Project Bmv

Project BMV

Companies:

1. SIF Transilvania (I C)

2. Petrom (I C)

3. Alro Slatina (IC)

4. Boromir Prod SA Buzau (II C)

5. Aerostar Bacau (II C)

SIF Transilvania

1.1Company description

SIF Transilvania SA (Societatea de Investitii Financiare Transilvania SA) is a Romania-based closed-end fund. Its main activities focus on the administration of shares, management of its own portfolio of stocks and shares, as well as investment and brokerage activities. As of 2009, the Company owns shares in 265 companies. These companies are active in such fields as tourism, banking, machine building, food and beverage, building, finance, chemical, industrial and construction sector, agriculture and pisciculture, transportation and others.

The stocks deposits of SIF Transilvania SA are kept by ING Bank NV Amsterdam, through its branch office in Bucharest. SIF Transilvania SA is a full member of the European Venture Capital Association (EVCA), Europe's most influential private equity and venture capital organization.

For any investment it makes, SIF Transilvania provides professionals working on each investment, having a high level of experience and industry insight. In addition, SIF Transilvania has got a broad network of contacts and resources that complements its own capabilities that can bring added value to its portfolio companies.

Due to its solid resources, SIF Transilvania is able to provide flexible financing of investment projects. It may finance projects as a leading investor as well as a member of a consortium.

The company also employs about 80 professionals in the capital market, trained in Romanian and foreign prestigious institutions.

1.2 Macroeconomic environment

For 2011 the economy of Romania is widely believed to start recovering, yet slowly and not all of the massive drawbacks can be overcome in 2011. Especially the Romanian labor market will remain in a bad shape.

The former level of unemployment in Romania of just some 9.4% is not expected to be reached again before 2014, though a first decrease of 0.3% to 9.1% is expected for 2011. Real wages in Romania experienced a negative growth -1.2% though average gross salaries grew from 1.946 in 2010 to 2.014 lei in 2011. However, the times of double digit growth rates seem to be gone for the next few years when it comes to salaries in Romania.

The GDP of Romania is estimated to grow by 3.6% during 2011, but the former level of 2010 will not be reached before the end of the this year according to the latest CNP estimations. The very same is true for exports from Romania, which have been a main driver of growth during the past years.

Inflation is believed to remain on the low side for Romanian standards, yet still on the high side for overall trends in the EU. The Exchange rate for Romania’s currency is estimated to stabilize at 4.25 RON/EUR, yet this estimate has not remained unchallenged. Several analysts expected the LEU to drop until 4.5 RON/EUR.

1.3 Sectorial perspectives

From the beginning we have to say that the financial sector has a crucial importance in the Romanian Economy. It depends in a high proportion on the interest rate. Another important factor is the high elasticity of the demand from price.

The evolution from the financial sector in 2011 will be quite similar with the one in 2010. This means many competitors that will generate the reducing of the interest on loans.

In the same time the financial sector is influenced by some political decisions. A positive fact in this way is the approval of the seventh installment loan. This will allow to the National Bank to protect the national currency from speculative movements.

1.4 Company perspectives

The main strategic objective of SIF Transilvania is to maximize the profitability of the activity and to manage its portfolio at a high performance. In this way the company established some directions to follow. They distributed their portfolio in distinct strategic categories. This diversity allows them to avoid some risks because no portfolio investment exceeds 10% of its securities and no sector should exceed 15-20% of the securities owned.

Another strategy of SIF Transilvania that may encourage the investors is that they buy securities with no risk and with an increasing market price. The acquisitions are made after complex diagnoses analyses.

Another direction of action that will be followed is to intensify the activity of identifying investment partners and opportunities for SIF Transilvania and to insure the conditions for the investors to identified SIF Transilvania and its assets.

