HAL Id: tel-00996394 [620137]

HAL Id: tel-00996394
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00996394
Submitted on 26 May 2014
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The influence of cognitive, learning and social
interaction skills of investors on the price formation
mechanism : an analysis helped by the conception of an
financial market simulator
Lucian Daniel Stanciu-Viziteu
T o cite this version:
Lucian Daniel Stanciu-Viziteu. The influence of cognitive, learning and social interaction skills of in-
vestors on the price formation mechanism : an analysis helped by the conception of an financial market
simulator. Business administration. Université de Grenoble, 2013. English. ￿NNT : 2013GRENG008￿.
￿tel-00996394￿

Université Joseph Fourier / Université Pierre Mendè s France /
Université Stendhal / Université de Savoie / Grenob le INP THÈSE
Pour obtenir le grade de
DOCTEUR DE L’UNIVERSITÉ DE GRENOBLE
Spécialité : Sciences de Gestion
Arrêté ministériel : 7 août 2006

Présentée par
Lucian Daniel STANCIU-VIZITEU

Thèse dirigée par Ollivier TARAMASCO

préparée au sein du Laboratoire Centre d’Etudes et de
Recherches Appliques a la Gestion
dans l'École Doctorale de Sciences de Gestion

L’influence des processus cognitif,
d’apprentissage et d’interaction sociaux
des investisseurs sur le processus de
formation des prix : une analyse grâce à
la conception d’un simulateur de marché
financier

Thèse soutenue publiquement le « 5 Juin 2013 » ,
devant le jury composé de :
Monsieur Pascal LOUVET
Professeur a l’IAE de Grenoble (Président du jury)
Monsieur Olivier BRANDOUY
Professeur a l’Université Paris 1 (Rapporteur)
Monsieur Ollivier TARAMASCO
Professeur a l’ENSIMAG Grenoble (Directeur de Thèse )
Monsieur Ion STANCU
Professeur a ASE Bucarest, Roumanie (Rapporteur)
Monsieur Hervé ALEXANDRE
Professeur a l’Université Paris Dauphine (Examinate ur)

❯◆ș❱❊❘❙ș❚❨ ❖❋ ●❘❊◆❖❇▲❊
❉❖❈❚❖❘❆▲ ❙❈❍❖❖▲ ❖❋ ▼❆◆❆●❊▼❊◆❚
❙❚❯❉ș❊❙
P ❍ ❉ ❚ ❍ ❊ ❙ ș ❙
t♦ ♦❜t❛✐♥ t❤❡ t✐t❧❡ ♦❢
P❤❉ ♦❢ ❙❝✐❡♥❝❡
♦❢ t❤❡ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ ●r❡♥♦❜❧❡
❙♣❡❝✐❛❧t② ✿ ❋ș◆❆◆❈❊
❉❡❢❡♥❞❡❞ ❜ ②
▲✉❝✐❛♥ ❉❛♥✐❡❧ ❙t ❛♥❝✐✉✲❱✐③✐t❡✉
❚❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ♦♥
t❤❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
♠❛r❦❡ts
❚❤❡s✐s ❆❞✈✐s♦r✿ ❖❧❧✐✈✐❡r ❚ ❛r❛♠❛s❝♦
♣r❡♣❛r❡❞ ❛t ❈❊❘❆● ▲❛❜♦r❛t♦r② ✱ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ❚ ❡❛♠
❞❡❢❡♥❞❡❞ ♦♥ ✺ ❏✉♥❡✱ ✷✵✶✸
❏✉r② ✿
❘ ❡✈✐❡✇❡rs ✿ ș♦♥ ❙t ❛♥❝✉ ✲ ❆❙❊ ✭❘♦✉♠❛♥✐❡✱❇✉❝ ❤❛r❡st✮
❖❧❧✐✈✐❡r ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✲ ❯♥✐✈ ❡rs✐t ② P ❛r✐s ✶
❆ ❞✈✐s♦r ✿ ❖❧❧✐✈ ❡r ❚ ❛r❛♠❛s❝♦ ✲ ❊◆❙ș▼❆ ● ✭●r❡♥♦❜❧❡✮
❊①❛♠✐♥❛t♦rs ✿ P ❛s❝❛❧ ▲♦✉✈❡t ✲ ș❆❊ ✭●r❡♥♦❜❧❡✮
❍❡r✈ ❡ ❆❧❡①❛♥❞r❡ ✲ ❯♥✐✈ ❡rs✐t ② P ❛r✐s ❉❛✉♣❤✐♥❡

❆❝❦♥♦✇❧❡❞❣♠❡♥ts
❚❤❛♥❦ ②♦✉✦
❋✐rst ♦❢ ❛❧❧ ș ✇♦✉❧❞ ❧✐❦❡ t♦ t❤❛♥❦ t❤❡ ♣❡♦♣❧❡ t❤❛t t♦♦❦ t❤❡ t✐♠❡ t♦ r❡❛❞ ❛♥❞ ♦✛❡r
❤✐♥ts ❢♦r ✐♠♣r♦✈✐♥❣ ♠② ✇♦r❦✱ ❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧❧② t❤♦s❡ t❤❛t ❛❝❝❡♣t❡❞ ❛ ♣♦s✐t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞❡❢❡♥s❡
❥✉r②✿ ✬r♦❢✳ ❖❧❧✐✈✐❡r ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ✬r♦❢✳ ș♦♥ ❙t❛♥❝✉✱ ✬r♦❢✳ ❍❡r✈❡ ❆❧❡①❛♥❞r❡ ❛♥❞ ✬r♦❢✳
✬❛s❝❛❧ ▲♦✉✈❡t✳
șt ❤❛s ❜❡❡♥ t❤r❡❡ ✭❛♥❞ ❛ ❤❛❧❢ ✮ ②❡❛rs s✐♥❝❡ ș st❛rt❡❞ t❤✐s ✇♦r❦✳ ❚❤❛t ✐s r❡❛❧❧②
❛ ❧♦♥❣ t✐♠❡ ✭ș ♥♦✇ ❤❛✈❡ s♦♠❡ ❣r❡② ❤❛✐r✮ ❛♥❞ ❞✉r✐♥❣ t❤✐s ♣❡r✐♦❞ ș ❤❛✈❡ ♠❡❡t ❛ ❧♦t
♦❢ ♣❡♦♣❧❡ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❤❡❧♣❡❞ ♦ s❤❛♣❡ ♠② ✐❞❡❛s ❛❜♦✉t ❤♦✇ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✇♦r❦s✱ ❛♥❞ ❛❜♦✉t t❤❡
✇♦r❧❞ ✐♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✳ ❍❡r❡ ✐t ❣♦❡s✿ t❤❛♥❦ ②♦✉ ✬❛s❝❛❧ ▲♦✉✈❡t ❢♦r tr✉st✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❤❡❧♣✐♥❣
♠❡ ❞✐s❝♦✈❡r t❤❡ ❜❡st ✐♥ ♠②s❡❧❢✱ t❤❛♥❦ ②♦✉ t♦ t❤❡ ♣❡♦♣❧❡ ✇❤♦ ❞❡❝✐❞❡❞ ș ✇❛s ✇♦rt❤
❣❡tt✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❞♦❝t♦r❛❧ s❝❤♦❧❛rs❤✐♣✱ ❛ ❜✐❣ t❤❛♥❦s t♦ ♠② ♦✣❝❡ ❜✉❞❞✐❡s ✭❋ r❛♥❦✱ ș♥❣r✐❞✱
▲❛✉r❛✱ ❆❧✐✱ ❙❛r❛❤✱ ❈②r✐❡❧❧❡✱ ❏❡ss✐❝❛✱ ❖♠❛r✱ ❩❛❦ ❛r✐❛✱ t❤❡ s❤❛r❦s✱ ❡t❝✳✮ ✲ ✐t ✇❛s ❛ ❧♦t
♦❢ ❢✉♥✳ ❚❤❛♥❦ ②♦✉ ❈❤❛r❧❡s✱ ▼❛r✐❡✲❈❤r✐st✐♥❡✱ ❙❛r❛❤✱ ❇❡r♥❛r❞✱ ❋❧♦r❡♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❇r✐❣✐tt❡
❢♦r ②♦✉r ♣r❡❝✐♦✉s ❤❡❧♣✳ ❚❤❛♥❦s t♦ ♠② ❢❡❧❧♦✇ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r✲❣❡❡❦s ▼❛①✐♠❡✱ ▲✐♦♥❡❧ ❛♥❞
❋ r❛♥❝♦✐s ✲ ②♦✉ ✉♥❞❡rst♦♦❞ ♠❡ ✇❤❡♥ ♥♦ ♦♥❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❞❡♣❛rt♠❡♥t ❞✐❞ ✭❜❡❝❛✉s❡
t❤❡② ❝♦✉❧❞♥✬t✮✳ ❆ s♣❡❝✐❛❧ t❤❛♥❦ ②♦✉ t♦ ▼❛r❝♦ ●❛❧❜✐❛t✐ ✇✐t❤ ✇❤♦♠ ș ✇♦r❦❡❞ ❛t t❤❡
❊❈❇ ✲ ②♦✉ r❡❛❧❧② ♠❛❞❡ ♠❡ ❡♥❥♦② r❡s❡❛r❝❤✳ ❚❤❛♥❦ ②♦✉ t♦ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ❘♦♠❛♥✐❛♥ ♣❡♦♣❧❡
ș ♠❡t ✐♥ ●r❡♥♦❜❧❡ ✲ ✐t r❡❛❧❧② ❤❡❧♣❡❞ ♠❡ ❢❡❡❧ ❝❧♦s❡r t♦ ❤♦♠❡✳ ❆♥❞ t❤❛♥❦ ②♦✉ ❦✐♥❞
r❡❛❞❡r ❢♦r t❛❦✐♥❣ t❤❡ t✐♠❡ t♦ ❧♦♦❦ t❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤✐s ❞♦❝✉♠❡♥t✳ ș r❡❛❧❧② ❤♦♣❡ ✐t ✇✐❧❧ ♦✛❡r
②♦✉ s♦♠❡ ✐♥t❡r❡st✐♥❣ ✐♥s✐❣❤ts ✐♥t♦ t❤❡ ✇♦r❧❞ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳
✬❙✿ ♦❤ ②❡s✱ ș ❦❡♣t t❤❡ ❜❡st ❢♦r t❤❡ ❡♥❞✳ ❚❤❛♥❦ ②♦✉ ❖❧❧✐✈✐❡r ❚ ❛r❛♠❛s❝♦ ✲ ș ❝♦✉❧❞
♥♦t ❤❛✈❡ ❤❛❞ ❛ ❜❡tt❡r ❛❞✈✐s♦r✳ ș ❧❡❛r♥❡❞ ❛ ❧♦t ♦❢ t❤✐♥❣s ❢r♦♠ ②♦✉ ❛♥❞ ș ❤♦♣❡ ②♦✉
❡♥❥♦②❡❞ t❤✐s ❡①♣❡r✐❡♥❝❡ ❛s ♠✉❝❤ ❛s ș ❞✐❞✳ ❚❤❛♥❦ ②♦✉ ▼❛r✐❛ ❢♦r ②♦✉r s✉♣♣♦rt ❛♥❞
❢♦r ♦✛❡r✐♥❣ ♠❡ ❛ ❤❛♥❞❢✉❧ ♦❢ ✐♥✈ ❛❧✉❛❜❧❡ ❧✐❢❡ ❧❡ss♦♥s✳ ▲❛st❧② ✱ t❤❛♥❦ ②♦✉ ●♦❞ ❢♦r ❣✐✈✐♥❣
♠❡ str❡♥❣t❤ ❛♥❞ ❤❡❧♣✐♥❣ ♠❡ ✜♥✐s❤ t❤✐s ✇♦r❦✳

✐✐
❆❜str❛❝t
❲ ❡ ❝♦♥str✉❝t ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r s✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❚ r❛❞✐♥❣ ✐♥ t❤✐s
♠❛r❦❡t ✐s ♥♦t ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✉s✳ ❚❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❢♦r♠❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦✳ ❚❤❡
♠♦❞❡❧❧❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs r❡❝❡✐✈❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ t❤❡② ❛tt❡♠♣t t♦ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ t❤❡✐r
✇❡❛❧t❤✳ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥t tr❛❞❡rs✱ ❢r♦♠ ♥♦✐s❡ t♦ ❝❤❛rt✐st ❛♥❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞✱ ❝♦❡①✐st ✐♥ t❤❡ s❛♠❡
♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❲ ❡ s❤♦✇ ❤♦✇ st②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❢♦r♠❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ♣r❡s❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❝❤❛rt✐sts ♦r ❛
s✐♠♣❧❡ ❧❛❣ ✐♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ Pr✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❝❛♥ ❛r✐s❡ ✇❤❡♥ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡
❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡❞ ❜② t❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧ tr❛❞❡rs✳ ș♥t❡r❡st✐♥❣❧② ✇❡ s❤♦✇ t❤❛t ✇❡❧❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
❝❛♥ ❡❛r♥ ♠♦r❡ ✐❢ t❤❡ ❛❞♦♣t✱ ✐♥ s♣❡❝✐❛❧ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥s✱ ❛ t❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧ str❛t❡❣② ✳ ❯s✐♥❣ ♦✉r
r❡s✉❧ts ✇❡ ♣r♦♣♦s❡ ❛ ♥❡✇ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❢♦r ♠❛r❦❡t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✧s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ❡✣❝✐❡♥t
♠❛r❦❡ts✧✳ ▼♦r❡♦✈❡r✱ ✇❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ t❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t ♦❢ ✧str❛t❡❣②✲str♦♥❣ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡ts✧✳
❑❡②✇ ♦r❞s ❝♦♠♣✉t❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✱ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡ts✱ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✱ ♠✉❧t✐✲❛❣❡♥t✱ s✐♠✉✲
❧❛t✐♦♥✱ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✱ st②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts✱ r✐s❦ ♠❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t

❈♦♥t❡♥ts
✶ ❘❡s✉♠❡ ❞❡ t❤❡s❡ ✺
✷ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ✶✶
✷✳✶ ❈♦♥ t❡①t ❛♥❞ ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶
✷✳✷ ș♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❝♦♥❝❡♣ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹
✷✳✸ ❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s t❤❡② ❝❛✉s❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻
✷✳✹ ❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✈s✳ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽
✷✳✺ ❘❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✵
✷✳✻ ❘❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ▼❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✶
✷✳✼ ❆ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✱ ❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❧✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤✐s st✉❞② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✸
✷✳✽ ❘❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ❛♥❞ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✺
✷✳✽✳✶ ❲❤❛t ✐s ❛♥ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r❄ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✻
✷✳✽✳✷ ❆r❡ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♣r❡s❡♥ t ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts❄ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✼
✷✳✾ ❆ ✈ ❡r② s❤♦rt ❤✐st♦r② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✾
✷✳✶✵ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✵
✸ ❖❜ ❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞② ✸✸
✸✳✶ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✹
✸✳✷ ❆s②♠♠❡tr② ❛♥❞ q✉❛❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✻
✸✳✸ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✽
✸✳✹ ❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✾
✸✳✺ Pr✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✶
✸✳✻ Pr✐❝❡ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✸
✸✳✼ ❈❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤❡s t♦ st✉❞②✐♥❣ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✼
✸✳✽ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✽
✹ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✺✶
✹✳✶ ❈♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✶
✹✳✷ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✻

✷ ❈♦♥ t❡♥ ts
✹✳✷✳✶ ❉❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✻
✹✳✷✳✷ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✻
✹✳✷✳✸ ❆ ❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ♦❢ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✾
✹✳✸ ❚ ♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✶
✹✳✸✳✶ ◆♦t❛❜❧❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✷
✹✳✸✳✷ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✽
✹✳✸✳✸ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ t✐♠❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✾
✹✳✸✳✹ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✾
✹✳✸✳✺ ❇✐❛s ✐♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss✐♥❣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✵
✹✳✸✳✻ ❘✐s❦ ❛♥❞ t✐♠❡ ♣r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✶
✹✳✸✳✼ ❆❣❡♥ t ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✶
✹✳✸✳✽ ❆❣❡♥ t str❛t❡❣② ❜✐❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✸
✹✳✸✳✾ ❖r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✸
✹✳✹ ❈r✐t✐❝s ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛s ❛ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ❢♦r
r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✹
✹✳✹✳✶ ❊q✉✐✈ ❛❧❡♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛♥❞ ❛
♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✻
✺ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮ ✼✾
✺✳✶ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r✱ ❡♥ ✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥ t ❛♥❞ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✾
✺✳✷ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✶
✺✳✸ ❖r❞❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✹
✺✳✸✳✶ ❖r❞❡rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✹
✺✳✸✳✷ ❖r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✻
✺✳✹ ❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts✱ t❤❡✐r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✶
✺✳✹✳✶ ❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ t ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✶
✺✳✹✳✷ ❚❤❡ ❜✐❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✸
✺✳✹✳✸ ❚❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✹
✺✳✺ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ❝♦♥✜❣✉r❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✷
✻ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ✶✵✺
✻✳✶ ❖r♦ ♦❢ ♦❢ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t ✈ ❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥s ✲ ❇❡♥❝ ❤♠❛r❦ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✺

❈♦♥t❡♥ts ✸
✻✳✷ ❇✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✸
✻✳✷✳✶ ❇✐❛s❡s ✐♥ ✈ ♦❧✈✐♥❣ ❧❛❣s ✐♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✹
✻✳✸ ❱ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ✧st ②❧✐③❡❞✧ ❢❛❝ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✾
✻✳✹ ❇✉❜❜❧❡s✿ ❤♦ ✇ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ❣r♦ ✇ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✳ ✶✸✽
✻✳✺ ❙✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✼
✼ ❚❤❡ s❤❛r❦ ❣❛♠❡✿ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ✇✐t❤ ❜♦✉♥❞❡❞ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t② ✶✼✸
✼✳✶ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✸
✼✳✷ ❚❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✺
✼✳✸ ❘❡s✉❧ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✾
✼✳✹ ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✸
✽ ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s ✶✽✺
✽✳✶ ❖✉r ❝♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✺
✽✳✷ ▼❛✐♥ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✼
❆ ❆♣♣❡♥❞✐① ✷✵✶
❆✳✶ ❆r❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❡t❤✐❝❛❧❧② ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t❄ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✵✶
❆✳✷ ❈❡♥ tr❛❧ ▲✐♠✐t ❚❤❡♦r② ❢♦r ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✵✺
❆✳✸ ❙✐❣♥❛❧ t♦ ♥♦✐s❡ ❘❛t✐♦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✵✺
❇✐❜❧✐♦❣r❛♣❤② ✷✵✼

❈❤❛♣t❡r ✶
❘❡s✉♠❡ ❞❡ t❤❡s❡
❊♥tr❡ ❏✉✐♥ ✷✵✵✼ ❡t ◆♦✈❡♠❜r❡ ✷✵✵✽✱ ❧❡s ❝✐t♦②❡♥s ❛♠ér✐❝❛✐♥s ♦♥t ♣❡r❞✉✱ ❡♥ ♠♦②❡♥♥❡✱
✉♥ q✉❛rt ❞❡ ❧❡✉rs ❛✈♦✐rs ♥❡ts✳ ▲❡ t♦t❛❧ ❞❡s ❛❝t✐❢s ❞❡s ❢♦♥❞s ❞❡ ♣❡♥s✐♦♥ ❛ ❝❤✉té ❞❡ ✷✷✪
✭♣❡rt❡ ❞❡ ✶✳✸ ♠✐❧❧✐❛r❞s ❞❡ ❞♦❧❧❛rs✮✳ ▲❛ ♣❡rt❡ s✉❜✐❡ ♣❛r ❧❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ✐♥t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥❛✉①
❡st ❞✉ ♠❡♠❡ ♦r❞r❡ ❞❡ ❣r❛♥❞❡✉r✳ ❯♥❡ ✈✐s✐♦♥ ❝②♥✐q✉❡✱ ✈♦✐r❡ s✐♠♣❧✐st❡✱ ❝♦♥s✐st❡ ❛ ❞✐r❡
q✉❡ ❝❡tt❡ ré❝❡♥t❡ ❝r✐s❡ ❡st ❧❡ rés✉❧t❛t ❞❡ ❧✬❡①♣❧♦s✐♦♥ ❞✬✉♥❡ ❜✉❧❧❡✱ ❡♥ ❛✉tr❡s t❡r♠❡s
❝❡❧❧❡✲❝✐ ét❛♥t ❧✐é❡ ❛ ✉♥ r❡t♦✉r ❞❡s ♠❛r❝❤és ❛ ❧✬❡✣❝✐❡♥❝❡✳ ❉❛♥s ♥♦tr❡ tr❛✈ ❛✐❧✱ ♥♦✉s
♣r♦✉✈♦♥s q✉❡ ❧✬✐❞é❡ ❞✬❡✣❝✐❡♥❝❡ ❡st ✐♥❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ♣♦✉r ❞é❝r✐r❡ ✉♥ ♠❛r❝❤é ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡r✳ ❆
♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ♥♦s rés✉❧t❛ts ♥♦✉s ♣r♦♣♦s♦♥s ❧❛ t❤é♦r✐❡ ❞❡s ♠❛r ❝❤és ♣ ❛r❢♦✐s ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ✳
❯♥ ♠❛r❝❤é ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡r ❡st ❝♦♠♣♦sé ❞❡ ♥♦♠❜r❡✉s❡s ❝♦♠♣♦s❛♥t❡s ❤étér♦❣❡♥❡s ❡t
❝♦♠♣❧❡①❡s✳ ❏✉sq✉✬❛ ré❝❡♠♠❡♥t✱ ❧❡s ét✉❞❡s ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡r❡s s❡ s♦♥t ❛♣♣✉②é❡s s✉r ❞❡s ❜❛s❡s
t❤é♦r✐q✉❡s t❡❧s q✉❡ ❧✬❤♦♠♦❣é♥é✐té ❞❡s ❡s♣ér❛♥❝❡s ❞❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs✱ ❧❡✉r r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐té
♦✉ ❧✬❛❝❝❡s ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❡ ❛ ❧✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ▲❛ ré❛❧✐té ❞❡s ♠❛r❝❤és ❛✐♥s✐ q✉❡ ❧✬é✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ❞❡s
♦✉t✐❧s ❞✬❛♥❛❧②s❡ ♦♥t ♦✉✈❡rt ❧❛ ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐té ❞✬ét✉❞✐❡r ❧❡s ♠❛r❝❤és ❞❛♥s ✉♥ ❝❛❞r❡ ♠♦✐♥s
❝♦♥tr❛✐❣♥❛♥t ❡t ♣❧✉s ré❛❧✐st❡✳ ❈♦✉r ♠♦❞é❧✐s❡r ✉♥ ♠❛r❝❤é ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡r✱ ♥♦✉s r❡♠♣❧❛ç♦♥s
❧❡ ❧❛♥❣❛❣❡ ♠❛t❤é♠❛t✐q✉❡ ♣❛r ❧❡ ❧❛♥❣❛❣❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐q✉❡✳ ❆✐♥s✐✱ ♥♦✉s ❛✈♦♥s s✐♠✉❧é ✉♥
♠❛r❝❤é ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡r ❛✈❡❝ t♦✉s s❡s ❝♦♠♣♦s❛♥t❡s ✿ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❡t ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❞❡s ♣r✐①✳
❉❛♥s ♥♦tr❡ ♠❛r❝❤é s✐♠✉❧é✱ ♥♦✉s ❛✈♦♥s ✉♥ s❡✉❧ ❛❝t✐❢ r✐sq✉é q✉✐ ❛ ✉♥❡ ✈ ❛❧❡✉r
❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧❡ Vt✱ ❛✈❡❝ ❞❡s r❡♥t❛❜✐❧✐tés ♥♦r♠❛❧❡♠❡♥t ❞✐str✐❜✉é❡s✳ ❈❡tt❡ ✈ ❛❧❡✉r ❢♦♥❞❛✲
♠❡♥t❛❧❡ ❡st ✉♥ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t t❤é♦r✐q✉❡ q✉✐ ♥♦✉s ❛✐❞❡ ❛ ❝♦♥str✉✐r❡ ✉♥ ✢✉① ❞✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❛✈❡❝ ✉♥ s❡♥s ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡r✳ ❖♥ ❞é✜♥✐t ❧✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❢❛✐t❡ ❝♦♠♠❡ It=Pt−Vt+1 ✳ ❆
♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❧✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ It ❧❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs✱ ✈✐❛ ❧❡✉rs ♦r❞r❡s✱ ✈♦♥t ❝ré❡r ❧❡ ♥♦✉✈❡❛✉①
♣r✐① ❞❡ ♠❛r❝❤é Pt+1 q✉❡ ❧✬♦♥ ♣❡✉t ❝♦♥s✐❞ér❡r ❝♦♠♠❡ ❧✬❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡ ♠❛r❝❤é ❞❡ ❧❛
✈ ❛❧❡✉r ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ Vt+1 ✳ ❚ ❡♥❛♥t ❝♦♠♣t❡ ❞❡ ❧✬❤étér♦❣é♥é✐té ❞❡s ✐♥t❡r♣rét❛t✐♦♥s ❡t
❞❡s ❜✐❛✐s ❞❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs✱ ❝❤❛❝✉♥ ✈ ❛ r❡❝❡✈♦✐r ✉♥❡ ✈❡rs✐♦♥ ♠♦❞✐✜é❡ ❞❡ ❧✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
♣❛r❢❛✐t❡✳ ❆✐♥s✐ ❧✬✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉r ① ✈ ❛ r❡❝❡✈♦✐r ❧✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ Ix,t=ax∗It+bx ✳ ▲❡s
♣❛r❛♠❡tr❡s ax ❡tbx ♥♦✉s ♣❡r♠❡tt❡♥t ❞❡ ❝ré❡r ✉♥❡ ❧❛r❣❡ ✈ ❛r✐été ❞❡ ❝♦♠♣♦rt❡♠❡♥ts
❞❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ✿ ax> ✶ ré✈❡❧❡ ❞❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs q✉✐ ♦♥t ❧❛ t❡♥❞❛♥❝❡ ❞✬❡①❛❣ér❡r
❧✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ bx> ✵ ✐♥❞✐q✉❡ ❞❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ♦♣t✐♠✐st❡s ❡t bx<0 ❞❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs
♣❡ss✐♠✐st❡s✳
▲❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ♠♦❞é❧✐sés ❞❛♥s ♥♦tr❡ s②st❡♠❡ ♣❡✉✈❡♥t ✉t✐❧✐s❡r ✉♥❡ ❞❡ ❝❡s ❞❡✉①
str❛té❣✐❡s✿ ✉♥❡ str❛té❣✐❡ ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧❡ ✭✐♥❢♦r♠é❡✮ ♦✉ ✉♥❡ str❛té❣✐❡ ❝❤❛rt✐st❡ ✭♥♦♥✲
✐♥❢♦r♠é❡✮✳ ▲❛ str❛té❣✐❡ ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧❡ ✐♠♣❧✐q✉❡ q✉❡ ❧✬✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉r s✉♣♣♦s❡ q✉❡ ❧❡ ♣r✐①
❡st ❜♦♥ s✬✐❧ ❡st ❞❛♥s ✉♥ ✐♥t❡r✈ ❛❧❧❡ ❛✉t♦✉r ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈ ❛❧❡✉r ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧❡✳ ▲✬✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉r

✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✶✳ ❘❡s✉♠❡ ❞❡ t❤❡s❡
✈ ❛ ❡st✐♠❡r ❧❛ ✈ ❛❧❡✉r ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧❡ ❡♥ ✉t✐❧✐s❛♥ t ❧❡ ♣r✐① ❞❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é ❡t ❧✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
r❡ç✉❡ ❛✐♥s✐✿ Ex,t(Vt+1) =Pt+Ix,t. ✳ ❊♥ ♣❛ss❛♥ t ❞❡s ♦r❞r❡s✱ ❝❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❡s♣ ❡r❡♥ t
❣❛❣♥❡r ✉♥❡ r❡♥ t❛❜✐❧✐té ♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠ rmin ✱ q✉✐ ❡st ❧❡ r❡✢❡t ❞❡ ❧✬❛ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥ ❛✉ r✐sq✉❡ ❡t ❞❡
❧✬❡s♣ ér❛♥❝❡ ❞❡s ❣❛✐♥s r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ❛ ❝ ❤❛q✉❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉r✳ ❉♦♥❝✱ ❧✬✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉r ① ✱ q✉✐ ✉t✐❧✐s❡
✉♥❡ str❛té❣✐❡ ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧❡✱ ✈ ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞ér❡r q✉❡ ❧❡ ♣r✐① ❞❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é ❡st ❜ ♦♥ q✉❛♥❞ ✐❧ ❡st
❞❛♥s ❧✬✐♥ t❡r✈ ❛❧❧❡ [L,H] ♦✉
[L=Ex,t(Vt+1)∗(1−rmin);H=Ex,t(Vt+1)∗(1+rmin)]
❆✐♥s✐ ❧✬✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉r ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛ ✈ ❡♥❞r❡ s❡s ❛❝t✐❢s✱ ❛✉ ♣r✐① ♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠ ❍✱ q✉❛♥❞
Pt> H ❡t ✐❧ ✈ ❛ ❛❝ ❤❡t❡r ❞❡s ❛❝t✐❢s✱ ❛✉ ♣r✐① ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ▲✱ q✉❛♥❞ Pt< L ✳ ❯♥
t❡❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉r ❡s♣ ❡r❡ ♣r♦✜t❡r ❞❡s ❡rr❡✉rs ❞✬é✈ ❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥ ❞✉ ♠❛r❝ ❤é✳ ▲✬✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉r
❝ ❤❛rt✐st❡✱ ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠é✱ ❡s♣ ❡r❡ ♣r♦✜t❡ ❞❡s t❡♥❞❛♥❝❡s ❞❡s ♣r✐①✳ ❯♥❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st❡ r❡❣❛r❞❡
❧❡s r❡♥ t❛❜✐❧✐tés ♣❛ssé❡s ❡t s✬✐❧ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ❧❛ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❞✬✉♥❡ t❡♥❞❛♥❝❡ ✐❧ ✈ ❛ ❡ss❛ ② ❡r ❞✬❡♥
♣r♦✜t❡r✳ ✸ ❛r ❡①❡♠♣❧❡✱ s✬✐❧ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ q✉❡ ❧❡s tr♦✐s ❞❡r♥✐❡r❡s r❡♥ t❛❜✐❧✐tés ♦♥ t été ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡s
(Rt∗Rt−1∗Rt−2>0) ✱ ❧❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st❡ ✈ ❛ ❛❝ ❤❡t❡r ❞❡s ❛❝t✐❢s ❡♥ ❡s♣ ér❛♥ t q✉❡ ❧❛ t❡♥❞❛♥❝❡
♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ ✈ ❛ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡r✳ ❚ ♦✉s ❧❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❝ ❤❛rt✐st❡s ♦♥ t ❞❡✉① r❡❣❧❡s ❞❡ ❧♦♥❣✉❡✉rs
▲✱ ✉♥❡ ❞✬❛❝ ❤❛t ❡t ✉♥❡ ❞❡ ✈ ❡♥ t❡✱ q✉✐ s♦♥ t ❞❛♥s ❞❡s sér✐❡s ❞❡ t ②♣ ❡ [a1,a2,..,aL] ❡t
[v1,..vL]✳ ▲❡s ♣❛r❛♠❡tr❡s ai ❡tvi ♣ ❡✉✈ ❡♥ t ♣r❡♥❞r❡ ❧❡s ✈ ❛❧❡✉rs ④✐♥❞✐✛ér❡♥ t❡✱ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡✱
♥é❣❛t✐✈ ❡⑥✳ ❈❤❛q✉❡ r❡❣❧❡ ❡st ❝♦♠♣❛ré ❛ ✈ ❡❝ ❧❛ r❡♥ t❛❜✐❧✐té ♣❛ssé❡✱ ai ♦✉vi ❡st ❝♦♠♣❛r❡
❛ ✈ ❡❝Rt−i+1 ✳ ◗✉❛♥❞ ✉♥❡ r❡❣❧❡ ❞✬❛❝ ❤❛t✴✈ ❡♥ t❡ ❡st ❛❝t✐✈ é❡ ❧❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st❡ ✈ ❛ ❛❝ ❤❡t❡r✴✈ ❡♥✲
❞r❡ s❡s ❛❝t✐❢s ❛✉ ♣r✐① Pt∗(1±N(µc,σc)) s♦♥ t ❞❡s ♣❛r❛♠❡tr❡s q✉✐ ❝❛r❛❝tér✐s❡♥ t ❧❡s
❡s♣ ér❛♥❝❡s ❞❡ ❣❛✐♥s ❞❡s ❝ ❤❛rt✐st❡s✳ ✸ ❛r ❡①❡♠♣❧❡✱ ❧❛ r❡❣❧❡ ❞✬❛❝ ❤❛t ❬♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡✱ ✐♥❞✐❢✲
❢ér❡♥ t✱ ♥❡❣❛t✐❢ ❪ ✈ ❛ ❡tr❡ ❛❝t✐✈ é❡✱ ❡t ❧❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st❡ ✈ ❛ ❛❝ ❤❡t❡r✱ q✉❛♥❞ ❧❡s r❡♥ t❛❜✐❧✐tés
♣❛ssé ✈ ♦♥ t ❡tr❡ ❞✉ t ②♣ ❡ [Rt>0,Rt−2<0] ✳
▲❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ✈ ♦♥ t ❡♥ ✈ ♦ ② ❡r ❧❡✉rs ♦r❞r❡s✱ ♣ ❡♥❞❛♥ t ✉♥❡ ♣ ér✐♦ ❞❡ ❞❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣✱ ❡t
❝❡❧❧❡s✲❝✐ ✈ ♦♥ t ❡tr❡ ❡♥r❡❣✐strés ❞❛♥s ✉♥ ❝❛r♥❡t ❞✬♦r❞r❡✳ ❆ ❧❛ ✜♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣ ér✐♦ ❞❡ ❞❡
tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❧❡ ❝❛r♥❡t ❞✬♦r❞r❡ ❡st ❢❡r♠é ❡t ❧❡ ♥♦✉✈ ❡❛✉① ♣r✐① ❞❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é ❡st ❞é❝♦✉✈ ❡rt✳ ❈❡
♣r✐① ❡st tr♦✉✈ é ❛ ❧❛ s✉✐t❡ ❞✬✉♥❡ ♣r♦ ❝é❞✉r❡ q✉✐ ❝♦♥s✐st❡ ❛ ❞ét❡r♠✐♥❡r ❧❡ ♣r✐① q✉✐ ✿
✶✳ ▼❛①✐♠✐s❡ ❧❡ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ❞❡s tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥s rés♦❧✉
✷✳ ▼✐♥✐♠✐s❡ ❧❡ ♥♦♠ ❜r❡ ❞❡s tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥s ♥♦♥ rés♦❧✉ ❛ ❧❛ ✈ ❡♥ t❡ ♦✉ ❛ ❧✬❛❝ ❤❛t
✸✳ ▼✐♥✐♠✐s❡ ❧❛ ♣r❡ss✐♦♥ ❞❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é s♦✐t ❛ ❧❛ ✈ ❡♥ t❡ s♦✐t ❛ ❧✬❛❝ ❤❛t✳ ❈❡tt❡ ♠ét❤♦ ❞❡
❛ss✉r❡ q✉✬✉♥ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ❞✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❡st ✐♥ té❣ré ❞❛♥s ❧❡ ♣r✐① ❡t ❝❡tt❡ ❞❡r♥✐❡r❡
♥✬✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉✐t ♣❛s ❞❡s ❜✐❛✐s s✉♣♣❧é♠❡♥ t❛✐r❡s✳
❉❛♥s ❝ ❤❛q✉❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❧❡s ❞♦♥♥é❡s ❞✬❡♥ tré❡ s♦♥ t r❡♣rés❡♥ té❡s ♣❛r q✉❡❧q✉❡s
♣❛r❛♠❡tr❡s ❝❛r❛❝tér✐st✐q✉❡s ✿
✶✳ ❧❡ ♥♦♠ ❜r❡ ❡t ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❞❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❡♥ tr❡ ❧❡s ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t❡s t ②♣ ❡s
✷✳ ❧❡ ♥♦♠ ❜r❡ ❞❡ ❥♦✉rs ❞❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥
✸✳ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈ ❛❧❡✉r ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧❡ ❞❡ ❧✬❛❝t✐❢ RFt∼N(µV,σV)

✼
✹✳ ❧✬✐♥ t❡r✈ ❛❧❧❡ ❞❡s ❜✐❛✐s ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡s ❞❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛✉① ax∈[amin,amax]
❡tbx∈[bmin,bmax]
✺✳ ❧✬✐♥ t❡r✈ ❛❧❧❡ ❞❡s r❡♥ t❛❜✐❧✐té ♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠ ❡s♣ éré❡ rx,min∈[rmin,rmax]
✻✳ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❞❡s ❡s♣ ér❛♥❝❡s ❞❡s ❣❛✐♥s ❞❡s ❝ ❤❛rt✐st❡s ❛ ✈ ❡❝ ♠♦ ② ❡♥♥❡ µc∈
[µmin,µmax] ❡t ✈ ❛r✐❛♥❝❡ σc∈[σmin,σmax]✳
◆♦tr❡ ♦✉t✐❧ ❞❡ r❡❝ ❤❡r❝ ❤❡✱ ❧❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡✉r ❞❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤és ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡rs ❞é♥♦♠♠é ▲❯▼❆✱
♥♦✉s s❡rt ❛ ❡①♣❧✐q✉❡r ❧❡s ❧✐❡♥s ❞❡ ❝❛✉s❛❧✐té ❡♥ tr❡ ❧❡s ❞✐✛ér❡♥ t❡s str❛té❣✐❡s ❞❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐s✲
s❡✉rs ❡t ❧❛ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡s ♣r✐① ❞❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é✳
◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ❞❡ r ❡ ❝❤❡r ❝❤❡ ★✶ ✿ ◗✉❡❧ ❧❡ ❡st ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❞❡s str ❛té ❣✐❡s
❞✬✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡♠❡♥t q✉✐ ♣ ❡✉✈❡♥t ♣r ♦ ❞✉✐r ❡✱ ♣ ♦✉r ❞❡ ❧♦♥❣✉❡s ♣ ér✐♦ ❞❡s✱ ❞❡s ♣r✐① ❜✐❛✐sés❄
❈❡tt❡ ♣r❡♠✐❡r❡ q✉❡st✐♦♥ ❞❡ r❡❝ ❤❡r❝ ❤❡ ♣ ♦rt❡ s✉r ❧❛ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐té q✉✬✉♥ ♠❛r❝ ❤é ♣ ❡✉t
r❡st❡r ❞❛♥s ✉♥ ét❛t ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♣ ❡♥❞❛♥ t ❞❡s ❧♦♥❣✉❡s ♣ ér✐♦ ❞❡s✱ ♠❡♠❡ ❛ ✈ ❡❝ ❧❛ ♣rés❡♥❝❡
❞✬✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs r❛t✐♦♥♥❡❧s ❡t ♣❛r❢❛✐t❡♠❡♥ t ✐♥❢♦r♠és✳ P ♦✉r ♣ré✈ ❡♥✐r ❧❡s é✈ ❡♥ t✉❡❧❧❡s
❝r✐t✐q✉❡s ❞✬❡✣❝✐❡♥❝❡✱ ♥♦✉s ♥♦✉s s♦♠♠❡s é❣❛❧❡♠❡♥ t ❞❡♠❛♥❞é s✐ ✉♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉r ❜✐❛✐sé
♣ ❡✉t s✉r✈✐✈r❡ ❞❛♥s ✉♥ ♠❛r❝ ❤é ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡r✳ ❙✐ ❧✬♦♥ tr♦✉✈ ❡ q✉✬✐❧ ♣ ❡✉t s✉r✈✐✈r❡✱ tr❡s
❧♦♥❣t❡♠♣s✱ ❛❧♦rs ♥♦✉s ❛ ✈ ♦♥s ❧❡s ❜❛s❡s ♣ ♦✉r ❞✐s❝✉t❡r ❞✬✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝❡ ❞❡s ♠❛r❝ ❤és✳
◆♦✉s ❛ ✈ ♦♥s ❞é❝♦✉✈ ❡rt q✉❡ ❧❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❜✐❛✐sés ♣ ❡✉✈ ❡♥ t ❝ré❡r ✉♥ ♠❛r❝ ❤é ❛ ✈ ❡❝
❞❡s ♣r✐① ❜✐❛✐sés ♣ ❡♥❞❛♥ t ❞❡ ❧♦♥❣✉❡s ♣ ér✐♦ ❞❡s ❞❡ t❡♠♣s✳ ❊♥ ❢♦♥❝t✐♦♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥
❞❡s ❜✐❛✐s ❞❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs✱ ❧❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é ♣ ❡✉t ❛ ✈ ♦✐r ❞❡s ♣r✐① s✉r ♦✉ s♦✉s é✈ ❛❧✉és ❛ ✈ ❡❝
❞❡s ♠❛❣♥✐t✉❞❡s ♣❧✉s ♦✉ ♠♦✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t❡s✳ ▲❛ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ♥é❝❡ss❛✐r❡✱ ❛✜♥ ❞✬❛ ✈ ♦✐r ✉♥
♠❛r❝ ❤é ❛ ✈ ❡❝ ❞❡s ♣r✐① ❜✐❛✐sés ❡st q✉❡ ❧❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❛ ✈ ❡❝ ❞❡s ❜✐❛✐s ♣ ❡✉✈ ❡♥ t ❞ét❡♥✐r
❧❛ ♣❧✉♣❛rt ❞❡s ❛❝t✐❢s ❡♥ ❝✐r❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥ s✉r ❧❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é✳
◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ❞❡ r ❡ ❝❤❡r ❝❤❡ ★✷ ✿ ❯♥ ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉r ❜✐❛✐sé ♣ ❡✉t✲✐❧ s✉r✈✐✈r ❡ ❞❛♥s ✉♥
♠❛r ❝❤é ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡r❄
◆♦s rés✉❧t❛ts ♠♦♥ tr❡♥ t q✉❡ ❧❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❜✐❛✐sés ♣ ❡✉✈ ❡♥ t s✉r✈✐✈r❡✱ ♣ ❡♥❞❛♥ t
❧♦♥❣t❡♠♣s✱ ❞❛♥s ❧❡s ♠❛r❝ ❤és✳ ș❧ ❡st ❝❡♣ ❡♥❞❛♥ t ♥é❝❡ss❛✐r❡ q✉❡ ❧❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é ♥❡ r❡tr♦✉✈ ❡✱
tr♦♣ s♦✉✈ ❡♥ t✱ s♦♥ ét❛t ❞✬❡✣❝✐❡♥❝❡✳
◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ❞❡ r ❡ ❝❤❡r ❝❤❡ ★✸ ✿ ▲ ❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❜✐❛✐sés ♣ ❡✉✈❡♥t✲✐❧s ❣❛❣♥❡r ❞❛✲
✈❛♥t❛❣❡ q✉❡ ❧❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ♥♦♥ ❜✐❛✐sés ❄
❙✐ ❧✬✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉r ❜✐❛✐sé ♣ ❡✉t s✉r✈✐✈r❡ ❡t ❧❡s ♠❛r❝ ❤és ♣ ❡✉t ❡tr❡ ❜✐❛✐sés ❛❧♦rs ♦♥
♣ ❡✉t s❡ ❞❡♠❛♥❞❡r s✐ ❞❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❜✐❡♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠és ♦♥ t ✐♥ tér❡t ❛ ♣❛ ② ❡r ♣ ♦✉r ✉♥❡
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝♦rr❡❝t❡✳ ❙✐ ♦♥ tr♦✉✈ ❡ q✉❡ ❧✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝♦rr❡❝t❡ ♥✬❡st t♦✉❥♦✉rs ♣❛s
r❡♥ t❛❜❧❡ ❛❧♦rs ❝♦♠♠❡♥ t ♣ ❡✉t✲♦♥ ❡s♣ ér❡r q✉✬✉♥ ♠❛r❝ ❤é ♣ ❡✉t ❡tr❡✱ ❛✉tr❡♠❡♥ t q✉❡ ♣❛r
❛❝❝✐❞❡♥ t✱ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t❄
❊♥ ❡✛❡t✱ ♥♦✉s ♦❜s❡r✈ ♦♥s q✉❡ ❧♦rsq✉❡ ❧❡s ❛❝t✐❢s s♦♥ t s✉ré✈ ❛❧✉és ❛❧♦rs ❧❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐s✲
s❡✉rs ❜✐❡♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠és ✈ ♦♥ t ❛ ✈ ♦✐r t❡♥❞❛♥❝❡ ❛ ❧❡s ✈ ❡♥❞r❡✳ ❙✐ ❧❡s ♣r✐① r❡st❡♥ t é❧❡✈ és✱ ❧❡s
✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❜✐❡♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠é❡s ✈ ♦♥ t ♣ ❡r❞r❡ ❧❡s r❡♥ t❛❜✐❧✐tés q✉✬✐❧s ♣ ♦✉✈ ❛✐❡♥ t ❛ ✈ ♦✐r ❡♥
❣❛r❞❛♥ t ❧✬❛❝t✐❢✳

✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✶✳ ❘❡s✉♠❡ ❞❡ t❤❡s❡
◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ❞❡ r ❡ ❝❤❡r ❝❤❡ ★✹ ✿ ◗✉❡❧ ❧❡s s♦♥t ❧❡s ❝ ♦♠♣ ♦rt❡♠❡♥ts ❞❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐s✲
s❡✉rs ❛ ❧✬ ♦r✐❣✐♥❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡ ❜✉❧ ❧❡s ❡t ❞❡s ❡✛❡ts st②❧✐sés ❄
❉❛♥s ✉♥ ♠❛r❝❤é ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡r ♥♦✉s ♦❜s❡r✈♦♥s✱ ♣❡✉t✲❡tr❡ tr♦♣ s♦✉✈❡♥t✱ ❞❡s
♣❤é♥♦♠❡♥❡s ✐♠♣♦ss✐❜❧❡s ❛ ❡①♣❧✐q✉❡r ❛✈❡❝ ❧❡s ❝♦♥❝❡♣ts t❤é♦r✐q✉❡s ❝❧❛ss✐q✉❡s✳ ❥❛r♠✐
❡✉①✱ ♥♦✉s r❡❣❛r❞♦♥s ❞❡ ♣rés ❧❡s ❡✛❡ts ❞❡s ❛✉t♦❝♦r❡❧❧❛t✐♦♥s ♥♦♥ ❧✐♥é❛✐r❡s ❞❡s ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐tés
✭♦✉ ❧❛ ❧♦♥❣✉❡ ♠é♠♦✐r❡ ❞❡s ♠❛r❝❤és✮ ❡t ❧❡s ❜✉❧❧❡s ❞❡s ♣r✐①✳ ❊st✲❝❡ q✉❡ ❝❡s ♣❤é♥♦♠❡♥❡s
s♦♥t ❞❡s ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥ts ♦✉ ♦♥t✲✐❧s ❧❡✉rs r❛❝✐♥❡s ❝❛✉s❛❧❡s ❞❛♥s ❧❡s ❞✐✛ér❡♥t❡s str❛té❣✐❡s ❞❡s
✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❄
❖♥ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ q✉❡ ❧❡s ❢❛✐ts st②❧✐sés ♣❡✉✈❡♥t ❡tr❡ ❝ré❡s ❞❛♥s ✉♥ ♠❛r❝❤é ❛✈❡❝ ❞❡s
❞✐✛ér❡♥t❡s ♣r♦♣♦rt✐♦♥s ❞✬✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❜✐❡♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠és ❡t ❞✬✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❜✐❛✐sés✳ ▼❛✐s
❝❡s ❡✛❡ts s♦♥t ❛✉ss✐ ✈✐s✐❜❧❡s q✉❛♥❞ ❞❛♥s ✉♥ ♠❛r❝❤é ✐❧ ② ❛ q✉❡ ❞❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❜✐❡♥
✐♥❢♦r♠és✱ ♠❛✐s ❛✈❡❝ ❞❡s ❞é❧❛✐s ❞✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳
◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ❞❡ r ❡ ❝❤❡r ❝❤❡ ★✺ ✿ ❊st✲❝ ❡ q✉❡ ❧❡ ❙ș❚❍ ♣ ❡✉t ❜ ❛ttr ❡ ❨❖❉ ❆ ❄ ◗✉✐ ✈❛
s✉r✈✐✈r ❡ ❧❡ ♣❧✉s ❄
❈❡tt❡ ❞❡r♥✐❡r❡ q✉❡st✐♦♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❡r❝❤❡ r❡ss♦rt ♥❛t✉r❡❧❧❡♠❡♥t ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡s ♣r❡♠✐❡rs
rés✉❧t❛ts✳ ❙✐ ❧❡s ♠❛r❝❤és ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡rs r❡st❡♥t ❜✐❛✐sés ♣❡♥❞❛♥t ❞❡ ❧♦♥❣✉❡s ❞✉ré❡s ❛❧♦rs
❧❛ ❜♦♥♥❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ é❝♦♥♦♠✐q✉❡ ♥✬❛ ♣❛s ❢♦r❝❡♠❡♥t ❛♣♣♦rté❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡♥t❛❜✐❧✐té✳ ❙✐
❞❡s ❜✉❧❧❡s s♣é❝✉❧❛t✐✈❡s ♣❡✉✈❡♥t ❡tr❡ ❝réé❡s✱ ♠❡♠❡ ❡♥ ♣rés❡♥❝❡ ❞✬✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❜✐❡♥
✐♥❢♦r♠és✱ ❛❧♦rs ❝❡s ❞❡r♥✐❡rs ♣❡✉✈❡♥t✲✐❧s ❡♥ ♣r♦✜t❡r ❄ ❯♥ ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉r ❜✐❡♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠é
✈ ❛✱ ♥♦r♠❛❧❡♠❡♥t✱ ✈❡♥❞r❡ s❡s ❛❝t✐❢s r✐sq✉és ❞❡s q✉✬✐❧s s♦♥t s✉ré✈ ❛❧✉és✳ ❆✐♥s✐✱ ✐❧ ♣❡✉t
♣❡r❞r❡ ❧❛ ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐té ❞❡ s♣é❝✉❧❡r s✉r ✉♥❡ ❜✉❧❧❡✳ ◆♦✉s ❛✈♦♥s ❝♦♥ç✉ ✉♥❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉r✱
❜✐❡♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠é✱ q✉✐ ♣❡✉t ✈♦❧♦♥t❛✐r❡♠❡♥t ❝❤❛♥❣❡r ❡♥tr❡ ✉♥❡ str❛té❣✐❡ ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧❡
✭❛♣♣❡❧é ❨❖❉❆✮ ❡t ✉♥❡ str❛té❣✐❡ ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠é❡ ✈✐s❛♥t ❛ ♦❜t❡♥✐r ❧❡ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❞❡ ♣r♦✜t✳
❖♥ ❛♣♣❡❧❧❡ ❝❡t ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉r ❙ș❚❍ ❝❛r✱ ♠❡♠❡ s✬✐❧ s❛✐t q✉✬✉♥ ❛❝t✐❢ ❡st s✉ré✈ ❛❧✉é✱ ✐❧ ♣❡✉t
♠❡♠❡ ❛❧✐♠❡♥t❡r ✉♥ tr❡♥❞ ❞❡ ♣r✐① ❝r♦✐ss❛♥t✳ ❙♦♥ s❡✉❧ ✐♥tér❡t ❡st ❧❡ ♣r♦✜t ❡t ❧✬❡✣❝✐❡♥❝❡
❞❡ ♠❛r❝❤é ♥✬❡st ♣❛s ✉♥❡ ❞❡ s❡s ♣r✐♦r✐tés✳
◆♦s rés✉❧t❛ts ♠♦♥tr❡♥t q✉❡ ❧❡ ❙ș❚❍ ♣❡✉t t✐r❡r ♣❧✉s ❞❡ ♣r♦✜t q✉❡ ❧✬✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉r
❨❖❉❆✳ ❈❡tt❡ ❞✐✛ér❡♥❝❡ ✈✐❡♥t ❞✉ ❢❛✐t q✉❡ ❧❡ ❙ș❚❍ ✈ ❛ ♣r❡♥❞r❡✱ ❞❡ t❡♠♣s ❡♥ t❡♠♣s✱
❞❡ ❧✬❛r❣❡♥t ♣r♦✈❡♥❛♥t ❞❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❜✐❛✐sés ♦✉ ❝❤❛rt✐st❡s✳
◆♦tr❡ tr❛✈ ❛✐❧ ♥♦✉s ❛♠❡♥❡ ❛ ❝♦♥❝❧✉r❡ q✉❡ ❧❡s ♠❛r❝❤és ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡rs✱ t❡❧s q✉✬✐❧s s♦♥t
❛✉❥♦✉r❞✬❤✉✐✱ s♦♥t ❞❡s ❝♦♥❝♦✉rs ❞❡ ❜❡❛✉té✳ ❈❡tt❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ❡st s✉♣♣♦rté❡ ♣❛r ❧❡
❢❛✐t q✉✬✉♥ ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉r ❛✈❡❝ ❧✬✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❢❛✐t❡ ♣❡✉t ❣❛❣♥❡r ♠♦✐♥s q✉✬✉♥ ❛✉tr❡
✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉r✱ ❛✈❡❝ ❧❛ ♠❡♠❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ q✉✬✐❧ ✈ ❛ ❡ss❛②❡r ❞✬✐♠✐t❡r ❞✬❛✉tr❡s str❛té❣✐❡s
✭q✉❛♥❞ ❝❡❧❧❡s✲❝✐ ✈♦♥t ❞♦♠✐♥❡r ❧❛ ♠❛r❝❤é✮✳ ❆✐♥s✐ ♦♥ ✈♦✐t q✉✬✐❧ ♥✬② ❛ ♣❛s t♦✉❥♦✉rs
❞✬✐♥tér❡t ❛ s♣é❝✉❧❡r ❡♥ ❢❛✈❡✉r ❞✬✉♥ ♣r✐① ❞❡ ♠❛r❝❤é ❝♦rr❡❝t ✭r❡❧❛t✐✈❡♠❡♥t ❛✉① ❢♦♥✲
❞❛♠❡♥t❛✉① é❝♦♥♦♠✐q✉❡s ❞❡ ❧✬❛❝t✐❢ s♦✉s✲❥❛❝❡♥t✮✳ ❥♦✉r t✐r❡r ❧❡ ♣❧✉s ❞❡ ♣r♦✜t✱ ❧❡s
✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❞♦✐✈❡♥t ✉t✐❧✐s❡r ❡t ♣r♦✜t❡r ❞❡s str❛té❣✐❡s ❞♦♠✐♥❛♥t❡s✳
◆♦✉s ♣♦st✉❧♦♥s ❧❛ t❤é♦r✐❡ ❞❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤és ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡r❡s ♣❛r❢♦✐s ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t❡s ✳ ❙❡❧♦♥
♥♦tr❡ t❤❡♦r✐❡✱ ❧❡s ♠❛r❝❤és ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡rs s❡ tr♦✉✈❡♥t ❞❛♥s ✉♥ ♠♦✉✈❡♠❡♥t ❝♦♥t✐♥✉ ❡♥tr❡
❞❡✉① ét❛ts ❞✬éq✉✐❧✐❜r❡ ✐♥st❛❜❧❡ ✿ ✉♥ ét❛t ❞✬❡✣❝✐❡♥❝❡ ❡t ✉♥ ét❛t ❞✬✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡
✭❧❡ ♣r✐① ❞❡ ♠❛r❝❤é ❛ ❛❧♦rs ❛✉❝✉♥❡ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈❡ ❛✈❡❝ ❧❡s ❢♦♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛✉① ❞✬❛❝t✐❢

✾
s♦✉s✲❥❛❝❡♥ t✮✳ ❈❡ ♠♦✉✈ ❡♠❡♥ t ❡st ❝❛✉sé ♣❛r ❧❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐ss❡✉rs ❝ ❤❡r❝ ❤❛♥ t ❞❡s ♣r♦✜ts
s✉♣♣❧é♠❡♥ t❛✐r❡s ❡t ❛❞❛♣t❛♥ t ❧❡✉rs str❛té❣✐❡s ✭♣❧✉s ♦✉ ♠♦✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠é❡s ❡♥ ❢♦♥❝t✐♦♥ ❞✉
❝♦♥ t❡①t❡ ❞❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é✮✳ ❙✉✐t❡ ❛ ❝❡tt❡ t❤❡♦r✐❡✱ ♥♦✉s ♣r♦♣ ♦s♦♥s ❝♦♠♠❡ ♥♦✉✈ ❡❛✉ ♠❡s✉r❡
❞❡ r✐sq✉❡ ❧❡ ♥✐✈ ❡❛✉ ❞✬❡✣❝✐❡♥❝❡ ❞✬✉♥ ♠❛r❝ ❤é✳ ❈❡ ♥✐✈ ❡❛✉ ❞✬❡✣❝✐❡♥❝❡ ❞❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é ♣ ❡✉t
❡tr❡ ♠❡s✉ré✱ ✐♥❞✐r❡❝t❡♠❡♥ t ❡t ❛ ✈ ❡❝ ❧✬❛✐❞❡ ❞❡s s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡✉rs ❞❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é✱ ❡♥ ❡st✐♠❛♥ t ❧❡s
♣r♦♣ ♦rt✐♦♥s r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡s ❞❡s ❞✐✛ér❡♥ t❡s str❛té❣✐❡s ✉t✐❧✐sé❡s ❞❛♥s ❧❡ ♠❛r❝ ❤é✳

❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷
ș♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥
❈♦♥t❡♥ts
✷✳✶ ❈♦♥ t❡①t ❛♥❞ ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶
✷✳✷ ș♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❝♦♥❝❡♣ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹
✷✳✸ ❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s t❤❡② ❝❛✉s❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻
✷✳✹ ❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✈s✳ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽
✷✳✺ ❘❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✵
✷✳✻ ❘❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ▼❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✶
✷✳✼ ❆ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✱ ❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❧✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤✐s st✉❞② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✸
✷✳✽ ❘❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ❛♥❞ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✺
✷✳✽✳✶ ❲❤❛t ✐s ❛♥ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r❄ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✻
✷✳✽✳✷ ❆r❡ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♣r❡s❡♥ t ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts❄ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✼
✷✳✾ ❆ ✈ ❡r② s❤♦rt ❤✐st♦r② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✾
✷✳✶✵ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✵
✷✳✶ ❈♦♥t❡①t ❛♥❞ ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t✐♦♥
❚❤❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ✷✵✵✽✲✷✵✶✷ ♦✛❡rs ❛ ❧❛♥❞s❝❛♣❡ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝r✐s✐s✿ ❢r♦♠ ❞❡❜t ❝r✐s✐s t♦ ❜❛♥❦
❝r✐s✐s ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ✇✐t❤ st❛t❡ ❞❡❜t ❝r✐s✐s✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❡✈❡♥ts ✇❡r❡ ❡♥❝♦✉r❛❣❡❞ ❛♥❞ s✉st❛✐♥❡❞ ❜②
♣♦❧✐t✐❝❛❧✱ ❧❡❣❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❢❛❝t♦rs ❜✉t t❤❡② ✇❡r❡ ❞✐r❡❝t❧② ❝❛✉s❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥t
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳
❚❤❡ ❡♣✐❝ ❢❛❧❧ ♦❢ ▲❡❤♠❛♥ ❇r♦t❤❡rs ❜❛♥❦✶✱ ✐♥ ❆✉❣✉st ✷✵✵✼✱ r❡✈❡❛❧❡❞ t❤❡ s②st❡♠✐❝
❢r❛❣✐❧✐t② ♦❢ t❤❡ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s②st❡♠✳ ❚❤❡ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ❜❛♥❦✐♥❣ s②st❡♠ s✉✛❡r❡❞ ✐♠♣♦r✲
t❛♥t ✇r✐t❡✲❞♦✇♥s ❛♥❞ ❧❡❛❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥st✐t✉t✐♦♥s ♦♥ t❤❡ ❜r✐♥❦ ♦❢ ❜❛♥❦r✉♣t❝② ✳ ❇❛♥❦s
t❤❛t t♦♦❦ t♦♦ ♠✉❝❤ r✐s❦ ❛♥❞ ❧♦st ✇❡r❡ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ t♦ ✜❧❡ ❢♦r ❜❛♥❦r✉♣t❝② ✳ ș♥ ♠♦st
❝♦✉♥tr✐❡s✱ t❤❡ ❜❛♥❦r✉♣t❝② ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ♠❛✐♥ ❜❛♥❦s ✐♠♣❧✐❡❞ ❛ t❡♠♣♦r❛r② s②st❡♠✐❝ ❞✐s✲
tr❡ss t♦ t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠② ✲ ❞✉❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝② ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡s ♦♥ t❤❡ r❡✈♦❧✈✐♥❣ ❧✐♥❡s
♦❢ ❝r❡❞✐ts ♦✛❡r❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ❜❛♥❦✐♥❣ s❡❝t♦r✳ ✬❚ ♦♦ ❜✐❣ t♦ ❢❛✐❧✬ ❜❛♥❦s ❛r❡ s❛✈❡❞ ❢r♦♠
❜❛♥❦r✉♣t❝② ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❛✐❞ ♦❢ st❛t❡ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧✳ ❙t❛t❡ s♣♦♥s♦rs❤✐♣ ❤❛s ❡♥❞❡❞ t❤❡ ❜❛♥❦✐♥❣
✶❋✐♥❞ ✐♥ t❤✐s ❧✐♥❦ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡s t♦ ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ❥✉❞✐❝✐❛❧ r❡♣ ♦rt ♦♥ t❤❡ ❜❛♥❦r✉♣t❝② ♦❢ t❤❡
▲❡❤♠❛♥ ❇r♦t❤❡rs ❜❛♥❦ ✲ ❤ tt♣✿✴✴❜❧♦❣s✳✇s❥✳❝♦♠✴❞❡❛❧s✴✷✵✶✵✴✵✸✴✶✶✴❧❡❤♠❛♥✲❜r♦t❤❡rs✲❤❡r❡s✲❛✲❝♦♣ ②✲
♦❢✲t❤❡✲❝♦✉rt✲❡①❛♠✐♥❡rs✲r❡♣ ♦rt✴

✶✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥
❝r✐s✐s ❜ ② ❛ s✉❜t❧❡ tr❛♥s❢❡r ♦❢ r✐s❦✿ ❢r♦♠ ❜❛♥❦s t♦ st❛t❡s✳ ❙✐♥❝❡ ✷✵✶✵ ❝♦✉♥ tr✐❡s ❤❛ ✈ ❡
s✉✛❡r❡❞ ❢r♦♠ ❛ s♦ ✈ ❡r❡✐❣♥ ❞❡❜t ❝r✐s✐s t❤❛t s♣✐❧❧❡❞ ✐ts ❡✛❡❝ts ✐♥ t♦ ♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❡s✳
❈♦✉♥ tr✐❡s ❧✐❦ ❡ ❙♣❛✐♥✱ șt❛❧② ✱ ❇ ♦rt✉❣❛❧✱ șr❡❧❛♥❞ ❛♥❞ ●r❡❡❝❡ ❡①♣ ❡r✐❡♥❝❡ ❤✐❣❤ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ♦❢
✉♥❡♠♣❧♦ ②♠❡♥ t ❛♥❞ ❧❛❝ ❦ ❛❝❝❡ss t♦ ❝r❡❞✐ts ❛t ❛✛♦r❞❛❜❧❡ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❚❤❡ ✧ r✐s❦✲❢r❡❡✧ st❛t❡
❛ss❡t ✐s ❝ ❤❛❧❧❡♥❣❡❞ ❛♥❞ ✐ts s♦ ❝✐❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❡✛❡❝ts ❛r❡ ② ❡t t♦ ✉♥❢♦❧❞✳
❆ ❝ ❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❣r❛ ✈✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝✉rr❡♥ t ❡✈ ❡♥ ts✱ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ ❞✉t ② t♦
✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❛♥❞ ♣r❡✈ ❡♥ t t❤❡ s②st❡♠✐❝ ❝❛✉s❡s t❤❛t ❧❡❛❞ t♦ s✉❝ ❤ ❝r✐s✐s✳ ❚❤❡ ❡①♣r❡ss✐♦♥
✬s✉❜♣r✐♠❡ ❝r✐s✐s✬ ✐s ❛❞✈ ❡rt✐s❡❞ ❛s ❛ s✉✐t❛❜❧❡ ❝✉❧♣r✐t ❢♦r t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❧❞✬s ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❛♥❞
❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❡✈ ❡♥ ts✳ ❚❤✐s ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥ r❡❢❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦❢ ♠❛ss✐✈ ❡ ✬s✉❜♣r✐♠❡✬
❞❡❜t ✐♥s♦❧✈ ❡♥❝② ✳ ș♥s♦❧✈ ❡♥❝② ✐s ❝♦♠♠♦♥ t♦ ❡✈ ❡r② ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✐ts ❝♦st ✐s
r❡✢❡❝t❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❋ ♦r s✉❜♣r✐♠❡ ❞❡❜t✱ t❤❡s❡ ❝♦sts ✇ ❡r❡ r❡✢❡❝t❡❞ ✐♥ ❧♦ss❡s
❛♥❞ ♥♦t ✐♥ ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❚❤❡ ❝❛t❛❧②st ❢♦r t❤❡ ❡♥♦r♠♦✉s ❣r♦ ✇t❤ ♦❢ s✉❜♣r✐♠❡ ❞❡❜t
♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❢♦✉♥❞ ✐♥ ❯❙ ❧❛ ✇s ❞❡s✐❣♥❡❞ t♦ ❡♥❛❜❧❡ t❤❡ ❆♠❡r✐❝❛♥ ❞r❡❛♠ t♦ t❤❡
❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❆♠❡r✐❝❛♥✳ ❍✐st♦r② ♦✛❡rs ❝♦✉♥ t❧❡ss ❡①❛♠♣❧❡s ♦❢ ❧❛ ✇s✱ ❞❡s✐❣♥❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ♥♦❜❧❡
✐♥ t❡♥ t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ❢❛✐t❤✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✉❧t✐♠❛t❡❧② ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♣r❡❞❛t♦r② ❛♥❞ ❝♦✉♥ t❡r✲❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞
❡✛❡❝ts✳ ❚❤❡ ❯❙ ❈♦♠♠ ✉♥✐t ② ❘❡✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❆ ❝t ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ t❤❡ ❧❡❣❛❧ ✐♥❝❡♥ t✐✈ ❡s ❢♦r
s✉❜♣r✐♠❡ ❞❡❜ts✳ ❚❤❡ ❯❙ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s②st❡♠ ❡①♣❧♦✐t❡❞ t❤✐s ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t ② ✳
❘❛♣✐❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❧❡❞ t♦ ❛ ❤♦✉s✐♥❣ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ❛♥❞ ❛♥ ❛♠♣❧✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ s✉❜♣r✐♠❡
❞❡❜t✳ ❊①♣ ♦rt✐♥❣ t❤✐s ❞❡❜t ✇ ❛s t❤❡ ♥❡①t st❡♣ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❯❙ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s②st❡♠✳ ●❧♦❜❛❧
❝♦♥ t❛❣✐♦♥ ❜ ② s✉❜♣r✐♠❡ ❞❡❜t ✇ ❛s ❡♥❛❜❧❡❞ ❜ ② t ✇ ♦ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✿
✶✳ ❚❤❡ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✬s✉❜♣r✐♠❡✬ ❞❡❜t ✐♥ t♦ s❡❧❧❛❜❧❡ ❛ss❡ts ✭❆❇❙✮
✷✳ ❚❤❡ ❛❝q✉✐s✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ❛ss❡t ❜❛s❡❞ s❡❝✉r✐t✐❡s ❜ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❢r♦♠ ♦✉ts✐❞❡ t❤❡
❯♥✐t❡❞ ❙t❛t❡s✱ ❛t ♦ ✈ ❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡s✳
❈♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ✶✮ ✐s ❛ ♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❧❡❣❛❧ ♠❛tt❡r✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✬✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥♥♦ ✈ ❛t✐♦♥✬✱ ❛♥❞ ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡
❝❛t❛❧②st ❢♦r ❝♦♥ t❛❣✐♦♥✳ ❈♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ✷✮ ✐s r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②
♦❢ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❆ ❝q✉✐r✐♥❣ ❛♥ ② ❛ss❡t✱ ♥♦ ♠❛tt❡r t❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ✐ts ❢✉t✉r❡
❝❛s❤ ✢♦ ✇s✱ ✐s ❛ ❝♦rr❡❝t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ♣❛✐❞ ❥✉st✐✜❡s t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s
❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤ ✢♦ ✇s✳ ●❧♦❜❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♦ ✈ ❡r♣❛✐❞ ❯❙ ❞❡❜t s❡❝✉r✐t✐❡s ❛♥❞ s✉✛❡r❡❞ ❞❡✈✲
❛st❛t✐♥❣ ❧♦ss❡s ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡s❡ ❛ss❡ts s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞ t❤❡✐r r❡❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❜❛❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ ts
❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ✇ ❡r❡ ❡♥❛❜❧❡❞ ❜ ② t ✇ ♦ ❢❛❝t♦rs✿
❆ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❞✐❞ ♥♦t ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ♣r✐❝❡ ❆❇❙ s❡❝✉r✐t✐❡s
❇ ș♥st✐t✉t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❡♥ t❡r❡❞ t❤❡ ❆❇❙ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛♥❞ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ② t♦ ❢✉r✲
t❤❡r ❡♥❛❜❧❡ t❤❡ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ❆✳
❲ ❡ ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ t❤❛t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ❆✱ t❤❡ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❛ss❡t ❜❛❝ ❦ ❡❞ s❡❝✉r✐t✐❡s✱ ✐s t❤❡
❡ss❡♥ t✐❛❧ ❢❛❝t♦r t❤❛t tr✐❣❣❡r❡❞ t❤❡ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ✷✵✵✼ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝r✐s✐s ❛♥❞ ❛❧❧ ♦❢ ✐ts ❝♦♥s❡✲
q✉❡♥❝❡s✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣✱ ✐♥ t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇ ❡r❡ ❡❛❣❡r t♦ ❜✉② ❯❙ ♠♦rt✲
❣❛❣❡ ❜❛❝ ❦ ❡❞ ❆❇❙✳ ❚❤✐s ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❡♥❝♦✉r❛❣❡❞ ❯❙ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥st✐t✉t✐♦♥s t♦ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡
t❤❡✐r ❡✛♦rts t♦ ✇ ❛r❞s t❤❡ ♠♦rt❣❛❣❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❆❧❧ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ ts ✐♥ t❤❡ ❯❙ ❞❡❜t ♠❛r❦ ❡t

✷✳✶✳ ❈♦♥ t❡①t ❛♥❞ ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t✐♦♥ ✶✸
✇❡r❡ ✐♥t❡r❡st❡❞ t♦ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡ ❛ ❤♦✉s❡ ❧♦❛♥ ❛♥❞ t♦ r❡s❡❧❧ ✐t ❢♦r ❛ ❝♦♠♠✐ss✐♦♥✳ ❚❤❡ ❯❙
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s❡❝t♦r ❛❝t❡❞ ❛s ❛♥ ✐♥t❡r♠❡❞✐❛r② ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❞❡❜t ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛♥ts ✭❯✳❙✳ ❢❛♠✐❧✐❡s✮
❛♥❞ t❤❡ ✐♥t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❞❡❜t s❡❧❧❡rs✳ ❊✈❡♥ ✐❢ ❯❙ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡s ❦♥❡✇ t❤❡s❡ ❝r❡❞✐ts
✇♦✉❧❞ ❣♦ ❜❛❞✱ t❤❡② ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❡❞ t❤❡✐r ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❜❡❝❛✉s❡✿ ❛✮ ❯❙ ❧❛✇s ♣❡r♠✐ts s✉❜♣r✐♠❡
❞❡❜t ✭❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ✶✮ ❛♥❞ ❜✮ s✉❝❤ ❞❡❜t ✇❡r❡ s♦❧❞ ✐♥ ✐♥t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✭❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥
❇✮✳ ❆ ❝♦rr❡❝t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❆❇❙ ❞❡❜t ✇♦✉❧❞ ❤❛✈❡ st♦♣♣❡❞ t❤❡ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝r❛s❤
♦❢ t❤❡ ❯❙ ❤♦✉s✐♥❣ ♠❛r❦❡t✳
❲ ❡ ❜❡❧✐❡✈❡ r✐s❦ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ✇❛s t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ✬s✉❜♣r✐♠❡
❝r✐s✐s✬✳ ❨ ❡t✱ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❤❛s ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ❢♦r♠s✿ r❡t✉r♥ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣✱ r✐s❦ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✲
✐♥❣✱ ❡t❝✳ ❚❤❡ ✷✵✵✶ ș❚ ❜✉❜❜❧❡✱s❡❡ ✭ ▼♦rr✐s ❛♥❞ ❆❧❛♠ ✱ ✷✵✶✷ ✮ ❢♦r ❞❡t❛✐❧s✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛❧s♦
♦r✐❣✐♥❛t❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❯♥✐t❡❞ ❙t❛t❡s✱ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ ❛s ❛ ❝❧❡❛r ❝❛s❡ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡t ❢✉t✉r❡
❝❛s❤ ✢♦✇ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣✳ ❙✉❝❤ ❡✈❡♥ts ❤❛✈❡ ❧♦♥❣ ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥s ✭♠❡❛s✉r❛❜❧❡ ✐♥ ②❡❛rs✮ ❛♥❞
✐t ✇♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ❤❛r❞ t♦ ❛r❣✉❡ t❤❛t t❤❡② ❞♦ ♥♦t ✐♥✈ ❛❧✐❞❛t❡ t❤❡ ✐❞❡❛ ♦❢ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡ts✳
❉✉❡ t♦ t❤❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥t ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛♥❞ s♦❝✐❛❧ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s ✇❡
❤❛✈❡ ❞❡✈♦t❡❞ t❤✐s ✇♦r❦ t♦✇❛r❞s s❤❡❞❞✐♥❣ ♠♦r❡ ❧✐❣❤t ❛❜♦✉t ♠❛r❦❡t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s✳
ș♥ t❤✐s t❤❡s✐s✱ ✇❡ s❤♦✇ ❤♦✇ ❛♥❞ ✇❤❡♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ♠✐s♣r✐❝❡ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡
♥✉♠❡r♦✉s st✉❞✐❡s ❧♦♦❦ ❛t ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ❧❡✈❡❧ ❝❛✉s❡s✱ ❧✐❦❡ ♠❛❝r♦ ❡❝♦♥♦♠② ♦r ♣♦❧✐❝✐❡s✱ ✇❡
❢♦❝✉s ♦♥ t❤❡ ❧✐♥❦s ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❛♥❞ ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❖✉r st✉❞②
❞r❛✇s ✐ts t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❢♦✉♥❞❛t✐♦♥s ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ✜❡❧❞ ♦❢ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ❇❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧
✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❝r❡❛t❡s ❛ ❦♥♦✇❧❡❞❣❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞
✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ❆s ❛ t♦♦❧ ❢♦r ❛♥❛❧②s✐s✱ ✇❡ ❞❡s✐❣♥ ❛♥❞ ✉s❡ ❛ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
♠❛r❦❡t s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r✳ ❚❤✐s t♦♦❧ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡s t❤❡ ✢❡①✐❜✐❧✐t② ❛♥❞ ❢r❡❡❞♦♠ t♦ ♠❛❦❡ ❤②♣♦t❤❡s✐s
♦♥ t❤❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❧❡✈❡❧ ❛♥❞ t♦ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝ts ❛t ❛♥ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ❧❡✈❡❧✳
❆s ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ t✐t❧❡ ♦❢ ♦✉r t❤❡s✐s✱ ✇❡ ❧♦♦❦ ❛t ✇❤❡♥ ❛♥❞ ❤♦✇ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❧❡✈❡❧
❜✐❛s❡s ❝❛♥ ❛✛❡❝t t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❇❡❢♦r❡ ✇❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥✱ ✐♥
❞❡♣t❤✱ t❤❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝ts ♦❢ ♦✉r st✉❞② ✇❡ ✇✐❧❧ ✜rst ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ ♥♦t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❜✐❛s ❛♥❞ ❤♦✇ ✐t
r❡❧❛t❡s t♦ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ❆ ✧ ❜✐❛s✧ ✐s ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ❛s ❛ s②st❡♠❛t✐❝ ❞❡♣❛rt✉r❡ ❢r♦♠ ❛ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡
♣♦✐♥t✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t ♦❢ ❜✐❛s ✐s r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥t t♦ t❤❡ ♥❛t✉r❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡ ✐t
♣♦✐♥ts t♦✳ ❲ ❡ ❝❛♥ ❞✐st✐♥❣✉✐s❤ ❛ ❣r❡❛t ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡s ❧✐❦❡ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❜✐❛s✱ s♦❝✐❛❧
❜✐❛s✱ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧ ❜✐❛s✱ ♠❡❛s✉r❡♠❡♥t ❜✐❛s✱ r✐s❦ ❜✐❛s✱ ❡t❝✳ ❲ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❢♦❝✉s ♦♥ ♦♥❡ ✐♥
♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r✱ t❤❡ ♠♦st r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥t t♦ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡s❡❛r❝❤✿ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s✳
ș♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✱ ❛♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❤❛s ❛ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s ✐❢ ❤✐s ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ♥♦t t❤♦s❡ ♦❢ ❛
♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦r✳ ❆ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❝❛♥ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t ❛❧❧
t❤❡ ❛✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞✱ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ❤❡ ❝❛♥ ❞❡❞✉❝❡ t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t
r❛t✐♦♥❛❧❧② ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✳ ❯s✐♥❣ t❤✐s ❝♦rr❡❝t ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦r
tr✐❡s t♦ ♣r♦✜t ✇❤❡♥ ♠❛r❦❡ts ♠✐s♣r✐❝❡ ❛ss❡t✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳✸ ✇❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥
❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳

✶✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥
✷✳✷ ș♠♣♦rt❛♥t ❝♦♥❝❡♣ts
ș♥ t❤❡ ❝♦✉rs❡ ♦❢ t❤✐s t❤❡s✐s ✇ ❡ ✉s❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♣ts t❤❛t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣s✱
❞❡♣ ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ t❤❡ r❡❛❞❡r✬s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥ t❡①t✳ ❚ ♦ ♠✐t✐❣❛t❡ t❤❡ r✐s❦ ♦❢ ♠✐s✐♥✲
t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ✇ ❡ ♣r❡s❡♥ t ❛♥❞ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ❤❡r❡ ♦✉r ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞✐♥❣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦st ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t
❝♦♥❝❡♣ts ✇ ❡ ✉s❡✳
❚❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✱ ♦r ✐♥ tr✐♥s✐❝ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ r❡❢❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ♣r❡s❡♥ t
✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✳ ș♥ ❛ ✉s✉❛❧ ❝♦♥ t❡①t✱ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ✭❧✐❦ ❡ ❛ st♦ ❝ ❦✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ♣r♦ ❥❡❝t ♦r
r❡❛❧✲❡st❛t❡✮ ✐s s✉♣♣ ♦s❡❞ t♦ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ ❝❛s❤✲✢♦ ✇s t♦ ✐t✬s ♦ ✇♥❡r✳ ș♥ r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ✇❤♦ ✉s❡ ✬❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s✬✱ tr② t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✉s✐♥❣ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t❡❞ ❝❛s❤ ✢♦ ✇ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s ✭s❡❡ ❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❛❜ ♦✉t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥✲
t❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t❡❞ ❝❛s❤ ✢♦ ✇s ✐♥ ✭ ●r❛❤❛♠ ❛♥❞ ❉♦ ❞❞ ✱ ✶✾✺✶ ✮✮✳ ș♥ ♦✉r st✉❞②
✇ ❡ r❡❢❡r t♦ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ❛s ❛ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t t❤❛t ❤❡❧♣s
✉s ❜✉✐❧❞ ♦✉r ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳ ❚❤✐s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❤❡❧♣s ✉s ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✢♦ ✇✳
❲❤❡♥ ✇ ❡ ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ❤❛s ❛ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✇ ❡ ❞♦ ♥♦t ♠❛❦ ❡
❛♥ ② ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ♦r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✳
❊✣❝✐❡♥❝② t❤❡♦r② ✐s ❛ ❤✐❣❤❧② ❞❡❜❛t❡❞ s✉❜ ❥❡❝t ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝s✳ ș♥
♦✉r ✇ ♦r❦ ✇ ❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r t❤❡ ✭ ❋ ❛♠❛ ✱ ✶✾✼✵ ✮ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②✿ ✧❆ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝ ❤
♣r✐❝❡s ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ✧❢✉❧❧② r❡✢❡❝t✧ ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t✧✳ ❚❤✐s ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥✱
❛s ✐t ✐s ♦❢t❡♥ r❡❢❡r❡❡❞ t♦ ✐♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ t❤❡♦r② ✱ ❛❧s♦ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❡ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡①✲
♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s✳ ș♥ ♦✉r ❝❛s❡✱ ✇❤❡r❡ ✇ ❡ s♣ ❡❝✐❢② ❛ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥ tr✐♥s✐❝✷✭♦r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧✮
✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✱ ✇ ❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t t♦ ❜ ❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐❧❧
❢♦❧❧♦ ✇ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❡rr♦r ❢❛❝t♦r ✭✇✐t❤ ③❡r♦ ♠❡❛♥✮✳ ș❢ ♥♦t ♠❡♥ t✐♦♥❡❞
♦t❤❡r✇✐s❡✱ ✇ ❡ ✉s❡ t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❞ ✧❡✣❝✐❡♥ t✧ ✭✇❤❡♥ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✮ ❛s ❛ s❤♦rt ❢♦r♠
❢♦r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✭❛s ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ❋ ❛♠❛ ✱ ✶✾✼✵ ✮✮✳
ș♥ t❤✐s ✇ ♦r❦ ✇ ❡ r❡❢❡r t♦ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✳ ❲ ❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ❛s s♣ ❡❝✲
✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ❛♥ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t str❛t❡❣② t❤❛t ✐♠♣❧✐❡s ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❣♦ ❛❣❛✐♥st t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ❛ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ s❤♦ ✇✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ✐s
♦ ✈ ❡r♣r✐❝❡❞✳ ș❢ t❤✐s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜✉②s t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ✇ ❡ r❡❢❡r t♦ ❤✐s ❛❝t✐♦♥ ❛s s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡✳ ❲ ❡
❞♦ ♥♦t ✐♠♣❧② t❤❛t s✉❝ ❤ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ♥♦t r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♦r ♥♦t ♣r♦✜t✲❞r✐✈ ❡♥✳ ❚❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡rs❡ ♦❢
❛ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡✱ ✐♥ t❤✐s ❝♦♥ t❡①t✱ ❛♥ ❛r❜✐tr❛t✐♦♥ ❛❝t✐♦♥✳ ❲ ❡ r❡❢❡r t♦ ❛
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❛s ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧✐st ✱ ♦r ❛s ❤❛ ✈✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❛r❜✐tr❛t✐♦♥ str❛t❡❣② ✱ ✐❢ ❤❡ ❛❝ts
✐♥ ❛❝❝♦r❞❛♥❝❡ t♦ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❤❡ ❤♦❧❞s✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ❜ ❡❢♦r❡✱ ❛ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧✐st
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✇✐❧❧ s❡❧❧ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❤❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡rs✱ ❢r♦♠ ❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ t♦ ❜ ❡ ♦ ✈ ❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞✳
❚❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♣ts ♦❢ r✐s❦ ♣r❡♠✐✉♠ ❛♥❞ r✐s❦ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛r❡ ❝❧❡❛r❧② ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡✱ s❡❡ ✭ ❱ ❛❧❞❡③ ✱ ✷✵✵✼ ✮✳ ❘✐s❦ ♣r❡♠✐✉♠ ✐s ❛ s✉❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ✇ ❡✐❣❤ t t❤❛t
❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ♣❧❛❝❡s ♦♥ ❤✐s ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s ❢r♦♠ ❛ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t✳ ❆ r✐s❦ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥
✐s ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✬s ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✬s r✐s❦✳ ❚ ♦ s✐♠♣❧② ♦✉r ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✇ ❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ t❤❡
❝♦♥❝❡♣t ♦❢ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ ✱rmin ✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐s ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r s✉❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳
✷❚❤✐s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐s ♥♦t ❦♥♦ ✇♥ ❞✐r❡❝t❧② ❜ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❍✐♥ ts ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛r❡
r❡✈ ❡❛❧❡❞ t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss✳

✷✳✷✳ ș♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❝♦♥❝❡♣ts ✶✺
❆ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ ♦❢ ❛♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡s ❤✐s r✐s❦ ♣r❡♠✐✉♠ ❛s ✇❡❧❧ ❛s ❤✐s
❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✬s r✐s❦✳ ❲❤❡♥ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r✐♥❣ ❛♥ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ❛❝t✐♦♥✱ ❛♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r
✇✐❧❧ ✉s❡ ❤✐s ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ ❛ ❣♦♦❞ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t✳
❆ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t r❛t❡ ✐s ✉s❡❞ t♦ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ ♣r❡s❡♥t ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣❛②♠❡♥ts✳ ș♥
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t❤❡♦r② ✱ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ❛ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ♠❡t❤♦❞s t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥t r❛t❡ ♦❢ ✭❡①✲
♣❡❝t❡❞✮ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s ♦❢ ❡q✉✐t② ✱ s✉❝❤ ❛s t❤❡ ❈❆P▼ ✭ ❙❤❛r♣❡ ✱ ✶✾✻✹ ✮✳ ❲ ❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r
t❤❛t ❛ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✇❤❡r❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ ❜♦t❤ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥t
r❛t❡s ✐s ♥♦t ♣❛rs✐♠♦♥✐♦✉s✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ✇❡ ♣r♦♣♦s❡ ❛♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❝❡ss ❢r♦♠ ✇❤✐❝❤
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❞✐r❡❝t❧② ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t❡❞ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s ✳
ș♥ t❤✐s ✇❛② ✱ ✇❡ ❛✈♦✐❞ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ✐♥❤❡r❡♥t t♦ ♠❡t❤♦❞s ❢♦r s❡♣❛r❛t❡❧② ❡s✲
t✐♠❛t✐♥❣ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥t r❛t❡s✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦✉r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♣r♦❝❡ss ✐s ❜✐❛s❡❞
✭❞✉❡ t♦ ✐♥✈❡st♦r s✉❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈❡ ❝❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s✮ ♦✉r ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤ ❞♦❡s ♥♦t ♥❡❝❡ss❛r✐❧② ✐♠♣❧②
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥t r❛t❡s ♥♦r ♦❢ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s✳

✶✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥
✷✳✸ ❇❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s t❤❡② ❝❛✉s❡
❚❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ♣✉r♣♦s❡ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✐s t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ❛❧❧♦❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧✳ ș♥✈❡st♦rs
✉s❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛s ❣✉✐❞❡s t♦ ✐♥✈❡st t❤❡✐r ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠♦st ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ✈❡♥t✉r❡s✳
❘❡❢❡rr✐♥❣ t♦ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡ts✱ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛ st♦❝❦✱ ✐♥ t❤❡♦r② ✱ ✐s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞
t♦ ❜❡ t❤❡ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥t❡❞ s✉♠ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝❛s❤ t❤❛t ✇✐❧❧ ✢♦✇ t♦ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ st♦❝❦✳ ❆
st♦❝❦✬s t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ✭❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ♦r ✐♥tr✐♥s✐❝✮ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❡①♣r❡ss❡❞ ❛s✿
Ft=n/summationdisplay
i=1CFt+i
(1+rt+i)t+i✭✷✳✶✮
✇❤❡r❡ ❈❋ ✐s ❛ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤ ✢♦✇ ✭❡✐t❤❡r ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞ ♦r r❡s❡❧❧ ♣r✐❝❡✮✳ ❆♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❤❛s
t♦ ❦♥♦✇ t❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛❧❧ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤✲✢♦✇s ❛♥❞ ❛♣♣r♦♣r✐❛t❡ r❛t❡s ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥ t♦ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡
t❤✐s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ st♦❝❦✳ ș♥ r❡❛❧✐t② ✱ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ♠❛❦❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ✇❤❛t
❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤✲✢♦✇s ❛♥❞ r❛t❡s ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡✳ ❋ ♦r s✐♠♣❧✐❝✐t② ✭❜✉t ✇✐t❤♦✉t r❡str❛✐♥✐♥❣
t❤❡ ❜r❡❛❞t❤ ♦❢ ♦✉r r❡s✉❧ts✮ ❧❡t ✉s s✉♣♣♦s❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ r❛t❡ ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥ ✐s ❝♦♥st❛♥t ✐♥ ❛❧❧
t✐♠❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞✱
ri=r,∀i ✭✷✳✷✮
ș♥ t❤✐s ❝♦♥t❡①t✱ ❛♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❧♦♦❦s ♦♥❧② ❢♦r t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♥❡❡❞❡❞ t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡
❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤ ✢♦✇s ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ st♦❝❦✱ ❛s ✐♥ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠✉❧❛ ✷✳✸ ✳
Einvestor(Ft) =n/summationdisplay
i=1Einvestor(CFt+i,Information )
(1+r)t+i✭✷✳✸✮
❆♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r✬s ❛❜✐❧✐t② t♦ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤ ✢♦✇s ✐s ❧✐♠✐t❡❞ ♦♥❧② ❜② ❤✐s
✐♥t❡❧❧✐❣❡♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞✐♥❣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢❛❝t♦rs t❤❛t ❣♦✈❡r♥ t❤❡ ♣❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❛ ❝♦♠✲
♣❛♥② ✱ ❛ss✉♠✐♥❣ ❡q✉❛❧ ❛❝❝❡ss t♦ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ◆❛t✉r❛❧❧② ✱ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ❧❡✈❡❧s
♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❦♥♦✇❧❡❞❣❡✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡✐r ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❛ st♦❝❦✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
❛r❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t✳ ❯s✐♥❣ t❤❡✐r ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s✱ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝♦♠❡ t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛♥❞ tr②
t♦ s❡❧❧ ♦r ❜✉② ❢♦r ❛ ♣r♦✜t✳ șrr❡❧❡✈ ❛♥t ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠ ✐t ✐s
❝♦rr❡❝t t♦ s❛② t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✬ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡❞ ❡①♣❡❝t❛✲
t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ st♦❝❦✬s ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✭s❡❡ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ❜❡❧♦✇ ✇❤❡r❡ fpm st❛♥❞s ❢♦r ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ❛♥❞ ♠ ✐s t❤❡ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇❤♦ tr❛❞❡ t❤❛t st♦ ❝ ❦ ❛t ♠♦♠❡♥ t t✮
Pt=fpm(E1(Ft),E2(Ft),…,Em(Ft)) ✭✷✳✹✮
❊q✉❛t✐♦♥ ✷✳✹ ❛♥❞ ✐ts r❡s♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ✐s ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ❞❡❜❛t❡ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ✐♥ ♠♦ ❞❡r♥
✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ❆ ❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② t❤❡♦r② ✭ ❋ ❛♠❛ ✱ ✶✾✼✵ ✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧
❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s t❤❡♦r② ✭ ▼✉t❤ ✱ ✶✾✻✶ ✮ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐❧❧ q✉✐❝ ❦❧② ❛♥❞ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ✐♥ t❡❣r❛t❡ ✐♥✲
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t♦ ♣r✐❝❡s s♦ t❤❡② ❛❝❝✉r❛t❡❧② r❡✢❡❝t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳ ❚❤✐s ❧✐♥❡ ♦❢
t❤❡♦r② ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t ✐♠♣❧② t❤❛t ❡❛❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❤❛s ❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ r❛t❤❡r t❤❛t
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❝❛♥ s♦♠❡❤♦ ✇ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠ ❛❧❧ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ t♦ ❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞✱
✉♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞✱ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥✳

✷✳✸✳ ❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s t❤❡② ❝❛✉s❡ ✶✼
Pt=Ft+εtE(εt) = 0 ✭✷✳✺✮
❈♦♥ tr❛r② t♦ t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❢♦✉♥❞❛t✐♦♥✱ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❛s✲
s❡rts t❤❛t ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ✷✳✺ ✐s ♥♦t tr✉❡ ❛♥❞ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥ t❧② ❢❛r ❢r♦♠
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳ ❚❤❡ ❜❛s✐❝ ❛ss❡rt✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ st❛t❡s t❤❛t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❛r❡ ♥♦t ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✱ ❛♥❞ t❤✐s ❢❛❝t ❝❛♥ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s✳ ❲ ❡ r❡✲
❢❡r ② ♦✉ t♦ ✭ ❉❡ ❇♦♥❞t ❛♥❞ ❚❤❛❧❡r ✱ ✶✾✽✼ ✮ ♦r ✭ ❈♦ ✈ ❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❙❤ ✉♠ ✇ ❛ ② ✱ ✷✵✵✺ ✮ ❢♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡s
❛♥❞ ❞✐s❝✉ss✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ tr❛✐ts ❛✛❡❝t✐♥❣ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳
ș♥ ♦✉r t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❝♦♥ t❡①t✱ ✇ ❡r❡ ✇ ❡ s✉♣♣ ♦s❡ t❤❡ ❛♣r✐♦r✐ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
♠❛r❦ ❡t✸✱ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r t❤❛t ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ st❛t❡s t❤❛t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡
♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥ t❧② ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✭✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✮✳ ❚❤✐s ✐❞❡❛ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❡①♣r❡ss❡❞
✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s ✷✳✻ ✭❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❛t ❛❧❧ r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮
❛♥❞ ✷✳✼ ✭❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥ t❧② ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ r❡❣❛r❞s t♦ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮ ✿
Pt/negationslash=Ft+εt ✭✷✳✻✮
Pt=Ft+εtE(εt)/negationslash= 0 ✭✷✳✼✮
▲♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ❛❣❛✐♥ ❛t ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ✷✳✹ ✇ ❡ s❡❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❢♦r♠❡❞✱ t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❛
❞❡❞✉❝t✐✈ ❡ ♣r♦ ❝❡❞✉r❡ ✭❝❛❧❧❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r② ♠❡t❤♦ ❞✮✱ ❜ ② ❝♦♠ ❜✐♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s
♦❢ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥ ts✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ t ✇ ♦ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ❝♦♠❡ t♦ ♠✐♥❞✿
✶✳ ❈❛♥ ✭❜✐❛s❡❞✮ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡❄
✷✳ ș❢ ✶✮ ✐s tr✉❡✱ ✐♥ ✇❤❛t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ❞♦ t❤❡s❡ ❜✐❛s❡s ♣ ❡rs✐st❄
❚ ♦ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡ t❤❡ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✐❛s❡s ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t♦ t❤✐♥❦ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♣ ❡rs♣ ❡❝✲
t✐✈ ❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝❧✐❡♥ t ♦❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✿ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✳ ❲❤❡♥ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ s❡r✈✐❝❡s
♦❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ ♠♦st ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❡①♣ ❡❝t t♦ ❜✉② ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ❛t ✭❛t ♠♦st✮ ✐t✬s ❢❛✐r
✭❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧✮ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❡①♣ ❡❝ts t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐❧❧ q✉✐❝ ❦❧②
❢♦❧❧♦ ✇ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❣♦ ❡s ✉♣ ♦r ❞♦ ✇♥✳ ș♥ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
✇✐t❤ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡s✱ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❜❛r❡ t❤❡ r✐s❦ ♦❢ ♦ ✈ ❡r♣❛ ②✐♥❣ ❢♦r ❛ss❡ts ❛♥❞✴♦r s❡❧❧✲
✐♥❣ ❛ss❡ts ❛t ❧❡ss t❤❛♥ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❋ ♦r s♦♠❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ s✉❝ ❤ r✐s❦s ❛r❡
✉♥❛❝❝❡♣t❛❜❧❡ s✐♥❝❡ t❤❡② ♦♥❧② tr❛❞❡ t♦ ♣r❡s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡✐r ❝❛♣✐t❛❧✳ ❈♦♥s❡q✉❡♥ t❧② ❜✐❛s❡❞
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❡①❤✐❜✐t ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡s ♦r ♥♦ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❛t ❛❧❧✳ ▲ ❛r❛❞♦ ①✐❝❛❧❧② ✱ s♦♠❡
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs str✐✈ ❡ t♦ ❡♥ t❡r ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✇❤❡♥ ❛ss❡ts ❛r❡ ✉♥❞❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❡①✐t ✇❤❡♥ ❛ss❡ts
❜ ❡❝♦♠❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ✈ ❛❧✉❡❞ ✭♦r ❡✈ ❡♥ ❜ ❡tt❡r✱ ♦ ✈ ❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞✮✳ ș❞❡❛❧❧② ✱ s♦♠❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇ ♦✉❧❞
♣r❡❢❡r ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✇✐t❤ t ✇ ♦ ❝②❝❧✐❝❛❧ st❛❣❡s✿ ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ st❛❣❡ ✭✇❤❡r❡ ❛ss❡ts ❛r❡ ✉♥❞❡r ♦r
♦ ✈ ❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞✮ ❛♥❞ ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t st❛❣❡ ✭✇❤❡r❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ✇ ♦✉❧❞ r❡✢❡❝t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✮✳
ș♥ s✉❝ ❤ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♠❛❦ ❡ r❡t✉r♥s ❜ ② ♣r♦✜t✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ❝❧♦s✐♥❣
✸P❧❡❛s❡ r❡❢❡r t♦ s❡❝t✐♦♥ ✷✳✷ ❢♦r ❛ ❝❧❡❛r ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✇❤❛t ✇ ❡ ❛ss✉♠❡ ❜ ② ❛ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳

✶✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥
t❤❡✐r ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥s ✇❤❡♥ ❛ss❡ts ❛r❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ♣r✐❝❡❞✳ ș♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✇✐t❤ ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ t❧② ❜✐✲
❛s❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝❛♥♥♦t ♠❛❦ ❡ ❡①❝❡ss✐✈ ❡ ♣r♦✜ts ✉s✐♥❣ ❤✐s ✐♥s✐❣❤ ts ✐♥ t♦
❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧s✳
✷✳✹ ❇❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✈s✳ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡ts
❆ ❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t t❤❡♦r② ✱ ❛♥ ② ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❜✐❛s ♣ ♦s❡s ♥♦ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s t♦ t❤❡
♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛♥❞ ✐ts ❡✛❡❝t ✐s ♦♥❧② t❡♠♣ ♦r❛r② ✳ ❚❤❡ t❤❡♦r② st❛t❡s t❤❛t s♠❛rt ❛♥❞ ❛❞❛♣t❛❜❧❡
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs q✉✐❝ ❦❧② ❞❡t❡❝t t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♣r♦✜t ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t ② ✱ ❝r❡❛t❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❜✐❛s✱ ❛♥❞
♣✉t ✐♥ ♣❧❛❝❡ ❛ str❛t❡❣② t❤❛t ✇✐❧❧ ♣ ❡r♠✐t t♦ ♣r♦✜t ♦✉t ♦❢ t❤✐s ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✳ ❲❤❡♥
❡♥♦✉❣❤ ♠♦♥❡② ✐s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ str❛t❡❣② t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♣r♦✜t ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ❞✐s❛♣♣ ❡❛r✳
❚❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤✐s ♣r♦ ❝❡ss ♦❢ r❛♣✐❞ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥✱ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜✐❛s❡s q✉✐❝ ❦❧② ❞✐s❛♣♣ ❡❛r✳ ❚❤✐s
t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❛ss❡rt✐♦♥ ✐s tr✉❡ ❜✉t ✐♥❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡✳ ❚❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts t❤❡♦r② ✐❣♥♦r❡s t❤❡
✇ ❛ ② ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✐s ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② r❡st♦r❡❞✳ ❚❤❡ t❤❡♦r② ✐♠♣❧✐❝✐t❧② ❛ss✉♠❡s t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ❡①❝❡❧❧❡♥ t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ q✉✐❝ ❦❧② r❡✈ ❡❛❧s ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s✳ ❚❤✐s
❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ❛❧s♦ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❡ ❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣❡❛❜❧❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ t❧② ♠♦♥✐t♦r ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
❛♥❞ ❧♦ ♦❦ t♦ ❡①♣❧♦✐t ❛♥ ② ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✳ ș♥ ❢❛❝t✱ t❤❡② ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st t❤❡✐r ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ❛s
❧♦♥❣ ❛s t❤❡② ❞♦♥✬t ❞❡t❡❝t ❛♥ ② ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✳ ❲❤✐❧❡ ♥♦t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐♥❣✱ s✉❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
✇ ♦✉❧❞ ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ✐♥❝✉r t❤❡ ❝♦sts ❢♦r t❤❡✐r ❡①❝❡❧❧❡♥ t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❙♦✱ t❤❡s❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
✇ ♦✉❧❞ r❡q✉✐r❡ ❡✈ ❡r② ♥❡✇ ♣r♦✜t ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t ② ✭❛r✐s✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s✮ t♦
♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ ❣❛✐♥s t♦ ❝♦ ✈ ❡r✿ t❤❡ ❝♦st ♦❢ t❤❡ str❛t❡❣② ✱ t❤❡ ❝♦st ♦❢ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❜ ♦✉❣❤ t ❛♥❞ ❛ s✉✣❝✐❡♥ t r✐s❦ ♣r❡♠✐✉♠ ❢♦r ❡♥❣❛❣✐♥❣ t❤❡✐r ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ❛❣❛✐♥st
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✬s ❜❧✉♥❞❡r✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ t❤❡s❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♥❡✈ ❡r ❡♥❣❛❣❡ t❤❡✐r ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ t♦ ❝♦rr❡❝t
s♠❛❧❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s s✐♥❝❡ s✉❝ ❤ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t ❜ ❡ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡✳ ș♥st❡❛❞✱ t❤❡②
✇ ❛✐t ✉♥ t✐❧ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣s ❛ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✭❞❡♣ ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ t❤❡
t❤r❡❡ ❢❛❝t♦rs ♠❡♥ t✐♦♥❡❞ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡✮ ❛♥❞ ♦♥❧② t❤❡♥ ❞♦ t❤❡② t❛❦ ❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥✳ ❙✉❝ ❤ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✱ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♣❛rt ♦❢ ✇ ❡❧❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ❝❛♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ✭❜ ② ✐♥❛❝t✐♦♥✮ t❤❡
❛♣♣ ❡❛r❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣✳
ș♥ t❤❡✐r ❢❛♠♦✉s ❛rt✐❝❧❡✱ ✬ ❖♥ t❤❡ ș♠♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t② ♦❢ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❧② ❊✣❝✐❡♥t ▼❛r✲
❦❡ts ✬✱ ✭ ●r♦ss♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❙t✐❣❧✐t③ ✱ ✶✾✽✵ ✮ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ ❛ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❜❛s✐s ❢♦r t❤✐s ♣❛r❛❞♦ ①
❛♥❞ ❝♦♥❝❧✉❞❡ ❜ ② s❛ ②✐♥❣ t❤❛t ✧ ❜ ❡ ❝ ❛✉s❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❝ ♦st❧②✱ ♣r✐❝ ❡s ❝ ❛♥♥♦t ♣ ❡r❢❡ ❝t❧②
r ❡✢❡ ❝t t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐s ❛✈❛✐❧❛❜❧❡✱ s✐♥❝ ❡ ✐❢ ✐t ❞✐❞✱ t❤♦s❡ ✇❤♦ s♣ ❡♥t r ❡s♦✉r ❝ ❡s
t♦ ♦❜t❛✐♥ ✐t ✇♦✉❧❞ r ❡ ❝ ❡✐✈❡ ♥♦ ❝ ♦♠♣ ❡♥s❛t✐♦♥ ✧✳ ❲ ❡ ❛❞❞ t♦ t❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s ♦❢ ✭ ●r♦ss✲
♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❙t✐❣❧✐t③ ✱ ✶✾✽✵ ✮ ❛♥❞ s❛ ② t❤❛t ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❤❛s t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✉s✐♥❣ ❤✐s
❝❛♣✐t❛❧ t♦ ❡✐t❤❡r ❣♦ ❛❣❛✐♥st ❛♥ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❝t ✭r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ t♦ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✬s ♣ ❡rs♦♥❛❧ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s✮
♠❛r❦ ❡t tr❡♥❞ ♦r t♦ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t❡ ❛♥❞ ❣♦ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✭❡✈ ❡♥ ✇❤❡♥ ❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
s❛ ②s t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ✐s ♠✐s♣r✐❝❡❞✮✳ ș♥ ❜ ♦t❤ ❝❛s❡s t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ♠❛❦ ❡s ❛ ❣❛♠ ❜❧❡✿ ❡✐t❤❡r t❤❡
♠❛r❦ ❡t ✧ ✇ ❛❦ ❡s ✉♣✧ ❛♥❞ ❤❡ ♣r♦✜ts ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡s ✐♥ t❤❡
✇r♦♥❣ ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ♣r♦✜ts ❢r♦♠ ❣♦✐♥❣ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ tr❡♥❞✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ✈✐❡✇✱ ✇ ❡
❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥s ✇❤❡♥ ❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣❡❛❜❧❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞❡❝✐❞❡ t♦ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇ t❤❡
✬✐♥❝♦rr❡❝t✬ ♠❛r❦ ❡t tr❡♥❞✳ ❚❤✐s ✬ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ s♣ ❡ ❝✉❧❛t✐✈❡ ✬ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❛♠♣❧✐✜❡s t❤❡ ♠♦♠❡♥✲
t✉♠ ❢♦r t❤❡ tr❡♥❞✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ❡✈ ❡♥ ♠♦r❡ t❤❡ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✳ ❲❤❡♥ t❤✐s ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥s✱

✷✳✹✳ ❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✈s✳ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✶✾
♣r✐❝❡s ❜ ❡❝♦♠❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ❛♥❞ ❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣❡❛❜❧❡ ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♦rs st❛rt ❛ ❝❧❛ss✐❝ ❣❛♠❡ ♦❢ ❝❛t ❛♥❞ ♠♦✉s❡✳ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ♦♣ ❡♥ ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥s ❧♦ ♦❦
❢♦r s✐❣♥s t❤❛t ♦t❤❡r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ t✉r♥ ❛❣❛✐♥st t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜ ② r❡✈ ❡❛❧✐♥❣ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
t❤❛t ❡♥❝♦✉r❛❣❡s ♦t❤❡rs t♦ ❝❧♦s❡ ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t❡ ♦♥ t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s✳
ș♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❞r✐✈ ❡♥ ❛♥ ②♠♦r❡ ❜ ② ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭str✐❝t❧② r❡✲
❧❛t❡❞ t♦ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s r❡❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮ ❜✉t r❛t❤❡r ❜ ② ✐♥❞✐❝❛t♦rs ♦❢ ❤♦ ✇ ♠❛♥ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡
✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ r✐❞❡ ✭♦r ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡ t♦✮ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t tr❡♥❞✳ ❚❤✐s ✐❞❡❛ ✐s ♥♦t ♥❡✇ s✐♥❝❡ ✐t r❡s❡♠✲
❜❧❡s ❛ ❑❡②♥❡s✐❛♥ ❜ ❡❛✉t ② ❝♦♥ t❡st ✇❤❡r❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs tr② t♦ ❣✉❡ss ❡❛❝ ❤ ♦t❤❡rs ✐♥ t❡♥ t✐♦♥s✳
❲❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠♦ ✈ ❡s ❛ ✇ ❛ ② ❢r♦♠ ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t st❛t❡✱ ✐♥ t♦ ❛ st❛t❡ ✇❤❡r❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
✐s ❝♦♥ tr♦❧❧❡❞ ❜ ② ❛❞✲❤♦ ❝ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s ❛♥❞ ♠♦♠❡♥ t✉♠ ❛❝t✐♦♥s✱ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥
❡❛s✐❧② ❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣ ✐♥ t♦ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✳ ș♥ t❤❡s❡ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥s✱ r✐s❦ ❝❛♥ ❣r❡❛t❧② ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ s✐♥❝❡ ❜ ♦t❤
✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ❛♥❞ ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s✳
❙♦♠❡ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ❛r✐s❡✿
• ❍♦ ✇ ♦❢t❡♥ ❝❛♥ t❤❡s❡ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❡✈ ❡♥ ts ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥❄
• ❍♦ ✇ ❧♦♥❣ ❞♦ ❡s ✐t t❛❦ ❡ t♦ r❡t✉r♥ t♦ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②❄
• ❈❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♣r♦✜t ❢r♦♠ t❤❡s❡ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s ❜ ② ♥♦t ❛❝t✐♥❣ ❛❣❛✐♥st t❤❡♠❄
❚❤❡s❡ ❛r❡ s♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ✇ ❡ ❛♥s✇ ❡r ✇✐t❤ t❤✐s t❤❡s✐s✳
❆s✐❞❡ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝ ✐♥ t❡r❡st✱ t❤❡ ❛♥s✇ ❡rs t♦ t❤❡s❡ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛♥ ✐♠✲
♣ ♦rt❛♥ t r❡❣✉❧❛t♦r② ✐♠♣❛❝t✳ ❇② ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ s②st❡♠✐❝ ❝❛✉s❡s ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❡✣✲
❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s✱ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ♦r❣❛♥✐③❡rs ❛♥❞ r❡❣✉❧❛t♦rs ❝❛♥ ✐♠♣ ♦s❡ ♥❡✇ ♦♣ ❡r❛t✐♥❣ r✉❧❡s
❛♥❞ r❡❣✉❧❛t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ❧✐♠✐t ♦r st♦♣ t❤❡s❡ ❜✐❛s❡s✳ ș❞❡♥ t✐❢②✐♥❣ s✉❝ ❤ ❢❛❝t♦rs ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡s
♥❡✇ ✇ ❛ ②s t♦✿
✶✳ ❆ ❝❝✉r❛t❡❧② ❝♦♠♠ ✉♥✐❝❛t❡ t♦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s
✭❜ ❡tt❡r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮
✷✳ ❉❡✈ ❡❧♦♣ ♥❡✇ r✐s❦ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s t♦ ❛ss❡s ♣ ♦t❡♥ t✐❛❧ ❧♦ss❡s ✭❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧② ❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧② ❢♦r
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇❤♦ ❝❛♥♥♦t s✉♣♣ ♦rt ♠ ✉❝ ❤ r✐s❦✮
✸✳ ❈❤❛♥❣❡ t❤❡ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ✧❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✧ ✐♥ t♦ ✧ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡ts ✧✳
❚❤✐s ❝❛♥ ❤❡❧♣ ✐♥st✐t✉t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♠❛❦ ❡ ❜ ❡tt❡r r✐s❦ ❛ss❡ss♠❡♥ ts ♦♥ ❜ ❡❤❛❧❢ ♦❢
t❤❡✐r ❝❧✐❡♥ ts✳
✹✳ ❉❡✈ ❡❧♦♣ ❜ ❡tt❡r ✇ ❛ ②s t♦ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r ❛♥❞ s✐❣♥❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s ✭✐♠♣r♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡
❛ttr❛❝t✐✈ ❡♥❡ss ❛♥❞ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✮✳
❆s ❛r❣✉❡❞ ❜ ❡❢♦r❡✱ ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤r♦✉❣❤✲♦✉t ♦✉r st✉❞② t❤❛t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✧ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s✧
❛r❡ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ❢♦r s♦♠❡ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✐t ✐s r❡❛s♦♥❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t
✐t ✐s ✐♥ t❤❡ ✐♥ t❡r❡st ♦❢ s✉❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t♦ ♣r❡s❡r✈ ❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✐♥ t❤❡✐r ❛❝t✉❛❧
st❛t❡✿ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ❛♥❞ ♦ ❝❝❛s✐♦♥❛❧❧② ✈❡r② ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥t ✳

✷✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥
✷✳✺ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
❲ ❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠♦st ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ❝❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝ ♦❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐s ✐ts
❛❜✐❧✐t② t♦ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ♣r✐❝❡ ❛ss❡ts✳ ▼✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts ✐s ❞✉❡ t♦ ❛ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❢❛❝t♦rs
❧✐❦❡✿ ❧❛❝❦ ♦❢ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ✱ ❧❛❝❦ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦r ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r✳ ș♥ r❡❣❛r❞s t♦ t❤❡ ✜rst
t✇♦ ❢❛❝t♦rs ✭❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ❛♥❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮ t❤❡ r❡❝❡♥t t❡♥ ②❡❛rs ❤❛✈❡ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
♠❛r❦❡ts ✇✐t❤ t❡❝❤♥♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ t♦♦❧s ✭❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ❡❧❡❝tr♦♥✐❝ ♠❛r❦❡ts✱ ❛❧❣♦r✐t❤♠✐❝ tr❛❞✲
✐♥❣✱ ❡t❝✮ t❤❛t ❡♥❛❜❧❡✱ ❛s ♥❡✈❡r s❡❡♥ ❜❡❢♦r❡✱ t❤❡ ❢❛st ❛♥❞ r❡❧✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❝❝❡ss t♦ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❛♥❞ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ✳ ș♥ t❤✐s st✉❞② ✇❡ ❢♦❝✉s ♦♥ t❤❡ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥s❤✐♣ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦r
❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r✳ ❲ ❡ ❛ss✉♠❡ ❛❝❝❡ss t♦ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ❛♥❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❝♦♥st❛♥t ❛♥❞ ❡q✉❛❧ ❢♦r
❛❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳
ș♥ ♦✉r st✉❞② ♦❢ t❤❡ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥s❤✐♣s ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐♥❡✣✲
❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s ✇❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ❛♥s✇❡r✐♥❣ ✜✈❡ r❡s❡❛r❝❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s✳
❘ ❡s❡ ❛r ❝❤ ◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ★✶ ✿ ❲❤❛t ♠✐① ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛✈✐♦rs ♣r ♦ ❞✉❝ ❡s ❝ ♦♥✲
s✐st❡♥t❧② ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝ ❡s❄
❇② ❛♥s✇❡r✐♥❣ t❤✐s q✉❡st✐♦♥ ✇❡ s❤♦✇ ❤♦✇ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ❜✐❛s❡s ❝❛♥ ❛✛❡❝t ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡
♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ șt ✐s ✐♥t✉✐t✐✈❡ t♦ s❛② ✱ ❢♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ t❤❛t ✐❢ ❛❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♦♣t✐♠✐sts
t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❛♥ ✐ts ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✇❡ ❛❧s♦
s❤♦✇ ✐❢ ✐t ✐s r❡❛❧✐st✐❝ t❤❛t s✉❝❤ ❛ ♠✐① ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡s ❝❛♥ ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② ❛♣♣❡❛r ✐♥ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♠♦st ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛r❡ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ t♦ ❛❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇❡ s❡❡❦ t❤♦s❡
❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇❤♦ s✉r✈✐✈❡ ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳
❘ ❡s❡ ❛r ❝❤ ◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ★✷ ✿ ❈❛♥ ❛ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦r✭s✮ s✉r✈✐✈❡ ✐♥ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r✲
❦❡t❄
ș❢ t❤❡ ❛♥s✇❡r t♦ q✉❡st✐♦♥ ✷ ✐s ②❡s t❤❛♥ ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ ♣r♦✈❡♥ t❤❛t ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❝❛♥
♣❡rs✐st ✐♥ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❲ ❡ ❛r❡ st✐❧❧ ❧❡❢t ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ✐ss✉❡ ♦❢ ❤♦✇ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r
❝❛♥ ❛♣♣❡❛r ✐♥ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ❖♥❡ ❝❛♥ ❛r❣✉❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✉♥❞❡r❣♦ ❡①t❡♥s✐✈❡ ♣r❡♣❛r❛t✐♦♥s✱
❜❡❢♦r❡ ❡♥t❡r✐♥❣ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✱ t♦ ❞✐s❝♦✈❡r ❛♥❞ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡ t❤❡✐r ❜✐❛s❡s✳ ▼♦r❡♦✈❡r
✇❡ ❝❛♥ s✉♣♣♦s❡ t❤❛t ❛❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝♦♥st❛♥t❧② ❧♦♦❦ t♦ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡ t❤❡✐r ♦✇♥ ❜✐❛s❡s✳ ❲ ❡
❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦ ❛ss✉♠❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝♦♥st❛♥t❧② ❛❞❥✉st t❤❡✐r ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥
♦r❞❡r t♦ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡✐r ♣r♦✜ts✳ ș♥ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ s✉❝❤ ♣✉r❡ ♣r♦✜t ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈❡✱ ♦♥❡ ❝❛♥ ❛r❣✉❡ ❛♥
✐♥✈❡st♦r ❝❛♥ ✈♦❧✉♥t❛r✐❧② ❝❤♦♦s❡ t♦ ❜✐❛s ❤✐s ❜❡❧✐❡❢s ♦r ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✐❢ ❤❡ ❝❛♥ ♠❛❦❡ ❛ ❜✐❣❣❡r
♣r♦✜t✳ ș♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡ts ♣r♦✈✐❞❡ ❛♥ ❛♣♣r♦①✐♠❛t❡❧② ✼✪ r❡t✉r♥ ♣❡r ②❡❛r✱ ♦♥
t❤❡ ❧♦♥❣ t❡r♠ ✭✐♥ s♣✐t❡ ♦❢ ②❡❛rs ✇✐t❤ ❤✉❣❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝r✐s❡s✮✳ ❨ ❡t st♦❝❦ ♣r✐❝❡s s♦♠❡✲
t✐♠❡s r✐s❡ ✈❡r② ❢❛st ❛♥❞ ✈❡r② ❤✐❣❤✳ ❙✉❝❤ ♠♦♠❡♥ts ♦✛❡r ♣r♦✜t ♦♣♣♦rt✉♥✐t✐❡s ♠✉❝❤
❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❛♥ ✼✪✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ♦♥ ❛ ♣✉r❡ ♣r♦✜t ❜❛s✐s✱ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈❡s t♦ ✬r✐❞❡✬
❛♥❞ ❝❛s❤ ✐♥ ♦♥ ❛❜♥♦r♠❛❧✱ s❤♦rt✲t❡r♠✱ ♠❛r❦❡t ♦♣♣♦rt✉♥✐t✐❡s✳ ❚ ♦ ❡❛r♥ s✉❝❤ r❡t✉r♥s✱
♥♦t ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧s ♦❢ t❤❡ tr❛❞❡❞ ❛ss❡ts✱ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ♦❢t❡♥
✉s❡ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ♥♦t s♦❧❡❧② ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧s ✭❤❡♥❝❡ t❤❡ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧
tr❛❞✐♥❣✮✳
❘ ❡s❡ ❛r ❝❤ ◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ★✸ ✿ ❈❛♥ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❡ ❛r♥ ♠♦r ❡ t❤❛♥ ♥♦♥✲❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥✲
✈❡st♦rs❄ ș❢ ②❡s✱ ✐♥ ✇❤❛t ❝ ♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s❄

✷✳✻✳ ❘❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ▼❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ✷✶
ș❢ ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r s✉r✈✐✈ ❡s ❛♥❞ ❡❛r♥s ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♣r♦✜ts ✐♥ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ ✇ ❡
❡①♣ ❡❝t ♦t❤❡r r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ ts t♦ ♠✐♠✐❝ s✉❝ ❤ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs✳ ❚❤❡ ♠♦r❡
❜✐❛s❡❞ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ ts ❡♥ t❡r ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t t❤❡ ♠♦r❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t❡❞
❢r♦♠ ✐t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✢♦ ✇✳ ❇✉t ❛❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇ ❛♥ t t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ ♣r♦✜ts s♦
t❤❡② ❡①♣ ❡❝t ♣r✐❝❡s t♦ r✐s❡✳ ▲❛❝ ❦✐♥❣ ✭♦r ♥♦t ✉s✐♥❣✮ t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ♦❢ ✬❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝
r❡❛❧✐t ② ❝ ❤❡❝ ❦s✬ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❛♥ ② ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❜❛❝ ❦✐♥❣✳ ș♥❝r❡❛s❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡s
❝❛♥ ✉❧t✐♠❛t❡❧② ❧❡❛❞ t♦ ♠♦♠❡♥ ts ✇❤❡r❡ ♥♦ ✬❜✐❣❣❡r ❢♦ ♦❧✬ ❡①✐sts✳ ș♥ s✉❝ ❤ ❝❛s❡s✱ tr❛❞✐♥❣
❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❡♥❞ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✇✐❧❧ st❛rt ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ❢♦r♠❡❞ ❜ ② ♦t❤❡r
❣r♦✉♣s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭✉s✉❛❧❧② r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♥♦♥✲❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✮✳
❘ ❡s❡ ❛r ❝❤ ◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ★✹ ✿ ❲❤❛t ❛r ❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♠✐❝r ♦ ❝ ♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ❢♦r t❤❡ ❡♠❡r✲
❣❡♥❝ ❡ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝ ❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s❄
▲❛st❧② ✱ ✇ ❡ st✉❞② t ✇ ♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ t ✇ ♦ s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧ ❦✐♥❞s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✿ ❨ ♦ ❞❛
❛♥❞ ❙✐t❤✳ ❇♦t❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛♠❛③✐♥❣ ❝❛♣❛❝✐t✐❡s ❢♦r ❛♥❛❧②s✐♥❣ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛✲
t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❢♦r ❝♦♠♣✉t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ② ❛ss❡t✳ ❨ ♦ ❞❛ tr✐❡s t♦
♣r♦✜t ❢r♦♠ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❛❝t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ❝❧♦s❡ t❤❡ ❣❛♣ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡
❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ș♥ ♦♣♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥✱ ❙✐t❤ ❧♦ ♦❦s ❢♦r ♣r♦✜t ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t✐❡s ✇✐t❤♦✉t
r❡❣❛r❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ✇ ♦r❦ ✇ ❡ s❤♦ ✇
✇❤✐❝ ❤ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ t ✇ ♦ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ❨ ♦ ❞❛ ♦r ❙✐t❤✱ s✉r✈✐✈ ❡s ✐♥ ❛ ❝♦♠♣ ❡t✐t✐✈ ❡ ✜♥❛♥✲
❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ș❢ t❤❡ ❙✐t❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r s✉r✈✐✈ ❡s t❤❡♥ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ r❡✐♥❢♦r❝❡ t❤❡ ✐❞❡❛ t❤❛t ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t❡❞ ❢r♦♠ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ r❡❛❧✐t✐❡s✳ ❘❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ✶
s❡❡❦s t❤❡ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✱ ❛t ❛♥ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✱ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t✐♦♥ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧s✳ ❘❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ✺ ❧♦ ♦❦s ❢♦r ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs
t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳
❘ ❡s❡ ❛r ❝❤ ◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ★✺ ✿ ❈❛♥ ❨ ♦ ❞❛ ❜ ❡ ❛t ❙✐t❤❄ ❍♦✇ ❝ ❛♥ ❧✐✈❡ ❧♦♥❣❡r✱ ❨ ♦ ❞❛ ♦r
❙✐t❤❄
❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡s❡ ✜✈ ❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ❤❡❧♣s ✉s ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❤♦ ✇ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ❝❛♥ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛♥ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥❞✐r❡❝t❧② ♦♥ t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t
❛❧❧♦ ❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ✐♥ ♦✉r ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❡s✳
✷✳✻ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ▼❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣②
❖✉r r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ❣♦❛❧ ✐s t♦ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ ❧✐♥❦s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛ t❤❡
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❚ ♦ ❛♥s✇ ❡r t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ✉s✐♥❣
❛ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② t❤❛t ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❛ ✬❣❡♥❡r❛t✐✈ ❡ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤✬ ✭ ❊♣st❡✐♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✻ ✮✳ ❲ ❡ ✜rst ❞❡✜♥❡
❛ ❤ ②♣ ♦t❤❡s✐s ❛ss❡rt✐♥❣ ❛ ❝♦♥♥❡❝t✐♦♥ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❛ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❛♥❞ ❛♥ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤❡ ❤ ②♣ ♦t❤❡s❡s ✇ ❡ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❛❧❧ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇
t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ str✉❝t✉r❡✿
❍✿ ❙✉♣♣ ♦s❡ t❤❛t ❝ ♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s X1…Xn ❛r ❡ r ❡s♣ ❡ ❝t❡ ❞ ✭❛t t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ ❛
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✮✳ ❚❤❡♥ ❝ ♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s Y1…Ym ✇✐❧ ❧ ❡♠❡r ❣❡ ❛t t❤❡ ❛❣❣r ❡ ❣❛t❡ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢
t❤❛t ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✳

✷✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥
❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ✇❡ ❧♦♦❦ ❛t t❤❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✬♣✉③③❧❡✬ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✧ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣✧✳ ș♥
t❤✐s ❝❛s❡ t❤❡ ❛♥❛❧②s❡❞ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t② ✭❨✮ ✐s t❤❡ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s✳ ❚ ♦ ❞❡t❡r✲
♠✐♥❡ t❤❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧ ❝❛✉s❡s✴❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ✇❡ t❡st ❤②♣♦t❤❡s✐s
s✉❝❤ ❛s✿
❍✶✿ ș♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐t❤ ✸✵✪ ♦♣t✐♠✐st✐❝ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭ X1✮ ❛♥❞ ✼✵✪ r ❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
✭X2✮ ✇❡ ✇✐❧ ❧ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ♦❢ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ✭ Y1✮✳
❙♦❧✈✐♥❣ t❤✐s ❤②♣♦t❤❡s✐s ✇✐❧❧ ✐♠♠❡❞✐❛t❡❧② s❤♦✇ ❛ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ❡✛❡❝t ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ♦✉r
♣r❡♠✐s❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❞❡s✐r❡❞ ❡✛❡❝ts✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦✉r ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❡♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t ✐s ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐st✐❝
❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛❜❧❡ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ♥❡①t ♠❛❦❡ ❝❧❛✐♠s ❛❜♦✉t ❝❛✉s❛❧✐t② ✳
❚ ♦ t❡st s✉❝❤ ❛ ❤②♣♦t❤❡s✐s ✇❡ ✉s❡ ❛ t♦♦❧ ♥❛♠❡❞ ✬❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r✬✳ ❆♥ ❛❣❡♥t
❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ✐s ❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♣r♦❣r❛♠ t❤❛t s✐♠✉❧❛t❡s t❤❡ ❛❝t✐✈✐t② ♦❢ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ❝♦♠✲
♣♦♥❡♥ts ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✿ t❤❡ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇❤♦ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ s❡♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs✱ t❤❡ ❝❧❡❛r✐♥❣ ❤♦✉s❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s
❞✐s❝♦✈❡r② ✳ ❙t❛rt✐♥❣ ❢♦r ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ♠✐❝r♦ ❧❡✈❡❧ s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ✭❛s✲
s✉♠♣t✐♦♥s X1…Xn ✮ t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ❝♦♠♣✉t❡s✱ ✐♥ ❛ ❞❡❞✉❝t✐✈❡ ♠❛♥♥❡r✱ t❤❡ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s
♦❢ r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥t ♠❛❝r♦s❝♦♣✐❝ ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡s Y1…Ym ✭❧✐❦❡ ♣r✐❝❡s✱ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥ ✈♦❧✉♠❡s✱ r❡t✉r♥s✱
❡t❝✮✳
❲ ❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧✐♥❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥♣✉t ❞❛t❛ Xi ✐♥t♦ ♦✉t♣✉t ❞❛t❛ Yi ✐s
❛ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐st✐❝ ♣r♦❝❡ss✳ ❆♥ ❛❣❡♥t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ✐s ❡q✉✐✈ ❛❧❡♥t t♦ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧
❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ❧✐❦❡✿ ❢ ✭X1…Xn ✮ ❂ ✭Y1…Ym ✮
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐s ❛ ❤✐❣❤❧② ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠ ✐t ✐s ❡①tr❡♠❡❧② ❤❛r❞ t♦
❝r❡❛t❡ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❝❛♣❛❜❧❡ ♦❢ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ ✐t ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ✳ ❋ ♦r t❤✐s r❡❛s♦♥✱
✐♥st❡❛❞ ♦❢ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡ ✇❡ ✉s❡ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♣r♦❣r❛♠ ❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡✳ ❚❤✐s ❧❛♥✲
❣✉❛❣❡ ❤❛s t❤❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t② t♦ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠ ✐♥ ❛ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ ❛♥❞ ✐♥t✉✐t✐✈❡ ❢❛s❤✐♦♥✳
❲ ❡ ♣r♦♣♦s❡ ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠ t❤❛t ❤✐❣❤❧✐❣❤ts t❤❡ ❛❞✈ ❛♥t❛❣❡s ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✲
✉❧❛t♦r✿
• ●✐✈❡♥ ❛ tr ❡ ❡ ❧❡ ❛❢ ✭❧✐❦❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✜❣✉r ❡ ❜ ❡❧♦✇✮ ♣❧❡ ❛s❡ ❞✐s❝ ♦✈❡r ✇❤❛t s♣ ❡ ❝✐❡s ♦❢ tr ❡ ❡
✐t ❜ ❡❧♦♥❣s t♦✳

✷✳✼✳ ❆ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✱ ❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❧✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤✐s st✉❞② ✷✸
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✷✳✶✿ ●❧♦❜❛❧ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ♠❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣②
❯s✐♥❣ ❛ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤✱ ❛ r❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✇♦✉❧❞ ❛♥❛❧②③❡ t❤❡ ❝❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ♦❢ t❤❡
❧❡❛❢ ❛♥❞ ✜♥❞ ♣❛tt❡r♥s s✐♠✐❧❛r t♦ ♦t❤❡r ❦♥♦✇♥✲♦r✐❣✐♥ ❧❡❛❢s✳ ❚❤✐s ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤ ✇♦✉❧❞
✐❞❡♥t✐❢② ❧❡❛❢s ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ♥♦t ❝❛✉s❛❧✐t②✿ ✐❢ t✇♦ ❧❡❛❢s ❧♦♦❦s t❤❡ s❛♠❡
t❤❡② ❜❡❧♦♥❣ t♦ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ t②♣❡ ♦❢ tr❡❡✳ ❯s✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤✱
✇❡ s❡❛r❝❤ ❢♦r ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t tr❡❡ s❡❡❞s ❛♥❞ ❣r♦✇ ❡♥t✐r❡ tr❡❡s ❢r♦♠ t❤❡✐r s❡❡❞s✳ ❲❤❡♥
t❤❡ ❣r♦✇♥ tr❡❡s ❛r❡ ♠❛t✉r❡ ✇❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ ❞✐r❡❝t❧② t❤❡✐r ❧❡❛❢s ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣❛r❡ t❤❡♠ t♦
♦✉r ✉♥❦♥♦✇♥ ❧❡❛❢✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ✇❛② ✇❡ s❤♦✇ ❛ ❝❛✉s❛❧ ❧✐♥❦ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❛ tr❡❡ s❡❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❛
❧❡❛❢✳ ș♥ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t t❤❡ ✬ ❧❡ ❛❢s ✬ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t ✉♥❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛ ✭❧✐❦❡ t❤❡
♦♥❡s ♣r❡s❡♥t❡❞ ✐♥ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ s❡❡❞s ❛r❡ t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❧❡✈❡❧ s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❛
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ✭❧✐❦❡ t❤❡ ❉◆❆ str✐♥❣s ♦❢ ❛ tr❡❡ s❡❡❞✮✳
✷✳✼ ❆ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✱ ❛❞✈ ❛♥t❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❧✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤✐s
st✉❞②
❚❤✐s ❝❤❛♣t❡r ❡①♣❧❛✐♥s t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✱ ❛❞✈ ❛♥t❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❧✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♦✉r
st✉❞② ✳ ❊❛❝❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✐s ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ✐♥ ♠♦r❡ ❞❡t❛✐❧ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t ❝❤❛♣t❡rs✳
▼❛✐♥ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♦✉r st✉❞②✿
• ▼❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ♦♥❧② ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ♦r❞❡rs ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ✣❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛✲
t✐♦♥ ❡①✐sts ❛♥❞ ✐t ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❞✐s❝♦✈❡r❡❞ ❜② ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ș♠♣❧✐❝✐t❧② ✱ ✇❡ ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t
❛❧❧ ♦t❤❡r ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛r❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ✭❜♦♥❞ ♦r ❞❡r✐✈ ❛t✐✈❡s ♠❛r❦❡ts✮ ❛♥❞ ❞♦ ♥♦t ❛✛❡❝t
t❤❡ ❛ss❡ts ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇❡ st✉❞② ✳
• ❚❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠ ❞♦❡s ♥♦t ♣r♦❞✉❝❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❲ ❡ ❛❝❦♥♦✇❧✲
❡❞❣❡ t❤❛t ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡t ❞❡s✐❣♥ ❢❡❛t✉r❡s✱ ❧✐❦❡ t✐❝❦ s✐③❡ ♦r ♦r❞❡r ❧✐❢❡✲t✐♠❡✱ ❝❛♥

✷✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥
✐♠♣❛❝t t❤❡ ❞✐ss✐♣❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t♦ ♣r✐❝❡s✱ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s♦♠❡ ✉♥ ✇ ❛♥ t❡❞
✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡s ♦♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✭❛s r❡♣ ♦rt❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ❈❤✐❛r❡❧❧❛ ❛♥❞ ș♦r✐ ✱ ✷✵✵✷ ✮✮✳
• ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ❛s ❛ ❣r♦✉♣✱ ❧❡❛r♥ ♣❛ss✐✈ ❡❧② t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❛♥ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥❛r② ♣r♦ ❝❡ss✿ ❜❛❞
str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❧♦s❡ ♠♦♥❡② ✇❤✐❧❡ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❡❛r♥ ♠♦♥❡② ✳
• ❆ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❢♦r ❛ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ❡①✐sts✳ ❲ ❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧
❛♥❞ ✉s❡ s✉❝ ❤ ❛ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ t♦ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ❛ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ s❡r✐❡s✳
• ❚❤❡ ♦♥❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ ♦✉r tr❛❞❡❞ ❛ss❡t ✐s ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥✲
❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❖t❤❡r ❡✈ ❡♥ ts ❧✐❦ ❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s❤♦ ❝ ❦s✱ r✉♠♦rs✱ ♦r ♠❛❝r♦ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝
❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ❛❧❧ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡❞ ✐♥ t❤✐s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✭✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐s ❛s✲
s✉♠❡❞ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t✮✳
• ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦ ♥♦t s❡♣❛r❛t❡❧② ❡st✐♠❛t❡ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t r❛t❡s ❛♥❞ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s✳ ❚❤❡②
❞✐r❡❝t❧② ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t❡❞ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s✳ ❚❤✐s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ❞♦ ❡s
♥♦t ✐♠♣❧② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✉s❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t r❛t❡s ♦r ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s✳
• ❲ ❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡ ❛♥❞ ❛♥❛❧②③❡ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ st♦ ❝ ❦ ❛♥❞ ♥♦ ♦t❤❡r
✐♥ t❡r❧✐♥❦ ❡❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✭♦♣t✐♦♥s ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ ❜ ♦♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ ❡t❝✮ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ✇ ❡ ❛ss✉♠❡
t❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇✐♥❣✿
✶✳ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❛✛❡❝t❡❞ ❜ ② ❡✈ ❡♥ ts ❢r♦♠ ♦t❤❡r ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
✷✳ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❢♦ ❝✉s t❤❡✐r ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ♦♥❧② ♦♥ t❤❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ st♦ ❝ ❦
✸✳ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❡q✉❛❧ ❛❝❝❡ss t♦ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ②
❖♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ♦❢ ♦✉r st✉❞② ✐s t❤❛t ✇ ❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t❤❡♦r✐❡s
t❤❛t ❛r❡ s✉st❛✐♥❡❞ ❜ ② ❛ ❞❡❞✉❝t✐✈ ❡ ♣r♦ ♦❢✳ ❚❤✐s ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡s t❤❡ s❝✐❡♥ t✐✜❝ ❢r❛♠❡✇ ♦r❦ ❢♦r
❝❧❡❛r ❛♥❞ ♣r❡❝✐s❡ ❝❛✉s❛❧ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥s✳
❲ ♦r❦✐♥❣ ✇✐t❤ ❛ t♦ ♦❧✱ ❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r✱ t❤❛t ✐s ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ❝♦♥ tr♦❧❧❛❜❧❡ ✇ ❡
❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❢❛❝t♦rs✳ ș♥ ❛ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧
❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤ ✇ ❡ ❛ss✉♠❡ ❛ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✬❝❡t❡r✐s ♣❛r✐❜✉s✬ ❜✉t ✐t ✐s ❤❛r❞ t♦ ✈ ❡r✐❢② s✉❝ ❤ ❛♥
❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥✳ ❲✐t❤ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤ ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ t♦ st♦♣ ♦r ❛❧❧♦ ✇ t❤❡
✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛♥ ② st❛t❡ ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡✳ ❚❤ ✉s ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ♠❛❦ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ✐♥❢❡r❡♥❝❡s ❛❜ ♦✉t
✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥s ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ✈❡r✐t❛s ❝ ❡t❡r✐s ♣ ❛r✐❜✉s ♠❡t❤♦ ❞✳
❲❤❡♥ t❡st✐♥❣ ❛ t❤❡♦r② ✱ ♦✉r ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ ♣r♦ ✈ ❡s ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ✬tr✉t❤✬ ♣r♦♣ ❡rt ② ♦❢
❛ t❤❡♦r❡♠✳ ❆ ❝❧❛ss✐❝ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ ✐♠♣❧✐❝✐t❧② ❛ss✉♠❡s t❤❛t ✐❢ ❛ ♣❤❡✲
♥♦♠❡♥♦♥ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡❞ ❜ ② ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s t❤❛♥ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤✐s
♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥♦♥ ✐♥ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ t❤❡ ❈❛♣✐t❛❧ ❆ss❡t Pr✐❝✐♥❣ ▼♦ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦✲
✈✐❞❡s t❤❡ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❜❛s✐s ❢♦r ♠❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ r✐s❦ ❛♥❞ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♥❣ r❡t✉r♥s✳ ș♥ t❤❡♦r② t❤❡
❈❆P▼ ✐s tr✉❡ ② ❡t ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ t❡sts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s❤♦ ✇♥ t❤❛t ✐ts ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡❞
✐♥ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❚❤ ✉s✱ ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ r❡❛s♦♥s ✇❤ ② ❈❆P▼ ✐s ♥♦t ✈ ❛❧✐❞❛t❡❞ ✐♥ r❡❛❧✐t ② ✐s
❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t st❛t❡s ✐t ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❛tt❛✐♥❛❜❧❡ ✐♥ r❡❛❧✐t ② ✳
❲ ❡ ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠♦st ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡ ♦❢ ♦✉r st✉❞② ✐s t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ②
♦❢ ♣r♦ ✈✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❛tt❛✐♥❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ tr✉❡ t❤❡♦r✐❡s ✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ ❢♦r ❛tt❛✐♥❛❜✐❧✐t ② t♦ ❜ ❡

