana

35.0 34.4
31.5
30.2 29.6 29.0
27.8
26.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 24.1
22.0 22.0 21.9 21.6 21.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 18.0
16.0 15.0
12.5 12.5
10.8 10.0
8.013.018.023.028.033.038.0
Malta
France
Portugal
Germany
Belgium
Greece
Italy
Luxembourg
Spain
Netherlands
Austria
EA-19
Denmark
Sweden
EU-28
EU-27
Slovakia
Estonia
Latvia
Finland
Czech Republic
Poland
Slovenia
United Kingdom
Croatia
Romania
Lithuania
Ireland
Cyprus
Hungary
BulgariaSursa : Comisia Europeana Cota maxima de impozit pe profit, 2018

27
25 25 25
24 24
23 23 23
22 22
21.5 21 21 21 21 21 21 20.8
20 20 20.0 20 20 20
19 19 19
18
17
16182022242628
Hungary
Denmark
Croatia
Sweden
Greece
Finland
Ireland
Poland
Portugal
Italy
Slovenia
EU-28
Belgium
Czech Republic
Spain
Latvia
Lithuania
Netherlands
EA-19
Bulgaria
Estonia
France
Austria
Slovakia
United Kingdom
Germany
Cyprus
Romania
Malta
LuxembourgSursa : Comisia Europeana Cota standard de TVA, 2018

Cotele totale de contributii de asigurari sociale , 2018
22.1 22.9 32.8 32.9 36.3 37.3 44.7
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.0
Ireland
United States
Cyprus
United Kingdom
South America average
Asia average
Global average
Luxembourg
Finland
Bulgaria
OECD average
Europe average
Poland
Portugal
Latvia
Spain
EU average
Croatia
Romania
Estonia
Slovenia
Sweden
Hungary
Austria
Germany
Lithuania
Belgium
Greece
Romania comparabil
Czech Republic
Netherlands
Slovakia
France
Sursa : KPMG, Calculele autorului pentru Romania comparabil (mutarea contributiilor sociale de la angajator la angajat incepand cu 2018
a determinat o inflatare artificiala a salariului brut cu circa 20% pentru a mentine salariul net al angajatului in conditiile pastrarii costului
total al angajatorului ).

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91
Belgium
Hungary
Slovenia
Greece
Austria
Netherlands
France
Finland
Sweden
Bulgaria
Spain
Luxembourg
Portugal
Poland
Estonia
Latvia
Czech Republic
Slovakia
CroatiaIn Romania cota de CAS (pensii ) pentru PFA este de 25%, aplicată asupra unui venit ales
de către contribuabil, dar cel puțin egal cu salariul minim pe economie ; cota de CASS
(sanatate ) este de 10% aplicata la salariul minim pe economie (!!!). Cotele totale de CAS
pentru salariati sunt de 37.25% (44.7% in termeni comparabili cu anii anteriori ). Raportul dintre cotele totale de contributii de asigurari
sociale la alte forme de venit (PFA) vs salariati , 2018
Sursa : OECD, KPMG, Comisia Europeana

Cauze ale economiei neobservate
2. Calitatea institutiilor
Control of CorruptionControl of Corruption captures perceptions of the extent to which public power is exercised for private gain, including
both petty and grand forms of corruption, as well as "capture" of the state by elites and private interests. Estimate gives
the country's score on the aggregate indicator, in units of a standard normal distribution, i.e. ranging from
approximately -2.5 to 2.5.
Government
EffectivenessGovernment Effectiveness captures perceptions of the quality of public services, the quality of the civil service and the
degree of its independence from political pressures, the quality of policy formulation and implementation, and the
credibility of the government's commitment to such policies. Estimate gives the country's score on the aggregate
indicator, in units of a standard normal distribution, i.e. ranging from approximately -2.5 to 2.5.
Rule of LawRule of Law captures perceptions of the extent to which agents have confidence in and abide by the rules of society, and
in particular the quality of contract enforcement, property rights, the police, and the courts, as well as the likelihood of
crime and violence. Estimate gives the country's score on the aggregate indicator, in units of a standard normal
distribution, i.e. ranging from approximately -2.5 to 2.5.
Regulatory QualityRegulatory Quality captures perceptions of the ability of the government to formulate and implement sound policies
and regulations that permit and promote private sector development. Estimate gives the country's score on the
aggregate indicator, in units of a standard normal distribution, i.e. ranging from approximately -2.5 to 2.5.
Sursa : World Bank, The Worldwide Governance Indicators

