Business Cycles And Economic Distortions
BUSINESS CYCLES AND ECONOMIC DISTORTIONS
'RAICU GABRIEL, 2STANCA COSTEL, 3RAICU ALEXANDRA
1,2,3Constanta Maritime University, Romania
ABSTRACT
Business cycles are – as in definition of Bums and Mitchell -a type of fluctuation found in the aggregate economic activity of nations that organize their work mainly in business enterprises: a cycle consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many economic activities, followed by similarly general recessions, contractions, and revivals which merge into the expansion phase of the next cycle; in duration, business cycles vary from more than one year to ten or twelve years; they are not divisible into shorter cycles of similar characteristics with amplitudes approximating their own. On the other hand, Julius Shiskin suggested several rules of thumb to identify a recession, which included two successive quarterly declines in gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of the nation's output. What about the present situation – a real, major and global recession or a different kind of business cycle particularity?
Keywords: Business cycles, GDP, global crisis, Keynesian economy, global market, Eurozone, mortgage, recession
INTRODUCTION
The first systematic exposition of periodic economic crises, in opposition to the existing theory of economic equilibrium, was the 1819 Nouveaux Principes d'économie politique by Jean Charles Léonard de Sismondi. [2] Prior to that point classical economics had either denied the existence [3] of business cycles, blamed them on external factors, notably war,[4] or only studied the long term. Sismondi found vindication in the Panic of 1825, which was the first unarguably international economic crisis, occurring in peacetime. Sismondi and his contemporary Robert Owen, who expressed similar but less systematic thoughts in 1817 Report to the Committee of the Association for the Relief of the Manufacturing Poor, both identified the cause of economic cycles as overproduction and under consumption, caused in particular by wealth inequality. They advocated government intervention and socialism, respectively, as the solution. This work did not generate interest among classical economists, though underconsumption theory developed as a heterodox branch in economics until being systematized in Keynesian economics in the 1930s.
Sismondi's theory of periodic crises was developed into a theory of alternating cycles by Charles Dunoyer,[5] and similar theories, showing signs of influence by Sismondi, were developed by Johann Karl Rodbertus. Periodic crises in capitalism formed the basis of the theory of Karl Marx, who further claimed that these crises were increasing in severity and, on the basis of which, he predicted a communist revolution. He devoted hundreds of pages of Das Kapital to crises.
There were frequent crises in Europe and America in the 19th and first half of the 20th century, specifically the period 1815-1939, starting from the end of the Napoleonic wars in 1815, which was immediately followed by the Post-Napoleonic depression in the United Kingdom (1815-30), and culminating in the Great Depression of 1929-39, which led into World War
See Financial crisis: 19th century for listing and details. The first of these crises not associated with a war was the Panic of 1825.
Business cycles in the OECD after World War II were generally more restrained than the earlier business cycles, particularly during the Golden Age of Capitalism (1945/50-1970s), and the period 1945-2008 did not experience a global downturn until the Late-2000s recession. Economic stabilization policy using fiscal policy and monetary policy appeared to have dampened the worst excesses of business cycles, and automatic stabilization due to the aspects of the government's budget also helped mitigate the cycle even without conscious action by policy-makers.
In this period the economic cycle – at least the problem of depressions – was twice declared dead; first in the late 1960s, when Phillips curve was seen as being able to steer the economy – which was followed by stagflation in the 1970s, which discredited the theory, secondly in the early 2000s, following the stability and growth in the 1980s and 1990s in what came to be known as The Great Moderation – which was followed by the Late-2000s recession. Notably, in 2003, Robert Lucas, in his presidential address to the American Economic Association, declared that the "central problem of depression-prevention [has] been solved, for all practical purposes."[11]
2. EVOLUTION OF CYCLES THEORIES
In 1860, French economist Clement Juglar identified the presence of economic cycles 8 to 11 years long, although he was cautious not to claim any rigid regularity.[6] Later, Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter argued that a Juglar cycle has four stages: (i) expansion (increase in production and prices, low interests rates); (ii) crisis (stock exchanges crash and multiple bankruptcies of firms occur); (iii) recession (drops in prices and in output, high interests rates); (iv) recovery (stocks recover because of the fall in prices and incomes). In this model, recovery and prosperity are associated with increases in productivity, consumer confidence, aggregate demand, and prices.
In the mid-20th century, Schumpeter and others proposed a typology of business cycles according to their periodicity, so that a number of particular cycles were named after their discoverers or proposers: [7] the Kitchin inventory cycle of 3-5 years (after Joseph Kitchin); [8]
the Juglar fixed investment cycle of 7-11 years (often identified as 'the' business cycle);
the Kuznets infrastructural investment cycle of 15-25 years (after Simon Kuznets also called building cycle]);
the Kondratiev wave or long technological cycle of 45-60 years (after Nikolai Kondratiev) [9]
Interest in these different typologies of cycles has waned since the development of modern macroeconomics, which gives little support to the idea of regular periodic cycles.[10]
3. ECONOMIC DISTORTIONS AND CRISIS EVOLUTION
The original version of the crisis had its origins in the collapse of the US subprime mortgage derivative deck of cards in 2007 before morphing into a broad- based financial crisis in the fall of 2008. It gradually spread to most other first-world advanced economies, but did not wreck havoc on emerging markets and second and third world nations. Most such economies were insulated from the folly of first-world finance – credit, borrowing, overwhelming debt and onerous interest payments – simply because they did not qualify for the intoxicating elixir of credit [13].
Furthermore, other weaknesses in the global financial system have surfaced. Some financial products and instruments have become so complex and twisted, that as things start to unravel, trust in the whole system started to fail [12].
Securitization was an attempt at managing risk. There have been a number of attempts to mitigate risk, or insure against problems. While these are legitimate things to do, the instruments that allowed this to happen helped cause the current problems, too. In essence, what had happened was that banks, hedge funds and others had become over-confident as they all thought they had figured out how to take on risk and make money more effectively. As they initially made more money taking more risks, they reinforced their own view that they had it figured out. They thought they had spread all their risks effectively and yet when it really went wrong, it all went wrong.
Derivatives, financial futures, credit default swaps, and related instruments came out of the turmoil from the 1970s. The oil shock, the double-digit inflation in the US, and a drop of 50% in the US stock market made businesses look harder for ways to manage risk and insure themselves more effectively [12].
The finance industry flourished as more people started looking into how to insure against the downsides when investing in something. To find out how to price this insurance, economists came up with options, a derivative that gives you the right to buy something in the future at a price agreed now. Mathematical and economic geniuses believed they had come up with a formula of how to price an option, the Black-Scholes model.
In the absence of enough foreign or private sector purchasers, the US central bank, the Federal Reserve Board, has been ‘monetizing’ federal government debt through its purchases of Treasury bonds. The process dubbed Quantitative Easing, by which the FED creates money out of thin air, allows the FED to become the purchaser of last resort of government debt. At the present rate it is expected that the FED will purchase a full 50 percent of all new and maturing Treasury bonds in the current fiscal year [13]. This is necessary simply because there are not enough foreign or domestic, private sector or government buyers to be found at current rates of interest and levels of risk.
Nouriel Roubini [14], famous for his early call on the global financial crisis, has recently pointed to the danger China faces of an economic "hard landing" after 2013. Beijing added massive stimulus to China's economy in 2008 to head off damage to the Chinese economy from the global financial crisis. The government has been relatively unsuccessful in slowing the growth of the money supply, bank credit and fixed investment that helped boost growth – even though the global crisis is clearly in the rearview mirror of a Chinese economy growing 10% a year.
That has led to a major distortion in the Chinese economy, [14] because economic growth in China increasingly depends on investment in fixed assets that may not be economically productive in themselves but produce massive profits for well-connected Chinese officials and businesspeople. That has led to a serious bad-loan problem in China, he says, and has produced massive amounts of excess industrial capacity.
No one will challenge current policies [14] during the leadership transition, but once leaders are in place, China will have to confront these problems. That will mean, I'd say, not only further attempts to dampen bank lending and raise reserve requirements but serious escalation of the battles on these fronts. It will mean new steps to fight inflation. And it might even mean willingness on the part of the new leadership to sacrifice some economic growth to achieve these ends.
One possible alternative to slower growth would be a shift from growth based on exports and investment in fixed assets to one based on domestic consumption. But that would require shifts in the economy – and challenges to powerful interests in that economy – that could be even more disruptive than a slowdown in growth.The bad news, of course, is that the actions of the politicians that support growth now will have to be paid for in 2013.
GLOBAL MEASURES
Until September 2008, European policy measures were limited to a small number of countries (Spain and Italy). In both countries, the measures were dedicated to households (tax rebates) reform of the taxation system to support specific sectors such as housing. The European Commission proposed a €200 billion stimulus plan to be implemented at the European level by the countries. The plan combines short-term measures to stimulate demand and maintain jobs and longer-term measures to invest in strategical sectors, including research and innovation. The aim is to promote growth and ensure sustainable prosperity. The plan includes targeted and temporary measures amounting to 200 billion euros, or 1.5% of EU GDP, using both the national budgets of the national governments, the budget of the EU and that of the European Investment Bank. The plan is scheduled on a period of two years.
At the beginning of 2009, the UK and Spain completed their initial plans, while Germany announced a new plan.
On September 29, 2008 the Belgian, Luxembourg and Dutch authorities partially nationalized Fortis, a former company active in insurance, banking and investment management. The German government bailed out Hypo Real Estate. On 8 October 2008 the British Government announced a bank rescue package of around £500 billion [15] ($850 billion at the time). The plan comprises three parts. The first £200 billion would be made in regard to the banks in liquidity stack. The second part will consist of the state government increasing the capital market within the banks. Along with this, £50 billion will be made available if the banks needed it, finally the government will write away any eligible lending between the British banks with a limit to £250 billion.
In early December German Finance Minister Peer Steinbruck indicated a lack of belief in a " Great Rescue Plan" and reluctance to spend more money addressing the crisis.[16] In March 2009, The European Union Presidency confirmed that the EU was at the time strongly resisting the US pressure to increase European budget deficits. [17]
On September 15, 2008 China cut its interest rate for the first time since 2002. Indonesia reduced its overnight repo rate, at which commercial banks can borrow overnight funds from the central bank, by two percentage points to 10.25 percent. The Reserve Bank of Australia injected nearly $1.5 billion into the banking system, nearly three times as much as the market's estimated requirement. The Reserve Bank of India added almost $1.32 billion, through a refinance operation, its biggest in at least a month. [18] On November 9, 2008 the 2008 Chinese economic stimulus plan is a RMB¥ 4 trillion ($586 billion) stimulus package announced by the central government of the People's Republic of China in its biggest move to stop the global financial crisis from hitting the world's second largest economy. A statement on the government's website said the State Council had approved a plan to invest 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) in infrastructure and social welfare by the end of 2010. The stimulus package will be invested in key areas such as housing, rural infrastructure, transportation, health and education, environment, industry, disaster rebuilding, income-building, tax cuts, and finance.
China's export driven economy is starting to feel the impact of the economic slowdown in the United States and Europe, and the government has already cut key interest rates three times in less than two months in a bid to spur economic expansion. On November 28, 2008, the Ministry of Finance of the People's Republic of China and the State Administration of Taxation jointly announced a rise in export tax rebate rates on some labor-intensive goods. These additional tax rebates will take place on December 1, 2008.[18]
The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and Securities and Exchange Commission took several steps on September 19 to intervene in the crisis. To stop the potential run on money market mutual funds, the Treasury also announced on September 19 a new $50 billion program to insure the investments, similar to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) program. [20], [21] Part of the announcements included temporary exceptions to section 23A and 23B (Regulation W), allowing financial groups to more easily share funds within their group. The exceptions would expire on January 30, 2009, unless extended by the Federal Reserve Board.[22] The Securities and Exchange Commission announced termination of short-selling of 799 financial stocks, as well as action against naked short selling, as part of its reaction to the mortgage crisis.[23]
The interconnectedness of global activity will serve to further destabilize the global financial system in 2012. Although the federal government debt to GDP ratio is surging past 100%, if private indebtedness is included our debt to GDP ratio exceeds 350%. The same calculation reveals a debt ratio of 490% in Japan, 443% in Euro currency countries, and 459% in the United Kingdom. Similar to the U.S., their growth rates are also falling rapidly. In fact, there is compelling evidence that Europe and Japan have already entered recessions. In addition, manufacturing recessions have emerged in China and India, and growth in the Brazilian economy came to a standstill in the third quarter. These contracting growth rates suggest that U.S. exports will contribute to slower growth in 2012.
Exports have been critical [24] to the expansion of the U.S. economy since the end of the last recession. Compared with the tepid rates of expansion in consumer expenditures of 2.1% and overall real GDP of 2.4%, real exports have surged at a 9.7% rate. Thus, the fast rising gain in exports equals slightly more than 48% of the increase in real GDP from the recession low. Considering that exports spur the need for increased nonresidential fixed investment, as well as higher inventories, it is clear that without a booming export sector our expansion since 2009 would have been truly dismal. Unfortunately, the negative feedback of a global recession will not only impair the U.S. exports sector, but also will cause a steeper downturn overseas.