✷✳✽✳ ❘❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ❛♥❞ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✷✺
r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥ t ✐♥ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s②st❡♠ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t st❛t❡ ❤❛s t♦ ❜ ❡ ❛❝ ❤✐❡✈ ❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ r❡❛s♦♥❛❜❧❡ t✐♠❡
❢r❛♠❡✳ ș❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥ t❡❣r❛t❡s ♥❡✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛tt❡r ♦❢ ② ❡❛rs t❤❛♥
t❤❡ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ tr✉❡ st❛t❡ ♦❢ ✬❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②✬ ✐s ♥♦t ❛tt❛✐♥❛❜❧❡ ✐♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❚❤✐s ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t
♥❡❝❡ss❛r✐❧② ✐♠♣❧② t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐s ♥❡✈ ❡r ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t✱ r❛t❤❡r ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ q✉❛❧✐t ②
♦❢ ✬♥♦✐s② ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②✬ ❛s ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ ❜ ② ❙r♦❢✳ ❍❡r✈ ❡ ❆❧❡①❛♥❞r❡ ✐♥ t❤✐s ❞♦ ❝t♦r❛❧ t❤❡s✐s
✭ ❍❡r✈ ❡ ✱ ✶✾✾✹ ✮✳
❖✉r st✉❞② ❛❧s♦ ❤❛s ❛ ❢❡✇ ❞✐s❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s✳ ❋ r♦♠ ❛ s❝✐❡♥ t✐✜❝ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇ t❤❡r❡
❛r❡ t ✇ ♦ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛t✐❝ ✐ss✉❡s ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ✇ ❡ ✉s❡✿ t❤❡ ❛❝❝✉r❛❝② ♦❢ ♦✉r ❜❛s✐❝
❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✐❞✐t ② ♦❢ ♦✉r ❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r✳ ▼♦st ♦❢ ♦✉r ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s
❛r❡ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡s t♦ ♣❛tt❡r♥s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ t♦ t❤❡ r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢
t❤❡s❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs✳ ❚❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ✇ ❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ s❝✐❡♥ t✐✜❝
✈ ❛❧✐❞✐t ② ✐♥ ♣s②❝ ❤♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ st✉❞✐❡s✳ ❨ ❡t✱ ♦✉r ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs ❛r❡ ❛♥ ✐❞❡❛❧✐st✐❝
r❡✢❡❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✇ ❛ ② r❡❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♠❛❦ ❡ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s✳ ❈♦♥s❡q✉❡♥ t❧② ✱ ✐❢ s♦♠❡ ♦❢ ♦✉r
❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ✢❛ ✇ ❡❞ ♦✉r r❡s✉❧ts ❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦ ❜ ❡ ❢❛❧s❡✳
❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ ✉s❡❞ s✉❝❝❡ss❢✉❧❧② t♦ s♦❧✈ ❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s✳
❲ ❡ ♠❡♥ t✐♦♥ ✐ts ✉s❡ ❜ ② t❤❡ ❆♠❡r✐❝❛♥ ◆❆❙❉ ❆ ◗ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥ ✶✾✾✼✳ ❚❤❡ ♠❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥ t
♦❢ ◆❆❙❉ ❆ ◗ ✇ ❛♥ t❡❞ t♦ r❡❞✉❝❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t t✐❝ ❦ s✐③❡ ❢r♦♠ ✶✴✽ t♦ ✶✴✶✻✳ ș♥ t✉✐t✐✈ ❡❧② ✱ ✐t
s❡❡♠s ❝♦rr❡❝t t❤❛t ✐❢ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ♠♦ ✈ ❡ s♠♦ ♦t❤❡r t❤❛♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t q✉❛❧✐t ② ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ✐♠♣r♦ ✈ ❡❞✳
❚ ♦ ❛ ✈ ♦✐❞ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈ ❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡❛❝t✐♦♥s✱ ◆❆❙❉ ❆ ◗ ❝♦♠♠✐ss✐♦♥❡❞ t❤❡ ❝r❡❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛♥
❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇❤❡r❡ t❤✐s r❡❣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❝♦✉❧❞ ❜ ❡ t❡st❡❞✳ ❚❤❡
r❡s✉❧ts ✇ ❡r❡ s✉r♣r✐s✐♥❣❧② ❝♦✉♥ t❡r✲✐♥ t✉✐t✐✈ ❡✳ ❚❤❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞ t❤❛t ❛ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡
✐♥ t✐❝ ❦ s✐③❡ ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ❤✐♥❞❡r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✬s ❛❜✐❧✐t ② t♦ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ✐♥❡✈✐t❛❜❧②
✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ❜✐❞✲❛s❦ s♣r❡❛❞s✳ ❚❤❡ ◆❆❙❉ ❆ ◗ ❜ ♦❛r❞ ❞❡❝✐❞❡❞ ♥♦t t♦ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡ t✐❝ ❦ s✐③❡✱
♣r♦❜❛❜❧② s❛ ✈✐♥❣ ❛ ❧♦t ♦❢ ♠♦♥❡② ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss✳
✷✳✽ ❘❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t② ❛♥❞ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t②
❚❤r♦✉❣❤♦✉t t❤✐s ✇ ♦r❦ ✇ ❡ r❡❢❡r t♦ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛♥❞ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✳ ❚❤❡ ♣✉r♣ ♦s❡ ♦❢
t❤✐s ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✐s t♦ ♦✛❡r ✐♥s✐❣❤ ts ❢♦r t❤❡ ❛♥s✇ ❡rs t♦ t❤❡s❡ t ✇ ♦ q✉❡st✐♦♥s✿
✶✳ ❲❤❛t ✐s ❛♥ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r❄
✷✳ ❆r❡ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♣r❡s❡♥ t ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts❄
șt ✐s ♥♦ ✇ ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛❝❝❡♣t❡❞ t❤❛t s♦♠❡ tr❛❝❡s ♦❢ ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ ✬✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ②✬ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ s❡❡♥
✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛♥❞ t❤❛t t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ♠♦r❡ ❛♥❞ ♠♦r❡ st✉❞✐❡s ♦♥ t❤✐s t♦♣✐❝✳ șt ✐s
✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t t♦ ♥♦t✐❝❡ t❤❛t ❡✈ ❡♥ t❤♦✉❣❤ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ s❡❡ ❛♥ ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ r❡❝❡♥ t
❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡ t❤❛t ❢♦ ❝✉s❡s ♦♥ ✬❜✐❛s❡s✬ ❛♥❞ ✬✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ②✬ t❤❡r❡ ✐s ♥♦t ❝❧❡❛r ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♠♦♥
❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✇❤❛t ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ♠❡❛♥s ❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦ t♦ ✇❤♦♠ ✐t r❡❢❡rs✳ ș♥ ✭ ❘✉✲
❜✐♥st❡✐♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✶ ✮ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦r ❛r❣✉❡s t❤❛t ❛✱ ✈ ❛❣✉❡✱ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐s
♦❢ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✇❤♦ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇s t❤❡ ❛①✐♦♠s ♦❢ ✭ ❙❛ ✈ ❛❣❡ ✱ ✶✾✺✹ ✮✳ ❚❤✐s ✈✐❡✇✱ ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② s❤❛r❡❞
❜ ② ♠♦st r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs✱ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t ❛ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r tr✐❡s t♦ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ ❤✐s ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞

✷✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥
✉t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ✉s✐♥❣ ✉♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞ s✉❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ ❦ ❡② ❡❧❡♠❡♥ t ♦❢
t❤✐s ✈✐❡✇ ♦♥ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✐s t❤❛t ♦❢ ✉♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞ s✉❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s✱ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✐s
✐♠♠❡❞✐❛t❡❧② t❤♦✉❣❤ t ♦❢ ❛s t❤❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r t❤❛t ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡s ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ✉s✐♥❣ ❜✐❛s❡❞
s✉❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s✳ ❚❤✐s ❧✐♥❡ ♦❢ t❤♦✉❣❤ t✱ ♣✐♦♥❡❡r❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❦s ✭ ❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥ ✱
✶✾✼✸ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❚ ✈ ❡rs❦② ✱ ✶✾✽✹ ✮✱ ❤❛s ❝r❡❛t❡❞ ❛ ♥❡✇ ✜❡❧❞ ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❝❛❧❧❡❞
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ❚❤✐s t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✜❡❧❞ ❢♦ ❝✉s❡s ♦♥ t❤❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r② ❛♥❞ ❛♥❛❧✲
②s✐s ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ s✉❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦ ♦♥ t❤❡ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥s ❢r♦♠ t❤❡
❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ✳ ❉✉❡ t♦ t❤❡s❡ t ✇ ♦ ✇ ❛ ②s✱ ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞
t❤❡ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥s ❢r♦♠ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥✱ ♦❢ ♠❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r✐♥❣
✬✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ②✬ ✇ ❡ ✐♥❢❡r t❤❛t r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ✈✐❡✇ ❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦
t❤❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜✉t ❛❧s♦ ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ♠❡❛♥s ♦❢ ❛❝ ❤✐❡✈✐♥❣ t❤❡s❡
♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s✳
✷✳✽✳✶ ❲❤❛t ✐s ❛♥ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r❄
❆ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ❛s ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t❤❛t t❛❦ ❡s ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ t ✇✐t❤
❛❝ ❤✐❡✈✐♥❣ ❤✐s ✐♠♠❡❞✐❛t❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳ ș♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡✱ ✐t ✐s ♦❢t❡♥ ✐♠♣❧✐❡❞ t❤❛t
t❤❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐s t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤
❛♥❞ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✐s ♠❡❛s✉r❡❞ ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❞♦♥❡ t♦ r❡❛❝ ❤ t❤✐s
❣♦❛❧✳ ❚❤✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❧✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥✱ ♦❢ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✱ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ t❤❡ ❝❛✉s❡
♦❢ ♠❛♥ ② ❢❛❧s❡✲♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ r❡s✉❧ts ✐♥ ❥✉❞❣✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❆s t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡
♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧ ❛t❤❧❡t❡s✱ ✇❤♦ ❞♦ s♣ ♦rts ❢♦r ❛ ❧✐✈✐♥❣✱ ❛♥❞ ❛♠❛t❡✉r ❛t❤❧❡t❡s✱ ✇❤♦ ❞♦ s♣ ♦rts
❢♦r ♣❧❡❛s✉r❡✱ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ✇✐t❤ ❝❧❡❛r ♠♦♥❡t❛r② ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s✱ ❛♥❞
❛❧s♦ ♥♦ ✈✐❝❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ t♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st ♦r tr❛❞❡ ❥✉st ❢♦r t❤❡ t❤r✐❧❧ ♦❢ s❡❡✐♥❣
t❤❡ ✉♣✬s ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❋ r♦♠ t❤✐s ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇✱ ✇ ❡ ❛r❣✉❡ t❤❛t ✐t ✐s ♥♦t ❡❛s② t♦
✜♥❞ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t❤❛t ✐s ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ❤✐s ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳ ▲❡t ✉s ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t
❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✱ ✇✐t❤ ♥♦ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❡❞✉❝❛t✐♦♥✱ ❜✉②s st♦ ❝ ❦s✳ ❍✐s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ✐s
❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❝ ❤❛rts ✭♦r ♥❛♠❡s✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣✉r❝ ❤❛s❡❞ q✉❛♥ t✐t✐❡s ❞❡♣ ❡♥❞ ♦♥ t❤❡
st♦ ❝ ❦s✬ ♣r✐❝❡ q✉♦t❡s✳ ș♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♦❢ ♠❛①✐♠✐③✐♥❣ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢
✇ ❡❛❧t❤✱ s✉❝ ❤ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✳ ❲❤❡♥ ❛s❦ ❡❞✱ ♠♦st ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ❦✐♥❞s
♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs s❛ ② t❤❛t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♥❡✈ ❡r ❤❡❛r❞ ❛❜ ♦✉t ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ❛♥❞ ♣r♦❜❛❜❧② ♥❡✈ ❡r
✉s❡❞ t❤✐s ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ❛♥ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳ ▼♦st ❧✐❦ ❡❧② t❤❡s❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇ ❛♥ t❡❞ t♦ ❧❡❛r♥ ❛❜ ♦✉t
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛♥❞ ♠❛ ②❜ ❡ ❣❛✐♥ s♦♠❡ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤✳ ș♥ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ t❤✐s ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✱ ✇ ❡ s❛ ②
t❤❛t t❤✐s t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐s r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ❤❡ ✐s ❞♦✐♥❣ ❛❝t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ❤❡❧♣ ❤✐♠ ❧❡❛r♥
♠♦r❡ ❛❜ ♦✉t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛♥❞ t❤❛t ❝❛♥ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡ ♦✛❡r ❛ r❡t✉r♥✳ ș♥ ❡①tr❡♠✐s✱ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ s❛ ②
t❤❛t s♦♠❡♦♥❡ t❤❛t ❝♦♠♠✐ts s✉✐❝✐❞❡ ✐s r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❤✐s ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ✭♦❢ ♥♦t
❧✐✈✐♥❣ ❛♥ ②♠♦r❡✮✳ ❲✐t❤ t❤✐s ✐♥ ♠✐♥❞✱ ✐t ✐s ❤❛r❞ t♦ ✜♥❞ s♦♠❡♦♥❡ t❤❛t ✐s ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥
r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❤✐s ♣ ❡rs♦♥❛❧ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s✳ ș♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❛t
✇ ❛♥ t t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ st❡❛❞② r❡t✉r♥s✱ ♦t❤❡rs t❤❛t ✇ ❛♥ t ♥♦t t♦ ❧♦s❡ ♠♦♥❡② ✱ ❛ ❣r♦ ✇✐♥❣ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r
♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❛t ✇ ❛♥ t t♦ ❜ ❡ ❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ♦r ✐♥ ❧✐♥❡ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡✐r r❡❧✐❣✐♦✉s ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s✱ s♦♠❡ ✭✐❢ ♥♦t
♠❛♥ ②✮ t❤❛t ✇ ❛♥ t t♦ ❣❡t ✈ ❡r② r✐❝ ❤ ✭❛s q✉✐❝ ❦ ❛s ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡✮ ❛♥❞ st✐❧❧ ♠❛♥ ② ♦t❤❡r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
✇✐t❤ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s✳ ❙♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s ❝❛♥♥♦t ❡✈ ❡♥ ❜ ❡ q✉❛♥ t✐✜❡❞ ❛♥❞
♠❡❛s✉r❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❤❛r❞ t♦ r❛♥❦ ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈ ❡ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♦❢

✷✳✽✳ ❘❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ❛♥❞ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✷✼
✉t✐❧✐t ② ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥✳ ❋ r♦♠ t❤✐s ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇✱ t❤❡ ✈ ❛st ♠❛ ❥♦r✐t ② ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♠❛❦ ❡
r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡✐r ♦ ✇♥ s✉❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s✳ ș♥ ❛♥ ❛tt❡♠♣t t♦
❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ❛♥❞ ❥✉st✐❢② t❤❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ♦♥❡ s❤♦✉❧❞ ❦ ❡❡♣ ✐♥ ♠✐♥❞ t❤❛t ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❝❛♥ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ❜ ❡ ❜ ❡tt❡r ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❜ ② ❛ ♠✐① ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❛t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t
♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s ✭❛♠♦♥❣ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❢♦✉♥❞✮ r❛t❤❡r t❤❛♥ ❜ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❞♦✐♥❣ ✉♥♣r❡❞✐❝t❛❜❧❡ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✇❤✐❧st ❛❧❧ ❤❛ ✈✐♥❣ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ s✐♥❣❧❡ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈ ❡
♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳
❲ ❡ ❛r❣✉❡❞ t❤❛t ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ r❡❣❛r❞❡❞ ❛s r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ❤✐s ♣ ❡rs♦♥❛❧
♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈ ❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ t❤❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥
♦❢ t❛❦✐♥❣ ♦♥ ♠♦r❡ r✐s❦ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❢♦r ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t❤❛t ❤❛s t❤❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♦❢
♠❛❦✐♥❣ ❛ ❧♦t ♦❢ ♠♦♥❡② ✈ ❡r② ❢❛st ✭✇❤✐❧❡ ❞✐sr❡❣❛r❞✐♥❣ r✐s❦✮✳ ș❢ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✬s ❛❝t✐♦♥s
❛r❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❤✐s ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ✇ ❡ s❛ ② t❤❛t t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐s r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥
r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ❤✐s ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳ șt ✐s ✐♥ t✉✐t✐✈ ❡ t❤❛t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦♥✬t ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ❞♦ t❤❡ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧
❛❝t✐♦♥s ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡✐r ❣♦❛❧s✳ ❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t❤❛t ✇ ❛♥ ts t♦ ♠❛✐♥ t❛✐♥
t❤❡ ♣✉r❝ ❤❛s✐♥❣ ♣ ♦ ✇ ❡r ♦❢ ❤✐s ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ s❤♦✉❧❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st ✐♥ ❛ ❜ ♦♥❞ ♦r ♦t❤❡r s❡❝✉r✐t ② t❤❛t
❣✉❛r❛♥ t❡❡s ❛ r❡t✉r♥ ❡q✉❛❧ t♦ ❛t ❧❡❛st t❤❡ ❛♥♥ ✉❛❧ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ r❛t❡✳ ❆ ❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣❧② ✱ t ✇ ♦
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❛t ❜✉② ❜ ♦♥❞s ✇✐t❤ ❛ ✺✪ r❡t✉r♥ ❛♥❞ r❡s♣ ❡❝t✐✈ ❡❧② ❛ ✸✪ r❡t✉r♥ ❛r❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧
♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✲✇✐s❡ ② ❡t ✇❤❛t ❝❛♥ ✇ ❡ s❛ ② ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡✐r ❛❝t✐♦♥s✲✇✐s❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ②❄ ❖r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞
t❤❛t t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✬ ❝♦✉♥ tr② ❤❛s s❤♦ ✇♥ ❛ ✈ ❡r② st❛❜❧❡ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ r❛t❡ ❛t ❛r♦✉♥❞ ✷✪ ♣ ❡r
② ❡❛r✱ ✇ ❡ s❛ ② t❤❛t ❜ ♦t❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥✲✇✐s❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✳ ș❢ ✇ ❡ ❝♦♠♣❛r❡ t❤❡s❡ t ✇ ♦
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ❛♥♦t❤❡r ♦♥❡ t❤❛t ❜✉②s ❛ ❣♦ ✈ ❡r♥♠❡♥ t ❜ ♦♥❞ ✐♥❞❡①❡❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ ♦✣❝✐❛❧
✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥✲r❛t❡✱ ✇❤❛t ❝❛♥ ✇ ❡ s❛ ② ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ❛❝t✐♦♥s❄ ș♥ ♦✉r ✈✐❡✇✱
✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ s❛ ② t❤❛t ❛❧❧ t❤r❡❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥✲✇✐s❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✱ t❤♦✉❣❤ ❛r❣✉♠❡♥ ts ❝❛♥
❜ ❡ ♠❛❞❡ ❛❜ ♦✉t ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ♦♥❡ ✐s ❜ ❡tt❡r ✲ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❛❝t✐♦♥ ✐s ♠♦r❡ ✧ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✧✳
❲ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ❛s ❜ ❡✐♥❣ r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s ✲ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✲
✇✐s❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✱ ❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✇❤❡♥ r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ ❛❝t✐♦♥s s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ t♦ ❛♥ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡
✲ ❛❝t✐♦♥✲✇✐s❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✳ ❖♥❡ ❝❛♥ s❡❡ t❤❛t ❛♥ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✲✇✐s❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✇✐❧❧
♠❛❦ ❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ r❛♥❦ ❡❞ ❛s ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ✬♠♦r❡✬ ♦r ✬❧❡ss✬ ❝❧♦s❡ t♦ t❤❡ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ ♦❜✲
❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥✳
✷✳✽✳✷ ❆r❡ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♣r❡s❡♥ t ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts❄
❚❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts t❤❡♦r② ✭❊▼❚✮✱ ✜rst ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ❋ ❛♠❛ ✱ ✶✾✼✵ ✮✱ s❛ ②s t❤❛t
✐♥ ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛❧❧ ♥❡✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ✐♠♠❡❞✐❛t❡❧② ❛♥❞ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ✐♥ t❡❣r❛t❡❞
✐♥ t♦ ♣r✐❝❡✳ ș♥ ♦t❤❡r ✇ ♦r❞s✱ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❝♦rr❡❝t ❛♥❞ ❛♥ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝❛♥♥♦t ♠❛❦ ❡
❛❜♥♦r♠❛❧ ♣r♦✜ts ✭♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✮✳ ❚❤✐s t❤❡♦r② ❞♦ ❡s
♥♦t ✐♠♣❧② t❤❛t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛r❡ ♣ ♦♣✉❧❛t❡❞ ❜ ② s♦♠❡ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ❜✉t ✐♥st❡❛❞
✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈ ❡ ✬r❛t✐♦♥❛❧❧②✬ ❛s ❛ ✇❤♦❧❡✳ ❲❤❡♥ r❡❢❡rr✐♥❣ t♦
✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✱ t❤❡ ❊▼❚ ❞❡❢❡♥❞❡rs ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ t❤❛t ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❝❛♥♥♦t s✉r✈✐✈ ❡ ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♥❝❡✱ ❛s ♣ ♦✐♥ t❡❞ ♦✉t ✐♥✐t✐❛❧❧② ✐♥ ✭ ❋ r✐❡❞♠❛♥ ✱ ✶✾✺✸ ✮✱ t❤❡②
✇✐❧❧ ❡①❤❛✉st t❤❡✐r ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ❜❛❞ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s✱ ❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧② ❜ ② ❜✉②✐♥❣ ❛t ❤✐❣❤
♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❛t ❧♦ ✇ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ș♥ t✉✐t✐✈ ❡❧② t❤✐s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ♠❛❦ ❡s ✐♠♠❡❞✐❛t❡ s❡♥s❡✿

✷✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥
r❡♣ ❡❛t❡❞❧② ❜✉②✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❛t ❛ ❧♦ss ✇✐❧❧ ❡①❤❛✉st ♦♥❡✬s ✇ ❡❛❧t❤✳ ❆ t ❛ s❡❝♦♥❞ ❧♦ ♦❦✱
✇ ❡ s❛ ② t❤❛t ✐t ✐s ♥♦t ✈ ❡r② ♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡ t♦ s❡❡ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t❤❛t ✇✐❧❧ ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ❜✉② ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧
❛t ❛ ❧♦ss✳ șt ✐s s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ❧✐❦ ❡❧② t❤❛t ❛❢t❡r ❜✉②✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✱ ❡✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ ✐t ✐s ♦ ✈ ❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞
❛t t❤❡ ♠♦♠❡♥ t ♦❢ ❜✉②✐♥❣✱ ✐ts ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❣♦ ✉♣ ❡✈ ❡♥ ♠♦r❡✳ ❆ r✐s✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡ ❣✐✈ ❡s ❛♥
✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t❤❡ ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t ② ♦❢ ❝❧♦s✐♥❣ ❤✐s ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♣r♦✜t ✲ t❤❛t ❝♦✉❧❞
❤❡❧♣ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ ❡❛r❧✐❡r ❧♦ss❡s✳ șt ✐s ♥♦t ❧✐❦ ❡❧② t❤❛t ❛❧❧ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
✇ ♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t ❝❧♦s❡ ♦✉t ❛ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ ♦r t❤❛t ❛♥ ♦ ✈ ❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞ ❛ss❡t ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t
❜ ❡❝♦♠❡ ❡✈ ❡♥ ♠♦r❡ ♦ ✈ ❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞✳ ș♥❞❡❡❞✱ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ♥ ✉♠❡r♦✉s ❛rt✐❝❧❡s t❤❛t ❜✉✐❧❞ ❛♥❞
t❡st ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ✇✐t❤ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ♣r❡s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡✐r ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s
❝♦♥ tr♦❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ș♥ ✭ ❉❡ ▲♦♥❣ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✶✾✾✶ ✮ ✇ ❡ s❡❡ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts ♦❢ ❛ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦
❛❧❧♦ ❝❛t✐♦♥ ❜ ② ♥♦✐s❡ tr❛❞❡rs ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❝t ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t r❡t✉r♥ ✈ ❛r✐❛♥❝❡s✳ ❚❤❡
❛✉t❤♦rs s❤♦ ✇ t❤❛t t❤❡s❡ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛❝t✐♦♥✲✇✐s❡ tr❛❞❡rs ✭✐♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✬♥♦✐s❡✬
tr❛❞❡rs✮ ❝❛♥ ❡❛r♥ ❤✐❣❤❡r ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s t❤❛♥ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ s✐♠✐❧❛r r✐s❦
❛ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ t❤❡② ❝❛♥ ❡✈ ❡♥ ❛rr✐✈ ❡ t♦ ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳
❯s✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✬ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s✱ ✭ ❊✈ ❛♥s ❉✳ ❛♥❞ ◆❡tt❧❡ ✱ ✷✵✵✸ ✮
❛r❣✉❡s t❤❛t ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❝❛♥ ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② ❜ ❡ ❛♥ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥❛r② ❞❡s✐❣♥ ❢❡❛t✉r❡ r❛t❤❡r
t❤❛♥ ❛ ✢❛ ✇ ♦❢ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥✲♠❛❦✐♥❣✳ ❚❤✐s st✉❞② s❤♦ ✇s t❤❛t ✉♥❞❡r ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❝♦♥✲
❞✐t✐♦♥s ✉♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✉s✐♥❣ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ♦✉t✲
♣ ❡r❢♦r♠❡❞ ❜ ② ❛❣❡♥ ts ✇✐t❤ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ❜✐❛s❡s t❤❛t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ ❞♦ ❝✉♠❡♥ t❡❞ ✐♥ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧
st✉❞✐❡s✳ ❚❤❡ ✐❞❡❛ ♦❢ ✬✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✬ ❛❣❡♥ ts s✉r✈✐✈✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❛ ❝♦♠♣ ❡t✐t✐✈ ❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐s ❝♦✉♥ t❡r✲
✐♥ t✉✐t✐✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ✐t ✐♠♠❡❞✐❛t❡❧② r❛✐s❡s ❝r✐t✐❝s✳ ❲ ❡ t❤✐♥❦ t❤❛t ♠♦st ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝r✐t✐❝ ❢♦r t❤❡
s✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ♦❢ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✐s ❞✉❡ t♦ ❝♦♥❢✉s✐♦♥ ✐♥ t❡r♠s✳ ❲ ❡ ❧♦ ♦❦ ✜rst ❛t t❤❡ ♦r✐❣✐♥s ♦❢
❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥❛r② r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛♥❞ t❤❛♥ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ✇❤ ② t❤❡s❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t ❞♦♥✬t ❛♣♣❧② ✐♥
r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳
❈❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✬r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ②✬ ❤❛s ❜ ❡❡♥ ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ❛s ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❛♥
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ♦♥❡ s❤♦✉❧❞ t❛❦ ❡ ✇❤✐❧st tr②✐♥❣ t♦ ❛❝ ❤✐❡✈ ❡
t❤❡ ❣♦❛❧ ♦❢ ♠❛①✐♠✐③✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ❤✐s ✇ ❡❛❧t❤✳ ❚❤❡ ♣✐♦♥❡❡r✐♥❣ ✇ ♦r❦
♦❢ ✭ ▼✉t❤ ✱ ✶✾✻✶ ✮✱ ✭ ❘❛❞♥❡r ✱ ✶✾✼✷ ✮ ✱✭ ▲✉❝❛s✱ ❘♦❜ ❡rt ❊ ✱ ✶✾✼✽ ✮ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♣✉t t❤❡ ♥♦t✐♦♥ ♦❢
r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ t❤❡ ❝❡♥ t❡r ♦❢ ❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ș♥ ♦r❞❡r ❢♦r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t♦
♣ ♦rtr❛ ② ❛♥❞ ❡①♣❧♦✐t r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s t❤❡② ♠ ✉st ❜ ❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r t❤❡ tr✉❡
❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ✐♥ t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠ ② ✲ ♦t❤❡r✇✐s❡✱ ❛s ♣ ♦✐♥ t❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ●✐❧❜ ♦❛ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱
✷✵✵✾ ✮ t❤❡r❡ ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t ♠ ✉❝ ❤ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ❜ ❡❤✐♥❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ❇❛ ② ❡s✐❛♥ r✉❧❡ ✐♥ ♠❛❦✐♥❣
❛ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ✭❢♦ ♦t♥♦t❡ ✲ ❜ ❡tt❡r ♥♦t ❞❡❝✐❞❡ ❛t ❛❧❧✮✳ ❚ ♦ ❞❡❢❡♥❞ t❤✐s ✐❞❡❛✱ ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❦♥♦ ✇✐♥❣ ✭♦r ❣❡tt✐♥❣ t♦ ❦♥♦ ✇✮ t❤❡ tr✉❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ♦❢ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✱ ✭ ❆❧❝ ❤✐❛♥ ✱
✶✾✺✵ ✮✱ ✭ ❊♥❦ ❡ ✱ ✶✾✺✶ ✮✱ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❋ r✐❡❞♠❛♥ ✱ ✶✾✺✸ ✮ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❛r❣✉❡❞ t❤❡ ✐❞❡❛ ♦❢
♥❛t✉r❛❧ s❡❧❡❝t✐♦♥ ✭♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s❡❧❡❝t✐♦♥ ❤ ②♣ ♦t❤❡s✐s✮✳ ș♥ ❛ s✐♠✐❧❛r ✇ ❛ ② ✱ ✭ ❈♦ ♦t♥❡r ✱
✶✾✻✹ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❋ ❛♠❛ ✱ ✶✾✻✺ ✮ ❛r❣✉❡❞ t❤❛t ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ✬❜❛❞✬ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢
✭♦r ✇✐t❤ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s✮ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ❞r✐✈ ❡♥ ♦✉t ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✭t❤❡② ✇✐❧❧ ❧♦ ♦s❡ t❤❡✐r
♠♦♥❡② ❛♥❞ ✇✐❧❧ ♥♦t ❜ ❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❣❡t ♥❡✇ ♦♥❡s✮ ❜ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s✳
❆ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞ t❤❛t t❤✐s ❤ ②♣ ♦t❤❡s✐s ♦❢ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ s❡❧❡❝t✐♦♥
✭♦r ♠❛r❦ ❡t s❡❧❡❝t✐♦♥✮ ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ❤♦❧❞✳ ✭ ❉❡ ▲♦♥❣ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✶✾✾✶ ✮ ❤❛s s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞
t❤❛t ✉s✐♥❣ ♣❧❛✉s✐❜❧❡ ❜✐❛s❡s✱ ♥♦✐s❡ tr❛❞❡rs ❝❛♥ s✉r✈✐✈ ❡ ❛s ❛ ❣r♦✉♣✱ ❡❛r♥ ❤✐❣❤❡r r❡t✉r♥s

✷✳✾✳ ❆ ✈ ❡r② s❤♦rt ❤✐st♦r② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✷✾
t❤❛♥ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ❡♥ ❜ ❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ ✐♥ t❡r♠s ♦❢ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤✱
✐♥ t❤❡ ❧♦♥❣ r✉♥✳ ❙✐♠✐❧❛r❧② ✱ ✭ ❇❧✉♠❡ ❛♥❞ ❊❛s❧❡② ✱ ✷✵✵✶ ✮ ❛r❣✉❡s t❤❛t ✐♥ ❛♥ ✐♥❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡
♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ❝❛♥ s✉r✈✐✈ ❡✳ ❚❤✐s r❡s✉❧t✱ ❛s ❛r❣✉❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t
❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡♥❡ss ✐s ♥❛t✉r❛❧✳
❆s ✇ ❡ ♣ ♦✐♥ t❡❞ ♦✉t ✐♥ t❤❡ ✜rst ♣❛rt ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛rt✐❝❧❡✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t
♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s ✐♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛♥❞ t❤❡✐r ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡✐r ♣ ❡rs♦♥❛❧
♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s ❛♥❞ ♥♦t ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ❛ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈ ❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳ ❙♦✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ❛♣♣❛r❡♥ t❧②
✬✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✬ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs ♣ ❡rs✐st ✐♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❡✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ t❤❡✐r ❣♦❛❧s ❛r❡ ♥♦t t❤♦s❡ ♦❢ ✉t✐❧✐t ②
♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♦r t❤❡✐r ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ t♦ t❤❡ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈ ❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳ ș♥
r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧ ♠❛♥❛❣❡rs ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞s ❛r❡ ❜ ❡♥❝ ❤♠❛r❦ ❡❞ ♦♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
✐♥❞❡①❡s ♦r r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ t♦ ♦t❤❡r s✐♠✐❧❛r ♠❛♥❛❣❡rs ♦r ❢✉♥❞s✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ♠♦♥❡② ❝♦♥ tr♦❧❧❡❞
❜ ② ✬❧❡ss✲♣ ❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣✬ ♠❛♥❛❣❡rs ✢♦ ✇ t♦ ✬♠♦r❡✲♣ ❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣✬ ♠❛♥❛❣❡rs✳ ❲❤❡♥ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r
❛ss❡ts ❛r❡ ♦ ✈ ❡r♣r✐❝❡❞✱ s♦♠❡ ❢✉♥❞s ❝❛♥ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❡①❝❡ss r❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞ ❛ttr❛❝t ♠♦r❡ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧
✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐s ❧♦st ❜ ② ❢✉♥❞s t❤❛t ♠❛ ② ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❤❛❞ t❤❡ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈ ❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ ✐♥ ✭ ❨ ❛♥ ✱
✷✵✵✽ ✮ ✐t ✐s ❛r❣✉❡❞ t❤❛t ❡✈ ❡♥ ✇❤❡♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♦r ❢✉♥❞s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈ ❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡
❛❝❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡❞ ❜ ② s✉❜✲♦♣t✐♠❛❧ ❛❝t✐♦♥s✱ t❤❡✐r ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥❛r② ❞✐s❛♣♣ ❡❛r❛♥❝❡ ❢r♦♠ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
✇✐❧❧ t❛❦ ❡ ❛ ❧♦t ♦❢ t✐♠❡ ✲ ❧♦♥❣ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ ❢♦r ♥❡✇ ❣❡♥❡r❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ s✐♠✐❧❛r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t♦ ❡♥ t❡r
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❍❛ ✈✐♥❣ ❛r❣✉❡❞ t❤❛t s♦♠❡ ❢♦r♠s ♦❢ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ❝❛♥ ♣ ❡rs✐st ✐♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱
✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ♥❡①t ❞✐s❝✉ss ❛❜ ♦✉t ♠♦ ❞❡❧❧✐♥❣ t❤✐s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✐♥ t♦ ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ st✉❞✐❡s✳
✷✳✾ ❆ ✈❡r② s❤♦rt ❤✐st♦r② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts r❡s❡❛r❝❤
❖✉r st✉❞② ✉s❡s t❤❡ t♦ ♦❧s ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣✉t❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ✐s ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ t❤❡♦r② ♦❢
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ❚❤✐s ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ♣r❡s❡♥ ts ❛ s❤♦rt ❤✐st♦r② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤
❛♥❞ ❤✐❣❤❧✐❣❤ ts t❤❡ ♣❧❛❝❡ ♦❢ ♦✉r ✇ ♦r❦ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡r♥ ❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t❤❡♦r✐❡s✳
❖♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡❛r❧✐❡st ♠♦ ❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✇ ❛s ❝r❡❛t❡❞ ✐♥ ❆♥ t ✇ ❡r♣✱ ❇❡❧❣✐✉♠ ✐♥
✶✺✸✶✳ ș♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❧❡♥❞❡rs ❛♥❞ ❜r♦❦ ❡rs ♠❡❡t t❤❡r❡ t♦ ❡①❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ❣♦ ✈ ❡r♥♠❡♥ t✱ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②
❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❞❡❜t ♥♦t❡s✳ ❙✐♥❝❡ t❤❛♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❝♦♥st❛♥ t❧② ❣r♦ ✇♥
❛♥❞ ❡✈ ♦❧✈ ❡❞✳ ❚❤❡ t♦t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❧❞✬s ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦✱ ❝♦♠♣r✐s✐♥❣ ❡q✉✐t ② ♠❛r❦ ❡t
❝❛♣✐t❛❧✐③❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ♦✉tst❛♥❞✐♥❣ ❜ ♦♥❞s ❛♥❞ ❧♦❛♥s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡❞ ❢r♦♠ ✧✩✶✼✺ tr✐❧ ❧✐♦♥
✐♥ ✷✵✵✽ t♦ ✩✷✶✷ tr✐❧ ❧✐♦♥ ❛t t❤❡ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ ✷✵✶✵✱ s✉r♣ ❛ss✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣r ❡✈✐♦✉s ✷✵✵✼ ♣ ❡ ❛❦✧
❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ ❛ r❡♣ ♦rt ❜ ② t❤❡ ▼❝❑✐♥s❡② ●❧♦❜❛❧ ș♥st✐t✉t❡ ❢r♦♠ ❆✉❣✉st ✷✵✶✶✳ ș❢ ✇ ❡
t❛❦ ❡ ✐♥ t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥ t t❤❡ ❢❛❝t t❤❛t t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❧❞✬s ●❉❖ ✐♥ ✷✵✶✵ ✇ ❛s ✩✼✹✳✺✹ tr✐❧❧✐♦♥ ✇ ❡
❝❛♥ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ t❤❡ ✈✐t❛❧ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ♠❛❣♥✐t✉❞❡
✐♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t ② ✱ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❝♦♠❡ ❛ ❝r✐t✐❝❛❧ ✐♥❢r❛str✉❝t✉r❡ ♦❢ ♦✉r
s♦ ❝✐❡t ② ✳ ❈♦♥s❡q✉❡♥ t❧② ✱ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛r❡ ❛♥❞ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ ❢♦r ❛ ❧♦♥❣ t✐♠❡ t❤❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t
♦❢ ❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤✳
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♥❛t✉r❡ ♦❢ ❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❢♦ ❝✉s❡s ♠❛✐♥❧② ♦♥ ♣❛st ♦❜s❡r✲
✈ ❛t✐♦♥s✱ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ❤❛s ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ❧♦ ♦❦ ❡❞ t♦ ❛♥❛❧②s❡✱ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t ❛♥❞ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣♠❡♥ ts✳ ❇❡❢♦r❡ ✶✾✺✵✱ ♠♦st ♦❢ t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❦ ❞♦♥❡ ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✇ ❛s
❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐✈ ❡✳ ❚❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ s♦♠❡ ♥♦t❛❜❧❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs✱ ❜ ❡❢♦r❡ ✶✾✺✵✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❡♥❣❛❣❡❞ ✐♥ ♠♦r❡

✸✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥
❛①✐♦♠❛t✐❝ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤❡s t♦ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ❆♠♦♥❣ t❤❡s❡ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ♠❡♥ t✐♦♥ ✭ ❋✐s❤❡r ✱
✶✾✷✺ ✮ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥s ❛ t❤❡♦r② ♦❢ ✐♥ t❡r❡st r❛t❡s ❛♥❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥ t❡r♥❛❧ r❛t❡ ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥✱
✭ ❲✐❧❧✐❛♠s ✱ ✶✾✸✽ ✮ t❤❛t ♠♦ ❞❡❧❧❡❞ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛s ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t❡❞
❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤ ♣❛ ②♠❡♥ ts ✭❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s✮ ♦r ✭ ❇❛❝ ❤❡❧✐❡r ✱ ✶✾✵✵ ✮ t❤❛t ♣✉❜❧✐s❤❡❞ ✐♥ t❤✐s ❞♦ ❝✲
t♦r❛❧ t❤❡s✐s ❛ t❤❡♦r② ♦♥ r❛♥❞♦♠ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♣r✐❝❡ ♠♦ ✈ ❡♠❡♥ ts ❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦ s❡t t❤❡ ❢r❛♠❡✇ ♦r❦
♦❢ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❛❜str❛❝t✐♦♥ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ t❤❡ ❲✐❡♥❡r ❙r♦ ❝❡ss✳
❆❢t❡r ✶✾✺✵ t❤❡ ♥❡♦ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❡r❛ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❜ ❡❣❛♥✳ ❚❤❡ ❜ ❡❣✐♥♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ t❤✐s ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞
✇ ❛s ♠❛r❦ ❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❦s ♦❢ ✭ ▼❛r❦ ♦ ✇✐t③ ✱ ✶✾✺✷ ✮ ♦♥ ❙ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❚❤❡♦r② ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡❞ ❜ ②
✭ ❚ ♦❜✐♥ ✱ ✶✾✺✻ ✮ ✇✐t❤ ❤✐s t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❡①t❡♥s✐♦♥s ♦♥ t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ❢r♦♥ t✐❡r ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧
♠❛r❦ ❡t ❧✐♥❡✳ ❆❧t❤♦✉❣❤ r❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥❛r② ❛t t❤❡✐r t✐♠❡✱ t❤❡s❡ t❤❡♦r✐❡s ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡❞ ♠❡t❤✲
♦ ❞s ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ✈ ❡r② str✐❝t ❤ ②♣ ♦t❤❡s✐s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❤❛r❞ t♦ ❜ ❡ ♠❡❡t ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳
❖t❤❡r r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs ❜❛s❡❞ t❤❡✐r ✇ ♦r❦ ♦♥ ❛ ♥❡✇ ❢♦✉♥❞✐♥❣ t❤❡♦r② ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ t❤❡
❈❛♣✐t❛❧ ❆ss❡t ❙r✐❝✐♥❣ ▼❡t❤♦ ❞✳ ❚❤❡ ❈❆❙▼✱ ❝r❡❛t❡❞ s❡♣❛r❛t❡❧② ❜ ② ✭ ❙❤❛r♣ ❡ ✱ ✶✾✻✹ ✮✱
✭ ▲✐♥ t♥❡r ✱ ✶✾✻✺ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ▼♦ss✐♥ ✱ ✶✾✻✻ ✮✱ ♦✛❡rs ❛ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ ❢♦r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t♦ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ s❡❝✉r✐t✐❡s✳
❊✈ ❡♥ t♦ ❞❛ ② t❤❡ ❈❆❙▼ ✐s ❞❡❜❛t❡❞ ❛♥❞ ♥ ✉♠❡r♦✉s st✉❞✐❡s ♦✛❡r ♣r♦ ♦❢ ❢♦r ♦r ❛❣❛✐♥st
t❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✐❞✐t ② ♦❢ t❤✐s t❤❡♦r② ✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♥♦♥✲❛①✐♦♠❛t✐❝ q✉❛❧✐t ② ♦❢ s♦ ❝✐❛❧ s❝✐❡♥❝❡s
✐♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✐♥ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r✱ ❛ t❤❡♦r② ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❛r❣✉❡❞ ❜ ♦t❤ ✇ ❛ ②s ✇✐t❤♦✉t
❛♥ ② ♦♥❡ ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❞❡❝❧❛r❡ ❛ ❝❧❡❛r ✇✐♥♥✐♥❣ ❛r❣✉♠❡♥ t✳ ❊✈ ❡♥ s♦✱ t❤❡ ❈❆❙▼ ❤❛s ❛t
✐ts ❝♦r❡ ❛ s❡t ♦❢ str♦♥❣ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❧✐❦ ❡✿ ❛❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛♥❞ r✐s❦✲❛ ✈ ❡rs❡
❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ❜r♦❛❞❧② ❞✐✈ ❡rs✐✜❡❞ ❛❝r♦ss ❛ r❛♥❣❡ ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ ts✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✱ ❛♥❞
❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧② t❤❡ ♦♥❡ ✐♠♣❧②✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ r❡❝❡♥ t❧②
s❝r✉t✐♥✐③❡❞ ❜ ② ❛ s❡r✐❡s ♦❢ st✉❞✐❡s ✐♥ t❤❡ ✜❡❧❞s ♦❢ ♣s②❝ ❤♦❧♦❣② ❛♥❞ s♦ ❝✐♦❧♦❣② ✳ ❙✐♥❝❡ t❤❡
✬✼✵ ② ❡❛rs✱ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs ❧✐❦ ❡ ❉❛♥✐❡❧ ❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❆♠♦s ❚ ✈ ❡rs❦② ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤✲
✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈ ❡ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❡rr♦rs ♠❛❞❡ ❜ ② ❤ ✉♠❛♥s ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss ♦❢ r✐s❦②
❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ♠❛❦✐♥❣✳ ș♥ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ t❤❡ ◆♦❜ ❡❧ ❙r✐③❡ ❢♦r ❊❝♦♥♦♠ ② ❛ ✇ ❛r❞❡❞ ✐♥ ✷✵✵✷ ❢♦r ✭ ❑❛❤✲
♥❡♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❚ ✈ ❡rs❦② ✱ ✶✾✼✾ ✮ ✇ ♦r❦ ♦♥ ✧Pr ♦s♣ ❡ ❝t ❚❤❡ ♦r②✧ ✱ ✇ ❡ s❡❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝
❝♦♠♠ ✉♥✐t ② ❛❝ ❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣❡❞ t❤❡ ✐♥❝♦♥s✐st❡♥❝✐❡s ♦❢ s♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❢♦✉♥❞✲
✐♥❣ t❤❡♦r✐❡s✬ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ r❡❛❧✐t✐❡s ♦❢ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r
✐♥ r✐s❦✲r❡❧❛t❡❞ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❋ r♦♠ t❤❡s❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r✐❡s ❛ ♥❡✇ ✜❡❧❞ ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✇ ❛s
❝r❡❛t❡❞✱ ♥❛♠❡❧② ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ❋ ♦r ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡ r❡✈✐❡✇ ♦♥ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧
✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✇ ❡ r❡❝♦♠♠❡♥❞ t❤❡ ✇r✐t✐♥❣s ♦❢ ✭ ❍✐rs❤❧❡✐❢❡r ❛♥❞ ❚ ❡♦❤ ✱ ✷✵✵✸ ✮✱ ✭ ❇❛r❜ ❡r✐s ❛♥❞
❚❤❛❧❡r ✱ ✷✵✵✸ ✮✱ ✭ ❙✉❜r❛❤♠❛♥ ② ❛♠ ✱ ✷✵✵✽ ✮✳
✷✳✶✵ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ❝❤❛♣t❡r
ș♥ t❤✐s ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✇ ❡ ♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ t❤❡ s♦ ❝✐❛❧ ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝♦♥ t❡①t t❤❛t ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t❡s ♦✉r
st✉❞② ✳ ❆s ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡❞ ❜ ② ♦✉r r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s✱ ✇ ❡ ❡①♣❧♦r❡ t❤❡ ❝❛✉s❛❧ ❧✐♥❦s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ s❡r✐❡s ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❲ ❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ t❤❡
♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ✇ ❡ ✉s❡✱ ❞❡t❛✐❧✐♥❣ ✐ts ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✱ ❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s✳ ❲ ❡
❡♥❞ t❤✐s ✜rst ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✇✐t❤ ❛ s❤♦rt ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ❛❝t✐♦♥✲✇✐s❡ r❛t✐♦✲
♥❛❧✐t ② ❛♥❞ ❛ s❤♦rt ❤✐st♦r② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤✳ ❚❤❡ ♦r❣❛♥✐s❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ r❡st ♦❢ t❤❡
❞♦ ❝✉♠❡♥ t ✐s ❛s ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇s✳

✷✳✶✵✳ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✸✶
ș♥ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷ ✇ ❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t ✇ ❡ st✉❞②✿ ❤♦ ✇ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❢♦r♠ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ❤♦ ✇ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝♦♥str✉❝t t❤❡✐r ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ s❡♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs✳
❲ ❡ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡ ✇✐t❤ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ♣r♦ ♦❢ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✬♣✉③③❧❡s✬ ✇ ❡ s❡❡❦ t♦ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥✳ ș♥
t❤❡ ❧❛st ♣❛rt ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✇ ❡ ❞✐s❝✉ss t❤❡ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❢♦✉♥❞❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♦✉r r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤✳
ș♥ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✸ ✇ ❡ ❣✐✈ ❡ ✐♥✲❞❡♣t❤ ❞❡t❛✐❧s ❛❜ ♦✉t ✇❤❛t ✐s ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ❛♥❞ ✇ ❡ r❡✈✐❡✇ t❤❡ r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥ t ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡✳ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹ ♣r❡s❡♥ ts t❤❡
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✇ ❡ ❜✉✐❧t ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❝✉ss❡s t❤❡ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ✉s❡❞ ❢♦r t❡st✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❝❛❧✐❜r❛t✐♦♥✳
❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺ ♣r❡s❡♥ ts s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ r✉♥s ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ ❛♥s✇ ❡rs t♦ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡s✲
t✐♦♥s✳❈❤❛♣t❡r ✼ ♣r❡s❡♥ ts ❛ ❝❛s❡✲st✉❞② ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♦✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ❛s ❛ t♦ ♦❧ ❢♦r
r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s✳ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✽ ❞r❛ ✇s t❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s✱ r❡st❛t❡s ♦✉r
✜♥❞✐♥❣s ❛♥❞ ♦✛❡rs ❤✐♥ ts t♦ ❢✉t✉r❡ ✇ ♦r❦✳

❈❤❛♣t❡r ✸
❖❜❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞②
❈♦♥t❡♥ts
✸✳✶ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✹
✸✳✷ ❆s②♠♠❡tr② ❛♥❞ q✉❛❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✻
✸✳✸ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✽
✸✳✹ ❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✾
✸✳✺ Pr✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✶
✸✳✻ Pr✐❝❡ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✸
✸✳✼ ❈❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤❡s t♦ st✉❞②✐♥❣ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✼
✸✳✽ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✽
ș♥ t❤✐s ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✇ ❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s t❤❛t ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡ t❤❡ s②st❡♠
✇ ❡ st✉❞②✿ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❲ ❡ ✈✐❡✇ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❧✐❦ ❡ ❛ s②st❡♠
❝♦♠♣ ♦s❡❞ ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ❡❧❡♠❡♥ ts✿ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ s♦✉r❝❡s✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ♦r❞❡rs✱ ♣r✐❝❡
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠s ❛♥❞ tr❛♥s♠✐ss✐♦♥ ♠❡❞✐❛✳ ▲♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ♦♥❧② ❛t ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱
✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ✈✐❡✇ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛s ❛ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s s②st❡♠ t❤❛t ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡s ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t
s♦✉r❝❡s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ✈✐❛ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❡rs ✭t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✮✱ ✐♥ t♦ ❛♥ ♦✉t♣✉t ❝❛❧❧❡❞
t❤❡ ✬♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✬✳
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❋✐❣✉r❡ ✸✳✶✿ ●❧♦❜❛❧ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣②

✸✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✸✳ ❖❜ ❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞②
ș♥ t❤✐s ✇ ♦r❦ ✇ ❡ ❢♦ ❝✉s ♦♥ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ ♣❛rt ♦❢ t❤✐s s②st❡♠✿ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱
✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♠❛❞❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t ❤♦ ✇ ♦t❤❡r ♣❛rts ♦❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇ ♦r❦s✳ ❚❤❡
❢♦❧❧♦ ✇✐♥❣ ♣❛r❛❣r❛♣❤s ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡ ♦✉r ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥s ❝♦♥st✐t✉t❡ t❤❡
❜❛s✐s ♦❢ ❛ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r t❤❛t ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡s ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳
✸✳✶ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s
❚❤❡ ❜❛s✐❝ ✐♥❣r❡❞✐❡♥ t t❤❛t ❢✉❡❧s ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❲ ❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ♦♥❧②
t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ r❡❣❛r❞✐♥❣ ♦♥❡ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ❛ss❡t ❢r♦♠ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✭❡①✿ ❛ st♦ ❝ ❦✮✳
❖✉r ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❡①t❡♥❞❡❞ t♦ s✉♣♣ ♦rt ♠ ✉❧t✐♣❧❡ ❛ss❡ts ❛♥❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ s♦✉r❝❡s✳
❆ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②✬s st♦ ❝ ❦ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐s ❝♦♠♣✉t❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❛❝t✉❛❧✐s❡❞ ❢✉t✉r❡
❝❛s❤ ✢♦ ✇s t❤❛t ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ r❡❧❡❛s❡❞ t♦ st♦ ❝ ❦❤♦❧❞❡rs ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②✬s ❛ss❡ts ✭s❡❡
❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ✷✳✶ ✮✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤ ✢♦ ✇s ❛r❡ ❡st✐♠❛t❡❞✱ ❜ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ✉s✐♥❣ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ t❤❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❛s♣ ❡❝ts ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②✿
• ❊❝ ♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✿ ✇❤❛t ❞♦ ❡s t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ♣r♦ ❞✉❝❡✱ ❛t ✇❤❛t ❝♦sts ✭✜①❡❞
❛♥❞✴♦r ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡✮
• ▼❛r❦❡t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✿ ✇❤❛t ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②✬s
♣r♦ ❞✉❝ts
• ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✿ ❤♦ ✇ ✐s t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ✜♥❛♥❝❡❞✱ ✐s ✐t ✐♥ ❞❡❜t✱ ✇❤❛t ✐s t❤❡
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ✐t ✇✐❧❧ ❣♦ ❜❛♥❦r✉♣t ✐❢ s♦♠❡t❤✐♥❣ ✉♥❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥s
• ▼❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✿ ❤♦ ✇ ❞♦ ♠❛♥❛❣❡rs ✉s❡ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②✬s ❛ss❡ts❄ ❆r❡
t❤❡② ❞♦✐♥❣ t❤❡✐r ❜ ❡st t♦ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②✬s ♥❡t ♣r♦✜ts❄ ❆r❡ t❤❡② s❡❧❧✐♥❣
t❤❡✐r ♣r✐✈ ❛t❡ st♦ ❝ ❦s ✭✐♥s✐❞❡r tr❛❞✐♥❣✮❄
❑♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣❡ ♦❢ ❛❧❧ t❤❡s❡ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ✉s❡❞ t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❢✉t✉r❡
❝❛s❤ ✢♦ ✇s✳ ❚❤❡ s❤❡❡r ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ♥❡❝❡ss❛r② t♦ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ♦♥❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ✱
✐s ✐♠♣r❡ss✐✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ✐t ✐s ♥♦t ❡❛s② ❢♦r ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t♦ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❛♥❞ ❦ ❡❡♣ ✉♣ ✇✐t❤ ❛❧❧
t❤❡ r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥ t ❞❡t❛✐❧s ♥❡❡❞❡❞ ❢♦r ❝♦rr❡❝t ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ s♦♠❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs r❡❧② ♦♥
❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈ ❡ s♦✉r❝❡s ♦❢ ✬❤✐❣❤❡r✲❧❡✈ ❡❧✬ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❧✐❦ ❡✱ s❡❡ ✭ ❆❜r❡✉ ❛♥❞ ▼❡♥❞❡s ✱ ✷✵✶✶ ✮
♦r ✭ ❇❡❜ ❝③✉❦ ✱ ✷✵✵✸ ✮ ❢♦r r❡✈✐❡✇s✿
• ❆♥❛❧②st✬s r❡♣ ♦rts ❛♥❞ r❡❝♦♠♠❡♥❞❛t✐♦♥s
• ✸ ❡❡r ♦♣✐♥✐♦♥s
• ❚ ❡❝ ❤♥✐❝❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②sts✱❛s r❡♣ ♦rt❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ❇❛rr② ❛♥❞ ❏❡♥♥✐♥❣s ✱ ✶✾✾✷ ✮✱ ✇✐t❤ s♦❧✐❞ ✜♥❛♥✲
❝✐❛❧ ❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣❡✱ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ r❡❣✉❧❛r ❡st✐♠❛t❡s ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡s✬ st♦ ❝ ❦ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳ ❚❤❡✐r ❥♦❜ ✐s t♦

✸✳✶✳ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✸✺
❞✐❣❡st ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ t♦ ✇r✐t❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t r❡♣ ♦rts ❛♥❞ r❡❝♦♠♠❡♥❞❛✲
t✐♦♥s✳ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♦❢t❡♥ ✉s❡ t❤❡s❡ r❡❝♦♠♠❡♥❞❛t✐♦♥s t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ t❤❡✐r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s
❛♥❞ ✉♣ ❞❛t❡ t❤❡✐r ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦s✳ ❚❤❡ ❛❝❝✉r❛❝② ♦❢ ❛♥❛❧②st r❡❝♦♠♠❡♥❞❛t✐♦♥s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ♠✐s✲
❧❡❛❞✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ✐s ❛ ❝❛t❛❧②st ❢♦r t❤❡ ❞✐st♦rt✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ◆✉♠❡r♦✉s r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤
st✉❞✐❡s ❢♦ ❝✉s❡❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ s✉❝ ❤ r❡❝♦♠♠❡♥❞❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ t❤❡② s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞ t❤❛t
❛♥❛❧②st ♦♣✐♥✐♦♥s ❝❛♥ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s ❜❛❞ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✳ ❋ ♦r ❛
❣♦ ♦ ❞ r❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②sts✬ r❡❝♦♠♠❡♥❞❛t✐♦♥s ✇ ❡ s✉❣❣❡st❡❞
r❡❛❞✐♥❣ ✭ ❘❛♠♥❛t❤ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✻ ✮✳
❆s ❛♥ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈ ❡ t♦ ❛♥❛❧②st r❡❝♦♠♠❡♥❞❛t✐♦♥s✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✉s❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦✲
✈✐❞❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡✐r ♣ ❡❡rs✱ s❡❡ ✭ ❈❤❛♥❣ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✵ ✮✳ ș♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡ t❤✐s
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✬♠✐♠❡t✐❝✬✱ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐❣♥♦r❡s ♦t❤❡r s♦✉r❝❡s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛✲
t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❜❛s❡s ❤✐s ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ♦♥ t❤❡ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛♥♦t❤❡r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✳ ❙✉❝ ❤ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r
✐s ❥✉st✐✜❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ❢❛❝t t❤❛t s♦♠❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭❡①✿ ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ♠❛♥❛❣❡rs t❤❛t ❞✐s❝❧♦s❡ t❤❡✐r
r❡s✉❧ts✮ s❤♦ ✇ ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ t❧② ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♣ ❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡✳ șt s❡❡♠s ♥❛t✉r❛❧ t❤❛t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs s❡❡❦
t♦ ✐♠✐t❛t❡ t❤❡ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❝♦♥st❛♥ t ✇✐♥♥❡rs ✭❛♥❞ ❤♦♣ ❡ t♦ ❛❝ ❤✐❡✈ ❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ r❡s✉❧ts✮✳
❚❤✐s ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❝❛♥ ❧❡❛❞✱ ✐♥ ❡①tr❡♠✐s✱ t♦ ♣r✐❝❡s ✇❤✐❝ ❤ r❡✢❡❝t t❤❡ ♦♣✐♥✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ s✐♥✲
❣❧❡ ❣r♦✉♣ ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ❛r❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧s✳ ❚❤✐s ✇ ❛s t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ✷✵✵✶ ș❚ ❜✉❜❜❧❡✱ ✇❤❡♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ ❛♥❛✲
❧②sts ✇❤❡r❡ ❜✐❞❞✐♥❣ ✉♣ ♣r✐❝❡s ❢♦r t❡❝ ❤♥♦❧♦❣② st❛rt✲✉♣s ✇❤❡♥ t❤♦s❡ ❜✉s✐♥❡ss ❞✐❞ ♥♦t
r❡s♣ ❡❝t ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❜❛s✐❝ ❛❝❝♦✉♥ t✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❛✉❞✐t r❡q✉✐r❡♠❡♥ ts✳ ❙♦♠❡ ❛♥❛❧②sts ❛♥❞ ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♦rs ❞❡❢❡♥❞❡❞ t❤❡✐r ✈✐❡✇s ❜ ② q✉♦t✐♥❣ t❤❡♦r✐❡s ♦♥ ❤♦ ✇ t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ ✬♥❡✇✬ ❡✈ ❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥s
t❤❛t ❥✉st✐✜❡❞ t❤❡ ❤✐❣❤ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✬❞♦t✲❝♦♠✬ ❜✉❜❜❧❡✱ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
❞✐❞ ♥♦t ♠❛♥❛❣❡ t♦ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ✐♥ t❡❣r❛t❡ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♣r✐❝❡s✳ ș♥st❡❛❞✱❛s ❛♥❛❧②③❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ❙❤❛r♠❛ ✱ ✷✵✵✾ ✮✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❢♦ ❝✉s❡❞ ♦♥ ❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r
s♦✉r❝❡ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❣❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ s❤♦rt✲t❡r♠ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ❡✈ ❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ st♦ ❝ ❦s ❜✉t ❛
✇r♦♥❣ ❡✈ ❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❧♦♥❣✲t❡r♠ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳
❊✈ ❡♥ ✇❤❡♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ q✉❛❧✐t ② ✐s ❛❜✉♥❞❛♥ t✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ st✐❧❧ ✭❛♥❞ ❞♦✮ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡
t♦ ✐❣♥♦r❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜ ♦✉t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧s ❛♥❞ ❡♥❣❛❣❡ ✐♥ ✬t❡❝ ❤♥✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s✬✳ ✬❚ ❡❝ ❤✲
♥✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s✬✱ ❛s t❤♦r♦✉❣❤❧② ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ▲♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✵ ✮✱ ❝♦♥s✐sts ♦❢ ❛ s❡t ♦❢
♠❡t❤♦ ❞s t❤❛t ❤❡❧♣ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ ❛♥ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♣r✐❝❡
❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❤✐st♦r✐❝❛❧ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳
❚❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✐s t❤❛t ♣r✐❝❡s r❡✢❡❝t ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧②
❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ❛❧❧ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤ ✉s✱ ❧♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ❛t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧s ✐s ♥♦t ✉s❡✲
❢✉❧ ❢♦r ♠❛❦✐♥❣ ❡①❝❡ss ♣r♦✜ts✳ ❚ ❡❝ ❤♥✐❝❛❧ tr❛❞❡rs ❞♦ ♥♦t ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛r❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t
❛♥❞ t❤❡② ❢♦ ❝✉s ♦♥ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r✐♥❣ tr❡♥❞s ❛♥❞ ♣❛tt❡r♥s ✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❯s✐♥❣ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♠❡t❤✲
♦ ❞s t❤❡② tr② t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ ♣r♦✜ts ♦✉t ♦❢ r❡♣ ❡❛t✐♥❣ ♣❛tt❡r♥s✳ ș❢ ❛ ✬tr❡♥❞✬ ♦r ♣❛tt❡r♥ ✐s
❞❡t❡❝t❡❞ ❜ ② ❛ s✉✣❝✐❡♥ t ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ t❡❝ ❤♥✐❝✐❛♥s t❤❡♥✱ t❤r♦✉❣❤ s❤❛r✐♥❣ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
♦r ✐♥❞❡♣ ❡♥❞❡♥ t❧② ✱ t❤❡r❡ ✐s ❛ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ② t❤❛t t❤❡✐r ❝♦♠ ❜✐♥❡❞ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✇✐❧❧ ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② ❝r❡✲
❛t❡ ❛ tr❡♥❞ ✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ✲ r❡❛❧✐③✐♥❣ ✇❤❛t ✐s ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❛ ✬s❡❧❢✲❢✉❧✜❧❧✐♥❣ ♣r♦♣❤❡❝②✬✳ ✭ ❋ ❡r♥❛♥❞❡③
❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✾ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❏♦r❞❛♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✻ ✮ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ❛❝❝♦✉♥ ts ♦❢ s✉❝ ❤ ♣r♦♣❤❡❝✐❡s✳

✸✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✸✳ ❖❜ ❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞②
✸✳✷ ❆s②♠♠❡tr② ❛♥❞ q✉❛❧✐t② ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❋ r♦♠ t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s ❡①❛♠♣❧❡s ✇❡ s❛✇ t❤❛t ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❢❛❝❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❧❛r❣❡ ✈♦❧✉♠❡
♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ș❢ ✇❡ ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝❛♥✱ ♦♥ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡✱ ❡①tr❛❝t t❤❡ r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥t
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇❡ s❤♦✉❧❞ ❛❧s♦ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r t❤❡ ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t② t❤❛t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s
❧❛❝❦ ✐♥ q✉❛❧✐t② ♦r ♣r❡❝✐s✐♦♥✳
❖♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ t❤❡♦r✐❡s st❛♥❞✐♥❣ ❜❡❤✐♥❞ t❤❡ ✐❞❡❛ t❤❛t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧②
✐♥❢❡rr❡❞ ❢r♦♠ ❛ ✈ ❛r✐❡t② ♦❢ s♦✉r❝❡s ✐s t❤❡ ❝❡♥tr❛❧ ❧✐♠✐t t❤❡♦r② ✱ s❡❡ ✭ ❉✉❞❧❡② ✱ ✶✾✾✾ ✮ ❢♦r
❛♥ ❡①❤❛✉st✐✈❡ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝❡♥tr❛❧ ❧✐♠✐t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧s ❛♥❞ ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❚ ♦ s❡❡
❤♦✇ t❤✐s t❤❡♦r② ✇♦r❦s ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇❡ ♣r♦♣♦s❡ t❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✿ ș♠❛❣✐♥❡
❛ ❤✉♥❞r❡❞ ♣❡♦♣❧❡ t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ ❛ tr❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❥❛r ✜❧❧❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ❛♥ ✉♥❦♥♦✇♥ ♥✉♠❜❡r
♦❢ ♣❧❛st✐❝ ❜❛❧❧s✳ ❊❛❝❤ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✐s ❛s❦❡❞ t♦ ❧♦♦❦ ❛t t❤❡ ❥❛r ✭✇✐t❤♦✉t ♦♣❡♥✐♥❣ ✐t✮ ❛♥❞
❣✐✈❡ ❛♥ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❜❛❧❧s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ✐♥s✐❞❡✳
Estimations
N ballsN+e1
N+emCentral limit
N
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✸✳✷✿ ❊st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝♦rr❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❝❡♥tr❛❧ ❧✐♠✐t t❤❡♦r②
❚❤❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡rs ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❜❛❧❧s ✉s✐♥❣ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤❡s✿ ❝♦✉♥t✐♥❣✱
♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ✉s✐♥❣ ✈♦❧✉♠❡s✱ ❣✉❡ss❡s✱t❤✉♠❜ r✉❧❡s ♦r ♦t❤❡r ♠❡t❤♦❞s✳ ❚❤❡r❡✲
❢♦r❡ t❤❡s❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞✳ ❚❤❡ ✐❞❡❛ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝❡♥tr❛❧ ❧✐♠✐t t❤❡♦r②
✐s t❤❛t ✐❢ ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ ❛ s✉✣❝✐❡♥t ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t ❛♥❞ ✐❞❡♥t✐❝❛❧❧② ❞✐str✐❜✉t❡❞
❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s✱ ✐♠♣❧②✐♥❣ t❤❛t ♣❡♦♣❧❡ ❞♦ ♥♦t ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✐❞❡❛s✱ t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢
t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ♥♦r♠❛❧❧② ❞✐str✐❜✉t❡❞ ❛♥❞ ✐t✬s ♠❡❛♥ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ t❤❡ tr✉❡
♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❜❛❧❧s ✐♥ t❤❡ ❥❛r ✭◆✮✳ ș♥ ♦t❤❡r ✇♦r❞s✱ ❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ t❤❡ ❝❡♥tr❛❧ ❧✐♠✐t t❤❡♦r② ✱
✇❡ ❡①♣❡❝t t♦ ❤❛✈❡ ❛ s✐♠✐❧❛r ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ♣❡♦♣❧❡ t❤❛t ✇✐❧❧ ✉♥❞❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡ ◆ ❛s ♣❡♦♣❧❡ t❤❛t
♦✈❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡ ◆✳ ▼♦r❡♦✈❡r✱ ❢♦r t❤✐s t❤❡♦r② t♦ ❤♦❧❞✱ ✐t ✐s ❝r✉❝✐❛❧ t❤❛t ❡❛❝❤ ❡✈ ❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥ ✐s
✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t✳ ș♥ ❆♣♣❡♥❞✐① ❆✳✷ ✇❡ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡ ❛ ♣r♦❣r❛♠♠✐♥❣ ❝♦❞❡ t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ♣r♦✈❡ t❤❡
❛❜♦✈❡ ❢❛❝ts✳
❲ ❡ ❦♥♦✇ t❤❛t ❞✉❡ t♦ ♠✐♠❡t✐❝ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r✱ s❡❡ ✭ ❈✐♣r✐❛♥✐ ❛♥❞ ●✉❛r✐♥♦ ✱ ✷✵✵✾ ✮✱

✸✳✷✳ ❆s②♠♠❡tr② ❛♥❞ q✉❛❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✸✼
✭ ❈❤❛♥❣ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✵ ✮ ❢♦r ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡ r❡✈✐❡✇s✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦♥✬t ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ♠❛❦ ❡ ✐♥❞❡♣ ❡♥✲
❞❡♥ t ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t ❛ss❡t ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s✳ ❋ ♦r t❤✐s r❡❛s♦♥✱ t❤❡ ❜❛s✐❝ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s
❢♦r t❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✐❞✐t ② ♦❢ ❝❡♥ tr❛❧ ❧✐♠✐t t❤❡♦r② ❛r❡ ♥♦t ♠❡❡t ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝
st✉❞✐❡s✱ ❛s r❡♣ ♦rt❡❞ ✐♥ ✭ ❑✐r♠❛♥ ✱ ✶✾✾✷ ✮✱ ✉s✉❛❧❧② ✉s❡ t❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t ♦❢ ❛ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❛✲
t✐✈ ❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧✳ ❚❤❡ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛st ❞♦✉❜t ♦♥ s✉❝ ❤ s✐♠♣❧✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ r❡❛❧
s②st❡♠s✳
❚❤❡ ♠✐♠❡t✐❝ ❛♥❞ ❛s②♠♠❡tr✐❝❛❧ ❜✐❛s✐♥❣ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦r ✐ts ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ✐s
✉❜✐q✉✐t♦✉s ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s②st❡♠s✳ ❚❤✐s ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✐s ❢♦✉♥❞ ✇✐t❤ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ♠❛♥❛❣❡rs ❛s
✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②sts✳ ❈♦♠♣❛♥ ② ♠❛♥❛❣❡rs✱ ❛s r❡♣ ♦rt❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ❑②❧❡ ✱ ✶✾✽✺ ✮ ♦r ✭ ❇r❛♥✲
❞♦✉② ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✵ ✮✱ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ✐♥❝❡♥ t✐✈ ❡s t♦ ❛❜✉s❡ ✐♥s✐❞❡r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦r ❞❡❢♦r♠ ✜♥❛♥✲
❝✐❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❛❝❝♦✉♥ t✐♥❣ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss ❦♥♦ ✇♥ ❛s ✧✇✐♥❞♦ ✇✲❞r❡ss✐♥❣✧✱
❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ♠❛♥❛❣❡rs ❝❛♥ r❡♣ ♦rt ✐♥✢❛t❡❞ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡rs ❝♦♥❝❡r♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣ ❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞
✇ ❡❧❧✲❜ ❡✐♥❣ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡s✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ♣r❛❝t✐❝❡s✱ ❛❧s♦ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✧❝r❡❛t✐✈ ❡✧ ❛❝❝♦✉♥ t✐♥❣✱
❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❧❡❞ t♦ ♠✐s♣r✐❝❡❞ st♦ ❝ ❦s ❛♥❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧❧② ❡♥❛❜❧❡❞ t❤❡ r✐s❡ ❛♥❞ ❢❛❧❧ ♦❢ ♥ ✉♠❡r♦✉s
❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡s ❧✐❦ ❡ ❊◆❘ ❖◆✶✱ ▲❡❤♠❛♥ ❇r♦t❤❡rs ♦r ❲ ♦r❧❞❈♦♠✳ ❆ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ r❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ s✉❝ ❤
♦ ❝❝✉rr❡♥❝❡s✱ ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s t❤❡✐r ❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❝♦♥ t❡①t✱ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ r❡❛❞ ✐♥ ✭ ❆♠❛t ❛♥❞ ●♦ ✇t❤♦r♣ ❡ ✱
✷✵✵✹ ✮ ♦r ✭ ❇❡❛ttr✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ ●r♦s❛♥ ✉ ✱ ✷✵✶✶ ✮✳
❲ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t♦ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r t❤❛t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥✱ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ♠❡❛s✉r❡✱ t❤❡
q✉❛❧✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡② r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r t❤❡② ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❢❛❝t t❤❛t t❤❡r❡
✐s ❛♥ ❛s②♠♠❡tr② ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛♥❞
♠❛♥❛❣❡rs✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ t❤❡ ✭♣ ❡r❝❡✐✈ ❡❞✮ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ q✉❛❧✐t ② ❛♥❞ ❛s②♠♠❡tr②
❝❛♥ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t ✐♥ t❤❡♠s❡❧✈ ❡s s♦✉r❝❡s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳
EstimationsF+e1
F+emPriceCompany
fundamental
value
F
Non-fundamental
estimations G1…kMarket price
formation
Financial information
and analyst interpretationsInvestor interpretations and actions
Fundamental F
Mesures of information
quality
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✸✳✸✿ ❚ r❛♥s❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t♦ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s
❆s ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✸✳✸ ✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❢❛❝❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ♠ ✉❧t✐♣❧❡ s♦✉r❝❡s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t
✶❘❡❛❞ ✭ ❇❛rr❡✈ ❡❧❞ ✱ ✷✵✵✷ ✮ ❢♦r ❞❡t❛✐❧❡❞ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥s ❛❜♦✉t t❤❡ ❝r❡❛t✐✈❡ ❛❝❝♦✉♥ t✐♥❣ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s ✉s❡❞
✐♥ t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ♦❢ ❊◆❘❖◆

✸✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✸✳ ❖❜ ❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞②
❝❛♥ s❤❛♣ ❡ t❤❡✐r ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s✳ șt ✐s ❡❛s② t♦ ✐♠❛❣✐♥❡ ❛ s❝❡♥❛r✐♦ ✇ ❡r❡ ❛ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ❝❛♥ ❛r✐s❡
❞✉❡ t♦ ♣ ♦ ♦r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚ ♦ ❛ ✈ ♦✐❞ s✉❝ ❤ ✇r♦♥❣ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥s✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✉s✉❛❧❧②
❛tt❛❝ ❤ ❛ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ♦❢ r✐s❦ t♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ st♦ ❝ ❦✳ ❚❤✐s ♣ ❡r❝❡✐✈ ❡❞ r✐s❦ ❤❛s ❛
♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t♦r② ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts✿
• ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝ ♦♠♣ ❛♥②
• q✉❛❧✐t② ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
• q✉❛❧✐t② ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡t
❇② ❡st✐♠❛t✐♥❣ r✐s❦ ❢❛❝t♦rs✱ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝❛♥ ❝♦♠♣ ❡♥s❛t❡ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❧❛❝ ❦ ✐♥ t❤❡ q✉❛❧✐t ②
♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ▲✐❦ ❡ ✇✐t❤ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ r✐s❦✲r❡❧❛t❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦
❜ ❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❧❛❝ ❦✐♥❣ ✐♥ q✉❛❧✐t ② ✳
❚❤❡ s✉❜♣r✐♠❡ ❝r✐s✐s ✐s ❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ♦❢ ❛ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠ t❤❛t ❛r✐s❡s ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❧❛❝ ❦
♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜ ♦✉t r✐s❦ ❢❛❝t♦rs✱ s❡❡ ✭ ▲❛♥❞✐❡r ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✶ ✮✱ ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s t❤❡ ❞♦t✲
❝♦♠ ❜✉❜❜❧❡✷✐s ❛♥ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ❢♦r ❜❛❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤✲✢♦ ✇s✳ ș♥
t❤❡ ✜rst ❝❛s❡✱ ♥❡✇ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥♥♦ ✈ ❛t✐♦♥ ♣ ❡r♠✐tt❡❞ t❤❡ ❝r❡❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠♦rt❣❛❣❡✲❜❛❝ ❦ ❡❞
❛ss❡ts t❤❛t ✇ ❡r❡ s♦ ♦♣❛q✉❡ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣❧✐❝❛t❡❞ t❤❛t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t ♠❛❦ ❡ ❣♦ ♦ ❞
❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡✐r r❡s♣ ❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳ ❨ ❡t✱ ❡✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ t❤❡s❡ ❛ss❡ts
✇ ♦✉❧❞ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ♣r✐❝❡ ✐t ✐s ✈ ❡r② ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ❤❛ ✈ ❡
♠✐ss❡❞ ❛♥ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t r✐s❦ ❢❛❝t♦r✿ t❤❡ s②st❡♠✐❝ r✐s❦✳ ❚❤❡ ❝♦❧❧❛♣s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▲❡❤♠❛♥
❇r♦t❤❡rs ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❜❛♥❦ ❛✛❡❝t❡❞ ♥♦t ♦♥❧② t❤❡ ♠♦rt❣❛❣❡✲❜❛❝ ❦ ❡❞ s❡❝✉r✐t✐❡s ♠❛r❦ ❡t
❜✉t t❤❡ ❡♥ t✐r❡ ❆♠❡r✐❝❛♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s②st❡♠✳ ❙♦ ♦♥ ❛❢t❡r✱ ❛ ❝ ❤❛✐♥ ♦❢ ❡✈ ❡♥ ts ✉♥❢♦❧❞❡❞ ❛♥❞
r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs ❛♥❞ r❡❣✉❧❛t♦rs ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❢♦r ♠♦r❡ tr❛♥s♣❛r❡♥❝② ♦♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥st✐t✉t✐♦♥s ❛s
✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s ❢♦r ♠♦r❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝♦❧❧❡❝t✐♦♥ ✐♥ r❡❣❛r❞s t♦ ✬s②st❡♠✐❝ r✐s❦✬✳
❙②st❡♠✐❝ r✐s❦ r❡❢❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ❝♦❧❧❛♣s❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❡♥ t✐r❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s②st❡♠
♦r ♦❢ ❛♥ ❡♥ t✐r❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ șt s❤♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t ❜ ❡ ❝♦♥❢✉s❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ✇ ❡❧❧✲❦♥♦ ✇♥ r✐s❦ ❝❛❧❧❡❞
✬s②st❡♠❛t✐❝ r✐s❦✬ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐s ♥♦t ❞✐✈ ❡rs✐✜❛❜❧❡ ❛♥❞ r❡❢❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ✈✉❧♥❡r❛❜✐❧✐t ② t♦ ❡✈ ❡♥ ts
t❤❛t ❛✛❡❝t ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ♦✉t❝♦♠❡s ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳
❲ ❡ s❛ ✇ ❤♦ ✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜ ♦✉t ❛ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ❛ss❡t ❝♦♠❡s ✐♥ ❤✐❣❤ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡s ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡
✇r♦♥❣❧② ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❡❞✳ ❚❤❡ ♥❡①t ♣❤❛s❡✱ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss ♦❢ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
✐♥ t♦ ♣r✐❝❡s✱ ✐s r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✬ ✐♥t❡r♣r ❡t❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✳
✸✳✸ ș♥✈❡st♦rs
ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡ ✇✐t❤ s❛ ✈✐♥❣s ✭♦r ♠❛♥❛❣✐♥❣ t❤❡ s❛ ✈✐♥❣s ♦❢ ♦t❤❡rs✮ ✇❤♦ ❛r❡ ❧♦ ♦❦✲
✐♥❣ ❢♦r ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t✐❡s t♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st t❤❡✐r ❝❛♣✐t❛❧✳ ❚❤❡② ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛❝❝❡ss t♦ ❛ ✇✐❞❡ r❛♥❣❡ ♦❢
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ s♦✉r❝❡s ❛♥❞ ❜ ② ❝♦♠♣✐❧✐♥❣ t❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡② ♠❛❦ ❡ t❤❡✐r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t
✷❙❡❡ ✭ ❖❢❡❦ ❛♥❞ ❘✐❝ ❤❛r❞s♦♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✶ ✮ ❢♦r ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ r✐s❡ ❛♥❞ ❢❛❧❧ ♦❢ ș♥ t❡r♥❡t st♦ ❝ ❦
♣r✐❝❡s

✸✳✹✳ ❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ✸✾
❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤❡ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss ♦❢ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t♦ ❛♥ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤
r❡✢❡❝ts t❤❡ ❛ttr❛❝t✐✈ ❡♥❡ss ♦❢ ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❛ss❡t✱ ✐s ❞✐✣❝✉❧t ❛♥❞ ♣❛rt✐❛❧❧② s✉❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳
❈❧❛ss✐❝ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ t❤❡♦r✐❡s ♦❢t❡♥ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❤❛r❞ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t ❤♦ ✇
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t ❛♥❞ ✉s❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❯♥ t✐❧ r❡❝❡♥ t❧② ✱ t❤❡s❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡❞
t❤❛t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ❛♥❞ r❡❛❝t ♦♥❧② t♦ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
✭♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ t❤❡② ❞♦♥✬t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ♥♦t ♣ ❡rs✉❛❞❡❞ ❜ ② r✉♠♦rs✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❢♦✉♥❞✐♥❣
st✉❞✐❡s ♦❢ ✭ ❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❚ ✈ ❡rs❦② ✱ ✶✾✼✾ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✶✾✽✶ ✮s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞ t❤❛t
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞✐s♣❧❛ ② ❛ s❡t ♦❢ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s t❤❛t ❛✛❡❝t ❜ ♦t❤ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡②
♣ ❡r❝❡✐✈ ❡ ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s t❤❡✐r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❛❝t✐♦♥s✳ ◆❡①t ✇ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡ t❤❡ ♠♦st ❝♦♠♠♦♥
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s t❤❛t ❛✛❡❝t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳
✸✳✹ ❇❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s
❆ ❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t❤❡♦r② ✱ ❛❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✱ r✐s❦✲
❛ ✈ ❡rs❡✱ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠❡ ✉♣ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛✲
t✐♦♥s✳ șt ✐s ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ t❤❛t s✉❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❡①✐st ❜✉t ✐t ✐s ♥♦t ❧✐❦ ❡❧② t❤❛t ❛❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡s❡ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s✳ ❚ ♦ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ✬♥♦♥✲r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✬ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈ ❡ ♣s②❝ ❤♦❧♦❣✐sts
❤❛ ✈ ❡ ✇ ♦r❦ ❡❞ t♦ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❤♦ ✇ ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡ ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❲ ❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧✐♥❡
t❤❡ ✐❞❡❛ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇✐♥❣ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈ ❡ tr❛✐ts ❛r❡ ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ❛s ❜✐❛s❡s ✐♥ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡
t♦ ❛ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧❧② ❝♦rr❡❝t r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✳ ❘❡❝❡♥ t st✉❞✐❡s✱ s❡❡ ✭ ❉✉♣r❡ ❉✳✱
●✐r❡r❞✲● ♦t✐♥ ș✳ ❛♥❞ ● ✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✻ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❙✳ ❛♥❞ ● ✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✾ ✮✱ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞ t❤❛t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥
✉s❡ ♥♦♥✲❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❜❛s❡❞ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s✱ ❧✐❦ ❡ ❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ♦r s♦ ❝✐❛❧✲r❡s♣ ♦♥s✐❜❧❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s✱ t♦ ❛❞✲
❥✉st t❤❡✐r ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦s✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥♥♦t ❛tt❛❝ ❤ ❛ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r ♦❢ ✬✇r♦♥❣✬ ♦r ✬r✐❣❤ t✬ t♦
s✉❝ ❤ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ q✉❛❧✐t✐❡s✳ ❆❧♦♥❣s✐❞❡ t❤❡ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ❜✐❛s ✇ ❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡✐r
♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ ✐♠♣❛❝ts ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳
❚❤❡ ❝ ♦ ❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❞✐ss♦♥❛♥❝ ❡ ❜✐❛s ✐s r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❛t✐✈ ❡ ❢♦r ❛ ♣ ❡rs♦♥ t❤❛t ✐❣♥♦r❡s ✐♥✲
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐s ❝♦♥ tr❛❞✐❝t♦r② t♦ ❤✐s ❝✉rr❡♥ t ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s✳ ș♠❛❣✐♥❡ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t❤❛t ❤❛s
❜ ♦✉❣❤ t ❛ st♦ ❝ ❦ ❛♥❞ ❢♦r♠❡❞ t❤❡ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢ t❤❛t t❤❡ st♦ ❝ ❦✬s ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✇✐❧❧ r✐s❡ ✭✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✇ ♦✉❧❞
❣✐✈ ❡ ❤✐♠ ❛ ♣r♦✜t✮✳ ❍❛ ✈✐♥❣ ❛ ✬❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈ ❡ ❞✐ss♦♥❛♥❝❡✬ ❜✐❛s t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝❛♥ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s
✐❣♥♦r❡ r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥ t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡s t❤❡ ❝♦♥ tr❛r② t♦ ❤✐s ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s✳ ❙✉❝ ❤ ❛ ❜✐❛s
❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✱ ✇❤❡r❡ ❡✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ ❛❜✉♥❞❛♥ t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❡①✐sts ❛❜ ♦✉t ♣r✐❝❡s ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ♦ ✈ ❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs st✐❧❧ ✐❣♥♦r❡ t❤❡♠ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣
❛t ❤✐❣❤ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❆♥♦t❤❡r ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤✐s ❜✐❛s ✐s s❡❡♥ ✇❤❡♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❡♥❞ t♦ ❤♦❧❞
♦♥ ❢♦r t♦ ♦ ♠ ✉❝ ❤ t✐♠❡ t♦ ❧♦s✐♥❣ st♦ ❝ ❦s ♦r ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡② ❞♦ ♥♦t ❝❛s❤ ✐♥ ✐♥ ♦♥ ✇✐♥♥✐♥❣
st♦ ❝ ❦s✳
❆♥♦t❤❡r ❢❛♠♦✉s ❛♥❞ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❜✐❛s ✐s ❝❛❧❧❡❞ t❤❡ ❤✐♥❞s✐❣❤t ❜✐❛s ✳ ❚❤✐s ❜✐❛s
❛✛❡❝ts ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❛t ❛❧t❡r t❤❡✐r ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s ✐♥ ❢❛❝❡ ♦❢ ♥❡✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤✐s ✐♠♣❧✐❡s
t❤❛t ♥❡✇ ❛♥❞ r❡✈ ❡❛❧✐♥❣ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ ❞r✐✈ ❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t♦ ✐♥st❛♥ t❧② ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ t❤❡✐r
❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s ❛♥❞ ❢♦r❣❡t t❤❡✐r ♦❧❞❡r ♣ ❡rs♣ ❡❝t✐✈ ❡s✳ ❆ tr✐✈✐❛❧ ✇ ❛ ② ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❡①❤✐❜✐t
s✉❝ ❤ ❛ ❜✐❛s ✐s ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡② s❛ ②✿ ✧ ș ❦♥❡✇ ✐t ❛❧❧ ❛❧♦♥❣ t❤❛t ❛ ❝r❛s❤ ✇ ❛s ❞✉❡✧ ✭❡✈ ❡♥
t❤♦✉❣❤ t❤❡② ❞✐❞♥✬t ❡①✐t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜ ❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡ ❝r❛s❤✮✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛

✹✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✸✳ ❖❜ ❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞②
t❡♥❞❡♥❝② t♦ ✈✐❡✇ t❤❡ r❡❛❧✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ r✐s❦② ❡✈ ❡♥ ts ❛s ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ✬❛❧r❡❛❞② ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞✬ t❤❡② t❡♥❞
❜ ❡❝♦♠❡ ♦ ✈ ❡r❝♦♥✜❞❡♥ t ✇✐t❤ t❤❡✐r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t str❛t❡❣② ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡✐r ❛❜✐❧✐t ②
t♦ ♣r❡❞✐❝t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❆s ♠❡♥ t✐♦♥❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ❙❤✐❧❧❡r ✱ ✶✾✽✵ ✮ ✧❤✐♥❞s✐❣❤ t ❜✐❛s ❡♥❝♦✉r❛❣❡s ❛
✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❧❞ ❛s ♠♦r❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❛❜❧❡ t❤❛♥ ✐t r❡❛❧❧② ✐s✧✱ ❊✈ ❡♥ ✐♥ ❢❛❝❡ ♦❢ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t
❧♦ss❡s✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥✱ ❞✉❡ t♦ ❤✐♥❞s✐❣❤ t✱ ✜♥❞ ✇ ❛ ②s t♦ ❞❡❢❡♥❞ t❤❡✐r str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❛♥❞
❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ❜ ❡ r✐❣❤ t ✭♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ t❤❡② ♥❡❡❞ t♦ r❡st
♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✮ ✐t ✐s ♣❧❛✉s✐❜❧❡ t♦ s❛ ② t❤❛t s♦♠❡ ✇✐❧❧ ♣ ❡rs✐st ✐♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❡✈ ❡♥ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡②
s✉✛❡r ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❧♦ss❡s✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ❝♦♥ t❡①t✱ ✐t ✐s ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ t❤❛t ✐♥❝♦rr❡❝t str❛t❡❣✐❡s ♦r
♣r✐❝❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❝❛♥ ♣ ❡rs✐st✱ ❢♦r ❧♦♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s✱ ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳
❈❧♦s❡❧② r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ t❤❡ ❤✐♥❞s✐❣❤ t ❜✐❛s✱ ❛✈❛✐❧❛❜✐❧✐t② ❜✐❛s ✐s ❛❧s♦ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❚❤❡ ✬❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜✐❧✐t ② ❜✐❛s✬ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❡♥❞ t♦ ♦ ✈ ❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡
t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ❛♥ ❡✈ ❡♥ t ✇❤❡♥ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡s ♦❢ r❡❛❧✐③❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡✈ ❡♥ t ❛r❡ ♣r❡s❡♥ t❧②
❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡✳ ❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ✇❤❡♥ s❡❡✐♥❣ ❛ r✐s❡ ✐♥ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r ❛ ❢❡✇ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ❛♥❞ ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♦r ❝❛♥ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❥✉❞❣♠❡♥ t ❛♥❞ ❞r❛ ✇ t❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ t❤❛t ♣r✐❝❡s ✇✐❧❧ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡
t♦ ❣r♦ ✇✳ ș❢ ♣r✐♦r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ ❛ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♣✐❝t✉r❡ ✭♥♦t s✉♣♣ ♦rt✐♥❣ ❣r♦ ✇t❤✮
t❤❛♥ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝❛♥ st✐❧❧ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ❤✐s ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s ✭✐♥ ❢❛ ✈ ♦r ❛ r❛✐s✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡ tr❡♥❞✮ ✐❢ ❤❡ ✐s ❛❧s♦
❛✛❡❝t ❜ ② t❤❡ ✬❤✐♥❞s✐❣❤ t✬ ❜✐❛s ✭✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✇✐❧❧ ❞✐st♦rt ❤✐s r❡❝♦❧❧❡❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♦❧❞❡r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
t❤❛t ♥❡❣❛t❡s t❤❡ ♥❡✇ r❛✐s✐♥❣ tr❡♥❞ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢ ✮✳ ș♥ ❛ ♠♦r❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ ❝♦♥ t❡①t✱ t❤❡ ✬❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜✐❧✲
✐t ②✬ ❜✐❛s ✐s ♦❢t❡♥ tr✐❣❣❡r❡❞ ❜ ② ♥❡✇s ❜✉❧❧❡t✐♥s t❤❛t ❢♦ ❝✉s ♦♥ ❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ ❡✈ ❡♥ t
✭❡①✿ s❤❛r❦ ❛tt❛❝ ❦s✱ ❝❛r ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥ ts✱ ❡t❝✳✮✳ ș❢ ❛ ♥❡✇s ❜✉❧❧❡t✐♥s ✐s r❡♣ ❡❛t❡❞ ❛ ❢❡✇ t✐♠❡s✱
❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛❜❧❡ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇ ❡rs ✇✐❧❧ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ♦ ❝❝✉rr❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡
❡✈ ❡♥ ts ❞✐s♣❧❛ ② ❡❞ ✭♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ❣❡tt✐♥❣ ❛tt❛❝ ❦ ❡❞ ❜ ② ❛ s❤❛r❦✮ ❛s ♠ ✉❝ ❤ ❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❛♥ ✐t
❛❝t✉❛❧❧② ✐s ✐♥ r❡❛❧✐t ② ✳ ❚❤ ✉s t❤❡ ✬❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜✐❧✐t ②✬ ♦❢ ❛ ❢❡✇ r❡♣ ❡❛t❡❞ r❡❛❧✐s❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❛♥ ❡✈ ❡♥ t
✇✐❧❧ ❞✐st♦rt ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡✬s ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❧✐❦ ❡❧✐❤♦ ♦ ❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡✈ ❡♥ t✳ ❚❤❡ ✬❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜✐❧✐t ②✬ ❛♥❞
t❤❡ ✬❤✐♥❞s✐❣❤ t✬ ❜✐❛s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ ✐♥ ✭ ❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✶✾✽✶ ✮✳
ș♥ ♦♣♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s ❜✐❛s✱ s♦♠❡ ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡ t❡♥❞ t♦ ❡①❤✐❜✐t ❛♥ ♦✈❡r✲
❝ ♦♥✜❞❡♥❝ ❡ ❜✐❛s✱ ♦r ❝ ♦♥s❡r✈❛t✐s♠ ❜✐❛s ❛s ✜rst ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ❊❞✇ ❛r❞s ✱ ✶✾✻✽ ✮✳ ❇❡✲
❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤✐s ❜✐❛s✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❡♥❞ t♦ ✉♥❞❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ✇ ❡✐❣❤ t ♦❢ ♥❡✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❛♥❞ ♦ ✈ ❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ♦❧❞❡r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ❤❡ ❢❛♠♦✉s st✉❞②
❛❜ ♦✉t ❝❛r ❞r✐✈ ❡rs✱✭ ❙✈ ❡♥s♦♥ ✱ ✶✾✽✶ ✮✱ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs ❛s❦ ❡❞ ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡ t♦ r❛t❡ t❤❡✐r ❞r✐✈✐♥❣
s❦✐❧❧s r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❞r✐✈ ❡r✳ ❚❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts✱ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧❧② ✐♠♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡✱ s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞
t❤❛t ❛ ❤✐❣❤ ♠❛ ❥♦r✐t ② ♦❢ ❞r✐✈ ❡rs ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ t❤❡♠s❡❧✈ ❡s ❛s ❤❛ ✈✐♥❣ ✬❛❜ ♦✉t✲❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡✬
❞r✐✈✐♥❣ s❦✐❧❧s✳
❚❤❡ r ❡♣r ❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈❡♥❡ss ❜✐❛s ❛✛❡❝ts ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐♦♥ ❜ ② ❛❧❧♦ ✇✐♥❣ ❢♦r ♦ ✈ ❡r✈ ❛❧✲
✉❡❞ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ❛♥ ❡✈ ❡♥ t ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ❡✈ ❡♥ ts t❤❛t ❤❛ ✈ ❡
s✐♠✐❧❛r ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❡✈ ❡♥ t ✇ ❡ ❛r❡ ❧♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ❢♦r✳ ❙✉❝ ❤ ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥
✇✐❧❧ tr✐❝ ❦ ✉s ✐♥ t♦ ♠❛❦✐♥❣ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✐s❛t✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ♦❢ ❛♥ ❡♥ t✐r❡
♣ ♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ♦❢ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ s❛♠♣❧❡✳ ș❢ ✇ ❡ ♣r♦♠♣t ❛ ♣ ❡rs♦♥ t♦
❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ❛ ✬s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧✬ ❝♦✐♥ ❢❛❧❧✐♥❣ ♦♥ ✐ts ❢❛❝❡ ✭✶✮ ♠♦st ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ♣r♦❜✲
❛❜❧② ❛♥s✇ ❡r ✺✵✪✳ ș♥ ❝♦♥ tr❛st✱ ✐❢ ✇ ❡ s❤♦ ✇ ❛ r❡❛❧✐s❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ s❡r✐❡s ♦❢ t♦ss❡s✱ ❧✐❦ ❡
✶✶✵✶✵✶✶✱ ♠♦st ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡ ✇✐❧❧ ✇r♦♥❣❧② ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦✐♥ s❤♦ ✇✐♥❣
✶ ✐s ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ✺✵✪✳ ❚❤❡ s❡q✉❡♥❝❡ ✶✶✵✶✵✶✶✱ ♦❢ r❡❛❧✐s❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❛ ❝♦✐♥ t♦ss✱ ❤❛s t❤❡

✸✳✺✳ Pr✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✹✶
s❛♠❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ❛♣♣ ❡❛r✐♥❣ ❛s ❞♦ ❡s t❤❡ s❡q✉❡♥❝❡ ✶✶✶✶✶✶✶ ✭♦r ❛❧❧ ③❡r♦s✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡s❡
s❛♠♣❧❡s ❝♦♠❡ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ t♦ss ♦❢ ❛ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡❞ ❝♦✐♥✳ ș♥ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱
s✉❝ ❤ ❛ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈ ❡ ❜✐❛s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ r❡s♣ ♦♥s✐❜❧❡ ❢♦r tr❡♥❞ ❝r❡❛t✐♦♥✿ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇❤♦ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ❛
❝❧♦s❡ s❡q✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ r❡t✉r♥s ❝❛♥ ✐♥❢❡r t❤❛t ✐t ✐s ♠♦r❡ ❧✐❦ ❡❧② t❤❛t ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡✱ r❛t❤❡r
t❤❛♥ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈ ❡✱ r❡t✉r♥s ✇✐❧❧ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇✳ ș♥ ❛ ❧❛r❣❡ t✐♠❡✲❢r❛♠❡✱ t❤✐s ❡q✉❛t❡s t♦ t❤❡ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢
t❤❛t ✷✱✸ ❝♦♥s❡❝✉t✐✈ ❡ ② ❡❛rs ✇✐t❤ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ r❡t✉r♥s ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t t❤❡ ♥❡①t ② ❡❛r✬s r❡t✉r♥s
❛r❡ ♠♦r❡ ❧✐❦ ❡❧② t♦ ❜ ❡ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ t❤❛♥ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈ ❡ ✭❢❛❝t t❤❛t ✐s st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧❧② ✐♥❝♦rr❡❝t✮✳ ș♥
✭ ●r✐✣♥ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✶✾✾✸ ✮✱ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ t ✇ ♦ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ❢♦r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✿ ❢♦r❝❡
✭✐♥ t❡♥s✐t ② ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✇ ❛t❝ ❤❡❞ ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡✮ ❛♥❞ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ✇ ❡✐❣❤ t ✭♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢
s✉❝ ❤ ❡✈ ❡♥ t ♦ ❝❝✉rr✐♥❣✮✳ ❚❤❡② ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❛t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❤✐❣❤ ❢♦r❝❡ ✐s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞
❛s ♣ ❡rt✐♥❡♥ t ❡✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ ✐ts st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ✇ ❡✐❣❤ t ✐s ✐♥s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥ t✳
❚❤❡ ✜✈ ❡ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡s ♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ ❝❛♥✱ ✐♥ ✐s♦❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦r ❝♦♠ ❜✐♥❡❞✱ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♠ ✉❧t✐♣❧❡
❡✛❡❝ts ♦♥ t❤❡ ✇ ❛ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♣ ❡r❝❡✐✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t t ②♣ ❡s✳
❇❡s✐❞❡s ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❞✐✈ ❡r❣❡ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ✬r❛✲
t✐♦♥❛❧❧② ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✬ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡
❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤✳
❆❢t❡r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❡❞ t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡② s❡♥❞ t❤❡✐r ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ♦r❞❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡ ❣❛t❤❡r❡❞ ❛♥❞ ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝❡❞ ✐♥ ❛
♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ t❤❛t ❝r❡❛t❡s t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❲❤✐❧❡ t❤✐s ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✐s
❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ❞❡❞✉❝t✐✈ ❡ ✭✉♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❛♥❞ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❛❜❧❡✮ s♦♠❡ ♦❢ ✐ts ✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥s ❝❛♥ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♣r♦✲
♣r✐❡t✐❡s t❤❛t ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ t❤❡ q✉❛❧✐t ② ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ✇ ❛ ②s t❤r♦✉❣❤ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
❜ ❡❝♦♠❡ ♠♦r❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✇ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s
❢♦r t❤❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳
✸✳✺ Pr✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠
❆❢t❡r r❡❝❡✐✈✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t✐♥❣ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs s❡♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥
r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡✐r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ♦r❞❡rs ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡❞ ✐♥ t ✇ ♦ ♠❛✐♥
❝❛t❡❣♦r✐❡s✿
• ▼❛r❦❡t ♦r ❞❡rs ✿ ♦r❞❡rs t❤❛t s♣ ❡❝✐❢② t❤❡ ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥ ✭❜✉②✴s❡❧❧✮ ❛♥❞
t❤❡ ❛♠♦✉♥ t ♦❢ ♠♦♥❡②✴st♦ ❝ ❦s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ✐♥ ✈ ♦❧✈ ❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ tr❛❞❡✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ♦r❞❡rs ✇✐❧❧
❜ ❡ ❡①❡❝✉t❡❞✱ ✐❢ ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡✱ ❛t t❤❡ ❜ ❡st ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✳ ▼❛r❦ ❡t ♦r❞❡rs
✉s✉❛❧❧② ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r ♣r✐♦r✐t ② t❤❛♥ ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡rs✳
• ▲✐♠✐t ♦r ❞❡rs ✿ ♦r❞❡rs t❤❛t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ❛s ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦r❞❡r ✇✐t❤
❡①tr❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠✴♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠ ♣r✐❝❡ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐s ✇✐❧❧✲
✐♥❣ t♦ ❛❝❝❡♣t ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ❜✉②✴s❡❧❧ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❚❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ s❡✈ ❡r❛❧ ✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❧✐♠✐t
♦r❞❡rs ✭❡①✿ ❛❧❧✲♦r✲❝❛♥❝❡❧✱ st♦♣✲❧♦ss❡s✱ t✐♠❡✲❧✐♠✐ts✮ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❤❡❧♣ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❛❦ ❡
✈ ❡r② s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳
❚❤❡s❡ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡ r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡❞ ❛♥❞ ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝❡❞ ✐♥ t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✬s ❡①❡❝✉t✐♦♥ s②st❡♠✳
❚❤✐s s②st❡♠ ❝♦♥s✐sts ♦❢ ❛ s❡t ♦❢ ♣r♦ ❝❡❞✉r❡s t❤❛t ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ♠❛t❝ ❤

✹✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✸✳ ❖❜ ❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞②
♦r❞❡rs ♦❢ ❜✉② ❡rs ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧❡rs✳ ❉❡♣ ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ t❤❡ ❡①❡❝✉t✐♦♥ s②st❡♠ ❤❛s
❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ s❡ss✐♦♥s✿ ❝❛❧❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s❡ss✐♦♥s ♦r ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉♦✉s s❡ss✐♦♥s✳
❲✐t❤ ❝ ❛❧ ❧ ♠❛r❦❡t s❡ss✐♦♥s tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♦ ❝❝✉rs ❛t ✇ ❡❧❧✲s♣ ❡❝✐✜❡❞ t✐♠❡s✳ ❆❧❧ ♦r❞❡rs
❛r❡ ❣❛t❤❡r❡❞ ✐♥ ❛♥ ♦r❞❡r ❜ ♦ ♦❦ ❛♥❞ ❛t s♣ ❡❝✐✜❡❞ ♠♦♠❡♥ ts t✐♠❡s ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s
❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r❡❞ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ r❡q✉✐r❡♠❡♥ ts✱ ✉s✉❛❧❧② ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ✭s❡❡ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r
❢♦r ❛ ❞❡t❛✐❧❡❞ ♣r❡s❡♥ t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ s✉❝ ❤ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r② ♠❡t❤♦ ❞✮✳ ș♥ t❤✐s t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱
t❤❡ tr❛❞❡ ❡①❡❝✉t✐♦♥ s②st❡♠ ✐s ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✬ s✐♥❣❧❡ ♣r✐❝ ❡ ❛✉❝t✐♦♥s ✬✳ ❆❧❧ ♠❛t❝ ❤✐♥❣ tr❛❞❡s ❛r❡
❡①❡❝✉t❡❞ ❛t t❤❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r❡❞ ✉♥✐q✉❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✭❛s ❧♦♥❣ ❛s t❤✐s ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s
❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❜✉② ❛♥❞ t❤❡ s❡❧❧ ♣r✐❝❡s✮✳
❉✉r✐♥❣ ❝ ♦♥t✐♥✉♦✉s s❡ss✐♦♥s tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♦ ❝❝✉rs ❛t ❛♥ ② t✐♠❡ ❞✉r✐♥❣ t❤❡ s❡ss✐♦♥✳ ❆
♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦r❞❡r ✐s ❡①❡❝✉t❡❞ ✐♠♠❡❞✐❛t❡❧② ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❜ ❡st ❝♦✉♥ t❡r♣❛rt ② ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡✳ ❆ ❧✐♠✐t
♦r❞❡r ✐s ❡①❡❝✉t❡❞ ✇❤❡♥ ❛♥♦t❤❡r ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡r ✐s s✉✐t❛❜❧❡ ❛s ❝♦✉♥ t❡r♣❛rt ② ✭♦r ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♦r❞❡r ❛rr✐✈ ❡s✮✳ ❖r❞❡rs t❤❛t ❛r❡ ♥♦t r❡s♦❧✈ ❡❞ ❛r❡ ♣❧❛❝❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜ ♦ ♦❦ ❢♦r ❧❛t❡r
♣r♦ ❝❡ss✐♥❣✳ ❚❤✐s t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ s❡ss✐♦♥ ❛❧❧♦ ✇s tr❛❞❡rs t♦ ❡①❡❝✉t❡ t❤❡✐r ♦r❞❡rs ❢❛st❡r ✭❛♥❞
t❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ q✉✐❝ ❦❧② ♣r♦✜t ♦♥ t❤❡✐r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❡①❡❝✉t✐♦♥ ♣r♦ ❝❡❞✉r❡ ❢♦r tr❛❞❡s
✐♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡ ✐s ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✬❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉♦✉s t ✇ ♦✲s✐❞❡❞ ❛✉❝t✐♦♥s✬✳
❍❛ ✈✐♥❣ r❡✈✐❡✇ ❡❞ t❤❡ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ♦r❞❡rs ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s t❤❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ s❡ss✐♦♥s✱ ✇ ❡
❞✐s❝✉ss t❤❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ❡①❡❝✉t✐♦♥ s②st❡♠s ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡✿
✶✳ ◗✉♦t❡✲❞r✐✈❡♥ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✿ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦♥✬t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣
❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❡❛❝ ❤ ♦t❤❡r✳ ❆ s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧✐③❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣❛rt♥❡r✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠❛❦ ❡r✧✱ ♣❧❛❝❡s
q✉♦t❡s ❛t ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❤❡ ✐s ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ ❜✉② ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❚❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠❛❦ ❡r ♦✛❡rs ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ②
❛♥❞ ✐s t❤❡ ❝♦✉♥ t❡r♣❛rt ② ❢♦r ❡✈ ❡r② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✳
✷✳ ❖r ❞❡r✲❞r✐✈❡♥ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✿ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ tr❛❞❡ ❞✐r❡❝t❧② ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡♠s❡❧✈ ❡s✳
❚❤❡ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡ st♦r❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ ♣❧❛❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ s♦❧✈ ❡❞ ❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t r✉❧❡s✳
❚❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ♥ ✉♠❡r♦✉s ✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♦r❞❡r✲❞r✐✈ ❡♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts t❤❛t ❞✐❝t❛t❡ t❤❡ ✇ ❛ ② ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝ ❤
tr❛❞❡s ❛r❡ ♠❛t❝ ❤❡❞✿
❛✮ ❖r ❛❧ ❛✉❝t✐♦♥s✿ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♣✉❜❧✐❝❧② ❡①♣r❡ss t❤❡✐r ♦✛❡rs ❢♦r ❜✉②✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧✐♥❣
❛❝t✐♦♥s✳ ș♥ ♦♣♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥✱ s❡❛❧❡❞ ❛✉❝t✐♦♥s ❣✐✈ ❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ② t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ ♣r✐✈ ❛t❡
♦✛❡rs ✭✉s✉❛❧❧② ❢♦✉♥❞ ✐♥ r❡❛❧✲❡st❛t❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✮✳
❜✮ ❘ ✉❧❡✲❜ ❛s❡ ❞ s②st❡♠ ❢♦r ♠❛t❝ ❤✐♥❣ ♦r❞❡rs✿ ❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ r✉❧❡s t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡s
❢♦r tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❛r❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r✳ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥ t r✉❧❡s ❛r❡ ✉s❡❞ ❢♦r ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳
❋ r♦♠ t❤❡s❡ ✇ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡ ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥s ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✇ ❡ ❞✐❞♥✬t ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s❧② ♠❡♥ t✐♦♥
✭❧✐❦ ❡ s✐♥❣❧❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦r ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉♦✉s t ✇ ♦✲s✐❞❡ ❛✉❝t✐♦♥s✮✿ ❈r ♦ss✐♥❣ ♥❡t✇♦r❦s✳ ș♥ ❝r♦ss✐♥❣
♥❡t ✇ ♦r❦s tr❛❞❡s ❛r❡ ❡①❡❝✉t❡❞ ❛t ♣r✐❝❡s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ♥♦t ♣r♦ ❞✉❝❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ♦r❞❡rs ❢r♦♠
t❤✐s ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❚❤❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ s❡t ❡❧s❡✇❤❡r❡✱ ✉s✉❛❧❧② ❛♥♦t❤❡r ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❚❤❡s❡
♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛r❡ ✈ ❡r② s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧✐③❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ ❛s ✬❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈ ❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ s②st❡♠s✬✳
❆ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ r❡✈✐❡✇ ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♠✐❝r♦str✉❝t✉r❡ ❛s♣ ❡❝ts ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❢♦✉♥❞
✐♥ ✭ ❍❛rr✐s ✱ ✷✵✵✷ ✮✳ șt ✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t t♦ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ t❤❛t ❡❛❝ ❤ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ s❡r✈ ❡s s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s✳ ❨ ❡t✱ t❤❡s❡ s②st❡♠s ❛r❡ ❛❧❧ ❝♦♥❝❡✐✈ ❡❞ t♦ ✧❝♦r✲
r❡❝t❧②✧ ✭✉♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞✮ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t t❤❡ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s ♦❢ t❤❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳

✸✳✻✳ Pr✐❝❡ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥s ✹✸
✸✳✻ Pr✐❝❡ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥s
❲ ❡ s❛✇ t❤❡ ❡❧❡♠❡♥ts t❤❛t ❛ss✉r❡ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ◆♦✇
✇❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❛♥❞ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ s♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣✉③③❧❡s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❢♦✉♥❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s ♦❢ r❡❛❧
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ❲ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ r❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐♥❣ t❤❡s❡ ✧♣✉③③❧❡s✧ ✉s✐♥❣ ♦✉r ♠♦❞❡❧ ♦❢ ❛
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✳
ș❢ ✇❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ❛♥② ♣r✐❝❡✴r❡t✉r♥ s❡r✐❡s ❢r♦♠ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✱ ✐t ✇♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ✐♥✲
t❡r❡st✐♥❣ t♦ ❝♦♠♣❛r❡ s✉❝❤ ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡
s✉❝❤ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧s r❛r❡❧② ❡①✐sts ✭❧✐❦❡ ❛✉❞✐t❡❞ ♣❡r✐♦❞✐❝ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡♣♦rts✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❤❛✈❡
t♦♦ ❢❡✇ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛t✐♦♥s✮ ✇❡ ❛r❡ ❧❡❢t ✇✐t❤ ❧♦♦❦✐♥❣ ❛t t❤❡ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ♦❢ t❤❡s❡
s❡r✐❡s✳ ❆❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ t❤❡ ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡ts t❤❡♦r② ✱ ❛ss❡ts r❡t✉r♥s
s❤♦✉❧❞ ❤❛✈❡ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥s✳ ș♥st❡❛❞✱ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t r❡t✉r♥ s❡r✐❡s ❡①❤✐❜✐t ❞✐str✐✲
❜✉t✐♦♥s ✇✐t❤ ✬❤❡❛✈② t❛✐❧s✬✱ ❛❧s♦ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❧❡♣t♦❦✉rt✐❝ ✳ ❚❤✐s ❢❡❛t✉r❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣✿
t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ t♦♦ ❢❡✇ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ r❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞ t♦♦ ♠❛♥② ❡①tr❡♠❡ r❡t✉r♥s ❛s ♦♣♣♦s❡❞ t♦ ✇❤❛t
t❤❡ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧ ♣r♦♣♦s❡s✳ ❚ ♦ ✐❧❧✉str❛t❡ t❤✐s ✬✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♦❞❞✐t②✬ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ❧♦♦❦ ❛t
t❤❡ r❡t✉r♥ s❡r✐❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❋ r❡♥❝❤ ❈❆❈✹✵ ✐♥❞❡① ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ✶✾✾✵✲✷✵✶✷✳
−0.10 −0.05 0.00 0.05 0.100 10 20 30Density
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✸✳✹✿ ✭❜❧❛❝❦✮ ❉✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❈❆❈✹✵ r❡t✉r♥s✱ ✭❣r❡❡♥✮ ◆♦r♠❛❧ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥
❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❈❆❈✹✵ ❤❛s ♠♦r❡ ❡①tr❡♠❡ r❡t✉r♥s ✭t❤❡ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ r❡t✉r♥s ✰✴✲
t❤r❡❡ t✐♠❡s ♦r ♠♦r❡ t❤❡ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥✮ t❤❛♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞✳ ❙✐♠✐❧❛r❧② ✱ t❤❡ r❡t✉r♥
❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❤❛s ❧❡ss t❤❛♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ♠❡❞✐✉♠ r❡t✉r♥s ✭❛✈❡r❛❣❡ r❡t✉r♥ ✰✴✲ t✇♦ t✐♠❡s
t❤❡ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥✮ ❛♥❞ ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ r❡t✉r♥s✳ ❖♥❡ ♦t❤❡r r❡t✉r♥
❛♥♦♠❛❧② ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✬❞❛②✲♦❢✲t❤❡✲✇❡❡❦✬✱ ✭ ▲♦✉✈❡t ❛♥❞ ❖ ✱✶✾✾✵ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ▲♦✉✈❡t ❛♥❞ ❉✉❜♦✐s ✱
✶✾✾✻ ✮✱ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t r❡t✉r♥s ❛r❡ ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥t❧② ❤✐❣❤❡r ✐♥ s♦♠❡ ❞❛②s ♦❢ t❤❡ ✇❡❡❦ t❤❛♥ ✐♥
♦t❤❡rs✳ ❉✐s❝♦✈❡r② ♦❢ t❤✐s ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ❧❡❞ t❤❡ ✇❛② t♦ ✐ts ❞✐s❛♣♣❡❛r❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ✐t ✐s ♥♦✇
r❛r❡❧② ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞✳
❆♥♦t❤❡r ✐♥t❡r❡st✐♥❣ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣✉③③❧❡ ❤❛s t❤❡ ♥❛♠❡ ♦❢ ✬ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ✬✳ ❆s
✜rst ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ✐♥ ✭ ▼❛♥❞❡❧❜r♦t ✱✶✾✻✸ ✮✱ t❤❡ ♣✉③③❧❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t ❧❛r ❣❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s t❡♥❞ t♦
❜ ❡ ❢♦❧ ❧♦✇❡ ❞ ❜② ❧❛r ❣❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s✱♦❢ ❡✐t❤❡r s✐❣♥✱ ❛♥❞ s♠❛❧ ❧ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s t❡♥❞ t♦ ❜ ❡ ❢♦❧ ❧♦✇❡ ❞
❜② s♠❛❧ ❧ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ✳❚❤✐s ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥♦♥ ✐s ♣✉t ✐♥t♦ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ❜② t❤❡ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❛ s❧♦✇✲
❞❡❝❛②✐♥❣ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ ♦r sq✉❛r❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s ♦❢ ❛ss❡t

✹✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✸✳ ❖❜ ❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞②
♣r✐❝❡s✳
0 50 100 150 2000.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Lag
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✸✳✺✿ ❆✉t♦ ❝♦rr❡❧♦❣r❛♠ ♦❢ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ ❈❆ ❈✹✵ r❡t✉r♥s
❆s ❞♦ ❝✉♠❡♥ t❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ▲♦✉✈ ❡t ❛♥❞ ❖ ✱ ✶✾✾✸ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ▲♦✉✈ ❡t ❛♥❞ ❖ ✱ ✶✾✾✼ ✮✱ ✐❢ ✇ ❡ ❧♦ ♦❦ ❛t
t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❞✐❝❛t♦r✱ ❈❆ ❈✹✵✱ ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❛t ✐ts s✐♠♣❧❡ r❡t✉r♥s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❛✉t♦✲
❝♦rr❡❧❛t❡❞✱ t❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ❝♦♥✜r♠✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✇ ❡❛❦✲❢♦r♠ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② t❤❡♦r② ✳ ▲♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ❛t ❋✐❣✉r❡
✸✳✺ ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❛t ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r❡t✉r♥s ❛r❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ ❡❛❝ ❤ ♦t❤❡r ✇✐t❤ ❛ str❡♥❣t❤
t❤❛t ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡s s❧♦ ✇❧② ❛♥❞ ❧❛sts ❢♦r ❛❧♠♦st ✷✵✵ ❞❛ ②s✳ ❚❤✐s ♣r♦♣r✐❡t ② ✐s ❛❧s♦ ❝❛❧❧❡❞
✬✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣✬✱ ❛ t❡♥❞❡♥❝② t❤❛t r❡t✉r♥s ❝❛♥ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥ t ❧❡✈ ❡❧s ♦❢ ❧♦ ✇ ♦r
❤✐❣❤ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❧❡✈ ❡❧s✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ❤✐❣❤✴❧♦ ✇ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ✐♠♣❧✐❡s✱ ✇✐t❤ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ s✐❣♥✐✜✲
❝❛♥❝❡✱ ❛ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❤✐❣❤✴❧♦ ✇ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ✇ ❡ s❛ ② t❤❛t t❤❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛t
t✐♠❡ t✰✶ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡✱ ✐♥ ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❞❡❣r❡❡✱ ❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞❛t❛ ❛t t✐♠❡ t✳
❚❤ ✉s t❤✐s ♣r♦♣r✐❡t ② ✐s ❛❧s♦ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❛ ❧♦♥❣✲♠❡♠♦r② ♦❢ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ✱ s❡❡ ✭ ❉✐♥❣ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✶✾✾✸ ✮
❢♦r ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳ ❆s s❤♦ ✇♥ ✐♥ ✭ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✷❛ ✮✱ st ②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts ❧✐❦ ❡
t❤❡ ♦♥❡s ♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ❜ ❡❧♦ ✇✱ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ ❛❧r❡❛❞② r❡♣r♦ ❞✉❝❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧
♠♦ ❞❡❧s ♦r ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠✐❝r♦str✉❝t✉r❡ ❝♦♥str❛✐♥s ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❛r❡ ✉♥❢♦rt✉♥❛t❡❧② ✉♥r❡❛❧✐st✐❝ ✐♥
t❡r♠s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✳ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s ❢♦r ♠❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ❤❛ ✈ ❡
❜ ❡❡♥ ✉s❡❞✱ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♦♥❡s ♠❡♥ t✐♦♥❡❞ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ t♦ ♦t❤❡rs t❤❛t ✉s❡ ❝♦♠♣❧✐❝❛t❡❞ st❛t✐st✐✲
❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ❧✐❦ ❡ ✭ ❍❡r✈ ❡ ✱ ✶✾✾✷ ✮✳ ș♥ ♦✉r st✉❞② ✇ ❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐❣❛t❡ t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧
❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s t❤❛t ❝❛✉s❡ s✉❝ ❤ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣✉③③❧❡s✳
Pr✐❝ ❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❛r❡ ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦st ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ✬♣✉③③❧❡s✬ ♦❢ ♠♦ ❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r✲
❦ ❡ts✳ ❊✈ ❡♥ t❤❡ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ s✉❝ ❤ ❛♥ ❡✈ ❡♥ t ✐s st✐❧❧ ❞❡❜❛t❡❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡r❡ ✐s ♥♦ ✇✐❞❡❧②
❛❝❝❡♣t❡❞ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥✳ ș♥ ✭ ❙t✐❣❧✐t③ ✱ ✶✾✾✵ ✮ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦r ♦✛❡rs t❤✐s ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣✉③✲
③❧❡✿ ✧ t❤❡ ❜ ❛s✐❝ ✐♥t✉✐t✐♦♥ ✐s str ❛✐❣❤t❢♦r✇❛r ❞✿ ✐❢ t❤❡ r ❡ ❛s♦♥ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♣r✐❝ ❡ ✐s ❤✐❣❤ t♦ ❞❛②
✐s ♦♥❧② ❜ ❡ ❝ ❛✉s❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ s❡❧ ❧✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝ ❡ ✇✐❧ ❧ ❜ ❡ ❤✐❣❤ t♦♠♦rr ♦✇✲✇❤❡♥
✧❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧✧ ❢❛❝t♦rs ❞♦ ♥♦t s❡ ❡♠ t♦ ❥✉st✐❢② s✉❝❤ ❛ ♣r✐❝ ❡✲t❤❡♥ ❛ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ❡①✐sts✳ ✧ ș❢
✇ ❡ ❞✐sr❡❣❛r❞ ✐ts ❛❝t✉❛❧ ❝❛✉s❡s✱ t❤❡ ❢❛❝t r❡♠❛✐♥s t❤❛t ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ r❡❝♦❣♥✐③❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ✇❤❡♥
♣r✐❝❡s r❛✐s❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡♥ ❞r♦♣ ❞r❛♠❛t✐❝❛❧❧② ✳

✸✳✻✳ Pr✐❝❡ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥s ✹✺
100150200
December 1988
July 1990
February 1992
September 1993
April 1995
November 1996
June 1998
January 2000
August 2001
March 2003
October 2004
May 2006
December 2007
July 2009
February 2011
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✸✳✻✿ ❯❙ r❡s✐❞❡♥t✐❛❧ r❡❛❧✲❡st❛t❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥❞❡① ✭❙♦✉r❝❡✿ ❙✫✜ ❈❛s❡✲❙❤✐❧❧❡r ❍♦♠❡
✜r✐❝❡ ș♥❞✐❝❡s✮
❖♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦st r❡❝❡♥t ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ✇❛s s❡❡♥ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❯❙ r❡❛❧✲❡st❛t❡
♠❛r❦❡t✱ ❛s ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❜② ✭ ▲❡✈✐t✐♥ ❛♥❞ ❲ ❛❝❤t❡r ✱ ✷✵✶✷ ✮✱ ✇❤❡r❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❦❡♣t r✐s✐♥❣ ❢♦r
t❤❡ ❧❛st t❡♥ ②❡❛rs✱ ❡s❝❛❧❛t✐♥❣ ✐♥ ✷✵✵✼ ✇✐t❤ ❛♥ ❛❜r✉♣t ❣r♦✇t❤ ❛♥❞ ❝r❛s❤ ✭s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡
✸✳✻ ✮✳
❇❡s✐❞❡s t❤❡s❡ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ✬✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣✉③③❧❡s✬ ✇❡ ❞r❛✇ t❤❡ ❛tt❡♥t✐♦♥ t♦✇❛r❞s t✇♦ ♠❛r✲
❦❡t q✉❛❧✐t② ♠❡❛s✉r❡s✿ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ♦❢ r ❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞ s✐❣♥❛❧ t♦ ♥♦✐s❡ r ❛t✐♦ ✳ ❚❤❡ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t②
♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s ✐s t♦❞❛② ❛t t❤❡ ❦❡r♥❡❧ ♦❢ ❛❧❧ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧❧② ❛❝❝❡♣t❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t r✐s❦ ♠❡❛✲
s✉r❡♠❡♥ts✳ ❚❤❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❡ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t t❤❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r ❛r❡ ✐ts r✐s❦ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s✳
ș♥✈❡st♦rs ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ r✐s❦ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡② r❡❝❡✐✈❡✳ ș❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❞♦ ♥♦t ❛❣r❡❡
♦♥ r✐s❦ ❧❡✈❡❧s✱ ♣r✐❝❡s ✢✉❝t✉❛t❡ ✉♥t✐❧ ❛ ❝♦♥s❡♥s✉s ✐s ❢♦✉♥❞✳ ❙♦✱ t❤❡ ♠♦r❡ ♣r❡❝✐s❡ ❛♥❞
❝❧❡❛r t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡ ❡❛s✐❡r ❝❛♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t ❛♥❞ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ r✐s❦✳ ❲✐t❤ t❤❡
❛❞✈❡♥t ♦❢ ❡❧❡❝tr♦♥✐❝ ♠❛r❦❡ts✱ ❤✐❣❤✲s♣❡❡❞ ✐♥t❡r♥❡t ❛♥❞ ❞✐❣✐t❛❧ ♠❡❞✐❛ ✐t ✐s ❝❧❡❛r t❤❛t
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❛✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ✐♥ ❛❜✉♥❞❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ♦♥ ❞❡♠❛♥❞✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ✐♠❛❣✐♥❡
t❤❛t ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡s ✐♥ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ✱ ❞✉❡ t♦ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛s②♠♠❡tr② ♦r ❧❛❝❦ ♦❢ q✉❛❧✐t② ✱ s❤♦✉❧❞
❤❛✈❡ ❞✐s❛♣♣❡❛r❡❞✳ ❚❤❡ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ s❤♦✇s t❤❡ ❝♦♥tr❛r② ✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ♠✐❞❞❧❡ ❣r❛♣❤
✇❡ ❝❛♥ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ❧❡✈❡❧ ❤❛s ❜❡❡♥ st❡❛❞✐❧② ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✐♥ ❧❛st ✶✺
②❡❛rs✳
❚❤❡ s✐❣♥❛❧ t♦ ♥♦✐s❡ r❛t✐♦ ✐s ❝♦♠♣✉t❡❞✱ s❡❡ ❆♥♥❡①❡ ❆✳✸ ❢♦r ❝♦❞❡✱ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠✉❧❛
S=µR
σR✳ ❚❤✐s ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ✐s ✉s✉❛❧❧② ✉s❡❞ ✐♥ ❡♥❣✐♥❡❡r✐♥❣ t♦ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ t❤❡ r❛t✐♦ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥
❛ ❞❡s✐r❡ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ ❛ s✐❣♥❛❧ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ s✉rr♦✉♥❞✐♥❣ ♥♦✐s❡✳ ș♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✇❡ ❦♥♦✇ t❤❛t r❡t✉r♥s
❛r❡ ❧✐♥❦❡❞ t♦ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ✈✐❛ r✐s❦✳ ❚❤❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r r✐s❦s ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ❤❛s✱ t❤❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r s❤♦✉❧❞ ❜❡

✹✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✸✳ ❖❜ ❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞②
✐ts r❡t✉r♥s ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s ✐ts ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ✳ ❲ ❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ❙✱ s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✸✳✼ ✱ ❢♦r t❤❡ r❡t✉r♥s
♦❢ t❤❡ ❈❆ ❈✹✵ ✐♥❞❡① ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❛t ✐t ✐s ❞❡❝r❡❛s✐♥❣✳ ș♥ ✇✐♥❞♦ ✇s ♦❢ ✷✺✵ ❞❛ ②s✱ ✇ ❡
❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❛♥❞ ♠❡❛♥ ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❈❆ ❈✹✵ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❞❡①✳
0.01150.01200.01250.01300.01350.01400.0145Volatility of CAC40 returns
−0.02−0.010.000.010.020.030.04Signal to Noise of CAC403/5/1990
6/26/1992
10/10/1994
1/29/1997 5/19/1999 8/21/2001
11/20/2003
2/13/2006 5/19/2008 8/13/2010❋✐❣✉r❡ ✸✳✼✿ ș♥ ✷✺✵ ❞❛②s t✐♠❡✲♣❡r✐♦❞s✿ ✭❛❜♦✈❡✮ ❱ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❈❆❈✹✵✱
✭❜❡❧♦✇✮ ❙✐❣♥❛❧ t♦ ◆♦✐s❡ ❘❛t✐♦ ♦❢ ❈❆❈✹✵ r❡t✉r♥s
❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ s✐❣♥❛❧✲t♦✲♥♦✐s❡ r❛t✐♦ ✐s ❞❡❝r❡❛s✐♥❣✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✲
✐t② ✭❛ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ♦❢ r✐s❦✮ ✐s ❣r♦✇✐♥❣ ♠✉❝❤ ❢❛st❡r t❤❛♥ r❡t✉r♥s t❤✉s r❡♥❞❡r✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡s ❧❡ss
❛♥❞ ❧❡ss ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐✈❡✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♦❢ ✭ ❙✐❧✈❡r ✱ ✷✵✶✷ ✮ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ✐♥ ❞❡t❛✐❧✱ ❛♥❞ ✇✐t❤ ❛
❣r❡❛t ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡s✱ ❤♦✇ ❝❛♥ s✐❣♥❛❧ t♦ ♥♦✐s❡ r❛t✐♦s ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ ❢❛✐❧✉r❡ ♦❢ ♠♦st
✐♥✈❡st✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣✐❡s✳ ❋ r♦♠ ❛♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✈✐❡✇✱ ✇❡ ❛r❡ ❧❡❢t ✇♦♥❞❡r✐♥❣ ✐❢ t❤❡ ♥❡✇
t❡❝❤♥♦❧♦❣✐❡s✱ ❧✐❦❡ ❤✐❣❤ ❢r❡q✉❡♥❝② tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✭s❡❡ st✉❞② ♦❢ ▲✐t③❡♥❜❡r❣❡r ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✷ ✮✮✱
❤❛✈❡ ♠♦r❡ ❧✐❦❡❧② ❤✐♥❞❡r❡❞ t❤❡ q✉❛❧✐t② ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ✐♥✈❡st♦rs r❡❝❡✐✈❡✳ ❆♥♦t❤❡r
❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥ ❝♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ t❤❛t ✐♥st❡❛❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝❤❛♥❣✐♥❣ q✉❛❧✐t② ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ✐t ✐s t❤❡
❝❤❛♥❣✐♥❣ str✉❝t✉r❡ ♦❢ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❡s ✭♠♦r❡ ✐♥t❡r❝♦♥♥❡❝t❡❞✱ ♠♦r❡ ❢r❛❣✐❧❡✱ ✇✐t❤ ✉♥♣r❡✲
❞✐❝t❛❜❧❡ ♣♦❧✐t✐❝❛❧ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡s✮ t❤❛t ❤❛✈❡ ♣r♦✈♦❦❡❞ ❛ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥
♦❢ r✐s❦ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥t❧② ✐♥ t❤❡ ❣r♦✇t❤ ♦❢ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳
❆❧❧ t❤❡s❡ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✬♣✉③③❧❡s✬ ❛r❡ ♣r♦♦❢ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♣r❡❞♦♠✐♥❛♥t ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
r❡s❡❛r❝❤ t❤❡♦r✐❡s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❡♥t✐r❡❧② r❡✢❡❝t❡❞ ✐♥ r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ❆s ✇❡ ♠❡♥t✐♦♥
✐♥ t❤❡ ✜rst ❝❤❛♣t❡r✱ ♠♦st ♠♦❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t❤❡♦r✐❡s ❛r❡ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧❧② ❝♦rr❡❝t ❜✉t
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t st❛t❡s t❤❡② ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡ ❛r❡ ✉s✉❛❧❧② ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈❡✳ ❘❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ❤❛✈❡ ♥♦t ②❡t
❜❡❡♥ r❡❛❝❤❡❞ s✉❝❤ st❛t❡s✳ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤❡rs✱ ✉s✐♥❣ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤❡s✱ ❛r❡ tr②✐♥❣ t♦
❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❜② ♠❛❦✐♥❣ s❧✐❣❤t t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥s t♦ ❛❝❝♦♠♠♦❞❛t❡
t❤❡s❡ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ r❡❛❧✐t✐❡s✳

✸✳✼✳ ❈❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤❡s t♦ st✉❞②✐♥❣ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ✹✼
✸✳✼ ❈❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤❡s t♦ st✉❞②✐♥❣ ♠❛r❦❡t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s
▼❛r❦❡t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s r❡❢❡rs t♦ t❤❡ st✉❞② ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ❚❤❡
t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❢♦✉♥❞❛t✐♦♥s ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♠♦❞❡❧s✱ ✉s❡❞ t♦ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡ s✉❝❤ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s✱ ❛r❡
❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❛ ❢❡✇ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ♣❛r❛❞✐❣♠s✿
• ●♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ t❤❡♦r② ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣❡❞ ❜② ✭ ▼❛r❦♦✇✐t③ ✱✶✾✺✷ ✮
• ❈❛♣✐t❛❧ ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ t❤❡♦r② ✱ ❈❆●▼✱ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣❡❞ ❜② ✭ ❙❤❛r♣❡ ✱✶✾✻✹ ✮
• ❚❤❡ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t② t❤❡♦r② ✐♥✐t✐❛t❡❞ ❜② ✭ ❇❡r♥♦✉❧❧✐ ✱✶✾✺✹ ✮
• ❊✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡t ❤②♣♦t❤❡s✐s ♣r♦♣♦s❡❞ ❜② ✭ ❋ ❛♠❛ ✱✶✾✼✵ ✮
❆s ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s ❝❤❛♣t❡r✱ t❤❡ ❡♥s❡♠❜❧❡ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ t❤❡♦r✐❡s ❤❛s ❜❡❡♥
❢♦✉♥❞ ♥♦t t♦ ❝♦✐♥❝✐❞❡ ✇✐t❤ s♦♠❡ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ♣r♦♦❢ ✭❛❧s♦ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✬st②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts✬✮✳ ●♦♦❞
r❡✈✐❡✇s ♦❢ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ♣✉③③❧❡s ❝❛♥ ❜❡ s❡❡♥ ✐♥ ✭ ❚❤✉r♥❡r ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱✷✵✶✷ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❈♦♥t ✱✷✵✵✶ ✮✳
❚❤❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s t❤❛t r❡st ❛t t❤❡ ❢♦✉♥❞❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ t❤❡♦r✐❡s ❛r❡ r❛t❤❡r str✐❝t ❛♥❞
❛r❡ ♦❢t❡♥ q✉♦t❡❞ ❛s t❤❡ s♦✉r❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞✐s❝r❡♣❛♥❝② ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥
❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t r❡❛❧✐t② ✳ ❚❤❡ ❛❢♦r❡♠❡♥t✐♦♥❡❞ t❤❡♦r✐❡s s❤❛r❡ ❛ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧
❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✿
• ❆❧ ❧ tr ❛❞❡rs ❛r ❡ r ❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✿ ș♥ t❤❡ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢♦✉♥❞✐♥❣ t❤❡♦r✐❡s✱ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s
t❤❛t t❤❡ tr❛❞❡r ❤❛s ♣❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡s t❤❡ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢
❤✐s ✉t✐❧✐t② ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✳
• ❆❧ ❧ tr ❛❞❡rs ❤❛✈❡ ❤♦♠♦ ❣❡♥♦✉s ❡①♣ ❡ ❝t❛t✐♦♥s ✿ ❚❤✐s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t
tr❛❞❡rs s❤❛r❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛❜♦✉t r❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞ r✐s❦s ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❚❤✐s
❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ❝♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ✈ ❛❧✐❞ ✐♥ t✇♦ ✇❛②s✿
✶✳ ❆❧❧ tr❛❞❡rs s❤❛r❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ s✐♥❝❡ t❤❡② ❛r❡ ❛❧❧ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧②
r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ t❤❡② ❛rr✐✈❡ ❛t t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥
✷✳ ❚ r❛❞❡rs ❞♦♥✬t ❤❛✈❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❜✉t t❤❡② ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡♠
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦♥ t❤❡✐r ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ r✐s❦ ❛♥❞ r❡t✉r♥
• ❚ r ❛❞✐♥❣ ♠❡ ❝❤❛♥✐s♠s ❞♦♥ ✬t ❛✛❡ ❝t ♣r✐❝ ❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✿ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥t ♠❡t❤♦❞s ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❧❧♦✇ ❢♦r t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❚❤✐s st❛t❡♠❡♥t ❛❧s♦ ❛ss✉♠❡s t❤❛t
✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ tr❛❞❡s ❞♦♥✬t ❤❛✈❡ ❛♥② ❡✛❡❝t ♦♥ ♣r✐❝❡s✳
• ❚❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐s ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ✿ ❚❤✐s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ❤❛s ♠❛♥② ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❛❝ts ❛s ❛
s❛❢❡t②✲♥❡t ❢♦r t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✳ ❋✐rst❧② ✱ t❤✐s ✐❞❡❛ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t ❛❧❧ ❧❡ss
t❤❛♥ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ s✉♣♣♦s❡❞ t♦ ❜❡ ❞r✐✈❡♥ ♦✉t ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❜❡❝❛✉s❡
t❤❡ ♦t❤❡r r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ♣r♦✜t ♦✛ ♦❢ t❤❡♠✳ ❙❡❝♦♥❞❧② ✱ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛❣❡♥ts
✇✐t❤ ❧❡ss t❤❛♥ ♣❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ❞r✐✈❡♥ ♦✉t ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❜② ❛❣❡♥ts
✇✐t❤ s✉♣❡r✐♦r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤✐r❞❧② ✱ ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐❧❧ ❤❛✈❡ ♦♥❧② r❛t✐♦♥❛❧
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ♣❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐t ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡❤❛✈❡ ❛s ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡t✳

✹✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✸✳ ❖❜ ❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞②
❙♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✜rst ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ st✉❞✐❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✐♥ t❡♥❞❡❞
t♦ s✉♣♣ ♦rt t❤❡s❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t t❤❡♦r✐❡s✳ ◆❡✇ ❛♥❞ ♠♦r❡ ♣ ♦ ✇ ❡r❢✉❧ t❡sts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ r❡✈ ❡❛❧❡❞ ♠❛♥ ②
♠♦r❡ ✐♥❝♦♥s✐st❡♥❝✐❡s ✐♥ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ✭❯♥✮ ❢♦rt✉♥❛t❡❧② s♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ st ②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts
✜rst ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r❡❞ ✭❧✐❦ ❡ t❤❡ ✬❏❛♥ ✉❛r② ❡✛❡❝t✬ ♦r t❤❡ ✬▼♦♥❞❛ ② ❡✛❡❝t✬✮ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❢❛❞❡❞ ❛ ✇ ❛ ②
✭♣r♦❜❛❜❧② ❞✉❡ t♦ ❛r❜✐tr❛❣❡✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❞✐s❛♣♣ ❡❛r❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ s✉❝ ❤ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❢❛❝ts ❤❛s s♣❛r❦ ❡❞
t❤❡ ❞❡❜❛t❡ ❛❜ ♦✉t ✇❤❡t❤❡r st ②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts ❛r❡ ❥✉st ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛ t❤❛t ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡❞
❜ ② t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✭❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ✐♠♠✐♥❡♥ t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②✮ ♦r t❤❛t ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❡ ♥❡❡❞ ❢♦r
r❡✈✐s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❢♦✉♥❞✐♥❣ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳
❘❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❢♦ ❝✉s❡❞ t❤❡✐r ❛tt❡♥ t✐♦♥ ♦♥ t❤❡ ✈ ❡r✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❧❧ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥
❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t❤❡♦r✐❡s✳ ▼✐❝r♦str✉❝t✉r❡ st✉❞✐❡s ❢♦ ❝✉s ♦♥ t❤❡
❧✐♥❦s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠✳ ❊✈✐❞❡♥❝❡✱ ❧✐❦ ❡
✭ ❖✬❍❛r❛ ✱ ✶✾✾✽ ✮✱ ❡①✐sts t❤❛t t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ❝❛♥ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ♦❢ ♠❛r✲
❦ ❡ts✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r t❤❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤r♦✉❣❤♦✉t ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐s ❛♥ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t
❢❛❝t♦r ❢♦r ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✭ ●❧♦st❡♥ ❛♥❞ ▼✐❧❣r♦♠ ✱ ✶✾✽✸ ✮✳
❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✱ ❛♥ ❡♠❡r❣✐♥❣ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ tr❡♥❞✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐❣❛t❡s t❤❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ♦❢
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ❛♥❞ ❤♦♠♦❣❡♥❡✐t ② ✳ ❚❤❡ t ✇ ♦ ♠❛✐♥ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣✐❡s ✉s❡❞ ✐♥ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✲
✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❛r❡ ❡①♣ ❡r✐♠❡♥ t❛❧ st✉❞✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❊①♣ ❡r✐♠❡♥ t❛❧
st✉❞✐❡s ❝♦♥s✐st ♦❢ ❡✐t❤❡r s✉r✈ ❡②s ♦r ❧❛❜ ♦r❛t♦r② ❡①♣ ❡r✐♠❡♥ ts✳ ❚❤❡s❡ st✉❞✐❡s ❛r❡ ✉s❡✲
❢✉❧ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡② ❝❛♥ ❝♦♥ tr♦❧✱ t♦ ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❡①t❡♥ t✱ t❤❡ ❡♥ ✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥ t❛❧ s❡tt✐♥❣s ♦❢
t❤❡ st✉❞✐❡❞ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡✐r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✇❤❡♥ ❢❛❝❡ ✇✐t❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t r❡✲
❧❛t❡❞ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✐♠ ♦❢ t❤✐s t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ st✉❞✐❡s ✐s t♦ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r ❤♦ ✇ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♠❛❦ ❡
❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ✉♥❞❡r r✐s❦✳ ●r♦✉♥❞✲❜r❡❛❦✐♥❣ ❛❞✈ ❛♥❝❡s ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡s❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s ❤❛ ✈ ❡
❜ ❡❡♥ ♠❛❞❡ ❜ ② ◆♦❜ ❡❧ ●r✐③❡ ✇✐♥♥❡r ❉❛♥✐❡❧ ❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥ ✭✐♥ ❛ss♦ ❝✐❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❆♠♦s ❚ ✈ ❡r✲
s❦②✮✳ ❚❤❡✐r ✬♣r♦s♣ ❡❝t t❤❡♦r②✬✱ ✭ ❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❚ ✈ ❡rs❦② ✱ ✶✾✼✾ ✮✱ s❤♦ ✇s ❤♦ ✇ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♣ ❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡♣ ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ ❡♥ ✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ✭❡✳❣✳
❧♦ss❡s✱ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤✮✳ ❆ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ❛rt✐❝❧❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ♦❢ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✐s
✭ ▼✐tr♦✐ ❆ ❞r✐❛♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✼ ✮✳
▼✐❝r♦str✉❝t✉r❡ ❛♥❞ ❡①♣ ❡r✐♠❡♥ t❛❧ st✉❞✐❡s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ ♣r♦ ♦❢ t❤❛t ♠♦st ❛ss✉♠♣✲
t✐♦♥s✱ ✉s❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ❢♦✉♥❞✐♥❣ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s✱ ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❡♥❝♦✉♥ t❡r❡❞ ✐♥ r❡❛❧✲
✐t ② ✳ ❙t✐❧❧✱ t❤❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② t❤❡♦r② st❛t❡ t❤❛t t❤❡s❡ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧
✜♥❞✐♥❣s ❛r❡ ❛ s♦✉r❝❡ ♦❢ ♣r♦✜t ❢♦r r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ s✉r❡ t♦ ❜ ❡ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡❞✳
❚ ♦ t❡st s✉❝ ❤ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✱ ❛ ♥❡✇ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ❤❛s ❜ ❡❡♥ ❞❡✈✐s❡❞✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞
✬❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥✬✳
✸✳✽ ❙✉♠♠❛r②
ș♥ t❤✐s ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✇ ❡ ♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ♦❢ ❛ ❣❡♥❡r✐❝ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱
❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ t❤❡ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t♦ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❋✐rst❧② ✱
✇ ❡ s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞ ❤♦ ✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ q✉❛❧✐t ② ❝❛♥ ❛✛❡❝t t❤❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❙❡❝♦♥❞❧② ✱
✇ ❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ❝❛t❡❣♦r✐❡s ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡s✱ ♦❢ ♣ ❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥✱ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦r ❝♦❣♥✐t✐♦♥✱
✇❤✐❝ ❤ r❡❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs s✉✛❡r ❢r♦♠✳ ❚❤✐r❞❧② ✱ ✇ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡

✸✳✽✳ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ✹✾
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠s t❤❛t ❡①✐st ✐♥ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❲ ❡ ❣❛ ✈ ❡ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡s t♦ st✉❞✐❡s t❤❛t
s❤♦ ✇ ❤♦ ✇ t❤❡s❡ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠s ❛✛❡❝t t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ◆❡①t ✇ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ t❤❡
✬st ②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts✬ ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ♠❛r❦ ❡t q✉❛❧✐t ② ♠❡❛s✉r❡s t❤❛t s❤♦ ✇ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ✐♥❝♦♥s✐st❡♥❝✐❡s
❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ r❡❛❧✐t✐❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❝✉rr❡♥ t ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t❤❡♦r✐❡s✳
ș♥ t❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥✱ ✇ ❡ ♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤❡s ✉s❡❞ ✐♥ ❛♥❛❧②③✐♥❣ t❤❡
❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳

❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹
❆❣❡♥t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦❝❦
♠❛r❦❡ts
❈♦♥t❡♥ts
✹✳✶ ❈♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✶
✹✳✷ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✻
✹✳✷✳✶ ❉❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✻
✹✳✷✳✷ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✻
✹✳✷✳✸ ❆ ❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ♦❢ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✾
✹✳✸ ❚ ♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✶
✹✳✸✳✶ ◆♦t❛❜❧❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✷
✹✳✸✳✷ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✽
✹✳✸✳✸ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ t✐♠❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✾
✹✳✸✳✹ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✾
✹✳✸✳✺ ❇✐❛s ✐♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss✐♥❣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✵
✹✳✸✳✻ ❘✐s❦ ❛♥❞ t✐♠❡ ♣r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✶
✹✳✸✳✼ ❆❣❡♥ t ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✶
✹✳✸✳✽ ❆❣❡♥ t str❛t❡❣② ❜✐❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✸
✹✳✸✳✾ Pr✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✸
✹✳✹ ❈r✐t✐❝s ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛s ❛ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞✲
♦❧♦❣② ❢♦r r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✹
✹✳✹✳✶ ❊q✉✐✈ ❛❧❡♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛♥❞ ❛
♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✻
✹✳✶ ❈♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s
❇❡❢♦r❡ ✇❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❛♥❞ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣✉r♣♦s❡ ❛♥❞ ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉✲
❧❛t♦r ✇❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❜❛s✐s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s ✐t s♦❧✈❡s✳
ș♥ t❤❡ ✇♦r❧❞ ♦❢ ❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝s✱ t❤❡ ❤②♣♦t❤❡s✐s ❛♥❞ ♠❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ r❡❞✉❝t✐♦♥✐s♠✱ ❛s
♥♦t❡❞ ❜② ✭ ◆❛❣❡❧ ✱ ✶✾✻✶ ✮✱✭ ❆♥❞❡rs♦♥ ✱ ✶✾✼✷ ✮✱ ✐s ✇✐❞❡❧② ❛❝❝❡♣t❡❞ ❛s ❛ ✈ ❛❧✐❞ ❛♥❞ ♣r♦❞✉❝✲
t✐✈❡ ♠❡t❤♦❞ ♦❢ r❡s❡❛r❝❤✳ ▼❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ r❡❞✉❝t✐♦♥✐s♠ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡❞✱ ❧♦♦s❡❧② ✱ ❛s

✺✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
t❤❡ ✐❞❡❛ t❤❛t ❛ s②st❡♠✱ ❜ ❡ ✐t ❛ ❤ ✉♠❛♥✱ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t ♦r ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛✱ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❢✉❧❧② ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞
❜ ② ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❧❛ ✇s t❤❛t ❣♦ ✈ ❡r♥ t❤❡ ✐♥♥❡r ❜❛s✐❝ ♣❛rt✐❝❧❡s ♦❢ t❤❛t s②st❡♠✳
❘❡❞✉❝t✐♦♥✐s♠ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ✈✐❡✇ ❛s t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧✱ ✇❤❡♥ ♦♥❡ t❤❡♦r② ❝❛♥ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ❡①♣❧❛✐♥
❛♥♦t❤❡r t❤❡♦r② ✱ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ♦r ♦♥ t♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧✱ ❢♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ✇❤❡♥ ✇ ❡ ✈✐❡✇ t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❧❞
♦❢ ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ❝♦♠♣ ♦s❡❞ ♦❢ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ ♣❛rt ✭❧✐❦ ❡ t❤❡ ❛t♦♠✮✳ ❲ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❢♦ ❝✉s ♦♥ t❤❡
♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❛s♣ ❡❝ts ♦❢ r❡❞✉❝t✐♦♥✐s♠✳
ș♥ ✭ ❆♥❞❡rs♦♥ ✱ ✶✾✼✷ ✮ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦r ❝♦♥❢r♦♥ ts t❤✐s ❤ ②♣ ♦t❤❡s✐s ❛♥❞ s❤♦ ✇s ❛ ❢❡✇ ❡①✲
❛♠♣❧❡s ✇❤❡♥ r❡❛❧✐t ② ♣ ♦✐♥ ts t❤❛t r❡❞✉❝t✐♦♥✐s♠ ✐s ♥♦t ❡♥♦✉❣❤✳ ❲ ❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ ❛ ❢❡✇
❡①❛♠♣❧❡s ♦❢ s②st❡♠s✱ ❝❧♦s❡r t♦ ♦✉r ❞♦♠❛✐♥ ♦❢ ❡①♣ ❡rt✐s❡✱ t❤❛t ❝❛♥♥♦t ❜ ❡ ❢✉❧❧② ✉♥✲
❞❡rst♦ ♦ ❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ r❡❞✉❝t✐♦♥✐st ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡s ✇✐❧❧ ❣✉✐❞❡ t❤❡ r❡❛❞❡r
t♦ ✇ ❛r❞s ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞✐♥❣ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s✱ t❤❡✐r ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s ❛♥❞ ❤♦ ✇ ❝❛♥ ♦♥❡ st✉❞②
t❤❡♠✳
❆ s②st❡♠ ✐s ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ❜ ② ❛ s❡t ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts✱ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡♠✱
❧♦ ❝❛t❡❞ ✇✐t❤✐♥ ❛ ❜ ♦✉♥❞❛r② t❤❛t ❞❡✜♥❡s t❤❡ s✉rr♦✉♥❞✐♥❣s ♦❢ t❤❡ s②st❡♠✳ ❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱
❛ ♣ ♦ ♦❧ t❛❜❧❡ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ ❛s ❛ s②st❡♠ ✭s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✹✳✶ ✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❜❛❧❧s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ s✐❞❡s
♦❢ t❤❡ t❛❜❧❡ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t t❤❡ s②st❡♠✬s ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♦✉t❡r s✐❞❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ t❛❜❧❡ ❛❝t
❛s ❛ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ ❜ ♦✉♥❞❛r② ✳ ❚❤❡ ❜❛❧❧s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ t❛❜❧❡ s✐❞❡s ❝❛♥ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ❣✉✐❞❡❞ ❜ ②
❛ ♠✐① ♦❢ ❢♦r❝❡s✿ ❣r❛ ✈✐t ② ✱ ❢r✐❝t✐♦♥ ✭✇✐t❤ ❛✐r ❛♥❞ t❛❜❧❡✮ ❛♥❞ ❡❧❛st✐❝ ❞❡❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭✇❤❡♥
❜❛❧❧s ❝♦❧❧✐❞❡ ✇✐t❤ ❡❛❝ ❤ ♦t❤❡r ♦r ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ t❛❜❧❡ s✐❞❡s✮✳
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✹✳✶✿ ❘❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❣❡♥❡r✐❝ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ s✉❝ ❤ ❛ s②st❡♠✱ ❛ ♣ ♦ ♦❧ t❛❜❧❡✱ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇s ❦♥♦ ✇♥ r✉❧❡s ✇ ❡ ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❝♦♥str✉❝t
❛♥ ❛♥❛❧②t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ t❤❛t ♣r❡❞✐❝ts t❤❛t st❛t❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ s②st❡♠ ✭♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛❧❧s✱ ❡t❝✳✮✳
ș❢ ✇ ❡ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ s②st❡♠✱ ❜ ② ❤✐tt✐♥❣ ❛ ❜❛❧❧ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❝✉❡✱ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦ ❡❛s✐❧② ♣r❡❞✐❝t
t❤❡ tr❛ ❥❡❝t♦r② ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛❧❧ ❛♥❞ t❤❛t ♦❢ t❤❡ ✜rst ❜❛❧❧s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❛❧s♦ t♦✉❝ ❤❡❞✳ ș♥ ❢❛❝t✱
♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧ ♣ ♦ ♦❧ ♣❧❛ ② ❡rs ❞♦ t❤❡s❡ ❦✐♥❞s ♦❢ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ❛♥❞ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ✇✐♥
♣ ♦ ♦❧ ❣❛♠❡s✳ ❆ s✐♠✐❧❛r s②st❡♠ ✐s r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ ❜ ② ❛ ❝❛r ♦♥ ❛ r♦❛❞✳ ❲ ❡ ❦♥♦ ✇ ❛❧❧

✹✳✶✳ ❈♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s ✺✸
t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ♦❢ ❛ ❝❛r ❛♥❞ ❤♦ ✇ t❤❡② ✇ ♦r❦ ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t ✇✐t❤ ❡❛❝ ❤ ♦t❤❡r✳ ș❢ ✇ ❡
st❛rt t❤❡ ❡♥❣✐♥❡ ❛♥❞ ♣✉s❤ t❤❡ r✐❣❤ t ♣ ❡❞❛❧s t❤❡ ❝❛r ✇✐❧❧ st❛rt ♠♦ ✈✐♥❣ ❢♦r✇ ❛r❞s ✭♦r
❜❛❝ ❦✇ ❛r❞s✮ ✐♥ ❛ ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❞❡♣ ❡♥❞s ♦♥ t❤❡ ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ st❡❡r✐♥❣ ✇❤❡❡❧ ❛♥❞ t❤❡
❣❡❛r s❡❧❡❝t❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❣❡❛r✲s✇✐t❝ ❤✳ ❙♦ ❢❛r✱ ❛ ❝❛r ❧♦ ♦❦s ❧✐❦ ❡ ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ s②st❡♠✳ ❲ ❡ ❝❛♥
❞❡✜♥❡ ❛ ✧s✐♠♣❧❡ s②st❡♠✧ ❛s ❛ s②st❡♠ t❤❛t ❤❛s✱ ❛s ❛ ✇❤♦❧❡✱ ♣r♦♣ ❡rt✐❡s ✭tr❛ ❥❡❝t♦r② ✱
st❛t❡s✱ ❡t❝✳✳✮ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❛r❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡❞ ❢r♦♠ ❦♥♦ ✇✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣r♦♣ ❡rt✐❡s ♦❢ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧
❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts✳ ❆ ♣ ♦ ♦❧ t❛❜❧❡ ❛♥❞ ❛ ❝❛r ❛r❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ ❛s ✧s✐♠♣❧❡ s②st❡♠s✧✳
❲❤❛t ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥s ✐❢ ✇ ❡ ❞❡❝✐❞❡ t♦ ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝❡ ❛ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ❞r✐✈ ❡r ✐♥ t♦ t❤❡ ❝❛r✬s s②st❡♠❄
❆r❡ ✇ ❡ st✐❧❧ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ♣r❡❞✐❝t t❤❡ ❝❛r✬s ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥❄ ❲ ❡ ❝❛♥✱ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ ✇ ❡ ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❡
❧❛ ✇s t❤❛t ❛ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ❞r✐✈ ❡r ♦❜ ❡②s✳ ❯♥❢♦rt✉♥❛t❡❧② ✱ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ♥♦ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s t❤❛t ❝❛♥
♣r❡❞✐❝t t❤❡ ✇ ❛ ② ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❛ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ❞r✐✈ ❡r ❛❝ts✳ ❈♦♥s❡q✉❡♥ t❧② ✇ ❡ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s
❛❜ ♦✉t ❤♦ ✇ ❛ ❞r✐✈ ❡r ✇✐❧❧ ❛❝t✱ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❲ ❡ ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t ❛ ❞r✐✈ ❡r
r❡❞✉❝❡s s♣ ❡❡❞ t♦ ❛ ✈ ♦✐❞ ♦❜st❛❝❧❡s ♦r st❛ ②s ♦♥ t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t s✐❞❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ r♦❛❞✳ ❯s✐♥❣ t❤✐s
♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✇ ❡ ♠❛❦ ❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ r♦❛❞ s②st❡♠✬s st❛t❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱
❦♥♦ ✇✐♥❣ t❤❛t ♣ ♦❧✐❝❡♠❡♥ ♣❧❛❝❡ s❛♥❝t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ✜♥❡s ♦♥ ❞r✐✈ ❡rs t❤❛t ♠✐s❜ ❡❤❛ ✈ ❡✱ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥
❡✈ ❡♥ ♣ ♦st✉❧❛t❡ ❛♥ ✬❡✣❝✐❡♥ t r♦❛❞s✬ t❤❡♦r❡♠✿
✬❆ tr ❛♥s♣ ♦rt❛t✐♦♥ s②st❡♠ ✐s ❝ ❛❧ ❧❡ ❞ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ✐❢ t❤❡ tr✐♣s ♦❢ ❛❧ ❧ ❝ ❛rs ❛r ❡ ❢❛st ❛♥❞
♦♥ t✐♠❡ ✬✳ ❚ ♦ ❡♥s✉r❡ s✉❝ ❤ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✱ r❡❣✉❧❛t♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❝r❡❛t❡❞ tr❛✣❝ ❝♦♥ tr♦❧❧❡rs ✭❡✳❣✳
tr❛✣❝ ♣ ♦❧✐❝❡✱ tr❛✣❝ s✉r✈ ❡✐❧❧❛♥❝❡ ❡q✉✐♣♠❡♥ t✮ t❤❛t ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ s❛♥❝t✐♦♥ ✐rr❡❣✉❧❛r✐t✐❡s✳
ș❢ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ✐rr❡❣✉❧❛r✐t✐❡s ❛r❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡❞ ✭q✉❡✉❡s✱ r♦❛❞❜❧♦ ❝ ❦s✱ ❡t❝✳✮✱ tr❛✣❝ ❝♦♥ tr♦❧❧❡rs
✐♥ t❡r✈ ❡♥❡ ✭✇✐t❤ s❛♥❝t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ✜♥❡s✮ t❤ ✉s ❢♦r❝✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✬♥♦♥✲r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✬ ❞r✐✈ ❡rs t♦ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈ ❡
✇ ❡❧❧ ✐♥ tr❛✣❝✳ ❆ ❝♦r♦❧❧❛r② t♦ t❤✐s t❤❡♦r❡♠ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ t❤❛t ❛❧❧ ❞r✐✈ ❡rs ❛r❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛♥❞
♦❜ ❡② ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② t❤❡ tr❛✣❝ ❧❛ ✇s✳ ❚❤♦s❡ t❤❛t ❛r❡ ♥♦t r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♦r ❞♦♥✬t ♦❜ ❡② r✉❧❡s ❛r❡
q✉✐❝ ❦❧② ✜♥❡❞ ❛♥❞ ♣✉♥✐s❤❡❞ ✉♥ t✐❧ t❤❡② ❞♦ ❜ ❡❝♦♠❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❞r✐✈ ❡rs ♦r t❤❡② ❧♦s❡ t❤❡
r✐❣❤ t t♦ ❞r✐✈ ❡✳
❚❤❡ r❡s✉❧t ♦❢ s✉❝ ❤ ❛ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✐s t❤❛t ✇ ❡ ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ♠✐ss ♦✉t ♦♥ ❛ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ s②st❡♠
st❛t❡s ✭❧✐❦ ❡ tr❛ ✈ ❡❧✐♥❣ ♦♥❧② ✐♥ r❡✈ ❡rs❡✱ s♣ ❡❡❞✐♥❣ ✇❤✐❧❡ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤✐♥❣ ❛♥ ♦❜st❛❝❧❡ ♦r
❝ ❤❛♥❣✐♥❣ ❧❛♥❡s✱ ✢✐♣♣✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❝❛r ✉♣s✐❞❡ ❞♦ ✇♥ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ ❡①❝❡ss✐✈ ❡ s♣ ❡❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ ❝✉r✈ ❡✱
❡t❝✳✮✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ ❡✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ tr❛✣❝ ❝♦♥ tr♦❧ ❤❛s ❜ ❡❡♥ ✐♥ ♣❧❛❝❡ ❢♦r ❛ ❧♦♥❣ t✐♠❡ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧t
✐s ✇ ❡ st✐❧❧ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛❜❧❡ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ♠✐s❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♥❣ ❞r✐✈ ❡rs t❤❛t ♦❢t❡♥ ♣r♦ ✈ ♦❦ ❡
tr❛✣❝ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s✳ ❊✈ ❡♥ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡s❡ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ❢❛❝t♦rs ❛r❡ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡❞✱ tr❛✣❝ ✐s st✐❧❧ ♥♦t
❡✣❝✐❡♥ t s✐♥❝❡ ✇ ❡ ♦❢t❡♥ s❡❡ r♦❛❞ ❥❛♠s✳ ș♥ r❡❛❧ ❧✐❢❡ ❞r✐✈ ❡rs ❛r❡ ♦❢t❡♥ ✈ ❡r② ✧❝r❡❛t✐✈ ❡✧
❛♥❞ s✉r♣r✐s✐♥❣ ✐♥ t❤❡✐r ❛❝t✐♦♥s✱ ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❛t ❛❧❧ ♦r❞❡r❧② ❛♥❞ r❡s♣ ❡❝t❢✉❧ ♦❢ tr❛✣❝ ❧❛ ✇s
✭❛s ♦✉r ✧❡✣❝✐❡♥ t r♦❛❞s✧ t❤❡♦r② ♣r❡❞✐❝ts✮✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♥♦♥✲❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐st✐❝ ♥❛t✉r❡
♦❢ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ t❤✐♥❦✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❛❝t✐♦♥s✱ ✐t ✐s ❛❧♠♦st ✐♠♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛♥ ❛♥❛❧②t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧
♦❢ ❛ ❤ ✉♠❛♥✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥♥♦t ❡❛s✐❧② ♣r❡❞✐❝t t❤❡ st❛t❡ ♦❢ ❛ s②st❡♠ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❤❛s ❛s ❛
❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ t ❛ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ❢❛❝t♦r✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❦✐♥❞ ♦❢ s②st❡♠s✱ ❛♠♦♥❣ ♦t❤❡rs✱ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ ❝♦✐♥❡❞
✧❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s✧✳ ❙❡❡ ✭ ▲✐❝❛t❛ ❛♥❞ ❙❛❦ ❛ ❥✐ ✱ ✷✵✵✽ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❑❛♥❡❦ ♦ ❛♥❞ ❚ s✉❞❛ ✱ ✷✵✵✶ ✮
❢♦r ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥s t♦ t❤❡ t❤❡♦r② ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s✳
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ✧❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s✧ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t ❛ ♥❡✇ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞② ✱ t❤❡② ❞♦♥✬t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛
st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥✳ ❍❡r❡ ❛r❡ ❛ s❡t ♦❢ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ♠❛ ② ❜ ❡tt❡r ❡①♣r❡ss t❤❡ ✐❞❡❛
♦❢ ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠✿

✺✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
• ❆ ❝ ♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠ ✐s ❛ ❤✐❣❤❧② str✉❝t✉r ❡ ❞ s②st❡♠✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ s❤♦✇s str✉❝t✉r ❡ ✇✐t❤
✈❛r✐❛t✐♦♥s ✭◆✳ ●♦❧❞❡♥❢❡❧❞ ❛♥❞ ❑❛❞❛♥♦✛ ✮
• ❆ ❝ ♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠ ✐s ♦♥❡ ✇❤♦s❡ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ✐s ✈❡r② s❡♥s✐t✐✈❡ t♦ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ ❝ ♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s
♦r t♦ s♠❛❧ ❧ ♣ ❡rt✉r❜ ❛t✐♦♥s✱ ♦♥❡ ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝❤ t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜ ❡r ♦❢ ✐♥❞❡♣ ❡♥❞❡♥t ✐♥t❡r ❛❝t✐♥❣
❝ ♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ts ✐s ❧❛r ❣❡✱ ♦r ♦♥❡ ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝❤ t❤❡r ❡ ❛r ❡ ♠✉❧t✐♣❧❡ ♣ ❛t❤✇❛②s ❜② ✇❤✐❝❤ t❤❡
s②st❡♠ ❝ ❛♥ ❡✈♦❧✈❡ ✭❲❤✐t❡s✐❞❡s ❛♥❞ șs♠❛❣✐❧♦ ✈✮
• ❆ ❝ ♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠ ✐s ♦♥❡ t❤❛t ❜② ❞❡s✐❣♥ ♦r ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦r ❜ ♦t❤ ✐s ❞✐✣❝✉❧t t♦
✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❛♥❞ ✈❡r✐❢② ✭❲ ❡♥❣✱ ❇❤❛❧❧❛ ❛♥❞ ș② ❡♥❣❛r✮
• ❈♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s ❛r ❡ s②st❡♠s ✐♥ ♣r ♦ ❝ ❡ss t❤❛t ❝ ♦♥st❛♥t❧② ❡✈♦❧✈❡ ❛♥❞ ✉♥❢♦❧❞ ♦✈❡r
t✐♠❡ ✭❲✳ ❇r✐❛♥ ❆rt❤ ✉r✮✳
• ❈♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s ❛r ❡ ❝ ♦♠♣ ♦s❡ ❞ ♦❢ ✐♥t❡r ❛❝t✐♥❣ ✉♥✐ts✳ ❚❤❡② ❡①❤✐❜✐t ❡♠❡r ❣❡♥t
♣r ♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s✱ t❤❛t ✐s✱ ♣r ♦♣ ❡rt✐❡s ❛r✐s✐♥❣ ❢r ♦♠ t❤❡ ✐♥t❡r ❛❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ✉♥✐ts t❤❛t
❛r ❡ ♥♦t ♣r ♦♣ ❡rt✐❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✉♥✐ts t❤❡♠s❡❧✈❡s ✭❋❧❛❦❡ ●✳❲✳✮
❆❧❧ t❤❡s❡ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ ✐❞❡❛ ❜ ❡❤✐♥❞ t❤❡♠✿ ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠✬s
♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ❛r❡ ❤❛r❞ t♦ ♣r❡❞✐❝t ❜ ② ❦♥♦ ✇✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ♣❛rts ❛♥❞ ❛♣♣❧②✐♥❣ ❛
❝❧❛ss✐❝ ❛♥❛❧②t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳ ❚❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t s✉❜t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s✳ ❈❤❛♦t✐❝
s②st❡♠s ❛r❡ ✈ ❡r② s❡♥s✐t✐✈ ❡ t♦ ✐♥♣✉t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✳ ❉❡♣ ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ t❤❡ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ st❛t❡ t❤❡
s②st❡♠ ❝❛♥ ❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣ ✭♥♦♥✮❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐st✐❝ ♥♦♥✲❡✈✐❞❡♥ t ❢✉t✉r❡ st❛t❡s ✭❧✐❦ ❡ t❤❡ ❇r♦ ✇♥✐❛♥
♠♦ ✈ ❡♠❡♥ t ♦r ❛ ❞♦✉❜❧❡ ♣ ❡♥❞✉❧✉♠✮✳ ❆ ❞❛♣t✐✈ ❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts
t❤❛t ❡✈ ♦❧✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❛❞❛♣t t❤❡✐r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ t❤❡ ♣❛st ❡①♣ ❡r✐❡♥❝❡s
✭❧✐❦ ❡ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ✐♠♠ ✉♥✐t ② s②st❡♠✱ ❜✐r❞ ✢♦ ❝ ❦s✱ ❡t❝✳✮✳
▼♦ ❞❡r♥ s❝✐❡♥❝❡ ❤❛s✱ ✉♥ t✐❧ r❡❝❡♥ t❧② ✱ ✈✐❡✇ ❡❞ ♠♦st s②st❡♠s ❛s ❜ ❡✐♥❣ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❛♥❞ ❤❛s
♠♦ ❞❡❧❡❞ t❤❡♠ ✉s✐♥❣ ❢❡✇ ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛♥❞ ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s str✉❝t✉r❡✳ ❚❤✐s ♠❡t❤♦ ❞
❤❛s ✇ ♦r❦ ❡❞ ❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧② ✇ ❡❧❧ ✐♥ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ s❝✐❡♥❝❡s ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❞❡❛❧ ✇✐t❤ ✉♥✐✈ ❡rs❛❧ ❧❛ ✇s ✭❣r❛ ✈✐t ② ✱
♠♦t✐♦♥✱ ❡♥ tr♦♣ ② ✱ ❡t❝✳✮✳ ❲✐t❤ s✉❝ ❤ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s✱ s❝✐❡♥ t✐sts ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r❡❞ ♥ ✉❝❧❡❛r ❡♥❡r❣② ✱ ❣❛s
♠♦t♦rs ❛♥❞ ❡❧❡❝tr✐❝✐t ② ✳ ❯s✐♥❣ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ r❡❞✉❝t✐♦♥✐st ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇ ✇ ❡ ✐♠♠❡❞✐❛t❡❧②
♥♦t✐❝❡ t❤❛t t ✇ ♦ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ s②st❡♠s✿ ❞✐❛♠♦♥❞s ❛♥❞ ❣r❛✣t✐ ✭✉s❡❞ ✐♥ ♣ ❡♥❝✐❧s✮✳ ❇♦t❤
s②st❡♠s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❜❛s✐❝ str✉❝t✉r❛❧ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ❤❡r❡ ❝❛r❜ ♦♥ ❛t♦♠s✮ ② ❡t ❝❛♥
❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❡①tr❡♠❡❧② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♦ ✈ ❡r❛❧❧ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ str✉❝t✉r❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦♥♥❡❝t✐♦♥s
❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❛t♦♠s ✐s s❧✐❣❤ t❧② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t✳ ❊①t❡♥❞✐♥❣ t❤✐s ✐❞❡❛✱ ✇ ❡ s❡❡ t❤❛t ❡✈ ❡r②t❤✐♥❣
❛r♦✉♥❞ ✉s ✐s ♠❛❞❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❛t♦♠s ❜✉t t❤❡ ♣❛tt❡r♥s ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ✐♥ t❡r❝♦♥♥❡❝t✐♦♥s ❝❛♥
❧❡❛❞ t♦ ✈ ❡r② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♦❜ ❥❡❝ts ✭❡✳❣✳ ✐♥❦✱ ❡❣❣ s❤❡❧❧s✱ ❤❛✐r✱ ♣ ❡tr♦❧✱ ❡t❝✳✳✳✮✳
ș❢ ✇ ❡ r❡❣❛r❞ ❛ s②st❡♠ ❝♦♥s✐st✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❛ ❝ ❤✐❝ ❦ ❡♥ ❡❣❣ ✇ ❡ ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❛t ✐❢ ✇ ❡ ❞♦♥✬t ❡①♣ ♦s❡
t❤✐s ❡❣❣ t♦ ❤❡❛t ✭♦r t♦ t♦ ♦ ♠ ✉❝ ❤ ❤❡❛t✮ ✐t ✇✐❧❧ ❣♦ ❜❛❞ ✭r♦t✮✳ ș♥st❡❛❞✱ ✐❢ t❤❡ ❡❣❣ ✐s
♣r♦♣ ❡r❧② ❤❡❛t❡❞ ✭❝♦♥st❛♥ t t❡♠♣ ❡r❛t✉r❡ ♦♥ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ s✐❞❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡❣❣✮ ✐t ✇✐❧❧ ❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣ ✐♥ t♦
❛ ❧✐✈✐♥❣ ❝ ❤✐❝ ❦ t❤❛t ✇✐❧❧ ❜r❡❛❦ t❤❡ ❡❣❣ s❤❡❧❧✳ ❲❤✐❧❡ ✐t ❧♦ ♦❦s s✐♠♣❧❡✱ ❢r♦♠ ❛ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✐♥❣
♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇ ✐t ✐s ❛ ❞✐✣❝✉❧t ♣r♦❜❧❡♠ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ s❧✐❣❤ t ✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ ❢❛❝t♦r
❧❡❛❞s t♦ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t r❡s✉❧ts ✭❞❡❝♦♠♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ ✈s✳ t❤❡ ❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣♠❡♥ t ♦❢ ❛ ♥❡✇
❧✐❢❡ ❢♦r♠✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❡❣❣ ❛❝ts ❧✐❦ ❡ ❛ ❝ ❤❛♦t✐❝ s②st❡♠ s✐♥❝❡

✹✳✶✳ ❈♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s ✺✺
❛ ✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ ✐♥♣✉t ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ✭❡✳❣✳ t❡♠♣ ❡r❛t✉r❡✮ ❝❛♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ✈ ❡r② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t
r❡s✉❧ts ✐♥ t❤❡ s②st❡♠ ♦✉t♣✉ts✳
❆ ❝ ❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣✐♥❣ t❤❛t ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❤❛s✱ ❛s ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ ts✱ ♠❛♥ ② ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s
✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s✱ ❡❛❝ ❤ ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡♠ ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ❛ ♥♦♥✲❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐st✐❝ s②st❡♠✱ ✇ ❡ s❛❢❡❧② s❛ ② t❤❛t
❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐s ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠✳ ✵r♦❢❡ss♦r ❍❡r✈ ❡ ❆❧❡①❛♥❞r❡ ♠❡♥ t✐♦♥❡❞✱ s❡❡
✭ ❍❡r✈ ❡ ✱ ✶✾✾✹ ✮✱ t❤❡ ♣❤r❛s❡ ✧❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐st✐❝ ❝ ❤❛♦s✧ ✇❤❡♥ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ș♥
t❤❡ tr❛❞✐t✐♦♥❛❧ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ♠♦ ❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✱ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛r❡ ✈✐❡✇ ❡❞ ❛s ✈ ❡r② s✐♠✲
♣❧❡ s②st❡♠s ✇✐t❤ ❤♦♠♦❣❡♥♦✉s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❛t ❝♦♠♣ ❡t❡ ❛♥❞ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❡①❝❡❧❧❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t
❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤✐s ✇ ❛ ② ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ st✉❞②✐♥❣ s②st❡♠s✱ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♣ ❡rs♣ ❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♦❢ ❛♥
✐❞❡❛❧✐③❡❞ ❢r❛♠❡✇ ♦r❦✱ ✇ ❛s ❜ ♦rr♦ ✇ ❡❞ ❢r♦♠ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ s❝✐❡♥❝❡s✳ ș♥ ♦✉r ♦♣✐♥✐♦♥✱ ❛ t❤❡✲
♦r② ❧✐❦ ❡ ❈❆✵▼ ✐s ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② s✉✐t❡❞ ❢♦r t❤❡ st✉❞② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ✧ ✐❞❡♥t✐❝ ❛❧
♣ ❡r❢❡ ❝t❧②✲s♣❤❡r✐❝ ❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t❤❛t tr ❛❞❡ ♥♦♥✲st♦♣ ✉s✐♥❣ ✐♥✜♥✐t❡ r ❡s♦✉r ❝ ❡s ✐♥ ❛ ✈❛❝✉✲
✉♠❡ ❞ t❤❡r♠♦ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝ ❛❧ ❧② st❛❜❧❡ ❡♥✈✐r ♦♥♠❡♥t ✧✳ ❚❤❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠ ✇✐t❤ t❤✐s ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤ ✐s
t❤❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣ ❡❞ t❤❡♦r② ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❛❞❛♣t❡❞ ❛♥❞ ♠❛✐♥ t❛✐♥❡❞ ❛s ✈ ❛❧✐❞
❡✈ ❡♥ ✇❤❡♥ s♦♠❡ ♦❢ ✐ts✬ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ r❡❧❛①❡❞✳ ❆s ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s❡❡♥✱ r❡❧❛①✐♥❣ ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡s
✐s ♥♦t ❛♥ ❛❝❝❡♣t❛❜❧❡ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s ✇❤❡r❡ s❧✐❣❤ t ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡s ♦❢
t❤❡ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ s②st❡♠ st❛t❡s ✭❤❡❛t❡❞ ♦r ♥♦t ❤❡❛t❡❞ ❡❣❣✮ ❝❛♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t
❢✉t✉r❡ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ st❛t❡s✳ ș♥s✐❞❡ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s②st❡♠✱ ❛ s❧✐❣❤ t ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ❛✛❡❝t✐♥❣ ❛ ✈ ❛r✐✲
❛❜❧❡✱ ❢♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ❛ ♥❡✇ ❧❛ ✇ ❧✐❦ ❡ ✬❝♦♠♣✉❧s♦r② s✉❜♣r✐♠❡ ❧♦❛♥s ♦♥ ❜❛♥❦✬s ❛ss❡ts✬✱ ❝❛♥
❝r❡❛t❡ ❡①tr❡♠❡ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ t❤❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ ts ✭r❡❛❧✲❡st❛t❡ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥✱ ❡①✲
❝❡ss✐✈ ❡ ❝♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥✱ ❤✐❣❤❡r ❛♣♣ ❡t✐t❡ ❢♦r r✐s❦✮ ♦r ✐♥s✐❞❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✬s str✉❝t✉r❡ ✭❞❡❜t
s❡❝✉r✐t✐③❛t✐♦♥✱ ❛ss❡t ♣❛❝ ❦ ❛❣✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ r❡♣❛❝ ❦ ❛❣✐♥❣✮✳ ❙✉❝ ❤ s②st❡♠✐❝ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡s✱ tr✐❣❣❡r❡❞
❜ ② s♠❛❧❧ ✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥♣✉ts✱ ❝❛♥♥♦t ❜ ❡ ❝❛♣t✉r❡❞ ✐♥s✐❞❡ ❛❜str❛❝t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝ ✭st♦ ❝ ❤❛s✲
t✐❝✮ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ❤♦♠♦❣❡♥♦✉s ♠♦ ❞❡❧s✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡② ❛❞❛♣t t♦ ♥❡✇ ✐♥♣✉ts
❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥s ✇✐t❤ ♥❡✇ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t✐❡s✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ r❡❛❝t ❛♥❞ ❝r❡❛t❡ ♥❡✇
♥♦♥✲❡✈✐❞❡♥ t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ❢♦r ❡✈ ❡r② ♥❡✇ ✐♥♣✉t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤✐s ❝♦♥✲
st❛♥ t ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ ts ✐♥ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛♥ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ st❛t❡ ✭❡✳❣✳
❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t✮ ♠❛ ② ♥♦t ❡✈ ❡♥ ❜ ❡ r❡❛❝ ❤❛❜❧❡ ✭♦r ❛t ❧❡❛st ♥♦t ✐♥ ❛ t✐♠❡ s❝❛❧❡ ♦❢ ✐♥ t❡r✲
❡st✮✳ ✭ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ✷✵✵✺❛ ✮ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥s ❤♦ ✇ ❝♦♠♣❧❡①✐t ② ❣♦ ✈ ❡r♥s ❛♥❞ s❤♦✉❧❞ ❜ ❡ t❛❦ ❡♥ ✐♥ t♦
❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤❡♥ ❧♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ❛t ❝r✐t✐❝❛❧ ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❧❞ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳
❉✉❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❤♦♠♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s ❛♥❞ r❡❛❝t✐✈ ❡ ♥❛t✉r❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ✐♥s✐❞❡ ❛ ❝♦♠✲
♣❧❡① s②st❡♠✱ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ♦❢ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ❛r❡ ♦❢t❡♥ ♥♦t ✈ ❡r② ✉s❡❢✉❧✳ ❚❤❡
❝♦♥❝❡♣t ♦❢ ♠ ✉❧t✐✲❛❣❡♥ t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❡♠❡r❣❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤✐s ♥❡❡❞ ♦❢ ♠❛❦✐♥❣ ❜ ❡tt❡r ♠♦ ❞❡❧s
♦❢ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s✳ ❇② ❝r❡❛t✐♥❣ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ s②st❡♠ ✇❤❡r❡ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡
r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡❧② s✐♠♣❧❡ r✉❧❡s ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t ✇✐t❤ ❡❛❝ ❤ ♦t❤❡r ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ r❡❝r❡❛t❡ s②st❡♠✲✇✐❞❡
♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s t❤❛t r❡s❡♠ ❜❧❡ t❤♦s❡ ♦❢ r❡❛❧ s②st❡♠s✳
❆♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❛ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ t♦ ♦❧ t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ♦❢
❛ r❡❛❧ s②st❡♠ ✉s✐♥❣ s✐♠♣❧❡ r✉❧❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s✳ șt ✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t t♦ ♥♦t❡
t❤❛t ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ s②st❡♠ ❝❛♥ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ s②st❡♠ q✉❛❧✐t✐❡s ♦❢ ❛ r❡❛❧ s②st❡♠✳
❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤✐s ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r❡❞ t❤❛t ❜✐r❞s ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ❢♦❧✲
❧♦ ✇ t❤r❡❡ s✐♠♣❧❡ r✉❧❡s t♦ ❢♦r♠ t❤❡ ❱✲s❤❛♣ ❡❞ ✢♦ ❝ ❦ ❛rr❛♥❣❡♠❡♥ ts ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ❞✉r✐♥❣
♠✐❣r❛t✐♦♥ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s✳

✺✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
ș♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱ t❤❡ ❣♦❛❧ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✐s t♦ ✜♥❞ s❡ts ♦❢ ♠✐❝r♦
s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥ r✉❧❡s ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ❤♦ ✇ t❤❡s❡ r✉❧❡s ❛✛❡❝t t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ❝ ❤❛r✲
❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✿ ♣r✐❝❡s✱ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡s✱ ♠✐❝r♦str✉❝t✉r❡ q✉❛❧✐t ② ❛♥❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧
❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✳ ❈❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤❡s ❢♦r st✉❞②✐♥❣ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ r❡❣❛r❞❡❞ ❛s
❡q✉❛t✐♦♥✲❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s✳ ❙✉❝ ❤ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ✉s✉❛❧❧② ♠❛❦ ❡ ❤❛r❞ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❧✐❦ ❡ t❤❛t ❛❧❧
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞✱ t❤❛t t❤❡② ❛r❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✭❛s ♦♣♣ ♦s❡❞ t♦ ❜ ♦✉♥❞❡❞
r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✇ ❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ✐♥ t❤✐s ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r✮✳ ❆❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✐♥❣ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡s ❛ r✐❣✲
♦r♦✉s ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ ❢♦r r❡❧❛①✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ t❡st✐♥❣ t❤❡s❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✭❡✳❣✳ ❧✐♠✐t❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱
❜ ♦✉♥❞❡❞ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ♦r ♦❜s❡r✈✐♥❣ ❢❛r ❢r♦♠ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ st❛t❡s✮✳
✹✳✷ ❆❣❡♥t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥
✹✳✷✳✶ ❉❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts
❆♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✐s ❛ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ t♦ ♦❧ t❤❛t s❤♦ ✇s t❤❡ ❡♠❡r❣❡♥ t ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ♦❢ ❛
s②st❡♠ st❛rt✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ s②st❡♠✬s ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts✳ ❇② ✉s✲
✐♥❣ t❤✐s t♦ ♦❧✱ ✇ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ♦❢ ❛ s②st❡♠✱ ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s t❤❡✐r
✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥s✱ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡ t❤❡ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡s❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ❛t ❛♥ ②
❧❡✈ ❡❧ ♦❢ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t✐♦♥✳ ❋ r♦♠ ❛ ❜r♦❛❞❡r ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇✱ ❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ❛❧❧♦ ✇s
✉s t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡ ✐♥✲✈✐tr♦ ❡①♣ ❡r✐♠❡♥ ts ♦❢ ❧❛r❣❡ s②st❡♠s ✭❧✐❦ ❡ r❡♣r♦ ❞✉❝✐♥❣ ❛ ❝✐t ②✬s tr❛♥s✲
♣ ♦rt❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥❢r❛str✉❝t✉r❡✮✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ♠❛♥♥❡r ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❝❛✉s❛❧✐t ②
❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ✐♥♣✉ts✱ s❡ts ♦❢ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ r✉❧❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ s②st❡♠✳
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛r❡ ❛ ❣❡♥❡r✐❝ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ t♦ ♦❧ ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❧♦ ♦❦ ❛t ✐ts
❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s ❢❛❝❡❞ ❜ ② s♦ ❝✐❛❧ s❝✐❡♥❝❡✱ ❛♥❞ ❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧② ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ș♥
❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✱ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ❞✐st✐♥❣✉✐s❤ ❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ❜r❛♥❝ ❤ ♦❢ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❛❣❡♥ t
❜❛s❡❞ ❝♦♠♣✉t❛t✐♦♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✱ t❤❛t tr② t♦ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ❡♠❡r❣❡♥ t ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛ ✉s✐♥❣ ♠ ✉❧t✐✲
❛❣❡♥ t t♦ ♦❧s✳ ●♦ ♦ ❞ ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♣ts✱ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤❡s ❛♥❞ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s ♦❢
❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❝♦♠♣✉t❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✱ ❛r❡ ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❢r♦♠ ✭ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✻❜ ✮✱
✭ ❊♣st❡✐♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✻ ✮✱✭ ❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦ ♦ ✱ ✷✵✶✷ ✮✱ ✭ ❉❡r✈ ❡❡✉ ✇ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✼❛ ✮✱ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❇❡❛✉✜❧s ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱
✷✵✵✾ ✮✳
✹✳✷✳✷ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s
❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♠❛ ② ❜ ❡ ✉s❡❞ ✐♥ ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ✇❤❡r❡ ❡♠❡r❣❡♥ t ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛ ❛r❡
❢♦✉♥❞✳ ❲❤❡♥ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s✐♥❣ s✉❝ ❤ ❛ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ t♦ ♦❧✱ ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t♦ s❡❛r❝ ❤ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛t✐❝
❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ♦❢ t❤❡ s②st❡♠s t❤❛t ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ❜ ❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧❡❞✿
✶✳ ❙✐♠♣❧❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣✐♥❣ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s ❞♦ ♥♦t ✇ ♦r❦✳ ❙②st❡♠s ❡①❤✐❜✐t t❤❡ ♠♦st
✐♥ t❡r❡st✐♥❣ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r✐t✐❡s ✐♥ ❡①tr❡♠❡ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣✐♥❣ ♠❛ ② ❤✐❞❡ s✉❝ ❤
❡✈ ❡♥ ts✳
✷✳ ș♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs ❝❛♥♥♦t ❜ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ ❜ ② s✐♠♣❧❡ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥s ♦r ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t✐❛❧
❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s✳ ș♥st❡❛❞✱ t❤❡s❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs ❛r❡ ❜ ❡st ♠♦ ❞❡❧❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥✲❛❝t✐♦♥

✹✳✷✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✺✼
r✉❧❡s ✭❡①✿ t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞s ❢♦r ❝ ❤❛♥❣✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣❛tt❡r♥ ♦❢ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✱ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ✐♥♣✉t ✲
s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ❛❝t✐♦♥✱ r❛r❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs ♦r ❜ ♦rr♦ ✇✐♥❣ ♦❢ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❢r♦♠ ♦t❤❡r ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉✲
❛❧s✮✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❡①❤✐❜✐t ♥♦♥✲❧✐♥❡❛r ✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ ❤❛ ✈ ❡
♠❡♠♦r② ✳ ✭ ❍✉❛♥❣ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✵ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ✷✵✵✺❜ ✮ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❛♥ ❛tt❡♠♣t ❛t
❡①♣❧❛✐♥✐♥❣ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ✉s✐♥❣ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❛♥❞ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈ ❡ ❤❡t❡r♦✲
❣❡♥❡✐t ② ✳
✸✳ ❈♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ♦❢ t❤❡ s②st❡♠s ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t ❧♦ ❝❛❧❧② ✱ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ♥♦♥✲❤♦♠♦❣❡♥♦✉s t♦♣ ♦❧♦✲
❣✐❡s ✭❧✐❦ ❡ ❛ s❝❛❧❡✲❢r❡❡ t♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ✲ s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✹✳✷ ✮✳ ❙❧✐❣❤ t ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s ✐♥ t❤❡
s②st❡♠✬s t♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ❧❡❛❞s t♦ ✈ ❡r② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡❞ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs ❡✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ t❤❡ ✐♥✲
❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s ❛r❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡✳
✹✳ ❚❤❡ ❡♠❡r❣❡♥ t ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ s②st❡♠ ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❡✈✐❞❡♥ t ✐❢ ✇ ❡ ❧♦ ♦❦ ❛t ✐ts ✐♥❞✐✲
✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥s✳
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✹✳✷✿ ✭❆✮ ❈❡♥ tr❛❧✐③❡❞ ✭❇✮ ❙❝❛❧❡✲❢r❡❡ ✭❈✮ ❈❧♦s❡❧② ❞✐str✐❜✉t❡❞ ✲ ●r❛♣❤s ✇✐t❤
❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t t♦♣ ♦❧♦❣✐❡s ♦❢ ❝♦♥♥❡❝t✐♦♥s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❡♥ t✐t✐❡s ♦❢ ❛ s②st❡♠
ș♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✹✳✷ ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤r❡❡ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ t♦♣ ♦❧♦❣✐❡s t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ✉s❡❞ t♦ ♠♦ ❞❡❧
✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥ ♣❛tt❡r♥s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ♦❢ ❛ s②st❡♠✳ ❚❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥
❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡♥ ✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ✇❤❡♥ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥✐♥❣ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs✳ ❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥
❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ❛ ♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❜❛♥❦✐♥❣ s❡❝t♦r ❛s ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ♦r❣❛♥✐③❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ❝❡♥ tr❛❧✐③❡❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✭s❡❡
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✹✳✷ ❆✮✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡✱ t❤❡ ❝❡♥ tr❛❧ ♥♦ ❞❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛♥❦✐♥❣ s❡❝t♦r ❝❛♥ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t
t❤❡ ❝❡♥ tr❛❧ ❜❛♥❦✳ ❲✐t❤ t❤✐s r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❛t✐♦♥ ✐t ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ❜ ❡ ❡❛s② t♦ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r t❤❛t t❤❡
♦♥❧② s♦✉r❝❡ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝♦♥ t❛❣✐♦♥ ✭♦r ❝❛s❝❛❞✐♥❣ ❜❛♥❦r✉♣t❝②✮ ✐s t❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡ ❝❡♥ tr❛❧
❜❛♥❦✳ ❋ ♦r ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ s✐♠♣❧✐❝✐t ② ✱ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ❧✐❦ ❡ t❤❡ ❊r❞♦s ❘❡②♥✐✶r❛♥❞♦♠ ❣r❛♣❤✲
♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ✉s❡❞✳ ❊✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ t❤❡s❡ r❛♥❞♦♠ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ❛r❡ ♠♦r❡ s✐♠♣❧❡ t♦ ❤❛♥❞❧❡ t❤❡② ❞♦
✶s❡❡ ✭ ❊r❞♦✬s ❛♥❞ ❘❡♥ ②✐ ✱ ✶✾✻✵ ✮ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♦r✐❣✐♥❛❧ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❊r❞♦s✲❘❡②♥✐ r❛♥❞♦♠ ❣r❛♣❤
♠♦ ❞❡❧

✺✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
♥♦t ♠❛♥❛❣❡ t♦ ❝❛♣t✉r❡ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡①✐t ② ♦❢ r❡❛❧ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥ ♣❛tt❡r♥s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❜❛♥❦s✳
ș♥ r❡❛❧ ❜❛♥❦✐♥❣ s❡❝t♦rs✱ ❛s r❡♣ ♦rt❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ●❛❧❜✐❛t✐ ❛♥❞ ❙♦r❛♠❛❦✐ ✱ ✷✵✵✽ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ●❛❧❜✐❛t✐
❛♥❞ ❙t❛♥❝✐✉✲❱✐③✐t❡✉ ✱ ✷✵✶✸ ✮✱ ❜❛♥❦ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ❜ ❡tt❡r ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ ❜ ② ✱ s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡
✹✳✷ ❇✱ s❝❛❧❡✲❢r❡❡ ♥❡t ✇ ♦r❦s ✭s♦♠❡ ❜❛♥❦s t❡♥❞ t♦ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♠ ✉❝ ❤ ♠♦r❡ ❝♦♥♥❡❝t✐♦♥s t❤❛♥
♦t❤❡r ❜❛♥❦s t❤ ✉s ❝r❡❛t✐♥❣ ♠♦r❡ ♣ ♦✐♥ ts ♦❢ ❝♦♥ t❛❣✐♦♥✮✳ ❖❢ ❝♦✉rs❡✱ s❝❛❧❡✲❢r❡❡ ♥❡t ✇ ♦r❦s
❛r❡ ✈ ❡r② ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ❛♥❞ ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ♦❢ ❛ s②st❡♠s ✭❤❡r❡ t❤❡ ❜❛♥❦s✮
❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ tr❛✐t ♦❢ ♣r❡❢❡r❡♥ t✐❛❧ ❛tt❛❝ ❤♠❡♥ t✳ ✣r❡❢❡r❡♥ t✐❛❧ ❛tt❛❝ ❤♠❡♥ t ❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦
❜ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡❞ ✐♥ s♦ ❝✐❛❧ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥s❤✐♣s✱ ✇❤❡r❡ ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡ t❡♥❞ t♦ ❝❧✉st❡r ❛r♦✉♥❞ ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥
✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✭❧✐❦ ❡ t❤❡ ❢❛t❤❡r ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢❛♠✐❧②✮✳ ❖t❤❡r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡s ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥❝❡
♦❢ t♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ❛♥❞ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s ❛r❡ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ ✐♥ ✭ ❙♠❛❧❞✐♥♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱
✷✵✶✷ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❉❡r✈ ❡❡✉ ✇ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✼❜ ✮✳
❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ ✐♥ ✉s❡ s✐♥❝❡ t❤❡ ❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣♠❡♥ t ♦❢ ♠♦ ❞❡r♥ ❝♦♠✲
♣✉t❡rs✳ ❙♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs✬ ❡❛r❧✐❡st ✉s❡s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✜❡❧❞ ♦❢ ❛✉t♦♠♦❜✐❧❡
tr❛✣❝ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s✳ ❙❡❡ ✭ ❙❤❡♥ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✶ ✮ ♦r ✭ ▼❡✐st❡r ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✵ ✮ ❢♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡s ♦❢
r❡❛❧ ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ s✉❝ ❤ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs✳ ❚❤r♦✉❣❤ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s✱ ❝✐t ② ♦✣❝✐❛❧s ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡
✐♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ st♦♣✲❧✐❣❤ t t✐♠✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥✐♥❣✱ r♦✉♥❞❛❜ ♦✉ts✱ ♣r✐♦r✐t ② ♦r ♦♥❡✲
✇ ❛ ② ❧❛♥❡s✳ ❚❤❡s❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s s❤♦ ✇ tr❛✣❝ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✐♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧ st❛t❡s ✭♥♦r♠❛❧ ❞r✐✈✐♥❣
❤♦✉rs✮ ❜✉t ❛❧s♦ ✐♥ ✉♥st❛❜❧❡ st❛t❡s ✭♣ ❡❛❦ ❤♦✉rs✱ ✇❤❡♥ ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡ ❣♦✴r❡t✉r♥ ❢r♦♠ ✇ ♦r❦✮✳
❙✉❝ ❤ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ♦❧ ♣ ❡r♠✐ts ❝✐t ② ♣❧❛♥♥❡rs t♦ t❡st ❛♥❞ ❛❞❛♣t str❡❡t ♣ ♦❧✐❝✐❡s ❜ ❡❢♦r❡
✐♠♣❧❡♠❡♥ t✐♥❣ t❤❡♠ ♦♥ t❤❡ str❡❡ts✳ ș♥ ♠❡❞✐❝✐♥❡✱ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ✉s❡❞ t♦
♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠s s✉❝ ❤ ❛s t❤❡ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ✐♠♠ ✉♥❡ s②st❡♠✱ ✐♥✢❛♠♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛✲
♥✐s♠s ♦r t❤❡ s♣r❡❛❞ ♦❢ ❜❛❝t❡r✐❛ ❛♥❞ ✈✐r✉s❡s ✭s❡❡ ✭ ✣ ❛r❛♥❥❛♣ ❡ ❛♥❞ ❙❛❞❛♥❛♥❞ ✱ ✷✵✶✵ ✮ ❢♦r
❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ r❡✈✐❡✇✮✳ ș♥ ❝♦♠♠❡r❝✐❛❧ ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s✱ ❛❣❡♥ ts ❛r❡ ✉s❡❞ t♦ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❧♦❣✐st✐❝ ❛♥❞
s✉♣♣❧② ❝ ❤❛✐♥s ♦r ❝♦♥s✉♠❡r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✳ ș♥ ❝✐✈✐❧ ❝♦♥str✉❝t✐♦♥s✱ ❛❣❡♥ t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛r❡
✉s❡❞ t♦ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡ ♠♦ ✈ ❡♠❡♥ t ♦❢ ❝r♦ ✇❞s ✐♥s✐❞❡ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣s✳ ❚❤❡s❡ r❡s✉❧ts ✇✐❧❧ ✐♠♣r♦ ✈ ❡
❡✈ ❛❝✉❛t✐♦♥ s❛❢❡t ② ✱ ❛s ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ❇♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✾ ✮✱ ❢♦r ❢✉t✉r❡ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣s ✭s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡
✹✳✸ ✮✳

✹✳✷✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✺✾
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✹✳✸✿ ❙✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✢♦✇ ♦❢ ♣❡♦♣❧❡ ❡✈ ❛❝✉❛t✐♥❣ ❛ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣
❖♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦r❡ r❡❝❡♥t ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠✉❧t✐✲❛❣❡♥t s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ✐♥ t❤❡ ✜❡❧❞
♦❢ s♦❝✐❛❧ s❝✐❡♥❝❡s ❛♥❞ ❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧❧② ✐♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ❖✐❧ ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ♥❛t✉✲
r❛❧ r❡s♦✉r❝❡s ♣r♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❝❡ss❡s ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ♠♦❞❡❧❡❞ ✐♥ s✉❝❤ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs✳ ș♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✱
❛❣❡♥t s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs ❛r❡ ♥♦✇ ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ t♦♦❧s s✉♣♣♦rt✐♥❣ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✐♥
✐ts ♣❛t❤ t♦✇❛r❞s r❡❝r❡❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♠❛♥♥❡r ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝❤ r❡s❡❛r❝❤❡rs t❤✐♥❦ ❛♥❞ ✈✐❡✇ ✜♥❛♥✲
❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐sts ❛r❡ ❛❧r❡❛❞② ✉s✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs ❢♦r ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t
♣✉r♣♦s❡s✿ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ st❛t❡s✱ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦❢
❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ♠❛❝r♦❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ♣♦❧✐❝✐❡s ❛♥❞ r❡❝❡♥t❧② t♦ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ s②st❡♠✐❝ r✐s❦s✳ ❚❤✐s ❛♣✲
♣r♦❛❝❤ ✐♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s✱ ✉s✉❛❧❧② ✐♥❝❧✉❞✐♥❣ ❣❛♠❡ t❤❡♦r② ✱ ✐s ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s✳
✭❋ ❡✐❝❤t✐♥❣❡r ✱ ✶✾✾✶ ✮✱✭ ❇❡❛✉✜❧s ❛♥❞ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ✷✵✵✺ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❊♣st❡✐♥ ❛♥❞ ❆①t❡❧❧ ✱ ✶✾✾✻ ✮
❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ❡❝♦♥♦♠② ✱ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ ♠❡t❤♦❞s t❤❛t s❤♦✉❧❞
❜❡ ✉s❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❤♦✇ t❤❡s❡ ❝❛♥ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ♣✉③③❧❡s t❤❛t ✇❤❡r❡ ♥♦t ②❡t s♦❧✈❡ ✉s✐♥❣ tr❛❞✐t✐♦♥❛❧
r❡s❡❛r❝❤ t♦♦❧s✳
ș♥ ❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡s❡❛r❝❤✱ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs ❛r❡ ✉s❡❞ t♦ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❡
❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❡♥❛❜❧❡ ✭♦r ♥♦t✮ ♠❛r❦❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✱ s❡❡ ✭ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✻❛ ✮✱
t❤❡ ♣♦❧❛r✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ✇❡❛❧t❤✱ s❡❡ ✭ ❇♦tt❛③③✐ ❛♥❞ ❆♥♦✉❢r✐❡✈ ✱ ✷✵✵✹ ✮ ♦r t❤❡ ❛❣❣r❡✲
❣❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥t♦ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❋ ♦r ❛♥ ❡①❝❡❧❧❡♥t r❡✈✐❡✇ ✇❡ r❡❝♦♠♠❡♥❞ ✭ ❚ ❡s❢❛ts✐♦♥ ✱
✷✵✵✻❜ ✮✱✭ ❊♣st❡✐♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✻ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✭ ❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦♦ ✱ ✷✵✶✷ ✮✳ ✭ ❇✳ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✽ ✮ ♠❛❦❡s ❛ ♠♦r❡ ❣❡♥✲
❡r❛❧ ❛ss❡ss♠❡♥t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡①✐t② ❛s♣❡❝ts ♦❢ ♠♦❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s②st❡♠s t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❜❡
❜❡tt❡r ✉♥❞❡rst♦♦❞ ✇✐t❤ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ t♦♦❧s✳
✹✳✷✳✸ ❆ ❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ♦❢ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡
❈❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ♠❡t❤♦❞s t❤❛t t❡st ♠❛r❦❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ❤❛✈❡ t❤❡ ♠❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ✐ss✉❡ ❝❛❧❧❡❞
t❤❡ ❥♦✐♥t ❤②♣ ♦t❤❡s✐s ♣r ♦❜❧❡♠ ✳ ❚❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ✐❞❡❛ ♦❢ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✐s t❤❛t ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s

✻✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
r❡✢❡❝t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ❛♥❞ t❤✐s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ t❡st❡❞ ♦♥❧② ✐❢ ✇ ❡ ❛❝t✉❛❧❧②
❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ ❛ ♠♦ ❞❡❧
❢♦r t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✭✇❤✐❝ ❤ t❤❡② ❛ss✉♠❡ ✐s ❝♦rr❡❝t✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡♥ r❡s♦❧✈ ❡ t♦ s❡❡ ✐❢ t❤❡
♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❝♦♥ ✈ ❡r❣❡s t♦ t❤❡ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧❧② ❝♦rr❡❝t ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ♦r ♥♦t✳ ❚❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✐❞✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡
❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② t❡st ✐s ❧✐♥❦ ❡❞ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✐❞✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡ ❥♦✐♥ t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳ ș♥ ❛♥
❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ t❤❡ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ ✉s❡❞ t♦ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ t❤❡ st♦ ❝ ❦✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐s ❛①✐♦♠❛t✐❝❛❧❧② ❝♦rr❡❝t✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡r ❤❛s t♦ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡ ✇ ❛ ②s ✐♥
✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ❝❛♥ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ❛♥ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ♦✉t♣✉t ✭❧✐❦ ❡ t❤❡
♣r✐❝❡✮ ❡✈ ❡♥ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡② ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳
❲ ❡ ❧✐st ❛♥❞ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ s♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦st ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✲
✉❧❛t♦r r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤✿
• ❆tt❛✐♥❛❜✐❧✐t② ✿ ❆s ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ ✐♥ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✷✳✼ ✱ ❛ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② st❛t❡ ✐♥ ❛
♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠❛ ② ❜ ❡ tr✉❡ ❜✉t ♥♦t ♥❡❝❡ss❛r✐❧② ❛tt❛✐♥❛❜❧❡ ✭❛t ❧❡❛st ♥♦t ♦♥ t✐♠❡ s❝❛❧❡s
♦❢ ✐♥ t❡r❡st✮✳ ❯s✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ s❤♦ ✇ ❤♦ ✇✱ st❛rt✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ❛
♣❧❛✉s✐❜❧❡ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t st❛t❡✱ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❝❛♥ r❡❛❝ ❤ ✭st❡♣ ❜ ② st❡♣✮ ❛♥
❡✣❝✐❡♥ t st❛t❡ ✭✐❢ ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡✮✳
• ❈❛✉s❛❧✐t② ✿ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐st✐❝ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧②
♦❜s❡r✈ ❛❜❧❡✱ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❛❝❝✉r❛t❡ ✬❝❡t❡r✐s ♣❛r✐❜✉s✬ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡
t❤❡ ❝❛✉s❛❧ ❧✐♥❦s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ♠✐❝r♦ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ t❤❡✐r ❞❡s✐r❡❞ ❛❣❣r❡✲
❣❛t❡ st❛t❡s✳
• ❋❧❡①✐❜✐❧✐t② ✿ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡ ✉s❡❞ ✐♥ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
✭❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♣r♦❣r❛♠♠✐♥❣ ❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡✮ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥s ✭❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧② t❤♦s❡
✉s❡❞ ❢♦r ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✮ ✐s ❡❛s✐❧② ♠♦ ❞✐✜❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❛❞❛♣t❡❞ t♦
❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♥❡❡❞s✳ ❚❤✐s ✢❡①✐❜✐❧✐t ② ❛❧❧♦ ✇s r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs t♦ ❡❛s✐❧② ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥s
♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭♦r ♦❢ ♦t❤❡r ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts✮ t♦ ❜ ❡tt❡r r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t t❤❡ r❡❛❧✐t✐❡s
♦❢ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛♥❞ t❤❡✐r ❝♦♥ t❡①t✳
• ◆♦r♠❛t✐✈❡ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞✐♥❣ ✿ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧❡❞ t♦ ❛❞❛♣t ❛♥❞
r❡❛❝t t♦ t❤❡ ❡♥ ✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥ t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ✭❡✳❣✳ t❛①❡s✱ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥ ❝♦sts✮ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥
♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❡♠❡r❣❡♥ t ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✉♥❞❡r ❛ ❞✐✈ ❡rs❡ s❡t ♦❢ ♥♦r♠s ❛♥❞
r❡❣✉❧❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ♠❛❦ ❡ ✬s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞✬ ❡①♣ ❡r✐♠❡♥ ts ✇✐t❤ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t
r❡❣✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ✐❢ t❤❡ ❞❡s✐r❡❞ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ r❡s✉❧ts ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❛❝ ❤✐❡✈ ❡❞ ❛♥❞
✐♥ ✇❤❛t t✐♠❡ ❢r❛♠❡s✳
• ❚ r ❛♥s♣ ❛r ❡♥❝② ✭❖❜s❡r✈❛❜✐❧✐t②✮ ✿ ❚❤r♦✉❣❤✲♦✉t ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts
❛♥❞ t❤❡✐r st❛t❡s ❛r❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛❜❧❡✳ ❚❤✐s ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡s t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ♦❜✲
s❡r✈✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥ tr♦❧❧✐♥❣ ✈ ❡r② s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ♣❛rts ♦❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳
❆ ❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ ✭ ❈❛♠♣❜ ❡❧❧ ✱ ✷✵✵✵ ✮✱ ✧❇❡❤❛✈✐♦r ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ❝ ❛♥♥♦t ❜ ❡ t❡st❡ ❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛❣✲
❣r ❡ ❣❛t❡ ❝ ♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❜ ❡ ❝ ❛✉s❡ r ❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✉t✐❧✐t②✲♠❛①✐♠✐③✐♥❣ ✐♥✲
✈❡st♦rs ♥❡✐t❤❡r ❝ ♦♥s✉♠❡ ❛❣❣r ❡ ❣❛t❡ ❝ ♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ✭s♦♠❡ ✐s ❛❝ ❝ ♦✉♥t❡ ❞ ❢♦r ❜② ♥♦♥st❛♥✲
❞❛r ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✮ ♥♦r ❤♦❧❞ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ✭✐♥st❡ ❛❞ t❤❡② s❤✐❢t ✐♥ ❛♥❞ ♦✉t ♦❢ t❤❡

✹✳✸✳ ❚ ♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✻✶
st♦ ❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡t✮✧ ✳ ❙♦✱ ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ t❡st s✉❝ ❤ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ✇ ❡ r❡q✉✐r❡ ❞❡t❛✐❧❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ ❡❛❝ ❤ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ t✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ s✉❝ ❤ ♣r✐✈ ❛t❡ ✐♥✲
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❝♦♥✜❞❡♥ t✐❛❧ ❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t❡ ✐s ✉s✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs✳ ș♥ ❛
❧❛❜ ♦r❛t♦r② s❡tt✐♥❣✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❝❛♥ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ q✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈ ❡ ❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣❡ ❛❜ ♦✉t
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s✳ ❚ ♦ ♦❜t❛✐♥ q✉❛♥ t✐t❛t✐✈ ❡ r❡s✉❧ts ✇ ❡ ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ❧✐♥❦ s✉❝ ❤
❛ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✇✐t❤ r❡❛❧ ❞❛t❛ t❤❛t ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ✉s❡❞ ❢♦r t❤❡ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ ♠✐❝r♦✲s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡
♠♦ ❞❡❧✬s ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts✳
❆❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛❧s♦ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❧✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥s ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✇ ❡ ♠ ✉st t❛❦ ❡
✐♥ t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥ t✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ✇ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡ ❛♥ ❡♥ t✐r❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ ❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✇✐❧❧ ✉♥❛ ✈ ♦✐❞❛❜❧②
❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ ❤✐❣❤ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✳ ❙✐♥❝❡ s♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛r❡ ❤❛r❞ ✭❡✈ ❡♥
✐♠♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡✮ t♦ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ✐♥ r❡❛❧✐t ② ✱ ✇ ❡ ❛r❡ ❢♦r❝❡❞ t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s✳ ▲✐❦ ❡ t❤❡
❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ❛r❡ t❤❡ ❜❛s❡ ♦❢ ❛ t❤❡♦r② ✱ ♦✉r ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛r❡ t❤❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s
✇ ❡ ♠❛❦ ❡ ✇✐t❤✐♥ ♦✉r ❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳ ❚❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✐❞✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✐s ❛ ❝r✉❝✐❛❧
❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ❢♦r t❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✐❞✐t ② ♦❢ ♦✉r r❡s✉❧ts✳
✭ ❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦ ♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✶ ✮✱ ✭ ❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦ ♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✵ ✮ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ✐♥ ❞❡t❛✐❧ ❛♥❞ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡
❡①❛♠♣❧❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ✐ss✉❡s t❤❛t ♠ ✉st ❜ ❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ ✇❤❡♥ ❝r❡❛t✐♥❣ r❡❛❧✐st✐❝ ❛❣❡♥ t
❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳
❘♦❜✉st♥❡ss ❝ ❤❡❝ ❦s ❛♥❞ ❝♦ ❞❡ ✈ ❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ ❛r❡ r❡q✉✐r❡❞ t♦ ❡♥s✉r❡ t❤❛t r❡s✉❧ts ♦❢
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ♥♦t t❤❡ ♣r♦ ❞✉❝t ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛♥❝❡ ♦r ❞❡s✐❣♥❡r ✐♥ t❡r✈ ❡♥ t✐♦♥✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ ✇❤❡♥
❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ ♠✐❝r♦✲❧❡✈ ❡❧ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ✭✐♥ ✈ ❡st ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✱ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❣❡♥❡r❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❞✐ss❡♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥✮ ✐t ✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t t♦ r❡st ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ♥♦t ✉s❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s
t❤❛t ❞✐r❡❝t❧② ✐♥❝♦r♣ ♦r❛t❡ t❤❡ ❝❛✉s❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ s❡❛r❝ ❤❡❞✲❢♦r ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛✳ ❚❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ❞✐✛❡r✲
❡♥ t ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤❡s t♦ t❡st✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ✉s❡❞✳ ✭ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ❛♥❞ ▼❛t❤✐❡✉ ✱ ✷✵✵✼ ✮ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡
❛ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t✉❛❧ ❢r❛♠❡✇ ♦r❦ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❡✈ ❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❡❝ ❤♥✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❛♥❞ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞
tr❛❞✐♥❣✳
✹✳✸ ❚ ♦♣♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs
❚ ♦ ❜ ❡tt❡r ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❛♥❞ ❞✐st✐♥❣✉✐s❤ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛✲
t♦rs ✭❆❇❋▼❙✮ ✇ ❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ ❛ t❛①♦♥♦♠ ② ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡s t❤❡ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❞❡s✐❣♥ ❡❧❡♠❡♥ ts
♦❢ ❛♥ ❆❇❋▼❙✳ ❲ ❡ st❛rt❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ s❤♦rt ❝❧❛ss✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡❞ ❜ ② ▲❡❇❛r♦♥ ✐♥ ✭ ❚ ❡s✲
❢❛ts✐♦♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✻❛ ✮✳ ❲ ❡ ❡①♣❛♥❞ t❤✐s t ②♣ ♦❧♦❣② ✇✐t❤ ♥❡✇ ❝❧❛ss✐✜❡rs t❤❛t s❤❡❞ ♠♦r❡ ❧✐❣❤ t
♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ❞❡s✐❣♥ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❆❇❋▼❙✳
❆♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ ts ❛♥ ❛❜str❛❝t ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r✐③❡❞
✈ ❡rs✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ șts ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ✐s t♦ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❛♥❞ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ ❛❝❝❡ss t♦
t❤❡ ❝❛✉s❛❧ ❧✐♥❦s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❡❧❡♠❡♥ ts ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✭♦r ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ❜ ❡✲
❤❛ ✈✐♦r✮ ❛♥❞ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ s❡❝✉r✐t✐❡s ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❚❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤✐s s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞
s②st❡♠ ✇ ❡ ♦❜t❛✐♥ ♥❡✇ ❤ ②♣ ♦t❤❡s❡s ❢♦r t❤❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✲ ❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧②
❢♦r t❤❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❜ ② st❛♥❞❛r❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s ❛♥❞ ♠♦ ❞✲
❡❧s✳ ❲ ❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ ❛ ♥❡✇ s❡t ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s t♦ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡ ❛♥❞ ❞✐st✐♥❣✉✐s❤ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥
❆❇❋▼❙✳ ❊❛❝ ❤ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s r❡♣r❡s❡♥ ts ❛ ❜❛s✐❝ ❞❡s✐❣♥ q✉❡st✐♦♥ t❤❛t ♦♥❡

✻✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
♠✉st ❛♥s✇❡r ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ❜✉✐❧❞ ❛ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r✳ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤❡rs tr② t♦ ❜✉✐❧❞ ♣❛rs✐♠♦♥✐♦✉s
♠♦❞❡❧s ♦❢ t❤❡ r❡❛❧✐t② ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❆❇❋▼❙ t❤❡② str✉❣❣❧❡ t♦ ✜♥❞ ❛ s♠❛❧❧
♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs t❤❛t ❝♦♥tr♦❧s t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ❜✐❣ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ r❡❛❧ ❢❡❛t✉r❡s
♦❢ ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ✭ ▼❛t❤✐❡✉ ❛♥❞ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ✷✵✶✵ ✮✱✭ ❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱
✷✵✶✶ ✮✱✭ ❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✵ ✮ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡ ❤✐♥ts ❢♦r ❛ ❣❡♥❡r✐❝ ♠♦❞❡❧ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r✲
❦❡ts t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ r ❡ ❛❧✐st✐❝ ♠❛r❦❡t s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s✳
❇② ❞❡❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✱ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs t❡♥❞ t♦ ❜❡❝♦♠❡ ♠♦r❡ ❛❜✲
str❛❝t✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ✇❛② ✱ t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ❞❡s✐❣♥ ✐❣♥♦r❡s ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ❛s♣❡❝ts ✇❤✐❝❤
♠❛② ❜❡ ❝r✉❝✐❛❧ ❢♦r ❝r❡❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❧✐♥❦ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ r❡❛❧
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✳
✹✳✸✳✶ ◆♦t❛❜❧❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs
❲ ❡ ♣r❡s❡♥t t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ❝❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ♦❢ s✐① ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs
t❤❛t ❤❛✈❡ ❜❡❡♥ ♦❢t❡♥ q✉♦t❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡✳
❚❤❡ ✬❙❛♥t❛ ❋❊✬ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡t✱ ✭ ▲❡❜❛r♦♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✷ ✮ ❜✉✐❧t ❜② ❇❧❛❦❡ ▲❡❇❛r♦♥✱
❆rt❤✉r ❲✳❇ ❛♥❞ ❈❛❧♠❡r ❘✱ ✐s ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✜rst ♠✉❧t✐✲❛❣❡♥t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs✳ ❆s
✐♥✐t✐❛❧❧② ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs✱ ✬❛♥ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t❛❧ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r s✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡t✬✱
t❤❡✐r ♠♦❞❡❧ ✇❛s ❝r❡❛t❡❞ t♦ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ❛♥❞ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ♦❢
♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ❝r❡❛t❡❞ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇❤❡r❡ ♠✐♥✐✲❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♣r♦❣r❛♠s✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞
❛❣❡♥ts✱ ❝♦✉❧❞ ✐♥✈❡st t❤❡✐r ✇❡❛❧t❤ ✐♥ ❛ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❝♦♥s✐st✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❛ r✐s❦✲❢r❡❡ ❜♦♥❞ ✭✇✐t❤ ❛
❝♦♥st❛♥t r❡t✉r♥✮ ❛♥❞ ❛ r✐s❦② st♦❝❦ t❤❛t ❤❛s ❛ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❢♦❧❧♦✇s ❛♥ ❛✉t♦r❡❣r❡s✲
s✐✈❡ ♣r♦❝❡ss✳ ❆❣❡♥ts ❛r❡ ❛ss✉♠❡❞ t♦ ❜❡ ♠②♦♣✐❝ ✇✐t❤ ♦♥❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ❝♦♥st❛♥t ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡
r✐s❦ ❛✈❡rs✐♦♥ ✭❈❆❘❆✮ ❛♥❞ s❤❛r✐♥❣ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r✐s❦ ❛✈❡rs✐♦♥ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥t✳ ❚❤❡
❛❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥ts ❤❛✈❡ ❛s ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈❡ t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞
✉t✐❧✐t② ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠✿
ˆEi
t(−e−γ∗Wi
t+1) ✭✹✳✶✮
✇❤❡r❡γ ✐s t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ts s❤❛r❡❞ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r✐s❦ ❛✈❡rs✐♦♥ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥t✱ ❛♥❞ Wi
t+1 ✐s ❛❣❡♥t✬s
✐ ❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ ✇❡❛❧t❤ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t ♣❡r✐♦❞✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t ✇❡❛❧t❤ ❛t t✐♠❡ t✰✶ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡s
❤✐s ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t ❛t t✐♠❡ t✱ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤✐s ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥
❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ❛❣❡♥t✳ ❚❤❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s ✐♥ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ts✬ ❞❡♠❛♥❞s ❛r❡ s❡t ❜② t❤❡✐r ❢♦r❡❝❛st ♦❢ t❤❡
❢✉t✉r❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ st♦❝❦✬s ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞✳ ❚ ♦ ♠❛❦❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r✐❝❡s✱
❛❣❡♥ts ♠❛✐♥t❛✐♥ s❡ts ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✬❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥✲❢♦r❡❝❛st✬ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛r❡ r✉❧❡s t❤❛t
♠❛♣ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ✭❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ♦r t❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮ t♦ ❛ ❢♦r❡✲
❝❛st r✉❧❡ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♠❛r❦❡t st❛t❡✳ ❯s✐♥❣ ❣❡♥❡t✐❝ ❛❧❣♦r✐t❤♠s ❛❣❡♥ts ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡ ❛♥❞
❝r❡❛t❡ s✉❝❤ ❢♦r❡❝❛st✐♥❣ r✉❧❡s ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ♠❛❦❡ ❛❝❝✉r❛t❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r✐❝❡s✳
❚❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s s❡t ❡♥❞♦❣❡♥♦✉s❧② ❜② ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ❝❧❡❛r✐♥❣ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠ t❤❛t r❡s♦❧✈❡s
❛❣❡♥t ❞❡♠❛♥❞s ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ❛ ✜①❡❞ s✉♣♣❧② ♦❢ st♦❝❦s✳ ❖❜s❡r✈✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ t✐♠❡
s❡r✐❡s✱ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ❝♦♥❝❧✉❞❡ t❤❛t s✉❝❤ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ♠♦❞❡❧ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡s s✐♠✐❧❛r st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧
♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ✇✐t❤ t❤♦s❡ ♦❢ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s ✭❡✳❣✳ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ✱ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❛❜✐❧✐t②✮✳

✹✳✸✳ ❚ ♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✻✸
▼♦r❡ ✐♥t❡r❡st✐♥❣❧② ✱ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♣♦✐♥t ♦✉t t❤❛t t❤❡ ❤♦r✐③♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥t ❢♦r❡❝❛sts ✭t❤❡
❧♦♥❣❡r t❤❡ ❜❡tt❡r✮ ✐s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ✐♥ ❛❝❤✐❡✈✐♥❣ ♦r ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤✐♥❣ ❛ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧❧② ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞
❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠✳ ❚❤✐s ♠❛r❦❡t ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐s ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✜rst ❝♦♠♣❧✐❝❛t❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧s ♦❢
❛ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❊✈❡♥ ✐❢ t❤❡❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ♠❛♥❛❣❡s t♦ q✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈❡❧② r❡♣❧✐❝❛t❡ s♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣✉③③❧❡ ✇❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡❞ ✐♥ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✱ ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ t♦ ❜❡ ❛✇❛r❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t②
t❤❛t t❤❡s❡ ❢❡❛t✉r❡s ❛r❡ ❡♠❜❡❞❞❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧s✿ t❤❡
❛✉t♦r❡❣r❡ss✐✈❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❢❛❝t t❤❛t ❛❣❡♥ts✬ ❞❡♠❛♥❞s ✭❛♥❞ ❝♦♥✲
s❡q✉❡♥t❧② ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r✐❝❡s✮ ❛r❡ ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ts✬ ❢♦r❡❝❛sts ♦❢ ❢✉t✉r❡ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t②
✭✇❤✐❝❤ ✐s s✐♠♣❧✐✜❡❞ t♦ ❡q✉❛❧ ♣❛st ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t②✮✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ❞❡s✐❣♥ ♦❢ ♦✉r ♠❛r❦❡t ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ ❛❝✲
t✐✈❡❧② ❧♦♦❦❡❞ ♥♦t t♦ ♠❛❦❡ ❛♥② ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❞✐r❡❝t❧② ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ t❤❡ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s
♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ✇❡ ❛r❡ ❧♦♦❦✐♥❣ ❢♦r✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ✇r✐tt❡♥ ❛ s❡q✉❡❧ ❛rt✐❝❧❡✱ ✭ ▲❡❜❛r♦♥ ✱
✷✵✵✷ ✮ ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝❤ t❤❡② ❞r❛✇ ❛tt❡♥t✐♦♥ t♦ s♦♠❡ t❤❡ ✐ss✉❡s t❤❛t ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ❜❡ ✐♠♣r♦✈❡❞ ✐♥
t❤❡✐r ♠❛r❦❡t ❞❡s✐❣♥✳
❆ ❚❖▼✷✐s ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s♦❢t✇❛r❡ t♦♦❧✱ t❤❛t ♦✛❡rs ❛ ❣❡♥❡r ❛❧ ❡♥✈✐r ♦♥♠❡♥t ❢♦r ❛❣❡♥t✲
❜ ❛s❡ ❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ st♦ ❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✳ ❆ ❚❖▼ ✐s ♠❛✐♥t❛✐♥❡❞ ❜② ❛ ❥♦✐♥t r❡s❡❛r❝❤ t❡❛♠ ❛t
t❤❡ ▲✐❧❧❡ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ ❋ r❛♥❝❡✸❛♥❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ❙❛r✐s ✶ ❙❛♥t❤❡♦♥ ❙♦r❜♦♥♥❡✹✳
❯♥❧✐❦❡ ♦t❤❡r ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs ✇❡ ♣r❡s❡♥t✱ ❆ ❚❖▼ ✐s ♠♦r❡ ❣❡♥❡r✐❝ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ ❜❡
❛❞❛♣t❡❞ t♦ ❛ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t r❛♥❣❡ ♦❢ r❡s❡❛r❝❤ ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❆ ❚❖▼ ❤❛s t❤❡ ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t② t♦
s✐♠✉❧❛t❡ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✇✐t❤ ♠❛r❦❡t ♠❛❦❡rs ♦r ✇✐t❤ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦s✳ ▼♦r❡♦✈❡r
❆ ❚❖▼ ✇❛s ❞❡s✐❣♥❡❞ t♦ ❛❝❝♦♠♠♦❞❛t❡ ♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦s ❢♦r ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ♦♥❡ ❛ss❡t✱ ♠❛❦✐♥❣
✐t ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢❡✇ ❝✉rr❡♥t s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs ✇✐t❤ t❤✐s ❝❛♣❛❝✐t② ✳ ❋ r♦♠ t❤❡✐r ❝♦❧❧❛❜♦r❛t✐♦♥
✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ◆❨❙❊✲❊✉r♦♥❡①t✱ t❤❡ ❆ ❚❖▼ ❝r❡❛t♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ❞✉♣❧✐❝❛t❡❞ t❤❡ ❊✉r♦♥❡①t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣
♠❡t❤♦❞s ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s✱ ❛s t❤❡ r❡❛❧ st♦❝❦ ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s✱
st❛rt✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♦r❞❡rs ♦❢ ❛ r❡❛❧ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❙✉❝❤ ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t✐❡s
❛r❡ ❡♥❤❛♥❝❡❞ ❜② ❆ ❚❖▼✬s ❝❛♣❛❝✐t② ♦❢ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♥❣ ❡①tr❛✲❞❛② ❛♥❞ ✐♥tr❛✲❞❛② ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✉s
tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣❡r✐♦❞s✳ ❆ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ st✉❞✐❡s✱ ❧✐❦❡ ✭ ❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦♦ ✱✷✵✶✷ ✮✱ ✭ ❉❡r✈❡❡✉✇
❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✼❜ ✮ ♦r ✭ ❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✵ ✮✱ ❤❛✈❡ ❜❡❡♥ ❝♦♥❞✉❝t❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❆ ❚❖▼✳ ❆
❣♦♦❞ r❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ❆ ❚❖▼✬s ❝❛♣❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❢♦✉♥❞ ❛t ✭ ▼❛t❤✐❡✉ ❛♥❞ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱✷✵✶✷ ✮✳
ș♥ ✷✵✵✶✱ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐st ▼❛r❝♦ ❘❛❜❡rt♦ ❛♥❞ ❤✐s ❝♦❧❧❡❛❣✉❡s ♣✉❜❧✐s❤❡❞ ❛♥ ❛rt✐❝❧❡ ❞❡✲
s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ t❤❡✐r ●❊◆❖❆ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡t✱ ✭ ❘❛❜❡rt♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱✷✵✵✶ ✮✳ ❆s t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs
♠❡♥t✐♦♥✱ t❤❡ ❛✐♠ ♦❢ t❤✐s ♠♦❞❡❧ ✇❛s t♦ ✬ ♦✛❡r ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞✐♥❣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❦♥♦✇♥
st②❧✐③❡ ❞ ❢❛❝ts ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s✱ ✐✳❡✳✱ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❢❛t t❛✐❧s ✐♥ t❤❡
❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ s❤♦rt t❡r♠ r ❡t✉r♥s ✬✳ ❚❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡s ❛❣❡♥ts t❤❛t ❞♦♥✬t r❡❝❡✐✈❡
❛♥② ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ♠❛❦❡ ♦✛❡rs t♦ s❡❧❧✴❜✉② ✱ ✐♥ ❡✈❡r② r♦✉♥❞✱ ✇✐t❤ ❛
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② ♦❢ ❙✴✭✶✲❙✮✳ ❖r❞❡rs s❡♥t t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❛r❡ ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡rs ✇✐t❤ ♣r✐❝❡s ❜❛s❡❞
♦♥ ❛ ❢♦r♠✉❧❛ ❧✐❦❡
Pi=p(h)∗Ni(µ,σi)σi=k∗σ(Ti) ✭✹✳✷✮
✇❤❡r❡p(h) ✐s t❤❡ st♦❝❦✬s ♣r✐❝❡ ❛t t✐♠❡ t ❛♥❞ σ(Ti) ✐s t❤❡ st♦❝❦✬s ❤✐st♦r✐❝❛❧ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✲
✷❆ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❢♦r ❧✐♠✐t❡❞ t❡st✐♥❣ ❛t ❤ tt♣✿✴✴❛t♦♠✳✉♥✐✈✲❧✐❧❧❡✶✳❢r
✸❚ ❡❛♠ ❙▼❆ ❈ ▼✉❧t✐✲❛❣❡♥t ❙②st❡♠s ❛♥❞ ❇❡❤❛✈✐♦rs
✹❤ tt♣✿✴✴✇✇✇✳✉♥✐✈✲♣❛r✐s✶✳❢r✴

✻✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
✐t ② ✳ ❆ t ❡❛❝ ❤ ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✱ ❛❣❡♥ ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❞❡♠❛♥❞s t♦ ❜✉② ♦r s❡❧❧ st♦ ❝ ❦s✳ ❚❤❡
r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r❡❞ ❛t t❤❡ ✐♥ t❡rs❡❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ s✉♣♣❧② ❝✉r✈ ❡s✳
❚❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❡①❤✐❜✐ts✱ ✉♥❞❡r ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✱ t❤❡ st ②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts ❢♦✉♥❞ ✐♥ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r✲
❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❚❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts ❛r❡ ♥♦t r♦❜✉st t♦ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ s✐③❡✿ ❛ ❣r❡❛t ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ ts
❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡ t❤❡ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ❢❡❛t✉r❡✳ ❆s ✐t ✇ ❛s t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s❧②
♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ ❙❛♥ t❛ ❋ ❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r✱ t❤❡ ●❊◆❖ ❆ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠❛❦ ❡s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✭❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡r
♣r✐❝❡s ❝♦♠♣✉t❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❤✐st♦r✐❝❛❧ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ②✮ t❤❛t ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡ t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞
r❡s✉❧ts✳
❚❤❡ ❜✉✐❧❞❡rs ♦❢ t❤❡ ●❊◆❖ ❆ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♠❛❞❡ ✐♠♣r♦ ✈ ❡♠❡♥ ts t♦ t❤❡✐r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r✱
✐♥ t ✇ ♦ ♥❡✇ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥s ●❆❙▼✲✷ ❛♥❞ ●❆❙▼✲✸✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ❧❛st ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥✱ ❛✉t❤♦rs ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐❣❛t❡
t❤❡ r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ str❡♥❣t❤ ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❛❣❡♥ t str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✭❜❛s❡❞ ♦r ♥♦t ♦♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❡❝♦✲
♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮✳ ❚❤❡② ❞r❛ ✇ ❛♥ ✐♥ t❡r❡st✐♥❣ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥✱ t❤❛t ❛ str❛t❡❣②✬s s✉❝❝❡ss
❞❡♣ ❡♥❞s✱ ♦♥ r❡❛s♦♥❛❜❧❡ t✐♠❡ s❝❛❧❡s✱ ♦♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✳
ș♥ ✭ ❇r♦ ❝ ❦ ❛♥❞ ❍♦♠♠❡s ✱ ✶✾✾✽ ✮ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ ❛ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❆ ❞❛♣t✐✈ ❡
❇❡❧✐❡❢ ❙②st❡♠✳ ❚❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✉s❡s ❛ r✐s❦ ❢r❡❡ ❛ss❡t ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❝♦♥st❛♥ t r❡t✉r♥ ❛♥❞ ❛ r✐s❦②
❛ss❡t t❤❛t ♣❛ ②s ❛ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞ ✇✐t❤ ș ș❉ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳ ❙✐♠✐❧❛r t♦ t❤❡ ❙❛♥ t❛ ❋ ❡ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ❛❣❡♥ ts
✐♥ t❤✐s ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❛r❡ ❤♦♠♦❣❡♥♦✉s ✐♥ t❤❡✐r ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥❛❧ ✈ ❛r✐❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡② ❛❧❧ tr② t♦ ♠❛①✲
✐♠✐③❡ ❛ ♠ ② ♦♣✐❝ ♠❡❛♥✲✈ ❛r✐❛♥❝❡ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✳ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❢r♦♠ ♦t❤❡r ♠♦ ❞❡❧s✱ t❤❡s❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts
❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t
❞❡♣ ❡♥❞ ♥♦t ♦♥❧② ♦♥ t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡② ♣ ❡r❝❡✐✈ ❡ ❜✉t ❛❧s♦ ♦♥ t❤❡✐r ♦ ✇♥
♣❛st ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡rr♦rs ✭❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ ♣ ❡r❝❡✐✈ ❡❞ ❝♦rr❡❝t ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
r❡❛❧✐③❛t✐♦♥✮✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ❢r❛♠❡✇ ♦r❦ ♦❢ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s✱ ❛❣❡♥ ts ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ✈✐❡✇ ❡❞ ❛s ❜ ❡❧♦♥❣✐♥❣ t♦ ❞✐❢✲
❢❡r❡♥ t t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✭❡✳❣✳ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧✐sts✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ t❤❛t ♣r✐❝❡s
r❡t✉r♥ t♦ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧s✱ ♦r tr❡♥❞✲❝ ❤❛s❡rs t❤❛t ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡s t❤❛♥ t♦ tr❡♥❞✮✳ ❚❤❡
❛❞❛♣t✐✈ ❡ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ t r❡s✐❞❡s ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t t♦ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ t♦ s✇✐t❝ ❤ ❜ ❡✲
t ✇ ❡❡♥ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✭❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ t♦ ♥♦♥✲❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧✮ ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡
❤✐s ✇ ❡❛❧t❤✳ ❚❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ s♦♠❡ ❝❧✉❡s t♦ ❤♦ ✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❛tt❛✐♥❡❞✳
ș♥ ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❝❛s❡ ♦❢ ❤♦♠♦❣❡♥♦✉s ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s t❤❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐s ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t✳
❲❤❡♥ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s ❛r❡ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s ❞❡♣❛rt✉r❡s ❢r♦♠ ❝♦rr❡❝t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥ t
❛♥❞ ✐t ✐s ♥♦t ♦❜ ✈✐♦✉s t❤❛t s✉❝ ❤ ❞❡♣❛rt✉r❡s ❝❛♥ ❞✐s❛♣♣ ❡❛r ✐♥ ❛ r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥ t ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✱ ♦r ❛s
t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ✐t✿ t❡①t✐t✧t❤❡ ❛♥s✇ ❡r t♦ t❤✐s q✉❡st✐♦♥ s❡❡♠s t♦ ❜ ❡ ♥♦t ❛s ♦❜ ✈✐♦✉s
❛s ♦♥❡ ♠✐❣❤ t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❣✉❡ss❡❞✧✳ șt ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❛r❣✉❡❞ t❤❛t s✐♥❝❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐s ♥♦t ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡
✭❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❛❣❡♥ ts ❝❛♥♥♦t ❜ ♦rr♦ ✇ ♠♦♥❡② ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧ st♦ ❝ ❦s s❤♦rt✮ t❤❛t ❛r❜✐tr❛❣❡ ❛r❡
❧✐♠✐t❡❞✳ ❚❤✐s ❛r❣✉♠❡♥ t ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ♠❛❞❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❢❛ ✈ ♦r ♦❢ ❛♥ ② tr❛❞✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣② ✳ ș❢ ❛ ❣r♦✉♣
t❤❛t ❤♦❧❞s ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢ ❛❜ ♦✉t ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ❜ ♦rr♦ ✇ ❛♥❞ tr❛❞❡ t♦ ♠♦ ✈ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡s
t♦ ✇ ❛r❞s t❤❡✐r ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢ t❤❛♥ t❤❡✐r str❛t❡❣② ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ♣ ♦ ✇ ❡r❢✉❧ ✭❛t ❧❡❛st ✇❤✐❧❡ t❤❡✐r s✉♣♣❧②
♦❢ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ❡♥❞✉r❡s✮✳ ❙✉❝ ❤ ❛ str❛t❡❣② ✇✐❧❧ s✉r✈✐✈ ❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛♥❞ ♥♦t ♥❡❝❡ss❛r✐❧②
t❤❡ str❛t❡❣② t❤❛t ✐s ✧❝♦rr❡❝t✧✳
❆♥♦t❤❡r ✐♥ t❡r❡st✐♥❣ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❤❛s ❜ ❡❡♥ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡❞ ❜ ② ✐♥ ✭ ▼❛t❛ss✐♥✐
❛♥❞ ❋ r❛♥❝✐ ✱ ✷✵✵✶ ✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t t❤❛t ❤❛s ♥♦
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳ ❚ r❛❞✐♥❣ ✐s ❞♦♥❡ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉♦✉s❧② t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❛ ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡r ❜ ♦ ♦❦
✇❤❡r❡ t❤❡ ❜ ❡st ❜✐❞ ✐s ❡①❡❝✉t❡❞ ❛❣❛✐♥st t❤❡ ❜ ❡st ❛s❦ ✭✐❢ ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡✮✳ ❆❣❡♥ ts ❡❛❝ ❤ ❤❛ ✈ ❡

✹✳✸✳ ❚ ♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✻✺
❢❡✇ r❛♥❞♦♠❧② ❞r❛ ✇♥ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✿ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ❣❛✐♥ ❛♥❞ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ❛❝❝❡♣t❡❞
❧♦ss ❜ ❡❢♦r❡ s❡❧❧✐♥❣ t❤❡✐r ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❛ t✐♠❡ t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞ t❤❛t ♣r♦♠♣ts ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t t♦
❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ❤✐s ✐❞❡❛ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ✭✇ ❛✐t t♦ ❧♦♥❣ ❢♦r ❛♥ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ❣❛✐♥ t♦ r❡❛❧✐③❡
❛♥❞ ✐t ✐s ♥♦t ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡✮✳ ❲❤❡♥ s❡♥❞✐♥❣ ❛♥ ♦r❞❡r✱ tr❛❞❡rs ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜❛s❡❞
♦♥ t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ♦❢ t❤r❡❡ s♦✉r❝❡s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✿ ♣ ❡❡r ♣r✐❝❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s✱ ✐♥ t❡r♥❛❧
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❛ss✉r❡s t❤❛t ❛ ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡ ✐s ♠❛✐♥ t❛✐♥❡❞ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❜✐❞s ❛♥❞ ❛s❦s✮
❛♥❞ ❤✐st♦r✐❝❛❧ tr❡♥❞s ❡①tr❛♣ ♦❧❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤✐s ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✐s ❛❜❧❡ t♦ r❡♣r♦ ❞✉❝❡ ❢❛t t❛✐❧s ❛♥❞
✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣✳ ❲❤✐❧st t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ s❡❡♠s r❡❛❧✐st✐❝✱ ❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧② ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ✉s❛❣❡
♦❢ st♦♣ ❛♥❞ ❣❛✐♥ ❧✐♠✐ts✱ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts ❛r❡ ♥♦t r♦❜✉st ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝❡rt❛✐♥
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❝❛♥ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ t❤❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ t❤❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s✳
ș♥ ✭ ▲❡✈② ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✵ ✮ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ t❤❡②
❝❛❧❧ ✬♠✐❝r♦s❝♦♣✐❝ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥✬ ♦❢ ❛ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♠♦ ❞❡❧ t❤❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r
♦❢ t ✇ ♦ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✿ ✬r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✬ ✭❘ș✮ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❝♦♥ ✈ ❡r❣❡s t♦
t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ❛♥❞ ✬❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✬ ✭❊▼❘✮ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡
❛❧r❡❛❞② r❡✢❡❝ts ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❆❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ r✐s❦ ❛ ✈ ❡rs❡ ❛♥❞
✇ ❛♥ t t♦ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ✇ ❡❛❧t❤✳ ❚ ♦ s✐♠♣❧✐❢② t❤✐♥❣s✱ t❤❡
❛✉t❤♦rs ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t ❛❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇ ❛ ♣ ♦ ✇ ❡r ✉t✐❧✐t ② ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠✿
U(W) =W1−α
1−α✭✹✳✸✮
✇❤❡r❡α ✐s t❤❡ r✐s❦ ❛ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r✱ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❢♦r ❛❧❧ ❛❣❡♥ ts✳ ❆❧❧ ❛❣❡♥ ts ♠❛①✐✲
♠✐③❡ t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤✐s ✉t✐❧✐t ② ❜ ② ✜♥❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦rt✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ t♦ ❦ ❡❡♣ ✐♥
r✐s❦✲❢r❡❡ ❝♦♥st❛♥ t r❡t✉r♥ ❛ss❡t ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t ✭✇❤✐❝ ❤ ♣❛ ②s ❛ r❛♥❞♦♠ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞
✇✐t❤ ❛ ❦♥♦ ✇♥ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ❞❡♥s✐t ② ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✮✳ ❆❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤✐s ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ❞✐s✲
tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ❜✉t t❤❡② ❢♦r♠ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r✐❝❡✳ ❙✐♥❝❡
❘ș ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ❞✐✈ ❡r❣❡ ❢r♦♠ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧s ✭❜✉t ❛❧s♦ t❤❛t t❤❡s❡ ♣r✐❝❡s
✇✐❧❧ q✉✐❝ ❦❧② ❝♦♥ ✈ ❡r❣❡ ❜❛❝ ❦ t♦ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧s✮ t❤❡② ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡
●♦r❞♦♥ ❣r♦ ✇t❤ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✿
Et(Pt+1) =Ft+1=Et+1(Dt+2)
rf−g✭✹✳✹✮
❋ r♦♠ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ✹✳✹ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❦♥♦ ✇♥ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥✱ ❘ș ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝♦♠♣✉t❡
t❤❡✐r ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✳ ❇② ❞❡r✐✈✐♥❣ t❤✐s ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡
❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s ❢♦r ❡❛❝ ❤ ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✳ ș♥ ❝♦♥ tr❛st✱ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤✐♥❦ ❛ss❡ts ❛r❡
❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ♣r✐❝❡❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ♥♦ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t✐❡s t♦ ✜♥❞ ✬❜ ❛r ❣❛✐♥ ❛ss❡ts✬ ✳ ❚❤ ✉s t❤❡s❡
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❧♦ ♦❦ ♦♥❧② t♦ ♠❛✐♥ t❛✐♥ t❤❡ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ r✐s❦②
❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♥♦♥✲r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t✳ ❚ ♦ ❞♦ t❤✐s✱ t❤❡② ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❡ ❡①✲❛♥ t❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢
r❡t✉r♥s✳ ❙✐♥❝❡ t❤✐s ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✐s ✉♥❦♥♦ ✇♥ t❤❡② ❝♦♥str✉❝t ✐t ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛t✐♦♥s
♦❢ ♣❛st r❡t✉r♥s ✭❡①✲♣ ♦st ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥✮✱ t❤ ✉s s✉♣♣ ♦s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss t❤❛t ❝r❡❛t❡❞ t❤❡
r❡t✉r♥s ✐s st❛❜❧❡✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❞✐✛❡r ✐♥ t❤❡ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ♣❛st r❡t✉r♥s t❤❡②
✉s❡ t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❢✉t✉r❡ r❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞
r❡t✉r♥ ✭❜✉t t❤✐s ✬r❡t✉r♥ ♠❡♠♦r②✬ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❞♦ ❡s♥✬t ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ✭q✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈ ❡❧②✮ t❤❡

✻✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
r❡s✉❧ts✮✳ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥✱ ❛s ❘ș ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦✱ ❛❧s♦ s♣ ❡❝✐❢② ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s ❢♦r ❡❛❝ ❤
♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✳
/summationdisplay
agentDemand agent(Pt+1) =N ✭✹✳✺✮
❚❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❢♦✉♥❞ s✉❝ ❤ t❤❛t t❤❡ s✉♠ ♦❢ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts✬ ❞❡♠❛♥❞s ❡q✉❛❧s
❛ ❝♦♥st❛♥ t s✉♣♣❧② ♦❢ st♦ ❝ ❦s ✭◆✮✱ ❜ ② s♦❧✈✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡✳ ❲✐t❤ t❤✐s✱ r❛t❤❡r
s✐♠♣❧❡✱ ✬♠✐❝r♦s❝♦♣✐❝✬ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡t t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♠❛♥❛❣❡ t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡
♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s t❤❛t r❡♣❧✐❝❛t❡ ❛❧❧ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✬st ②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts✬ ♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ ✐♥ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✳ ș♥ ❛
♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ♦♥❧② r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ st❛❜❧❡ ❛r♦✉♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ❛♥❞
♥♦ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❛r❡ ♣r❡s❡♥ t✳ ș♥ ❛ ♠♦r❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ t❤❛t ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡s ♦♥❧②
✺✪ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♠❡♠♦r② ♦❢ ♠❂✶✵ ♣❛st r❡t✉r♥s✱ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s
s❤♦ ✇s ❛ ❝②❝❧✐❝ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r t❤❛t ✐s s✐♠✐❧❛r ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐t❤ ❜ ♦ ♦♠s ❛♥❞ ❝r❛s❤❡s✳
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✹✳✹✿ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ❢r♦♠ ✭ ▲❡✈② ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✵ ✮✱ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✼ ♣❛❣❡ ✶✻✷✱ s❤♦ ✇✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
❣❡♥❡r❛t❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐t❤ ✾✺✪ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ ✺✪ ✧❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡rs✧✳
❚❤❡s❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜ ♦ ♦♠✲❝r❛s❤ ❝②❝❧❡s ❛♣♣ ❡❛r ✐♥ ❛ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❛❜❧❡ ♠❛♥♥❡r✿
✶✳ ❋✐rst ❛ s❡r✐❡s ♦❢ ❤✐❣❤ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s ♦ ❝❝✉rs
✷✳ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✉♣ ❞❛t❡ t❤❡✐r ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡①✲❛♥ t❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s
✉s✐♥❣ t❤✐s ♥❡✇ ❤✐❣❤ r❡t✉r♥s
✸✳ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡✐r ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ s✐③❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♥❡✇

✹✳✸✳ ❚ ♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✻✼
❤✐❣❤ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❞r✐✈ ❡s t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❤✐❣❤ ✭❧✐❦ ❡ ❛ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ ❢❡❡❞❜❛❝ ❦
❧♦ ♦♣✮✳
✹✳ ❘❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤✐s ♥♦♥✲❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ r❡❞✉❝❡
t❤❡✐r s❤❛r❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t
✺✳ ❆❢t❡r ❛ ❢❡✇ r♦✉♥❞s ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡s✱ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✉s✉❛❧❧② ❤♦❧❞ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ r✐s❦②
❛ss❡ts✳ ❨ ❡t t❤❡ ❤✐❣❤ r❡t✉r♥s r❡❛❧✐③❡❞ ❛t t❤❡ st❛rt✐♥❣ ♣ ♦✐♥ ts ❛✮ ❛♥❞ ❜✮ ❛r❡ ♥♦t
❜ ❡✐♥❣ r❡❛❧✐③❡❞ ❛♥ ②♠♦r❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs st❛rt t♦ r❡✈✐s❡ t❤❡✐r ❡①✲❛♥ t❡
❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s✳
✻✳ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs st❛rt r❡❞✉❝✐♥❣ t❤❡✐r ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ s❤❛r❡s ✐♥ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡
✐ts r❡t✉r♥s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❤✐❣❤ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ ❛♥ ②♠♦r❡✳ ❚❤❡s❡ r❡❜❛❧❛♥❝✐♥❣ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡
t❤❡ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❢❛❧❧ ✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡s✳
✼✳ ❆s ♣r✐❝❡s ❞❡s❝❡♥❞ t♦ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ ❘ș ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs st❛rt r❡❛❧❧♦ ❝❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡
r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t t♦ t❤❡✐r ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ✭s✐♥❝❡ ✐t ✐s ♥♦t ♦ ✈ ❡r♣r✐❝❡❞ ❛♥ ②♠♦r❡✮✳ ❆❢t❡r✇ ❛r❞s✱
t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ s❡tt❧❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❝②❝❧❡ ❝❛♥ r❡♣ ❡❛t ✐ts❡❧❢ ❢r♦♠ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ❛✮✳ ❉✉r✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❝r❛s❤
❛♥❞ ❛ ❢❡✇ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ❛❢t❡r✇ ❛r❞s✱ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦♥✬t t♦✉❝ ❤ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t s✐♥❝❡
t❤❡✐r ❡①✲❛♥ t❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ r❡t✉r♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✐s ❤✐❣❤❧② ♣ ❡ss✐♠✐st✐❝ ❞✉❡ t♦
t❤❡ r❡❝❡♥ t ♣r✐❝❡ ❝r❛s❤✳
❚❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❜ ♦ ♦♠✲❝r❛s❤ ❝②❝❧❡s ❝❛♥ ♦ ❝❝✉r ✐♥ t❤❡ ♦♣♣ ♦s✐t❡ ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥✳ ❲❤❡♥ ✈ ❡r② ❧♦ ✇
❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s ❛r❡ r❡❛❧✐③❡❞ t❤❡ ❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t ❧♦ ✇ ❡r r❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞ r❡❞✉❝❡ t❤❡✐r
s❤❛r❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t t❤ ✉s ❞r✐✈✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡s ❞♦ ✇♥✳ ❚❤❡ r✐s❡ ✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡s ✇✐❧❧ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇ ✇❤❡♥
♥❡✇ ❤✐❣❤❡r r❡t✉r♥s ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇✳
❚❤✐s ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❝r✐t✐❝✐③❡❞ ❢♦r s❤♦ ✇✐♥❣ ❛ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❛❜❧❡ ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s t❤❛t ❝❛♥✱
✐♥ r❡❛❧✐t ② ✱ ❜ ❡ ❛r❜✐tr❛❣❡❞ ❛ ✇ ❛ ② ✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♠❛❦ ❡ t❡sts ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♣ ♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❊▼❘
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭✺✪ ♦❢ t❤❡ t♦t❛❧✮ ✇✐t❤ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s ♠❡♠♦r② s♣❛♥s ✭✇✐t❤ ❛ ♠❡❛♥ ♦❢ ✹✵ ♣❛st
r❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞ ❛ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✷✵✮✳ ❚❤❡ r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ♠✐① ❝r❡❛t❡s s❡r✐❡s ♦❢
♣r✐❝❡s ✇✐t❤ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❛♥❞ ❝r❛s❤❡s ❜✉t ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❢r❡q✉❡♥❝② ✱ ✐♥ t❡♥s✐t ② ❛♥❞ ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t
❛r❡ ♥♦t ✭❡❛s✐❧②✮ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❛❜❧❡✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡ ✐t ✐s ❞✐✣❝✉❧t t♦ ❝♦♥❝❡✐✈ ❡ ❛ str❛t❡❣② t❤❛t
❝♦✉❧❞ ❞❡t❡❝t ❛♥❞ ❛r❜✐tr❛❣❡ t❤✐s ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ❛❧s♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐❣❛t❡ t❤❡ r❛t✐♦ ♦❢
✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡② s❤♦ ✇s t❤❛t
❊▼❘ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs s✉r✈✐✈ ❡ ✭❛♥❞ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ♣r♦s♣ ❡r✮ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳
ș♥ ✭ ❋ ❛r♠❡r ❛♥❞ ❏♦s❤✐ ✱ ✷✵✵✵ ✮ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ ❛ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
✇❤❡r❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ ✉♥✐ts t❤❛t ♣r♦ ❝❡ss ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ s❤♦ ❝ ❦s ❛♥❞ ❞✐✛✉s❡
t❤❡s❡ ✐♥♣✉ts ✐♥ t♦ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❞✐st♦rt ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ♠♦ ✈ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛ ✇ ❛ ②
❢r♦♠ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s✳ ❚❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡❞ ❜ ② ❋ ❛r♠❡r ❛♥❞ ❏♦s❤✐ ✉s❡s ❛
♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠❛❦ ❡r t❤❛t ❝♦♠♣✉t❡s t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❜ ② tr②✐♥❣ t♦ ❧♦ ✇ ❡r t❤❡ ❡①❝❡ss ♦❢
♦r❞❡rs ✭t♦ ♦ ♠❛♥ ② ❜✉②✴s❡❧❧ ♦r❞❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❣♦ ❡s ✉♣✴❞♦ ✇♥✮✳ ❚❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥ ts✱
✇❤✐❝ ❤ ♣ ♦♣✉❧❛t❡ t❤✐s ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ ❛r❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡❞ ✐♥ t♦ t ✇ ♦ t ②♣ ❡s✿
✶✳ ❚ r❡♥❞ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇ ❡rs ✭♦r ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts✮✿ t❤❡② ❜❛s❡ t❤❡✐r ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ ✐❞❡❛ t❤❛t t❤❡

✻✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ♠♦✈❡s ✐♥ tr❡♥❞s✳ ❚❤❡ ♦r❞❡rs ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ❛❣❡♥ts ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t②
❛♥❞ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s✳
✷✳ ❱ ❛❧✉❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✿ ❚❤❡② ❜❡❧✐❡✈❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ str❛② ❛✇❛② ❢r♦♠ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s
❛♥❞ t❤❡② tr② t♦ ♣r♦✜t ♦✛ t❤❡s❡ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣✳ ❚❤❡② ❛✐♠ t♦ ❜✉② ✉♥❞❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞
❛♥❞ s❡❧❧ ♦✈❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❱ ❛❧✉❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✉s❡ st❛t❡✲❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t tr✐❣❣❡rs ✭♠❛①✲
✐♠✉♠✴♠✐♥✐♠✉♠ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡✐r ♣❡r❝❡✐✈❡❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✮ ❢♦r
❡♥t❡r✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❡①✐t✐♥❣ ♣♦s✐t✐♦♥s✳
❚❤✐s ♠♦❞❡❧ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡s ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ tr❡♥❞ ❢♦❧❧♦✇❡rs✬ r❡❛❝t✐♦♥
t♦✇❛r❞s ♣❡r❝❡✐✈❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦r r❡t✉r♥ tr❡♥❞s✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♣♦✐♥t ♦✉t t❤❛t ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s
♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ tr❡♥❞ ❢♦❧❧♦✇❡rs✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❞✐✛❡r ✐♥ t❤❡ ❧❡♥❣t❤ ♦❢ tr❡♥❞s t❤❡② ❝❛♥ ♣❡r❝❡✐✈❡✱
❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ✐♥t❡r❡st✐♥❣ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s t❤❛t ❧❡❛❞ t♦ t❤❡ st②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs
❢♦❝✉s ♦♥ t❤❡ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ r❡s♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ❛♥❞ ♦❢t❡♥ tr② t♦ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡
❛♥❛❧②t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧s t❤❛t r❡❞✉❝❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r t♦ ❛ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧✳ ❚❤❡②
❝♦♥❝❧✉❞❡ s❛②✐♥❣ t❤❛t ✇❤❡♥ ♥♦♥✲❧✐♥❡❛r✐t② ❛♣♣❡❛rs ✐♥ t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✬ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r t❤❛♥ ❛
✧r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧✧ ❞♦❡s♥✬t ❡①✐st ♦r ❝❛♥ ♣r♦❞✉❝❡ ❛ ❞✐st♦rt❡❞ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s✳ ❇❡✲
❝❛✉s❡ ♠❛r❦❡t r❡t✉r♥s ❤❛✈❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥s s✉❝❤ ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛ ❝❛♥♥♦t ❜❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡❞ ❜②
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❞r✐✈❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛❧♦♥❡✱ ❤❡♥❝❡ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛r❡ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t❡❞ ❜② ♦t❤❡r t②♣❡s
♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭✇❤✐❝❤ s✉r✈✐✈❡✮✳ ❖♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞r❛✇❜❛❝❦s ♦❢ t❤✐s ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐s✱ ❛s ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡❞ ❜②
t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs✱ t❤❡ ❢❛❝t t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♠❛❦❡r ❤❛s ✐♥✜♥✐t❡ ✐♥✈❡♥t♦r② ❛♥❞ ✐s ♥♦t r✐s❦
❛✈❡rs❡✳
❆❢t❡r r❡✈✐❡✇✐♥❣ ❛ ❢❡✇ ♥♦t❛❜❧❡ ♠✉❧t✐✲❛❣❡♥t s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs ✇❡ ❣♦ t❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥
♠❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❞❡s✐❣♥ ✐ss✉❡s ❛ r❡s❡❛r❝❤❡r ✐s ❢❛❝❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ✇❤❡♥ ✇♦r❦✐♥❣ ✇✐t❤ s✐♠✲
✉❧❛t♦rs✳ ❲ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡ t❤❡ ❞❡t❛✐❧s ❛♥❞ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❡❛❝❤ ♥❡❝❡ss❛r② ♣❛rts ♦❢ ❛ s✐♠✉❧❛✲
t♦r✳ ❊❛❝❤ ❞❡s✐❣♥❡❞ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t ✐s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐t ✐♠♣♦s❡s ❡①♣❧✐❝✐t ❛♥❞ ✐♠♣❧✐❝✐t
s✐♠♣❧✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛❜♦✉t t❤❡ st✉❞✐❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡❛❧✐t② ✳
✹✳✸✳✷ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
❖♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✜rst ❝❤♦✐❝❡s t♦ ❜❡ ♠❛❞❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞❡s✐❣♥ ♦❢ ❛ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ✐s ✐♥ t❤❡ t②♣❡ ♦❢
s✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✿ ❛ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡t✱ ❜♦♥❞s ♠❛r❦❡t✱ st♦❝❦ ♦r ❜♦♥❞ ❞❡r✐✈ ❛t✐✈❡s
♠❛r❦❡t ♦r ❛♥♦t❤❡r t②♣❡ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ș♥ r❡❛❧ ❧✐❢❡✱ t❤❡s❡ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛r❡ ♥♦t ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t
❛♥❞ t❤❡② ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ❡❛❝❤ ♦t❤❡r✳ ș❢ ✇❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t❡ ♦♥❧② ♦♥❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇❡ ❛r❡✱ ✐♥ ❛ ✇❛② ✱
❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡s ♦❢ ♦t❤❡r ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ▼♦st r❡s❡❛r❝❤❡rs ❞❡❢❡♥❞ t❤❡♠s❡❧✈❡s
✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❛r❣✉♠❡♥t t❤❛t t❤❡ ❥♦✐♥t ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ♦❢ ❛ ❜♦♥❞ ❛♥❞ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡t ❝❛❧❧s ❢♦r ❛
t♦♦ ❝♦♠♣❧✐❝❛t❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❡①tr❡♠❡❧② ❞✐✣❝✉❧t t♦ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ♠♦❞❡❧✳ ❈♦♥s❡q✉❡♥t❧② ✱ ♠♦st
st✉❞✐❡s ❢♦❝✉s ♦♥ ♦♥❧② ♦♥❡ t②♣❡ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡t ✭✉s✉❛❧❧② st♦❝❦s✮ ❛♥❞ ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t ♦t❤❡r
♠❛r❦❡ts ❤❛✈❡ ♥♦ ♥♦t✐❝❡❛❜❧❡ ❡✛❡❝ts✳
❲ ❡ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ❢♦r t❤❡ ❧❛❝❦ ♦❢ ❛ ❜♦♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡t t❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❝❡ss✳
ș♠♣❧✐❝✐t❧② ✱ ✇❡ s✉♣♣♦s❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝♦♥❝❡r♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ❛ss❡t✬s ❡❝♦✲
♥♦♠✐❝ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ r✐s❦ ✐s ♣❡r❢❡❝t ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ✲ ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥②✬s ❛ss❡t ✈ ❛❧✉❡
✐s ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② r❡✢❡❝t❡❞ ✐♥ t❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❙✐♥❝❡ ♠♦st ❧✐st❡❞ ❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡s ♦✇♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧

✹✳✸✳ ❚ ♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✻✾
✐♥str✉♠❡♥ ts ✭❛♠♦♥❣ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✇ ❡ ♦❢t❡♥ ✜♥❞ ❜ ♦♥❞s ❛♥❞ t❤❡✐r ❞❡r✐✈ ❛t✐✈ ❡s✮ ✇ ❡ ❛r❡ ❛❝t✉✲
❛❧❧② ❛ss✉♠✐♥❣ t❤❛t ❜ ♦♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛r❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ❛♥❞ t❤❛t t❤❡② ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ♣r✐❝❡ t❤❡s❡
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥str✉♠❡♥ ts✳ ❙✐♠✐❧❛r❧② ✱ ✇ ❡ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ t♦ ✐❣♥♦r❡ t❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡s ♦❢ st♦ ❝ ❦ ❞❡r✐✈ ❛✲
t✐✈ ❡s ♦♥ ♦✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ st♦ ❝ ❦s✳ ❖♥❡ s❤♦✉❧❞ ♠❛❦ ❡ t❤❡ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
✇✐t❤ ❛ ✇ ❛r❡♥❡ss ♦❢ t❤❡ s✐♠♣❧✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ r❡❛❧ ✇ ♦r❧❞ ❛♥❞ s❤♦✉❧❞ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ ❛ ❝❧❡❛r
st❛t❡♠❡♥ t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❧✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ❤✐s ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s✳
✹✳✸✳✸ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ t✐♠❡
❚❤❡ ♣ ❡r❝❡✐✈ ❡❞ ♦r❞❡r ♦❢ ❛ s②st❡♠ ❞❡♣ ❡♥❞s ♦♥ ❤♦ ✇ ❛❜str❛❝t ✐ts ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✐s✳ ▲♦ ♦❦✐♥❣
❛t ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ♦♥ ❛ ② ❡❛r❧② ❜❛s✐s ✇ ❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧❧② ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❣r♦ ✇t❤ ❛♥❞ s♠❛❧❧
✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ✳ ▲♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ❛t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ♦♥ ❛ ♠♦♥ t❤❧② ❜❛s✐s ✇ ❡ s❡❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝
✲ ❛t ❧❡❛st ❤✐❣❤❡r ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❧❡✈ ❡❧s✳ ●♦✐♥❣ ❢✉rt❤❡r ❛♥❞ ❧♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ❛t ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦♥ ❛ ❞❛✐❧②
❜❛s✐s ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ✈ ❡r② ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧❡ r❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞ ❢❛st ❝ ❤❛♥❣✐♥❣ tr❡♥❞s✳
❚❤❡ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ t✐♠❡ ✐s ❝r✉❝✐❛❧ ❢♦r ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r✬s ❞❡s✐❣♥ s✐♠♣❧② ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ❛♥❞ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ ts ♦♥ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t t✐♠❡ s❝❛❧❡s✳
❲ ❡ r❛r❡❧② s❡❡ t❡❝ ❤♥✐❝❛❧ tr❛❞❡rs ♦♥ ❛ t✐♠❡ s❝❛❧❡ ❧❛r❣❡r t❤❛♥ t❤❛t ♦❢ ❛ ✇ ❡❡❦✳ ▲✐❦ ❡✇✐s❡ ✇ ❡
❞♦♥✬t ♦❢t❡♥ ❡♥❝♦✉♥ t❡r ✧❜✉② ❛♥❞ ❤♦❧❞ tr❛❞❡rs✧ ♦♥ ❛♥ ✐♥ tr❛✲❞❛ ② t✐♠❡ s❝❛❧❡✳ ❚❤❡ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡
♦❢ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ t✐♠❡ ✇✐❧❧ ♦❢t❡♥ ✐♠♣ ♦s❡ ❝♦♥str❛✐♥ ts ♦♥ t❤❡ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
✭s♦♠❡ ✐♥ tr❛✲❞❛ ② ❜ ♦♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❞♦♥✬t ❡✈ ❡♥ ❡①✐st✮✱ ❛❣❡♥ t str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✭❡♥ t❡r✴❡①✐t t✐♠✐♥❣✮✱
❡①♦❣❡♥♦✉s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭❞❛✐❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❤❛s ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s t❤❛♥ ✇ ❡❡❦❧②
♦r ♠♦♥ t❤❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮✱ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ✇ ❡
❝❛♥ r❡♣r♦ ❞✉❝❡✳ ❚❤✐s ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ t✐♠❡ ✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❛♥❞ ❤❛s t♦ ❜ ❡ ✇ ❡❧❧ ❞❡❢❡♥❞❡❞✳
✹✳✸✳✹ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
Pr✐❝❡s ✭s❤♦✉❧❞ ✐❞❡❛❧✐st✐❝❛❧❧②✮ r❡✢❡❝t ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s t❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡ ♣r♦✲
❝❡ss ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t♦ ♣r✐❝❡✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✢♦ ✇ ✐s ❛ ❝r✉❝✐❛❧
❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ t ❢♦r ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❚❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ t ✇ ♦ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧✲
❛❜❧❡ t♦ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ ts✿ ❡①♦❣❡♥♦✉s ❛♥❞ ❡♥❞♦❣❡♥♦✉s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❊♥❞♦❣❡♥♦✉s
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ✈ ♦❧✈ ❡s ❞❛t❛ ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ str✉❝t✉r❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐ts❡❧❢ ✭♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ ts✱ s❡✲
❝✉r✐t✐❡s str✉❝t✉r❡✱ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s✱ ❡t❝✳✮ ❛♥❞ ✐t ✐s ✉s✉❛❧❧② ✇ ❡❧❧ ❦♥♦ ✇♥ ❜ ② t❤❡
♠❛ ❥♦r✐t ② ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❊①♦❣❡♥♦✉s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ ts t❤❡ ❞❛t❛ ❝♦♥❝❡r♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ s❡✲
❝✉r✐t✐❡s✬ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❙✉❝ ❤ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❤❛s ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❢♦r♠❛ts ❛♥❞
✉s✉❛❧❧② r❡✢❡❝ts ❛ ❞✐st✐❧❧❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ s❤♦ ✇✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❛
❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ✭tr❛♥s❧❛t❡❞ ✐♥ ❛♥ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤ ✢♦ ✇s ❛♥❞ r❡t✉r♥ r❛t❡s✮✳
▼♦st ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs r❡♣❧✐❝❛t❡ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❚❤❡ ❡①♦❣❡♥♦✉s ✐♥✲
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r t❤❡s❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✉s✉❛❧❧② ❝♦♥s✐sts ✐♥ ♣r♦ ①✐❡s ❢♦r t❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
✭❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s✱ ♣r✐❝❡✴❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s✱ ❡t❝✮✳ ❲ ❡ ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ t❤❛t ❛ s❡❝♦♥❞ s♦✉r❝❡ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❛s ❛ ♣r♦ ①② ❢♦r t❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ r✐s❦ ✐s ❡ss❡♥ t✐❛❧ ❢♦r ❛ ♣❛rs✐♠♦♥✐♦✉s r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛
r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❆ss❡ss✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ r✐s❦ ♦❢ ❛ st♦ ❝ ❦ ✭t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ r✐s❦s
♦❢ ❛ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②✮ ✐s ❛t ❧❡❛st ❛s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❛s ❛ss❡ss✐♥❣ ✐ts ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❋ ✉t✉r❡

✼✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
❝❛s❤ ✢♦ ✇s ❛r❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❞❛t❛ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ❛♥❞ ✐ts ❜✉s✐♥❡ss
❡♥ ✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥ t✳ ❚❤✐s ♠❡❛♥s t❤❛t ❛ r✐s❦ ❢❛❝t♦r ✐s ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ❝♦♠♣✉t❡❞ ❛♥❞ ♥❡❝❡ss❛r② ❢♦r
❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②✬s st♦ ❝ ❦✳ ❚❤❡ ❡①♦❣❡♥♦✉s r✐s❦ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡
❛ ♣r♦ ①② ❢♦r ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t r✐s❦ ❢❛❝t♦rs ❧✐❦ ❡ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ② r✐s❦✱ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r✐s❦ ✭r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
❛ss❡ts t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ❤♦❧❞s✮ ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ❜✉s✐♥❡ss r✐s❦✳ ❯s✐♥❣ t ✇ ♦ ✢♦ ✇s ♦❢ ❡①♦❣❡♥♦✉s ✐♥✲
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ r✐s❦ r❡❧❛t❡❞✮ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡tt❡r ❛ss❡ss t❤❡ ❝♦♥✜❞❡♥❝❡ ✐♥ t❡r✈ ❛❧
❢♦r t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❛ s❡❝✉r✐t ② ❛♥❞ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t ✐t✳ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s ✐♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ❝❛♣❛❝✐t✐❡s
✭❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣❡ ❛♥❞ ❧❛❝ ❦ ♦❢ ❜✐❛s✮ ♣r♦ ❞✉❝❡s ♠♦r❡ ❛❝❝✉r❛t❡ ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ r✐s❦ ❡✈ ❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥s✳
❆ ❞❡❜❛t❡ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ♠❛❞❡ ❛❜ ♦✉t ✇❤❡t❤❡r ❛ ✬❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧✬ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❡①✐sts ♦r ♥♦t✳ ș♥
t❤✐s st✉❞② ✇ ❡ ✈✐❡✇ t❤❡ ✬❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✬ ♦❢ ❛ st♦ ❝ ❦ ❛s ❛ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝ ❝♦♥str✉❝t t❤❛t
❤❛s t❤❡ ❣♦❛❧ ♦❢ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞✐♥❣ ❛ s♦✉r❝❡ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳
✹✳✸✳✺ ❇✐❛s ✐♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss✐♥❣
ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t ✇ ♦ ❢♦r♠s✿ q✉❛♥ t✐t❛t✐✈ ❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ st❛t❡✲
♠❡♥ ts✮ ❛♥❞ q✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈ ❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭❧❡tt❡rs t♦ s❤❛r❡❤♦❧❞❡rs✱ ❛♥❛❧②st r❡♣ ♦rts✱ ❡❝♦✲
♥♦♠✐❝ ♥❡✇s✮✳ ◗✉❛♥ t✐t❛t✐✈ ❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❡❞ ❢❛✐r❧② ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡❧② ❜ ② t❤❡
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✳ ❲ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t♦ ❛❞❞r❡ss t❤❡ ✐ss✉❡ ♦❢ q✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈ ❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❝❛♥✱ ❛♥❞ ♦❢t❡♥
✇✐❧❧✱ ❜ ❡ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✇ ❛ ② ✳
❊❛❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥ t ❤❛s ❤✐s ♦ ✇♥ ♠❛♥♥❡r ❛♥❞ ❝❛♣❛❝✐t ② t♦ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳
❙♦♠❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✉s❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ✐ts ♦r✐❣✐♥❛❧ ❢♦r♠ ✇❤✐❧❡ ♦t❤❡rs ❜✐❛s t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
✐♥ ❛❧❧ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♠❛♥♥❡rs✳ ❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ❛❣❡♥ ts t❤❛t ❛r❡ ♦♣t✐♠✐sts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ t❡♥❞❡♥❝② t♦
✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡ ♠❛❣♥✐t✉❞❡ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭❧✐❦ ❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ♦r r✐s❦
❞❡❝r❡❛s❡✮ ❛♥❞ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡ ❜❛❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ș♥ ✈ ❡rs❡❧② ✱ ♣ ❡ss✐♠✐st ❛❣❡♥ ts ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡ ❣♦ ♦ ❞
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ❜❛❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❆ ♠♦r❡ ❝♦♠♣r❡❤❡♥s✐✈ ❡ r❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r
❜✐❛s❡s ✇ ❛s ♠❛❞❡ ✐♥ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✳
❲❤❡♥ ✇ ❡ t❛❧❦ ❛❜ ♦✉t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ✇ ❡ r❡❢❡r t♦ ✐♥ tr✐♥s✐❝ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ♦❢ ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♦rs ✭♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ ❤ ✉♠❛♥s✮ ❛♥❞ ♥♦t t♦ ✈ ♦❧✉♥ t❛r② ❛❝t✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡s✱ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞
s✉❝❝✐♥❝t❧② ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡✱ r❡❢❡r t♦ ✇ ❛ ②s t❤r♦✉❣❤ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛❧t❡r✱ ✐♥ ✈ ♦❧✉♥ t❛r✐❧② ✱ t❤❡ ✐♥✲
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡② ♣ ❡r❝❡✐✈ ❡✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❜✐❛s❡s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✬ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣
♣r♦ ❝❡ss✳ ❖♥❡ ❝❛♥ ❛r❣✉❡ t❤❛t ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ❝❛♥♥♦t ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ✐ts ❡♠♦t✐♦♥❛❧ ❜✐❛s❡s ② ❡t ❛♥
❛❣❡♥ t ❝❛♥ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧❧② ❛❧t❡r t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❤❡ ✉s❡s ❛s t❤❡ ✐♥♣✉t ❢♦r ❤✐s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t
str❛t❡❣② ✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ✇ ❡ s❛ ② t❤❛t t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✬s ❜✐❛s❡s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧❧② ✧✉♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞✧
❜ ② ♠❛❦✐♥❣ ❝♦rr❡❝t✐♦♥s t♦ t❤❡ ❡①♦❣❡♥♦✉s r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ș❢ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡s
t❤❛t ❤✐s ❡② ❡s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s♦♠❡ ❢♦r♠ ♦❢ r❡❢r❛❝t✐♦♥ ❞②s❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ✭❡✳❣✳ ♠ ② ♦♣✐❛✮ ❤❡ ❝❛♥ ✉s❡ ❡①✲
t❡r♥❛❧ ♠❡❛♥s ♦❢ ❝♦rr❡❝t✐♦♥s ✭❧✐❦ ❡ ❣❧❛ss❡s ♦r ❝♦♥ t❛❝t ❧❡♥s❡s✮✳ ❙✐♠✐❧❛r❧② ✱ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r
❦♥♦ ✇s t❤❛t t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❤❡ r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡s ✐s ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✭❜ ② ❤✐♠ ♦r ♦t❤❡rs✮ ❛♥❞ ❤❡ ❝❛♥ ❛♣♣❧②
❛ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss ❢♦r ❝♦rr❡❝t✐♥❣ t❤❡s❡ ❜✐❛s❡s ❜ ❡❢♦r❡ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❞❛t❛ ❢♦r t❤✐s ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦
❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s✳ ❆♥ ♦♣t✐♠✐st✐❝ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t❤❛t ❡①♣ ❡❝ts t❤❡ ❣r♦ ✇t❤ ♦❢ ❛ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ❢♦r ♥❡①t
② ❡❛r t♦ ❜ ❡ ✷✵✪ ❝❛♥ ❝♦rr❡❝t ❤✐s ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ✭♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ ❤❡ ❦♥♦ ✇s ❤❡ ✐s ❛♥ ♦♣t✐♠✐st✮
t♦ ❛ ♠♦r❡ ✬✉♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞✬ ✶✼✪✱ ✶✻✪ ✭♦r ❧♦ ✇ ❡r✮✳

✹✳✸✳ ❚ ♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✼✶
✹✳✸✳✻ ❘✐s❦ ❛♥❞ t✐♠❡ ♣r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡s
❲❤❡♥ ♠♦❞❡❧✐♥❣ ❛♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ✇✐t❤ ❛ s✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞ ❛❣❡♥t ✇❡ ♠❛❦❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛❜♦✉t
❤♦✇ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝r❡❛t❡ t❤❡✐r ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦s✿ ❤♦✇ ♠✉❝❤ ❝❛s❤ ❞♦ t❤❡② ❤♦❧❞ ❛♥❞ ❤♦✇ ♠✉❝❤ ❞♦
t❤❡② ✐♥✈❡st ✐♥ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t✳ ❆♥ ❛❣❡♥t ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ♠♦❞❡❧❡❞ ❛s ❛♥ ♦♣t✐♠✐③❡r ♦❢ ♠❡❛♥✲
✈ ❛r✐❛♥❝❡✱ ♦❢ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ✉t✐❧✐t② ♠❛①✐♠✐③✐♥❣ ♦r ♥♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ t✇♦✳ ❚❤❡ r✐s❦ ❛tt✐t✉❞❡ ♦❢
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✐s ♥♦t s✐♠♣❧❡ t♦ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❛♥❞ ♦♥❡ s❤♦✉❧❞ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡ ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ♦♥❡ ❝❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝
r✐s❦ ❛tt✐t✉❞❡s t♦ s✉♣♣♦rt t❤❡ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡✐t② ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♦✉r ♠❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣② ✳ ❘✐s❦
❛✈❡rs✐♦♥ ✐s s❤♦✇♥✱ ✐♥ ✭ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✷❜ ✮✱ t♦ ❜❡ ❛♥ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ❢❛❝t♦r ✐♥ t❤❡
♣❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦r✬s str❛t❡❣② ✳
ș♥ r❡❣❛r❞s t♦ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❤♦r✐③♦♥s✱ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥♦✉s ❢r♦♠ ♠②♦♣✐❝
✭❧♦♦❦✐♥❣ t♦ q✉✐❝❦❧② ❡①✐t ♣♦s✐t✐♦♥s✮ ♦r ❛r❡ r❡❛❞② t♦ ❤♦❧❞ ♣♦s✐t✐♦♥s ❢♦r ❛ ❧♦♥❣❡r✲t❡r♠✳
▼♦❞❡❧✐♥❣ ✐♥✈❡st♦r t✐♠❡ ♣r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡s ✐s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t✱ ❛s ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ✐♥ ✭ ▲❡❇❛r♦♥ ✱✷✵✵✶ ✮✱
❛♥❞ ❛❧❧ ❝❤♦✐❝❡s s❤♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ❝❧❡❛r❧② ❥✉st✐✜❡❞✳ ❆ ❣♦♦❞ ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ✐s t♦ ♣❡r♠✐t ❛ ♠✐① ♦❢
♣r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡s✱ s❤♦rt ❛♥❞ ❧♦♥❣ ❤♦r✐③♦♥ ❢♦r ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t✱ ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❡✐r ❝♦✲❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥✳
❘❡❢❡rr✐♥❣ t♦ r✐s❦ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♠♦st ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs ❞♦♥✬t ❢♦❝✉s ♦♥ r✐s❦ ❛♥❞
✉s❡ ❛ ❝❧❛ss✐❝ ❢♦r♠ ♦❢ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ♠❡❛s✉r❡✳ ❆ ♥❡✇❧② ♣✉❜❧✐s❤❡❞ ♠♦❞❡❧✱ ✐♥ ✭ ❚❤✉r♥❡r
❡t ❛❧✳ ✱✷✵✶✷ ✮ ❢♦❝✉s❡s ♦♥ ❛♥♦t❤❡r ❛s♣❡❝t ♦❢ r✐s❦✿ s②st❡♠✐❝ r✐s❦✳ ❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♠♦❞❡❧
❛♥ ❡♥t✐r❡ ✬st②❧✐③❡❞✬ ❡❝♦♥♦♠② ❝♦♥s✐st✐♥❣ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭❡✳❣✳ ❤❡❞❣❡ ❢✉♥❞s✮✱
✉♥✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ ❜❛♥❦s t❤❛t ♣r♦✈✐❞❡ ❝r❡❞✐ts✳ ❚❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞ ❛❣❡♥ts s❡♥❞
❞❡♠❛♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✭t❤❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ t❤❡ ❧♦✇❡r
t❤❡ ❞❡♠❛♥❞✮✳ ❲❤✐❧❡ t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐s ✐♥t❡r❡st✐♥❣✱ ✐♥ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡ t♦ ✐ts ♣✉r♣♦s❡✱ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡
s♦♠❡ ❢❡❛t✉r❡s t❤❛t ♠❛❦❡ ✐t ✉♥r❡❛❧✐st✐❝ ✭❡✳❣✳ t❤❡ ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✉♥✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
✐s ❛ ✇❡❛❦✲♠❡❛♥ r❡✈❡rt✐♥❣ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮✳ ❆s ✇❡ ❞✐s❝✉ss❡❞ ✐♥
❝❤❛♣t❡r ✱ ❛ ♠♦❞❡❧ s❤♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t ❤❛✈❡ ❛s ✐♥♣✉t t❤❡ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s t❤❛t ✇❡ ❞❡s✐r❡ ✐♥ t❤❡
♦✉t♣✉t✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡✱ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❢♦r❝❡❞ ❜② ❞❡s✐❣♥ t♦ r❡✈❡rt t♦ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳
❚❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ❞r❛✇ ✐♥t❡r❡st✐♥❣ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s ❛❜♦✉t ❤♦✇ t❤❡ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥s ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡✱
❜❛♥❦ ♣r❡❝❛✉t✐♦♥ r❡❣✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ s②st❡♠✐❝ r✐s❦✳ ❲❤❛t ✇❡ s❤♦✉❧❞ r❡t❛✐♥ ✐s t❤❡ ✐❞❡❛
t❤❛t ✧s②st❡♠✐❝ r✐s❦✧ ♠❛② ❜❡ r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥t ✐♥ ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ t❛❦❡♥ ✐♥t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ❜②
✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ❚❤✉s✱ ❛ ♠♦r❡ ❝♦♠♣r❡❤❡♥s✐✈❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♠♦❞❡❧ s❤♦✉❧❞ t❛❦❡ t❤❡
s②st❡♠✐❝ r✐s❦ ❢❛❝t♦r ✐♥t♦ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛t✐♦♥✳
✹✳✸✳✼ ❆❣❡♥ t ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣
❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ r❡✢❡❝ts t❤❡ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ♦❢ r❡❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ❙❡✈❡r❛❧ ♠❡t❤♦❞s
❢♦r ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ❤❛✈❡ ❜❡❡♥ r❡s❡❛r❝❤❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❛❝❦♥♦✇❧❡❞❣❡❞ ❛s ❝♦rr❡❝t✳ ❇❡❢♦r❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥✐♥❣
s♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ♠❡t❤♦❞s ✇❡ ✇❛♥t t♦ ♣♦✐♥t ♦✉t t❤❛t ❛❧❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ♣♦ss❡ss ❛ ❧❛t❡♥t ❢♦r♠
♦❢ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣✿ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥❛r② ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ✭❛❧s♦ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ♣❛ss✐✈❡ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣✮✳ ❇② ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥❛r②
❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ✇❡ ❡①♣r❡ss t❤❡ ❢❛❝t t❤❛t ❛ s②st❡♠ ❜❡❝♦♠❡s ❜❡tt❡r ❛❞❛♣t❡❞ t♦ ✐ts ❡♥✈✐r♦♥✲
♠❡♥t✱ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡❞ t❤❛t ❧❡ss ♣❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❡✈❡♥t✉❛❧❧② ❞✐s❛♣♣❡❛r ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ s②st❡♠✳
❖♥ ❛ ♠✐❝r♦ ❧❡✈❡❧✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t ✐s ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ s②st❡♠✬s ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥❛r② ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ✐❢ ❤❡
✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ❡①❝❧✉❞❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ s②st❡♠ ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ ♦t❤❡r s✉♣❡r✐♦r ❝♦♠♣❡t✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥ts✳ ș♥