01020304050607080
-2 -1 0 1 2 3
control_of_corruptioneconomia_neobservata
01020304050607080
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
rule_of_laweconomia_neobservata
01020304050607080
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
regulatory_qualityeconomia_neobservata
01020304050607080
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
government_effectivenesseconomia_neobservataSursa : prelucrari ale autorului pe baza datelor de la Banca Mondiala si din Medina and Schneider (2018), perioada 1991 -2016

-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.30.50.70.9
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016Regulatory quality Control of corruption Rule of law Government effectiveness
2016Regulatory
qualityControl of
corruptionRule of
lawGovernment
effectiveness
Bulgaria 0.659 -0.161 -0.038 0.290
Cehia 0.986 0.506 1.093 1.058
Ungaria 0.603 0.081 0.511 0.453
Polonia 0.952 0.746 0.680 0.691
Romania 0.587 -0.001 0.302 -0.171Sursa : World Bank, The Worldwide Governance Indicators Evolutia indicatorilor de guvernanta in Romania

Cauze ale economiei neobservate
3. Reglementarea
•Reglementarile din piata muncii reprezinta un
factor esential pentru dimensiunea economiei
ascunse .
Raportul salariul minim/salariu mediu, 2016, business economy
Sursa: Eurostat , Business economy : industrie , constructii si servicii (fara agricultura , silvicultura si pescuit si sector public).

30354045505560
Czech Republic
Slovakia
Spain
Estonia
Germany
Croatia
Latvia
Netherlands 2016
United Kingdom
Hungary
Malta
Ireland
France 2015
Romania 2008
Romania 2012
Romania 2015
Romania 2017
Portugal
Poland
Bulgaria
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Slovenia
Greece 2011

Cauze ale economiei neobservate
4. Nivelul si calitatea serviciilor publice

SE FI EE LV LT PL
DK
UK IE NL DE BE FR
AT CZ SK HU RO BG
HR
IT
ES PT GR
CY
MT SI
2030405060708090100
2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5
Indicele calitatii drumurilor Numar de morti in accidente rutiere la 1 mil locuitori Corelatia calitatea drumurilor – nr morti in accidente rutiere , 2017
Sursa : CARE, World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report

Cauze ale economiei neobservate
5. Contractul social/ psihologic in plata taxelor
•Conformarea voluntara la plata taxelor este determinata de
un contract psihologic /social cu drepturi si obligatii intre
cetatean /platitor de taxe si impozite si stat/ autoritate fiscala .
•Conformarea este mai mare daca calitatea serviciilor primite
de cetateni este mai buna si tratamentul primit din partea
administratiei fiscale este unul corect , de parteneriat si nu
unul de subordonare .

Cauze ale economiei neobservate
6. Nivelul de dezvoltare al economiei oficiale
•Nivelul de dezvoltare al economiei oficiale
este un factor cheie al economiei ascunse : cu
cat cresterea economica este mai mica, cu atat
tentatia economiei ascunse este mai mare.

Cauze ale economiei neobservate
7. Self-employment (% din numar salariati , 2017)
Cu cat ponderea muncii pe cont propriu este mai mare, cu atat economia ascunsa este mai
mare.
18% 34%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%
Sweden
Denmark
Hungary
Estonia
Germany
France
Luxembourg
Finland
Malta
Lithuania
Cyprus
Austria
Croatia
Spain
Slovakia
Latvia
Euro area
Portugal
Czech Republic
European Union
United Kingdom
Ireland
Belgium
Netherlands
Slovenia
Poland
Italy
Romania
Bulgaria
Greece
Sursa : AMECO

