Anuarul Inst. de Cercet. Socio-Umane C.S. Nicol ăescu-Plop șor, vol. XVI, 2015, pp. 101110 CONTRIBUTE FACTORS TO THE ROMANIAN [615973]

Anuarul Inst. de Cercet. Socio-Umane „C.S. Nicol ăescu-Plop șor”, vol. XVI, 2015, pp. 101–110 CONTRIBUTE FACTORS TO THE ROMANIAN
DEMOGRAPHIC BODY
Gabriel PRICIN Ă∗
Gabriela MOTOI∗∗
Abstract: This article includes a statistical analysis of the main Romanian
demographic phenomena. The numerous red flags drawn by the scientists,
reverberated in the media, refers to the demographic decline, accentuated by the
visible populations aging trend. The main concern of many working age individuals
are due to the most probable consequences: future challenges of the social security
pensions system resulted out of the reve rsal age pyramid. The aging population will
become more numerous than the worki ng age population, those who pay social
insurance will be less numerous than t hose entitled to receive pensions.
This analysis is de stinated for a statistical analys is of the relationship between
the demographic phenomena, in an attempt to discover the specific relationships. This
paper’s conclusions may be relevant for th e development of a coherent demographic
policy based on measurable goals.

Keywords: demography, population, correla tions, demographic phenomenon,
demographic process.
1. A POPULATION’S RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
The scientific knowledge and the theorising ability of the researchers have in
the most cases, applicability in various areas of the social and the economic life. In
the context of this article we try to subo rdinate to the social needs, a demographic
phenomenon analysis that is designed to concern those assigned to develop and
implement public policies regarding the Romanian demographic balance.
The starting point of such a process or iginates in the declared objectives of
the demography1: the size knowledge, population’s structure and distribution,
description of the total or regional popula tion’s evolution, identifying the links

∗ Lecturer, PhD, University of Craiova, Faculty of Law and Social Sciences, Sociology
Specialization; Email: [anonimizat]
∗∗ Lecturer, PhD, University of Craiova, Faculty of Law and Social Sciences, Sociology
Specialization; Email: [anonimizat]
1 Rajendra Sharma, Demography and Population Problems , New Dehli, Atlantic Publishers
and Distributors, 2007, p. 9.

Gabriel Pricin ă, Gabriela Motoi 102
between the population trends and a certain indicator and the accurate estimations
of the population’s trend and their consequences.
The finality of this research is useful in various fields of social life, in the
development of some public policies or even in the development of some
feasibility studies or marketing2: healt investment planning, food production and
supply planning, workforce planning, education’s infrastructure planning, housing
planning and elaboration of some public migration control policy.
In the persent research we focus on the main phenomena that directly
influence the demographic body: mortality and natality. The purpose of this research is to detect the factors that determine the current structure of the Romanian demographic body and predictions of the future to identify the main
elements that can stand a base on the balance of the demographic policy.
2. NATALITY AND MORTALITY
Natality refers to the number of the newborns in a society in a certain time.
This phenomenon occurs under the influence of some complex factors that can be
grouped in two broad categories: on the one hand we have the size population,
related to the reproductive biological capacity, as the weight of the female
population at childbearing age. The age period of childbearing adopted in scientific research is placent on the range of 15-49 y ears in the female population. A second
category of factors that influence the natality is more complex, such as the cultural
or socio-economic framework. In the second category we have to remember
another demographic indicat or: fecundity, representing “a woman’s physiological
ability to procreate”
3. Thus, fertility is a consequence of fecundity, subjected to
numerous factors.
From a scientific persepective we s ee that natality occurs depending on the
share of childbearing women age and the economic context, socialy and culturally
existing in society.
Mortality is the mass of deaths in a society or a geographic region. The
scientific literature reveals the specific nature of this phenomenon: all the
demographic phenomena occur under the infl uence of the factors which determine
their associates, while death is the only phenomenon that it relates directly to each
individuals. For example, the emerge of a new born does not concern him, but his
parents4. All the other demographic phenomena, such as marriage, migration,
divorce are influenced by a multitude of factors that place them under the probability theory.