For instance, in Germany, the United Kingdom, and Japan exports accounted for 51%, 30%, and 16% respectively of their GDPs in 2011. In France, Italy and Spain exports averaged about 29% of GDP. The loss of exports to the United States will be most detrimental to the European economies, feeding back to a slower export sector in the United States. [24] Thus, the main driver of growth (exports) for this expansion will be sharply diminished in 2012. The economic slowdown in the US, the eurozone, and China already implies a massive drag on growth in other emerging markets, owing to their trade and financial links with the US and the European Union (that is, no “decoupling” has occurred). At the same time, the lack of structural reforms in emerging markets, together with their move towards greater state capitalism, is hampering growth and will reduce their resiliency.
Finally, long-simmering tensions in the Middle East between Israel and the US on one side and Iran on the other on the issue of nuclear proliferation could reach a boil by 2013. The current negotiations are likely to fail, and even tightened sanctions may not stop Iran from trying to build nuclear weapons. With the US and Israel unwilling to accept containment of a nuclear Iran by deterrence, a military confrontation in 2013 would lead to a massive oil price spike and global recession.
These risks are already exacerbating the economic slowdown: equity markets are falling everywhere, leading to negative wealth effects on consumption and capital spending. Borrowing costs are rising for highly indebted sovereigns, credit rationing is undermining small and medium-size companies, and falling commodity prices are reducing exporting countries’ income. Increasing risk aversion is leading economic agents to adopt a wait-and-see stance that makes the slowdown partly self-fulfilling.
CONCLUSIONS
The political philosopher John Gray, who recently retired as a professor at the London School of Economics, wrote in the London paper The Observer: “Here is a historic geopolitical shift, in which the balance of power in the world is being altered irrevocably.” [25]
Since in the Keynesian view, recessions are caused by inadequate aggregate demand, when a recession occurs the government should increase the amount of aggregate demand and bring the economy back into equilibrium. This the government can do in two ways, firstly by increasing the money supply (expansionary monetary policy) and secondly by increasing government spending or cutting taxes (expansionary fiscal policy). [26]
By contrast, some economists, notably New classical economist Robert Lucas, argue that the welfare cost of business cycles are very small to negligible, and that governments should focus on long-term growth instead of stabilization. All of this seems to be more provocative in the future.
REFERENCES
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. Batra, R. (2002). "Economics in Crisis: Severe and Logical Contradictions of Classical, Keynesian, and Popular Trade Models".
. http://www.thefreemanonline.org/featured/classical- economists-good-or-bad/
. Charles Dunoyer and the Emergence of the Idea of
an Economic Cycle, Rabah Benkemoune, History of Political Economy 2009 41(2):271-295;
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M. W. Lee, Economic fluctuations. Homewood, IL, Richard D. Irwin, 1955
Schumpeter, J. A. (1954). History of Economic Analysis. London: George Allen & Unwin.
Kitchin, Joseph (1923). "Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors". Review of Economics and Statistics (The MIT Press) 5 (1): 10-16. doi:10.2307/1927031. JSTOR 1927031.
Kondratieff, N. D.; Stolper, W. F. (1935). "The Long Waves in Economic Life". Review of Economics and Statistics (The MIT Press) 17 (6): 105-115. doi:10.2307/1928486. JSTOR 1928486.
[ 10] http://www. albany.edu/~bd445/Eco_301 /Slides/ Business_Cycle_Notes_(Print).pdf
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Inevitable! Here’s Why,
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"Gordon Brown should say 'sorry'". London: Telegraph.co.uk. 2009-03-09. Retrieved 2009-03-09
"It Doesn't Exist!". Newsweek.com. 2008-12-06. Retrieved 2008-12-15.
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"Asian central banks spend billions to prevent crash". International Herald Tribune. 2008-09-16. Retrieved 2008-09-21.
"Chinese pharmaceutical exporters to benefit from latest tax rebates increases". Asia Manufacturing Pharma. 2008-12-01. Retrieved 2008-12-01
Gullapalli, Diya and Anand, Shefali. "Bailout of Money Funds Seems to Stanch Outflow", The Wall Street Journal, September 20, 2008.
Bull, Alister. "Fed says to make loans to aid money market funds", Reuters, September 19, 2008.
(Press Release) FRB: Board Approves Two Interim Final Rules, Federal Reserve Bank, September 19, 2008.
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***Wikipedia.org
NAVAL OPERATIONS, IMPORTANT FACTOR OF THE CHANGES IN EFFICIENCY
MANAGEMENT IN SHIPPING
IORDANOAIA FLORIN
Constanta Maritime University, Romania
ABSTRACT
Currently the shipping companies have expanded managerial processes, and they began to be organized departments of logistics, marketing and information. They are based on management principles specific to their organization, but new concepts have emerged about time management and even that of chartering. But in terms of management most problems are with naval operations and crews. In this paper is an analysis of these naval operations. The question arises about what they are, how they influence the costs and efficiency of maritime management company. This information can be used by managers of shipping companies, ship-owners and masters of commercial vessels.
Keywords: company, ship operation, management, efficiency.
INTRODUCTION
At present management processes to a shipping company are divided as in Figure 1, Iordanoaia (2006):
Human Resource Management.
Management of Chartering.
Management of Naval Operations.
Logistics Management.
Financial Management.
Marketing Management.
Management of Maintenance Ship (fleet).
Time Management.
Information Management.
Management Directors (of head office).
The leadership of “top management” in the management processes undertaken at the premises of companies shipping their share is as follows, Figure 2:
Management of naval operations (1): 35-40%.
Logistics Management (2): 30-35%.
Human Resource Management (3): 4-6%.
Chartering Management (4): 4-5%.
Maintenance-Management (5): 3-4%.
Financial Management (6): 3-4%.
Administrative Management (7): 1-2%.
Marketing Management (8): 1-1.5%.
Time Management (9): 1-1.5%.
Information Management (10): 0.5-1%.
From company to company as share these values vary. Situations were observed studying managerial processes more shipping companies, which have different ships and by calculating the number of activities, using simple arithmetic average we obtained these results, TSM (2012). An important variable is time seasonal variations of activities, the period for making repairs to the ship, Beziris et. alt. (1988). They have great influence on the economic efficiency of the shipping company.
INFLUENCES INSPECTIONS AND MAINTENANCE SHIP SEA VESSEL
Ship inspection program is considered as an area “critical” for the fleet management, Branch (1988), where the main objective is to meet the requirements of the Management of vessel, with low cost effective and appropriate services at competitive capacity. This however requires attention mainly on the reliability and operability status of the ship, the correlation of market requirements in relation to its load capacity. In simple terms peak period traffic must “meet” with a full fleet, operational, meeting the demand of charterers.
Factors influencing the formulation of the inspection program include the following, Stan (2003):
Requirements management plan that reflects: the volume of freight traffic in the port of call frequency transport service or ship out how many trips a year, the variety of goods transported. Research-based requirements during inspection and tolerance levels that allow flexibility research data. Working capacity of the terminal-operating costs, together with the storage location of goods, loading of the vessel reported during the ship's travel program.
Extension to the inspection and maintenance work can be started the ship while the ship is in service or parking during the quay at the port.
Age, classification and registration of the ship to the ship register.
-Size operating costs by type of terminal that is brewed during the call of the ship and every ship terminal part. In particular it is necessary to rent additional tonnage to take wastes from the ship for inspection.
Terms of payment of freight, fully, partially or bank deposits. An increasing number of deposits allow a sharing of payment facilities, broken down over the year, affecting cash flow situation of the owner. But it also has negative influences on the company if payment is late.
Requirements I.S.M. Code and I.S.P.F.S. Code
It was found that the best results from inspections are generally obtained through a well planned inspection program during the 12 months of the year, which are fully integrated company management plan requirements. Features computer programs play a key role in analysis and inspections system to monitors. Currently ships are climbed dry dock for load line inspections at intervals greater than two years.
MARITIME
MANAGEMENT
This was possible by adopting management techniques to control board, division of labor inspection across a number of years, we use the best paints, antifouling system, which lengthen the term of protection of the hull, etc. They have made significant contributions to extending the period of ascent ship on dry dock. The three primordial factors are considered: contractual costs, time of call, labor standards seamen. Traditional verification and research ship is to bring the dock, where parts to be inspected are disassembled, cleaned, inspected and reassembled. This method is both times consuming and expensive, but is still largely practiced for several reasons. But a number of alternative inspection methods are currently used and were developed with the classification made by theclassification society. The most important checking and control board are:
. Inspection voyage. Inspector is present during the voyage of the vessel and required inspections performed. If requested, prepare specifications in cooperation with the ship owner or manager on the parties or the facility to be repaired.
. Notation B.I.S. (Built in Water Surveys for inspection). While ship repair is required after a certain period of time, yet for some reason, the interval between repairs has increased considerably. This extended period may conflict with the "normal" technical rules imposed by international regulations. To arrange minor changes on the body and plants, can be obtained BIS notation, which finally allows a range of repair at 5 years.
. Inspection continues. Classification rules require inspections and car body to be held every four years. Alternative continuous systems occur even if inspections are divided by a cycle of five years. For engine inspection shows that the safety rules of this part of the ship, it is inspected by the chief engineer (chief engineer). More maintains the motor vessels, in accordance with established maintenance program, this system can replace the continuous inspection of main engine, so subtract one annual inspection class.
. Planned maintenance system. It shall be a type of approval and may be used as a basis for special inspection arrangements for ships, individually, at the request of the owner. Most ship owners use advanced planning systems and maintenance procedures to increase the demand for cost effective operation. To avoid opening unnecessary equipment and to avoid duplication of work, many companies have introduced a classification alternative inspection arrangements and equipment. The arrangement is based on the planned maintenance system ready for operation ship-owner "on board". This program comprises the following controls:
Company-approved maintenance program classified the owner.
Initial Inspection by inspector company board.
Continuous inspection engine is operating.
Name chief engineer to be approved by classification society.
Annual inspections are made by the chief engineer accepted as class inspections. However annual audit inspection must be made with AGS (Inspection Annual General Meeting). Audit inspection is done to check the arrangements are consistent with agreed procedures. Annual audit inspection report inspector points required by the ship-owner. Inspections were divided over the year and several visits to the board were required to be made by the supervisor. A number of companies have developed a classification system of harmonization of controls, as relevant inspections can be harmonized or synchronized with the requirements of Naval Authority (Maritime) in each country. Each inspection must be made with a tolerance for the link and there are three categories detailed below:
Annual inspections for about one to three months before and after this date.
Two inspections to be made six months before and after the date fixed.
Special inspection in four years, with a one year extension. To ensure total benefit from the harmonization of inspections of the ship owner has the following options:
Inspection during the voyage, and the inspector takes into account the required inspections during the voyage of the ship. If requested and in cooperation with the ship owner, the inspector prepares specifications for the parts to be repaired.
Annually, layout inspection equipment based on a planned maintenance system and approved.
Construction Inspection of vessel at berth, obtained by arranging minor changes to the body and the machine, it increases the range of ship repair in five years.
PLANNING, ORGANIZATION AND FLEET MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Operational fleet planning is very important for company management and the ship. Its role is to use ships or fleet so as to bring the best results, in particular with reference to the market that is also a certain level of profitability that owners and want. This is a "zone" which is very well represented in the company's budget and shipping is usually scheduled for at least two years, but sometimes over 5 years. A number of factors significantly influence decision making in operational planning of the fleet as follows:
-Large ships tend to be more economical, but are generally constrained by the existence less deep water berths. This is a difficult situation for hiring heavy ships, such as oil tankers. A solution to this problem was found by building smaller ships with a draft, but with a greater width.
Small Vessels greater operational flexibility, with easy access to port, maritime market can more easily accept a ship smaller than a larger, particularly at lower traffic in maritime trade during the economic crisis.
Schedules should lead to best use the existing fleet as all ships costs are "out", even if the ships are working or not, go on tour or are pending.
The company must decide if the navigation needs of fleet planning requirements peak, medium or low. You must understand that without the plan and make investments in ships, there is no benefit of high quality shipping services.
Managers need to assess if they are planning for annual growth situation for a request or a drop in demand for ships. Method to consider the need for increased transport capacity should be well considered and thought of, before a decision because it can involve high-capacity ships, rental, new tonnage or fast programming.
The data required for fleet planning will vary depending on the situation, company or market, but also because of forecast revenues and costs, which will be dominant in the evaluation and formulation of fleet plan. Information and data that are required for this are:
Year forecast traffic demand, which is given by the Marketing department.
Looking for new business prospects, which are obtained for transport, such as those of perishable goods. Data provided by the marketing department may include maritime market research results.
Details of seasonal peak demand and low months, together with an analysis of the goods contained, storage and revenue factors. They will determine the precise demand and income at different times of the year and will facilitate the choice of how best to provide economic carrying capacity, on the mix of goods and net income will be obtained.
Specification acceptance ship ports and berths together with any fluctuations or other constraints.
Port and the costs of their implementation.
Travel-time of each type of transport or shipping
route. This is usually provided by the superintendent sea from a port or another.
Individual-capacity transport ship and its validity over the 12 months of the year, taking into account the demands inspections.