Consecinte ale economiei
neobservate – cercul vicios

Munca la negru (numar persoane , 2016) – top
sectoare
Munca la negru, 2016 Salariati si patroni Intreprinzatori individuali neinregistrati TOTAL
Diviziuni CAEN2 1,166,486 311,246 1,477,732
47 Comert cu amanuntul, cu exceptia autovehiculelor si motocicletelor 248,017 47,994 296,011
41 Constructii de cladiri 132,120 103,375 235,495
49 Transporturi terestre si transporturi prin conducte 113,381 10,091 123,472
14 Fabricarea articolelor de imbracaminte 69,653 1,666 71,319
69 Activitati juridice si de contabilitate 53,237 16,822 70,059
96 Alte activitati de servicii 43,979 24,784 68,763
45 Comert cu ridicata si cu amanuntul, intretinerea si repararea autovehiculelor 48,647 7,708 56,355
27 Fabricarea echipamentelor electrice 43,675 74 43,749
86 Activitati referitoare la sanatatea umana 38,644 4,151 42,796
33 Repararea, intretinerea si instalarea masinilor si echipamentelor 36,665 888 37,553
56 Restaurante si alte activitati de servicii de alimentatie 26,830 6,007 32,837
31 Fabricarea de mobila 29,678 2,423 32,102
16 Prelucrarea lemnului, fabricarea produselor din lemn si pluta 20,204 3,571 23,775
15 Tabacirea si finisarea pieilor; fabricarea articolelor de voiaj si marochinarie 20,523 745 21,268
13 Fabricarea produselor textile 18,400 383 18,783
85 Invatamant 12,896 5,503 18,399
24 Industria metalurgica 16,121 148 16,270
23 Fabricarea altor produse din minerale nemetalice 13,865 1,978 15,844
63 Activitati de servicii informatice 13,387 1,425 14,812
43 Lucrari speciale de constructii 4,688 10,056 14,744
Sursa : calcule pe baza datelor INS

Sursa : Colin C. Williams, Predrag Bejakovic , Davor Mikulic , Josip Franic , Abbi Kedir and Ioana A. Horodnic , An evaluation of the scale of
undeclared work in the European Union and its structural determinants: estimates using the Labour Input Method,, November 2017

Gap-ul de TVA (% din obligatia de plata la TVA, 2016)
Sursa: Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU -28 Member States: 2018 Final Report, TAXUD/2015/CC/131
0.9 1.1 1.2 2.7 2.7 4.0 4.7 6.8 7.3 8.0 8.0 8.5 9.4 9.7 10.2 11.2 11.3 11.7 11.9 12.3 13.3 13.6 14.2 20.8 24.5 25.7 25.9 29.2 35.9
0510152025303540
Luxembourg
Sweden
Croatia
Spain
Malta
Netherlands
Cyprus
Estonia
Austria
Finland
Slovenia
Denmark
Germany
Belgium
Portugal
Ireland
Latvia
United Kingdom
France
EU average
Hungary
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Poland
Lithuania
Slovakia
Italy
Greece
Romania

Veniturile fiscale au atins minime istorice
27.6
25.9 26.4 29.1 31.2
30.7
28.8 28.4
27.9 27.7 28.3 28.9 28.7
27.3
26.2 27.2 28.2 27.8
27.3 27.4 28.0
26.6
25.8 32.1
29.4 30 32.4 34.6
33.8
32.6 32.9
31.7 32.2 32.3 33.1 34.5
32.4
30.5 33 33.9
33.6
33.2 33.6 35
31.6
30.5
25272931333537
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017Venituri fiscale (% din PIB, ESA2010) Total venituri bugetare (% din PIB, ESA2010)
Sursa : AMECO

48 47.2 46.2
44.5
43.1 42.5 42.5 42 41.3 40.9 40.5 40 39.9 39.2 38.4 38 37.1 36.5
35.4 35.1 35.1 34.4 34.3 33.7 33.3 32.8
31.5
30 29.9
25.8
23
222732374247
France
Denmark
Belgium
Sweden
Finland
Italy
Austria
Greece
Euro area
European Union ex UK
Germany
European Union
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Hungary
Croatia
Portugal
Slovenia
Czech Republic
United Kingdom
Poland
Cyprus
Spain
Estonia
Malta
Slovakia
Latvia
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Romania
IrelandSursa : AMECO Veniturile fiscale sunt foarte mici fata de media
europeana (% din PIB, 2017)