2 Ibidem , pp. 9-10.
3 Ibidem , p. 20.
4 Traian Rotariu, Demografie și socologia popula ției, fenomene demografice , Iași, Polirom
Publishing, 2003, p. 53.

Contribute Factors to the Romanian Demographic Body 103
Mortality’s characteristics are as follows5: every individual is at the risk of
death, is an unavoidable phenomenon that will surely occur in the life of every
individual, it concer ns only one person, it is unrepeat able and the least influenced
by the other demographic phenomena.
Considering the specificity of mortality we note that in addition to the limited
capacity of the biological being existence there are clearer factors that determine
it6: hunger and food shortages, epidemic s, wars and poor sanitary conditions.
Mortality becomes the demographic phenomenon that can only be delayed
but not avoided. The actual societies evolution and the medical science have enabled
a permanent increasing lifespan by limiti ng the influencing mortality factors.
Statistica, surveys conducted over ti me reveal some regularities people’s
lifespan depending on some certain factors7: the residence, were we fiind that
mortality is lower in urban areas; profession, explained by the fact that a certain profession affects the health of those who practice them; region, due to the differences in the individuals lifespan; parent education, observing that in the educated parents household the children are much healthier and have a longer lifespan than those from families with low le vels of education; the marital status,
married people tend to have a longer life than the unmarried; the socio-economic
status; finding that people with a higher socioeconomic status had a higher life
expectancy than others. In some societies it was found that religion has an influence, statistically proven, over its life.
3. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE MAIN DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS
The statistical method allows the iden tification of some trends and the
relationships between the different de mographic processes. Statistical data
processing permit the interpretation of th e raw data acording to the specific
objectives. Also, the statisticaly monito ring has the merit to signal early
thenegative consequences of the status quo.
The adopted measurement efficiency can be measured by comparing the
available date at one time with those es timated to be produced when developing a
public policy. Using the statistical measur ement methods can bring corrections to
the insuffcient trends orinted to the und esirable objectives or to those that have
negative consequences over the society.
In the past period from the Romanian Revolution from 1989, Romania’s
population decreased permanently, although at the regions le vel, counties or towns we
can obseve fluctuations in the population numbers. Between 1990-2012 (Tempo-Online Database, data processing) the to tal population has d ecreased by 7.99%.

5 Ibidem , p. 54.
6 Rajendra Sharma, op. cit. , p. 127.
7 Ibidem , pp. 135-139.

Gabriel Pricin ă, Gabriela Motoi 104
The same trend is reflecte dat a regional level, were we see in al the regions
that the population registered declines between 2.15% in the North-East region and
13.23% in the West region.

Table 1
Total population’s structure
Region Population in
1990 Population in
2012 Population’s
evolutin Anual rate
Romania 23,211,395 21,355,849 –7.99% –0.35%
North-West 2,983,614 2,712,188 –9.10% –0.40%
Center 2,860,490 2,519,787 –11.91% –0.52%
North-East 3,781,932 3,700,695 –2.15% –0.09%
South-East 2,980,559 2,791,190 –6.35% –0.28%
South-Muntenia 3,619,796 3,239,247 –10.51% –0.46%
Bucharest-Ilfov 2,325,037 2,264,865 –2.59% –0.11%
South-West Oltenia 2,461,463 2,220,224 –9.80% –0.43%
West 2,198,504 1,907,653 –13.23% –0.58%
Source: National Statistical Institute, Tempo-Online Database, 2014, data processing.

The trends structure revealed by this study highlights the existence of some
regional or local factors that influen ce them. For understanding the demographic
decline some analysis are needed on th e impact that the demographic phenomena
have on the population volume.
The most important data come from statistical analysis of the total volume
population, mortality and natality. Through these changes we will sense the impact of the migratory movement of the population through the difference between the
evolution of the natural growth and the total population.
Table 2
The demographic body evolution ba sed on the main indicators
Region Population
in 1990 Population
2012 Anual
evolution in
1990-2012 Mortality
anual
evolution Natality
anual
evolution Natural
growth
average
North-West 2,983,614 2,712,188 –0.40% –0.37% –1.61% –1.29%
Center 2,860,490 2,519,787 –0.52% 0.01% –1.36% –0.46%
North-East 3,781,932 3,700,695 –0.09% 1.36% –1.72% 1.71%
South-East 2,980,559 2,791,190 –0.28% 1.03% –1.77% –0.97%
South
Muntenia 3,619,796 3,239,247 –0.46% 0.24% –1.71% –2.87%
Bucharest
Ilfov* 2,307,700 2,264,865 –0.11% 0.44% –0.23% –2.44%
South-West 2,461,463 2,220,224 –0.43% –0.13% –1.99% –2.99%
West 2,461,463 2,220,224 –0.58% –0.81% –1.58% –2.99%
* data starting with 1997
Source: National Statistical Institute, Tempo-Online Database, 2014, data processing