-Transshipments facilities on board and whether the port can be used to accelerate the download time and return the ship to reduce port costs.
-The cost of the voyage from a port and at berth, together with other relevant costs, including travel in port, fuel costs, which will vary depending on the port, the cost of the ballast voyage, the ship MF. For certain periods of time, the company may require driving the ship master and chief engineer to calculate and order the ship to a speed at which consumption is reduced or optimized, usually a half of maximum speed. This leads to increased time-to-sea voyage, but a fleet level, reducing fuel costs and lubricants will be significant.
Alternative options such as the rental costs over the peak period.
The cost of the crew.
Fleet planning must always be related to:
Annual budgets and the total fleet of ships.
Economic forecasts.
Annual investment options.
Maritime market-trends.
Policy flag State or other states of the working area, the European Union or the World Wars Trade Organization.
This planning is facilitated by using specialized computer programs at the company, but those who use, general managers and logistics, must be familiar with market conditions and trends related to the use of the ship (or fleet of ships) on a profitable. Together with fleet planning, corporate business plan is an important task management and shipping company in its proper fleet management. This involves the use of the criteria, but can be influenced in particular the classification of the ship, the markets they operate ships and goods carried as follows:
-The first objective for the Steering Committee of the shipping company is to complete the business plan that will meet the fleet manager, working always within the framework of shipping, considering the safety of the ship (the ship) is the first principle from which begins designing a business plan. Business-plan should reflect the objectives of the company Board. It must be market driven, what is going on this, the annual budget is established based on agreement of all committee members. Fleet-capacity resources must be matched market forecasts sea and must be reflected in the annual budget and program of trips estimated shipping. Maximum resources to be available during peak activity. This is a very important task of logistics department Business-plan should be aimed at reducing costs and income are related to the mixture of freight transported on each trip to ensure that the income provided (estimated) annual budget will be achieved.
The shipping or travel, arising from the business plan requires special attention on:
Port costs,
Purchasing, facilities and fuel costs,
Area in which the port terminal,
Port technology,
Navigation-needed economic resources,
MF-compatible with fuel costs used.
Competition and obtain income from freight transported (of freight),
Cost of transshipment cargo.
Port infrastructure,
Time return of the ship,
Autonomy, in nautical miles, day sailing and stationary, and validity of food-storage on board, etc.
Fuel, ship repair and inspection of the vessel shall be considered given the port and terminal arrangement reached by ship. In terms of planning they are considered the company's strategic goals of maritime navigation. To be cost effective, must involve the payment stage inspection programs and to cause minimum loss established travel program.
Management of the ship, crew and vessel inspection program is an area of "critical", which generates costs. In fact this is the biggest source of problems for fleet management, the company, its owners or stockholders.
Port costs, disbursements and insurance are all considered "areas" that require constant review to ensure that the ship owner is a profitable business that can make new investments.
FACTORS INFLUENCING SHIPPING SERVICE QUALITY
The current shipping is considered that there are five factors that influence the nature of such shipping service: speed, frequency, re-return, cost and quality of service. Fast and frequent services with re-return ship will be found generally in the liner trade, taking into account that usually can be found cheaper transport ships like "tramp". Speed and frequency of service are essential for safe cargo such as fruit and vegetables. Consumer goods manufacturers evaluate speed so as to reduce the risk of spoilage and cost of goods in transit. The need for high speed is required over the longdistance trade, which can be appreciably reduced during the voyage, and the sender shall benefit for quick deliveries.
Frequently service may be important where goods may be sold in small quantities at frequent intervals. Rereturn is important for shippers who have deadlines to letters of credit and import licenses. It also means that goods must arrive in good condition and shipping companies must provide adequate facilities at the docks and their offices to complete the necessary documents and other port and customs formalities. These requirements are recognized and meet operators (charterers, major importers) liner, which require high speed vessels, which have additional capital and bear all operating costs involved, sharing the stage navigation (voyage), to match supply their customers with goods pace required. Price of transport rates for these services, are stable but somewhat higher than those of the ship "tramp". Vessel owners may maintain rates at a reasonable level to make a profit, although they must ally with shippers to ensure that rates are so high that it influences the final prices of goods transported, which would lead to decrease in market demand. There is some justification in arguing that "charterers of ships carrying goods line, you must pay high shipping costs for this service", in relation to navigation "tramp". Low-value goods, on the other hand, must be transported as cheaply as possible because the cost of transport is directly related to airworthiness. Many of these categories goods such as coal, ore, timber, grain and other bulk goods, are generally transported as scheduled arrangements, so that speed and frequency of service have a minor significance, i.e. no major influence final costs. But most important is the validity of space transportation vessels such as "tramp", where price rates vary by market supply and demand. If there is space available, rates will be only marginal cost of operating the ship. When the market is strong, rates will increase, but an upper limit will be determined by the prospective price of goods, the moment of sale. Prices remain a dominant factor in choosing service by the sender (charterer), despite the fact that governments and trade policy discrimination Flag exercise greater influence in international shipping. In broad terms the distribution costs are 8-15% of the total cost of production. It is also important for sea cargo price to be fixed at a reasonable level, but generate profits necessary to sustain a modern fleet. Service quality is now an issue of great importance in modern shipping and international trade today. Service provided should be customer-oriented, focusing on a safe and movements of goods in an effective way. Transshipments cargo must be effective and does not lead to destruction, partial or total. Wins if cargo carrier receives the deposit and sends it into production or sell, not compensation from the insurer. The management of shipping should be directed to the quality of service rendered to maintain customers, repetition and continuity to get transport.
COST-REDUCTION FACTOR OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
Can be considered irrespective of the shipping company, the type of ship transport, sea transport way (line or "tramp"), the place where the head office of the company or Flag, nature and the costs are similar. In reality, major differences occur between shipping companies, which have a range of costs for office operation, costs of salaries of persons employed on the premises, pay taxes, etc., like all other shipping companies, but this is different through a series of specific costs, which are all quite large. Running a shipping company must take into account their level, their share in total business costs. For a company shipping costs are the following main groups:
Administrative overheads or company.
Vessel operating expenses.
Vessel impairment.
Travel expenses.
The cost of loading / unloading of ships.
A number of specialist companies shipping expenses divided as follows:
-Operating expenses of the ship on which the share is:
-30-45% cost of crews,
-20-30% Technical expenses,
-10-15% cost of insurance,
-7-12% cost with shipping supplies and equipment,
-4-8% cost of lubricants.
Financial costs are given by the fees and taxes paid.
There are also a number of external factors affecting the costs of:
Type of ship,
Area navigation.
Degree of hazard of goods transported,
Insurances for ship and crew, etc.
Reducing costs to the shipping company is a very important and is always very topical, given the competition in the maritime, economic and personal crises experienced in the last 20 years. But this is not a simple problem to be solved immediately, without consequences on the ship and its safety. For running a shipping company that is easier to reduce some administrative costs, overhead, staffing, but reducing costs is more difficult vessels. Over the past 10 years have seen a number of measures that were adopted by the management of shipping companies as:
Changing the organizational structure.
Reduce the staffing.
Outsourcing of certain services to specialized companies (crewing, accounting).
Change of flag-ship by registration in a country with tax cuts and tax (tax havens).
Renting ship-management companies shipping.
The introduction of computer performance.
The introduction of modern communication technologies, etc.
But most problems are the vessels there have been, are and will be the most difficult problems in the future about costs, how to reduce theirs. In the past 20 years companies have adopted a series of measures, some drastic cost reduction and during this time period there were many conflicts in this case. The first measure was to reduce the number of crew members. Thus there were significant reductions of approx. 40-50 people in the early 80s, 15-20 today, their number varying by type of vessel. The second measure was the retrieve a greater number of tasks to persons on board boats, increase their risk even decrease of ship safety. Standing there was disputes between owners, authorities and trade unions the increasing number of tasks of the boat. A very important measure was the introduction of modern computers, reducing the time of writing official documents issued by the ship, sending information to the company, receiving messages with managers, etc.. Another milestone was the modernization of means of communication between parties as between ship and company management, ship agents, ship and brokers, ship and authority, company and third parties.
The highest costs are those crews. But companies have sought alternatives to crew "expensive", with more cheaply. That replaced the sailors and officers from European countries with those in India, the Philippines and in recent years in China. But after a short time shipowners and ship managers have observed that the reduced quality of service provided on board, the increased number of accidents, incidents and remarks received checks authorities and auditors. Currently there are major distortions on the employment of seafarers, we can say that there is some confusion about future developments of seafarers. Technical costs are second in total cost share. Therefore reducing technical costs of the shipping company is a challenge for logisticians and managers for business professionals. Reduce technical costs, principle can be made by:
Reduce the maintenance costs of the vessel by:
Standardization of material consumption.
Ship maintenance, planning and daily maintenance materials, weekly and monthly.
Hiring a highly skilled staff that would have qualified to obtain a high yield of activities. But ask qualified personnel salaries!
Accurate planning of ship-repair.
Evidence of the precise materials and spare parts.
Provide means of work, tools and equipment performance, renewed stock of spare parts and consumables from suppliers that offer the best price- quality ratio.
Avoid large stocks of parts.
You can use e-procurement through public bidding or negotiation to obtain discounts or discount sites. Reducing costs is a high boats, is directly related to naval operations management, at the logistics and marketing industry. In this type of role of logistics and marketing costs are very important purchase lifeboats, rescue equipment, fire fighting equipment and pyrotechnic materials that have high prices, are through electronic auctions. After replacing them at the end land use, the old can be sold to certain institutions or companies can use under certain conditions. Loading equipment, deck, mechanical installations, metal or rope ropes reduce purchase costs for new ones can be avoided by following the maintenance and repair measures on time, quality and especially the ongoing assessment of their status to avoid failures or worsening of these defects.
The motor vessel, its service facilities and electric equipment deck to avoid failure should be observed operating security features and their parameters, perform maintenance and repairs on time and quality. Another cost is related to consumption of drinking water, which must always be rationalized, even if this may cause dissatisfaction crew. It is recommended to use a program to limit water consumption on board. For reducing paint on board is recommended routine maintenance when dry weather conditions allow it, according to the technical characteristics of paint, use painting tools and instruments in performance, to avoid losses, to purchase from suppliers who can provide the quantity and quality needed . For chemicals used in strict compliance with the board recommends how to use them and avoid losses. To avoid additional consumption of fuel and lubricants is recommended the following activities: precise planning of the voyage from berth to berth, making precise navigational control of the position the ship for immediate correction of deviations from the road, their boarding providers that offer best price on the market.
For reducing administrative materials on board ships required the following measures: accurate calculation of daily consumption, weekly, monthly and annual maintenance materials, detergents, soap, etc. and supplies by public auction (electronic, online). For reducing office supplies necessary for the following measures: accurate calculation of consumption, use of standardized forms to reduce paper consumption, recharge printers on board, reducing the number of printed documents, use. To reduce costs to purchase clothing items are recommended only for areas and season where navigation is performed, for example for navigation during the winter will only purchase specific equipment, similar vessel in the shipping route in the tropical and equatorial will purchase equipment that may be faced by the crew considering the high temperatures, using a uniform means to reduce their costs by making a single supplier chosen by competition, cost reduction is significant especially for companies that have a large number of members and control for manufacturing is high, protective equipment can be purchased directly from producers auction.
NAVAL OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT IMPACT ON EFFICIENCY IN SHIPPING
For to determine this impact can use several methods of economic analysis. In the shipping can be used the method of the cost-effectiveness analysis based on the critical point method known as “threshold” of return. The critical point is actually an equilibrium that can be used to determine the size of company activity, following the statement of revenue derived from contracts of carriage (freight) and expenditure. Costs are fixed and variable and the dependent variable workload. In relation to the dynamic activities of the company and the ships, the company accounts are found grouped in fixed costs and variable, with the following evolution:
-Fixed costs per unit are variable (treated as one vessel or the entire fleet), with a total constant, and they decrease with increasing number of the transportation contracts.
-Variable costs are constant per unit in size, but their amount increases with increasing number of activities or transportation contracts.
The relationship between the sum of all operating expenses and total transport activities to be carried across a ship or fleet must be used to determine the minimum level of income to be obtained to cover these expenses. Meeting point of these is in fact break even. Above this threshold yield should obtain profit for the company. From here we actually observe management effectiveness and impact of management on naval operations as a whole. Methodology to perform calculations and then breakeven analysis is differentiated for a vessel for the entire fleet or all of the shipping company if it has in its scope and shipping related activities. Another important aspect that can be used to understand the impact and effectiveness of management decisions on naval operations, value chain analysis is the shipping company. In principle a shipping company has the following value chain analysis activities, Iordanoaia (2006):
Decomposition transport process is relatively simple and entities contributing to the service are in a very small number as follows:
Ship: runs the crew, approx. 15-20 people.
General Manager: holding the “key” of the business.
Deputy Directors, specifically those responsible for the ship, Logistics, Technical and
Marketing: approx. 4-6 people.
Primary activity is the transport of goods, containing loading and unloading vessels.
Support activities are only those related to:
Quality-control and safety.
Boats.
Human Resources management.