1.5 Financial analyses

1.5.1 The financial indicators

ROE (The return of equity) the comparison is made for the first semester of 2008, 2009 and 2010

ROE = net profit/total liablities

In the first and the second trimester the results are positive but the figures are smaller than the interest rate which shows that the company is not very attractive for investors as it implies high risks and offers low benefits.

b. Net profit the comparison is made for the first trimester of 2008, 2009 and 2010

The figures shows that in the first trimester of 2008 and 2009 the company was profitable but in 2010 it got losses.

c. Earning per share (EPS)

This indicator shows the earnings per shares. It is important because it shows us which is the total amount of money from the net profit that you get according to the number of shares that you have.

d. Return of assets (ROA)

The retune of assets show how profitable a company’s assets are in generating revenue. As the figures shows in 2008 and 2009 the assets generated quite high revenues. We can’t say the same think about the last year.

e. Liquidity ratio

Because the value of this indicator was smaller than 1 the company had a quite high risk of bankruptcy in 2008. In the next two years the situation had improved so in 2010 the company was far away of this risk.

f. The debt ratio

This indicators show a low dept to the equity ratio.

1.5.2 The market value indicators

a. PER (price earning ratio)

Even if this indicator is not quite high at least is positive. In 2008 was higher than 15 shoving that the shares were over evaluated in that period. In 2009 and 2010 they are under evaluated.

b. Free float

As we know no investor is allowed to have more than 1% oh the share of this company for protecting the economy of some specific fields of activity.

c. P/BV (Price per book value)= 0.92 the value is smaller than 1, which means that the stocks are under evaluated

d. DIVY = 5.42 this indicator shows how much did the investors gained from dividends

1.6. Technical analyses

1.6.1 Candles analyses

In 22.10 the hammer candle and the star candle anticipate the reversal of the trend. This reversal doesn’t occur immediately but in the next day. But the increase from the next tree days is just temporary and is determined by the mandatory takeover offer for a package of shares in the Sembraz Forestry Sibiu.

In the last period the star candle, preceded by a green candle shows that the trend will change again and a decrease will follow. In this case I don’t recommend the investment in SIF Transilvania shares.

1.6.2 Line analyze

The pricing in the upper side of the Bollinger band by the closing price line shows that the increasing tendency will continue until the line will penetrate le lowest side. The big distance between MACD line and the trigger line from 03.10 showed strong signals to buy. But this distance became smaller and smaller, which means that in short time from up to down and the shares will have to be sold. The position of the closing price line above the SMA and EMA shows that the price of the shares is overestimated and it will decrease. In these conditions I don’t recommend the acquisitions of SIF Transilvania shares in the close future.

2.Petrom

2.1 Company description

Petrom is largest oil and gas producer in South Eastern Europe. After privatization in 2004, Petrom began a comprehensive modernization process to become more powerful, competitive and profitable. Petrom appreciated that by initiating the development with an overhaul of their communication systems they would experience real-time changes and receive detailed statistical information instantly.

Information flow is critical for large companies such as Petrom due to substantial distances between their commercial facilities. So they supported business processes while increasing operational efficiency and they improve information flow. The increased investments volume, the continuation of modernization projects and initiation of new ones, local and international field experience, permanent preoccupation towards employees, customers and community, professionalism and determination made that the first results become visible. Petrom has the largest market value in Romania and the largest investment program in the Romanian energy sector. Also Petrom is the company with the largest contribution to the state budget; approximately 45% of its EBITDA goes to state institutions as taxes, contributions and dividends.
Petrom is a rising company, with an obvious potential for success, which is already bringing benefits for shareholders, community and environment and the Romanian economy in general, through its activities and through its contribution to the development of the Romanian business environment. One of Petrom’s main objectives is to become not only the largest but also the most successful company in Romania, a true role model for our society.

Sectorial perspectives

It is assumed that in 2011 the gas and oil price will remain volatile. The market products from the refinery is expected to maintain unfavorable during 2011, with a very low refining margins, as an effect at the excess capacity that will characterize the industry, both in Romania and throughout Europe.
The level of sales and margins in the business marketing is expected to stay pressure until signs of revival economic will become more visible.

2.3. Company perspectives

To protect a part of the company’s cash flow Petrom ensured on the hedging market against some specific risks.

In the last five years Petrom have invested, on average, about 1 billion euro per year to ensure
sustainable business development and, for achieve the growth potential that they proposed they will
investment more. According to this, they intend to invest almost 1.5 billion in the next years. Until now they optimized the cash flow management and have provided a solid basis for financing to achieve their strategic goals. To ensure the necessary funds to finance the investment program Petrom plan to seek new sources of capital in 2011.