✼✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱ t❤❡ ♣ ❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ✐s t❤❡ r❡t✉r♥ r❛t❡✳ ❚❤ ✉s✱
❛❣❡♥ ts t❤❛t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✇✐❧❧✱ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❧♦♥❣ r✉♥✱ ❧♦s❡ ❛❧❧ t❤❡✐r ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ✭♣r♦✲
✈✐❞❡❞ t❤❡ ❣❛♠❡s ✐♥ ③❡r♦✲s✉♠ ♦r t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ✇✐t❤ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❞♦ ✇♥ t✉r♥s✮ ❛♥❞
✇✐❧❧ ❡✈ ❡♥ t✉❛❧❧② ❜ ❡ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❲ ❡ s❛ ② t❤❛t ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❤❛s ❛
❢♦r♠ ♦❢ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥❛r② ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐t ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡s ✉♥❞❡r♣ ❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❚❤❡
♥❡❝❡ss❛r② ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ❢♦r t❤✐s ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥❛r② ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ❛r❡✿
• ❚❤❡ s②st❡♠ ✐s r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡❧② ❝❧♦s❡❞✿ ♥♦t ♠❛♥ ② ♥❡✇✱ ❛♥❞ ❧❡ss ✬❛❞❛♣t❡❞✬ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱
❡♥ t❡r r❡❣✉❧❛r❧② t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ♥❡✇✲❝♦♠❡rs ❜ ❡❝♦♠❡ ❛ ♣r❛ ② ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠♦r❡
✬❛❞❛♣t❡❞✬ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳
• ❚ r❛❞✐♥❣ ✐s ❢r❡q✉❡♥ t✳ ▲♦ ✇ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡s ❞♦♥✬t ♣ ❡r♠✐t ❡①❝ ❤❛♥❣❡s ♦❢ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ❢r♦♠ ❧❡ss
t♦ ❜ ❡tt❡r ♣ ❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣✐❡s✱ ❛t ❧❡❛st ♥♦t ♦♥ ❞❡❝❡♥ t t✐♠❡ s❝❛❧❡s✳
ș♥ t❤❡ ❧♦♥❣ t❡r♠✱ ✐❢ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ✇ ♦r❦s ❛s ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞✱ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐❧❧ r❡❛❝ ❤ ❛ ♣ ♦✐♥ t
✇❤❡r❡ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✇✐❧❧ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ✇ ❡❧❧ ♣ ❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❛❧❧ tr❛❞❡s
✇✐❧❧ ❝❡❛s❡ ✭s✐♥❝❡ ♥♦ ❛❣❡♥ t ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ ❜✉② ❤✐❣❤ ✴ s❡❧❧ ❧♦ ✇✮✳ ❚❤✐s ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡
✐s ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② ✐♠♣❧✐❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t t❤❡♦r② ✳ ❚❤✐s ♣❛ss✐✈ ❡ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ ♦❢ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣
❞♦ ❡s♥✬t r❡q✉✐r❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t♦ ❛❝t✐✈ ❡❧② ❛❞❛♣t t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦♥❧② t❤❡ ♣r❡✈ ❛✐❧✐♥❣
str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✇✐❧❧ ♣ ❡rs✐st ✐♥ t✐♠❡✳
❚❤❡ ♦t❤❡r t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ r❡q✉✐r❡s ✈ ♦❧✉♥ t❛r② ❛❝t✐♦♥ ❢r♦♠ ❛❣❡♥ ts✳ ❚❤✐s t ②♣ ❡
♦❢ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ✐s ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❛❝t✐✈ ❡ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐t r❡q✉✐r❡s ❛❣❡♥ ts t♦ ❛❝t✐✈ ❡❧② ✐♠♣r♦ ✈ ❡
t❤❡✐r str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❢♦r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐♥❣✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ♦❢ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡
s❡✈ ❡r❛❧ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ❛ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡r s❤♦✉❧❞ ❛♥s✇ ❡r ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ❡q✉✐♣ ❤✐s ❛❣❡♥ ts ✇✐t❤ t❤❡
❝❛♣❛❝✐t ② ❢♦r ❛❝t✐✈ ❡ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣✳ ❚❤❡ ✜rst q✉❡st✐♦♥ s❤♦✉❧❞ ❜ ❡ ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ♥❛t✉r❡ ♦❢ t❤❡
♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts✳ ❙❤♦✉❧❞ t❤❡② ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ✉t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤✱ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢
✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ ♣r♦s♣ ❡❝t t❤❡♦r② ♦r t❤❡✐r ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ t♦ ♠❡❛♥ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ♦❢ t❤❡
♣ ♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥❄ ❙❤♦✉❧❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ r❡t✉r♥s r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ t♦ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s ✭♦r
♥♦♥✲r✐s❦② r❡t✉r♥s✮ ♦r s❤♦✉❧❞ t❤❡② ❥✉st ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r t❤❡✐r ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r❡t✉r♥s❄ ❊❛❝ ❤ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡
♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥s ✐♠♣❧✐❡s ❛♥❞ ♣r♦ ❞✉❝❡s ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❚❤✐s
❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ✐s t❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ❤✐❣❤❧② r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥ t ❛♥❞ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❢♦r t❤❡ ❝♦♥str✉❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♠♦ ❞❡❧✳
❖♥❝❡ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ✐s s❡t ✇ ❡ ❧♦ ♦❦ ❛t ❤♦ ✇ ❛❣❡♥ ts ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② ❧❡❛r♥✳
❚❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ❜❛s✐❝❛❧❧② t ✇ ♦ ❢♦r♠s ♦❢ ❛❝t✐✈ ❡ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣✿ ✐♥♥♦ ✈ ❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥✳ ❋✐rst❧② ✱
✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ✇✐❧❧ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ✐♠✐t❛t❡ t❤❡ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ♦❢ ❜ ❡tt❡r ♣ ❡r✲
❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥ ts✳ ❯♥❞❡r♣ ❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ❞✐s❝❛r❞❡❞ ♠ ✉❝ ❤ ❢❛st❡r ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ♦✲
❧✉t✐♦♥ ✇✐❧❧ t❛❦ ❡ ✐ts ❝♦✉rs❡✳ ❙❡❝♦♥❞❧② ✱ ✐♥♥♦ ✈ ❛t✐♦♥ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t ❛❣❡♥ ts ✇✐❧❧ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ t❤❡
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ♦❢ t❤❡✐r str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✭✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❜✐❛s ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r✱ r✐s❦ ❜✐❛s✱ r✐s❦ ❛ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥✱
tr✐❣❣❡r ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ❢♦r s❡❧❧✐♥❣✴❜✉②✐♥❣✱ ❢r❡q✉❡♥❝② ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣✱ ❡t❝✳✮✳ ❚❤✐s ♣r♦ ❝❡ss ✐♥ ✈ ♦❧✈ ❡s
❡✈ ❡♥ ❢❛st❡r ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❛❞❛♣t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣ ❡t✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣✐❡s✳ ❲❤❡♥ ❛❧❧ ✭♦r ♠♦st✮
❛❣❡♥ ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤✐s ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ❛❜✐❧✐t ② t❤❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜ ❡❝♦♠❡s ❛♥ ❡❝♦s②s✲
t❡♠ ♦❢ ❢❛st ❡✈ ♦❧✈✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣ ❡t✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣✐❡s✳ ❘❡❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❡①❤✐❜✐t ❜ ♦t❤ ❢♦r♠s ♦❢
❛❝t✐✈ ❡ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣✳ ❚❤❡ ❝♦♠ ❜✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ t ✇ ♦ t ②♣ ❡s ♣r♦ ❞✉❝❡s ✐♥ t❡r❡st✐♥❣ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s
✐♥ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳

✹✳✸✳ ❚ ♦♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦rs ✼✸
✹✳✸✳✽ ❆❣❡♥ t str❛t❡❣② ❜✐❛s
▼❛r❦❡ts ❛r❡ ❞r✐✈❡♥ ❜② ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❡①tr❡♠❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ ♣r♦❞✉❝❡ ❡①tr❡♠❡
❡✛❡❝ts ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ❚❤❡ ❤✉♠❛♥ ❜r❛✐♥ ❤❛s ❛ ♣❛rt✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❜r❛✐♥ st❡♠✱ ✇❤✐❝❤
✐s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ ❛ ♣r✐♠✐t✐✈❡ ❜r❛✐♥✳ ❚❤❡ ❜r❛✐♥ st❡♠ ❝❛♥ ✐♥❤✐❜✐t t❤❡ ❝♦rt❡① ✭t❤❡ ❜✐❣ r❛t✐♦✲
♥❛❧ ❜r❛✐♥✮ ❛♥❞ t❛❦❡ ❧✐❣❤t♥✐♥❣ ❢❛st ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ s❡♥❞ ❝♦♠♠❛♥❞s t♦ t❤❡ ❧♦❝♦♠♦t♦r②
s②st❡♠ ✭❧✐❦❡ ❥✉♠♣✐♥❣ ♦✉t ♦❢ t❤❡ ✇❛② ♦❢ ❛ ❝❛r ♦r ❛✈♦✐❞✐♥❣ ❛ ✢②✐♥❣ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✮✳ ❚❤❡s❡ r❡✲
❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ tr✐❣❣❡r❡❞ ❜② ❡①tr❡♠❡ ❡♠♦t✐♦♥s ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛r❡ ✐♥ t✉r♥ ❝❛✉s❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ❞❡t❡❝t✐♦♥
♦❢ ❛♥ ✐♠♣❡♥❞✐♥❣ ❣r❛✈❡ ❞❛♥❣❡r✳
❊①tr❡♠❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❛rr✐✈❡s ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❝❛♥✱ ❛♥❞ ♦❢t❡♥ ❞♦❡s✱ ❝❛✉s❡
❡rr❛t✐❝ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❊①tr❡♠❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥ts✱ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠ ♦❢ ♠♦r❡
t❤❛♥3∗σ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥ ❢r♦♠ ❤✐st♦r✐❝ r❡t✉r♥s ❛r❡ s❡❡♥ ♠♦r❡ ♦❢t❡♥ t❤❛♥ ✇❡ ❡①♣❡❝t ❢r♦♠
t❤❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t❤❡♦r② ✭s❡❡ ❧❡♣t♦❦✉rt✐❝ r❡t✉r♥s✱ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✸✳✻ ✮✳
❚❤❡ r❡❛s♦♥ ❢♦r t❤❡s❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♦✉t❝♦♠❡s ✐s r♦♦t❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✧♥♦t ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧②✧ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧
❛♥❞ r❡♣❡❛t❛❜❧❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳
❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✇❡ ♣r♦♣♦s❡ t❤❛t ❛❣❡♥ts✱ ✐♥ s✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✱ s❤♦✉❧❞ ♣♦ss❡ss
s♦♠❡ ❢♦r♠ ♦❢ tr✐❣❣❡r ❢♦r r❛s❤ ❛♥❞ ❢❛st r❡❛❝t✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤❡s❡ r❡❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ❝❛✉s❡❞ ❜② ❡①✲
♦❣❡♥♦✉s ❢❛❝t♦rs✿ ❧❛❝❦ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ❡①tr❡♠❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ r✉♠♦rs ♦r ❜② ❡♥❞♦❣❡♥♦✉s
❢❛❝t♦rs✿ ❧♦ss ❛✈❡rs✐♦♥ ❧❡✈❡❧✱ ❤✐❣❤ ❝♦♠♣✉❧s♦r② ❝♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥✱ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ♣❡r✐♦❞✳
▼♦st ♠♦❞❡❧s ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t ✐❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♦r ♥♦t ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② r ❛t✐♦♥❛❧ t❤❡② ✇✐❧❧
❜❡❤❛✈❡ ❧✐❦❡ t❤✐s ✐♥ ❛ ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥t ❛♥❞ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❛❜❧❡ ♠❛♥♥❡r✳ ❙✉❝❤ ❡①tr❡♠❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r
❝❛♥ ❜❡tt❡r ❝❛♣t✉r❡ t❤❡ ✉♥♣r❡❞✐❝t❛❜❧❡ ❛♥❞ ✐♥❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐st ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ❖❢
❝♦✉rs❡✱ ✐❢ t❤✐s ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ✐s ✉♥❞❡r♣❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ✐t ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡❞ t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥✳
❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✐t ✐s ❞✐✣❝✉❧t t♦ ❛r❣✉❡ t❤❛t ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝✐♥❣ s✉❝❤ ❛♥ ❡①tr❡♠❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❢❡❛t✉r❡
❝❛♥ ❞✐st✉r❜ ♠❛r❦❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ❢♦r ❛ s✉✣❝✐❡♥t❧② ❧♦♥❣ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ♦❢ t✐♠❡✳
✹✳✸✳✾ Pr✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❚❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠ ✐s ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥ts ♦❢ ❛ s✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❘❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✉s❡ ♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦s t❤❛t ♠❛t❝❤ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞✐♥❣ tr❛♥s❛❝✲
t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ♦✛❡r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜♦✉t ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❞✉r✐♥❣ ❛ t✐♠❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞✳ ❙✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞
♠❛r❦❡ts ✉s❡ ❛ ✈ ❛r✐❡t② ♦❢ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠s t❤❛t ❝❛♥ s✐♠♣❧✐❢② t❤❡ ✉s❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ tr❛❝t❛❜✐❧✐t②
♦❢ t❤❡✐r ♠♦❞❡❧s✳ ✭ ❇♦tt❛③③✐ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✺ ✮ ♠❛❦❡ ❛ ❣♦♦❞ ❝♦♠♣❛r✐s♦♥ ❛❜♦✉t ♠❛r❦❡t ♦r✲
❣❛♥✐③❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❤♦✇ t❤✐s ❝❛♥ ❛✛❡❝t ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❲ ❡ ❛❞❤❡r❡ t♦ t❤❡ ♦♣✐♥✐♦♥ t❤❛t
s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs s❤♦✉❧❞ ✉s❡ tr✉❡ ♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦s ❢♦r ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭❛s ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✭ ❊♣✲
st❡✐♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✻ ✮✱ ♣❛❣❡ ✶✶✾✹✮✳ ❲ ❡ ♠❛❦❡ ❛ ❜r✐❡❢ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ✐♥t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ♠♦❞❡❧s ✉s❡❞
✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳
❖♥❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠ ❝♦♥s✐sts ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ♠❛❦❡r t❤❛t ❛♥♥♦✉♥❝❡s ♣r✐❝❡s
❛t ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛❣❡♥ts s❡♥❞ ❜✉②✴s❡❧❧ ♦r❞❡rs✳ ❈♦♥s❡q✉❡♥t❧② ✱ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❛❞❥✉st❡❞ ♣r♦❣r❡s✲
s✐✈❡❧② t♦ ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡ t❤❡ ❡①❝❡ss ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ♦r s✉♣♣❧② ✱ ❛s ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ ✐♥ ✭ ❋ ❛r♠❡r ❛♥❞ ❏♦s❤✐ ✱
✷✵✵✵ ✮✳ ❆♥♦t❤❡r ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠ ❝♦♥s✐sts ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ts ♠❡❡t✐♥❣ r❛♥❞♦♠❧② ❛♥❞ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❛ss❡ts
❢♦r ❛♥ ❛❞✲❤♦❝ ❛❣r❡❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡ ✭s❡❡ ✭ ❇❡❧tr❛tt✐ ❛♥❞ ▼❛r❣❛r✐t❛ ✱ ✶✾✾✷ ✮ ❢♦r ❛♥ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✮✳

✼✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
❆❧t❤♦✉❣❤ t❤❡s❡ t✇♦ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠s s✐♠♣❧✐❢② t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t ♠♦❞❡❧s t❤❡② ❛❧s♦ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡ s♦♠❡
♠✐❝r♦str✉❝t✉r❡ ❢❡❛t✉r❡s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ♣r❡s❡♥t❧② st✉❞✐❡❞ ✐♥ r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ❚❤❡
♠♦st r❡❛❧✐st✐❝ ♠❡t❤♦❞ ✐s t❤❡ ♦♥❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡❞ ✐♥ ✭ ❈❤✐❛r❡❧❧❛ ❛♥❞ ș♦r✐ ✱ ✷✵✵✷ ✮ ♦r ✭ ❘❛❜❡rt♦
❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✶ ✮✳ ❚❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✉s❡s ❛ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦ t♦ r❡s♦❧✈❡ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ✜♥❞
♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✭s❡❡ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✸✳✷ ❢♦r ❞❡t❛✐❧s ❛❜♦✉t ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
♠❛r❦❡ts✮✳
❚❤❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t t②♣❡s ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠s ❤❛✈❡ ❜❡❡♥ st✉❞✐❡❞
❜② ♠❛♥② r❡s❡❛r❝❤❡rs s✉❝❤ ❛s ✭ ❘❛❜❡rt♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✺ ✮✳ ș♥ t❤❡ t❤r❡❡ ✈❡rs✐♦♥s ✭●❆❙▼
✶✱ ✷ ❛♥❞ ✸✮ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ●❊◆❖❆ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r✱ ❘❛❜❡rt♦ ❛♥❞ ❈✐♥❝♦tt✐ s❤♦✇ ❤♦✇ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t
t②♣❡s ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠s ❝❛♥ ✐♠♣❛❝t t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ❊✈❡♥ ✐❢
t❤✐s ●❊◆❖❆ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ✐s ♦❢t❡♥ q✉♦t❡❞ ✇❤❡♥ ♣r♦✈✐❞✐♥❣ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ✬st②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts✬
❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ✜♥❞✐♥❣s✱ s♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ✈❡rs✐♦♥s ✭♥♦t❛❜❧② ●❆❙▼ ✶✮ ♠❛❦❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ♦♥
t❤❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t❤❛t ✐♠♣❧✐❝✐t❧② ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ s♦♠❡ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ✭❡✳❣✳
❛❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ♦r❞❡rs st♦❝❤❛st✐❝❛❧❧② ❛s ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❤✐st♦r✐❝❛❧ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t②✮✳
✹✳✹ ❈r✐t✐❝s ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛s ❛
♠❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣② ❢♦r r❡s❡❛r❝❤
❆❣❡♥t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs ✇❡r❡ ✜rst ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✶✾✽✵✬s ❛♥❞ t❤❡② ♣r♦✈✐❞❡❞ t❤❡
♠❡❛♥s t♦ ♠♦❞❡❧ s②st❡♠s ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ✧❜♦tt♦♠✲✉♣✧ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤✿ ♠♦❞❡❧ t❤❡ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ ❜❧♦❝❦s ♦❢
❛ s②st❡♠s ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ ✐ts ❡♠❡r❣❡♥t ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡❞ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s✳ ▲✐❦❡ ✇✐t❤ ❛♥② ♥❡✇
❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤✱ t❤✐s ♠❡t❤♦❞ ✇❛s ♠❡❡t ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❧♦t ♦❢ ❝r✐t✐❝ ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❛♣♣r♦✈ ❛❧✱ ❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧❧② ❢r♦♠
t❤❡ ❞❡❢❡♥❞❡rs ♦❢ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ r❡s❡❛r❝❤ ♠❡t❤♦❞s ✭❡✐t❤❡r ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t❛❧ ♦r ♣✉r❡ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧✮✳
ș♥ t❤✐s ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✇❡ r❡✈✐❡✇ ❛♥❞ ❛❞❞r❡ss t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ❝r✐t✐❝s ❢♦r ♦✉r ♠❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣② ✳
✶✳ ✧ ❙✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛r ❡ ✈❡r② ❛❜str ❛❝t ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ♦❢ ❛ r ❡ ❛❧✐t② ❛♥❞ t❤❡② ❝ ❛♥♥♦t
❝ ❛♣t✉r ❡ t❤❡ r ❡ ❛❧✐t② ❛♥❞ ❝ ♦♠♣❧❡①✐t② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✧ ✳
❇② ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥✱ ❛ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐s ❛ s✐♠♣❧✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥♦♥✳ ❆ ♠✉❧t✐✲❛❣❡♥t s✐♠✉✲
❧❛t♦r ❞♦❡s♥✬t tr② t♦ ❝❛♣t✉r❡ t❤❡ ❡♥t✐r❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡①✐t② ♦❢ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❈♦♥tr❛r② ✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t✲
❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❛✐♠s t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛♥ ❛❜str❛❝t r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t t❤❛t ❜❡❤❛✈❡s✱
✐♥ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡✱ ✐♥ ❛ s✐♠✐❧❛r ♠❛♥♥❡r ❛s r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ▼♦r❡♦✈❡r✱ t❤❡ ❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡ ✉s❡❞ ✐♥
❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✭❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡✮ ♣❡r♠✐ts t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣❧❡①
r✉❧❡s ❛♥❞ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦rs ✭✇❤✐❝❤ ✐s ❡①tr❡♠❡❧② ❞✐✣❝✉❧t t♦ ❞♦ ✉s✐♥❣ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❡q✉❛✲
t✐♦♥s✮✳ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥t ❢r♦♠ ♦t❤❡r ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤❡s✱ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦❞❡❧✐♥❣ ♠❛❦❡s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s
♦♥ ❛ ♠✐❝r♦✲❧❡✈❡❧ ❜❛s✐s ✭❡✳❣✳ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r✮ ❛♥❞ ♣❡r♠✐ts t❤❡ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ s✉❝❤
❛♥ ❡♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❡ ❡♠❡r❣❡♥t ♠❛❝r♦✲❧❡✈❡❧ ♣❛tt❡r♥s✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱
❝♦♠♣❧❡① ❛♥❞ ✉♥❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❝❛♥ ❡♠❡r❣❡ ❢r♦♠ ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡✲❞❡✜♥❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r✳
✷✳ ✧ ❆ ❣❡♥t✲❜ ❛s❡ ❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛r ❡ ❝ ♦♠♣✉t❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❜❧❛❝❦✲❜ ♦①❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡✐r
❞❡s✐❣♥❡rs ❝ ❛♥ t✇❡ ❛❦ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✐♥ ♦r ❞❡r t♦ ♦❜t❛✐♥ t❤❡ r ❡s✉❧ts t❤❡②
♥❡ ❡ ❞✳ ❚❤❡r ❡❢♦r ❡✱ t❤❡ r ❡s✉❧ts ❞✐s❝ ♦✈❡r ❡ ❞ ❛r ❡ ♥♦t ♠♦r ❡ t❤❛♥ ✇❤❛t ✇❛s
❛❧r ❡ ❛❞② ❜✉✐❧t ✐♥s✐❞❡ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✧ ✳

✹✳✹✳ ❈r✐t✐❝s ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛s ❛ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ❢♦r
r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✼✺
❚❤✐s ❝r✐t✐❝ ✐s ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② tr✉❡ ❢♦r ❛❧❧ t②♣❡s ♦❢ ♠♦❞❡❧s✳ ❚❤❡ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ✐s
t❤❛t r❡s❡❛r❝❤❡r ✧t✇❡❛❦✐♥❣✧ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❜❡tt❡r ❤✐❞❞❡♥ ✐♥ ❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♣r♦❣r❛♠ ✭❛t ❧❡❛st
✇❤❡♥ ✐t ❤❛s ❛♥ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ❝♦❞❡✮ t❤❛♥ ✐♥s✐❞❡ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧
❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✳ ❚ ♦ ❝♦✉♥t❡r❛❝t s✉❝❤ ✬✈✐s✐❜✐❧✐t②✬ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s✱ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ❛
s✐♠♣❧❡ ❛♥❞ ♣♦✇❡r❢✉❧ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t②✿ r❡♣❡❛t❛❜✐❧✐t② ✳ ❆ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❣r❛♠ ❝❛♥
❜❡ ♠❛❞❡ ♣✉❜❧✐❝ ❛♥❞ t❡st❡❞ ❡❛s✐❧② ❜② r❡s❡❛r❝❤❡rs ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❡♥t✐r❡ ✇♦r❧❞✳ ❇② ♠❛❦✐♥❣
t❤❡ s♦✉r❝❡ ❝♦❞❡ ♣✉❜❧✐❝✱ t❤❡ s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ r❡✈✐❡✇❡❞✳ ❆♥②❜♦❞② ❝❛♥
❥✉❞❣❡ ✐❢ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts ❛r❡ s♦♠❡❤♦✇ ❡♠❜❡❞❞❡❞ ✐♥s✐❞❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ♣❛rts ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❞❡s✐❣♥✳
ș♥ ♦♣♣♦s✐t✐♦♥✱ ❝❧❛ss✐❝ ♠♦❞❡❧s ❝❛♥♥♦t ❛❧✇❛②s ❜❡ t❡st❡❞ ✭❜② ♦t❤❡r r❡s❡❛r❝❤❡rs✮ ❜❡❝❛✉s❡
t❤❡ ❛♥❛❧②③❡❞ ❞❛t❛ ✐s ❝♦♥✜❞❡♥t✐❛❧ ♦r t❤❡ ♠❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣② ✉s❡❞ ✐s ❤✐❣❤❧② ❝♦♠♣❧✐❝❛t❡❞✳
✸✳ ✧ ❇❡ ❝ ❛✉s❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛r ❡ ♥✉♠❡r✐❝ ❛❧ ✇❡ ❝ ❛♥♥♦t ✉s❡ t❤❡♠ t♦ ❡①tr ❛❝t
❣❡♥❡r ❛❧ t❤❡ ♦r✐❡s✳✧
❚❤❡ ♣✉r♣♦s❡ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥t s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ✐s ❝❧♦s❡r t♦ t❡st✐♥❣ t❤❡♦r✐❡s r❛t❤❡r t❤❛♥ ❝♦♥✲
str✉❝t✐♥❣ ♥❡✇ ♦♥❡s✳ ș♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ✉s❡❞ t♦ s❡❡ ✐❢✱ ✐♥
t❤❡ ❧♦♥❣ t❡r♠✱ t❤❡ s✉r✈✐✈♦rs ❢r♦♠ ❛ ♠✐① ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♦♥❧② t❤❡ ♦♥❡s t❤❛t r❡s♣❡❝t
t❤❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✐♠♣❧✐❡❞ ❜② ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ t❤❡♦r② ✭❡✳❣✳ ❈❆✻▼ t❤❡♦r②✮✳ ❆s ❛r❣✉❡❞ ✐♥
❝❤❛♣t❡r ✱ ♦✉r ♠❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣② ♦✛❡rs t❤❡ ♠❡❛♥s t♦ t❡st t❤❡ ❛tt❛✐♥❛❜✐❧✐t② ♦❢ t❤❡ t❤❡♦r❡t✲
✐❝❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✐❞ ✬♠❛r❦❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②✬ st❛t❡✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ r❛t❤❡r t❤❛♥ ❡①tr❛❝t✐♥❣ ♥❡✇ t❤❡♦r✐❡s
✇❡ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡ ❜❡tt❡r ✇❛② t♦ t❡st ❡①✐st✐♥❣ t❤❡♦r✐❡s✳
✹✳ ✬❚❤❡ r ❡s✉❧ts ❛r ❡ ♠❡r ❡❧② ❝❤❛♥❝ ❡ ❛♥❞ r ❡♣r ❡s❡♥t ❛❞✲❤♦ ❝ ❡✛❡ ❝ts ✧ ✳
șt ✐s ♣♦ss✐❜❧❡ t❤❛t ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ r❡s✉❧t ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡❞ ❢r♦♠ ❛ ✈❡r② s♣❡❝✐✜❝ ✭❛♥❞
♠❛②❜❡ ✉♥r❡❛❧✐st✐❝✮ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ ✇♦r❧❞ s❡tt✐♥❣✳ ❚ ♦ ❝♦✉♥t❡r t❤✐s ♣r♦❜❧❡♠ r♦❜✉st♥❡ss t❡sts
❛r❡ ❡♠♣❧♦②❡❞✳ ❇② ✈ ❛r②✐♥❣ ✐♥♣✉t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✭❡✳❣✳ ❛❣❡♥t ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ♠✐①✱ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢
✐♥✈❡st♦rs✱ t✐♠❡ ❢r❛♠❡✮ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ s❡❡ ✐❢ t❤❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ r❡s✉❧t ♣❡rs✐sts ♦r ♥♦t✳ ▼♦r❡♦✈❡r✱
t❡sts ❝❛♥ ❜❡ r❡♣❡❛t❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥✜❞❡♥❝❡ ✐♥t❡r✈ ❛❧s ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡❞ ❢♦r ❡✈❡r② ♦✉t♣✉t
✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡✳
✺✳ ✧ ❆ ❣❡♥t ❜ ❛s❡ ❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ❛r ❡ ♥♦t ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝ ❛❧ ❡ q✉❛t✐♦♥s ❢♦r ✇❤✐❝❤ t❤❡r ❡
❛r ❡ ♥✉♠❡r ♦✉s r✐❣♦r ♦✉s ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s ❢♦r t❡st✐♥❣ ✧
❆ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♣r♦❣r❛♠ ✐s ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ❡q✉✐✈ ❛❧❡♥t ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✳
❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♣r♦❣r❛♠ ❤❛s t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s✱ ❛♥❞ ❛❞✈ ❛♥t❛❣❡s✱ ❛s ❛ ♠❛t❤✲
❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✳ ▼♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ❛ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t ❜❛s❡❞
♠♦❞❡❧ ❝❛♥ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t s❡ts ♦❢ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦rs t❤❛t ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❛❧✇❛②s tr❛❝t❛❜❧❡✳ ❋ ✉rt❤❡r♠♦r❡✱
❝♦♠♣❧❡① ♠♦❞❡❧s ✭❧✐❦❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r✮ ❛r❡ ❡❛s✐❡r t♦ ❡①♣r❡ss ✉s✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞
♠♦❞❡❧ t❤❛♥ ✇✐t❤ ❛ s❡t ♦❢ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥s✳
✻✳ ✧ ❆ ❣❡♥ts ❛r ❡ ♥♦t ❞❡ ❞✉❝t✐✈❡✳ ✧

✼✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
❆❝❦♥♦✇❧❡❞❣✐♥❣ ♣♦✐♥t ✺✱ ✇❡ s❛② t❤❛t ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t✬s ❛❝t✐♦♥ ✐s s✐♠✐❧❛r t♦ t❤❡ ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥
♦❢ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦♥ ❛ s❡t ♦❢ st❛t❡s ✭t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❡♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t st❛t❡s✮✳
❚❤✉s ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t✬s ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r✬s r❡s✉❧ts ❛r❡ ❞❡❞✉❝t✐♦♥s✳ ▼♦r❡♦✈❡r✱
t❤❡ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥♣✉t ❞❛t❛ ✭❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮ ✐♥t♦ ♦✉t♣✉t ✭♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✮
❞❛t❡ ✐s str✐❝t❧② ❞❡❞✉❝t✐❜❧❡ ❛♥❞ r❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡✳ ❲ ❡ ❝❛♥ r❡r✉♥ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤
t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ✐♥♣✉t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛♥❞ ♦❜t❛✐♥ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ r❡s✉❧ts ❡❛❝❤ t✐♠❡✳
✹✳✹✳✶ ❊q✉✐✈ ❛❧❡♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛♥❞ ❛
♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳
ș♥s✐❞❡ ❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♠❛r❦❡t s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥✱ ❛❣❡♥t ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦rs ❢♦❧❧♦✇ s✐♠♣❧❡ r✉❧❡s t❤❛t ❞❡❞✉❝❡
❛♥ ❛❝t✐♦♥ ✭♦r❞❡r✮ ❢r♦♠ ❛ s❡t ♦❢ ❡♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t st❛t❡s ✭✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ st❛t❡s ♦❢ ♦t❤❡r
❛❣❡♥ts✱ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✮✳ ❙✉❝❤ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ✐s ❡♥❝♦❞❡❞ ✐♥s✐❞❡ ❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♣r♦❣r❛♠ ✉s✐♥❣
❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡✳ ❆s ♣r♦✈❡❞ ❜② ❆❧❛♥ ❚ ✉r✐♥❣ ✭s❡❡ ✭ ❘✳❊ ✱ ✶✾✾✺ ✮✮ ❢♦r ❡✈❡r② ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r
♣r♦❣r❛♠ ✐t ❡①✐st ❛♥ ✐s♦♠♦r♣❤✐s♠ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②t✐❝❛❧ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✳ ❇✉✐❧❞✐♥❣
♦♥ t❤✐s ❢❛❝t ✇❡ s❤♦✇ ❤♦✇✱ ❛t ❛♥ ❛❜str❛❝t ❧❡✈❡❧✱ ❛♥ ❡♥t✐r❡ ❛❣❡♥t ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ✐s
❡q✉✐✈ ❛❧❡♥t t♦ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧✳ ▲✐❦❡ ♠❛♥② ♦t❤❡rs s②st❡♠s✱ ❡✳❣✳ ✇❡❛t❤❡r s②st❡♠✱
s✉❝❤ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❝❛♥♥♦t ❜❡ ❛❧✇❛②s tr❛❝t❛❜❧❡ ❛♥❞ ✐t ✐s ♦❢t❡♥ ❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ ✇✐t❤
❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ❛♣♣r♦①✐♠❛t✐♦♥s✳
▲❡tf ❜❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❞❡✜♥❡s t❤❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦rs ♦❢ ❛♥ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❛❣❡♥t i ❛si✿
fi:A∗M/mapsto→Order ✭✹✳✻✮
A r❡♣r❡s❡♥ts t❤❡ s❡t ♦❢ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ♣♦ss✐❜❧❡ st❛t❡s ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ts ✭♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦s✱ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈❡s✱
r✐s❦ ✈✐❡✇ ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛t✐♦♥s✮✳ M r❡♣r❡s❡♥ts t❤❡ st❛t❡s ♦❢ t❤❡
♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ❛s ✇❡❧❧ ❛s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜♦✉t ♥❡①t st❛t❡s ✭❤✐st♦r✐❝ ♣r✐❝❡s✱ ✈♦❧✉♠❡s✱
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s✱ ❡t❝✮✳
❚❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❡✈♦❧✈❡s ❢r♦♠ ♦♥❡ st❛t❡ t♦ ❛♥♦t❤❡r ❛♥❞ t❤✐s ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ✐s ♠♦❞❡❧❡❞ ❜②
❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ m ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ❛s✿
m:M∗Ordern/mapsto→M ✭✹✳✼✮
✇❤❡r❡Order r❡♣r❡s❡♥ts t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ s❡t ♦❢ ♣♦ss✐❜❧❡ ♦r❞❡rs t❤❛t ❛r❡ s❡♥t t♦
❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ❛♥❞ n r❡♣r❡s❡♥ts t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ♦r❞❡rs ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ❝❛♥ ♣r♦❝❡ss
❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t✇♦ st❛t❡s✳ ❙✉❝❤ ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ❡①✐sts s✐♥❝❡ t❤❡ ♣r♦❝❡ss ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐s❝♦✈❡r② ✐s
❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐st✐❝ ❛♥❞ ✐t ❞❡♣❡♥❞s ♦♥❧② ♦♥ t❤❡ r❡❝❡✐✈❡❞ ♦r❞❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❧❛st ♠❛r❦❡t st❛t❡✳
❆❢t❡r ❛ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t st❛t❡s t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ts✬ st❛t❡s ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✭t❤❡✐r ✇❡❛❧t❤ ❡✈♦❧✈❡s✮✳
❚❤✐s ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✐s ♠♦❞❡❧❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ❣ ✇✐t❤ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs t❤❛t ❞❡♣❡♥❞ ♦♥ ❡❛❝❤
✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❛❣❡♥t ✐✿
gi:A∗Order∗M/mapsto→A ✭✹✳✽✮

✹✳✹✳ ❈r✐t✐❝s ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛s ❛ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ❢♦r
r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✼✼
❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❡q✉✐✈ ❛❧❡♥t t♦ t❤❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ s❡t ♦❢
❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s ❧✐❦❡
A0
1..n− ❛❣❡♥t ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ st❛t❡s
M0− ♠❛r❦❡t ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ st❛t❡
Mt=m(Mt−1,fi(At−1
i,Mt−1))
At
i=gi(At−1
i,Mt)✭✹✳✾✮
❚❤❡ ✜rst t✇♦ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ t❤❡ s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✭✇❤✐❝❤ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡s
❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t✬s ❡♥❞♦✇♠❡♥ts ✭✇❡❛❧t❤ ❛♥❞ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r✮✳ ❚❤✐s
♣❛rt ❡q✉❛t❡s t♦ t❤❡ s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧❡❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✇❡
♠❛❦❡ ❛❜♦✉t ❛❣❡♥t✬s ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦rs✳ ❚❤❡ ❧❛st t✇♦ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s r❡♣r❡s❡♥t t❤❡ ❝♦✲❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥
♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❛♥❞ ❛❣❡♥t st❛t❡s✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧
❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡ ♦♥❧② ✐❢ t❤❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦rs ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ts ✭❛♥❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮ ❛r❡ ❡❛s✐❧②
tr❛♥s❧❛t❛❜❧❡ ✐♥t♦ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s ✭✇❤✐❝❤ ✐s ♦❢t❡♥ ♥♦t t❤❡ ❝❛s❡✮✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r
s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛❧❧♦✇s ✉s t♦ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ s❡r✐❡s Mt✭♠❛r❦❡t ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s✿ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥✱
✈♦❧✉♠❡s✱ ♣r✐❝❡s✮ ❛♥❞ At✭✐♥✈❡st♦r ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s✿ ❝❛s❤✱ st♦❝❦s✱ r✐s❦ ❛✈❡rs✐♦♥✱ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t
❤♦r✐③♦♥✱ ❡t❝✮ ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❡✐r st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣✳

❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺
❈♦♥tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r
✭▲❯▼❆✮
❈♦♥t❡♥ts
✺✳✶ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r✱ ❡♥ ✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥ t ❛♥❞ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✾
✺✳✷ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✶
✺✳✸ ❖r❞❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✹
✺✳✸✳✶ ❖r❞❡rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✹
✺✳✸✳✷ Pr✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✻
✺✳✹ ❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts✱ t❤❡✐r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✶
✺✳✹✳✶ ❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ t ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✶
✺✳✹✳✷ ❚❤❡ ❜✐❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✸
✺✳✹✳✸ ❚❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✹
✺✳✺ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ❝♦♥✜❣✉r❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✷
✯▲❯▼❆ ✐s ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ♦♥❧✐♥❡ ✭❛❧♦♥❣ ✇✐t❤ ❞❡t❛✐❧❡❞ ✐♥str✉❝t✐♦♥s✮ ❛t
❤ tt♣✿✴✴❝❡r❛❣✳♦r❣✴❧✉❝✐❛♥st❛♥❝✐✉✴▲❯▼❆✴✐♥❞❡①✳❤ t♠❧
✺✳✶ ❙✐♠✉❧❛t♦r✱ ❡♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s
❚❤❡ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r✲❜❛s❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❝r❡❛t❡❞ ✐s ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ▲❯▼❆✳
❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r✬s ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ✐s t♦ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡ ❛ s❡r✐❡s ♦❢ r❡❛❧✐st✐❝ ❞❛✐❧② st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦❡t
♦♣❡♥✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡s ✳ ș♥ ♦t❤❡r ✇ ♦r❞s✱ ✇ ❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡ t❤❡ ❡①tr❛✲❞❛② ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s ✐♥ ❛
st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❚❤✐s ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣ t✐♠❡ ✐s ❥✉st✐✜❡❞ ❜ ② t ✇ ♦ r❡❛s♦♥s✿ ✶✮ ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s
♦❢ ✐♥ tr❛✲❞❛ ② ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉♦✉s tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✐♥❝♦r♣ ♦r❛t❡ ♠ ✉❝ ❤ ♠♦r❡ ♥♦✐s❡ ❛♥❞ ❧❡ss ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❛❜ ♦✉t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s t❤❛♥ ❞✉r✐♥❣ ❡①tr❛✲❞❛ ② tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✭st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ♦❢
t❤❡s❡ ✐♥ tr❛❞❛ ② ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧② r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥ t ❢♦r ♦✉r r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s✮ ❛♥❞
✷✮ ♠♦st ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ st✉❞✐❡s✱ ❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧② r❡❣❛r❞✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r
❜✐❛s❡s✱ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❞❛✐❧② ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s ❛s r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡✳
▲❯▼❆ r❡♣❧✐❝❛t❡s ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❢♦r♠❡❞ ❜ ② t ✇ ♦ ❛ss❡ts✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❛r❡ ❛❝❝❡ss✐❜❧❡
t♦ ❛❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✿ ❛ r✐s❦✲❢r❡❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❛ss❡t ✇✐t❤ ❛ ✵✪ r❡t✉r♥ ❛♥❞ ❛ r✐s❦② ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
❛ss❡t t❤❛t✱ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥✱ ♣❛ ②s ♥♦ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s✳ ❚❤❡ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❛
✵✪ ❜ ♦♥❞ ✐s ♠❛❞❡ ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ s✐♠♣❧✐❢② t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❛♥❞ ✐t ❤❛s ♥♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦♥ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡

✽✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺✳ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮
❞②♥❛♠✐❝s✳ ❖♥❡ ❝❛♥ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r t❤❛t ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✬s ❝❛s❤ ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t ❛❝❝✉♠ ✉❧❛t❡ ✐♥ t❡r❡st
❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♦♥❧② ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ ❣❛✐♥s ❛r❡ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ❣❛✐♥s ❢r♦♠ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐♥❣ ✐♥ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t✳ ❚❤✐s
❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t ❧✐♠✐t ♦✉r r❡s✉❧ts ❛♥❞ ✐t ❤❛s ❜ ❡❡♥ ✉s❡❞ ✐♥ ♦t❤❡r ♣✉❜❧✐s❤❡❞
st✉❞✐❡s ❧✐❦ ❡ ✭ ❋ ❛r♠❡r ❛♥❞ ❏♦s❤✐ ✱ ✷✵✵✵ ✮✳
Price formation
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Order
OrderMarket prices
Fundamental
evolution+Bias
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❋✐❣✉r❡ ✺✳✶✿ ❋❧♦✇ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥s✐❞❡ t❤❡ ▲❯▼❆ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r
❚❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❛❣❡♥ts✮ t❤❛t ❛r❡ ♠♦❞❡❧❧❡❞ ✐♥ ▲❯▼❆ r❡❝❡✐✈❡ ❛ ✢♦✇ ♦❢ ❜✐✲
❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ ✇❛② s♣❡❝✐✜❝ t♦ ❡✈❡r② ❛❣❡♥t✳ ❚❤❡
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ r❡❝❡✐✈❡❞ ❜② ❛❣❡♥ts ✐s ✉s❡❞ t♦ ♠❛❦❡ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ✭❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦
❡❛❝❤ ❛❣❡♥t✬s s✉❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛t✐♦♥s✮✳ ❋ ♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥✱ ❛❣❡♥ts
s❡♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t t♦ ❜✉② ♦r s❡❧❧ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡ts ✭s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✺✳✶ ✮✳ ❆❢t❡r ❛
s❤♦rt ♣❡r✐♦❞ ♦❢ t✐♠❡✱ ❞✉r✐♥❣ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛❧❧ ❛❣❡♥ts ❤❛✈❡ t❤❡ ❝❤❛♥❝❡ t♦ s❡♥❞ t❤❡✐r ♦r❞❡rs t♦
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t✱ t❤❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ❡♥❞s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❞✐s❝♦✈❡r❡❞✳ ❚❤✐s
♣r♦❝❡ss ❧❛sts ❢♦r ❛ ♣r❡❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡❞ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ r♦✉♥❞s ✭✉♥❦♥♦✇♥ t♦ ❛❣❡♥ts✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡
r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ s❡r✐❡s ✭♣r✐❝❡✱ r❡t✉r♥s✱ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t②✮ ❛r❡ ❛♥❛❧②s❡❞✳
❆❣❡♥ts st❛rt ❛ tr❛❞✐♥❣ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❝✉st♦♠✐③❛❜❧❡ ❛♠♦✉♥t ♦❢ ❝❛s❤✱ ♥✉♠❜❡r
♦❢ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡ts✱ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❜✐❛s✐♥❣ ♣r♦♣❡rt✐❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ♠❡t❤♦❞s✳
❆❧❧ ❛❣❡♥ts ✐♥ ▲❯▼❆ ❤❛✈❡ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s t❤❛t ❞♦ ♥♦t ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❝♦✉rs❡ ♦❢ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡
s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✭❡①♣❡❝t ❢♦r t❤❡✐r ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ ❝❛s❤ ❛♥❞ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡ts✮✳ ❚❤✐s ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❞♦ ♥♦t ❛❝t✐✈❡❧② ❛❞❛♣t ✭❧❡❛r♥✮ t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❆❧t❤♦✉❣❤ ✐t ✐s tr✉❡ t❤❛t
♥♦ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❝❤❛♥❣❡s str❛t❡❣② ✭♦r ♦t❤❡r ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✮ ❞✉r✐♥❣ ❛ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥✱
✇❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❛t ❛ ❢♦r♠ ♦❢ ✧❉❛r✇✐♥✐❛♥ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥✧ t❛❦❡s ♣❧❛❝❡✳ ❯♥❞❡r♣❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❧♦s❡ t❤❡✐r ❝❛s❤ t♦ ❜❡tt❡r ♣❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭s❡❡ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✮✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t
❝❤❛♣t❡rs ✇❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ✐♥ ❞❡t❛✐❧ ❡✈❡r② ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t ♦❢ t❤❡ ▲❯▼❆ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ❛♥❞ ✇❡

✺✳✷✳ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✽✶
❝♦♥❝❧✉❞❡ ❜ ② s❤♦ ✇✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts ♦❢ ❛ ❢❡✇ ❜❛s✐❝s t❡st ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t✳
✺✳✷ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
❆ ❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ t❤❡ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ♠♦ ❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥✱ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ✐s ❞❡✜♥❡❞
❛s t❤❡ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t❡❞ s✉♠ ♦❢ ❛❧❧ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣❛ ②♠❡♥ ts t❤❛t ❛r❡ r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✳ ❚ ♦
❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤✐s ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ♠ ✉st ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡s❡
❢✉t✉r❡ ♣❛ ②♠❡♥ ts✱ t❤❡✐r ❛♠♦✉♥ ts ❛♥❞ ❞❛t❡s ♦❢ ❛rr✐✈ ❛❧s✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ♠ ✉st
❛❧s♦ ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t r❛t❡s ❢♦r ❡❛❝ ❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤ ✢♦ ✇s✳ ❚ ♦ s✐♠♣❧✐❢②
t❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠✱ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t✐♥❣ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❢❡❛t✉r❡s ♦r r❡❞✉❝✐♥❣ t❤❡
♠♦ ❞❡❧✬s ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛❜✐❧✐t ② ✱ ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✱ ❛ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②✬s st♦ ❝ ❦✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ♣❛ ②s
♥♦ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s✳ ❚❤ ✉s✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ♦♥❧② ♠❛❦ ❡ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ❣❛✐♥s ❛♥❞ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ ♣✐❡❝❡
♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r ❛♥❞✴♦r ♣r❡❞✐❝t ✲ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❙✐♥❝❡ t❤❡ ❝❛s❤
♦ ✇♥❡❞ ❜ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦ ❡s♥✬t ♦✛❡r ❛♥ ② r❡t✉r♥✱ ✐t ✐s ✬r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✬ ❢♦r t❤❡♠ t♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st ❛❧❧ ♦❢
t❤❡✐r ❝❛s❤ ✐♥ t❤❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t ✭♦❢ ❝♦✉rs❡✱ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡② ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ✐t ✐s ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡✮✳ ❆♥❞ ✐♥
♦r❞❡r t♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✱ ❛❣❡♥ ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t♦ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r ❤♦ ✇ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ❤❛s
❡✈ ♦❧✈ ❡❞✳ ❚❤❡② ❞♦ t❤✐s ❜ ② ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t✐♥❣✱ ✈✐❛ t❤❡✐r ♦ ✇♥ ♣ ❡rs♦♥❛❧ ❜✐❛s❡s✱ ❛♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠✳ ❲ ❡ ❝❛❧❧ t❤✐s str❡❛♠ ♦❢ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✳
❚❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❤❛s ❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞ ✐t ✐s ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡❞✱
❢♦r ❡❛❝ ❤ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥✱ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠ ✉❧❛ ❜ ❡❧♦ ✇ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ t ✇ ♦ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs t❤❛t
❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧✬s r❡t✉r♥ ❛♥❞ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥✿
Vt=Vt−1∗eN(µV,σV),∀t >0 ❛♥❞V0=M=P0 ✭✺✳✶✮
✇❤❡r❡M ✐s t❤❡ st❛rt✐♥❣ șP❖ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ st♦ ❝ ❦✱ µV ✐s t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ r❡t✉r♥ ❛♥❞ σV
t❤❡ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧✬s r❡t✉r♥ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ❛♥❞ Po ✐s t❤❡ ✜rst ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♣r✐❝❡ ✭✜①❡❞ ❡①♦❣❡♥♦✉s❧② s✐♠✐❧❛r❧② t♦ ❛♥ șP❖ ♣r✐❝✐♥❣✮✳
❚❤✐s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐s✱ ❧✐❦ ❡ ✐♥ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱ ♥♦t ✈✐s✐❜❧❡ t♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❲ ❡
s❛ ② t❤❛t t❤✐s ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐s ♥♦t ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛❜❧❡ ❛t ❧❡❛st ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ s❤❡❡r ❝♦♠♣❧❡①✐t ② ♦❢
❛ ❧✐st❡❞ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s t❤❡ ❣r❡❛t ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ r❡♠♦t❡ ❡♥ t✐t✐❡s✴❡✈ ❡♥ ts t❤❛t ❝❛♥
❛✛❡❝t✱ ✐♥ ❡✈ ❡r② ♠♦♠❡♥ t✱ t❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ② ✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ✐♥ ❝♦♠♣✉t✐♥❣ t❤✐s
❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ s✐♠♣❧✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ♠❛❞❡ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ r❡♥❞❡r
t❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ str❡❛♠ ♥♦t ❞✐r❡❝t❧② ✈✐s✐❜❧❡ t♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❚❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts t❤❛t
♣r❡❢❡r ♥♦t ❡✈ ❡♥ t♦ s❡❡❦ t❤✐s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ ♦♥❧② t♦ ♣❧❛ ② ✬t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✬✳
❨ ❡t ❢♦r ♦t❤❡r ❛❣❡♥ ts✱ t❤❛t ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡s s❤♦✉❧❞ r❡✢❡❝t t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✱
❛ str❡❛♠ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ♥❡❡❞❡❞✳
❲ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❝ ❤♦s❡♥ ❛♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠✱ It ✱ t❤❛t ♦✛❡rs ❛ s✐❣♥❛❧ ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ✬❞✐s✲
t❛♥❝❡✬ ✭✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡ t❡r♠s✮ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ❛t t❤❡ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ ❛
tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❛t t❤❡ ❜ ❡❣✐♥♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✿
It=Vt+1−Pt ✭✺✳✷✮

✽✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺✳ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮
❙✐♥❝❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs tr② ✱ ❛t ❧❡❛st ✐♥ t❤❡♦r② ✱ t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ✬r❡❛❧✬ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛ st♦ ❝ ❦ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥
s❛ ② t❤❛tPt r❡♣r❡s❡♥ ts t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✬s ❡st✐♠❛t❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛t t✐♠❡
t✳ ❲ ❡ ❝❛♥ r❡✇r✐t❡ ❢♦r♠ ✉❧❛ ✺✳✷ ❛s✿
It=Vt+1−Em,t(Vt) ✭✺✳✸✮
✇❤❡r❡Em,t st❛♥❞s ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✬s ✭♠✮ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ ❛t t✐♠❡ t✱ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥✲
❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ❛t t✐♠❡ t✳ ▲♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ❛t ✺✳✷ ✇ ❡ s❛ ② t❤❛t t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ r❡❢❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ❛♠♦✉♥ t ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❢r♦♠ t✐♠❡ t t♦
t✰✶✳ ș♥ ♦t❤❡r ✇ ♦r❞s✱ t❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ r❡❢❡rs t♦ ❤♦ ✇ ♠ ✉❝ ❤ t❤❡ r❡❛❧ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
❤❛s ❡✈ ♦❧✈ ❡❞ ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✬s ❧❛t❡st ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳
ș♥ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱ ✺✳✹ ❧♦ ♦❦s ♠♦r❡ ❧✐❦ ❡
It=Ea,t(Vt+1)−Em,t(Vt) ✭✺✳✹✮
✇❤❡r❡Ea,t r❡♣r❡s❡♥ ts t❤❡ ❜ ❡st ❝♦♠ ❜✐♥❡❞ ❡st✐♠❛t❡s ♦❢ ❛♥❛❧②sts✱ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐sts✱ ❡t❝✳ ♦❢
t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥ ②✬s ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ș♥ r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♦♥❧② ❡st✐♠❛t❡s ♦❢ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❡✐t❤❡r ♠❛r❦ ❡t✲❜❛s❡❞ ✭t❤r♦✉❣❤ ♣r✐❝❡✮ ♦r ♥♦♥✲♠❛r❦ ❡t✲❜❛s❡❞ ✭❛♥❛❧②st✱
r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ❛♥❞ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ♦♣✐♥✐♦♥s✮✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ s✉❝ ❤ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ♥♦t
✈ ❡r② ✉s❡❢✉❧ ✐♥ ✐ts❡❧❢ ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❝ ❤♦s❡♥ t♦ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠ r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡❞ ❜ ②
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛s ❛ s❡r✐❡s ♦❢ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡s s✐❣♥❛❧s r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✳
Period 0M=Vo
Period tVtVt+1
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✺✳✷✿ ❚ r❛❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ❛♥❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✢♦ ✇s
❆ t t❤❡ ❜ ❡❣✐♥♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❛ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ t t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ♠♦ ✈ ❡s
✐♥st❛♥ t❧② ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ Vt t♦Vt+1 ✳ ❆❣❡♥ ts ❝❛♥ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❧❛t❡st ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ Pt

✺✳✷✳ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✽✸
❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ It t❤❛t t❡❧❧s t❤❡♠ ❤♦ ✇ ❝❧♦s❡✴❢❛r ✐s t❤✐s ❧❛t❡st ♠❛r❦ ❡t
❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭P t✮ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t Vt+1 ✳ ❉✉r✐♥❣ t❤✐s
tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ t✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t x ✇✐❧❧ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t ✭t❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡✐r ♦ ✇♥ ♣ ❡rs♦♥❛❧ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s✮ t❤❡
❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭ It,x ✮ ❛♥❞ ✉s❡ ❤✐s ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t str❛t❡❣✐❡s t♦ s❡♥❞
♦r❞❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❆ t t❤❡ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✱ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✱ Pt+1 ✱ s❤♦✉❧❞
✐♥ t❤❡♦r② ❜ ❡ ❡q✉❛❧ ✭♦r ✈ ❡r② ❝❧♦s❡✮ t♦ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ Vt+1 ✳ șt
✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t t♦ ✉♥❞❡r❧✐♥❡ t❤❛t ❛t t❤❡ ❜ ❡❣✐♥♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ t✱ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ✐♥st❛♥ t❧② ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡s ❢r♦♠ Vt t♦Vt+1 ✳ ❖♥❧② ❛❢t❡r t❤✐s ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ♦ ❝❝✉rs t❤❡
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠ It✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ❞✉r✐♥❣ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ t
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐❧❧ tr② t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ❛ss❡t✬s ✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ Vt+1 ✳
▲♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ❛t t❤❡ str✉❝t✉r❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ s✐❣♥❛❧✱ ✐t ✐s ❡❛s② t♦ s❡❡ t❤❛t ❛♥
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝❛♥ s✐♠♣❧② ❛❞❞ t❤❡ s✐❣♥❛❧ It t♦ t❤❡ ❧❛st ❦♥♦ ✇♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ Pt ❛♥❞ ♦❜t❛✐♥ t❤❡
♥❡✇ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ Vt+1 ✳ ❲❤✐❧❡ t❤✐s ✐s tr✉❡✱ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ✐♥ ♣s②❝ ❤♦❧♦❣② ❤❛s s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞
t❤❛t ❤ ✉♠❛♥s ❝❛♥ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ✈ ❡r② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♣ ❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♦❜ ❥❡❝ts✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ t❤❡
s❛♠❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠ It ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ♣ ❡r ❝ ❡✐✈❡ ❞ ✭♦r ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❡❞✮ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t❧② ❜ ② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t
❛❣❡♥ ts✳ ❲ ❡ r❡❢❡r t♦ ❛♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ It<0 ✱ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t✐♥❣ ❛ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡ ✐♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ ❛s ✬❜❛❞ ♥❡✇s✬ ❛♥❞ s✐♠✐❧❛r❧② ❛♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ It>0 ✱ s❤♦ ✇✐♥❣ ❛♥ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ✐♥
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❧❛st ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✱ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ r❡❢❡rr❡❞ ❛s ✬❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♥❡✇s✬✳
❚ ♦ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❜ ❡tt❡r t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠ t❤❛t ❛❣❡♥ ts r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡ ✇ ❡ s❤♦ ✇ ✐♥
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✺✳✸ t❤❡ ❝♦✲❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥✳ ❲ ❡ s❡❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t st❛rts ❛t t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ ❛❢t❡r✇ ❛r❞s ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇s t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♠♦r❡ ♦r ❧❡ss ❝❧♦s❡❧② ✳

✽✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺✳ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮
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❋✐❣✉r❡ ✺✳✸✿ ❋ ✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r✲
♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠
❖✉r ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❛ss❡t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❡♥❛❜❧❡s ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t♦ ❢♦❝✉s ♦♥❧② ♦♥ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥✲
t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✳ ❖❢ ❝♦✉rs❡✱ ❧✐❦❡ ✐♥ ❛♥② ♠♦❞❡❧✱ t❤✐s ✐s ❛ s✐♠♣❧✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤✐❝❤
✐s r❛r❡❧② ❢♦✉♥❞ ✐♥ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✇❤❡r❡ ❛ss❡ts ❛♥❞ ❛ss❡t ❝❧❛ss❡s ❛r❡ ✐♥t❡r❧✐♥❦❡❞ ❛♥❞
t❤❡✐r ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❞❡♣❡♥❞s ♦♥ ♠✉❝❤ ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✇❡
s✉♣♣♦s❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠ ❛✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡✱ t❤❡ tr❛❞❡❞ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ ❡♥❝❛♣s✉❧❛t❡s ♥♦t❡ ♦♥❧② ❛ss❡t✲s♣❡❝✐✜❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❜✉t ❛❧s♦ ♠❛❝r♦✲❡♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳
❚❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ♦❜❥❡ ❝t✐✈❡ ♦❢ ♦✉r st✉❞② ✐s ❢♦ ❝✉s❡ ❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ ✇❛②s ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛✲
t✐♦♥✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡s t❤❡ ✈❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✱ ✐s ❝ ♦♥✈❡rt❡ ❞ ❛♥❞ tr ❛♥s❢♦r♠❡ ❞✱ t❤r ♦✉❣❤
t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❝✐s✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ❛❣❡♥ts✱ ✐♥t♦ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝ ❡✳
✺✳✸ ❖r❞❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠
✺✳✸✳✶ ❖r❞❡rs
❉✉r✐♥❣ ❛ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣❡r✐♦❞✱ ❛❣❡♥ts ✉s❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ s❡♥❞ ❧✐♠✐t ♦r ♠❛r❦❡t
♦r❞❡rs t♦ t❤❡ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡ st♦r❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦ ✉♥t✐❧ t❤❡
❡♥❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞✳ ❆t t❤❡ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ ❛ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣❡r✐♦❞✱ t❤❡ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦ ✐s ❝❧♦s❡❞ ❛♥❞
t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐s❝♦✈❡r② ♣r♦❝❡ss ❜❡❣✐♥s✳ ❆s ♣♦✐♥t❡❞ ♦✉t ❜② ❇❧❛❦❡ ▲❡❇❛r♦♥ ✐♥ ✭ ❚ ❡s❢❛ts✐♦♥ ✱
✷✵✵✻❛ ✮t❤❡ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡s t❤❡ ♠♦st r❡❛❧✐st✐❝ ♠❡t❤♦❞ ❢♦r ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳

✺✳✸✳ ❖r❞❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✽✺
❲ ❡ ✜rst ♣r❡s❡♥t t❤❡ str✉❝t✉r❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ♦r❞❡r ❛♥❞ t❤❡♥ s❤♦✇ ❤♦✇ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s
❞✐s❝♦✈❡r❡❞ ❢r♦♠ ❛ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦✳
❆❢t❡r r❡❝❡✐✈✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❛♥❛❧②s✐♥❣ ♥❡✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ❛❣❡♥ts s❡♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❆♥ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ♦r❞❡r ❤❛s ❢♦✉r ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❧✐❦❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ t❛❜❧❡ ❜❡❧♦✇✿
❚❤❡ ✜rst ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r✱ ❆❣❡♥ t ș❉ ✱ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ts ❛♥ ✐❞❡♥t✐✜❡r t❤❛t ✉♥✐q✉❡❧② ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡s
❡❛❝❤ ❛❣❡♥t✳ ❯s✐♥❣ t❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❝❛♥ r❡s♦❧✈❡ ♠❛t❝❤✐♥❣ ♦r❞❡rs ❛♥❞
♠❛❦❡s t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t tr❛♥s❢❡rs ♦❢ ❝❛s❤ ❛♥❞ ❛ss❡ts ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❝♦✉♥t❡r♣❛rts ♦❢ ❛ tr❛♥s✲
❛❝t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤❡ s❡❝♦♥❞ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r✱ ❉✐r❡❝t✐♦♥ ✱ s✐❣♥❛❧s ✇❤❡t❤❡r ❛❣❡♥t ✇❛♥ts t♦ ❜✉② ♦r
s❡❧❧ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❚❤✐s ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ✐s ❛❧s♦ r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥t ❢♦r t❤❡ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ t❤✐r❞ ✭❛♥❞
❢♦✉rt❤ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r✮ t❤❛t ❤❛s ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣s ❞❡♣❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ t❤❡ ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡
♦r❞❡r✳ ❚❤❡ t❤✐r❞ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r✱ ◆✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts ✱ ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡s t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❞❡s✐r❡❞
♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t ✭✐❞❡♥t✐✜❡❞ ❜② ❆❣❡♥t ș❉✮ ✐s ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ ❜✉② ♦r s❡❧❧✳ ❚❤✐s
✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t ✐♥✈♦❧✈❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ ❤❛✈❡ ❤✐s ♦r❞❡r ❡①❡❝✉t❡❞ ✇✐t❤
t❤❡ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ ♦❢ ❛t ♠♦st t❤✐s ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts ♦r ♦❢ ❛ s♠❛❧❧❡r ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❋ ♦r
❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ș❉ ✸✱ s❡❡ ✱ ✇❛♥ts t♦ ❜✉② ✶✵ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❚❤✐s ♦r❞❡r ❝❛♥ ❜❡
❡①❡❝✉t❡❞ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t r❡❝❡✐✈✐♥❣ ✶✱ ✷✱ ✸ ✉♣ t♦ ✶✵ ❛ss❡ts✳
❚❤❡ ❢♦✉rt❤ ❛♥❞ ❧❛st ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r✱ ▼❛①✴▼✐♥ ❛♠♦✉♥ t ✱ ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡s t❤❡ ♠❛①✐✲
♠✉♠✴♠✐♥✐♠✉♠ ♣r✐❝❡ ❛t ✇❤✐❝❤ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t ✐s ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ ❜✉②✴s❡❧❧ ❛ss❡ts✳ ▲♦♦❦✐♥❣ ❛t
t❤❡ ♦r❞❡r ❧✐st❡❞ ✐♥ ✇❡ s❡❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t ✇✐t❤ ș❉ ✺ ✐s ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ s❡❧❧ ✶✺ ❛ss❡ts ❢r♦♠
❤✐s ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❛t ❛ ♠✐♥✐♠✉♠ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ ✽ ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ❛ss❡t✳ ș❢ t❤❡ ♦r❞❡r ✐s ❡①❡❝✉t❡❞✱ t❤❡
❛❣❡♥t ✐s ❣✉❛r❛♥t❡❡❞ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❛t ❧❡❛st ✽ ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ❛ss❡t s♦❧❞✳
ș♥ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✱ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ♥♦✇ ♥✉♠❡r♦✉s ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t✐❡s t♦ ❝✉st♦♠✐③❡ t❤❡✐r
♦r❞❡rs ❧✐❦❡✿
✶✳ ❚ r✐❣❣❡r ♦r❞❡rs ✲ ❛t ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ❛ ♥❡✇ ♦r❞❡r ✐s ❝r❡❛t❡❞ t♦ ❜✉②✴s❡❧❧ ❛ss❡ts
❛t t❤❡ ❜❡st ♣r✐❝❡ ♣♦ss✐❜❧❡✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡ ✉s❡❞ t♦ ❧✐♠✐t ❧♦ss❡s ❛♥❞ t♦ ❝❛s❤ ✐♥
♦♥ ❣❛✐♥s✱ q✉✐❝❦❧② ❛♥❞ s❛❢❡❧② ✳
✷✳ ◗✉❛♥ t✐t ② ♦r❞❡rs ✲ t❤❡② ❛r❡ s✐♠✐❧❛r t♦ ♦✉r ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡② ❤❛✈❡ ❛ q✉❛♥✲
t✐t② r❡str✐❝t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❢♦r❝❡s t❤❡ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ❜❡ ❡①❡❝✉t❡❞ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❡♥t✐r❡ s♣❡❝✐✜❡❞
q✉❛♥t✐t② ✭❜✉②✴s❡❧❧ ❛❧❧ ♦r ❝❛♥❝❡❧ t❤❡ ♦r❞❡r✮✳
✸✳ ❙tr❛t❡❣✐❝ ♦r❞❡rs ✲ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ♦r❞❡rs ❧✐❦❡✿ ❜✉② ♦r s❡❧❧ ✇❤❡♥ ♣r✐❝❡
❣♦❡s ✉♣ ①✪✱ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❡ ♦r❞❡rs t❤❛t s♣❡❝✐❢② ❜✉②✐♥❣ ❛t ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦r s❡❧❧✐♥❣
❛t ❛♥♦t❤❡r ♣r✐❝❡ ✭❛♥❞ ♦♥❧② ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ♦r❞❡rs ✐s ❡①❡❝✉t❡❞✮✳
❚❤❡s❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① ♦r❞❡rs ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❛❝❤✐❡✈❡❞ t❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t s✐♠✲
♣❧❡ ♦r❞❡rs✳ ❚❤❡② ❛r❡ ❝♦♥❝❡✐✈❡❞ t♦ ❛❞❞r❡ss s♣❡❝✐✜❝ ♥❡❡❞s ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ❢♦❝✉s❡❞
❆❣❡♥t ș❉ ❉✐r❡❝t✐♦♥ ◆✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts ▼❛①✴▼✐♥ ❆♠♦✉♥t
✸ ❇✉② ✶✵ ✼✳✺
✺ ❙❡❧❧ ✶✺ ✽
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✶✿ ❚❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥ts ♦❢ ❛ ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡r

✽✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺✳ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮
♦♥ ✐♥ tr❛✲❞❛ ② tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♦♣ ❡r❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❉✉❡ t♦ t❤❡ ♥❛t✉r❡ ♦❢ ♦✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r✱ ❡①tr❛✲❞❛ ②
tr❛❞✐♥❣✱ t❤❡ ♦r❞❡rs ✇ ❡ ✉s❡ ✭❧✐♠✐t ♦r ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦r❞❡rs✮ ❛r❡ s✉✣❝✐❡♥ t t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡ r❡❛❧✐st✐❝
♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s✳
✺✳✸✳✷ Pr✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠
❉✉r✐♥❣ ❡❛❝ ❤ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ ❛❣❡♥ ts s❡♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❆❧❧ t❤❡s❡ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡
r❡❝♦r❞❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜ ♦ ♦❦✳ ❆ t t❤❡ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✱ t❤❡ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r
❜ ♦ ♦❦ st♦♣s ❛❝❝❡♣t✐♥❣ ♥❡✇ ♦r❞❡rs ❛♥❞ ❛ ♣r♦ ❝❡❞✉r❡ ❢♦r ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ❛ss❡t
♣r✐❝❡ ✐s st❛rt❡❞✳ ❆❢t❡r t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❞✐ss❡♠✐♥❛t❡❞ t♦ ❛❣❡♥ ts✱ ❛❧❧
♠❛t❝ ❤✐♥❣ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡ r❡s♦❧✈ ❡❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ r❡♠❛✐♥✐♥❣ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡ ❞✐s❝❛r❞❡❞✱ ❧❡❛ ✈✐♥❣ t❤❡
❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜ ♦ ♦❦ ♣r❡♣❛r❡❞ ❢♦r ❛ ♥❡✇ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✳
❚❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ❢♦✉r st❡♣ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤✳ ❊✈ ❡r② st❡♣ ❤❛s
❛ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ t♦ ❛❝❝♦♠♣❧✐s❤✳ ❆ t ❡❛❝ ❤ st❡♣ ✇ ❡ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ ❛♠♦♥❣ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡s s❡❧❡❝t❡❞
❛t t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s st❡♣ t❤♦s❡ ♣r✐❝❡s t❤❛t s❛t✐s❢② t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡✳ Pr♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ ❛ st❡♣
♦✛❡rs ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ♦♥❡ ♣r✐❝❡ t❤❛t s❛t✐s✜❡s ✐ts ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ✇ ❡ ✉s❡ t❤✐s ❧✐st ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ❣♦
t♦ t❤❡ ♥❡①t st❡♣✳ ș❢ ✇ ❡ ❛rr✐✈ ❡ ❛t ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ ♣r✐❝❡ q✉♦t❡✱ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ st♦♣s ❛♥❞
t❤✐s s✐♥❣❧❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ✉s❡❞ ❛s t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✳ ș❢ ✇ ❡ r❡❛❝ ❤ t❤❡ ✜♥❛❧ st❡♣ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❤❛ ✈✐♥❣ ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ♦♥❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ ♣r✐❝❡✱ ✇ ❡ ✉s❡ ❛ s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧ ✜①✐♥❣ ♣r♦ ❝❡❞✉r❡
✉s✐♥❣ ❛s r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✳
❆ t t❤❡ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ ❡❛❝ ❤ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ ✇ ❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇✐♥❣
✹ st❡♣s✿
✶✳ ❙t❡♣ ✶ ✇✐❧❧ s❡❧❡❝t ♣r✐❝❡s t❤❛t ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ t❤❡ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ ❡①❡❝✉t❛❜❧❡ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥s✳
❆ t ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✱ t❤❡ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥s ✐s ❣✐✈ ❡♥ ❜ ② t❤❡ ♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥
t❤❡ ❝✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ❜✉② ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧ q✉❛♥ t✐t✐❡s ❞❡♠❛♥❞❡❞✳ ❲ ❡ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠
✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ✇ ❡ s❡❛r❝ ❤ ♣r✐❝❡s t❤❛t ❛❝❝♦♠♣❧✐s❤ t❤✐s ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡✳ ș❢
t❤❡r❡ ✐s ♦♥❧② ♦♥❡ ♣r✐❝❡ t❤❛t ❛❝ ❤✐❡✈ ❡s t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡✱ ✇ ❡ s❡❧❡❝t t❤✐s ♣r✐❝❡
❛s ♦✉r ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r② st♦♣s✳ ș❢ t❤❡r❡ ✐s
♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ♦♥❡ ♣r✐❝❡ t❤❛t ❛❧❧♦ ✇s ❢♦r t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥s
✇ ❡ ❤♦❧❞ t❤✐s ❧✐st ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ♠♦ ✈ ❡ t♦ t❤❡ ♥❡①t st❡♣✳
✷✳ ❙t❡♣ ✷ ✇✐❧❧ s❡❧❡❝t t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡s t❤❛t ♠✐♥✐♠✐③❡ t❤❡ ✉♥✜❧❧❡❞ ♦r ✉♥♠❛t❝ ❤❡❞ q✉❛♥ t✐t✐❡s
❞❡♠❛♥❞❡❞ ❢♦r s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❜✉②✐♥❣✳ ❋ ♦r ❛❧❧ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❛t t❤✐s st❡♣✱ t❤❛t ❛❧❧♦ ✇
❢♦r ❛ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ❡①❡❝✉t❛❜❧❡ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡✱ ✇ ❡ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ ♠✐♥✐♠ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ♦❢ s✉r♣❧✉s✳ ❚❤❡
❧❡✈ ❡❧ ♦❢ s✉r♣❧✉s ✐s t❤❡ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❝✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ❜✉② q✉❛♥ t✐t✐❡s
❛♥❞ ❝✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ s❡❧❧ q✉❛♥ t✐t✐❡s ❛t t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✳ ❯s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠
s✉r♣❧✉s ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ✇ ❡ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡ ♣r✐❝❡s t❤❛t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ s✉r♣❧✉s t❤❛t ✐s ❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❛♥ t❤✐s
♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠✳ ❲ ❡ ❛r❡ ❧❡❢t ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❧✐st ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s t❤❛t ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ ❡①❡❝✉t❛❜❧❡ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡
❛♥❞ ♠✐♥✐♠✐③❡ t❤❡ s✉r♣❧✉s ♦❢ ✉♥r❡s♦❧✈ ❡❞ ♦r❞❡rs✳ ș❢ ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♦♥❧② ♦♥❡ r❡♠❛✐♥✐♥❣
♣r✐❝❡✱ ✇ ❡ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ t❤✐s ♣r✐❝❡ ❛s ♦✉r ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss st♦♣s✳ ș❢
✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ♦♥❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✇ ❡ ♠♦ ✈ ❡ t♦ t❤❡ ♥❡①t st❡♣✳

✺✳✸✳ ❖r❞❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✽✼
✸✳ ❙t❡♣ ✸ ❤❛s t❤❡ ❣♦❛❧ ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ t❤❛t ❛❣r❡❡s ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜✉②✴s❡❧❧
♣r❡ss✉r❡✳ ❚❤❡ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜✉② ♣r❡ss✉r❡✱ ❛t ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✱ ✐s ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡❞ ❜ ②
t❤❡ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ s✐❣♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ s✉r♣❧✉s ♦❢ ♦r❞❡rs✳ ș❢ t❤❡ ❈✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ❇✉② ◗✉❛♥ t✐t ② ✐s
❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ❈✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ❙❡❧❧ ◗✉❛♥ t✐t ② ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ s❛ ② t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡①❡rts
❜✉② ♣r❡ss✉r❡ ❛t t❤✐s ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✳ ❋ ♦r ❡✈ ❡r② r❡♠❛✐♥✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢r♦♠ ❙t❡♣ ✷ ✇ ❡
♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡✐r r❡s♣ ❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r❡ss✉r❡s✳ ș❢ ♦♥❧② ❜✉② ♣r❡ss✉r❡ ❡①✐sts✱ ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣
t❤❛t ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ s✉r♣❧✉s ❛t ❡✈ ❡r② ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✱ ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ s❡❧❡❝t t❤❡ ❤✐❣❤❡st
♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ❛s ♦✉r ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✳ ❙✐♥❝❡ ❛❧❧ t❤✐s r❡s✐❞✉❛❧ ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❢♦r ❜✉②✐♥❣
✇✐❧❧ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✱ ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ s❡❧❡❝t t❤❡ ❤✐❣❤❡st ♣r✐❝❡
❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ♠✐♥✐♠✐③❡ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ❛❢t❡r ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❆❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈ ❡❧② ✱
✐❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r❡ss✉r❡ ✐s ❢♦r s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❛t ❡✈ ❡r② ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✱ ✇ ❡ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ t❤❡ ❧♦ ✇ ❡st
♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ♠✐♥✐♠✐③❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❞r♦♣s ✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ❛❢t❡r t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♣r✐❝❡
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ș❢ ♦♥❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❝ ❤♦s❡♥✱ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r② st♦♣s ❤❡r❡✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ♦❢
t❤❡ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❜ ♦t❤ ❜✉② ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧ ♣r❡ss✉r❡✱ ♦r ✐❢ ❛❧❧ s✉r♣❧✉s ✐s ③❡r♦✱ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥♥♦t
❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ r❡♠❛✐♥✐♥❣ s✉r♣❧✉s❡s ✭✐❢ ❛♥ ②✮ ♦❢ ❜✉②✴s❡❧❧ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡
✐❞❡♥ t✐❝❛❧ ✐♥ ♠❛❣♥✐t✉❞❡ ✭t❤❡② ❛❧❧ s❛t✐s❢② ❙t❡♣ ✷✮ ❛♥❞ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ✐♥ s✐❣♥ ❛♥❞ s♦
❝❛♥ ❜✐❛s t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥ ❛♥ ② ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡ ✇ ❡ ❣♦ t♦ t❤❡ ✜♥❛❧ st❡♣✳
✹✳ ❙t❡♣ ✹ ✇✐❧❧ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡✱ ❛♠♦♥❣ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❢r♦♠ ❙t❡♣ ✸✱ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ t❤❛t ✐s ❝❧♦s❡st t♦ t❤❡
r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡ ♣r✐❝❡✳ ș♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✇❤❡r❡ ✐♥ tr❛❞❛ ② tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♦ ❝❝✉rs t❤❡ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡ ♣r✐❝❡
✐s t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❧❛st ✐♥ tr❛❞❛ ② tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥✳ ❲ ❡ ✉s❡ ❛s r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡ ♣r✐❝❡ t❤❡ ❧❛st
♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✱ ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ Pt✳ ◆❡①t✱ ✇ ❡ ♥❛rr♦ ✇
t❤❡ ❧✐st ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❥✉st ♦♥❧② t ✇ ♦ ♣r✐❝❡s✱ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡s❡ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❧❡s ✿
✶✳ ș❢ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❢r♦♠ ❙t❡♣ ✸ s❤♦ ✇ ❛ s✉r♣❧✉s ♦❢ ③❡r♦✱ ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❤♦❧❞ t❤❡ ♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠
❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❧✐st ♦❢ ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ♣r✐❝❡s✳
✷✳ ș❢ ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ❛ ♠✐① ♦❢ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈ ❡ ♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠ s✉r♣❧✉s❡s✱ ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❤♦❧❞
t❤❡ t ✇ ♦ ♣r✐❝❡s t❤❛t ♠❛r❦ t❤❡ ❝ ❤❛♥❣✐♥❣ ✐♥ s✐❣♥✳ ❆ t t❤✐s ♣ ♦✐♥ t ✐♥ ❙t❡♣ ✹ ✇ ❡ ❛r❡
❧❡❢t ✇✐t❤ ♦♥❧② t ✇ ♦ ♣r✐❝❡s P1 ❛♥❞P2 ✭✇ ❡ ❛ss✉♠❡ P1> P2 ✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡
♣r✐❝❡Pt✳ ❲ ❡ s❡❧❡❝t t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ Pt+1 ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥
Pt+1=

P1:Pt≥P1
P2:Pt≤P2
Pt:Pt∈[P1,P2]✭✺✳✺✮
❚❤✐s ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❡♥s✉r❡s t❤❡ ❜ ❡st ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r ❡✈ ❡r② ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ t ❜ ②
♠❛①✐♠✐③✐♥❣ ❡①❝ ❤❛♥❣❡❞ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ❛♥❞ ❛ ✈ ♦✐❞✐♥❣ t♦ ✐♥❝♦r♣ ♦r❛t❡ ♥❡✇ ❜✐❛s❡s ✐♥ t♦ t❤❡ ♥❡✇
♣r✐❝❡Pt+1 ✳
❆❢t❡r ❝♦♠♣✉t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✱ t❤❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r r❡s♦❧✈ ❡s ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ♦r❞❡rs ✐♥
t❤❡ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜ ♦ ♦❦ ❛t t❤✐s ♥❡✇ ♣r✐❝❡✳ ❆❢t❡r ❛❧❧ ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ r❡s♦❧✈ ❡❞
❛ ♥❡✇ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡❣✐♥✳ ❚ ♦ ❜ ❡tt❡r ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❤♦ ✇ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r❡❞ ✇ ❡
✇✐❧❧ ❣♦ t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✳ ș♥ ✺✳✷ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ s❡❡ ❛♥ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ♦❢ ❛ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r
❜ ♦ ♦❦✳

✽✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺✳ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮
❆❣❡♥t ș❉ ❉✐r❡❝t✐♦♥ ◆✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts ▼❛①✴▼✐♥ ❛♠♦✉♥t
✸ ❇✉② ✶✵ ✶✷
✹ ❇✉② ✼ ✶✶✳✺
✶ ❙❡❧❧ ✶✺ ✶✶
✷ ❙❡❧❧ ✼ ✶✸
✺ ❇✉② ✺ ✶✷✳✺
✻ ❙❡❧❧ ✶✺ ✶✶✳✼✺
✾ ❇✉② ✹ ✶✹
✶✵ ❙❡❧❧ ✹ ✶✵
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✷✿ ❊①❛♠♣❧❡ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦
❆❣❡♥ts ❤❛✈❡ s❡♥t ✽ ♦r❞❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❚❤❡ ❜❡st ❜✉②✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ✶✹✱ ❢♦r ✹
❛ss❡ts✱ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❜❡st s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ✶✵ ❛❧s♦ ❢♦r ✹ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❋ ♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✜rst st❡♣ ✐♥
t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠ ✇❡ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ ❜✉②✴s❡❧❧ q✉❛♥t✐t✐❡s ❛t ❡❛❝❤ ❞✐st✐♥❝t
♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡♥ ✇❡ ❞✐s❝♦✈❡r t❤❡ ❝✉♠✉❧❛t✐✈❡ ❜✉② ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧ q✉❛♥t✐t✐❡s✳
❇❯❨ ❙❊▲▲
❈✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡
❇✉②
◗✉❛♥✲
t✐t ②❇✉② q✉❛♥✲
t✐t② ❛t ♣r✐❝❡✜r✐❝❡ ❙❡❧❧ q✉❛♥✲
t✐t② ❛t
♣r✐❝❡❈✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡
❙❡❧❧ ◗✉❛♥✲
t✐t ②
✺ ✺ ✶✷✳✺ ✵ ✹✶
✶✷ ✼ ✶✶✳✺ ✵ ✹✶
✶✷ ✵ ✶✺ ✵ ✹✶
✶✻ ✹ ✶✹ ✵ ✹✶
✶✻ ✵ ✶✸ ✼ ✹✶
✷✻ ✶✵ ✶✷ ✵ ✸✹
✷✻ ✵ ✶✶✱✼✺ ✶✺ ✸✹
✷✻ ✵ ✶✶ ✶✺ ✶✾
✷✻ ✵ ✶✵ ✹ ✹
✷✻ ✵ ✼ ✵ ✵
✷✻ ✵ ✺ ✵ ✵
✷✻ ✵ ✹ ✵ ✵
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✸✿ ▼❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ✲ ❝♦♠♣✉t✐♥❣ ❝✉♠✉❧❛t✐✈❡ q✉❛♥t✐t✐❡s ❛t ❛❧❧ ♣r✐❝❡
❧❡✈❡❧s
❆s ✇❡ ❝❛♥ s❡❡ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✸ ✱ ♠♦st ❛ss❡ts ❝❛♥ ❜❡ s♦❧❞ ❛t ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❛t ❧❡❛st ✶✸
❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠♦st ❛ss❡ts ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❜♦✉❣❤t ❢♦r ❛ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ ✶✷✳ ❲ ❡ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡
♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❡①❡❝✉t❛❜❧❡ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈❡❧✱ ❛s ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡❞ ✐♥ ❙t❡♣ ✶ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❝❡❞✉r❡✳ ❚❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❡①❡❝✉t❛❜❧❡ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡s t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢
❛ss❡ts t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡❞ ❛❢t❡r ❞✐s❝♦✈❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝❡✳

✺✳✸✳ ❖r❞❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ ✽✾
❇❯❨ ❙❊▲▲
❈✉♠✉❧❛t✐✈❡
❇✉② ◗✉❛♥✲
t✐t②Pr✐❝❡ ❈✉♠✉❧❛t✐✈❡
❙❡❧❧
◗✉❛♥✲
t✐t②▼❛①✲
✐♠ ✉♠
❱ ♦❧✉♠❡
✺ ✶✷✳✺ ✹✶ ✺
✶✷ ✶✶✳✺ ✹✶ ✶✷
✶✷ ✶✺ ✹✶ ✶✷
✶✻ ✶✹ ✹✶ ✶✻
✶✻ ✶✸ ✹✶ ✶✻
✷✻ ✶✷ ✸✹ ✷✻
✷✻ ✶✶✱✼✺ ✸✹ ✷✻
✷✻ ✶✶ ✶✾ ✶✾
✷✻ ✶✵ ✹ ✹
✷✻ ✼ ✵ ✵
✷✻ ✺ ✵ ✵
✷✻ ✹ ✵ ✵
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✹✿ ❙t❡♣ ♦♥❡ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ✲ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ❝r✐t❡r✐❛
❚❤❡ r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡s✱ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✹ ✱ ❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ❝r✐t❡r✐❛
❛r❡ ✶✶✳✼✺ ❛♥❞ ✶✷✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ✇❡ ❝❛♥♥♦t ♠❛❦❡ ❛♥ ✉♥❜✐❛s❡❞ ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡s❡ t✇♦
♣r✐❝❡s ✇❡ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❡ ✇✐t❤ ❙t❡♣ ✷✳ ș♥ t❤✐s st❡♣ ✇❡ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ ♠✐♥✐♠✉♠ s✉r♣❧✉s✱
♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts t❤❛t ✇✐❧❧ ♥♦t ❜❡ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡❞✱ ❛t ❡✈❡r② ❞✐st✐♥❝t ♣r✐❝❡
❧❡✈❡❧✳

✾✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺✳ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮
❇❯❨ ❙❊▲▲
❈✉♠✉❧❛t✐✈❡
❇✉② ◗✉❛♥✲
t✐t②❣r✐❝❡ ❈✉♠✉❧❛t✐✈❡
❙❡❧❧ ◗✉❛♥✲
t✐t②▼❛①✐♠✉♠
❱ ♦❧✉♠❡▼✐♥✐♠ ✉♠
s✉r♣❧✉s
✺ ✶✷✳✺ ✹✶ ✺ ✲✸✻
✶✷ ✶✶✳✺ ✹✶ ✶✷ ✲✷✾
✶✷ ✶✺ ✹✶ ✶✷ ✲✷✾
✶✻ ✶✹ ✹✶ ✶✻ ✲✷✺
✶✻ ✶✸ ✹✶ ✶✻ ✲✷✺
✷✻ ✶✷ ✸✹ ✷✻ ✲✽
✷✻ ✶✶✱✼✺ ✸✹ ✷✻ ✲✽
✷✻ ✶✶ ✶✾ ✶✾ ✼
✷✻ ✶✵ ✹ ✹ ✷✷
✷✻ ✼ ✵ ✵ ✷✻
✷✻ ✺ ✵ ✵ ✷✻
✷✻ ✹ ✵ ✵ ✷✻
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✺✿ ❙t❡♣ t✇♦ ❛♥❞ t❤r❡❡ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ✲ ♠✐♥✐♠✉♠ s✉r♣❧✉s ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡t
♣r❡ss✉r❡
❆❢t❡r ❝♦♠♣✉t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ s✉r♣❧✉s✱ ❛s ❝❛♥ ❜❡ s❡❡♥ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✺ ✱ ✇❡ st✐❧❧
❝❛♥♥♦t ❞✐s❝r✐♠✐♥❛t❡ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ t✇♦ r❡♠❛✐♥✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡ ❝❤♦✐❝❡s ✭✶✶✳✼✺ ❛♥❞ ✶✷✮ ❜❡❝❛✉s❡
t❤❡s❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❤❛✈❡ ❜♦t❤ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♠✐♥✐♠✉♠ s✉r♣❧✉s ❧❡✈❡❧ ✭✽ ❛ss❡ts r❡♠❛✐♥ ✉♥tr❛❞❡❞✮✳
❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✇❡ ♠♦✈❡ ♦♥ t♦ ❙t❡♣ ✸ ✇❤❡r❡ ✇❡ ❧♦♦❦ ❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r❡ss✉r❡✳ ❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡
t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r❡ss✉r❡ ❢♦r ❜♦t❤ ♣r✐❝❡ ❝❤♦✐❝❡s ✐s ❢♦r s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ✭❛t t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈❡❧s
✶✶✳✼✺ ❛♥❞ ✶✷ ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ ✽ ♠♦r❡ ❛ss❡ts t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❛✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❢♦r s❡❧❧✐♥❣ t❤❛♥ ❢♦r ❜✉②✐♥❣✮✳
❆❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠ ✇❡ ❝❤♦♦s❡ t❤❡ ❧♦✇❡st ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡
♣r✐❝❡s ✭✶✶✳✼✺✮ t❤✉s ❡♥s✉r✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❜❡st ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❧❡❛st ❜✐❛s ❢♦r t❤❡ ♥❡①t tr❛❞✐♥❣
♣❡r✐♦❞✳ ❚❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♣r✐❝❡✱ ✶✶✳✼✺✱ ♥♦✇ s❡r✈❡s ❛s ❛ ❜❛s✐s ❢♦r t❤❡ ❡①❡❝✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❧❧ ❝♦♠♣❛t✐❜❧❡
♦r❞❡rs✳ ❚❤❡ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡ ✜❧❧❡❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡s ❛r❡ ❧✐st❡❞ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✻ ✳

✺✳✹✳ ❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts✱ t❤❡✐r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ✾✶
❆❣❡♥ t
ș❉❖♣ ❡r❛t✐♦♥ ◗✉❛♥ t✐t ②
❡①❝ ❤❛♥❣❡❞❈❛s❤
r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡❞❈♦✉♥ t❡r♣❛rt✐❡s
❆❣❡♥ t ș❉s
✸ ❇✉② ✶✵ ✲✶✶✼✱✺ ✶
✹ ❇✉② ✼ ✲✽✵✱✺ ✶✱✻
✶ ❙❡❧❧ ✶✺ ✶✼✻✱✷✺ ✸✱✹
✷ ❙❡❧❧ ✵ ✵ ♥♦t ✜❧❧❡❞
✺ ❇✉② ✺ ✲✺✼✱✺ ✻
✾ ❇✉② ✹ ✲✹✼ ✻
✻ ❙❡❧❧ ✶✶ ✽✷✺ ✺✱✾ ✭♣❛rt❧② ✜❧❧❡❞✮
✶✵ ❙❡❧❧ ✵ ✵ ♥♦t ✜❧❧❡❞
❆ss❡ts ❊①✲
❝ ❤❛♥❣❡❞✷✻ ❆ss❡ts ♥♦t
❡①❝ ❤❛♥❣❡❞✽
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✻✿ ❚ r❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥ r❡s♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ❛❢t❡r ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r②
❲ ❡ s❡❡ t❤❛t ♠♦st ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡✐r ♦r❞❡rs r❡s♦❧✈ ❡❞✳ ❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ❛❣❡♥ t ✸
❤❛❞ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧❧② ❛♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ❜✉② ✶✵ ❛ss❡ts ❛t ❛ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ ✶✷ ✭s❡❡ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✻ ✮✳❚❤❡
❛❣❡♥ t ❤❛s ❤✐s ♦r❞❡r ❢✉❧✜❧❧❡❞ ❛t ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ ✶✶✳✼✺ ❛♥❞ ❤❡ ♦❜t❛✐♥s ✶✵ ❛ss❡ts ❢♦r ❛ t♦t❛❧
s✉♠ ♦❢ ✶✶✼✱✺✳ ❍✐s ❝♦✉♥ t❡r♣❛rt ② ✱ ❛❣❡♥ t ✶✱ ❛❧s♦ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ✜❧❧s ❤✐s ♦r❞❡r✳ ❆❣❡♥ t ✶ s❡❧❧s
✶✵ ❛ss❡ts t♦ ❛❣❡♥ t ✸ ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s ✺ ❛ss❡ts t♦ ❛❣❡♥ t ✹ t❤ ✉s r❡❝❡✐✈✐♥❣ ✶✼✻✳✷✺ ✐♥ ❝❛s❤✳
❲ ❡ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦✉t t❤❛t ✇✐t❤ t❤✐s ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠✱ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦r❞❡rs ❞♦ ♥♦t
❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛♥ ② ❡✛❡❝t ♦♥ t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r✐❝❡✳ ❋ r♦♠ ♦♥ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇ t❤✐s ✐s ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡
♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦r❞❡rs ❞♦♥✬t ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ ❛♥ ② ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r s❡tt✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ♣r✐❝❡✳
❋ r♦♠ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r❡ss✉r❡ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇ ✐t ✐s ❛r❣✉❛❜❧❡ t❤❛t ❧❛r❣❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦r❞❡rs ❝❛♥
✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❜ ② r❛♣✐❞❧② ❣♦✐♥❣ t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡rs ✐♥ ♦♥❡ ♦r ❛♥♦t❤❡r ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥✳
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♥❛t✉r❡ ♦❢ ♦✉r ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❡♥ ✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥ t✱ t❤✐s ❡✛❡❝t ✐s
✐❣♥♦r❛❜❧❡✳ ș♥ ♦✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r✱ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦r❞❡rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ♣✉r♣ ♦s❡ ♦❢ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞✐♥❣ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ②
t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❤❛ ✈✐♥❣ ❛♥ ② ❞✐r❡❝t ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦♥ ♣r✐❝❡s✳
✺✳✹ ❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ts✱ t❤❡✐r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s
✺✳✹✳✶ ❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ t
❚❤❡r❡ ✐s ♥♦ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❜✉② ❡rs ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧❡rs✳ ❊✈ ❡♥ ✇❤❡♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ♠✐ss✐♥❣
♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❝❛♥ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ t❤❛t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ ❜✉② ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧✳ ❙♦✱ ✇ ❡
❛ss❡rt t❤❛t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ t❤❡ ❜❛s✐❝ ❛♥❞ ♠♦st ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ ❜❧♦ ❝ ❦s ♦❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❈♦♥s❡q✉❡♥ t❧② ✱ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✬s r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥s✐❞❡ ❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉✲
❧❛t✐♦♥✱ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✱ ✐s ♠❛ ②❜ ❡ t❤❡ ♠♦st ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝ ♦❢ ♣❛rt
♦❢ ♦✉r ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳
❆♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ✐s ❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ❛ r❡❛❧ ❧✐❢❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✳ ▲✐❦ ❡ ❛♥ ② ♠♦ ❞❡❧✱ ♦✉r ❛❣❡♥ t

✾✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺✳ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮
✐s ❛ s✐♠♣❧✐✜❡❞ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✳ ❆♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ✐s ❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ♣r♦❣r❛♠ t❤❛t r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡s
❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡ts ❛ str❡❛♠ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❯s✐♥❣ t❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ❛♥❞ ❤✐s ♣ ❡rs♦♥❛❧
❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s✱ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ t ♠❛❦ ❡s ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ s❡♥❞s ❛♥ ♦r❞❡r✳ ș♥ ♦✉r
♠♦ ❞❡❧✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡s✱ ❛t t❤❡ st❛rt ♦❢ ❡❛❝ ❤ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✱ t ✇ ♦ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧
str❡❛♠s ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣♠❡♥ ts ✭ It ✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❧❛st ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✭ Pt ✮✳
ș♥ ❛❝❝♦r❞❛♥❝❡ t♦ t❤❡ t❤❡♦r② ❜ ❡❤✐♥❞ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦✉r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✱ ✭ ❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥ ✱ ✶✾✼✸ ✮ ❛♥❞
✭ ❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✶✾✽✶ ✮✱ ♦✉r ❛❣❡♥ ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈ ❡ ❜✐❛s❡s ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❞✐st♦rt t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡② r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡✳ ❚❤ ✉s✱ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✇✐❧❧ ♥♦t ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
str❡❛♠It ✭s❡❡ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ✺✳✷ ✮ ❜✉t ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ str❡❛♠✱
Biasx(It) ✳ ❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ✧♦♣t✐♠✐st✧ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✇✐❧❧ ♦ ✈ ❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✬s ❣r♦ ✇t❤✳
❋ ♦r ❛♥ ❡①tr❛ t ✇✐st ♦❢ r❡❛❧✐t ② ✱ ✇ ❡ ❝r❡❛t❡❞ ❛ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ t❤r♦✉❣❤ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❛❣❡♥ ts ❝❛♥
r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡ ❞❡❧❛ ② ❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ș♥st❡❛❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❧❛t❡st ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ It ✱ s♦♠❡
❛❣❡♥ ts ❝❛♥ r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡ ♦✉t✲❞❛t❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ It−k ✳ ❚❤✐s ❢❡❛t✉r❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s t❤❡ ❢❛❝t t❤❛t
♥♦t ❛❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛❝❝❡ss t♦ t❤❡ ♠♦st ✉♣✲t♦✲❞❛t❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜ ♦✉t
❛♥ ❛ss❡t✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ❝❛♥ r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❧❛t❡st ♥❡✇s ✭ k= 0 ✮✱ ❛ ❞❛ ② ♦❧❞ ♥❡✇s
✭k= 1 ✮ ♦r ❡✈ ❡♥ ♦❧❞❡r ✭ k >1 ✮✳
Investment method
Biased informationt
PortfoliotDecision
Orders
Orders are executed New Portfoliot+1Market order book
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✺✳✹✿ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ♠❛❦✐♥❣
❆❢t❡r ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t✐♥❣ ✭❜✐❛s✐♥❣✮ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠s✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ✇✐❧❧ ✉s❡ ❤✐s ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t str❛t❡❣② t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥✳ ❯s✐♥❣ t❤✐s ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ t
✇✐❧❧ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❛❝t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❜✉②✐♥❣✱ s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ♦r ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣ ❤✐s
❛ss❡ts✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ❝❛s❤ ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ ❛ r❡t✉r♥✱ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ t ✐s ♥♦t ✇ ♦rr✐❡❞ ❛❜ ♦✉t ❛♥
♦♣t✐♠❛❧ r❡♣❛rt✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❤✐s ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❛ r✐s❦② ❛♥❞ ❛ ♥♦♥✲r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t✳ ❆ ❜✉② ♦r

✺✳✹✳ ❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts✱ t❤❡✐r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ✾✸
s❡❧❧ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ✇✐❧❧ ♣r♦♠♣t t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ t t♦ s❡♥❞ ❛♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ❜✉② st♦ ❝ ❦s t♦ t❤❡ ❡①t❡♥ t ♦❢
❤✐s ❝❛s❤ ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣s ♦r t♦ s❡❧❧ ❤✐s ❡♥ t✐r❡ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦✳
❆ t t❤❡ ❜ ❡❣✐♥♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❛ t❡st✱ t❤❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✇✐❧❧ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛ ♠✐① ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ ts t❤❛t ❛r❡
❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❡❞ ❜ ② ❛ s❡t ♦❢ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✳ ❆❣❡♥ ts st❛rt tr❛❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✳ ❆❣❡♥ ts ✇❤✐❝ ❤
✉s❡ ❛❧❧ t❤❡✐r ❝❛s❤ ♦r s❡❧❧ ❛❧❧ t❤❡✐r st♦ ❝ ❦s ❝❛♥♥♦t s❡♥❞ ❛♥ ② ♠♦r❡ ♦r❞❡rs t♦ ❜✉② r❡s♣ ❡❝✲
t✐✈ ❡❧② s❡❧❧ st♦ ❝ ❦s✳ ❈♦♥s❡q✉❡♥ t❧② ✱ ❛❣❡♥ ts t❤❛t ❡①❤❛✉st ❜ ♦t❤ t❤❡✐r ❝❛s❤ ❛♥❞ ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦
♦❢ st♦ ❝ ❦s ✇✐❧❧ ♥♦ ❧♦♥❣❡r ❜ ❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ s❡♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❲ ❡ ❞♦ ♥♦t ❛❧❧♦ ✇ ❢♦r
s❤♦rt✲s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ♦r ❜ ♦rr♦ ✇✐♥❣ s✐♥❝❡ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦❢ ❛❝t✐♦♥s s✉♣♣ ♦rt❡❞ ❜ ② s✉❝ ❤ ❝❛s❤
s♦✉r❝❡s ✇✐❧❧ ❝❛♥❝❡❧ ❡❛❝ ❤ ♦t❤❡r ♦✉t✳
✺✳✹✳✷ ❚❤❡ ❜✐❛s
❚❤❡ ♣ ❡rs♦♥❛❧ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ♦❢ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❜✐❛s❡s✱ ❛r❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ✐♥ ♦✉r ❡♥ ✈✐✲
r♦♥♠❡♥ t ✉s✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❛✣♥❡ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤ ✉s✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t
❂ ✱ ✇✐t❤ ♣ ❡rs♦♥❛❧ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s aP ❛♥❞bP ✇✐❧❧ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
It ❛s
Biasp(It) =aP∗It+bP ✭✺✳✻✮
❉✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❝♦♠ ❜✐♥❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✬s ❜✐❛s ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t ✇ ❡❧❧ ❦♥♦ ✇♥ ❜ ❡✲
❤❛ ✈✐♦✉r❛❧ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭❛s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ s❡❡♥ ✐♥ ✐♥ ✺✳✼ ✳
◆r ❆ ❇ ❈❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝
✶ ✶ > ✵ ❂✉r❡ ♦♣t✐♠✐st✐❝ ✭❞❡❝r❡❛s❡s ❜❛❞ ♥❡✇s
❛♥❞ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡s ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♥❡✇s✮
✷ ✶ < ✵ ❂✉r❡ ♣ ❡ss✐♠✐st✐❝ ✭✐♥❝r❡❛s❡s ❜❛❞ ♥❡✇s
❛♥❞ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡s ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♥❡✇s✮
✸ ❆❂✶ ✵ ✴ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ș♥❢♦r♠❡❞✱ ♥♦t ❜✐❛s❡❞
✹ ❆> ✶ ✯ ❖♣t✐♠✐st✐❝ ✇✐t❤ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♥❡✇s ❛♥❞ ♣ ❡s✲
s✐♠✐st✐❝ ❛❜ ♦✉t ❜❛❞ ♥❡✇s
✺ ✶> ❆> ✵ ✯ ▼♦ ❞❡r❛t❡❞✱ > ❯♥❞❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡s ❣♦ ♦ ❞
❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s ❜❛❞ ♥❡✇s
✻ ✲✶< ❆< ✵ ✯ ❈♦♥ tr❛r✐❛♥✱ ▼♦ ❞❡r❛t❡❞
✼ ❆❂✲✶ ✵ ❈♦♥ tr❛r✐❛♥✱ ✴ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ș♥❢♦r♠❡❞
✽ ❆< ✲✶ ✯ ❖♣t✐♠✐st✐❝ ✇✐t❤ ❜❛❞ ♥❡✇s ❛♥❞ ♣ ❡s✲
s✐♠✐st✐❝ ❛❜ ♦✉t ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♥❡✇s
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✺✳✼✿ ❇✐❛s ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛♥❞ ❛ss♦ ❝✐❛t❡❞ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r tr❛✐t
❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ t ✇ ♦ ❜✐❛s ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ♦❢ ❡❛❝ ❤ ❛❣❡♥ t✱ ❆ ❛♥❞ ❇✱ ♣❧❛ ② ❞✐✛❡r✲
❡♥ t r♦❧❡s ✐♥ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐③✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ t✬s ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦✉r❛❧ tr❛✐ts✳ ✴ ❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❆ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ ts
❛ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝ ♦❢ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥✴❞❡✢❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❆♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ✇✐t❤ A >1 ✭♦r
◆r✳ ✹ ✐♥ t❤❡ t❛❜❧❡ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡✮ ✇✐❧❧ ♦ ✈ ❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ r❡❣❛r❞❧❡ss ♦❢ ✐ts s✐❣♥✳

✾✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺✳ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮
ș♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡❞ ❜ ② t❤✐s t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ t✱ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✢✉❝t✉❛t❡ ❛r♦✉♥❞ ❢✉♥✲
❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✇✐❧❧ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❡①❛❣❣❡r❛t❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t✐♦♥s✱ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥
t❤❡✐r ♦ ✈ ❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤ ✉s ✇ ❡ s❛ ② t❤❛t✱ ❛♣r✐♦r✐✱ t❤❡ ✬❆✬ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❤❛s
❛♥ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ✱ ♦r ♠♦r❡ ♣r❡❝✐s❡❧② ♦♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ❡①❝❡ss ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ✳
❚❤❡ s❡❝♦♥❞ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❇✱ t❤❛t ♠♦ ❞❡❧s t❤❡ ✇ ❛ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱
✐♠♣❧✐❡s ❛ ✈ ❡rt✐❝❛❧ s❤✐❢t ✐♥ t❤❡ ❆✯ș t ❧✐♥❡✳ ❋ ♦r ❛ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ ❇ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ s❡❡ ✺✳✼ ✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t
✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ♦♣t✐♠✐st✐❝ ❛❜ ♦✉t ❛❧❧ ♥❡✇s✱ ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ t❤❛t ✐t ✇✐❧❧ ❡♥❤❛♥❝❡ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
✇✐t❤ ❛ ❇ ❛♠♦✉♥ t ❛♥❞ ✐t ✇✐❧❧ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈ ❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❛♠♦✉♥ t✳
ș♥ ✈ ❡rs❡❧② ✱ ❛ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈ ❡ ❇ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ♦❢ ❞❡❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❛♥❞ ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ❜❛❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤ ✉s r❡♥❞❡r✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t t♦ ❜ ❡ ✬♣ ❡ss✐♠✐st✐❝✬✳
❆♥ ✐♥ t❡r❡st✐♥❣ q✉❡st✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❛r✐s❡s ✐s ✐❢ t❤❡s❡ ❜✐❛s❡s ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ✐♥ t✐♠❡✳ ❆♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r
❝❛♥ r❡❛❧✐s❡ t❤❛t ❤✐s ✇ ❛ ② ♦❢ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t✐♥❣ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ✬❜✐❛s❡❞✬ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ tr② t♦ ✧✉♥ ❜✐❛s✧
❤✐♠s❡❧❢✳ ❲ ❡ ❝❛♥ ❞❡✈✐s❡ ❛♥ ❡①t❡♥s✐♦♥ t♦ ♦✉r ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✇❤❡r❡ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ❝❛♥ tr② t♦ ✬✉♥ ❜✐❛s✬
✐ts❡❧❢✳ ❇② tr❛♥s❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ✺✳✻ ✐♥ t♦ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠ ✉❧❛ ❜ ❡❧♦ ✇✱
Bias(It) = (aP∗It+bP−cp)/dp ✭✺✳✼✮
❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t tr✐❡s ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t s❡ts ♦❢ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ❢♦r t❤❡ cp ✱dp ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ❛rr✐✈ ❡ ❛t
t❤❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠✳ ș♥ ♦✉r r❡s✉❧ts ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✇ ❡ ❛r❣✉❡ t❤❛t ❞♦✐♥❣ t❤✐s ❛❝✲
t✐✈ ❡ ✬✉♥ ❜✐❛s✐♥❣✬ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ ✐s ❡q✉✐✈ ❛❧❡♥ t t♦ ❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ✇❤❡r❡ ✉♥❞❡r♣ ❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣
✭✬❜✐❛s❡❞✬✮ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✇✐❧❧ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧❧② ❡①❤❛✉st t❤❡✐r ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ❛♥❞ st♦♣ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✭t❤ ✉s ❞✐s✲
❛♣♣ ❡❛r✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✮✳ ❚❤✐s s❡❧❢✲❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐❧❧ ❧❡❛ ✈ ❡ ♦♥❧② ♣ ❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ✭ ♥♦t
❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✮ ❛❣❡♥ ts t♦ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣✳ ❉✉r✐♥❣ ♦✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✇ ❡ s❡❡ ❡①❛❝t❧② ✇❤✐❝ ❤
❛❣❡♥ ts s✉r✈✐✈ ❡ s✐♥❝❡ ♥♦t ❤❛ ✈✐♥❣ ❛ ❜✐❛s ✐s ♥♦t ♥❡❝❡ss❛r✐❧② ❛ ❣✉❛r❛♥ t❡❡ ❢♦r s✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ✐♥
❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳
✺✳✹✳✸ ❚❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥
❆❢t❡r r❡❝❡✐✈✐♥❣ ♥❡✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ❡①❡❝✉t❡s ❤✐s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣② ❛♥❞ ❣❡♥✲
❡r❛t❡s ♥❡✇ ♦r❞❡rs✳ ❉❡♣ ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ t✬s ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t✐♦♥ ✭❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ② ✱ ♣r♦✜t✱ ❡t❝✳✮ ❛♥❞
♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❝r❡❛t❡❞ ❛ t ②♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✭s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✺✳✻ ✮✳

✺✳✹✳ ❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts✱ t❤❡✐r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ✾✺
Agent investment
strategy
Liquidity motivated Profit-motivated
Liquidity traders InformedUninformed
Speculator
Fundamental trader Chartist trader
Speculator trader
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✺✳✺✿ ❚②♣♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t str❛t❡❣✐❡s
❚❤❡ ✜rst ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ✐♥ ❞✐st✐♥❣✉✐s❤✐♥❣ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✐s t❤❛t ♦❢ t❤❡ ♦❜✲
❥❡❝t✐✈❡ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t✳ ❲ ❡ ♠❛❦❡ ❛ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❛❝t✐✈❡ ❛♥❞ ♣❛ss✐✈❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳
P❛ss✐✈❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ t❤♦s❡ t❤❛t ✉s❡ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛s ❛ ♣✉r❡ ♠❡❛♥s ♦❢ ❝♦♥s❡r✈✐♥❣ ❛♥❞
tr❛♥s❢❡rr✐♥❣ ✇❡❛❧t❤ t❤r♦✉❣❤ t✐♠❡✳ ❚❤❡② ❞♦ ♥♦t ❣❡t ❛❝t✐✈❡❧② ✐♥✈♦❧✈❡❞ ✐♥ ♠❛❦✐♥❣
✬❣♦♦❞✬ tr❛❞❡s✳ ș♥st❡❛❞✱ t❤❡② ❜✉② ❛ss❡ts ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡② ❤❛✈❡ ❡①tr❛ ❝❛s❤ ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧ t❤❡ ❛s✲
s❡ts ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡② ✇❛♥t t♦ ❝♦♥s✉♠❡✳ ❚❤❡② ❡①♣❡❝t t♦ r❡❝❡✐✈❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t r❡t✉r♥ ❢♦r t❤❡✐r
✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ♣❡r✐♦❞✳ ❲ ❡ ❝❛❧❧ t❤❡s❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ts ✬❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✬✳
ș♥ ♦♣♣♦s✐t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ♣❛ss✐✈❡ ✇❛② ♦❢ t❤❡ ✬❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✬✱ ❛❝t✐✈❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
❡♥❣❛❣❡ ✐♥ ❡✛♦rts t♦ ♠❛❦❡ s✉♣❡r✐♦r ❣❛✐♥s ♦♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❡①♣❡❝t
t♦ r❡❝❡✐✈❡ ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t r❡t✉r♥s✳ ❚❤❡② ❜❡❧✐❡✈❡ t❤❡② ❝❛♥ ♦✉t♣❡r❢♦r♠ t❤❡
♠❛r❦❡t ❜② ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡✐r s❦✐❧❧ ❛♥❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❆❧t❤♦✉❣❤ ❜♦t❤ t②♣❡s ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❡①♣❡❝t
s♦♠❡ r❡t✉r♥s ❢♦r t❤❡✐r ✐♥✈❡st❡❞ s❛✈✐♥❣s✱ ♦♥❧② t❤❡ ❛❝t✐✈❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ t❤♦s❡ tr②✐♥❣ t♦
✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡✐r ❡❛r♥✐♥❣s ❛❜♦✈❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❧❡✈❡❧✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✇❡ r❡❢❡r t♦ ❛❝t✐✈❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
❛s ❜❡✐♥❣ ✬♣r♦✜t ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t❡❞✬✳ ❚❤✐s t②♣♦❧♦❣② ✐s ♥♦t ✐♥t❡♥❞❡❞ t♦ ❜❡ ❡①❤❛✉st✐✈❡✳ ș♥st❡❛❞
✇❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡ ❛s ♠❛♥② ❛✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦r t②♣❡s ❛s ♣♦ss✐❜❧❡ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ❢❡✇ ❝♦♥❝❡♥tr❛t❡❞
❛♥❞ ❞✐st✐♥❝t✐✈❡ ♣❛tt❡r♥s ✭✇❤✐❝❤ ❛r❡ ♠♦❞❡❧❧❡❞ ✐♥ ♦✉r s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r✮✳
✺✳✹✳✸✳✶ ▲✐q✉✐❞✐t ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
▲✐q✉✐❞✐t ② tr❛❞❡rs ❛r❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t❤❛t ❤❛✈❡ ❡①tr❛ ❝❛s❤✳ ❚❤❡s❡ tr❛❞❡rs ✐♥✈❡st t❤❡✐r ❝❛s❤
❢♦r s❤♦rt ♣❡r✐♦❞s✳ ❚❤❡② ❞♦ ♥♦t ❧♦♦❦ ❛t ♠❛r❦❡t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧s ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t❡❞ ❜②
❛ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ r❡❛s♦♥s ✇❤✐❝❤ ✇❡ ❣❡♥❡r✐❝❛❧❧② ❝❛❧❧ ✧❧✐q✉✐❞✐t②✧ r❡❛s♦♥s✳ ▲✐q✉✐❞✐t② tr❛❞❡rs

✾✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺✳ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮
s❡♥❞ ♦♥❧② ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜✉② ♦r s❡❧❧ ♦r❞❡rs ❛t r❛♥❞♦♠ t✐♠❡ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s✳
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡r ❜ ♦ ♦❦✱ t❤❡s❡ tr❛❞❡rs✬ ♦r❞❡rs ❞♦
♥♦t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛♥ ② ❞✐r❡❝t ❡✛❡❝t ♦♥ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✳ ș♥ ❛ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉♦✉s
tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ t❤❡ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ② tr❛❞❡rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛♥ ❡✛❡❝t ♦♥ ♣r✐❝❡s s✐♥❝❡ ♠♦r❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜✉②
✭s❡❧❧✮ ♦r❞❡rs ✇✐❧❧ r❡s♦❧✈ ❡ ♠♦r❡ ❜✐❞ ✭❛s❦✮ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ❡♥ t✉❛❧❧② ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ✭❞❡❝r❡❛s❡✮
t❤❡ ❝✉rr❡♥ t ♣r✐❝❡✳ ș♥ ♦✉r ❝❛s❡✱ ♦❢ ❡①tr❛✲❞❛ ② tr❛❞✐♥❣✱ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ② tr❛❞❡rs ♦✛❡r ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ②
t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✭t♦ t❤❡ ❡①t❡♥ t ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ❝❛s❤ ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣✮✳ ș♥ r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts t❤❡s❡
tr❛❞❡rs ❛r❡ ♦❢t❡♥ ❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡s ✇✐t❤ ❡①tr❛ ❝❛s❤ t♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st ❢♦r s❤♦rt ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ✭♦ ✈ ❡r♥✐❣❤ t✱
✇ ❡❡❦✲❡♥❞✱ ❡t❝✳✮✳ ❚❤✐s ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ② tr❛❞✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣② ✐s ♠♦ ❞❡❧❧❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞✿
❙tr❛t❡❣② ♦❢ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ② tr❛❞❡r ①
ș♥♣✉ts ✿ ❆❣❡♥ t✬s Cashx ❛♥❞Stocks x ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ②
P(Sell) = 50%
❆ ❝t✐♦♥s
✶✳ ♣ ❂ r❛♥❞♦♠ r❡❛❧ ❢r♦♠ ❬✵✱✶❪
✷✳ ș❢p≥P(sell) ❛♥❞Cashx>0 t❤❛♥ s❡♥❞ ▼❛r❦ ❡t ❇✉② ♦r❞❡r ❢♦r ❛ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠
❛♠♦✉♥ t ♦❢ Cashx
✸✳ ș❢p <1−P(sell) ❛♥❞Stocks x>0 t❤❛♥ s❡♥❞ ▼❛r❦ ❡t ❙❡❧❧ ♦r❞❡r ❢♦r ❛ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r
♦❢Stocks x st♦ ❝ ❦s
ș♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡✱ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✺✵✪ ❛ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ② tr❛❞❡r ✇✐❧❧ ❜✉② st♦ ❝ ❦s ✇✐t❤ ❛❧❧
❤✐s ❝❛s❤ ♦r s❡❧❧ ❛❧❧ ♦❢ ❤✐s st♦ ❝ ❦s✳ ❚❤✐s st❛t❡✲✐♥❞❡♣ ❡♥❞❡♥ t ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ✇✐❧❧ ❡♥s✉r❡ ❛
❝♦♥st❛♥ t ✭♦♥ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡✮ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦r❞❡rs✳ ❚❤❡s❡ tr❛❞❡rs ❝❛♥ ❡✈ ❡♥ t✉❛❧❧② ❛❞❛♣t
t❤❡✐r ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ t♦ ❞❡♣ ❡♥❞ ♦♥ r❡❝❡♥ t r❡t✉r♥s ♦r ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❧❡✈ ❡❧s ✲ ❧✐❦ ❡ ❜✉②
❧❡ss ✇❤❡♥ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡s✳ ❚❤✐s t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ st❛t❡✲❞❡♣ ❡♥❞❡♥ t ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝❡s✱ ❜ ②
❞❡s✐❣♥✱ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ❛♥❞ r❡t✉r♥s ✭❛♥❞✴♦r ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ②✮✳ ❋ r♦♠ t❤❡ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡
str❛t❡❣② ✇ ❡ ✐♥❢❡r t❤❛t ✬❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ②✬ tr❛❞❡rs ❝❛♥ ❜✉② ❤✐❣❤ ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧ ❧♦ ✇ s♦ ❛t ❛ ❧♦ss✳ șt
✐s ✐♥ t❡r❡st✐♥❣ t♦ s❡❡ ✐❢ ❛♥❞ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ tr❛❞❡rs✬ s❤✐❢ts ✐♥ t❤❡ ❢❛ ✈ ♦✉r ♦❢
♠♦r❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♦r ✐❢ t❤❡s❡ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♠❛♥❛❣❡ t♦ ❜ ❡❝♦♠❡ r✐❝ ❤❡r✳ ❇②
❛❞❥✉st✐♥❣ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉t❡ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ② tr❛❞❡rs ✐♥ t♦ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t
str❛t❡❣② ❣r♦✉♣s✳ ș❢ ✇ ❡ ❧♦ ✇ ❡r t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ s❡❧❧✐♥❣✱ t❤❡s❡ tr❛❞❡rs ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡❝♦♠❡
✇❤❛t t❤❡ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡ ❝❛❧❧s ✬❜✉② ❛♥❞ ❤♦❧❞✬ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❲✐t❤ ✴✭❙❡❧❧✮❂✵✳✵✶ ❛ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ②
tr❛❞❡r ✇✐❧❧ ❜✉② ✾✾✪ ♦❢ t❤❡ t✐♠❡ ✭s♦ ✐♥ ♣r❛❝t✐❝❡ ❤❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❜✉② ♦♥❝❡ ✇✐t❤ ❛❧❧ ❤✐s ❝❛s❤✮
❛♥❞ ❤❡ s❡❧❧ ❤✐s ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❛❢t❡r ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ ✭♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ✶✵✵ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❛ ②s✱
♦♥ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡✮✳ ▲♦ ✇ ❡r✐♥❣ ✴✭❙❡❧❧✮ ❡✈ ❡♥ ♠♦r❡ ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡ ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ ♦❢ t❤✐s
♥❡✇ tr❛❞❡r ✭s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✺✳✻ ✮✳

✺✳✹✳ ❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts✱ t❤❡✐r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ✾✼
Agent investment
strategy
Liquidity motivated Profit-motivated
Liquidity traders InformedUninformed
Speculator
Fundamental trader Chartist (Noise) trader
Speculator traderOvernight trader
Buy and Hold trader
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✺✳✻✿ ❚②♣♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✭❡①t❡♥❞❡❞✮
❖♥ t❤❡ ♦♣♣♦s✐t❡ s✐❞❡✱ ✐❢ ✇❡ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ P✭❙❡❧❧✮ t♦ ✾✾✪ ✇❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ t❤❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ♦❢ ❛♥
♦✈❡r✲♥✐❣❤t ✐♥✈❡st♦r✳ ❚❤✐s ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❤❛s ❛ ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ♦❢ ✶ ❞❛②s ✭✶✪ ♦❢ ❤✐s t✐♠❡ ❤❡
❜✉②s✮ ❛♥❞ ♦♥❧② st♦r❡s ❤✐s ❝❛s❤ ✐♥ st♦❝❦s ❢♦r ❛ ✈❡r② s❤♦rt ♣❡r✐♦❞✳ ❆s ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥
❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ✐♥✈❡st♦r t②♣❡✱ t❤❡s❡ t✇♦ ❡①tr❡♠❡ ✈ ❛r✐❛♥ts ❢ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② tr❛❞❡rs ❤❛✈❡ ❛♥ ✐♠♣❛❝t
♦♥❧② ♦♥ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ❛♥❞ ♥♦t ♦♥ ♣r✐❝❡s✳
✺✳✹✳✸✳✷ Pr♦✜t✲♠♦t✐✈ ❛t❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
ș♥✈❡st♦rs t❤❛t ❡♥t❡r ♠❛r❦❡ts t♦ ❛❝t✐✈❡❧② ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❛r❡
❝❛❧❧❡❞ ♣r♦✜t✲♠♦t✐✈ ❛t❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ❚❤❡② tr② t♦ ♣r❡❞✐❝t ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ♦r t❤❡ t❡♥❞❡♥✲
❝✐❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡❞ ✐♥t♦ t✇♦ ❣r♦✉♣s✱ ❞❡♣❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥
t❤❡✐r ❜❡❧✐❡❢s ❛❜♦✉t t❤❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ș♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ t❤♦s❡ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❜❡❧✐❡✈❡
♠❛r❦❡ts ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❡♥t✐r❡❧② ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ❛♥❞ t❤❡② ✇✐❧❧ tr② t♦ ♣r♦✜t ❢r♦♠ t❤❡s❡ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s✳
❯♥✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ s♣ ❡ ❝✉❧❛t♦rs ✭♦r ♣✉r❡ s♣❡❝✉❧❛t♦rs✮ ❛r❡ t❤♦s❡ t❤❛t ❜❡❧✐❡✈❡ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛r❡ ❡❢✲
✜❝✐❡♥t✱ ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ✐♥t❡❣r❛t❡❞ ✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡s✱ ❛♥❞ t❤❡②
❝♦♥s✐❞❡r t❤❛t tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ ❛✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ♥♦t ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡✳
❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ t❤❡s❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✧❝❤❛rt✐st✧✱ ✧♥♦✐s❡✧ ♦r ✧t❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧✧ tr❛❞❡rs ✇✐❧❧ ✉s❡
♥♦♥✲❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❛♥❞ ♣r♦✜t ❢r♦♠ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♠♦✈❡s✳
❚❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ tr❛❞❡r ✐s t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ✇❤♦ t❤✐♥❦s t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ s❤♦✉❧❞ r❡✢❡❝t
t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ❝♦♠♣❛♥② ✳ ș❢ t❤✐s r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ❞♦❡s♥✬t ❤♦❧❞✱ t❤✐s

✾✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺✳ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✇✐❧❧ ❛❝t ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✬❝♦rr❡❝t✬ ♣r✐❝❡✳ ❚❤❡ str❛t❡❣② ♦❢ t❤✐s t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢
tr❛❞❡r ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ ❛s✿
❙tr❛t❡❣② ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛❣❡♥ t ①
ș♥♣✉ts ✿Biasx(It) ✱Pt ✱▼✐♥✐♠ ✉♠ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ ❢♦r tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ t ①✱ rx,min
❆ ❝t✐♦♥s ✿
✶✳ ❋ ♦r❡❝❛st✱ ❛t t✐♠❡ t✱ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ t✬s ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❛t
t✐♠❡ t✰✶ Ex,t(Pt+1) =Pt+Biasx(It)
✷✳ ❈♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ ❝♦♥✜❞❡♥❝❡ ✐♥ t❡r✈ ❛❧ ♦❢ t❤✐s ♣r✐❝❡
ICPt+1= [Ex,t+1(Pt+1)∗(1±rx,min)]
✸✳ ș❢Pt< min(ICPt+1) t❤❡♥ s❡♥❞ ❜✉② ▲✐♠✐t ❖r❞❡r ❛t ❜✉② ♣r✐❝❡ min(ICPt+1)
✹✳ ș❢Pt> max(ICPt+1) t❤❡♥ s❡♥❞ s❡❧❧ ▲✐♠✐t ❖r❞❡r ❛t s❡❧❧ ♣r✐❝❡ max(ICPt+1)
ș♥ t❤❡ ✜rst st❡♣✱ t❤❡ tr❛❞❡r ✉s❡s ❤✐s ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭❜✐❛s❡❞ ❛s ✐t ✐s✮ t♦
❢♦r❡❝❛st t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✳ ▲♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ❛t ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ✶✺ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✽✶✱ t❤❛t ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡s
t❤❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ✇ ❡ s❡❡ t❤❛t ❛♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ tr❛❞❡r ✇✐t❤♦✉t
❛♥ ② ❜✐❛s ❝♦✉❧❞ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ❢♦r❡❝❛st t❤❡ ♥❡①t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✳ ❊✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ ❛
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ tr❛❞❡r ❝❛♥ ❢♦r❡❝❛st t❤✐s ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✭❜✐❛s❡❞ ♦r ♥♦t✮ ❤❡ ❦♥♦ ✇s t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
✇✐❧❧ ♥♦t ♥❡❝❡ss❛r✐❧② ♠♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ t♦ ✇ ❛r❞s t❤✐s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ✐♠♠❡❞✐❛t❡❧② ✳
❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡ tr❛❞❡r ✇✐❧❧ t❛❦ ❡ ❛ ♣r❡❝❛✉t✐♦♥ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ❜ ② ❛❝ ❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣✐♥❣ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♥❡①t
♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ❝❧♦s❡ t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❚❤✐s ✐s ✇ ❛ ② t❤❡ tr❛❞❡r
❝♦♠♣✉t❡s✱ ✐♥ st❡♣ ✷✱ ❛ ❝♦♥✜❞❡♥❝❡ ✐♥ t❡r✈ ❛❧ ✉s✐♥❣ ❤✐s ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ r❡t✉r♥ r❡q✉✐r❡♠❡♥ t✳
❚❤✐s t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ tr❛❞❡r ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡s t❤❡ ♥❡①t ❢✉t✉r❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ s✐t✉❛t❡❞ s♦♠❡✇❤❡r❡
✐♥s✐❞❡ t❤✐s ✐♥ t❡r✈ ❛❧✳ ș❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ♦✉ts✐❞❡ ♦❢ t❤✐s ✐♥ t❡r✈ ❛❧ ✐t ♠❡❛♥s t❤❛t✱
✐❢ ❛❧❧ ❣♦ ❡s ♥♦r♠❛❧❧② ✱ t❤❡r❡ ✐s ❛♥ ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t ② ❢♦r ❛ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧❧② ❛❝❝❡♣t❡❞ ♣r♦✜t s✐♥❝❡
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐❧❧ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❛♥ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❛❞❥✉st♠❡♥ t t♦ ♣r✐❝❡s ✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡❛r ❢✉t✉r❡✳ ❚❤✐s
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r✱ ♦❢ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧❧② ❛❝❝❡♣t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥✱ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ ❛s ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡
❛❣❡♥ t✬s r✐s❦ ❛ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣ ❡r❝❡✐✈ ❡❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r✐s❦s✳ ❚❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❝♦♥✜❞❡♥❝❡
✐♥ t❡r✈ ❛❧ ✐s ❝♦♠♣✉t❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ s✉❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r✱ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ r❡t✉r♥✱ t❤❛t ❝♦♥ t❛✐♥s
t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs r✐s❦ ❛ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s ❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s ❤✐s ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛♥❞ ❛ss❡t
r✐s❦s✳ ș♥ ❛ ✈ ❡r② ❝♦♠♣ ❡t✐t✐✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ♣r❡❝✐s❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ❛♥❞ q✉✐❝ ❦❧②
✐♥ t❡❣r❛t❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t♦ ♣r✐❝❡s✱ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✇✐❧❧ ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ❜ ❡ ✈ ❡r②
❝❧♦s❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ r❡❛❧✐t✐❡s✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡ r✐s❦ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠✐s❡st✐♠❛t✐♥❣ ✐s
s♠❛❧❧ ❛♥❞ ❧✐❦ ❡✇✐s❡ t❤❡ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ r❡q✉✐r❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s ♦❢ tr❛❞❡rs ❛r❡ s♠❛❧❧❡r✳ ❆ tr❛❞❡r
✇✐t❤ ❤✐❣❤ ❛ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥ ❢♦r r✐s❦ ✇✐❧❧ ✇ ❛♥ t t♦ ❡♥ t❡r ❛ tr❛❞❡ ♦♥❧② ✐❢ t❤❡r❡ ✐s ❛ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥ t
♣r♦✜t ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ② ✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r r✐s❦ ❛ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s ❛ ❤✐❣❤❡r ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ r❡t✉r♥
❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥✳ ❉❡♣ ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ t❤❡ tr❛❞❡r ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s✱ ❤✐s r✐s❦ ❛ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥ ❝♦ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t

✺✳✹✳ ❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts✱ t❤❡✐r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ✾✾
❝❛♥ ✢✉❝t✉❛t❡ ❞❡♣ ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ ❤✐s ♣ ❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✭♠♦r❡ r✐s❦② ✱ ❧❡ss r✐s❦② ✱
❡t❝✮✳ ș♥ ♦✉r ❝♦♥❝❡♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ t❤✐s ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r s❤♦✉❧❞ r❡st ❝♦♥st❛♥ t ❢♦r
❛❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ș♥❞✐r❡❝t❧② ✱ t❤❡ ❞❛✐❧② ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ r✐s❦ ❛ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r✐s❦ ❛r❡ ♥♦t
❝♦♥st❛♥ t ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♥♦t ❛❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✬ tr❛❞❡ ❞❛✐❧② ✳ ❲ ❡ ❝❛♥ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ t❤❛t t❤❡ s♠❛❧❧❡r
t❤❡ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ r❡q✉✐r❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❡ ❜ ❡tt❡r ✭❛♥❞ ❢❛st❡r✮ ♣r✐❝❡s r❡❛❞❛♣t t♦
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳ ❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ❛♥ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ♦❢ ✺✪ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ r❡q✉✐r❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s✱ ✇✐❧❧
❝r❡❛t❡ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇❤❡r❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ✇✐❧❧ ✢✉❝t✉❛t❡ r❛♥❞♦♠❧② ✐♥ ❛ ✰✴✲ ✺✪ ❜❛♥❞ ❛r♦✉♥❞ t❤❡
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❲❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s t♦ ♦ ❝❧♦s❡ ✭❃✺✪✮ t♦ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♥♦t ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t❡❞ t♦ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❡✈ ❡♥
❝❧♦s❡r✳ ș❢ ✇ ❡ ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ♠❛❦ ❡ t❤❡ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ r❡q✉✐r❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ❝♦♥st❛♥ t r✐s❦
❛ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❛ ♣r♦ ①② ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r✐s❦ ✭❧✐❦ ❡ ♣❛st ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ②✮ ✇ ❡ ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ❜ ❡ r❡♣ ❡❛t✐♥❣
❦♥♦ ✇♥ ❞❡s✐❣♥ ♠✐st❛❦ ❡s ❜ ② ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝✐♥❣ ❡①♣❧✐❝✐t ❛✉t♦ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ r❡t✉r♥ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ②
✭s❡❡ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ❢♦r ♠♦r❡ ❞❡t❛✐❧s✮✳
❲ ❡ ❝❛♥ r❡✇r✐t❡ t❤❡ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s✱ ❢r♦♠ st❡♣s ✸ ❛♥❞ ✹ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r str❛t❡❣② ✱ ✐♥ ❛ r❡t✉r♥ ❢♦r♠✳ ❚❤✐s ✇✐❧❧ s❤♦ ✇ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❛♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ tr❛❞❡r t❛❦ ❡s
❛ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❤✐s ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s✿
✶✳ ✳✳✳
✷✳ ✳✳✳
✸✳ ș❢Et(rt+1)<0 ❛♥❞|Et(rt+1)|> rx,min t❤❡♥ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❧✐♠✐t s❡❧❧ ♦r❞❡r
✹✳ ș❢Et(rt+1)>0 ❛♥❞|Et(rt+1)|> rx,min t❤❡♥ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❧✐♠✐t ❜✉② ♦r❞❡r
ș♥ ♦t❤❡r ✇ ♦r❞s✱ s✉❝ ❤ ❛ tr❛❞❡r ❝♦♥s✐❞❡rs t❤❛t ✐❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s t♦ ♦ ❢❛r ❢r♦♠
t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ t❤❛♥ ✐t ✇✐❧❧ ✐♥ t❡r✈ ❡♥❡ ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ♣r♦✜t ♦✛ ♦❢ t❤✐s ❣❛♣✳ ❲❤❡♥
❜ ❡tt✐♥❣ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐❧❧ ❛❞❥✉st t♦ ✇ ❛r❞s t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞
tr❛❞❡r ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡s t❤❛t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ♦♥❝❡ ❛❣❛✐♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ❛♥❞ t❤❡② ✇✐❧❧ s♦ ♦♥ ❝♦r✲
r❡❝t❧② ♣r✐❝❡ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✳ ❋ ♦r t❤✐s r❡❛s♦♥✱ t❤❡s❡ tr❛❞❡rs ❛r❡ t❤❡ ♦♥❡s t❤❛t ❝♦♥❢r♦♥ t t❤❡
❝r♦ ✇❞✲❢♦r♠❡❞ tr❡♥❞s ❛♥❞ ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝❡ st❛❜✐❧✐③✐♥❣ ❡✛❡❝t ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❚❤✐s ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r
✐s ♦♣♣ ♦s✐t❡ t♦ t❤❛t ♦❢ ❛♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t♦r ✇❤♦ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡s t♦ ❣♦ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❝r♦ ✇❞ ❡✈ ❡♥
t❤♦✉❣❤ ❤❡ ❤❛s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t s❤♦ ✇s ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛r❡ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✳
ș♥ ♦♣♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ t♦ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇ ❡ ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝❡ t❤❡ t ②♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢
✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ s♣ ❡ ❝✉❧❛t♦rs ✳ ❚❤❡s❡ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛❝❝❡ss t♦ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ♦❢✱ ❜✐❛s❡❞✱
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛s ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❚❤❡② ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ r❡s♦✉r❝❡s ❜ ♦t❤ ✐♥ ❝❛s❤ ❛♥❞
❛ss❡ts ❛♥❞ t❤❡② ❛❧s♦ s❤❛r❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❝❛♣❛❝✐t ② ❢♦r ❢♦r❡❝❛st✐♥❣ ❛ ❝♦♥✜❞❡♥❝❡ ✐♥ t❡r✈ ❛❧ ❢♦r
t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ♣r✐❝❡✳ ❚❤❡ ♦♥❧② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡s❡ t ✇ ♦ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ tr❛❞❡r
t ②♣ ❡s ❧✐❡s ✐♥ t❤❡✐r ❝♦♥❝❡♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ș♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡
t❤❛t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛r❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ❜✉t ❝❛♥ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ♠❛❦ ❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠✐st❛❦ ❡s✳ ❲❤❡♥ t❤❡s❡
♠✐st❛❦ ❡s ♦ ❝❝✉r✱ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ tr❛❞❡rs st❡♣ ✐♥ ❛♥❞ ❛❝t ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝♦rr❡❝t✐♥❣ t❤❡
❡rr♦r✿ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦ ✈ ❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡s ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs s❡❧❧ ❛♥❞ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡
♠❛r❦ ❡t ✉♥❞❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡s ❛♥ ❛ss❡t t❤❡② ❜✉② ✳ ❖♥ t❤❡ ♦t❤❡r ❤❛♥❞✱ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ s♣ ❡ ❝✉❧❛t♦rs
❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ t❤❛t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛r❡ ♥♦t t❤❛t ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ❛♥❞ ❛ss❡ts ❛r❡ ♠✐s♣r✐❝❡❞ ❢♦r ❧♦♥❣ ✉♥✐♥✲
t❡rr✉♣t❡❞ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ♥♦t ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ❣♦ ❛❣❛✐♥st t❤❡

✶✵✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺✳ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮
♠❛r❦❡t tr❡♥❞✱ ❡✈❡♥ ✐❢ t❤❡✐r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❡❧❧s t❤❡♠ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧❧②
✇r♦♥❣✳ ❚❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧❧② ✱ ✐t ✐s ♣♦ss✐❜❧❡ t❤❛t t❤❡s❡ s♣❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛
♣♦s✐t✐✈❡ ❢❡❡❞❜❛❝❦ ❧♦♦♣ t♦ r❡✐♥❢♦r❝❡ ❛♥❞ s✉st❛✐♥ ❛ tr❡♥❞ ✐♥ ♠❛r❦❡t ✭♣r♦✈✐❞❡❞ t❤❡② ❛❝t
❛t t❤❡ s❛♠❡ t✐♠❡✮✳ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥t ❢r♦♠ ♦t❤❡r s♣❡❝✉❧❛t♦r ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭❧✐❦❡ t❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧ tr❛❞❡rs✮
t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ s♣❡❝✉❧❛t♦rs tr❛❞❡ ❛t ✐♥❝♦rr❡❝t ♣r✐❝❡s ♦♥❧② t♦ ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ♣♦✐♥t✳ ❆❢t❡r ❛
♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❧✐♠✐t✱ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ s♣❡❝✉❧❛t♦rs ❞❡❝✐❞❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐s t♦♦ ❢❛r ❛✇❛② ❢r♦♠
t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ș♥ ✺✳✼ ✇❡ s❤♦✇ t❤❡ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡t
t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s ✐♥ ❛ ❤②♣♦t❤❡t✐❝❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ❤♦✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ s♣❡❝✉❧❛t♦rs
❣❡t ✐♥✈♦❧✈❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✺✳✼✿ ❙♣❡❝✉❧❛t♦rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✭❣r❡❡♥✮ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡t
♣r✐❝❡ ✭r❡❞✮
❚❤❡ ❣r❡❡♥ ❧✐♥❡ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ts t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ r❡❞ ❧✐♥❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✈ ❛❧✉❡
♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✳ ❆❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ t❤❡✐r str❛t❡❣✐❡s✱ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❡♥t❡r
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❛♥❞ ✇✐❧❧ st❛rt s❡❧❧✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ✭✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ❧♦✇❡r ✐ts ✈ ❛❧✉❡ t♦✇❛r❞s t❤❡
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ t❛❦❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ Pt ✇✐❧❧
❜❡ ❛r♦✉♥❞ t❤❡ rmin t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞ ✭❛♥ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥✮✳ ❚❤❡ s❡❧❧✐♥❣
♦r❞❡rs ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ♣r❡ss ♦♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐♥ ❛♥ ❡✛♦rt t♦ ❧♦✇❡r t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡✱
✇❤✐❝❤ ✐s ❛❜♦✈❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ș♥ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ t✐♠❡✱ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ s♣❡❝✉❧❛t♦rs
❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦ st❛rt ❛❝t✐♥❣ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❜✉t ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥ ♣r♦♣♦s❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t✿
❛✇❛② ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❚❤❡s❡ s♣❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥s✱ ♦❢ ❜✉②✐♥❣ ❡✈❡♥ ✐❢ t❤❡
❛ss❡t ✐s ♦✈❡r♣r✐❝❡❞✱ ❝❛♥ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡ ❛❝t✉❛❧ tr❡♥❞✳ ❙✉❝❤ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ❡①❡❝✉t❡❞ ♦♥❧② ✐❢
t❤❡ s♣❡❝✉❧❛t♦rs ❜❡❧✐❡✈❡ t❤❡② ❝❛♥ ♣r♦✜t ♦✛ t❤✐s ♦♣❡r❛t✐♦♥✳ ❇✉t ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ s♣❡❝✉❧❛t♦rs
❝❛♥ ♣r♦✜t ♦✛ s✉❝❤ ❛ tr❡♥❞ ✐❢ t❤❡② ❜✉② ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧ ❛❣❛✐♥st ✐t ❛❢t❡r