Studiu de caz – colectarea taxelor si impozitelor in
Bulgaria vs Romania
Bulgaria Romania Bulgaria Romania
Venituri bugetare totale 36.1 30.5
Venituri fiscale (din taxe si impozite) 29.8 25.7
TVA 9.3 6.2 20 19
Accize 4.9 3.2
Impozit pe venit populatie 3.4 3.6 10 16
Impozit pe profit firme 2.3 1.7 10 16
Contributii de asigurari sociale 8.6 9.3 32.4 (25.8 la PFA), plafon la 2.5 salarii medii brute 39.35 (16% la PFA), fara plafon
Venituri nefiscale 4.2 2.6 % din PIB, 2017 Cote impozitare, %, 2017
Bulgaria Romania
13.56% 35.88%TVA necolectat la buget (% din obligatia totala de plata la TVA)
2016
Daca Romania ar fi avut rata de colectare la TVA similara cu a Bulgariei
in 2016, veniturile din TVA ar fi fost cu 2.25% din PIB mai mari (17 mld
ron sau 3.8 mld euro)
Sursa : AMECO, Eurostat, Comisia Europeana , calculele autorului

Ponderea cheltuielilor sociale este la maxime istorice
6.6 6.4 5.4 5.8 8.1 7.9 8.3 8.5 8.1 8.1 8.7 9.2 9.4 10.1 10.4 9.6
7.8 7.8 8.1 7.7 7.7 8.9 9.7 10.4 10.3 9.2 9
9.4 10.6 10.3 9.7 9.7 9.3
8.5 8.8 9 8.7 8.9 9.9 12.1 12.8
11.9 11.2 10.7 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.8 11
43%48%53%58%63%68%73%78%83%88%93%
0510152025
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019pAsistenta sociala (% din PIB, ESA2010)
Salarii (% din PIB, ESA2010)
Cheltuieli sociale (% din cheltuielile totale, ESA2010, axa din dreapta)
Cheltuieli sociale (% din veniturile fiscale, ESA2010, axa din dreapta)
Sursa : AMECO

Sursa : Ministerul de Finante , SFB – Strategia Fiscal Bugetara Cheltuielile publice de investitii au fost reduse la
minime istorice

Cheltuieli publice pentru sanatate (stanga ) si educatie
(dreapta ) – % din PIB, medie pe perioada 2000 -2016
3.7 6.8
2.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
Cyprus
Romania
Latvia
Poland
Bulgaria
Luxembourg
Estonia
Hungary
Malta
Lithuania
Spain
Greece
Slovakia
Ireland
Croatia
Slovenia
Sweden
Germany
United Kingdom
Portugal
Netherlands
European Union
Italy
Finland
Belgium
Czech Republic
Austria
France
Denmark
3.6 5.0
3.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.0
Romania
Bulgaria
Slovakia
Greece
Spain
Germany
Ireland
Italy
Czech Republic
European Union
Luxembourg
Austria
Croatia
Netherlands
Hungary
United Kingdom
Malta
France
Poland
Latvia
Lithuania
Belgium
Cyprus
Finland
Slovenia
Portugal
Estonia
Sweden
Denmark
Sursa : EUROSTAT

Solutii de spargere a cercului vicios
•Accelerarea luptei anticoruptie ;
•Toleranta zero la evaziunea fiscala ;
•Restructurarea ANAF;
•Reducerea birocratiei si costurilor de conformare la plata
taxelor ;
•Reformarea sistemului de contributii sociale – principiului
tratamentului echitabil al contribuabililor indiferent de
forma de venit pe care o inregistreaza ;
•Transparentizarea totala a cheltuielilor bugetare pentru
stimularea conformarii voluntare ;
•Regandirea contractului social – beneficiile sociale
trebuie regandite;
•Promovarea platilor non -cash la scara larga.