In Exploration and Production segment to cope with adverse economic environment
and volatility of international prices for crude oil, Petrom will continue to focus on strict management
cost and organizational optimization.

Between 2010 and 2014 Petrom will investment 750 million euro in modernization works. The main purpose of this upgrading is to enable the processing of full domestic crude production.Listen

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2.4. Financial analyses

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2.4. Financial analyses

2.4.1 The financial indicators

a. ROE (The return of equity) the comparison is made for the first semester of 2008, 2009 and 2010

ROE = net profit/total liabilities

In all the years the results are positive and smaller than the interest rate which shows that the company is not very attractive for investors as it implies high risks and offers low benefits.

b. Net profit . The comparison is made for the first semester of 2008, 2009 and 2010

The figures show that the company get profit in all the years.

c. Earning per share (EPS)

This indicator shows the earnings per shares. It is important because it shows us how is the total amount of the net profit that you get on the number of shares that you have.

d. Return of assets (ROA)

The retune of assets show how profitable a company’s assets are in generating revenue. As the figures shows the company’s assets generated profit in all the years. It is quite predictable if we think that is about oil.

e. Liquidity ratio

Because the value of this indicator was never smaller than 1 we know that the company is not threaten with the bankruptcy.

f. The debt ratio

This indicator shows a low dept to the equity ratio.

2.4.2 The market value indicators

a. PER (price earning ratio)

In 2009 the PER was higher than 15 so the shares were over evaluated. In 2008 and 2010 they were under evaluated.

b. Free float

The percentage owned by others is quite small, by only 8% which means that they have no power in the company and there is no free float.

c. P/BV 10.11.2011= 1.42 the value is higher than 1, which means that the stocks are over evaluated

d. DIVY 10.11.2011 = 0 This indicator shows that the investors didn’t get any money from dividends.

2.5. Tehnical analyses

2.5.1 Candles analyses

The increases in the price of oil from the last period generated high increase f the Petrom`s share price. Only in 29.12 the figures slows down because of the public protest of some driver who blocked a few Gas stations from Bucharest. The star candle from 30.12 shows that the trend will change. The price of Petrom`s shares had the highest value from the last three months in 06.07 when The Owner Of OMV Group announced his intention of expanding the company portfolio in Tunisia by acquiring local branches. Even if in the last day the price decrease I believe is just because of other protests happened in that day. So I recommend the investment in Petrom shares in the next period.

2.5.2 Linear analyses

The closing price line penetrates the bottom of the Bollinger Band in 26.11. This anticipate de the same phenomena but in the superior part from 23.10. The same thing happens consecutive in 04. and 06.12. showing that the increasing trend will continue. This prediction is also supported by the high distance between MACD line and the trigger line which shows strong signals to buy. The positions of the closing price line above SMA and EMA shows that the share price is overestimated and a decrease is going to come. So I don’t recommend the investment in Petrom share in the next period.

3. Alro Slatina

3.1 Company description

Alro is the largest aluminum smelter in Central and Eastern Europe . Alro is one of Romania’s largest companies with an important contribution to the local and national economic development. The company is part of the 7th largest aluminum producer worldwide, Vimetco NV, which has operations in Romania, China and Sierra Leone. Alro's shares are traded on the Bucharest Stock Exchange.

In 2005, Alro, became one of the first companies in Romania to receive an Environmental Authorization for more than ten years running, in recognition of its strong long-term investment plan in environmental projects. The Environmental Authorization certifies that all the emissions created by the Company are in full compliance with European Union standards.

Through investment in new technologies, maintenance, infrastructure and employee training, the Company also continuously strives to improve labour conditions. Alro’s employees are optimally equipped with all necessary protection equipment and attend ongoing training programs to ensure safety on the job. The Company is developing a system of occupational trauma prevention and early identification and elimination of occupational hazards and risks involving broad staff participation and use of state-of-the-art methods. The Company seeks to ensure that work conditions at its facilities  are in compliance with the applicable international standards.