The last two activities “support” can be outsourced to specialized companies, companies that take tasks and even if they contribute to the value of service activities not belonging to the company directly. Effectively use the value chain shipping company consists of the following steps:
Decomposition process.
Award costs.
Identify critical activities.
Identify valuable employees.
Identifying value-links.
Optimization links.
Decomposition process. Transport process is dependent on how ships are engaged on the line or “tramp”. Value generating activity is represented by loading the ship. When the contract is provided as loading and unloading operations to be performed with the help of the board, the service will increase, but the share of such additional activities is limited, basically just some type cargo ships and Ro-Ro is can make, and some ships have no such possibility because the way they have been built and that the board was abandoned facilities for these operations.
Award costs. Shipping company costs were already presented in this paper. Their effects on the company are very important and are not an easy task to reduce them.
Identification of critical activities. Implementation of the I.S.M. Code principles on board imposed the preparation of the lists of critical situations that may arise on board and that may have negative effects on it, the goods and the crew. Avoiding responsibility is so critical situations commander, crew, and the other factors of responsibility within the company. Avoid critical situations in a year means that brokers offer additional guarantees that the goods will reach their destination on time and keeping business characteristics of the goods. The procedures used on board and maintained at the company are kept strict to all these critical situations.
Identification of valuable employees. This step is easier to shipping companies “tramp”, where brokers are those who seek cargo charterers bring the owners to contracts of transport. Maintaining relationships with them is very important and their role in this type of navigation can not be underestimated.
Identifying value-links. In the maritime transport relations are among the most important practically very little chance that a shipping company manages to resist without realizing a system of relations with partners, to keep these relationships.
Optimization links. This stage is essentially “naval operations management”. Figure 2 shows the share of management processes within the shipping company. To be optimized link is needed primarily a classification of such activities:
Direct-ship management. Activity commander is required.
Supply ship. Liability is the company (the director of logistics, technical director or general director) and the vessel's agent, on orders from the master and the chief engineer.
Searching charter contracts which is required by charter or marketing director.
Searching for the best-trained officers and sailors, is the Director of Human Resources or crewing company, when the service is outsourced.
Management's headquarters, the administrative director.
CONCLUSIONS
Change management activities in naval operations, involving direct cost variation. This link is established by those measures which they adopt maritime shipping companies to reduce costs. But as in any economic activity, especially in service provision, reducing investment costs by reducing or cutting spending, may have negative effects on medium and long term. Analysis of shipboard situations when reduced crew members, when they cut out parts lists, provide evidence on the downside quality service and lower yields on board facilities. Currently searching for new solutions to increase the role of logistics in naval operations, both in terms of the technical, maintenance, especially in the boats about.
Thus it is advisable to seek solutions to the global organization of the fleet of activities, effective use of information obtained from the maritime market, total involvement of human resources on board and at the company, determining the optimal level of shipping service for eliminate accidental costs, in order to avoid empty vessels traveling without cargo and reduce the time for current and capital repairs. All these aspects are very important for correct decision making by managers of shipping companies to achieve maximum business efficiency.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
For the ship management company “Thome”.
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THE INFLUENCES OF MARKETING PARTICULARITIES IN SHIPPING
IORDANOAIA FLORIN
Constanta Maritime University, Romania
ABSTRACT
Among the most important aspects of the maritime company marketing is the life cycle of a ship. Managers should be aware of aspects of the operational period until the moment of the current and capital repairs, the degree of use of the ship and separately for each installation. These aspects are not easy to be calculate because there appear a series of aspects connected to the shipping zone, the type of the transported goods, the way of exploitation and maintenance performed by the crews, the number of the exploitation days and many more others. The life cycle of the service performed by the ship, in fact the type of the transported goods is very important taking into account the changes on the maritime market, the competition between shipping companies, the development of the international economy and the requests of the customers of the shipping companies. In this paper, there are analysed the two aspects which a ship represents, as "product” and as a performed "service” and it is presented a type of analyze for a maritime ship.
Keywords: maritime, marketing, service, life cycle, ship. 1. INTRODUCTION
Any product, during its presence on the market, evolves in a specific manner, this being known under the name of “life cycle”. The life cycle of the product can be defined as ”a process which is developed in time, starting with the launching and reaching the coming out of the product from the market”, Niculescu (2000) et al. The life cycle of the product is similar to the biological life cycle of the human being, including stages or phases as: the birth, the growing up, the maturity and the decline. Specifically to the marketing approach it is the fact that at each stage of the life cycle of the product, the company can use different kinds of strategies, being in concordance with the objectives which the company establishes, with the available resources, and according to other factors, Prutianu (2002) et al. The life cycle of an ordinary product is influenced by the general strategy of the productive company in a certain moment or in certain specific or circumstantial periods, Catoiu (2002) et al.
The study of the life cycle of the products has a great importance due to the following aspects: the possibility of explanation of the behavior of the product market, the identification of the actions performed by the competition, the influence of the commercial strategy of the company, etc, Kotler (1996) et al. The main aspects which characterized the life cycle of the product are given by the evolution of the sales, of the profits and the evolution of the orders and requests. The evolution of the product on the market can be described by a life cycle which the main stages are the launching, the growing up, the maturity and the decline. The launching or introduction stage of the product on the market or the birth stage of this supposes the expressing of the request for the product, its carriers being in this case the consumers of the ”innovative” or ”curious” type willing to try the product. The characteristics of this stage are the following: the low profits due mainly to the high costs of production and commercialization, the high prices, the selective distribution, the intense advertising pointed towards the innovators, etc. The growing up stage of the product supposes an evolution in a favorable way of the sales, the preponderantly used strategy being that of penetrating the market, respectively of convincing a larger and larger number of consumers to buy the product. This stage can be described by the following elements: the increase of the profits, the consequence of the high prices and the request found in increasing, the applied distribution is preponderantly intense, the advertising aims at the advantages of the brand, the product starts to differentiate itself etc. The maturity stage appears in the conditions of saturation of the market and of the stabilization of the sales, during this registering the maximum of sales, Sasu (1998). The defining elements of this stage are: the establishing of a relatively fixed structure of the company offer, which includes a reduced number of brands with a very-well defined position, the profits are reduced, the prices are maintained at a high level, the communication is that of a persuasive type and tries to differentiate and to maintain the brand image, the advertising is moderate, taking into account that the product is already known, it is applied the promotion of the sales towards the consumers and distributors, the channels of distribution are stable and the advantages offered to the distributors are high, with the purpose of maintenance the product on the market, they are considered offers much more complex which include the product, at which it is added a certain number of services, etc.
The decline stage appears in the conditions in which the product is morally worn out, it can’t respond anymore to the requests of the consumers. It is required, in this context, the redefinition of the product in the purpose of maintaining the request at an acceptable level. This stage can be characterized through: the decrease of the prices and of the profits (which are transformed in losses), the selective style distribution, the advertising in a minimum intensity, pointed towards the low price, etc. It is permanently shown a close connection between the life cycle of the product and the typology of the strategies used by the company. There can be considered from this perspective two levels of analyze, thus: on the one hand it is concretized the strategies which the company can adopt in theoretical stages of the life cycle of the product, and on the other hand the strategies which are adapted to the specific life cycle of each product. From the strategies perspectives which are adapted to the specific life cycle of each product, there are usually differentiated the following situations: The companies whose products cover a long maturity stage or which sales increase in a continued manner, act, with priority, in the following directions, Kotler (1999) et al: the use of some distributions channels as short as possible; the innovation of the products; the comparative advertising; the extensive distribution; the maintenance of some competitive prices. The companies whose products succeeded in penetrating fast on the market act for: maintaining a productive capacity which allows the survival on the market found in increase; keeping a good position on the market using the quality and the brand image. The companies whose products are in the stage of the decline and which could be abandoned have to: think and position again the product; appeal to the classical variables of marketing in order to increase the sales. The life cycle of the product is a concept which tries to describe the sales and the profits of the product, the consumers, the competition and the specific marketing actions performed from its appearance and until its removing from the market or more precisely, the period of time between the moment of the launching of a product on a given market and the period of its complete withdrawal from that market. The analyze of the life cycle of the product should have into consideration the following definitive elements, Boronad (2001) et al, too: The life cycle of the product is not identical with the period in which the product is in the use of the consumer: in certain situations, the withdrawal of the product from the market is not synonymous with its withdrawal from use/consume. The life cycle of the product is not identified with the life cycle of the group of the products from which this belongs to, respectively of the market of the product.
THE LIFE CYCLE OF AN ORDINARY SERVICE
The marketing of the services was considered as a distinct domain as a result of a long relative process characterized by a series of delimitations which happened on different plans which defined the concrete content of the marketing (Kotler et al, 1996). Although it was first applied in the material goods domain, the conception of the marketing happened gradually in other domains of the social life. The assertion period of the marketing in services coincided with the period in which in the international economy the services knew a strong development. Once with the development of the society it imposed the necessity of using the methods, the techniques and the instruments specific to the marketing in order to anticipate the market reactions, the knowledge of the changes inside the market and not the last thing to counteract the competition. No matter the way in which there are presented the features and the specific of this domain, it is sure that the marketing of the services is made up as a specialized domain,
autonomous, clearly differentiated, found in
consolidation and permanent development. The
economical and social dynamism from the material production domain, the transformations made in the last years from the people mobility point of view reflected in the transport activities. The transport activities are based at the same time on equipments, infrastructure and human resources. As the other types of services, one of the main objectives in this domain is the synchronization of the offer with the request of transport services. In order to transform the offer of the services from potential into effective, it is implied the state, on the one hand, through macro economical decisions appropriate especially in the legislative and infrastructure domain, and, on the other hand, the economical agents who perform these services. The different kinds of transport, of people or of goods, which also can be: terrestrial transports, maritime or in the air, imposed the delimitation, the specification and the application of the methods and the techniques of marketing differentiated for each of these types. From here, it appears the necessity of determination of the elements specific to the shipping domain and to its characteristics.
THE LIFE CYCLE OF A MARITIME SHIP
The life cycle of a ship can be dealt with from two points of view, thus: the ship as a product and the service performed by the ship, Iordanoaia (2005). The builder shipyard is interested in the ship as a product, according to its type, because these can be asked for by ship owners according to the evolution of the market. The ship owner is interested in the life cycle of the service performed with the help of the ship, according to the type of the navigation and to the employment contract. Between the two situations there is a close connection because the existence of the transport service, the request of the market for ships of a certain type makes that a shipyard adapts, responds to the request of the ship owner. Sometimes the shipyard builds a ship of a certain type then it never has orders for this type and it re orientates its capacities of production towards other types of ships, so that it can say that it made a unique product.
PHASES OF THE LIFE CYCLE OF A SHIP AS PRODUCT. The life cycle of a ship is very important for the builder shipyard because the research of such a cycle supposes: the establishment of the general and the specific factors which act upon the life duration of a ship, the determination of the stage in which there is in a certain moment each of the main components of the category from which it takes part, the estimation of its future evolution on the maritime market. The research of the life cycle of the ships can lead to the obtaining of some ideas and solutions which concern the policy from the shipping building domain and from the maritime transports for the type of the ship submitted to the analyze, starting from its modernization in the opportune moment, the change of the initial destination (as it is in the case of the multi functional ships) or if it is the case even its taking out from the operational state, its selling at "second hand” or at old iron, once with the launching in the sea of a new ship, Bauchet (1992). The life cycle of a ship is influenced from the moment of its launching in the sea and its entrance in the service due to the action of some factors: heterogeneous, general, specific, with a direct action, with an indirect action, controllable and uncontrollable. According to the way in which it is conjugated the action of such factors it will result a large variety of the trajectories of the life cycle of the ship. Starting from the general criterion accepted and mainly easier to be determined, the life cycle of a ship crosses more stages thus: the launching on the maritime market, the growing up or the development, the maturity, then the saturation of the market and the decline of the type of the ship. Most of the cases the concept of ”life cycle of the type of the ship” is presented under the form of a graphical profile. The volume of the sales of the ships of the same type will pass through more phases due to the appearance of other types of ships which will replace them on the market. In figure 1 it is presented the life cycle of an ordinary product, this graphic corresponds more to the situation of the small ships, those of the passengers type, sports boats and tourists’ ones because they are produced by the series shipyards, even on the basis of a potential request, then they are taken out for sale on the market and after a certain period of time, according to the graphic, these ’’products” are replaced or withdrawn from the market. For the maritime ships of huge tonnage, built in series, the graphic has a special form, which differs from a ship type to another. Even in the situation of the building of some ships from the same series, these are not totally identical, due to the technical progress, to the appearance of some new machines and installations which are assembled on the same ”ship body”. Analyzing the factors which determine the duration and the structure of the life cycle of the type of the ship it is observed that these can be general and specific:
.From the category of the general factors there can take part: the technical-scientific progress of the equipments of shipping, communications, deck installations, and naval engines; the increase of the income of the ship owners and their exigency; the income increase of the ”non-sailors” (amateurs) who wish to buy yachts and sport boats. These factors emphasize the moral use of the types of the maritime, river and tourists’ (of pleasure) ships or existed in a certain moment on the maritime market, Branch (1998).