✺✳✹✳ ❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts✱ t❤❡✐r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ✶✵✶
s♦♠❡ t✐♠❡✳ ș♥❞❡❡❞✱ t❤❡s❡ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❣♦ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❢♦r s♦♠❡ t✐♠❡ ❛♥❞
❛❢t❡r t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ t♦ ♦ ❢❛r ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧s✱ ❧✐❦ ❡ ♣❛ss✐♥❣ ♦ ✈ ❡r t❤❡
❘max t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞✱ t❤❡② ✇✐❧❧ tr② t♦ ❝❧♦s❡ t❤❡✐r ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥s✳ ❆ t t❤✐s ♣ ♦✐♥ t t❤❡ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t♦rs
✇✐❧❧ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ s✐♠✐❧❛r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❛s t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❙♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t♦r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥
❜ ❡ ✈✐❡✇ ❡❞ ❛s ❛ ❤ ②❜r✐❞ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭✇✐t❤ ❛ ❤✐❣❤ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞
r❡t✉r♥✮ ❛♥❞ ✉♥✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t♦rs ✭❝ ❤❛rt✐sts t❤❛t ❛♠♣❧✐❢② ♠❛r❦ ❡t tr❡♥❞s ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡
♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ✐s ♥♦t ❢✉❧✜❧❧❡❞✮✳
❚❤❡ s❡❝♦♥❞ ♠❛ ❥♦r t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ ♣r♦✜t✲♠♦t✐✈ ❛t❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✐s r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ✉♥✲
✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ♥♦t ❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞
✐♥❞✐❝❛t♦r ❢♦r ❢♦r❡❝❛st✐♥❣ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠♦ ✈ ❡s✳ ❚❤❡② ❥✉st✐❢② t❤✐s ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢ ✐♥ t ✇ ♦ ✇ ❛ ②s✿
✶✳ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❛❧r❡❛❞② ✐♥ t❡❣r❛t❡❞ ✐♥ t♦ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ♠♦ ✈ ❡♠❡♥ ts
❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ♠♦♠❡♥ ts ✇❤❡♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s r❡❧❡❛s❡❞ ❛r❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡❞ ❜ ② ♠❛r✲
❦ ❡t ✧♣s②❝ ❤♦❧♦❣②✧ ♦r ✷✳ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts r❛r❡❧② ✉s❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✐♥st❡❛❞ t❤❡②
❝♦♥❝❡✐✈ ❡ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❢❛st ♣r♦✜ts✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡② ❤♦❧❞ s✉❝ ❤ ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s✱
✉♥✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦ ♥♦t tr② t♦ ♦❜t❛✐♥ ❛♥❞ ✉s❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ș♥st❡❛❞
t❤❡② ❝♦♥str✉❝t ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧✱ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♦r ♦t❤❡r ❢♦r♠s ♦❢ ✐♥❞✐❝❛t♦rs t❤❛t ❤❡❧♣ t❤❡♠
❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✬♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t✐❡s✬✳
ș♥s✐❞❡ ♦✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r✱ ✇ ❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧❧❡❞ t❤❡s❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ❛❧s♦ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✧❝ ❤❛rt✐sts✧✱ ✉s✐♥❣
s✐♠♣❧❡ ♠❡♠♦r② ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡ tr❡♥❞s ✐♥s✐❞❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s✳ ❊❛❝ ❤
✉♥✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❤❛s t ✇ ♦ str❛t❡❣② ♠❛♣s ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❧❡♥❣t❤ ♦❢ ❙✳ ❊❛❝ ❤ str❛t❡❣② ❤❛s
❙ ✉♥✐ts ❜ ❡❧❧♦ ✇✐♥❣ t♦ ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ st❛t❡s [−1,0,1] ✳ ❊❛❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❤❛s t ✇ ♦ str❛t❡❣✐❡s✿
♦♥❡ str❛t❡❣② ✐s ✉s❡❞ t♦ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡ ❛ ❜✉②✐♥❣ s✐❣♥❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❛♥♦t❤❡r t♦ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡ ❛ s❡❧❧✐♥❣
s✐❣♥❛❧✳ ❚❤❡ str❛t❡❣② ❝♦♥✜❣✉r❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡❞ r❛♥❞♦♠❧② ❢♦r ❡❛❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❛t t❤❡
❜ ❡❣✐♥♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ✇ ❡ ❛r❡ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❛❝t✐✈ ❡ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣✱ s❡❡
❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✱ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❞✉r✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡♥ t✐r❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥✳
❆ str❛t❡❣② ♦❢ ❧❡♥❣t❤ ✸ ❝❛♥ ❧♦ ♦❦ ❧✐❦ ❡✿
Strategy 1= [1,1,−1]
Strategy 2= [−1,−1,0]
❚❤❡ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡rs [−1,0,1] r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t ♣r♦♣ ❡rt✐❡s ❬♥❡❣❛t✐✈ ❡✱ ✐♥❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t✱ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡❪
t❤❛t r❡t✉r♥s ♠ ✉st ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t♦ ❛❝t✐✈ ❡ ❛ str❛t❡❣② ✳ ❊❛❝ ❤ str❛t❡❣② s❡t ✐s ❝♦♥❢r♦♥ t❡❞ ✇✐t❤
t❤❡ ❤✐st♦r② ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞ ✐❢ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ♣r♦♣ ❡rt✐❡s ♠❛t❝ ❤ t❤❛♥ t❤❡ str❛t❡❣② ✐s ❛❝t✐✈ ❛t❡❞✳
❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ❛t t✐♠❡ t✱ Strategy 1 ✐s ❛❝t✐✈ ❛t❡❞ ✐❢ rt−2>0 ❛♥❞rt−1>0 ❛♥❞rt>0 ✳
❙tr❛t❡❣② 2 ✐s ❛❝t✐✈ ❛t❡❞ ✐❢ rt−2<0 ❛♥❞rt−1<0 ✳
❉❡♣ ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ t❤❡ str❛t❡❣②✬s ♣✉r♣ ♦s❡✱ t❤❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st ✇✐❧❧ ❡✐t❤❡r s❡❧❧ ♦r ❜✉② st♦ ❝ ❦s
✇❤❡♥ ❤✐s str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❛r❡ ❛❝t✐✈ ❛t❡❞✳ ❍✐s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❛❝t✐♦♥ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ❡①❡❝✉t❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❧✐♠✐t
♦r❞❡rs✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts ❞♦♥✬t ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✱ ❜✉t
♦♥❧② t❤❡ ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♠♦ ✈ ❡♠❡♥ ts✱ t❤❡② ✇✐❧❧ tr② t♦ s❡❧❧✴❜✉② ❛t ✧❣♦ ♦ ❞✧ ♣r✐❝❡s✳
❙♦ t❤❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts ✇✐❧❧ s❡♥❞ ❧✐♠✐t ❜✉②✴s❡❧❧ ♦r❞❡rs ❛t t❤❡ ❧❛st ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ♣❧✉s✴♠✐♥ ✉s
❛ r❛♥❞♦♠ ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡✳
❇✉②✐♥❣ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡ s❡♥ t ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ Ask=Pt−˜x ❛♥❞ t❤❡ s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡

✶✵✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺✳ ❈♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✲ ❖✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✭▲❯▼❆✮
Bid=Pt+ ˜x ✇❤❡r❡˜x∈N(µc,σc)✳ ❚❤✐s ♠❡t❤♦❞ ❡♥s✉r❡s t❤❛t ❝❤❛rt✐sts ❛❧✇❛②s
tr② t♦ ❣❡t ♦✉t ❛s ♠✉❝❤ ❛s ♣♦ss✐❜❧❡ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡✐r tr❛❞❡s ✭❜✉②✐♥❣ ❧♦✇ ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❤✐❣❤✮✳
▼♦r❡♦✈❡r✱ ✐t ❛❧s♦ ❛❧❧♦✇s ♦r❞❡rs t❤❛t ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❛❧✇❛②s ❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡✳
❲✐t❤ t❤✐s s✐♠♣❧❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣r♦❝❡❞✉r❡ ❝❤❛rt✐sts ❝❛♥ ❞❡t❡❝t ❛♥❞ ♣r♦✜t ♦✛ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡t
♣❛tt❡r♥s✳ ▼♦r❡♦✈❡r✱ ✐❢ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ ❝❤❛rt✐sts ❤❛✈❡ s✐♠✐❧❛r str❛t❡❣✐❡s✱ t❤❡✐r ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✇✐❧❧
❝r❡❛t❡ s❡❧❢✲❢✉❧✜❧❧✐♥❣ ♣r♦♣❤❡❝✐❡s✳
❙tr❛t❡❣② ♦❢ ✉♥✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❛❣❡♥ t ①
ș♥♣✉ts ✿ ❇✉②✐♥❣ ❙tr❛t❡❣② Sb✱ ❙❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❙tr❛t❡❣② Ss✱µc✱σc
❆ ❝t✐♦♥s ✿
✶✳ ș❢ ❜✉②✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣② Sb ✐s ❛❝t✐✈ ❛t❡❞ t❤❡♥ s❡♥❞ ❧✐♠✐t ❜✉② ♦r❞❡r ❛t ♣r✐❝❡
P=Pt−N(µc,σc)
✷✳ ș❢ s❡❧❧✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣② ❙ s ✐s ❛❝t✐✈ ❛t❡❞ t❤❡♥ s❡♥❞ ❧✐♠✐t s❡❧❧ ♦r❞❡r ❛t ♣r✐❝❡
P=Pt+N(µc,σc)
✺✳✺ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ❝♦♥✜❣✉r❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs
❲ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡❞ t❤❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥ts ♦❢ ♦✉r ▲❯▼❆ ♠❛r❦❡t s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r✿ t❤❡ ❡❝♦✲
♥♦♠✐❝ ❡♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t✱ t❤❡ ✢♦✇ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ str❛t❡✲
❣✐❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ❖✉r r❡s❡❛r❝❤ t♦♦❧ ✐s ❢❛✐r❧② ❝♦♠♣❧❡① ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐t ✐s
✐♥t❡♥❞❡❞ t♦ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❛ ❤✐❣❤❧② ❝♦♠♣❧❡① r❡❛❧ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✿ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❙✐♥❝❡ ♦✉r ❣♦❛❧
✐s t♦ ❤❛✈❡ ❛ ♣❛rs✐♠♦♥✐♦✉s ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇❡ ♠❛❞❡ ❡✛♦rts t♦ ❧✐♠✐t t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r
♦❢ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs t♦ ❜❡ ✉s❡❞ ✐♥ ❝✉st♦♠✐③✐♥❣ ♦✉r s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡
✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ♣❛rts ♦❢ t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡❞ ✐♥t♦ ❢♦✉r ❝❛t❡❣♦r✐❡s✿
• ❆ss❡t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs
✕ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❞❛✐❧② ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ r❡t✉r♥ ❛♥❞ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t②✿ µV,σV
• ❆❣❡♥ t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs
✕ ♣r♦♣♦rt✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥t t②♣❡s✿ ✪ ✉♥✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞✱ ✪ t❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧✱ ✪ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞✱ ✪
s♣❡❝✐❛❧ t②♣❡s
✕ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❜✐❛s ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs a∈[amin,amax] ❛♥❞b∈
[bmin,bmax]
✕ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s ❢♦r ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ tr❛❞❡rs
rmin∈[Rmin,Rmax]
✕ str❛t❡❣② ❧❡♥❣t❤ ❢♦r ❝❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs✱ ❙
✕ ♠❡❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❞✐s♣❡rs✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ q✉♦t❡s ❢♦r ❝❤❛rt✐sts✱ µC ❛♥❞σC

✺✳✺✳ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ❝♦♥✜❣✉r❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✶✵✸
• ▼❛r❦ ❡t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs
✕ ❚ ♦t❛❧ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ts✱ ◆
✕ ❙t❛rt✐♥❣ ✇❡❛❧t❤ ❛♥❞ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ts
❚❤✐s ❣❡♥❡r✐❝ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r s❡t ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡s t❤❡ ✐♥♣✉ts t♦ ♦✉r ▲❯▼❆ ♠❛r❦❡t s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r✳
ș♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✇❡ ✉s❡ t❤❡ ▲❯▼❆ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r t♦ ❛♥s✇❡r ♦✉r r❡s❡❛r❝❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s✳
❚❤❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤ t❛❦❡♥ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ t♦ ✜♥❞ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t s❡tt✐♥❣s ❝♦♥✜❣✉r❛t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ✇✐❧❧
❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ❞❡s✐r❡❞ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦✉rs✳ ❆❢t❡r ✜♥❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✬s❡❡❞✬ s❡tt✐♥❣s✱ ♦r r❛♥❣❡ ♦❢
s❡tt✐♥❣s✱ ✇❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ✇❤❛t t❤❡ ❡♠❡r❣❡♥t ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s ❛r❡ ❛♥❞ ❤♦✇ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ♣❛rts ♦❢
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✐♥t❡r❛❝t ❛♥❞ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ❢❡❛t✉r❡s ✐♥ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ♠❛r❦❡t s❡r✐❡s✳

❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻
❆♥s✇❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
❈♦♥t❡♥ts
✻✳✶ Pr♦ ♦❢ ♦❢ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t ✈ ❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥s ✲ ❇❡♥❝ ❤♠❛r❦ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✺
✻✳✷ ❇✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✸
✻✳✷✳✶ ❇✐❛s❡s ✐♥ ✈ ♦❧✈✐♥❣ ❧❛❣s ✐♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✹
✻✳✸ ❱ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ✧st ②❧✐③❡❞✧ ❢❛❝ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✾
✻✳✹ ❇✉❜❜❧❡s✿ ❤♦ ✇ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ❣r♦ ✇ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥✲
t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✽
✻✳✺ ❙✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✼
❚❤✐s ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✐s ❞❡❞✐❝❛t❡❞ t♦ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ▲❯▼❆ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ❛♥❞ ❛♥s✇❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡✲
s❡❛r❝❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s✳ ❋ ♦r ❡❛❝❤ r❡s❡❛r❝❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥ ✇❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐❣❛t❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ♣♦ss✐❜❧❡ ❝❛✉s❡s
♦❢ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝❤❡❞ ❡✛❡❝ts✳ ❚❤r♦✉❣❤ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇❡ s❤♦✇ t❤❡ ❝❛✉s❛❧ ❧✐♥❦s ❜❡t✇❡❡♥
✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s✳
✻✳✶ Pr♦♦❢ ♦❢ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t ✈ ❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥s ✲ ❇❡♥❝❤♠❛r❦ s✐♠✉❧❛✲
t✐♦♥s
❚ ♦ t❡st t❤❛t ♦✉r ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥s ♣r♦♣❡r❧② ✱ ✇❡ ♠❛❦❡ ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡
t❡sts t❤❛t ❤❛✈❡ t❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ♣r♦♣❡rt✐❡s✿
✶✳ t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧❧❡❞ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ❡❛s✐❧② ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡❞
✷✳ t❤❡ ❧✐♥❦ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ✐♥♣✉t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
♠❛r❦❡t ♦✉t♣✉ts ❛r❡ ✐♥t✉✐t✐✈❡
❲ ❡ r✉♥ s✉❝❤ t❡sts t♦ ✈❡r✐❢② t❤❛t t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ❤❛s ♥♦t ❣♦t ❛♥② ❡♥❞♦❣❡♥♦✉s ❢❛✉❧t②
♦r ✉♥♣r❡❞✐❝t❛❜❧❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r✳ ❆❧s♦✱ ✇❡ t❡st t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t♥❡ss ♦❢ ❡❛❝❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t
❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥ts ♦❢ t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ✭♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❜✐❛s✱ ❛❣❡♥t ♦r❞❡rs✮✳ ❚❤❡s❡
t❡sts ✇✐❧❧ ❤❡❧♣ t❤❡ r❡❛❞❡r ❜❡❝♦♠❡ ♠♦r❡ ❢❛♠✐❧✐❛r ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ s❡tt✐♥❣s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ✉s❛❣❡ ♦❢
t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r✳ ▲❛t❡r ♦♥ ✐t ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ s✐♠♣❧❡r t♦ ♣❡r❢♦r♠ ❛♥❞ ✈❡r✐❢② ♠♦r❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① t❡sts✳
ș♥ ♦✉r ✜rst t❡st ✇❡ s❡❡ t❤❡ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
✐♥ t❤❡ ❛❜s❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❛♥② tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥ts✳ ▲✐❦❡ ✐♥ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ t❡sts✱ ♦✉r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧

✶✵✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐❧❧ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❞❛✐❧② r❡t✉r♥ ❣♦ ✈ ❡r♥❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs µV ❛♥❞σV ✳ ❘✉♥♥✐♥❣ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❛❣❡♥ ts ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t t❤❡r❡
❛r❡ ♥♦t tr❛❞❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❝♦♥st❛♥ t ❛♥❞ ❡q✉❛❧ t♦ t❤❡ ✜rst ♣r❡✲s❡t ♣r✐❝❡
P0 ✭✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐s t❤❡ ș✴❖ ♣r✐❝❡✮✳ ❋ ♦r ❡✈ ❡r② s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ t❡st ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ ❛ t❛❜❧❡ ✇✐t❤
t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ♦❢ t❤❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥✳ ❲❤❡♥ s♦♠❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛r❡ ♥♦t ♥❡❡❞❡❞ ✭❧✐❦ ❡
❛❣❡♥ t✲s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ✐♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡✮ t❤❡② ✇✐❧❧ ♥♦t ❜ ❡ ❧✐st❡❞ ✐♥ t❤✐s s❡tt✐♥❣s t❛❜❧❡✳
❇② ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡s❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥s ✇ ❡ ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❡❛s✐❧② ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❧✐♥❦
❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ ✐♥♣✉ts ❛♥❞ ♦✉t♣✉ts ♦❢ t❤❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ♦❧✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶ ✇ ❡ ❧✐st t❤❡
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥✬s ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r t❤✐s ✜rst ❜ ❡♥❝ ❤♠❛r❦ t❡st✳
❲ ❡ r✉♥ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛♥❞ ✇ ❡ ✜① t❤❡ st❛rt✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡
✭❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮ ❛t ✹✵✳ ❆s ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞✱ ♥♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐♠♣❧✐❡s ♥♦ tr❛❞❡s ❛♥❞
t❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ♥♦ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❛❢t❡r t❤❡ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ ♣✉❜❧✐❝ ♦✛❡r✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡✳
❚❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✢✉❝t✉❛t❡s r❛♥❞♦♠❧② ❛♥❞ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇s ❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥✳
❙✐♥❝❡ t❤❡r❡ ✐s ♥♦ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ✐♥ ✉s✐♥❣ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥s t❤✐s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝
✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥✳ ❲ ❡ r✉♥ ❛ s❡❝♦♥❞ ❜ ❡♥❝ ❤♠❛r❦ t❡st ✉s✐♥❣
t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛s ❜ ❡❢♦r❡ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❡①❝❡♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts✳ ◆♦✐s❡ tr❛❞❡rs ✭t❤❛t
s❡♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜✉②✴s❡❧❧ ♦r❞❡rs ❛t r❛♥❞♦♠ t✐♠❡s✮ ❛r❡ ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝❡❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts ❛r❡
s✐♠✐❧❛r ❛s ❜ ❡❢♦r❡✳ ❆s ❝♦♥✜r♠❡❞ ❜ ② ❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦ ♦✱ ▼❛t❤✐❡✉✱ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✭✷✵✶✵✮✱ ♥♦✐s❡
tr❛❞❡rs ✭♦r ❩❡r♦ ș♥ t❡❧❧✐❣❡♥❝❡ ❚ r❛❞❡rs✮ ❛r❡ ♥♦t s✉✣❝✐❡♥ t t♦ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ r❡❛❧✐st✐❝ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♥♦ tr❛❞❡r s❡♥❞s ♣r✐❝❡ q✉♦t❡s t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✭♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡rs✮
t❤❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ♥♦t ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡✳ ❚ ♦ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s
✇ ❡ ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ❛t ❧❡❛st ❛ ❢❡✇ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❛t ❝❛♥ s❡♥❞ ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡rs t♦
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳
❲ ❡ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❛ ❜ ❡♥❝ ❤♠❛r❦ t❡st ✇✐t❤ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ♣r♦✜t✲♠♦t✐✈ ❛t❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳
❚❤❡s❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦♥✬t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛♥ ② ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡② ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❢✉♥❞❛✲
♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ t❤❡s❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❡♥❣❛❣❡ ✐♥ ❛❝t✐♦♥s t♦ ♠♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡
t♦ ✇ ❛r❞s t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡s❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts ♠❛❦ ❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s t❤❡②
❛r❡ ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ tr❛❞❡ ✐❢ t❤❡ ♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ ✐s ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡✳
❲ ❡ r✉♥ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❛t tr❛❞✐♥❣ t❛❦ ❡s
♣❧❛❝❡✳ ❚❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇s ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳ ❙✐♥❝❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❦♥♦ ✇ ❡①❛❝t❧② t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✱ ❛♥❞ t❤❡② ❡①♣ ❡❝t ❛t ❧❡❛st ✵✪ r❡t✉r♥s✱ t❤❡②
✇✐❧❧ s❡♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs t♦ ❜✉② ♦r s❡❧❧ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ❛t ❡①❛❝t❧② t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳
P ❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❱ ❛❧✉❡ ❊①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥
µV ✵✪ ◆♦ ❧♦♥❣✲t❡r♠ ❣r♦ ✇t❤ ✐♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡
σV ✶✪ ✶✪ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛✲
♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ r❡t✉r♥
◆ ✶✵✵✵ ◆✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❛ ②s
◆r ❛❣❡♥ ts ✵ ◆♦ ❛❣❡♥ ts
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✿ ✴ ❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢♦r ❚ ❡st ✶✱ ✜rst ❜ ❡♥❝ ❤♠❛r❦ t❡st ✭♥♦ ❛❣❡♥ ts✮

✻✳✶✳ Pr♦ ♦❢ ♦❢ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t ✈ ❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥s ✲ ❇❡♥❝ ❤♠❛r❦ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✶✵✼
0 100 200 300 400 50014 16 18 20 22 24 26
TimePricesFundamental Value
Market Price
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✶✿ ❘❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈❡ r❡s✉❧t ✲ ▼❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✭r❡❞✮ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✭❜❧❛❝❦✮
❢♦r ❚ ❡st ✶ ✲ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛r❦ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
P ❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❱ ❛❧✉❡ ❊①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥
µV ✵✪ ◆♦ ❣r♦✇t❤ ✐♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
σV ✶✪ ✶✪ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥
◆ ✶✵✵ ◆✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❛②s
◆r ❛❣❡♥ts ✷✵✵ ✶✵✵✪ ș♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
▼✐♥✐♠✉♠
❡①♣❡❝t❡❞
r❡t✉r♥rmin✵✪ ✵ ❢♦r ❛❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
❇✐❛s ❛p ✶ ș♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ♣❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❇✐❛s ❜ p ✵
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✿ ❙✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢♦r ❚ ❡st ✷ ✇✐t❤ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t❤❛t
❞♦ ♥♦t s♣❡❝✉❧❛t❡

✶✵✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
0 100 200 300 400 50014 16 18 20 22 24 26
TimePricesFundamental Value
Market Price
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✷✿ ❘❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈❡ r❡s✉❧t ❢♦r ❚ ❡st ✷✿ ❋ ✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✭❜❧❛❝❦✮ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡
✭r❡❞✮ ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐t❤ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
❚ r❛❞✐♥❣ ✐s ♣❧❡♥t✐❢✉❧❧② s✐♥❝❡ ❛❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❤❛♣♣② t♦ ❜✉② ♦r s❡❧❧ ❛t t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ș❢ ✇❡ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❡ r✐s❦ ❛✈❡rs✐♦♥ ❢❛❝t♦rs ✭r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❡❞ ❜② ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥
✵✪ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥✮ t❤❡♥ t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ tr② t♦ s❡❧❧✴❜✉② ❢♦r ❛ ♣r♦✜t✳ ❚❤✐s
✐s s✐♠✐❧❛r t♦ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝✐♥❣ ❛ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥ ❝♦st ❈ ♣❛②❛❜❧❡ ❜② ❜♦t❤ ♣❛rts ✐♥ ❛ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥✳
❆❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ ❜✉② t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ❛t ❛ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥t❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡✱ Pt−C ✱ ♦r s❡❧❧ ✐t
❛tPt+C ✭✇❤❡r❡Pt ✐s t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✮✳ ș♥ t❤✐s s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥
❛❧❧ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✇♦✉❧❞ st♦♣ s✐♥❝❡ ♥♦ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ✇♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ ❜✉②✴s❡❧❧ ❛t ❛ ❧♦ss✳
Pr♦♣♦s✐t✐♦♥ ✶ ✳ ❲ ❡ s❛② t❤❛t ✐♥ ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡t✱ ♣ ♦♣✉❧❛t❡ ❞ ♦♥❧② ❜② r ❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛♥❞
♣ ❡r❢❡ ❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✱ tr ❛❞✐♥❣ ❝ ❛♥ ♦ ❝ ❝✉r ♦♥❧② ✐♥ t❤❡ ❛❜s❡♥❝ ❡ ♦❢ tr ❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥
❝ ♦sts✳
ș❢ ♥♦ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥ ❝♦sts ✭♦r r✐s❦ ❛✈❡rs✐♦♥ ♦r ♣❡r❝❡✐✈❡❞ ♠❛r❦❡t r✐s❦s✮ ❡①✐st✱ t❤❡
♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ❦❡♣t ❡q✉❛❧ t♦ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ✬st②❧✐③❡❞
❢❛❝ts✬✱ ❞✐s❝✉ss❡❞ ✐♥ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✱ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❛ttr✐❜✉t❡❞ t♦ t❤❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✭s✐♥❝❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❞♦❡s ♥♦t ♠❛❦❡ ❛♥② ♠♦❞✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦♥ t❤✐s ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮✳ ș❢ t❤✐s ✐s ♥♦t
tr✉❡ ♦r ♥♦t ✈❡r✐✜❛❜❧❡ t❤❡♥ ✇❡ s❤♦✉❧❞ ❧♦♦❦ ❛t ♦t❤❡r ❢❛❝t♦rs ♦r ✐♥❣r❡❞✐❡♥ts t♦ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t
t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❞✐st♦rt ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ❝r❡❛t❡ ✬st②❧✐③❡❞✬ ❢❛❝ts✳ șt ✐s ❝❧❡❛r ♥♦✇ t❤❛t tr❛❞✐♥❣
❛✇❛② ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦r ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣r❡s❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥ ❝♦sts ❝❛♥ ♦♥❧②
t❛❦❡ ♣❧❛❝❡ ✐♥ ♠❛r❦❡ts ♣♦♣✉❧❛t❡❞ ❜② ♥♦♥✲r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♦r ♥♦t ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳
❲ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❣♦ ✐♥t♦ ♠♦r❡ ❞❡t❛✐❧s ❛❜♦✉t s✉❝❤ ♠❛r❦❡t ❝♦♠♣♦s✐t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ t❡sts✳
❚❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s t❡st ❛ss✉♠❡❞ t❤❛t ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇❡r❡ ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ tr❛❞❡ ✐❢ t❤❡②
❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ❛t ❧❡❛st ❛ ③❡r♦ r❡t✉r♥✱ rmin>0 ✳ ❇✉t ✇❤❛t ✇♦✉❧❞ ❤❛♣♣❡♥ ✐❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs

✻✳✶✳ Pr♦ ♦❢ ♦❢ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t ✈ ❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥s ✲ ❇❡♥❝ ❤♠❛r❦ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✶✵✾
✇♦✉❧❞ ❤❛✈❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s❄ ❆ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡❛s♦♥ ✇♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ t❤❛t ❛ st♦❝❦
s❤♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ str✐❝t❧② ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ❛ r✐s❦✲❢r❡❡ ❛ss❡t ✭✇❤✐❝❤ ♣❛②s ✵✪✮✳ ❲ ❡ ♠♦❞✐❢② t❤❡ ❧❛st
t❡st ❛♥❞ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❡ ❛ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡✐t② r❡❣❛r❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♠✐♥✐♠✉♠ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s
♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳
❆♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r i✱ ✇✐t❤ ❛ str✐❝t❧② ♣♦s✐t✐✈❡ ♠✐♥✐♠✉♠ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ ✭❛❧s♦ ✐♠♣❧②✐♥❣
r✐s❦ ❛✈❡rs✐♦♥✮✱ ✇✐❧❧ ❛❧✇❛②s tr② t♦ ❜✉② ❛t ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ Ft∗(1−rmin) ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧ ❛t ❛
♠✐♥✐♠✉♠ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ Ft∗(1+rmin)✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ❛❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✭t❤❡②
❛r❡ ♥♦t ❜✐❛s❡❞✮ ♥♦❜♦❞② ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ ❜❡ ❛ ❝♦✉♥t❡r♣❛rt② ✭s✐♥❝❡ ✐t ✇♦✉❧❞ ✐♠♣❧②
s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ♦r ❜✉②✐♥❣ ❛t ❛ ❧♦ss✮ ❛♥❞ ♥♦ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✇✐❧❧ ❤❛♣♣❡♥✳ ❚ ♦ ❛✈♦✐❞ t❤✐s s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥ ✇❡
❞❡❝✐❞❡ t❤❛t✱ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛ ❥♦r✐t② ♦❢ t❡sts✱ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❛❧❧ ❤❛✈❡ ❛ ♠✐♥✐♠✉♠
❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ ♦❢ ✵✪✳ ❚❤✐s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ♣♦ss✐❜❧❡ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥
✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭❡✈❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ♣❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮ ❛♥❞ ♠♦st ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❧② ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t
♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ♦♥❡ ✇❤❡r❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐❧❧ ♠♦✈❡ ❢❛st t♦✇❛r❞s t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ✭s✐♥❝❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❞♦ ♥♦t ❛s❦ ❢♦r r❡t✉r♥s ♦♥ r✐s❦✮✳
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♥♦ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ♣♦ss✐❜❧❡ ✇❤❡♥ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ r✐s❦ ❛✈❡rs❡
✭❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❛♥ ♣♦s✐t✐✈❡ rmin ✮ ✇❡ ❡①t❡♥❞ t❤❡ ✜rst ♣r♦♣♦s✐t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ s❛② t❤❛t✿
❋r♦♣♦s✐t✐♦♥ ✷✳ ș♥ ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡t✱ ♣ ♦♣✉❧❛t❡ ❞ ♦♥❧② ❜② r ❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♣ ❡r❢❡ ❝t❧②
✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✱ tr ❛❞✐♥❣ ❝ ❛♥ ♦ ❝ ❝✉r ♦♥❧② ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❛❜s❡♥❝ ❡ ♦❢ tr ❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥ ❝ ♦sts
❛♥❞ ♦♥❧② ❜ ❡t✇❡ ❡♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t❤❛t ❛r ❡ ♥♦t r✐s❦✲❛✈❡rs❡ ✭❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❛ ✵✪ rmin ✮✳
❚❤✐s ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐t ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡s ❛♥ ✐❞❡❛❧✐st✐❝ ❜✉t ✉♥❛tt❛✐♥❛❜❧❡
s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥✳ ș♥ r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✐s ♣❧❡♥t✐❢✉❧ ✐♥ s♣✐t❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ♦❢
♣r♦♣♦s✐t✐♦♥ ✷✳ ș♥ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✇❡ ❛❧✇❛②s ❤❛✈❡ ❝♦sts ❢♦r tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡
✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ tr❛❞❡ ♦♥❧② ✐❢ t❤❡② ❛r❡ ✇❡❧❧ ♣❛✐❞ ❢♦r t❤❡ r✐s❦ t❤❡② t❛❦❡ ✭t❤❡② ❛r❡ r✐s❦✲❛✈❡rs❡✱
rmin>0 ✮✳
❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ t❤❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ✇❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ ✐♥ r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✱ ✇❤❡r❡ ✐♥✲
❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ r✐s❦✲❛✈❡rs❡✱ ✐s ♣♦ss✐❜❧❡ ♦♥❧② ✐❢ ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ✐s tr✉❡✿
✶✳ ș♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❛❧✇❛②s r❛t✐♦♥❛❧
✷✳ ș♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❛❧❧ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞
✸✳ ❖t❤❡r t②♣❡s ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❡①✐st ✭❛s✐❞❡ t❤❛t ♦❢ ❛♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦r
t❤❛t tr✐❡s t♦ ♣r♦✜t ♦✉t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡
❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮✳
ș❢ ✇❡ r❡r✉♥ ❚ ❡st ✷ ✇✐t❤ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ❛ ✈ ❛r✐❡t② ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡s ✭ ap ❛♥❞bp ❛r❡ ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡✮
tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✇✐❧❧ ♣❧❡♥t✐❢✉❧✳ ș♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ✈❡rs✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ✧❝♦rr❡❝t✧ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ tr❛❞❡ ✲ ✐♥ ❛ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥ ❜♦t❤ ♣❛rt✐❡s ❜❡❧✐❡✈❡ ❡①✲♣♦st t❤❛t t❤❡②
❛r❡ ♠❛❦✐♥❣ ❛ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ tr❛❞❡✳ ❲ ❡ ❛❧s♦ t❡st ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ❝✮ ❛♥❞ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❡ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❡
t②♣❡s ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳
❋✐rst ✇❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t❡ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐t❤ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ r✐s❦✲❛✈❡rs❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛♥❞
♥♦✐s❡ tr❛❞❡rs✳ ❲ ❡ r❡♠✐♥❞ t❤❛t ♥♦✐s❡ tr❛❞❡rs ♦♥❧② s❡♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ♦r❞❡rs s♦ t❤❡② ✇✐❧❧

✶✶✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
P ❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❱ ❛❧✉❡ ❊①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥
µV ✵✪ ◆♦ ❣r♦ ✇t❤ ✐♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
σV ✶✪ ✶✪ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥
◆ ✶✵✵ ◆✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❛ ②s
◆r ❛❣❡♥ ts ✷✵✵ ✶✵✵✪ ș♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
▼✐♥✐♠ ✉♠
❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞
r❡t✉r♥rmin✭✵✪✱✶✵✪ ] ș♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠
r❡t✉r♥s ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ✵✪
❛♥❞ ❛ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ♦❢ ✶✵✪ ✭❞r❛ ✇♥ ❢r♦♠
❛♥ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❛t t❤❡ st❛rt
♦❢ ❡❛❝ ❤ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥✮
❇✐❛s ❛p ✶ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❇✐❛s ❜ p ✵
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✸✿ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢♦r ❛ t❡st ✇✐t❤ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❛t
❞♦ ♥♦t s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t❡
❜ ❡ ❝♦✉♥ t❡r♣❛rt ② t♦ t❤❡ ❜ ❡st ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡rs✳ ❆s r❡♣ ♦rt❡❞ ❜ ② ✭ ❇❧❛❝ ❦ ✱ ✶✾✽✻ ✮ s✉❝ ❤ ♥♦✐s❡
tr❛❞❡rs ❛r❡ ❡ss❡♥ t✐❛❧ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ② ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳
ș❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ ❛❝❝❡♣t❡❞ ✵✪ ♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s
t❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ❡q✉❛❧ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ș♥ t❤✐s s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥ tr❛❞✐♥❣
♦ ❝❝✉rs ❛♥❞ ♣r✐❝❡s ✢✉❝t✉❛t❡ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✭❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❡①♣ ❡❝t ❛ r❡t✉r♥ ♦♥ t❤❡✐r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❛♥❞ t❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ s❡❧❧ ❤✐❣❤❡r ♦r ❜✉② ❧♦ ✇ ❡r t❤❛♥ t❤❡
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ✇ ❛♥ t ❛ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞
r❡t✉r♥ t❤❡ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ♦❢ ♥♦✐s❡ tr❛❞❡rs ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ tr❛♥s❢❡rr❡❞ t♦ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳
❚❤❡ s♣ ❡❡❞ ♦❢ tr❛♥s❢❡r ❞❡♣ ❡♥❞s ♦♥ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✬s ✢✉❝t✉❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ♦♥ t❤❡
❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✬s ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s✳
❲ ❡ ❝❛♥ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❛t ♣r✐❝❡s ✢✉❝t✉❛t❡ ❛❧♦♥❣ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ș♥❢♦r♠❡❞
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s tr② t♦ s❡❧❧ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ ♦r ❜ ❡❧♦ ✇ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❞❡♣ ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥
t❤❡✐r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ r❡t✉r♥ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❚ r❛❞✐♥❣ ♦ ❝❝✉rs ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♥♦✐s❡ tr❛❞❡rs ❛❝t
❛s ❝♦✉♥ t❡r♣❛rt✐❡s✳ ❊✈ ❡♥ t✉❛❧❧② ✱ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ✐s tr❛♥s❢❡rr❡❞ ❢r♦♠ ♥♦✐s❡ t♦ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ tr❛❞❡rs✳
❲❤❡♥ ❛❧❧ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ✐s tr❛♥s❢❡rr❡❞ t♦ ✇ ❡❧❧✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ tr❛❞❡rs t❤❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✇✐❧❧ st♦♣ ✭❞✉❡
t♦ t❤❡ ❛❜s❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❝♦✉♥ t❡r♣❛rt✐❡s✮✳
ș♥ t❤❡ ❧❛st ❜ ❡♥❝ ❤♠❛r❦ t❡st ✇ ❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦♥❧② ✇✐t❤ t❡❝ ❤♥✐❝❛❧ tr❛❞❡rs✳
❚❤❡s❡ tr❛❞❡rs ❧♦ ♦❦ ❢♦r ❝❡rt❛✐♥ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ♣❛tt❡r♥s ♦❢ ♣❛st r❡t✉r♥s ✭❧✐❦ ❡ ✉♣✱ ✉♣✱ ❞♦ ✇♥ ♦r
❞♦ ✇♥✱ ✉♣✱ ❞♦ ✇♥✮ ❛♥❞ t❛❦ ❡ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ❛❝t✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤❡② ❛✐♠ t♦ ♣r❡❞✐❝t ❛♥❞ t❛❦ ❡ ❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡
♦❢ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ♠♦ ✈ ❡♠❡♥ ts✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ❦✐♥❞ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
✐s ✉s❡❧❡ss ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♥♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✉s❡s ✐t✳
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢s✱ ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts ❞♦ ♥♦ ✉s❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤❡②
❧♦ ♦❦ ❢♦r ✧♣❛tt❡r♥s✧ ✐♥ r❡t✉r♥ s❡r✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ t❤❡s❡ ♣❛tt❡r♥s r❡♣ ❡❛t t❤❡♠s❡❧✈ ❡s✳
❆s ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ s❡❡ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✺ t❤❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts ❛r❡ ❝♦ ♦r❞✐♥❛t✐♥❣ ♦♥ tr❡♥❞ ♣❛tt❡r♥s✳ ❖♥❝❡
t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞r♦♣s t ✇ ♦ ♦r t❤r❡❡ t✐♠❡s ✐♥ ❛ r♦ ✇✱ s♦♠❡ tr❛❞❡rs ✇✐❧❧ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡✐r s❡❧❧✐♥❣
r✉❧❡ ❛❝t✐✈ ❛t❡❞ ❛♥❞ ✇✐❧❧ st❛rt s❡❧❧✐♥❣✳ ❚❤❡s❡ s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✇✐❧❧ ♠♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞♦ ✇♥

✻✳✶✳ Pr♦ ♦❢ ♦❢ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t ✈ ❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥s ✲ ❇❡♥❝ ❤♠❛r❦ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✶✶✶
P ❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❱ ❛❧✉❡ ❊①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥
µV ✵✪ ◆♦ ❣r♦ ✇t❤ ✐♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
σV ✶✪ ✶✪ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥
◆ ✶✵✵ ◆✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❛ ②s
◆r ❛❣❡♥ ts ✺✵✵ ✼✵✪ ș♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✸✵✪ ◆♦✐s❡
tr❛❞❡rs
▼✐♥✐♠ ✉♠
❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞
r❡t✉r♥rmin0.01% ✱
20% ❪ș♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠
r❡t✉r♥s ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥
✵✳✵✶✪ ❛♥❞ ❛ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ♦❢ ✷✵✪ ✭t❤❡②
❛r❡ ❛❧❧ r✐s❦✲❛ ✈ ❡rs❡✮
❇✐❛s ❛p ✶ ș♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥✲
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❇✐❛s ❜ p ✵
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✹✿ P ❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢♦r ❛ t❡st ✇✐t❤ r✐s❦✲❛ ✈ ❡rs❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛♥❞
♥♦✐s❡ tr❛❞❡rs
0 20 40 60 80 10018 20 22 24 26 28Fundamental and Market price
TimePricesFundamental Value
Market Price
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✿ Pr✐❝❡ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s ✭r❡❞✮ ❢♦r ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✭ rmin>0 ✮ ❛♥❞ ♥♦✐s❡
tr❛❞❡rs ✭♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✹ ✮

✶✶✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
0 20 40 60 80 1001150 1200 1250 1300Daily average wealth per investor type
TimeAverage wealth of tradersNoise_Trader
Informed
Buy_and_Hold
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✹✿ ❲ ❡❛❧t❤ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✭ rmin>0 ✮ ❛♥❞ ♥♦✐s❡
tr❛❞❡rs ✭♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✹ ✮
P ❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❱ ❛❧✉❡ ❊①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥
◆ ✸✵✵ ◆✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❛②s
◆r ❛❣❡♥ts ✸✵✵ ✶✵✵✪ ❚ ❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧ tr❛❞❡rs
▼❡♠♦r②
❧❡♥❣t❤✸ ❚ r❛❞❡rs ✉s❡ r✉❧❡s r❡❣❛r❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❧❛st ✸ r❡t✉r♥s ✭ rt✱
rt−1 ❛♥❞rt−2✮✳
µC ✺✪ ❚ r❛❞❡rs tr② t♦ s❡❧❧✴❜✉② ✇✐t❤ ❛ r❛♥❞♦♠ ♠❛r❦✲✉♣
♦❢R∈N(µ= 5%,σ= 8%)
σC ✽✪
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✺✿ ❙✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢♦r ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ❤❛✈✐♥❣ ♦♥❧② t❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧ tr❛❞❡rs

✻✳✷✳ ❇✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✶✶✸
❡✈ ❡♥ ♠♦r❡✳ ❚❤❡ ❞r♦♣ ✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡ ✉♥ t✐❧ t❤❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts ✭✇❤✐❝ ❤ r❡✐♥❢♦r❝❡ t❤❡
♣r✐❝❡ ❢❛❧❧✮ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s♦❧❞ ❛❧❧ t❤❡✐r ❛ss❡ts✳ ❆ t t❤❛t ♠♦♠❡♥ t ♦t❤❡r str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡❣✐♥ t♦
❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡✳ ș♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✺ ✇ ❡ s❡❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ s❡❝♦♥❞ ♣r✐❝❡ tr❡♥❞ ✐s ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡❞ ❜ ② tr❛❞❡rs
✇❤♦ ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡s s❤♦✉❧❞ r✐s❡ ♠♦r❡ ❛♥❞ ♠♦r❡✳
❚❤❡ ❛♠♣❧✐t✉❞❡ ❛♥❞ ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ♣r✐❝❡ tr❡♥❞s ❞❡♣ ❡♥❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ tr❛❞❡rs✬ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤
❛♥❞ t❤❡✐r ❞❡s✐r❡ ❢♦r ♣r♦✜ts ✭ µC ❛♥❞σC ✮ ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ✐♥❞❡♣ ❡♥❞❡♥ t ♦❢ ❛❝t✉❛❧ ❛ss❡t✬s
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❲ ❡ s❤♦ ✇ ❜ ❡❧♦ ✇ ❛♥♦t❤❡r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ✇❤❡r❡ tr❛❞❡rs ❛r❡ ♠ ✉❝ ❤ ♠♦r❡
✧✉♥❞❡❝✐❞❡❞✧ ✐♥ t❤❡✐r ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ♣r♦✜ts✿ t❤❡✐r ♠❡❛♥ ❞❡s✐r❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ ✐s ❧♦ ✇ µC= 1 ② ❡t
t❤❡ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ✐s ♠ ✉❝ ❤ ❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❛♥ ❜ ❡❢♦r❡✱ σC= 10% ✳ ❚❤✐s
❤✐❣❤ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t t❤❡ ❜✐❞s ❛♥❞ ❛s❦s ♦❢ t❤❡ tr❛❞❡s ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ♠♦r❡ ❞✐s♣ ❡rs❡❞
❛♥❞ ✇✐❧❧ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ❤✐❣❤ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s ✭s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✻ ✮✳
❖❜s❡r✈✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ❢r♦♠ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✻ ✱ ✇ ❡ s❡❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s t❤❛t ❛r❡
❝r❡❛t❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❞❡str♦ ② ❡❞ ♠ ✉❝ ❤ ❢❛st❡r t❤❛♥ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s t❡st✳ ❲ ❡ ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡
❜✉❜❜❧❡s t❤❛t ❧♦ ♦s❡ ✐♥ t❡♥s✐t ② ❛❢t❡r t❤❡ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ ❤ ✉❣❡ r✐s❡ ✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ✭✉♣ t♦ ✹✵✵ ♦r ✻✵✵
st❛rt✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ș❄❖ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ♦❢ ✷✵✮✳ ❚❤✐s ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✐s ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡❞ ❜ ②
tr❛❞❡rs ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✇ ❛❣❡r ♦♥ r✐s✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ❜✉② ❛t ✈ ❡r② ❤✐❣❤ ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s✳ ❆❢t❡r t❤❡
❜✉❜❜❧❡ ❜✉rsts ✭t❤❡ r✐s❡ ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ❧✐♠✐t❡❞ ♦♥❧② ❜ ② t❤❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts✬ ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❝❛s❤✮✱ t❤❡s❡
tr❛❞❡rs ✇✐❧❧ ❡✈ ❡♥ t✉❛❧❧② s❡❧❧ t❤❡✐r ❛ss❡ts ❛t ❧♦ ✇ ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ t❤ ✉s ❛❜s♦r❜✐♥❣ ❜✐❣ ❧♦ss❡s✳
❚❤❡s❡ ❧♦ss❡s ❤✐♥❞❡r t❤❡✐r ❛❜✐❧✐t ② t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ ✇✐❧❞ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ❢✉t✉r❡ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥s✳
❲ ❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡❞ ❛ ❢❡✇ s✐♠♣❧❡ t❡sts t♦ t❡st t❤❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ tr❛❞❡rs✳ ❲ ❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r❡❞
t❤❛t ♥♦✐s❡ tr❛❞❡rs ❝❛♥♥♦t tr❛❞❡ ❛❧♦♥❡ ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♥❝❡ t❤❡② ❞♦♥✬t s❡♥❞ ❛♥ ② ♣r✐❝❡
q✉♦t❡s✳ ❄ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ tr❛❞❡rs ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐❢ t❤❡② ❛❣r❡❡
t♦ tr❛❞❡✱ ❡✐t❤❡r ❜✉② ♦r s❡❧❧✱ ❛t t❤❡ ✬❝♦rr❡❝t✬ ♣r✐❝❡ ✭t❤❡② ❛r❡ r✐s❦ ♥❡✉tr❛❧✮✳ ❨ ❡t✱ s✉❝ ❤
❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❝❛♥♥♦t ❡①✐st ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣r❡s❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥ ❝♦sts✳ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝✐♥❣
tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥ ❝♦sts ✭♦r ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ r✐s❦✲❛ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥✮ st♦♣s ❛❧❧ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♥♦ ❝♦✉♥ t❡r✲
♣❛rt✐❡s ❡①✐st✳ ❚❤❡ ♦♥❧② ✇ ❛ ②s ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❝❛♥ ❡①✐st ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞
r✐s❦✲❛ ✈ ❡rs❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡✿ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❜✐❛s❡s ♦r ♦t❤❡r
♥♦♥✲❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❜❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❡①✐st ✭❡✳❣✳ ♥♦✐s❡ ♦r ❝ ❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs✮✳
ș♥ t❤❡ ❡♥❞ ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡❞ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs ✐♥s✐❞❡ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❚❤❡s❡
tr❛❞❡rs ❝❛♥ ♠♦ ✈ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❜ ② t❤❡♠s❡❧✈ ❡s ❛♥❞ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ t❡♥❞❡♥❝② t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✳
❆❧❧ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs ❛r❡ r❛t❤❡r s✐♠♣❧❡ ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t✉✐t✐✈ ❡ t♦ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✳ ❲❤❛t ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥s ✇❤❡♥
✇ ❡ ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝❡ ❢❡❛t✉r❡s t❤❛t ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤ ♦✉r ❛❣❡♥ ts t♦ t❤❡✐r r❡❛❧ ❝♦✉♥ t❡r♣❛rts❄ ❲❤❛t
❤❛♣♣ ❡♥s ✇❤❡♥ ✇ ❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♠✐① ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t ②♣ ❡s❄
❲ ❡ ❛♥s✇ ❡r t❤❡s❡ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r✳
✻✳✷ ❇✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s
ș♥ t❤✐s ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✇ ❡ st✉❞② t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❜✐❛s❡s ♦♥ t❤❡
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❲ ❡ st❛rt ✇✐t❤ ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s❡tt✐♥❣ ✭❧✐❦ ❡ t❤❡ ♦♥❡
❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✹ ✮ ✇❤❡r❡ ✇ ❡ ♠✐① ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♦rs✳

✶✶✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
0 50 100 150 200 250 3000 100 200 300 400 500 600
TimePricesFundamental Value
Market Price
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✺✿ Pr✐❝❡ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s ✭r❡❞✮ ❢♦r ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ♦♥❧② ✇✐t❤ ❝❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs ✭♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs
✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✺ ✮
0 100 200 300 400 5000 500 1000 1500
TimePricesFundamental Value
Market Price
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✻✿ Pr✐❝❡ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s ✭r❡❞✮ ❢♦r ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ♦♥❧② ✇✐t❤ ❝❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs ✇✐t❤ ❤✐❣❤❧②
✈♦❧❛t✐❧❡ r❡t✉r♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s✳ ▼❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥ r❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐♥ ❜❧❛❝❦

✻✳✷✳ ❇✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✶✶✺
❚ ❡st ✹
P ❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❱ ❛❧✉❡ ❊①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥
µV ✵✪ ◆♦ ❣r♦✇t❤ ✐♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
σV ✶✪ ✶✪ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥
◆ ✷✵✵✵ ◆✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❛②s
◆r ❛❣❡♥ts ✺✵✵ ✺✵✪ ✻❡r❢❡❝t❧② ș♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭✧●❖❉✧ ✐♥✲
✈❡st♦rs✮✺✵✪ ❇✐❛s❡❞ ș♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
❇✐❛sap[0.7,1.3] ❇✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤
❛ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ♦❢ ✰✴✲ ✸✵✪ ❡rr♦r✳
❇✐❛sbp ✵
❲ ❡❛❧t❤ ✺✵✵ ✐♥ ❝❛s❤ ❛♥❞ ✶✵ st♦❝❦s ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ✐♥✈❡st♦r
▼✐♥✐♠❛❧
❡①♣❡❝t❡❞
r❡t✉r♥✵✪ ❆❧❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♥♦t r✐s❦✲❛✈❡rs❡ ✭t❤❡②
tr❛❞❡ ❢♦r ❛t ❧❡❛st t❤❡ ✧♣❡r❝❡✐✈❡❞✧ ❝♦rr❡❝t ♣r✐❝❡✮
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✻✿ ❙❝❡♥❛r✐♦ ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✱ ✇✐t❤ ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡❞ ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❜✐❛s❡s
ș♥ t❤✐s s❝❡♥❛r✐♦ ❤❛❧❢ t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❦♥♦✇ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❢✉♥❞❛✲
♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ tr❛❞❡ ❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣❧② ✭r❡♠❡♠❜❡r t❤❛t t❤❡② ❤❛✈❡ ✵✪ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞
r❡t✉r♥ s♦ t❤❡② ❛r❡ ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ ❜✉② ♦r s❡❧❧ ❛t t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ s❡♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs ✇✐t❤ ♣r✐❝❡s ✐♥s✐❞❡ ❛♥ ✐♥t❡r✈ ❛❧ ♦❢ ✲✸✵✪ t♦ ✸✵✪ ❛r♦✉♥❞ t❤❡
❝♦rr❡❝t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡✱ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✼ ✱ t❤❛t t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞ ♠❛r❦❡t
♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ✈❡r② ❝❧♦s❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✭t❤❡ ♠❛ss ❛❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ✧●❖❉✧ ✐♥✲
✈❡st♦rs ❦❡❡♣ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❧♦s❡ t♦ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧s✮✳ ❲✐t❤ ❛ ❢❡✇ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s✱ ♠♦st ♣r✐❝❡
❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ✈❡r② s♠❛❧❧✱ ❛t ❛ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ ✵✳✵✷ ♣♦✐♥ts ♦✉t ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❡❛♥ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡
♦❢ ✷✵✳ ❆♥ ✐♥t❡r❡st✐♥❣ ♣❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ✐s ♦✛❡r❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ✇❡❛❧t❤
♣❡r ✐♥✈❡st♦r t②♣❡✳ ❚❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✱ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❡❞ ✐♥ r❡❞ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✽ ✱
❤❛✈❡ ♦♥ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ t❤❡ s♠❛❧❧❡st ✇❡❛❧t❤ ❧❡✈❡❧s✳ ❚❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ r❡t✉r♥s t❤❛t
❛r❡ s✉r♣❛ss❡❞ ✭♠♦st ♦❢ t❤❡ t✐♠❡✮ ❜② ❛ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛r❦ str❛t❡❣② ♦❢ ❇✉② ✫ ❍♦❧❞ ✭❛ ✈✐r✲
t✉❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦r t❤❛t ✇♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t ❤❛✈❡ ♠❛❞❡ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ tr❛❞❡ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❜❡❣✐♥♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ t❤❡
s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥✮✳ ❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭❣r❡❡♥ ❧✐♥❡ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡
✻✳✽ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡❞ ✬●❖❉✬ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❧❡❣❡♥❞✮ ❤❛✈❡ ❛ ♠♦r❡ st❛❜❧❡ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ✇❡❛❧t❤ ❛♥❞ t❤❡②
♠❛✐♥t❛✐♥ ❛ ❜❡tt❡r ♣❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ ❡✈❡♥ ❜❡tt❡r t❤❛♥ t❤❡
❜✉② ✫ ❤♦❧❞ str❛t❡❣② ✳
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❧② ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✭t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛ p ❜✐❛s ♣❛r❛♠✲
❡t❡r ❤❛s ❛ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥✮ t❤❡② ✇✐❧❧ ❤❛✈❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t❛r② ❡✛❡❝ts ♦♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t
♣r✐❝❡✿ s♦♠❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ♦✈❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡ ✇❤✐❧❡ ♦t❤❡rs ✇✐❧❧ ✉♥❞❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡✳
❚❤✐s ❡✛❡❝t ✐s ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ s♠❛❧❧ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡✳
ș♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t s❝❡♥❛r✐♦✱ ❚ ❡st ✺✱ ✇❡ ✉s❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛s ❢♦r t❤❡ ❧❛st t❡st
✭s❡❡ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✻ ✮ ❛♥❞ ✇❡ ♠♦❞✐❢② t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❜✐❛s ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r✳ ❚❤✐s t✐♠❡✱ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ❛ ❜✐❛s ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❛ p ❞r❛✇♥ r❛♥❞♦♠❧② ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ✐♥t❡r✈ ❛❧ [✵✳✾✱ ✶✳✹]✳ ❚❤✐s
❜✐❛s ✇✐❧❧ ✐♠♣♦s❡ ♦♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛ t❡♥❞❡♥❝② t♦ ♦✈❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧

✶✶✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
0 50 100 150 200 250 300−0.06 −0.05 −0.04 −0.03 −0.02 −0.01 0.00Difference between Fundamental and Market price
TimeFundamental − Price
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✼✿ ●r❛♣❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡
✭♠❛r❦❡t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✻ ✮
0 50 100 150 200 250 3001140 1160 1180 1200Daily average wealth per investor type
TimeAverage wealth of tradersInformed
GOD
Buy_and_Hold
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✽✿ ●r❛♣❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❙❤❛r♣ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ✐♥✈❡st♦r t②♣❡ ✭♠❛r❦❡t
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✻ ✮

✻✳✷✳ ❇✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✶✶✼
✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❙✉❝ ❤ ❛♥ ♦ ✈ ❡r❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ✈✐s✐❜❧❡ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✾ ✇❤❡r❡ ✇ ❡ s❡❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ♦❢t❡♥ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✭❛❧❜ ❡✐t ✇✐t❤ s♠❛❧❧ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s ❜✉t ♥♦t
♥❡❣❧✐❣✐❜❧❡✮✳ ❲❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❣♦ ❡s ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ t❤❡ ✬●❖❉✬
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ s❡❧❧ t❤❡✐r ❛ss❡ts ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❜✉② t❤❡♠ ❛t
♣r✐❝❡s ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ t❧② ♠✐s♣r✐❝❡ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t t❤❡② ✇✐❧❧ ♠♦st ♦❢t❡♥
❜✉② ❤✐❣❤ ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧ ❧♦ ✇✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ tr❛❞❡ ✇✐t❤ ❡❛❝ ❤ ♦t❤❡r ✭s✐♥❝❡ s♦♠❡ ❛r❡
❧❡ss ❜✐❛s❡❞ t❤❛♥ ♦t❤❡rs✮ ♦r ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭●❖❉✮✳ ❲ ❡ s❡❡ ✐♥
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✶✵ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♣ ❡r❢♦r♠ ✇ ♦rs❡ t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ❜✉② ❛♥❞ ❤♦❧❞ str❛t❡❣② ✳
❚ ♦ ❜ ❡tt❡r ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❤♦ ✇ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✢✉❝t✉❛t❡s ❛ ✇ ❛ ② ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♠❛r✲
❦ ❡t ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ❤♦ ✇ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ❞✐st♦rt r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ș♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✶✶
✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ s❡❡ t❤❡ ❣r❛♣❤ ♦❢ ❛ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐♥ t❤r❡❡ ♣ ♦✐♥ ts✿ Vt✱Vt+1 ❛♥❞
Vt+2 ✳ ❆ t t❤❡ ✜rst t✐♠❡ ♠♦♠❡♥ t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❡①❛❝t❧② t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳
❚❤❡ ♥❡✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✢♦ ✇✱ It ❂Vt+1 ✲Pt✱ ✇✐❧❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❝✉rr❡♥ t ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✳ ș❢ t❤❡ ♠❛ ❥♦r✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞
t❤❡♥ t❤❡② ✇✐❧❧ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t t❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛s ap∗It+bp ✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♣r✐❝❡Pt+1 ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ Vt+1 ✳ ●♦✐♥❣ ♦♥ ✐♥ s✉❝ ❤ ❛ ✇ ❛ ② ✱ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐❧❧ ✢✉❝t✉❛t❡ ❛r♦✉♥❞ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✇✐❧❧ ♥♦t ❜ ❡ ❝❛♥❝❡❧❧❡❞ ♦✉t t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣✐♥❣ s✐♥❝❡ t❤❡
❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐s ❝♦♥str❛✐♥❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢
❢✉♥❞s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s ❛♥❞ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ s✉✣❝✐❡♥ t ❝♦✉♥ t❡r♣❛rt✐❡s✳
❲ ❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧✐♥❡ t❤❛t ❛s ❧♦♥❣ ❛s t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ s✉✣❝✐❡♥ t ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭✇✐t❤ ❛ p> ✵✮ t❤❛♥
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ t❡♥❞❡♥❝② t♦ r❡✈ ❡rt t♦ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❆s
❛ ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❤✐s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜✐❛s ✭❛ p> ✵✮ ✇ ❡ ❛❧s♦ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❡①❝❡ss
✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ✳
ș♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✶✷ ✇ ❡ ♥♦t✐❝❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s ✐s ♠♦st ♦❢t❡♥
❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❛t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❆s ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ s❡❡ t❤✐s ❡①❝❡ss ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ♣ ❡rs✐sts ✐♥
s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥s ✇❤❡r❡ ♦t❤❡r st ②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts ❛r❡ ♣r❡s❡♥ t✳
❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ❛ ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ t ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ♦ ✈ ❡r❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s ✭✐♥ ❡❛❝ ❤ t❡st ✇ ❡ t❛❦ ❡ t❤❡
❙✉♠♠❛r②
st❛t✐st✐❝s
❢♦r ✶✵✵
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s
♦❢ ❚ ❡st ✹❆ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡
♦❢ ❡①❝❡ss
✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ②❆ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ t♦ ♠❛r✲
❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡
▼❡❛♥ ✵✱✵✵✵✸✽✹✵✸ ✲✵✱✵✸✷✻✵✹✼✶
❙t❛♥❞❛r❞
❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥✽✱✻✷✸✹✻❊✲✵✺ ✵✱✵✵✹✼✾✾✾✸
❚ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✹✹✱✺✸✸✶✻✽✽✯✯✯ ✲✻✼✱✾✷✼✹✻✾✽✯✯✯
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✼✿ ❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r ✶✵✵ tr✐❛❧ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ✐♥♣✉t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠
❚ ❡st ✹ ✇✐t❤ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ap ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs

✶✶✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
0 50 100 150 200 250 300−0.10 −0.08 −0.06 −0.04 −0.02 0.00Difference between Fundamental and Market price
TimeFundamental − Price
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✾✿ ●r❛♣❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡
✇✐t❤ ♦♣t✐♠✐st ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✮
Sharpe ratios for the average return of each investor type
Strategy typeSharpe ratio
0 1 2 3 4 5 6Informed
GOD
Buy_and_Hold
0.58 3.29 1.37
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✶✵✿ ●r❛♣❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ✐♥✈❡st♦r t②♣❡ ✇✐t❤ ♦♣t✐♠✐st
❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs

✻✳✷✳ ❇✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✶✶✾
It
Vt=PtPt+1
Pt+2It+1
Vt+1Vt+1
TimePrice
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✶✶✿ ❉②♥❛♠✐❝s ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✇✐t❤ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
0 50 100 150 200 250 300−0.0005 0.0000 0.0005 0.0010 0.0015
TimeExcess Volatility, Vol(Fundamental) − Vol(Market)
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✶✷✿ ❊①❝❡ss ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇❤❡r❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♦♣t✐♠✐sts✱
ap ✐♥[0.9,1.4]

✶✷✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❡①❝❡ss ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ✇ ❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ t❤❡s❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ❛❝r♦ss ❛❧❧ t❤❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s✮✳
❆❢t❡r ❡st❛❜❧✐s❤✐♥❣ t❤❛t ❛ ♣ ♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✭ ap>0 ✮ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥
♣r♦ ❞✉❝❡ ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥ t❧② ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡s ✇ ❡ ♠❛❦ ❡ t❡sts t♦ s❡❡ t❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢❛❝t♦r bp
♦♥ t❤❡ ❝r❡❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❲ ❡ r❡♠✐♥❞ t❤❡ ❜✐❛s✐♥❣ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥✱ ❢♦r ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r p ✱
Biasp(It) =ap∗It+bp ✭✻✳✶✮
❢r♦♠ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✺ ✱ ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❛ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡✴♥❡❣❛t✐✈ ❡ bp ✈ ❛❧✉❡ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ ts ❛♥ ♦♣t✐✲
♠✐st✐❝✴♣ ❡ss✐♠✐st✐❝ ❧♦ ♦❦ ♦♥ ❛ss❡ts✳
❘✉♥♥✐♥❣ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✽ ✱ ②✐❡❧❞s ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡
❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ❡q✉❛❧ t♦ ❛♥ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r r❛♥✲
❞♦♠❧② ❞r❛ ✇♥ bp ❜✐❛s❡s✳
ș♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✶✸ ✇ ❡ s❡❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❥✉♠♣s ❛t t❤❡ ❜ ❡❣✐♥♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ t❤❡ s✐♠✲
✉❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s ❛♥❞ t❤✐s ❜✐❛s ♣ ❡rs✐sts t❤r♦✉❣❤♦✉t t❤❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✭s❡❡
st❛t✐st✐❝s ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✾ ✮✳
❚❤❡ ❜✐❛s bp ✐s ♥♦t ❛❞❞✐t✐✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❞♦ ♥♦t ❣r♦ ✇ ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ t❧② ✳ ❚❤✐s
❜✐❛s ❥✉st ❦ ❡❡♣s ♣r✐❝❡s ❛t ❛ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ șt ✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t t♦
♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦✉t t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✐❛s ✐s t❤❡ r❡s✉❧t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❥♦✐♥ t ❛❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❛ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r
♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈✐♥❣ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s ❧❡✈ ❡❧s ♦❢ ♦♣t✐♠✐s♠ bp ✳ ș❢ ✇ ❡ r❡r✉♥ ❚ ❡st ✻ ✇✐t❤ ❛
♥❡❣❛t✐✈ ❡ ❜✐❛s ✭♠♦st❧② ♣ ❡ss✐♠✐st ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✮ bp ✐♥[−2,0] ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ♥♦t ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡
t❤❡ ✐♥ t✉✐t✐✈ ❡ r❡s✉❧t ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ t❧② ❜ ❡❧♦ ✇ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳
ș♥st❡❛❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✇✐❧❧ r❡st ✈ ❡r② ❝❧♦s❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ s❡r✐❡s✳ ❚❤✐s ❡✛❡❝t ✐s
❞✉❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ●❖❉ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❲❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♣ ❡ss✐♠✐sts
tr② t♦ ❧♦ ✇ ❡r ♣r✐❝❡s ✇✐t❤ ❧♦ ✇ q✉♦t❡s✱ t❤❡ ●❖❉ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡ t♦ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡
❤✐❣❤ ❜✐❞ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ș❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❞r♦♣s✱ ❡✈ ❡♥ ❛ ❧✐tt❧❡ ✉♥❞❡r t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ ●❖❉ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ s❡✐③❡ t❤❡ ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t ② ❛♥❞ st❛rt ❜✉②✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞
❛ss❡t✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞r♦♣ ●❖❉ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❜✉② ♠♦r❡ ❛ss❡ts
✇✐t❤ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❛♠♦✉♥ t ♦❢ ❝❛s❤✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❢❛❝t♦rs ✇✐❧❧ r❡s✉❧t ✐♥ ❛ r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ✇ ❡❧❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡❞
❛ss❡t✳ ❚ ♦ ♦❜t❛✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t t❤❛t ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ t❧② ✉♥❞❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡s ❛ss❡ts ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t♦ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡
t❤❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦rt✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣ ❡ss✐♠✐st ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t♦ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❲ ❡ r✉♥ ❛ ♥❡✇
t❡st ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ ✐♥ ❚ ❡st ✻✳ ❚ ♦ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ❛♥ ❡✛❡❝t ♦❢ ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥ t
✉♥❞❡r❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t♦ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇❤❡r❡ t❤❡ ♣ ❡ss✐♠✐st ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ ❞♦♠✐♥❛♥ t ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ ✭❤❡r❡ t❤❡② st❛rt ✇✐t❤ ✾✵✪ ♦❢ t♦t❛❧ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤✮ ❛♥❞
✇✐t❤ ❛♥ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❛rr❛ ② ♦❢ ♣ ❡ss✐♠✐s♠ ❞❡❣r❡❡s ✭❢r♦♠ ✲✹ t♦ ✵✮✳
ș♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✶✹ ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✭r❡❞✮ ❢❛❧❧s ❛♥❞ r❡sts ❜ ❡❧♦ ✇ t❤❡
❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳
❊✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ t❤❡ ♣ ❡ss✐♠✐s♠ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐s ✇✐❞❡r t❤❛♥ ✐♥ ❚ ❡st ✻ ✭t❤❡ ❧♦ ✇ ❡r ❧✐♠✐t
✐s ♥♦ ✇ ✲✹✮ ✇ ❡ s❡❡✱ ✐♥ t❤❡ st❛t✐st✐❝s s✉♠♠❛r② ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✶ t❤❛t t❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥
❧❡✈ ❡❧ ✐s ❧♦ ✇ ❡r t❤❛♥ ✇❤❡♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇ ❡r❡ ♦♣t✐♠✐sts✳

✻✳✷✳ ❇✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✶✷✶
❚ ❡st ✻
P ❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❱ ❛❧✉❡ ❊①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥
µV ✵✪ ◆♦ ❣r♦✇t❤ ✐♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
σV ✶✪ ✶✪ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥
◆ ✷✵✵✵ ◆✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❛②s
◆r ❛❣❡♥ts ✺✵✵ ✺✵✪ ❊❡r❢❡❝t❧② ș♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
✭✧●❖❉✧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✮✺✵✪ ❇✐❛s❡❞ ș♥✲
❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
❇✐❛s ❛p ✶ ❇✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ♦♣t✐♠✐st✐❝
❛❜♦✉t t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳
❇✐❛s ❜ p[✵✱✷]
❲ ❡❛❧t❤ ✺✵✵ ✐♥ ❝❛s❤ ❛♥❞ ✶✵ st♦❝❦s ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤
✐♥✈❡st♦r
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✽✿ ❙❝❡♥❛r✐♦ ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✱ ✇✐t❤ ❛♥❞ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❜✐❛s❡s
0 100 200 300 400 50020 25 30
TimePricesFundamental Value
Market Price
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✶✸✿ ❊①❛♠♣❧❡ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s ✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ♦♣t✐♠✐st✐❝ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭♠❛r❦❡t
♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥ r❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐♥ ❜❧❛❝❦✮

✶✷✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r ✶✵✵ s✐♠ ✉❧❛✲
t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❚ ❡st ✻❆ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ t♦ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ✭ ♣ ❡rs✐st✐♥❣ ♦ ✈ ❡r✲
♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❜✐❛s ✮
▼❡❛♥ ✲✵✱✽✶✸✽✷✼✻✸
❙t❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥ ✵✱✵✾✵✵✽✼✹✶
❙t✉❞❡♥ t t ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✲✾✵✱✸✸✼✺✺✹✹
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✾✿ ❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r t❡st ✻ ✲ s❤♦ ✇s t❤❛t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ t❧②
♦ ✈ ❡r❡st✐♠❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ✭✐♥ ❡❛❝ ❤ t❡st ✇ ❡ t❛❦ ❡ t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❡①❝❡ss
✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ✇ ❡
❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ t❤❡s❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ❛❝r♦ss ❛❧❧ t❤❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s
❚ ❡st ✼
P ❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❱ ❛❧✉❡ ❊①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥
µV ✵✪ ◆♦ ❣r♦ ✇t❤ ✐♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
σV ✶✪ ✶✪ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥
◆ ✷✵✵✵ ◆✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❛ ②s
◆r ❛❣❡♥ ts ✺✵✵ ✶✵✪ ● ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ș♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
✭✧●❖❉✧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✮✾✵✪ ❇✐❛s❡❞ ș♥✲
❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❇✐❛s ❛p ✶ ❇✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ♣ ❡ss✐♠✐st✐❝
❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳
❇✐❛s ❜ p[−4,0]
❲ ❡❛❧t❤ ✺✵✵ ✐♥ ❝❛s❤ ❛♥❞ ✶✵ st♦ ❝ ❦s ❢♦r ❡❛❝ ❤
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✵✿ ❚ ❡st ✼ ✲ ▼❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ❞♦♠✐♥❛♥ t ♣ ❡ss✐♠✐st✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❙✉♠♠❛r②
st❛t✐st✐❝s
❢♦r ✶✵✵
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s
♦❢ ❚ ❡st ✻❆ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ t♦
♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡
✭♣ ❡rs✐st✐♥❣ ✉♥❞❡r✲
♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❜✐❛s ✮bp ✐♥
[✲✹✱✵]❆ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ t♦
♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡
✭♣ ❡rs✐st✐♥❣ ♦ ✈ ❡r♣r✐❝✲
✐♥❣ ❜✐❛s ✮bp ✐♥[✵✱✷]
▼❡❛♥ ✵✱✼✹✺✵✺✾✽✹ ✲✵✱✽✶✸✽✷✼✻✸
❙t❛♥❞❛r❞
❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥✵✱✶✶✸✻✼✼✹ ✵✱✵✾✵✵✽✼✹✶
❙t✉❞❡♥ t t
✈ ❛❧✉❡✻✺✱✺✹✶✺✾✼✺ ✲✾✵✱✸✸✼✺✺✹✹
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✶✿ ❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r t❡st ✼ ✲ s❤♦ ✇s t❤❛t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ t❧②
✉♥❞❡r❡st✐♠❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡

✻✳✷✳ ❇✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✶✷✸
0 50 100 150 200 250 30012 14 16 18 20 22
TimePricesFundamental Value
Market Price
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✶✹✿ ❚ ❡st ✼ ✲ ❊①❛♠♣❧❡ ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇❤❡r❡ ♣❡ss✐♠✐st✐❝ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
r❡♣r❡s❡♥t ✾✵✪ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t
❚❤✐s s♠❛❧❧❡r ❣❛♣ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐s ❞✉❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❛❝✲
t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ❲❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❞r♦♣s ❜❡❧❧♦✇ t❤❡
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ t❤❡ ●❖❉ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❜✉② ❛s ♠❛♥② st♦❝❦s ❛s t❤❡✐r ❝❛s❤ ♣❡r♠✐ts
t❤❡♠✳ ❆❢t❡r✇❛r❞s✱ ✐❢ t❤✐s ✉♥❞❡r❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣❡rs✐sts t❤❡ ●❖❉ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❥✉st ❤♦❧❞
t❤❡✐r ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ♦❢ st♦❝❦s ❛♥❞ ✇✐❧❧ ✇❛✐t ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t t♦ ❝♦rr❡❝t❧② ❡✈ ❛❧✉❛t❡ t❤❡ st♦❝❦s✳
❍♦❧❞✐♥❣ ♦♥❧② ✉♥❞❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞ st♦❝❦s ✭♥♦ ❝❛s❤✮ ✇✐❧❧ r❡♥❞❡r t❤❡ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧②
✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ♠♦r❡ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧❡✱ ❛s ✇❡ ❝❛♥ s❡❡ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✶✺ ✳ ❖❢ ❝♦✉rs❡✱ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞
str❛t❡❣② t❤❛t t❛❦❡ ✐♥t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t t✐♠❡ ❤♦r✐③♦♥s ✇♦✉❧❞ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ t❤✐s r❡s✉❧ts ✭✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝♦✉❧❞ ❝❧♦s❡ t❤❡✐r ♣♦s✐t✐♦♥s ❡✈❡♥ ✐❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐❞ ♥♦t r❡✈❡rt t♦ ✐t✬s
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮✳
ș♥ t❤❡ ❛❜s❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ♥❡✇ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ♦r ✐♥t❡r♥❛❧ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r✱ t❤❡
♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐❧❧ ♣❡rs✐st❡♥t❧② ✉♥❞❡r✲♣r✐❝❡ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ✭t❤❡ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✇✐❧❧ ❤♦❧❞ ♦♥
t♦ st♦❝❦s ❛♥❞ ✇❛✐t ❢♦r t❤❡♠ t♦ ❜❡ ✇❡❧❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡❞✮✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s ❝❛s❡✱ ♦❢ ❛ss❡t
♦✈❡r❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥✱ t❤❡ ●❖❉ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇♦✉❧❞ ❤❛✈❡ s♦❧❞ ❛❧❧ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ❛ss❡ts ✭❜❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡②
✇❡r❡ ♦✈❡r♣r✐❝❡❞✮ ❛♥❞ ❦❡♣t ♦♥❧② ❝❛s❤✳
❘ ❡s❡ ❛r ❝❤ ◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ★✶ ✿ ❲❤❛t ✐s t❤❡ ♠✐① ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛✈✐♦rs t❤❛t
♣r ♦ ❞✉❝ ❡s ❝ ♦♥s✐st❡♥t❧② ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝ ❡s❄
❆♥s✇❡r ★✶✿
ș♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✱ t❤❛t ♦✈❡r ♦r ✉♥❞❡r ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ♠❛❣♥✐t✉❞❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥✲
❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ r ❡ ❣❛r ❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝ ❡ ❜ ❡t✇❡ ❡♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝ ❡s✱ ❝ ❛♥ ❝r ❡ ❛t❡

✶✷✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
0 50 100 150 200 250 300550 600 650 700
TimeAverage wealth of tradersInformed
GOD
Buy_and_Hold
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✶✺✿ ❚ ❡st ✼ ✲ ❊✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✇❡❛❧t❤ ❢♦r ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t t②♣❡s ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t
✇❤❡r❡ ♣❡ss✐♠✐st ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡ ✭st♦❝❦s ❛r❡ ✉♥❞❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞✮
❝ ♦♥s✐st❡♥t❧② ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ♣r✐❝ ❡s✳ ❚❤❡ ❧❡ss ❡✈❡♥❧② ❞✐str✐❜✉t❡ ❞ t❤❡✐r ❜✐❛s❡s ❛r ❡ ✭t❤❡ ♠❛❥♦r✐t②
♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t❡♥❞ t♦ ♦✈❡r ♦r ✉♥❞❡r ❡st✐♠❛t❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮ t❤❡ ♠♦r ❡ ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥t ✐s t❤❡
❛✈❡r ❛❣❡ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥ ❢r ♦♠ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡s✳ ❚❤❡ ♠♦r ❡ r ❡❧❛t✐✈❡ ✇❡ ❛❧t❤ t❤❡s❡ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥✲
✈❡st♦rs ❤♦❧❞ t❤❡ ❡ ❛s✐❡r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐❧ ❧ ♠✐s♣r✐❝ ❡ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❆ ♠✐s♣r✐❝ ❡ ❞ st❛t❡ ❝ ❛♥ ♣ ❡rs✐st
❛s ❧♦♥❣ ❛s ♥❡✇ ❛♥❞ ❜ ❡tt❡r ✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❞♦♥ ✬t ❡♥t❡r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐♥ ❛ s✉✣❝✐❡♥t
❡♥♦✉❣❤ ✈♦❧✉♠❡✳ ș♥✈❡st♦rs t❤❛t ❤❛✈❡ ✧❝ ♦rr ❡ ❝t✧ ♣r✐❝ ❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ✇✐❧ ❧ ❡✐t❤❡r s❡❧ ❧ ❛❧ ❧
t❤❡✐r ❛ss❡ts ✭✐❢ ♦✈❡r♣r✐❝ ❡ ❞✮ ♦r ❜✉② ✇✐t❤ ❛❧ ❧ t❤❡✐r ❝ ❛s❤ ✭✐❢ ✉♥❞❡r♣r✐❝ ❡ ❞✮✳ ❲❤❡♥ ❛❧ ❧ t❤❡
✧s♠❛rt✧ ♠♦♥❡② ✐s ✉s❡ ❞ ❛♥❞ ♣r✐❝ ❡s ❛r ❡ st✐❧ ❧ ✬❜✐❛s❡ ❞✬✱ t❤❡s❡ ♥♦♥✲❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❧♦ ♦s❡
❝ ♦♥tr ♦❧ ♦✈❡r ♣r✐❝ ❡s✳ ❙❤♦rt✲s❡❧ ❧✐♥❣ ❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ❛r ❡ ✐rr ❡❧❡✈❛♥t s✐♥❝ ❡ t❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
❝ ❛♥ ❛❧s♦ t❛❦❡ ❝r ❡ ❞✐t t♦ ❜✉② ♠♦r ❡ ♠✐s♣r✐❝ ❡ ❞ ❛ss❡ts✳
✻✳✷✳✶ ❇✐❛s❡s ✐♥ ✈ ♦❧✈✐♥❣ ❧❛❣s ✐♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥
ș♥ t❤✐s ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✇❡ st✉❞② t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦❢ ❛ ✈❡r② s♣❡❝✐✜❝ t②♣❡ ♦❢ ❜✐❛s✿ ❧❛❣ ✐♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳
❲ ❡ r❡♠✐♥❞ t❤❡ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ t❤r♦✉❣❤ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❝♦♥str✉❝t❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❢♦r
❛♥ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❛❣❡♥t✿
It=Vt+1−lag−Pt ✭✻✳✷✮
❋ r♦♠ t❤❡ ♦r✐❣✐♥❛❧ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ✇❡ r❡♣❧❛❝❡❞ t❤❡ ✐♥❞❡① t+1 ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ✐♥❞❡① t+ 1−lag ✳ ș♥ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s t❡sts t❤❡ ❧❛❣ ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇❛s ✵✳ ❚❤✐s ✐♠♣❧✐❡❞ t❤❛t ❛❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ ❛t tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣❡r✐♦❞ [t,t+1]

✻✳✷✳ ❇✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✶✷✺
t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❛t ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✳ ș♥ r❡❛❧✐t ②
t❤✐s ✐s ♥♦t t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ❧♦ ♦❦ ❛t ♦✉t❞❛t❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞
✐♥❢❡r ❢r♦♠ t❤❡♠ t❤❡✐r ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ♣r❡s❡♥ t t✐♠❡✳ ❚❤❡ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❛ ❧❛❣ ✐♥
✉s✐♥❣ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝✴✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦ ❜ ❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ s♦♠❡
♣s②❝ ❤♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❜✐❛s❡s ❧✐❦ ❡ ✬❤✐♥❞s✐❣❤ t✬ ♦r ✬❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜✐❧✐t ②✬ ❜✐❛s ✭s❡❡ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ❢♦r ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡
❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥s✮✳
❲ ❡ st✉❞② t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦❢ t❤✐s ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r✱ ❧❛❣ ✱ ♦♥ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s ✉s✐♥❣ ❛
s✐♠♣❧❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t str✉❝t✉r❡✱ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ t❛❜❧❡ ❜ ❡❧♦ ✇✳
ș♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✷ ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ♥♦ ❣r♦ ✇t❤ ❛♥❞ ✇❤❡r❡ ❛❧❧ t❤❡
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ✉♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❧❛❣❣❡❞ ❢♦r ❛ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ♦❢ ✽ ❞❛ ②s✳
ș❢ ❛t t✐♠❡ t ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❧❛❣ ♦❢ ✶ ❤❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♥❣
t❤❡ ♥❡①t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✱ ✹ t+1 ✱ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
♦❢ ② ❡st❡r❞❛ ② ✱ ❱ t ✱ ✐♥st❡❛❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝✉rr❡♥ t ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❱ t+1 ✳ ❲ ❡ r✉♥ ❛
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡s❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛♥❞ ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❛♣♣ ❡❛r❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ st ②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts
✭❧❡♣t♦❦✉rt♦s✐s ❛♥❞ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣✮✳
❲ ❡ ❝❛♥ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡s ✻✳✶✻ ❛♥❞ ✻✳✶✼ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t ❡①❤✐❜✐t
t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❛s t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐t ✇ ❛s s✉♣♣ ♦s❡❞ t♦ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇✳ ❚❤❡
♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛ ♦❢ ✬❢❛t t❛✐❧s✬ ✐s ❝❧❡❛r❧② ✈✐s✐❜❧❡✱ ❡①tr❡♠❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s ❛r❡ ♠♦r❡ ♣r♦❜❛✲
❜❧❡ t❤❛♥ t❤❡② s❤♦✉❧❞ ❜ ❡ ✭❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t t❤❡♦r②✮✳ ❚❤❡ s✉♠♠❛r②
st❛t✐st✐❝s ❚ ❛❜❧❡✶✻✳✶✸ s❤♦ ✇s ❛ ❝❧❡❛r ✐♥❞✐❝❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ st ②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts
t❤r♦✉❣❤ ✶✵✵ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s r✉♥s ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✳
ș❢ ✇ ❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ♦❢ ❧❛❣❣❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ s❛ ② t❤❛t t❤❡
♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❢♦r♠❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ♦r❞❡rs ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❝✉rr❡♥ t ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❧❛st s❡✈ ❡♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡s✱ ❡✳❣✳ ✿
Pt+1=f(Pt,Vt+1,Vt,Vt−1,…,Vt−7) ✭✻✳✸✮
Rt+1=f(Rt,Rt−1,…,Rt−7) ✭✻✳✹✮
❋ r♦♠ t❤❡s❡ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ✐♥❢❡r t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s ❤❛s ❛ ❞✐r❡❝t ❢♦r♠
♦❢ ❛✉t♦✲❞❡♣ ❡♥❞❡♥❝❡ ❞✉❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❢❛❝t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❛t ✉s❡ ❧❛❣❣❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ș❢ ✇ ❡
❧♦ ♦❦ ❛t t❤❡ ❛✉t♦ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s✱ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✶✽ ✱ ✇ ❡ s❡❡ t❤❛t
r❡t✉r♥s ❡①❤✐❜✐t ♥♦♥✲❧✐♥❡❛r ❛✉t♦ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ✭❝♦♥✜r♠❡❞ ✐♥ r❡♣ ❡❛t❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ r✉♥s ✲
s❡❡ st❛t✐st✐❝s s✉♠♠❛r② ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✸ ✮✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ ✐❢ ✇ ❡ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡ s♣❛♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❧❛❣
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ✭✐♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡ t♦ ✷✵✮ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✶✾ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♥♦♥✲❧✐♥❡❛r
❛✉t♦ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s ❜ ❡❝♦♠❡s str♦♥❣❡r✳
❖♥❡ ❝❛♥ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❛t ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✶✽ ❛♥❞ ✻✳✶✾ t❤❡ ❛✉t♦ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s ♦❢ ❛❜s♦✲
❧✉t❡ r❡t✉r♥ ✭❛t t❤❡ ♣ ♦ ✇ ❡r ✶✳✺✮ ❛r❡ ❛❧♠♦st ❞♦✉❜❧❡ t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s ♦❢ ❛✉t♦ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥
✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❧❛❣ ✐s ✽✳ ș♥ ❡✐t❤❡r ♦❢ t❤❡ t ✇ ♦ ❝❛s❡s✱ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ❧♦♥❣
✶❚❤❡ ❍✉rst st❛t✐st✐❝ t❡st ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ✇ ❛s ✉s❡❞✳ ❆ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❍ str✐❝t❧② ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ✵✳✺ ❛♥❞ ✶ ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡s
❧♦♥❣✲♠❡♠♦r② ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s✳ ❙t✉❞❡♥ t t t❡st ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♥ ✉❧❧ ❤ ②♣ ♦t❤❡s✐s ❛s ❍✉rst ♣❛r❛♠✲
❡t❡r❂✵✳✺

✶✷✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
❚ ❡st ✽
P ❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❱ ❛❧✉❡ ❊①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥
µV ✵✪ ◆♦ ❣r♦✇t❤ ✐♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥✲
t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
σV ✶✪ ✶✪ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥
◆ ✺✵✵✵ ◆✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❛②s
◆r ❛❣❡♥ts ✷✵✵ ✶✵✵✪ ș♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✲
✈❡st♦rs ✭♥♦t s♣❡❝✉❧❛✲
t♦rs✮
ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❧❛❣[0;−8] ❊❛❝❤ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ✇✐❧❧ ❤❛✈❡
❛ ✭✜①❡❞✮ ❧❛❣ ❞r❛✇♥ r❛♥✲
❞♦♠❧② ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ✐♥t❡r✈ ❛❧
[0..8]
❇✐❛s ❛p ✶ ș♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ♣❡r❢❡❝t
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❇✐❛s ❜ p ✵
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✷✿ ▼❛r❦❡t ✇✐t❤ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✱ ✇✐t❤ ❧❛❣ ✐♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
−0.04 −0.02 0.00 0.02 0.040 10 20 30 40
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✶✻✿ ❉✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s ❢♦r t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ❛
s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✷

✻✳✷✳ ❇✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✶✷✼
−0.03 −0.02 −0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.040 20 40 60 80 100
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✶✼✿ ❉✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ❛ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥
✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✷
❙✉♠♠❛r②
st❛t✐st✐❝s
❢♦r ✶✵✵
s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s❊①❝❡ss ❦✉r✲
t♦s✐s◆♦♥✲❧✐♥❡❛r ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❜s♦✲
❧✉t❡ r❡t✉r♥s ✭❍❯❘❙❚ t❡st✮
▼❡❛♥ ✷✱✾✾✺✷✵✾✸✹ ✵✱✻✾✻✺✹✸✵✽
❙t❛♥❞❛r❞
❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥✶✱✵✼✵✹✷✻✷✽ ✵✱✵✽✻✶✷✶✶✹
❙t✉❞❡♥t t
✈ ❛❧✉❡✷✼✱✾✽✶✹✻✸ ✷✷✱✽✷✶✻✾✾✽
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✸✿ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢♦r ❡①❝❡ss ❦✉rt♦s✐s ❛♥❞ ❧♦♥❣ ♠❡♠♦r② ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s
❢♦r ✶✵✵ t❡sts ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✷

✶✷✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 50000.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
LagACF
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✶✽✿ ❆✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ ♠❛r❦❡t r❡t✉r♥s r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ❛ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥
✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✷ ❛♥❞ ❛ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❧❛❣ ♦❢ ✽
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 50000.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
LagACF
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✶✾✿ ❆✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ ♠❛r❦❡t r❡t✉r♥s r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ❛ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥
✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✷ ❛♥❞ ❛ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❧❛❣ ♦❢ ✷✵

✻✳✸✳ ❱ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ✧st ②❧✐③❡❞✧ ❢❛❝ts ✶✷✾
❧❛❣ ✐♥ t❡r✈ ❛❧s✱ t❤❡ ♥♦♥✲❧✐♥❡❛r ❛✉t♦ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ✈ ❡r② ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥ t ✭✐ts ❧❛st ❢♦r ❡✈ ❡♥ ✶✵✵✵
t✐♠❡ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s✮✳ ș♥ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱ s❡❡ t❤❡ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥✱ ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s ♦❢ ❛✉t♦ ❝♦r✲
r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❡✈ ❡♥ ♠ ✉❝ ❤ ❤✐❣❤❡r ✭❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ ✷✵✪✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❛t ❞❡❝❛ ② r❛♣✐❞❧② ❛♥❞ ❛r❡
✉s✉❛❧❧② ♥♦t s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥ t ❛❢t❡r ❛ ❧❛❣ ♦❢ ✷✵✵ r♦✉♥❞s✳ ❲ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♣ ♦✐♥ t❡❞ ♦✉t t❤❛t ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ②
❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ✭❛s ✇ ❡❧❧ ❛s ❡①tr❡♠❡ r❡t✉r♥s✮ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡❞ r❡❛❧✐st✐❝❛❧❧② ❢♦r ✈ ❡r② s✐♠♣❧❡
❢❛❝t✿ t❤❡ ✉s❡ ♦❢ ♦❧❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♥❡✇ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ▲❛❣❣❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛✲
t✐♦♥✱ ❡✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ ✉s❡❞ ❜ ② ✉♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ✇✐❧❧ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ♥♦♥✲❧✐♥❡❛r ❛✉t♦ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥
♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s✳ ș❢ ✇ ❡ ❝♦♠ ❜✐♥❡ t❤❡ ❧❛❣❣❡❞ ♣r♦♣ ❡rt ② ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✉s❛❣❡ ✇✐t❤ ♦t❤❡r
❜✐❛s❡s✱ ❧✐❦ ❡ ap ♦rbp ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✱ ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ r✐❝ ❤❡r ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ✇❤✐❧st st✐❧❧
♠❛✐♥ t❛✐♥✐♥❣ ♥♦♥❧✐♥❡❛r ❛✉t♦ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥✳
❲✐t❤ t❤✐s ♦❜s❡r✈❛t✐♦♥✱ ✇❡ ❝ ♦♥❝❧✉❞❡ t❤❛t ✬❛❧♠♦st✬ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡ts✱ ✇❤❡r ❡ t❤❡
❞✐✛❡r ❡♥❝ ❡s ❜ ❡t✇❡ ❡♥ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝ ❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡ ❛r ❡ ✈❡r② s♠❛❧ ❧✱ ❝ ❛♥
❡①❤✐❜✐t st②❧✐③❡ ❞ ❢❛❝ts✳ ❚❤✐s st❛t✐st✐❝ ❛❧ ❡✛❡ ❝t ✐s ❝ ❛✉s❡ ❞✱ ✐♥ t❤✐s ❝ ❛s❡✱ ❜② ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❧❛❣ ✐♥
t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳
✻✳✸ ❱ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ✧st②❧✐③❡❞✧ ❢❛❝ts
❱ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ✐s ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✬st ②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts✬ ♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ ✐♥ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✷ ✳ ▼❛r❦ ❡t
r❡t✉r♥ s❡r✐❡s t❤❛t ❞✐s♣❧❛ ② t❤✐s ♣r♦♣ ❡rt ② ❛r❡ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❡❞ ❜ ② ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ✇✐t❤ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t
✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❧❡✈ ❡❧s✿ ❧♦ ✇✴❤✐❣❤ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② t❡♥❞s t♦ ❜ ❡ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇ ❡❞ ❜ ② ❧♦ ✇✴❤✐❣❤ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ✳ ș♥
❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ st✉❞✐❡s✱ s❡❡ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✱ s✉❝ ❤ ❡✛❡❝ts ✇❤❡r❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❜ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❛t ❤❛❞
♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇✐♥❣ ♣r♦♣ ❡rt✐❡s✿
✶✳ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡❞ ❛❣❡♥ ts ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡✐r ❢✉t✉r❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣❛st
✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❧✐❦ ❡✿
Et(Pt+1) =f(Pt,σRt,…,Rt−k,…) ✭✻✳✺✮
✷✳ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✬ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡✱ ❢♦r ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t r❡❛s♦♥s✱ t❤❡✐r r✐s❦ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ t❤❡② s✇✐t❝ ❤
❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ r❡❣✐♠❡s ♦❢ ❤✐❣❤✴❧♦ ✇ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐♥❞✉❝❡s t❤❡♠ t♦
♠❛❦ ❡ ❜✐❞s✴❛s❦s t❤❛t ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ❤✐❣❤✴❧♦ ✇ r❡t✉r♥s✳
❚❤❡s❡ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤❡s ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ t✐♠❡s s❡r✐❡s ✇✐t❤ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ❜✉t t❤❡ r❡s✉❧t
✐s ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② ❡♠ ❜ ❡❞❞❡❞ ✐♥s✐❞❡ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❜ ② ✐ts ❞❡s✐❣♥✳ ❚❤❡ t ✇ ♦ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ✶✮
❛♥❞ ✷✮ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❛♣♣r♦ ①✐♠❛t❡❞ ❜ ② ❛♥ ❛✉t♦r❡❣r❡ss✐✈ ❡ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡s ♠❛r❦ ❡t
r❡t✉r♥s✳ ❆❧t❤♦✉❣❤ t❤✐s ✐s ❤♦ ✇ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ♥ ✉♠❡r✐❝❛❧❧② ❡st✐♠❛t❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥ ✐t ❞♦ ❡s
♥♦t ❝♦♥s✐st ✐♥ ❛ ♣r♦♣ ❡r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧✱ ❝❛✉s❛❧ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥✳
ș♥ ♦✉r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❡st❡❞ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ♠✐①❡s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡❞ t❤❛t
❝ ❤❛rt✐sts ♠✐①❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ s✉❝ ❤ st ②❧✐③❡❞ ♣❤❡✲
♥♦♠❡♥❛✳ ❲ ❡ r✉♥ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ♠✐①❡❞ t❡❝ ❤♥✐❝❛❧✴✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇✐♥❣
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✿

✶✸✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
❚ ❡st ✾
P ❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❱ ❛❧✉❡ ❊①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥
◆ ✺✵✵ ◆✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❛②s
µV ✵✪ ◆♦ ❣r♦✇t❤ ✐♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
σV ✶✪ ✶✪ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥
◆r ❛❣❡♥ts ✺✵✵ ✹✵✪ ❚ ❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧ tr❛❞❡rs ✻✵✪ ①❡r❢❡❝t❧②
✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
▼❡♠♦r②
❧❡♥❣t❤✸ ❚ r❛❞❡rs ✉s❡ r✉❧❡s r❡❣❛r❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❧❛st
✸ r❡t✉r♥s ✭r t✱ rt−1 ❛♥❞ rt−2✮✳
µC ✶✪ ❚ r❛❞❡rs tr② t♦ s❡❧❧✴❜✉② ✇✐t❤ ❛ r❛♥✲
❞♦♠ ♠❛r❦✲✉♣ ♦❢
σC ✺✪
❆❣❡♥t
❲ ❡❛❧t❤❈❛s❤ ❛♥❞
①♦rt❢♦❧✐♦✷✵✵✵ ✐♥ ❝❛s❤ ❛♥❞ ❛ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ♦❢ ✶✵
st♦❝❦s ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ❛❣❡♥t ❛t t❤❡ st❛rt ♦❢
t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✹✿ ❙✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢♦r ❚ ❡st ✾ ✲ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ✇✐t❤ t❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧
tr❛❞❡rs
❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡✱ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✷✵ ✱ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ❞❡♣❛rts ❢r♦♠ ✐ts
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❚❤✐s ❞❡♣❛rt✉r❡ ❤❛♣♣❡♥s ✇❤❡♥ ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛❜❧❡ ❤✐❣❤ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢
❝❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡r ❤❛✈❡ str❛t❡❣✐❡s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❛❝t✐✈ ❛t❡❞✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❝❤❛rt✐sts s❡♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs t♦
❜✉② ✭♦r s❡❧❧✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡✐r ❝♦❧❧❡❝t✐✈❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥ ♠♦✈❡s t❤❡ r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❛✇❛② ❢r♦♠
t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧✳ ❲❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❜❡❧♦✇✴❛❜♦✈❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ t❤❡
♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ tr② t♦ ❜✉②✴s❡❧❧ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✳ ❚ ♦ ❜❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ r❡st♦r❡ t❤❡
♣r✐❝❡s t♦ t❤❡✐r ❝♦rr❡❝t ❧❡✈❡❧s t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ t♦ ♣✉t ♠♦r❡ ♣r❡ss✉r❡ ♦♥
t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡s t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ❝❤❛rt✐sts ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❞♦✳
șt ✐s ♣♦ss✐❜❧❡ t❤❛t ❝❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs ❝❛♥ ❛❜s♦r❜ ❛❧❧ ✭♦r ♠♦st✮ ♦❢ t❤❡ st♦❝❦s ♦❢ t❤❡
✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ tr❛❞❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡② ❛❢t❡r✇❛r❞s ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡✳ ❆t t❤❡s❡ ♠♦♠❡♥ts✱
t❤❡ ❝❤❛rt✐sts ❝❛♥ s❡❧❢✲❝♦♦r❞✐♥❛t❡ ❛s ❛ ❣r♦✉♣ ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❝♦♥tr♦❧ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t
♣r✐❝❡ t❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡✐r ♦r❞❡rs✳ ❚❤❡ s♣❡❡❞ ♦❢ ❣r♦✇t❤ ❛♥❞ ❛♠♣❧✐t✉❞❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣
♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❛r❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❝❤❛rt✐sts ✭t❤❡ ❜✐❣❣❡r t❤❡ r❡t✉r♥
❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s t❤❡ ❢❛st❡r t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐❧❧ r❛✐s❡✮ ❛♥❞ ♦♥ t❤❡✐r ❝❛s❤ r❡s❡r✈❡s ✭t❤❡ ♠♦r❡ ❝❛s❤
❝❤❛rt✐sts ❤♦❧❞ t❤❡ ❜✐❣❣❡r ❝❛♥ t❤❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❣❡t✮✳ ❲ ❡ s❡❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❛♣♣❡❛r✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡
✻✳✷✵ ✭❛t t❤❡ ❜❡❣✐♥♥✐♥❣ ❛t t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❛r♦✉♥❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ t✐♠❡ ✷✾✵✮ ♦r ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡
✻✳✷✶ ✭st❛rt✐♥❣ ❛t t✐♠❡ ✺✵ ❛♥❞ ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ❛t ❛r♦✉♥❞ ✹✺✵✮✳ ❉✉r✐♥❣ s✉❝❤ ♣❡r✐♦❞s ♠❛r❦❡t
♣r✐❝❡s ❣♦ ❛❜♦✈❡✴✉♥❞❡r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ❛♥❞ ✢✉❝t✉❛t❡ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❛♥② ❛♣♣❛r❡♥t ❧♦❣✐❝✳
❆s ♦♥❡ ❝❛♥ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❡ ✇❤❡♥ ♣r✐❝❡s ❞r♦♣ ❢❛r ❜❡❧♦✇ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳ ❚❤✐s ✐s ❛ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛✱ ❛❧❜❡✐t ♥♦t ✈❡r② ❢r❡q✉❡♥t✱ ✇❤❡♥ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ❝❛♥
❜❡ ❤✐❣❤❧② ✉♥❞❡r♣r✐❝❡❞ ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs s❡❧❧ s✉❝❤ st♦❝❦ ✐♥ ❜✉♥❞❧❡s ✇❤❡♥ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t
♦♣♣♦rt✉♥✐t✐❡s ❛r✐s❡✳ ❲ ❡ r❡❝♦♠♠❡♥❞ ✭ ❆❧❧❡♥ ❛♥❞ ●❛❧❡ ✱ ✷✵✵✵ ✮ ❢♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡s ♦❢ ♣♦s✐t✐✈❡
❛♥❞ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❡ ❛ss❡t ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✳

✻✳✸✳ ❱ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ✧st ②❧✐③❡❞✧ ❢❛❝ts ✶✸✶
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✷✵✿ ❊①❛♠♣❧❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ✇✐t❤ ✹✵✪ ❝❤❛rt✐sts✱ ✻✵✪ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥✲
❢♦r♠❡❞ ✭♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥ r❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐♥ ❜❧❛❝❦✮ ✲ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs
❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✹
❯♥t✐❧ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ r❡❛❝❤❡s ❛❣❛✐♥ ✐ts ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡
✈✐rt✉❛❧❧② t❤❡ r❡s✉❧t ♦❢ ♦r❞❡rs ❝♦♠✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ❝❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs✳ ❉✉r✐♥❣ t❤❡s❡ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣
♣❡r✐♦❞s✱ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ q✉♦t❡s ❛tt❛❝❤❡❞ t♦ ♦r❞❡rs ❛r❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t②
❧❡✈❡❧s ✭σC ✮ t❤❛♥ t❤❛t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✭ σV ✮✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ t❤✐s ✐s ❛ ♣♦ss✐❜❧❡
❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ✇❤② ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❤❛✈❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② r❡❣✐♠❡✿ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t r❡❣✐♠❡s
✐♠♣❧✐❡s ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t t②♣❡s ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭✇✐t❤ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t r❡t✉r♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s✮
t❤❛t ❞r✐✈❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤✐s ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✐♥ r❡❣✐♠❡ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❡
✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛✳ ▲♦♦❦✐♥❣ ❛t ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✷✷ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ s❡❡ t❤❡ r❡t✉r♥ t✐♠❡
s❡r✐❡s ❢♦r ♦♥❡ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ t❡st✳
❲ ❡ ❝❛♥ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t✇♦ ❝♦♠♣❛❝t ❛♥❞ ❞✐st✐♥❝t ♣❡r✐♦❞s✿ ❤✐❣❤ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ❧❡✈❡❧s ✭t✐♠❡
✵✲✶✷✵ ❛♥❞ ✸✵✵✲✹✵✵✮ ❛♥❞ ❧♦✇ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ❧❡✈❡❧s t❤r♦✉❣❤✲♦✉t t❤❡ r❡st ♦❢ t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥✳
❆s ❛r❣✉❡❞ ✐♥ ✭ ❙❤✐❧❧❡r ✱ ✶✾✽✵ ✮ t❤❡ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ❧❡✈❡❧s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ r❡t✉r♥s ❞♦ ♥♦t
❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t r❡t✉r♥s s❡r✐❡s✳ ș♥ ♦✉r ❝❛s❡ ♦✉r ❢✉♥❞❛✲
♠❡♥t❛❧ r❡t✉r♥ ❤❛✈❡✱ ❜② ❞❡s✐❣♥✱ ❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥✳
❚❤❡ ♦♥❧② ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛♥t ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✐s t❤❡ s❡❧❢✲❝♦♦r❞✐♥❛t❡❞✷❛❝t✐♦♥s
♦❢ ❝❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs ✭❛❧❧ t❤❡ ♦t❤❡r tr❛❞❡rs ❛r❡ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✮✳ ❚❤❡
❛♣♣❡❛r❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② r❡❣✐♠❡s✱ ♦♥❡ ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡❞ ❜② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ tr❛❞❡rs
✷❚❤✐s ❝♦ ♦r❞✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ✐♥ ✈ ♦❧✉♥ t❛r② ❛♥❞ ✐t ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥s ✇❤❡♥ ❛ s✉✣❝✐❡♥ t ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st ✉s❡ s✐♠✐❧❛r
str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❢♦r ❜✉②✐♥❣✴s❡❧❧✐♥❣✳ ❚❤❡s❡ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❛r❡ ❛❝t✐✈ ❛t❡❞ ✐♥ s✐♠✐❧❛r ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts✬
♦r❞❡rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥ t ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳

✶✸✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✷✶✿ ❆♥♦t❤❡r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ✇✐t❤ ✸✵✪ ❝❤❛rt✐sts✱ ✼✵✪ ♣❡r✲
❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✭♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥ r❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐♥ ❜❧❛❝❦✮ ✲ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✹
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✷✷✿ ❊①❛♠♣❧❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ r❡t✉r♥ s❡r✐❡s ✇✐t❤ ♠❛r❦❡t s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs
❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✹

✻✳✸✳ ❱ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ✧st ②❧✐③❡❞✧ ❢❛❝ts ✶✸✸
❛♥❞ ❛♥♦t❤❡r ❜ ② t❡❝ ❤♥✐❝❛❧ tr❛❞❡rs✱ ❛❧s♦ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡s t❤❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
r❡t✉r♥s✳ ❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡✱ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡s ✻✳✷✸ ❛♥❞ ✻✳✷✹ t❤❛t ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s ❛r❡ ❧❡♣t♦❦✉rt✐❝✱
❛s ♦♣♣ ♦s❡❞ t♦ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ r❡t✉r♥s ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❛r❡ ♥♦r♠❛❧✳
❲ ❡ ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐s ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❤❛s t❤❡
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs t❤❛t ❛r❡ ♠❛✐♥ t❛✐♥❡❞ ✜①❡❞ ❢♦r ❛❧❧ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✭ µV= 0 ❛♥❞σV= 1% ✮✳
❚❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♠ ✉❝ ❤ ♠♦r❡ ✐♥st❛♥❝❡s ♦❢ ❡①tr❡♠❡ r❡t✉r♥s ✭✷ t♦ ✹ t✐♠❡s σV
❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥s✮✳ ❚❤✐s ✐s ❝❛✉s❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st
tr❛❞❡rs ✭ µC= 1 ❛♥❞σC= 5% ✮✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❤✐❣❤ r❡t✉r♥
❞❡♠❛♥❞s✱ t❤❡② s❡♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs t❤❛t ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ♠♦r❡ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ✐♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳
❖t❤❡r t❤❛♥ ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ❡①tr❡♠❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s✱ t❤❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t
✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② r❡❣✐♠❡s ❝r❡❛t❡ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ♦❢ ♥♦♥✲❧✐♥❡❛r ❛✉t♦ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ r❡t✉r♥s✳ ❲ ❡ ❝❛♥
s❡❡ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✷✻ t❤❛t ♥♦r♠❛❧ r❡t✉r♥s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❝♦rr❡❧❛t❡❞ t❤ ✉s s❤♦ ✇✐♥❣ t❤❛t t❤❡
♠❛r❦ ❡t ❝❛♥♥♦t ❜ ❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ♦♥❧② ♣❛st r❡t✉r♥s✳ ❖♥ t❤❡ ♦t❤❡r ❤❛♥❞✱ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡
r❡t✉r♥s ❛r❡✱ ✐♥ ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ♠❡❛s✉r❡❞✱ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❜ ② ♣❛st ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r❡t✉r♥s ✭s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡
✻✳✷✺ ✮✳ ❚❤✐s t✐♠❡✱ t❤❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥ ♥♦♥✲❧✐♥❡❛r ❛✉t♦ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ s✐♠✐❧❛r
t♦ t❤❡ ♦♥❡s ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡❞ ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✭s❡❡ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r✮✳ ❲ ❡ t❡st ♦✉r
r❡s✉❧ts ❢♦r r♦❜✉st♥❡ss ❛♥❞ ♣❧❛❝❡ t❤❡ s✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ✐♥ t❤❡ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✺ ✳
ș♥ t❤❡ ❚ ❛❜❧❡✸ ✹✻✳✶✺ ✇ ❡ ✜rst s❤♦ ✇ t❤❛t t❤❡ st ②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts ✭✉s✐♥❣ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ t❡sts ❢♦r
❡①❝❡ss ❧❡♣t♦❦✉rt♦s✐s ❛♥❞ ♥♦♥✲❧✐♥❡❛r ❛✉t♦ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s✮ ❛r❡ ♣r❡s❡♥ t ✐♥ ♠ ✉❧t✐✲
♣❧❡ r✉♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✹ ✮✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r ✇ ❡ ♥❡❡❞ t♦ t❡st
❢♦r t❤❡ ❡♠❡r❣❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✇ ❡ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡✱ ❢♦r ❡✈ ❡r② s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥✱ t❤❡
❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡✴♠❡❞✐❛♥✴♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s ✻✳✻ ✳
✸❚❤❡ ❍✉rst ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ✇ ❛s ✉s❡❞✳ ❆ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❍ str✐❝t❧② ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ✵✳✺ ❛♥❞ ✶ ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡s ❧♦♥❣✲♠❡♠♦r②
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s✳ ❙t✉❞❡♥ t t t❡st ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♥ ✉❧❧ ❤ ②♣ ♦t❤❡s✐s ❛s ❍✉rst ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r❂✵✳✺
✹❋ ✐s t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ P ✐s t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✳ ❲ ❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ st❛t✐st✐❝s ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡
❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
❙✉♠♠❛r②
st❛t✐st✐❝s
❢♦r ✶✵✵
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s❊①❝❡ss ❦✉r✲
t♦s✐s❆✉t♦ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥
♦❢ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r❡✲
t✉r♥ ✭❍❯❘❙❚
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r✮▼❡❞✐❛♥
Ft−Pt ✭♠✮❆ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡
Ft−Pt ✭✉✮▼❛①✐♠ ✉♠
Ft−Pt ✭▼✮
▼❡❛♥ ✶✱✸✾✹✽✶✸✹✾ ✵✱✽✶✹✶✽✽✻✼ ✺✱✼✵✽✵✸✻ ✶✷✱✷✸✵✸✵✸✹ ✾✼✱✾✵✻✺✶
❙t❛♥❞❛r❞
❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥✶✱✵✷✷✷✹✹✹ ✵✱✶✵✶✻✽✾✽ ✸✱✻✽✸✶✸✾ ✽✱✾✽✽✼✻✷✹✾ ✽✻✱✵✻✺✺✻
❙t✉❞❡♥ t
t✲✈ ❛❧✉❡✶✸✱✺✾✽✶✷✶✼✯✯✯ ✸✶✳✹✯✯✯ ✶✺✱✹✾✼✼✺✯✯✯ ✶✸✱✻✵✻✷✶✹✾✯✯✯ ✶✶✱✸✼✺✽✶✯✯✯
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✺✿ ❘♦❜✉st♥❡ss t❡st ❢♦r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✹

✶✸✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
−0.15 −0.10 −0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.150 5 10 15 20
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✷✸✿ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡t r❡t✉r♥s ✲ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✹
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✷✹✿ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ r❡t✉r♥s ✲ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛✲
r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✹

✻✳✸✳ ❱ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ✧st ②❧✐③❡❞✧ ❢❛❝ts ✶✸✺
0 100 200 300 400 5000.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
LagACF
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✷✺✿ ❚ ❡st ✾ ❆✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠ ❢♦r ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ ♠❛r❦❡t r❡t✉r♥s ✲ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✹
0 100 200 300 400 5000.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
LagACF
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✷✻✿ ❚ ❡st ✾ ❆✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠ ❢♦r ♥♦r♠❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t r❡t✉r♥s ✲ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✹

✶✸✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
M=max(Ft−Pt)
m=median(Ft−Pt)
µ=mean(Ft−Pt)✭✻✳✻✮
❲ ❡ s❡❡ t❤❛t ♦✉r r❡s✉❧ts✱ ❛s ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✺ ✱ ✈ ❡r✐❢② t❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇✐♥❣ ❤ ②♣ ♦t❤✲
❡s✐s✿
✶✳ ▼❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐s ❛t ❧❡❛st ✶✵ t✐♠❡s ❜✐❣❣❡r t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ♠❡❞✐❛♥ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✭ M−10∗m >
0 ✮✳ ș❢ t❤✐s ✐s tr✉❡ t❤❛♥ ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡✱ ✐♥ ❡✈ ❡r② r❡♣ ❡t✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♦✉r ❚ ❡st ✾ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✱ ❛t ❧❡❛st ♦♥❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ✭❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ♠ ✉❝ ❤ ❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❛♥ t❤❡
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮✳ ❚❤✐s t❡st s❤♦ ✇s ♦♥❧② t❤❛t t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ♠♦♠❡♥ ts ✇ ❡r❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♣r✐❝❡s s♣✐❦ ❡ ✇ ❛ ② ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❨ ❡t✱ s✉❝ ❤ s✉❞❞❡♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠♦ ✈ ❡s
❝❛♥ ❧❛st ❢♦r ♦♥❧② ♦♥❡ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞ ✭✐❢ t❤❡r❡ ✐s ❛ s✉❞❞❡♥ s♣✐❦ ❡ ✐♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✮ ❛♥❞
❞♦ ♥♦t ❝♦♥st✐t✉t❡ ♣r♦♣ ❡r ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✳
✷✳ ❚ ♦ ♣r♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❛t ♦✉r ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡s✱ r♦❜✉st❧② ✱ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✱ ✇ ❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ t❤❡
r❡❧❛t✐♦♥s❤✐♣ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠❡❞✐❛♥ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞
✐ts ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✭ µ−1.5∗m >0 ✮✳ș❢ t❤✐s ✐s tr✉❡ t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
✐s ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ ❡①tr❡♠❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛t✐♦♥s ✭❤✐❣❤ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r♦✉♥❞ t❤❡ ♣ ❡❛❦ ♦❢ t❤❡
❜✉❜❜❧❡s✮✳ ❚❤✐s ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ s❤♦ ✇s t❤❛t ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❛♣♣ ❡❛r✳ ❲ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t♦ ❛❧s♦ t❡st
t❤❛t s✉❝ ❤ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❜r❡❛❦✳
✸✳ ❚ ♦ ♣r♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❛t ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❛♣♣ ❡❛r ❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦ ❝r❛s❤ ✇ ❡ ❝ ❤❡❝ ❦ ✐❢ t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ♣r✐❝❡
❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ✐s ♥♦t ❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❛♥ t ✇✐❝❡ t❤❡ ♠❡❞✐❛♥ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✭ µ−2.2∗m≤0 ✮✳ ș❢ t❤✐s
✐s tr✉❡ t❤❛♥ ✐t s❤♦ ✇s t❤❛t t❤❡ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ✇✐t❤ ✈ ❡r② ❤✐❣❤ ♣r✐❝❡ ♣ ❡❛❦s ❞♦ ♥♦t ❧❛st
✈ ❡r② ❧♦♥❣ ✲ ❤❡♥❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❝r❛s❤✳ ș❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ✇ ♦✉❧❞ st❛ ② ❤✐❣❤ t❤❡♥ t❤❡
❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ❜ ❡ ❛✛❡❝t❡❞ ✇ ❡ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡❞ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛❜❧② ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ ✷ t✐♠❡s
t❤❡ ♠❡❞✐❛♥✳
❲ ❡ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❤ ②♣ ♦t❤❡s✐s t❡sts✱ ❢♦r ♦✉r t❤r❡❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s✱ ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡✺
✻✳✶✻ t❤❛t ♦✉r ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ r❡s✉❧ts✱ ❛ ♣ ♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ s✉✣❝✐❡♥ t ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts
❝r❡❛t❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✱ ❛r❡ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧❧② s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥ t ❛♥❞ ❛♣♣ ❡❛r ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ t❧② ✐♥ ♦✉r s✐♠✲
✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦✉t♣✉ts✳
❲✐t❤ t❤❡s❡ r♦❜✉st ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛t✐♦♥s ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s❤♦ ✇♥ t❤❛t ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ✭❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦
✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣✱ ❛❧♦♥❣ ✇✐t❤ ❡①❝❡ss ❦✉rt♦s✐s✮ ❛r❡ ❝❛✉s❡❞ ❜ ② ❛ ❝ ❤❛✐♥ ♦❢ ❡✈ ❡♥ ts t❤❛t
✇ ❡ s✉♠♠❛r✐③❡ ❤❡r❡✿
✶✳ ❆r✐❝❡s ✢✉❝t✉❛t❡ ❛❧♦♥❣ ✇✐t❤ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳ ▼❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❝♦♥ tr♦❧❧❡❞ ❜ ②
✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛t ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇s t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳
✷✳ ❆ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ♣❛tt❡r♥ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s ❛♣♣ ❡❛rs ✭❜ ② ❝ ❤❛♥❝❡✮ ❛♥❞ ❛ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥ t
♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts s❡♥❞ ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡rs✱ ✇✐t❤ ✐♥ ✈ ♦❧✉♥ t❛r② ❝♦ ♦r❞✐♥❛t✐♦♥✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤
s❤✐❢t t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❛ ✇ ❛ ② ❢r♦♠ ✐ts ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳
✺❲ ❡ ❝♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t r❡❥❡❝t t❤❡ H0 ❤②♣♦t❤❡s✐s ✭✉❂✷✯♠✮ ❛♥❞ t❤✐s ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t t❤❡ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ✐s ♥♦t
s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥t❧② ❜✐❣❣❡r t❤❛♥ t✇✐❝❡ t❤❡ ♠❡❞✐❛♥ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳

✻✳✸✳ ❱ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ✧st ②❧✐③❡❞✧ ❢❛❝ts ✶✸✼
❙✉♠♠❛r②
st❛t✐st✐❝s
❢♦r ✶✵✵
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s❚ ❡st
▼❃✶✵✯♠❚ ❡st
✉❃✶✳✺✯♠❚ ❡st
✉❃✷✯♠
▼❡❛♥ ✺✶✱✽✺✶✺ ✸✱✺✾✹✾✾ ✵✱✼✶✻✺✹✾✽✹
❙t❛♥❞❛r❞
❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥✼✶✱✵✺✷✶ ✺✱✼✶✶✺✸ ✺✱✺✵✸✺✻✵✷✾
❙t✉❞❡♥ t
t✲✈ ❛❧✉❡✼✱✷✾✼✻✼✯✯✯ ✻✱✷✾✹✷✼✯✯✯ ✲✵✱✼✼✼✹✾✷✸✾
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✻✿ ❍②♣ ♦t❤❡s✐s t❡sts ❢♦r t❤❡ ♣r❡s❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s
✸✳ ❲❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❜ ❡❧♦ ✇✴❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ ✐ts ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ st❛rt ❜✉②✐♥❣✴s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❛ss❡ts ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ♣ ♦t❡♥ t✐❛❧ ♣r♦✜t✳
✹✳ ș❢ ♠♦r❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts ❛r❡ ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ ❜✉②✴s❡❧❧ ❛ss❡ts t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❝❛♥ s❡❧❧✴❜✉② t❤❡♥ ❝♦♥ tr♦❧ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s ✇✐❧❧ ♠♦ ✈ ❡ t♦ ✇ ❛r❞s ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts✳ ❚❤✐s ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✱
✇❤✐❧❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r tr② t♦ ♣r♦✜t ♦❢ t❤❡ s✉❞❞❡♥ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣✱ ❧❛sts ✉♥ t✐❧ ❢✉♥✲
❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝♦♥s✉♠❡ ❛❧❧ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r r❡s♦✉r❝❡s ✭❡✐t❤❡r ❛❧❧ t❤❡✐r ❝❛s❤ ❢r♦♠
❜✉②✐♥❣ ✉♥❞❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞ st♦ ❝ ❦s ♦r t❤❡② s❡❧❧ ❛❧❧ t❤❡✐r ♦ ✈ ❡r♣r✐❝❡❞ ❛ss❡ts✮✳
✺✳ ❋ r♦♠ t❤✐s ♠♦♠❡♥ t t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❡①❤❛✉st❡❞ t❤❡✐r r❡s♦✉r❝❡s ❢♦r
♥❡✇ ♦r❞❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡❧② ❝r❡❛t❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ♦r❞❡rs ♦❢ t❤❡
❝ ❤❛rt✐sts✳ ❈r❡❞✐t ❧✐♥❡s ❛r❡ ✐rr❡❧❡✈ ❛♥ t s✐♥❝❡ ❜ ♦t❤ t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❣❡t ❝r❡❞✐t
❢♦r ❢✉rt❤❡r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t✳
✻✳ ▼❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ♥♦ ✇ ✢✉❝t✉❛t❡ ❛s ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s ♦❢ t❤❡
❝ ❤❛rt✐sts ❛♥❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ✭t❤❛t ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ✐s ✉s✉✲
❛❧❧② ✈ ❡r② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮✳
❲ ❡ ❛r❡ ♥♦ ✇ ✐♥ ❛ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② r❡❣✐♠❡ ✇❤❡r❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡s ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ♠❛r✲
❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ tr❡♥❞ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✇✐❧❧
❡✈ ♦❧✈ ❡ ✐♥ tr❡♥❞s ❛♥❞ t❤ ✉s ❢♦r♠ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✳
✼✳ ▼❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ♣ ❡rs✐st ❛s ❧♦♥❣ ❛s ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ r❡s♦✉r❝❡s ❛♥❞
t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ ❝♦✉♥ t❡r♣❛rt✐❡s ✭✉s✉❛❧❧② ❛❧s♦ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✮ t❤❛t ❡♥❛❜❧❡ t❤❡
❡①❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts ❛t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛ ✇ ❛ ② ❢r♦♠ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧s✳ ❲❤❡♥ t❤❡s❡ r❡s♦✉r❝❡s ❞✐✲
♠✐♥✐s❤ ♦r ❝♦✉♥ t❡r♣❛rt✐❡s ❞✐s❛♣♣ ❡❛r✱ t❤❡ ♦r❞❡rs ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭✇✐t❤
t❤❡✐r r❡♠❛✐♥✐♥❣ ❛ss❡ts✮ ✇✐❧❧ ❞r✐✈ ❡ ❜❛❝ ❦ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ t♦ ✇ ❛r❞s t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❧❡✈✲
❡❧s✳ ❚❤✐s st❡♣ ❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦ ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥ t❛❧ r❡✈ ❡rs❛❧ ✐♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♣r✐❝❡✴❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ tr❡♥❞✳ ❲❤❡♥ s✉❝ ❤ ❛ r❡✈ ❡rs❛❧ ❛rr✐✈ ❡s ✭❝❛♥ ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥ ❜ ②
❝ ❤❛♥❝❡✮ ❛ ♣❛rt ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts ✇✐❧❧ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡✐r s❡❧❧✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❛❝t✐✈ ❛t❡❞ ❛♥❞
✇✐❧❧ st❛rt tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥✳
✽✳ ❆❢t❡r ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❝r❛s❤ ❛♥❞ ✇❤❡♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ r❡❛❝ ❤ t❤❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡ t❤❡ ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡r ❜ ♦ ♦❦ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ✜❧❧❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ♦r❞❡rs ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳
❚❤❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ st❛❜✐❧✐③✐♥❣ ❡✛❡❝t✳

✶✸✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
❲ ❡ ❝❛♥ ♥♦✇ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ t❤❡ ❛♥s✇❡r t♦ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥ ★✶ ❜② ❛❞❞✐♥❣ t❤❛t
❛ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ♠❛r❦❡t✱ t❤❛t s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ❡①❤✐❜✐t t❤❡ ✬st②❧✐③❡ ❞✬ ❢❛❝ts✱ ❝ ❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❝r ❡ ❛t❡ ❞ ✐♥ ❛♥
♥✉♠❜ ❡r ♦❢ ✇❛②s✿ ❝ ♦♠❜✐♥✐♥❣ ❞✐✛❡r ❡♥t t②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ♦r ♥♦t ✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞✮
♦r ❤❛✈✐♥❣ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t❤❛t ✉s❡ ❧❛❣❣❡ ❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭s❡ ❡ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳✷✳✶ ✳
❖♥❡ ❝❛♥ ♠❛❦❡ t❤❡ ❛r❣✉♠❡♥t t❤❛t s✐♥❝❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s r❡t✉r♥ t♦ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✲
✉❡s✱ ❝❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs ✇✐❧❧ ❧♦♦s❡ ♠♦♥❡② ❛♥❞ s♦♦♥ ❞✐s❛♣♣❡❛r ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❲ ❡ ✇✐❧❧
s❡❡ ✐♥ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳✺ t❤❛t t❤✐s ✐s ♥♦t ❛❧✇❛②s tr✉❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ s✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t str❛t❡❣✐❡s
❞❡♣❡♥❞s ♦♥ t❤❡ ❤♦r✐③♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ❛♥❞ ♠✐① ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t t②♣❡s ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳
✻✳✹ ❇✉❜❜❧❡s✿ ❤♦✇ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ❣r♦✇ ❛❜♦✈❡ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥✲
❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
ș♥ t❤✐s ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✇❡ ❧♦♦❦ ❢♦r ❛♥s✇❡rs t♦ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ★✹ ❛♥❞ ★✺✳ ▼♦r❡
s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛❧❧② ✇❡ s❡❛r❝❤ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❜❛s✐❝ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧ ❝❛✉s❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝r❡❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❞❡str✉❝t✐♦♥
♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✳
▼❛r❦❡t ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ❛s ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛ ❞✉r✐♥❣ ✇❤✐❝❤ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s r✐s❡
❛❜r✉♣t❧② ✱ ❛t ❧❡✈❡❧s ❛❜♦✈❡ ✇❤❛t t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥✱ ❛♥❞ t❤✐s
r✐s❡ ✐s ❢♦❧❧♦✇❡❞ ❜② ❛♥ ❛❜r✉♣t ❢❛❧❧ ✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❚❤❡ ❡ss❡♥t✐❛❧ ❡❧❡♠❡♥t ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢
❛ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ✐s t❤❛t ✐t ❝♦♥s✐sts ✐♥ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ r✐s❡ ❛♥❞ ❢❛❧❧ ❛♥❞ t❤❛t t❤❡ r✐s❡ ✐s ❢❛r ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❯♥❧✐❦❡ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ st✉❞✐❡s ✇❤❡r❡ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐s
✉♥❦♥♦✇♥✱ ✉s✐♥❣ ♦✉r r❡s❡❛r❝❤ ♠❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣② ✇❡ ❝❛♥ q✉✐❝❦❧② ♦❜s❡r✈❡ s✉❝❤ ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛
❜② ❝♦♠♣❛r✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐t❤ ✐ts ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✭❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐t❤ r✐s❦✲
♥❡✉tr❛❧ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✐s ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ✇❤❡♥ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ❛t t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❧❡✈❡❧✮✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✇❡ s❤♦✇❡❞ ❤♦✇ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ✐♥✢✉✲
❡♥❝❡❞ ❜② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ♦r ❝❤❛rt✐st ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ♣r♦✜t ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t❡❞✮✳
❋ ♦r ❛ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ t♦ ❡①✐st✱ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ t♦ s❡♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs t♦ s❡❧❧ ❛♥❞ ❜✉② ❛♥❞ ♣r✐❝❡ q✉♦t❡s
t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r ❛♥❞ ❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳
❲ ❡ ✜rst ❧♦♦❦ ❛t ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ❋ ♦r s✉❝❤ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t♦ s❡♥❞
♦r❞❡rs t♦ ❜✉② ♦r s❡❧❧ ❛ss❡ts ❛❜♦✈❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ t❤❡② s❤♦✉❧❞ ❤❛✈❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❲ ❡ ❤❛✈❡ s❡❡♥ t❤❛t ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ❛♥ ap ❜✐❛s ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐t❤
❡①❝❡ss ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ✱ ❜✉t ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❞❡✈✐❛t❡ ♦♥❧② s❤♦rt❧② ❢r♦♠ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧s ✭t❤❡
♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ r❡t✉r♥s ❢❛st t♦✇❛r❞s t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮✳ ❲❤❡♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
❤❛✈❡ ❛bp❜✐❛s t❤❡② ✇✐❧❧ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✇❤✐❝❤ ✇✐❧❧ r❡st ❛t ❛ r❡❧❛t✐✈❡❧② ❝♦♥st❛♥t
❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ❛❜♦✈❡ ♦r ❜❡❧♦✇ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❲✐t❤ s✉❝❤ ❛ ♠♦❞❡❧ s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ✇❡
✇✐❧❧ ♥♦t ❜❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ♦❜t❛✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s s✐♥❝❡ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✐s ✧❝♦rr❡❝t❧②✧ ❧✐♥❦❡❞ ♦♥❧② t♦ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❖♥❡ ✧❝r❡❛t✐✈❡✧ ✇❛②
✇♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ t♦ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠ t❤❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ap ❛♥❞bp ✐♥t♦ t✐♠❡ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥s s✉❝❤ ❛s✿
ap(t) =ap(0)∗(1+α∗sin(t)) ✭✻✳✼✮

✻✳✹✳ ❇✉❜❜❧❡s✿ ❤♦ ✇ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ❣r♦ ✇ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✶✸✾
βp(t) =βp(0)∗(1+β∗(1+∗cost(t))) ✭✻✳✽✮
❚❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❝r❡❛t❡❞ ❜ ② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝ ❜✐❛s❡s s✉❝ ❤ ❛s
ap(t),bp(t) ✇♦✉❧❞ ❣♦ ❛❜♦✈❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡♥ ❞♦✇♥ ✐♥ t❤❡ s❤❛♣❡
♦❢ ❛ ❣❡♦♠❡tr✐❝❛❧ s✐♥✉s ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✳ ❲ ❡ ❝❛♥ ❡✈❡♥ ❝♦♥tr♦❧ ✈❡r② ✇❡❧❧ t❤❡ ❛♠♣❧✐t✉❞❡ ❛♥❞
❞✉r❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❜② ❛❝t✐♥❣ ♦♥ t❤❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞✐❝✐t② ♦❢ t❤❡ s✐♥ ❛♥❞ ❝ ♦s ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥s✳
❲❤✐❧❡ t❤✐s ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤ ✇♦✉❧❞ ❝r❡❛t❡ t❤❡ ❞❡s✐r❡❞ ❡✛❡❝t✱ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✱ ✐t ✇♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t
♣r♦✈✐❞❡ ❛ s♦✉♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥✳
❲ ❡ ❝❛♥ ❛✣r♠ t❤❛t ❢♦r ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ t♦ ❣♦ ❛❜♦✈❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ✇❡
s❤♦✉❧❞ ❤❛✈❡ ❛t ❧❡❛st ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✿
✶✳ ❲❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❣♦❡s ❛❜♦✈❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✭❢♦r ✇❤❛t❡✈❡r r❡❛s♦♥✮
t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ s❡❧❧ t❤❡ ♦✈❡r♣r✐❝❡❞ ❛ss❡t✳ ❚❤❡✐r ❝♦✉♥t❡r♣❛rt✐❡s ✇✐❧❧
❜❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t❤❛t ❞♦ ♥♦t ❜❛s❡ t❤❡✐r ♣r✐❝❡ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ♦♥ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ ❡✳❣✳ ❝❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs✳ ❍❛✈✐♥❣ ❜♦✉❣❤t ❛❧❧✱ ♦r ♠♦st✱ ♦❢ t❤❡ tr❛❞❡❞ ❛ss❡ts
t❤❡s❡ ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❡ t♦ ❜✐❞ ✉♣ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛
s♣❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡✳ ❚❤✐s ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❣r♦✇ ✇✐t❤ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❛ s♣❡❡❞ ❛♥❞ ✉♣ t♦ ❛
❤❡✐❣❤t ❞❡♣❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ t❤❡ ❛❣❣r❡ss✐✈❡♥❡ss ❛♥❞ ❝❛s❤ r❡s❡r✈❡s ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ s♣❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈❡
tr❛❞❡rs✳
✷✳ ș♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs s❡♥❞ ♦r❞❡rs t♦ s❡❧❧ ❛t ❤✐❣❤❡r ❛♥❞ ❤✐❣❤❡r ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ✧♦t❤❡r✧
✐♥✈❡st♦rs s❤♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ ❜✉② ❛t s✉❝❤ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❲❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡
♣❛ss❡s ❛❜♦✈❡ ✐ts ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ◆❖❚ tr② t♦
s❡❧❧ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ✭t♦ ❝❛s❤ ✐♥ t❤✐s ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ❣❛✐♥✮✳ ș♥st❡❛❞ t❤❡② ✇✐❧❧ s♣❡❝✉❧❛t❡ t❤✐s
❣r♦✇t❤ ❛♥❞ tr② t♦ ❜✉② t❤❡ ❛ss❡t t♦ s❡❧❧ ✐t ❛t ❛♥ ❡✈❡♥ ❤✐❣❤❡r ♣r✐❝❡✳ ș♥✈❡st♦rs
✇✐t❤ s✉❝❤ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ✭❛ ♠✐① ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❛♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❛ ❝❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡r✮ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡
❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✧❙ș❚❍✧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ st✉❞✐❡❞ ❧❛t❡r ♦♥✳
ș♥ t❤❡ ✜rst ❝❛s❡ ✇❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇❤❡r❡ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♠✐①❡❞
✇✐t❤ ❝❤❛rt✐st ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ❙✉❝❤ ❛ ♠✐① ♦❢ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥✱ ✹✵✪ ❝❤❛rt✐st ❛♥❞ ✻✵✪ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ❛❧r❡❛❞② ♣r♦✈❡❞ t♦ ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥t❧② ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ✐♥ ❚ ❡st ✾ ✭✇✐t❤ s✉♠✲
♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ✐♥ t❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✺ ✮✳ ❖♥❡ ❝❛♥ ❛r❣✉❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♠✐① ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ ❝❤♦s❡♥
✐s ❛r❜✐tr❛r② ❛♥❞ ♠✐❣❤t ♥♦t ❜❡ r❡❛❧✐st✐❝✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ✇❡ ✇✐❧❧ ♣❡r❢♦r♠ ❚ ❡st ✶✵ ✇❤❡r❡ ✇❡
✇✐❧❧ ✈ ❛r② t❤❡ ♣r♦♣♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❝❤❛rt✐st ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ tr② t♦ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡ ❛
♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♥tr❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✳
❲ ❡ ✈ ❛r② ❳✱ t❤❡ ♣❡r❝❡♥t❛❣❡ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✱ ❢r♦♠ ✶✵✵✪ ❞♦✇♥✇❛r❞s ❛♥❞
❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ❧❡✈❡❧ ✇❡ r✉♥ ✺✵ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❲ ❡ ✇❛♥t t♦ ✜♥❞ ♦✉t ✇❤❛t ✐s t❤❡ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧
♣❡r❝❡♥t❛❣❡ ♦❢ ❝❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ♣r♦❞✉❝❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✳ ș❢ ✐s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t t♦
❝♦♥s✐❞❡r t❤❛t ❛❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ ✇❡❛❧t❤ ❛t t❤❡ ❜❡❣✐♥♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ t❤❡
s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❋ ♦r ❛❧❧ ❧❡✈❡❧s ♦❢ ❳✪ ✇❡ r✉♥ ✸✵ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ r❡❝♦r❞✱ ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤✱ t❤❡

✶✹✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
❚ ❡st ✶✵
P ❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❱ ❛❧✉❡ ❊①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥
µV ✵✪ ◆♦ ❣r♦✇t❤ ✐♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
σV ✶✪ ✶✪ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥
◆ ✸✺✵ ◆✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❛②s
◆r ❛❣❡♥ts ✺✵✵ ①✪ ❳❡r❢❡❝t❧② ș♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
✭✶✵✵✲①✮✪ ❈❤❛rt✐st ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭♥♦t ✐♥✲
❢♦r♠❡❞✮
▼❡♠♦r②
❧❡♥❣t❤✸ ❈❤❛rt✐st ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st ✉s✐♥❣
s♣❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈❡ r✉❧❡s ♦❢ ❝♦♥❝❡r♥✐♥❣ t❤❡
❧❛st ✸ ♠❛r❦❡t r❡t✉r♥s
µC ✱σC ✭✶✪✱✼✪✮ ❚ r❛❞❡rs tr② t♦ s❡❧❧✴❜✉② ✇✐t❤ ❛ r❛♥✲
❞♦♠ ♠❛r❦✲✉♣ ♦❢ R∈N(µ=
1%,σ= 7%)
❲ ❡❛❧t❤ ✶✵✵✵✱✶✵ ❊❛❝❤ ✐♥✈❡st♦r st❛rts ✇✐t❤ ✶✵✵✵ ✐♥
❝❛s❤ ❛♥❞ ✶✵ st♦❝❦s✳ ș❳❖ ♣r✐❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡
st♦❝❦ ✐s ✷✵
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✼✿ ❙✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢♦r ❚ ❡st ✶✵✿ ✇❡ ✈ ❛r② t❤❡ ♣r♦♣♦rt✐♦♥ ❳ ❢r♦♠ ✶✵✵✪
❞♦✇♥✇❛r❞s
❳❡r❝❡♥t❛❣❡
♦❢ ș♥❢♦r♠❡❞
✐♥✈❡st♦rs
✭①✪✮❳❡r❝❡♥t❛❣❡
♦❢ ❈❤❛rt✐st
✐♥✈❡st♦rs
✭✶✲①✮✪▼❡❞✐❛♥
❜✉❜❜❧❡ s✐③❡❆ ✈❡r❛❣❡
❜✉❜❜❧❡ s✐③❡▼❛①✐♠✉♠
❜✉❜❜❧❡ s✐③❡
✼✵ ✸✵ ✵ ✵✱✸✶ ✸✱✽✻
✻✾ ✸✶ ✵ ✵✱✾✶ ✾✱✹✺
✻✽ ✸✷ ✵ ✵✱✻✾ ✺✱✺✽
✻✼ ✸✸ ✵✱✵✶✺ ✶✱✼✺✺✽ ✶✹✱✵✻✾
✻✻ ✸✹ ✵✱✵✹ ✹✱✹✷ ✹✵✱✶✸
✻✺ ✸✺ ✶✱✶✾ ✺✱✹✾ ✸✽✱✶✶✺
✻✹ ✸✻ ✶✱✾✶ ✾✱✸✵✻ ✺✻✱✶✽✷
✻✸ ✸✼ ✸✱✺✾ ✽✱✻✷✻✼ ✺✵✱✺✽✹
✻✷ ✸✽ ✺✱✷✼ ✾✱✻✺ ✻✺✱✹✸
✻✶ ✸✾ ✻✱✻✹ ✶✸✱✶✹✺ ✼✵✱✺✸
✻✵ ✹✵ ✻✱✹✼ ✶✽✱✼✾✶ ✶✷✽✱✹
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✽✿ ❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r r❡s✉❧ts ♦❢ ♠✉❧t✐♣❧❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ♦♥ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ❧❡✈❡❧s
♦❢ r❡❧❛t✐✈❡ ♣r♦♣♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❝❤❛rt✐sts t♦ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳

✻✳✹✳ ❇✉❜❜❧❡s✿ ❤♦ ✇ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ❣r♦ ✇ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✶✹✶
❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡✴♠❡❞✐❛♥✴♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳
❲ ❡ ❧✐st t❤❡ t❡st r❡s✉❧ts ❛t ❧❡✈ ❡❧s st❛rt✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ✼✵✪ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭❛ ❧♦ ✇ ❡r
♣ ❡r❝❡♥ t❛❣❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts ❝❛♥♥♦t ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥ t❧② ♠♦ ✈ ❡ ❛ ✇ ❛ ② ♣r✐❝❡s ❢r♦♠ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡s✮✳ ❖✉r r❡s✉❧ts ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡ t❤❛t ❛ ❣r♦ ✇✐♥❣ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♠❛♥❛❣❡
t♦ s❧♦ ✇❧② ♠♦ ✈ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛ ✇ ❛ ② ❢r♦♠ ✐ts ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ș♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✷✼ ✇ ❡ s❤♦ ✇
❛♥ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s ✇✐t❤ ✸✶✪ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs ✇ ❡r❡ ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ✈ ❡r② s♠❛❧❧ ♣r✐❝❡
❜✉❜❜❧❡s✳ ❆ t ❛ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ♦❢ ✸✺✪ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇ ❡ ♥♦t✐❝❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ s✐③❡
✐s ✹✳✹✷ ✉♥✐ts ✭♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ❞✉r✐♥❣ ❛ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ♦❢ ✷✷✪ ♦ ✈ ❡r t❤❡
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮✳ ❇✉❜❜❧❡s ❛r❡ ♥♦ ✇ ❜✐❣❣❡r ❛♥❞ ♠♦r❡ ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥ t✱ ❛s ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡❞ ✐♥
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✷✽ ✱ ❛♥❞ t❤❡② ❝❛♥ ♠♦ ✈ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛t ❛♥ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ♦❢ ✹✵ ✉♥✐ts ✭❛t t❤❡s❡
❜✉❜❜❧❡s ♣ ❡❛❦s ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ❞♦✉❜❧❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮✳ șt ✐s ❝❧❡❛r t❤❛t
✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❢r❛❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts ✇✐❧❧ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s❡r✐❡s ✇✐t❤ ❜✐❣❣❡r ❛♥❞ ♠♦r❡
❢r❡q✉❡♥ t ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✳
șt ✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t t♦ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❞❡✲
♣ ❡♥❞ ♦♥ ❛ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ❢❛❝t♦rs✳ ❋✐rst ♦❢ ❛❧❧✱ ✐t ✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛ss ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ ❝❛s❤ r❡s♦✉r❝❡s t♦ ❜✉② ❛t ❧❡❛st ❛❧❧ t❤❡ st♦ ❝ ❦s ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❚❤✐s ✐s ❛ ♥❡❝❡ss❛r② ❜✉t ♥♦t s✉✣❝✐❡♥ t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❡♠❡r❣❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❛
♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡✳ ❊✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts ♠❛♥❛❣❡ t♦ ❤♦❧❞ ❛❧❧ ✭♦r ♠♦st✮ st♦ ❝ ❦s t❤❡② ✇✐❧❧ st✐❧❧
♥❡❡❞ ❡①tr❛ ❝❛s❤ t♦ ❜ ❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❢✉❡❧ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ tr❡♥❞ ❛♥❞ ❜✉② st♦ ❝ ❦s ❛t ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡s✳
▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ ❛❢t❡r ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s♦❧❞ t❤❡✐r ♦ ✈ ❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❝❛♥ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡
♦♥❧② ✐❢ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡✐t ② ❡①✐sts ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳
❲ ❡ ❝❛♥ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❛t✱ ✇✐t❤ ✸✶✪ ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts✱ s♠❛❧❧ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❡♠❡r❣❡♥❝❡ ✭t✐♠❡
♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ✾✺✲✶✸✵ ❛♥❞ ✶✸✺✲✶✻✵✮✳ ❲❤❡♥ ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❢r❛❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts✱ ❧✐❦ ❡ ✐♥
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✷✽ ✱ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❛♣♣ ❡❛r ♠♦r❡ ❢r❡q✉❡♥ t✳ ❚ ♦ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ✐♥ ♠♦r❡ ❞❡t❛✐❧ ✇❤ ② ❛♥❞
❤♦ ✇ t❤❡s❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ❢♦r♠❡❞ ✇ ❡ ❡①❛♠✐♥❡ t❤❡ tr❛♥s❢❡r ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts ❞✉r✐♥❣ ❛
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥✳
ș♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✷✽ ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ♠♦r❡ ❢❡❛t✉r❡s ♦❢ ❛♥ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ♠❛r✲
❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛s ❜ ❡❢♦r❡✱ ✇❤❡r❡ ✸✺✪ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts✳
❚❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠s ♠♦r❡ ❛♥❞ ❜✐❣❣❡r ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✳ ❲❤❡♥ t❤❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s r✐s❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs s❡❧❧ t❤❡✐r ✭♦ ✈ ❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞✮ ❛ss❡ts ❛♥❞ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st✳
❲ ❡ s❡❡✱ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✷✾ ✱ t❤❛t ♠♦st ❛ss❡ts ❛r❡ q✉✐❝ ❦❧② tr❛♥s❢❡rr❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ✐♥✲
❢♦r♠❡❞ t♦ t❤❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❆❢t❡r t❤✐s ♠♦♠❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ♠♦ ✈ ❡ ❛ ✇ ❛ ② ❢r♦♠
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧s✳ ❆s ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ❡①❝❡ss ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❣r❛♣❤✱ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✵ ✱ t❤❡ s✐♠✲
✉❧❛t❡❞ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ✇✐t❤ ♠♦r❡ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❛r❡ t❤♦s❡ ✇❤❡♥ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✐s ♠♦st❧② ❞♦♥❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥
❝ ❤❛rt✐sts✳ ❚❤❡ tr❛❞❡❞ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ❣r❛♣❤✱ ❢r♦♠ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✶ ✱ ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡s t❤❛t tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❤❛s ❛
❧♦ ✇ ❡r ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ✇❤❡♥ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t❡❞ ❢r♦♠ r❡❛❧✐t ② ✭❝ ❤❛rt✐st ❞r✐✈ ❡♥✮✳ ❚❤✐s ❤❛♣✲
♣ ❡♥s ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♥♦t ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛♥ ②♠♦r❡✳ ❲✐t❤ t❤❡s❡ r♦❜✉st
♦❜s❡r✈ ❛t✐♦♥s ✇ ❡ ❣✐✈ ❡ ❛ ❢❡✇ q✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈ ❡ ❛♥s✇ ❡rs ❢♦r t❤❡ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✳
❘ ❡s❡ ❛r ❝❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥ ★✹ ✿ ❲❤❛t ❛r ❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♠✐❝r ♦ ❝ ♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ❢♦r t❤❡ ❡♠❡r✲
❣❡♥❝ ❡ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝ ❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s❄