Alro has also developed programs for the automatic monitoring of environmental impact factors, in cooperation with the Governmental Environmental Protection Agency and Public Health Directorate. An environmental protection officer was appointed for each of the Company’s divisions.

3.2 Sectorial perspectives

Alumina and energy are the main contributors to aluminium production costs. Smelters with captive sources of alumina and access to cheaper energy will continue to dominate the lower region of the cost curve. This has prompted producers to place more emphasis on vertical integration and increasing levels of consolidation, as well as modernizations to improve production efficiency in the coming years.

The primary drivers for higher long-term forecast metal prices are sustained higher capex costs across the production chain, from bauxite mine development through to refining and smelting, and higher operating costs. Lower energy consumption, longer cell life, lower raw materials consumption and meeting environmental regulations are critical drivers for improving and developing smelting technologies.

In recent years, costs have been inflated for all inputs. While the prices of the key external inputs – alumina, electricity, labour and carbon (coke and pitch) – are the principal cost drivers, several internal technological factors are very important because they control labour and energy efficiencies. Operating expenditure is also significantly influenced by alumina quality, anode raw materials, country infrastructure, transport logistics, local equipment/machine suppliers and environmental legislation.

Our Aluminium Smelter Cost Report covers operational data over a 10-year time span, representing more than 94% of world output. The multi-volume analysis estimates production costs in 37 countries, including many of the major facilities around the world. Cost estimates, covering the production process from raw materials consumption to either concentrate or finished metal are provided.

3.3 Company perspectives

Over the past five years Alro has invested approximately USD 245 million in production modernization and development, including environmental and work safety improvements. As a result of these investments, Alro almost doubled its production of cast aluminum in 6 years. Alro intends to double its flat rolled product sales from until 2011.

Alro replaced wet-fluoride-capture technology with dry-gas treatment technology, thereby increasing the gas-capture rate from 65% to over 99%. Furthermore, all exhaust gases comply with the industry best practice standard. Greenhouse gas emissions have been more than quartered. The Company also built Romania’s first ecological waste dump and halted the use of asbestos at the smelter several years ago.

3. 4 The financial analyze

3.4.1 The financial indicators

a. ROE (The return of equity) the comparison is made for the first semester of 2008, 2009 and 2010

ROE = net profit/total liabilities

In all the years the results are positive and smaller than the interest rate which shows that the company is not very attractive for investors as it implies high risks and offers low benefits.

b. Net profit . The comparison is made for the first semester of 2008, 2009 and 2010

The figures show that the company get profit in all the years.

Earning per share (EPS)

This indicator shows the earnings per shares. It is important because it shows us how is the total amount of the net profit that you get on the number of shares that you have.

Return of assets (ROA)

The retune of assets show how profitable a company’s assets are in generating revenue. As the figures shows the company’s assets generated profit in all these years.

Liquidity ratio

Because the value of this indicator was never smaller than 1 we know that the company is not threaten with the bankruptcy.

The debt ratio

This indicator shows a medium dept to the equity ratio.

3.4.2 The market value indicators

a. PER (price earning ratio)

In 2010 the PER was higher than 15 so the shares were over evaluated. In 2008 and 2009 they were under evaluated.

b. Free float

The percentage owned by others is quite small, by almost 16% which means that they have no power in the company and there is no free float.

c. P/BV 10.11.2011= 1.59 the value is higher than 1, which means that the stocks are over evaluated

d. DIVY 10.11.2011 = 5.86 this indicator shows how much money get the investors from dividends.

3.5Technical analyses

3.5.1 Part I (Candles)

The graphic analysis of this company does not offer to many information about tha company. Market does not follow a trend, making it difficult to predict the course of evolution in the coming days. There are many days when there is no kind of transaction. I can not give a prognosis regarding the evolution of stocks` price in the near future. Even if this company was declared a national priority, the graphic evolution looks purely speculative.