Contribute Factors to the Romanian Demographic Body 105
4. INFLUENCE DESCRIPTIONS BASED ON THE STATISTICAL CORRELATIONS
Romania’s total population trend is significantly influenced by other
demographic phenomena, such as natality or mortality. This is the result of a
specific way to configure these trends, of ten dependent on some certain changes
occured in an regional or an county level.
The evolution of Romania’s total popula tion is significantly correlated with
the developing regions population, but in varying degrees, resulting in three
groups. The first group consists in the Nort h – West, South – East and West, whose
trends correlate mostly with the nati onal trend, followed by a second cluster
consisting in a group with a significant corre lation but slightly lower than in the
first grou: the Center Region, North-East and South. The last group consists of Bucharest-Ilfov and the South-West regions that have weak correlations with the
national trends. Please note that we can not conclude that the two regions are
similar in the demographic phenomena tre nd as the population trends between the
two regions does not correlate. This means the existence of some particular demographic features of the two regions.
Mortality is correlated in all the region s by contributing to the national trend
in comparable proportions. Analysed separately from other demographic
phenomena we fiind that we can speak of a similar pattern in most developing
regions and the lack of correlation with the evolution of the other demographic
phenomena.
The only exception is the South-West Oltenia where we notice a link between
the mortality and the total population. Th e bivariate correlation indicates a weak
intensity of 0.453 at a 0.05 significance. The positive direction of this correlation
indicates a direct influence on the overall mortality’s population. Given the total
population’s trend likeness of this region with the Bucharest-Ilfov, but the relationship does not exist, we find the fi rst difference between the two regions.
This direct relationship indicates a grow th tendency in the elderly population,
followed logically by an increase of the mortality, revealing that a significant
proportion of young people are temporarily migr ating for work in other areas of the
conutry or abroad, perhaps returning wh en thei’re approaching retirement.
Deeping the analysis through the factor ial analysis indicates that there are
five major factors, with a composite internal structure, which determinate a significant change in the population (95.89%). In order, they are: mortality which
explains in a proportion of 26.15% the intern population dynamics; emigration,
which explains in a proportion of 21.67% the population dynamics; marriage,
explains the demographic phenomena in a proportion of 18.75%; natality which
explains the variation in a proportion of 16.05%; and the population structure,
which influence the demographic dynamics in a proportion of 13.27%.
The statistics show a major influence of the first two factors, encompassing
47.82% of the total explanation of the population dynamics. Both phenomena,

Gabriel Pricin ă, Gabriela Motoi 106
mortality and emigration have a nega tive influence on the demographic body
volume. Their influence on the overall de velopment shows that the demographic
body inhibating phenomena are predominant in the population’s dynamics.
The main phenomenon that helps to increase the population – natality – has a
reduced contribution of just 16.05% on the demographic dynamics. The
phenomenon which theoretically favors birt h – marriage – is contributing with
18.75%, but this contribution is indirect, there are many factors determinating this
phenomenon.
These phenomena are found and are influenced by the Romanian’s
population structure. All the elements that acts on the demographic body are
dependent by this indicator, which, in his turn, contribute to an extent of 13.27%.
By comparing the two types of analysis , we observe that although there are
no significant correlations between the demographic phenomena, some of them
contribute directly to the demographic body size. For example, mortality is not just
due to the aging process but also to the natural causes. This is due to the living
conditions, living standards, health system, working conditions, etc. In emigration’s case, prevailing are the econom ic conditions, freedom of movement,
host conuntries opportunities , etc. The nata lity is influenced by the population’s
social behavior, pro-natalist or anti-natalis t policy, family assistance, etc. How this
phenomena of different nature interact is complex and can be difficult to measure.
But the understanding of these relationships and how they interconnect may create
some necessary fundamentals of some public policy to mantain the demographic
body balanced.
5. THE DESIGN SIZE
In an attempt to highlight the future posibilities we conducted a statistical
experiment by analyzing the current dem ographic trends in projections for ten
years. The limits of this experiment are generated by the linear nature of the data
analyzed. Over the years there may be ev ents that cand change the course and may
determine other correlations. For understa nding the possible implications of the
present situation we try this method. After presenting the data there can be outlined
some general directions for action.
In order to define more percisel y the current demographic trends
consequences on long term, we continued the projection to 2020. The items sought
are those relating to take place between the demographic phenomena and factors
that determine the body dynamics. These relationships are im portant to understand
the departure points in developing a strate gy for the demographic balance and limit
some of the negative consequences of the demographic phenomena.