.From the category of the specific factors there can take part: the type of the maritime ship (its destination); the size of the order, it means a single ship or more ships; the capacity of the ships to be able to be used for the transport of other types of goods; the size of the order: unique, of small or big series; the regulations of the economical legislation, etc. Besides these factors, there must be added the ones directly connected to the builder shipyard, aspect which has a decisive influence upon the life duration of the ships. Corresponding to each stage from the life cycle of the ”products”, stages in which the sales reach different levels, there are necessary policies as different as the marketing, viewing the technical-functional characteristics of the ships, a certain price and distribution strategy, a different promotion policy. The duration of the life cycles of the products differ from a product to another, all being dominated by the correlation between the volume of the sales and the profit. In the conditions of the establishment of a connection between the life cycle and the curve ”of adopting the product by the consumers”, the passing from a phase to another of the life cycle will take place in accordance with the number of the ship owners or the amateurs who buy this type of ships. The entrance of the type of the ship in the decline phase supposes its abandonment gradually and in this way the restriction of the number of the customers. The shortness of the life cycle of the type of the product is a process which characterizes the majority of the modern industry branches. For each shipyard it shows a great importance both the total length of the life cycle of the ships, no matter their type, and the duration of each phase partly, the obtained benefit being found in a direct connection to the number of the ships made on the market. Even though there is a tendency of the request of the ship owners for building some unique ships, still the most advantageous for the shipyard is to build more ships of the same type or following the same project, McConville (1999). The ship owners, as a majority, are people who worked on the ship board, have sea experience and know the maritime market, but their training does not allow them the integral knowledge of the process of a ship building. Thus, these launch an order for the building of a ship, but the managers of the shipyard can make offers of building the same type of ship to other ship owners, too. If the project of building belongs to the shipyard, then this can sell it to other shipyards or ship owners. Another aspect of great importance is connected to the fact that an initial project can get to be changed in a proportion of 10-30%, due to the technical problems connected to the way of building the ship. This aspect is relevant because it helps us to understand why the ships from the same series do not look the same one with another.
“THE LIFE HOPE” OF THE SHIP. In theory and practice of the modern Marketing it is considered that when it is made the final decision of launching on the market of ”a new product” it is taken into consideration a certain ”life hope” of this, Niculescu (2000) et al. According to the prognosticated volume of the sales and of the benefits, the life hope of the product offers an economical justification for its propelling on the market. In real the conditions of the market, the companies can’t control, only in exceptional cases, the trajectory of the life cycle of the product, these are limited only to the surveillance of the evolution of the product on the market so that it can influence favorably its trajectory. Thus, through the permanent report of the pattern of the life cycle of the product to its real evolution on the market, the mix of the product will be adapted to the requests specific to the phases which the product practically passes through. In the shipping transport domain ”the life hope” of the ship is very important for the ship owners, because this has double meaning: technical and economical, Iordanoaia (2004). From the technical point of view, it is stated that a ship, after a few years of exploitation, gets to a certain technical use being necessary a series of partial or capital repairs. These must be planned and executed rigorously because they have direct influences upon the time in which the ship is
not found in exploitation. From economical point of view it is stated a certain ’’moral” use, it means new ships appear, with new installations and modern apparatus, with superior speed, with reduced consume of fuel and even with a reduced number of crew members. This type of use reduces the hope of life of the ship, that’s why it is important for the ship owner to be informed with the new evolutions and tendencies in the shipping transport, to anticipate and then to plan the modernization of the ships in order to prolong their life, both from the technical point of view and from the economical point of view. The withdrawal of the ship from the exploitation, selling it at ”the second hand” or at old iron must be anticipate in good time, and the choice of this moment must be chosen carefully, the establishments of the ways of avoiding the forced elimination of the ship from the market can lead even to the obtaining of some certain advantages. The problem of evaluation of the ”life hope” of the ship supposes a fair, realistic evaluation, but such a measure supposes the estimation of the probable life duration of the ship, still before its launching in the sea, and on the other hand after it was launched, the diagnosis of the phase from the life cycle which the ship reached, of its chances of ’survival”. In the case of the economical theories there is used a series of methods to find the respond for the two problems.
The first is represented by the possibility of evaluation of the life duration of the ship, right before the launching of the building order. This is a problem of anticipation, being able to use the method of the phenomenological extrapolation, Stopford (1997). Thus the ship can belong to a certain class, category or group, whose evolution determined by the life cycle and by the shape of its curve is known from the previous experiences. The second is the comparison method which starts from the premise that the ship evolution on the market can be the same with that which had the same type of ship on another market or even on the same market, in this case being about the transport routes, CIM (2007). There can be also used a series of intuitive methods of anticipation or simulations techniques, but the most used is the method of analyze the statistical data which regards the evolution of the sales and of the ships building from that type. In the table no.l there are presented the main types of the maritime ships, with the anticipated duration of exploitation, the medium duration, the number of years until the first capital repair, the maximum number of years estimated in the active service (of exploitation) and the way of use after its taking out from the service, before its ship breaking.
The study of the author has at its basis: The situation of the ships built in the shipyards from: Constantza, Mangalia, Tulcea, Braila, Orsova and Galati from Romania, Varna from Bulgaria and others. The situation of the ships entered the capital repairs from The Maritime Fleet Exploitation Company ”Navrom” between the years 1970-1989, from the maritime shipping companies with state capital: ”Navrom” between the years 1990-1998, ”Petromin” between the years 1990-1999, ”Romline” between the years 19901997, National Company “CFR-Goods”, ferry-boat agency Constantza between the years 1996-2008. The situation of the ships of the Romanian maritime shipping companies with private capital: ”Mihei Shipping” between the years 1995-2008, ”Histria Shipmanagement” between the years 1994-2011, ”Idu Shipping” between the years 1995-2004, ”North Star Shipping” between the years 1994-2007, ”Cosena” between the years 1995-2006, “Coremar” between the years 1995-2011. The situation of some foreign maritime shipping companies: ”Zodiac” and “Tanker Pacific” between the years 1998-2011, “Dubai Shipping” between the years 1995-2011, “Santos” Bolivia between the years 1995-2007, “Neptun Orient Line” Barcelona between the years 2002-2010, “Maersk” between the years 1995-2011, “Thome Ship Management” between the years 2000-2011, but from other companies, too. The information was obtained through direct contacts with the general managers of the companies, with ship captains and the personnel hired at these companies headquarters or at their agencies from abroad. I took a number of 155 of maritime ships with tonnages between 5,000-165,000 tdw thus: 23 oil tankers, 14 chemical tankers, 10 LPG, 26 port-containers, 11 bulk carriers, 18 cargoes, 13 Ro-Ro-s, 7 ferry-boats, 8 line passengers, 4 cruise passengers for tourists, 9 special ships and 12 auxiliary ships. I consider that the study is estimated because margin of error is of 2,5-3 %, what at the total number of 155 of ships is quite much, also it is possible that from certain reasons the people who I asked the information wouldn’t give me all the necessary information. Thus in the margin of error enters certain wrong information and numbers, certain situations of the ships which were not taken into consideration by the ship owners, etc. But the results of the calculations can help us to understand the time period of exploitation of some types of ships.
THE LIFE CYCLE OF THE SERVICE PERFORMED BY THE SHIP
The life cycle of a service depends on its character, on the characteristics of the services which impose certain economical determinations. Starting from the characteristics of the services there can be made analyses and interpretations of their life cycle. The main characteristics and features of the services are the following:
A) The intangible nature of the result of the activity, meaning that the services can’t be appreciated qualitatively before of being bought or performed. Due to the fact that in the case of the shipping transports many contracts are obtained due to the previous relationships between the ship owners and charterers in the case of line shipping, it is possible that the charterers could anticipate the way of performing the service, meaning he could have trust in the ship owner, that the goods will reach well the destination.
The concomitant, the in-separation of the consume and the production, meaning the fact that the performance of the service takes place in the same time with the commercialization and the consume. In the case of the shipping transports the service means in fact loading, arranging the goods, making different activities for protecting the goods during the transport, unloading and the transfer of the commercial documents which accompany the goods.
The services can’t be measured in measurement units or counted, as in the case of the products. The use of some technical-economical indicators in order to measure the results of service performance refers in fact to the use of some objects (in our case ships) for their accomplishment, and the relationship with the customers (the charterers) is indispensable. Nowadays, there can be still measured the number of incidents at goods, the losses during the loading, during the transport or the unloading, which can thus be used by the charterers in order to measure and appreciate the performed service.
The proximity of the services, which supposes a certain participation of the customer at the service performance, what in the case of the shipping transports it is obvious through the fact that a charterer can send its representatives on the ship board in order to follow the way of loading, transport and unloading of the goods.
The social characteristic of the services which is given by the relationships between its participant groups or its beneficiary.
The perishability of the services is given by the fact that after their accomplishment they ’’disappear”, they don’t remain as such. Once with the unloading of the goods in the port, the contract and the service are finished, not being able to exist, for example, a postsales ”service”.
The heterogeneity of the services which means that these have a very different characteristic from a case to another, being great differences between two categories of services. This is found especially at the cargoes which transport general goods and which, in a very short time, after unloading some goods, can load totally different goods, which impose other technical solutions for the safe transport.
The variability of the services is determined by their complexity and by the basis factors which can’t repeat identically, from a situation to another.
The lower productivity comparing to the production of goods. This is one of the first problems of the ship owners, nowadays being searched solutions for the increase of this productivity through a series of methods and managerial techniques.
The diversity of the services imposes specific conditions of market for making the prices, different from those of the products. If in the line shipping the price is easy to be established, in that of ”tramp” the situation is different and implies bigger problems for the ship owner.
The big ponderation of the personnel participant to the service performance, which influences the productivity and its quality. Besides the hired personnel at the company headquarters, which is in charge with the search for contracts of freight, with ship supplying, with the safety, with the accountancy, with the human resources, the ship crew, as an unit, has a special role in the service performance.
THE TYPE OF ANALYSE OF THE LIFE CYCLE
Further on, it will be presented the “life cycle” analyze of the performed service by the ship of the oil tanker type “Gulf Glory”. This analyze has on its basis the real situation of this maritime ship, for a period between the year of its launching and a year predicted for the ship withdrawal from the market, having certain correlations with the indicators which refer to the prognosticated volume of the goods and of the benefit which the ship owner wishes to obtain. The shipping company can control the trajectory of the life cycle of the service of the ship, without limiting only to the surveillance of its evolution on the market, as in the cases of the production companies from the inland, so that it could influence its trajectory favorably. Through the permanent report at the “life cycle of the ship” type at its real evolution on the market, the operation and the functioning will be adapted to the requests specific to the phases which are crossed. This supposes a rigorous, detailed, in time training, thus the activities’ programming, the current and capital repairs and the modernization of the equipments, of the installations and of the board systems which can contribute to the prolongation of the life cycle of the ship service. Following the activity of the ship in the period 19952010, with the help of the data from the table no.2 there can be made the graphics which represent the variation of the number of voyages of the ship, the variation of the number of the days of current and capital repairs. The waiting represents: waiting of setting free the berth for loading; unfavorable weather for the operation; dead times between the arrivals of the ships for unloading. In 1997 (Mangalia), 2000 (Piraeus), 2003 and 2006 (Dubai) there were made the capital repairs in the shipyards, with the climbing of the ship on a dry dock, Dubai Shipping (2006).
In figure no.1 it is presented the variation of the number of the voyages of the ship according to: the number of the voyages (Nv) made yearly and the period of 16 years taken into consideration. It is observed the direct correlation between the years in which the repairs were made and the following years, when the number of voyages increases every time comparing to the previous year. In figure no.2 it is presented the variation of the number of the repairs days of the ship according to the number of the repairs days (Nrd) made yearly and the period of 16 years taken into consideration. It is observed the fact that in the years following the years when the capital repairs were made, the number of the repairs days is very small comparing to the previous year. Comparing the two graphics it is observed each trend of being into a direct correlation. It means that the number of voyages is directly connected to the repairs days, so the increases and the decreases are observed on each graphic in those years. Such graphics are important for the company because the evolution on the maritime market implies risks, and the surveillance of the trajectory of the life cycle of the performed service must be permanent and cover the most critical periods.
Figure 1 The variation of the number of the voyages. Source: The author’s study.
Figure 2 The variation of the number of the repairs days.
Source: The author’s study.
In figure no. 3 there are presented the phases of the cycle of the service performed by the ship, for a period between 1981, the year of its launching in the sea and the year 2004, with a prediction of time for a period of activity between 25-30 years. The life cycle of the service can be also influenced by the international legislation, but following its shipping routes and knowing the fact that some states have a certain policy regarding the respect of the international regulations, it is considered that this ship will reach the ”venerable” age of 30 years old through the yearly current and capital repairs at every 3-4 years what it will prolong the service of the oil transport and of its derived products. But, if the company’s management has an offer of transforming this ship into a basis ship or into a deposit of the cistern type, with repairs at the body, structure and installations, without those at the main engine, it can prolong its life cycle as ”a product”, performing through this a service connected to the transport of the oil products, that of a floating deposit.