3.3.2 Part II (The graphic line)

From 5.11 until 30.11 the SMA and EMA lines were below the closing price line, showing that the value of the shares was undervalued in that period. Because the Bollinger bands narrowed and the signal line piercing the MACD from the top down I suppose that an upward trend will follow.
In the last period, even if the moving averages lines show that the stock's is under evaluated. The MACD line pierced the trigger line from up to down showing that the share value will decrease in the next period. So I do not recommend investing in shares in Alro next time.

4. Boromir Prod SA Buzau

4.1 Company description

Boromir Prod SA is a Romania-based wheat mill and manufacturer of grain mill products. Its product range encompasses different types of flower, home made bread, French baguettes, cinnamon bread, Graham rolls, multi grain bread, rye bread, pastries, croissants, biscuits, pasta and mustard. The Company operates nationally and has branches in five Romanian counties, Iasi, Buzau, Valcea, Sibiu and Hunedoara.

Boromir Prod SA holds stakes in Eurostar Invest SRL, Hardwood Valcea SA, Bursa Monetar Financiara de Marfuri Sibiu and Geprocon SA Iasi. As of 2009, Boromir Ind SRL holds almost 64% stake in Boromir Prod SA.

4.2 Sectorial perspectives

2010 has been a complicated year for the Romanian agriculture, as the vegetal crops have been affected by adverse weather conditions both qualitatively and quantitatively. However, the wheat production was satisfactory, despite the bad conditions, Romania being ranked second in Europe in terms of harvested corn production. Unfortunately, the area covered by this crop has reduced.

Since the beginning of the year the price of the gas increased several times, these increases affecting the entire food industry, which is a big gas consumer. Due to the increase in gas tariff and the cost of raw materials the food prices increase by 20% this year. Everything depends by each manufacturer's pricing policy and to the economic power of to each trader. It also matters the raw material stocks held by each manufacturer. After their exhaustion, imports will increase and the trader will suffer losses due to currency depreciation. One problem of the global economy is the increasing price of the wheat. In Romania, another important aspect is the necessity to cover the shortfall of over 200,000 tonnes of wheat, which will lead to higher prices for the finial goods, whether imported raw materials or reserve state will be used.

4.3 Company perspectives

Last year, the producer made investments of 12 million euros, half that amount being allocated to factories in Sibiu and Deva for upgrading silos and flour of wheat.
After the purchase of a mill in Slobozia, Boromir invested in croissants factory from Ramnicu Valcea. This is a market segments that will increase the production of the company.
The factory purchased at Slobozia is a strategic investment, because it is situated in the midst of major grain areas of the country and allows more efficient coordination of activities. During holidays, Boromir recorded volumes growth for specialty cakes.
Boromir Group is one of the few companies that export to the European Union cakes, which is a traditional Romanian food. For this reason, the cakes are exported to the Romanian communities in Europe.
  Boromir's competitors are many in the segment of milling and bakery. But company policy to provide quality products assures 10% of the market share.

4. 5. The financial analyze

4..4 .1 The financial indicators

a. ROE (The return of equity) the comparison is made for the trimesters of 2010

ROE = net profit/total liabilities

In all the years the results are positive and smaller than the interest rate which shows that the company is not very attractive for investors as it implies high risks and offers low benefits.

b. Net profit . The comparison is made for the trimesters of 2010

The figures shows that the company got profit in all the years.

c. Return of assets (ROA)

The retune of assets show how profitable a company’s assets are in generating revenue. As the figures shows the company’s assets generated profit in all these years.

d. Liquidity ratio

Because the value of this indicator was never smaller than 1 we know that the company is not threaten with the bankruptcy.

The debt ratio

This indicator shows a medium dept to the equity ratio.

4.4.2 The market value indicators

Free float

The percentage owned by others is by almost 35% which means that they have a medium power in the company. The main power is owned by SC Boromir SA.

c. P/BV 10.11.2011= 0.7 the value is smaller than 1, which means that the stocks are under evaluated

d. DIVY 10.11.2011 = 2.71 This indicator shows how much money get the investors from dividends.

4.5 Technical analyses

4.5. 1 Part I (Candles)

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I believe that you can’t deduce a future trend just from the candles graphic. The highest increases in values of shares have been in the period 7.12-15.12 and in 6.1-7.1 period that coincide with the Christmas holiday. In this period, the high amount of selling for traditional cakes is natural. The last candle, with the hammer form anticipates a change of the trend in a negative one. So I don’t recommend the investment in Boromir shares in the next period.