Contribute Factors to the Romanian Demographic Body 107
The projection of the demographic evolution for 2020, highlights some
significant issues. The bivariate correlations comparison shows that between the
country’s population and the regional population will produce mild changes that in
long-term will approach the recorded correlation values. Thus, the regions
correlated very strong with the national tre nd was reducted to two, incresing to four
regions from the second category. The tw o regions (Bucharest-Ilfov and South-
West) which moderately correlates with the national trend have taken different
directions: the first region correlation inte nsity is decreasing, while the second
region trend correlation intensity is growing.
Mortality continues to strongly correlate in all regions. The only coincidences
that can attain future consistency exists in how the insignificant correlations tend to
become inverse correlations.
The factorial analysis highlights five determinants factors of the future
evolution of the demographic body: mort ality (explaining the dynamics in a
percentage of 29.11%), emigration (explai ning the dynamics on a rate of 21.16%),
marriage (explaining in a proportion of 18.59%), population structure (explaining
in a proportion of 14.91%) and natality (w hich explains the demographic dynamics
modification in a proportion of 12.39%). The total of this dynamic explains the population dynamic in a proportion of 96.15%.

Table 3
The future influence of the demogra phic phenomena on the Romanian population
Proportion in which it explains the demographic dynamics Year
Phenomenon 2010 2015 2020
Mortality 26,15 25,88 29,11
Emigration 21,67 18,90 21,16
Marriage 18,75 16,57 18,59
Natality 16,05 16,09 12,38
Population structure 13,27 13,51 14,91
Divorce – 5,40 –
Total 95,89 96,35 96,15
Source: National Statistical Institute, Tempo-Online Database, 2014, data processing

It appears that the current demographic structure will significantly increase
mortality’s influence on the demographic dynamics. Also, emigration will consistently influence the demographic body volume, with negative consequences
on the age groups balance. Marriage will retu rn to the share it currently hold, and
nuptiality, the phenomenon favored by marri age will decrease consistenly between
the phenomena influencing the demographic body. The population structure will
have a greater influence on the population dynamics.