✶✹✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
0 50 100 150 20016 18 20 22 24
TimePricesFundamental Value
Market Price
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✷✼✿ ❊①❛♠♣❧❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ r❡s✉❧ts ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐t❤ ✸✶✪ ❝❤❛rt✐st ✭s❡❡ t❛❜❧❡
✻✳✶✼ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✮
0 50 100 150 200 250 30016 18 20 22 24 26 28
TimePricesFundamental Value
Market Price
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✷✽✿ ❊①❛♠♣❧❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ r❡s✉❧ts ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐t❤ ✸✺✪ ❝❤❛rt✐st ✭s❡❡ t❛❜❧❡
✻✳✶✼ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✮

✻✳✹✳ ❇✉❜❜❧❡s✿ ❤♦ ✇ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ❣r♦ ✇ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✶✹✸
0 50 100 150 200 250 3000 5 10 15 20 25
TimeAverage number of stocksInformed
Chartist
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✷✾✿ P♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣s ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✐♥ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐t❤ ✸✺✪
❝❤❛rt✐st ✭s❡❡ t❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✼ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✮
0 50 100 150 200 250 300−0.001 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.006
TimeExcess Volatility, Vol(Fundamental) − Vol(Market)
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✵✿ ❊①❝❡ss ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡t r❡t✉r♥s ✐♥ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐t❤
✸✺✪ ❝❤❛rt✐st ✭s❡❡ t❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✼ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✮

✶✹✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
1 17 36 55 74 93 114 138 162 186 210 234 258 282
TimeVolume
0 1000 2000 3000
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✶✿ ❚ r❛❞✐♥❣ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ✐♥ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐t❤ ✸✺✪ ❝❤❛rt✐st ✭s❡❡
t❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✼ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✮
❆♥s✇❡r✿ ❚❤❡ ♥❡ ❝ ❡ss❛r② ❝ ♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ❢♦r t❤❡ ❛♣♣ ❡ ❛r ❛♥❝ ❡ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝ ❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❛r ❡✿
❛✳ ❚❤❡ ❡①✐st❡♥❝ ❡ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t str ❛t❡ ❣✐❡s ✇❡r ❡ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝ ❡s ♦❢ ❜✐❞s ❛r ❡ ♥♦t ❧✐♥❦❡ ❞
✇✐t❤ ❛ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡
❜✳ ș♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ str ❛t❡ ❣✐❡s ❢r ♦♠ ❛✮ ♠✉st ❤❛✈❡ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ ❝ ❛s❤ t♦
✐✳ ❜✉② ♠♦st st♦ ❝❦s ❤❡❧❞ ❜② ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ❜ ❛s❡ ❞ str ❛t❡ ❣✐❡s✳
✐✐✳ ❜ ❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ tr ❛❞❡ ❛t ❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❡♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♣r✐❝ ❡s
Pr✐❝ ❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❝ ❛♥ ❜ ❡ ✐♥✐t✐❛t❡ ❞ ❜② r ❛♥❞♦♠ ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥ts ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡ t❤❛t
r ❡s✉❧t ✐♥ ❛♥ ♦✈❡r ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ♣r ❡s❡♥❝ ❡ ♦❢ ❛ ❣r ♦✉♣ ♦❢ ✉♥✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞
✭♦r ❜ ❛❞ ❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞✮ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t❤✐s ♦✈❡r ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝ ❛♥ ❣❡♥❡r ❛t❡ ❛ ❝ ♦ ♦r ❞✐♥❛t❡ ❞ ❜✉②✐♥❣
❛❝t✐♦♥✳ ș♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧ ❧ s❡❧ ❧ t❤❡ ♦✈❡r♣r✐❝ ❡ ❞ ❛ss❡t ❜✉t ❝❤❛rt✐st ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛❜s♦r❜
t❤❡ ❡♥t✐r ❡ ♦✛❡r✳ ș❢ ❝❤❛rt✐st st✐❧ ❧ ❤❛✈❡ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ ❝ ❛s❤ t❤❡② ❝ ❛♥ ❝ ♦♥t✐♥✉❡ tr ❛❞✐♥❣✱ ❛♠♦♥❣
t❤❡♠✱ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ❛t ❤✐❣❤❡r ❛♥❞ ❤✐❣❤❡r ♣r✐❝ ❡s✳ ❚❤❡ ♣r✐❝ ❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ✇✐❧ ❧ ❜✉rst ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡r ❡
✐s ♥♦ ♠♦r ❡ ❝ ❛s❤ t♦ ❜✉② st♦ ❝❦s ❛t ❤✐❣❤ ♣r✐❝ ❡s✳
❋ r♦♠ t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ r✉♥s ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ t❡st❡❞ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ♦✛❡r ❛ ❢❡✇ q✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❡ ❤✐♥ts
❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❜r✐♥❣ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡✿
✶✳ ❈❡t❡r✐s ♣❛r✐❜✉s✱ t❤❡ ❧♦✇❡r t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝❡ t❤❡ ♠♦r❡ ❝❤❛♥❝❡s ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ ❢♦r ❜✉❜❜❧❡s
✭t❤✐s ✐s ❞✉❡ t♦ t❤❡ r❡❧❛t✐✈❡ ❜✉②✐♥❣ ♣♦✇❡r ♦❢ ❝❤❛rt✐st ✲ ❧♦✇❡r ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ❤❡❧♣
❝❤❛rt✐sts ❛❝q✉✐r❡ ♠♦r❡ st♦❝❦s✮

✻✳✹✳ ❇✉❜❜❧❡s✿ ❤♦ ✇ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ❣r♦ ✇ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✶✹✺
✷✳ ❈❡t❡r✐s ♣❛r✐❜✉s✱ t❤❡ ❧❡ss t❤❡ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ tr❛❞❛❜❧❡ st♦ ❝ ❦s t❤❡ ♠♦r❡ t❤❡ ❝ ❤❛♥❝❡s
♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ✭❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❢❡✇ ❡r st♦ ❝ ❦s t♦ ❜✉②✮
✸✳ ❈❡t❡r✐s ♣❛r✐❜✉s✱ t❤❡ ❝ ❤❡❛♣ ❡r t❤❡ ♠♦♥❡② ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❢♦r st♦ ❝ ❦ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡
♠♦r❡ ❝ ❤❛♥❝❡s ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♦❢ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡✳
✹✳ ❈❡t❡r✐s ♣❛r✐❜✉s✱ t❤❡ ♠♦r❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭♦r ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ② ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡rs✮ ❛r❡ t❤❡
♠♦r❡ ❝ ❤❛♥❝❡s ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❢♦r ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ✭❢❡✇ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st ✐♠♣❧② ❧♦ ✇ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t ② ❛♥❞
❢❡✇ ❝♦✉♥ t❡r♣❛rt✐❡s ❢♦r tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❛t ❤✐❣❤ ♣r✐❝❡s✮✳
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❛ss❡t ❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦ ❜ ❡ ✉♥❞❡r♣r✐❝❡❞ ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡❞ ❛
✧r❡✈ ❡rs❡✧ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ✉♥❞❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡
❝❛♥ ❢❛❧❧ ✇ ❛ ② ❜ ❡❧♦ ✇ ✐ts ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ s✉❝ ❤ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✷
✇❤❡r❡ ❛t t❤❡ ❜ ❡❣✐♥♥✐♥❣✱ t✐♠❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ✷✵ ❛♥❞ ✺✵✱ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢❛❧❧s ❜ ❡❧♦ ✇ ✐ts ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝
✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ t❤✐s ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ♣ ❡rs✐sts✳
❚❤❡ tr❛❞❡❞ ❛ss❡t r❡sts ✉♥❞❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs s✐♠♣❧② ❞♦
♥♦t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s✉✣❝✐❡♥ t ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣ ♦ ✇ ❡r t♦ ♠♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ t♦ ✐ts ❝♦rr❡❝t ❧❡✈ ❡❧✳ ❲ ❡ ❝❛♥✱ ✐♥
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✸ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❂✷✵ ❛♥❞ t❂✺✵✱ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❛t ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❜✉② ❛s ♠❛♥ ②
✉♥❞❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞ ❛ss❡ts ❛s t❤❡② ❝❛♥ ✭s✐♥❝❡ ✐t ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❜ ♦✉❣❤ t ❛t ❛ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t✮✳
❯♥❢♦rt✉♥❛t❡❧② t❤❡s❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❡①❤❛✉st t❤❡✐r ❝❛s❤ r❡s❡r✈ ❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡
✐s ❛❢t❡r✇ ❛r❞s ❝♦♥ tr♦❧❧❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ✉♥✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❆❧t❤♦✉❣❤ t❤❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r
♦❢ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✐s s②♠♠❡tr✐❝ ✐♥ ❜ ♦t❤ ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s ✭❝ ❤❛rt✐sts
✇✐❧❧ s❡❧❧ ✐❢ t❤❡② ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ✇✐❧❧ ❣♦ ❞♦ ✇♥ ❛s ♠ ✉❝ ❤ ❛s t❤❡② ✇✐❧❧ ❜✉② ✐❢ t❤❡② ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡
♣r✐❝❡s ✇✐❧❧ ❣♦ ✉♣✮✳ ❙✉❝ ❤ ✧ r❡✈ ❡rs❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ✧ ❞♦ ♥♦t ❛♣♣ ❡❛r ♦r ❛r❡ ✈ ❡r② ❧✐♠✐t❡❞
✐♥ t❤❡✐r ❛♠♣❧✐t✉❞❡ ✭t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡
♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡✮✳ ❚❤✐s ✐s ❞✉❡ t♦ ❛♥ ❛s②♠♠❡tr② t❤❛t ❛r✐s❡s ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♦ ✇♥❡rs❤✐♣ ♦❢ t❤❡
♠❛ ❥♦r✐t ② ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts✱ ❞✉r✐♥❣ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡✳ ș♥ ❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ✭r✐s✐♥❣✮ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ❛ss❡ts
♠♦ ✈ ❡ ❢r♦♠ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭t❤❛t s❡❧❧ t❤❡ ♦ ✈ ❡r♣r✐❝❡❞ ❛ss❡t✮ t♦ ✇ ❛r❞s t❤❡ ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦s
♦❢ ✉♥✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❆❢t❡r ❛ s✉✣❝✐❡♥ t r✐s❡ ✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡s✱ t❤❡ ❜✉❧❦ ♦❢ t❤❡ tr❛❞❛❜❧❡
❛ss❡ts ❛r❡ ❤❡❧❞ ❜ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❛t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♥♦t❤✐♥❣ t♦ ❞♦ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
✭s✉❝ ❤ ❛ss❡t tr❛♥s❢❡r ❛❧s♦ ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥s ✐♥ r❡❛❧✲❡st❛t❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ✇❤❡r❡ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t♦rs ❡♥❞ ✉♣
♦ ✇♥✐♥❣ ♠♦st ♦❢ t❤❡ ❧❛♥❞ ❛♥❞ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣s✮✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡ t♦ ♠♦ ✈ ❡
❛♥❞ r✐s❡ ✭t❤❡ ♦♥❧② ❧✐♠✐t ❜ ❡✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❝❛s❤ ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❝♦✉♥ t❡r♣❛rt✐❡s✮✳ ❉✉r✐♥❣
t❤❡ ♦♣♣ ♦s✐t❡ ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛✱ ✇❤❡♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ❢♦r❝❡❞ ❞♦ ✇♥ ✭❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ✐s
✉♥❞❡r♣r✐❝❡❞✮ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❜✉② ♠♦r❡ ❛♥❞ ♠♦r❡ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ t❤❡
✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❡✈ ❡♥ t✉❛❧❧② ❜✉② ❛ss❡ts ✭❛t ❛ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t✮ ✇✐t❤ ❛❧❧ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ❝❛s❤✳
❲❤❡♥ t❤❡ ❜✉❧❦ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡ts ✐s ✐♥ t❤❡ ❤❛♥❞s ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❡ ♦♥❧② ♥❡✇
♣r✐❝❡s ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ s❡t ❜ ② t❤❡s❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✲ ♦❢ ❝♦✉rs❡✱ ❛t ❧❡✈ ❡❧s ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡❞ ❜ ②
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳ ș♥ s✉❝ ❤ ♠♦♠❡♥ ts t❤❡ ❣r♦✉♣ ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❛t ❤♦❧❞s ♠♦st ❛ss❡ts
✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✭✐♥ ♦♣♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤❡r❡ t❤❡ ❜✉❧❦ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ✇ ❛s ❤❡❧❞
✐♥ ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦s ♦❢ ✉♥✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✮✳ ❚❤✐s ❛s②♠♠❡tr② ✐♥ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♦ ✇♥❡rs❤✐♣✱ ✇❤❡♥
✉♥❞❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs st❡♣ ✐♥ ❛♥❞ ✇❤❡♥ ♦ ✈ ❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs st❡♣✲
♦✉t✱ ✐s ✇❤ ② ❛ r❡✈ ❡rs❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ s♠❛❧❧❡r ✐♥ ❛♠♣❧✐t✉❞❡ ✭t❤❛♥ ❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ♣r✐❝❡
❜✉❜❜❧❡✮✳

✶✹✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
0 50 100 150 20016 18 20 22 24 26Fundamental and Market price
TimePricesFundamental Value
Market Price
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✷✿ ❊①❛♠♣❧❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ r❡s✉❧ts ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐t❤ ✸✶✪ ❝❤❛rt✐st ✭s❡❡ t❛❜❧❡
✻✳✶✼ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✮
0 50 100 150 2000 100 200 300 400 500 600 700Daily average cash holdings per investor type
TimeAverage cashInformed
Chartist
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✸✿ ❆ ✈❡r❛❣❡ ❝❛s❤ ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ tr❛❞❡r t②♣❡ ✐♥s✐❞❡ t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥
❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ❢r♦♠ ✻✳✸✷ ✲ ✇✐t❤ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢♦✉♥❞ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✼

✻✳✺✳ ❙✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✶✹✼
❚❤❡ ❡①t❡♥t ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ t♦t❛❧ ✇❡❛❧t❤ ♦❢ t❤❡
❝❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs ✭♦r t❤❡ t②♣❡✭s✮ ♦❢ tr❛❞❡rs t❤❛t ❝♦♥tr♦❧ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✉r✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡✮
❛♥❞ ♦♥ t❤❡✐r ❛❣❣r❡ss✐✈❡♥❡ss ✭❤♦✇ ♠✉❝❤ ❞♦ t❤❡② ✇❛♥t t♦ ❣❡t ❛s r❡t✉r♥s✮✳ ș❢ t❤❡
❝❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs ❡①♣❡❝t ❤✐❣❤❡r r❡t✉r♥s✱ ♦r ♠♦r❡ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② r❡t✉r♥s t❤❡♥ t❤❡② ✇✐❧❧ ❜✐❞
✉♣ ♦r ❞♦✇♥ ♣r✐❝❡s ✐♥ ❛ ❢❛st❡r ✇❛② ✱ ❧✐❦❡ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✹ ✳
❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❢r♦♠ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✹ ❡①❤✐❜✐t ♣r✐❝❡s t❤❛t r✐s❡ ✉♣ t♦
✶✼ t✐♠❡s ❢r♦♠ t❤❡✐r ♦r✐❣✐♥❛❧ ❧❡✈❡❧✳ ❚❤❡ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ s✉❝❤ ❛ ❣r♦✇t❤ ✐s ❧✐♠✐t❡❞ ❜② ❝❛s❤
♦❢ t❤❡ ❝❤❛rt✐st ❛s ✇❡❧❧ ❛s ❜② t❤❡ t♦t❛❧ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ tr❛❞❛❜❧❡ ❛ss❡ts✳ ❲✐t❤ s✉✣❝✐❡♥t
s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛ q✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❡ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥s❤✐♣ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❢♦✉♥❞ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❛♠♣❧✐t✉❞❡ ❛♥❞
❞✉r❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠✐❝r♦✲❧❡✈❡❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✳
ș♥ t❤✐s ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ s❤♦✇❡❞ ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❝♦♠♣♦s✐t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❝❛✉s❡ ♣r✐❝❡
❜✉❜❜❧❡s✱ ♥❛♠❡❧② ✉s✐♥❣ ❝❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs ❛♥❞ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ șt ✐s ✐♠✲
♣♦rt❛♥t t♦ ✉♥❞❡r❧✐♥❡ t❤❛t s✉❝❤ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡❞ ❜② ❛♥② t②♣❡ ♦❢ ✉♥✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞
tr❛❞❡rs✳ ③r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❝❛♥ ♦❝❝✉r ❛s ❧♦♥❣ ❛s s✉❝❤ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ♣♦s✐t✐✈❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r✐❝❡
❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❤❛✈❡ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡s♦✉r❝❡s t♦ ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡ ❛♥❞ s✉st❛✐♥ tr❛❞✐♥❣
❛t ❤✐❣❤ ♣r✐❝❡s✳
❆ ♣♦ss✐❜❧❡ ❝r✐t✐❝ t♦ t❤❡s❡ r❡s✉❧ts ❝♦♥s✐sts ♦❢ t❤❡ ❧❛❝❦ ♦❢ s❤♦rt✲s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t✐❡s✳
❙❤♦rt✲s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝♦✉❧❞ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✇✐t❤ ✧❜♦rr♦✇❡❞✧
❛ss❡ts ✐♥ ❛♥ ❛tt❡♠♣t t♦ ❞r✐✈❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❞♦✇♥ t♦ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ❧❡✈❡❧s✳ ❚❤✐s ♦♣t✐♦♥ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s
t❤❛t ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❜♦rr♦✇ ♠♦♥❡② ✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✐t ✇♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ❢❛✐r t♦ s❛② t❤❛t ❡✈❡♥
❝❤❛rt✐st ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝♦✉❧❞ ❜♦rr♦✇✳ ❚❤✉s s❤♦rt✲s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❝♦✉❧❞ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡ ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t② ♦❢
♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ♦♥❧② ✐❢ ❝❤❛rt✐st ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t ❜❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❜♦rr♦✇ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❡
s♣❡❝✉❧❛t✐♥❣✳ ❋ ♦r t❤✐s r❡❛s♦♥✱ ♦❢ s❤♦rt✲s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❡✛❡❝t ❜❡✐♥❣ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡❞ ❜② ✐♥✈❡st♦r
❝r❡❞✐ts✱ ✇❡ ❞❡❝✐❞❡❞ ♥♦t t♦ ❛❧❧♦✇ s✉❝❤ ❜♦rr♦✇✐♥❣ ❝❛♣❛❝✐t✐❡s✳ ❲ ❡ ❜❡❧✐❡✈❡ t❤❛t ✇✐t❤ ♦r
✇✐t❤♦✉t ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ❜♦rr♦✇✐♥❣ ♦♣♣♦rt✉♥✐t✐❡s ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❝❛♥ ❛♣♣❡❛r ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ s❛♠❡
❢r❡q✉❡♥❝② ✳ ❋ r♦♠ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t q✉❛❧✐t② ♣♦✐♥t ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇ ✐t ✐s✱ ♦❢ ❝♦✉rs❡✱ ❜❡tt❡r t♦ ❛❧❧♦✇ ♦♥❧②
s❤♦rt✲s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❜❧♦❝❦ ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ♦❢ ❜✉②✐♥❣ st♦❝❦s ✇✐t❤ ❝r❡❞✐t✳
✻✳✺ ❙✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ts
ș♥ t❤✐s ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✇❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❛♥s✇❡r t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ★✷✱ ★✸ ❛♥❞ ★✻✳ ❚❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ✐ss✉❡
✇❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐❣❛t❡ ❝♦♥❝❡r♥s t❤❡ s✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦rs ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t✳
❆❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t❤❡♦r② ✱ ❛s ❞✐s❝✉ss❡❞ ✐♥ ❞❡t❛✐❧ ✐♥ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✶✳✸✱ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇❤✐❝❤
❛r❡ ♥♦t r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♦r ♥♦t ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ❝❛♥♥♦t s✉r✈✐✈❡ ✐♥ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡②
✇✐❧❧ ♠❛❦❡ ♠✐st❛❦❡s ❛♥❞ ❧♦s❡ t❤❡✐r ♠♦♥❡② t♦ ❜❡tt❡r ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳
❚ ♦ ❡st❛❜❧✐s❤ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐♥✈❡st♦r t②♣❡s ✇✐❧❧ s✉r✈✐✈❡ ❛♥❞ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✇✐❧❧ ♥♦t ✐t ✐s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t
t♦ ❝❧❡❛r❧② ❞❡✜♥❡ ❤♦✇ ✇❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❥✉❞❣❡ s✉r✈✐✈♦rs❤✐♣✳ ș♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t t❤❛t ❡①❤✐❜✐ts ♣r✐❝❡
❜✉❜❜❧❡s✱ ❛ss❡t ❤♦❧❞❡rs ✇✐❧❧ s❤♦✇ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥t r❡t✉r♥s ❜❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ✐s ♣❡❛❦✐♥❣
❜✉t ✇♦✉❧❞ ❤❛✈❡ ❛❧♠♦st ③❡r♦ r❡t✉r♥s ✭♦r ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❡✮ ♦♥❝❡ t❤❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ❜✉rsts✳ ș❢ ✇❡
❝♦♠♣❛r❡ ✇❡❛❧t❤ r❡t✉r♥s ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ✐♥✈❡st♦r t②♣❡s ✇❡ ✇✐❧❧ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t
r❡s✉❧ts ❜❡❢♦r❡✱ ❞✉r✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❛❢t❡r ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡✳ ▼♦r❡♦✈❡r ✐t ✐s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t t♦ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r

✶✹✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
0 100 200 300 400 500 60050 100 150 200 250 300 350
TimePricesFundamental Value
Market Price
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✹✿ ❊①❛♠♣❧❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❛♥❞ ❝r❛s❤ ❢r♦♠ ❛ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❧✐❦❡ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✼ ✱ ❜✉t ❝❤❛♥❣✐♥❣ µC= 8% ❛♥❞ ♠❡♠♦r② ❧❡♥❣t❤ ♦❢ ✷
✭✐♥st❡❛❞ ♦❢ µC= 7% ❛♥❞ ♠❡♠♦r② ❧❡♥❣t❤ ♦❢ ✸✮
t❤❡ ♦♣❡♥♥❡ss ♦❢ t❤❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ♦❢ ♦✉r ▲❯▼❆ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t
✐s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r t♦ ❜❡ ❝❧♦s❡❞ s✐♥❝❡ ♥♦ ♥❡✇ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❡♥t❡r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❞✉r✐♥❣ ❛ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥
r✉♥✳ ❚❤✐s ✐s ♥♦t t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ❢♦r ❛ r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇❤❡r❡ ♥❡✇ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛rr✐✈❡
❝♦♥st❛♥t❧② ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ș♥ ♦✉r t❡sts ✇❡ ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t ✐❢ ♥❡✇ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❡♥t❡r t❤❡
♠❛r❦❡t t❤❡② ❞♦ ♥♦t ❝❤❛♥❣❡ t❤❡ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ ♣r♦♣♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t str❛t❡❣✐❡s✳
❚❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ✇❡ ✇❛♥t t♦ ❛♥s✇❡r ✭✷✱ ✸ ❛♥❞ ✻✮ ❛❧❧ r❡✈♦❧✈❡ ❛r♦✉♥❞ ❛ ❝❡♥✲
tr❛❧ ♣♦✐♥t✿ ❞♦ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭t❤❛t ✇❛♥t t♦ ❦❡❡♣ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❧♦s❡
t♦ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✮ ❡✈❡♥t✉❛❧❧② ❞r✐✈❡ ♦✉t ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛❧❧ ♦t❤❡r t②♣❡s ♦❢
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧✱ s♣❡❝✉❧❛t♦rs✱ ❡t❝✮❄ ❆♣♣❛r❡♥t❧② ✱ t❤❡ ♣r♦♣♦s❛❧ ♦❢ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐st ▼✐❧✲
t♦♥ ❋ r✐❡❞♠❛♥✱ ✐♥ ✭ ❋ r✐❡❞♠❛♥ ✱ ✶✾✺✸ ✮✱ ✐s st✐❧❧ tr✉❡ ❢♦r ♠♦st r❡s❡❛r❝❤❡rs✿ ✧ P❡ ♦♣❧❡ ✇❤♦
❛r ❣✉❡ t❤❛t s♣ ❡ ❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❣❡♥❡r ❛❧ ❧② ❞❡st❛❜✐❧✐③✐♥❣ s❡❧❞♦♠ r ❡ ❛❧✐③❡ t❤❛t t❤✐s ✐s ❧❛r ❣❡❧②
❡ q✉✐✈❛❧❡♥t t♦ s❛②✐♥❣ t❤❛t s♣ ❡ ❝✉❧❛t♦rs ❧♦s❡ ♠♦♥❡②✱ s✐♥❝ ❡ s♣ ❡ ❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❝ ❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❞❡st❛❜✐✲
❧✐③✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❣❡♥❡r ❛❧ ♦♥❧② ✐❢ s♣ ❡ ❝✉❧❛t♦rs ♦♥ t❤❡ ❛✈❡r ❛❣❡ s❡❧ ❧ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ ❝✉rr ❡♥❝② ✐s ❧♦✇ ✐♥
♣r✐❝ ❡ ❛♥❞ ❜✉② ✇❤❡♥ ✐t ✐s ❤✐❣❤ ✳✧ ❚❤❡ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞✐♥❣ ♦❢ t❤✐s st❛t❡♠❡♥t ✐s
t❤❛t s♣❡❝✉❧❛t♦rs ❣❛✐♥ ✇❡❛❧t❤ ❜② ❞♦✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡①❛❝t ♦♣♣♦s✐t❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥✿ ❜✉②✐♥❣ ❧♦✇ ❛♥❞
s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❤✐❣❤ ✭✇❤❡r❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐s t❤❡ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡✮✳ ▼♦r❡♦✈❡r✱ t❤❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧
❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ✭❛s ❢♦r♠❛❧✐③❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡ts t❤❡♦r②✮ ✐s t❤❛t ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t❤❛t ❞♦
♥♦t s♣❡❝✉❧❛t❡ ✐♥ s✉❝❤ ❛ ✇❛② ✱ ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ ✐♥ tr②✐♥❣ t♦ r❡❞✐r❡❝t ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s t♦✇❛r❞s
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✱ ✇✐❧❧ ❡✈❡♥t✉❛❧❧② ❧♦♦s❡ ♠♦♥❡② ✳
❲ ❡ ❝♦♥tr✐❜✉t❡ t♦ t❤✐s ❞✐❛❧♦❣✉❡ ♦❢ ✐❞❡❛s ❜② s❛②✐♥❣ t❤❛t ❛ ♥♦♥✲❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ s♣❡❝✉✲

✻✳✺✳ ❙✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✶✹✾
❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ❛❣❡♥ t ❝❛♥✱ ✐♥ ♦♣♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ t♦ ❤❛ ✈✐♥❣ ❛ ❧♦ ♦s✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣② ✭❜✉②✐♥❣ ❤✐❣❤ ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧✐♥❣
❧♦ ✇✮✱ ♠❛♥✐❢❡st t ✇ ♦ ♦t❤❡r ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ str❛t❡❣✐❡s✿
✶✳ ✭❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧✮ ❇✉② ❧♦ ✇ ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧ ❤✐❣❤ ✲ ❛ ✧st❛❜✐❧✐③✐♥❣✧ str❛t❡❣② t❤❛t ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡s r❡t✉r♥s
❢♦r t❤❡ r✐s❦ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ♥♦t r❡t✉r♥✐♥❣ ❢❛st t♦ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s✳
✷✳ ❇✉② ❤✐❣❤ ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧ ❤✐❣❤❡r ✲ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ♣r♦✜t
✸✳ ❙❡❧❧ ❧♦ ✇ ❛♥❞ ❜✉② ❧♦ ✇ ❡r ✲ r❡✈ ❡rs❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ♣r♦✜t
✹✳ ❈♦♠ ❜✐♥✐♥❣ ✶✮✱ ✷✮ ❛♥❞ ✸✮
❲ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ♥♦ ✇ s❤♦ ✇ t❤❛t str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✷✮ ❛♥❞ ✸✮ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
✉s✐♥❣ s✉❝ ❤ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❝❛♥ ♣ ❡rs✐st ❛♥❞ ✢♦✉r✐s❤ ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ r✐❣❤ t
❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ❛❝ ❤✐❡✈ ❡❞✳ ❚ ♦ ❝❧❡❛r❧② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t✐❛t❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡s❡ t❤r❡❡ ❛❜str❛❝t tr❛❞✐♥❣
str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♠❛❞❡ ❛ ❣r❛♣❤✐❝ ✈✐s✐❜❧❡ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✺ ✳
❙tr❛t❡❣② ✷✮ ❛♥❞ ✸✮ ❛r❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❛rs❡♥❛❧ ♦❢ ♦✉r ❝ ❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs✳ ❙tr❛t❡❣② ✷✮
❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❡❞ ❛s ❛ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ tr❡♥❞ ❛♠♣❧✐✜❡r ❛♥❞ str❛t❡❣② ✸✮ ❛s ❛ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈ ❡ tr❡♥❞
❛♠♣❧✐✜❡r✳ ❲ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ♥♦ ✇ r✉♥ ❛ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥s✐❞❡ ♦✉r ▲❯▼❆ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ t♦ ♦❧
❛♥❞ ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ t ✇ ❡❛❧t❤✳
❲ ❡ ✜rst ❧♦ ♦❦ ❛t ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇❤❡r❡ ❛❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✉s❡ str❛t❡❣② ✶✮✳ ❙✉❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❞✐✛❡r ♦♥❧② ❜ ② t❤❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ❜✐❛s❡s✳ ❲ ❡ ❛r❡ ✐♥ t❡r❡st❡❞ t♦ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ✐❢ t❤❡s❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
♠❛❦ ❡ ♠♦r❡ ♠♦♥❡② ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡② ❛r❡ ❧❡ss ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♦r ♥♦t✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ✇ ❡ ✇ ❛♥ t t♦ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡
tr❛♥s❢❡r ♦❢ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡ ❛ss❡ts ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❣r♦ ✇t❤✳ ș♥ t❤❡
✜rst t❡st ✇ ❡ ❝♦♠♣ ❡t❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛❣❛✐♥st ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳
❲ ❡ r✉♥ ✺✵ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❡st ✶✵ ❛✮ ✭✇❤❡r❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡✮ ❛♥❞ ✇ ❡
❧♦ ♦❦ ❛t t❤❡ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❙❤❛r♣ ❡ r❛t✐♦ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t str❛t❡❣② ♦❢ ❡❛❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✲
♠❡♥ t t ②♣ ❡✳ ▼❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ♦❢t❡♥ ♠♦ ✈ ❡❞ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡
♦❢ t❤❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✻ ✮✳ ș♥ t✉✐t✐✈ ❡❧② t❤❡② s❤♦✉❧❞ s♦♠❡✲
t✐♠❡s ❜ ❡ ♠♦ ✈ ❡❞ ✉♥❞❡r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✭✐❢ t❤❡ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡s ❝r❡❛t❡s ❛
♣ ❡ss✐♠✐st✐❝ ♣ ♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥✮✳ ❚❤✐s ✉♥❞❡r♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡✱ ❡✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ ✐♥ ♠✐✲
♥♦r✐t ② ✱ t❤❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❛❜s♦r❜ ♠♦r❡ st♦ ❝ ❦s ❛t ❞❡❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡s
✲ t❤ ✉s st♦♣♣✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r✈ ❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥✳ ❆s ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✻ ✱ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ♦ ✈ ❡r♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ♣ ❡rs✐sts ✭tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✐s ❞♦♥❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡
❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✮✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs s❡❧❧ t❤❡✐r ♦ ✈ ❡r♣r✐❝❡❞ ❛ss❡ts
❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ❞r✐✈ ❡♥ ♦✉t ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛♥❞ ❤♦❧❞ ♦♥❧② ❝❛s❤ ✭s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✼ ✮✳ ❊✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ t❤❡
❙❤❛r♣ ❡ r❛t✐♦s ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✵ ❛r❡ s✐♠✐❧❛r ✭✵✪✮ t❤✐s ✐s ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ ❣r♦ ✇t❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t
✇ ❛s ✵✪✳ ❚❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ✐s t❤❛t ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡② ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥ t❧② ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ ✇✐❧❧ ❝❛♣t✉r❡ t❤❡ ❣r♦ ✇t❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ✭❛♥❞ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
✇✐❧❧ ❡①✐t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✮✳
❲ ❡ ♠❛❦ ❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ✐♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝❡ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥
✭rmin ✮✱ ❢♦r ❛❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ✶✪ ❛♥❞ ✶✵✪✳ ❆❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs tr② t♦ s❡❧❧✴❜✉② t❤❡ ❛ss❡t

✶✺✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
Fundamental valueStrategy 1 Strategy 2 Strategy 3
Market priceSell
BuyBuySell
BuySell
Upwards trend
creationDownards trend
creationNo trend
Pt ~ Ft + eps
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✺✿ Pr❡s❡♥t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❜str❛❝t tr❛❞✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣✐❡s
❚ ❡st ✶✵ ❛
✭❜✮
P ❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❱ ❛❧✉❡ ❊①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥
µV ✵✳✵✪ ◆♦ ❞❛✐❧② ❣r♦✇t❤ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡
σV ✶✪ ✶✪ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥
◆ ✺✵✵ ◆✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❛②s
◆r ❛❣❡♥ts ✺✵✵ ✸✵✪ ✭✼✵✪✮ ●❖❉ ✭♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥✲
❢♦r♠❡❞✮ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✼✵✪ ✭✸✵✪✮ ❇✐❛s❡❞
✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
ap [0.5,1.5] ❇✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ❛ ♣❛✲
r❛♠❡t❡r ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♠♣❧✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥
r❛♥❞♦♠❧② ❝❤♦s❡♥ ❢♦r t❤✐s ✐♥t❡r✈ ❛❧
bp [−1,1] ❇✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧✱ ♦♥ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡✱
♥♦t s❦❡✇ t❤❡✐r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❲ ❡❛❧t❤ ❊❛❝❤ ✐♥✈❡st♦r st❛rt ✇✐t❤ ✶✵✵✵ ✐♥ ❝❛s❤
❛♥❞ ✶✵ st♦❝❦s
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✾✿ ❙✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✱ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❛♥❞ ♥♦t ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✭✇❤✐❝❤ ❛r❡
❞♦♠✐♥❛♥t✮

✻✳✺✳ ❙✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✶✺✶
0 100 200 300 400 50018 20 22 24 26 28
TimePricesFundamental Value
Market Price
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✻✿ ▼❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥t ✲ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✶✵ ❛✮ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✾
0 100 200 300 400 5001200 1220 1240 1260 1280
TimeAverage wealth of tradersInformed
GOD
Buy_and_Hold
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✼✿ ❆ ✈❡r❛❣❡ ✇❡❛❧t❤ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♣❡r ✐♥✈❡st♦r t②♣❡ ✲ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✶✵
❛✮ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✾

✶✺✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
✇✐t❤ ❛ ♣r❡♠✐✉♠✴❞✐s❝♦✉♥t ♦✈❡r t❤❡✐r ♣❡r❝❡✐✈❡❞ ❝♦rr❡❝t ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❚❤✐s ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡s ❛ ❞✐s✲
❝r❡t❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥t✻✱ s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✽ ✱ s✐♥❝❡ ❛❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇❛✐t ❢♦r t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡ t♦ ♠♦✈❡ s✉✣❝✐❡♥t❧② ❛✇❛② ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡✳ ❘❡❧❛t✐✈❡ t♦ t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s t❡st
❛ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❛r✐s❡s ✐♥ t❤❡ ♦✇♥❡rs❤✐♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ st♦❝❦s✳ ❊✈❡♥ ✐❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ✐s ♦♥ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡
♦✈❡r♣r✐❝❡❞ t❤❡ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇♦♥✬t ❜❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ s❡❧❧ ❛❧❧ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r st♦❝❦s
❜❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣r❡♠✐✉♠ t❤❡② ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ✐s ✐♥❝♦♠♣❛t✐❜❧❡ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥t t❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❡①♣❡❝t✱ s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✾ ✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧
❤♦❧❞ s♦♠❡ ❛ss❡ts ❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦ ❝❛♣t✉r❡✱ ✐♥ ♣❛rt✱ t❤❡ r❡t✉r♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ❛ss❡t✳ ș❢
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♦✈❡r♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ✇♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ♣r❡♠✐✉♠ ♣❧✉s t❤❡ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥t ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞
❛❧❧ st♦❝❦s ✇♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ tr❛♥s❢❡rr❡❞ t♦ t❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳
ș♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✵ ✇❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❛t ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❤❛✈❡s s✐♠✐❧❛r ❙❤❛r♣❡ r❛t✐♦s✳ șt ✐s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t
t♦ ✉♥❞❡r❧✐♥❣ t❤❛t t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ t❤r❡❡ ❞✐st✐♥❝t s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥s✿
• ✇✐t❤♦✉t ♣♦s✐t✐✈❡ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ ✭ rmin ✮✿ ❇✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ♦✇♥ ♠♦st
st♦❝❦s ❛♥❞ ❝❛♣t✉r❡ t❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ❛ss❡t✬s ❣r♦✇t❤
• ✇✐t❤ ♣♦s✐t✐✈❡ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ ✭ rmin ✮✿
✕ ș❢ t❤❡ ♦✈❡r♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ✐s ❤✐❣❤ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ♦✇♥ ♠♦st st♦❝❦s
✕ ș❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♦✈❡r♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ✐s ♥♦t ❤✐❣❤ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
✇✐❧❧ ❤♦❧❞ s♦♠❡ st♦❝❦s ✭❜❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡② ✇♦♥✬t ❜❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ s❡❧❧ t❤❡♠✮
❘ ❡ ❣❛r ❞ ❧❡ss ♦❢ t❤❡ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥ ✭ rmin>0 ♦r ♥♦t✮ t❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✱ ❜ ❡ ❝ ❛✉s❡ t❤❡②
❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t✱ ❛r ❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❝ ❛♣t✉r ❡ ♠♦st ♦❢ t❤❡ st♦ ❝❦✬s r ❡t✉r♥s✳ ❊✈❡♥ ✐❢ t❤❡②
❛r ❡ ❜ ❡tt❡r ✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ t❤❡ ●❖❉ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r ❡ ♥♦t ❛❜❧❡ t♦ t❛❦❡ ❛❞✈❛♥t❛❣❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞
✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳
❲ ❡ ❧♦♦❦ ♥♦✇ ❛t ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇❤❡r❡ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✭●❖❉✮ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡✳
❲ ❡ r❡r✉♥ ✺✵ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❢♦r ❚ ❡st ✶✵ ❜ ✭✇❤❡r❡ ✼✵✪ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞✮
❛♥❞ ❞✐s♣❧❛② t❤❡ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ❙❤❛r♣❡ r❛t✐♦s ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✶ ❜❡❧♦✇✳
❚❤✐s ♠❛r❦❡t ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦❧❧♦✇s t❤❡ ❢✉♥✲
❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✭✇✐t❤ ❛♥ ❡rr♦r ✇✐t❤ ✵ ♠❡❛♥✮✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✶ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ♦❜s❡r✈❡
t❤❡ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡✱ ♦❢ ♥✉❧❧ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ ❡①✲
♣❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s✱ ✐s ✈❡r② ❝❧♦s❡ t♦ ✵✳ ❚❤✐s ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✐s ❛ss✉r❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ♠❛ss✐✈❡ ♣r❡s❡♥❝❡
♦❢ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇❤✐❝❤ ❤❛✈❡ ♥✉❧❧ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s ✭ rmin ❂✵✮✳
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥s ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❛❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t❛❦❡ ♣❧❛❝❡ ❛t t❤❡ ♥❡✇❧② ❢♦r♠❡❞ ♠❛r❦❡t
♣r✐❝❡ t❤❛♥ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t❛❦❡ ❛❞✈ ❛♥t❛❣❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧❧② ❝♦rr❡❝t ♠❛r❦❡t
♣r✐❝❡✱ ❡✈❡♥ ✐❢ s♦♠❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❜❡❧✐❡❢s✳ ❲ ❡ s❡❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ t❛❜❧❡ ❛❜♦✈❡ t❤❛t
t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦r✬s ❙❤❛r♣❡ r❛t✐♦✬s ❛r❡ ♥♦t st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧❧② s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥t ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t t❤❛♥ ✵✳ ❚❤✐s
✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t tr❛♥s❢❡r ♦❢ ✇❡❛❧t❤ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ t✇♦ t②♣❡s ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✐s ♥♦t ❤❛♣♣❡♥✐♥❣
✭♦r ✐t ✐s ❛t ❛♥ ❡①tr❡♠❡❧② s❧♦✇ ♣❛❝❡✮✳ ș❢ ✇❡ r✉♥ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❡ ❛
✻❇② ❞✐s❝r❡t❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ♠♦ ✈ ❡♠❡♥ t ✇ ❡ ♠❡❛♥ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s ✇✐t❤ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ♦❢ ③❡r♦ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡s ✭❞✉❡
t♦ ❧❛❝ ❦ ♦❢ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥s✮✳

✻✳✺✳ ❙✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✶✺✸
0 100 200 300 400 50012 14 16 18 20 22 24
TimePricesFundamental Value
Market Price
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✽✿ ▼❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥t ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇❤❡r❡ ❛❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ♣♦s✐t✐✈❡
♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ r❡q✉✐r❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s ✲ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✶✵ ❛✮ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✾ ❛♥❞rmin>0
0 100 200 300 400 5008.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0
TimeAverage number of stocksInformed
GOD
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✸✾✿ ❊✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♦✇♥❡rs❤✐♣ ♦❢ st♦❝❦s ✲ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✶✵ ❛✮ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡
✻✳✶✾ ❛♥❞ ❛❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ♣♦s✐t✐✈❡ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ r❡q✉✐r❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s✱ rmin>0

✶✺✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r ✺✵
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❢♦r ❚ ❡st ✶✵ ❛✮rmin ❂ ✵✪ ❚✲❙t❛t rmin ✐♥
✭✵✱✶✵]✪❚✲❙t❛t
▼❡❛♥ ❙❤❛r♣ ❡ r❛t✐♦ ❙ i ❢♦r
♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r
s✵ ✲✵✱✶✶✺✼✹✹✺✶ ✲✵✱✼✻✺✽✺✾✶✶
▼❡❛♥ ❙❤❛r♣ ❡ r❛t✐♦ ❙ b ❢♦r
❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✲✵✱✶✻✵✼✽✹✺✸ ✲✶✱✸✼✻✻✶✺✽✶ ✲✵✱✵✽✼✶✹✹✸✷ ✲✵✱✾✾✺✽✹✾✸✶
▼❡❛♥ ❙❤❛r♣ ❡ r❛t✐♦ ❙ b ❢♦r
❜✉② ✫ ❤♦❧❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✲✵✱✶✻✶✶✵✼✶ ✲✶✱✸✽✵✾✻✽✾✶ ✲✵✱✵✾✹✵✻✽✵✸ ✲✵✱✽✷✷✹✾✻✹
❆ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♣r✐❝❡✲✵✱✺✷✶✶✼✻✺✼ ✼✸✱✸✺✸✵✹✶✷ ✲✵✱✷✼✺✷✼✸✼✽ ✶✺✱✸✸✷✶✵✹✶
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✵✿ ❙❤❛r♣ ❡ r❛t✐♦s ❢♦r t❡st ✶✵ ❛✮ ✭❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡❞✮ ✇❤❡♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❛r❡ ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ rmin= 0%
❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r
✶✵✵ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❢♦r ❚ ❡st
✶✵ ❜✮rmin ❂✵✪ ❚✲❙t❛t rmin ✐♥
✭✵✱✶✵]✪❚✲❙t❛t
▼❡❛♥ ❙❤❛r♣ ❡ r❛t✐♦ ❙ i ❢♦r
♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♦r s✲✵✱✵✵✸✷✽✷✷✼ ✲✵✱✵✷✻✽✵✶✹✸ ✲✵✱✶✷✵✺✻✹✹✷ ✲✵✱✾✻✸✷✾✷✹✻
▼❡❛♥ ❙❤❛r♣ ❡ r❛t✐♦ ❙ b
❢♦r ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✵✱✵✹✾✶✺✶✷✼ ✵✱✹✹✸✽✺✼✽✻ ✲✵✱✶✷✶✸✻✾✷✻ ✲✵✱✾✻✾✶✹✹✾✼
▼❡❛♥ ❙❤❛r♣ ❡ r❛t✐♦ ❙ b
❢♦r ❜✉② ✫ ❤♦❧❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✵✱✵✹✽✻✷✽✺✽ ✵✱✻✵✾✾✵✼✽✸ ✲✵✱✶✶✾✶✽✻✻✸ ✲✵✱✾✺✷✽✾✾✻✺
❆ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ❜ ❡✲
t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❛♥❞
♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡105✲✵✱✵✵✷✶✹✷✺✹ ✲✷✱✷✹✵✵✹✻✸✽ ✲✵✱✷✵✵✺✵✺✵✺ ✲✶✵✱✶✶✵✽✼✼✼
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✶✿ ❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r t❡st ✶✵ ❜✮ ✲ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡

✻✳✺✳ ❙✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✶✺✺
♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥✱ t❤❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛❝t ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r✲
❦ ❡t ♦♥❧② ✇❤❡♥ ♣r✐❝❡s str❛ ② ❛ ✇ ❛ ② ❢r♦♠ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧s ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ r✐s❦ ♣r❡♠✐✉♠ ❧❡✈ ❡❧
t❤❡② ❡①♣ ❡❝t✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛❧s♦ ❡①♣ ❡❝t ❛ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ r❡t✉r♥ ✈ ❡r② ❢❡✇
tr❛❞✐♥❣ t❛❦ ❡s ♣❧❛❝❡s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ t ✇ ♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝❧❛ss❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✇✐❧❧ r❡st
❜✐❛s❡❞✳ ▲✐❦ ❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ t❡st ✻❛ ✭✇✐t❤ rmin>0 ✮ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ❡✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ t❤❡② ❛r❡ ✐♥ ❛
♠✐♥♦r✐t ② ✱ ❝♦♥ tr♦❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡✐t ② ✳
❚❤✐s ❢❛❝t ✐s ♣r♦ ✈ ❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥ t❧② ♥❡❣❛t✐✈ ❡ ♠❡❛♥ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✭✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ✲✵✳✷ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✶ ✮✳
❘ ❡s❡ ❛r ❝❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥ ★✷✿ ❈❛♥ ❛ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦r✭s✮ s✉r✈✐✈❡ ✐♥ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r✲
❦❡t❄
❆♥s✇ ❡r✿ ❨ ❡s✳ș❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝ ❡s ❛r ❡ ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥t❧② ✉♣✇❛r ❞ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ t❤❡♥ ❜ ❡tt❡r ✐♥✲
❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧ ❧ s❡❧ ❧ t❤❡ ♦✈❡r♣r✐❝ ❡ ❞ ❛ss❡t✳ ș❢ t❤❡✐r s❡❧ ❧✐♥❣ ❛❝t✐♦♥ ✐s ✉s❡❧❡ss✱ ❛♥❞
♣r✐❝ ❡s r ❡♠❛✐♥ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞✱ t❤❡♥ ❝ ♦♥tr ♦❧ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝ ❡s ✇✐❧ ❧ ❜ ❡ ♠❛✐♥t❛✐♥❡ ❞ ❜② ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥✲
✈❡st♦rs✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧ ❧ ❝ ♦♥t✐♥✉❡ tr ❛❞✐♥❣✱ ❛t ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ♣r✐❝ ❡s✱ ❛♥❞ ❝ ♦♥s❡ q✉❡♥t❧②
❝ ❛♣t✉r ❡ t❤❡ r ❡t✉r♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡✳ ș❢ ✇❡❧ ❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ s✉❢✲
✜❝✐❡♥t r ❡s♦✉r ❝ ❡s t❤❡② ❝ ❛♥ ♠❛✐♥t❛✐♥ ♣r✐❝ ❡s ❛t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ❧❡✈❡❧s✳ ❚❤✐s ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♠❛r❦❡t
♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❜ ❡♥❡✜ts ❡✈❡r②❜ ♦ ❞②✱ ❡✈❡♥ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ❚❤❡r ❡❢♦r ❡✱ t❤❡ tr ❛♥s❢❡r
♦❢ ✇❡ ❛❧t❤ ❢r ♦♠ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ t♦ ♥♦♥✲❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥ ♦r ✐t ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥s ✈❡r②
s❧♦✇ ❧②✳ ❇✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝ ❛♥ t❤❡r ❡❢♦r ❡ s✉r✈✐✈❡ ✐♥ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ▼♦r ❡ ♦✈❡r✱ ✐❢ ✇❡ ❝ ♦♥s✐❞❡r
t❤❛t t❤❡ ❝ ♦st ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❧❡ss t❤❡♥ t❤❛t ♦❢ ♣ ❡r❢❡ ❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ✇❡ s❛②
t❤❛t ❜ ❡tt❡r ✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧ ❧ ❧♦ ♦s❡ ♠♦r ❡ t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳
❆ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡❞ ❜ ② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✬❡✣❝✐❡♥ t✬✱ ❜ ② t❤❡ ❞❡✜♥✐✲
t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✭ ❋ ❛♠❛ ✱ ✶✾✼✵ ✮✳ ▲♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ❛❣❛✐♥ ❛t t❤✐s ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇ ❡ ❞r❛ ✇ t❤❡ ❛tt❡♥ t✐♦♥ t♦
❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ❛s♣ ❡❝t✿ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡❞ ❜ ② ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✐s
❡✣❝✐❡♥ t✳ ❚❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ♦❢ t❤✐s ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜ ❡♥❡✜ts ♥♦t ♦♥❧② t❤❡ ❛❢♦r❡♠❡♥ t✐♦♥❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❜✉t ✐t ❛❧s♦ s❡r✈ ❡s t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜✐❛s❡s ✭❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ ♣ ❡rs♦♥❛❧ ❢❛❧❧❛❝✐❡s ♦r
♦❢ t❤❡✐r ✉♥ ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣♥❡ss t♦ ♣❛ ② t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮✳ ❲ ❡ ❝❛♥ t❤❡♥
❛s❦ ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ q✉❡st✐♦♥✿ ❲❤ ② ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭●❖❉✮ ❜ ❡
✇✐❧❧✐♥❣ t♦ ♣❛ ② ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r t❤❡✐r ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡② ❞♦ ♥♦t ♦❜t❛✐♥ s✉♣ ❡✲
r✐♦r ❣❛✐♥s t❤❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ❧❡ss ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❄ șt ✐s ✐♥ t❡r❡st✐♥❣ t♦ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦✉t t❤❛t
s✉❝ ❤ ❛♥ ✐♥ t✉✐t✐♦♥ ✇ ❛s ❡①♣ ♦s❡❞ ✸✷ ② ❡❛rs ❛❣♦ ❜ ② ✭ ●r♦ss♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❙t✐❣❧✐t③ ✱ ✶✾✽✵ ✮ ❛♥❞ r❡✲
♠❛✐♥❡❞ ❦♥♦ ✇♥ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡ ❛s t❤❡ ♣ ❛r ❛❞♦① ♦❢ ✐♠♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❧②
❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡ts ✳
❚❤❡r ❡❢♦r ❡ ✇❡ ❝ ❛♥ ❝ ♦♥s✐❞❡r t❤❛t✱ ✐♥ ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡t✱ ♣ ❡r❢❡ ❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✐♥✲
✈❡st♦rs ❝ ❛♥ ♠❛❦❡ ❛ r ❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❞❡ ❝✐s✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❞❡ ❝✐❞❡ t♦ st♦♣ ♣ ❛②✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❝ ♦st ♦❢ ♣ ❡r❢❡ ❝t
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ st✐❧ ❧ ❤❛✈❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ r ❡t✉r♥s✳ ❲❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛❥♦r✐t② ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t❛❦❡s
t❤✐s ❞❡ ❝✐s✐♦♥✱ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐s tr ❛♥s❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ❛♥❞ ✐t st❛rts ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ✬❧❡ss✬ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t✳
❲❤❛t ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥ ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇❤❡r❡ ♥♦♥✲❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❜❛s❡❞ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❞♦♠✐✲
♥❛t❡ ♣r✐❝❡s❄ ❲ ❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡ ✐♥ ❚ ❡st ✶✶ s✉❝ ❤ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇❤❡r❡ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡✳
❚❤❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ♦❢ t❤✐s t❡st ❛r❡ ❢♦✉♥❞ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✷ ✳
ș♥ t❤✐s t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ ♣r✐❝❡s ❞❡♣❛rt ❢r❡q✉❡♥ t❧② ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ t❧② ❢r♦♠ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥✲

✶✺✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
❚ ❡st ✶✶
P ❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❱ ❛❧✉❡ ❊①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥
µV ✵✪ ◆♦ ❣r♦✇t❤ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
σV ✶✪ ✶✪ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥
◆ ✺✵✵ ◆✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❛②s
◆r ❛❣❡♥ts ✺✵✵ ✶✺✪ ●❖❉ ✭♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞✮ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
✶✺✪ ❇✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✼✵✪
❈❤❛rt✐st ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
µC ✷✪ ✹r♦✜t ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❝❤❛rt✐st ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
σC ✽✪
❛p [0,5;1.5] ❇✐❛s❡s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭❡①❛❣❣❡r❛t✐♦♥
♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❜✉t ♥♦ s❦❡✇❡❞ ❜✐❛s✮
❜p [−1;1]
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✷✿ ❚ ❡st ✶✶ ✲ ❙✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡❞ ❜② ❝❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs ❛♥❞ ✇✐t❤
♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ tr❛❞❡rs
❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳ ❚❤✐s ✐s ❞✉❡ t♦ t❤❡ tr❡♥❞ s♣❡❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs✳
❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ ❛♥ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✹✵ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞
♦❢ t❤❡ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ✇❡❛❧t❤ ♦❢ ❡❛❝❤ ✐♥✈❡st♦r t②♣❡✳ ❚❤❡ ✇❡❛❧t❤ ♦❢ ❝❤❛rt✐st ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✢✉❝✲
t✉❛t❡s ❤❡❛✈✐❧② ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ tr❡♥❞s t❤❡② ❝r❡❛t❡✳ ș♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✹✸ ✇❡ s❡❡ t❤❛t ❞✉r✐♥❣
t❤❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞s ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✱ t❤❡ ♠❛ ❥♦r✐t② ♦❢ t❤❡ st♦❝❦s ❛r❡ ❤❡❧❞ ❜②
❝❤❛rt✐st ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ▼♦st ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❧② ✱ ✇❤❡♥ ♣r✐❝❡s ❢❛❧❧ ❜❛❝❦ ❞♦✇♥ ♠♦st st♦❝❦s ❛r❡
❜♦✉❣❤t ❛❣❛✐♥ ❜② ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ❚❤✐s ❤❛♣♣❡♥s ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
❛❝❝❡♣t t♦ ❜✉② t❤❡ st♦❝❦ ❛t ❛ ♣r❡♠✐✉♠ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ș♥ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥✱
tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❤❛♣♣❡♥s ✐♥ ❛ ❢❡✇ st❡♣s✿ ❛✮ ✇❤❡♥ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ✈❡r② ❝❧♦s❡ t♦ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧s ❡✈❡r②✲
❜♦❞② tr❛❞❡s✱ ❜✮ ✇❤❡♥ ♣r✐❝❡s ♠♦✈❡ ❛✇❛② ❢r♦♠ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧s ♦♥❧② ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❝❤❛rt✐st
✐♥✈❡st♦rs tr❛❞❡✱ ❝✮ ✇❤❡♥ ♣r✐❝❡s st❛rt t♦ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ❝❤❛rt✐sts ❤♦❧❞ ❛❧❧ st♦❝❦s ❛♥❞ tr❛❞❡ ❞✮
✇❤❡♥ ♣r✐❝❡s ❢❛❧❧ t❤❡ ✜rst t♦ ❜✉② st♦❝❦s ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❝❤❛rt✐sts ❛r❡ t❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭❛♥❞ ♥❡①t ❛r❡ t❤❡ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✮✳
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ tr❛❞❡ ♠♦st ♦❢t❡♥✱ ❛♥❞ ❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧❧② ✇✐t❤ t❤❡
❝❤❛rt✐st ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✱ t❤❡② ♠❛♥❛❣❡ t♦ s♣❡❝✉❧❛t❡ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♣t✉r❡ t❤❡ ✇❡❛❧t❤ ♦❢ ❝❤❛rt✐st
tr❛❞❡rs✳ ș♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✸ ✇❡ s❤♦✇ t❤❡ s✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ❙❤❛r♣❡ r❛t✐♦s ❢♦r ❛❧❧ t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥
r✉♥s ♦❢ ❚ ❡st ✶✶✳
❇♦t❤ t❤❡ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ❛❣❡♥ts ♠❛♥❛❣❡ t♦ ♠❛❦❡
♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ❜✉② ✫ ❤♦❧❞ r❡t✉r♥s✱ ❛t t❤❡ ❡①♣❡♥s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡s✳ ❇✉t t❤❡
❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ♠❛♥❛❣❡ t♦ ❡❛r♥ ♦♥ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ t❤❡ ❤✐❣❤❡st r✐s❦✲❛❞❥✉st❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s✳
❘ ❡s❡ ❛r ❝❤ ◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ★ ✸ ❈❛♥ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❡ ❛r♥ ♠♦r ❡ t❤❛♥ ♥♦♥✲❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥✲
✈❡st♦rs❄ ș❢ ②❡s✱ ✐♥ ✇❤❛t ❝ ♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s❄
❆♥s✇ ❡r ✿ ș♥ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t t❤❡ ♣r✐❝ ❡ ❝ ❛♥ ❜ ❡ ♠♦✈❡ ❞ ✉♣ ❛♥❞ ❛✇❛② ❢r ♦♠
t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡s ✇❤❡♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭♦r ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❛♥②
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮ ❤❛✈❡ ♠♦r ❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣ ♦✇❡r t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ✇❡❧ ❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ș♥ s✉❝❤

✻✳✺✳ ❙✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✶✺✼
0 100 200 300 400 50050 100 150 200
TimePricesFundamental Value
Market Price
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✹✵✿ ▼❛r❦❡t ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✶ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡
✻✳✷✷
0 100 200 300 400 5001000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
TimeAverage wealth of tradersInformed
GOD
Chartist
Buy_and_Hold
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✹✶✿ ❆ ✈❡r❛❣❡ ✇❡❛❧t❤ ♣❡r ✐♥✈❡st♦r t②♣❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✶ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✷

✶✺✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
0 100 200 300 400 500600 800 1000 1200
TimeAverage cashInformed
GOD
Chartist
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✹✷✿ ❆ ✈❡r❛❣❡ ❝❛s❤ ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣s ♣❡r ✐♥✈❡st♦r t②♣❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✶ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs
✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✷
0 100 200 300 400 5000 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
TimeAverage number of stocksInformed
GOD
Chartist
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✹✸✿ ❆ ✈❡r❛❣❡ s✐③❡ ♦❢ st♦❝❦ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ♣❡r ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❣r♦✉♣ ✲ t❡st ✶✶ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✷

✻✳✺✳ ❙✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✶✺✾
❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r
✶✵✵ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❢♦r ❚ ❡st
✶✶❙❤❛r♣ ❡ ❘❛✲
t✐♦❚✲❙t❛t
▼❡❛♥ ❙❤❛r♣ ❡ r❛t✐♦ ❙ i
❢♦r ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♦r s✵✱✹✼✵✵✽✺ ✻✱✷✶✾✷✷✼
▼❡❛♥ ❙❤❛r♣ ❡ r❛t✐♦ ❙ b
❢♦r ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✶✱✼✼✷✻✹✾✺✸ ✸✵✱✼✻✾✾✷✽✶
▼❡❛♥ ❙❤❛r♣ ❡ r❛t✐♦ ❙ c ❢♦r
❝ ❤❛rt✐st ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✵✱✶✸✺✽✽✸✽✶ ✸✱✶✵✻✼✸✸✸
▼❡❛♥ ❙❤❛r♣ ❡ r❛t✐♦ ❙ b ❢♦r
❜✉② ✫ ❤♦❧❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✵✱✶✹✾✶✻✾✾✸ ✹✱✽✾✸✾✹✾✽✶
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✸✿ ❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r ♠ ✉❧t✐♣❧❡ r✉♥s ♦❢ ❚ ❡st ✶✶
s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥s ✇❡❧ ❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝ ❛♥ tr② t♦ s♣ ❡ ❝✉❧❛t❡ t❤❡ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❜✉t ✐t ❝ ❛♥
❤❛♣♣ ❡♥ t❤❛t t❤❡② ❞♦ ♥♦t ❤❛✈❡ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ r ❡s♦✉r ❝ ❡s t♦ r ❡✲❡st❛❜❧✐s❤ ❝ ♦rr ❡ ❝t ♣r✐❝ ❡s✳ ș❢
✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❞❡ ❝✐❞❡ t♦ ❣♦ ❛❣❛✐♥st ❛ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ♠❛r❦❡t t❤❡② ✇✐❧ ❧ t❛❦❡ t♦ ♦ ♠✉❝❤
♦r t♦ ♦ ❧❡ss r✐s❦ ❛♥❞ ❝ ❛♥ ♠❛❦❡ s✉❜ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ r✐s❦✲❛❞❥✉st❡ ❞ ♣ ❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝ ❡s ✲ ❛s ❧♦♥❣ ❛s
♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝ ❡s ❞♦ ♥♦t r ❡✈❡rt t♦ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡s ✐♥ ❛ r ❡ ❛❧✐st✐❝ t✐♠❡ ❢r ❛♠❡✭♦r
❛t ❧❡ ❛st ♥♦t ❜ ❡❢♦r ❡ t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ❤♦r✐③♦♥ ♦❢ ✇❡❧ ❧✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✮✳ ❯♥❞❡r s✉❝❤
❝✐r ❝✉♠st❛♥❝ ❡s t❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝ ❛♥ s✉r✈✐✈❡ ❛♥❞ ❡ ❛r♥ ♠♦r ❡ t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡ ❝t❧②
✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ▼♦r ❡ ♦✈❡r✱ ❢r ♦♠ ❛ ♣✉r ❡ ❝ ♦♠♣ ❡t✐t✐♦♥ ♣ ♦✐♥t ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇✱ ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t
✇✐t❤ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ♣r✐❝ ❡s ✭✇❤❡r ❡ ✇❡❧ ❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ tr ❛❞❡rs st♦♣ tr ❛❞✐♥❣✮ t❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r ❡ ❧❡❢t ❛❧♦♥❡ t♦ ❝ ♦♠♣ ❡t❡ ❛♥❞ ❝ ❛♣t✉r ❡ t❤❡ ✇❡ ❛❧t❤ ♦❢ ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
❧✐❦❡ ♥♦✐s❡ ♦r ❝❤❛rt✐st tr ❛❞❡rs✳ ❚❤❡r ❡❢♦r ❡✱ ✇❤❡♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t str ❛②s ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥t❧② ❢r ♦♠
❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②✱ r ❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✇❡❧ ❧✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝ ❛♥ ❜ ❡ ♠♦t✐✈❛t❡ ❞ ◆❖❚ t♦ ❡♥❣❛❣❡ ❛❣❛✐♥st
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t t❤✉s ♣r ♦✈✐❞✐♥❣ ♠♦r ❡ ❝ ♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ❢♦r ♠❛r❦❡t ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣✳ ș♥ ❛ ❞✐✛❡r ❡♥t
❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡✿ ✐t ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t ❛❧✇❛②s ♣ ❛② ✭❡♥♦✉❣❤✮ t♦ s♣ ❡ ❝✉❧❛t❡ ✐♥ ❢❛✈♦✉r ♦❢ t❤❡ ♦❜❥❡ ❝t✐✈❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡ ✳
❙✉❝ ❤ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛t✐♦♥s ❝♦♥ tr❛❞✐❝t t❤❡ ♦❧❞ ❛❞❛❣❡ s❛ ②✐♥❣ t❤❛t✱ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❧♦♥❣✲t❡r♠✱ ✧s♣ ❡❝✉✲
❧❛t♦rs✧ ✭♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♦r ♥♦t✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞✮ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ❞r✐✈ ❡♥ ♦✉t ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
❜ ② ♠♦r❡ ✬r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✬ ❛♥❞ ❜ ❡tt❡r ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❚❤✐s ✐❞❡❛ ✇ ❛s ❝♦♠♠♦♥❧② ❞❡❢❡♥❞❡❞
✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ♠♦r❡ ✧s♠❛rt✧ ♠♦♥❡② ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ❛ttr❛❝t❡❞ t♦ s✉❝ ❤ ❛ ♥♦♥✲
❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ s❡✐③❡ t❤❡ ♣r♦✜t ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t✐❡s✳ ❯♥❢♦rt✉♥❛t❡❧② t❤❡ r❡✈ ❡rs❡
♦❢ s✉❝ ❤ ❛♥ ❛r❣✉♠❡♥ t ✐s ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ t♦ ♦✿ ♠♦r❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♦r ♥♦t✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦
❜ ❡ ❛ttr❛❝t❡❞ t♦ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t t❤❛t ✐s ♥♦t ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡❞ ❜ ② ✬❝♦rr❡❝t✬ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✇❤❡r❡
♣r♦✜t ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t✐❡s ❝❛♥ ❡①✐st ✇✐t❤♦✉t t❤❡ ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ❜✉② ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳
șt ✐s ♦✉r ❜ ❡❧✐❡❢ t❤❛t t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇❤✐❝❤ ♠❛❦❡ t❤❡ ❜✐❣❣❡st r ❡t✉r♥s ❛r ❡ t❤♦s❡ ❛❜❧❡
t♦ t❛❦❡ ♦✈❡r✱ ❛s ❛ ❣r ♦✉♣✱ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝ ❡ ❛♥❞ ♠❛✐♥t❛✐♥ t❤✐s ❞♦♠✐♥❛♥❝ ❡ ❢♦r
s✉✣❝✐❡♥t❧② ❧♦♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ✭r ❡ ❣❛r ❞ ❧❡ss ♦❢ t❤❡ str ❛t❡ ❣② ♦❢ ❝ ♦♠♠♦♥ ✈❛❧✉❡ r ❡❢❡r ❡♥❝ ❡ t❤❡②
s❤❛r ❡✮✳ ș♥ ♦t❤❡r ✇♦r ❞s t❤❡ ✇✐♥♥✐♥❣ ✭❛♥❞ ❤❡♥❝ ❡ s✉r✈✐✈✐♥❣✮ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r ❡ t❤♦s❡ t❤❛t
❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡ ♣r✐❝ ❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r s✉✣❝✐❡♥t ❡♥♦✉❣❤ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ❛♥❞ ♥♦t t❤♦s❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t❤❛t

✶✻✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
tr② t♦ ❡st❛❜❧✐s❤ ❝ ♦rr ❡ ❝t ✬♣r✐❝ ❡s✬ ✭❜ ❛s❡ ❞ ♦♥ ❡ ❝ ♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧s✮✳ ❚❤❡r ❡❢♦r ❡✱ ❛♥
✐♥✈❡st♦r t❤❛t ❦♥♦✇s ✇❤❡♥ t♦ s✇✐t❝❤ str ❛t❡ ❣✐❡s ✭❛♥❞ ❛❧✇❛②s ❜ ❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞♦♠✐♥❛♥t ❣r ♦✉♣✮
❝ ❛♥ ♠❛❦❡ s✉♣ ❡r✐♦r ❣❛✐♥s t❤❛♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t❤❛t ❛❧✇❛②s st✐❝❦ t♦ ♦♥❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧s✲❜ ❛s❡ ❞
♦r ♣✉r ❡ s♣ ❡ ❝✉❧❛t✐✈❡ str ❛t❡ ❣②✳ ❚❤❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❝ ❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ s✉❝❤ ♠✐①❡ ❞ ♣✉r ❡✲♣r ♦✜t str ❛t❡ ❣✐❡s
❝ ❛♥ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ❜ ❡ ❞❡str✉❝t✐✈❡ ✭❤✉❣❡ ♣r✐❝ ❡ ❝r ❛s❤❡s✱ ❜ ❛♥❦r✉♣t❝②✱ ❡t❝✳✮ ❜✉t s✉❝❤ ❡✛❡ ❝ts
❛r ❡ ♥♦t ❢❛❝t♦r ❡ ❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡ ❝t❡ ❞ r ❡t✉r♥s ❝ ❛❧❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✳
❋ r♦♠ t❤❡s❡ r❡s✉❧ts ✇ ❡ ❛rr✐✈ ❡❞✱ ✐♥ ❛ r✐❣♦r♦✉s ♠❛♥♥❡r✱ ❛t ❛ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❝❛♥
❛❧s♦ ❜ ❡ ❡①tr❛♣ ♦❧❛t❡❞ ❢r♦♠ s♦♠❡ r❡♠❛r❦s ♦❢ ✇ ❡❧❧ ❦♥♦ ✇♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❧✐❦ ❡✿
✶✳ ✧șt✬s ♥♦t ✇❤❡t❤❡r ② ♦✉✬r❡ r✐❣❤ t ♦r ✇r♦♥❣ t❤❛t✬s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t✱ ❜✉t ❤♦ ✇ ♠ ✉❝ ❤ ♠♦♥❡②
② ♦✉ ♠❛❦ ❡ ✇❤❡♥ ② ♦✉✬r❡ r✐❣❤ t ❛♥❞ ❤♦ ✇ ♠ ✉❝ ❤ ② ♦✉ ❧♦s❡ ✇❤❡♥ ② ♦✉✬r❡ ✇r♦♥❣✳✧
●❡♦r❣❡ ❙♦r♦s
✷✳ ✧▼❛r❦ ❡ts ❝❛♥ r❡♠❛✐♥ ✐rr❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛ ❧♦t ❧♦♥❣❡r t❤❛♥ ② ♦✉ ❛♥❞ ș ❝❛♥ r❡♠❛✐♥ s♦❧✈ ❡♥ t✳✧
❏♦❤♥ ▼❛ ②♥❛r❞ ❑❡②♥❡s
❲ ❡ ❝❛♥ ♥♦ ✇ ❛s❦ ✇❤ ② ✇ ❡❧❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦ t❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇✐♥❣ ❛❝t✐♦♥s✿
✶✳ ❇✉② ✭s❡❧❧✮ ✉♥❞❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞ ✭♦ ✈ ❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞✮ st♦ ❝ ❦s ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✐❛s ❝❛♥ ♣ ❡rs✐st ❧♦♥❣
❡♥♦✉❣❤ ❢♦r t❤❡✐r tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥ ♥♦t t♦ ❜ ❡❝♦♠❡ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ✭❞✉r✐♥❣ t❤❡✐r ❤♦r✐③♦♥ ♦❢
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t✮
✷✳ ❈♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡ t♦ ♣❛ ② ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r ❜ ❡tt❡r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡② ❝❛♥♥♦t ♠❛❦ ❡ ❛ ❜ ❡tt❡r
r✐s❦✲❛❞❥✉st❡❞ ♣ ❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ❧❡ss ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭❤❡r❡ t❤❡
❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✮✳
❋ r♦♠ t❤❡s❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛t✐♦♥s ✇ ❡ ♥❛t✉r❛❧❧② ✐♥❢❡r t❤❛t ✐t ♠❛ ② ❜ ❡ ♠♦r❡ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ❢♦r
✇ ❡❧❧✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t♦ ❛❞♦♣t ❛ ❜✐✈ ❛❧❡♥ t ♦r ♠✐①❡❞ str❛t❡❣② ✿
✶✳ ●♦ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ♣r♦✜t ❞✐r❡❝t❧② ♦✉t ♦❢
s✉❝ ❤ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ✭❜✉② ✇❤❡♥ ♣r✐❝❡s ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡② ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡✱ r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡
t♦ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮✳ ❚❤✐s ✐♠♣❧✐❡s ❛ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st str❛t❡❣②
✷✳ ❲❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ♣❛ss❡s ♦ ✈ ❡r ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞ ✭✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ r✐s❦ ♦❢ ❛ s✐❣✲
♥✐✜❝❛♥ t ♣r✐❝❡ r❡✈ ❡rs❛❧ ✐s t♦ ♦ ❣r❡❛t ♦r t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ ✐s ❤✐❣❤ ❡♥♦✉❣❤✮ t❤❡
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡s str❛t❡❣② t♦ ✇ ❛r❞s ❛ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✇ ❡❧❧✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ str❛t❡❣② ✭❛♥❞
tr✐❡s t♦ ♣r♦✜t ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❜ ② r❡✈ ❡rt✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ t♦ ✇ ❛r❞s ✐ts ❢✉♥✲
❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮✳
❚ ♦ s❡❡ ✐❢ t❤✐s t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ ♠✐①❡❞ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st✲❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ str❛t❡❣② ❝❛♥ s✉r✈✐✈ ❡ ✭❛♥❞ ♠❛❦ ❡
❡①tr❛ ♣r♦✜ts✮ ✇ ❡ ❝♦♥str✉❝t ❛ ♥❡✇ t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤✐s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐s ❛❜❧❡ t♦
r❡✈ ❡rt t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❜❛❝ ❦ t♦ ✐ts ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ② ❡t ❤❡ st✐❧❧ ❣♦ ❡s ✇✐t❤ t❤❡
tr❡♥❞ ✭❛❞♦♣ts ❛ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st str❛t❡❣② ✉♣ t♦ ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞✮ ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❝❛❧❧ ❤✐♠ ❙ș❚❍ ✳
❆ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝♦♠ ❜✐♥❡s t❤❡ str❛t❡❣② ♦❢ ❛ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st ❛♥❞ ❛ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✳ ❚❤❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs t❤❛t ❣♦ ✈ ❡r♥ t❤❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ ❛ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❛r❡✿

✻✳✺✳ ❙✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✶✻✶
❛✮ ❈❤❛rt✐st str❛t❡❣②✿ µC ✱σC ❛♥❞ ♠❡♠♦r② ❧❡♥❣t❤ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ▲ t❤❛t ❣♦ ✈ ❡r♥ t❤❡
♣r✐❝❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ❜✉②✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧✐♥❣ r✉❧❡s ✭s❡❡ ♦♥
♣❛❣❡ ✾✼ ❢♦r ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st str❛t❡❣②✮
❜✮ ❚❤r❡s❤♦❧❞ ①✪✱ x=abs(Pt−Et(Ft|It)
Et(Ft|It)) r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t✐♥❣ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡✱
❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ t✬s ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✭❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥❛❧ ♦♥ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✬s ✐♥❢♦r✲
♠❛t✐♦♥✮ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ t❤❡ ❙ș❚❍ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡s str❛t❡❣② ❢r♦♠ ❛ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st
t♦ ❛♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ str❛t❡❣② ✳
ș❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ✐s ❢❛✐r❧② ✇ ❡❧❧ ♣r✐❝❡❞✱ ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐s ❧❡ss t❤❛♥ ①✪✱ t❤❡ ❙ș❚❍ ✇✐❧❧ tr② t♦ r✐❞❡ tr❡♥❞s ✲ ❛❞♦♣t✐♥❣ ❛ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st str❛t❡❣② ✳
❲❤❡♥ ❤✐❣❤ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ tr❡♥❞s ❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣✱ t❤❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐s ♠♦r❡
t❤❛♥ ①✪✱ t❤❡ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✇✐❧❧ s✇✐t❝ ❤ t♦ ❛ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ str❛t❡❣② ✳ ❲ ❡
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t❡ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞✱ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳
❲ ❡ r✉♥ ❛ ❢❡✇ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ♦❢ ❚ ❡st ✶✷ ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡
❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛s ✐♥ ❚ ❡st ✶✵ ❛✮ ✭✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✇ ❛s ♠❛❞❡ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs
❡①❝❡♣t ❢♦r t❤❡ ♣r❡s❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✮✳
❆s ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ s❡❡ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✹✹ ❛♥❞ ✻✳✹✺ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✐s ♣❧❡♥ t✐❢✉❧ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ✐s st✐❧❧
♦ ✈ ❡r♣r✐❝❡❞ ✭❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ s❦ ❡✇ ❡❞ ♦♣t✐♠✐st ❜✐❛s ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✮✳
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♠❛♥❛❣❡ t♦ ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥ t❧② ♦ ✈ ❡r♣r✐❝❡ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t t❤❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧②
✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❛❞❥✉st ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ❡♥❞ ✉♣ ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣ ♦♥❧② ❝❛s❤ ✭s❡❡
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✹✼ ✮✳ ❚ r❛❞✐♥❣ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❙ș❚❍ ❛♥❞ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ❚❤❡ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♦rs s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t❡ ❛♥ ② tr❡♥❞s t❤❛t ❡①✐st ✐♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✭✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❛r❡ ❛ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥
♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮✳ ❚❤❡② ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ♣r♦✜t ♦✛ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ tr❡♥❞s ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡
❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ❝♦✉♥ t❡r♣❛rt✐❡s ❢♦r t❤❡ tr❡♥❞✲❢♦❧❧♦ ✇✐♥❣ tr❛❞❡s✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡
❙ș❚❍ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❛❧s♦ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡② ❛ ✈ ♦✐❞ ❝r❡❛t✐♥❣ ❜✐❣ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜✲
❜❧❡s✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ ✐❢ t❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♣✉s❤ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡s t♦ ❤✐❣❤ t❤❡ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
✇✐❧❧ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t❡ ❛♥❞ s❡❧❧ t❤❡ ♦ ✈ ❡r♣r✐❝❡❞ ❛ss❡ts ✭✇❤✐❝ ❤ t❤❡② ❜✉② ❛❣❛✐♥ ❛t ❧♦ ✇ ❡r ♣r✐❝❡s✮✳
❚❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ♥❡❣❛t✐✈ ❡✳ ❆s
✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ s❡❡ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✺ ✱ t❤✐s ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ t❧② ♦ ✈ ❡r♣r✐❝❡s t❤❡
❛ss❡t✳ ❚❤❡ s✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ❙❤❛r♣ ❡ r❛t✐♦s s❤♦ ✇ ✉s t❤❛t ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❤♦❧❞
♦♥❧② ❝❛s❤ ✭❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡② s❡❧❧ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ✐s ♦ ✈ ❡r♣r✐✈ ❡❞✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❛r❡
❛❜❧❡ t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ r❡t✉r♥s ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❜✉② ❛♥❞ ❤♦❧❞ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ❛t t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡♥s❡ ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳
șt ✐s ❡✈ ❡♥ ♠♦r❡ ✐♥ t❡r❡st✐♥❣ t♦ r❡❣❛r❞ t❤❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡❞ ❜ ② ❝ ❤❛rt✐st ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ✇❤❡r❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛❜❧❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❛♣♣ ❡❛r✳ ❲ ❡ r✉♥
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✱ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✻ ✱ t❤❛t ❢♦r♠ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ✼✵✪
❝ ❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs ❛♥❞ ✶✵✪ ♦❢ ❡❛❝ ❤ ♦t❤❡r tr❛❞❡r t ②♣ ❡✳
❆ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❛s ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✻ ✐s ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡❞ ❜ ②
❝ ❤❛rt✐st ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ t❤ ✉s ❤❛s ❛ ♣r♦♣ ❡♥s✐t ② ❢♦r t❤❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✳ ❲ ❡ r✉♥
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✇✐t❤ t❤❡s❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r ❛ r❡❝✉rr✐♥❣ t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ r❡s✉❧t✿ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s
❛r❡ ❢♦r♠❡❞ ♦❢t❡♥ ❛♥❞ ♦ ❝❝❛s✐♦♥❛❧❧② t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ r❡t✉r♥s t♦ ✐ts ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❧❡✈ ❡❧
✭s❡❡ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✹✽ ✮✳

✶✻✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
❚ ❡st ✶✷
P ❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❱ ❛❧✉❡ ❊①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥
µV ✵✳✵✶✪ ❱ ❡r② s♠❛❧❧ ❞❛✐❧② ❣r♦✇t❤ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
σV ✶✪ ✶✪ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥
◆ ✺✵✵ ◆✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❛②s
◆r ❛❣❡♥ts ✺✵✵ ✶✵✪ ●❖❉ ✭♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞✮ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✶✵✪ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
✽✵✪ ❇✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
ap [0.8,2] ❇✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ❛ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❛♠♣❧✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ r❛♥❞♦♠❧② ❝❤♦s❡♥ ❢♦r t❤✐s ✐♥t❡r✈ ❛❧
bp [−1,1] ❇✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧✱ ♦♥ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡✱ ♥♦t s❦❡✇ t❤❡✐r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
µC ✷✪ ✻r♦✜t ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡② ❡♠✉❧❛t❡ ❛
❝❤❛rt✐st str❛t❡❣②
σC ✽✪
❳ [30%,60%] ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ❢r♦♠ ❛ ❝❤❛rt✐st t♦ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✲
✈❡st♦r str❛t❡❣② ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❛❜♦✈❡✴❜❡❧♦✇ t❤❡
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✇✐t❤ ①✪ ✭t❤❡ ❡①❛❝t t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞ ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤
✐♥✈❡st♦r ✐s ❞r❛✇♥ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❧② ❢r♦♠ t❤✐s ✐♥t❡r✈ ❛❧✮
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✹✿ ❚ ❡st ✶✷ ✲ ❙✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✱ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✭❞♦♠✐♥❛♥t✮✱ ♥♦t
❜✐❛s❡❞ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭●❖❉✮ ❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦ ✇✐t❤ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳
1 28 59 90 125 165 205 245 285 325 365 405 445 485
TimeVolume
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✹✹✿ ❚ r❛❞✐♥❣ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✷ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✷

✻✳✺✳ ❙✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✶✻✸
0 100 200 300 400 500−0.8 −0.7 −0.6 −0.5 −0.4 −0.3
TimeFundamental − Price
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✹✺✿ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✷ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✷
0 100 200 300 400 5001050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300
TimeAverage wealth of tradersInformed
GOD
Sith
Buy_and_Hold
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✹✻✿ ❆ ✈❡r❛❣❡ ✇❡❛❧t❤ ♣❡r ✐♥✈❡st♦r t②♣❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✷ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✷

✶✻✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
0 100 200 300 400 5000 10 20 30
TimeAverage number of stocksInformed
GOD
Sith
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✹✼✿ ❆ ✈❡r❛❣❡ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣s ♣❡r ✐♥✈❡st♦r t②♣❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✷ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛✲
r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✷
❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r ✺✵
s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✇✐t❤ ❜✐❛s❡❞
✐♥✈❡st♦rs❙❤❛r♣❡ ❘❛✲
t✐♦❚✲st❛t
▼❡❛♥ ❙❤❛r♣❡ r❛t✐♦ ❙ i
❢♦r ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✲
✈❡st♦r✵
▼❡❛♥ ❙❤❛r♣❡ r❛t✐♦ ❙ b ❢♦r
❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦r✵✱✶✸✵✺✶✶✸✻ ✷✱✶✵✾✺✻✸✹
▼❡❛♥ ❙❤❛r♣❡ r❛t✐♦ ❙ s ❢♦r
❙ș❚❍ ✐♥✈❡st♦r s✵✱✸✾✸✻✶✾✶✻ ✻✱✹✻✽✵✹✻✸✹
▼❡❛♥ ❙❤❛r♣❡ r❛t✐♦ ❢♦r ❛
❜✉② ✫ ❤♦❧❞ str❛t❡❣②✵✱✷✵✹✽✶✷ ✸✱✸✹✻✺✽✷✼
❆ ✈❡r❛❣❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡t
♣r✐❝❡✲✵✱✺✵✺✻✷✼✵✻ ✲✷✶✻✱✷✵✼✵✷✹
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✺✿ ❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r ❚ ❡st ✶✷ ✇✐t❤ ❞♦♠✐♥❛t✐♥❣ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs

✻✳✺✳ ❙✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✶✻✺
❚ ❡st ✶✸
P ❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❱ ❛❧✉❡ ❊①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥
µV ✵✳✵✶✪ ❱ ❡r② s♠❛❧❧ ❞❛✐❧② ❣r♦✇t❤ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
σV ✶✪ ✶✪ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❞❡✈✐❛t✐♦♥
◆ ✺✵✵ ◆✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❛②s
◆r ❛❣❡♥ts ✺✵✵ ✶✵✪ ●❖❉ ✭♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞✮ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✶✵✪ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
✶✵✪ ❇✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✼✵✪ ❈❤❛rt✐st ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
ap [0.8,2] ❇✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ❛ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❛♠♣❧✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ r❛♥❞♦♠❧② ❝❤♦s❡♥ ❢♦r t❤✐s ✐♥t❡r✈ ❛❧
bp [−1,1] ❇✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧✱ ♦♥ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡✱ ♥♦t s❦❡✇ t❤❡✐r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
µC ✭❙ș❚❍✮ ✷✪ ❳r♦✜t ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡② ❡♠✉❧❛t❡ ❛
❝❤❛rt✐st str❛t❡❣②
σC ✭❙ș❚❍✮ ✽✪
❳ [30%,60%] ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇✐❧❧ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ❢r♦♠ ❛ ❝❤❛rt✐st t♦ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✲
✈❡st♦r str❛t❡❣② ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❛❜♦✈❡✴❜❡❧♦✇ t❤❡
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✇✐t❤ ①✪ ✭t❤❡ ❡①❛❝t t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞ ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤
✐♥✈❡st♦r ✐s ❞r❛✇♥ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❧② ❢r♦♠ t❤✐s ✐♥t❡r✈ ❛❧✮
µC
✭❝❤❛rt✐st✮✷✪ ❳r♦✜t ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❝❤❛rt✐st ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
σC
✭❝❤❛rt✐st✮✽✪
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✻✿ ❚ ❡st ✶✸ ✲ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✱ ❜✐❛s❡❞✱ ♥♦t ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♣❡r✲
❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭●❖❉ ♦r ❨ ♦❞❛ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✮✱ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ ❛ ❞♦♠✐♥❛♥t
♣r♦♣♦rt✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝❤❛rt✐st ✐♥✈❡st♦rs

✶✻✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❡ ♦r❞❡r ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❡st ♣❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ✐♥✈❡st♦r t②♣❡✿ ❙ș❚❍s ❛r❡ ❜❡tt❡r
t❤❛♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛r❡ ❜❡tt❡r t❤❛♥ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳
❚❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t❤❛t ❣❡t t♦ ❧♦♦s❡ ❛r❡ ♦❢ ❝♦✉rs❡ t❤♦s❡ t❤❛t ❞♦ ♥♦t ❝♦♦r❞✐♥❛t❡ ♦♥ ❛ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✱
t❤❡ ❝❤❛rt✐sts✳ ❇② ❞❡❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣❡r❝❡♥t❛❣❡ ♦❢ ❝❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs ♦r ❜② s❦❡✇✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❜✐❛s
♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ tr❛❞❡rs ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ❤❛✈❡ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✇✐t❤ ♠♦r❡ ❛❝t✐✈✐t② ❛♥❞ ❧❡ss ❢r❡q✉❡♥t
♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✳ ❚❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts ✇❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡ ♥❡①t✱ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠♦st ♣❛rts✱ r❡st ✉♥❝❤❛♥❣❡❞✳
❆s ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣♦s✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡s ✻✳✹✽ ❛♥❞
✻✳✺✵ ❛❜♦✈❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❞❡♣❛rts ❢r❡q✉❡♥t❧② ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳
❚❤❡ ♠❛ss ♦❢ ❝❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs ♠❛♥❛❣❡ t♦ ❝♦♥tr♦❧ ♣r✐❝❡s✱ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥t❧② ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ✱
❛♥❞ s❤✐❢t t❤❡♠ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡s✳
❋ r♦♠ t❤❡ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ st♦❝❦ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦✱ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✺✷ ✱ ✇❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❛t
❞✉r✐♥❣ ♣❡r✐♦❞s ♦❢ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ♠♦st st♦❝❦s ❛r❡ ❤❡❧❞ ❜② ❝❤❛rt✐st ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ❖♥❝❡ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡
❜✉❜❜❧❡ st❛rts ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs st❛rt ❧❡tt✐♥❣ ❣♦ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♦✈❡r♣r✐❝❡❞ st♦❝❦s ✐♥ t❤❡ ❢♦❧✲
❧♦✇✐♥❣ ♦r❞❡r✿ ✜rst ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✱ ♥❡①t t❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧❧②
t❤♦s❡ t❤❛t ♦✈❡r❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮ ❛♥❞ ❧❛st t❤❡ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭❞❡✲
♣❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ t❤❡✐r ①✪ str❛t❡❣② t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞ ❧✐♠✐t✮✳ ❆❝t✉❛❧❧② ✱ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❜✉✐❧❞✲✉♣ ♣❤❛s❡ ♦❢ ❛
❜✉❜❜❧❡ t❤❡ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✐♠✐t❛t❡ ❝❤❛rt✐sts ❛♥❞ ❛❝t ❛s ❝❛t❛❧②st ❛♥❞ ❡✈❡♥ ❛♠♣❧✐✜❡rs
♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡✳ ❖♥❝❡ t❤❡ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs r❡❛❝❤ t❤❡✐r ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ r✐s❦ ❧✐♠✐t ✭t❤❡✐r rmin ✐s
❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ✸✵✪ t♦ ✻✵✪✮ t❤❡② s❡❧❧ t❤❡✐r st♦❝❦s t♦ ❝❤❛rt✐sts ❛♥❞ ❝❛s❤ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣r♦✜t ✭s❡❡
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✺✶ ✮✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❛❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❛♥❞ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
❛r❡ ♥♦t ❛❜❧❡ t♦ st♦♣ t❤❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s t❤❡ ❙ș❚❍✬s str❛t❡❣② ✐s ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡✳ ❆ ❙ș❚❍ ♠❛♥❛❣❡s
t♦ r✐❞❡✱ ✉♣ t♦ ❛ r✐s❦ ❧✐♠✐t✱ t❤❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡❞ ✭♦r ♠❛✐♥t❛✐♥❡❞✮ ❜② t❤❡ ❝❤❛rt✐st ✐♥✲
✈❡st♦rs✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t❤❡② ♠❛♥❛❣❡ t♦ ❝❛♣t✉r❡ ✇❡❛❧t❤ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❝❤❛rt✐st
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛t ❛ ❤✐❣❤❡r r❛t❡ t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ❚❤❡s❡ r❡s✉❧ts ❛r❡ r♦❜✉st✱ ❛s ✇❡
❝❛♥ s❡❡ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✼ ✳
❘ ❡s❡ ❛r ❝❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ★✺ ✿ ❘ ❡s❡ ❛r ❝❤ ◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ★✺✿ ❈❛♥ ❨ ♦ ❞❛ ❜ ❡ ❛t ❙✐t❤❄ ❍♦✇
❝ ❛♥ ❧✐✈❡ ❧♦♥❣❡r✱ ❨ ♦ ❞❛ ♦r ❙✐t❤❄
❆♥s✇ ❡r✿ ❨ ❡s✱ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ r ❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♣❧❛②❡rs t❤❛t ❝ ❛♥ ❛❝t ❛❧s♦ ❛s
✉♥✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞✮ ❝ ❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❛t ❨❖❉ ❆ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ♣❧❛②❡rs t❤❛t ❛❝t ♦♥❧② t♦ s♣ ❡ ❝✉❧❛t❡
♦♥ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣s r ❡❧❛t✐✈❡ t♦ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡s ✲ ❧✐❦❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡ ❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ♦r ❜✐❛s❡ ❞
✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✮ ✇❤❡♥ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝ ❡s ❛r ❡ ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥t❧② ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ✭♦r r ❡st ❜✐❛s❡ ❞ ❢♦r
s✉✣❝✐❡♥t❧② ❧♦♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s✮✳ ❲❤❡♥ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥s✱ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❡✐t❤❡r t❛❦❡
t♦ ♦ ♠✉❝❤ ♦r t♦ ❢❡✇ ❛ss❡ts ❛♥❞ ❧♦ ♦s❡ t❤❡ ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t✐❡s ❛✈❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❢♦r ✧❣♦✐♥❣✧ ✇✐t❤
t❤❡ tr ❡♥❞✳ ❙t❛♥❞❛r ❞ q✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❡ t❡sts t❤❛t r ❡❥❡ ❝t t❤❡ ❤②♣ ♦t❤❡s✐s t❤❛t ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✭❧✐❦❡ ❝❤❛rt✐sts ♦r ❙ș❚❍s✮ ❝ ❛♥ s✉r✈✐✈❡ ✐♥ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✐❣♥♦r ❡ t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t② t❤❛t
s♦♠❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✱ ❧✐❦❡ ♦✉r ❙ș❚❍ t②♣ ❡✱ ❝ ❛♥ ❦♥♦✇ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡ ✭♦r
❛t ❧❡ ❛st ❦♥♦✇ ✐❢ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝ ❡s ❞♦♥ ✬t r ❡✢❡ ❝t ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡s✮ ❛♥❞ ❝❤♦ ♦s❡ t♦ ❛❝t ❛s
❛ ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡ ❞ ✭s♣ ❡ ❝✉❧❛t❡ tr ❡♥❞s✮ ♦♥❧② ✐♥ s♣ ❡ ❝✐❛❧ ♠♦♠❡♥ts ✭✇❤❡♥ ♠❛r❦❡t ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣
❡①✐sts ❜✉t ✐s ♥♦t ❤✐❣❤ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ t♦ ✐♠♣❧② ❤✐❣❤ r✐s❦s✮✳
ș♥ t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s ❝❤❛♣t❡r✱ ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ s❡❡♥ t❤❛t ♣❡rs✐st❡♥t❧② ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡
♣♦ss✐❜❧❡ ❢♦r ❧♦♥❣ ♣❡r✐♦❞s✱ ❡✈❡♥ ✇✐t❤ s✐♠♣❧❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤❡ ❛♥s✇❡r t♦ t❤✐s

✻✳✺✳ ❙✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✶✻✼
0 100 200 300 400 5000 200 400 600 800
TimePricesFundamental Value
Market Price
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✹✽✿ ❊✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✸ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✻
0 100 200 300 400 5002000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
TimeAverage wealth of tradersInformed
GOD
Chartist
Sith
Buy_and_Hold
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✹✾✿ ❊✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ✇❡❛❧t❤ ♣❡r ✐♥✈❡st♦r t②♣❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✸ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✻

✶✻✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
0 100 200 300 400 5000.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04
TimeExcess Volatility, Vol(Fundamental) − Vol(Market)
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✺✵✿ ❊✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❡①❝❡ss ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ✲ t❡st ✶✸ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡
✻✳✷✻
0 100 200 300 400 500600 800 1000 1200 1400
TimeAverage cashInformed
GOD
Chartist
Sith
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✺✶✿ ❊✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ❝❛s❤ ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ✐♥✈❡st♦r t②♣❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✸ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✻

✻✳✺✳ ❙✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✶✻✾
0 100 200 300 400 5000 10 20 30
TimeAverage number of stocksInformed
GOD
Chartist
Sith
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✺✷✿ ❊✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ st♦❝❦ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ✐♥✈❡st♦r t②♣❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✸
s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✻
❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r ✺✵
s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✇✐t❤ ❜✐❛s❡❞
✐♥✈❡st♦rs❙❤❛r♣❡ ❘❛✲
t✐♦❚ st❛t
▼❡❛♥ ❙❤❛r♣❡ r❛t✐♦ ❙ i
❢♦r ♣❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✲
✈❡st♦r✵✱✾✼✻✼✸✶✼✾ ✶✵✱✷✸✶✷✽✻
▼❡❛♥ ❙❤❛r♣❡ r❛t✐♦ ❙ b ❢♦r
❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦r✶✱✾✼✷✵✵✸✺✸ ✷✼✱✷✺✻✵✹✸✻
▼❡❛♥ ❙❤❛r♣ ❡ r❛t✐♦ ❙ s
❢♦r ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✸✱✶✷✶✼✵✺✻✺ ✺✸✱✶✽✽✾✾✶✶
▼❡❛♥ ❙❤❛r♣❡ r❛t✐♦ ❙ c ❢♦r
❛ ❝❤❛rt✐st ✐♥✈❡st♦r✵✱✶✵✵✼✻✼✾✼ ✺✱✹✽✵✽✾✶✶✽
▼❡❛♥ ❙❤❛r♣❡ r❛t✐♦ ❢♦r ❛
❜✉② ✫ ❤♦❧❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦r✵✱✶✷✾✻✻✵✵✾ ✼✱✺✺✽✶✹✼✽
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✼✿ ❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r ❚ ❡st ✶✸ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s

✶✼✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
❧❛st r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥ ❣✐✈ ❡s ♣r♦ ♦❢ t❤❛t ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❜ ❡tt❡r ♦✛ ✐❢ t❤❡②
❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ t♦✱ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s✱ ✐❣♥♦r❡ t❤❡✐r ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✬r✐❞❡✬ ♠❛r❦ ❡t tr❡♥❞s✳
❲ ❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉❞❡ ❜ ② s❛ ②✐♥❣ t❤❛t ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♠❛♥ ② ✐♥❝❡♥ t✐✈ ❡s t♦✿
✶✳ ❯s❡ t❤❡✐r ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t♦ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t❡ ❧♦ ❝❛❧ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣s ✲ ♦♥❧② ✇❤❡♥
t❤❡ ♠❛ss ♦❢ ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✭♦r ❜❛❞❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞✮ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥♥♦t ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡ ♣r✐❝❡s
❢♦r s✉st❛✐♥❡❞ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ♦❢ t✐♠❡✳ ❚❤✐s str❛t❡❣② ✐s ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ✐♥ ❛ ✭❝❧♦s❡✲t♦✮ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t
♠❛r❦ ❡t✳
✷✳ ș❣♥♦r❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ♠❛❦ ❡ ♣r♦✜ts ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ tr❡♥❞s✱ ✉♣ t♦ ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥
❛❝❝❡♣t❡❞ r✐s❦ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ✭tr❛♥s❧❛t❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ❢r♦♠ ✧❛❝t✉❛❧✧ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s✮
✇❤❡♥ ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ♦r ❜❛❞❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♠❛♥❛❣❡ t♦ ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❢♦r
❧♦♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s✳ ❚❤✐s str❛t❡❣② ✐s ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ✐♥ ❛ ❢❛r✲❢r♦♠✲❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳
❙✉❝ ❤ ♠✐①❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t str❛t❡❣② ✱ ♣✉r❡❧② ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t❡❞ ❜ ② ♣r♦✜ts✱ ❝❛♥ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✐♥ ❜ ❡❛✉t ② ❝♦♥ t❡sts✿ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs tr② t♦ ♣r❡❞✐❝t t❤❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♦t❤❡rs ✭✐rr❡❧✲
❡✈ ❛♥ t ♦❢ ❜❛s✐❝ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❢❛❝ts✮✳ ❚❤✐s ❡♠❡r❣✐♥❣ ✧♥♦♥✲❡✣❝✐❡♥ t✧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts
❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ st♦♣♣ ❡❞ ✭♦r ❜ ❡ ❛♠♣❧✐✜❡❞✮ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ ♠ ✉❧t✐♣❧❡ ❢❛❝t♦rs✿
✶✳ s✉✣❝✐❡♥ t ♥❡✇ ✇ ❡❧❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✭♦r ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞✮ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❛ttr❛❝t❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡
♠❛r❦ ❡t
✷✳ ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✭✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞✮ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs s❡❡ t❤❡✐r ♣r♦✜ts ❞✐♠✐♥✐s❤ ❛♥❞ ❞❡❝✐❞❡ t♦ q✉✐t
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
❆ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t ❢r♦♠ ♠♦ ❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✬♠❛ ❥♦r✐t ② ❣❛♠❡✬ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡tt❡r ♠♦ ❞❡❧ t❤✐s
s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥ t✲❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❚❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t ♦❢ ✬♠❛ ❥♦r✐t ② ❣❛♠❡✬ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡s ❛
s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤❡r❡ ♣❧❛ ② ❡rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❛ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t ✇ ♦ ♦♣t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ✇✐♥♥❡rs
❛r❡ t❤♦s❡ ♣❧❛ ② ❡rs t❤❛t ♠❛❦ ❡ t❤❡ ♠❛ ❥♦r✐t ② ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ♦❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱
✈✐❡✇ ❡❞ ❛s ❛ ❣❛♠❡✱ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ t ✇ ♦ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡s ❢♦r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✿
❛✮ ❆❧❧ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ t♦ ❜✉② ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❛❝t ♦♥ ✐t ✭✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇❤❡r❡
❛❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♠❛❦ ❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥✮
❜✮ ❊✈ ❡r②❜ ♦ ❞② ✐❣♥♦r❡s t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ t❤❡② ♣❧❛ ② ❛ ❜ ❡❛✉t ② ❝♦♥ t❡st ✭✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡
❛♥ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t✮✳ ❘✐s❦ ✐s ❤✐❣❤❡r ❜✉t s♦ ❛r❡ ♣r♦♠✐s❡s ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥✳
❲ ❡ ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ t❤❛t r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠♦ ✈ ❡s ❢r♦♠ ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t t♦ ❛ ♥♦♥✲❡✣❝✐❡♥ t
st❛t❡✳ ș♥ ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❛❜✉♥❞❛♥ t✱ ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ✐♥❝❡♥ t✐✈ ❡s
t♦ ♥♦t ❜✉② ✐t ❛♥ ②♠♦r❡✳ ❲❤❡♥ ♠♦r❡ ❛♥❞ ♠♦r❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs st❛rt tr❛❞✐♥❣✱ ✇✐t❤♦✉t
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ♠♦ ✈ ❡ ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥ t❧② ❛ ✇ ❛ ② ❢r♦♠ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s✳
ș♥ t❤❛t ❝❛s❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❜ ❡tt❡r ♦✛ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡s❡ tr❡♥❞s ✉s✐♥❣
♥♦♥✲❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❜❛s❡❞ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s ✭❧✐❦ ❡ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✮✳ ❲❤❡♥ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✉s❡
♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ❜❛s❡❞ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ♠♦r❡ ❛♥❞ ♠♦r❡ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❝❛♥
❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✳ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ st❛rt ❛❣❛✐♥ t♦ ❜ ❡ ✈ ❛❧✉❛❜❧❡ ❛♥❞ ✇❤❡♥ ❛ s✉✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛ss
♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs st❛rt ✉s✐♥❣ ✐t t❤❡② ❝❛♥ ❝❛♣t✉r❡ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ❢r♦♠ ♣✉r❡ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ tr❛❞❡rs✳

✻✳✺✳ ❙✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✶✼✶
Inneficient market Pt= etEfficient market Pt= Ft+ et
tMarket’s level of efficiency
IPO
t=0
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✻✳✺✸✿ ❚❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ tr❛♥s✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡t ❢r♦♠ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② t♦ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②
❚❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❝❛♥ r❡❛❝❤ ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t st❛t❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❝②❝❧❡ st❛rts ❛❧❧ ♦✈❡r ❛❣❛✐♥✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡
✇❡ ♣r♦♣♦s❡ ❛ ♥❡✇ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥ r❡❧❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t ♦❢ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✇✐t❤ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✿
❙♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts t❤❡♦r❡♠✿ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛r ❡ ✧s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s
❡✣❝✐❡♥t✧✳ ▼❛r❦❡ts ❡①❤✐❜✐t ❛ ❝②❝❧✐❝ ❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛✈✐♦r✿ ❢r ♦♠ ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t st❛t❡ t♦ ❛♥ ✐♥❡❢✲
✜❝✐❡♥t st❛t❡✳ ▼♦st ♦❢ t❤❡ t✐♠❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣ ❛rt✐❝✐♣ ❛♥ts tr② t♦ ❞✐s❝ ♦✈❡r ❛♥❞ ❛❞♦♣t t❤❡
❞♦♠✐♥❛♥t ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t str ❛t❡ ❣②✿ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦r ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❜ ❛s❡ ❞✳ ❉❡♣ ❡♥❞✐♥❣
♦♥ t❤❡ r ❡❧❛t✐✈❡ ♣r ♦♣ ♦rt✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t str ❛t❡ ❣✐❡s t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐❧ ❧ ❜ ❡ ♠♦✈❡ t♦✇❛r ❞s
❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♦r ❛♥ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥t st❛t❡✳
❈♦rr♦❧❛r②✿ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❝ ❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❝ ♦♥s✐❞❡r ❡ ❞ t♦ ❜ ❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ❛t ❛ str ❛t❡ ❣② ❧❡✈❡❧✳
❲ ❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❛ str ❛t❡ ❣②✲str ♦♥❣ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡t ❛s ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✇❤❡r ❡ ❛❜ ♦✈❡✲♠❛r❦❡t
r✐s❦✲❛❞❥✉st❡ ❞ r ❡t✉r♥s ❝ ❛♥♥♦t ❜ ❡ ❛❝❤✐❡✈❡ ❞ ♣r ♦✈✐❞❡ ❞ ❛❧ ❧ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t str ❛t❡ ❣② t②♣ ♦❧♦ ❣✐❡s✼
❛r ❡ ❦♥♦✇♥✳ ❚❤❡ str ❛t❡ ❣②✲❧❡✈❡❧ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ♦❢ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t ♥♦ ♥❡✇ ✐♥✈❡st❡♠❡♥t
str ❛t❡ ❣② ❝ ❛♥ ✇✐♥ s✉♣ ❡r✐♦r r ❡t✉r♥s✳ ❚❤✐s ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐s ❛❧s♦
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❧② ❡✜❝✐❡♥t✳ ❆ ♠❛r❦❡t ❝ ❛♥ ❜ ❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❧② ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥t ❜✉t ♥♦ str ❛t❡ ❣②
❝ ❛♥ ❜ ❡ ✉s❡ ❞ t♦ ♣r ♦✜t ♦✛ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐♥♥❡✜❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s✳
❚❤❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ♦❢ t❤❡ tr❛♥s✐t ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡s❡ t✇♦ ✐♥st❛❜❧❡ ♠❛r❦❡t st❛t❡s ✐s ❝♦♠♣❧❡①
❛♥❞ t❤✐s ❝♦♠♣❧❡①✐t② ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❝❛♣t✉r❡❞✱ ✐♥ ♣❛rt✱ ✉s✐♥❣ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ t❡❝❤♥♦❧♦❣② ❧✐❦❡ ♦✉r
▲❯▼❆ t♦♦❧✳ ❚❤❡ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ t✇♦ ♠❛r❦❡t st❛t❡s ✭✇✐t❤ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t②
r❡❣✐♠❡s✮ ❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t st②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts✳
✼✇ ❡ r❡❢❡r t♦ ❦♥♦ ✇✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❛♥❞ ♥♦t ♥❡❝❡ss❛r✐❧② ✇❤✐❝ ❤ str❛t❡❣② ✭✇✐t❤
s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✮ ✐s ✉s❡❞ ❜ ② ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✳

✶✼✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✻✳ ❆♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s
ș♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✇ ❡ ♣r❡s❡♥ t ❛ st ②❧✐③❡❞ ❣❛♠❡ t❤❛t s❤♦ ✇s✱ ✐♥ ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ♠❛♥♥❡r✱
❤♦ ✇ ❛❣❡♥ ts✱ ❢❛❝❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ✉♥❞❡r r✐s❦✱ ❝❛♥ ❛♥❞ s❤♦✉❧❞ s✇✐t❝ ❤ ❢r♦♠ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❜❛s❡❞ str❛t❡❣② t♦ ✇ ❛r❞s ♠✐①❡❞ str❛t❡❣✐❡s t❤❛t t❛❦ ❡ ✐♥ t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥ t t❤❡
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ ♦t❤❡r ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ ts✳

❈❤❛♣t❡r ✼
❚❤❡ s❤❛r❦ ❣❛♠❡✿ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ✇✐t❤
❜♦✉♥❞❡❞ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t②
❈♦♥t❡♥ts
✼✳✶ ș♥ tr♦ ❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✸
✼✳✷ ❚❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✺
✼✳✸ ❘❡s✉❧ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✾
✼✳✹ ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✸
❆❜str❛❝t✿ ❲ ❡ ♣r ❡s❡♥t ❛ t♦② ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❍✉♥❣r② s❤❛r❦s r ❡♣r ❡✲
s❡♥t ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ r ❡✇❛r ❞s ❢♦r ❡ ❛t✐♥❣ ♦r ♥♦t ♠❡ ❛t r ❡♣r ❡s❡♥t r ❡t✉r♥ ♦♥ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥ts✳
❙❤❛r❦s ❛❞❛♣t ❛♥❞ ❧❡ ❛r♥ ✇❤❛t ❛r ❡ t❤❡ ❜ ❡st ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ❤✉♠❛♥ ❧❡ ❛r♥✐♥❣ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞✱
r ❡✐♥❢♦r ❝ ❡♠❡♥t✲❧❡ ❛r♥✐♥❣✳ ❉✐✛❡r ❡♥t ♣ ❛②♦✛ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥s ❝ ❛♥ ❧❡ ❛❞ s❤❛r❦ t♦ ✜♥❞ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧
str ❛t❡ ❣✐❡s✳ ❲ ❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐❣❛t❡ t❤❡ ❝ ❛s❡s ✇❤❡r ❡ ❡ q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ❡①✐sts ❜✉t ✐t ❝ ❛♥♥♦t ❜ ❡ r ❡ ❛❝❤❡ ❞✳
❲ ❡ ♣ ♦st✉❧❛t❡ t❤❛t s❤❛r❦s✱ ❡✈❡♥ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❦♥♦✇✐♥❣✱ ❝ ❛♥ ❡♥❣❛❣❡ ✐♥ s❡ ❝ ♦♥❞✲♦r ❞❡r ❞②♥❛♠✲
✐❝s✳ ❚❤❡✐r ❜ ❡❤❛✈✐♦r ♠✐♠✐❝s t❤❛t ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇❤♦✱ ✐♥ t❤❡✐r s❡ ❛r ❝❤ ❢♦r ♠♦r ❡ ♣r ♦✜t✱
❝ ❛♥ ✐❣♥♦r ❡ ❡ ❝ ♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❡♥❣❛❣❡ ✐♥ ✧❜ ❡ ❛✉t② ❝ ♦♥t❡sts✧ t❤✉s r ❡♥❞❡r✐♥❣
♠❛r❦❡ts ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥t✳ ❲ ❡ ♠❛♥❛❣❡ t♦ r ❡♣❧✐❝ ❛t❡ t❤✐s ❜ ❡❤❛✈✐♦r ✇✐t❤ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✲❢r ❡ ❡ ❧❡ ❛r♥✐♥❣
❛♥❞ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❛♥② ❡♥❞♦ ❣❡♥♦✉s ✐♥❝ ❡♥t✐✈❡s✳
✼✳✶ ș♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥
❘❡❝❡♥t ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❡✈❡♥ts✱ ❛♥❞ t❤❡✐r ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s✱ ❤❛✈❡ ♣r♦♠♣t❡❞ ❛ ❣r❡❛t
♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❛❝t✐♦♥s st❛rt✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ❧♦ss s❤❛r✐♥❣ t♦ ♥❡✇ ♣♦❧✐❝✐❡s ❢♦r ❜❡tt❡r ❣♦✈❡r♥❛♥❝❡
♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳ ❋ r♦♠ ❛♥ ❛❜str❛❝t ♣❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡✱ ✇❡ s❛② t❤❛t✱ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❧❛st ❞❡❝❛❞❡✱
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❤❛✈❡ ❡✐t❤❡r ❣r♦ss❧② ♠✐s♣r✐❝❡❞ ❛ss❡t r✐s❦ ✭❈❉❖ r✐s❦ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❛s
❞❡s❝r✐❜❡❞ ✐♥ ✭ ❍❛♠❡r❧❡ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✾ ✮✮ ♦r t❤❡② ❤❛✈❡ ❜❛❞❧② ♣r✐❝❡❞ ❛ss❡t ❢✉t✉r❡ ❝❛s❤✲✢♦✇s
❛♥❞ ♣r✐❝❡s ✭❛s ❞✉r✐♥❣ t❤❡ ș❚ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ✭ ▼♦rr✐s ❛♥❞ ❆❧❛♠ ✱ ✷✵✶✷ ✮✮✳ ❘❡❛s♦♥s ❢♦r t❤❡s❡
♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣s ❛r❡ ♥✉♠❡r♦✉s ❛♥❞ ❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝s t❡♥❞ t♦ r❡✈♦❧✈❡ ❛r♦✉♥❞ t❤❡ ♦✈❡r✇❤❡❧♠✐♥❣
❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ❢r♦♠ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧ s❝✐❡♥❝❡s✱s❡❡ ✭ ❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✶✾✽✶ ✮ ♦r ✭ ❈❤❛r♥❡ss ❛♥❞
▲❡✈✐♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✸ ✮✱ ♥❛♠❡❧② t❤❛t ❤✉♠❛♥s ❛r❡ ❜♦✉♥❞❡❞❧② r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✳
ș♥ t❤✐s ❝♦♥t❡①t ✇❡ ♣r♦♣♦s❡ ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❣❛♠❡✶✱ t❤❛t ♠✐♠✐❝s ❜♦✉♥❞❡❞❧② r❛t✐♦♥❛❧
✶❚❤✐s ✐s ❛♥ ❡①t❡♥❞❡❞ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛rt✐❝❧❡✱ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ t✐t❧❡✱ ♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ ❛t t❤❡ ș♥ t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧

✶✼✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✼✳ ❚❤❡ s❤❛r❦ ❣❛♠❡✿ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ✇✐t❤ ❜ ♦✉♥❞❡❞ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ②
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❢❛❝❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ✉♥❞❡r r✐s❦✳ ❲ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ t❡st ✐❢ ❛♥❞ ✇❤❡♥ ❛ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞
❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ❡♠❡r❣❡s✳ ❇❡s✐❞❡s ✐ts t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s✱ ♦✉r ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✐s ✉s❡❢✉❧ ❛s ❛
❞✐❞❛❝t✐❝ ❛♥❞ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ t♦ ♦❧ ❢♦r ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ✉♥❞❡r r✐s❦✳
❲ ❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐❣❛t❡ t❤❡ ❡♠❡r❣❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ✐♥ ❛ ✐❞❡❛❧✐③❡❞ ✇ ♦r❧❞ ✇❤❡r❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❛r❡ r❡♣❧❛❝❡❞ ❜ ② s❤❛r❦s ❛♥❞ ❛ss❡ts ❛r❡ r❡♣❧❛❝❡❞ ❜ ② ♠❡❛t✳ ❙❤❛r❦s ❛r❡ ❤ ✉♥❣r② ❛♥❞ t❤❡②
✜♥❞ ❛ ❝ ❤ ✉♥❦ ♦❢ ♠❡❛t✳ ❆❧❧ ♦❢ t❤❡ s❤❛r❦s ❛r❡ ❡❛❣❡r t♦ ❡❛t ❜✉t✱ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡✐r ❡①❝❡❧❧❡♥ t
s❡♥s❡ ♦❢ s♠❡❧❧✱ t❤❡② ❞❡t❡❝t t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❡❛t ❤❛s ❛ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣✐❡❝❡ t❤❛t ❝♦✉❧❞ ❤ ✉rt ♦r ❡✈ ❡♥
❦✐❧❧ t❤❡♠✳ ❚❤❡ s❤❛r❦s ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❛t ❛ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣✐❡❝❡ ✐s ♣r❡s❡♥ t ❜✉t t❤❡② ❞♦ ♥♦t ❦♥♦ ✇
✇❤❡r❡ t❤❛t ♣✐❡❝❡ ✐s✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ s❤❛r❦s ❛r❡ ❢❛❝❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ❛ r✐s❦② ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥✿ ❞♦ ♥♦t ❡❛t
✭❛♥❞ st❛r✈ ❡✮ ♦r ❡❛t✳ ș❢ ❛ s❤❛r❦ ❞❡❝✐❞❡s t♦ ❡❛t ❤❡ ❤❛s ❛❧s♦ t♦ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ❤♦ ✇ ♠❛♥ ②
❜✐t❡s t♦ t❛❦ ❡ ❛♥❞ ❢♦r ❤♦ ✇ ❧♦♥❣✱ s♦ ❤❡ ❝❛♥ ❡❛t ❛ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ❛♠♦✉♥ t ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❛♥❞ ❛ ✈ ♦✐❞
t❤❡ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣❛rt✳ ș♥ t❤✐s s❡tt✐♥❣✱ ✇ ❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐❣❛t❡ ✐❢ r❡✐♥❢♦r❝❡♠❡♥ t✲❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ s❤❛r❦s ❝❛♥
♠❛♥❛❣❡ t♦ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r ❛♥ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ s♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ✇❤❡r❡ ❛ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ♣✐❡❝❡s ♦❢
♠❡❛t ❛r❡ ❡❛t❡♥ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣✐❡❝❡ ✐s ❛ ✈ ♦✐❞❡❞✳
❚ ♦ ② ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❡♥ ❝r❡❛t❡❞ ❛♥❞ ✉s❡❞ t♦ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡
s✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ♦❢ ❜ ♦✉♥❞❡❞❧② r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✐♥ ❛♥ ❝♦♠♣ ❡t✐t✐✈ ❡ ❡♥ ✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥ t✳ ❖♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡
❡❛r❧✐st ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ✇ ❛s t❤❡ ✧❊❧ ❋ ❛r♦❧ ❜❛r ♣r♦❜❧❡♠✧ ✭ ❆rt❤ ✉r ✱ ✶✾✾✶ ✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❝✐t✐③❡♥s ♦❢ ❊❧
❋ ❛r♦❧ ❧✐❦ ❡ t♦ ✈✐s✐t t❤❡ ❧♦ ❝❛❧ ❜❛r✳ ❇✉t ✐❢ t❤❡ ❜❛r ✐s t♦ ♦ ❝r♦ ✇❞❡❞ ✭♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ✻✵✪
❛tt❡♥❞❛♥❝❡✮ ❡✈ ❡r② ♦♥❡ ❤❛s ❛ ❜❛❞ ❡①♣ ❡r✐❡♥❝❡✳ ❊❛❝ ❤ ✇ ❡❡❦✱ ❛❣❡♥ ts ✭✇❤♦ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❊❧
❋ ❛r♦❧✬s ✐♥❤❛❜✐t❛♥ ts✮ tr② t♦ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ✇❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛ ❥♦r✐t ② ✇✐❧❧ ❞♦✳ ș❢ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ❢♦r❡❝❛sts
t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠❛ ❥♦r✐t ② ✇✐❧❧ ❣♦✴♥♦t ❣♦ t❤❡ ❜❛r t❤❡♥ ❤❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❛❞♦♣t t❤❡ ♦♣♣ ♦s✐t❡ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡✳
❯s✐♥❣ ♠✐①❡❞✲str❛t❡❣✐❡s✱ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts ♠❛♥❛❣❡ t♦ ❝♦♥ ✈ ❡r❣❡ t❤❡ ♠❡❛♥ ❛tt❡♥❞❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡
❜❛r t♦ ✐ts ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ❝❛♣❛❝✐t ② ✳ ❨ ❡t t❤❡ ❛tt❡♥❞❛♥❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ✐s ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ✢✉❝t✉❛t✐♥❣ ❛r♦✉♥❞
t❤✐s ♠❡❛♥ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ t str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❛r❡ ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ❝ ❤❛♥❣✐♥❣✳
ș♥ ✭ ❈❤❛❧❧❡t ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✶ ✮ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ❝♦✐♥ t❤✐s t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢ t♦ ②✲♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❛s ❛ ✬♠✐♥♦r✐t ②
❣❛♠❡✬✳ ❆s t❤❡ ♥❛♠❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❡ ❜ ❡st str❛t❡❣② ✐s t♦ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ t❤❡ ♦♣t✐♦♥ t❤❛t t❤❡
♠✐♥♦r✐t ② ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡s✳ ❆❧❧ t❤❡ ❣❛✐♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠✐♥♦r✐t ② ❛❣❡♥ ts ❛r❡ s♣❧✐t ❡q✉❛❧❧② ✳ ❯♥❞❡r
r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s s✉❝ ❤ ❛ ❣❛♠❡ ❤❛s ♥♦ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ❛♥❞ ✐s ❛ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈ ❡✲s✉♠ ❣❛♠❡✳
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ❢❡❛t✉r❡s t❤❡ ❣♦❛❧ ♦❢ ❝❛♣t✉r✐♥❣ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ✇ ❛s ♥♦t
❛❝ ❤✐❡✈ ❡❞✳
❚❤✐s ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❤❛s ❡✈ ♦❧✈ ❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ ♠♦r❡ r❡❛❧✐st✐❝ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❛t✐♦♥
❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❛ ❣r❛♥❞ ❝❛♥♦♥✐❝❛❧ ♠✐♥♦r✐t ② ❣❛♠❡ ✭✭ ●❛❧❧❛ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✻ ✮ ♠❛❦ ❡s ❛♥ ❡①❝❡❧❧❡♥ t
r❡✈✐❡✇✮✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ❝♦♥ t❡①t✱ ❛❣❡♥ ts ❝❛♥ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡✱ ❛t ❛♥ ② ♠♦♠❡♥ t ✐♥ t✐♠❡✱ ♥♦t t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡
❛ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ✭t❤ ✉s ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤✐♥❣ ♠♦r❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t❤❛t ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t ❡♥ t❡r
❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✮✳ ❚❤✐s ♦♣t✐♦♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡s ✢✉❝t✉❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ t❤❡ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts✬ ❛❝t✐♦♥s
✭❧✐❦ ❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡✮ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ✐♥ t✉r♥ ❧❡❛❞s t♦ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♣r♦♣r✐❡t✐❡s s✐♠✐❧❛r t♦ st ②❧✐③❡❞
❢❛❝ts ✭ ❄ ✮✳ ❋ ✉rt❤❡r r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ✇❤❡r❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts ❤❛❞ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ t❤❛t ❡✈ ♦❧✈ ❡❞
✐♥ t✐♠❡✳ ❚❤✐s ❛❜✐❧✐t ② ❝r❡❛t❡❞ ❛ ✇ ❡✐❣❤ t ❡✛❡❝t ✇❤❡r❡ ❛ ❛❣❡♥ t✬s ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡❞ t❤❡
❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ♦✉t❝♦♠❡ ❛s ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❤✐s ❝❛♣✐t❛❧✳
ș♥ ✭ ❉✳❙♦r♥❡tt❡ ❛♥❞ ❆♥❞❡rs❡♥ ✱ ✷✵✵✸ ✮ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ ✬t❤❡ ❞♦❧❧❛r ❣❛♠❡✬✱ ❛
❈♦♥❢❡r❡♥❝❡ ✧❆rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s✧ ✷✵✶✷✳

✼✳✷✳ ❚❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✶✼✺
t♦ ②✲♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✇✐t❤ ❢❡❛t✉r❡s ❝❧♦s❡ t♦ t❤♦s❡ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ❚❤❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡❞ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡❞
♣❛ ② ♦✛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ❢♦r❝❡s ♣❧❛ ② ❡rs t♦ ❧❡❛r♥ ❛♥❞ ❛❞❛♣t t♦ t ✇ ♦✲♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞✲❛❤❡❛❞ str❛t❡❣✐❡s✳
❆❣❡♥ ts ❝❛♥ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ t♦ ❜ ❡ ✐♥ ❛ ♠✐♥♦r✐t ② ✭✇❤❡♥ t❤❡② s❡❧❧ ✐♥ ❛♥ t✐❝✐♣❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡
r❡✈ ❡rs❛❧✮ ♦r ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛ ❥♦r✐t ② ✭✇❤❡♥ t❤❡② ❜✉② ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡② ❡①♣ ❡❝t ❡✈ ❡r②❜ ♦ ❞② ❡❧s❡ ✇✐❧❧
❜✉②✮✳ ❚❤✐s ❢r❛♠❡✇ ♦r❦ ❛❧❧♦ ✇s ❢♦r r✐❝ ❤❡r ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡s ❞②♥❛♠✲
✐❝s t❤❛t ❜ ❡tt❡r r❡♣r♦ ❞✉❝❡ t❤♦s❡ ♦❢ r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳
▼✐♥♦r✐t ②✲t ②♣ ❡ ❣❛♠❡s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛❧s♦ t❤❡✐r ❞✐s❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡s✳ ❚❤❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣✉r❡
s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ♠❛❦ ❡s s✉♣ ❡r✢✉♦✉s t❤❡ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❡①♦❣❡♥♦✉s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤✐s
❢❡❛t✉r❡s ✐♠♣❧② t❤❛t t❤❡r❡ ✐s ♥♦ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ st❛t❡ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ❛❣❡♥ ts tr② ✱ ❜ ② ❞❡s✐❣♥✱ t♦
♦✉t❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡❛❝ ❤ ♦t❤❡r✳ ❚❤❡ ❧❛❝ ❦ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❡①♦❣❡♥♦✉s ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡ ✭❧✐❦ ❡ ❛ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
✇❤❡r❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s❤♦✉❧❞ ❝♦♥ ✈ ❡r❣❡✮ ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t ❛❧❧♦ ✇ ❢♦r ❛ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ♦❢ ❝♦rr❡❝t♥❡ss ♦r
r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ✳ ❆s t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦rs ♦❢ ✭ ❈❤❛❧❧❡t ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✶ ✮ ♠❡♥ t✐♦♥ ✬❆ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤
✐s ❤❡❧♣❧❡ss✬✳ ❊✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ❡①❤✐❜✐t ♣✉r❡ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r
✭♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ t❤❛t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✮ ✐t ✐s
♥♦t ♣r♦ ❞✉❝t✐✈ ❡ t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛♥❞ ✇ ♦r❦ ✇✐t❤ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✇❤❡r❡ ♣✉r❡
s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❡♠ ❜ ❡❞❞❡❞ ❜ ② ❞❡s✐❣♥✳
❚❤❡ ✬❙❤❛r❦ ●❛♠❡✬ ✇ ❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ ❛❞❞s t♦ t❤❡ ❡①✐st✐♥❣ ❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡ ❜ ② ♣r♦♣ ♦s✲
✐♥❣ ❛ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ t❤❛t ❛ ✈ ♦✐❞s t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s ♠❡♥ t✐♦♥❡❞ ❜ ❡❢♦r❡✳ ș♥ ♦✉r ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❛ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧
❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ❡①✐sts✳ ❙✉❝ ❤ ❛♥ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t ✇ ♦ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✿ t❤❡
❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡❞ ♦✉t❝♦♠❡ ✭❧✐❦ ❡ ♣r✐❝❡✮ ❝♦♥ ✈ ❡r❣❡s t♦ t❤❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧❧② ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ s♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ✭✇❤❡♥
♣r✐❝❡ r❡✢❡❝ts ♦♥❧② t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮ ❛♥❞ t❤✐s st❛t❡ ✐s ❛❧s♦ ❛ ◆❛s❤ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠
✭ ◆❛s❤✱ ❏r✳ ✱ ✶✾✺✵ ✮ ✭♥♦ ❛❣❡♥ t ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡♥❡✜t ♠♦r❡ ❜ ② ❝ ❤❛♥❣✐♥❣ ❤✐s str❛t❡❣②✮✳ ❨ ❡t✱ r❡❛❧
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❞♦ ♥♦t ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ t ✇ ♦ ♥❡❝❡ss❛r② ✐♥❣r❡❞✐❡♥ ts ❢♦r
❛❝ ❤✐❡✈✐♥❣ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠✿ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✉♥✲
❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ❛ss❡t ♠♦ ❞❡❧✳ ș♥ ♦✉r ♠♦ ❞❡❧✱ s❤❛r❦s ❡♥❝♦✉♥ t❡r s✐♠✐❧❛r ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ❛s r❡❛❧
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✿ ❧❛❝ ❦ ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❧❛❝ ❦ ♦❢ ❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣❡ ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ❣❛♠❡✬s
♠♦ ❞❡❧✳ ❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ❤♦ ✇ ❛♥❞ ✇❤❡♥ ❞♦ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧❡❞ s❤❛r❦s✱ ✉s✐♥❣ r❡✐♥❢♦r❝❡♠❡♥ t✲
❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣✱ ❛rr✐✈ ❡ ❛t ❛♥ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠✳ ❚❤❡ s✐♠♣❧✐❝✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡ ❣❛♠❡ ❛♥❞ ✐ts ✐♥ t✉✐t✐✈ ❡
♥❛t✉r❡ ❛❧❧♦ ✇s ♦✉r ♠♦ ❞❡❧ t♦ ❜ ❡ ✉s❡❞ ✐♥ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❝♦♥ t❡①ts ❛♥❞ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s ✭❧✐❦ ❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t
♠❛r❦ ❡ts t ②♣ ❡s ♦r ❝♦ ♦♣ ❡r❛t✐♦♥ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s✮✳
✼✳✷ ❚❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧
❈♦♥s✐❞❡r ❛ s♠❛❧❧ s❡❛ ❣♦❧❢ ✇❤❡r❡ ◆ s❤❛r❦s s❡❛r❝ ❤ ❢♦r ❢♦ ♦ ❞✳ ❚❤❡② ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r ❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞
♣✐❡❝❡ ♦❢ ♠❡❛t t❤❛t ✉♥❢♦rt✉♥❛t❡❧② ❤❛s ❛ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣❛rt✳ ❚❤❡ ♠❡❛t ❤❛s ▼ ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❛
s❤❛r❦ ❝❛♥ ❡❛t ❛ ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥ ❛t ❛ t✐♠❡✳ ❙❤❛r❦s ❝❛♥♥♦t ❞✐st✐♥❣✉✐s❤ t❤❡ ♣✐❡❝❡s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❛♥❞
t❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❞❡t❡❝t✱ ✐♥ ❛❞✈ ❛♥❝❡✱ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥ ✐s t♦ ①✐❝✳ ❋ ♦r s✐♠♣❧✐❝✐t ② ✱
❝♦♥s✐❞❡r t❤❡ ♣✐❡❝❡ ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❛s ❧✐♥❡❛r ❛♥❞ t❤❛t s❤❛r❦s ❝❛♥ ❡❛t ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t st❛rt✐♥❣
❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ✜rst ♦♥❡✳
❆ s❤❛r❦✬s ❣♦❛❧ ✐s t♦ ❛❝❝✉♠ ✉❧❛t❡ t❤❡ ♠♦st ♣ ♦✐♥ ts ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡✳ ❆ s❤❛r❦ ❝❛♥ r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡ ❆
♣ ♦✐♥ ts ❢♦r ❡❛t✐♥❣ ❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♣✐❡❝❡ ♦❢ ♠❡❛t✳ ș❢ ❛ s❤❛r❦ ❞❡❝✐❞❡s ♥♦t t♦ ❡❛t ❛ ♣✐❡❝❡ ♦❢ ♠❡❛t

✶✼✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✼✳ ❚❤❡ s❤❛r❦ ❣❛♠❡✿ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ✇✐t❤ ❜ ♦✉♥❞❡❞ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ②
6 5 4 3 2 1
Pieces of meat
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✼✳✶✿ ❙❤❛r❦s ❛♥❞ ❛ ♣✐❡❝❡ ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ✇✐t❤ ✻ ♣♦rt✐♦♥s ✭✇❤❡r❡ ♣♦rt✐♦♥ ✹ ✐s t♦①✐❝✮
❤❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❣❡t ❇ ♣♦✐♥ts✳ ❍♦✇❡✈❡r✱ ✐❢ ❛ s❤❛r❦ ❡❛ts t❤❡ ♣♦✐s♦♥♦✉s ♣♦rt✐♦♥ ❤❡ ✇✐❧❧ r❡❝❡✐✈❡
❩ ♣♦✐♥ts✳ ș❢ ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ♦♥❡ s❤❛r❦ ❞❡❝✐❞❡ t♦ ❡❛t t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♣♦rt✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❡❛t t❤❡♥ ✐t
✐s ♥♦t s✐♠♣❧❡ t♦ ❞❡❝✐❞❡ ❤♦✇ t♦ s♣❧✐t t❤❡ r❡✇❛r❞✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ♥❡✇ ♣♦rt✐♦♥ ♦❢
♠❡❛t ❛✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡✱ s❤❛r❦s ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ❛s❦❡❞ r❛♥❞♦♠❧② ❢♦r t❤❡✐r ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s✳ ș❢ ❛ s❤❛r❦✱ ✇❤❡♥
❛s❦❡❞✱ ❞❡❝✐❞❡s t♦ ❡❛t t❤❡♥ ❤❡ r❡❝❡✐✈❡s t❤❡ r❡✇❛r❞ ❢♦r ❡❛t✐♥❣ ✭❆ ♦r ❩✮ ❛♥❞ ❛ ♥❡✇
r♦✉♥❞ ❜❡❣✐♥s ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ r❡♠❛✐♥✐♥❣ ♣♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t✳ ❍♦✇❡✈❡r✱ ✐❢ ❛ q✉❡st✐♦♥❡❞ s❤❛r❦
❞❡❝✐❞❡s ♥♦t t♦ ❡❛t✱ ❤❡ ✇✐❧❧ r❡❝❡✐✈❡ ❇ ♣♦✐♥ts ❛♥❞ ❛♥♦t❤❡r s❤❛r❦ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ❛s❦❡❞ ❢♦r ❤✐s
❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ✉♥t✐❧ ❡✐t❤❡r ❛❧❧ s❤❛r❦s ❞❡❝✐❞❡ ♥♦t t♦ ❡❛t ♦r ❛t ❧❡❛st ♦♥❡ ❡❛ts✳
❚ ♦ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❜❡tt❡r ❤♦✇ t❤❡ ❣❛♠❡ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣s ✇❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ❛ s❝❡♥❛r✐♦ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡
❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ❢r♦♠ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✼✳✶ ✿
✶✳ ❘♦✉♥❞ ✶✿ ❙❤❛r❦ ✸ ✐s s❛♠♣❧❡❞✳ ❍❡ ❞❡❝✐❞❡s ♥♦t t♦ ❡❛t✳ ❙❤❛r❦ ✷ ✐s s❛♠♣❧❡❞ ❛♥❞
❤❡ ❞❡❝✐❞❡s t♦ ❡❛t✳ ❚❤❡ r♦✉♥❞ ✐s ✜♥✐s❤❡❞✳
✷✳ ❘♦✉♥❞ ✷✿ ❙❤❛r❦ ✶ ✐s s❛♠♣❧❡❞✳ ❍❡ ❞❡❝✐❞❡s ❡❛t✳ ❚❤❡ r♦✉♥❞ ✐s ✜♥✐s❤❡❞
✸✳ ❘♦✉♥❞ ✸✿ ❙❤❛r❦ ✹ ✐s s❛♠♣❧❡❞✳ ❍❡ ❞❡❝✐❞❡s ♥♦t ❡❛t✳ ❙❤❛r❦ ✶ ✐s s❛♠♣❧❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❤❡
❡❛ts✳ ❚❤❡ r♦✉♥❞ ✐s ✜♥✐s❤❡❞
✹✳ ❘♦✉♥❞ ✸✿ ❙❤❛r❦ ✷ ✐s s❛♠♣❧❡❞✳ ❍❡ ❞❡❝✐❞❡s t♦ ❡❛t✳ ❚❤❡ r♦✉♥❞ ✐s ✜♥✐s❤❡❞✳
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ t♦①✐❝ ♣✐❡❝❡ ❤❛s ❜❡❡♥ ❡❛t❡♥ t❤❡ ❣❛♠❡ ❡♥❞s✳
❋ ♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣❛②♦✛ ❤✐st♦r② ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✼✳✶ ✱ ✇❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❛t ✐♥ ❘♦✉♥❞ ✶ ♦♥❧② t❤❡
✸r❞ s❤❛r❦ ✐s ❛✇❛r❞❡❞ t❤❡ ❇ r❡✇❛r❞ ✭❢♦r ♥♦t ❡❛t✐♥❣✮✳ ❙❤❛r❦ ✶ ❛♥❞ ✹ ❞♦ ♥♦t r❡❝❡✐✈❡ ❛♥②
♣♦✐♥ts ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡② ❞✐❞ ♥♦t ❣❡t ❛ ❝❤❛♥❝❡ ✭s❤❛r❦ ✷ ✇❛s ♣✐❝❦❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❞❡❝✐❞❡❞ t♦ ❡❛t✮✳
❚❤✐s ♣❛②♦✛ s❝❤❡♠❡ r❡s❡♠❜❧❡s t❤❛t ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✇❤♦ ❞♦ ♥♦t tr❛❞❡ ✈❡r② ♦❢t❡♥ ♦r ❛r❡
♥♦t ❛❜❧❡ t♦ tr❛❞❡ ❞✉❡ t♦ ♠❛r❦❡t ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ✳ ❆ ❣❛♠❡ st♦♣s✱ ❛s ✐t ❞✐❞ ✐♥ ❘♦✉♥❞ ✹✱ ✇❤❡♥