4.5.2 Part II (The graphic line)

In 30.11 the closing price line pierces the bottom of the Bollinger band, for the second time this month, which shows that the movement will continue until the line will reach the upper band. This happens at the beginning of 2011. The graphic shows strong sales signals in that data and the MACD line penetrated the signal line from above. The high distance between the closing price line and the line of SMA and EMA show that stock price is highly overrated. I think that the trend will change and so I dot recommend investing in Boromir`s shares in the next period of time.

5. Aerostar Bacau

5.1 Company description

Aerostar SA is a Romania-based company, which is active in the fields of military aircraft repairs and upgrades, the production of light aircraft, hydraulic equipment for aviation and piston engines, as well as the production of electronics and other specialized equipment. The Company is organized into five operational divisions: Systems, Special Products, Aviation Products, Support and Commercial Division. The Company's main activities are military and civil aviation maintenance, jet engines overhaul, aero-structures manufacturing, ground defense systems integration, aviation parts machining, avionics and electronics systems integration, civil applications and industrial support. The Company has three subsidiaries, Airpro Consult SRL of Bacau, Foar SRL of Bacau and Aerostar Maintenance International of London. As of December 31, 2009, Iarom SA of Bucharest holds a 71 % stake of Aerostar SA.

The company has engaged in international projects with other companies interested in this field of activity.

From the beginning until now, the company has experienced a continuous growth and became
center technology and know-how for both major programs in the field of defense, as well as for civil aviation.

5.2 Sectorial perspectives

In this industry, the strategic challenges related to the economic performance,
to maintaining on the market by having the most qualitative products, and to the efficiency of the reaction to the global problems of the human society regarding the exhaustible characteristic of the resources.

The speed with which it comes to the operational excellence, innovation and increasing
of the development of information technology and also the development of the human resource,
satisfy the requirements of the markets where the company operates, are challenges of the
highly competitive environment of the global aerospace industry.

5.3 The financial analyze

5.3.1 The financial indicators

a. ROE (The return of equity) the comparison is made for the trimesters of 2010

ROE = net profit/total liabilities

In all the years the results are positive and smaller than the interest rate which shows that the company is not very attractive for investors as it implies high risks and offers low benefits.

b. Net profit . The comparison is made for the first trimester of 2008, 2009 and 2010.

The figures show that the company got profit in all the years. More than that, it seams that it almost doubled from 2009 to 2010 from one year to other.

c. Return of assets (ROA)

The retune of assets show how profitable a company’s assets are in generating revenue. As the figures shows the company’s assets generated profit in all these years.

d. Liquidity ratio

Because the value of this indicator was in al these time higher than 1 we know that the company is not threaten with the bankruptcy.

The debt ratio

This indicator shows a medium dept to the equity ratio.

5.3.2 The market value indicators

a. PER (price earning ratio)

In 2008 the PER was higher than 15 so the shares were over evaluated. In 2009 and 20010 they were under evaluated.

Free float

The percentage owned by others is by almost 17% which means that they have a small power in the company. The main power is owned by SC Iarom SA.

c. P/BV 10.11.2011= 1.63the value is higher than 1, which means that the stocks are over evaluated

d. DIVY 10.11.2011 = 6.48 This indicator shows how much money got the investors from dividends.

5.4 The technical analyze

5.4.1 Part I (Candles)

The graphic analysis of this company does not offer to many information about the company. Market does not follow a trend, making difficult the prediction of the evolution of the course in the next days. There are days when there is no kind of transaction. I can not give a prognosis regarding the evolution of stocks` price in the near future.

5.4.2 Part II The graphic line

In the last month the closing price line priced two times the superior Bollinger band without pricing the inferior one. The closing price line is above to the mobile lines which show that the shares value is over estimated.

The MACD graphic doesn’t give us too many information regarding to the evolution of shares` price in the next future as the MACD line and the trigger line are almost overlapped. I don’t recommend the acquisition of shares until the market doesn’t trace a trend.