Gabriel Pricin ă, Gabriela Motoi 108
CONCLUSIONS
By this projection we fiind that the main demographic phenomenon that
influence the actual demographic body – mortality – can be understood from many
perspectives: on the one hand we talk about a phenomenon with an increasing
influence, due to some factors connect ed with its evolution, such as life
expectancy, on the other hand we see a tr end of population aging, the consequences
of which will be reflected in the increased mortality. Emigration is contributing to
this trend through the young people that are leaving the borders. Following these arguments we call in attention the dime nsion of this phenomenon, compared to
those that maintain the demographic balan ce such as natality. The natural growth
tilt the balance significantly toward mortality, showing a clear tendency to reduce
the demographic’s natural body.
Mortality is an imminent natural pheno menon, one that can not be influenced
by a certain public policy. In developed countries it appear later for a large number
of citizens, while the less developed count ries it occurs in a shorter period of time.
In terms of life expectancy, it’s the i ndicator widely used for life quality, it can
create a world map. Life expectancy is ve ry low in many countries on the African
continent and very high in Europe, Am erica and Japan. The reasons for which
these phenomena have specific causes on every society, especialy on cultural and social nature. However, in poorer countri es with lower life expectancy, the natality
in higher balancing the internal structure of the demographic body. In Romania’s
case we ask about the long-term conseque nces generated by a demographic decline
due to a low life expectancy specific to the developing or poor countries, a low
natality specific to the developed countries, all amid a significant migrations and a
difficult social-economic context.
In the absence of a positive natality able to determine a natural balance equal
with 0 or greater, we will witness in time, mortality’s increasing influence in the population’s volume dynamics. In less developed countries, particularly Arab
countries, there is a high natality, wich register higher values than anywhere in the
world, but amid a low life expectancy we witness a moderate population’s growth.
Maintaining a high natality amid a prolonged life expectancy determinates an
accelerate demographic body growth.
The aplicability of such analyzes is found in the government planning effort:
the amount of food, necessary financial mass, number of schools and hospitals, the
number of doctors needed, the study of th e labor market, the needs of the human
communities, etc. The systematic analysis of the demographic phenomena is the
way to evaluate the current needs and the future needs.
The guidelines of a demographic’s body public policy balance can be drawn
based on the determinants hierarchy. For example, in 2010 the mortality influenced

Contribute Factors to the Romanian Demographic Body 109
the demographic body in a proportion of 26.15% , but in current configuration we
can wait at a influence of 29.11% in 2020, we will asist at an aggravation of this influence. Increasing the life expectancy becomes one of the objectives of a
demographic strategy. Investments in the social services system, partycularly the
elders infrastructure, is a long term so lution to limit the rising influence of
mortality. The health care becomes a major role in such a strategy. The high price
of medicine and medical services system removes many people and the
consequences are those of an incresing trend of mortality.
Emigration is a factor almost entirely determined by the economic size. The
rising poverty and the lack of jobs are th e constituent elements of this factor. We
believe that by inspiring solutions to slow emigration, and even stabilize it, we can
hope to remain in the country a large number of young people of working age.
Individual strategy of migrants is due to normal life goals for young people:
ensuring a minimum standard of living, facilities to obtain a job or to obtain a low-
interest loans for starting a business or bu ying a home. The current standard of
living and high costs of living, unreported to the wage level will be generating
permanent emigration. Identifying and deve loping solutions and regulations aimed
to block the speculative actions that d ecrease the life quality (food prices, utilities
or even the the recent discriminatory gr owth of the cars insurance owned by youn
people) can contribute in some way to reducing the emigration.
The marriage emergence third in the hierarchy of the factors influencing the
demographic body indicating not just a factor related to the demographic body, but that the family as the fundamental social unit is affected by the social-economic
conditions. The decreasing number of marriag es can not be considered just an
effect of the demographic decline. The decline of marriage has profound social and
economic foundation. Public policy suppor t for young families are ineffective,
even discouraging. Although the influence on the demographic body is indirect
because natality is influenced almost entir ely by marriage, this analysis shows that
the phenomenon with direct influenced on the total population – natality – is
dependent, in Romania’s case by the numb er of family founded. Thus, any pro-
natalist measures should include a number of provisions to support the family and
the establishment of the new families. In th is sense we believe that the only benefit
that addresses to the newborns are not suffi cient to influence natality. The current
value is different from the traditional. Firs tly the growth of the educational leve
land the need to establish a career dete rminates a delay in the time the young
people enter into marriage.
Natality occupies fourth place in the hierarchy of factors influencing the
country’s total population. Medical services addressed to young children are
insufficient, statistics indicating a very high infant mortality. The risk of poverty is high for many Romanians, which makes th e number of children in a middle class

Gabriel Pricin ă, Gabriela Motoi 110
family limited on an average of one or two children. Enhanced protection for
young mothers and children can be useful in developing higher birth rates.
The last factor that influences the demographic body volume is the
popularion’s structure, identified by the age gropu shares. Negative trends of the younger age groups and the positive trend of the older age population have an
undesirable effect on the population and the consequences will have effects
becoming more visible on the life quality.
Finaly, we consider that the public polic ies necessary for the recovery of the
demographic body imply an conjugation efort of several elements to achive visible results, taking into account the time required for the appearance of the first visible
effects.