A series of authors use for the determination of the life cycle of the ship physical indicators, as the number of voyages, the number of days of operation and of stopping, Branch (1998), and the others use valuable indicators: the value of the freight, the selling price of the ship (nominal or on the market), the exploitation costs, etc, Stopford (1997). All these methods are significant for the company’s management, but they must be made by the specialists in economical-financial analyze, by the specialized personnel in financial operations or by the experts-appraisers, otherwise they remain simple information and numbers, without relevance for managers, Iordanoaia (2004).
Figure 3 The phases of the life cycle of the service of the ”Gulf Glory” ship.
Source: The author’s study.
CONCLUSIONS
The analyze of the marketing at a maritime shipping company must become an important component of its management due to the implications and the situations which can be solved. This analyze must be made at least once a year, but it can be made every semester, as well, due to the fluctuations which appear on the maritime market, both regarding the goods and the ships, the transport routes and the legislative limitations. The analyze of the marketing at a shipping company can point out a series of aspects which prove that inside it the management is a modern one, efficient and pointed towards the customers. Strictly from the marketing point of view, there are more aspects to be solved at the maritime shipping companies, there must be taken a series of measures for: the change of the organizational structure for the development of the marketing component, the selection and the employment of some specialists in marketing, perfecting the hired personnel with some marketing attributions. The companies which act in the maritime transport domain don’t approach the marketing in the same way in which the products’ companies do, and in the conditions of a high competition such as that from the complex market of the services of maritime transport, the things get complicated more. Due to the fast changes from the maritime market and with a future that can be uncertain many times, the maritime transport companies were put in the situation to adjust, to change the traditional strategies. The changes from the transport technology domain, the information and the connected branches, and the continual liberalization of the society, the shortness of the life cycle of the maritime ships and the change of the traditional relationships between the producers and the detail ones replaced the tendency of continual expansion, and the registered profits by the companies are bigger than the previous years.
During the years, some shipping companies adopted different strategies of differentiation, through the promotion of their brand associated with a high quality of the offered services, with the latest technology, equipments with a high rate of renewal, as for example the equipments which pass beyond a certain age and/or don’t belong to the qualitative standards anymore, are withdrawn from circulation and sold, professionalism and experience. The successful companies tend to differentiate themselves especially through the elements which present an importance for their customers. Although apparently as in the case of the products, the price makes the difference, in the maritime transport the freight does it, the reality proves that there are taken into account much more aspects among which these which have a relevance in this paper: the oldness of the ships with which it is operated; the degree of technologizing the operations; the condition of the equipments on the board; the capacity of loading, speed, medium consume per nautical mile; the training of the captain, of the crew members and of the personnel inside the company which contribute to the maintenance and to the prolongation of the operational condition of the ship. These will mean for the shipping companies great investments of money and time for the acquisition of the latest technological equipments, capable to tolerate a bigger traffic of information, stocking some basis of data and confidential information, with limited rights for each user partly, organization of some training and perfecting courses for the company employees, these representing a ”key” resource in the prolongation of the life duration of the ship as ”a product”. Making the repairs in time and making the investments for the maintenance in functioning of the quality standards will help at the prolongation of the life cycle of the ship as ”a product” But the prolongation of the life cycle of the service performed by the ship takes part from a context connected to the transported goods, the shipping routes, the hardness of the legislation in this domain or other factors which contribute to the increase or decrease of the quantity, meaning the game of the request and offer from the maritime market.
REFERENCES
BAUCHET, P., Le Transport Maritime, Editura Economica, Paris.
BORONAD, V., DIDIERL AURENT, F.,
LAVORATA, L, MASSABIE-FRANCOIS, M.,
POULAIN, E., Commerce International. Marketing et Négociation. Editura Breal, Rosny Cedex, Paris, 2001.
BRANCH, A.E., Maritime Economics, Management and Marketing, Stanley Thornes Publishers Ltd., London, 1998.
CATOIU, I., BALAN, C., POPESCU, I.C, ORZAN, G., VEGHES, C., DANETIU, T., VRANCEANU, D.,
APPLICATION OF THE J INTEGRAL IN THE STUDY OF THE CRACK LENGTH AND
TEMPERATURE OF A CANNON BARREL
1CALIMANESCU IOAN, 2STAN LIVIU-CONSTANTIN
12Constanta Maritime University, Romania
ABSTRACT
Perhaps the most accurate and elegant method for computing the energy release rate is to calculated the J integral by converting the line integral into a domain integral which can easily be calculated using the known finite element shape functions. The problem illustrates the case of a crack in a cannon barrel, together with the relevant geometry against crack length defined from the bore of the cannon. This crack geometry is the most dangerous integrity case for the cannon barrel. In this research, 155 mm cannon barrel with one crack with lengths of 4 mm, 8 mm and 12 mm on inner surface is firstly structurally analyzed at room temperature, and subsequently coupled thermo-structurally analyzed considering 4 scenarios, where the crack length was deemed to be 4 mm, the temperature of the inner surface was 1000C, 1250C, 1500C, 2000C. The numeric model presented in this paper, provides consistent and reasonable results for the dependency of stress intensity factor to the crack length and temperature of a cannon barrel using the J integral. The temperature fields inside the cannon barrel (and, generalizing, inside any circular structure with thick walls) tends to ameliorate the stress fields existing on the crack tip and pushing the calculated KI downward and thus improving the crack behavior.
Keywords: Cannon barrel, Stress Intensity Factor, Crack, J Integral, Coupled Thermal-Structural FEA
INTRODUCTION
For centuries [6], cannon barrel designers have focused their efforts on the development and use of steels that possess higher strength and toughness. Good mechanical properties are required to withstand the high interior ballistic (explosive) loads to which these pressure ‘vessels’ are subjected. In addition to high internal pressure, the cannon bore (internal surface of the cannon cylinder) is exposed to very high temperatures, as the propellant ignites and begins the evolution of hot gases to provide the propulsive force for the projectile. With the advent of ever more robust propellants, bore surface erosion has become increasingly problematic. This has forced barrel designers to implement various means that include coatings and alternate material liners to combat the phenomena. The desire for longer lasting tubes has been a major motivator for research of new and more robust materials for cannon design. Likewise, cannon barrel manufacturers have committed significant effort to developing processes that result in high quality cannons capable of withstanding these erosive environments.
In the 20th century, variations in the chemistries of Chromium-Molybdenum-Vanadium (Cr-Mo-V) steels have been introduced that allowed for moderate increases in strength, toughness and fatigue properties. Most of these improvements come from superior processing and techniques that produce higher-quality steels (less contaminants and defects). The last major advancement in armament steels occurred in the 1970’s with the introduction of ASTM A723 steel, which has yield strength more than five times that of the steel produced by Rodman more than a century earlier. It replaced the 4335-V modified steel that had been in use since before World War II.
The A723 steel is processed through either vacuum arc re-melt (VAR) or electro-slag re-melts (ESR). Both processes significantly reduce the amount of sulphur and phosphorus and, combined with an increase in the nickel content, make A723 steel an excellent candidate for “modern” armament applications. More recently, the armament community has pushed for materials with even higher strength and toughness due to more aggressive environments and higher cannon firing pressures.
Cannon-wear [18] remains, to this day, one of the main factors limiting cannon’s muzzle velocity and range. It normally occurs as an increase in bore diameter at the commencement of rifling and from here it spreads down the barrel towards the muzzle. As a measure of wear it is conventional to quote the increase in bore diameter measured at 25 mm from the commencement of rifling. The increase in diameter that can be tolerated before a barrel is condemned depends on the accuracy that is required. For tank cannons, which need to be very accurate in order to hit a target at the first attempt, the permissible wear is about 0.5-1% of the bore diameter. As a rule the cannon designer arranges for the fatigue life of a barrel to exceed its wear life because fatigue failure is usually catastrophic and endangers the cannon crew, whereas barrel wear simply reduces the accuracy of the projectile without putting the crew in danger.
Typically, the bore temperature reaches 600- 12000C at this place within a few milliseconds of exposure to the hot propellant gases. Heat transfer may be 500MW/m2, and the propellant gas pressure may reach 600MPa. Wear has always been related to the intense thermal conditions experienced at this point and as early as 1911, Jones [8] derived an empirical equation based on this assumption. Other early work of note includes Shulyer [21] and Kent [9]. Thornhill’s work
is particularly interesting in that he looked for a linear correlation between wear per round and the maximum temperature at the bore, and many of the ideas he originated have found application here.
Fig. 1 (top) shows the unworn section of rifled cannon that may be compared to the eroded section at the commencement of rifling of the same cannon (middle). This is normal wear.
The bore diameter increases uniformly around the barrel at the commencement of rifling and spreads along the barrel towards the muzzle. Occasionally, oval wear occurs, that is, wear is perhaps 20% greater in the vertical plane than in the horizontal plane. This type of wear occurs at temperatures between 900 and 1400 K, which is well below the melting point of cannon steel. Gas wash past a faulty driving band can cause local melt erosion (Fig. 1 (bottom)), and such erosion is many times faster than normal erosion.
Figure 1 Cannon barrel erosion
A photomicrograph showing the sub-surface of cannon steel, after firing 10 rounds, is shown in Fig. 2. Three layers are apparent, marked A, B and C. The layer marked A is the original structure. The layer marked B extends perhaps 200 pm from the surface and is called the heat-affected zone. In this region, the cannon steel had been subjected to a large temperature fluctuation each time the cannon was fired. The temperature fluctuation may be 10000C at the surface but 1mm from the surface it is only about 1000C, and the period of the fluctuation may be 5-50 ms. The microstructure of the heat-affected zone changes towards the surface and the steel becomes harder and more brittle. The layer marked C is called the chemically-affected zone. At high temperatures, chemical species from the propellant gas diffuse into the crystal lattice altering its chemical composition. These species include the main products of propellant combustion (CO, CO2, H2, H2O and N2) and a small quantity of dissociated atomic species. This further reduces the strength and increases the brittleness of the surface layers. Hardness increases from about 250 HV in region A, to 500 HV in region B, and 1000 HV in region C. Micro-cracks form in region C, some normal to the surface and some parallel with the surface. The shear stress caused by high velocity gas flow, and the contact stress generated by the driving band, are sufficient to remove a portion of the cracked and brittle layer. The amount of wear depends on the depth to which the chemically-affected zone has penetrated which, in turn, depends on the chemical composition of the propellant and on the bore surface temperature.
A single crack [24] 30 mm or deeper which is 75 mm long is sufficient to fracture a typical 155 mm cannon barrel with a pressure at or above two-thirds (206 MPa) of the maximum operating pressure (310 MPa). Longer and deeper flaws reduce the critical pressure required to initiate fracture. For the monolithic barrel design the postulated 30 mm deep by 75 mm long crack should propagate through the entire wall and, depending upon the new “fractured” geometry, may propagate axially down the cannon barrel.
Figure 2 Photomicrograph showing the sub-surface of cannon steel
Numerical analyses conducted [24] with straight through-thickness crack fronts propagated axially at pressures below the maximum operating pressure while those with curved crack fronts required pressures in excess of the working pressures to extend axially. In either case, a through-thickness “hole” will be formed in the barrel’s side and a reduction in firing pressure should result. Finally, debris deposited within the barrel can greatly assist the fracture process, especially at lower operating pressures.
SOME THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS
For a crack under tensile, or Mode-I loading for linear-elastic materials:
J=¡a [K^q), j ~(Wq ),1 ~}d=
= ¡a [(ke a + KM, j )—[WA + W%1 fd
Ki, j = 0
K2
G = J = -*- ^ K E ' 1
Plain — Strain where G is Energy Release Rate, E is Young modulus and u is Poisson constant, Ki is the stress intensity factor, J is the J integral.
Perhaps the most accurate and elegant method for computing the energy release rate is to calculated the J integral by converting the line integral into a domain integral which can easily be calculated using the known finite element shape functions.
Consider the closed contour C with outward unit normal vector m as shown in figure 3:
Figure 3 Contours for derivation of domain integral calculation of J integral
(4)
Typically the function q is expressed using the same shape functions that interpolate displacement, i.e.
n
q=X Niqi where Ni are the shape functions, qi are
i=1
the nodal values of q at nodes i = 1, n.
Thus J may be calculated as an area integral over any annular region surrounding the crack tip.
NUMERICAL INVESTIGATION 3.1 Problem definition
The problem illustrates the case of a crack in a cannon barrel, together with the relevant geometry against crack length defined from the bore of the cannon. This crack geometry is the most dangerous integrity case for the cannon barrel. The stress intensity calibration includes both hoop stress and internal pressure contributions. The barrel of the FEA modeled cannon has an inner radius of 85 mm and an outer radius of 160 mm, and it operates at a firing pressure of 380 MPa. It is made from 4340 grade steel with yield strength of 1.131 GPa, a tensile strength of 1.232 GPa and a plane strain
fracture toughness value of 125.8 MPa^fm In this research, 155 mm cannon barrel with one crack with lengths of 4 mm, 8 mm and 12 mm on inner surface is analyzed. Half of the cross section of the cracked cannon pipe is shown in Figure 4.