✼✳✷✳ ❚❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✶✼✼
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✼✳✶✿ ❙❤❛r❦ r❡✇❛r❞ str✉❝t✉r❡ ❢♦r ❡✈❡r② r♦✉♥❞
❘❡✇❛r❞s ❙❤❛r❦ ✶ ❙❤❛r❦ ✷ ❙❤❛r❦ ✸ ❙❤❛r❦ ✹
❘♦✉♥❞ ✶ ✵ ❆ ❇ ✵
❘♦✉♥❞ ✷ ❆ ❆ ❇ ✵
❘♦✉♥❞ ✸ ❆✰❆ ❆ ❇ ❇
❘♦✉♥❞ ✹ ❆✰❆ ❆✰❩ ❇ ❇
t❤❡ t♦①✐❝ ♣❛rt ✐s ❡❛t❡♥ ✭s✐♥❝❡ ❛❢t❡r✇❛r❞s ♣♦✐♥ts ❛r❡✱ ♦♥ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡✱ ❞✐str✐❜✉t❡❞ ❡q✉❛❧❧②✮
♦r ✇❤❡♥ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ s❤❛r❦s ❞❡❝✐❞❡ ♥♦t t♦ ❡❛t✳ ș❢ ❛ ❣❛♠❡ r❡❛❝❤❡s ❛ r♦✉♥❞ ✇❤❡r❡ ♥♦❜♦❞②
❡❛ts ❛♥②♠♦r❡ t❤❡♥ ❛❧❧ s❤❛r❦s r❡❝❡✐✈❡ ♣❛②♦✛ ❇ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❣❛♠❡ ❡♥❞s✳ ❲❤❡♥ ❛ ❣❛♠❡ ❡♥❞s
t❤❡ s❤❛r❦s r❡❝❡✐✈❡ t❤❡✐r ♣❛②♦✛s✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ♣❛②♦✛s ❛❝❝✉♠✉❧❛t❡ ❞✉r✐♥❣ ♠✉❧t✐♣❧❡ ❣❛♠❡s✳
❲ ❡ ❤❛✈❡ ❞❡s✐❣♥❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❜✉✐❧❞ ❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r s✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞ ❡♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t ✇❤❡r❡ ♣r♦❣r❛♠s
s✐♠✉❧❛t❡ t❤❡ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ♦❢ s❤❛r❦s✳ ❙❤❛r❦s✱ ❧✐❦❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❞♦✱ ✉s❡ s✐♠♣❧❡ t❤✉♠❜✲r✉❧❡s
t♦ ♠❛❦❡ t❤❡✐r ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s✳ ❊❛❝❤ s❤❛r❦ ❦ ❤❛s ❛♥ ❛rr❛② ♦❢ r✉❧❡s✱ ❡❛❝❤ ❢♦r♠❡❞ ❜② t✇♦
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs Rulek(H,S)✳ ❍ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ts t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ♣♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t
t❤❡ s❤❛r❦ ❝❛♥ ❡❛t✳ ❙ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ts t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ♣✐❡❝❡s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❛✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡
✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ s❤❛r❦ s❤♦✉❧❞ st♦♣ ❡❛t✐♥❣✳ ❉✉r✐♥❣ ❛ ❣❛♠❡✱ ❛ s❤❛r❦✬s ♦♥❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s
t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ♣♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❧❡❢t t♦ ❡❛t✳ ❆ s❤❛r❦ ✉s✐♥❣ Rule(3,2) ✐♠♣❧✐❡s ❤❡ ✇✐❧❧
❡❛t ❛ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ♦❢ ✸ ♣♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❛♥❞ ✇✐❧❧ st♦♣ ❡❛t✐♥❣ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ❛t ♠♦st
✷ ♣✐❡❝❡s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t st✐❧❧ ❛✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡✳
❆ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❧❛sts ❢♦r ❑ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❣❛♠❡s ✭✉s✉❛❧❧② K >100 ✮✳ ❆t t❤❡ ❜❡❣✐♥✲
♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❡❛❝❤ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛❧❧ s❤❛r❦s st❛rt ✇✐t❤ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ (M+1)2♣♦ss✐❜❧❡ r✉❧❡s✿ ❢r♦♠
✭✵✱✵✮✱✭✵✱✶✮ t♦ ✭▼✱▼✮✷✳ ❚❤❡ s❤❛r❦s ❛ss✐❣♥ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s t♦ ❡❛❝❤ r✉❧❡✳ ❆t t❤❡ st❛rt ♦❢
❡❛❝❤ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥✱ ❛❧❧ s❤❛r❦s✬ r✉❧❡s ❤❛✈❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t②
P(Rule(x,y)) =1
(M+1)2. ✭✼✳✶✮
❆❢t❡r ❡❛❝❤ ❣❛♠❡ s❤❛r❦s r❡❝❡✐✈❡ t❤❡✐r ♣❛②♦✛s ❛♥❞ ✉♣❞❛t❡ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② ♦❢ t❤❡✐r
r✉❧❡s✳ ❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ s❤❛r❦ ❦ ❤❛s ✉s❡❞ Rulek(3,2) ❛♥❞ r❡❝❡✐✈❡❞ ❛ ♣❛②♦✛ ♦❢ Gk✳ ❚❤❡
s❤❛r❦ ✇✐❧❧ ❛❞❞ t❤❡ ♣❛②♦✛ Gk t♦ t❤❡ r✉❧❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② ❛♥❞ ♥♦r♠❛❧✐③❡ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s
♦❢ ❛❧❧ ♦❢ ❤✐s r✉❧❡s✳
P(Rulek(3,2)) =P(Rulek(3,2))+Gk ✭✼✳✷✮
S=/summationdisplay
x,yP(Rulek(x,y)),∀x,y ✭✼✳✸✮
P(Rulek(x,y)) =P(Rulek(x,y))
S,∀x,y ✭✼✳✹✮
❆t t❤❡ st❛rt ♦❢ ❛ ♥❡✇ ❣❛♠❡ ❛❧❧ s❤❛r❦s ❝❤♦♦s❡ ❛ r✉❧❡ t❤❛t t❤❡② ✉s❡✳ ❚❤✐s r✉❧❡
✐s r❛♥❞♦♠❧② ❞r❛✇♥ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ s❤❛r❦✬s ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ r✉❧❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s✳ ❚❤❡ ♠♦r❡
✷▼ ✐s t❤❡ t♦t❛❧ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ♣♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❛✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ✐♥ ❡❛❝❤ ❣❛♠❡

✶✼✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✼✳ ❚❤❡ s❤❛r❦ ❣❛♠❡✿ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ✇✐t❤ ❜ ♦✉♥❞❡❞ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ②
♣❛ ② ♦✛ ❛ r✉❧❡ ✇✐♥s t❤❡ ♠♦r❡ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡ r✉❧❡ ✇✐❧❧ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❝♦♥s❡✲
q✉❡♥ t❧② t❤❡ ♠♦r❡ ♦❢t❡♥ t❤❡ s❤❛r❦ ✇✐❧❧ ✉s❡ t❤❛t r✉❧❡✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ❝❛♥♥♦t
❜ ❡ ✶ ♦r ✵ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ r✉❧❡s ❛r❡ t❛❦ ❡♥ ✐♥ t♦ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤✐s t ②♣ ❡ ♦❢
r❡✐♥❢♦r❝❡♠❡♥ t✲❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣✱ s❤❛r❦s ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❛❞❛♣t t♦ ❡①tr❡♠❡ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥ ✭❧✐❦ ❡ s✉❞❞❡♥
❝ ❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ str✉❝t✉r❡s✮✳ ❲❤❡♥ ♠❛❦✐♥❣ ❛ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥✱ ❛ s❤❛r❦ ❤❛s ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ ♣✐❡❝❡
♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✿ t❤❡ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ♣✐❡❝❡s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❧❡❢t✳ ❚❤❡ s❤❛r❦s✱ ❧✐❦ ❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ❞♦ ♥♦t
❡✈ ❡♥ ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❣❛♠❡✳ ❲❤❛t t❤❡② ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ✐s t❤❡ r❡s✉❧t ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ❛❝t✐♦♥s
❛t t❤❡ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❣❛♠❡✳ șt ✐s ✇ ♦rt❤ str❡ss✐♥❣ t❤❛t s❤❛r❦s ❝❛♥♥♦t ❞✐st✐♥❣✉✐s❤ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥
t♦ ①✐❝ ❛♥❞ t♦ ①✐❝✲♣❛rts✳ ❋ ♦r ❛❧❧ t❤❡② ❦♥♦ ✇✱ t❤❡ ♠❡❛t ❝♦✉❧❞ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ♦♥❡ ♣✐❡❝❡
♦❢ t♦ ①✐❝ ♠❡❛t ♦r t❤❡ r❡✇ ❛r❞s ❝♦✉❧❞ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ ❡✈ ❡r② ❣❛♠❡ ✭♦r ❡✈ ❡♥ ❡✈ ❡r② r♦✉♥❞✮✳ ❙❤❛r❦s
❝❛♥ ♦♥❧② ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡ ♦✉t❝♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✭t❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡ ❡♥❞✲♦❢✲❣❛♠❡ s❝♦r❡ ●✮✳
❚❤❡ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ ♦❢ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ t❤❡② ✉s❡ ✐s r❡✐♥❢♦r❝❡♠❡♥ t✲❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣✱ ❛♥❞ ✐t ✐s ♠♦ ❞❡❧✲❢r❡❡✳ ❚❤❡
❣♦❛❧ ♦❢ t❤✐s ✇ ♦r❦ ✐s t♦ s❡❡ ✐❢ ❝♦♠♣ ❡t✐t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♠♦r❡ ♣r♦✜t✱ ❧✐❦ ❡ ✐t r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱
❞r✐✈ ❡s ♦✉t ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❛♥❞ ♠❛❦ ❡s t❤❡ ❜ ❡st ✉s ♦✉t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ r❡s♦✉r❝❡s
✭❛❧❧ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♠❡❛t ✐s ❡❛t❡♥✮✳
❚❤❡ ✐♥ t✉✐t✐✈ ❡ s♦❧✉t✐♦♥ t♦ ♦✉r ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✐s t♦ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❡❛t✐♥❣
t❤❡ ♥❡①t ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❡❛t✳ ❚❤✐s ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❊ ♦❢ ❡❛t✐♥❣✱ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛t❡❞ ✐❢ ❛ s❤❛r❦
❤❛s t❤❡ ❝ ❤❛♥❝❡ t♦ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ t♦ ❡❛t✱ ✉s❡s t❤❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ str✉❝t✉r❡ ✭❆ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♠❡❛t✱ ❩ t♦ ①✐❝
♠❡❛t ❛♥❞ ❇ ❢♦r ♥♦t ❡❛t✐♥❣✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ✭▲✮ ♦❢ r❡♠❛✐♥✐♥❣ ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t✳ ❊ ✐s
❝♦♠♣✉t❡❞ ❛s t❤❡ s✉♠ ♦❢ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❡❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣✐❡❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞
✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❡❛t✐♥❣ ❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥ ❧❡ss t❤❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ ❢♦r ♥♦t ❡❛t✐♥❣✳
E=Z
L+((L−1)∗A)
L−B ✭✼✳✺✮
ș❢ t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❡❛t✐♥❣✸✭❊✮ ✐s ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ t❤❡♥ t❤❡ s❤❛r❦ s❤♦✉❧❞ ❡❛t t❤❡
❝✉rr❡♥ t ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❡❛t✱ ♦t❤❡r✇✐s❡ ❤❡ s❤♦✉❧❞ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ ♥♦ t♦ ❡❛t✳ ❚❤❡ ❊ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡
❝♦♠♣✉t❡❞ ♦♥❧② ✐❢ ✇ ❡ ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ str✉❝t✉r❡ ✭❆✱❇✱❩✮✳ ❆s ✐♥ r❡❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✱
t❤❡s❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛s ❛r❡ ✉♥❦♥♦ ✇♥ t♦ s❤❛r❦s✳ ❆ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ♠❛❞❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ str✉❝t✉r❡
✭t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✮ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❧❡❛r♥❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❇❛ ② ❡s✐❛♥✲t ②♣ ❡ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞ ✭ ③ ❛ ②③❛♥✲▲❡◆❡st♦✉r ✱ ✷✵✶✷ ✮✳
❙✉❝ ❤ ❛♥ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤ ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ❜ ❡ ❢❛st ❜✉t ✐t ✇ ♦✉❧❞ r❡q✉✐r❡ ❛ ❢♦r♠❛❧ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡
♠♦ ❞❡❧✳ ❲❤❡♥ t❤❡ ❣❛♠❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡s ✭❡✳❣✳ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥♥♦ ✈ ❛t✐♦♥✮ t❤❡ s❤❛r❦s ❤❛ ✈ ❡
t♦ ❧❡❛r♥ ❛ ♥❡✇ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥♥♦t ❛❞❛♣t ❜ ② t❤❡♠s❡❧✈ ❡s✳
❲ ❡ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ r❡✐♥❢♦r❝❡♠❡♥ t✲❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐t ♠✐♠✐❝s ❜ ❡tt❡r t❤❡ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ♦❢ r❡❛❧
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❡ ♦✉t❝♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✭r❡t✉r♥s✮ ❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦
❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❡✐r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❤♦r✐③♦♥s ✭t❤❡ ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❧❡❢t✮✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❛t ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ❝❛♥ t✉r♥ ♦✉t t♦ ❜ ❡ ✐♥✢❛t❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ ❧♦ ♦s❡ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❢❛st✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡
t❤❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ ❩ ❢♦r t❤❡ t♦ ①✐❝ ♠❡❛t ❝❛♥ ❡q✉❛t❡ t♦ ❛ r✐s❦ ♣r❡♠✐✉♠ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ♣❧❛❝❡ ♦♥
r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t✳ ◆♦ ✇ ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ s❡❡ ✐❢✱ ❛❢t❡r s✉✣❝✐❡♥ t r❡♣ ❡t✐t✐♦♥s✱ s❤❛r❦s ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ r❡❛❝ ❤
❛♥ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ✭❡❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♠♦st ♠❡❛t ✇✐t❤♦✉t t❤❡ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣❛rt✮✳
✸ș♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡ ✇ ❡ ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t t❤❡r❡ ✐s ♦♥❧② ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ ♣✐❡❝❡ ♦❢ t♦ ①✐❝ ♠❡❛t✳ ●❡♥❡r❛❧✐s❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡

✼✳✸✳ ❘❡s✉❧ts ✶✼✾
✼✳✸ ❘❡s✉❧ts
ș♥ ♦✉r ✜rst t❡sts ✇ ❡ ✉s❡ s✐♠♣❧❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ str✉❝t✉r❡s ✇✐t❤ ❝❧❡❛r ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ s♦❧✉t✐♦♥s
❛♥❞ ❜ ❡st str❛t❡❣✐❡s✳ ❊✈ ❡r② s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ♣r❡❝❡❞❡❞ ❜ ② ❛ t❛❜❧❡✱ ❧✐❦ ❡ t❤❡ ♦♥❡ ❜ ❡❧♦ ✇✱
❝♦♥ t❛✐♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ♦❢ t❤❡ t❡st✳
❚❤✐s ✜rst t❡st s❡ts t❤❡ ❧❛st ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❛s t❤❡ t♦ ①✐❝ ♦♥❡✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡r❡ ✐s
❛♥ ♦❜ ✈✐♦✉s s♦❧✉t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❛❧❧ s❤❛r❦s s❤♦✉❧❞ ❛❞♦♣t✿ ❡❛t t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t
♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ ❛♥❞ st♦♣ ❡❛t✐♥❣ ✐❢ t❤❡r❡ ✐s ♦♥❡ ♣✐❡❝❡ ❧❡❢t✳ ❚❤❡ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ r✉❧❡✱ t❤❛t s❤❛r❦s ❛r❡
❜ ❡st ♦✛ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s✐♥❣✱ ✐s r✉❧❡ ✭✸✱✶✮✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡✱ t❤❡ ♠❛ ❥♦r✐t ② ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ✐s t❤❡ ❜ ❡st ❛♥❞ ✐t
❛ss✉r❡s ❛ ◆❛s❤ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❝♦✐♥❝✐❞❡s ✇✐t❤ ❛❧❧ r❡s♦✉r❝❡s ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ✉s❡❞✳
❯s✐♥❣ ♦✉r ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✇ ❡ r✉♥ t❤✐s s❝❡♥❛r✐♦ ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❜ ❡✲
❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ s❤❛r❦s✳ ❆s ❞❡♣✐❝t❡❞ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✼✳✷ ✱ ❞✉r✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✜rst ❢❡✇ ❤ ✉♥❞r❡❞ r♦✉♥❞s✱
s❤❛r❦s ❞♦ ♥♦t ❛ ✈ ♦✐❞ t❤❡ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣❛rt ✭❡♠♣❤❛s✐③❡❞ ❛s t❤❡ r❡❞ ❧✐♥❡✮✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛
♦❢ t❤❡ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣❛rt ✐s ✲✶✵ t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❝✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ ♦❢ s❤❛r❦s ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡s✳ ❊✈ ❡r②
t✐♠❡ ❛ s❤❛r❦s ❜✐t❡s t❤❡ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣❛rt ❤❡ ♣ ❡♥❛❧✐③❡s t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡s♣ ♦♥❞✐♥❣ r✉❧❡ ❤❡ ✉s❡❞✳ ❆s
❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✼✳✸ ✱ ❛❢t❡r s♦♠❡ t✐♠❡ t❤❡ ❝✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ ♦❢ s❤❛r❦s r✐s❡s ❛♥❞
❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡s t♦ r✐s❡✳
0 200 400 600 800 10000 1 2 3 4Amount eaten out of 4 pieces
Round
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✼✳✷✿ ❚ ❡st ✶✳ ✬ ♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❡❛t❡♥0 200 400 600 800 10000 50 100 150Average shark wealth
Round
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✼✳✸✿ ❚ ❡st ✶✳ ❚❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ s❤❛r❦s✬
❝✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛
❊✈ ❡♥ t✉❛❧❧② ❛❧❧ s❤❛r❦s ❛rr✐✈ ❡ ❛t ❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ✇❤❡r❡ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜✲
❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ r✉❧❡ ✭✸✱✶✮ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤❡s ❡①♣ ♦♥❡♥ t✐❛❧❧② t♦ ✶ ✭❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❛❧❧ ♦t❤❡r ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s
❛♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤ ③❡r♦✮✳ ❲ ❡ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦✉t t❤❛t s❤❛r❦s ❧❡❛r♥ t♦ ❛ ✈ ♦✐❞ r✉❧❡s t❤❛t ♠❛❦ ❡ t❤❡♠ ❡❛t
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✼✳✷✿ ❚ ❡st ✶✳ ❈♦♥ t❡①t ❛♥❞ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ str✉❝t✉r❡
◆r✳ s❤❛r❦s ◆r✳ ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥s ✬ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣✐❡❝❡ ✬ ❛ ② ♦✛ ❆ ❇ ❩
✶✵ ✹ ✹ ✶ ✵ ✲✶✵

✶✽✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✼✳ ❚❤❡ s❤❛r❦ ❣❛♠❡✿ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ✇✐t❤ ❜ ♦✉♥❞❡❞ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ②
t❤❡ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣❛rt✱ ❧✐❦ ❡ Rule(∀,0) ✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r t❤❡② ❛❧s♦ ❞✐s❝❛r❞ s✉❜ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ r✉❧❡s✱ ❧✐❦ ❡
(1,∀) ♦r(2,∀) ✱ t❤❛t ❡✈ ❡♥ t❤♦✉❣❤ ♠❛❦ ❡ t❤❡♠ ❛ ✈ ♦✐❞ t❤❡ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣❛rt ❛r❡ ❧✐♠✐t✐♥❣ t❤❡✐r
♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ♦❢ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡✳ ș♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✼✳✹ ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❧♦♥❣✲t❡r♠ r❡s✉❧ts ♦❢
❚ ❡st ✶✳ ❈♦♥ ✈ ❡r❣❡♥❝❡ t♦ t❤❡ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ s♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ✭✇❤❡r❡ t❤❡ s②st❡♠ st❛ ②s ✐♥ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠✮
✐s ❡✈✐❞❡♥ t✳
0 5000 15000 250000 1 2 3 4Amount eaten out of 4 pieces
Round
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✼✳✹✿ ❚ ❡st ✶✳ ❆ ♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❡❛t❡♥ ✭✸✵✵✵✵ r♦✉♥❞s✮
❚❤❡ s❡❝♦♥❞ t❡st t❛❦ ❡s ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ♦❢ ❚ ❡st ✶ ❛♥❞ ❝ ❤❛♥❣❡s ♦♥❧② t❤❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛
❢♦r ♥♦t✲❡❛t✐♥❣✱ ❢r♦♠ ❇❂✵ t♦ ❇❂✶✳ ❚❤✐s t✐♠❡✱ t❤❡ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡s ♦❢ ❡❛t✐♥❣ ♦r ♥♦t ♣r♦ ❞✉❝❡
t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛✳ ș♥ t✉✐t✐✈ ❡❧② ✇ ❡ t❤✐♥❦ t❤❛t ❛ str❛t❡❣② ♦❢ ❡❛t✐♥❣ ❡✈ ❡r②t❤✐♥❣ ✭❡①❝❡♣t
t❤❡ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣✐❡❝❡✮ ♦r ♥♦t ❡❛t✐♥❣ ❛t ❛❧❧ ❛r❡ ❡q✉✐✈ ❛❧❡♥ t✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ r✉❧❡s ✇ ♦✉❧❞
❜ ❡ ✭✵✱∀ ✮ ❢♦r ♥❡✈ ❡r ❡❛t✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ✭✸✱✶✮ ❢♦r ❡❛t✐♥❣ ❡✈ ❡r②t❤✐♥❣✳ ❚❤❡ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡s❡
r✉❧❡s ✐s ♥♦t ❡✈✐❞❡♥ t ❛♥❞ ✐t ❝r❡❛t❡s ❛♥ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝ ✇❤❡r❡ ❛❧❧ ♦r ♥♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡
♣✐❡❝❡s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❛r❡ ❡❛t❡♥✳ ❲ ❡ r❡♠✐♥❞ t❤❛t ❛ s❤❛r❦ ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② ❣❡ts t❤❡ ♥♦t✲❡❛t✐♥❣ ♣❛ ② ♦✛
♦♥❧② ✇❤❡♥ ❤❡ ❤❛s t❤❡ ❝ ❤❛♥❝❡ t♦ ❞❡❝✐❞❡ ♥♦t t♦ ❡❛t✳ ▲❡t ✉s ✐♠❛❣✐♥❡ ❛ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤❡r❡
✾ ♦❢ t❤❡ s❤❛r❦s ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ t♦ ♥♦t ❡❛t✱ Rule(0,∀) ✱ ❛♥❞ ✶ s❤❛r❦ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡s t♦ ❡❛t ❡✈ ❡r②t❤✐♥❣
✉♣ t♦ t❤❡ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣❛rt✱ Rule(3,1) ✳ ❊✈ ❡r② r♦✉♥❞ t❤❡ ❣r❡❡❞② s❤❛r❦ ✇✐❧❧ ❡✈ ❡♥ t✉❛❧❧② ❣❡t
❤✐s t✉r♥ ❛♥❞ ✇✐❧❧ ❡❛t ❛ ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❡❛t✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ❤✐s ♣❛ ② ♦✛ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ♦❢ ✸ ✐♥ ❡✈ ❡r②
❣❛♠❡ ✭✸ ♣✐❡❝❡s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❡❛❝ ❤ ✇✐t❤ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ ❆❂✶✮✳ ❚❤❡ s❤❛r❦s t❤❛t ❞❡❝✐❞❡ t♦ ❛❜st❛✐♥
✇✐❧❧ r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡ t❤❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ ❇❂✶ ♦♥❧② ✐❢ t❤❡② ❣❡t ♣✐❝ ❦ ❡❞✱ ❛♥❞ r❡❢✉s❡ t♦ ❡❛t✱ ❜ ❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡
❣r❡❡❞② s❤❛r❦ ❣❡ts ❤✐s t✉r♥✳ ❙✐♥❝❡ t❤❡ ❞r❛ ✇s ❛r❡ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠ ❛♥❞ t❤❡r❡ ✐s ♦♥❧② ❛ s❤❛r❦
t❤❛t ❡❛ts✱ ❛ ♥♦t✲❡❛t✐♥❣ s❤❛r❦ ✇✐❧❧ ❤❛ ✈ ❡✱ ✐♥ ❡✈ ❡r② r♦✉♥❞✱ t❤❡ ❝ ❤❛♥❝❡ t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❤✐s ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡
✇✐t❤ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✺✵✪ ✭✐♥ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ♦t❤❡r ❝❛s❡s t❤❡ ❡❛t✐♥❣ s❤❛r❦ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ♣✐❝ ❦ ❡❞ ❜ ❡❢♦r❡
❤✐♠ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ r♦✉♥❞ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ♦ ✈ ❡r✮✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡❞
❜ ② ❛ ♥♦♥✲❡❛t✐♥❣ s❤❛r❦✱ ✐♥ ❛ ❣❛♠❡✱ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ♦❢ 3∗B∗50% = 1 .5 ❚❤ ✉s✱ ❛ ♥♦♥✲❡❛t✐♥❣
s❤❛r❦ ❤❛s t❤❡ ✐♥❝❡♥ t✐✈ ❡ t♦ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ t❤❡ ❡❛t✲❛❧❧ r✉❧❡✳ ❲❤❡♥ ❛ s❤❛r❦ s✇✐t❝ ❤❡s t♦ t❤❡
❡❛t✲❛❧❧ r✉❧❡ t ✇ ♦ t❤✐♥❣s ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥✿
✶✳ ▼♦r❡ s❤❛r❦s ❝♦♠♣ ❡t❡ ❢♦r ❡✈ ❡r② ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❡❛t✳ ❚❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡
❡❛t✲❛❧❧ s❤❛r❦s ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡s ✭❜✉t ✐s st✐❧❧ ❜✐❣❣❡r t❤❛♥ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ ♦❢

✼✳✸✳ ❘❡s✉❧ts ✶✽✶
t❤❡ ♥♦♥✲❡❛t✐♥❣ s❤❛r❦s✮✳
✷✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ t ✇ ♦ s❤❛r❦s ❝❛♥ ❡❛t ❛ ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❡❛t✱ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ❛ ♥♦♥✲❡❛t✐♥❣
s❤❛r❦ t♦ ❣❡t t❤❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ ❜ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❞r♦♣ ❜ ❡❧♦ ✇ ✺✵✪✳ ❚❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡
♥♦♥✲❡❛t✐♥❣ s❤❛r❦s ✇✐❧❧ ❛❧s♦ ❞r♦♣✳
❚❤❡ ♠♦r❡ s❤❛r❦s s✇✐t❝ ❤ t♦ Rule(3,1) t❤❡ ♠♦r❡ ❝♦♠♣ ❡t✐t✐♦♥ t❤❡r❡ ✐s ❢♦r ❡❛t✐♥❣
t❤❡ ♠❡❛t✳ ❚❤❡ ♠♦r❡ ❝♦♠♣ ❡t✐t✐♦♥ t❤❡r❡ ✐s t❤❡ ❧❡ss ✐s t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ♣❛ ② ♦✛✳ ❊✈ ❡♥ t✉❛❧❧②
t❤❡ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥ r❡✈ ❡rs❡s ❛♥❞ ✾ s❤❛r❦s ✇✐❧❧ ✉s❡ Rule(3,1) ❛♥❞ ♦♥❧② ♦♥❡ s❤❛r❦
✇✐❧❧ ✉s❡ t❤❡ ♥♦t✲❡❛t r✉❧❡ Rule(0,∀) ✳ ❲❤❡♥ t❤✐s ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥s t❤❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❢♦r ❛
❡❛t✲❛❧❧ s❤❛r❦ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ s♦ ❧♦ ✇ t❤❛t t❤❡② ✇✐❧❧ ❛❣❛✐♥ st❛rt ✉s✐♥❣ ♥♦✲❡❛t r✉❧❡s✳ ❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡
✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡s ✼✳✺ ❛♥❞ ✼✳✻ t❤❛t ❡✈ ❡♥ ❛❢t❡r ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛❜❧❡ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ r♦✉♥❞s s❤❛r❦s st✐❧❧
❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡✱ ❛s ❛ ❣r♦✉♣✱ t♦ ❡❛t ♥♦t❤✐♥❣✳
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 50000 1 2 3 4Amount eaten out of 4 pieces
Round
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✼✳✺✿ ❚ ❡st ✷✳ ❂ ♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❡❛t❡♥
✭✺✵✵✵ r♦✉♥❞s✮0 5000 15000 250000 1 2 3 4Amount eaten out of 4 pieces
Round
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✼✳✻✿ ❚ ❡st ✷✳ ❂ ♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❡❛t❡♥
✭✸✵✵✵✵ r♦✉♥❞s✮
❚❤✐s ♣❛ ② ♦✛ str✉❝t✉r❡ ❝r❡❛t❡s ❛♥ ❡♥ ✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥ t ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈ ❡ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ✭❛❧❧
❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♠❡❛t ♣❛rts ❛r❡ ❡❛t❡♥ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣❛rt ❛ ✈ ♦✐❞❡❞✮ ❜✉t ✐t ❛❧s♦ ♦✛❡rs t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ②
❢♦r s❤❛r❦s t♦ ❞❡♣❛rt ❢r♦♠ t❤✐s ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ✭✐♥ t❤❡✐r s❡❛r❝ ❤ ❢♦r ♠♦r❡ ♣r♦✜t✮✳ ❚❤❡
❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ♦✉t❝♦♠❡ ✢✉❝t✉❛t❡s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❡❛t✐♥❣ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ♠❡❛t ❛♥❞ ♥♦t ❡❛t✐♥❣ ❛t ❛❧❧✳ ș♥
t❤❡✐r s❡❛r❝ ❤ ❢♦r ❛ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ ✐t ✐s ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ t❤❛t s❤❛r❦s ❧❡❛ ✈ ❡ ✉♥ t♦✉❝ ❤❡❞ ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡
♣r♦✜ts✳ ❲❤❡♥ t❤❡② ❛❧❧ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ ♥♦t t♦ ❡❛t t❤❡② ❡❛❝ ❤ ❣❡t ❇ ♣ ♦✐♥ ts ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ✉♥ t♦✉❝ ❤❡❞
♠❡❛t ✐s ✇ ♦rt❤ ✸✯❇✳ ❚❤✐s s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥ s❤♦ ✇s ❤♦ ✇ ❛ ❧♦ ❝❛❧❧② ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ s♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ✭t❤❡ s❤❛r❦s
❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ♥♦t t♦ ❡❛t✮ ♣r♦ ❞✉❝❡s ❛♥ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ s✉❜ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ s♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ✭r❡s♦✉r❝❡s ❛r❡ ♥♦t
✉s❡❞✱ ❛❧❧ ♣✐❡❝❡s ♦❢ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ♠❡❛t ❛r❡ ✉♥ t♦✉❝ ❤❡❞✮✳
❚❤❡ ❣❛♠❡ ❝②❝❧❡s ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉♦✉s❧② ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡ t ✇ ♦ ❡①tr❡♠❡ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥s✿ ❛❧❧ s❤❛r❦s tr②
t♦ ❡❛t ❡✈ ❡r②t❤✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❛❧❧ s❤❛r❦s ❞♦ ♥♦t ❡❛t✳ ❚❤❡✐r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✐s r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♣r♦✜t
❞r✐✈ ❡♥✳ ❲ ❡ ❡q✉❛t❡ t❤✐s ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r t♦ t❤❛t ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇❤♦ ♠✐❣r❛t❡ ❢r♦♠ ❛ss❡t t♦ ❛ss❡t✱
♠❛r❦ ❡t t♦ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦r str❛t❡❣② t♦ str❛t❡❣② ✐♥ s❡❛r❝ ❤ ❢♦r ❤✐❣❤❡r ♣r♦✜ts✳
❲ ❡ ♥♦ ✇ ❡①t❡♥❞ ❚ ❡st ✷ ❛♥❞ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ ❢♦r ♥♦t ❡❛t✐♥❣ t♦ ❇❂✷✳ ❚❤❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛

✶✽✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✼✳ ❚❤❡ s❤❛r❦ ❣❛♠❡✿ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ✇✐t❤ ❜ ♦✉♥❞❡❞ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ②
❢♦r ♥♦t✲❡❛t✐♥❣ ✐s ♥♦ ✇ ❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ ❢♦r ❡❛t✐♥❣✳ ▲✐❦ ❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s t❡st✱
✐❢ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ s❤❛r❦s ❞❡❝✐❞❡ ♥♦t t♦ ❡❛t t❤❡② ❝❛♥ ❛❧❧ ❣❡t ❇❂✷ ♣ ♦✐♥ ts✳ ❨ ❡t ✐❢ ♦♥❡ s❤❛r❦
s✇✐t❝ ❤❡s t♦ ❡❛t✐♥❣ ❤❡ ✇✐❧❧ r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡ ❛ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ ♦❢ ✸ ✭❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ❤❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❡❛t ❜ ② ❤✐♠s❡❧❢ ❛❧❧ ✸
♣ ♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t✮✳ ❚❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐❧❧ ❝②❝❧❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❡❛t✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ♥♦t ❡❛t✐♥❣✱ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥
❣❧♦❜❛❧ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ ❛♥❞ s✉❜ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ st❛t❡s✳ ❚❤✐s ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✐s r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛♥❞ ✐t ✐s ❞✉❡ t♦ t❤❡
❢❛❝t t❤❛t s❤❛r❦s ❜❛s❡ t❤❡✐r ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ♦♥ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ♣❛ ② ♦✛✳ ❊①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ♣❛ ② ♦✛s ❞❡♣ ❡♥❞
♦♥ t❤❡ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❝ ❤♦s❡♥ ❜ ② ♦t❤❡r ♣❧❛ ② ❡rs✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ❛ s❤❛r❦✬s ❜ ❡st str❛t❡❣② ✐s ✐♣s♦
❢❛❝t✉♠ ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ str❛t❡❣② ♦❢ ♦t❤❡r s❤❛r❦s✳
❲✐t❤ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✐♥ ♠✐♥❞✱ ✇ ❡ ✈✐❡✇ t❤❡ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣✐❡❝❡ ❛s ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡✳ ▼♦r❡
❝❧❡❛r❧② ✱ ❛ s❤❛r❦ ❡❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣✐❡❝❡ ✐s s✐♠✐❧❛r t♦ t❤❡ ✬❜✐❣❣❡st ❢♦ ♦❧✬ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✱ ✇❤♦
❜✉②s ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ❡①❛❝t❧② ✇❤❡♥ ✐t✬s ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❛t ❛ ♣ ❡❛❦✳ ❆s ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡❞✱ s❤❛r❦s ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡
t♦ q✉✐❝ ❦❧② ❧❡❛r♥ t❤❡ ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ✜①❡❞ t♦ ①✐❝ ♠❡❛t ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✇ ❡ r✉♥ ❛
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥✱ ✇✐t❤ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✼✳✸ ✱ ✇❤❡r❡ t❤❡ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥ ✐s ♣❧❛❝❡❞ ✐♥ ❛
r❛♥❞♦♠ ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ ❛t t❤❡ ❜ ❡❣✐♥♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❡❛❝ ❤ ♥❡✇ ❣❛♠❡✳
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 50000 1 2 3 4Amount eaten out of 4 pieces
Round
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✼✳✼✿ ❚ ❡st ✹✳ ✽ ♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❡❛t❡♥0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000−400 −300 −200 −100 0Average shark wealth
Round
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✼✳✽✿ ❚ ❡st ✹✳ ❚❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ s❤❛r❦s✬
❝✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛
❇❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❛♥ ②✇❤❡r❡ s❤❛r❦s r❛♣✐❞❧② ❞✐s❝♦✉♥ t t❤❡✐r
❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ♣❛ ② ♦✛s✳ ❚❤❡② ✜rst ❧❡❛r♥ t♦ ❛ ✈ ♦✐❞ t❤❡ ✹t❤ ♣✐❡❝❡✱ t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ✸r❞ ✉♥ t✐❧ t❤❡②
r❡s♦❧✈ ❡ t♦ ♥♦t ❡❛t✐♥❣ ❛t ❛❧❧✳ ❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡✱ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡s ✼✳✼ ❛♥❞ ✼✳✽ ✱ t❤❛t ❛❢t❡r ✸✵✵✵
r♦✉♥❞s t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❝✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ st❛❜✐❧✐③❡s ❛♥❞ ❛❧❧ s❤❛r❦s ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ ♥♦t t♦ ❡❛t✳ ș♥
t❤✐s s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥ s❤❛r❦s r❡❛❝ ❤ ❛ st❛❜❧❡ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠✳
❲ ❡ ♥♦ ✇ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ ❆ t♦ ✺ ❛♥❞ ❡❛t✐♥❣ ❜ ❡❝♦♠❡s ✈ ❡r② ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡✳ ❙❤❛r❦s
s♦ ♦♥ ❧❡❛r♥ t❤❛t ❡❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✜rst ♣✐❡❝❡ ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❤❛s ❛ ❤✐❣❤❡r ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ t❤❛♥
❡❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ s❡❝♦♥❞ ♣✐❡❝❡✱ ❛♥❞ s♦ ♦♥✳ ❆s ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡❞ ✐♥ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✼✳✾ ✱ s❤❛r❦s st❛❜✐❧✐③❡ t❤❡
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✼✳✸✿ ❚ ❡st ✹✳ ❈♦♥ t❡①t ❛♥❞ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ str✉❝t✉r❡
◆r✳ s❤❛r❦s ◆r✳ ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥s ✽ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣✐❡❝❡ ✽ ❛ ② ♦✛ ❆ ❇ ❩
✶✵ ✹ ❘❛♥❞♦♠ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ✶ ❛♥❞ ✹ ✶ ✵ ✲✶✵

✼✳✹✳ ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s ✶✽✸
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ r✉❧❡s t❤❡② ✉s❡ ❛♥❞ ✇✐❧❧ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ ❡❛❝ ❤ r✉❧❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦rt✐♦♥❛t❡
t♦ ✐t✬s ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ș♥ ❞❡❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ♦r❞❡r ♦❢ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② t❤❡ r✉❧❡s s❤❛r❦s ✉s❡ ❛r❡✿
✶✳ ❊❛t ♥♦t❤✐♥❣
✷✳ ❊❛t ✶ ♣✐❡❝❡ ✭✉♥ t✐❧ ✸ ❛r❡ ❧❡❢t✮✳ ❚❤✐s r✉❧❡ ♠❡❛♥s ❡❛t ♦♥❧② t❤❡ ✜rst ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥ ♦❢
♠❡❛t✳
✸✳ ❊❛t t❤❡ ✜rst ✷ ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥s
✹✳ ❊❛t t❤❡ ✜rst ✸ ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥s
0 5000 10000 15000 200000 1 2 3 4Amount eaten out of 4 pieces
Round
❋✐❣✉r❡ ✼✳✾✿ ❚ ❡st ✺✳ ✲ ♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❡❛t❡♥ ✭✸✵✵✵✵ r♦✉♥❞s✮
ș❢ ✇ ❡ t ✇ ❡❛❦ t❤❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ❡✈ ❡♥ ♠♦r❡✱ ✉s✐♥❣ st♦ ❝ ❤❛st✐❝ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ♦r ♠ ✉❧t✐♣❧❡ t♦ ①✐❝
♣❛rts✱ ✇ ❡ ♦❜t❛✐♥ s✐♠✐❧❛r q✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈ ❡ r❡s✉❧ts✳ ❙❤❛r❦s ✇✐❧❧ ✉♣ ❞❛t❡ t❤❡✐r ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s✱
♦♥ t❤❡ ❧♦♥❣ r✉♥✱ ❛s ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❡❛♥ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ str✉❝t✉r❡✳ ❯s✐♥❣ ✬❚❤❡ ❙❤❛r❦
●❛♠❡✬ ✇ ❡ s❤♦ ✇ t❤❛t ❛ ❣r♦✉♣ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥ ts✱ ✇❤♦ ❞♦ ♥♦t ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ✭t❤❡② ❞♦
♥♦t ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❡ str✉❝t✉r❡ ♦❢ ♣❛ ② ♦✛s✱ t❤❡ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣❛rts ♦r t❤❛t ❛ t♦ ①✐❝ ♣❛rt
❡✈ ❡♥ ❡①✐sts✮✱ ❛♥❞ ✉s❡ r❡✐♥❢♦r❝❡♠❡♥ t✲❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣✱ ♠❛♥❛❣❡ t♦ ❧❡❛r♥ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs✳
▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r ✇ ❡ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦✉t t❤❛t ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ♣r♦✜t✲❞r✐✈ ❡♥ s♦❧✉t✐♦♥s ❞♦ ♥♦t ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡
♦♣t✐♠❛❧ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ♦✉t❝♦♠❡s✳
✼✳✹ ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s
❯s✐♥❣ ❛ t♦ ② ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞ ❤♦ ✇ ❜ ♦✉♥❞❡❞ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ s❤❛r❦s
❝❛♥ ❧❡❛r♥✱ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❡✈ ❡r ❦♥♦ ✇✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❣❛♠❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧✱ t♦ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ str❛t❡❣✐❡s✳ ❚❤✐s
✐s ❛♥ ❛r❣✉♠❡♥ t ❢♦r t❤❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ❡✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ ♥♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❦♥♦ ✇s ✭♦r ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❧❡❛r♥✮ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡ts✳

✶✽✹ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✼✳ ❚❤❡ s❤❛r❦ ❣❛♠❡✿ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ✇✐t❤ ❜ ♦✉♥❞❡❞ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ②
❚❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ❞r✐✈❡r ♦❢ t❤❡ s❤❛r❦s✬ ❛❝t✐♦♥s✱ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ♣❛②♦✛✱ ✇✐❧❧ ✐♥❞✉❝❡ t❤❡♠ t♦
❝❤♦♦s❡ ❛❝t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ♦♥❧② ❧♦❝❛❧❧② ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ ✭♦♥ ❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r r♦✉♥❞ t❤❡ s❤❛r❦ ❣❡ts
❛ ❣♦♦❞ ♣❛②♦✛ ✮✳ ❲❤❡♥ s✉❝❤ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ❛❞♦♣t❡❞ ❜② ❛ ❧❛r❣❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ s❤❛r❦s✱ ❜②
❝❤❛♥❝❡ ♦r ✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥✱ t❤❡ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ r❡s✉❧t ✐s s✉❜♦♣t✐♠❛❧ ✭♠❡❛t✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❝♦✉❧❞ ❤❛✈❡
❜r♦✉❣❤t ♠♦r❡ ♣❛②♦✛✱ ✐s ❧❡❢t ✉♥t♦✉❝❤❡❞✮✳
❈❧♦s❡r t♦ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✱ t❤✐s ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛ ✇❛s ♣❛rt✐❛❧❧② ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❜② ●r♦ss♠❛♥
❛♥❞ ❙t✐❣❧✐t③ ✭ ●r♦ss♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❙t✐❣❧✐t③ ✱ ✶✾✽✵ ✮✳ ❲❤❡♥ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛r❡ ❝❧♦s❡ t♦ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✱
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✲❜❛s❡❞ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❜❡❝♦♠❡s ❧❡ss ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ❛♥❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❧❡❛✈❡ t❤❡
♠❛r❦❡t ✭t❤❡✐r ❧♦❝❛❧ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ s♦❧✉t✐♦♥✮✳ ❚❤❡ ♠♦r❡ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥t ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ❜❡❝♦♠❡s ✭s✉❜✲
♦♣t✐♠❛❧ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ♦✉t❝♦♠❡✮ t❤❡ ♠♦r❡ ❛ttr❛❝t✐✈❡ ✐t ✐s ❢♦r ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ș♥ t❤❡
❧✐❣❤t ♦❢ t❤✐s ♣r♦♦❢✱ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ✈✐❡✇❡❞ ❛s ♠✐♥♦r✐t② ❣❛♠❡s ✇❤❡r❡ t❤❡
r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❝❤♦✐❝❡s t♦ ❜❡ ♠❛❞❡ ❛r❡✿ tr❛❞❡ ❛❝t✐✈❡❧② ♦r ♥♦t tr❛❞❡ ❛t ❛❧❧✳ ❲❤❡♥ ❛❝t✐✈❡
tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✐s ❛❜✉♥❞❛♥t t✇♦ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥s ❝❛♥ ♦❝❝✉r✿
✶✳ ❄r✐❝❡s ✐♥t❡❣r❛t❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❜❡tt❡r ❛♥❞ ❢❛st❡r ✭❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②✮✳ ❚❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ❜❡✲
❝♦♠❡s ♠♦r❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈❡s ❢♦r ❛❝t✐✈❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡✳ ș♥❞❡①
✭♣❛ss✐✈❡✮ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ❜❡❝♦♠❡s ♠♦r❡ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ✭✇❤✐❝❤ ❧❡❛❞s ❛❣❛✐♥ t♦ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②✮✳
❚❤✐s ✐s t❤❡ ♣❛r❛❞♦① ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧❧② ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡ts✳
✷✳ ❄r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈❡s ❢♦r ❛❝t✐✈❡
tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡s ❡✈❡♥ ♠♦r❡✳ ❚❤✐s s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥ ❛♣♣❡❛rs ♦♥❧② ✐♥ s♣❡❝✐❛❧ ❝✐r❝✉♠✲
st❛♥❝❡s✹❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ ❧❡❛❞ t♦ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✳ ❉✉r✐♥❣ t❤❡s❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞s ✭♦❢ ❤✐❣❤ ♠❛r❦❡t
✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②✮ t❤❡✐r ✐s ♥♦ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈❡ ❜❡st str❛t❡❣② ✳ ●♦✐♥❣ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ tr❡♥❞ ♦r ❛❣❛✐♥st
✐t ❝♦✉❧❞ ②✐❡❧❞ s✐♠✐❧❛r ❧❡✈❡❧s ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s✳
❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ❛♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❝❛♥ r❡❝♦❣♥✐③❡ t❤❛t ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛r❡ ✐♥ ❛ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✉s tr❛♥s✐t✐♦♥
❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t st❛t❡ ❛♥❞ ❛♥ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥t st❛t❡✳ ❙✐♥❝❡ ❛♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r✬s ❣♦❛❧ ✐s t♦
♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ ♣r♦✜ts ❤❡ s❤♦✉❧❞ ❛❞♦♣t ❛ str❛t❡❣② ❛s ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝✉rr❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡t
st❛t❡✳ ș♥ ❛♥ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡t ✐t ✐s✱ ✉♣ t♦ ❛ ♣♦✐♥t✱ ❜❡st t♦ ❣♦ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❝r♦✇❞ ✭t❤✉s
❡①♣❧❛✐♥✐♥❣ ♣♦s✐t✐✈❡✲❢❡❡❞❜❛❝❦ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✮✳ ș♥ ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡t ✐t ✐s ❜❡st t♦✿ ❡✐t❤❡r
♥♦t tr❛❞❡ ❛t ❛❧❧ ♦r ❝❤♦♦s❡ ❛ ♣❛ss✐✈❡ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❛♥❞ ♣r♦✜t ❢r♦♠ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ❣r♦✇t❤
✭✐❢ s✉✣❝✐❡♥t✮✳ ❚❤✐s ♠✐①❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t str❛t❡❣② ✐s ♠♦r❡ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ t❤❛♥ ❛♥② ♠♦♥♦✲
str❛t❡❣② ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤ ✭❛❧✇❛②s ❛❝t✐✈❡ ♦r ❛❧✇❛②s ♣❛ss✐✈❡✮ s✐♥❝❡ ✐t ❝❛♣✐t❛❧✐③❡s ❣❛✐♥s ❞✉r✐♥❣
❛❧❧ ♠❛r❦❡t st❛t❡s✳ ❚❤❡ ❦❡② ✐ss✉❡ ❛ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ♣♦s❡s ♥❡①t ✐s✿ ✇❤❡♥ s❤♦✉❧❞
ș s✇✐t❝❤ str❛t❡❣✐❡s✱ ❢r♦♠ ❛ t❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧ str❛t❡❣② t♦ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t❄ ❚❤❡ ❛♥s✇❡r
✐s✿ ✐t ❞❡♣❡♥❞s ♦♥ t❤❡ ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ ♦t❤❡r ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ❚❤✐s r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ r❡❛❧✐③❛t✐♦♥ ✐s t❤❡
s❡❡❞ ❢♦r ✬❜❡❛✉t②✲❝♦♥t❡st✬ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦rs✳ ❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ✐♥ ♦✉r ♠♦❞❡❧✱
✇❤❡r❡ s❤❛r❦s ✉♥✇✐❧❧✐♥❣❧② ♣❧❛② ❜❡❛✉t② ❝♦♥t❡sts ✭s❡❡ ❚ ❡st ✷✮✳ ❚❤✐s r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r✱
♠♦t✐✈ ❛t❡❞ ❜② ♣r♦✜t ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥✱ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡s ❧♦❝❛❧❧② ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ s♦❧✉t✐♦♥s ❢♦r ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
✭♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ♣r♦✜ts✮ ❜✉t ✐t ❞♦❡s ♥♦t ❛ss✉r❡ t❤❛t ♠❛r❦❡ts ❢✉❧✜❧❧ t❤❡✐r ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈❡ r♦❧❡
♦❢ ❛❧❧♦❝❛t✐♥❣ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ❢♦r ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❣r♦✇t❤✳
✹❚ ❡❝ ❤♥♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ✐♥♥♦ ✈ ❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❝ ❤❡❛♣ ❝r❡❞✐t ❝❛♥ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❤ ②♣ ❡s t❤❛t ❛ttr❛❝t ❛❝t✐✈ ❡ ❜✉t ✉♥✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳

❈❤❛♣t❡r ✽
❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s
❈♦♥t❡♥ts
✽✳✶ ❖✉r ❝♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✺
✽✳✷ ▼❛✐♥ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✼
❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ✐♥ ♦♥❡ ♣❤r❛s❡✿ ❖✉r r ❡s✉❧ts ✈❛❧✐❞❛t❡ t❤❡ ✐❞❡ ❛ t❤❛t ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐s
❛ ❜ ❡ ❛✉t②✲❝ ♦♥t❡st ✲ t❤❡ ✇✐♥♥❡r ✐s t❤❡ ♦♥❡ t❤❛t ♠❛♥❛❣❡s t♦ ♣r ❡ ❞✐❝t t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t✬s ♦♣✐♥✐♦♥
❛♥❞ ♥♦t t❤❡ ❝ ♦rr ❡ ❝t ♦❜❥❡ ❝t✐✈❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡ ✲ ❛♥❞ s♦ ✇❡ ♣✉t ✐♥t♦ q✉❡st✐♦♥ ❛❧ ❧ ❛ss❡t
♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s ✭❛❧♦♥❣ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡✐r ❝ ♦♥s❡ q✉❡♥❝ ❡s✮ t❤❛t ❞♦ ♥♦t r ❡❧② ♦♥ ✧♦❜❥❡ ❝t✐✈❡❧②✲
✐rr ❡❧❡✈❛♥t✧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❧✐❦❡ ♣ ❡ ❡r ♦♣✐♥✐♦♥ ♦r str ❛t❡ ❣②✳
✽✳✶ ❖✉r ❝♦♥tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥
❲ ❡ r❡✈✐❡✇ ❤❡r❡ ♦✉r ♠♦❞❡❧s ✭♦r ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐♠♣r♦✈❡♠❡♥ts✮ ♦r t♦♦❧s t❤❛t ❝♦♥tr✐❜✉t❡ t♦ t❤❡
❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ r❡s❡❛r❝❤ ❜♦❞② ✳ ❚❤❡ t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤❡s ✇❡ ❡♥✈✐s✐♦♥❡❞ ❛♥❞ t❡st❡❞ ❛r❡
♠❡❛♥t t♦ r❡s♣❡❝t t❤❡ s♣✐r✐t ♦❢ ♣❛rs✐♠♦♥②✿ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t❤❡ ♠♦st t❤✐♥❣s ♣♦ss✐❜❧❡ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡
❧❡❛st ❛♠♦✉♥t ♦❢ ❞❡t❛✐❧s✳
▼♦st ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♠♦❞❡❧✐♥❣ ♣r♦❝❡ss❡s✱ ✐♥ r❡❣❛r❞s t♦ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✱ ❛r❡ ❜❛s❡❞
♦♥ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞ ✭♦r ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞ ♣r♦①②✮ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤✐s r❡q✉✐r❡s ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t♦ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥t
t❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✉s✐♥❣ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥t✐♥❣ r❛t❡s ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛r❡ s✉❜ ❥❡❝t t♦ ❞❡❜❛t❡✳ ❲ ❡ ♣r♦♣♦s❡❞
❛♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧✱ s❡❡ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ✺✳✷ ❢r♦♠ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✺ ✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐s ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ t❤❡
❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❧❛st ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❙✉❝❤
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❝♦♥s✐sts ♦❢ ❛ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t✐❛❧ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐s ❛♥ ✐♥❞✐❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥t❡❞ ❢✉t✉r❡
❝❛s❤ ✢♦✇s✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ❛❝❝❡ss t♦ ❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠ t❤❛t ♣r♦✈✐❞❡s
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ✐♥ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ s❡r✐❡s✱ ♦❢ ❜♦t❤ ❝❛s❤ ✢♦✇s ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥t r❛t❡s✳ ❆s ✇❡ s❤❛❧❧ s❡❡
✭✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t ♣❛r❛❣r❛♣❤✮ t❤✐s ❞♦❡s ♥♦t ✐♠♣❧② t❤❛t ❛❧❧ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② ♠❛❦❡ ❢✉t✉r❡
r❡t✉r♥s ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ✉s✐♥❣ ❤♦♠♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s ❞✐s❝♦✉♥t r❛t❡s✳
ș♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❦♥♦✇♥ t♦ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧❧② ❤❛✈❡ ❛ r✐s❦✲❛✈❡rs❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r✳ ș♥ ♠♦st ❝✉rr❡♥t
♠♦❞❡❧s ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✱ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ t♦ ❡✈ ❛❧✉❛t❡ t❤❡ r✐s❦✐♥❡ss ♦❢ ❛ st♦❝❦✳ ❯s✐♥❣
tr❛❞✐t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ♠♦❞❡❧s✱ ❧✐❦❡ t❤❡ ❈❆✹▼ ♦❢ ✭ ❙❤❛r♣❡ ✱ ✶✾✻✹ ✮✱ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ♥❡❡❞
t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ ♠✉❧t✐♣❧❡ ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✿ r✐s❦✲❢r❡❡ r❛t❡✱ r✐s❦ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t
r❡t✉r♥✳ ș♥ ♦✉r ♠♦❞❡❧ ✇❡ ✉s❡ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦r s♣❡❝✐✜❝ ♠❡❛s✉r❡✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ♠✐♥✐♠✉♠
❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ rmin ✳ ❆♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r✬s ♠✐♥✐♠✉♠ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥✱ r❡❧❛t✐✈❡ t♦ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✱

✶✽✻ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✽✳ ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s
❝♦♠ ❜✐♥❡s ❤✐s r✐s❦✲❛ ✈ ❡rs✐♦♥✱ ❤✐s r✐s❦ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❛t ❛ss❡t ✭♦r s❡♥s✐t✐✈✐t ② ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s✮ ❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦ ❤✐s r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡ r✐s❦✲❢r❡❡ r❛t❡✳ ❆♥❛❧②t✐❝❛❧❧② ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ ❡①♣r❡ss
❛ ♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❳ ❛s✿
Rmin(X) =Rf(X)+RiskPremia (X)∗EstimationOfAssetRisk (X) ✭✽✳✶✮
❇② ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ❞✐r❡❝t❧② ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡❞ ♠❡❛s✉r❡✱ ✐♥st❡❛❞ ♦❢ t ✇ ♦ ♦r t❤r❡❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r
s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ✈ ❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✱ ✇ ❡ ♠❛✐♥ t❛✐♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡✐t ② ✇❤✐❧❡ ❛ ✈ ♦✐❞✐♥❣ ❞❡❜❛t❡s ❛❜ ♦✉t
r✐s❦ ♣r❡♠✐❛ ♦r ✈ ❛r✐♦✉s r✐s❦ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s✳
ș♥ ♦✉r ✇ ♦r❦ ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ ❛♥ ❛rr❛ ② ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r str❛t❡❣② ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ✭s❡❡ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r
✺ ✮✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ ♣❛rs✐♠♦♥✐♦✉s ✇ ❛ ② ✭✉s✐♥❣ ♦♥❧② t ✇ ♦ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✮ ❛
✇✐❞❡ r❛♥❣❡ ♦❢ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦rs ❢r♦♠ ♦♣t✐♠✐sts✱ ❝♦♥s❡r✈ ❛t♦rs t♦ ♣ ❡ss✐♠✐sts ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ✈ ❛r✐❛✲
t✐♦♥s✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ ♦✉r ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✇ ❛s ❞❡s✐❣♥ ❛♥❞ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛❧❧② ❝ ❤❡❝ ❦ ❡❞ ❛s t♦ ♥♦t ❝♦♥ t❛✐♥ ❛♥ ②
♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞s✱ ❧✐❦ ❡ ✉s❡ ♦❢ ❤✐st♦r✐❝❛❧ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ✱ t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ✐♠♣❧✐❝✐t❧② ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡
✧st ②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts✧ ✐♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s✳
❲ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞ t ✇ ♦ ♥❡✇ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t str❛t❡❣② ✳ ❚❤❡ ✜rst✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞
❙ș❚❍✱ ❝❛♥ ❛r❜✐tr❛❣❡ ❛ss❡ts ♦r ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ ❣♦ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ tr❡♥❞ ❞❡♣ ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ ❤✐s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳
❉✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❢r♦♠ ♦t❤❡r ❡①✐st✐♥❣ s✇✐t❝ ❤✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣② ♠♦ ❞❡❧s✱ ❛ ❙ș❚❍ ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t ❛r❜✐tr❛r✐❧②
❝ ❤❛♥❣❡ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❜✉t r❛t❤❡r tr✐❡s t♦ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ ❤✐s ♣r♦✜ts ❞❡♣ ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ t❤❡ ✈ ❛r✐✲
❛❜❧❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t str❛t❡❣✐❡s✳ ❚❤❡ s❡❝♦♥❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ✇ ❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ●❖❉✱
r❡♣r❡s❡♥ ts ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❜ ❡♥❝ ❤♠❛r❦ ❢♦r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ s❡♠✐✲str♦♥❣ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✳ ❆
●❖❉ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐s ❛♥ ❛r❜✐tr❛❣❡✉r t❤❛t ❤❛s ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t ❛❝❝❡ss t♦ ♣✉❜❧✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❇②
♦❜s❡r✈✐♥❣ ❤✐s ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ♣ ❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡✱ r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ t♦ ♦t❤❡r ❧❡ss ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥
st❛rt ❞r❛ ✇✐♥❣ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ s❡♠✐✲str♦♥❣ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ♦❢ t❤❡ st✉❞✐❡❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳
❖✉r r❡s✉❧ts✱ s❡❡ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✻ ✱ s❤♦ ✇ t❤❛t ●❖❉ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ❛s ❛ ❣r♦✉♣✱ ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s
t❤❡ ❜ ❡st ♣ ❡r❢♦r♠❡rs ✭❤❡♥❝❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t✮✳ ❲ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡❞ t❤❛t ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♦rs ✭✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❛r❡ ❛❝t✉❛❧❧② ✇ ❡❧❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♠♦r❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① str❛t❡❣②✮
❝❛♥ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❜ ❡tt❡r r✐s❦✲❛❞❥✉st❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s✳ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤✐s ❛❞✈ ❛♥ t❛❣❡ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡
t❤❡② ✧♦❜s❡r✈ ❡✧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✭✈✐❛ ❛ ♣r♦ ①② ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞
✐♥ tr✐♥s✐❝ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮ ❛♥❞ ❛❞❥✉st t❤❡✐r str❛t❡❣② ❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣❧② ✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ s❛ ② ❛ ❙ș❚❍
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✧❛r❜✐tr❛t❡s✧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ♣ ❡r❝❡✐✈ ❡❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ❧❡✈✲
❡❧s✳ ❋ r♦♠ t❤❡s❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❛t✐♦♥s ✇ ❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ ❛ ♥❡✇ r✐s❦ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ❢♦r ❛ss❡ts ✇❤✐❝ ❤ s❤♦✉❧❞
✐♥❝♦r♣ ♦r❛t❡ ♥♦t ♦♥❧② ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✭❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝✮ r❡❧❛t❡❞ r✐s❦s ❜✉t ❛❧s♦ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②✲❧❡✈ ❡❧
r✐s❦ ✭✇❤✐❝ ❤ s❤♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t ❜ ❡ ❝♦♥❢✉s❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r✐s❦✮✳
❲ ❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②✲❧❡✈ ❡❧ r✐s❦ ❛s t❤❡ r✐s❦ ❢❛❝❡❞ ❜ ② ❛♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✱ ✇❤❡♥ ❜✉②✲
✐♥❣✴s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✱ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✬s ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❤✐❣❤❧② ✉♥❞❡r✴♦ ✈ ❡r ♣r✐❝❡❞ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢
♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✳ ▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ✭❛s ✇ ❡ s❛ ✇ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✮ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡
♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡❞✱ ❛t s✐♠✐❧❛r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✱ ❜ ② ✈ ❛r②✐♥❣ str❛t❡✲
❣✐❡s ✇ ❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡ ❛ ♥❡✇ ❢♦r♠ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②✿ str❛t❡❣②✲str♦♥❣ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②✶✳
✶șt ✐s ❛r❣✉❛❜❧❡ t❤❛t str❛t❡❣②✲str♦♥❣ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❛ r❡❢♦r♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ str♦♥❣✲❢♦r♠ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧
❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ t❡st❡❞ ❡❛s✐❧② ✳

✽✳✷✳ ▼❛✐♥ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s ✶✽✼
❚❤✐s ♥❡✇ r❡s❡❛r❝❤ ♣❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ str❛t❡❣②✲str♦♥❣
❡✣❝✐❡♥t✱ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡❞ ❛❜♦✈❡✲♠❛r❦❡t r✐s❦✲❛❞❥✉st❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ♣♦ss✐❜❧❡ ❡✈❡♥ ✐❢ t❤❡
❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦r str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✐s ❦♥♦✇♥✳ ❚❤✐s t②♣❡ ♦❢ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t ✐t ✐s
♥♦t ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ❛❝t✐✈❡ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ ✇❡ ✇♦✉❧❞
❜❡ ❜❡tt❡r ♦✛ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♣❛ss✐✈❡ ❜✉② ❛♥❞ ❤♦❧❞ str❛t❡❣② ✳ șt ✐s ✇♦rt❤ ♠❡♥t✐♦♥✐♥❣ t❤❛t ❛
str❛t❡❣②✲str♦♥❣ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t ✐♠♣❧② ✐t ✐s ❛❧s♦ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧❧②
❡✣❝✐❡♥ t✷✳
❖✉r ❧❛st t❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❝♦♥tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❝♦♥s✐sts ✐♥ ❛ ♠✐♥♦r✐t②✲t②♣❡ ♠♦❞❡❧✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❚❤❡
❙❤❛r❦ ●❛♠❡ ✭s❡❡ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✼ ✮✳ ❚❤✐s ♠♦❞❡❧ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡s ❛ ♣❛rs✐♠♦♥✐♦✉s t♦②✲♠♦❞❡❧ ♦❢ ❛
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t t❤❛t ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ✉s❡❞ ❢♦r ❞✐❞❛❝t✐❝ ❛s ✇❡❧❧ ❛s ❢♦r r❡s❡❛r❝❤ ♣✉r♣♦s❡s✳ ❚❤❡
r✐❝❤♥❡ss ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❝♦♥s✐sts ✐♥ ✐ts ❢❡✇ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✭❆✱❇ ❛♥❞ ❩✮ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ❛
✇✐❞❡ r❛♥❣❡ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s❡tt✐♥❣s✳
❋✐♥❛❧❧② ✱ ✇❡ ♠❡♥t✐♦♥ t❤❡ ❞❡s✐❣♥ ❛♥❞ ❝r❡❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♦✉r ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥
t♦♦❧ ❛s ❛ ♣r❛❝t✐❝❛❧ ❝♦♥tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤❡ ▲❯▼❆ s♦❢t✇❛r❡ t♦♦❧✱ ❛✈ ❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ♦♥❧✐♥❡✸❛t
▲❯▼❆ ✇❡❜s✐t❡ ✱ ✐s t❤❡ ✜rst s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ♦❢ ✐ts t②♣❡ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ ❢r❡♥❝❤ ❞♦❝t♦r❛❧
s❝❤♦♦❧ ♦❢ ♠❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t✹✭❛♥❞ t❤❡ s❡❝♦♥❞ ✐♥ ❋ r❛♥❝❡ ❛❢t❡r t❤❡ ❆ ❚❖▼ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r✱ ✇❤✐❝❤
✇❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡❞ ✐♥ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✹ ✮✳
✽✳✷ ▼❛✐♥ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s
❲ ❡ s✉♠♠❛r✐③❡ ♦✉r r❡s❡❛r❝❤ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s ✐♥ ❛ ❢❡✇ s✐♠♣❧❡ ♣r♦♣♦s✐t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❛❢t❡r✇❛r❞s
✇❡ ❛❞❞r❡ss t❤❡♠ ✐♥ ♠♦r❡ ❞❡t❛✐❧✿
✶✳ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t✱ ❡✈❡♥ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♦✈❡r✇❤❡❧♠✐♥❣ ♣r❡s❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❜✐❛s❡s✳
❊✣❝✐❡♥❝② ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❛❝❤✐❡✈❡❞ ✐❢ t❤❡ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❜✐❛s ✭r❡❧❛t✐✈❡ t♦ t❤❡
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮ ✐s ♥✉❧❧✳ ❚❤✐s ✐♠♣❧✐❡s t❤❛t ❜✐❛s❡s ❛r❡ ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡❞ ❛♥❞✱ ♦♥ t❤❡
❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡✱ ❝❛♥❝❡❧ ❡❛❝❤ ♦t❤❡r ♦✉t✳ ❲❤❡♥ ❜✐❛s❡s ❤❛✈❡ ❛ s❦❡✇❡❞ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✭❡✳❣✳ ♠♦r❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♦♣t✐♠✐sts ♦r ♦♣t✐♠✐st
✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝♦♥tr♦❧ ♠♦r❡ ✇❡❛❧t❤ t❤❛♥ ♦t❤❡r ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✮✱ ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s
❞✐✈❡r❣❡ ♣❡rs✐st❡♥t❧② ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧❧② ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡✳
✷✳ ❙t②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts ❛r❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ ❡✈❡♥ ✇❤❡♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐s ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ✭♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s
✢✉❝t✉❛t❡✱ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ③❡r♦ ♠❡❛♥✱ ❛r♦✉♥❞ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✮✳ ❆ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❧❛❣ ✐♥
t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✉s❡❞ ❜② ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ t❤❡s❡ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ❡✛❡❝ts✳ ❚❤❡
♣r❡s❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ✧ st②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts✧ ❞♦❡s ♥♦t ♦✛❡r ♠✉❝❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦♥ t❤❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②
♦❢ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ♦r ❛❜♦✉t ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐♥✈❡st♦r str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❛r❡ ❛❝t✐✈❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳
✸✳ ❲❤❡♥ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✭❡✳❣✳ ♣❡rs✐st❡♥t ♦✈❡r♣r✐❝✐♥❣✮✱ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
❤❛✈❡ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ ♥❡❝❡ss❛r② ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈❡s t♦ s❡❧❧ t❤❡✐r ❛ss❡ts✳ ❚❤❡✐r ❥♦✐♥t s❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❛❝t✐♦♥
✷❲ ❡ r❡❞❡✜♥❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✇❤✐❧❡ r❡s♣❡❝t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✭ ●r♦ss♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❙t✐❣❧✐t③ ✱ ✶✾✽✵ ✮ ♣❛r❛❞♦① ♦♥ t❤❡
✐♠♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t② ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧❧② ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡ts✮✳
✸❤tt♣✿✴✴❝❡r❛❣✳♦r❣✴❧✉❝✐❛♥st❛♥❝✐✉✴▲❯▼❆✴✐♥❞❡①✳❤t♠❧
✹❊❝♦❧❡ ❉♦❝t♦r❛❧❡ ❞❡ ❙❝✐❡♥❝❡s ❞❡ ●❡st✐♦♥✱ ❊❉❙● ✷✼✺✱ ●r❡♥♦❜❧❡

✶✽✽ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✽✳ ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s
✐s ♥♦t ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s s✉✣❝✐❡♥ t t♦ r❡✲❡st❛❜❧✐s❤ ✉♥ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ș❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❡①❤❛✉st t❤❡✐r r❡s♦✉r❝❡s t❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠♦ ✈ ❡s ✐♥ t♦ ❛ ♥♦♥✲❡✣❝✐❡♥ t st❛t❡ ❛♥❞
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡❞ ❜ ② ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ str❛t❡❣✐❡s✳ ❉✉r✐♥❣ t❤❡s❡
✧ ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞✧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r t❤❛♥ ✉s✉❛❧ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❜ ❡✲
❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❡② t❛❦ ❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r r✐s❦s ❛♥❞ t❤❡r❡❢♦r❡
t❤❡② ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❤✐❣❤❡r r❡t✉r♥s✳ ✷r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ✉s✉❛❧❧② ♦ ❝❝✉r ❛♥❞ t❤❡✐r ❛♠♣❧✐t✉❞❡
❛♥❞ ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❧✐♠✐t❡❞ ❜ ② t❤❡ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ✭❛♥❞ ❝r❡❞✐t ♦♣t✐♦♥s✮ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞
str❛t❡❣✐❡s✳ ❉✉r✐♥❣ s✉❝ ❤ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✱ ❧♦ ✇ ❡r✐♥❣ ❝♦sts ♦❢ ♠♦♥❡②
❝❛♥ ❡♥❤❛♥❝❡ ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❜✐❣❣❡r ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✳
✹✳ ❲❤❡♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥ t❧② ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐t ✐s ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ❢♦r ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♦rs t♦ ❡♥❣❛❣❡ ✐♥ ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✭t❡❝ ❤♥✐❝❛❧ t ②♣ ❡✮ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✭tr② t♦ ❣♦ ✇✐t❤
t❤❡ ✧ ❝r♦ ✇❞✧✮✳ ❚❤❡ ♣r♦✜t❛❜✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ s✉❝ ❤ ♣✉r❡ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✱ ❡✈ ❡♥ ✇❤❡♥
❦♥♦ ✇✐♥❣ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❛ss❡ts ❛r❡ ♠✐s♣r✐❝❡❞✱ ❞❡♣ ❡♥❞s ♦♥ t❤❡ s♣ ❡❡❞ ❛t ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♣r✐❝❡s r❡✈ ❡rt t♦ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦ ♦♥ t❤❡ ❣❛♣ ❝r❡❛t❡❞ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡s❡
✈ ❛❧✉❡s ✭♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❧❡✈ ❡❧✮✳ ș❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts r❡st ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❢♦r ❛ ❧♦♥❣❡r t✐♠❡
t❤❛♥ ❛ ♣✉r❡✲s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t♦r✬s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❤♦r✐③♦♥ t❤❡♥ ✐t ✐s ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❡♥❣❛❣❡ ✐♥
t❡❝ ❤♥✐❝❛❧ tr❛❞✐♥❣✳
✺✳ ❆❧❧ ❡❧s❡ ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ❡q✉❛❧✱ ✇ ❡ s❛ ② t❤❛t ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇✐♥❣ ❝ ❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s
❤❛s ❛ ❤✐❣❤ ❝ ❤❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ❛♥❞ ♦❢ ❣❡♥❡r❛t✐♥❣ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ✭♦r ♦t❤❡r
❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s✮✿
✭❛✮ ❚❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❤❛s ❛♥ ♦❜s❝✉r❡ ❛ss❡t ✭❞✐✣❝✉❧t t♦ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ♦r ❧❛❝ ❦✐♥❣ ✐♥
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✮✱ t❤❛t ❤❛s s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞ ♣r♦♠✐s❡s ♦❢ ❣r♦ ✇t❤
✭❜✮ ▼♦♥❡② ❢♦r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐♥❣ ✐s ❜ ♦rr♦ ✇ ❡❞ ❝ ❤❡❛♣❧②
✭❝✮ ▼❛r❦ ❡ts✱ ✐♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ❛r❡ st❡❛❞② ♦r ❣r♦ ✇✐♥❣✳ ❚❤✐s ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ❛ttr❛❝ts ♦♣t✐✲
♠✐st✐❝ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭❛♥❞ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡s s❦ ❡✇ ❡❞ ❛ ❜✐❛s ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ tr✐❣❣❡r
♠♦r❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣✮✳
❲ ❡ ♥♦ ✇ ❣♦ t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❛ s❤♦rt r❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❦ ♣r❡s❡♥ t❡❞✳ ❋✐rst✱ ✇ ❡ ❞❡t❛✐❧ t❤❡
✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❢❛❝t♦rs t❤❛t ❣✉✐❞❡ t❤✐s r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤✿ t❤❡ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥s ✇ ❡ ♠❛❦ ❡✱ t❤❡ ❧✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥s
♦❢ ♦✉r ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ✱ ♦✉r ❝♦♥ tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ s❝✐❡♥ t✐✜❝ ❞❡❜❛t❡ ❛♥❞ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ r❡s✉❧ts✳ ș♥
t❤❡ ❡♥❞ ✇ ❡ ♦✛❡r ❛ ❢❡✇ ❤✐♥ ts ❛❜ ♦✉t ♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ♦❢ ❡①t❡♥s✐♦♥ t♦ t❤✐s ✇ ♦r❦✳
ș♥ t❤❡ ❝♦♥ t❡①t ♦❢ t❤❡ r❡❝❡♥ t ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝r✐s✐s✱ r❡❣✉❧❛t♦rs✱ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤❡rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❣❡♥✲
❡r❛❧ ♣✉❜❧✐❝ ❛r❡ q✉❡st✐♦♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ r♦❧❡ ❛♥❞ s❛❢❡t ② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ș♥ t❤❡ ❛❝❛✲
❞❡♠✐❝ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✜❡❧❞✱ t❤❡ t❤❡♦r② ♦❢ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❤❛s ♦✛❡r❡❞ ❛ s❝✐❡♥ t✐✜❝ ❜❛s✐s ❢♦r
❛♥❛❧②s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡❛❧✐t✐❡s ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❛r❡ ✐♥❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ t ✇✐t❤ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ t❤❡♦r② ✳
❚❤❡ ♣ ♦❧✐t✐❝❛❧✱ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝✱ s♦ ❝✐❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝ ❝♦♥ t❡①t ❛♥❞ ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♦✉r ✇ ♦r❦
❛r❡ ❞❡t❛✐❧❡❞ ✐♥ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✶✳
ș♥ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✷ ✇ ❡ ❣♦ ✐♥ t♦ ♠♦r❡ ❞❡t❛✐❧ ❛❜ ♦✉t ♦✉r s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t ♦❢ st✉❞②✿ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts st❛rt✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✬s ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✳ ș♥
t❤✐s ♣❛rt ♦❢ ♦✉r st✉❞② ✇ ❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜ ❡ t❤❡ ✢♦ ✇ ♦❢ ❛❝t✐♦♥s t❤❛t tr❛♥s❢♦r♠ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ♣r♦✜t ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ t♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ♦r❞❡rs ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ♠❡r❣❡ ❛♥❞ ❢♦r♠ t❤❡

✽✳✷✳ ▼❛✐♥ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s ✶✽✾
♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡✳ ❉✉❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡①✐t② ♦❢ s✉❝❤ ♠♦❞❡❧s ♦❢ r❡❛❧✐t② ✱ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧
❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡ ✐s ♥♦t s✉✣❝✐❡♥t t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛♥ ❡❛s✐❧② ❝♦♠♣r❡❤❡♥s✐❜❧❡ ♠♦❞❡❧✳ ❲ ❡ ❝❤♦♦s❡ t♦
✉s❡ ❛ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡✱ ♥❛♠❡❧② ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡✱ t♦ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡ ❛♥❞ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❛ ❣❡♥❡r✐❝
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✳
ș♥ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✸ ✇❡ ♣r❡s❡♥t t❤❡ r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥t ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡ ❛♥❞ ♦✛❡r ♦✉r ✈✐❡✇ ❛❜♦✉t t❤❡
❛❝❛❞❡♠✐❝ ✇♦r❦s ♦♥ t❤❡ s✉❜ ❥❡❝ts ♦❢ ♠♦❞❡❧❧✐♥❣✱ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r✲❜❛s❡❞
♠❛r❦❡t s✐♠✉❧❛t♦rs ❢♦r r❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ❲ ❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ❡❛❝❤ ♣❛rt ♦❢ ❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r✲❜❛s❡❞
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ♠♦❞❡❧✱ ❢r♦♠ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤❡ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ❛❞❞r❡ss❡s
t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ❝r✐t✐❝s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ❢❛❝❡❞ ❜② ♦✉r ♠❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ r❡s❡❛r❝❤✳ ❋ ✉rt❤❡r♠♦r❡ ✇❡
s❤♦✇ t❤❛t ❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r ✐s ❡q✉✐✈ ❛❧❡♥t t♦ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ✲ t❤❡r❡❢♦r❡
❛❧❧ ❛❞✈ ❛♥t❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❛❞✈ ❛♥t❛❣❡s ♦❢ ♣✉r❡ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❛❧s♦ ❛♣♣❧② t♦
❝♦♠♣✉t❡r ❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡ ♠♦❞❡❧❧✐♥❣✳
◆❡①t✱ ✐♥ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✹✱ ✇❡ ♣r❡s❡♥t❡❞ t❤❡ ▲❯▼❆ s✐♠✉❧❛t♦r✱ t❤❛t ✇❛s ❝♦♥str✉❝t❡❞
s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛❧❧② ❢♦r ♦✉r ✇♦r❦✳ ❖✉r ♠❛✐♥ ❝♦♥tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ❢♦✉♥❞ ✐♥ t❤✐s ♠♦❞❡❧✳ ❲ ❡
♣r♦♣♦s❡❞ ❛ ✉♥✐q✉❡ t②♣❡ ♦❢ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ș♥st❡❛❞ ♦❢ r❡✈❡❛❧✐♥❣ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
❞✐r❡❝t❧② ❛❜♦✉t t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐s ✈❡r② ❞✐✣❝✉❧t ❛♥❞ ❝♦st❧②
t♦ ❞♦ ✐♥ r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✱ ✇❡ ♣r♦♣♦s❡❞ ❛ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✇❤❡r❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜♦✉t ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧
❛ss❡t ✐s r❡✈❡❛❧❡❞ ✐♥ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✭t♦♦ ❤✐❣❤✱ t♦♦ ❧♦✇✮ ✲ s❡❡ ❢♦r ♠♦r❡
❞❡t❛✐❧s ✐♥ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✱ ♣❛❣❡ ✽✵✳ ▼♦r❡♦✈❡r✱ ✇❡ ❝♦♥tr✐❜✉t❡❞ ❜② ♠♦❞❡❧❧✐♥❣ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜✐❛s❡s
✉s✐♥❣ t✇♦ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✇❤✐❝❤ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛♥ ❛✣♥❡ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣❡r❢❡❝t ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ ❇② ❝❤❛♥❣✐♥❣ t❤✐s s✐♠♣❧❡ s❡t ♦❢ t✇♦ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✇❡ ♦❜t❛✐♥ ❛ ✇✐❞❡ r❛♥❣❡
♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦rs✱ ❢r♦♠ ♣❡ss✐♠✐s♠ t♦ ❤✐♥❞s✐❣❤t ❛♥❞ ♦♣t✐♠✐s♠✳ ❲ ❡ ❧✐♠✐t t❤❡
s❝♦♣❡ ♦❢ ♦✉r st✉❞② t♦ ❡①tr❛✲❞❛② tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣❡r✐♦❞s✳ ❲❤✐❧❡ t❤✐s ♠❛② ❜❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ ❛
t❤♦✉❣❤ ❧✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥ ♦♥ ♦✉r st✉❞② ✱ ✇❡ ❜❡❧✐❡✈❡ t❤❛t ✐♥tr❛❞❛② tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣❡r✐♦❞s ❛r❡ ♥♦t
r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥t t♦ ❜❡ st✉❞✐❡❞ ✐♥ ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t✲❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧ ❝♦♥t❡①t✳ ❲ ❡ ♠❛❦❡ t❤✐s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥
❝♦♥s✐❞❡r✐♥❣ t❤❛t ✐t ✐s ❞✐✣❝✉❧t t♦ ♦✛❡r ❛ s♦❧✐❞ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢
t❤❡ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❛ ❝♦♠♣❛♥② ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥ ❛ ❞❛② ✭♦r ❛ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ♣❡r✐♦❞✮✳
❆♥♦t❤❡r ❧✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♦✉r st✉❞② ✐s t❤❡ ❢❛❝t t❤❛t ✇❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡t✳ ❲ ❡
❝♦♥s✐❞❡r t❤❛t ❛ ❣r♦✉♣ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛s ❛ ♠✉❝❤ ❤❛r❞❡r t✐♠❡ t♦ ❣❛t❤❡r✱ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t ❛♥❞
s♣❡❝✉❧❛t❡ ♦♥ ♠✉❧t✐♣❧❡ ❛ss❡ts t❤❛♥ ✐t ❞♦❡s ❜② ❢♦❝✉s✐♥❣ ♦♥ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ st♦❝❦✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡
✇❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❝✐t❧② ❛ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t ✐❢ ❛ ❣r♦✉♣ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ✭♦r ❝❛♥♥♦t✮ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t
♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐t❤ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ st♦❝❦ t❤❡♥ t❤❡② ❤❛✈❡ ✭❞♦♥✬t ❤❛✈❡✮ t❤❡ ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t② t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛♥
❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡t ✇✐t❤ ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ♦♥❡ st♦❝❦✳ ș♥ r❡❣❛r❞s t♦ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢
❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✭❛♥❞ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝✮ t❤❡♦r✐❡s✱ ♦❢ ❤♦♠♦❣❡♥❡✐t② ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦r str❛t❡❣② ✱ ✇❡
❛tt❡st t♦ t❤❡ s♦✉♥❞♥❡ss ♦❢ t❤✐s ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ♦♥❧② ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❢❛❝t✿
✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ♦✈❡r✇❤❡❧♠❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❛ ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❝❛♥♥♦t
♠❛❦❡ s✉♣❡r✐♦r ♣r♦✜ts✳ ❲❤✐❧❡ t❤✐s ✐s tr✉❡ ✐♥ t❤❡♦r② ✐t ❞♦❡s ♥♦t ♠❡❛♥ t❤❛t r❡❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts
❛r❡ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ t✐♠❡ ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡❞ ❜② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✳ ș♥ ♦✉r t❡sts ✇❡ s❤♦✇ t❤❛t ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t
♣♦♣✉❧❛t❡❞ ❜② ♠♦st❧② ✭✐♥ t❡r♠s ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✇❡✐❣❤t✮ ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❝r❡❛t❡
✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈❡s ❢♦r ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs t♦ ♥♦t ✉s❡
❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥②♠♦r❡✳ ▼♦r❡♦✈❡r✱ ✇❡ s❤♦✇ t❤❛t ❡✈❡♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs
❤❛✈❡ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈❡s t♦ tr❛❞❡ ❛❣❛✐♥st t❤❡✐r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ✉s✐♥❣ t❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧ str❛t❡❣✐❡s✱ ✐♥ ❛♥

✶✾✵ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✽✳ ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s
❛tt❡♠♣t t♦ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ s✉♣ ❡r✐♦r ♣r♦✜ts✳
ș♥ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✺ ✇ ❡ ♣✉t ♦✉r ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r t♦ t❤❡ t❡st ❛♥❞ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡ ❛♥s✇ ❡rs t♦
t❤❡ ✜✈ ❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s✳ ❲ ❡ st❛rt ❜ ② ♣ ❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ❜ ❡♥❝ ❤♠❛r❦ t❡sts t❤❛t ✉s❡ ❝❧❡❛r
✐♥♣✉t✲♦✉t♣✉t ❞❛t❛ s❡ts ❛✐♠❡❞ t♦ ✈ ❛❧✐❞❛t❡ t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥❛❧✐t ② ♦❢ ♦✉r r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤
t♦ ♦❧✳ ❖✉r t❡sts s❤♦ ✇ t❤❛t ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥ t❧② ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❝r❡❛t❡❞
❜ ② ❛ ♣ ♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s❦ ❡✇ ❡❞ ❜✐❛s❡s ✭♠♦r❡ ♦♣t✐♠✐sts✱
♠♦r❡ ♣ ❡ss✐♠✐sts✱ ❡t❝✳✮✳ ❋ ✉rt❤❡r♠♦r❡✱ ✧ st ②❧✐③❡❞✧ ❢❛❝ts ❛r❡ s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞ t♦ ❜ ❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡❞
❜ ② ❛ ♥ ✉♠ ❜ ❡r ♦❢ ❝❛✉s❡s✱ ♦✉t ♦❢ ✇❤✐❝ ❤ t❤❡ s✐♠♣❧❡st ✐s t❤❡ ❢❛❝t t❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❝❛♥ ❛❝t ✉s✐♥❣ ♦✉t❞❛t❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭♥❡✇s♣❛♣ ❡rs✱ ♦❧❞ ❛♥❛❧②st r❡♣ ♦rts✱ ❞❡❧❛ ② ❡❞ ♥❡✇s
❢❡❡❞s✱ ❡t❝✳✮✳ ❲ ❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧✐♥❡ t❤❛t ✇ ❡ ❝♦♥ tr✐❜✉t❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡✱ ❝♦♥❝❡r♥✐♥❣ st ②❧✐③❡❞
❢❛❝ts✱ ❜ ② ♣r♦♣ ♦s✐♥❣ ❛ r❡❛❧✐st✐❝ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r t❤❛t ❞♦ ❡s ♥♦t ✐♠♣❧✐❝✐t❧②
✉s❡ ❛✉t♦ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t❡❞ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥s ✭s✉❝ ❤ ❛s ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛s ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣❛st
✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ②✮✳
❆❢t❡r ♣r♦ ✈✐♥❣ t❤❛t ♣ ❡rs✐st❡♥ t❧② ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ ✇ ❡ ❢♦ ❝✉s ♦♥
t❤❡ s✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r str❛t❡❣✐❡s✳ ❇② ❛♥s✇ ❡r✐♥❣ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ✷ ❛♥❞
✸ ✇ ❡ s❤♦ ✇ t❤❛t ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✇❤❡♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s
❛r❡ t❤❡♠s❡❧✈ ❡s ❜✐❛s❡❞✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡s❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❢❛❝❡ ✇ ❡❛❦ ❡r ❝♦♠♣ ❡t✐t✐♦♥ ❢♦r
t❤❡ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ♦❢ ✉♥✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭♥♦✐s❡ ♦r ❝ ❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs✮ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ✇ ❡❧❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❡①❤❛✉st t❤❡✐r r❡s♦✉r❝❡s ✇❤❡♥ tr②✐♥❣ t♦ r❡✲❡st❛❜❧✐s❤ ❝♦rr❡❝t ♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s✳
❙✐♠♣❧② ♣✉t✱ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r str❛t❡❣② t❤❛t ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡s ♣r✐❝❡s✱ ❢♦r ❡①t❡♥❞❡❞ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ♦❢
t✐♠❡✱ ❝❛♥ s✉r✈✐✈ ❡ ❛♥❞ ♣r♦s♣ ❡r ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳
❋ r♦♠ ❛ ♣❤✐❧♦s♦♣❤✐❝❛❧ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦❢ ✈✐❡✇✱ ♦✉r r❡s✉❧ts ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ✈✐❡✇ ❡❞ ❛s ❛ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ r❡s✉❧t
♦❢ ❤ ✉♠❛♥ ❛❞❛♣t❛t✐♦♥✳ ș♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❡♥❞ t♦ ❛❞♦♣t t❤❡ ♠♦st ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ str❛t❡❣② ❡✈ ❡♥
✐❢ ✐t ✐s ❛ ✬♥♦♥✲❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❜❛s❡❞✬ str❛t❡❣② ✳ ✣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❞♦ ♥♦t ✐♠♣❧② ❛
❝♦st ❢♦r t❤❡ s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❛t ♣r♦✜t❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ r✐s❡✳ ❙✉❝ ❤ ❛❞❛♣t✐✈ ❡
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦ ❜ ❡ s❡❡♥ ✐♥ ♣ ♦❧✐t✐❝❛❧ s②st❡♠s✳ ▲❡t ✉s ✐♠❛❣✐♥❡ t❤❛t ❛ ❞❡♠♦ ❝r❛t✐❝
s②st❡♠ ✐s ❧✐❦ ❡ ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳ ❲❤❡♥ s♦♠❡ ❝✐t✐③❡♥s ❜r❛❦ ❡ t❤❡ ❧❛ ✇s ♦❢ t❤❡
❞❡♠♦ ❝r❛❝② ✭st❡❛❧✱ ✐♥❝✐t❡ t♦ ✈✐♦❧❡♥❝❡✱ ❡t❝✳✮ t❤❡♥ t❤❡ s②st❡♠ ✇✐❧❧ ♣✉♥✐s❤ t❤✐s ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r
❛♥❞ r❡st♦r❡ ♦r❞❡r ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞❡♠♦ ❝r❛❝② ✳ ❚❤✐s ✐s s✐♠✐❧❛r t♦ ✇❤❡♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❞❡♣❛rt
s❤♦rt❧② ❢r♦♠ t❤❡✐r ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ș❢ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r r❡❛❝t q✉✐❝ ❦❧②
t❤❛♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❝❛♥ r❡❣❛✐♥ t❤❡✐r ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s✳ ●❡tt✐♥❣ ❜❛❝ ❦ t♦ ❛ ❞❡♠♦ ❝r❛t✐❝
s②st❡♠✱ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ♠♦♠❡♥ ts ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ ♣ ♦ ✇ ❡r ✐♥ t❤❡ st❛t❡ ✐s s❡✐③❡❞ ❜ ② ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡ ✇✐t❤
t♦t❛❧❧② ❛♥ t✐❞❡♠♦ ❝r❛t✐❝ ✈✐❡✇s ✭❧✐❦ ❡ ✐♥ ❛ ❝♦✉♣ ❞✬ét❛t✮✳ ❲❤❡♥ s✉❝ ❤ ❡✈ ❡♥ ts ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥✱
❝✐t✐③❡♥s st✐❧❧ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ✬r❛t✐♦♥❛❧❧②✲❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞✬ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✿ tr② t♦ ♣✉♥✐s❤ t❤❡ ❣✉✐❧t ②
❛♥❞ ❛♣♣❧② t❤❡ ❧❛ ✇s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞❡♠♦ ❝r❛t✐❝ s②st❡♠✳ ș♥ ❡①tr❡♠❡ ❝❛s❡s ❧✐❦ ❡ ✐♥ ❛ t♦t❛❧✐t❛r✐❛♥
s②st❡♠✱ ✐t ✐s ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ st❛t❡ ♦❢ ❧❛ ✇ ✐s ♥♦t r❡s♣ ❡❝t❡❞ ❛♥ ②♠♦r❡✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱
✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s t❤❛t tr② t♦ ❝♦♠ ❜❛t ❛♥❞ ♣r♦t❡st ❛❣❛✐♥st t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ✉♥❞❡♠♦ ❝r❛t✐❝ r❡❣✐♠❡
❝❛♥ ❡♥❞ ✉♣ ❧♦s✐♥❣ ✭✐♠♣r✐s♦♥❡❞ ♦r ❡✈ ❡♥ ❦✐❧❧❡❞✮✳ ș♥ s✉❝ ❤ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥s✱ ❝✐t✐③❡♥s ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♠♦r❡
t❤❛♥ ♦♥❡ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡✿ t❤❡② ❝❛♥ ✢❡❡ t❤❡ ❝♦✉♥ tr② ✭t♦ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡ ✜❣❤ t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❛♥❞
❛ ✈ ♦✐❞ ✐♠♣r✐s♦♥♠❡♥ t✮ ♦r t❤❡② ❝❛♥ ❝ ❤♦ ♦s❡ t♦ s✉♣♣ ♦rt ✭♦r ♥♦t ♦♣ ❡♥❧② ❞✐s❛♣♣r♦ ✈ ❡✮ t❤❡
♥❡✇ r❡❣✐♠❡✳ ❍✐st♦r② s❤♦ ✇s ❜ ♦t❤ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ❛❞♦♣t❡❞ ❜ ② ❝✐t✐③❡♥s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts ❛r❡
❛s ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇s✿

✽✳✷✳ ▼❛✐♥ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s ✶✾✶
✶✳ ș❢ t❤❡ ♥♦♥✲❞❡♠♦ ❝r❛t✐❝ s②st❡♠ ♣ ❡rs✐sts t❤❡♥ ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡ t❤❛t ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❝ ❤♦s❡♥ t♦ s✉♣♣ ♦rt
✐t ✇✐❧❧ ♣r♦s♣ ❡r ✭s♦♠❡ ✇✐❧❧ ♥❡✈ ❡r ❢❛❝❡ tr✐❛❧s ❢♦r t❤❡✐r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✮
✷✳ ș❢ t❤❡ s②st❡♠ t♦♣♣❧❡s q✉✐❝ ❦❧② t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ❝✐t✐③❡♥s t❤❛t s✉♣♣ ♦rt❡❞ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ s②st❡♠
✇✐❧❧ s✉✛❡r t❤❡ ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡s✳
❲ ❡ ❝❛♥ ✐♠❛❣✐♥❡ t❤❛t ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇❤❡r❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❞❡♣❛rt ❛❜r✉♣t❧② ✭❛♥❞ ✐♥ t❡♥s❡❧②✮
❢r♦♠ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧s ❝❛♥ r❡s❡♠ ❜❧❡ ❛ ♥♦♥✲❞❡♠♦ ❝r❛t✐❝ s②st❡♠ t❤❛t ✐s ❝♦♠✐♥❣
t♦ ♣ ♦ ✇ ❡r✳ ș♥ s✉❝ ❤ ❛ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥✱ ❛ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐s ❢❛❝❡❞ ✇✐t❤ t ✇ ♦ ♦♣t✐♦♥s
✭❧✐❦ ❡ ❛ ❝✐t✐③❡♥ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡✇ ♣ ♦❧✐t✐❝❛❧ s②st❡♠✮✿
✶✳ ș❢ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡s t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❢❛❧❧ q✉✐❝ ❦❧② t♦ ✐ts ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧
✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ t❤❛♥ ✐t ✐s ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❣♦ ❛❣❛✐♥st ✭s❤♦rt✮ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳
✷✳ ș❢ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡s t❤❡ ♠✐s♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❝❛♥ ♣ ❡rs✐st ✭❧♦♥❣ ❡♥♦✉❣❤✮ t❤❛♥ ✐t ❝❛♥
❜ ❡ ♠♦r❡ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❣♦ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✭❛❞♦♣t ❛ t❡❝ ❤♥✐❝❛❧ str❛t❡❣②✮✳ șt ✐s
✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t ❢♦r t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t♦ ❝❧♦s❡ ❤✐s ♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ ❜ ❡❢♦r❡ t❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡s r❡❛❞❥✉st ✭❛♥❞
t❤ ✉s ♥♦t ❢❛❝❡ t❤❡ ❞♦ ✇♥s✐❞❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✮✳ ❖❢ ❝♦✉rs❡✱ ❛❢t❡r ♣r✐❝❡s r❡❛❞❥✉st
✭✐❢ ❡✈ ❡r✮ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝❛♥ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❜❛s❡❞
str❛t❡❣② ✳
ș♥ ♦✉r r❡s✉❧ts ♣r❡s❡♥ t❛t✐♦♥✱ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✻ ✱ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❞❡str✉❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ✐s ❛❧s♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐❣❛t❡❞✳ ❲ ❡ s❤♦ ✇ t❤❛t ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❛r❡ ❝r❡❛t❡❞ ✇❤❡♥
❛ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥ t ♠❛ss ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ✇✐t❤ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞
❧❛❝ ❦✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ❝❛♥ ❝♦♥❝❡♥ tr❛t❡ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ r❡s♦✉r❝❡s ♦♥ ❛
st♦ ❝ ❦✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐t ✐s ❝❧❡❛r t❤❛t ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❝❛♥ ❧♦s❡ ✐ts ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❞❡✈✐s❡❞ ❛ ♥❡✇
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r str❛t❡❣② ✭❣❡♥❡r✐❝❛❧❧② ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❙ș❚❍✮✳ ❆ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐♥ t❡♥ t✐♦♥❛❧❧② s✇✐t❝ ❤❡s
❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❛♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ❛♥❞ ♥♦♥✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ str❛t❡❣② ✳ ❲ ❡ s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞ ❤♦ ✇ s✉❝ ❤ ❛ ❙ș❚❍
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❝❛♥ ❡❛r♥ ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ❛ ♣✉r❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ✐♥ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤❡r❡ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
❧♦s❡s ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ❢♦r s✉st❛✐♥❡❞ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ♦❢ t✐♠❡✳
❖✉r r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ r❡s✉❧ts t❡♥❞ t♦ ✈ ❛❧✐❞❛t❡ t❤❡ ✸✷ ② ❡❛rs ♦❧❞ ♣r♦ ♦❢ ❜ ② ●r♦ss♠❛♥ ❛♥❞
❙t✐❣❧✐t③✱ s❡❡ ✭ ●r♦ss♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❙t✐❣❧✐t③ ✱ ✶✾✽✵ ✮✳ ❚❤✐s ♣r♦ ♦❢ s❤♦ ✇ ❡❞✱ ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐✲
❝❛❧ ❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡✱ t❤❛t ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❝❛♥♥♦t ❜ ❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t✳ ❲ ❡ ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ ❛ ❢✉t✉r❡
r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ❞✐r❡❝t✐♦♥ ✐s t♦ st✉❞② ❛♥ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈ ❡ r✐s❦ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ❢♦r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t t❤❛t ✇✐❧❧
r❡♣❧❛❝❡ t❤❡ ❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ♠❡❛s✉r❡✳ ❚❤✐s ♥❡✇ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t r✐s❦ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❝♦♥✲
s✐st ✐♥ ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ♦❢ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ♦❢ ❛ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ tr❛❞❡❞ ❛ss❡t✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱
✐♥st❡❛❞ ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣✉t✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ ✉s✐♥❣ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❧❡✈ ❡❧s ✭♦r ❜ ❡t❛ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s✮ ✇ ❡
✇✐❧❧ ✉s❡ t❤❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ♦❢ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ♦❢ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✿
✶✳ ❚❤❡ ♠♦r❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐s t❤❡ ❧❡ss ❝ ❤❛♥❝❡s ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t♦ ❡❛r♥ ❛♥ ❡①❝❡ss r❡t✉r♥
✭t♦ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ r❡t✉r♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t✮ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ❝❧♦s❡❧② t✐❡❞ t♦ t❤❡
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ r❡❛❧✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ss❡t
✷✳ ❚❤❡ ❧❡ss ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✐s t❤❡ ♠♦r❡ ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ ✐t ✐s t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❡①❝❡ss r❡t✉r♥s
✭r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ r❡t✉r♥s ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛ss❡t✮ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ✇✐❧❧ ✈ ❛r② ❞❡✲
♣ ❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜✐❛s❡s✱ ♠❡♥ t❛❧✐t ② ♦r ❝r♦ ✇❞ ♣s②❝ ❤♦❧♦❣② ✳

✶✾✷ ❈❤❛♣t❡r ✽✳ ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s
❚❤❡s❡ r❡s✉❧ts ❛❞❞ ✉♣ t♦ ❛ ✉♥✐❢②✐♥❣ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ t❤❡♦r② ❛❜♦✉t ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts t❤❛t
✇❡ ❝❛❧❧ ✬ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡ts ✬✳ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❝♦♥st❛♥t❧② ♠♦✈❡ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥
❛♥ ✉♥st❛❜❧❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t st❛t❡ ❛♥❞ ❛♥ ❧❛r❣❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥t st❛t❡s ✭♣♦s✐t✐✈❡✴♥❡❣❛✲
t✐✈❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✱ ❤✐❣❤✴❧♦✇ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ♣❡r✐♦❞s✱ ❡t❝✮✳ ❚❤✐s ♣❡r♣❡t✉❛❧ tr❛♥s✐t✐♦♥ ✐s ❞✉❡ t♦
✐♥✈❡st♦rs t❤❛t ♦❜s❡r✈❡ ❞✐♠✐♥✐s❤✐♥❣ r❡t✉r♥s ♦♥ t❤❡✐r str❛t❡❣✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❝❤♦♦s❡ t♦ ✐♠✐t❛t❡
✭♦r ✐♥♥♦✈ ❛t❡✮ t❤❡ ❜❡tt❡r✲♣❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ♦❢ ♦t❤❡r ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✺✳ ❲❤❡♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t
✐s ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠♦st ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ✉s❡ ❛ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ❜❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ str❛t❡❣② ❛♥❞
✇❤❡♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐s ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥t ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ❛ ✈ ❛r✐❡t② ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣❡t✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✭❛♥❞
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐s s❝❛r❝❡❧② ✉s❡❞✮✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ✇❤❡♥ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛r❡ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t
✐t ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ♠♦r❡ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❡✐t❤❡r ❡①✐t t❤❛t ♠❛r❦❡t ♦r ❡♥❣❛❣❡ ✐♥ ♥♦♥✲❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧
str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✭❧✐❦❡ t❤❡ ❝❛s❡ ♦❢ ♦✉r ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs✮✳ ❱✐❝❡✲✈❡rs❛✱ ✐♥ ❛♥ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡t
✐t ♠❛② ❜❡ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❛❞♦♣t ❛ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ str❛t❡❣② ✳
▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞✐r❡❝t❧② t❤❡ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ ✬❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②✬ ♦❢ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐s ♥♦t s✐♠♣❧❡ ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ ✇❡
❞♦ ♥♦t ❤❛✈❡ ❣♦♦❞ ♠♦❞❡❧s ❢♦r t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ r❡❛❧ ❛ss❡ts✳ ș♥st❡❛❞✱ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡
r❡s✉❧ts ❢r♦♠ ♦✉r s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥✱ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ❡♥✈✐s✐♦♥ ♠❡t❤♦❞s ❢♦r ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡❧❛t✐✈❡
str❡♥❣t❤s ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ✐♥✈❡st♦r str❛t❡❣② t②♣❡s ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✭✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞✱ ♥♦t✲✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞✱
tr❡♥❞ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ❡t❝✳✮ ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ❦♥♦✇ ✐❢ ❛ ♠❛r❦❡t ✐s ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤✐♥❣ ♦r ❞✐st❛♥❝✐♥❣ ✐ts❡❧❢
❢r♦♠ ❛♥ ❡✣❝✐❡♥t st❛t❡✳
✺❆ s✉❜✜❡❧❞ ✐♥ ❣❛♠❡ t❤❡♦r② ✱ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ♠✐♥♦r✐t ② ❣❛♠❡s✱ ♦✛❡rs ❣♦ ♦❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ♦❢ ❣❛♠❡s ✇❤❡r❡ t❤❡
♠✐♥♦r✐t② str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✇✐♥s✳ ❲ ❡ r❡❢❡r ② ♦✉ t♦ ✭ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ✷✵✵✺❜ ✮✱ ✭ ▼♦r♦ ✱ ✷✵✵✹ ✮ ♦r ✭ ❙t❛♥❝✐✉✲❱✐③✐t❡✉ ✱
✷✵✶✸ ✮ ❢♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡s ❛♥❞ r❡✈✐❡✇s✳

▲✐st ♦❢ ❋✐❣✉r❡s
✷✳✶ ●❧♦❜❛❧ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✸
✸✳✶ ●❧♦❜❛❧ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ♠❡t❤♦ ❞♦❧♦❣② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✸
✸✳✷ ❊st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝♦rr❡❝t ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❝❡♥ tr❛❧ ❧✐♠✐t t❤❡♦r② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✻
✸✳✸ ❚ r❛♥s❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t♦ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✼
✸✳✹ ✭❜❧❛❝ ❦✮ ❉✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❈❆ ❈✹✵ r❡t✉r♥s✱ ✭❣r❡❡♥✮ ◆♦r♠❛❧ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✳ ✹✸
✸✳✺ ❆✉t♦ ❝♦rr❡❧♦❣r❛♠ ♦❢ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ ❈❆ ❈✹✵ r❡t✉r♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✹
✸✳✻ ❯❙ r❡s✐❞❡♥ t✐❛❧ r❡❛❧✲❡st❛t❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥❞❡① ✭❙♦✉r❝❡✿ ❙✫❍ ❈❛s❡✲❙❤✐❧❧❡r
❍♦♠❡ ❍r✐❝❡ ș♥❞✐❝❡s✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✺
✸✳✼ ș♥ ✷✺✵ ❞❛ ②s t✐♠❡✲♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s✿ ✭❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡✮ ❱ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❈❆ ❈✹✵✱
✭❜ ❡❧♦ ✇✮ ❙✐❣♥❛❧ t♦ ◆♦✐s❡ ❘❛t✐♦ ♦❢ ❈❆ ❈✹✵ r❡t✉r♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✻
✹✳✶ ❘❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❣❡♥❡r✐❝ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✷
✹✳✷ ✭❆✮ ❈❡♥ tr❛❧✐③❡❞ ✭❇✮ ❙❝❛❧❡✲❢r❡❡ ✭❈✮ ❈❧♦s❡❧② ❞✐str✐❜✉t❡❞ ✲ ●r❛♣❤s ✇✐t❤
❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t t♦♣ ♦❧♦❣✐❡s ♦❢ ❝♦♥♥❡❝t✐♦♥s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t ❡♥ t✐t✐❡s ♦❢ ❛ s②st❡♠ ✺✼
✹✳✸ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✢♦ ✇ ♦❢ ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡ ❡✈ ❛❝✉❛t✐♥❣ ❛ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✾
✹✳✹ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ❢r♦♠ ✭ ▲❡✈② ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✵✵ ✮✱ ❝ ❤❛♣t❡r ✼ ♣❛❣❡ ✶✻✷✱ s❤♦ ✇✐♥❣ t❤❡
♠❛r❦ ❡t ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡ ✇✐t❤ ✾✺✪ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ ✺✪ ✧❡✣❝✐❡♥ t
♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡rs✧✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✻
✺✳✶ ❋❧♦ ✇ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥s✐❞❡ t❤❡ ▲❯▼❆ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t♦r ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✵
✺✳✷ ❚ r❛❞✐♥❣ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s ❛♥❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✢♦ ✇s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✷
✺✳✸ ❋ ✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r ❛♥ ❛ss❡t ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t
✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ str❡❛♠ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✹
✺✳✹ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ♠❛❦✐♥❣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✷
✺✳✺ ❚ ②♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✺
✺✳✻ ❚ ②♣ ♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♠❡♥ t str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✭❡①t❡♥❞❡❞✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✼
✺✳✼ ❙♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t♦rs ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✭❣r❡❡♥✮ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r✲
❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✭r❡❞✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✵
✻✳✶ ❘❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❛t✐✈ ❡ r❡s✉❧t ✲ ▼❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✭r❡❞✮ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡
✭❜❧❛❝ ❦✮ ❢♦r ❚ ❡st ✶ ✲ ❜ ❡♥❝ ❤♠❛r❦ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✼

✶✾✹ ▲✐st ♦❢ ❋✐❣✉r❡s
✻✳✷ ❘❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❛t✐✈ ❡ r❡s✉❧t ❢♦r ❚ ❡st ✷✿ ❋ ✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✭❜❧❛❝ ❦✮ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♣r✐❝❡ ✭r❡❞✮ ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✽
✻✳✸ ❊r✐❝❡ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s ✭r❡❞✮ ❢♦r ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✭ rmin>0 ✮ ❛♥❞
♥♦✐s❡ tr❛❞❡rs ✭♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✹✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✶
✻✳✹ ❲ ❡❛❧t❤ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✭ rmin>0 ✮ ❛♥❞ ♥♦✐s❡
tr❛❞❡rs ✭♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✹✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✷
✻✳✺ ❊r✐❝❡ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s ✭r❡❞✮ ❢♦r ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦♥❧② ✇✐t❤ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs ✭♣❛✲
r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✺✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✹
✻✳✻ ❊r✐❝❡ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s ✭r❡❞✮ ❢♦r ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♦♥❧② ✇✐t❤ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs ✇✐t❤
❤✐❣❤❧② ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧❡ r❡t✉r♥ ❡①♣ ❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s✳ ▼❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥ r❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛✲
♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐♥ ❜❧❛❝ ❦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✹
✻✳✼ ●r❛♣❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡
✭♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✻✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✻
✻✳✽ ●r❛♣❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❙❤❛r♣ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❢♦r ❡❛❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t ②♣ ❡
✭♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✻✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✻
✻✳✾ ●r❛♣❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡
✇✐t❤ ♦♣t✐♠✐st ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✽
✻✳✶✵ ●r❛♣❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❢♦r ❡❛❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t ②♣ ❡ ✇✐t❤ ♦♣✲
t✐♠✐st ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✽
✻✳✶✶ ❉②♥❛♠✐❝s ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✇✐t❤ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✶✶✾
✻✳✶✷ ❊①❝❡ss ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇❤❡r❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ♦♣t✐♠✐sts✱
ap ✐♥[0.9,1.4] ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✾
✻✳✶✸ ❊①❛♠♣❧❡ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s ✈ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ♦♣t✐♠✐st✐❝ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭♠❛r✲
❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥ r❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐♥ ❜❧❛❝ ❦✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✶
✻✳✶✹ ❚ ❡st ✼ ✲ ❊①❛♠♣❧❡ ♣r✐❝❡ s❡r✐❡s ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇❤❡r❡ ♣ ❡ss✐♠✐st✐❝ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
r❡♣r❡s❡♥ t ✾✵✪ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✸
✻✳✶✺ ❚ ❡st ✼ ✲ ❊✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ❢♦r ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t t ②♣ ❡s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
✇❤❡r❡ ♣ ❡ss✐♠✐st ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡ ✭st♦ ❝ ❦s ❛r❡ ✉♥❞❡r✈ ❛❧✉❡❞✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✹
✻✳✶✻ ❉✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s ❢♦r t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ❛
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✷ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✻
✻✳✶✼ ❉✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛✲
t✐♦♥ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✷ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✼
✻✳✶✽ ❆✉t♦ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ❛ s✐♠ ✉✲
❧❛t✐♦♥ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✷ ❛♥❞ ❛ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ❧❛❣ ♦❢
✽ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✽

▲✐st ♦❢ ❋✐❣✉r❡s ✶✾✺
✻✳✶✾ ❆✉t♦ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ❛ s✐♠ ✉✲
❧❛t✐♦♥ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ s♣ ❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✷ ❛♥❞ ❛ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ❧❛❣ ♦❢
✷✵ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✽
✻✳✷✵ ❊①❛♠♣❧❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✇✐t❤ ✹✵✪ ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts✱ ✻✵✪ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧②
✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✭♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥ r❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐♥ ❜❧❛❝ ❦✮ ✲ s✐♠✲
✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✹ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✶
✻✳✷✶ ❆♥♦t❤❡r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✇✐t❤ ✸✵✪ ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts✱ ✼✵✪ ♣ ❡r✲
❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✭♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐♥ r❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✐♥ ❜❧❛❝ ❦✮
✲ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✹ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✷
✻✳✷✷ ❊①❛♠♣❧❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ r❡t✉r♥ s❡r✐❡s ✇✐t❤ ♠❛r❦ ❡t s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡✲
t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✹ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✷
✻✳✷✸ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s ✲ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs
❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✹ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✹
✻✳✷✹ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t ② ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ r❡t✉r♥s ✲ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✹ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✹
✻✳✷✺ ❚ ❡st ✾ ❆✉t♦ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠ ❢♦r ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s ✲ s✐♠ ✉✲
❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✹ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✺
✻✳✷✻ ❚ ❡st ✾ ❆✉t♦ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠ ❢♦r ♥♦r♠❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s ✲ s✐♠ ✉❧❛✲
t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✹ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✺
✻✳✷✼ ❊①❛♠♣❧❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ r❡s✉❧ts ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ✸✶✪ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st ✭s❡❡ t❛❜❧❡
✻✳✶✼ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✷
✻✳✷✽ ❊①❛♠♣❧❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ r❡s✉❧ts ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ✸✺✪ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st ✭s❡❡ t❛❜❧❡
✻✳✶✼ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✷
✻✳✷✾ P ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣s ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✐♥ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ✸✺✪
❝ ❤❛rt✐st ✭s❡❡ t❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✼ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✸
✻✳✸✵ ❊①❝❡ss ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t r❡t✉r♥s ✐♥ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤
✸✺✪ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st ✭s❡❡ t❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✼ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✸
✻✳✸✶ ❚ r❛❞✐♥❣ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ✐♥ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ✸✺✪ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st ✭s❡❡
t❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✼ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✹
✻✳✸✷ ❊①❛♠♣❧❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ r❡s✉❧ts ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ✸✶✪ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st ✭s❡❡ t❛❜❧❡
✻✳✶✼ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✻
✻✳✸✸ ❆ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❝❛s❤ ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣ ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❢♦r ❡❛❝ ❤ tr❛❞❡r t ②♣ ❡ ✐♥s✐❞❡ t❤❡ s✐♠ ✉✲
❧❛t✐♦♥ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ❢r♦♠ ✻✳✸✷ ✲ ✇✐t❤ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢♦✉♥❞ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✼ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✻
✻✳✸✹ ❊①❛♠♣❧❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❛♥❞ ❝r❛s❤ ❢r♦♠ ❛ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❧✐❦ ❡ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✼✱ ❜✉t ❝ ❤❛♥❣✐♥❣ µC= 8% ❛♥❞ ♠❡♠♦r②
❧❡♥❣t❤ ♦❢ ✷ ✭✐♥st❡❛❞ ♦❢ µC= 7% ❛♥❞ ♠❡♠♦r② ❧❡♥❣t❤ ♦❢ ✸✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✽
✻✳✸✺ Pr❡s❡♥ t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛❜str❛❝t tr❛❞✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✵

✶✾✻ ▲✐st ♦❢ ❋✐❣✉r❡s
✻✳✸✻ ▼❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ♠♦ ✈ ❡♠❡♥ t ✲ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✶✵ ❛✮ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✾ ✳ ✶✺✶
✻✳✸✼ ❆ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ❡✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♣ ❡r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t ②♣ ❡ ✲ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs
✶✵ ❛✮ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✾ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✶
✻✳✸✽ ▼❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ♠♦ ✈ ❡♠❡♥ t ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✇❤❡r❡ ❛❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡
♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ r❡q✉✐r❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s ✲ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✶✵ ❛✮ ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✾
❛♥❞rmin>0 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✸
✻✳✸✾ ❊✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♦ ✇♥❡rs❤✐♣ ♦❢ st♦ ❝ ❦s ✲ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✶✵ ❛✮ ✐♥
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✾ ❛♥❞ ❛❧❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ r❡q✉✐r❡❞ r❡t✉r♥s✱
rmin>0 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✸
✻✳✹✵ ▼❛r❦ ❡t ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✶ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✷ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✼
✻✳✹✶ ❆ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ♣ ❡r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t ②♣ ❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✶ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✷ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✼
✻✳✹✷ ❆ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❝❛s❤ ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣s ♣ ❡r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t ②♣ ❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✶ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡✲
t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✷ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✽
✻✳✹✸ ❆ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ s✐③❡ ♦❢ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ♣ ❡r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❣r♦✉♣ ✲ t❡st ✶✶ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✷ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✽
✻✳✹✹ ❚ r❛❞✐♥❣ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✷ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✷ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✷
✻✳✹✺ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✷ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✷ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✸
✻✳✹✻ ❆ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ♣ ❡r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t ②♣ ❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✷ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥
❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✷ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✸
✻✳✹✼ ❆ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣s ♣ ❡r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t ②♣ ❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✷ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛✲
r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✷ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✹
✻✳✹✽ ❊✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✸ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✻ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✼
✻✳✹✾ ❊✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ♣ ❡r ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t ②♣ ❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✸ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✻ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✼
✻✳✺✵ ❊✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❡①❝❡ss ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ✲ t❡st ✶✸ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡
✻✳✷✻ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✽
✻✳✺✶ ❊✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❝❛s❤ ❢♦r ❡❛❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t ②♣ ❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✸ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥
♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✻ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✽
✻✳✺✷ ❊✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❢♦r ❡❛❝ ❤ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t ②♣ ❡ ✲ t❡st ✶✸
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✐♥ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✷✻ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✾
✻✳✺✸ ❚❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ tr❛♥s✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❢r♦♠ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② t♦ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✶

▲✐st ♦❢ ❋✐❣✉r❡s ✶✾✼
✼✳✶ ❙❤❛r❦s ❛♥❞ ❛ ♣✐❡❝❡ ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ✇✐t❤ ✻ ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥s ✭✇❤❡r❡ ♣ ♦rt✐♦♥ ✹ ✐s t♦ ①✐❝✮ ✶✼✻
✼✳✷ ❚ ❡st ✶✳ P ♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❡❛t❡♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✾
✼✳✸ ❚ ❡st ✶✳ ❚❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ s❤❛r❦s✬ ❝✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✾
✼✳✹ ❚ ❡st ✶✳ P ♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❡❛t❡♥ ✭✸✵✵✵✵ r♦✉♥❞s✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✵
✼✳✺ ❚ ❡st ✷✳ P ♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❡❛t❡♥ ✭✺✵✵✵ r♦✉♥❞s✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✶
✼✳✻ ❚ ❡st ✷✳ P ♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❡❛t❡♥ ✭✸✵✵✵✵ r♦✉♥❞s✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✶
✼✳✼ ❚ ❡st ✹✳ P ♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❡❛t❡♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✷
✼✳✽ ❚ ❡st ✹✳ ❚❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ s❤❛r❦s✬ ❝✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✷
✼✳✾ ❚ ❡st ✺✳ P ♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♠❡❛t ❡❛t❡♥ ✭✸✵✵✵✵ r♦✉♥❞s✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✸

▲✐st ♦❢ ❚ ❛❜❧❡s
✺✳✶ ❚❤❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❝♦♠♣ ♦♥❡♥ ts ♦❢ ❛ ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡r ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✺
✺✳✷ ❊①❛♠♣❧❡ ❧✐♠✐t✲♦r❞❡r ❜ ♦ ♦❦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✽
✺✳✸ ▼❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ✲ ❝♦♠♣✉t✐♥❣ ❝✉♠ ✉❧❛t✐✈ ❡ q✉❛♥ t✐t✐❡s ❛t ❛❧❧
♣r✐❝❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✽
✺✳✹ ❙t❡♣ ♦♥❡ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ✲ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ❝r✐t❡r✐❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✾
✺✳✺ ❙t❡♣ t ✇ ♦ ❛♥❞ t❤r❡❡ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ✲ ♠✐♥✐♠ ✉♠ s✉r♣❧✉s ❛♥❞
♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r❡ss✉r❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✵
✺✳✻ ❚ r❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥ r❡s♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ❛❢t❡r ♣r✐❝❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✶
✺✳✼ ❇✐❛s ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛♥❞ ❛ss♦ ❝✐❛t❡❞ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r tr❛✐t ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✸
✻✳✶ P ❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢♦r ❚ ❡st ✶✱ ✜rst ❜ ❡♥❝ ❤♠❛r❦ t❡st ✭♥♦ ❛❣❡♥ ts✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✻
✻✳✷ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢♦r ❚ ❡st ✷ ✇✐t❤ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
t❤❛t ❞♦ ♥♦t s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✼
✻✳✸ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢♦r ❛ t❡st ✇✐t❤ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
t❤❛t ❞♦ ♥♦t s♣ ❡❝✉❧❛t❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✵
✻✳✹ P ❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢♦r ❛ t❡st ✇✐t❤ r✐s❦✲❛ ✈ ❡rs❡ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❛♥❞ ♥♦✐s❡ tr❛❞❡rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✶
✻✳✺ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢♦r ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❤❛ ✈✐♥❣ ♦♥❧② t❡❝ ❤♥✐❝❛❧ tr❛❞❡rs ✳ ✳ ✶✶✷
✻✳✻ ❙❝❡♥❛r✐♦ ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ✇✐t❤ ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡❞ ❜✐❛s❡s ❛♥❞ ✇✐t❤♦✉t
❜✐❛s❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✺
✻✳✼ ❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r ✶✵✵ tr✐❛❧ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ✐♥♣✉t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs
❢r♦♠ ❚ ❡st ✹ ✇✐t❤ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ap ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✼
✻✳✽ ❙❝❡♥❛r✐♦ ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ✇✐t❤ ❛♥❞ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❜✐❛s❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✶
✻✳✾ ❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r t❡st ✻ ✲ s❤♦ ✇s t❤❛t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ t❧②
♦ ✈ ❡r❡st✐♠❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ♣r✐❝❡s ✭✐♥ ❡❛❝ ❤ t❡st ✇ ❡ t❛❦ ❡ t❤❡
❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❡①❝❡ss ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥✲
t❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ ✇ ❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r❛❣❡ t❤❡s❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ❛❝r♦ss ❛❧❧ t❤❡
s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✷
✻✳✶✵ ❚ ❡st ✼ ✲ ▼❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ❞♦♠✐♥❛♥ t ♣ ❡ss✐♠✐st✐❝ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✷
✻✳✶✶ ❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r t❡st ✼ ✲ s❤♦ ✇s t❤❛t ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ t❧②
✉♥❞❡r❡st✐♠❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥ t❛❧ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✷
✻✳✶✷ ▼❛r❦ ❡t ✇✐t❤ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ✇✐t❤ ❧❛❣ ✐♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✻

✷✵✵ ▲✐st ♦❢ ❚ ❛❜❧❡s
✻✳✶✸ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢♦r ❡①❝❡ss ❦✉rt♦s✐s ❛♥❞ ❧♦♥❣ ♠❡♠♦r② ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s
❢♦r ✶✵✵ t❡sts ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✷ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✼
✻✳✶✹ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢♦r ❚ ❡st ✾ ✲ ✈ ♦❧❛t✐❧✐t ② ❝❧✉st❡r✐♥❣ ✇✐t❤ t❡❝ ❤♥✐❝❛❧
tr❛❞❡rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✵
✻✳✶✺ ❘♦❜✉st♥❡ss t❡st ❢♦r s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢r♦♠ ❚ ❛❜❧❡ ✻✳✶✹ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✸
✻✳✶✻ ❍②♣ ♦t❤❡s✐s t❡sts ❢♦r t❤❡ ♣r❡s❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✼
✻✳✶✼ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❢♦r ❚ ❡st ✶✵✿ ✇ ❡ ✈ ❛r② t❤❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦rt✐♦♥ ❳ ❢r♦♠
✶✵✵✪ ❞♦ ✇♥ ✇ ❛r❞s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✵
✻✳✶✽ ❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r r❡s✉❧ts ♦❢ ♠ ✉❧t✐♣❧❡ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ♦♥ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥ t
❧❡✈ ❡❧s ♦❢ r❡❧❛t✐✈ ❡ ♣r♦♣ ♦rt✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛rt✐sts t♦ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✵
✻✳✶✾ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❛♥❞ ♥♦t ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✭✇❤✐❝ ❤ ❛r❡
❞♦♠✐♥❛♥ t✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✵
✻✳✷✵ ❙❤❛r♣ ❡ r❛t✐♦s ❢♦r t❡st ✶✵ ❛✮ ✭❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡❞✮ ✇❤❡♥ ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♦rs ❛r❡ ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❤❛ ✈ ❡ rmin= 0% ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✹
✻✳✷✶ ❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r t❡st ✶✵ ❜✮ ✲ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡ ✶✺✹
✻✳✷✷ ❚ ❡st ✶✶ ✲ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡❞ ❜ ② ❝ ❤❛rt✐st tr❛❞❡rs ❛♥❞
✇✐t❤ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ tr❛❞❡rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✻
✻✳✷✸ ❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r ♠ ✉❧t✐♣❧❡ r✉♥s ♦❢ ❚ ❡st ✶✶ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✾
✻✳✷✹ ❚ ❡st ✶✷ ✲ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✭❞♦♠✐♥❛♥ t✮✱ ♥♦t
❜✐❛s❡❞ ♣ ❡r❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭●❖❉✮ ❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦ ✇✐t❤ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥✲
✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✷
✻✳✷✺ ❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r ❚ ❡st ✶✷ ✇✐t❤ ❞♦♠✐♥❛t✐♥❣ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✹
✻✳✷✻ ❚ ❡st ✶✸ ✲ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ ❜✐❛s❡❞✱ ♥♦t ❜✐❛s❡❞ ♣ ❡r✲
❢❡❝t❧② ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✭●❖❉ ♦r ❨ ♦ ❞❛ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✮✱ ❙ș❚❍ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs
❛♥❞ ❛ ❞♦♠✐♥❛♥ t ♣r♦♣ ♦rt✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝ ❤❛rt✐st ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✺
✻✳✷✼ ❙✉♠♠❛r② st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r ❚ ❡st ✶✸ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✾
✼✳✶ ❙❤❛r❦ r❡✇ ❛r❞ str✉❝t✉r❡ ❢♦r ❡✈ ❡r② r♦✉♥❞ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✼
✼✳✷ ❚ ❡st ✶✳ ❈♦♥ t❡①t ❛♥❞ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ str✉❝t✉r❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✾
✼✳✸ ❚ ❡st ✹✳ ❈♦♥ t❡①t ❛♥❞ ♣❛ ② ♦✛ str✉❝t✉r❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✷

❆♣♣❡♥❞✐① ❆
❆♣♣❡♥❞✐①
❆✳✶ ❆r❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❡t❤✐❝❛❧❧② ❡✣❝✐❡♥t❄
ș♥ t❤✐s ❛rt✐❝❧❡ ș ✇✐❧❧ s❤❛r❡ ✇✐t❤ ② ♦✉ ♠ ② t❤♦✉❣❤ ts ❛❜ ♦✉t ❡t❤✐❝s ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ▼② ❛✐♠
✐s t♦ s❤♦ ✇ t❤❛t✱ ❢♦rt✉♥❛t❡❧② ✱ t❤❡ ✇ ♦r❧❞ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❤❛s s♦♠❡ ✐♥ t❡r♥❛❧ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠s ❢♦r
❜ ❡❝♦♠✐♥❣ ♠♦r❡ ✧❡t❤✐❝❛❧✱✧ ❥✉st ❧✐❦ ❡ ❛ ❧✐✈✐♥❣ ♦r❣❛♥✐s♠ ❤❛s t❤❡ ❝❛♣❛❝✐t ② t♦ ❡✈ ♦❧✈ ❡ ❛♥❞
❛❞❛♣t✳ ❚ ♦ st❛rt ✇✐t❤ ș ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ❧✐❦ ❡ t♦ ❝ ❤❛❧❧❡♥❣❡ ② ♦✉✱ t❤❡ r❡❛❞❡r✱ t♦ ❛ ♠❡♥ t❛❧ ❡①❡r✲
❝✐s❡✿ ✧ș♠❛❣✐♥❡ ❛ ✇ ♦r❧❞ ✇❤❡r❡ ❛❧❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧s ❛r❡ ✶✵✵✪ ❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❤✐❣❤❧②
q✉❛❧✐✜❡❞✧✳ ❲❤❛t ♥❡①t❄ ❲✐❧❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❜ ❡ s❛❢❡r❄ ❲✐❧❧ ❝r✐s❡s ❞✐s❛♣♣ ❡❛r❄ ▲❡t✬s ❡①♣❧♦r❡
t❤❡ ❛♥s✇ ❡rs t♦❣❡t❤❡r✳ ❚❤❡ s✉❜♣r✐♠❡ ❝r✐s✐s ❛✛❡❝t❡❞ t❤❡ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s②st❡♠✳ șts
❡✛❡❝ts ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛❧s♦ ❜ ❡❡♥ ✈✐s✐❜❧❡ ✐♥ ♠❛♥ ② ✇ ♦r❧❞ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❡s✳✳✳✳✳✳ ❲❤♦ ✐s ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ❜❧❛♠❡❞✿
t❤❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✱ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝♦♥s✉❧t❛♥ ts✱ ▼❛❞♦✛✱ ❊♥r♦♥✱ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❛❞❡rs ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ❝♦♠♠♦♥
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s❝❛♣ ❡❣♦❛ts❄
❉♦ ❡s t❤✐s s♦✉♥❞ ❢❛♠✐❧✐❛r❄ ❊✈ ❡r② t✐♠❡ s♦♠❡t❤✐♥❣ ❜❛❞ ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥s ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r✲
❦ ❡ts✱ ✧✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✧ ❧♦s❡ ❝♦♥✜❞❡♥❝❡ ✐♥ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛♥❞ t❤❡② st❛rt ❜❧❛♠✐♥❣ ♦t❤❡rs ✭❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧②
✜♥❛♥❝❡ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧s✮✳ ❚❤✐s ♥❛t✉r❛❧ ❞❡❢❡♥❝❡ ♠❡❝ ❤❛♥✐s♠ t❤❡♥ ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t❡s r❡❣✉❧❛t♦r②
❜ ♦ ❞✐❡s t♦ st❛rt t❛❦✐♥❣ ♥❡✇ ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❧✐❦ ❡ ❝r❡❛t✐♥❣ t✐❣❤ t❡r r❡❣✉❧❛t✐♦♥s✱ ♠♦r❡ tr❛♥s✲
♣❛r❡♥❝② ✱ ❜ ❡tt❡r ❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❝♦ ❞❡s ♦r ♦t❤❡r ♥❡✇ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s t♦ ❤❡❧♣ ♣r♦t❡❝t t❤❡ ✇ ❡❛❦ ❛♥❞
❡①♣ ♦s❡❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r✳
❚❤✐s ❧✐♥❡ ♦❢ t❤♦✉❣❤ t ✐s ♥♦t ❡♥ t✐r❡❧② ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡✱ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ✇❤❛t ✇ ❡ ❞♦♥✬t ❤❡❛r ✐s t❤❛t
✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs t❤❡♠s❡❧✈ ❡s ❛r❡ ❛♠♦♥❣ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ❝❛✉s❡s ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❡♥s✉✐♥❣
❝r✐s❡s✳ ș str♦♥❣❧② ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ t❤❛t ❡✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ ❛❧❧ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧s ✇ ❡r❡ ✧✶✵✵✪ ❡t❤✐❝❛❧✧
❛♥❞ ❤✐❣❤❧② q✉❛❧✐✜❡❞✱ ♣r✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❛♥❞ ❝r❛s❤❡s ✇ ♦✉❧❞ st✐❧❧ ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥ ❛♥❞ ✐t ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ❜ ❡
❡♥ t✐r❡❧② t❤❡ ❢❛✉❧t ♦❢ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✳ ▲❡t ♠❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ✇❤ ② t❤✐s ✐s tr✉❡✳
ș♠❛❣✐♥❡ t ✇ ♦ ✐♥ t❡❧❧✐❣❡♥ t ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ♠❛♥❛❣❡rs✱ ✷✐❡rr❡ ❛♥❞ ❏♦❤♥✳ ❚❤❡② ❜ ♦t❤ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇ ❛
❤✐❣❤❧② r❡❣❛r❞❡❞ ❝♦ ❞❡ ♦❢ ❡t❤✐❝s ❛♥❞ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ str♦♥❣ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧ q✉❛❧✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥s✳ ș♥ ✷✵✵✼✱
✷✐❡rr❡ ❛♥❞ ❏♦❤♥ ❤❛❞ t❤❡ ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t ② t♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st ✐♥ ❛ ♥❡✇ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣r♦ ❞✉❝t ❝❛❧❧❡❞
❈❉❖ ✭❝♦❧❧❛t❡r❛❧✐③❡❞ ❞❡❜t ♦❜❧✐❣❛t✐♦♥✮✳ ❚ ♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐♥❣ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ✭❜ ♦t❤
❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ❛❝❝♦r❞❛♥❝❡ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡✐r ❝❧✐❡♥ t✬s ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s✮ t❤❡ t ✇ ♦ ♠❛♥❛❣❡rs ❡♥❣❛❣❡❞
✐♥ ❛ ❞✉❡ ❞✐❧✐❣❡♥❝❡ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❜ ❡st ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣❡ ❛♥❞ s❦✐❧❧s✳ ❏♦❤♥ ❛rr✐✈ ❡❞
❛t t❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ t❤❛t ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❈❉❖s ❝♦✉❧❞ ♦✛❡r ❛ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ r❡t✉r♥ ❛♥❞ ❛♥ ❛❝❝❡♣t❛❜❧❡
❧❡✈ ❡❧ ♦❢ r✐s❦ ❢♦r ❤✐s ❝❧✐❡♥ ts ✭❣✐✈ ❡♥ ❤✐s r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ❛♥❞ ❛❧s♦ t❤❡ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ r❛t✐♥❣s ❞✐s♣❧❛ ② ❡❞
❜ ② ✇✐❞❡❧②✲❛❝❝❡♣t❡❞ r❛t✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥❝✐❡s✮✳ ❙♦ ❏♦❤♥ ❜ ♦✉❣❤ t t❤❡s❡ ♣r♦ ❞✉❝ts✳ ▲✐❦ ❡ ❏♦❤♥✱
✷✐❡rr❡ tr✐❡❞ t♦ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞✱ ❛s ❜ ❡st ❤❡ ❝♦✉❧❞✱ t❤❡s❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣r♦ ❞✉❝ts ② ❡t ❤❡ ❝♦✉❧❞
♥♦t ❛rr✐✈ ❡ ❛t ❛♥ ❛❝❝❡♣t❛❜❧❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡✐r r✐s❦ ❛♥❞ r❡t✉r♥ ♣r♦✜❧❡s✳ ❇❡✐♥❣

✷✵✷ ❆♣♣ ❡♥❞✐① ❆✳ ❆♣♣ ❡♥❞✐①
❝❛✉t✐♦✉s ❜ ② ♥❛t✉r❡✱ ❍✐❡rr❡ ❞❡❝✐❞❡❞ ♥♦t t♦ ❜✉② ❛♥ ② ❈❉❖s ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡❞ t♦ s❡❡❦ ♦t❤❡r
♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t✐❡s✳ ❲❤❛t ❤❛♣♣ ❡♥❡❞ ♥❡①t ✐s t❤❡ ♠♦st ✐♥ t❡r❡st✐♥❣ ♣❛rt✳ ❚❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇✐♥❣ ② ❡❛r✱
✐♥ ✷✵✵✽✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs s❛ ✇ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦s✳ ❙♦♠❡ ♦❢ ❍✐❡rr❡✬s ❝❧✐❡♥ ts ✇ ❡r❡
♥♦t ✈ ❡r② ❤❛♣♣ ② ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts ❛♥❞ ♣ ♦✐♥ t❡❞ ♦✉t t❤❛t ❏♦❤♥✬s ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❤❛❞ ❛ ♠ ✉❝ ❤
❣r❡❛t❡r r❡t✉r♥ ✭❞✉❡ ♠❛✐♥❧② t♦ ❈❉❖ ❣r♦ ✇t❤✮✳ ❍✐❡rr❡✱ ♦❢ ❝♦✉rs❡✱ ❞❡❢❡♥❞❡❞ ❤✐s ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥✱
♣ ♦✐♥ t✐♥❣ ♦✉t t❤❛t ❛ ❈❉❖ ✐s ✈ ❡r② ❝♦♠♣❧❡① ❛♥❞ ✐t ✐s ❞✐✣❝✉❧t t♦ ♣r♦♣ ❡r❧② ❛ss❡ss t❤❡
❛ss♦ ❝✐❛t❡❞ r✐s❦✳ ❙♦♠❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡❞ ❍✐❡rr❡✱ ❜✉t ♦t❤❡rs st♦♣♣ ❡❞ ❞♦✐♥❣ ❜✉s✐♥❡ss
✇✐t❤ ❤✐♠ ❛♥❞ ♠♦ ✈ ❡❞ ❛❧❧ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ t♦ ❏♦❤♥✬s ❝❛r❡✳
ș♥ r❡❛❧✐t ② ✱ ✐♥ ✷✵✵✼ ❛♥❞ ✷✵✵✽✱ ♠❛♥ ② ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧s ❧✐❦ ❡ ❍✐❡rr❡ ✇ ❡♥ t ♦✉t ♦❢
❜✉s✐♥❡ss ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡② ❞✐❞ ♥♦t ❣♦ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❈❉❖ ❣r♦ ✇t❤ ✇ ❛ ✈ ❡✳ ❚❤❡✐r ❝❧✐❡♥ ts ❧❡❢t
t❤❡♠ ❢♦r ❛ ✧❜ ❡tt❡r✧ ♠❛♥❛❣❡r✱ ♦♥❡ t❤❛t ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st ✐♥ ❛ ❈❉❖ ❛♥❞ t❤ ✉s ❣❛✐♥ ❜✐❣❣❡r
✧r❡t✉r♥s✧ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❧❡✈ ❡❧ ♦❢ ✭♣ ❡r❝❡✐✈ ❡❞✮ r✐s❦✳ ❚❤❡ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ st♦r② ✱ t❤❡ s✉❜♣r✐♠❡
❝r✐s✐s ❛♥❞ ✐ts ❡✛❡❝ts✱ ✐s ❤✐st♦r② ✳ ❊①♣❛♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ t❤✐s r❡❝❡♥ t ❡✈ ❡♥ t ❛♥❞ t❤❡ st♦r② ♦❢ ❏♦❤♥
❛♥❞ ❍✐❡rr❡✱ ș ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ t❤❛t ❡✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ ❛❧❧ ❛❞✈✐s❡rs ❛♥❞ ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ♠❛♥❛❣❡rs ✇ ❡r❡ ❝❛✉t✐♦✉s
❧✐❦ ❡ ❍✐❡rr❡ ❛♥❞ ❤❛❞ r❡❢✉s❡❞ t♦ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❈❉❖s✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ❤❛ ✈ ❡
❢♦✉♥❞ ✐♥❞❡♣ ❡♥❞❡♥ t ✇ ❛ ②s t♦ ❜✉② t❤♦s❡ ❤✐❣❤✲r❡t✉r♥✴❧♦ ✇✲r✐s❦ s❡❝✉r✐t✐❡s✱ ✇✐t❤♦✉t t❤❡
❤❡❧♣ ♦❢ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧s✳ ❍✐st♦r② s❤♦ ✇s ✉s t❤❛t ✇ ❡ ❝❛♥ r❡♣❧❛❝❡ t❤❡ ❈❉❖ s❡❝✉r✐t ② ✇✐t❤
❛♥ ②t❤✐♥❣ ❡❧s❡ ✭♣ ❡tr♦❧✱ ❊♥r♦♥ st♦ ❝ ❦✱ t✉❧✐♣s✮ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ✭✐❧✮❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✇✐❧❧
❛♣♣❧② ✳ ❆❢t❡r t❤❡ ❝r❛s❤ ❛t t❤❡ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ ✷✵✵✽✱ ✇❤❡♥ ❈❉❖s ❛♥❞ r❡❧❛t❡❞ s❡❝✉r✐t✐❡s ❧♦st
♠♦st ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ✈ ❛❧✉❡✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs st❛rt❡❞ ❧♦ ♦❦✐♥❣ ❢♦r ❛♥s✇ ❡rs ❛♥❞ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥s ❢♦r t❤❡✐r
❧♦ss❡s✳
❲❤♦ ✐s t♦ ❜❧❛♠❡ t❤❡② ❛s❦ ❡❞❄ ❨ ❡s ♦❢ ❝♦✉rs❡✱ ❏♦❤♥ ✐s t♦ ❜❧❛♠❡ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st❡❞
✐♥ ❈❉❖s✳ ❇✉t ❏♦❤♥ ✇ ♦r❦ ❡❞ t♦ t❤❡ ❜ ❡st ♦❢ ❤✐s ❦♥♦ ✇❧❡❞❣❡ ❛♥❞ ❢♦❧❧♦ ✇ ❡❞ ❛❧❧ ❡t❤✐❝❛❧
❣✉✐❞❡❧✐♥❡s✳ ❍✐s ❢❛✉❧t ✇ ❛s ♠❛ ②❜ ❡ t❤❛t ❤❡ ❝ ❤♦s❡ t♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st ✐♥ ❛ s❡❝✉r✐t ② ❤❡ ❞✐❞ ♥♦t
✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ✈ ❡r② ✇ ❡❧❧ ✭② ❡t ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡ ❧✐❦ ❡ ❏♦❤♥ ♣r♦❜❛❜❧② ❞✐❞ ♥♦t ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❛t t❤❡② ❞✐❞ ♥♦t
♣r♦♣ ❡r❧② ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❈❉❖ r✐s❦s✮✳ ❙♦✱ r❛t✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥❝✐❡s ❛r❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜❧② t♦ ❜❧❛♠❡✳ ❚❤❡②
✇ ❡r❡ ♠✐s❧❡❛❞✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❧❛❝ ❦ ❡❞ ❡t❤✐❝s✳ ❋ ♦❧❧♦ ✇✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❝r❛s❤✱ t❤❡r❡ ✇ ❡r❡ ❧❡❣✐s❧❛t♦rs ✇❤♦
✇ ❛♥ t❡❞ t♦ ♣✉♥✐s❤ r❛t✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥❝✐❡s ❛♥❞ ♠❛❦ ❡ t❤❡♠ ❛❞♦♣t t✐❣❤ t❡r r✉❧❡s✳ ❚❤❡② ♣r♦♣ ♦s❡❞
❛ ❧❛ ✇ t❤❛t ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ❢♦r❜✐❞ r❛t✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥❝✐❡s t♦ ❛♥♥♦✉♥❝❡ ✧❜❛❞ ♥❡✇s✧✱ ❛t ❧❡❛st ❞✉r✐♥❣
t✉r❜✉❧❡♥ t ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣ ❡r✐♦ ❞s✳ ș ❢♦✉♥❞ ✭❢r♦♠ ❛♥ ❛♥♦♥ ②♠♦✉s ✐♥ t❡r♥❡t ❢♦r✉♠ ❝♦♠♠❡♥ t✮
❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ♠✐rr♦rs t❤❡ ❧♦❣✐❝ ❜ ❡❤✐♥❞ t❤✐s ❦✐♥❞ ♦❢ ♣r♦♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥✿ ✧șt✬s
❝♦❧❞ ♦✉ts✐❞❡✳ ▲❡t✬s ❜r❡❛❦ t❤❡ t❤❡r♠♦♠❡t❡r✦✧ ❘❛t✐♥❣ ❛❣❡♥❝✐❡s✱ ❜ ② ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥✱ ♦♣ ❡r❛t❡
✐♥ ❛ st❛t❡ ♦❢ ❝♦♥✢✐❝t ♦❢ ✐♥ t❡r❡st✳ ș♥ ✷✵✵✼ ❛♥❞ ✷✵✵✽ t❤❡r❡ ✇ ❡r❡✱ ❤♦ ✇ ❡✈ ❡r✱ ❝♦♠♣❛✲
♥✐❡s✱ ❛ss♦ ❝✐❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧s t❤❛t s❡♥ t ✇ ❛r♥✐♥❣ ♠❡ss❛❣❡s ❛❜ ♦✉t t❤❡ ❞❛♥❣❡rs
♦❢ ❈❉❖ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐♥❣✳ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ❛❧✇ ❛ ②s s❡♥❞ ❛ ♠✐① ♦❢ r❡❛ss✉r✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ✇ ❛r♥✐♥❣
♠❡ss❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ ✐t ✐s ✉♣ t♦ t❤❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ t❤❡ ✜♥❛❧ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡✳ ❯♥❢♦rt✉♥❛t❡❧② ✱ ❜ ❡❢♦r❡
t❤❡ s✉❜♣r✐♠❡ ❝r✐s✐s✱ ♠❛♥ ② ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❝ ❤♦s❡ t♦ ❧✐st❡♥ ♦♥❧② t♦ t❤❡ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ s✐❣♥❛❧s✳ ❚❤✐s ✐s
♥♦t ✉♥❧✐❦ ❡ ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡ ✇❤♦ s♠♦❦ ❡ ❡✈ ❡♥ t❤♦✉❣❤ ♣❛❝ ❦s ♦❢ ❝✐❣❛r❡tt❡s ❝♦♠❡ ✇✐t❤ ♠❡ss❛❣❡s
❛♥❞ ♣✐❝t✉r❡s ✇ ❛r♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞❛♥❣❡rs ♦❢ s♠♦❦✐♥❣✳ ș♥ s❤♦rt✱ t❤❡ r❡❝❡♥ t ❝r✐s✐s✱ ❧✐❦ ❡
♠❛♥ ② ♦t❤❡rs✱ ❤❛s ❛ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❧❡ ❝❛✉s❡ ❢♦✉♥❞ ✐♥ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦r ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❛♥❞ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡s✳ ❚❤❡s❡
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦✉rs ❛♥❞ ❝ ❤♦✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❜❛❝ ❦ ❡❞ ✉♣ ❜ ② ❛ ❝❛r❡❢✉❧ r❡❛s♦♥✐♥❣ ♣r♦ ❝❡ss ❛♥❞ ❛r❡
♦❢t❡♥ ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t❡❞ ❜ ② ❛ ❜❧✐♥❞ ❞❡s✐r❡ ❢♦r ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ✭s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❣r❡❡❞✮✳ ❚❤✐s ✐rr❛✲
t✐♦♥❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❛♥❞ ✐ts ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❧✐♠✐t❡❞ t♦ t❤❡ ✜❡❧❞ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡

❆✳✶✳ ❆r❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❡t❤✐❝❛❧❧② ❡✣❝✐❡♥t❄ ✷✵✸
❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✐s ❡♥❛❜❧❡❞ ❜ ② ❛❧❧ ❞❡♠♦ ❝r❛t✐❝ s②st❡♠s t❤❛t ❣✐✈ ❡ ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡✱ r❡❣❛r❞❧❡ss ♦❢ t❤❡✐r
❝♦♠♣ ❡t❡♥❝✐❡s✱ t❤❡ ♣r✐✈✐❧❡❣❡ ♦❢ ♠❛❦✐♥❣ t❤❡✐r ♦ ✇♥ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s✳
❲✐t❤ t❤❡ st♦r② ♦❢ ❏♦❤♥ ❛♥❞ ❄✐❡rr❡ ✇ ❡ ✐❧❧✉str❛t❡❞ ❤♦ ✇ ♠❛r❦ ❡t ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❛♥❞ ❝r❛s❤❡s
❝❛♥ ❛♣♣ ❡❛r ❡✈ ❡♥ ✐❢ ❛❧❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧s ❛r❡ ❡t❤✐❝❛❧✳ ❚❤❡r❡❢♦r❡✱ ș ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r t❤❛t
❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✐s ♥❡❝❡ss❛r② ❢♦r ❛❧❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧s ❜✉t ✐s ♥♦t s✉✣❝✐❡♥ t t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡
❝r✐s✐s✲❢r❡❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ ▲❡t✬s ✜rst ❧♦ ♦❦ ❛t ✇❤❛t s❤♦✉❧❞ ❜ ❡ ❞♦♥❡ t♦ ❛❝ ❤✐❡✈ ❡ ❛ ♠❛①✐♠ ✉♠
❧❡✈ ❡❧ ♦❢ ❡t❤✐❝s ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡♥ ✇ ❡ ✇✐❧❧ ♣ ♦✐♥ t ♦✉t ✇❤❛t ✐s ♥❡❡❞❡❞ t♦ ❝♦♠♣❧❡♠❡♥ t
❡t❤✐❝s✳
❆ t ♣r❡s❡♥ t ✇ ❡ ♦❜s❡r✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❡①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ♥ ✉♠❡r♦✉s ❝♦ ❞❡s ♦❢ ❡t❤✐❝s ❛❞♦♣t❡❞ ❜ ②
❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡s✱ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧ ❛ss♦ ❝✐❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❡✈ ❡♥ ❡❞✉❝❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥st✐t✉t✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❝♦ ❞❡s
❛r❡ ♠♦st ♦❢t❡♥ ❛ ✈ ❡r② ❞❡t❛✐❧❡❞ ❧✐st ♦❢ t❤✐♥❣s t♦ ❞♦ ✭❣♦ ♦ ❞ t❤✐♥❣s✮ ❛♥❞ t❤✐♥❣s ♥♦t t♦
❞♦ ✭❜❛❞ t❤✐♥❣s✮ ✇❤✐❧st ❡①❡r❝✐s✐♥❣ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ r❡❧❛t❡❞ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✳ ❲✐t❤ ❛ ❢❡✇ ❡①❝❡♣t✐♦♥s
✭❞✉❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡①✐t ② ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❞❡❛❧✐♥❣s✮ ♠♦st ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞♦✬s ❛♥❞ ❞♦♥✬ts ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡
❝❛♥✱ ✐♥ ♠ ② ✈✐❡✇✱ ❜ ❡ s✉♠♠❛r✐③❡❞ ✐♥ ♦♥❡ s✐♠♣❧❡ ♣❤r❛s❡✿ ✧❉♦♥✬t ❞♦ t❤✐♥❣s t♦ ♦t❤❡rs
t❤❛t ② ♦✉ ✇ ♦✉❧❞ ♥♦t ❧✐❦ ❡ t♦ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❞♦♥❡ t♦ ② ♦✉✦✧ ș ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ t❤❛t t❤✐s s✐♠♣❧✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ✐s
♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♠♦st ❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❣✉✐❞❡❧✐♥❡s ❛r❡ ♣ ❡r❝❡✐✈ ❡❞ ✐♥ t✉✐t✐✈ ❡❧② ❛s ❜ ❡✐♥❣ ❝♦rr❡❝t✳
❙❛✐❞ ♦t❤❡r✇✐s❡✱ ❛❧❧ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧s ❦♥♦ ✇ t❤❛t ✐t ✐s ✇r♦♥❣ t♦ ❞♦ t❤✐♥❣s ❧✐❦ ❡ ❣✐✈ ❡ ❢❛❧s❡
✐♥ t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦r ♠✐s❧❡❛❞ ❝❧✐❡♥ ts ✐♥ t♦ t❛❦✐♥❣ ❛❝t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ❣♦ ❛❣❛✐♥st
t❤❡✐r ❜ ❡st ✐♥ t❡r❡sts✳ ◆❡✈ ❡rt❤❡❧❡ss✱ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧s t❤❛t ❜ ❡♥❞ t❤✐s s✐♠♣❧❡ r✉❧❡✳
❙♦ ❝✐❡t ②✬s r❡❛❝t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡s❡ ♠✐s❞❡❡❞s ✐s s✐♠♣❧❡ ❛♥❞ str❛✐❣❤ t❢♦r✇ ❛r❞✿ s♦♠❡ r❡❝❡✐✈ ❡ ✜♥❡s
❛♥❞ ♣ ❡♥❛❧t✐❡s ♦r ❧♦s❡ t❤❡✐r ❥♦❜s ♦r ❢❛❝❡ ❥✉st✐❝❡✳ ❨ ❡t✱ ✉♥❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✐s ❛ s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧
❦✐♥❞ ♦❢ ♠✐s❞❡❡❞ r❡q✉✐r✐♥❣ ❛ ❧❛r❣❡r ❛♥❞ ♠♦r❡ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ r❡❛❝t✐♦♥ t♦ ❧✐♠✐t t❤❡ ♣ ♦t❡♥ t✐❛❧
❢♦r ❢✉t✉r❡ ❛❜✉s❡✳ ș ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ t❤❛t ❦♥♦ ✇✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❝❛✉s❡s ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ❛❝ts ❝❛♥ ❣r❡❛t❧② ✐♠♣r♦ ✈ ❡
❢✉t✉r❡ ❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣♠❡♥ ts✳
❲❤ ② ❞♦ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧s ❡♥❣❛❣❡ ✐♥ ✉♥❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r❄ ▲❡❛ ✈✐♥❣ ❛s✐❞❡ ♦❜✲
✈✐♦✉s ❛♥s✇ ❡rs✱ ❧✐❦ ❡ ✧t❤❡② ❛r❡ ❜❛❞ ❛♥❞ ❣r❡❡❞②✧✱ ș ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ✜❡❧❞ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝❡
♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡s ❛ s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧ ❝♦♥ t❡①t ❢♦r t❤❡ ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❡t❤✐❝s ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥ t❡rs❡❝t✐♦♥
♦❢ t ✇ ♦ ✉♥✐q✉❡ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✳ ❊t❤✐❝❛❧ ❝♦ ❞❡s ✐♠♣ ♦s❡ ❛ ♠♦r❛❧ ✇ ❛ ② ♦❢ t❤✐♥❦✐♥❣ t❤❛t ✐s ✐♥
❝♦♥ tr❛❞✐❝t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❢♦r✲♣r♦✜t ♠✐♥❞ s❡t ♦❢ ❛❧❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧s✳ ❚❤❡ s❡❝♦♥❞
✉♥✐q✉❡ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ✐s t❤❡ ❞✐✣❝✉❧t ② ✭❛♥❞ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ✐♠♣ ♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t ②✮ ♦❢ ♦❜s❡r✈✐♥❣ t❤❡
❝❛✉s❛❧ ❧✐♥❦ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ♦♥❡✬s ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ t❤❡✐r ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡s✳
❊t❤✐❝s ✐♥ ✈ ♦❧✈ ❡s t❤✐♥❦✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❛❝t✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❛♥ ❡♠♣❛t❤❡t✐❝ ✇ ❛ ② ✳ ș♥ ♣r❛❝t✐❝❡✱ ❡t❤✐❝s ✐♥✲
✈ ♦❧✈ ❡s ❧❡tt✐♥❣ ❣♦ ♦❢ s♦♠❡ ❜ ❡♥❡✜ts ✭♦r ♦♣♣ ♦rt✉♥✐t✐❡s✮ t♦ ❤❡❧♣ ✭♦r ♥♦t ❤ ✉rt✮ ♦t❤❡rs✳ ș♥
t♦t❛❧ ♦♣♣ ♦s✐t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤✐s✱ ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ t❤❡ ❞r✐✈✐♥❣ ❢♦r❝❡ ♦❢ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧✐s♠ ✲ t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥
♦❢ s❡❧❢✲✐♥ t❡r❡st✳ ▼❛①✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ s❡❧❢✲✐♥ t❡r❡st ✐❣♥♦r❡s t❤❡ ❜ ❡♥❡✜ts ♦❢ ❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✲
✐♦r ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡r❡ ✐s ♥♦ ✇✐❞❡❧② ❛❝❝❡♣t❡❞ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❢♦r ✧❜ ❡✐♥❣ ❣♦ ♦ ❞✧✳ ❚❤✐s ✐s ♣r♦❜❛❜❧②
✇❤ ② ♠❛♥ ② ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡ s❡❡ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❡t❤✐❝s ❛s ✐♥❝♦♠♣❛t✐❜❧❡✳ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧s ❛r❡
tr❛✐♥❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ s✉♣♣ ♦s❡❞ t♦ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ t❤❡✐r ❝❧✐❡♥ ts ✭✉t✐❧✐t ② ♦❢ ✮ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤✳ ❆s ❧♦♥❣ ❛s
t❤❡r❡ ✐s ♥♦ ♣r✐❝❡ ✭❛♥❞ ♥♦ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✮ ❢♦r ❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✱ t❤✐s ❝♦♥ tr❛❞✐❝t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s
✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ❛ r❡str✐❝t✐♥❣ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❡t❤✐❝s ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳
ș♥ ❛❞❞✐t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ❝♦♥✢✐❝t ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s✱ ș ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡

✷✵✹ ❆♣♣ ❡♥❞✐① ❆✳ ❆♣♣ ❡♥❞✐①
t❤❛t ❡t❤✐❝s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❡❛s✐❧② ❛♣♣❧✐❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✜❡❧❞ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ❜ ❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ ❝❛✉s❛❧ ❧✐♥❦
❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ♦♥❡✬s ✉♥❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❛♥❞ ✐ts ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡s ✐s ♦❜s❝✉r❡✳ ❋ ♦r ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ❛
❞♦ ❝t♦r ✇❤❡♥ ❢❛❝❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ❤✐s ♣❛t✐❡♥ t ✐s ✈ ❡r② ❛ ✇ ❛r❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡s ♦❢ ♣ ❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣
✉♥♥❡❝❡ss❛r② s✉r❣❡r② ♦r ♦ ✈ ❡r ♣r❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ ❞r✉❣s✳ ❇❡❝❛✉s❡ t❤❡ ❝❛✉s❛❧ ❧✐♥❦ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥
♠❡❞✐❝❛❧❧② ✉♥❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❛♥❞ ✐ts ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡s ✭✐❧❧♥❡ss ♦r ❡✈ ❡♥ ❞❡❛t❤✮ ✐s ❝❧❡❛r✱
♠♦st ❞♦ ❝t♦rs ❛r❡ ♠♦t✐✈ ❛t❡❞ t♦ ❝❧♦s❡❧② ❛❞❤❡r❡ t♦ ✇✐❞❡❧② ❤❡❧❞ ❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❝♦ ❞❡s✳ ❖♥ t❤❡
♦t❤❡r ❤❛♥❞✱ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧s ♦❢t❡♥ s❡❡ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ❛❝t✐♦♥s ♦♥❧② ✐♥ t❤❡
❜ ♦tt♦♠ ❧✐♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ♣ ♦rt❢♦❧✐♦s✳ șt ✐s ♥♦t ❡❛s② t♦ s❡❡ t❤❡ ❧✐♥❦ ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ♦♥❡✬s ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐♥❣
❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ♣ ❡♦♣❧❡ ❧♦s✐♥❣ t❤❡✐r ♣ ❡♥s✐♦♥ ❢✉♥❞s ♦r t❤❡✐r ❤♦♠❡s✳ ș♥ ♠ ② ♦♣✐♥✐♦♥✱ st❛t✐♥❣
t❤❡ ❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❧✐♥❦s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ✉♥❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ❛♥❞ ❧♦ss ♦❢ ❥♦❜s✱ ❤♦♠❡s ❛♥❞ ✇ ❡❛❧t❤ ✐s
✐♥✜♥✐t❡❧② ♠♦r❡ ❡✛❡❝t✐✈ ❡ t❤❛♥ ❛♥ ② ❛❜str❛❝t ♠♦r❛❧ r❤❡t♦r✐❝✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❧✐♥❦s ❡①✐st ❛♥❞
t❤❡✐r ❣❧♦❜❛❧ r❡❝♦❣♥✐t✐♦♥ ✐s ❝r✐t✐❝❛❧ t♦ ❞❡✈ ❡❧♦♣✐♥❣ ❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✳
❲ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ s❡❡♥ ❝♦♥✢✐❝t ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ ♦❜ ❥❡❝t✐✈ ❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♦❜s❝✉r✐t ② ♦❢ ❝❛✉s❛❧ ❧✐♥❦s ❛s t ✇ ♦
❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s t❤❛t ♠❛❦ ❡ ✐t ❞✐✣❝✉❧t ❢♦r ❡t❤✐❝s t♦ ❜ ❡ ❡♠ ❜r❛❝❡❞ ❜ ② ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧s✳
❲ ♦r❦✐♥❣ t♦ ✇ ❛r❞s ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡s❡ ❤✐♥❞❡r✐♥❣ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ✐s ♥❡❝❡ss❛r② ❢♦r ❢✉rt❤❡r ❡t❤✲
✐❝❛❧ ❛❞✈ ❛♥❝❡♠❡♥ t✳ ❚❤❡ ❣♦ ♦ ❞ t❤✐♥❣ ❛❜ ♦✉t ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✐♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ ✐s t❤❛t ✐t ❤❛s ❛ s✉❜t❧❡
♠❡t❤♦ ❞ ❢♦r ❛❞♦♣t✐♥❣ ❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r✿ ❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✳ ❆s ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡✣✲
❝✐❡♥❝② ✱ ș ❜ ❡❧✐❡✈ ❡ t❤❛t ✉♥❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✉❧t✐♠❛t❡❧② ❤❛s ❛ ♣ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦♥ ❢✉t✉r❡
❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ❜ ❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✳ ❲❤❡♥ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✐s ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r❡❞✱ ✐t ✐s ❡①♣❧♦✐t❡❞ ❜ ② ♠❛r❦ ❡t ♣❛r✲
t✐❝✐♣❛♥ ts ✉♥ t✐❧ ✐t ❞✐s❛♣♣ ❡❛rs✳ ❙✐♠✐❧❛r❧② ✱ s✐♥❝❡ t❤❡ ❞✐s❝♦ ✈ ❡r② ♦❢ t❤❡ ✧▼❛❞♦✛ ❡t❤✐❝❛❧
✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②✧✱ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧s ❛r❡ ❞♦✉❜❧❡✲❝ ❤❡❝ ❦✐♥❣ t❤❡✐r ❡♥ ✈✐r♦♥✲
♠❡♥ t ❢♦r s✐♠✐❧❛r ✧✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝✐❡s✧✳ ❲ ❡ ❝❛♥ q✉✐t❡ s❛❢❡❧② s❛ ② t❤❛t ▲ ♦♥③✐✲❧✐❦ ❡ s❝ ❤❡♠❡s
❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❛ ✈ ❡r② s❧✐♠ ❝ ❤❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ ✇ ♦r❦✐♥❣ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ✭♦❢ ❝♦✉rs❡✱ ♣r♦ ✈✐❞❡❞ t❤❛t ❢✉t✉r❡
❣❡♥❡r❛t✐♦♥s ✇✐❧❧ ❧❡❛r♥ ❛♥❞ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❤♦ ✇ t♦ ❛ ✈ ♦✐❞ t❤✐s ✧❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ✐♥❡✣❝✐❡♥❝②✧ ❛♥❞
✐ts ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡s✮✳
ș♥ t❤✐s ❛rt✐❝❧❡ ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ♣ ♦✐♥ t❡❞ t♦ s♦♠❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♦❜st❛❝❧❡s t♦ ❡t❤✐❝s ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳
▼♦r❡♦ ✈ ❡r✱ ✇ ❡ ❤❛ ✈ ❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ t❤❛t ✐♥ t❤❡ ❢✉t✉r❡ ❛♥ ❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧ ❜ ♦ ❞② ✇✐❧❧
♥♦t ❜ ❡ s✉✣❝✐❡♥ t t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❝r✐s✐s✲❢r❡❡ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳ șt ✐s ✐♠♣ ♦rt❛♥ t t♦ ❝♦♥ t✐♥ ✉❡ r❡✜♥✐♥❣
❛♥❞ ✐♠♣r♦ ✈✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❡♥ ✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥ t s♦ t❤❛t ❡t❤✐❝s ❝❛♥ ✢♦✉r✐s❤✱ ❡s♣ ❡❝✐❛❧❧② ❜ ②
❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❛❜ ♦ ✈ ❡✲♠❡♥ t✐♦♥❡❞ r❡str✐❝t✐♥❣ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✳ ș♥ ♠ ② ♦♣✐♥✐♦♥✱ ❤♦ ✇ ❡✈ ❡r✱
❧❡❣✐s❧❛t♦rs ❛♥❞ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧s s❤♦✉❧❞ ❛❧s♦ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st ♠♦r❡ ❡♥❡r❣② ✐♥ ❡❞✉❝❛t✐♥❣ ❛❧❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡t
♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ ts ♣r❡s❡♥ t ❛♥❞ ❢✉t✉r❡✳ ❚❤✐s ❝❛♥ ❜ ❡ ❛❝ ❤✐❡✈ ❡❞ ❜ ② t❡❛❝ ❤✐♥❣ ❝ ❤✐❧❞r❡♥ ❛❜ ♦✉t
❡t❤✐❝s✱ r✐s❦ ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝❡s ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❜ ❡❣✐♥♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r s❝ ❤♦ ♦❧ ❝❛r❡❡rs✳ șt ✐s t❤r♦✉❣❤
❡❞✉❝❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ❢✉t✉r❡ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st♦rs✱ t♦ ❞❛ ②✬s ❝ ❤✐❧❞r❡♥✱ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ❝♦♥s❝✐♦✉s ♦❢ ❛♥❞ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞
r✐s❦s ❛♥❞ r❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞ ✇✐❧❧ ❜ ❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ♠❛❦ ❡ ❜ ❡tt❡r ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s✳ ▲✐❦ ❡✇✐s❡✱
❡❞✉❝❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐❧❧ ❤❡❧♣ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧s s❡❡ t❤❡ ❧✐♥❦s ❜ ❡t ✇ ❡❡♥ t❤❡✐r ❛❝t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ♣ ♦ss✐❜❧❡
❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡s✳ șt ✐s ♦♥❧② t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❡❞✉❝❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ♠❛r❦ ❡ts ✇✐❧❧ ❡✈ ❡♥ t✉❛❧❧② ❜ ❡❝♦♠❡
❡t❤✐❝❛❧❧② ❡✣❝✐❡♥ t✳

❆✳✷✳ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ▲✐♠✐t ❚❤❡♦r② ❢♦r ♥✉♠❜❡r ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ✷✵✺
❆✳✷ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ▲✐♠✐t ❚❤❡♦r② ❢♦r ♥✉♠❜❡r ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s
❚ ♦ s♦❧✈❡ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡ ✐♥ ✸✳✶ ✇❡ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡ ❜❡❧♦✇ ❛♥ ❘ ❝♦❞❡✳ ❲ ❡ ✜rst ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡
t❤❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♣❡♦♣❧❡ tr②✐♥❣ t♦ ❣✉❡ss t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❜❛❧❧s✳ ș♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡ t❤❡
❡st✐♠❛t❡s ❛r❡ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❧② ❞✐str✐❜✉t❡❞ ❜✉t ❛♥② ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ✉s❡❞✳ ❆❢t❡r✇❛r❞s✱
✇❡ t❛❦❡ r❛♥❞♦♠ s❛♠♣❧❡s ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ❡st✐♠❛t❡s ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ ♠❡❛♥ ♦❢ ❡❛❝❤ s❛♠♣❧❡✳
❋✐♥❛❧❧② ✇❡ ❞r❛✇ t❤❡ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠ ♦❢ ❛❧❧ t❤❡ s❛♠♣❧❡ ♠❡❛♥s ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ t❤❡② ❢♦❧❧♦✇ ❛
♥♦r♠❛❧ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❣♦♦❞ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ✭♦❢ ❡①❛❝t❧② t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❜❛❧❧s ✐♥ t❤❡ ❥❛r✮✳
❚❤✐s ❝♦❞❡ ✐s ❡①❡❝✉t❛❜❧❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❘ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ s♦❢t✇❛r❡ ❢r♦♠ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✇✇✇✳r✲♣r♦ ❥❡❝t✳♦r❣✴
◆ ❁− ✶✵✵ ★ r ❡ ❛ ❧ ♥ ✉ ♠ ❜ ❡ r ♦ ❢ ❜ ❛ ❧ ❧ s ✐ ♥ t ❤ ❡ ❥ ❛ r
♣ ♦ ♣ ❙ ✐ ③ ❡ ❁ − ✷✵✵✵✵ ★ ❤♦✇ ♠❛♥② ♣ ❡ ♦ ♣ ❧ ❡ t r ② t ♦ ❣ ✉ ❡ s s t ❤ ❡ ♥ ✉ ♠ ❜ ❡ r
❡ s t ✐ ♠ ❛ t ❡ ❁ − ◆ ❆
❢ ♦ r ✭ ✐ ✐ ♥ ✭ ✶ ✿ ✭ ♣ ♦ ♣ ❙ ✐ ③ ❡ ✴ ✷ ✮ ✮ ∗ ✷ ✮
❡ s t ✐ ♠ ❛ t ❡ ❬ ✐ ❪❁ − ◆ ✰ r ✉ ♥ ✐ ❢ ✭ ✶ ✱ − ✶ ✵ ✱ ✵ ✮ ❀ ★ ❡ s t ✐ ♠ ❛ t ✐ ♦ ♥ s ❛ ❜ ♦ ✈ ❡ ◆
❢ ♦ r ✭ ✐ ✐ ♥ ✭ ✭ ✶ ✿ ✭ ♣ ♦ ♣ ❙ ✐ ③ ❡ ✴ ✷ ✮ ✮ ∗ ✷ ✮− ✶ ✮
❡ s t ✐ ♠ ❛ t ❡ ❬ ✐ ❪❁ − ◆ ✰ r ✉ ♥ ✐ ❢ ✭ ✶ ✱ ✵ ✱ ✶ ✵ ✮ ❀ ★ ❡ s t ✐ ♠ ❛ t ✐ ♦ ♥ s ❜ ❡ ❧ ♦ ✇ ◆
♠✐ ❁− ◆ ❆
s ✐ ③ ❡ ❂ ✶ ✵ ✵ ✵ ❀
♥ ❜ ❴ s ❛ ♠ ♣ ❧ ❡ s ❂ ♣ ♦ ♣ ❙ ✐ ③ ❡ ✴ ✹ ❀
❢ ♦ r ✭ ✐ ✐ ♥ ✭ ✶ ✿ ♣ ♦ ♣ ❙ ✐ ③ ❡ ✴ ✹ ✮ ✮
♠✐ ❬ ✐ ❪ ❂ ♠❡❛♥ ✭ s ❛ ♠ ♣ ❧ ❡ ✭ ❡ s t ✐ ♠ ❛ t ❡ ✱ s ✐ ③ ❡ ✮ ✮ ❀ ★ ❛ ✈ ❡ r ❛ ❣ ❡ s ♦ ❢ s ❛ ♠ ♣ ❧ ❡ s ♦ ❢ ❡ s t ✐ ♠ ❛ t ✐ ♦ ♥ s
❤ ✐ s t ✭ ♠✐ ✱ ♥ ❝ ❧ ❛ s s ❂ ✶ ✵ ✵ ✮ ★ ❤ ✐ s t ♦ ❣ r ❛ ♠ ♦ ❢ ❛ ❧ ❧ s ❛ ♠ ♣ ❧ ❡ ❛ ✈ ❡ r ❛ ❣ ❡ s
❆✳✸ ❙✐❣♥❛❧ t♦ ♥♦✐s❡ ❘❛t✐♦
❚❤❡ ❙✐❣♥❛❧ t♦ ◆♦✐s❡ ❘❛t✐♦ ♦❢ ❈❆❈✹✵ ✐♥❞✐❝❡s ✇❛s ❝♦♠♣✉t❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❝♦❞❡ ❜❡✲
❧♦✇✳ ❚❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ q✉♦t❡s ♦❢ ❈❆❈✹✵ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❢♦✉♥❞ ♦♥ ❨ ❛❤♦♦ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡✳ ❲ ❡ ❞r❛✇ t❤❡
❛tt❡♥t✐♦♥ t❤❛t t❤❡ q✉♦t❡s ❢r♦♠ ❨ ❛❤♦♦ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ st❛rt ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❧❛st q✉♦t❡✱ s♦ t❤❡②
♥❡❡❞ t♦ ❜❡ ✐♥✈❡rt❡❞ ✇❤❡♥ ❝♦♠♣✉t✐♥❣ r❡t✉r♥s✳ ❚❤❡ ❝♦❞❡ ❜❡❧♦✇ r❡❛❞s ♣r✐❝❡ q✉♦t❡s
✭✇❤❡r❡ t❤❡ ✜rst q✉♦t❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✜❧❡ ✐s t❤❡ ♠♦r❡ r❡❝❡♥t q✉♦t❡✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡♥ ✐♥✈❡rts t❤❡♠
✇❤❡♥ ❝♦♠♣✉t✐♥❣ r❡t✉r♥s✳ ❚❤✐s ❝♦❞❡ ✐s ❡①❡❝✉t❛❜❧❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❘ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ s♦❢t✇❛r❡
❢r♦♠ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✇✇✇✳r✲♣r♦ ❥❡❝t✳♦r❣✴✳ ❆ ✈❡rs✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❈❆❈✹✵ ♣r✐❝❡ q✉♦t❡s ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❢♦✉♥❞ ❛t
❤tt♣✿✴✴❝❡r❛❣✳♦r❣✴❧✉❝✐❛♥st❛♥❝✐✉✴t❛❜❧❡✳❝s✈
★ ❝ ♦ ♠ ♣ ✉ t ❡ r ❡ t ✉ r ♥ s ❢ r ♦ ♠ ♣ r ✐ ❝ ❡ s
❆ ❂r ❡ ❛ ❞ ✳ t ❛ ❜ ❧ ❡ ✭ ✬ t ❛ ❜ ❧ ❡ ✳ ❝ s ✈ ✬ ✱ s ❡ ♣ ❂ ✬ ✱ ✬ ✮ ❀

✷✵✻ ❆♣♣ ❡♥❞✐① ❆✳ ❆♣♣ ❡♥❞✐①
★✐ ♥ ✈ ❡ r s ✐ ♦ ♥ ♦ ❢ ♣ r ✐ ❝ ❡ q ✉ ♦ t ❡ s ✳
★ r ❡ ♠ ♦ ✈ ❡ ✐ ❢ ❢ ✐ r s t q ✉ ♦ t ❡ ✐ s t ❤ ❡ ♦ ❧ ❞ ❡ s t ✭ ♥ ♦ t t ❤ ❡ ♥ ❡ ✇ ❡ s t ✮
✹ ❂ ❆ ❬ r ❡ ✈ ✭ ✶ ✿ ❧ ❡ ♥ ❣ t ❤ ✭❆ ❬ ✱ ✶ ❪ ✮ ✮ ✱ ✶ ❪ ❀
❘ ❂r ❡ ♣ ✭ ✵ ✱ ❧ ❡ ♥ ❣ t ❤ ✭ ✹ ✮ − ✶ ✮ ❀
❢ ♦ r ✭ ✐ ✐ ♥ ✷ ✿ ❧ ❡ ♥ ❣ t ❤ ✭ ✹ ✮ ✮
❘ ❬ ✐− ✶❪❂ ❧ ♦ ❣ ✭ ✹ ❬ ✐ ❪ ✴ ✹ ❬ ✐ − ✶ ❪ ✮ ❀
★ ❝ ❛ ❧ ❝ ✉ ❧ s ✐ ❣ ♥ ❛ ❧ − t ♦− ♥ ♦ ✐ s ❡ ❛ ♥ ❞ ♣ ❡ r ✐ ♦ ❞ ✐ ❝ ✈ ♦ ❧ ❛ t ✐ ❧ ✐ t ②
✇ ✐ ♥ ❞ ♦ ✇ ❂ ✷ ✺ ✵ ❀ ★ ❤♦✇ ♠❛♥② r ❡ t ✉ r ♥ s t ♦ ❣ ❡ t ✐ ♥ ❛ s ❛ ♠ ♣ ❧ ❡ ♠❡❛♥ ❛ ♥ ❞ ✈ ♦ ❧ ❛ t ✐ ❧ ✐ t ②
❈ ❂r ❡ ♣ ✭ ✵ ✱ ❧ ❡ ♥ ❣ t ❤ ✭❘ ✮ − ✇ ✐ ♥ ❞ ♦ ✇ ✮ ❀
❙t◆ ❂r ❡ ♣ ✭ ✵ ✱ ❧ ❡ ♥ ❣ t ❤ ✭ ❘ ✮ − ✇ ✐ ♥ ❞ ♦ ✇ ✮ ❀
❢ ♦ r ✭ ✐ ✐ ♥ ✇ ✐ ♥ ❞ ♦ ✇ ✰ ✶ ✿ ❧ ❡ ♥ ❣ t ❤ ✭ ❘✮ − ✶ ✮ ④
❙t◆ ❬ ✐− ✇ ✐ ♥ ❞ ♦ ✇ ❪ ❂ ♠❡❛♥ ✭❘ ❬ ✐ − ✇ ✐ ♥ ❞ ♦ ✇ ✿ ✐ ❪ ✮ ✴ s ❞ ✭ ❘ ❬ ✐ − ✇ ✐ ♥ ❞ ♦ ✇ ✿ ✐ ❪ ✮ ❀
❈ ❬ ✐− ✇ ✐ ♥ ❞ ♦ ✇ ❪ ❂ s ❞ ✭ ❘ ❬ ✐ − ✇ ✐ ♥ ❞ ♦ ✇ ✿ ✐ ❪ ✮ ❀
⑥
❛ ❢ ❢ ✐ ❝ ❤ ❛ ❣ ❡ ❴ s ❛ ♥ s ❴ ♣ r ❡ ♠ ✐ ❡ r ❡ ❴ ♦ ❜ s ❂ ✷ ✺ ✵ ❀
♣ ❧ ♦ t ✭ ❙t◆ ❬ ❛ ❢ ❢ ✐ ❝ ❤ ❛ ❣ ❡ ❴ s ❛ ♥ s ❴ ♣ r ❡ ♠ ✐ ❡ r ❡ ❴ ♦ ❜ s ✿ ❧ ❡ ♥ ❣ t ❤ ✭ ❙t◆ ✮ ❪ ✱ ✳ ✳ ✳
t ② ♣ ❡ ❂✧ ❧ ✧ ✱ ♠ ❛ ✐ ♥❂✧ ❈❆❈✹✵ s ❞ ✭ ♣ ❡ r ✐ ♦ ❞ s ✇ ✐ ♥ ❞ ♦ ✇ ✮ ✧ ✮ ❀

❇✐❜❧✐♦❣r❛♣❤②
❆❜r❡✉✱ ▼❛r❣❛r✐❞❛✱ ❛♥❞ ❱✐❝t♦r ▼❡♥❞❡s✳ ✏ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱ ❖✈❡r❝♦♥✜❞❡♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❚ r❛❞✐♥❣✿
❉♦ t❤❡ ❙♦✉r❝❡s ♦❢ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ▼❛tt❡r❄✑ ❲ ♦r❦✐♥❣ ②❛♣❡rs ✷✵✶✶✴✷✺✱ ❉❡♣❛rt♠❡♥t ♦❢
❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ❛t t❤❡ ❙❝❤♦♦❧ ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ❛♥❞ ▼❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ✭ș❙❊●✮✱ ❚ ❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧ ❯♥✐✲
✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ ▲✐s❜♦♥✳✱ ✷✵✶✶✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴♣✴✐s❡✴✐s❡❣✇♣✴✇♣✷✺✷✵✶✶✳
❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✹ ✳✮
❆❧❝❤✐❛♥✱ ❆r♠❡♥ ❆✳ ✏ ❯♥❝❡rt❛✐♥t② ✱ ❊✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥✱ ❛♥❞ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❚❤❡♦r②✳✑ ❚❤❡ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧
♦❢ ②♦❧✐t✐❝❛❧ ❊❝♦♥♦♠② ✺✽✱ ✸✿ ✭✶✾✺✵✮ ✷✶✶✕✷✷✶✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✇✇✇✳❥st♦r✳♦r❣✴st❛❜❧❡✴
✶✽✷✼✶✺✾ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✷✽ ✳✮
❆❧❧❡♥✱ ❋ r❛♥❦❧✐♥✱ ❛♥❞ ❉♦✉❣❧❛s ●❛❧❡✳ ✏❆ss❡t ②r✐❝❡ ❇✉❜❜❧❡s ❛♥❞ ▼♦♥❡t❛r② ②♦❧✐❝② ✳✑
❈❡♥t❡r ❢♦r ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ș♥st✐t✉t✐♦♥s ❲ ♦r❦✐♥❣ ②❛♣❡rs ✵✶✲✷✻✱ ❲❤❛rt♦♥ ❙❝❤♦♦❧ ❈❡♥✲
t❡r ❢♦r ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ș♥st✐t✉t✐♦♥s✱ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ ②❡♥♥s②❧✈ ❛♥✐❛✱ ✷✵✵✵✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳
r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴♣✴✇♦♣✴♣❡♥♥✐♥✴✵✶✲ ✷✻✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✶✸✵ ✳✮
❆♠❛t✱ ❖r✐♦❧✱ ❛♥❞ ❈❛t❤❡r✐♥❡ ●♦✇t❤♦r♣❡✳ ✏❈r❡❛t✐✈❡ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t✐♥❣✿ ◆❛t✉r❡✱ ✐♥❝✐❞❡♥❝❡
❛♥❞ ❡t❤✐❝❛❧ ✐ss✉❡s✳✑ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ✇♦r❦✐♥❣ ♣❛♣❡rs✱ ❉❡♣❛rt♠❡♥t ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ❛♥❞
❇✉s✐♥❡ss✱ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t❛t ②♦♠♣❡✉ ❋ ❛❜r❛✱ ✷✵✵✹✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❊❝♦♥P❛♣❡rs✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴
❘❡P❊❝✿✉♣❢✿✉♣❢❣❡♥✿✼✹✾ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✼ ✳✮
❆♥❞❡rs♦♥✱ ② ✳ ❲✳ ✏▼♦r❡ șs ❉✐✛❡r❡♥t✳✑ ❙❝✐❡♥❝❡ ✶✼✼✱ ✹✵✹✼✿ ✭✶✾✼✷✮ ✸✾✸✕✸✾✻✳ ❤tt♣✿
✴✴✇✇✇✳s❝✐❡♥❝❡♠❛❣✳♦r❣✴❝♦♥t❡♥t✴✶✼✼✴✹✵✹✼✴✸✾✸✳s❤♦rt ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✺✶
❛♥❞ ✺✷ ✳✮
❆rt❤✉r✱ ❲ ❇r✐❛♥✳ ✏❉❡s✐❣♥✐♥❣ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❆❣❡♥ts t❤❛t ❆❝t ▲✐❦❡ ❍✉♠❛♥ ❆❣❡♥ts✿ ❆
❇❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧ ❆♣♣r♦❛❝❤ t♦ ❇♦✉♥❞❡❞ ❘❛t✐♦♥❛❧✐t② ✳✑ ❆♠❡r✐❝❛♥ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ✽✶✱ ✷✿
✭✶✾✾✶✮ ✸✺✸✕✺✾✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❛✴❛❡❛✴❛❡❝r❡✈✴✈✽✶②✶✾✾✶✐✷♣✸✺✸✲ ✺✾✳
❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✶✼✹ ✳✮
❇✳✱ ❖✳ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ② ✳ ❇❡❛✉✜❧s✱ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✏❯♥❡ ❛♥❛❧②s❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡①✐t❡ ❞❡s ❞②♥❛♠✐q✉❡s
✜♥❛♥❝✐❡r❡s ❛ ❧✬❛✐❞❡ ❞❡ ♠♦❞❡❧❡s ♠✉❧t✐✲❛❣❡♥ts✳✑ ◗✉✬❛♣♣❡❧❧❡✲t✲♦♥ ❛✉❥♦✉r❞✬❤✉✐ ❧❡s
s❝✐❡♥❝❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡①✐t❡ ✶✽✺✕✷✶✷✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✾ ✳✮
❇❛❝❤❡❧✐❡r✱ ▲✳ ❚❤❡♦r✐❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ s♣❡❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥✳ ●❛✉t❤✐❡r✲❱✐❧❧❛rs✱ ✶✾✵✵✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❜♦♦❦s✳
❣♦♦❣❧❡✳❢r✴❜♦♦❦s❄✐❞❂❆◆❏❯❆❆❆❆❨❆❆❏ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✵ ✳✮
❇❛r❜❡r✐s✱ ◆✐❝❤♦❧❛s✱ ❛♥❞ ❘✐❝❤❛r❞ ❚❤❛❧❡r✳ ✏❆ s✉r✈❡② ♦❢ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳✑ ș♥
❍❛♥❞❜♦♦❦ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡✱ ❡❞✐t❡❞ ❜② ●✳▼✳ ❈♦♥st❛♥t✐♥✐❞❡s✱ ▼✳ ❍❛r✲
r✐s✱ ❛♥❞ ❘✳ ▼✳ ❙t✉❧③✱ ❊❧s❡✈✐❡r✱ ✷✵✵✸✱ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ✶ ♦❢ ❍❛♥❞❜♦♦❦ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s
♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡✱ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✶✽✱ ✶✵✺✸✕✶✶✷✽✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❤✴❡❡❡✴❢✐♥❝❤♣✴
✷✲ ✶✽✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✵ ✳✮
❇❛rr❡✈❡❧❞✱ ❉✳❏✳ ❚❤❡ ❊♥r♦♥ ❈♦❧❧❛♣s❡✿ ❈r❡❛t✐✈❡ ❆❝❝♦✉♥t✐♥❣✱ ❲ r♦♥❣ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ❖r
❈r✐♠✐♥❛❧ ❆❝ts❄ ✿ ❛ ▲♦♦❦ ș♥t♦ t❤❡ ❘♦♦t ❈❛✉s❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ▲❛r❣❡st ❇❛♥❦r✉♣t❝② ✐♥

✷✵✽ ❇✐❜❧✐♦❣r❛♣❤ ②
❯✳❙✳ ❍✐st♦r②✳ ❲ r✐t❡rs ❈❧✉❜ ✾r❡ss✱ ✷✵✵✷✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❜♦♦❦s✳❣♦♦❣❧❡✳❝❛✴❜♦♦❦s❄✐❞❂
✉③❉❤❩✺❱✶♣❩❣❈ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✼ ✳✮
❇❛rr② ✱ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❇✳✱ ❛♥❞ ❘♦❜❡rt ❍✳ ❏❡♥♥✐♥❣s✳ ✏ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❉✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ ❆♥✲
❛❧②st ❖♣✐♥✐♦♥✳✑ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❛♥❞ ◗✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❡ ❆♥❛❧②s✐s ✷✼✱ ✵✷✿ ✭✶✾✾✷✮
✶✻✾✕✶✽✸✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❊❝♦♥◗❛♣❡rs✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❘❡◗❊❝✿❝✉♣✿❥❢✐♥q❛✿✈✿✷✼✿②✿✶✾✾✷✿✐✿
✵✷✿♣✿✶✻✾✲ ✶✽✸❴✵✵ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✹ ✳✮
❇❡❛ttr✐❝❡✱ ❱❧❛❞✉ ❆❧✐♥❛✱ ❛♥❞ ❆❞r✐❛♥ ●r♦s❛♥✉✳ ✏❙❖▼❊ ș◆❙ș●❍❚❙ ❘❊●❆❘❉ș◆●
❈❘❊❆ ❚ș❱❊ ❆❈❈❖❯◆❚ș◆● ș◆ ❘❖▼❆◆ș❆◆ ❆❈❈❖❯◆❚ș◆● ❊◆❱ș❘❖◆▼❊◆❚
✲ ❘❊●❯▲❆ ❚❖❘❙✱ ❋ș◆❆◆❈ș❆▲ ❆❯❉ș❚❖❘❙ ❆◆❉ ✾❘❖❋❊❙❙ș❖◆❆▲ ❇❖❉ș❊❙
❖✾ș◆ș❖◆✳✑ ❆♥♥❛❧s ♦❢ ❋ ❛❝✉❧t② ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ✶✱ ✶✿ ✭✷✵✶✶✮ ✻✻✶✕✻✻✽✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥
♣❛❣❡ ✸✼ ✳✮
❇❡❛✉✜❧s✱ ❇✳✱ ❛♥❞ ❖✳ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✳ ✏❆rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s✿ ❆❣❡♥t✲❇❛s❡❞ ▼❡t❤♦❞s ✐♥
❋✐♥❛♥❝❡✱ ●❛♠❡ ❚❤❡♦r② ✫ ❚❤❡✐r ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s✳✑ ▲❡❝t✉r❡ ♥♦t❡s ✐♥ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ✫
▼❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❙②st❡♠s ✺✻✹✿ ✭✷✵✵✺✮ ✵✷✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✾ ✳✮
❇❡❛✉✜❧s✱ ❇✳✱ ❖✳ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ▲✳ ▼❛✱ ❛♥❞ ✾ ✳ ▼❛t❤✐❡✉✳ ✏❙✐♠✉❧❡r ♣♦✉r ❝♦♠♣r❡♥❞r❡✿ ❯♥❡
❡①♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡s ❞②♥❛♠✐q✉❡s ❞❡ ♠❛r❝❤❡s ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡rs ♣❛r ❧❡s s②st❡♠❡s ♠✉❧t✐✲❛❣❡♥ts✳✑
❙②st❡♠❡s ❞✬ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❡t ▼❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ✶✹✱ ✹✿ ✭✷✵✵✾✮ ✶✕✷✻✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✻ ✳✮
❇❡❜❝③✉❦✱ ❘✳◆✳ ❆s②♠♠❡tr✐❝ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ▼❛r❦❡ts✿ ș♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞
❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❈❛♠❜r✐❞❣❡ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ✾r❡ss✱ ✷✵✵✸✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❜♦♦❦s✳❣♦♦❣❧❡✳❢r✴
❜♦♦❦s❄✐❞❂❞❊◗t✶❘③✹③✻❊❈ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✹ ✳✮
❇❡❧tr❛tt✐✱ ❆✳❊✳✱ ❛♥❞ ❙✳ ▼❛r❣❛r✐t❛✳ ❊✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❚ r❛❞✐♥❣ ❙tr❛t❡❣✐❡s ❆♠♦♥❣
❍❡t❡r♦❣❡♥♦✉s ❆rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❆❣❡♥ts✳ ◆♦t❛ ❞✐ ❧❛✈♦r♦✳ ✶✾✾✷✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❜♦♦❦s✳
❣♦♦❣❧❡✳❢r✴❜♦♦❦s❄✐❞❂❜◆◗❘t✇❆❆❈❆❆❏ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✼✸ ✳✮
❇❡r♥♦✉❧❧✐✱ ❉❛♥✐❡❧✳ ✏ ❊①♣♦s✐t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ◆❡✇ ❚❤❡♦r② ♦♥ t❤❡ ▼❡❛s✉r❡♠❡♥t ♦❢ ❘✐s❦✳✑
❊❝♦♥♦♠❡tr✐❝❛ ✷✷✱ ✶✿ ✭✶✾✺✹✮ ✷✸✕✸✻✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❞①✳❞♦✐✳♦r❣✴✶✵✳✷✸✵✼✴✶✾✵✾✽✷✾ ✳
✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✹✼ ✳✮
❇❧❛❝❦✱ ❋✐s❝❤❡r✳ ✏◆♦✐s❡✳✑ ❚❤❡ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✹✶✱ ✸✿ ✭✶✾✽✻✮ ♣♣✳ ✺✷✾✕✺✹✸✳ ❤tt♣✿
✴✴✇✇✇✳❥st♦r✳♦r❣✴st❛❜❧❡✴✷✸✷✽✹✽✶ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✶✶✵ ✳✮
❇❧✉♠❡✱ ▲❛rr② ✱ ❛♥❞ ❉❛✈✐❞ ❊❛s❧❡② ✳ ✏ș❢ ❨ ♦✉✬r❡ ❙♦ ❙♠❛rt✱ ❲❤② ❆r❡♥✬t ❨ ♦✉ ❘✐❝❤❄ ❇❡❧✐❡❢
❙❡❧❡❝t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❈♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ❛♥❞ ș♥❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ ▼❛r❦❡ts✳✑ ❈♦✇❧❡s ❋ ♦✉♥❞❛t✐♦♥ ❉✐s❝✉ss✐♦♥
✾❛♣❡rs ✶✸✶✾✱ ❈♦✇❧❡s ❋ ♦✉♥❞❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✐♥ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s✱ ❨ ❛❧❡ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ✱ ✷✵✵✶✳
❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴♣✴❝✇❧✴❝✇❧❞♣♣✴✶✸✶✾✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✷✾ ✳✮
❇♦✱ ❨ ❛♥❣✱ ❲ ✉ ❨ ♦♥❣✲❣❛♥❣✱ ❛♥❞ ❲ ❛♥❣ ❈❤❡♥❣✳ ✏❆ ▼✉❧t✐✲❛❣❡♥t ❛♥❞ ●ș❙ ❇❛s❡❞ ❙✐♠✉✲
❧❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ❊♠❡r❣❡♥❝② ❊✈ ❛❝✉❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ✾❛r❦ ❛♥❞ ✾✉❜❧✐❝ ❙q✉❛r❡✳✑ ș♥ ❈♦♠♣✉t❛t✐♦♥❛❧
ș♥t❡❧❧✐❣❡♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❙❡❝✉r✐t② ✱ ✷✵✵✾✳ ❈ș❙ ✬✵✾✳ ș♥t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❈♦♥❢❡r❡♥❝❡ ♦♥✳ ✷✵✵✾✱ ✈♦❧✲
✉♠❡ ✶✱ ✷✶✶ ✕✷✶✻✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✽ ✳✮

❇✐❜❧✐♦❣r❛♣❤② ✷✵✾
❇♦tt❛③③✐✱ ●✐✉❧✐♦✱ ❛♥❞ ▼✐❦❤❛✐❧ ❆♥♦✉❢r✐❡✈✳ ✏❘r✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❲ ❡❛❧t❤ ❉②♥❛♠✐❝s ✐♥ ❛♥ ❆❣❡♥t✲
❇❛s❡❞ ▼♦❞❡❧ ✇✐t❤ ❍❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s ❊✈♦❧✈✐♥❣ ❙tr❛t❡❣✐❡s✳✑ ❈♦♠♣✉t✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s
❛♥❞ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✷✵✵✹ ✷✷✼✱ ❙♦❝✐❡t② ❢♦r ❈♦♠♣✉t❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s✱ ✷✵✵✹✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴
❊❝♦♥P❛♣❡rs✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❘❡P❊❝✿s❝❡✿s❝❡❝❢✹✿✷✷✼ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✾ ✳✮
❇♦tt❛③③✐✱ ●✐✉❧✐♦✱ ●✐♦✈ ❛♥♥✐ ❉♦s✐✱ ❛♥❞ ș❣♦r ❘❡❜❡s❝♦✳ ✏ș♥st✐t✉t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛r❝❤✐t❡❝t✉r❡s
❛♥❞ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧ ❡❝♦❧♦❣✐❡s ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳✑ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢
▼❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ✹✶✱ ✶✲✷✿ ✭✷✵✵✺✮ ✶✾✼✕✷✷✽✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴
❛✴❡❡❡✴♠❛t❡❝♦✴✈✹✶②✷✵✵✺✐✶✲ ✷♣✶✾✼✲ ✷✷✽✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✼✸ ✳✮
❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ❖✳ ✏❈♦♠♣❧❡①✐t❡ ❡t ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❡s ❝r✐t✐q✉❡s ❡♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳✑ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✺ ✳✮
✳ ✏❙t♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛s ▼✐♥♦r✐t② ●❛♠❡s✿ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡✐t② ❛♥❞ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠
❡♠❡r❣❡♥❝❡✳✑ ❘❤②s✐❝❛ ❆✿ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ▼❡❝❤❛♥✐❝s ❛♥❞ ✐ts ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ✸✹✾✱ ✶✿ ✭✷✵✵✺❜✮
✸✵✷✕✸✷✽✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✺✼ ❛♥❞ ✶✾✷ ✳✮
❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ❖✳✱ ❘ ✳ ❇❛r♥❡t♦✱ ❛♥❞ ▲✳❆✳ ▲❡❣❡r✳ ✏ș♥s✐❞❡r tr❛❞✐♥❣✱ ✐♠✐t❛t✐✈❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦✉r
❛♥❞ ♣r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❛ st✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞ ❞♦✉❜❧❡✲❛✉❝t✐♦♥ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡t✳✑ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s
❲ ♦r❦✐♥❣ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ❘❛♣❡r ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✼ ✳✮
❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ❖✳✱ ❆✳ ❈♦r❡❧❧✐✱ ș✳ ❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦♦✱ ❛♥❞ ❘✳ ❲ ❛❧❞❡❝❦✳ ✏❆ r❡✲❡①❛♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡
✧③❡r♦ ✐s ❡♥♦✉❣❤✧ ❤②♣♦t❤❡s✐s ✐♥ t❤❡ ❡♠❡r❣❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ st②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts✳✑ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧
♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ș♥t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❈♦♦r❞✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ✶✕✷✻✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✹✹ ✳✮
❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ❖✳✱ ❛♥❞ ❘ ✳ ▼❛t❤✐❡✉✳ ✏❆ ❈♦♥❝❡♣t✉❛❧ ❋ r❛♠❡✇♦r❦ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❊✈ ❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢
❆❣❡♥t✲❇❛s❡❞ ❚ r❛❞✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❚ ❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧ ❆♥❛❧②s✐s✳✑ ❆rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ▼❛r❦❡ts ▼♦❞❡❧✐♥❣ ✻✸✕
✼✾✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✻✶ ✳✮
❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ❖✳✱ ❘ ✳ ▼❛t❤✐❡✉✱ ❛♥❞ ș✳ ❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦♦✳ ✏❘✐s❦ ❆ ✈❡rs✐♦♥ ș♠♣❛❝t ♦♥ ș♥✈❡st✲
♠❡♥t ❙tr❛t❡❣② ❘❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡✿ ❆ ▼✉❧t✐ ❆❣❡♥t✲❇❛s❡❞ ❆♥❛❧②s✐s✳✑ ▼❛♥❛❣✐♥❣ ▼❛r❦❡t
❈♦♠♣❧❡①✐t② ✾✶✕✶✵✷✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✼✶ ✳✮
❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ❖✳✱ ❘ ✳ ▼❛t❤✐❡✉✱ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✏▲❛r❣❡ ❙❝❛❧❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐❣❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❊▼❍ ✇✐t❤ ✈✐rt✉❛❧
❛❣❡♥ts✳✑ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✾ ✳✮
❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ❖✳✱ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✏▲❡s ♠❛r❝❤❡s ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡rs ❛rt✐✜❝✐❡❧s✳✑ ❘❡✈✉❡ ❢r❛♥❝❛✐s❡ ❞❡ ❣❡st✐♦♥
✱ ✻✿ ✭✷✵✵✻❜✮ ✶✻✶✕✶✽✵✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✻ ✳✮
❇r♦❝❦✱ ❲✐❧❧✐❛♠ ❆✳✱ ❛♥❞ ❈❛rs ❍✳ ❍♦♠♠❡s✳ ✏❍❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s ❜❡❧✐❡❢s ❛♥❞ r♦✉t❡s t♦
❝❤❛♦s ✐♥ ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ♠♦❞❡❧✳✑ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❉②♥❛♠✐❝s ❛♥❞
❈♦♥tr♦❧ ✷✷✱ ✽✲✾✿ ✭✶✾✾✽✮ ✶✷✸✺✕✶✷✼✹✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❛✴❡❡❡✴❞②♥❝♦♥✴
✈✷✷②✶✾✾✽✐✽✲ ✾♣✶✷✸✺✲ ✶✷✼✹✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✻✹ ✳✮
❈❛♠♣❜❡❧❧✱ ❏♦❤♥ ❨✳ ✏❆ss❡t ❘r✐❝✐♥❣ ❛t t❤❡ ▼✐❧❧❡♥♥✐✉♠✳✑ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢
❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✺✺✱ ✹✿ ✭✷✵✵✵✮ ✶✺✶✺✕✶✺✻✼✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❛✴❜❧❛✴❥❢✐♥❛♥✴
✈✺✺②✷✵✵✵✐✹♣✶✺✶✺✲ ✶✺✻✼✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✻✵ ✳✮

✷✶✵ ❇✐❜❧✐♦❣r❛♣❤ ②
❈❤❛❧❧❡t✱ ❉❛♠✐❡♥✱ ▼❛tt❡♦ ▼❛rs✐❧✐✱ ❛♥❞ ❨✐✲❈❤❡♥❣ ❩❤❛♥❣✳ ✏▼✐♥♦r✐t② ❣❛♠❡s ❛♥❞ st②❧✲
✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts✳✑ ❑❤②s✐❝❛ ❆✿ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ▼❡❝❤❛♥✐❝s ❛♥❞ ✐ts ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ✷✾✾✱ ✶✿ ✭✷✵✵✶✮
✷✷✽✕✷✸✸✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❛✴❡❡❡✴♣❤s♠❛♣✴✈✷✾✾②✷✵✵✶✐✶♣✷✷✽✲ ✷✸✸✳
❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✶✼✹ ❛♥❞ ✶✼✺ ✳✮
❈❤❛♥❣✱ ❊r✐❝ ❈✳✱ ❏♦s❡♣❤ ❲✳ ❈❤❡♥❣✱ ❛♥❞ ❆❥❛② ❑❤♦r❛♥❛✳ ✏❆♥ ❡①❛♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❤❡r❞
❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ✐♥ ❡q✉✐t② ♠❛r❦❡ts✿ ❆♥ ✐♥t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♣❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡✳✑ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❇❛♥❦✐♥❣
✫ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✷✹✱ ✶✵✿ ✭✷✵✵✵✮ ✶✻✺✶✕✶✻✼✾✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❛✴❡❡❡✴❥❜❢✐♥❛✴
✈✷✹②✷✵✵✵✐✶✵♣✶✻✺✶✲ ✶✻✼✾✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✸✺ ❛♥❞ ✸✼ ✳✮
❈❤❛r♥❡ss✱ ●❛r② ✱ ❛♥❞ ❉❛♥ ▲❡✈✐♥✳ ✏❲❤❡♥ ❖♣t✐♠❛❧ ❈❤♦✐❝❡s ❋ ❡❡❧ ❲ r♦♥❣✿ ❆ ▲❛❜♦r❛t♦r②
❙t✉❞② ♦❢ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ❯♣❞❛t✐♥❣✱ ❈♦♠♣❧❡①✐t② ✱ ❛♥❞ ❆✛❡❝t✳✑ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ ❈❛❧✐❢♦r♥✐❛
❛t ❙❛♥t❛ ❇❛r❜❛r❛✱ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ❲ ♦r❦✐♥❣ ❑❛♣❡r ❙❡r✐❡s qt✼❣✻✸❦✷✽✇✱ ❉❡♣❛rt♠❡♥t ♦❢
❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s✱ ❯❈ ❙❛♥t❛ ❇❛r❜❛r❛✱ ✷✵✵✸✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴♣✴❝❞❧✴✉❝s❜❡❝✴
qt✼❣✻✸❦✷✽✇✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✶✼✸ ✳✮
❈❤✐❛r❡❧❧❛✱ ❈❛r❧✱ ❛♥❞ ●✐✉❧✐❛ ș♦r✐✳ ✏❆ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠✐❝r♦str✉❝t✉r❡ ♦❢
❞♦✉❜❧❡ ❛✉❝t✐♦♥ ♠❛r❦❡ts✳✑ ◗✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❡ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✷✱ ✺✿ ✭✷✵✵✷✮ ✸✹✻✕✸✺✸✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴
✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❛✴t❛❢✴q✉❛♥t❢✴✈✷②✷✵✵✷✐✺♣✸✹✻✲ ✸✺✸✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✷✹
❛♥❞ ✼✹ ✳✮
❈✐♣r✐❛♥✐✱ ▼✳✱ ❛♥❞ ❆✳ ●✉❛r✐♥♦✳ ✏❍❡r❞ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r ✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✿ ❛♥ ❡①✲
♣❡r✐♠❡♥t ✇✐t❤ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧s✳✑ ❖♣❡♥ ❆❝❝❡ss ♣✉❜❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ❢r♦♠
❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ❈♦❧❧❡❣❡ ▲♦♥❞♦♥ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❞✐s❝♦✈❡r② ✳✉❝❧✳❛❝✳✉✱ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ❈♦❧❧❡❣❡ ▲♦♥✲
❞♦♥✱ ✷✵✵✾✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴♣✴♥❡r✴✉❝❧❧♦♥✴❤tt♣✲ ✲ ❞✐s❝♦✈❡r②✳✉❝❧✳
❛❝✳✉❦✲ ✶✻✺✺✷✲ ✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✻ ✳✮
❈♦♥t✱ ❘❛♠❛✳ ✏❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ♣r♦♣❡rt✐❡s ♦❢ ❛ss❡t r❡t✉r♥s✿ st②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts ❛♥❞ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧
✐ss✉❡s✳✑ ◗✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❡ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✶✿ ✭✷✵✵✶✮ ✷✷✸✕✷✸✻✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✹✼ ✳✮
❈♦♦t♥❡r✱ ❑ ✳ ❚❤❡ ❘❛♥❞♦♠ ❈❤❛r❛❝t❡r ♦❢ ❙t♦❝❦ ▼❛r❦❡t ❑r✐❝❡s✳ ▼ș❚✱ ❑r❡ss✱ ❈❛♠❜r✐❞❣❡✱
▼❆✱ ✶✾✻✹✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✷✽ ✳✮
❈♦✈ ❛❧✱ ❏♦s❤✉❛ ❉✳✱ ❛♥❞ ❚②❧❡r ❙❤✉♠✇❛② ✳ ✏❉♦ ❇❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧ ❇✐❛s❡s ❆✛❡❝t ❑r✐❝❡s❄✑
❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✻✵✱ ✶✿ ✭✷✵✵✺✮ ✶✕✸✹✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❛✴❜❧❛✴
❥❢✐♥❛♥✴✈✻✵②✷✵✵✺✐✶♣✶✲ ✸✹✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✶✼ ✳✮
❉❡ ❇♦♥❞t✱ ❲ ❡r♥❡r ❋✳ ▼✳✱ ❛♥❞ ❘✐❝❤❛r❞ ❍✳ ❚❤❛❧❡r✳ ✏ ❋ ✉rt❤❡r ❊✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ♦♥ ș♥✈❡st♦r
❖✈❡rr❡❛❝t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❙t♦❝❦ ▼❛r❦❡t ❙❡❛s♦♥❛❧✐t②✳✑ ❚❤❡ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✹✷✱ ✸✿
✭✶✾✽✼✮ ✺✺✼✕✺✽✶✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✇✇✇✳❥st♦r✳♦r❣✴st❛❜❧❡✴✷✸✷✽✸✼✶ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✶✼ ✳✮
❉❡ ▲♦♥❣✱ ❏✳ ❇r❛❞❢♦r❞✱ ❆♥❞r❡✐ ❙❤❧❡✐❢❡r✱ ▲❛✇r❡♥❝❡ ❍✳ ❙✉♠♠❡rs✱ ❛♥❞ ❘♦❜❡rt ❏✳
❲ ❛❧❞♠❛♥♥✳ ✏❚❤❡ ❙✉r✈✐✈ ❛❧ ♦❢ ◆♦✐s❡ ❚ r❛❞❡rs ✐♥ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ▼❛r❦❡ts✳✑ ❙❝❤♦❧❛r❧②
❆rt✐❝❧❡s ✸✼✷✺✹✼✵✱ ❍❛r✈ ❛r❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ❉❡♣❛rt♠❡♥t ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s✱ ✶✾✾✶✳ ❤tt♣✿
✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴♣✴❤r✈✴❢❛s❡❝♦✴✸✼✷✺✹✼✵✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✷✽ ✳✮

❇✐❜❧✐♦❣r❛♣❤② ✷✶✶
❉❡r✈❡❡✉✇✱ ❏✳✱ ❇✳ ❇❡❛✉✜❧s✱ ❖✳ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ❯ ✳ ▼❛t❤✐❡✉✱ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✏▲✬❛♣♣♦rt ❞❡s s♠❛❛
❧❛ ♠♦❞❡❧✐s❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡s ♠❛r❝❤❡s ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡rs✳✑ ❘❡✈✉❡ ❞✬ș♥t❡❧❧✐❣❡♥❝❡ ❆rt✐✜❝✐❡❧❧❡ ✷✶✱ ✺✲✻✿
✭✷✵✵✼❛✮ ✻✶✼✕✻✹✶✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✻ ✳✮
❉❡r✈❡❡✉✇✱ ❏✳✱ ❇✳ ❇❡❛✉✜❧s✱ ❯ ✳ ▼❛t❤✐❡✉✱ ❖✳ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✏❯♥ ♠♦❞❡❧❡ ❞✬✐♥t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥
r❡❛❧✐st❡ ♣♦✉r ❧❛ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡ ♠❛r❝❤❡s ✜♥❛♥❝✐❡rs✳✑ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✺✽ ❛♥❞ ✻✸ ✳✮
❉✐♥❣✱ ❩❤✉❛♥①✐♥✱ ❈❧✐✈❡ ❲✳ ❏✳ ●r❛♥❣❡r✱ ❛♥❞ ❘♦❜❡rt ❋✳ ❊♥❣❧❡✳ ✏❆ ❧♦♥❣ ♠❡♠♦r② ♣r♦♣✲
❡rt② ♦❢ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡t r❡t✉r♥s ❛♥❞ ❛ ♥❡✇ ♠♦❞❡❧✳✑ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✶✱ ✶✿
✭✶✾✾✸✮ ✽✸✕✶✵✻✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❛✴❡❡❡✴❡♠♣❢✐♥✴✈✶②✶✾✾✸✐✶♣✽✸✲ ✶✵✻✳
❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✹✹ ✳✮
❉✳❙♦r♥❡tt❡✱ ❛♥❞ ❏✳❱✳ ❆♥❞❡rs❡♥✳ ✏❚❤❡ ❉♦❧❧❛r ●❛♠❡✳✑ ❚❍❊▼❆ ❲ ♦r❦✐♥❣ ❯❛♣❡rs ✷✵✵✸✲
✸✵✱ ❚❍❊▼❆ ✭❚❍é♦r✐❡ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐q✉❡✱ ▼♦❞é❧✐s❛t✐♦♥ ❡t ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s✮✱ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐té
❞❡ ❈❡r❣②✲❯♦♥t♦✐s❡✱ ✷✵✵✸✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❊❝♦♥P❛♣❡rs✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❘❡P❊❝✿❡♠❛✿✇♦r♣❛♣✿
✷✵✵✸✲ ✸✵ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✶✼✹ ✳✮
❉✉❞❧❡② ✱ ❘✳▼✳ ❯♥✐❢♦r♠ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ▲✐♠✐t ❚❤❡♦r❡♠s✳ ❈❛♠❜r✐❞❣❡ ❙t✉❞✐❡s ✐♥ ❆❞✈ ❛♥❝❡❞
▼❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝s✳ ❈❛♠❜r✐❞❣❡ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ❯r❡ss✱ ✶✾✾✾✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❜♦♦❦s✳❣♦♦❣❧❡✳❢r✴
❜♦♦❦s❄✐❞❂❉t▲♣✼❨✼✻❤✲ ❣❈ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✻ ✳✮
❉✉♣r❡ ❉✳✱ ❏✐♠❡♥❡③✲●❛r❝❡s ❙✳✱ ●✐r❡r❞✲❯♦t✐♥ ș✳✱ ❛♥❞ ▲♦✉✈❡t ❯ ✳ ✏▲❡s ✐♥✈❡st✐ss❡✉rs
♣❛✐❡♥t ♣♦✉r ❧✬❡t❤✐q✉❡✳ ❈♦♥✈✐❝t✐♦♥ ♦✉ ♣r✉❞❡♥❝❡ ❄✑ ❇❛♥q✉❡ ❡t ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✽✹✱ ✶✿
✭✷✵✵✻✮ ✹✺✕✻✵✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✾ ✳✮
❊❞✇❛r❞s✱ ❲✳ ✏ ❈♦♥s❡r✈ ❛t✐s♠ ✐♥ ❤✉♠❛♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❝❡ss✐♥❣✳✑ ❋ ♦r♠❛❧
r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❤✉♠❛♥ ❥✉❞❣♠❡♥t ✶✼✕✺✷✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✹✵ ✳✮
❊♥❦❡✱ ❙t❡♣❤❡♥✳ ✏❖♥ ♠❛①✐♠✐③✐♥❣ ♣r♦✜ts✿ ❆ ❞✐st✐♥❝t✐♦♥ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❈❤❛♠❜❡r❧✐♥ ❛♥❞
❘♦❜✐♥s♦♥✳✑ ❆♠❡r✐❝❛♥ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ✹✶✿ ✭✶✾✺✶✮ ❆♠❡r✐❝❛♥ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❘❡✈✐❡✇✳
✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✷✽ ✳✮
❊♣st❡✐♥✱ ❏✳ ▼✳✱ ❛♥❞ ❘✳ ❆①t❡❧❧✳ ●r♦✇✐♥❣ ❆rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ❙♦❝✐❡t✐❡s✿ ❙♦❝✐❛❧ ❙❝✐❡♥❝❡ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡
❇♦tt♦♠ ❯♣✳ ❈❛♠❜r✐❞❣❡✿ ▼ș❚ ❯r❡ss✱ ✶✾✾✻✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✾ ✳✮
❊♣st❡✐♥✱ ❏♦s❤✉❛ ▼✳ ✏❘❡♠❛r❦s ♦♥ t❤❡ ❋ ♦✉♥❞❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❆❣❡♥t✲❇❛s❡❞ ●❡♥❡r❛t✐✈❡ ❙♦❝✐❛❧
❙❝✐❡♥❝❡✳✑ ș♥ ❍❛♥❞❜♦♦❦ ♦❢ ❈♦♠♣✉t❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s✱ ❡❞✐t❡❞ ❜② ▲❡✐❣❤ ❚ ❡s❢❛ts✐♦♥✱
❛♥❞ ❑❡♥♥❡t❤ ▲✳ ❏✉❞❞✱ ❊❧s❡✈✐❡r✱ ✷✵✵✻✱ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ✷ ♦❢ ❍❛♥❞❜♦♦❦ ♦❢ ❈♦♠♣✉t❛t✐♦♥❛❧
❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s✱ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✸✹✱ ✶✺✽✺✕✶✻✵✹✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❤✴❡❡❡✴❤❡❝❝❤♣✴
✷✲ ✸✹✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✷✶ ✱ ✺✻ ✱ ✺✾ ❛♥❞ ✼✸ ✳✮
❊r❞♦✬s✱ ❯ ✳✱ ❛♥❞ ❆ ❘❡♥②✐✳ ✏❖♥ t❤❡ ❊✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❘❛♥❞♦♠ ●r❛♣❤s✳✑ ș♥ ❯❯❇▲ș❈❆ ❚ș❖◆
❖❋ ❚❍❊ ▼❆ ❚❍❊▼❆ ❚ș❈❆▲ ș◆❙❚ș❚❯❚❊ ❖❋ ❚❍❊ ❍❯◆●❆❘ș❆◆ ❆❈❆❉❊▼❨
❖❋ ❙❈ș❊◆❈❊❙✳ ✶✾✻✵✱ ✶✼✕✻✶✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✼ ✳✮
❊✈ ❛♥s ❉✳✱ ❍❡✉✈❡❧✐♥❦ ❆✳✱ ❛♥❞ ❉✳ ◆❡tt❧❡✳ ✏❚❤❡ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♦♣t✐♠✐s♠✿ ❛ ♠✉❧t✐✲
❛❣❡♥t ❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦❞❡❧ ♦❢ ❛❞❛♣t✐✈❡ ❜✐❛s ✐♥ ❤✉♠❛♥ ❥✉❞❣❡♠❡♥t✳✑ ❯r♦❝❡❡❞✐♥❣s ♦❢ t❤❡
❆ș❙❇✬✵✸ ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ♦♥ ❙❝✐❡♥t✐✜❝ ▼❡t❤♦❞s ❢♦r t❤❡ ❆♥❛❧②s✐s ♦❢ ❆❣❡♥t✲❊♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t

✷✶✷ ❇✐❜❧✐♦❣r❛♣❤ ②
ș♥ t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥ ✸✼✷✺✹✼✵✱ ❯♥✐✈ ❡rs✐t ② ♦❢ ❲ ❛❧❡s✱ ✷✵✵✸✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴♣✴
❤r✈✴❢❛s❡❝♦✴✸✼✷✺✹✼✵✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✷✽ ✳✮
❋ ❛♠❛✱ ❊✉❣❡♥❡ ❋✳ ✏ ❚❤❡ ❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ♦❢ ❙t♦ ❝ ❦✲▼❛r❦ ❡t ✾r✐❝❡s✳✑ ❚❤❡ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❇✉s✐♥❡ss
✸✽✱ ✶✿ ✭✶✾✻✺✮ ✸✹✕✶✵✺✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❞①✳❞♦✐✳♦r❣✴✶✵✳✷✸✵✼✴✷✸✺✵✼✺✷ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥
♣❛❣❡ ✷✽ ✳✮
✳ ✏❊✣❝✐❡♥ t ❈❛♣✐t❛❧ ▼❛r❦ ❡ts✿ ❆ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ❚❤❡♦r② ❛♥❞ ❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❲ ♦r❦✳✑
❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✷✺✱ ✷✿ ✭✶✾✼✵✮ ✸✽✸✕✹✶✼✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❊❝♦♥P❛♣❡rs✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴
❘❡P❊❝✿❜❧❛✿❥❢✐♥❛♥✿✈✿✷✺✿②✿✶✾✼✵✿✐✿✷✿♣✿✸✽✸✲ ✹✶✼ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✶✹ ✱ ✶✻ ✱ ✷✼ ✱ ✹✼
❛♥❞ ✶✺✺ ✳✮
❋ ❛r♠❡r✱ ❏✳ ❉♦ ②♥❡✱ ❛♥❞ ❙❤❛r❡❡♥ ❏♦s❤✐✳ ✏❚❤❡ ♣r✐❝❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ♦❢ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ tr❛❞✐♥❣
str❛t❡❣✐❡s✳✑ ◗✉❛♥ t✐t❛t✐✈ ❡ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✾ ❛♣ ❡rs ❝♦♥❞✲♠❛t✴✵✵✶✷✹✶✾✱ ❛r❳✐✈✳♦r❣✱ ✷✵✵✵✳
❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴♣✴❛r①✴♣❛♣❡rs✴❝♦♥❞✲ ♠❛t✲ ✵✵✶✷✹✶✾✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥
♣❛❣❡s ✻✼ ✱ ✼✸ ❛♥❞ ✽✵ ✳✮
❋ ❡✐❝ ❤ t✐♥❣❡r✱ ●✉st❛ ✈✳ ✏❚❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠ ② ❛s ❛♥ ❡✈ ♦❧✈✐♥❣ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① s②st❡♠ ✿ ✾ ✳❲✳ ❆♥❞❡rs♦♥✱
❑✳❏✳ ❆rr♦ ✇ ❛♥❞ ❉✳ ✾✐♥❡s✱ ❡❞s✳✱ ❆ ❞❞✐s♦♥✲❲ ❡s❧❡② ✱ ❘❡❞✇ ♦ ♦ ❞ ❈✐t ② ✱ ❈❛❧✐❢♦r♥✐❛✱ ✶✾✽✽
♣♣✳ ①✈✐✐ ✰ ✸✶✸✱ 40.95(cloth, ✷✶✳✾✺ ✭♣❛♣ ❡r✮✳✑ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦r ✫
❖r❣❛♥✐③❛t✐♦♥ ✶✺✱ ✷✿ ✭✶✾✾✶✮ ✸✶✻✕✸✶✾✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❛✴❡❡❡✴❥❡❜♦r❣✴
✈✶✺②✶✾✾✶✐✷♣✸✶✻✲ ✸✶✾✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✾ ✳✮
❋ ❡r♥❛♥❞❡③✱ ✾ ❛❜❧♦✱ ❏❛ ✈✐❡r ❆❣✉✐rr❡❛♠❛❧❧♦❛✱ ❛♥❞ ❍❡✐♥r✐❝ ❤ ▲✐❡❝ ❤ t❡♥st❡✐♥✳ ✏❚❤❡ ❡q✉✐t ②
♣r❡♠✐✉♠ ♣✉③③❧❡✿ ❍✐❣❤ r❡q✉✐r❡❞ ❡q✉✐t ② ♣r❡♠✐✉♠✱ ✉♥❞❡r✈ ❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ s❡❧❢ ❢✉❧✜❧❧✐♥❣
♣r♦♣❤❡❝② ✳✑ ș❡s❡ r❡s❡❛r❝ ❤ ♣❛♣ ❡rs✱ ș❊❙❊ ❇✉s✐♥❡ss ❙❝ ❤♦ ♦❧✱ ✷✵✵✾✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✺ ✳✮
❋✐s❤❡r✱ ș✳ ▼❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ✐♥ ✈ ❡st✐❣❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ t❤❡ t❤❡♦r② ♦❢ ✈ ❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ❨ ❛❧❡ ❯♥✐✲
✈ ❡rs✐t ② ✾r❡ss✱ ✶✾✷✺✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❜♦♦❦s✳❣♦♦❣❧❡✳❢r✴❜♦♦❦s❄✐❞❂❦◆❧❢❆❆❆❆ș❆❆❏ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞
♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✵ ✳✮
❋ r✐❡❞♠❛♥✱ ▼✳ ❊ss❛ ②s ✐♥ ✾ ♦s✐t✐✈ ❡ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s✳ ✾❤♦ ❡♥✐① ❜ ♦ ♦❦s✳ ❯♥✐✈ ❡r✲
s✐t ② ♦❢ ❈❤✐❝❛❣♦ ✾r❡ss✱ ✶✾✺✸✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❜❦s✼✳❜♦♦❦s✳❣♦♦❣❧❡✳❝♦✳✐♥✴❜♦♦❦s❄✐❞❂
❇❉❇❞❆❆❆❆ș❆❆❏ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✷✼ ✱ ✷✽ ❛♥❞ ✶✹✽ ✳✮
●❛❧❜✐❛t✐✱ ▼❛r❝♦✱ ❛♥❞ ❑✐♠♠♦ ❙♦r❛♠❛❦✐✳ ✏❆♥ ❛❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ ♠♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ♣❛ ②♠❡♥ t s②s✲
t❡♠s✳✑ ❇❛♥❦ ♦❢ ❊♥❣❧❛♥❞ ✇ ♦r❦✐♥❣ ♣❛♣ ❡rs ✸✺✷✱ ❇❛♥❦ ♦❢ ❊♥❣❧❛♥❞✱ ✷✵✵✽✳ ❤tt♣✿
✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴♣✴❜♦❡✴❜♦❡❡✇♣✴✵✸✺✷✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✽ ✳✮
●❛❧❜✐❛t✐✱ ▼❛r❝♦✱ ❛♥❞ ▲✉❝✐❛♥ ❙t❛♥❝✐✉✲❱✐③✐t❡✉✳ ✏❚ ❛r❣❡t✷ ●❡♦❣r❛♣❤ ② ✳✑ ✭s♦ ♦♥ t♦ ❛♣♣ ❡❛r✮
❡✉r♦♣ ❡❛♥ ❝❡♥ tr❛❧ ❜❛♥❦ ✇ ♦r❦✐♥❣ ♣❛♣ ❡rs✱ ❊✉r♦♣ ❡❛♥ ❈❡♥ tr❛❧ ❇❛♥❦✱ ✷✵✶✸✳ ❤tt♣✿
✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴♣✴❜♦❡✴❜♦❡❡✇♣✴✵✸✺✷✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✽ ✳✮
●❛❧❧❛✱ ❚ ♦❜✐❛s✱ ●✐❛♥❝❛r❧♦ ▼♦s❡tt✐✱ ❛♥❞ ❨✐✲❈❤❡♥❣ ❩❤❛♥❣✳ ✏❆♥♦♠❛❧♦✉s ✢✉❝t✉❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥
▼✐♥♦r✐t ② ●❛♠❡s ❛♥❞ r❡❧❛t❡❞ ♠ ✉❧t✐✲❛❣❡♥ t ♠♦ ❞❡❧s ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦ ❡ts✳✑ ✾ ❛♣ ❡rs
♣❤ ②s✐❝s✴✵✻✵✽✵✾✶✱ ❛r❳✐✈✳♦r❣✱ ✷✵✵✻✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴♣✴❛r①✴♣❛♣❡rs✴
♣❤②s✐❝s✲ ✵✻✵✽✵✾✶✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✶✼✹ ✳✮

❇✐❜❧✐♦❣r❛♣❤② ✷✶✸
●✐❧❜♦❛✱ șt③❤❛❦✱ ❆♥❞r❡✇ ✻♦st❧❡✇❛✐t❡✱ ❛♥❞ ❉❛✈✐❞ ❙❝❤♠❡✐❞❧❡r✳ ✏șs șt ❆❧✇❛②s ❘❛t✐♦♥❛❧
❚ ♦ ❙❛t✐s❢② ❙❛✈ ❛❣❡✬❙ ❆①✐♦♠s❄✑ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ❛♥❞ ✻❤✐❧♦s♦♣❤② ✷✺✱ ✵✸✿ ✭✷✵✵✾✮ ✷✽✺✕
✷✾✻✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❛✴❝✉♣✴❡❝♥♣❤✐✴✈✷✺②✷✵✵✾✐✵✸♣✷✽✺✲ ✷✾✻❴✾✾✳❤t♠❧ ✳
✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✷✽ ✳✮
●❧♦st❡♥✱ ▲❛✇r❡♥❝❡ ❘✳✱ ❛♥❞ ✻❛✉❧ ❘✳ ▼✐❧❣r♦♠✳ ✏❇✐❞✱ ❆s❦ ❛♥❞ ❚ r❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥ ✻r✐❝❡s ✐♥
❛ ❙♣❡❝✐❛❧✐st ▼❛r❦❡t ✇✐t❤ ❍❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s❧② ș♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ❚ r❛❞❡rs✳✑ ❉✐s❝✉ss✐♦♥ ✻❛♣❡rs
✺✼✵✱ ◆♦rt❤✇❡st❡r♥ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ✱ ❈❡♥t❡r ❢♦r ▼❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❙t✉❞✐❡s ✐♥ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ❛♥❞
▼❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ❙❝✐❡♥❝❡✱ ✶✾✽✸✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴♣✴♥✇✉✴❝♠s❡♠s✴✺✼✵✳❤t♠❧ ✳
✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✹✽ ✳✮
●r❛❤❛♠✱ ❇✳✱ ❛♥❞ ❉✳▲✳❋✳ ❉♦❞❞✳ ❙❡❝✉r✐t② ❆♥❛❧②s✐s✿ ❚❤❡ ❈❧❛ss✐❝ ✶✾✺✶
❊❞✐t✐♦♥✳ ▼❝●r❛✇✲❍✐❧❧ ❊❞✉❝❛t✐♦♥✱ ✶✾✺✶✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❜♦♦❦s✳❣♦♦❣❧❡✳❢r✴❜♦♦❦s❄✐❞❂
✉❯r✉❩❆✾❜❛♦✇❈ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✶✹ ✳✮
●r✐✣♥✱ ❉✳✱ ❆✳ ❚ ✈❡rs❦② ✱ ❙t❛♥❢♦r❞ ❈❡♥t❡r ♦♥ ❈♦♥✢✐❝t✱ ❛♥❞ ◆❡❣♦t✐❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤❡ ✇❡✐❣❤✐♥❣
♦❢ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛♥ts ♦❢ ❝♦♥✜❞❡♥❝❡✿ ❜② ❉❛❧❡ ●r✐✣♥ ❛♥❞ ❆♠♦s
❚ ✈❡rs❦②✳ ❲ ♦r❦✐♥❣ ♣❛♣❡r✳ ❙t❛♥❢♦r❞ ❈❡♥t❡r ♦♥ ❈♦♥✢✐❝t ❛♥❞ ◆❡❣♦t✐❛t✐♦♥✱ ❙t❛♥❢♦r❞
❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ✱ ✶✾✾✸✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❜♦♦❦s✳❣♦♦❣❧❡✳❢r✴❜♦♦❦s❄✐❞❂❞●șr❆◗❆❆ș❆❆❏ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥
♣❛❣❡ ✹✶ ✳✮
●r♦ss♠❛♥✱ ❙❛♥❢♦r❞ ❏✱ ❛♥❞ ❏♦s❡♣❤ ❊ ❙t✐❣❧✐t③✳ ✏❖♥ t❤❡ ș♠♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t② ♦❢ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧❧②
❊✣❝✐❡♥t ▼❛r❦❡ts✳✑ ▲❡✈✐♥❡✬s ❲ ♦r❦✐♥❣ ✻❛♣❡r ❆r❝❤✐✈❡ ✶✾✵✽✱ ❉❛✈✐❞ ❑✳ ▲❡✈✐♥❡✱ ✶✾✽✵✳
❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴♣✴❝❧❛✴❧❡✈❛r❝✴✶✾✵✽✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✶✽ ✱ ✶✺✺ ✱
✶✽✹ ✱ ✶✽✼ ❛♥❞ ✶✾✶ ✳✮
❍❛♠❡r❧❡✱ ❆❧❢r❡❞✱ ❚❤✐❧♦ ▲✐❡❜✐❣✱ ❛♥❞ ❍❛♥s✲❏♦❝❤❡♥ ❙❝❤r♦♣♣✳ ✏❙②st❡♠❛t✐❝ r✐s❦ ♦❢ ❈❉❖s
❛♥❞ ❈❉❖ ❛r❜✐tr❛❣❡✳✑ ❉✐s❝✉ss✐♦♥ ✻❛♣❡r ❙❡r✐❡s ✷✿ ❇❛♥❦✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❙t✉❞✐❡s
✷✵✵✾✱✶✸✱ ❉❡✉ts❝❤❡ ❇✉♥❞❡s❜❛♥❦✱ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ❈❡♥tr❡✱ ✷✵✵✾✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❊❝♦♥❘❛♣❡rs✳
r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❘❡❘❊❝✿③❜✇✿❜✉❜❞♣✷✿✷✵✵✾✶✸ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✶✼✸ ✳✮
❍❛rr✐s✱ ▲❛rr② ✳ ❚ r❛❞✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❊①❝❤❛♥❣❡s✿ ▼❛r❦❡t ▼✐❝r♦str✉❝t✉r❡ ❢♦r ✻r❛❝t✐t✐♦♥❡rs✳
❖①❢♦r❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ✻r❡ss✱ ✷✵✵✷✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❊❝♦♥❘❛♣❡rs✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❘❡❘❊❝✿♦①♣✿
♦❜♦♦❦s✿✾✼✽✵✶✾✺✶✹✹✼✵✸ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✹✷ ✳✮
❍❡r✈❡✱ ❆❧❡①❛♥❞r❡✳ ✏❧❛ ◗✉❛s✐ ▼❛r❝❤❡ ❆❧❡❛t♦✐r❡✳✑ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✶✸✱ ✷✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✹✹ ✳✮
✳ ✏▲✬❡✣❝✐❡♥❝❡ ❜r✉✐t❡❡✳ ❯♥❡ ❛♥❛❧②s❡ ♥♦♥ ❧✐♥❡❛✐r❡ ❞✉ ♠❛r❝❤❡ ❢r❛♥❝❛✐s ❞❡s ❛❝✲
t✐♦♥s✳✑ ✶✾✾✹✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✷✺ ❛♥❞ ✺✺ ✳✮
❍✐rs❤❧❡✐❢❡r✱ ❉❛✈✐❞✱ ❛♥❞ ❙✐❡✇ ❍♦♥❣ ❚ ❡♦❤✳ ✏❍❡r❞ ❇❡❤❛✈✐♦✉r ❛♥❞ ❈❛s❝❛❞✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❈❛♣✲
✐t❛❧ ▼❛r❦❡ts✿ ❛ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ❛♥❞ ❙②♥t❤❡s✐s✳✑ ❊✉r♦♣❡❛♥ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ▼❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ✾✱
✶✿ ✭✷✵✵✸✮ ✷✺✕✻✻✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❛✴❜❧❛✴❡✉❢♠❛♥✴✈✾②✷✵✵✸✐✶♣✷✺✲ ✻✻✳
❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✵ ✳✮
❍✉❛♥❣✱ ❲ ❡✐❤♦♥❣✱ ❍✉❛♥❤✉❛♥ ❩❤❡♥❣✱ ❛♥❞ ❲ ❛✐✲▼✉♥ ❈❤✐❛✳ ✏❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝r✐s❡s
❛♥❞ ✐♥t❡r❛❝t✐♥❣ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s ❛❣❡♥ts✳✑ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❉②♥❛♠✐❝s ❛♥❞

✷✶✹ ❇✐❜❧✐♦❣r❛♣❤ ②
❈♦♥tr♦❧ ✸✹✱ ✻✿ ✭✷✵✶✵✮ ✶✶✵✺✕✶✶✷✷✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❛✴❡❡❡✴❞②♥❝♦♥✴
✈✸✹②✷✵✶✵✐✻♣✶✶✵✺✲ ✶✶✷✷✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✼ ✳✮
❏♦r❞❛♥✱ ❙✳ ✏șs ▼♦♠❡♥t✉♠ ❛ ❙❡❧❢✲❢✉❧✜❧❧✐♥❣ ❘r♦♣❤❡❝②❄✑ ❲ ♦r❦✐♥❣ ❘❛♣❡r ❙❡r✐❡s ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞
♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✺ ✳✮
❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥✱ ❉✳ ✏❖♥ t❤❡ ♣s②❝❤♦❧♦❣② ♦❢ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥✳✑ ❘s②❝❤♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ✽✵✿
✭✶✾✼✸✮ ✷✸✼✕✷✺✶✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❜♦♦❦s✳❣♦♦❣❧❡✳❢r✴❜♦♦❦s❄✐❞❂✽✺❋❖❍❆❆❆❈❆❆❏ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥
♣❛❣❡s ✷✻ ❛♥❞ ✾✷ ✳✮
❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥✱ ❉✳✱ ❘ ✳ ❙❧♦✈✐❝✱ ❛♥❞ ❆✳ ❚ ✈❡rs❦② ✳ ❏✉❞❣❡♠❡♥t ✉♥❞❡r ✉♥❝❡rt❛✐♥t② ✲ ❍❡✉r✐st✐❝s
❛♥❞ ❜✐❛s❡s✳ ❈❛♠❜r✐❞❣❡ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ❘r❡ss✱ ❈❛♠❜r✐❞❣❡✱ ✶✾✽✶✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✸✾ ✱
✹✵ ✱ ✾✷ ❛♥❞ ✶✼✸ ✳✮
❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥✱ ❉✳✱ ❛♥❞ ❆✳ ❚ ✈❡rs❦② ✳ ✏❈❤♦✐❝❡s✱ ✈ ❛❧✉❡s ❛♥❞ ❢r❛♠❡s✳✑ ❆♠❡r✐❝❛♥
❘s②❝❤♦❧♦❣✐st ✸✾✱ ✹✿ ✭✶✾✽✹✮ ✸✹✶✕✸✺✵✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✷✻ ✳✮
❑❛❤♥❡♠❛♥✱ ❉❛♥✐❡❧✱ ❛♥❞ ❆♠♦s ❚ ✈❡rs❦② ✳ ✏❘r♦s♣❡❝t ❚❤❡♦r②✿ ❆♥ ❆♥❛❧②s✐s ♦❢ ❉❡❝✐s✐♦♥
✉♥❞❡r ❘✐s❦✳✑ ❊❝♦♥♦♠❡tr✐❝❛ ✹✼✱ ✷✿ ✭✶✾✼✾✮ ✷✻✸✕✾✶✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❛✴
❡❝♠✴❡♠❡tr♣✴✈✹✼②✶✾✼✾✐✷♣✷✻✸✲ ✾✶✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✸✵ ✱ ✸✾ ❛♥❞ ✹✽ ✳✮
❑❛♥❡❦♦✱ ❑✳✱ ❛♥❞ ș✳ ❚ s✉❞❛✳ ❈♦♠♣❧❡① ❙②st❡♠s✿ ❈❤❛♦s ❛♥❞ ❇❡② ♦♥❞ ✿ ❆ ❈♦♥str✉❝t✐✈ ❡
❆♣♣r♦❛❝ ❤ ❲✐t❤ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ▲✐❢❡ ❙❝✐❡♥❝❡s✳ ✑❤ ②s✐❝s ❛♥❞ ❆str♦♥♦♠ ② ❖♥✲
❧✐♥❡ ▲✐❜r❛r② ✳ ❙♣r✐♥❣❡r✲❱ ❡r❧❛❣ ●♠ ❜❍✱ ✷✵✵✶✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❜♦♦❦s✳❣♦♦❣❧❡✳❢r✴❜♦♦❦s❄✐❞❂
✼❧❝ș◆❢❣✉♣❣❣❈ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✸ ✳✮
❑✐r♠❛♥✱ ❆❧❛♥ ✑ ✳ ✏ ❲❤♦♠ ♦r ❲❤❛t ❉♦ ❡s t❤❡ ❘❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❛t✐✈ ❡ ș♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❘❡♣r❡s❡♥ t❄✑
❚❤❡ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✑ ❡rs♣ ❡❝t✐✈ ❡s ✻✱ ✷✿ ✭✶✾✾✷✮ ✶✶✼✕✶✸✻✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✼ ✳✮
❑②❧❡✱ ❆❧❜ ❡rt ❙✳ ✏❈♦♥ t✐♥ ✉♦✉s ❆✉❝t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ș♥s✐❞❡r ❚ r❛❞✐♥❣✳✑ ❊❝♦♥♦♠❡tr✐❝❛ ✺✸✱
✻✿ ✭✶✾✽✺✮ ✶✸✶✺✕✸✺✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❊❝♦♥P❛♣❡rs✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❘❡P❊❝✿❡❝♠✿❡♠❡tr♣✿✈✿✺✸✿
②✿✶✾✽✺✿✐✿✻✿♣✿✶✸✶✺✲ ✸✺ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✼ ✳✮
▲❛♥❞✐❡r✱ ❆✉❣✉st✐♥✱ ❉❛ ✈✐❞ ❙r❛❡r✱ ❛♥❞ ❉❛ ✈✐❞ ❚❤❡s♠❛r✳ ✏❚❤❡ r✐s❦✲❙❤✐❢t✐♥❣ ❍②♣ ♦t❤❡s✐s
✿ ❊✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ❢r♦♠ ❙✉❜♣r✐♠❡ ❖r✐❣✐♥❛t✐♦♥s✳✑ ❚❙❊ ❲ ♦r❦✐♥❣ ✑ ❛♣ ❡rs ✶✶✲✷✼✾✱ ❚ ♦✉❧♦✉s❡
❙❝ ❤♦ ♦❧ ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ✭❚❙❊✮✱ ✷✵✶✶✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴♣✴ts❡✴✇♣❛♣❡r✴
✷✺✻✵✹✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✽ ✳✮
▲❡❜❛r♦♥✱ ❇✳ ✏ ❇✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❙❛♥ t❛ ❋ ❡ ❆rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ❙t♦ ❝ ❦ ▼❛r❦ ❡t✳✑ ✑❤ ②s✐❝❛ ❆ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞
♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✻✷ ❛♥❞ ✻✸ ✳✮
▲❡❇❛r♦♥✱ ❇❧❛❦ ❡✳ ✏❊✈ ♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ t✐♠❡ ❤♦r✐③♦♥s ✐♥ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥ t ❜❛s❡❞ st♦ ❝ ❦ ♠❛r❦ ❡t✳✑
▼❛❝r♦ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❉②♥❛♠✐❝s ✺✿ ✭✷✵✵✶✮ ✷✷✺✕✷✺✹✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✼✶ ✳✮
▲❡✈✐t✐♥✱ ❆ ❞❛♠✱ ❛♥❞ ❙✉s❛♥ ▼✳ ❲ ❛❝ ❤ t❡r✳ ✏❊①♣❧❛✐♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❍♦✉s✐♥❣ ❇✉❜❜❧❡✳✑ ▼♣r❛ ♣❛✲
♣ ❡r✱ ❯♥✐✈ ❡rs✐t ② ▲✐❜r❛r② ♦❢ ▼✉♥✐❝ ❤✱ ●❡r♠❛♥ ② ✱ ✷✵✶✷✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❊❝♦♥P❛♣❡rs✳r❡♣❡❝✳
♦r❣✴❘❡P❊❝✿♣r❛✿♠♣r❛♣❛✿✹✶✾✷✵ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✹✺ ✳✮

❇✐❜❧✐♦❣r❛♣❤② ✷✶✺
▲❡✈② ✱ ❍✳✱ ▼✳ ▲❡✈② ✱ ❛♥❞ ❙✳ ❙♦❧♦♠♦♥✳ ▼✐❝r♦s❝♦♣✐❝ ❙✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ▼❛r❦❡ts✿
❋ r♦♠ ș♥✈❡st♦r ❇❡❤❛✈✐♦r t♦ ▼❛r❦❡t ✽❤❡♥♦♠❡♥❛✳ ❊❧s❡✈✐❡r ❙❝✐❡♥❝❡✱ ✷✵✵✵✳ ❤tt♣✿
✴✴❜♦♦❦s✳❣♦♦❣❧❡✳❢r✴❜♦♦❦s❄✐❞❂❢❢❝❚ș✈✉❑❩t♦❈ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✻✺ ✱ ✻✻ ❛♥❞ ✶✾✸ ✳✮
▲✐❝❛t❛✱ ș✳✱ ❛♥❞ ❆✳ ❙❛❦ ❛ ❥✐✳ ✽❤②s✐❝s ❖❢ ❊♠❡r❣❡♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❖r❣❛♥✐③❛t✐♦♥✳ ❲ ♦r❧❞ ❙❝✐❡♥t✐✜❝✱
✷✵✵✽✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❜♦♦❦s✳❣♦♦❣❧❡✳❝❛✴❜♦♦❦s❄✐❞❂❇❙❖✶❑❆✲ ✺❈❉ș❈ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✸ ✳✮
▲✐♥t♥❡r✱ ❏♦❤♥✳ ✏❙❡❝✉r✐t② ✽r✐❝❡s✱ ❘✐s❦✱ ❆♥❞ ▼❛①✐♠❛❧ ●❛✐♥s ❋ r♦♠ ❉✐✈❡rs✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥✳✑
❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✷✵✱ ✹✿ ✭✶✾✻✺✮ ✺✽✼✕✻✶✺✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❛✴❜❧❛✴
❥❢✐♥❛♥✴✈✷✵②✶✾✻✺✐✹♣✺✽✼✲ ✻✶✺✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✵ ✳✮
▲✐t③❡♥❜❡r❣❡r✱ ❘♦❜❡rt✱ ❏❡✛ ❈❛st✉r❛✱ ❛♥❞ ❘✐❝❤❛r❞ ●♦r❡❧✐❝❦✳ ✏❚❤❡ ș♠♣❛❝ts ♦❢ ❆✉✲
t♦♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❍✐❣❤ ❋ r❡q✉❡♥❝② ❚ r❛❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ ▼❛r❦❡t ◗✉❛❧✐t② ✳✑ ❆♥♥✉❛❧ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢
❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ✹✱ ✶✿ ✭✷✵✶✷✮ ✺✾✕✾✽✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❊❝♦♥P❛♣❡rs✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❘❡P❊❝✿
❛♥r✿r❡❢❡❝♦✿✈✿✹✿②✿✷✵✶✷✿♣✿✺✾✲ ✾✽ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✹✻ ✳✮
▲♦✱ ❆♥❞r❡✇ ❲✳✱ ❍❛rr② ▼❛♠❛②s❦② ✱ ❛♥❞ ❏✐❛♥❣ ❲ ❛♥❣✳ ✏❋ ♦✉♥❞❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧
❛♥❛❧②s✐s✿ ❈♦♠♣✉t❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❛❧❣♦r✐t❤♠s✱ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ✐♥❢❡r❡♥❝❡✱ ❛♥❞ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ✐♠♣❧❡✲
♠❡♥t❛t✐♦♥✳✑ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✹✵✿ ✭✷✵✵✵✮ ✶✼✵✺✕✶✼✻✺✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✺ ✳✮
▲♦✉✈❡t✱ ✽ ✳✱ ❛♥❞ ▼✳ ❉✉❜♦✐s✳ ✏❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❜❛♥❦✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳✑ ❚❤❡ ❞❛②✲♦❢✲t❤❡✲✇❡❡❦
❡✛❡❝t✿ t❤❡ ✐♥t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ✷✵✿ ✭✶✾✾✻✮ ✶✹✻✸✕✶✹✽✹✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✹✸ ✳✮
▲♦✉✈❡t✱ ✽ ✳✱ ❛♥❞ ❚ ❛r❛♠❛s❝♦ ❖✳ ✏ ▲✬❡✛❡t ✧❥♦✉r✲❞❡✲❧❛✲s❡♠❛✐♥❡✧ ❛ ❧❛ ❇♦✉rs❡ ❞❡ ✽❛r✐s ✿
✉♥❡ ❛♣♣r♦❝❤❡ ♣❛r ❧❡s ♠♦②❡♥♥❡s ♠♦❜✐❧❡s✧✳✑ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✶✶✿ ✭✶✾✾✵✮ ✽✸✕✶✵✾✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥
♣❛❣❡ ✹✸ ✳✮
✳ ✏▲✬❛♥❛❧②s❡ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐✈❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❛♥❝❡ s❡r✐❡❧❧❡ s✉r ❧❡s r❡♥t❛❜✐❧✐t❡s ❜♦✉r✲
s✐❡r❡s✳✑ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✶✹✿ ✭✶✾✾✸✮ ✻✼✕✾✹✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✹✹ ✳✮
✳ ✏❊st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♥♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡tr✐q✉❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❛♥❝❡ s❡r✐❡❧❧❡ s✉r ❧❡s r❡♥t❛❜✐❧✐t❡s
❜♦✉rs✐❡r❡s ❞✬✐♥❞✐❝❡s ✐♥t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥❛✉①✳✑ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❙♦❝✐❡t❡ st❛t✐st✐q✉❡ ❞❡ ✽❛r✐s ✶✿
✭✶✾✾✼✮ ✺✸✕✼✾✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✹✹ ✳✮
▲✉❝❛s✱ ❏r✱ ❘♦❜❡rt ❊✳ ✏❆ss❡t ✽r✐❝❡s ✐♥ ❛♥ ❊①❝❤❛♥❣❡ ❊❝♦♥♦♠② ✳✑ ❊❝♦♥♦♠❡tr✐❝❛
✹✻✱ ✻✿ ✭✶✾✼✽✮ ✶✹✷✾✕✹✺✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❛✴❡❝♠✴❡♠❡tr♣✴
✈✹✻②✶✾✼✽✐✻♣✶✹✷✾✲ ✹✺✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✷✽ ✳✮
▼❛♥❞❡❧❜r♦t✱ ❇❡♥♦✐t✳ ✏❚❤❡ ❱ ❛r✐❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❈❡rt❛✐♥ ❙♣❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈❡ ✽r✐❝❡s✳✑ ❚❤❡
❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❇✉s✐♥❡ss ✸✻✿ ✭✶✾✻✸✮ ✸✾✹✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❛✴✉❝♣✴❥♥❧❜✉s✴
✈✸✻②✶✾✻✸♣✸✾✹✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✹✸ ✳✮
▼❛r❦♦✇✐t③✱ ❍❛rr② ✳ ✏✽♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❙❡❧❡❝t✐♦♥✳✑ ❚❤❡ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✼✱ ✶✿ ✭✶✾✺✷✮ ✼✼✕✾✶✳
❤tt♣✿✴✴❞①✳❞♦✐✳♦r❣✴✶✵✳✷✸✵✼✴✷✾✼✺✾✼✹ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✸✵ ❛♥❞ ✹✼ ✳✮
▼❛t❛ss✐♥✐✱ ▲♦r❡♥③♦✱ ❛♥❞ ❋ ❛❜✐♦ ❋ r❛♥❝✐✳ ✏❖♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts tr❛❞✐♥❣✳✑
✽❤②s✐❝❛ ❆✿ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ▼❡❝❤❛♥✐❝s ❛♥❞ ✐ts ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ✷✽✾✱ ✸✲✹✿ ✭✷✵✵✶✮ ✺✷✻✕
✺✹✷✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✇✇✇✳s❝✐❡♥❝❡❞✐r❡❝t✳❝♦♠✴s❝✐❡♥❝❡✴❛rt✐❝❧❡✴❇✻❚❱●✲ ✹✷✸✹❈✸✹✲ ❋✴✶✴
❛❝✺✺✺❞✵✹✸✽✷✼✸✻✽✺❞❛✵✷❝✹✸✻✵✾✽✼✷✹✺✻ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✻✹ ✳✮

✷✶✻ ❇✐❜❧✐♦❣r❛♣❤ ②
▼❛t❤✐❡✉✱ ❏ ✳✱ ❛♥❞ ❖✳ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✳ ✏❆ ❣❡♥❡r✐❝ ❛r❝❤✐t❡❝t✉r❡ ❢♦r r❡❛❧✐st✐❝ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢
❝♦♠♣❧❡① ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s✳✑ ❆❞✈ ❛♥❝❡s ✐♥ ❏r❛❝t✐❝❛❧ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❆❣❡♥ts ❛♥❞
▼✉❧t✐❛❣❡♥t ❙②st❡♠s ✶✽✺✕✶✾✼✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✻✷ ✳✮
▼❛t❤✐❡✉✱ ❏❤✐❧✐♣♣❡✱ ❛♥❞ ❖❧✐✈✐❡r ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✳ ✏ș♥tr♦❞✉❝✐♥❣ ❆ ❚❖▼✳✑ ș♥ ❏r♦❝❡❡❞✐♥❣s
♦❢ t❤❡ ✶✵t❤ ș♥t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❝♦♥❢❡r❡♥❝❡ ♦♥ ❏r❛❝t✐❝❛❧ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❆❣❡♥ts ❛♥❞
▼✉❧t✐✲❆❣❡♥ts ❙②st❡♠s ✭❏ ❆❆▼❙✬✷✵✶✷✮✱ ❡❞✐t❡❞ ❜② ❏❛✈✐❡r ❇❛ ❥♦ ❏❡r❡③✱ ❏✉❛♥ ▼✳
❈♦r❝❤❛❞♦✱ ❊♠♠❛♥✉❡❧ ❆❞❛♠✱ ❆❧❢♦♥s♦ ❖rt❡❣❛✱ ▼❛r✐❛ ▼♦r❡♥♦✱ ❊❧❡♥❛ ◆❛✈ ❛rr♦✱ ❇❡♥✲
❥❛♠✐♥ ❍✐rs❝❤✱ ❍❡♥r✐q✉❡ ▲♦♣❡s ❈❛r❞♦s♦✱ ❱✐❝❡♥t❡ ❏✉❧✐á♥✱ ▼✐❣✉❡❧ ❆✳ ❙á♥❝❤❡③✱ ❛♥❞
❏❤✐❧✐♣♣❡ ▼❛t❤✐❡✉✳ ❙❛❧❛♠❛♥❝❛✿ ❙♣r✐♥❣❡r✱ ✷✵✶✷✱ ❏r❛❝t✐❝❛❧ ❆❞✈ ❛♥❝❡s ✐♥ ș♥t❡❧❧✐❣❡♥t
❛♥❞ s♦❢t ❝♦♠♣✉t✐♥❣✱ ✷✻✾✕✷✼✷✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✇✇✇✳♣❛❛♠s✳♥❡t✴♣❛❛♠s✷✵✶✷✴ ✳ ❙❤♦rt ♣❛♣❡r✱
❇❡st ❉❡♠♦ ❛✇❛r❞✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✻✸ ✳✮
▼❡✐st❡r✱ ❑✳✱ ▼✳ ❇❛❧♠❡r✱ ❋✳ ❈✐❛r✐✱ ❆✳ ❍♦r♥✐✱ ▼✳ ❘✐❡s❡r✱ ❘✳❆✳ ❲ ❛r❛✐❝❤✱ ❑✳❲✳
❆①❤❛✉s❡♥✱ ❘✳❆✳ ❲ ❛r❛✐❝❤✱ ❘✳❆✳ ❲ ❛r❛✐❝❤✱ ❑✳❲✳ ❆①❤❛✉s❡♥✱ ❡t ❛❧✳ ▲❛r❣❡✲s❝❛❧❡
❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ tr❛✈❡❧ ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ♦♣t✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ❛♣♣❧✐❡❞ t♦ ❙✇✐t③❡r❧❛♥❞✱ ✐♥❝❧✉❞✐♥❣ ♠♦❞❡
❝❤♦✐❝❡✳ ❊❚❍✱ ❊✐❞❣❡♥öss✐s❝❤❡ ❚ ❡❝❤♥✐s❝❤❡ ❍♦❝❤s❝❤✉❧❡ ❩ür✐❝❤✱ ș❱❚✱ ș♥st✐t✉t ❢ür
❱ ❡r❦❡❤rs♣❧❛♥✉♥❣ ✉♥❞ ❚ r❛♥s♣♦rts②st❡♠❡✱ ✷✵✶✵✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❜♦♦❦s✳❣♦♦❣❧❡✳❢r✴❜♦♦❦s❄
✐❞❂②❇✇❛②✇❆❆❈❆❆❏ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✽ ✳✮
▼✐tr♦✐ ❆❞r✐❛♥✱ ❙t❛♥❝✉ ș✳ ✏❋✐♥❛♥t❡ ❝♦♠♣♦rt❛♠❡♥t❛❧❡ ✈❡rs✉s ❛♥❛❧✐③❛ t❡❤♥✐❝❛ s✐ ❢✉♥❞❛✲
♠❡♥t❛❧❛✳✑ ❙②♠♣♦s✐♦♥ ❙❝✐❡♥t✐✜q✉❡ ș♥t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧✱ ❉❡✈❡❧♦♣♣❡♠❡♥t ❞✉r❛❜❧❡✱ ❡❝❤❛♥❣❡
❣❧♦❜❛❧ ❡t ❡❝♦s②st❡♠s ✹✼✱ ✶✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✹✽ ✳✮
▼♦r♦✱ ❊st❡❜❛♥✳ ✏ ❚❤❡ ▼✐♥♦r✐t② ●❛♠❡✿ ❛♥ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝t♦r② ❣✉✐❞❡✳✑ ❆❞✈ ❛♥❝❡s ✐♥
❈♦♥❞❡♥s❡❞ ▼❛tt❡r ❛♥❞ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ❏❤②s✐❝s ✶✺✹✱ ✸✿ ✭✷✵✵✹✮ ✹✼✼✰✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥
♣❛❣❡ ✶✾✷ ✳✮
▼♦rr✐s✱ ❏♦❤♥ ❏✳✱ ❛♥❞ ❏❡r✈ ❛✐③ ❆❧❛♠✳ ✏❱ ❛❧✉❡ r❡❧❡✈ ❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❞♦t✲❝♦♠ ❜✉❜❜❧❡ ♦❢
t❤❡ ✶✾✾✵s✳✑ ❚❤❡ ◗✉❛rt❡r❧② ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ❛♥❞ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✺✷✱ ✷✿ ✭✷✵✶✷✮
✷✹✸✕✷✺✺✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❛✴❡❡❡✴q✉❛❡❝♦✴✈✺✷②✷✵✶✷✐✷♣✷✹✸✲ ✷✺✺✳❤t♠❧ ✳
✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✶✸ ❛♥❞ ✶✼✸ ✳✮
▼♦ss✐♥✱ ❏❛♥✳ ✏❊q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ✐♥ ❛ ❈❛♣✐t❛❧ ❆ss❡t ▼❛r❦❡t✳✑ ❊❝♦♥♦♠❡tr✐❝❛ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥
♣❛❣❡ ✸✵ ✳✮
▼✉t❤✱ ❏♦❤♥ ❋✳ ✏ ❘❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❊①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❚❤❡♦r② ♦❢ ❏r✐❝❡ ▼♦✈❡♠❡♥ts✳✑
❊❝♦♥♦♠❡tr✐❝❛ ✷✾✱ ✸✿ ✭✶✾✻✶✮ ✸✶✺✕✸✸✺✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✶✻ ❛♥❞ ✷✽ ✳✮
◆❛❣❡❧✱ ❊✳ ❚❤❡ str✉❝t✉r❡ ♦❢ s❝✐❡♥❝❡✿ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s ✐♥ t❤❡ ❧♦❣✐❝ ♦❢ s❝✐❡♥t✐✜❝
❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥✳ ❍❛r❝♦✉rt✱ ❇r❛❝❡ ✫ ❲ ♦r❧❞✱ ✶✾✻✶✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❜♦♦❦s✳❣♦♦❣❧❡✳❢r✴❜♦♦❦s❄
✐❞❂❢ș❤❊❆❆❆❆ș❆❆❏ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✶ ✳✮
◆❛s❤✱ ❏r✳✱ ❏♦❤♥ ❋✳ ✏❚❤❡ ❇❛r❣❛✐♥✐♥❣ ❏r♦❜❧❡♠✳✑ ❊❝♦♥♦♠❡tr✐❝❛ ✶✽✿ ✭✶✾✺✵✮ ✶✺✺✕✶✻✷✳
✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✶✼✺ ✳✮

❇✐❜❧✐♦❣r❛♣❤② ✷✶✼
❖❢❡❦✱ ❊❧✐✱ ❛♥❞ ▼❛tt❤❡✇ ❘✐❝❤❛r❞s♦♥✳ ✏❉♦t❈♦♠ ▼❛♥✐❛✿ ❚❤❡ ❘✐s❡ ❛♥❞ ❋ ❛❧❧ ♦❢ ș♥t❡r♥❡t
❙t♦❝❦ ❍r✐❝❡s✳✑ ◆❇❊❘ ❲ ♦r❦✐♥❣ ❍❛♣❡rs ✽✻✸✵✱ ◆❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❇✉r❡❛✉ ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❘❡✲
s❡❛r❝❤✱ ș♥❝✱ ✷✵✵✶✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴♣✴♥❜r✴♥❜❡r✇♦✴✽✻✸✵✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞
♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✽ ✳✮
❖✬❍❛r❛✱ ▼✳ ▼❛r❦❡t ▼✐❝r♦str✉❝t✉r❡ ❚❤❡♦r②✳ ❇❧❛❝❦✇❡❧❧ ❇✉s✐♥❡ss✳ ❏♦❤♥ ❲✐❧❡② ✫ ❙♦♥s✱
✶✾✾✽✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❜♦♦❦s✳❣♦♦❣❧❡✳❢r✴❜♦♦❦s❄✐❞❂✉❞❳❥❘✷❉❣✼❜✇❈ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✹✽ ✳✮
❍❛r❛♥❥❛♣❡✱ ❘✳✱ ❛♥❞ ❆✳ ❙❛❞❛♥❛♥❞✳ ▼✉❧t✐✲❆❣❡♥t ❙②st❡♠s ❢♦r ❍❡❛❧t❤❝❛r❡ ❙✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥
❛♥❞ ▼♦❞❡❧✐♥❣✿ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ❢♦r ❙②st❡♠ ș♠♣r♦✈❡♠❡♥t✳ ❍r❡♠✐❡r ❘❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡ ❙♦✉r❝❡✳
▼❡❞✐❝❛❧ ș♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❙❝✐❡♥❝❡ ❘❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡✱ ✷✵✶✵✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❜♦♦❦s✳❣♦♦❣❧❡✳❢r✴❜♦♦❦s❄
✐❞❂③❝❉✵s❥✷❏✈❈✹❈ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✽ ✳✮
❍❛②③❛♥✲▲❡◆❡st♦✉r✱ ❊❧✐s❡✳ ✏▲❡❛r♥✐♥❣ t♦ ❈❤♦♦s❡ t❤❡ ❘✐❣❤t ș♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ✐♥ ❛♥ ❯♥st❛❜❧❡
❲ ♦r❧❞✿ ❊①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t❛❧ ❊✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ❇❛s❡❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ ❇❛♥❞✐t ❍r♦❜❧❡♠✳✑ ❚ ❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧ ❘❡♣♦rt
✶✵✲✷✽✱ ✇✐ss ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ș♥st✐t✉t❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ❍❛♣❡r✱ ✷✵✶✷✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴ssr♥✳❝♦♠✴❛❜str❛❝t❂
✶✻✷✽✻✺✼ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✶✼✽ ✳✮
❘❛❜❡rt♦✱ ▼✳✱ ❙✳ ❈✐♥❝♦tt✐✱ ❈✳ ❉♦s❡✱ ❙✳ ▼✳ ❋ ♦❝❛r❞✐✱ ❛♥❞ ▼✳ ▼❛r❝❤❡s✐✳ ✏❍r✐❝❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥
✐♥ ❛♥ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✿ ❧✐♠✐t ♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦ ✈❡rs✉s ♠❛t❝❤✐♥❣ ♦❢ s✉♣♣❧② ❛♥❞ ❞❡♠❛♥❞✳✑
ș♥ ◆♦♥❧✐♥❡❛r ❉②♥❛♠✐❝s ❛♥❞ ❍❡t❡r♦❣❡♥♦✉s ș♥t❡r❛❝t✐♥❣ ❆❣❡♥ts✱ ❡❞✐t❡❞ ❜② ❚✳ ▲✉①✱
❙✳ ❘❡✐t③✱ ❛♥❞ ❊✳ ❙❛♠❛♥✐❞♦✉✱ ❙♣r✐♥❣❡r✲❱ ❡r❧❛❣✱ ❇❡r❧✐♥✱ ✷✵✵✺✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✼✹ ✳✮
❘❛❜❡rt♦✱ ▼❛r❝♦✱ ❙✐❧✈ ❛♥♦ ❈✐♥❝♦tt✐✱ ❙❡r❣✐♦ ▼✳ ❋ ♦❝❛r❞✐✱ ❛♥❞ ▼✐❝❤❡❧❡ ▼❛r❝❤❡s✐✳
✏❆❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✳✑ ❍❤②s✐❝❛ ❆✿ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ▼❡❝❤❛♥✐❝s
❛♥❞ ✐ts ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ✷✾✾✱ ✶✲✷✿ ✭✷✵✵✶✮ ✸✶✾✕✸✷✼✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✇✇✇✳s❝✐❡♥❝❡❞✐r❡❝t✳❝♦♠✴
s❝✐❡♥❝❡✴❛rt✐❝❧❡✴❇✻❚❱●✲ ✹✹✼▼❳❲✻✲ ✶❍✴✶✴✾✾✸❜✺✷❜✼✺✹✾✷✻❛✹❛✼✼✸✷❡✾❞✹✻❝❢✾✽✵✸❞ ✳
✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✻✸ ❛♥❞ ✼✹ ✳✮
❘❛❞♥❡r✱ ❘♦② ✳ ✏❊①✐st❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❊q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ♦❢ ❍❧❛♥s✱ ❍r✐❝❡s✱ ❛♥❞ ❍r✐❝❡ ❊①♣❡❝✲
t❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ❛ ❙❡q✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ▼❛r❦❡ts✳✑ ❊❝♦♥♦♠❡tr✐❝❛ ✹✵✱ ✷✿ ✭✶✾✼✷✮ ✷✽✾✕
✸✵✸✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❊❝♦♥❲❛♣❡rs✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❘❡❲❊❝✿❡❝♠✿❡♠❡tr♣✿✈✿✹✵✿②✿✶✾✼✷✿✐✿✷✿♣✿
✷✽✾✲ ✸✵✸ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✷✽ ✳✮
❘❛♠♥❛t❤✱ ❙✉♥❞❛r❡s❤✱ ❙t❡✈❡ ❘♦❝❦✱ ❛♥❞ ❍❤✐❧✐♣ ❇✳ ❙❤❛♥❡✳ ✏❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❆♥❛❧②sts✬ ❋ ♦r❡✲
❝❛sts ❛♥❞ ❙t♦❝❦ ❘❡❝♦♠♠❡♥❞❛t✐♦♥s✿ ❆ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤✳✑ ❋ ♦✉♥❞❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞
❚ r❡♥❞s ✐♥ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✷✱ ✹✿ ✭✷✵✵✻✮ ✸✶✶ ✕ ✹✷✶✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✺ ✳✮
❘✳❊✱ ❍♦❞❡❧✳ ❆♥ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ t♦ ♠❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❧♦❣✐❝✳ ❍❲❙ ❍✉❜❧✐s❤✐♥❣ ❈♦♠♣❛♥② ✱
❇♦st♦♥✱ ✶✾✾✺✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✼✻ ✳✮
❘✉❜✐♥st❡✐♥✱ ▼❛r❦ ❊✳ ✏ ❘❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ▼❛r❦❡ts✿ ❨ ❡s ♦r ◆♦❄ ❚❤❡ ❆✣r♠❛t✐✈❡ ❈❛s❡✳✑
❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❆♥❛❧②sts ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ✺✼✱ ✸✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✷✺ ✳✮
❙✳✱ ❉✉♣r❡ ❉✳ ●✐r❡r❞✲❍♦t✐♥ ș✳ ❏✐♠❡♥❡③✲●❛r❝❡s✱ ❛♥❞ ▲♦✉✈❡t ❍ ✳ ✏ș♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♥♦t❛✲
t✐♦♥ ❡t❤✐q✉❡ s✉r ❧✬❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ❞✉ ♣r✐① ❞❡s ❛❝t✐♦♥s ✿ ✉♥ ♠♦❞❡❧❡ t❤❡♦r✐q✉❡✳✑ ❘❡✈✉❡
❊❝♦♥♦♠✐q✉❡ ✻✵✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✾ ✳✮

✷✶✽ ❇✐❜❧✐♦❣r❛♣❤ ②
❙❛ ✈ ❛❣❡✱ ▲✳ ❏✳ ❚❤❡ ❢♦✉♥❞❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ st❛t✐st✐❝s✳ ❏♦❤♥ ❲✐❧❡② ❛♥❞ ❙♦♥s✱ ✶✾✺✹✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥
♣❛❣❡ ✷✺ ✳✮
❙❤❛r♠❛✱ ❱✳ ❍❡r❞✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ▼❛r❦ ❡ts ❉✉r✐♥❣ ș♥ t❡r♥❡t ❇✉❜❜❧❡✳ ❱❉▼ ✿✉❜❧✐s❤✐♥❣✱
✷✵✵✾✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❜♦♦❦s✳❣♦♦❣❧❡✳❢r✴❜♦♦❦s❄✐❞❂◆❨❢❨✉✇❆❆❈❆❆❏ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✺ ✳✮
❙❤❛r♣ ❡✱ ❲✐❧❧✐❛♠ ❋✳ ✏❈❛♣✐t❛❧ ❆ss❡t ✿r✐❝❡s✿ ❆ ❚❤❡♦r② ❖❢ ▼❛r❦ ❡t ❊q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ❯♥❞❡r
❈♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s ❖❢ ❘✐s❦✳✑ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✶✾✱ ✸✿ ✭✶✾✻✹✮ ✹✷✺✕✹✹✷✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳
r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❛✴❜❧❛✴❥❢✐♥❛♥✴✈✶✾②✶✾✻✹✐✸♣✹✷✺✲ ✹✹✷✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✶✺ ✱ ✸✵ ✱
✹✼ ❛♥❞ ✶✽✺ ✳✮
❙❤❡♥✱ ❩❤❡♥✱ ❑❛✐ ❲ ❛♥❣✱ ❛♥❞ ❋ ❡♥❣❤ ✉❛ ❩❤ ✉✳ ✏❆❣❡♥ t✲❜❛s❡❞ tr❛✣❝ s✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ tr❛✣❝
s✐❣♥❛❧ t✐♠✐♥❣ ♦♣t✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ●✿❯✳✑ ș♥ ș♥ t❡❧❧✐❣❡♥ t ❚ r❛♥s♣ ♦rt❛t✐♦♥ ❙②st❡♠s
✭ș❚❙❈✮✱ ✷✵✶✶ ✶✹t❤ ș♥ t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ș❊❊❊ ❈♦♥❢❡r❡♥❝❡ ♦♥✳ ✷✵✶✶✱ ✶✹✺ ✕✶✺✵✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥
♣❛❣❡ ✺✽ ✳✮
❙❤✐❧❧❡r✱ ❘♦❜ ❡rt ❏✳ ✏❉♦ ❙t♦ ❝ ❦ ✿r✐❝❡s ▼♦ ✈ ❡ ❚ ♦ ♦ ▼✉❝ ❤ t♦ ❜ ❡ ❏✉st✐✜❡❞ ❜ ② ❙✉❜s❡q✉❡♥ t
❈❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ ❉✐✈✐❞❡♥❞s❄✑ ❲ ♦r❦✐♥❣ ✿ ❛♣ ❡r ✹✺✻✱ ◆❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❇✉r❡❛✉ ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❘❡✲
s❡❛r❝ ❤✱ ✶✾✽✵✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✇✇✇✳♥❜❡r✳♦r❣✴♣❛♣❡rs✴✇✵✹✺✻ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✹✵ ❛♥❞ ✶✸✶ ✳✮
❙✐❧✈ ❡r✱ ◆✳ ❚❤❡ ❙✐❣♥❛❧ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ◆♦✐s❡✿ ❲❤ ② ❙♦ ▼❛♥ ② ✿r❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥s ❋ ❛✐❧✲❜✉t ❙♦♠❡ ❉♦♥✬t✳
✿ ❡♥❣✉✐♥ ●r♦✉♣ ❯❙✱ ✷✵✶✷✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❜♦♦❦s✳❣♦♦❣❧❡✳❢r✴❜♦♦❦s❄✐❞❂❙ș✲ ❱q❆❚✹❴❤❨❈ ✳
✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✹✻ ✳✮
❙♠❛❧❞✐♥♦✱ ✿ ❛✉❧✱ ❈②♥ t❤✐❛ ✿✐❝ ❦ ❡tt✱ ❏❡✛r❡② ❙❤❡r♠❛♥✱ ❛♥❞ ❏❡✛r❡② ❙❝ ❤❛♥❦✳ ✏❆♥ ❆❣❡♥ t✲
❇❛s❡❞ ▼♦ ❞❡❧ ♦❢ ❙♦ ❝✐❛❧ ș❞❡♥ t✐t ② ❉②♥❛♠✐❝s✳✑ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❆rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ❙♦ ❝✐❡t✐❡s ❛♥❞
❙♦ ❝✐❛❧ ❙✐♠ ✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✶✺✱ ✹✿ ✭✷✵✶✷✮ ✼✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❥❛sss✳s♦❝✳s✉rr❡②✳❛❝✳✉❦✴✶✺✴✹✴✼✳
❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✽ ✳✮
❙t❛♥❝✐✉✲❱✐③✐t❡✉✱ ▲✉❝✐❛♥❉❛♥✐❡❧✳ ✏❚❤❡ s❤❛r❦ ❣❛♠❡✿ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ✇✐t❤ ❜ ♦✉♥❞❡❞ r❛t✐♦✲
♥❛❧✐t ② ✳✑ ș♥ ▼❛♥❛❣✐♥❣ ▼❛r❦ ❡t ❈♦♠♣❧❡①✐t ②✱ ❡❞✐t❡❞ ❜ ② ❆♥❞r❡❛ ❚ ❡❣❧✐♦✱ ❙✐♠♦♥❡ ❆❧✲
❢❛r❛♥♦✱ ❊✈ ❛ ❈❛♠❛❝ ❤♦✲❈✉❡♥❛✱ ❛♥❞ ▼✐❣✉❡❧ ●✐♥és✲❱✐❧❛r✱ ❙♣r✐♥❣❡r ❇❡r❧✐♥ ❍❡✐❞❡❧❜ ❡r❣✱
✷✵✶✸✱ ✈ ♦❧✉♠❡ ✻✻✷ ♦❢ ▲❡❝t✉r❡ ◆♦t❡s ✐♥ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ❛♥❞ ▼❛t❤❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧ ❙②st❡♠s✱ ✶✵✸✕
✶✶✶✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❞①✳❞♦✐✳♦r❣✴✶✵✳✶✵✵✼✴✾✼✽✲ ✸✲ ✻✹✷✲ ✸✶✸✵✶✲ ✶❴✾ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✶✾✷ ✳✮
❙t✐❣❧✐t③✱ ❏♦s❡♣❤ ❊✳ ✏❙②♠♣ ♦s✐✉♠ ♦♥ ❇✉❜❜❧❡s✳✑ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✿ ❡rs♣ ❡❝t✐✈ ❡s
✹✱ ✷✿ ✭✶✾✾✵✮ ✶✸✕✶✽✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❊❝♦♥✉❛♣❡rs✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❘❡✉❊❝✿❛❡❛✿❥❡❝♣❡r✿✈✿✹✿②✿
✶✾✾✵✿✐✿✷✿♣✿✶✸✲ ✶✽ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✹✹ ✳✮
❙✉❜r❛❤♠❛♥ ② ❛♠✱ ❆ ✈ ❛♥✐❞❤❛r✳ ✏❇❡❤❛ ✈✐♦✉r❛❧ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡✿ ❆ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ❛♥❞ ❙②♥ t❤❡s✐s✳✑
❊✉r♦♣ ❡❛♥ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ▼❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥ t ✶✹✱ ✶✿ ✭✷✵✵✽✮ ✶✷✕✷✾✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳
♦r❣✴❛✴❜❧❛✴❡✉❢♠❛♥✴✈✶✹②✷✵✵✽✐✶♣✶✷✲ ✷✾✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✵ ✳✮
❙✈ ❡♥s♦♥✱ ❖❧❛✳ ✏❆r❡ ✇ ❡ ❛❧❧ ❧❡ss r✐s❦② ❛♥❞ ♠♦r❡ s❦✐❧❧❢✉❧ t❤❛♥ ♦✉r ❢❡❧❧♦ ✇ ❞r✐✈ ❡rs❄✑
❆ ❝t❛ ✿s②❝ ❤♦❧♦❣✐❝❛ ✹✼✱ ✷✿ ✭✶✾✽✶✮ ✶✹✸✕✶✹✽✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❞①✳❞♦✐✳♦r❣✴✶✵✳✶✵✶✻✴
✵✵✵✶✲ ✻✾✶✽✭✽✶✮✾✵✵✵✺✲ ✻ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✹✵ ✳✮

❇✐❜❧✐♦❣r❛♣❤② ✷✶✾
❚ ❡s❢❛ts✐♦♥✱ ▲❡✐❣❤✳ ✏❆❣❡♥t✲❇❛s❡❞ ❈♦♠♣✉t❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s✿ ❆ ❈♦♥str✉❝t✐✈❡ ❆♣✲
♣r♦❛❝❤ t♦ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❚❤❡♦r② ✳✑ ș♥ ❍❛♥❞❜♦♦❦ ♦❢ ❈♦♠♣✉t❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s✱ ❡❞✐t❡❞
❜② ▲❡✐❣❤ ❚ ❡s❢❛ts✐♦♥✱ ❛♥❞ ❑❡♥♥❡t❤ ▲✳ ❏✉❞❞✱ ❊❧s❡✈✐❡r✱ ✷✵✵✻❛✱ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ✷ ♦❢ ❍❛♥❞❜♦♦❦
♦❢ ❈♦♠♣✉t❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s✱ ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✶✻✱ ✽✸✶✕✽✽✵✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴
❤✴❡❡❡✴❤❡❝❝❤♣✴✷✲ ✶✻✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✻✶ ❛♥❞ ✽✹ ✳✮
✳ ✏❆❣❡♥t✲❇❛s❡❞ ❈♦♠♣✉t❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ▼♦❞❡❧✐♥❣ ❆♥❞ ▼❛❝r♦❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s✳✑ ❙t❛✛ ●❡♥✲
❡r❛❧ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ❙❛♣❡rs ✶✷✹✵✷✱ ș♦✇❛ ❙t❛t❡ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ✱ ❉❡♣❛rt♠❡♥t ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s✱
✷✵✵✻❜✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✺✾ ✳✮
❚❤✉r♥❡r✱ ❙✳✱ ❏✳❉✳ ❋ ❛r♠❡r✱ ❛♥❞ ❏✳ ●❡❛♥❛❦♦♣❧♦s✳ ✏▲❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ❝❛✉s❡s ❢❛t t❛✐❧s ❛♥❞ ❝❧✉s✲
t❡r❡❞ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ✳✑ ◗✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❡ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✶✷✿ ✭✷✵✶✷✮ ✻✾✺✕✼✵✼✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✹✼
❛♥❞ ✼✶ ✳✮
❚ ♦❜✐♥✱ ❏❛♠❡s✳ ✏▲✐q✉✐❞✐t② ❙r❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡ ❛s ❇❡❤❛✈✐♦r ❚ ♦✇❛r❞s ❘✐s❦✳✑ ❈♦✇❧❡s ❋ ♦✉♥❞❛✲
t✐♦♥ ❉✐s❝✉ss✐♦♥ ❙❛♣❡rs ✶✹✱ ❈♦✇❧❡s ❋ ♦✉♥❞❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✐♥ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s✱ ❨ ❛❧❡
❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ✱ ✶✾✺✻✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✐❞❡❛s✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴♣✴❝✇❧✴❝✇❧❞♣♣✴✶✹✳❤t♠❧ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥
♣❛❣❡ ✸✵ ✳✮
❱ ❛❧❞❡③✱ ❙✳ ❆♥ ș♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ t♦ ●❧♦❜❛❧ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ▼❛r❦❡ts✱ ❋✐❢t❤ ❊❞✐t✐♦♥✳ ❙❛❧❣r❛✈❡
▼❛❝♠✐❧❧❛♥✱ ✷✵✵✼✳ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❜♦♦❦s✳❣♦♦❣❧❡✳❝♦♠✳❛✉✴❜♦♦❦s❄✐❞❂❴▼③❊◗❣❆❆❈❆❆❏ ✳
✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✶✹ ✳✮
❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦♦✱ ș✳✱ ❖✳ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✱ ❛♥❞ ❙ ✳ ▼❛t❤✐❡✉✳ ✏❆❣❡♥t✬s ♠✐♥✐♠❛❧ ✐♥t❡❧❧✐❣❡♥❝❡ ❝❛❧✐❜r❛✲
t✐♦♥ ❢♦r r❡❛❧✐st✐❝ ♠❛r❦❡t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s✳✑ ❙r♦❣r❡ss ✐♥ ❆rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ✸✕✶✹✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞
♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✻✶ ✱ ✻✷ ❛♥❞ ✻✸ ✳✮
❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦♦✱ ș✳✱ ❙ ✳ ▼❛t❤✐❡✉✱ ❛♥❞ ❖✳ ❇r❛♥❞♦✉② ✳ ✏❑❡② ♣♦✐♥ts ❢♦r r❡❛❧✐st✐❝ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s✳✑ ❙r♦❝❡❡❞✐♥❣s ♦❢ ș❈❆❆❘ ❚ ✭✸r❞ ❝♦♥❢✳✮ ✷✿ ✭✷✵✶✶✮ ✼✹✕
✽✸✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✻✶ ❛♥❞ ✻✷ ✳✮
❱ ❡r②③❤❡♥❦♦✱ șr②♥❛✳ ✏❆ r❡❡①❛♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠♦❞❡r♥ ✜♥❛♥❝❡ ✐ss✉❡s ✉s✐♥❣ ❆rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ▼❛r✲
❦❡t ❋ r❛♠❡✇♦r❦s✳✑ ✷✵✶✷✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡s ✺✻ ✱ ✺✾ ❛♥❞ ✻✸ ✳✮
❲✐❧❧✐❛♠s✱ ❏✳❇✳ ❚❤❡ t❤❡♦r② ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ✈ ❛❧✉❡✳ ❍❛r✈ ❛r❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ❙r❡ss✱ ✶✾✸✽✳
❤tt♣✿✴✴❜♦♦❦s✳❣♦♦❣❧❡✳❢r✴❜♦♦❦s❄✐❞❂❝ș❤❈❆❆❆❆ș❆❆❏ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✸✵ ✳✮
❨ ❛♥✱ ❍♦♥❣❥✉♥✳ ◆❛t✉r❛❧ ❙❡❧❡❝t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ▼❛r❦❡ts✿ ❉♦❡s ✐t ❲ ♦r❦❄ ✷✵✵✽✳ ❤tt♣✿
✴✴❊❝♦♥P❛♣❡rs✳r❡♣❡❝✳♦r❣✴❘❡P❊❝✿②s♠✿s♦♠✇r❦✿❛♠③✷✻✹✽ ✳ ✭❈✐t❡❞ ♦♥ ♣❛❣❡ ✷✾ ✳✮

❚❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ❜✐❛s❡s ♦♥ t❤❡ ❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r✐❝❡s ✐♥
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts
❆❜str❛❝t✿ ❲ ❡ ❝♦♥str✉❝t ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡r s✐♠✉❧❛t❡❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t✳
❚ r❛❞✐♥❣ ✐♥ t❤✐s ♠❛r❦❡t ✐s ♥♦t ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✉s✳ ❚❤❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡ ✐s ❢♦r♠❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ❧✐♠✐t✲
♦r❞❡r ❜♦♦❦✳ ❚❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧❧❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs r❡❝❡✐✈❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ t❤❡② ❛tt❡♠♣t
t♦ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ t❤❡✐r ✇❡❛❧t❤✳ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥t tr❛❞❡rs✱ ❢r♦♠ ♥♦✐s❡ t♦ ❝❤❛rt✐st ❛♥❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞✱
❝♦❡①✐st ✐♥ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❲ ❡ s❤♦✇ ❤♦✇ st②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❢♦r♠❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ♣r❡s✲
❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❝❤❛rt✐sts ♦r ❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❧❛❣ ✐♥ ✐♥✈❡st♦r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✳ Pr✐❝❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s ❝❛♥ ❛r✐s❡
✇❤❡♥ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r✐❝❡s ❛r❡ ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡❞ ❜② t❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧ tr❛❞❡rs✳ ș♥t❡r❡st✐♥❣❧② ✇❡ s❤♦✇ t❤❛t
✇❡❧❧ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥✈❡st♦rs ❝❛♥ ❡❛r♥ ♠♦r❡ ✐❢ t❤❡ ❛❞♦♣t✱ ✐♥ s♣❡❝✐❛❧ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥s✱ ❛ t❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧
str❛t❡❣② ✳ ❯s✐♥❣ ♦✉r r❡s✉❧ts ✇❡ ♣r♦♣♦s❡ ❛ ♥❡✇ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❢♦r ♠❛r❦❡t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ❝❛❧❧❡❞
✧s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡ts✧✳ ▼♦r❡♦✈❡r✱ ✇❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ t❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t ♦❢ ✧str❛t❡❣②✲str♦♥❣
❡✣❝✐❡♥t ♠❛r❦❡ts✧✳
❑❡②✇♦r❞s✿ ❝♦♠♣✉t❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✱ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡ts✱ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✱ ♠✉❧t✐✲❛❣❡♥t✱ s✐♠✉❧❛✲
t✐♦♥✱ ❜✉❜❜❧❡s✱ st②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝ts✱ r✐s❦ ♠❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t