For the thermal influence of the barrel temperature there were considered 4 scenarios, where the crack length was deemed to be 4 mm, the temperature of the inner surface was 1000C, 1250C, 1500C, 2000C, the thermal conductivity of the steel 60.5 W/m0C, thermal expansion coefficient 1.2 e-5 0C-1 and the stagnant air convection coefficient at 200C around the barrel was considered 5 W/m2 0C.
3.2 Finite Elements Model
For the first half of the problem, a structural analysis was conducted in the view of determining the stress and strain fields at the tip of the crack on a 2D model using the software ANSYS. In the figure 5 is given the FEA model comprising 3316 Plane 82 type of element with the crack tip surrounded by quarter-point elements collapsed in order to catch the details of the stress-strain fields, as follows:
Figure 5 FEA Model and crack tip area
Environment, where the thermal effects will be applied. Although the geometry must remain constant, the element types can change. For instance, thermal elements are required for a thermal analysis while structural elements are required to determine the stress. It is important to note, however that only certain combinations of elements can be used for a coupled physics analysis. The process requires the user to create all the necessary environments, which are basically the pre-processing portions for each environment, and write them to memory. Then in the solution phase they can be combined to solve the coupled analysis.
Therefore, for the Physical thermal environment, it will be used the same FEA spatial net of 3316 elements but with Plane 77 elements type instead, and after processing the thermal module we will migrate to the Structural Physical environment with Plane 82 elements and importing the thermal solutions we will process the structural problem having included the thermal effects.
3.3 The study of the dependency of K to the crack length
As mentioned above, 3 scenarios were simulated in 2D, with cracks of 4 mm, 8 mm and 12 mm on the inner surface in linear-elastic fracture analysis hypothesis. The frontier conditions imposed to the model were the symmetry displacement condition to the lines bordering the half of the analyzed model (see Fig.5) and on all the inner lines including the crack faces the 380 MPa pressure was imposed.
Below there will be presented the results in the crack tip area, for 4 mm crack length, for the rest a graph will be raised.
Figure 6 Von Mises stress field at the crack tip for 4 mm crack length
As it can be seen in the figures above, the maximum stress-strain field is located at the crack tip having a value of 2.98e10 Pa (the stress) and 0.188 (the strain).
1.00E+11
8.00E+10 6.00E+10
rf
4.00E+10 2.00E+10 Q.00E+00
As it can be seen above, the stress-strain fields on the crack tip are increasing almost linearly with the progress of the crack. All the stresses are in any case bigger than the yield strength of 0.1131 e10 Pa.
The next step was to calculate the J-Integral around the tip of the cracks and the following graph was raised:
Figure 10 J integral at the crack tip for 4 mm, 8 mm and 12 mm crack length
After calculating KI with the relation (1) the graph in figure 11 was raised showing the both ./-Integral (Fig. 10) and the stress intensity factors are increasing with the crack length, firstly sloped until 8 mm crack length and mildly after.
First remark should be that for 4 mm crack length
Kj = 135.7MPaJm > K1C = \25MPaJm which
may lead to the conclusion that the crack is instable and will tend to grow.
The second remark is that by comparing this result with [19] result for almost identical crack conditions in terms of length, material and pressure, which calculated
Kj = \32.35MPa4m using the same FEA approach.
We may pull the conclusion of an excellent correlation (and validation in both ways) of the results.
3.4 The study of the dependency of KI to the temperature for the 4 mm crack length
As specified above, a new series of numerical simulations were conducted for 1000C, 1250C, 1500C, 2000C inside the cannon barrel, in order to study the impact over the calculated K1.
The calculated temperature fields for the 1000C are given below:
Figure 12 Temperature fields for 3730K
From figure 12 one may notice (important for the conclusions chapter) that a variable temperature field is installed inside the 37 mm thick wall of the barrel.
On the other hand in figure 13 is shown the variation of von Mises stress field at the crack tip with the temperature, with the observation that the maximum values are decreasing.
Figure 14 K variation function to barrel temperature for 4 mm crack length
After calculating KI with the relation (1), the graph in the figure 14 was raised showing the tendency of decreasing and going under the
KIC = \25MPa4m threshold somewhere at 800C temperature.
CONCLUSIONS
The numerical model presented in this paper, provides consistent and reasonable results for the dependency of stress intensity factor to the crack length and temperature of a cannon barrel using the J integral. The results as calculated are in excellent correlation with the results, calculated and experimental, coming from [19, 24] and needs no further validation by experiment.
The temperature fields inside the cannon barrel (and, generalizing, inside any circular structure with thick walls) tends to ameliorate the stress fields existing on the crack tip and pushing the calculated KI downward and thus improving the crack behavior. The explanation for this phenomenon is that due to differential thermal dilatation on the highest temperature zone of the barrel, namely the inside zone, the sides of the crack will be pushed one against the other giving birth to an ‘thermal crack closing’ effect, specific to such cylindrical and thick walled structures.
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. Brosseau T.L., Ward J.R, J. Heat Transfer Trans. ASME 97, 610-614, 1975.
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. Montgomery R. S., Wear 33, 359-368, 1975.
. Shulyer G.L., Bur., Ordonance Memo S72-4/11/77, December 1928.
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. Tranter C.J., in: F.R.W. Hunt (Ed.), Internal Ballistics, HMSO, London, 1951, pp. 8-22.
. Zywicz-Lawrence E., Livermore National Laboratory- UCRL-ID- 1 2 3844, Fracture Assessment of a 155mm Cannon Barrel, Oct.1993.
. Ward J.R., Brosseau T.L., Wear 60, 149-155, 1980.
FINDING OPTIMAL HYPERSONIC MISSILE SHAPE BASED ON FINITE ELEMENT
ANALYSIS ADVANCED TECHNIQUE
1CALIMANESCU IOAN, 2STAN LIVIU-CONSTANTIN
I,2Constanta Maritime University, Romania
ABSTRACT
Applied aerodynamics has, historically, involved a very strong mix of theory and experiment. This is partly because experiments can be very costly and computations are rarely sufficiently sophisticated. This will continue to be the case. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is playing an ever increasing role in aerodynamic design for advanced missiles either for performance improvement of the existing system for new missions or for new concept development for future missions. A cost effective design process is to judiciously combine the wind tunnel tests and CFD studies that exploit the inherent strengths of each of these. Hypersonic missile flight is characterized by a high flight Mach number (usually greater than 5), thin shock layers and high viscous loads. The missile aerodynamic geometry has high impact on different missile systems such as control, propulsion, structure, and warhead. The objective of the current paper is to present a reliable Finite Element Analysis/CFD and Fluid Structure Interaction (FSI) advanced technique for obtaining hypersonic missile aerodynamics and use this technique for finding optimal hypersonic missile shape based on best structural behavior (the lowest von Mises stress will play the role of Objective Variable), and, secondly, based on the best aerodynamic behavior (the highest V® fluid velocity will play the role of Objective Variable).
Keywords: Fluid Solid Interaction, Optimisation, Hypersonic Missile, Shape, Structure, Metal Matrix Composite, CFD, FEA
INTRODUCTION
Applied aerodynamics has, historically, involved a very strong mix of theory and experiment. This is partly because experiments can be very costly and computations are rarely sufficiently sophisticated. This will continue to be the case. A recent, very simple, wind tunnel model with a few control surfaces but no pressure measurements, cost $200,000 to build. That would buy a fair amount of computer time. It also took several months for the model to be delivered. There is great motivation to use computational methods when possible and the numeric shape and structure Optimisation is by far the sole conceivable and reasonable approach, at least for these days.
On the other hand, the missile geometry is quite complicated and one may be interested in the behavior of a leading edge vortex, the onset of flow separation, flow of the boundary layer. Such features require solution of the complex Navier-Stokes equations. Even the NS code which can predict wing-alone characteristics takes weeks before one can get a converged solution.
Perhaps the ideal method of predicting the aerodynamics of a vehicle is flight test in real conditions. There are several reasons why this is not always the ideal method of aerodynamic testing. The cost involved in building and changing full scale designs and making repeated flights is extremely high; the instrumentation is generally not as good as ground-based instrumentation; the atmosphere is not static and it does not take much convective activity in the atmosphere to introduce significant errors in the results
Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is playing an ever increasing role in aerodynamic design for advanced flight vehicles either for performance improvement of the existing system for a new missions or for new concept development for future missions. A cost effective design process is to judiciously combine the wind tunnel tests and CFD studies that exploit the inherent strengths of each of these.
Hypersonic missile flight is characterized by a high flight Mach number (usually greater than 5), thin shock layers and high viscous loads.
The missile aerodynamic geometry has high impact on different missile systems such as control, propulsion, structure, and warhead.
But in order to select between many possible candidates to be designed/tested/computed, an optimization study must be conducted, and this may be done only using dedicated software and a big computing power. Missile aerodynamicists aim to find the optimal external aerodynamic configuration. Missiles have to travel at varying speeds. The optimal aerodynamic configuration has to work efficiently at these variable speeds. The optimization process requires many iterations which makes computationally expensive CFD models unappealing to be used in such calculations. In the existing bibliography, a fast and reliable method such as build-up components method is used to predict performance for hypersonic missiles quickly and reliably [7] [3] and [6]. Keshavarz [13] presented formulations for different multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) and two MDO formulations are applied to a sounding missile in order to optimize the performance. Three disciplines have been considered, trajectory, propulsion and aerodynamics.
Sooy and Schmidt [15] presented a study on aerodynamic predictions, comparisons and validations using Missile Datcom (97) and Aero-prediction 98 (AP98) numerical prediction codes. They evaluated the accuracy of each code compared to experimental wind tunnel data for a variety of missile configurations and flight conditions. The missile configurations included axisymmetric body, body wing tail and body tail.
Hypersonic missile technologies, in paste decades, have been developed to include enhanced flight performance, reduced weight, increased Mach’s number reduced costs, higher reliability, and reduced observables. Their increased performance depends on various parameters which affect the flight performance, their trade-off in the context of aerodynamic shape optimization being of paramount importance (Fig. 1).
New missile airframe materials technologies have arisen lately. These are hypersonic special dedicated structural materials as composite structure materials, hypersonic insulation materials, multi-spectral domes and so on.
Composite materials are a new technology that will find increased use in new missile airframe structure. High temperature composites have particular benefits for hypersonic missiles, providing weight reduction. Titanium alloy technology also enables lighter weight missiles in a hypersonic, high temperature flight environment.
Figure 1 Parameters that Drive Missile Flight Performance
At subsonic and low supersonic Mach’s number, graphite epoxy and aluminium or aluminium alloys are attractive choices for lighter weight structure. Graphite epoxy and aluminium alloys have high strength to weight ratio, are easily fabricated, have a good corrosion resistance, and are low in cost.
For higher Mach’s numbers, graphite polyimide composite structure has an advantage of high structure efficiency at higher temperature for short duration flight Mach’s numbers to about Mach 4.
For flight at about Mach 4.5, without external insulation, the titanium structure and its alloys are preferred. A disadvantage of a titanium structure is higher material and machining cost. However, the cost to cast a part made of titanium is comparable to the cost to cast an aluminium part.
At Mach 5, although it is heavier, a steel structure would probably be used. Up to Mach 5.7 without external insulation, at about 1093 degrees Celsius, super nickel alloys such as Inconel, Hastelloy may be used. Above Mach 5.7 the super alloys require either external insulations or active cooling.
The Mach’s number and temperature application relationships are somehow dependent upon the temperature recovery factor.
At stagnation region, such as the nose or leading edges, the recovery factor is about 1, resulting in the highest stagnation temperature. A turbulent or laminar boundary layer downstream of the nose or leading edge will have temperature recovery factors of about 0.9 and 0.8 respectively, with local temperatures less than stagnation.
The objective of the current paper is to present a reliable Finite Element Analysis and Fluid Structure Interaction (FSI) advanced technique for obtaining hypersonic missile aerodynamics and use this technique for finding optimal hypersonic high technology missile shape based on best structural behavior (the lowest von Mises stress will play the role of Objective Variable), and, secondly, based on the best aerodynamic behavior (the highest V» fluid velocity will play the role of Objective Variable). In achieving these goals state of the art software was involved: Ansys 9 and all its facilities.
THE MISSILE BODY STRUCTURE MATERIALS
The strength to weight capability of advanced composites is very high. For example, as shown in Figure 2, the unidirectional tensile strength of a small diameter graphite (carbon) fiber is more than 400000 PSI (2.757903e+009 Pa). In addition to small diameter fibers, advanced composite structures have long, continuous fibers and a fiber/matrix ratio that is greater than 50% fibers by volume.
Figure 2 Materials Used in Missile Technology [1]
Fibers can be: carbon (graphite), kevlar, boron, ceramic, silicon carbide quartz, glass, polyethylene and others.
As an example of strength at the structure level, 50% of the volume of the graphite composite structure can have strength in a tailored laminate which is above 1.378e9 Pa, much greater than that of aluminium or even steel.
Also the low density of composites further reduces the weight compared to metals. Graphite fiber composite materials have extremely high modulus of elasticity resulting in low strain and deflection compared to metals.
However, a note of caution, unlike metals that generally yield before ultimate failure, composite fibers generally fail suddenly without yield.
For short duration temperatures up to 2040 Celsius, graphite epoxy is a good candidate material based on its
characteristics of high strength and low density. Graphite polymide can be used at even higher temperatures, up to 5930 Celsius, short duration temperature. Over 5930 Celsius titanium and steel are the best materials based on strength to weight ratio. An area of enabling capability hypersonic precision of striking missiles is short duration insulation technology. Because hypersonic precision of striking missiles has stringent volume and weight constraints, higher density, external airframe and internal insulation, materials are in development. Higher density insulation materials permit more fuel resulting in longer range.
Thermal insulators are used to provide short duration protection for structural materials from either the aerodynamic heating of a hypersonic free stream or from propulsion heating of the combustion chamber and exhaust gases of the nozzle.
Ceramic refractory materials and graphite materials are also candidate insulators for high speed airframes, engines and motor cases.
Although ceramic refractory materials and graphite have high temperature capability, the insulation efficiency for a given weight of a material is not as good as that of plastic composite materials.
At high temperature, the resin melts providing cooling for the structure. Example of bulk ceramics are zirconium ceramic and hafnium ceramic. Bulk ceramics are capable of withstanding height temperatures but like porous ceramics they have relatively poor insulation efficiency.
Finally, graphite insulators provide the highest temperature capability. However, graphite has relatively poor insulation efficiency.
A good combination of materials for hypersonic missiles seems to be the Metal Matrix Composite (MMC) for the nose and fins and Inconel X-750 for the rest of the body.
The Nose and Fins Metal Matrix Composite Structure
A metal matrix composite (MMC) is a composite material with at least two constituent parts, one being a metal. The nose and the fins of the considered missile are made out of MMC. The other material may be a different metal or another material, such as a ceramic or organic compound. When at least three materials are present, it is called a hybrid composite
MMCs are made by dispersing a reinforcing material into a metal matrix. The reinforcement surface can be coated to prevent a chemical reaction with the matrix. For example, carbon fibers are commonly used in aluminium matrix to synthesize composites showing low density and high strength. However, carbon reacts with aluminium to generate a brittle and water-soluble compound Al4C3 on the surface of the fiber. To prevent this reaction, the carbon fibers are coated with nickel or titanium boride.
The matrix is the monolithic material into which the reinforcement is embedded, and is completely continuous. This means that there is a path through the matrix to any point in the material, unlike two materials sandwiched together. In structural applications, thematrix is usually a lighter metal such as aluminium, magnesium, or titanium, and provides a compliant support for the reinforcement. In high temperature applications, cobalt and cobalt-nickel alloy matrices are common.
The reinforcement material is embedded into the matrix. The reinforcement does not always serve a purely structural task (reinforcing the compound), but is also used to change physical properties such as wear resistance, friction coefficient, or thermal conductivity. The reinforcement can be either continuous, or discontinuous. Discontinuous MMCs can be isotropic, and can be worked with standard metalworking techniques, such as extrusion, forging or rolling. In addition, they may be machined using conventional techniques, but commonly would need the use of polycrystalline diamond tooling (PCD).
In the modelled application was considered the following MMC:
Matrix : Titanium (Ti); Young’s Modulus = 110 GPa ; Poisson’s Ratio = 0.25 ; Yield Stress = 300 MPa
Reinforcements: Silicon Carbide (SiC) ;
Young’s Modulus = 410 GPa ; Poisson’s Ratio = 0.17
Design Parameters: Fibers’: Aspect Ratio (AR=50); Volume Fraction (VF=8% or 12%); Orientation (8 layers symmetric ^=0°; 90°; 45°; -45° and symmetric); Basic layer thickness=0.00025 m for the initial model.
The Orthotropic Elastic Material model used in FEA has the main mechanical characteristics as following:
The Missile Body Inconel Structure
Inconel alloys are oxidation and corrosion resistant materials well suited for service in extreme environments. The body of the considered missile is made out of Inconel X-75. When heated, Inconel forms a thick, stable, passivating oxide layer protecting the surface from further attack. Inconel retains strength over a wide temperature range, attractive for high temperature applications where aluminium and steel would succumb to creep as a result of thermally-induced crystal vacancies. Inconel's high temperature strength is developed by solid solution strengthening or precipitation strengthening, depending on the alloy. In age hardening or precipitation strengthening varieties, small amounts of niobium combine with nickel to form the intermetallic compound Ni3Nb or gamma prime (y'). Gamma prime forms small cubic crystals that inhibit slip and creep effectively at elevated temperatures. Inconel is a difficult metal to shape and machine using traditional techniques due to rapid work hardening. After the first machining pass, work hardening tends to elastically deform either the work piece or the tool on subsequent passes. For this reason, age-hardened Inconels such as 718 are machined using an aggressive but slow cut with
a hard tool, minimizing the number of passes required. Alternatively, the majority of the machining can be performed with the work piece in a solvable form, with only the final steps being performed after age-hardening. External threads are machined using a lathe to "single point" the threads, or by rolling the threads using a screw machine. Holes with internal threads are made by welding or brazing threaded inserts made of stainless steel. Internal threads can also be cut by single point method on lathe, or by thread milling on machining center. New whisker reinforced ceramic cutters are also used to machine nickel alloys. They remove material at a rate typically 8X faster than carbide cutters.
In our FEA model the body material was considered isotropic elastic Inconel X-750.
Alloy X-750 is a precipitation-hardenable alloy which has been used in applications such as high temperature structural members for gas turbines, jet engine parts, nuclear power plant applications, heattreating fixtures, forming tools, and extrusion dies. The alloy is highly resistant to chemical corrosion and oxidation and has high stress-rupture strength and low creep rates under high stresses at temperatures up to 1500°F (816°C) after suitable heat treatment.
Alloy X-750 work hardens quickly and is more difficult to machine than most standard ferritic and martensitic alloys. The alloy is most easily machined in the stress-equalized condition.
Because specific cutting forces are high, the machine tools used must have ample power and the cutting speed should be slow. The tools must have smooth finishes, be sharp, and be very rigid. To avoid work hardening, a continuous, smooth cutting action should be maintained; thus, the machines must have a minimum of backlash and the tool and work-piece must be rigidly supported. If at all possible, avoid very small cuts and feeds.
NUMERICAL INVESTIGATION
3.1 CAD Geometry and FEA mesh
The declared goal of generating CAD geometry and FEA mesh is to save as much of computing power we can, due to the high complexity of the simulation. Eventhe optimization using Sub problem method was selected taking into account the same goal, this method being less expensive in terms of the number of iterations needed to obtain the convergence.
The missile was considered a double symmetric body and the fluid domain and the solid one as well, was deemed to generate acceptable results even if was considered only % of both domains and imposing proper symmetry boundary conditions. The CAD geometry is given in the figure below:
Figure 3 CAD geometry of the fluid and solid domains
Figure 4 FEA mesh and boundary conditions
In the figure 4 they are visible the symmetry planes, the inlet region of the fluid where the velocity which was imposed being 1000 m/sec, the outlet region for the fluid opposed to the inlet region where the pressure was imposed being slightly under atmospheric at sea level (91,500 Pa (a)) and the walls where all the components of velocity were set to zero (this wall conditions are mimicking the testing wind tunnel walls). The fluid and structural meshes were deliberately refined in the FSI contact region for surprising in more detail the phenomena which may occur in this region. The fluid is considered Air with its standard parameters in SI.
We used Fluid142 element to model our transient fluid system involving both fluid and solid regions. The conservation equations for viscous fluid flow and energy are solved in the fluid region, while only the energy equation is solved in the non-fluid region. For this kind of elements, the velocities are obtained from the conservation of momentum principle, and the pressure is obtained from the conservation of mass principle. A segregated sequential solver algorithm is used; that is, the matrix system derived from the finite element digitization of the governing equation for each degree of
freedom is solved separately. The flow problem is nonlinear and the governing equations are coupled together.
On the other hand for the solid domain we used the Shell 181 type of element due to the fact it can model the multilayered composite orthotropic elastic materials as MMC for missile nose and fins, and also the isotropic elastic materials as Inconell X-750 for the cylindrical body of the missile.
Shell 181 element type is suitable for analyzing thin to moderately-thick shell structures. It is a 4-node element with six degrees of freedom at each node: translations in the x, y, and z directions, and rotations about the x, y, and z-axes. Shell 181 is well-suited for linear, large rotation, and/or large strain nonlinear applications. Change in shell thickness is accounted for in nonlinear analyses. In the element domain, both full and reduced integration schemes are supported. Shell 181 accounts for follower (load stiffness) effects of distributed pressures. It may be used for layered applications for modelling laminated composite shells or sandwich construction. The accuracy in modelling composite shells is governed by the first order shear deformation theory (usually referred to as Mindlin- Reissner shell theory).
Since the main problem is the FSI, the fluid-solid interaction solver was selected in simulation, it successfully solving the equations for the fluid and solid domains independently of each other. It transfers fluid forces and heat fluxes and solid displacements, velocities, and temperatures across the fluid-solid interface. The algorithm continues to loop through the solid and fluid analyses until convergence is reached for that time step (or until the maximum number of stagger iterations is reached). Convergence in the stagger loop is based on the quantities being transferred at the fluidsolid interface. In order to function properly, a FSI interface was established between the elements of fluidsolid domains.
Optimization Scenario 1
The Optimisation Scenario no.1 is representing the Structural Engineer point of view, which always will search for that structural arrangement which is providing the lower stress condition inside the structure for a given geometry/aerodynamic design/state variables.
In this scenario, the maximum achievable von Mises equivalent stress is 51e6Pa, value almost three times lower than the initial model which was 162e6 Pa.
The “cost” for this achievement is not so big: the missile velocity slightly increased but the fins height were decreased, the distance between first set of fins and the missile nose was increased with almost 0.13 m and the distance between fins sets was shortened, the Inconel body thickness and the MMC fins-nose layer thickness seems to decrease (which is good in decreasing the overall weight of the missile). This seems to be a good solution but only for supersonic missiles, travelling with Mach number 3.5-4, which may not please the Aerodynamics Design Engineer which is in search of hypersonic missile structure solutions.
L22 Design variable is the height of Fins set no.2, at the rear end of the missile. By studying the given graphs (Fig.5, 6, 7), the overall conclusion is: the bigger, the worst. The fluid velocity, the stress condition and the required thickness of missile walls are increasing with the increasing of this parameter.
Figure 5 L22 Design variable impact over maximum fluid velocity
Figure 6 L22 Design variable impact over maximum structure thickness
Figure 7 L22 Design variable impact over maximum von Mises stress
L31 which is the distance between the two sets of fins, determine an local minimum for the von Mises stress for a value of 0.93355 m, and the worst impact should be registered for values from the middle of variation interval (see Fig.8, 9, 10).
L23 which is the height of missile fins set 1, has an ambiguous influence over the maximum stress condition. Since the maximum stress condition is computed in the rear end zone, this parameter will therefore express the influence of first set of fins over the aerodynamic conditions existing at the end of the missile (Fig.11, 12, 13). For two values: 0.358m and 0.448 m, the stress
For more details, the bellow figures are given after FSI simulation of the optimal design in Scenario 1 perspective.
Figure 14 Pressure distribution for Optimal-Scenario 1
The pressure distribution exerted by fluid on the missile structure is similar to that of the initial model. The nose, the attack edge of the fins and the rear portion of the missile are to be subjected to the biggest pressure, 594e3Pa.
On the figure above is presented the fluid velocity distribution around the optimum model for Scenario 1. The maximum achievable velocity inside the fluid domain is 1228 m/sec, slightly bigger that the one computed for the initial model.
The Mach number distribution inside the fluid domain, as expected, is closely following the distribution of fluid velocities, reaching a maximum of 3.7 in the very front of the missile
Figure 16 Mach number distribution for Optimal- Scenario 1
Figure 17 Fluid density distribution for Optimal- Scenario 1
The fluid density distribution is somehow similar to the pressure distribution.
The fluid turbulent energy dissipation zones are highlighting that zones which are characterized by intense turbulent regimes, as in the rear edges of fins and missile.
The maximum strain of course will occur where the maximum fluid pressure is developing, namely on the missile fins and rear portion. The maximum strain will be 0.04% on the Inconel rear back of missile, much smaller than the one computed for the initial model (Fig. 19).
The von Mises equivalent stresses distribution will closely follow the one of strain distribution, being computed a maximum of 54e6 Pa in the rear region of the missile (Fig.20).
Figure 19 Von Mises equivalent strain distribution for Optimal-Scenario 1
Figure 20 Von Mises equivalent stress distribution for Optimal-Scenario 1
CONCLUSIONS
The numeric model presented in this paper, provides consistent and reasonable results for missiles structural-aerodynamic analysis and optimization. Its results are comparable with other approaches but the optimization must be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, meaning that what is good for a certain missile structure may very well be not applicable for another. Furthermore, even the optimization is thought to minimize or diminish the designer flair in decisions making, apparently in every step of this process the designer ought to have decisive interventions. Optimization is just a tool and should be used as it is: a tool.
The results obtained from the optimization numeric simulation, may be used to define a certain structure- shape of a missile prior any attempt to in depth analyzing and testing it, this shortening the needed time for design and testing programs.
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